1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action. 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing spect we're sitting. It's 3 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 2: a cash touchdown. That's all we see. Most gamble is 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible. 5 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine and we are underway. 7 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Hour Podcast. I am your host, 8 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and I am joined by Brandon Anderson for 9 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 3: some best bets for NFL Week one. That's right season 10 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 3: finally here we have. We've gone through the off season, 11 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 3: the draft, Me and Brandon literally been through a war, 12 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 3: and it is just now week one. But shortly before 13 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 3: we start, I'm going to go through three trends, just 14 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: certain things that I've been thinking about there in my 15 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: article on the site, kind of leading into what Brandon 16 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 3: is going to be discussing with his So let me 17 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 3: just start off the top here. So it's worth remembering 18 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 3: that during the regular season last year, Favorites dominated from 19 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: an ATS perspective. It was their most profitable from an 20 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 3: ROI since twenty seventeen. Now, overall Favorites ended twenty twenty 21 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 3: four one hundred and ninety five and seventy seven, about 22 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 3: seventy two percent straight up. That was the third best 23 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 3: season since nineteen eighty. Now that was the money line 24 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 3: from regular season favorites. There was a profitable in back 25 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 3: to back years from an ROI perspective, the first time 26 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 3: that has happened since two thousand and three. So favorites 27 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 3: one straight up, that's number one here. Now number two. 28 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 3: I kind of want to talk about this Buffalo and 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 3: Baltimore line because there's an intriguing storyline. So Buffalo opened 30 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 3: minus one and a half. Now Baltimore is minus one 31 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: and a half. So Josh Allen was a home underdog 32 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 3: in the playoffs to the Ravens last year. What did 33 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 3: it do? Opened minus one and a half? Hell thos 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 3: plus one and a half, exactly what the spread has 35 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 3: done currently. Now Buffalo wins that game twenty seven to 36 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 3: twenty five. Now, Josh's last home underdog in a regular 37 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: season game January third, twenty twenty one, against the Dolphins. 38 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 3: So last week of the regular season with that one. Now, 39 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 3: if Buffalo closed as a home underdog, Josh should be 40 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: a home dog three times to Lamar Jackson eight times, 41 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 3: with every other quarterback none more than once. Since it 42 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 3: started twenty twenty two, Josh has faced twenty four QBS 43 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 3: at home in twenty nine total games. He has twenty 44 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 3: five and four straight up been favored in twenty eight 45 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 3: of those games. So that is exactly what's happened with 46 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,839 Speaker 3: Josh Allen. Now, third, I'm gonna give you two week 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 3: one trends. So underdogs is six and a half points 48 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 3: for more forty nine and twenty seven against the spread 49 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 3: in Week one since two thousand and six nineteen seasons. 50 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 3: They are under five hundred ATS in just one of 51 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 3: those nineteen years. So a bunch of big dogs out 52 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 3: there this weekend. Now number two, this is basically just 53 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 3: Philly on Thursday Night football and Denver, which is an 54 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 3: eight and a half point favorite against Tennessee. Favorites of 55 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: eight plus points in Week one haven't finished above five 56 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 3: hundred ATS in Week one since nineteen ninety six, So 57 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 3: you take both games together, they'd have to go two 58 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: and oh. If there was three games, they'd have to 59 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,399 Speaker 3: go two and one. So these big favorites in week 60 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 3: one have not come through. Brandon, I'll bring you in now, 61 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 3: So three completely different things, and you got a lot 62 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 3: of bets coming up, so kind of talk to me. 63 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 3: What's up man? How are you welcome to Week one? Yeah? 64 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: Week one, we made it. We got real football games. 65 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 4: I will have a lot of Week one trends when 66 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 4: they get to our pick some of those in your 67 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 4: article as well, and we'll talk about that Buffalo. 68 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 2: Baltimore line move too. 69 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 4: I think not just that folks are betting on Baltimore, 70 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 4: but why is it? And it's the injury report, so 71 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 4: we'll get back to that as well. 72 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we're going to get into everything. Brandon's 73 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 3: got a lot of best bets. I'll give my opinions 74 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 3: on each of them. But the NFL season is officially here, 75 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 3: and get to the most out of the award winning 76 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 3: Action Network gap. You'll want to be an Action subscriber 77 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 3: because only pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from 78 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 3: experts Sean Kerner, Joe Golan, myself, our entire Action Network team. 79 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 3: Plus you can access our pro projections Power by Kerner, 80 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 3: and our predictive analytics team. To celebrate football's return, we 81 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 3: got a special offer for you. Just go to Actionnework 82 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 3: dot com slash pro get twenty dollars off the annual 83 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 3: price with the promo code Pod twenty Pod twenty, So 84 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 3: do not miss out on the best bets at the 85 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 3: best prices. Visit Actionnework dot Com slash Pro use promo 86 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 3: code po D twenty to get twenty dollars off a 87 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 3: year of Action Pro. Okay, Brandon, it is time to 88 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 3: get started. NFL Week one bets bets now. If you 89 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 3: want to tail some of these bets, look for the 90 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 3: quick slip link in the podcast and video description, or 91 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 3: go to Actionnework dot Com slash bet now b e 92 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 3: t naw bet now. All the bets will be listed there. Brandon, 93 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 3: we are going to start off in the NFCS. What 94 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 3: you got for me? 95 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: This is your best death. 96 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: First pick of the year. 97 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 4: How could it be anything but the New York Football 98 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 4: Giants plus six and a half at the Commanders. Look, 99 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 4: the history of this rivalry is a lot closer than 100 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 4: you'd think, including last year. As good as Washington was, 101 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 4: they won the games, but by five points and three 102 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 4: points against the Giants. They were close, and they've only 103 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 4: won for the last thirteen games against the Giants. That 104 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 4: includes those two wins and a one point win. So 105 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 4: if you put it that way, Washington's only covered a 106 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 4: six and a half point spread one time the last 107 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: thirteen games against the Giants. I'm honestly not positive either 108 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 4: team is that great. Like, we know about the Giants, 109 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 4: but Washington, Jane Daniels awesome. We're all excited, but we 110 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 4: know about sophomore Stumps and how they can come back 111 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 4: to earth Beyond him. The linebackers are pretty good. I 112 00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 4: don't know, that might be kind of it. There's not 113 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 4: a lot of other strength. The giants one strength is 114 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 4: their defensive front. We know that with Dexter Lawrence, with 115 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: Abdul Carter in that front. Seven pass rush, I think 116 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 4: that's key in this game. But the Commanders breaking in 117 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 4: two new tackles. Larmy Tensel's new on the blind side, 118 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 4: Josh Connery, the rookie is starting on the other side 119 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 4: at tackle. No Sam caused me yet. This line is 120 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 4: kind of in flux, and early in the season, betting 121 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 4: on lines that have been the same guys coming back 122 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 4: playing together as a unit or fading the ones that 123 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 4: are not can be a big edge. I think if 124 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 4: you look, Washington's offense is their better unit. The Giants 125 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 4: defense is their better unit. And I think that that's 126 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 4: a relatively even matchup. Washington's defense is bad, Giants offense 127 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 4: is bad. I'm not sure this should be so far 128 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 4: apart certainly a full touchdown a part, and all that 129 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 4: was before I checked bat Labs and got into the 130 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 4: trends Avan Trens bonanza. It's a thirteen to nothing trends 131 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 4: shutout in my bet lab system for the Giants. Let 132 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 4: me give you some Week one and a few others. 133 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 4: Some of my favorites that stood out Week one rode 134 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 4: underdogs that missed the playoffs last year. Since twenty eleven, 135 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 4: sixty one, thirty six and two against the spread sixty 136 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 4: three percent. For the Giants Week one Division underdogs, we 137 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 4: know that one that's going to come up a lot. 138 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 4: Since twenty fifteen, sixty six percent, they're covering two thirds 139 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 4: of the time Division underdogs. How about Week one teams 140 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 4: that missed the playoffs versus teams that made the playoffs 141 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 4: in the division. Listen to this one forty one, fifteen 142 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 4: and one against the spread seventy three percent. That's almost 143 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 4: three fourth the time. All those are Week one trends. 144 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 4: Beyond that, Russell Wilson, new Giants quarterback sixty five percent 145 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 4: cover right as an underdog for his career seventy one 146 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 4: percent in the division, dan Quinn is the worst coach 147 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 4: profitable active coach at under forty percent cover rate as 148 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 4: a favorite is just trends every direction in The Giants favor. 149 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 2: Plus six at most books. I'm fine with that. 150 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 4: ESPN bet does have a six and a half, so 151 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 4: of course grab that half a point there, and yeah, 152 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 4: maybe a little nibble on the plus two to twenty 153 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 4: five money line. This feels like a close game and 154 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,559 Speaker 4: one of those that could really wreck some survivor pools 155 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 4: in week one. 156 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: I like the Giants here. 157 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, market agrees with you. Line was like seven for 158 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 3: most of the summer. Down to six. I like I said, 159 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 3: six and a half. I think that's a key one. 160 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 3: So if you want to get this bet in, I 161 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 3: would look for the six and a half. It is 162 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 3: coming down. I've probably seen closing under six, so I 163 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 3: think at six and a half you're getting some good 164 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 3: value with the Giants. All right, your second bet. It's 165 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 3: a fun afternoon game. I'll give it to you. It's 166 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 3: a Texans rams. What are you doing there? 167 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Texans here, But I'm gonna play the 168 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 4: first half line plus two and a half rather than 169 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 4: the full game. We'll get into that. Why we've talked 170 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 4: a lot about the Rams. I'm pretty worried about this team, 171 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 4: especially early in the season, so we faded them last year. 172 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 4: It looked great early they started one and four, and 173 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 4: then they got hot late. But this is a team 174 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 4: that's had some slow starts lately, and now Matt Stafford 175 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 4: no preseason games, not even those scrimmage times. He's just 176 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 4: not had much time to practice yet and overlooked because 177 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 4: of that. Alaric Jackson, the left tackle is out. You 178 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 4: do not want your left tackle out against this defensive front, 179 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 4: Will Anderson, Daniel Hunter. They're gonna be all over Matt Stafford. 180 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 4: And Stafford's play has been very dependent on his line 181 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 4: play over the years, so that's a rough setup. Texans 182 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 4: are my number one defense. The Rams offense is so 183 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 4: much under McVeigh about precision and rhythm and repetition. 184 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 2: They haven't had any they haven't had. 185 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 4: A chance to get this together with no left tackle, 186 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 4: no quarterback practicing. I think if you look at the 187 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 4: matchup Texans defense, they're easily the best unit on the field. 188 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 4: Rams defense is the worst. I don't honestly know about 189 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 4: the offense is given the injuries gave what we don't 190 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 4: know about Nick Cayley, the new coordinator in Houston. The 191 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 4: Rams I think have some weak spots. I think Nico 192 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 4: Collins can feast in this game, and they might be 193 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 4: able to get beat over the middle linebacker. So I 194 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:03,079 Speaker 4: like the Texans here. Why first half offensive line worries? 195 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 4: They go both ways. Texans are the worst line of 196 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 4: the league and the Rams defensive front pretty good, So 197 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 4: I don't necessarily love that and want a huge piece 198 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 4: of the whole game. And then Stafford the rust from 199 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 4: a guy that didn't play in the preseason. Rhem Palmer 200 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 4: has a statter a colleague here. Last two seasons, quarterbacks 201 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 4: that did not play in the preseason three and twelve 202 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 4: ats in just the first half. It's that early rust, right, 203 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 4: Maybe you settle in later, but right out of the gates, 204 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,439 Speaker 4: three and twelve the first half. And then don't forget 205 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 4: a stat that's probably not relevant anymore, but just in case, 206 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 4: last season, Texans thirteen and four in the first half 207 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 4: ATS four and thirteen in the second half. I don't 208 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 4: think that's probably a thing for this year, but just 209 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 4: in case it is, let's get our first half and 210 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 4: get out of there. So Texans first half plus two 211 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 4: and a half probably I'll end up doing like a 212 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 4: money line plus one twenty five if you want to 213 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 4: do the halftime full time money line. I do like 214 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 4: Texans to win here. I think it's kind of a 215 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 4: lucky spot getting this Rams team with Stafford no preseason, 216 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 4: but first half play plus two and a half is 217 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 4: the play. 218 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, with the line already coming down to it looks 219 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 3: two and a half for the full game. Two and 220 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 3: a half for the first half also seems very tasty. 221 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 3: I put it in my article. But first half, second 222 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 3: half even for Stroud when you look at Splits last year, 223 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 3: about sixteen points different in terms of passer rating, so 224 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 3: I see it as well. All right, this is probably 225 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: my favorite, one favorite game of the week. Packers Lions. 226 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 3: Which side do you like? Are you with me? Yeah? 227 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: That Sunday afternoon slate is real. 228 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 3: It's wild. 229 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 4: We load it up on all the leftovers in the 230 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 4: early part and then it's just loaded the afternoon. 231 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: Packers Lions big one. 232 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 4: Give me the Packers MIAs one and a half at 233 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 4: ESPN Bett if you've got it anywhere in the market 234 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 4: one and a half, two to two and a half. 235 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 4: As long as we're below three, I'm gonna feel really 236 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 4: good here. To me, this line is a misread on 237 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 4: what these teams are. I think this is like its 238 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 4: last year, and last year I think that these teams 239 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 4: were mostly equal. Now they had fifteen wins for the Lions, 240 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 4: eleven for the Packers. Book at the metrics DVA offense third, 241 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 4: Detroit fourth, green Bay fifth, and seventh on defense, they're 242 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 4: about equal. 243 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 2: The Lions last year were a little bit better at everything, 244 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 2: and they're gonna hear. 245 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 4: The stat this week about well Detroit has dominated Matt 246 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 4: Lafleur lately. They've won six of the last seven, hardly dominant. 247 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 4: Five of those seven are one score games. These are 248 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,079 Speaker 4: close games. Detroit's winning that matters. The Packers got a 249 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 4: win to cover mist one and a half. I don't 250 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: know if you know how that works. We need to 251 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 4: win here, but I don't think this is this huge 252 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 4: dominant rivalry. And to me, this is forget about what 253 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 4: was folks on what is Lions offense? We talked so 254 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 4: much about it. Ben Johnson has gone the offensive line 255 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 4: loses Ragnow and Zeitler. We got Jared Goff outdoors and 256 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 4: what looks like kind of a windy game. We got 257 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 4: Jared Goff no preseason, so that also fits that first 258 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 4: half trend. And if you want just the first half, 259 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 4: Packers lines defense not healthy yet on the line, Hutchinston 260 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 4: still getting back, leave mcneila's out, their tackles are missing. 261 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 4: Packers defense. They just said Michah Parsons, they're not what they. 262 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 2: Were last year. 263 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 4: And importantly, we don't know how they're gonna deploy Micah Parsons, 264 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 4: which means the Lions can't and prep for that. We 265 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 4: don't know what he's gonna look like in the system. 266 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 4: And I think not having that tape is a really 267 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 4: big swing. So last year the Lions were a little 268 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 4: better at everything. This year, I think the Packers are. 269 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 4: I think the Packers are just slightly the better team 270 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 4: to bet on continuity. The Lions losing the trenches, they 271 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 4: lose both of their play callers. 272 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 2: So this is a debut both ways. Here and Week. 273 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 4: One road dogs of six or less that made last 274 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 4: year's playoffs. So that's Detroit, you made the playoffs. We 275 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 4: anchor to that. We think you're really good. So if 276 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 4: you're an underdog anyway, that should give us a warning sign. 277 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,679 Speaker 4: Those teams are seventeen thirty two and three in week one, 278 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 4: thirty five percent cover rate. Give me the Packers minus 279 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 4: one and a half or anything under three if you 280 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 4: got it, And I think if you want Packers' futures, 281 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 4: this is your chance in the division because once they 282 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 4: beat the Lions here, you lose your shot. We're on 283 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 4: Bears Island, but the Packers are my favorite in the division. 284 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 4: It's plus one eighty lost a little value with the 285 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 4: Parsons deal, but you're never gonna back if they win 286 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 4: this game. So give me the Packers minus one and 287 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 4: a half. I think they take care of the Lions here. 288 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned the wind looks stronger in the first half, 289 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 3: so you know, maybe green Bay first half is something 290 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 3: else you want to look at. And the line movement, 291 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 3: I mean this open Detroit minus one and a half 292 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 3: when the line opened over the summer. Now you have 293 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 3: the one and a half, it's up to two and 294 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 3: a half. It's some spots, so definitely try to shop 295 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 3: for the best number there. All right, Sunday night, football. 296 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 3: I mean this is ridiculous. I mean, after the afternoon 297 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 3: slate we have, we sit back and have like fifteen 298 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 3: minutes to get in bets for Ravens Bills. So what 299 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 3: is your best best for that game. 300 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 4: I'm gonna play the Ravens play the first half money line, 301 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 4: so it's minus one of five at ESPN bet. We'll 302 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 4: talk about exactly why I'm playing that specific bet. This 303 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 4: is about putting my money where my mouth is. I've 304 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 4: been talking big talk about the Ravens and all the 305 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 4: podcasts we did. How many rankings podcasts. The Ravens are 306 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 4: top seven quarterback, skill position, offensive line, offense, defense, special teams, coaching, 307 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 4: literally everything they ranked top seven. And I have the 308 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 4: Bills slightly down from where they were last year. I 309 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 4: have the Ravens lapping the field. So if I'm getting 310 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 4: basically a coin flip odds here, i gotta be taking 311 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 4: Baltimore right. So we know this game, We've seen this matchup. 312 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 2: We just saw it. 313 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 4: Baltimore has been seeing their nightmares all off season. They 314 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 4: lost by two. Mark Jackson fumbles twice in the first half. 315 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 4: Mark Andrews has the drop at the end like shefters 316 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 4: tweeting about Mark Andrews drop. 317 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 2: What happened in the game is the Ravens outgained. 318 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 4: One hundred and forty three yards and they frankly were 319 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 4: the better team and probably should have won. Now they didn't. 320 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 4: You gotta win the game see in January. But don't 321 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 4: forget they played early last season and the Ravens crushed 322 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 4: them thirty five to ten. They had almost two hundred 323 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 4: yards more in that game, and consistently they are running 324 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 4: all over Buffalo. They had two hundred and seventy one 325 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 4: rushing yards on thirty four attempts in that game. I 326 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 4: think this Todd Munkin offense can clean up against Sean 327 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 4: mcdermot's defense. That defense has not been great against the 328 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 4: top quarterbacks and offenses in the league. And there's no 329 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 4: one better at that right now than Baltimore. Now back 330 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 4: to the thing you brought up at the beginning, why 331 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 4: the line flip, I think it's the injuries Buffalo at 332 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 4: cornerback Christian Benford and Tredevius White, the two starting corners, 333 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 4: both groin injury. 334 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 2: Right now. 335 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 4: We'll see if they play it, we'll see if they finish. 336 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 4: There are already missing Maxwell Harriston, the rookie first round 337 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 4: pick on ir at corner. So that's your top three 338 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 4: corners missing against the league's number one passing attack last year. 339 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 4: Are not necessarily missing, but limited by the way. What's 340 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 4: with the groin injuries in Buffalo? Kean Coleman pops up 341 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 4: on the report this week, Tyler Bass the both growing 342 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 4: injuries there. Shakira is already coming back. Not a growing injury, thankfully, 343 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 4: but just lots of injuries here. Receivers, cornerback cluster injuries. 344 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 4: Not something I like. I don't love Isaiah Likely and 345 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 4: Patrick Ricard missing for the Ravens. That's a tight end 346 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 4: and a full back. It shouldn't mean much, but it's 347 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 4: the Ravens. Those positions matter a lot for this team. 348 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 4: So here's where I'm gonna get to. The first half. 349 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 4: Don't love that about Baltimore. Don't love Josh Allen's second 350 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 4: half splits sixty six percent ats for his career in 351 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 4: the second half, But we know the Lamar Jackson trend 352 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 4: first half Lamar fifty eight, thirty four and two sixty 353 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 4: three percent ats. So I don't really want to leave 354 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:45,120 Speaker 4: a back door open for something funky. And then here's 355 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 4: the line. If you play first half spread. I'm seeing 356 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 4: right now a minus point five at plus one oh five. 357 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 4: We're playing money line instead of minus one oh five. 358 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 4: So let me help you out just a little quick 359 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 4: lesson here. We're playing ten cents on the dollar because 360 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 4: if we're tied at the half in the bet we're 361 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 4: taking with the money line, we push, we get our 362 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 4: money back. If you play the mayas half a point, 363 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 4: you'll lose that bet. Ten cents is not a big swing. 364 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 4: I'm not normally the guy to pay etor we know this. 365 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 4: I like the long shots, but at ten cents give 366 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 4: me the tie. 367 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 2: The bills are pretty good, but I like the. 368 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 4: Ravens here first half money line, and if the Ravens 369 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 4: win this one, this might be your last chance to 370 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 4: get that Lamar Jackson MVP ticket in at plus five fifty. 371 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that sounds right. Lamar is crazy. Numbers 372 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 3: in the first half with John Harbaugh over the years 373 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 3: also comes into play. Josh, you mentioned good in the 374 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 3: second half. When you look at our bet Labs data. 375 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 3: When you talk about tickets on this game right now, 376 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 3: about thirty three percent of tickets on Buffalo, which would 377 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 3: be about second fus for Josh Allen since twenty nineteen. 378 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 3: So at this rate, I mean Josh Allen one of 379 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 3: the more backed quarterbacks week to week by betters when 380 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 3: you look back at our software, and not in week one, 381 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 3: which is fascinating, especially at home. All Right, so we're 382 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 3: gonna go from Texans and you know a bunch of 383 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,719 Speaker 3: these great games, and now you're gonna make everyone here 384 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 3: about Steelers Jets. So I assume it's not the over. 385 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 4: It is not the over. We're going under under on 386 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 4: a Steelers game. Who could have thunk it? Kind of 387 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 4: interest in this game? Right, we get Aaron Rodgers and 388 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,479 Speaker 4: justin the fields, like the double Revenge game, they swapped 389 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 4: teams and now it's a delicious narrative game. 390 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 2: How are these teams gonna score? Right? 391 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 4: We're Aaron Rodgers, no preseason, So there's another one of 392 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 4: those rust factors. And it's not just no preseason. 393 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 2: New team. 394 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 4: We don't know what it looks like with Arthur Smith. 395 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 4: We don't know if he's got connection with DK Metcalf. 396 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 4: We don't know how it looks with that new line 397 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 4: in Pittsburgh. A lot of young guys, they're just no 398 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 4: proof of concept, and the Jets defense is pretty talented. 399 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 4: We think they probably bounced back a little bit, so 400 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 4: I'm not sure Pittsburgh is gonna really just put up 401 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 4: a huge number here. 402 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,719 Speaker 2: I think got the Jets. You lose. Poor Jets. 403 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 4: Elijah Greer Tucker like two days for the season, out 404 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 4: for the season, terror past offensive lineman. Now you're missing 405 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,360 Speaker 4: your best lineman. Was a pretty young line I think 406 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 4: already youngest in the league against the Steelers. This incredible 407 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 4: front seven, all the pass rush. We don't really know 408 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 4: what the Jets offense will be under Tanner Engstrand. This 409 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 4: whole coaching staff is new. Will they run a lot? 410 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 4: Can they run on Pittsburgh? 411 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 2: Maybe? I don't really mind that either. Run the clock. 412 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 4: Just get this game off of my screen. Run it 413 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 4: straight out. Hit the under justin the fields against Pittsburgh. 414 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 4: The defense that practiced against him all last season, so 415 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 4: they know the. 416 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 2: Stuff that he does. 417 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 4: I just don't see how either team's supposed to score here. 418 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 4: This is already the lowest total on the board and 419 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,399 Speaker 4: dropping thirty nine and a half at open thirty eight 420 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 4: and a half. Now, usually those lines cannot go low 421 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 4: enough when it starts to go that way and we 422 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 4: don't really lose much at thirty nine. As long as 423 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 4: it's above thirty seven, that's a bit of a key, 424 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 4: should be fine. And we know we love the stat 425 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin Road unders in the first ten games of 426 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 4: the season sixty five percent to the under Mike Tomlin 427 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 4: for his career and just since twenty fourteen, so about 428 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 4: the last decade, forty and eleven to the under seventy 429 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 4: eight percent hit rate. That is an ungodly stat. You 430 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 4: almost have to back that blind with that much data. 431 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 4: They're going under by five points a game. I looked 432 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,439 Speaker 4: back last year Week one, I played one total on 433 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 4: the podcast. Guess what it was, Mike Tomlin Road under 434 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 4: We're back, baby, back on the horse. Sometimes the obvious 435 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 4: pick is the good one too. So Steelers Jets under 436 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 4: thirty eight and a half. Maybe I will do the 437 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 4: mind shaft, you know, maybe like an under thirty four 438 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 4: and a half or something. 439 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 2: Keep an eye on the app for them. I make 440 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 2: sure you get action a pro. 441 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 4: You'll see those that they come out and a little 442 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 4: warning sign here. Doesn't this just feel like that game 443 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 4: in Week one that the Steelers blow and that Aaron 444 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 4: Rodgers blow and everyone has to talk about it all week. 445 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 4: If it goes under, if there's only like thirty points 446 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 4: all game and it comes down to a field goal 447 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 4: or something. I don't know, I may have to look 448 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 4: at like an under and a Jets money line parlay. 449 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 4: If it's low and close, that puts some value on 450 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 4: the dog. I think the Jets are live here. 451 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, Jets three nothing. I mean, we have a ticket 452 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 3: on lowest points score this year, so let's at least 453 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 3: start with that. I looked up one thing while you 454 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,199 Speaker 3: were talking, so this is just fun. Though. Totals in 455 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 3: Week one thirty eight and a half or lower only 456 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 3: happened four times since twenty fourteen, all four games under, 457 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 3: So at least that starts well for you. 458 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:33,919 Speaker 1: There thunder, lightning round the thunder, all right, Props, escalators, 459 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: and long shots. 460 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 3: So we've got the best bets' best best bets out 461 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 3: of the way. Now you can kind of get into 462 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 3: some of the props and some of these other things. 463 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 3: So we're gonna start with Bengals Browns. Who do you 464 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 3: like in that game? 465 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: Love? 466 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 2: David Joku? Here, this is a receiving escalator. I got 467 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 2: four levels for you. 468 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 4: So this is my top prop n escalator on the 469 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 4: board in Week one. Joe Burrow has not been great 470 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 4: against the Browns. He's not been great early in these 471 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 4: first couple of games. We know all that at this 472 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 4: is probably our biggest weather game of the weekend, fifteen 473 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 4: mili an hour wins. It looks like that helps. I 474 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 4: think with this bet on Njoku because you get some 475 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 4: shorter passes. 476 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 2: Maybe this is about Joe Flacco. 477 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 4: I think Flacco gives the Browns pass catchers a chance 478 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 4: against a pretty awful Bengals defense who last year allowed 479 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 4: the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends. Here's the 480 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 4: stat line. If you were just tight end every game 481 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 4: against the Bengals, you put up one hundred eleven catches 482 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 4: for eleven hundred yards and ten scores, you are a 483 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 4: fantasy god. If you just played the Bengals every week 484 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 4: as a tight end, ten of those tight ends at 485 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 4: fifty five yards or more, including Davin Joku, his best 486 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 4: two of his three best games last year were against 487 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 4: the Bengals. Eight for sixty six, ten for seventy six, 488 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 4: high volume, plenty of yards, and we already know he's 489 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 4: got chemistry with Flacco We saw this in twenty twenty 490 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 4: three that had five games, and he was a monster 491 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 4: in five games, four touchdowns, thirty catches for three hundred 492 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 4: ninety yards a targets a game at least six catches 493 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 4: all but one ninety yards or more over half of 494 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 4: those games. So I want yards, I want receptions. I 495 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 4: want the whole thing with David and Joku. Over forty 496 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 4: eight and a half receiving yards. That's the bottom rung, 497 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 4: and then we'll go seventy yards or more plus two 498 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 4: fifty at bet three six five, and then I'm kind 499 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 4: of switching volume to receptions. Get some short passes in here. 500 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 4: Eight catches plus five twenty five, ten catches fifteen to 501 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 4: one at bet three six five, top of the ladder. 502 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 4: Remember he did that against the Bengals last year. So 503 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 4: keep an eye on again. Action Pro watching the app 504 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 4: if you're wondering about unit sizing and all these escalators. 505 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 4: But in Djoku from forty eight and a half yards 506 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 4: to seventy and eight and ten catches all the way up, 507 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 4: let's go. 508 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,719 Speaker 3: It's just an honest bystander, which is I is what 509 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 3: I am on this podcast at the moment. You have 510 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 3: any worry about Fanin out there, like you know, or 511 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 3: do you just you just assume the najok who's going 512 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 3: to get the majority, especially week one, and they're going 513 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:00,479 Speaker 3: to kind of work him in a little bit. 514 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think more the latter. 515 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 4: I think we kind of assume Djoku and the chemistry 516 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 4: for now, and you get the rookie. I know it's 517 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 4: a hot name and everyone's excited, but you know, maybe 518 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 4: it ends up being a little bit more of a split. 519 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 4: I think for now, I kind of can assume maybe 520 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 4: that's buying us slight value on the numbers and keeping 521 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,719 Speaker 4: these numbers down a bit as well. So you know, 522 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 4: it's tough early in week one. You never know how 523 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 4: some of these things go. Fanin's the hot name, but 524 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 4: I think I ought to see it, and you know, 525 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 4: he may just may have to pay him off. 526 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 3: All right, Time for your favorite team in the NFL. 527 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 3: We are going to be talking to Seattle Seahawks and 528 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 3: the San Francisco forty nine ers. What is your prop? 529 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, we know how much I'm in on the Niners. 530 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 4: I know your skepticism and the Niners, and I'm actually 531 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 4: gonna join Skeptical Island for one week here. I don't 532 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 4: think this is a great spot for San Fran. Injuries 533 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 4: at receiver in the trenches. First, Robert solid game, tough 534 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 4: game in Seattle. Specifically, I think Mike McDonald was brought 535 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 4: into this division because his defense is great against Shanahan 536 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 4: and McVay offenses, and specifically this matchup. I don't love 537 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,440 Speaker 4: Seattle's run game against the San Fran run defense for 538 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,880 Speaker 4: the Niners. So I'm gonna play Kenneth Walker prop I'm 539 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 4: gonna play over fifty nine and a half rushing yards. 540 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 4: Niners defense last year pretty good still, despite all the 541 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 4: injuries against the pass, bottom ten against the run, really 542 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,400 Speaker 4: bad defensive tackles. 543 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: It's a real concern for me. Forty nine ers backer. 544 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 4: Niners were fifth worst at fantasy running back points last year. 545 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 4: They allowed ten running backs he hit seventy yards rushing. 546 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 4: They alled the most rushing touchdowns running backs two with eighteen. 547 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 4: And we saw in the preseason just a little bit 548 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 4: Klint Kubiak that run game looked pretty good. He's got 549 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 4: that young offensive line looking much better than where I 550 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 4: put them thirtieth in the league. So if they actually 551 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 4: come out running, I think Walkers should look good. Get 552 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 4: a touchdown both games against the Niners last year. So 553 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 4: give me over fifty nine and a half rushing yards 554 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 4: and then a little slight escalator fifty nine and a 555 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 4: half plus a touchdown at plus three twenty three at Fandel. 556 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, coming off the injury last year, I mean might be, 557 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 3: you know, even dealing with some of the soreness from 558 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 3: it now. Still pretty healthy going into week one. Pretty fresh, 559 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 3: understandable even coming off the injury. So I kind of 560 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 3: like this, at least off the bat. Kind of a 561 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 3: shorter number when you consider his talent. Okay, next game, 562 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 3: we're gonna be rolling to Brazil for this one. So 563 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 3: Chargers Chiefs, what's the bet here? 564 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want something for the Friday night game, right, 565 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 4: This will come out Friday, so it's officially the first 566 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 4: game we can bet on on the podcast. We have something. 567 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 4: Give me a lad McConkie. We bet him on season 568 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 4: long props. We're just doing the same thing here. Over 569 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 4: seventy and a half receiving yards. This should be a 570 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 4: fun game. Chiefs have won seven in a row agains 571 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 4: with Chargers, but all but one of those by seven 572 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,399 Speaker 4: points or less. Wins by one, two, three, three and 573 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 4: in overtime, so I think we get a close game. 574 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 4: I think mcconakee should have a big game. Chiefs were 575 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 4: bottom ten against wide receiver one last year. The last 576 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 4: eleven weeks they played wide receiver one had at least 577 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,439 Speaker 4: forty eight yards every single one of those games at 578 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,719 Speaker 4: least seventy yards, and over half of those average seventy two. 579 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 4: So that's right about this number. But McConkie is not 580 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 4: an average sort of guy. He was on fire to 581 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 4: end the season. He had eighty three yards or more 582 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 4: six to the last seven games. That was like almost 583 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 4: a sixteen hundred yard pace over that stretch. So get 584 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 4: those season long props in as well. We saw in 585 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 4: Brazil last year like an ice rink kind of let 586 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 4: us some big plays. I don't mind that on mconkee 587 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 4: as well, if he gets you break along one at 588 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 4: some point. No escalators here, just a simple prop over 589 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 4: seven and a half receiving yards, Lad Maconkeye. 590 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the terrain's the biggest question, Like no 591 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 3: one has any idea what the field's going to be 592 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,719 Speaker 3: like and how everything of that nature's going to go. 593 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 3: So I have no issue with the slipping CB and 594 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: Mconkie's going to get looked at a ton in this game, 595 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 3: so I could see that happening very quickly. All right, 596 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 3: I love this next bet because I just love the 597 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 3: concept behind this bet. One of the biggest spreads on 598 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 3: the board this week. Tennessee and Denver, what are you 599 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 3: doing in the game. 600 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 4: I'm taking a shot. I'm taking I'm gonna go out 601 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 4: a hero. Give me the Titans money line plus three fifty. 602 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 2: Just just a nibble. 603 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 4: This is a crazy bet. The Broncos the first two 604 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 4: weeks at home per Anthony to bunder old Colleague fifty 605 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 4: six and fifteen. You do not want to bet against 606 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 4: this team in Denver, especially with the rookie number one 607 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 4: quarterback cam Ward road debut against this attacking defense. You 608 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 4: had the stats in your article rookie week one starter 609 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 4: eight and twenty one straight up on the road. Number 610 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 4: one quarterbacks making their debut five twenty two and one 611 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 4: straight up Cale Williams won last year, first time since 612 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 4: not Derek Carr David Carr in two thousand and two. 613 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 4: Ridiculous numbers. Never bet in this spot on Tennessee. 614 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 2: It makes no sense. 615 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,959 Speaker 4: That's why we're doing it all the trends, just like 616 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 4: a whole slew of underdog trends on Tennessee this early 617 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 4: in the season, a team being this big of a 618 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 4: favorite should be a warning sign. We just shouldn't be 619 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 4: this confident in almost any team. 620 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 3: Yet. 621 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,959 Speaker 4: We talked a lot about the Titans improvement on the line, 622 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 4: at special teams and frankly at quarterback with cam mood 623 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 4: against will Us. Even in the opener here you have 624 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 4: the stat in your article bon Nicks unbeaten eight no 625 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 4: ats and straight up as a favorite. That sounds like 626 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 4: a stad dying to be broken. Let's get it out 627 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 4: of here here. I'll play Titans money line plus three fifty. 628 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I feel like you have to cover, like 629 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 3: the principle of the bet with the eight and a 630 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 3: half while it's still out there, because eight's become more 631 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 3: key over the eight, Like if Tennessee's going to be 632 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 3: in the game, that's gonna that's a pretty decent number 633 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 3: to be attached to going into it. All right, your 634 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 3: last bet here before we get into a look ahead 635 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 3: for week two, Because you're Brandon Anderson, how could we not? 636 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 3: Dolphins colts can't believe this is even in there, So 637 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 3: you've got a bet, we got to make it. Let's 638 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 3: do it. 639 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 2: I honestly I can't believe it too. 640 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 4: This was my first cross off of the season, and 641 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 4: I was like, I don't know anything about either of 642 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 4: these teams. This is a coin flip line. I don't 643 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 4: know what I think about either of these teams. Like, 644 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 4: I didn't really bet much future is on them. The 645 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 4: vibes are terrible both ways. Last year, offense and defense 646 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 4: by dvway both teams anywhere from nineteenth to twenty second, 647 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 4: Like every unit is just like not average, definitely. 648 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 2: Not good, not terrible. Just who cares? 649 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 4: Who cares about these teams? Why do we care about 650 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 4: the team? Why are we betting them? Why am I 651 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 4: wearing my Dolphins shirt? It's the only time I probably 652 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 4: be able to wear it all season. That's why. So 653 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 4: Colts in Week one, for some reason that makes no 654 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 4: sense to me, are terrible. The Colts are never good 655 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 4: in Week one. Last year they covered by a one point. 656 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 4: It's the first time they covered in a decade. They 657 00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 4: don't show up in Week one. But more importantly, and 658 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,959 Speaker 4: here's the angle, when Miami does win, it's not close. 659 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 4: What if the Colts just aren't good. What if the 660 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 4: Dolphins aren't good, they might not be, then we're gonna lose. 661 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 4: But when Miami plays well and right now they're healthy, 662 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 4: Right now, Tua and Tyreek and Hn and those guys 663 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 4: are supposed to go out there. Last two years with 664 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 4: Tua eighteen wins, Eleven of those eighteen are by at 665 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 4: least a touchdown. Eight of those eleven are by fourteen 666 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 4: plus points. So when Miami wins, it's usually not close. 667 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 4: We know they roll up the points. We know from 668 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 4: last seasons. Mike McDaniel usually has kind of a surprise 669 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 4: in Week one, a little twist, something new he's trying 670 00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 4: out on Indy. Lou Annarumo did not do well in 671 00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 4: Bengals last year with his defense, and now it's a 672 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 4: new system. I don't want to debut a new system 673 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 4: against whatever Mike McDaniel's doing out there. And we don't 674 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 4: know what's on tape. So could this get ugly for Indy? 675 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 4: If it does, then secondary's beatable. But I don't think 676 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 4: Daniel Jones is the guy to go get that. I 677 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,959 Speaker 4: don't want Daniel Jones script from behind. So alternate plays 678 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,000 Speaker 4: on Miami minus six and a half plus two to 679 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 4: forty at at MGM minus thirteen and a half plus 680 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 4: five to sixty yet fandul and specifically, I'm not taking 681 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 4: the median outcome. I'm not taking just the Dolphins. I'm 682 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 4: not taking just the money line. I don't want any 683 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,479 Speaker 4: part of that. If they do win, I think they 684 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 4: win by a bunch. So I'm only taking the altsier 685 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:04,480 Speaker 4: and it might be the only time I care about 686 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:05,479 Speaker 4: the Dolphins all season. 687 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, we should hope, So I don't know how many 688 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,200 Speaker 3: times I can take it, especially after the conversations we've 689 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 3: had with them and all these other podcasts. I feel 690 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 3: like one thing you could do with the Dolphins maybe 691 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,480 Speaker 3: some sort of touchdown SGP with these Alts, like if 692 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 3: you want to have a good time, something like Malik 693 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 3: Washington or like, if they're going to do this, I 694 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 3: think they're gonna find one of those people in the 695 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 3: end zone and say it's not Tyreek because maybe you 696 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 3: know he's just a decoy out there and the chemistry's bad. 697 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,479 Speaker 3: You know, I would look waddled Waller like there's probably 698 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 3: an opportunity with some inflated numbers, So I like that direction. 699 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, a favorite how could that happen? What do 700 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 3: you all right, Luke? At look ahead to week two? 701 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 3: So I love this one just because I love the team. 702 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 3: And I think people can already get an idea that 703 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,479 Speaker 3: you're not so hot on the team you're going against 704 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 3: here because you're fating them in week one as well. 705 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 3: So what do you like in week two? 706 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 2: Let's talk ahead? 707 00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 1: Just give it a shot. 708 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 3: How about next week? 709 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 1: Back out my mind. 710 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:03,440 Speaker 3: My mindset? 711 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, so we'll do one look ahead to close up 712 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 4: the pod each week. Here's remember, the goal of the 713 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 4: look ahead is not just to grab the team that 714 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:12,760 Speaker 4: I like, but it's the goal is to get ahead 715 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 4: of this weekend's games, get the line now that we 716 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 4: can't get later. So we're gonna go to the very 717 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 4: next game after week one, Thursday night, Green Bay at 718 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,919 Speaker 4: home against Washington. And if I tell you those two teams, 719 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 4: you already know which one we're betting. Give me the 720 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,120 Speaker 4: Packers minus two and a half, and that is important 721 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 4: at either Caesars or about three six five. We want 722 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,440 Speaker 4: to get it under the key number. I don't think 723 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 4: it's gonna be there after this weekend. Like you said, Evan, 724 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 4: we're betting Packers against the Lions. If the Packers beat 725 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 4: the Lions, that's gonna matter. And if the Commanders struggle 726 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 4: against the Giants or even lose, we're fading them with 727 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 4: New York, then that's gonna go that direction as well. 728 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 4: One of these teams is third in my power ranks, 729 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 4: the other one for me is fringe bottom ten. Like 730 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 4: this is a golf in class between these teams. I 731 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,359 Speaker 4: think again, kind of a misread on where these teams 732 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 4: are at. And frankly, Packers minus two and a half 733 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 4: some books right now against the Lions. How are the 734 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 4: Commanders and Lions getting the same line. I think what 735 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 4: happened is the Parsons trade pushed the line a little 736 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 4: bit down, but only for one game. 737 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 2: We haven't adjusted yet later. 738 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 4: Guess what, Michael Person that four and a half sacks 739 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 4: against the Commanders last year in the two games, So 740 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 4: he's gonna probably enjoy playing Jane Daniels short week early 741 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,799 Speaker 4: in the season, getting Matt Lafleur against Dan Quinn. That's 742 00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 4: a big advantage. Matlafleur first three games the season twelve 743 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 4: and three against the spread. No good against Dan Campbell 744 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 4: because he's that good too. But in week two home 745 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,840 Speaker 4: short week. I love the Packers here mines two and 746 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 4: a half. Grab that below the key number. It's going 747 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 4: to be passed it on the wrong side, I think 748 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,920 Speaker 4: if you wait. So that's the look ahead Packers Mines 749 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 4: two half on Sunday or on Thursday night against Washington. 750 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, and if you're listening to this run, don't walk 751 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 3: because I think that number is going the other direction. 752 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 3: So I do think when you're talking about a look aheadline, 753 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,680 Speaker 3: that is clearly what this is, because probably will get 754 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 3: three and a half and two and a half by 755 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 3: the time you turn around next week. All right, best 756 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 3: bets Week one in the books, Brandon, This was fantastic. 757 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 3: I can't wait to do this every single week leading 758 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 3: up throughout the season. That has been it for the 759 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 3: Action Hour Podcast Week one episode. Don't forget to download 760 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 3: the free award winning Action Howork app to see more 761 00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 3: from all of our Action Howork contributors. Plus, you can 762 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 3: track your own picks while you're in there. Sign up 763 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:31,080 Speaker 3: for Action Pro for immediate notifications every time one of 764 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,879 Speaker 3: our action experts tracks a pick. Go to actionework dot 765 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 3: com slash pro use the promo code Pod twenty Pod 766 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 3: twenty for twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. 767 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,839 Speaker 3: Also check out the Action Nework Discord server to chop 768 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 3: it up with experts and fellow gamblers during these games. 769 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 3: I am looking right now. There are tons of bets 770 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,400 Speaker 3: people talking everything about Thursday and Friday night football, so 771 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,360 Speaker 3: definitely get in there and check it out with Kerner 772 00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,799 Speaker 3: and Raybond. There is a link to join in the 773 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 3: description of this podcast, and again, if you want to 774 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 3: tail some of these bets we gave out today, make 775 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 3: sure to look for the quick slip link in the 776 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 3: podcast and video description or go to actionework dot com 777 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,880 Speaker 3: slash bet now, b e t n ow bet now. 778 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 3: It's got all of the bets listed there with quick 779 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 3: slip links. Super easy to tell all these bets. We 780 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 3: will be back Sunday night for our NFL recap show 781 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:28,280 Speaker 3: that'll be live on Action Network's YouTube page shortly after 782 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:33,200 Speaker 3: Bill's Ravens. Thanks for listening, enjoy the slate, good luck 783 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:52,240 Speaker 3: with all your bets this weekend. Boone shuns. Action Network 784 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,839 Speaker 3: reminds you please gamble responsibly. 785 00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,080 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 786 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four at one eight hundred gambler