WEBVTT - Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper Talks Strait Of Hormuz

0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:06.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:09.880
<v Speaker 2>Stunning events over the weekend America's attack on around years

0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:12.560
<v Speaker 2>in the banking a snow thirty six sound long operation

0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:15.720
<v Speaker 2>named Midnight Hammer. Pilots dropped some of the largest bombs

0:00:15.760 --> 0:00:19.239
<v Speaker 2>in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us now

0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:22.280
<v Speaker 2>to discuss is the former US Defense Secretary Marc Hesper

0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:24.960
<v Speaker 2>Mister Secretary, Welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to

0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:28.480
<v Speaker 2>lean on your experience the work to execute an operation

0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:31.880
<v Speaker 2>like this one and your rarely high level assessment of

0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:32.800
<v Speaker 2>his success.

0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.240
<v Speaker 3>Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms

0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:40.000
<v Speaker 3>of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it

0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:45.440
<v Speaker 3>in drop what fourteen GBU fifty seven's, the submarines launched

0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:49.760
<v Speaker 3>Ta lambs from offshore. We were in out with impunity.

0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:53.240
<v Speaker 3>Nobody was hurt, and I just I think it speaks

0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.720
<v Speaker 3>to the skill and professionalism of the United States military.

0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:57.280
<v Speaker 3>And now I think what we have to do is

0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.320
<v Speaker 3>two things. First of all, get a good battle. Damage

0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:02.360
<v Speaker 3>assessment will take a few days and maybe even then

0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.919
<v Speaker 3>will be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground.

0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:08.480
<v Speaker 3>And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's

0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:11.080
<v Speaker 3>response will be and there are various predictions you guys

0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:12.920
<v Speaker 3>have been talking about it what they may or may

0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.640
<v Speaker 3>not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now.

0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:16.880
<v Speaker 4>If you're advising the president right now, what would you

0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:19.280
<v Speaker 4>say to him in terms of what to expect in

0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:20.880
<v Speaker 4>terms of Tehran's retaliation.

0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:23.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Look, I think there are a range of things

0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:26.720
<v Speaker 3>they could do, you know, were they could first of all,

0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:29.640
<v Speaker 3>use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people

0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.000
<v Speaker 3>and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my

0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.240
<v Speaker 3>time in early twenty twenty, they could launch Asavov missiles

0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.200
<v Speaker 3>against US forces in the Middle East, and there are

0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.479
<v Speaker 3>a couple dozen bases there with over forty thousand US

0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:45.560
<v Speaker 3>service members that they could go after. Third, there could

0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:47.840
<v Speaker 3>be sales here in the United States and globally. Or

0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.240
<v Speaker 3>they can go against American officials as they did a

0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.800
<v Speaker 3>couple of years ago and try that. And then they

0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.920
<v Speaker 3>could go after shipping in the straight of hor moves,

0:01:57.200 --> 0:01:59.560
<v Speaker 3>which I think is unlikely. But to me, those are

0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:01.960
<v Speaker 3>the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in

0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:02.680
<v Speaker 3>the coming days.

0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:05.760
<v Speaker 4>In twenty twenty, when cost them, Sulimani was struck with

0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:08.600
<v Speaker 4>that drone strike. We did see retaliation, but it was

0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:12.360
<v Speaker 4>telegraphed through back channels to the US administration. Do you

0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:14.720
<v Speaker 4>think we could see Iran take that same approach this

0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:15.480
<v Speaker 4>time around?

0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:18.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I think what they have to do is calibrate

0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:21.200
<v Speaker 3>this so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel

0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:24.040
<v Speaker 3>like they've satisfied the military, they've struck back. Tell the

0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:27.040
<v Speaker 3>Iranian people they struck back, but not so much that

0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:31.400
<v Speaker 3>President Trump really upset anti climbs that escalation ladder and

0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:35.760
<v Speaker 3>really hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the

0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.440
<v Speaker 3>missile strikes at Eli Saud, we had Iranians on the

0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:41.359
<v Speaker 3>phone privately reaching out to us saying they were done,

0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.280
<v Speaker 3>they had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, et cetera.

0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:47.320
<v Speaker 3>And that was, of course long before we knew that

0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:52.640
<v Speaker 3>American service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless, they'll

0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:54.839
<v Speaker 3>do a lot of backschilling because they look they can't

0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.440
<v Speaker 3>go much further. This is they're being dismantled, their leadership,

0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:01.960
<v Speaker 3>certainly the military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear

0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:05.560
<v Speaker 3>sites have been pummeled, and so the question is how long,

0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:06.799
<v Speaker 3>how much long can they go on?

0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.840
<v Speaker 4>How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation

0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.760
<v Speaker 4>or strike against the United States If the Supreme Leader

0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:18.079
<v Speaker 4>is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late eighties,

0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.000
<v Speaker 4>and he has no access even to electronic communication.

0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Look, that's the big question is who's in charge,

0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:28.080
<v Speaker 3>how complete, how effective is the chain of command right now?

0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.320
<v Speaker 3>Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to

0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:35.720
<v Speaker 3>the missile forces to launch attacks that may may explain

0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.560
<v Speaker 3>why they haven't responded here in the twenty four to

0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:40.720
<v Speaker 3>thirty six hours since the US strikes on FDA, NA

0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:41.600
<v Speaker 3>Ton's and Esfahan.

0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.520
<v Speaker 1>There's one theory out there, Secretary that this could potentially

0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.920
<v Speaker 1>reignite some of the efforts that are on has made

0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.960
<v Speaker 1>to achieve nuclear status, because that is the only deterrence,

0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.000
<v Speaker 1>And especially with the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium

0:03:56.720 --> 0:04:00.680
<v Speaker 1>missing into action, how concerned are you about that reality

0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:05.960
<v Speaker 1>going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts.

0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:07.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look, you bring up a good point that I

0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:10.240
<v Speaker 3>was going to raise. There's still nine hundred pounds of

0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.880
<v Speaker 3>sixty percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they

0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:17.160
<v Speaker 3>would need for ten nuclear weapons. Out there that we

0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:19.400
<v Speaker 3>don't have control. We don't know where it is. The

0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.760
<v Speaker 3>IE doesn't know where it is, so first of all,

0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:24.080
<v Speaker 3>we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know

0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.960
<v Speaker 3>to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed, and

0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.760
<v Speaker 3>even if it has, it's just a matter of time

0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.200
<v Speaker 3>before they rebuild. Now that at this point probably looks

0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:37.320
<v Speaker 3>more like years than anything else than months. But nonetheless,

0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.080
<v Speaker 3>until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of

0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:42.600
<v Speaker 3>the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself,

0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.560
<v Speaker 3>this is likely an ambition that will grow back over time,

0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:51.200
<v Speaker 3>arguably more energized than before because of what has happened

0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:52.479
<v Speaker 3>here in the last couple weeks.

0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.720
<v Speaker 1>There's a larger point, Secretary that other people have been

0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.680
<v Speaker 1>making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent

0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:01.640
<v Speaker 1>to say Russia to chig now showing what the US

0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:04.680
<v Speaker 1>military can do and is willing to do in the

0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.960
<v Speaker 1>phase of some sort of red line that gets crossed.

0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:09.960
<v Speaker 1>Do you see it that way or do you see

0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:13.240
<v Speaker 1>other nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or

0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:17.360
<v Speaker 1>having some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential

0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:18.520
<v Speaker 1>outcome off the table.

0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:22.640
<v Speaker 3>You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will.

0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:25.160
<v Speaker 3>And I think everybody's understood the United States military has

0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.360
<v Speaker 3>the capability to do a lot of things. I don't

0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.320
<v Speaker 3>think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did

0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:33.520
<v Speaker 3>with regard to B two stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace

0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.120
<v Speaker 3>and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different

0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.880
<v Speaker 3>here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do

0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:43.160
<v Speaker 3>it despite domestic voices coming from both the right and

0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:45.240
<v Speaker 3>left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in

0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:48.400
<v Speaker 3>this regard it's more of his willingness to take action,

0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.640
<v Speaker 3>which probably caught Russia's and Beijing's attention.

0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration. As

0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, miss the Secretary, the fibiets provide a satisfactory

0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.440
<v Speaker 2>defterance in key waterways in this region, and I'm thinking

0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:03.960
<v Speaker 2>more of the Red Sea over the last few years

0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:05.800
<v Speaker 2>as we think about the straight of Hormos. Can you

0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.000
<v Speaker 2>just share with us what you learn about the best

0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:10.400
<v Speaker 2>way to provide it to terrence and to prevent the

0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:11.760
<v Speaker 2>disruption of those waterways.

0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:13.479
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:15.440
<v Speaker 3>Well, look, I think sending a clear message first ball

0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:17.280
<v Speaker 3>is important. But secondly, and I say this in light

0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.680
<v Speaker 3>of the fact that the Iranian Parliament yesterday voted that

0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:22.960
<v Speaker 3>Iran should close the Straight of Horror moves. I think

0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:24.760
<v Speaker 3>there's going to be a good argument if they strike

0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.840
<v Speaker 3>back to take out the Iranian navy, particularly those elements

0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.000
<v Speaker 3>of the navy that could shut down or obstruct or

0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:33.200
<v Speaker 3>hijack shipping in the Straight of Horn moves. So you

0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.760
<v Speaker 3>could sink the mind layers of the navy. You could

0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.280
<v Speaker 3>go after the swarm boats that tend to come up

0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.920
<v Speaker 3>upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock

0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:47.039
<v Speaker 3>out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think

0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:48.720
<v Speaker 3>to me that would be the top of my list.

0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:52.000
<v Speaker 3>If Iran tries to shut down the Straight or takes

0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.360
<v Speaker 3>more aggressive action, beat it to take that card out

0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.680
<v Speaker 3>of their hand. Because everybody is concerned about shutting down

0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:00.480
<v Speaker 3>the Straight of Horror moves, and yet even though we

0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.120
<v Speaker 3>fly in the face of their own interests, they continue to.

0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.440
<v Speaker 2>Threaten that difficult to answer the next question, sir, But

0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:07.760
<v Speaker 2>just to final question, do you get the sense that

0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:11.200
<v Speaker 2>American involvement in this operation is over or do you

0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:12.400
<v Speaker 2>think this might be ongoing.

0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:16.640
<v Speaker 3>I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds.

0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.880
<v Speaker 3>I think President Trump's instincts have long been since the

0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:21.400
<v Speaker 3>time I work with him. He does not want to

0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:23.800
<v Speaker 3>get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go

0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:27.080
<v Speaker 3>on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots

0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:30.160
<v Speaker 3>missiles and they're largely effectless, I think we stand back.

0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:33.240
<v Speaker 3>We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and

0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:37.400
<v Speaker 3>intelligence and defensive air defense capabilities. But I think in

0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.000
<v Speaker 3>terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that

0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:43.040
<v Speaker 3>time and then urge and negotiation. By the way, a

0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:45.600
<v Speaker 3>negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to

0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.760
<v Speaker 3>include a return to the non proliferation regime and inspectors

0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:53.440
<v Speaker 3>and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran. That's absolutely critical.

0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:56.080
<v Speaker 2>A deeply thoughtful conversation, sir, and we appreciate your time.

0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:58.600
<v Speaker 2>The former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper