1 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Strap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: with Sarah Ponzick and Mike Reagan. Hello and welcome to 3 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,440 Speaker 1: What goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets podcast. I'm Sarah 4 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: pons a reporter on the Cross Asset team, and I'm 5 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: Mike Reagan, a senior editor at Bloomberg. This week on 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: the show, nothing about the past year has seemed normal. 7 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: A global pandemic, widespread lockdown, so what could be seen 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: as a medical miracle with vaccine creation? But then, of 9 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 1: course there's the market angle. We had the quickest fall 10 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: into a bear market on record, and that was then 11 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: followed by a historic comeback. But according to our guests, 12 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: we're now in the midst of an expansion just like 13 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: any other, just likely a shorter one. He'll explain, And 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: of course we will close out the episode with our 15 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: tradition the craziest thing I saw in markets this week, 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: and by all means, if you saw something crazy, give 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: us a call on the Bloomberg Podcast Hotline at six 18 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: four six three to four nine. Oh and let us 19 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: know what crazy thing you saw. Leave us a voicemail 20 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: and maybe we'll play it on the show. Uh And Sarah, 21 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: I trust you have a crazy thing. You had two 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 1: weeks a week off there to prepare, so I expect 23 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: you to bring it this week. Yeah. So I brought 24 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: you two crazy things this week. I might even throw 25 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 1: in a third if you're lucky. But for everyone listening, 26 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: I know you demanded it, and we did get the 27 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: demand on our ratings on Apple Podcasts. So luckily you 28 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: don't just have to stick around today for the crazy things. 29 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:35,839 Speaker 1: You also get to stick around for one of Mike's nicknames. 30 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: How exciting that is. Remember this into it. This is 31 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 1: not the high value nickname. I'm holding out for two 32 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: hundred ratings to give the high value nickname. This. We're 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: getting there. This is a bargain nickname. It's a flattering 34 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: nickname to me. So I keep those ratings coming. I 35 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: think we're at one seventy something now, so we get 36 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: the two. I'll deliver the really embarrassing nickname for this 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: right at this right, Mike, give it a week, give 38 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: it a week, just so you can all roast me 39 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: on Twitter. I know that is the entire purpose of this, 40 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: which is fine. That's that's as it should be. But 41 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 1: new guest, and we won't roast him on Twitter anywhere else. 42 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: We're very happy to have him first time on the show. 43 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 1: He is the chief strategist at the clock Tower Group. 44 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: His name is Marco Peppitch. Marco, welcome to the show. 45 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: It's a real pleasure to be here. Thank you for 46 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: having me. Oh absolutely, Marco. Let's start. Let's talk a 47 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: little bit about the clock Tower Group. Um, and it 48 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about you know, what kind 49 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,119 Speaker 1: of work you do for them. I know the main 50 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: business is sort of seating new hedge funds, right, um, So, 51 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: so tell us about what else the company does and 52 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: what your role is. We're in an alternative investment management firm, 53 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: so we we do several things. We we set hedge funds, 54 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: macro discretionary hedge funds. We also UM have a seating 55 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: platform actually in China with on shore managers there. We 56 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: also are doing private investing, specifically in fittex space, but 57 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: we're also looking to expand from there as well. So 58 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: there's several sort of business lines that we have. We 59 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: have great relationships we've built over the last twenty years 60 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: with institutional investors and we really listen to our clients. 61 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: We hear what they are looking to do and um, 62 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 1: we you know, we claim to be able to answer 63 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: most of their challenges and deliver with some innovative business 64 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: ideas and investment products. So just to expand on that 65 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: a little bit, how do you go about deciding where 66 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: to send money to if you're seating hedge funds? I mean, 67 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: how do you go about doing that process? You know? Um, 68 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: it requires a real in depth knowledge of the industry 69 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: and I think also of m where the young talent is. 70 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: I mean that's the fundamental, uh, fundamental issue. I mean, um, 71 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: you have to know how to kind of have a 72 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: draft board. Think about like a professional sports team. You 73 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: throughout the season, you're looking at the college studs coming 74 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: through the program and you're looking at where they are 75 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: and how they rank. Um, So that's one part of 76 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: the process. It's very difficult because of course the industry 77 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: I mean not like you have statistics of hedge fund 78 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: portfolio managers somewhere publicly available. But you also have to 79 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: know where the sport is going, you know, so you 80 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: have to know kind of whether three point shooters are 81 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: more likely to succeed or you need big, big guys rebounding. 82 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: So there's also that component where we have to constantly 83 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: be thinking where is macro going? And so I guess 84 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: my role is not really on the former. You know, 85 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: I'm not really like a talent scout. I enjoy talking 86 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: to really smart people and hopefully I can add value there, 87 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 1: but my expertise really is on the ladder, so kind 88 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: of thinking where the macro industry is going, where the trends? 89 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: Do you want to see someone who is an expert 90 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: in emerging markets stress that more classical macro. You know, 91 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: those are questions we also have to ask ourselves. I 92 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: can't quite say that you have a five star rating 93 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: or four star rating a quarterback or anything like that. 94 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: We don't you know, you don't have that. But you've 95 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: got to keep your ear to the ground and kind 96 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: of figure out who's who's out there, Who's who, who's good? 97 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: So you're on Wall Street pets looking for writers. I 98 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: assume that I'm I'm just kidding of No, no no, no, 99 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: actually I think my eight year old son, you know, 100 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: could could be good next, next one up. He played 101 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: a lot of computer games. Yeah, absolutely absolutely, But let's 102 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: get to that point. Then, your role, as Sarah mentioned, um, 103 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: you have an interesting take on on what we can 104 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: expect from this economic cycle. Uh, it's gonna be like 105 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: a normal cycle, just shorter. Uh. And you wrote in 106 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: a recent note, you know this augurs for a more volatile, 107 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 1: manic and brief bowl market. Talk us through that a 108 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: little bit. How do you see that unfolding and kind 109 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 1: of you know, what inning are we in now in 110 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: your view of this expansion and bowl market? You know, 111 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 1: let me first give you sort of a sense of 112 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: where I'm coming from in terms of my competency. Um, 113 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: I feel that my kind of methodological bias is probably 114 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 1: political analysis. So that's where I cut my teeth at 115 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 1: on south side research. And so when I look at 116 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: what happened in the last expansion and I sort of 117 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: try to figure out, why was it as prolonged, tepid, 118 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: Why was it all about secular stignation. I call it 119 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: the Charlie Brown expansion because it was always kind of depressed. 120 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: Um So why A lot of people give you a 121 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: lot of really complicated answers like, oh, people are getting 122 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: old demographics, you know, technologies deflation. Yes, okay, maybe to 123 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: me it was very simple. Politics flipped and we got 124 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: this huge push towards austerity. Not just in the US 125 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: with the Tea Party, but even with David Cameron in 126 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 1: the in Europe mircle of course everywhere. Only really could 127 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: you say that abanomics kind of moved a little bit 128 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: against that. But there was this big political consensus that 129 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: we had to tighten our belts because what households did, 130 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,479 Speaker 1: so the governments had to do the same. And I 131 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: think that was a huge component of prolonging the recovery, 132 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: making it, you know, tepid, make ensuring that the output 133 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: gap could continue to be basically open and not closed. 134 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: I think that this time around, it's very clear that 135 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 1: we're in a different paradigm, and so I think that 136 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: we're probably done. I would say with you know, I 137 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: don't know. I'm just throwing this out there, but like 138 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: this recovery I think is behind us. We ask me 139 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 1: again in twelve months, maybe I'll reassess. I think we 140 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: have two stimulus programs coming through using reconciliation, which is novel, 141 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: and we can talk about why that's novel. I think 142 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: they're gonna be huge. I think there's gonna be no 143 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: revenue offsets. This this fantasy that they'll be corporate tax 144 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: increases likely will not happen, So we're just gonna have unadultered, 145 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: high powered spending. That makes this, I think, meaningfully different 146 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: from the previous expansion. And I will say, of course, Marco, 147 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: you have a book. It's called Geopolitical Alpha, and it 148 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: was ranked one of the best books by Bloomberg of 149 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: so if you're intrigued, definitely check it out. So what 150 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: that said, I mean, with the flip that we have seen, 151 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: of course there's a lot of spending coming down the pipeline. 152 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: If this is yes, it's a faster expansion in, but 153 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: then it also means it's a shorter expansion. What is 154 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: it then that is the nail in the coffin? What 155 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 1: is it that actually ends the expansion? If it's faster 156 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: yet also shorter, you have to assume the end comes 157 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: sooner as well. Yes, and I think eventually we do 158 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: run out of fiscal policy um at some point. And 159 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: I think that sort of my my mental framework for 160 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: this would be the short and quick recessions that happen 161 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: after the Korean War or World War two, where you 162 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: had a fiscal cliff recession. I mean right now, you know, 163 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: speaking on February eighteen twenty one, I would say three 164 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: looks like potentially the end end line. I think in 165 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: two will get another two trillion dollar stimulus package infrastructure deal, um. 166 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: And I think by three, after the mid terms, it's 167 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: it's unlikely they will be able to keep up with 168 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: this high water mark we've now established in terms of 169 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: fiscal spending. But you know, that's a very low conviction 170 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 1: of you. All I know is that for the next two, 171 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: you know, two years, it's like diamond hands and to 172 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: the moon. You know, I got anything else to tell 173 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: you other than that, And let me tell you one 174 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 1: more thing. Let me tell you one more thing, just 175 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: really quickly, I think, uh, think about it this way. Okay, 176 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: let's let's let's say we're listening to your podcast, amazing podcast, 177 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: whichever one should listen to. Let's say they were listening 178 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: to your podcast in a car and we pull up 179 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 1: to the takeout window. All right, but I'd like to 180 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: listen to your podcasts at three X. Okay. I don't 181 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: know if anyone does that, but let's say I do. 182 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: And so what I'm saying about the cycles, it's like 183 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: listening to you guys. And then suddenly at the takeoff window, 184 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: I realized they forgot my fries, they didn't put the 185 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: milk I want in my coffee, and I'm arguing with 186 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: you know, like whatever I get that done and coffee together, 187 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: you know, like you got a tough day, you need 188 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: energy and I guess whatever carbohydrates. Anyways, my point is 189 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: that what happens is that when you come back to 190 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:00,199 Speaker 1: the podcast, you've missed meaningfully more of that pod. Kist 191 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: him you did if you listen to it at one X. 192 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: And I think that's the difference between the cycle and 193 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: the previous one. If you're sitting on the sideline being 194 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: cautious because evaluations this or that, waiting for a correction, 195 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: three months on the sidelines, it's like nine months in 196 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: the previous cycle. I do have a friend who listens 197 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: to it. I think it like one and a half 198 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 1: times speed. And then every time he sees me starry, 199 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: he's like, you know, and I talked him. He's like, 200 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: you really talk, you know, the same energy that you 201 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: usually do when I hear you on your podcast, Marco. 202 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: I wonder, you know, another thing you've written a little 203 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: bit about is inflation, the outlook for inflation. I wonder 204 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: how that fits into the sort of inevitable death of 205 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: of the the expansion cycle. You know this sort of 206 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: uh stereotype that's probably true of true of most times 207 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: is that you know, the central banks typically snuff out 208 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: expansionary time reacting to inflation uh and and raising interest rates. Um. 209 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: And I think you make a good point. You say 210 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 1: that there's obviously gonna be this second quarter bumping inflation 211 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: as the world kind of gets back to normal. And 212 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: you know, you have some you know, comparisons to prices 213 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 1: last year that that we're obviously uh deflated because of 214 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: the pandemic. So you think sexual banks will dismiss that 215 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: sort of outlier of a big hot second quarter inflation. Um, 216 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: But you do think it's it's coming. Uh. You point 217 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: out to, uh, maybe oil going to eight dollars a barrel? 218 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: So is it is that going to be a typical 219 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: sort of boom and bust scenario as past cycles that 220 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: ultimately it's the central banks that sort of ruined the party. 221 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: And you know, how fast do we have to worry 222 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: about inflation and the reaction function from central banks if 223 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: not the second quarter? Yeah, So definitely that could be 224 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: part of the calculus. And think three again could be 225 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: a moment when central banks realized that they kind of 226 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: made a mistake mathematically center a sparables like completely understand 227 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: why they're saying it's transitory, But inflation is not a 228 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: monitory phenomenon. It's not even a mathematical phenomenon. It's as 229 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: many in many ways a psychological phenomenon. And I'm just 230 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: not sure how economic agents, you know, households and CEOs 231 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: are going to react to this coming quote unquote transitory 232 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: about of inflation. I think they will react. And this 233 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: is just my, you know, basically educated guess, but I 234 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: think they'll react vibe uh forwarding their purchases to the 235 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: present from the future. Um. So that's that's the first 236 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: part of this. Now to your question of does Dad's 237 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:42,839 Speaker 1: then bring the end of the cycle, I think yes. 238 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: I think you can add that to sort of the 239 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: soup with the fiscal thrust argument, but I am not 240 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: sure how fast it will happen. And and here's here's 241 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: what I would kind of add a political lends to this. Um, 242 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: they told us what they want to do, central bankers 243 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: of tolls, they wan't hire inflation. It is the easiest way, 244 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: and I know most investors don't like to hear this 245 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: because their savers. But it's the easiest way to kind 246 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: of redistribute wealth and to deal with because because a 247 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: lot of people are indebted at very high levels. Of course, 248 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: provided their wages rise as well, which I think they will. 249 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 1: So I think that this is something that's coming by Paulson, 250 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: because I think they'll delay the kind of acts of 251 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: central banking that comes and cuts inflation in its tracks. 252 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: I know that we know how to do it. I 253 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: know that Paul Walker did. But Paul Wulker was a 254 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: man of the moment and he managed to fight and 255 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, swat away inflation through two recessions that increased unemployment. 256 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 1: I just don't see any willingness to impost pain on 257 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: the media voter at this point, and so I think 258 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: that we will look through inflation longer than most investors 259 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: probably think. So. So speaking of inflation and looking at commodities, 260 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: and Mike mentioned how you said oil could go to 261 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: eighty dollars a barrel. Of course, as speaker, was a 262 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: remarkable week in the United States. In Texas, we had 263 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: the freeze, we saw oil prices shoot through sixty dollars 264 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: a barrel. West Texas intermediate for the first time in 265 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: a year. So is this just the beginning? And obviously 266 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: that that's on the supply side of the equation, But 267 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,719 Speaker 1: what comes next to really push oil higher? Is is 268 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: it the recoveries, the vaccine roll up, things getting back 269 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 1: to normal, and then what does that mean for the 270 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: inflation picture overall? You know, Sarah, I mean it's all 271 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: of those, all of the above, you know. So, Um, 272 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: I also think jue political tensions you can add in 273 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: there too. Um. You know, the sort of the hope 274 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: of a quick supply shock, positive supply shock because of 275 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: a Biden administration is dissipating. Um iran elections midyear, it's 276 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: unlikely we get a deal. I mean, it's a very 277 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: complicated situation. But I think fundamentally, um, one of the 278 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: most ironic and paradoxical uh kind of effects of the 279 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: E s G sustainability push is that many energy companies 280 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: just do not want to put topics in two very 281 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: expensive projects. And so I you know, like you have 282 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: demand which is basically stable around nine million barrels a 283 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: day globally, and if Capex doesn't produce four to six 284 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 1: million new barrels a year, of product of production to 285 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: replace depleted oil wells. You can't make meet that demand. 286 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: So we could have a meaningful problem when demand does 287 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: recover to global kind of average demand and CAPEX doesn't 288 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: show up to replace the usual depleted barrels that just 289 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: happened through well depletion. So that's the first issue. I 290 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: think the second issue and what it means for inflation, 291 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: it's tricky. So I would actually say all price increases 292 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: over the longer term are deflation ary if not accompanied 293 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: by commensurable increases in wages. And this is really tough 294 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: for economists and market participants to forecasts, like how do 295 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: you forecast wage increases? You know, the Phillips Group hasn't 296 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: really hopped in any way. There's also some ways in 297 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: which we don't really know where kind of wage pressures 298 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: are going to come from. But I think there are 299 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: two things that are happening right now. One, many labor 300 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: unions are seeing in this crisis an opportunity to renegotiate 301 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: and to um you have a real problem in many 302 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: major cities in the US as an example, where you know, 303 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: schools are not going to open for a long time, 304 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: and so if women can't and they've been uh, disproportionately 305 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: hurt by dis crisis. If they can't get back into 306 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: the labor force, they're an incredibly important input into the 307 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: service economy of the US, and that will boost wages 308 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: as well, I think in parts of the economy that 309 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: haven't really seen much wage pressures. Putting all this together, 310 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: I think trying to figure out if wage pressures show 311 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: up over the next twell months is a critical component 312 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: into figuring out whether any inflationary impact of commodities is sustainable. 313 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: And I would lean towards yeah, there will be wage pressures, 314 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: you know, Marcus, sticking in your wheelhouse stare of geopolitics. Um, 315 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: there was one line in the notes we got from 316 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: you that that I'm gonna be honest, that kind of 317 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: scared my my shoes off here. So so of course 318 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: you know I have to read that, Sarah, this this 319 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: the scary stuff you gotta bring up. But let me 320 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: let me just read this itself. Fear cells. Yeah. Um, 321 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: so you write that the odds of a military confrontation 322 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: with the US are rising as China achieves greater energy 323 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:28,400 Speaker 1: independence and gains a critical footprint in the global renewable 324 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: supply chain. Um, I'm just glad I'm above the draft 325 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: age when I read something like that. But but unpack 326 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: us that for us a little bit. UM, I guess 327 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 1: the argument is that um, China is becoming so competitive 328 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: globally in technology, green energy. Recently, we we even saw 329 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 1: headlines about China does not want to export rarer earth 330 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 1: materials to the US because they can be used in 331 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,719 Speaker 1: military projects. That sort of thing unpack that for US 332 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: is that basically it that that the trade, aid and 333 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: economic competition is getting so fierce between China and the 334 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: US that this UH necessarily raises the odds of an 335 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: actual UH military conflict. Let me step back. I I actually, um, 336 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: you know, I've had a view on this for a 337 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: very long time. So I started my career in finance 338 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 1: by basically trying to make politics and geopolitics investment relevant 339 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: to my clients. And one of the frustrating things in 340 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 1: thirteen is that nobody was paying attention to Asia, really nobody, 341 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: and especially in Singapore in Hong Kong, they would like 342 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: throw you out of the office if you said, well, 343 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: I think China U s dnsion is good on no, no, no, 344 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: it's all about you know, isis. It's all yeah, tell 345 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: me about and so that was very frustrating for me, 346 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,640 Speaker 1: and I was trying to explain why there is this, 347 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 1: you know, very very theoretical, very political science based problem 348 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: between US and China that's been identified before Garhame Ellison 349 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: wrote that great book, The CD of This Trap, and 350 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 1: so on and so on. However, I think there's two 351 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 1: things that are going on right now. Two man people 352 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:05,719 Speaker 1: are linearly extrapolating the last ten years into the future, 353 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:10,159 Speaker 1: and so they're extrapolating using the only mental framework they have, 354 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: which is the Cold War. So ironically, Mike, I'm actually 355 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: going to kind of disagree with you and agree with 356 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,879 Speaker 1: you at the same time. I would say that the 357 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: trade tensions, the economic tensions, are likely going to surprise 358 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: to the downside, you know. And and why well, because 359 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: we don't live in a bipolar world where so union 360 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 1: in the US can carve up the planet in two 361 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 1: neat spheres and then tell their allies plain ice or 362 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 1: will punish you. We live in more of a nineteenth 363 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: century kind of a world, which is exciting. It's a 364 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: swashbuckling there's just a lot of messiness and geopolitical volatility, 365 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,239 Speaker 1: and it's gonna be very difficult for US to keep 366 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: its allies and chat in China to do the same. 367 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 1: And in that world, it's going to be very difficult 368 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: to actually have a clean break. Now. I fully expected 369 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: Biden administration to be very tough on emergency knowledge is 370 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: high tech and so on, for sure, but I think 371 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: the tariffs and blanket, uh, the coupling is unlikely to happen. 372 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 1: And we saw that last year, by the way, the 373 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: height of the trade war, you know, we had massive 374 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: inflows into China into the bond market that was one 375 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: of the number like number one favorite trades for many 376 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: investment institutional investors and so on. So that's the first 377 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: part of this. You can have geopolitical rivalry and still 378 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 1: trade with one another and still invest in one another. 379 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: And actually history and political science tells us that this 380 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: is what happens in the multipolar world. However, military conflict 381 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: still remains a problem right as a risk. I mean, 382 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: look at Germany and the UK before n Their trade 383 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: increased right up until the day of World War One, 384 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: and so those tensions are still there, and those are 385 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: meaningful tensions of a rising power trying to carve out 386 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: its sphere of influence and the status quot power trying 387 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: to kind of limit its influence, and and that's just 388 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: the that's just the world we live in today. So 389 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 1: what I was saying in that particular analysis was that 390 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 1: some of the emerging technologies is sustainability and alternative energy, 391 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: which of course we all kind of welcome because they 392 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,239 Speaker 1: will resolve climate change. Ironically and paradoxically, there is an 393 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: outcome here where they also allow countries like China but 394 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: also US to become more energy independent, and that reduces 395 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: constraints to conflict because if China US don't have to 396 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: worry about international trade flows or access to commodities to 397 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: fuel their economies, if they become more out of autarchic 398 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 1: which is mouthful out tartic, they gain sovereignty and independence 399 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: and can then decide to pursue, you know, foreign policy 400 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: moves that could lead to conflict. You know, it's it's 401 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: a fascinating point. What I also find so interesting is 402 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,360 Speaker 1: how the focus of not just markets, but people who 403 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: watch and pay attention to markets has changed. I mean, 404 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: the past couple of years, it was all trade war, 405 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: trade war, trade US US China relations then switched a 406 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: bit to the election, and now these days it's all 407 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: diamond hands into the moons, you said earlier. So so 408 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 1: we'll see if if the narrative and the focus does 409 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: shift back under the new administration. But you know, Sarah, 410 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: one of the reasons that happens is also because, uh, 411 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: something that's front and center becomes background noise. It becomes 412 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,719 Speaker 1: priced in, so in you know, you walk into an 413 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: office and you say, hey, China US serious problem. People 414 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: are looking at you like, maybe I don't know what's 415 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 1: Trump gonna do. He's a dealmaker. Don't worry about it. 416 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that was the consensus, right. Have you 417 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 1: read the Art of War like or whatever? The Deal 418 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,199 Speaker 1: is another book, but that one was not written by 419 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: President Trump. I'm pretty sure you know, like, yeah, the 420 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 1: Art of the Deal. You know, you've got to read 421 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: the Art of the Deal to figure it out. It's 422 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: there's not going to be a trade war. Like Okay, 423 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: thanks Dives. You know, that's great. Happened, um, But but 424 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: what I'm getting at here is that I think what's happened, Sarah, 425 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 1: is that a lot of this stuff has become price 426 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: then in its background, and investors can kind of look 427 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: through it, which is I think in some ways appropriate. 428 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: But then there's uh, there are issues that I think 429 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: would alarm me and would say, you know, for example, 430 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 1: anything that has to do with Taiwan, I think would 431 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: be a serious confrontation. So Marco, to sort of boil 432 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: it all down to how how you would have your 433 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: clients are listeners sort of position themselves. Uh, it sounds 434 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: like for now, at least for the foreseeable future, it's 435 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 1: kind of the classic reflation trade that everyone's talking about, 436 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 1: you know, uh, value over growth, emerging markets, commodity producers, energy, 437 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: uh and and tips. I guess is that sort of 438 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: a safe kind of summary of of how you would 439 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 1: be positioning right now. Yes, And I think that over 440 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: the next couple of months there's going to be two 441 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: narratives that will fight each other in the market. So 442 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: the two narratives that I see battling it out is 443 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 1: the growth differential narrative and the relative real yield. Let 444 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: me explain what I mean. The dollar is so important 445 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: to the story for for me to be bullish and 446 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: everything you're just listed, which I am. I also have 447 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 1: to be a dollar bear. But it's so clear the 448 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 1: US is going to outperform in terms of global in 449 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: terms of growth. I mean, we're looking at double digit 450 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: nominal growth this year potentially. So how can you be 451 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: a dollar bear? Well, you have to believe the growth 452 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 1: differentials don't lead currencies. So what leads currencies? Well, I 453 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: think that real yield differentials will lead currencies. And I 454 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,879 Speaker 1: think that in the US we will have more localized inflation, 455 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: We will have a very unorthodox physical and monetary policy 456 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 1: to a greater degree than anywhere else in the developed 457 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 1: world or in major economies. And so I think that 458 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: that will pull dollar lower. And this is contraintuitive for 459 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: many investors. Growth differential story has been the way they've 460 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: traded currencies over the past, of the past expansion, that 461 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: the all dollar to dollar smile story. And you know, 462 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: on the one side, with the USA performing right, and 463 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: and and all I would say is that remember that 464 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: worked when the central bank was orthodox, when it followed 465 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 1: the precepts. We learned a nick on one on one 466 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: when basically the central bank will respond to higher inflation expectations, 467 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,719 Speaker 1: high growth expectations, but becoming hawkish. If that's suddenly no 468 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 1: longer the case, I think the relative real yield differential 469 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 1: becomes the leading sort of leading factor in currencies. And 470 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: I think that there will be a battle Mike over 471 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: the next couple of months. Maybe my view will not 472 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: win out in the next month or two, maybe the 473 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: dollar gets a little bit of a bump. It's at 474 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,479 Speaker 1: a critical juncture two hundred day moving average. You know 475 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,159 Speaker 1: that we're we're really now at this moment. And I 476 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: think you'll have some really interesting guests and you'll be 477 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: able to ask him which which camp they're in, UM, 478 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: and it'll be interesting to see it playoff. It is 479 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: an interesting moment, and it seems like we are at 480 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 1: a critical juncture when it comes to yields, both nominal 481 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: and real, when it comes to the dollar, and different 482 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: areas of the market that are going to drive whether 483 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: you believe in the reflation trade or not going forwards. UM. 484 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: I think that's a great place to leave it. And Mike, 485 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: I know you know what time it is this week? 486 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: It is that time. It is that time stand clear 487 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: of the craziest things we saw in markets this week. 488 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett just told us what time it is. UM, 489 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: So I got a couple to I'm gonna start with 490 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,640 Speaker 1: just this natural gas market. Um, with everything that's going 491 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: on in Texas, and I know I'm getting out of 492 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 1: my specialty of the alternative assets space. No, uh, Michael 493 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: Jordan's or Michael Jackson or I got something that's number two. 494 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: But just you know, to see in Oklahoma spot natty 495 00:26:55,480 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 1: gas go as high as fifty dollars one day, back 496 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: down to four dollars per million b to you the 497 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: next day, trap. I mean, it's all explainable with what's 498 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: going on in Texas and the you know, they stopped 499 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: allowing natural guests to leave Texas and then just the 500 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 1: demand from the power plant plants and everything else. But 501 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: to me still to see natty gas hit one thousand, 502 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: twent and fifty dollars spot out of Oklahoma and then 503 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: back down the floor the next day, I I haven't 504 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: seen that. I guess we saw something crazier when oil 505 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 1: went negative, but that that, to me was pretty wild. 506 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,439 Speaker 1: It's the opposite direction, pretty crazy. Yeah. Uh. The other thing, okay, 507 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,239 Speaker 1: and I'll give you my second one while we're at it. 508 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 1: Have you heard of these things non fungible tokens? So 509 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 1: it's basically you can put some piece of digital information 510 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:55,120 Speaker 1: on the blockchain. It's usually on on the Ethereum blockchain. Um. 511 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 1: So you have people making digital art, which obviously can 512 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,919 Speaker 1: be copied a million times, but if you put the 513 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: original on the blockchain, there are people willing to pay 514 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: a fortune for it. Uh, you know, tens of thousands 515 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: of dollars um now, Sarah, and this is courtesy. There's 516 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,880 Speaker 1: a good Bloomberg story on that, and it talks about 517 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 1: how Christie is now accepting cryptocurrencies to buy this type 518 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: of artwork. They're not accepting the premium what they collect 519 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 1: that you still have to pay that in dollars, but 520 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,880 Speaker 1: for the principal value of the art, they they'll accept 521 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: the crypto. Jeff Billbro, one of our listeners who's a 522 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 1: very good source of crazy things, points out people are 523 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: doing this with tweets now, so you can take your tweet, 524 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: put it on the blockchain, and then sell it. So 525 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: Mark Cuban did this. He sold a tweet that said basically, 526 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: the store of value generation is kicking your butt and 527 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: you don't even know it. He didn't say, but he 528 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 1: said a different word that I can't say on the podcast. 529 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: And then he looked to his blog with a blog 530 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 1: post that I confess I haven't read. But you know 531 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: what this time is, Sarah, It's time to play some prices, right, 532 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 1: What are you paying for Mark Cuban's tweet on the blockchain? 533 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: You can own it forever. I have no idea. I'll 534 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 1: give you one head. Usually I I bring these things 535 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: up because they're outrageously high priced. H this isn't dollars, uh, 536 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: I would say this one. Well, I guess it's all 537 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 1: in the eye of the beholder. It's still kind of 538 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: outrageous to buy a tweet? What at any price? I think? 539 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 1: But what's your bid for a Mark Cuban tweet? Let's 540 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: go with thirty five thousand, thousand, Marcat. What are you 541 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 1: bidding for Mark Cuban? Well, give it to my market view. 542 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna do two x whatever, Sarah says. You 543 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: would hide though, so I'm a little more into here. 544 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 1: You're like a double double levered Ponzi. There the you say, 545 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,959 Speaker 1: all right, well, Cuban is gonna be happy to hear 546 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: about you guys, because he got a thousand bucks apparently 547 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: for it. Okay, for this tweet. You prefaced it by saying, 548 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: you know, these things go absurdly highs. Then I'm thinking, Okay, 549 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: this has got to be ridiculous. Every single time, this 550 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 1: is what happens this particular one. Yeah, I really overthink 551 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: it every single time. And I was just locked into 552 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 1: with two X things, so I had no way to 553 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 1: go in one. Technically, I appreciate the two x uh 554 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: your two excellent lover loves leverage. I appreciate the leverage. 555 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: Did instinct though that I will say, Katie Gray felt 556 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: filled in for you last week and she was willing 557 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 1: to pay like twitter fifty thousand for a pair of 558 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 1: Barack Obama basketball sneakers. So uh. But by the way, 559 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 1: I just want to say, I just want to say 560 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 1: everyone here is just following what wood Tank did years ago. Yeah, 561 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 1: I mean wood Tank released that album, like you know, 562 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 1: it was sold for two million bucks, Like come on, 563 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: you know they need they need a little shot out here. 564 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: They did. We appreciate that. That's all I got, Sara, 565 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 1: how about you? All right? So I'll just start with 566 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: my favorite part of the week. I've got to say. 567 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 1: So the Game Stop hearing on Thursday, clearly that the 568 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: best part of it was when on Roaring Kitty himself 569 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: in in in the light of the lawyer who had 570 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 1: a cat face accidentally and that video went viral. He 571 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 1: basically started his testimony by saying, I want a few 572 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,320 Speaker 1: clear up a few things. I am not a cat 573 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 1: and this is the best part of the week. But 574 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: also just crazy that that was being said in the 575 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: mix of a hearing on Capitol Hill. You gotta love 576 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: it these days. But also I just have a pretty 577 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: classic one these days. Classic name mix up. So Clubhouse 578 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 1: which has become pretty popular these days, a lot of 579 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: people using it to get conversation going and get people 580 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: to come on and listen to them have a conversation. Well, 581 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 1: there's a public company called Clubhouse Media Group and they're 582 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: a self described marketing and media firm that does target 583 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 1: social media inflowers and they actually changed their name just 584 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 1: last month from tong g Healthcare Group to promote its 585 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: influentier and social media focus. So good timing because now 586 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: the Clubhouse has become really really popular. Clubhouse Media Group 587 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 1: shares have surged over one thanks to their name change. 588 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: So just a classic name mix up. You've got like 589 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: the Long Island Iced Tea and block Islanchain. Yet I 590 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: was hoping that Vlad to Nev, the CEO of robin Hood, 591 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: after Roaring Kitty spoke. I was hoping he would say, 592 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 1: he's not a cat, and I am not Jackson Brown, 593 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: no matter how much I look like Jackson Brown, and 594 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: the fact my brokerage was running on empty. You're laughing plainly. 595 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 1: I know you don't, I am. I think some more 596 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 1: more more people believe that Keith Gill and Glad Toe 597 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 1: are actually the same person. You should say, I am 598 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 1: not Roaring Kitty. I was. I was hoping they'd come 599 00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:03,560 Speaker 1: back to Keith Gil with the actual zoom filter of 600 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 1: a cat on his face at some point. Unfortunately that 601 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: didn't happen. Well, I have one for you guys were 602 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 1: in the market, let's hear it alright. So um, I've been. 603 00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,960 Speaker 1: I've been just seeing so many like bubble, bubble bubble 604 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: comments everywhere. So what I did is I went to 605 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 1: Google Trends and I charted, you know, the mentions of 606 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,959 Speaker 1: stock bubble, and I can now definitively claim that we 607 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 1: are in an epic bubble of people calling stock bubble. 608 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: Just do it. You go through Google Trends throwing stock bubble, 609 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: and the chart that comes out is extraordinary. I mean 610 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: it is I think four times greater for x what 611 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: it was at previous highs. Right now, Wow, so like 612 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 1: four x I assume maybe a previous high was around well, 613 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 1: I know, Google trends goes back to what's the first year. 614 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 1: It doesn't go that far um, but it does cover 615 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:01,840 Speaker 1: the nineties and it's it's actually two eighteen was was higher. 616 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 1: It was the previous high, which we've been at a 617 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 1: bubble for five years out right. But it's a great 618 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 1: example too, Like it doesn't actually correlate. You can you 619 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 1: can put it with an SMP five hundred charge to 620 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,959 Speaker 1: see if it had any real information, and it didn't really. 621 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,080 Speaker 1: But that's that's mine. That's that's an interesting one. I 622 00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 1: didn't know how to, Like, it's a qualitative issue that 623 00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,400 Speaker 1: a lot of people are throwing out bubbles, but you 624 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 1: can quantify it. Who in Google treads that they could 625 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,960 Speaker 1: look at the chart. If everyone thinks it's a bubble, 626 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 1: is it impossible that it's a bubble? I mean you 627 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: can you can wrap your head and not trying to 628 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 1: figure out the contrarian take on that. I mean, yeah, 629 00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 1: and it may very well be, but I think, uh, 630 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,240 Speaker 1: we're at a point where I think this market segment 631 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,360 Speaker 1: will just I think you guys will have plenty, plenty 632 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:48,320 Speaker 1: material for this. I think you're right. I think it's 633 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: almost hard to choose every week. Um, but I will say, Mike, 634 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,480 Speaker 1: it's time to pay up. Because Mike promised that if 635 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 1: we got to one fifty seven ratings on Apple Podcasts Marco, 636 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 1: that he would air his flattering high school nickname with us. 637 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,919 Speaker 1: Now I'll say we're currently the last sight checks were 638 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 1: around a hundred seventy two. We need to get to 639 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 1: two hundred for the embarrassing one. Um, so everyone gets 640 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,279 Speaker 1: to Apple Podcasts. I don't leave us some ratings, so 641 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 1: so we'll hear the best from Mike. In the meantime, 642 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,719 Speaker 1: I remembered I had a few other nicknames I could 643 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 1: do like a structured product out of this if we 644 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,799 Speaker 1: get If we get to fifty, I'll tell you I 645 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,439 Speaker 1: will reveal the most embarrassing nickname I've ever had, which 646 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,279 Speaker 1: my older brothers gave to me when I was I 647 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: was very young. But for one fifty seven, you only 648 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 1: get the flattering nickname, and that was Sarah. Most of 649 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 1: my nicknames were awarded to me on the basketball court 650 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 1: and I don't have an impressive basketball resume. I played 651 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 1: a lot, but pretty pretty mediocre lifetime stats. But if 652 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,839 Speaker 1: you were able to compress it to one highlight reel, 653 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 1: I'm telling you it's it's pure fire. I mean, it 654 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,879 Speaker 1: exists only in my imagination because there were no video 655 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 1: cameras on me at any time when I was playing 656 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 1: but on one ground court in the late eighties in 657 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 1: suburban Pennsylvania. I'll set the stage for you here. It's 658 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 1: like Hoosier's I was just on fire. I don't know 659 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,879 Speaker 1: what what became of me, but I was just killing it. 660 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 1: And for every pick up basketball game, there's always one 661 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 1: guy who's just kind of like talking trash the whole 662 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 1: team against against the other team. So he was just 663 00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 1: kind of given the play by play of my performance. 664 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 1: You know, I was going coast to coast laying it up, 665 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 1: and he kept saying, Reagan's on a mission, Reagan's on 666 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,760 Speaker 1: a mission, It's a Reagan mission, and then that turned 667 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 1: into it's a recon mission, a recon. So to this day, 668 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: a bunch of guys from high school still call me 669 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: Recon is the nickname. I know it's disappointing, but that's 670 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 1: what you get for only seven ratings. No, it's a 671 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,200 Speaker 1: good one, and it just means that we'll have to 672 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,839 Speaker 1: have more ratings. Also read this was a great rating 673 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:50,880 Speaker 1: that we got from Brick Brack. Been listening to this 674 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,879 Speaker 1: since it began. I love it in parentheses and don't 675 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,560 Speaker 1: usually write reviews. But we need to hear Mike's nicknames, 676 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,400 Speaker 1: so we need to get more so we can hear 677 00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: the embarrassing. I'm sure that you'll get the poppych bump 678 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 1: after this, so like I'm by the way, Mike, listen, 679 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,920 Speaker 1: we could we could go for like twenty minutes of 680 00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:13,800 Speaker 1: like really really not that impressive basketball stories, but in 681 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 1: your mind that's all that matters. Though, alright, No, I 682 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 1: like basketball, all right, Marco, since you spoke up, we 683 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 1: need one nickname out of you. I know you had 684 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:29,359 Speaker 1: one grown up sometimes you know, um, my last name 685 00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,759 Speaker 1: is like very nickname, herble, so that's what you know. 686 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:35,920 Speaker 1: It was just like Papa. That was like just the 687 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 1: easy thing. And also I find I find that like 688 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,799 Speaker 1: anglophones find it really awesome. So they just call me 689 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 1: by my last name. That's that's that's really all it is, 690 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,960 Speaker 1: and most of my basketball stories involved like backdoor screens 691 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 1: and giving people whiplash. So I don't know, there's nothing 692 00:37:55,719 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 1: as cool as recon Recon Papa and Ponzi's quite quite 693 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 1: the motley crew we've got going on right now. But 694 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 1: next time we will get the other nickname out of Mike. 695 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,840 Speaker 1: I believe in everyone to go and rate the show. 696 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,160 Speaker 1: But Marco, it has been an absolute pleasure having you 697 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 1: on this week. It's been a great time and thanks 698 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Absolutely it's been a pleasure. 699 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 1: Thank you guys. What Goes Up We'll be back next week. 700 00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal 701 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 1: website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd 702 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:36,880 Speaker 1: love it if you took the time to rate and 703 00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,600 Speaker 1: review the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can 704 00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,080 Speaker 1: find us as you can find us on Twitter, follow 705 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,600 Speaker 1: me at Sarah Ponzack, Mike is that Rey Anonymous, and 706 00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,960 Speaker 1: you can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at Podcasts. Also, thank 707 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,280 Speaker 1: you to Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio and the voice 708 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 1: of the New York City Subway System. What Goes Up 709 00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,320 Speaker 1: is produced by Topur Foreheads, the head of Bloomberg podcast 710 00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,480 Speaker 1: is Francesca Levie. Thank for listening, See you next time.