1
00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,880
Speaker 2: Stunning events over the weekend America's attack on around years

3
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:12,560
Speaker 2: in the banking a snow thirty six sound long operation

4
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,720
Speaker 2: named Midnight Hammer. Pilots dropped some of the largest bombs

5
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 2: in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us now

6
00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,280
Speaker 2: to discuss is the former US Defense Secretary Marc Hesper

7
00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:24,960
Speaker 2: Mister Secretary, Welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to

8
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,480
Speaker 2: lean on your experience the work to execute an operation

9
00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,880
Speaker 2: like this one and your rarely high level assessment of

10
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:32,800
Speaker 2: his success.

11
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,240
Speaker 3: Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms

12
00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,000
Speaker 3: of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it

13
00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 3: in drop what fourteen GBU fifty seven's, the submarines launched

14
00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 3: Ta lambs from offshore. We were in out with impunity.

15
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,240
Speaker 3: Nobody was hurt, and I just I think it speaks

16
00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,720
Speaker 3: to the skill and professionalism of the United States military.

17
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:57,280
Speaker 3: And now I think what we have to do is

18
00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 3: two things. First of all, get a good battle. Damage

19
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 3: assessment will take a few days and maybe even then

20
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,919
Speaker 3: will be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground.

21
00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,480
Speaker 3: And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's

22
00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,080
Speaker 3: response will be and there are various predictions you guys

23
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:12,920
Speaker 3: have been talking about it what they may or may

24
00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:14,640
Speaker 3: not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now.

25
00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,880
Speaker 4: If you're advising the president right now, what would you

26
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 4: say to him in terms of what to expect in

27
00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 4: terms of Tehran's retaliation.

28
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:23,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, I think there are a range of things

29
00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,720
Speaker 3: they could do, you know, were they could first of all,

30
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,640
Speaker 3: use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people

31
00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,000
Speaker 3: and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my

32
00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,240
Speaker 3: time in early twenty twenty, they could launch Asavov missiles

33
00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 3: against US forces in the Middle East, and there are

34
00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,479
Speaker 3: a couple dozen bases there with over forty thousand US

35
00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,560
Speaker 3: service members that they could go after. Third, there could

36
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 3: be sales here in the United States and globally. Or

37
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,240
Speaker 3: they can go against American officials as they did a

38
00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:53,800
Speaker 3: couple of years ago and try that. And then they

39
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,920
Speaker 3: could go after shipping in the straight of hor moves,

40
00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 3: which I think is unlikely. But to me, those are

41
00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:01,960
Speaker 3: the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in

42
00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:02,680
Speaker 3: the coming days.

43
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,760
Speaker 4: In twenty twenty, when cost them, Sulimani was struck with

44
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 4: that drone strike. We did see retaliation, but it was

45
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,360
Speaker 4: telegraphed through back channels to the US administration. Do you

46
00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 4: think we could see Iran take that same approach this

47
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:15,480
Speaker 4: time around?

48
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think what they have to do is calibrate

49
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 3: this so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel

50
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,040
Speaker 3: like they've satisfied the military, they've struck back. Tell the

51
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 3: Iranian people they struck back, but not so much that

52
00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 3: President Trump really upset anti climbs that escalation ladder and

53
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,760
Speaker 3: really hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the

54
00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,440
Speaker 3: missile strikes at Eli Saud, we had Iranians on the

55
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,359
Speaker 3: phone privately reaching out to us saying they were done,

56
00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 3: they had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, et cetera.

57
00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,320
Speaker 3: And that was, of course long before we knew that

58
00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:52,640
Speaker 3: American service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless, they'll

59
00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:54,839
Speaker 3: do a lot of backschilling because they look they can't

60
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,440
Speaker 3: go much further. This is they're being dismantled, their leadership,

61
00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,960
Speaker 3: certainly the military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear

62
00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 3: sites have been pummeled, and so the question is how long,

63
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:06,799
Speaker 3: how much long can they go on?

64
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,840
Speaker 4: How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation

65
00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 4: or strike against the United States If the Supreme Leader

66
00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,079
Speaker 4: is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late eighties,

67
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 4: and he has no access even to electronic communication.

68
00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, that's the big question is who's in charge,

69
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:28,080
Speaker 3: how complete, how effective is the chain of command right now?

70
00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,320
Speaker 3: Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to

71
00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,720
Speaker 3: the missile forces to launch attacks that may may explain

72
00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,560
Speaker 3: why they haven't responded here in the twenty four to

73
00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,720
Speaker 3: thirty six hours since the US strikes on FDA, NA

74
00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:41,600
Speaker 3: Ton's and Esfahan.

75
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:45,520
Speaker 1: There's one theory out there, Secretary that this could potentially

76
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,920
Speaker 1: reignite some of the efforts that are on has made

77
00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,960
Speaker 1: to achieve nuclear status, because that is the only deterrence,

78
00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 1: And especially with the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium

79
00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:00,680
Speaker 1: missing into action, how concerned are you about that reality

80
00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:05,960
Speaker 1: going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts.

81
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:07,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, look, you bring up a good point that I

82
00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 3: was going to raise. There's still nine hundred pounds of

83
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 3: sixty percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they

84
00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,160
Speaker 3: would need for ten nuclear weapons. Out there that we

85
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,400
Speaker 3: don't have control. We don't know where it is. The

86
00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,760
Speaker 3: IE doesn't know where it is, so first of all,

87
00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 3: we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know

88
00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,960
Speaker 3: to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed, and

89
00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,760
Speaker 3: even if it has, it's just a matter of time

90
00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,200
Speaker 3: before they rebuild. Now that at this point probably looks

91
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 3: more like years than anything else than months. But nonetheless,

92
00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,080
Speaker 3: until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of

93
00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,600
Speaker 3: the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself,

94
00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 3: this is likely an ambition that will grow back over time,

95
00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:51,200
Speaker 3: arguably more energized than before because of what has happened

96
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:52,479
Speaker 3: here in the last couple weeks.

97
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:54,720
Speaker 1: There's a larger point, Secretary that other people have been

98
00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 1: making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent

99
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 1: to say Russia to chig now showing what the US

100
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,680
Speaker 1: military can do and is willing to do in the

101
00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,960
Speaker 1: phase of some sort of red line that gets crossed.

102
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,960
Speaker 1: Do you see it that way or do you see

103
00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,240
Speaker 1: other nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or

104
00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:17,360
Speaker 1: having some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential

105
00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:18,520
Speaker 1: outcome off the table.

106
00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,640
Speaker 3: You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will.

107
00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,160
Speaker 3: And I think everybody's understood the United States military has

108
00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,360
Speaker 3: the capability to do a lot of things. I don't

109
00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 3: think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did

110
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,520
Speaker 3: with regard to B two stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace

111
00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,120
Speaker 3: and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different

112
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 3: here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do

113
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,160
Speaker 3: it despite domestic voices coming from both the right and

114
00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 3: left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in

115
00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 3: this regard it's more of his willingness to take action,

116
00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,640
Speaker 3: which probably caught Russia's and Beijing's attention.

117
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 2: Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration. As

118
00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,560
Speaker 2: you know, miss the Secretary, the fibiets provide a satisfactory

119
00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,440
Speaker 2: defterance in key waterways in this region, and I'm thinking

120
00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,960
Speaker 2: more of the Red Sea over the last few years

121
00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:05,800
Speaker 2: as we think about the straight of Hormos. Can you

122
00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,000
Speaker 2: just share with us what you learn about the best

123
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,400
Speaker 2: way to provide it to terrence and to prevent the

124
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:11,760
Speaker 2: disruption of those waterways.

125
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:13,479
Speaker 4: Yeah.

126
00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 3: Well, look, I think sending a clear message first ball

127
00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 3: is important. But secondly, and I say this in light

128
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 3: of the fact that the Iranian Parliament yesterday voted that

129
00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:22,960
Speaker 3: Iran should close the Straight of Horror moves. I think

130
00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:24,760
Speaker 3: there's going to be a good argument if they strike

131
00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,840
Speaker 3: back to take out the Iranian navy, particularly those elements

132
00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,000
Speaker 3: of the navy that could shut down or obstruct or

133
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,200
Speaker 3: hijack shipping in the Straight of Horn moves. So you

134
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 3: could sink the mind layers of the navy. You could

135
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,280
Speaker 3: go after the swarm boats that tend to come up

136
00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 3: upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock

137
00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:47,039
Speaker 3: out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think

138
00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:48,720
Speaker 3: to me that would be the top of my list.

139
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 3: If Iran tries to shut down the Straight or takes

140
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,360
Speaker 3: more aggressive action, beat it to take that card out

141
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 3: of their hand. Because everybody is concerned about shutting down

142
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,480
Speaker 3: the Straight of Horror moves, and yet even though we

143
00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,120
Speaker 3: fly in the face of their own interests, they continue to.

144
00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,440
Speaker 2: Threaten that difficult to answer the next question, sir, But

145
00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 2: just to final question, do you get the sense that

146
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,200
Speaker 2: American involvement in this operation is over or do you

147
00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:12,400
Speaker 2: think this might be ongoing.

148
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 3: I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds.

149
00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,880
Speaker 3: I think President Trump's instincts have long been since the

150
00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 3: time I work with him. He does not want to

151
00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,800
Speaker 3: get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go

152
00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,080
Speaker 3: on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots

153
00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,160
Speaker 3: missiles and they're largely effectless, I think we stand back.

154
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,240
Speaker 3: We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and

155
00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 3: intelligence and defensive air defense capabilities. But I think in

156
00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,000
Speaker 3: terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that

157
00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,040
Speaker 3: time and then urge and negotiation. By the way, a

158
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 3: negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to

159
00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 3: include a return to the non proliferation regime and inspectors

160
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,440
Speaker 3: and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran. That's absolutely critical.

161
00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,080
Speaker 2: A deeply thoughtful conversation, sir, and we appreciate your time.

162
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 2: The former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper