WEBVTT - 8am-9am ET: Garten & Shepherdson 0:00:03.360 --> 0:00:06.400 This is Bloomberg Surveibans. We think we're heading into an 0:00:06.440 --> 0:00:09.000 eighties and nineties type environment where it's a Warren Buffett 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:11.680 slash Peter Lynch type world where you buy good companies 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:13.480 and you stick with them. We live in a world 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.360 which is more more witless in tangibles are such an 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:18.800 important part of the economy. I think it's pretty clear 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.680 that if you only looked at the economic data and 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.000 not at the market, the FED would be raging. Radis 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.480 to hen March Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:32.159 of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.800 Michael McKee and Tom Keene worldwide Bloomberg Surveillance. Who welcome 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:39.040 all of you on Bloomberg Radio. Plus. I'm Bloomberg's thrilled 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.680 that you listen on iTunes. Are podcasts that are out there. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:46.000 Bloomberg twelve Boston, Bloomberg eleven three on New York, down 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:50.320 to Washington FM and Good Morning, Good early morning on 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:53.240 the West Coast and across Sirious and next M channel 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.240 one nineteen in Bloomberg nine sixty the Bay Area. In 0:00:56.240 --> 0:01:00.240 this uh half hour, in this hour, I think I 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:01.720 can say it is the beach read of the year 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:04.560 for thinking people. Jeff Garden to join us from his 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:07.640 Yale University and we'll talk about what we don't know 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.680 about globalization and what we need to know as well. 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:15.360 Bloomberg Surveillance Watch You by Cone Resnec Accounting Tax Advisory 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:19.639 just sees opportunities in commercial real estate. Your businesses market 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:23.280 focused guidance from the industry leading experts at Cone Resnick. 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:29.240 Find out how a Cone dot Com Michael you okay 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:34.800 over there, Peyton Manning retiring, You're gonna survive. We're We're glad, 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:38.760 He gets out while getting good. Dean Garden Michaels sedated 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:41.800 after rooting for the Bloomberg the Denver Broncos called the 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:45.640 Bloomberg Broncos as well. Um From Silk to Silicon Jeffrey 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:48.920 Garten The Story of Globalization through ten Extraordinary Life. I 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:50.800 want to get to the book, but first I have 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.440 to talk about this political process and the discourse you 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.200 teach with Steve roachump at l Roach gives out seas, 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.200 you give out a's we know how the dance goes, 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.360 and and when you talk about Wall Street in Washington. 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.160 I go back to him sitting with a son of 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:11.120 arguably the most decorated military officer of America in the 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:15.000 last century. Your father, who fought in three wars World 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.359 War Two, he was at pork Uh pork Chop Hill 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.920 in Korea, he was in Vietnam as well, your head 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:23.800 must be forget about the politics. Your head must be 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:29.160 spinning at the discourse that your father served in three wars. 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.760 To get us to this point, well, you know, my 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:35.160 father died a couple of months ago, and he died 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.440 in in his sleep, which I was grateful for, and 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:39.919 I'm I'm glad he died when he did. I think 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:43.919 if he will were watching the primaries now, Um, he 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:49.720 burst a coronary because you know, he and and and 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:54.720 and his comrades, they fought for in America that is 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.160 a lot different than the one that is being discussed. 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.720 They fought for a country that was a leader on 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.919 the global stage. They fought for a country in which 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:09.040 UM immigrants came in and had upward mobility. I mean, 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:11.639 I don't know about you, but you know I'm the 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:17.120 third generation. My father was second generation, my wife's parents 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:21.040 were second generation. Our grandparents all came from somewhere else, 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:25.240 and UM that's what that's what this country stood for. 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.280 And those wars were fought to defend a way of 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:32.280 life that was an open that was an open society 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.720 that basically said to the rest of the world, UM, 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.240 we can take you and we can do some great things. 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.960 But that's not the discourse that that exists. Now we 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:43.840 gotta get to your book, but I gotta follow up 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.160 and ask how did that change change? How did we 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:51.040 get to a country where people are so afraid of 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:55.040 the rest of the world. I think we dropped. I 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:58.600 think we became very complacent. That is for if you 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.400 look at the end of the Second War, World War 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:06.240 and when my father came back from the Pacific, UM, 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:09.080 there was no country in the world that can challenge us. 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:13.720 We basically created and Tom alluded to this, before you 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:17.760 know a world. We created the rules. It was an 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:22.360 open global economy. It was open to our companies, which 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.480 were the most powerful in the world. UM. We had 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.920 the best education system, we had the best technology, and 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.680 so we could flourish in that global economy for a 0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:37.920 long time. But somewhere around the nineties, UM, a lot 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:41.240 of other countries began to catch up, and we were 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:44.880 asleep at the switch. And I think now what we're 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:48.080 realizing is that we have a lot of work to 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:52.840 do internally in order to continue to flourish, in order 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.479 for most of our people to continue to flourish in 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:58.360 this global economy. And that's what we have to do 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.640 rather than close is down. We were just speaking with 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.320 Admiral James dadis from the Tough School, and he said, 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:08.920 one of the most important things for new president coming 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.960 off is to have good advice, good people around him. 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:15.320 What advice would you give the next president to whomever 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.000 he or she is. What's the most important thing they 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.880 need to do to change that? Well, I think if 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:24.599 I had to put my finger on the single biggest thing, 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:29.520 it's the workforce. If we have if everybody is employed 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.680 in decent jobs, I think many of the issues that 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.440 we're concerned about, we'll go away. Okay, we're getting to 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:39.160 your book now. In terms of the workforce, globalization has 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:44.400 affected the workforce in profound ways, and it's not as 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.039 easy as saying we just want to, you know, get 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:49.920 everybody into good jobs. That just doesn't happen. No, that's right, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.880 And but the thing is, the jobs of the future 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:56.200 are not the jobs of the nineteen seventies of the 0:05:56.279 --> 0:06:01.520 nineteen eighties, and we need an internal system that is 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:05.440 going to be able to prepare more and more people 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:08.400 for these new jobs, whatever they are. I don't think 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:12.120 we can know exactly what they'll be, but we need 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:16.120 an education system that is far more effective. We need 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:20.400 the most modern kind of infrastructure so the economy is 0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:25.040 more um um competitive, and that itself will also generate 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:28.560 lots of jobs um And I think we need a 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:34.159 kind of social safety net that allows people to be 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.080 unemployed for a while while they're training for something else 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:40.200 and not fall all the way down the rabbit hole 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:43.719 if you're just joining us. Jeffrey Garten serving with Nixon, Ford, 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.919 Carter Clinton, and also serving in who have in Connecticut 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.280 for decades. The book is from Silk to Silicon, a 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:54.560 story of globalization through ten extraordinary lives. Everyone yearns for 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:59.160 technological progress. It will provide investment that will put American 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:02.000 jobs for work. We did that with the underwater cable. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:06.320 My most enjoyable chapter of your book is linking the 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.320 old World to the New World. Cyrus Field did that 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.920 a zillion years ago, and we know it created a 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:15.880 lot of jobs. You got Indigo grow of Intel later on. 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.640 I believe he created a lot of jobs. Why can't 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:22.800 we reduc that in your eleventh, twelve or thirteen person 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.480 you would write about in five years? Well, I think 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:27.440 we can. But let me just drop back and say, 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.960 what I tried to do in the book was to 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.240 talk about globalization in a way that people could better 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.960 understand and relate to. So rather than talk about big trends, 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:41.160 I talked about people who did something really They did 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:45.400 something really spectacular, and they changed their world. And they 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.120 not they not only changed the world they lived in, 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:51.360 but the impact was so great they continue to change 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.080 our So let me let me comment on the two 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:57.920 people use and I think you're absolutely right that major 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:03.280 breakthroughs can create all kinds of jobs that are future oriented. 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.760 So one of these chapters is about cyrus Field, who 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:12.360 UM lived in the mid eighteen hundreds, and he's the 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:16.560 guy who built the Transatlantic cable. UM to tell you 0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:21.880 how monumental that was. UM on the day before that 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:26.360 cable was absolutely it was was constructed and was concluded 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.600 when when it it linked Europe and the US. On 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:35.360 the day before, news traveled across the Atlantic no faster 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:39.360 than it had for four thousand years that it was 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.360 it is. It was a question of the wind on 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:48.400 one minute. When that cable was actually joined, we had 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:52.079 real time communication between the US and Europe, and within 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.240 two or three years after that, the entire world was wired. 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:59.560 Think of think of the discontinuity. In fact, the Transatlantic 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:04.720 cable was a far bigger advance and civilization than the Internet, 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:08.240 because when the Internet came along, we already could look 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.000 at our TVs and see uh, you know, we could 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:18.400 see Vietnam real time. So um, the incremental advance of 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:22.400 the Internet was far less than going from zero to 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:25.840 real time. Les Robert Gordon's point in his in his 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:30.200 book that the big advances have been done and now 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.720 it's incremental change. Well let's let's let's come back to that. 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:35.920 But I just, um, I want to I want to 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:41.080 reinforce Tom's point, which is that Transatlantic cable was the 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:45.640 forerunner of the radio, of the telephone, of the and 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:51.680 of the Internet, and so it was a huge job changer. 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.840 I mean, it basically put the United States into a 0:09:55.880 --> 0:10:00.560 totally different era of global communications. And you think about 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.480 the jobs that were created with all the new cables 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.439 that were you know, being liked and all the equipment 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:09.240 that wait with it, but not only that, all the 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:13.720 business that took place that couldn't place before. Well, we 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:16.200 have to come back. Jeffrey Garden with US of Yale 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:18.679 University has a wonderful new book, From Soak to Silicon. 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.760 Mike wants to follow up. I know where the important 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:25.040 thought is, Well, we will do that. From Soak to Silicon, 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:29.319 The Story of Globalizations or ten Extraordinary Lives Futures of 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.719 negative seven down futures, negative assuring to the market. You 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:36.199 see that the Monday after Job today. Coming up Jeffrey Garden, 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.800 and we'll talk to him about Andrew Grove. We'll talk 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:40.360 to him about some of the other names of Michael 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.200 McKee I know, and some thoughts as well. Also Jeffrey 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:48.720 Garden on the potato bosel for TATA, talk about that 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:54.000 as well. First, I check in with Michael Barr. We 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.520 want to get the latest World of National headlines. Blank, Tom, 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:59.040 thank you very much. Vice President Joe Biden told American 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:02.080 troops and the United Arab Emirates the US will wipe 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:05.840 out Islamic state militants in Iraq and Syria. Biden is 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.920 on the Middle East trip. Biden also told the troops 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:12.040 the US has carried out eighteen hundred air strikes against 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:16.440 ISIS since October. The verbal battle between Hillary Clinton and 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.920 Bernie Sanders took a more pointed turn at last night's 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:24.440 Democratic presidential debate in Flint, Michigan. Clinton accused Sanders of 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.760 turning his back on the auto industry. Sanders said Clinton's 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:32.480 friends on Wall Street destroyed this economy. Republican presidential candidate 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:35.559 Donald Trump says Nancy Reagan, the wife of a truly 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.560 great president, was an amazing woman. She will be missed. 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.920 Nancy Reagan died yesterday in Los Angeles at age ninety four. 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:45.200 Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:48.480 twenty four hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.240 news bureaus from around the world. Michael Blarn, Mike Tom 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.120 and macn thanks so much. Yields elevated off the jobs 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:56.800 report on Friday, the tenure year of one point nine 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:00.760 zero percent with Jeoffrey Garden from Silk to Silver com 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:07.520 Bloomberg Surveillance. The news update brought to you by Flushing 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.000 Bank open a complete business checking account with fifteen thousand 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.800 dollars or more and get a free sixteen gig WiFi tablet. 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.199 Visit flushing Bag dot com for details. Remember f D 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:24.120 I C Equal Housing, London Global business news twenty four 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:27.280 hours a day. It's Bloomberg dot Com, the Radio plus 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:30.480 Mobile Act and on your radio, this is a Bloomberg 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:34.360 Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow a US stock index 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.240 futures are lower. Let's go to the first Word breaking 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.000 news desk for today's morning call. And here's Bill Maloney. 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.959 Good morning, Bill, Good morning Karen. That's right US. You 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.439 just remain under pressure today. Down futures lower by forty 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.040 two points, SP futures drop seven and NAZAC futures declined 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:53.360 by seventeen U S ten Uel at one point nine 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.400 per cent. Main up of markets are also trading lower. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.600 Energy names, telcom and financials need to drop in deal 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:02.840 news b A s F said to be a valuing 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:06.680 rival takeover bid for DuPont Another news value to hold 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:10.360 call on March fifteenth on preliminary Q four and Dinan's 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:14.240 and sell X plunges fifty percent pre market after study 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.360 eating this endpoint. Finally, some of your key wallsheet upgrades 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.440 and downgrades Archer Daniels cut your neutral over at Bank 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.320 of America. Stratus has cut the underweight to JP Morgan, 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.599 Michael's cut the eagle weight at Morgan Stanley add no 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.920 more Micron cut to reduce and anger sol Rand raised 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.960 to buy Finally Win Resorts raised to buy versus neutral 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:36.000 over at ubs live on the first Breaking news desk 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.079 on Boumloney Karen thanks to Baible to hear live breaking 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.000 news over your Bloomberg type squawk and go on your terminal. 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:45.240 That's squ a w k go. That's a Bloomberg business flash. 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.520 Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much, Bloomberg Surveillance Brunch 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:52.240 you by indesco. Have you considered all of your investment alternatives? 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:56.200 Non traditional asset classes and strategies may help you achieve 0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:01.520 your goals? Find out more in investco dot COM's slash alternatives. 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:03.760 And Michael McKee and I were an esteem because Michael, 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.679 did you notice that Yale Hockey once again does it? 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.800 They host Dartmouth in the E C A C S 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:15.400 seven all ivy picks. They're just the powerhouse. Well we are. 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:19.400 Congratulations to them and no doubt all reading Jeff Carton's 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.000 new book. Yeah there, Well, you know it's funny. It's 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:24.160 gonna be seventy one degrees or so in the middle 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.200 of this week. So Tom is already in beach mode 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.280 and he's declared from Silk to Silicon. His beach reading 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:33.240 book of the Year, The Story of Globalization Through Ten 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.680 Extraordinary Lives, written by Jeffrey Garden. He is the Dean 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.880 emeritus of the Yale School of Management. We were talking 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:46.080 about how, uh, one person, through their efforts, can make 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:52.320 a major impact on history. You've got ten extraordinarily lives 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.520 in there, but these are lives that have been lived. 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:59.560 Whom do you see out there as someone who who 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:04.800 could be the next the next chapter is there is 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:08.840 there a person or a subject matter that you would 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:14.200 tout as perhaps the next big thing? Well, um, you know, 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.400 before I answer that, I just want to I just 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:20.640 want to re emphasize the criteria I used, because by 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.080 any account, there are lots of really extraordinary people who 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:28.560 are doing extraordinary things. The ten that I picked had 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:32.040 a big idea, but they also were the ones who 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:36.600 executed the idea, So that really limits the That limits 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:40.000 the pool. I mean, there's been many big thinkers, but 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.640 to be a thinker and a doer on an extraordinary scale. 0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:48.160 That that puts you in a much more rarefied environment. 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.520 And the second kind of criteria I had is that 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:57.080 what these guys did kicked off an entirely new age. 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:01.480 So for example, I write about my first character, Genghis Khan, 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:06.000 he really kicked off an age of global empire. Or 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:10.080 I write about um Cyrus Field, and he kicked off 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.480 an age of global communication, you know. And I write 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:19.040 about John Rockefeller, who kicked off an age of industrialization. UM. 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.720 If I use those categories is very very hard for 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:26.840 me to I think for anyone to identify someone now, 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:32.680 um you know, the the usual suspects. Let's say Jeff 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:37.280 Bezos you know, or or maybe um you know Steve 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:42.600 Jobs or maybe um uh Elon Musk. I don't know 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.240 that they're kicking off new ages. Now. The person who 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:48.600 kicked off the new age in my book, the one 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:53.440 I picked that relates to all of them, was Andrew Grove. 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:59.920 Because Andrew Grove, as the head of Intel, UM didn't 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.920 create the microprocessor, but he figured out how to make 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:07.159 it to commercial to global commercial scale. And it's the 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:13.440 microprocessor that's at the center of every Internet digitalization gadget 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.040 that we talked about. It could be phones, it could 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:20.640 be three D printers, it could be all kinds of sensors, 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:23.840 but without the microprocessor, none of it would be possible. 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:28.640 So you know, that's that was my thinking. So who who? 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:31.280 I can identify a person, but I could identify maybe 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:35.080 a a an arena that I think someone is going 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:39.080 to come along. Let's say, and um be the person 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:44.800 who may eradicate certain diseases that would have an enormous 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:50.120 global impact in terms of populations. I think someone might 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:54.120 come along and have a technological breakthrough when it comes 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.480 to climate change. You know, someone anyone who can figure 0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:03.440 out how to capture the coal emissions or forever that 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.919 would be. But I don't know who those people are. UM, 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.000 I've got to rip up the script here. I put 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:11.680 out a slight article of fabulous article by Dana Goldstein. This, 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:17.280 uh we can on Andrew Hacker in his hugely controversial 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:20.880 book basically saying the liberal arts curriculum doesn't need math. 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:25.040 I went suitably ballistic, as I believe you would as well. 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:28.639 Would you explain to our audience why people that aren't 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:30.920 going to be engineers like the people in your book, 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:35.160 like Grove or or Um the others, why we need 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:40.119 math at every level of our education, Well, I just 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:41.760 think we. First of all, I agree with you, and 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:46.840 I think we have entered in era where the kind 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:53.480 of reasoning that math induces is absolutely critical to understanding 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:58.480 various relationships. That, let me put another way, We're living 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.960 in an era where you need deep knowledge, but you 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.480 also need to be able to relate it to other things. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:07.720 And math is the ultimate sort of relational kind of discipline. 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:10.960 And so I think we need math. I thought what 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:13.800 you were going to say is do we need poetry? 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:15.600 And I think we need that. We need that as well. 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:17.800 We need that's the house I grew up. So I 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:22.240 think we need people who because because we can't anticipate, 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.240 but the world is going to be and I really 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:27.840 believe that because I think the change is moving so fast. 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:32.879 We need people who have technical capabilities but also the 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:38.399 ability to reason critically, to ask the right questions. We 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.040 could go for hours. Jeffrey Garden with a Samarith Yale 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.080 University of the School of Management. The book is From 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.639 Silk to Silicon, and it is the early advances we 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:51.040 have seventy degrees temperature uh this week in New York. 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:52.879 It is the beach read of the ear. It is 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.920 a fabulous ten chapters. I didn't even have time to 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:59.879 mention Sean Money, which is a wonderful chapter. Jeff Garten 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.639 with us from Silk to Silicon. This is Bloomberg's surveillance 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:08.240 coming up there, with all due respect highlight. Brought to 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:09.920 you by land Rover. If it's in your nature to 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:12.040 cast off the every day and seek adventure, the Discovery 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:14.240 Sport was built to help your search. Visit Landrover tri 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.840 State dot com for special offers during the only Adventure 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:24.520 Sales event. Land Rover above and byl broadcasting live to 0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:28.480 New York, Cloomberg Eleventh, Rio to Washington, d C, Bloomber 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:34.200 to Boston, Bloomberg Dwell Honors, to San Francisco, Bloomberg to 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:37.919 the Country, Suis Exam Channel one ninety and around the 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:41.680 globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus happened Bloomberg dot Com. This 0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:45.720 is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning as a thorny on Wall 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:48.760 Street at Michael McKee along with Tom Keene and our 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:52.320 economic indicators are brought to you by Commonwealth Financial network. 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:54.560 When it's time to change the conversation, talk with a 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.080 broker dealer, r I A that's ready to listen college 0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.560 six six or six two three six three eight, or 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:03.320 visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. A slow week 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:06.560 ahead jobs week, the first week about always very big 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:10.119 for indicators. Uh, this week not so much today. The 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:13.000 other thing we really have are the FEDS Labor Market 0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:17.640 Conditions Index, a lot of labor market numbers, especially out 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:20.439 of the jobs report mushed together is supposed to come 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:24.960 in at one from zero point. For surprise, it didn't rise. 0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:27.719 And then consumer credit later this afternoon, we'll see if 0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:31.280 we get any kind of indication of whether Americans still feel, 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.840 you know, happy enough to borrow. Mushed came out of 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:40.359 econometrics after World War Two. Yeah, I took a mushed 0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:43.040 class the Jolts. You make a big deal about the 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:47.800 Jolts server. Yes, it's delayed data, but it does tell 0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:51.040 us a lot about um, the state of the labor market, 0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:54.960 how many jobs available, et cetera. The of course, everybody's 0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:58.240 still reacting to Friday's jobs report better than forecast in 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:01.560 terms of headline numbers. But the big quest was why 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:06.720 did we see ours work and particularly compensation go down. 0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:12.080 Wages fell after a big jump the month before. H 0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:17.399 Ian Shepherdson from Pantheon Macroeconomics had a unique explanation. We 0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:19.400 wanted to get that from him, he joins us now, 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:21.879 and you were the first out of the gate to 0:22:22.280 --> 0:22:27.680 note that even before the report you were expecting a 0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:32.840 disappointing wage number. What have you found. Well, this is 0:22:32.880 --> 0:22:36.800 a technicality, like it's a calendar quirk UM. So the 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.040 peril survey is the week of the twelfth UM, and 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:44.240 when the fifteen falls on the following Monday or Tuesday, 0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:47.720 people who are paid semi monthly, some of them get 0:22:47.760 --> 0:22:51.000 missed out of the WEDGE numbers. And this isn't supposed 0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.360 to happen UM. Employers are supposed to recognize when those 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:56.640 people are being paid outside the survey period and count 0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:59.240 them anyway when they report their WEDGE data into the 0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:02.080 Bureau of Labor Statistics. But some of them clearly don't. 0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:05.200 And so there's a very very consistent pattern going back 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:07.480 over the past decade when when with the data first 0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:11.040 started to appear in their current form, showing that nine 0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:13.359 times out of ten when the fifteen is a Monday, 0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:16.479 or Tuesday, the wage numbers come in way below their 0:23:16.520 --> 0:23:18.880 previous trend, and then they tend to rebound a month 0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.520 or two later, so we don't lose anything permanently, but 0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:24.000 we do suffer what appears to be these sort of 0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:28.840 substantially volatile monthly swings in numbers, which really ought to 0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:31.600 be quite smooth, but they're not. And it turns out 0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:33.720 that a huge amount of that variation is because of 0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:36.359 this calendar quirk. December was one of those months, and 0:23:36.400 --> 0:23:39.120 we came in with a zero and expectedly big rebound 0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:41.680 in January. Then February another one of these crazy months, 0:23:41.680 --> 0:23:45.040 and we get a minus zero point one. So it's 0:23:45.040 --> 0:23:50.119 pretty consistent and absent any other substantive explanation for the 0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:53.399 February weakness. That's what I'm going for. Well, you'd be 0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:57.840 looking for, then a big rebound. What is the underlying 0:23:57.960 --> 0:24:02.159 state of wage growth once you've move all this stuff out, Well, 0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:06.560 it's accelerating, certainly accelerating. The trend is stripping out. The 0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:09.440 calendar quirks is probably now at about two point five 0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:11.760 two point six year of the year this time last year, 0:24:11.800 --> 0:24:13.720 it was two the year before, it was two point 0:24:13.840 --> 0:24:15.800 zero the year before it was two point zero. So 0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:18.520 this has been quite a marked acceleration after our a 0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:21.679