WEBVTT - Is The 'Everything Bubble' About To Burst?! 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:03.440 The everything bubble is pushed asset prices like stocks, real 0:00:03.560 --> 0:00:06.680 estate and bitcoin two crazy new all time highs and 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:10.360 the pinprick. It's coming and they're all gonna burst, and 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.200 everything's gonna come crashing down. Well, at least that's what 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:17.200 you know. Mainstream analysts like Michael Burry, Jim Rickards, my 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:20.560 good friend, Robert Kiyosaki, Harry Dent, Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff, 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:24.120 Jeremy Grantham, list goes on and more of those people 0:00:24.239 --> 0:00:26.880 keep telling us, keep showing us that this bubble is 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.800 going to burst. But could they all be wrong? What 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:33.239 if the bubble they're seeing isn't really what it seems. 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:35.640 So in this video, we're gonna look at these crazy 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:37.880 asset bubbles. We're gonna look at the rise and fall 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:41.080 of each, We're gonna look at the fundamental drivers of 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:45.440 these asset bubbles, the cycles that are moving them along, 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.800 and what to expect next. Now, based off my social 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.360 media post over the last few days and weeks, it 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.480 seems that no one's prepared to see this data. It's 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:57.640 gonna challenge every belief and every bias that you have. 0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:00.240 But if you want to know the truth, then stick around, 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.600 and let's go all right, and real quick before we do, 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:04.399 if you knew the channel, my name is Mark Moss. 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:07.679 I've been investing through multiple bear market cycles. I've seen 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:10.680 my share of asset bubbles. I started investing right before 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:13.520 the dot com boom and the bust. I've been built 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.399 up two tech companies with big exits. I had a big, 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.360 multi eight figure real estate portfolio only to see the 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:21.759 real estate asset bubble crash in two thousand and eight, 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.000 and so I've been studying these events in great detail 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.880 ever since. And I've been making these educational videes for 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.440 over five years to help you avoid the same mistakes 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:33.479 and pain that I had to go through. So let's 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.399 jump right in. All right, So we're going to talk 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:38.680 about the everything bubble, and I'm going to talk really 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.560 fast because I have a ton of data. I got 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.120 a ton of charts that I'm going to show you, 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:44.840 So I'm going to go through them as quickly as 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:46.760 I can, try to keep the ad libbing down to 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:48.760 a minimum. All right, but we're going to talk about 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:51.520 the everything bubble as a drome. Pal is showing us 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:54.920 right here, and look, most people have this completely wrong. 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.680 It's a reverse thinking of what most people think. It's 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.680 why I've been une for about the last year and 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:03.559 a half. You can see my record on the videos 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.480 down below. And we're going to talk about this now. 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:07.560 The first thing, let's just frame this up. Okay, We're 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:09.320 going to start from the beginning. What the heck is 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:11.880 this everything bubble? It was a term that was really 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.560 coined by Jennet Yellen back when she was running the FED, 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.120 and it's basically an everything bubble refers to a correlated 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:22.959 impact of monetary easing. So in Wikipedia sort of tells 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.800 you this, but for some reason, all these analysts and 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:27.839 all these people on Twitter and social media, they don't 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:32.240 understand it. It's a correlated impact of monetary easy We'll 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:36.880 come back to that. It says monetary easing on asset prices. 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:40.600 So what is monetary easing due to asset prices creates 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.519 and everything bubble? The policy itself and the techniques of 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.720 direct and indirect, direct and indirect of quantitative easing. Why 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:50.119 do I stop there? Because people are like, but Mark, 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.480 we haven't been having quantitative easying. Look, the Fed's been 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:57.760 tightening well direct and indirect. So while their official policy 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.320 has been tightening. All the indrec stuff they've been doing 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:05.520 has had the same effect of easying, like the BTFP program, 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:08.520 for example. And it says the FED put is a 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.760 modern monetary theory. So modern monetary theory means that we 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.760 can just print as much as we want. There's no 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:15.280 limit to the amount of money that we can just create. 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.079 And if we print too much and inflation is too high, 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:19.440 then we can tax it out, sort of like a 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.560 drain on a bathtub. We're gonna come back to this, 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:23.960 but this sort of frames it up right here. But 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:28.360 most people just don't understand this. Now, a bubble, I 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.760 often say when someone says, hey, but Bitcoin, our houses 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:34.280 or stocks are in a bubble. Everything's always the bubble. Now, 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:38.000 the question is at what stage in the bubble we are, right, So, 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.720 if an asset price is going up, Let's imagine if 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.160 we have a baseline. If an asset price is going up, 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:48.240 that's a bubble. Now is it low? Is high? Right? 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:50.320 So the question is what stage? So here's the stages 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.520 that we have the takeoff of the bubble. If we're 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:54.600 in this stage of the bubble, no big deal, right, 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:57.160 then we have this first sell off. They call this 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:58.840 a bear trap. You know. If we're in this stage 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:01.560 of the bubble, no big deal. It's this part, this 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:03.640 part of the bubble that we want to be careful of. 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:08.600 We have this enthusiasm, greed, delusion, and a new paradigm. 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:10.320 Oh my god, a'readaet so rich, I'll never go down. 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:13.120 And then finally denial and it crashes back down. Okay, 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.440 that's what people typically see, but that's not all what 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:20.800 it seems. Now a few notable bubbles from history. We 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:23.719 have the tulip bubble. It's the most famous one in history. 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:28.320 And tulips in Holland, like the flower, they got so overbought. 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.920 It created this massive peak and then they sold off. 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:33.599 Now a lot of people like to say, oh, tulip mania, 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.960 it's sort of like the doc or sort of like bitcoin. 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:40.200 Well not really, because the tulipmania never came back. It 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:43.920 never rebounded again. The dot com went up and down, 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:46.960 but of course it's way higher today. Bitcoin went up 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:49.080 and down, and of course it's way higher today. So 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:50.960 it's a little bit different. You have to understand sort 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:52.640 of how these work. And I wanted to show you 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.440 the dot com for example. Now, the dot com was 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.720 a bubble, and it did crash. And when we talk 0:04:57.760 --> 0:04:59.720 about the bubble, we can see I drew this trend 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.160 line for you right here. So this is the NASDAC right, 0:05:02.200 --> 0:05:04.480 which is represented sort of the dot com bubble from 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.480 nineteen seventy seven to twenty twenty four. And what we 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:11.760 can see is right here, this did create a bubble, 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.839 right It got way over the trend line. So it 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.400 crashed down, so back to the mean, back to the 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.159 trend line. It bounced around, tested the trend line again, 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.560 and then it took off to new all time highs. 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:26.160 So this right here is what we're looking for. Really, 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:28.960 are we looking for things that are way too over extended, 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.880 way too overpriced, or are they underpriced? But most people 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:33.960 don't understand this. Okay, I know it sounds like a 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.400 simple concept. Stick with me. Okay, this is very crucial 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.040 you understand this. So now let's look at asset bubbles. 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:41.520 And again I'm gonna talk fast. I got a lot 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.280 of data, Okay, so let's look at stocks. I did 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.560 a poll on my Instagram and I basically asked my 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.159 audience on Instagram, what do you think is the biggest 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:56.440 asset bubble? Stocks, real estate or bitcoin or other, and 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.520 almost everybody thought that stocks in real estate were the 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:02.280 two biggest bubbles. They were about tied. So let's take 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:04.400 a look at those bubbles. Now what we can see, 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.320 and actually we're in a stocks real estate we're gonna 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:09.640 look a bit poin. This is the tweet that sort 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.320 of kicked all this off. My good friend Lynn Alden 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.320 put up this tweet on Twitter. If you're follow me, 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:17.719 I'll linked to my Twitter down below. You can see 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:19.280 us going back and forth on these things. It's kind 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:21.280 of fun. This is what sparked this whole video. And 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.600 she basically said that in two thousand and eight right here, 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:28.960 the housing bubble got overextended, but today it seems to 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.320 be driven by something else, which I replied, it's like 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:35.680 a bubble in the denominator. You may not understand what 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:36.880 that is. I'm going to break it down for you. 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:39.279 And this guy right here, Darth Powell. He likes to 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.400 comment on Twitter a bunch. He says to me, Mark, 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.400 you just don't understand how real estate is priced. Actually, 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:48.279 he said, you do't understand how real estate is priced? Mark, 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:51.880 Oh I don't. Well, I've been a real estate I 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:53.800 started my career in real estate. I still invest in 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.440 real estate. I don't understand. You don't typically want to 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.240 tell that to people like you don't know what they know. 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.080 He says, I don't understand, which then of course I 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:04.160 had to reply, and I said, I did it gracefully. 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.760 I said, look, I just don't understand real estate. And 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:08.599 I didn't und stay aything else. I just gave him 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:10.880 the data. All right, I'm going to break this data 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:12.440 down for you. But this is what sort of sparked this. 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:14.760 You don't want to be like that guy. You want 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:16.360 to know the data, at least if you want to 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:18.000 make money. So let's take a look at this. So 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:19.760 if we go back to the s and P five 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:22.280 hundred and are we in a bubble? Now? I drew 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.440 a trend line from nineteen eight to twenty twenty four, 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:28.640 and we see here again in the two thousand dot 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:33.320 com bubble, it got way over extended, and then it recovered, 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.920 and then it got way over extended in two thousand 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:39.280 and eight again, and then it recovered. All right. Now 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.880 from two thousand and eight, we can see this trend 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:44.800 line going straight up. Now, if you're saying, well, Mark, 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:46.840 you said this was overextended. Here you might say, well, 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.880 this is actually over extended, and you would actually be right. 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:53.880 So these two areas look very bubbleish. So the S 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.040 and P five hundred does look like it's in a 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:59.720 massive bubble right now, similar to here. Okay, but that's 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:01.960 only from the basic This is where most people go wrong. 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:04.080 I'm gonna break this down for you. Don't worry, Okay, 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:05.560 if we zoom in just a little bit, just so 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.120 you can see it a little bit better. Here's the 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:10.400 S and P five hundred now just from we'll get 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:12.880 from two thousand and eight until now, and again you 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:14.600 can see I mean, obviously it moves up and down 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:16.840 off this trend line, so you know from where it's 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.880 been over the trend line. It's not super high. We're 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.000 not super high. I wouldn't call this a big bubble, 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:25.160 but again, it's not what it seems. This is what 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:28.160 people are totally missing out on. Let's take a look 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:30.600 at the Nasdaq. The nasdack again is sort of represented 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.880 by the tech stocks, and again sort of the same 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.199 time period from two thousand and eight. Of course, it 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.240 bounces up and down on the trend line, so it 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:40.880 gets over extended, right a little bit expensive, a little 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:42.840 bit cheap, little bit expensive, a little bit cheap. You know, 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:45.160 it got a little bubbish here. It broke through the 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:47.160 trend line here, and now it's bouncing back up. We're 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:49.920 not high above the trend line. So everyone's like, oh 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.800 my gosh, it's a bubble. Well why why? Because we're 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:56.560 way up from here? Is that why? Because the prices 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.720 are more expensive they used to be. Is that why? 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:02.360 Hang on, don't worry to break this down. Okay, now bitcoin, 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:06.120 of course bitcoin's in a massive bubble. We can see 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.200 this now, back to the tulip mania. It went up 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.400 and it crashed, and then it came back and it crashed, 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:12.920 and then it came up and it crashed and it 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:14.920 came back. So it comes back over and over. Now 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:18.600 let's get to the homes set in the stage. Don't worry, 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:20.240 we're going to break this down. Now, here's the home. 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.240 So this is what the guy is telling me, Mark, 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.160 you don't understand. See how big the bubble was here 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:28.680 in two thousand and eight. See how far this got overextended. 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:34.480 But look how much higher homes priced are today. They're 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.640 way higher than they were in two thousand and eight. 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.960 And don't you know that mortgage rates are way higher 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:42.560 and people can't afford homes, and don't you know there's 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:45.160 a recession coming and people are broke. And don't you 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:47.560 know that if mortgage rates go up, home prices are 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.600 going to have to crash down. Don't you know, Mark, 0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:53.000 We're in a big bubble. You obviously don't understand real 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:57.079 estate prices. Okay, Now there's another chart, and this is 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.440 where people get misled. Okay, this is the the Case 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:02.560 Shiller Index. And just so you don't know, the Case 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.360 Shiller Index tracks the home prices across the United States. 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.800 So we have the Case Shiller index, and we also 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:11.680 have an inflation adjusted Okay, so this right here is 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:13.480 the charge. I just showed you the Case Shiller index, 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:15.240 and again you see it went up in two thousand 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.640 and eight, it came down, went back up, and so 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:19.959 we're way above the two thousand and eight level. Now. 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.920 But you might say, but Mark, I know we have inflation, right, 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:25.040 because the Feds printed all this money and prices go 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:28.240 up naturally, right, So if we adjust this for inflation, 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:30.440 you can see that we went up in two thousand 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.560 and eight, they came down. But because of all the 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:36.240 money printing. This isn't real. These prices aren't real. Right here, 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:38.720 this is the actual real price, as it says, real 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:41.840 Case Shiller index. And again if you draw a trend 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.480 line boom boom boom, boom boom, you can see that 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:48.800 we're actually above that as well. So even if you 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.600 adjusted for inflation mark, it looks like the Case Shiller 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:56.920 index is up. Well, that might be your guess, but 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.040 that would be wrong as well. Don't worry, We're gonna 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:03.840 break this down. The reason why is because the government 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:09.200 reported CPI data. Inflation isn't the number you should be 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.840 looking at this where everybody goes wrong with all your investments, 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.560 with all your loans, with everything. Okay, So the first 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.480 one I have to understand is that game on the 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.160 reason why we have been seeing a rally and the 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:22.960 reason why we have this asset bubble goes back to 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:25.440 the very first slide I showed you from Wikipedia, which 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.480 is it's monetary easing. Okay, So I have jer own 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.360 Powell here right here, and we see that it all 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:37.800 starts from monetary policy. If monetary policy is loose, the 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:42.160 expansion of the money supply is fast. Asset prices go up. 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.760 If they tighten things, things slow back down. Now we know, 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.000 if you've been following my channel, you've been paying attention, 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:53.240 you know that November around October November of twenty twenty 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:56.360 one mark the top of the last cycle. It was 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:58.680 the peak for the Nasdaq, it was the peak for 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.480 the for bitcoin, the peak for housing, all of those things. 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.080 Now they've gone onto rebound since then. And the reason 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:07.960 why is because in November twenty twenty one, the Federal 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.760 Reserve FED announced that it would begin to taper, or 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.800 tighten the monetary base. So it had been easying, they 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.080 decided to taper, popularly known as quantitative. They're going to 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:22.640 taper the quantitative tightening. So we're going from easing into tightening. Okay, 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.280 and we can see that. So we have the FED 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.280 funds rate. You may know, some of this stuff will 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:29.599 go through it quickly, and basically the Fed is just 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:32.520 knee jerking reaction. Lay lower interest rates, they raise interest rates. 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.040 They lower rates, They kept them low for a very 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:36.520 long period of time. They tried to raise them, they 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:38.920 crashed the economy, they lowered them again, and they raising 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.120 them back up again. Are you getting the point? So 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:45.400 we watch FED policy to see what's going on there. Okay, 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:47.360 now the other thing we want to take a look 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:51.240 at is the money base. So when they lower rates, 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:54.559 for example, right, like an iPhone whatever, it's fifteen hundred bucks. 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.800 Do you think if Apple put their iPhones on self 0:12:56.840 --> 0:13:00.360 for one hundred dollars more people would buy iPhones? Right? So, 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.439 when loans are expensive, less people get loans. When loans 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.360 are super cheap, more people get loans. And remember weren't 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.640 a debt based monetary system, so money is created through 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.600 debt issuance. So when rates are cheap, more people get loans, 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:14.920 more money is created. We look at the FED. This 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:17.800 is the M two money supply chart, So this is 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.040 the amount of money that's been created through all that 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.679 debt expansion. Now, what we can see is this trend 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.200 line going back to about two thousand and five, two thousand, 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:26.720 I don't know is that two thousand and three ish. 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:28.920 And you can see this trend line that I've put here. 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.280 Now I circled this right here because this was the 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.960 two thousand and eight housing crash. Now, as you remember 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:37.520 from the housing chart, the houses went up like this 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.360 and came down, but there was really no reason to 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.839 because the money supply wasn't really expanding, but you can 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:47.760 see the money supply kind of continued this trend trend trend, trend, trend, 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.400 trend trend. And right here in twenty twenty, when the 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.280 Great Pandemic happened and they printed all that stimulus, you 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:56.880 can see the balance sheet went to the moon. Now 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.600 I circled this right here. This is right when monetary 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:04.320 base actually started to dwindle. So remember about October November 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.480 of twenty twenty one, the Fed said they were going 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:08.679 to do it. They didn't actually start doing it till 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:10.520 the beginning of twenty twenty two. The reason why is 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.480 the Fed is always trying to project out months in 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.840 advance what's going to happen, like Jerome Powell's press conference 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:17.920 talking about the potential rate cuts coming. We'll come back 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.400 to that in a minute. But they tell us months 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.120 in advance what's going to happen, so they don't shock 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:24.560 the market. And so we can see they announced they 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.920 would start rate tapering, and they did and the monetary 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:30.840 base started coming back down. Now, the other thing we 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:32.560 want to look at is not just the money supply, 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.040 but we want to look at the fed balance sheet, 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.000 all right, So this is how much assets are keeping 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:38.880 on their books, because there's not just money on their books, 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:43.760 it's assets. It's mortgages, mortgage backed securities in some cases, bonds, 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.560 other securities, things like that. Now we see again in 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.120 two thousand and eight how fast their balance sheet went up. 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.800 In twenty twenty, how fast their balance sheet up. And 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.920 this is the taper that we've been talking about, almost 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.120 kind of getting us back to the start, all right, 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.320 So you can see that's what they're doing. Now. The 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.240 question is what's going to happen with the US debt 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:07.400 and the US borrowing. That's the big question. Now. I 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:09.040 want to just make one more point before we move 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.000 into that, and that's that all eyes don't need to 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:13.960 be on the US. I mean they should when the 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.040 US is the global reserve currency of the world, the 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:18.560 US is the financial market of the world. However, when 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:20.360 it comes to liquidity, we want to be looking at 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.720 global liquidity at least the main central bank, So at 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:29.080 least the US, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, China, 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:31.120 the PBOC, We at least want to be looking at 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.800 those major central banks. And what we do when we 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.040 look at that, we can see a different picture. So 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:38.720 what we have here, the green is the rate of change. 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:43.400 This is more liquidity, more monetary easing. This is restriction 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:49.240 of easing, increase of liquidity, decrease of liquidity increase, right, 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.120 you see that. And what we have here on this 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.640 blue line, so the green is the is the money 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:57.360 supply growth change, the year over year change in the 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.680 money supply. The blue line is the actual m too 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.160 money supply. So when it goes down, we see there's 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.760 a dip. As it goes up, it goes back up. Right, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.840 when there's a dip, this goes down, but the money supply, 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.240 the base has continued to go up, up up. Now, 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:15.960 put a couple of lines here. Why is this Well, 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:19.440 what we can see is these are moving on four 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:21.520 year cycles. I'm going to come back to this. You 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:23.280 watch my videos on a regular basis, you know what 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.120 that means. I'm going to come back to this in 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:27.880 more detail. But you can see this is happening on 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:31.520 a four year cycle. Now right here, this arrow is 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.480 when the Fed announced they were going to start tightening. 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:38.960 This little peak in that arrow is when the Fed 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.360 actually started tightening. Remember I said it was a couple 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.440 months later. Now you can see as soon as they 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.760 did that, we plunged off of a cliff. Now I 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.440 put this arrow right here because that was about October 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:54.360 of twenty twenty two. And if you go back on 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:56.880 my channel and scroll back to about October twenty two, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.120 you'll see I made a video that says there is 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.320 no crash coming. And here's why. I proceeded to make 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.840 several videos explaining that, and we have been expanding the 0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:10.960 liquidity base ever since, again on four year cycles. We're 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.720 going to come back to that in a minute. Okay, 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.320 So we looked at the asset prices, we looked at stocks, 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:17.760 and we looked at real estate. They're all in massive bubbles, right, 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:21.240 They're all at new highs homes even adjusted for inflation, 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.240 or at new all time highs. They must be overpriced. 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.359 They must be over expensive, especially considering where rates are 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.679 and all those things. Right. But then we looked at 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.840 the FED and how the FED eases and tightens. All right, now, 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:35.000 we're going to get to the real data. This is 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:37.320 what most people are missing. So let me explain now. 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:38.919 I do want to say just real quickly before I 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.639 break down the real data and when everybody's missing. I 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:43.600 am going to have a live event next week. I'd 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:44.960 love for you to come hang out. If you think 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.000 there's a lot of charts, I have even more, and 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.439 I'm going to show you where the only place to 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:51.040 invest in is. I'm going to give you probably the 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:54.200 top five or six ideas and picks that I'm looking 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:55.880 at right now, and we're going to do it live, 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:58.119 and I'm going to take all your questions live so 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.320 we can really get this figured out where you can 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:01.800 figure out how to implement this. If you'd love to 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:03.240 come in with me, and it's all free, there's a 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.520 link down below. I'd love to see you there if 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:07.680 you want to really learn this stuff and actually apply 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:09.520 it and make a lot of money over the next twelve, 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:12.560 you know, fifteen months coming out. It's free. Okay, So 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:16.400 now taking another look? All right? So now let's take 0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:18.119 another look at the stocks. We'll look at the S 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.480 and P five hundred and the NASDAC and here's where 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:23.320 it gets really interesting. So I showed you that the 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.520 S and P five hundred is a new all time eyes. 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.160 Its surpassed the two thousand and eight high, the twenty 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:35.560 twenty high, and it's way above the trend line, right right. Okay, 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:39.199 so here's another chart. Now what we have here is 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:40.840 what I've done is I've taken the S and P 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.720 five hundred in a massive bubble, and I've now adjusted 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:49.120 it for the money supply growth. You see, every asset 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:54.400 has a nominator and a denominator. So a home priced 0:18:54.400 --> 0:19:01.200 in US dollars, right, bitcoin priced in US dollars. So 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:04.400 what if it's not Bitcoin that's going up. What if 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:08.600