Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea, which is probably that today was
Speaker 2: the single most original jobs day ever. It's a Tuesday,
Speaker 2: and we had a sort of kind of like October
Speaker 2: jobs report, a November jobs report two weeks after we
Speaker 2: were supposed to see it, and then I guess we
Speaker 2: move on to January. In two days we have the
Speaker 2: inflation report, which I think is pretty much normal, but
Speaker 2: don't hold me to that. I'll talk to Mike mckeeth
Speaker 2: about that. It's an odd time coming out of government shutdown.
Speaker 2: One of the oddities we've seen his rotation in the market.
Speaker 2: Bringing up a theory which goes back one hundred years,
Speaker 2: the Dow theory. The Dow theory is that the stars
Speaker 2: aligned when the Dow Jones industrial average and the transportations
Speaker 2: and the utilities go up together or down together. A
Speaker 2: lot of good academic work on this in the nineteen
Speaker 2: thirties and the depression, and it was sort of gospel
Speaker 2: through World War Two and on my parents' fifties and sixties.
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg of Rosenberg research on the Dow theory.
Speaker 3: The Dow theory advocates obviously like what they're seeing I
Speaker 3: don't know, Tom, if you look at it more from
Speaker 3: a fundamental perspective, what the transports are really telling you,
Speaker 3: except for the fact that oil and fuel prices are
Speaker 3: coming down. So there's a historic inverse correlation of minus
Speaker 3: fifty minus sixty percent between what oil prices do in
Speaker 3: the transports. So the transports are seeing their margins improve
Speaker 3: because of this exogenous development taking place. On the oil
Speaker 3: price going down, is it giving any confirmation on the economy?
Speaker 3: I would push against that view.
Speaker 2: Really interesting idea there on oil, of course, the oil
Speaker 2: Brent crude, the global price under sixty dollars a bit,
Speaker 2: or West Texas Intermediate the American price so much based
Speaker 2: off Texas and Oklahoma. West Texas Intermediate clocks in under
Speaker 2: fifty six dollars a barrel. Those are wow statistics into
Speaker 2: the end of the year. I do want to note
Speaker 2: here that David Rosenberg spoke of Stephen Myron's disinflationary call
Speaker 2: and really gave it some credence. There's a raging debate
Speaker 2: about what inflation will be Q one of next year
Speaker 2: and in to say, fourth of July Q two, what
Speaker 2: will we see, say the end of May, what will
Speaker 2: you see in that inflation report of June of next year.
Speaker 2: What a raging debate right now. We'll do a lot
Speaker 2: on that, I'm sure in the next six months. Think
Speaker 2: Tank of the Year, without question, the Budget Lab at Yale,
Speaker 2: their leadership on tariff analysis was outstanding. Martha Gimble drives
Speaker 2: the ship, earning Tedesky with a shout out for the
Speaker 2: work on tariff's. They're now beginning to look at AI
Speaker 2: and they have an initial report. They make clear that
Speaker 2: it's just a first report of many to come. This
Speaker 2: is the Budget Lab at Yale and they're Martha Gimble
Speaker 2: on AI.
Speaker 4: I mean, it would be unusual, right for there to
Speaker 4: be no labor market disruption when you introduce a major
Speaker 4: new technology. I think the thing that everyone keeps forgetting
Speaker 4: right is that it takes time for technological disruption to happen.
Speaker 4: It took decades for electricity to disrupt the labor market.
Speaker 4: It even took a pretty long time for the Internet
Speaker 4: to kick in, right. It wasn't like immediately in nineteen
Speaker 4: ninety seven we were changing all the things, and so
Speaker 4: you know, AI feel so big and people are expecting
Speaker 4: to see, you know, impacts immediately. That's just not how
Speaker 4: companies were.
Speaker 2: Martha Gimble at the Budget Lab at Yale. It's single
Speaker 2: best idea. It's on a podcast AI. We use AI
Speaker 2: every day here. That's on an Apple, on Spotify, on
Speaker 2: YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea
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