Speaker 1: The everything bubble is pushed asset prices like stocks, real
Speaker 1: estate and bitcoin two crazy new all time highs and
Speaker 1: the pinprick. It's coming and they're all gonna burst, and
Speaker 1: everything's gonna come crashing down. Well, at least that's what
Speaker 1: you know. Mainstream analysts like Michael Burry, Jim Rickards, my
Speaker 1: good friend, Robert Kiyosaki, Harry Dent, Mike Maloney, Peter Schiff,
Speaker 1: Jeremy Grantham, list goes on and more of those people
Speaker 1: keep telling us, keep showing us that this bubble is
Speaker 1: going to burst. But could they all be wrong? What
Speaker 1: if the bubble they're seeing isn't really what it seems.
Speaker 1: So in this video, we're gonna look at these crazy
Speaker 1: asset bubbles. We're gonna look at the rise and fall
Speaker 1: of each, We're gonna look at the fundamental drivers of
Speaker 1: these asset bubbles, the cycles that are moving them along,
Speaker 1: and what to expect next. Now, based off my social
Speaker 1: media post over the last few days and weeks, it
Speaker 1: seems that no one's prepared to see this data. It's
Speaker 1: gonna challenge every belief and every bias that you have.
Speaker 1: But if you want to know the truth, then stick around,
Speaker 1: and let's go all right, and real quick before we do,
Speaker 1: if you knew the channel, my name is Mark Moss.
Speaker 1: I've been investing through multiple bear market cycles. I've seen
Speaker 1: my share of asset bubbles. I started investing right before
Speaker 1: the dot com boom and the bust. I've been built
Speaker 1: up two tech companies with big exits. I had a big,
Speaker 1: multi eight figure real estate portfolio only to see the
Speaker 1: real estate asset bubble crash in two thousand and eight,
Speaker 1: and so I've been studying these events in great detail
Speaker 1: ever since. And I've been making these educational videes for
Speaker 1: over five years to help you avoid the same mistakes
Speaker 1: and pain that I had to go through. So let's
Speaker 1: jump right in. All right, So we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about the everything bubble, and I'm going to talk really
Speaker 1: fast because I have a ton of data. I got
Speaker 1: a ton of charts that I'm going to show you,
Speaker 1: So I'm going to go through them as quickly as
Speaker 1: I can, try to keep the ad libbing down to
Speaker 1: a minimum. All right, but we're going to talk about
Speaker 1: the everything bubble as a drome. Pal is showing us
Speaker 1: right here, and look, most people have this completely wrong.
Speaker 1: It's a reverse thinking of what most people think. It's
Speaker 1: why I've been une for about the last year and
Speaker 1: a half. You can see my record on the videos
Speaker 1: down below. And we're going to talk about this now.
Speaker 1: The first thing, let's just frame this up. Okay, We're
Speaker 1: going to start from the beginning. What the heck is
Speaker 1: this everything bubble? It was a term that was really
Speaker 1: coined by Jennet Yellen back when she was running the FED,
Speaker 1: and it's basically an everything bubble refers to a correlated
Speaker 1: impact of monetary easing. So in Wikipedia sort of tells
Speaker 1: you this, but for some reason, all these analysts and
Speaker 1: all these people on Twitter and social media, they don't
Speaker 1: understand it. It's a correlated impact of monetary easy We'll
Speaker 1: come back to that. It says monetary easing on asset prices.
Speaker 1: So what is monetary easing due to asset prices creates
Speaker 1: and everything bubble? The policy itself and the techniques of
Speaker 1: direct and indirect, direct and indirect of quantitative easing. Why
Speaker 1: do I stop there? Because people are like, but Mark,
Speaker 1: we haven't been having quantitative easying. Look, the Fed's been
Speaker 1: tightening well direct and indirect. So while their official policy
Speaker 1: has been tightening. All the indrec stuff they've been doing
Speaker 1: has had the same effect of easying, like the BTFP program,
Speaker 1: for example. And it says the FED put is a
Speaker 1: modern monetary theory. So modern monetary theory means that we
Speaker 1: can just print as much as we want. There's no
Speaker 1: limit to the amount of money that we can just create.
Speaker 1: And if we print too much and inflation is too high,
Speaker 1: then we can tax it out, sort of like a
Speaker 1: drain on a bathtub. We're gonna come back to this,
Speaker 1: but this sort of frames it up right here. But
Speaker 1: most people just don't understand this. Now, a bubble, I
Speaker 1: often say when someone says, hey, but Bitcoin, our houses
Speaker 1: or stocks are in a bubble. Everything's always the bubble. Now,
Speaker 1: the question is at what stage in the bubble we are, right, So,
Speaker 1: if an asset price is going up, Let's imagine if
Speaker 1: we have a baseline. If an asset price is going up,
Speaker 1: that's a bubble. Now is it low? Is high? Right?
Speaker 1: So the question is what stage? So here's the stages
Speaker 1: that we have the takeoff of the bubble. If we're
Speaker 1: in this stage of the bubble, no big deal, right,
Speaker 1: then we have this first sell off. They call this
Speaker 1: a bear trap. You know. If we're in this stage
Speaker 1: of the bubble, no big deal. It's this part, this
Speaker 1: part of the bubble that we want to be careful of.
Speaker 1: We have this enthusiasm, greed, delusion, and a new paradigm.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, a'readaet so rich, I'll never go down.
Speaker 1: And then finally denial and it crashes back down. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's what people typically see, but that's not all what
Speaker 1: it seems. Now a few notable bubbles from history. We
Speaker 1: have the tulip bubble. It's the most famous one in history.
Speaker 1: And tulips in Holland, like the flower, they got so overbought.
Speaker 1: It created this massive peak and then they sold off.
Speaker 1: Now a lot of people like to say, oh, tulip mania,
Speaker 1: it's sort of like the doc or sort of like bitcoin.
Speaker 1: Well not really, because the tulipmania never came back. It
Speaker 1: never rebounded again. The dot com went up and down,
Speaker 1: but of course it's way higher today. Bitcoin went up
Speaker 1: and down, and of course it's way higher today. So
Speaker 1: it's a little bit different. You have to understand sort
Speaker 1: of how these work. And I wanted to show you
Speaker 1: the dot com for example. Now, the dot com was
Speaker 1: a bubble, and it did crash. And when we talk
Speaker 1: about the bubble, we can see I drew this trend
Speaker 1: line for you right here. So this is the NASDAC right,
Speaker 1: which is represented sort of the dot com bubble from
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy seven to twenty twenty four. And what we
Speaker 1: can see is right here, this did create a bubble,
Speaker 1: right It got way over the trend line. So it
Speaker 1: crashed down, so back to the mean, back to the
Speaker 1: trend line. It bounced around, tested the trend line again,
Speaker 1: and then it took off to new all time highs.
Speaker 1: So this right here is what we're looking for. Really,
Speaker 1: are we looking for things that are way too over extended,
Speaker 1: way too overpriced, or are they underpriced? But most people
Speaker 1: don't understand this. Okay, I know it sounds like a
Speaker 1: simple concept. Stick with me. Okay, this is very crucial
Speaker 1: you understand this. So now let's look at asset bubbles.
Speaker 1: And again I'm gonna talk fast. I got a lot
Speaker 1: of data, Okay, so let's look at stocks. I did
Speaker 1: a poll on my Instagram and I basically asked my
Speaker 1: audience on Instagram, what do you think is the biggest
Speaker 1: asset bubble? Stocks, real estate or bitcoin or other, and
Speaker 1: almost everybody thought that stocks in real estate were the
Speaker 1: two biggest bubbles. They were about tied. So let's take
Speaker 1: a look at those bubbles. Now what we can see,
Speaker 1: and actually we're in a stocks real estate we're gonna
Speaker 1: look a bit poin. This is the tweet that sort
Speaker 1: of kicked all this off. My good friend Lynn Alden
Speaker 1: put up this tweet on Twitter. If you're follow me,
Speaker 1: I'll linked to my Twitter down below. You can see
Speaker 1: us going back and forth on these things. It's kind
Speaker 1: of fun. This is what sparked this whole video. And
Speaker 1: she basically said that in two thousand and eight right here,
Speaker 1: the housing bubble got overextended, but today it seems to
Speaker 1: be driven by something else, which I replied, it's like
Speaker 1: a bubble in the denominator. You may not understand what
Speaker 1: that is. I'm going to break it down for you.
Speaker 1: And this guy right here, Darth Powell. He likes to
Speaker 1: comment on Twitter a bunch. He says to me, Mark,
Speaker 1: you just don't understand how real estate is priced. Actually,
Speaker 1: he said, you do't understand how real estate is priced? Mark,
Speaker 1: Oh I don't. Well, I've been a real estate I
Speaker 1: started my career in real estate. I still invest in
Speaker 1: real estate. I don't understand. You don't typically want to
Speaker 1: tell that to people like you don't know what they know.
Speaker 1: He says, I don't understand, which then of course I
Speaker 1: had to reply, and I said, I did it gracefully.
Speaker 1: I said, look, I just don't understand real estate. And
Speaker 1: I didn't und stay aything else. I just gave him
Speaker 1: the data. All right, I'm going to break this data
Speaker 1: down for you. But this is what sort of sparked this.
Speaker 1: You don't want to be like that guy. You want
Speaker 1: to know the data, at least if you want to
Speaker 1: make money. So let's take a look at this. So
Speaker 1: if we go back to the s and P five
Speaker 1: hundred and are we in a bubble? Now? I drew
Speaker 1: a trend line from nineteen eight to twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: and we see here again in the two thousand dot
Speaker 1: com bubble, it got way over extended, and then it recovered,
Speaker 1: and then it got way over extended in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight again, and then it recovered. All right. Now
Speaker 1: from two thousand and eight, we can see this trend
Speaker 1: line going straight up. Now, if you're saying, well, Mark,
Speaker 1: you said this was overextended. Here you might say, well,
Speaker 1: this is actually over extended, and you would actually be right.
Speaker 1: So these two areas look very bubbleish. So the S
Speaker 1: and P five hundred does look like it's in a
Speaker 1: massive bubble right now, similar to here. Okay, but that's
Speaker 1: only from the basic This is where most people go wrong.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna break this down for you. Don't worry, Okay,
Speaker 1: if we zoom in just a little bit, just so
Speaker 1: you can see it a little bit better. Here's the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred now just from we'll get
Speaker 1: from two thousand and eight until now, and again you
Speaker 1: can see I mean, obviously it moves up and down
Speaker 1: off this trend line, so you know from where it's
Speaker 1: been over the trend line. It's not super high. We're
Speaker 1: not super high. I wouldn't call this a big bubble,
Speaker 1: but again, it's not what it seems. This is what
Speaker 1: people are totally missing out on. Let's take a look
Speaker 1: at the Nasdaq. The nasdack again is sort of represented
Speaker 1: by the tech stocks, and again sort of the same
Speaker 1: time period from two thousand and eight. Of course, it
Speaker 1: bounces up and down on the trend line, so it
Speaker 1: gets over extended, right a little bit expensive, a little
Speaker 1: bit cheap, little bit expensive, a little bit cheap. You know,
Speaker 1: it got a little bubbish here. It broke through the
Speaker 1: trend line here, and now it's bouncing back up. We're
Speaker 1: not high above the trend line. So everyone's like, oh
Speaker 1: my gosh, it's a bubble. Well why why? Because we're
Speaker 1: way up from here? Is that why? Because the prices
Speaker 1: are more expensive they used to be. Is that why?
Speaker 1: Hang on, don't worry to break this down. Okay, now bitcoin,
Speaker 1: of course bitcoin's in a massive bubble. We can see
Speaker 1: this now, back to the tulip mania. It went up
Speaker 1: and it crashed, and then it came back and it crashed,
Speaker 1: and then it came up and it crashed and it
Speaker 1: came back. So it comes back over and over. Now
Speaker 1: let's get to the homes set in the stage. Don't worry,
Speaker 1: we're going to break this down. Now, here's the home.
Speaker 1: So this is what the guy is telling me, Mark,
Speaker 1: you don't understand. See how big the bubble was here
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight. See how far this got overextended.
Speaker 1: But look how much higher homes priced are today. They're
Speaker 1: way higher than they were in two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1: And don't you know that mortgage rates are way higher
Speaker 1: and people can't afford homes, and don't you know there's
Speaker 1: a recession coming and people are broke. And don't you
Speaker 1: know that if mortgage rates go up, home prices are
Speaker 1: going to have to crash down. Don't you know, Mark,
Speaker 1: We're in a big bubble. You obviously don't understand real
Speaker 1: estate prices. Okay, Now there's another chart, and this is
Speaker 1: where people get misled. Okay, this is the the Case
Speaker 1: Shiller Index. And just so you don't know, the Case
Speaker 1: Shiller Index tracks the home prices across the United States.
Speaker 1: So we have the Case Shiller index, and we also
Speaker 1: have an inflation adjusted Okay, so this right here is
Speaker 1: the charge. I just showed you the Case Shiller index,
Speaker 1: and again you see it went up in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, it came down, went back up, and so
Speaker 1: we're way above the two thousand and eight level. Now.
Speaker 1: But you might say, but Mark, I know we have inflation, right,
Speaker 1: because the Feds printed all this money and prices go
Speaker 1: up naturally, right, So if we adjust this for inflation,
Speaker 1: you can see that we went up in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, they came down. But because of all the
Speaker 1: money printing. This isn't real. These prices aren't real. Right here,
Speaker 1: this is the actual real price, as it says, real
Speaker 1: Case Shiller index. And again if you draw a trend
Speaker 1: line boom boom boom, boom boom, you can see that
Speaker 1: we're actually above that as well. So even if you
Speaker 1: adjusted for inflation mark, it looks like the Case Shiller
Speaker 1: index is up. Well, that might be your guess, but
Speaker 1: that would be wrong as well. Don't worry, We're gonna
Speaker 1: break this down. The reason why is because the government
Speaker 1: reported CPI data. Inflation isn't the number you should be
Speaker 1: looking at this where everybody goes wrong with all your investments,
Speaker 1: with all your loans, with everything. Okay, So the first
Speaker 1: one I have to understand is that game on the
Speaker 1: reason why we have been seeing a rally and the
Speaker 1: reason why we have this asset bubble goes back to
Speaker 1: the very first slide I showed you from Wikipedia, which
Speaker 1: is it's monetary easing. Okay, So I have jer own
Speaker 1: Powell here right here, and we see that it all
Speaker 1: starts from monetary policy. If monetary policy is loose, the
Speaker 1: expansion of the money supply is fast. Asset prices go up.
Speaker 1: If they tighten things, things slow back down. Now we know,
Speaker 1: if you've been following my channel, you've been paying attention,
Speaker 1: you know that November around October November of twenty twenty
Speaker 1: one mark the top of the last cycle. It was
Speaker 1: the peak for the Nasdaq, it was the peak for
Speaker 1: the for bitcoin, the peak for housing, all of those things.
Speaker 1: Now they've gone onto rebound since then. And the reason
Speaker 1: why is because in November twenty twenty one, the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve FED announced that it would begin to taper, or
Speaker 1: tighten the monetary base. So it had been easying, they
Speaker 1: decided to taper, popularly known as quantitative. They're going to
Speaker 1: taper the quantitative tightening. So we're going from easing into tightening. Okay,
Speaker 1: and we can see that. So we have the FED
Speaker 1: funds rate. You may know, some of this stuff will
Speaker 1: go through it quickly, and basically the Fed is just
Speaker 1: knee jerking reaction. Lay lower interest rates, they raise interest rates.
Speaker 1: They lower rates, They kept them low for a very
Speaker 1: long period of time. They tried to raise them, they
Speaker 1: crashed the economy, they lowered them again, and they raising
Speaker 1: them back up again. Are you getting the point? So
Speaker 1: we watch FED policy to see what's going on there. Okay,
Speaker 1: now the other thing we want to take a look
Speaker 1: at is the money base. So when they lower rates,
Speaker 1: for example, right, like an iPhone whatever, it's fifteen hundred bucks.
Speaker 1: Do you think if Apple put their iPhones on self
Speaker 1: for one hundred dollars more people would buy iPhones? Right? So,
Speaker 1: when loans are expensive, less people get loans. When loans
Speaker 1: are super cheap, more people get loans. And remember weren't
Speaker 1: a debt based monetary system, so money is created through
Speaker 1: debt issuance. So when rates are cheap, more people get loans,
Speaker 1: more money is created. We look at the FED. This
Speaker 1: is the M two money supply chart, So this is
Speaker 1: the amount of money that's been created through all that
Speaker 1: debt expansion. Now, what we can see is this trend
Speaker 1: line going back to about two thousand and five, two thousand,
Speaker 1: I don't know is that two thousand and three ish.
Speaker 1: And you can see this trend line that I've put here.
Speaker 1: Now I circled this right here because this was the
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight housing crash. Now, as you remember
Speaker 1: from the housing chart, the houses went up like this
Speaker 1: and came down, but there was really no reason to
Speaker 1: because the money supply wasn't really expanding, but you can
Speaker 1: see the money supply kind of continued this trend trend trend, trend, trend,
Speaker 1: trend trend. And right here in twenty twenty, when the
Speaker 1: Great Pandemic happened and they printed all that stimulus, you
Speaker 1: can see the balance sheet went to the moon. Now
Speaker 1: I circled this right here. This is right when monetary
Speaker 1: base actually started to dwindle. So remember about October November
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one, the Fed said they were going
Speaker 1: to do it. They didn't actually start doing it till
Speaker 1: the beginning of twenty twenty two. The reason why is
Speaker 1: the Fed is always trying to project out months in
Speaker 1: advance what's going to happen, like Jerome Powell's press conference
Speaker 1: talking about the potential rate cuts coming. We'll come back
Speaker 1: to that in a minute. But they tell us months
Speaker 1: in advance what's going to happen, so they don't shock
Speaker 1: the market. And so we can see they announced they
Speaker 1: would start rate tapering, and they did and the monetary
Speaker 1: base started coming back down. Now, the other thing we
Speaker 1: want to look at is not just the money supply,
Speaker 1: but we want to look at the fed balance sheet,
Speaker 1: all right, So this is how much assets are keeping
Speaker 1: on their books, because there's not just money on their books,
Speaker 1: it's assets. It's mortgages, mortgage backed securities in some cases, bonds,
Speaker 1: other securities, things like that. Now we see again in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight how fast their balance sheet went up.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, how fast their balance sheet up. And
Speaker 1: this is the taper that we've been talking about, almost
Speaker 1: kind of getting us back to the start, all right,
Speaker 1: So you can see that's what they're doing. Now. The
Speaker 1: question is what's going to happen with the US debt
Speaker 1: and the US borrowing. That's the big question. Now. I
Speaker 1: want to just make one more point before we move
Speaker 1: into that, and that's that all eyes don't need to
Speaker 1: be on the US. I mean they should when the
Speaker 1: US is the global reserve currency of the world, the
Speaker 1: US is the financial market of the world. However, when
Speaker 1: it comes to liquidity, we want to be looking at
Speaker 1: global liquidity at least the main central bank, So at
Speaker 1: least the US, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, China,
Speaker 1: the PBOC, We at least want to be looking at
Speaker 1: those major central banks. And what we do when we
Speaker 1: look at that, we can see a different picture. So
Speaker 1: what we have here, the green is the rate of change.
Speaker 1: This is more liquidity, more monetary easing. This is restriction
Speaker 1: of easing, increase of liquidity, decrease of liquidity increase, right,
Speaker 1: you see that. And what we have here on this
Speaker 1: blue line, so the green is the is the money
Speaker 1: supply growth change, the year over year change in the
Speaker 1: money supply. The blue line is the actual m too
Speaker 1: money supply. So when it goes down, we see there's
Speaker 1: a dip. As it goes up, it goes back up. Right,
Speaker 1: when there's a dip, this goes down, but the money supply,
Speaker 1: the base has continued to go up, up up. Now,
Speaker 1: put a couple of lines here. Why is this Well,
Speaker 1: what we can see is these are moving on four
Speaker 1: year cycles. I'm going to come back to this. You
Speaker 1: watch my videos on a regular basis, you know what
Speaker 1: that means. I'm going to come back to this in
Speaker 1: more detail. But you can see this is happening on
Speaker 1: a four year cycle. Now right here, this arrow is
Speaker 1: when the Fed announced they were going to start tightening.
Speaker 1: This little peak in that arrow is when the Fed
Speaker 1: actually started tightening. Remember I said it was a couple
Speaker 1: months later. Now you can see as soon as they
Speaker 1: did that, we plunged off of a cliff. Now I
Speaker 1: put this arrow right here because that was about October
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two. And if you go back on
Speaker 1: my channel and scroll back to about October twenty two,
Speaker 1: you'll see I made a video that says there is
Speaker 1: no crash coming. And here's why. I proceeded to make
Speaker 1: several videos explaining that, and we have been expanding the
Speaker 1: liquidity base ever since, again on four year cycles. We're
Speaker 1: going to come back to that in a minute. Okay,
Speaker 1: So we looked at the asset prices, we looked at stocks,
Speaker 1: and we looked at real estate. They're all in massive bubbles, right,
Speaker 1: They're all at new highs homes even adjusted for inflation,
Speaker 1: or at new all time highs. They must be overpriced.
Speaker 1: They must be over expensive, especially considering where rates are
Speaker 1: and all those things. Right. But then we looked at
Speaker 1: the FED and how the FED eases and tightens. All right, now,
Speaker 1: we're going to get to the real data. This is
Speaker 1: what most people are missing. So let me explain now.
Speaker 1: I do want to say just real quickly before I
Speaker 1: break down the real data and when everybody's missing. I
Speaker 1: am going to have a live event next week. I'd
Speaker 1: love for you to come hang out. If you think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of charts, I have even more, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to show you where the only place to
Speaker 1: invest in is. I'm going to give you probably the
Speaker 1: top five or six ideas and picks that I'm looking
Speaker 1: at right now, and we're going to do it live,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to take all your questions live so
Speaker 1: we can really get this figured out where you can
Speaker 1: figure out how to implement this. If you'd love to
Speaker 1: come in with me, and it's all free, there's a
Speaker 1: link down below. I'd love to see you there if
Speaker 1: you want to really learn this stuff and actually apply
Speaker 1: it and make a lot of money over the next twelve,
Speaker 1: you know, fifteen months coming out. It's free. Okay, So
Speaker 1: now taking another look? All right? So now let's take
Speaker 1: another look at the stocks. We'll look at the S
Speaker 1: and P five hundred and the NASDAC and here's where
Speaker 1: it gets really interesting. So I showed you that the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred is a new all time eyes.
Speaker 1: Its surpassed the two thousand and eight high, the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty high, and it's way above the trend line, right right. Okay,
Speaker 1: so here's another chart. Now what we have here is
Speaker 1: what I've done is I've taken the S and P
Speaker 1: five hundred in a massive bubble, and I've now adjusted
Speaker 1: it for the money supply growth. You see, every asset
Speaker 1: has a nominator and a denominator. So a home priced
Speaker 1: in US dollars, right, bitcoin priced in US dollars. So
Speaker 1: what if it's not Bitcoin that's going up. What if
Speaker 1: it's the denominator, the US dollars that are pushing it up.
Speaker 1: That's the question I posed on the Twitter thread that
Speaker 1: started this whole video idea. And let me show you
Speaker 1: the proof of that now. So what we do is
Speaker 1: we adjust it for the dominator. Again, I have the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred adjusted for the dominator, the
Speaker 1: M two money supply, and what we can see is
Speaker 1: that the S and P five hundred is down twenty
Speaker 1: two percent when adjusted for the money supply since the
Speaker 1: year two thousand. So it looks like it's in a
Speaker 1: massive bubble, but again it's being pushed up. This is
Speaker 1: why in your retirement account or four o'kay mutual fund,
Speaker 1: you look on paper nominally like you're getting rich. However,
Speaker 1: your standard living is going down because your dollars don't
Speaker 1: buy as much stuff. They buy you twenty two percent
Speaker 1: less stuff when measured this way. Another way we could
Speaker 1: look at it is we'd look at the S and
Speaker 1: P five hundred priced in gold the same exact period.
Speaker 1: It's down sixty percent when priced in gold. So the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred is not in a bubble.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact. You can see it's been
Speaker 1: almost completely flat right here. I mean it did have
Speaker 1: a dip right here, but it's been almost completely sideways.
Speaker 1: There's no bubble at all. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: prices crashed and have never come back. Okay, that's the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred. Now the Nasdaq covers the
Speaker 1: tech stocks. They've been much more explosive. So let's take
Speaker 1: a look and see what's been going on there. What
Speaker 1: we can see here is about the same thing. Now,
Speaker 1: we did have this massive dot com boom and bust,
Speaker 1: and since that time, we take the Nasdaq, we adjusted
Speaker 1: for the into the money supply growth, and we can
Speaker 1: see that the Nasdaq is also down twenty percent. Now
Speaker 1: this period has been sort of flat. We have this
Speaker 1: long prolonged period here. Now it is up. It is up, granted,
Speaker 1: but it's still down twenty percent. It has not reached
Speaker 1: its previous all time has not even really come close.
Speaker 1: We can take a look at the same way. We
Speaker 1: take the Nasdaq and we price it in gold, and
Speaker 1: we can see about the same thing. In the same
Speaker 1: time period, the Nasdaq is down sixty percent to goal
Speaker 1: nowhere near all time highs nowhere, exceeding all time highs
Speaker 1: and moving sideways in this whole sector right here, Let's
Speaker 1: keep going. Let's go back to real estate. This is
Speaker 1: the one that started all because as that guy Darth
Speaker 1: what's his name, Darth Powell, I think it was told
Speaker 1: me Mark, you just to understand real estate prices. So
Speaker 1: if we take real estate prices, which again even when
Speaker 1: adjusted foreignflation, look like they're higher than two thousand and eight,
Speaker 1: But again they use the wrong number. They're using just
Speaker 1: for inflation, as in CPI consumer price inflation, which is
Speaker 1: a completely wrong, completely manipulated, completely fabricated but number by
Speaker 1: the government. The real number is the rate of debasement.
Speaker 1: It's the rate of the monetary based expansion. That's the
Speaker 1: real number. It's your hurdle rate. Okay, So now I've
Speaker 1: taken in this case, what do we have? Okay, So
Speaker 1: in this case we have homes divided by the money
Speaker 1: supply adjusted not for inflation, adjusted for the debasement. And
Speaker 1: what we can see is a very similar thing from
Speaker 1: the year two thousand. We can see that homes are
Speaker 1: actually down forty seven percent, nowhere near bubble, nowhere near
Speaker 1: back to an all time high. Like it shows when
Speaker 1: you adjust for inflation, or when you don't adjust for inflation,
Speaker 1: when you adjust it for the real inflation, which was
Speaker 1: the definition of inflation, like previous nineteen fifty, when you
Speaker 1: adjust it for the monetary based expansion, we're actually down
Speaker 1: by forty seven percent. What about if we do homes
Speaker 1: priced in gold, well, we see a very similar thing.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, it's even worse. Homes are
Speaker 1: down seventy percent. They have moved completely sideways. There's no bubble,
Speaker 1: they have not gone up at all. It takes more
Speaker 1: dollars to buy those homes today. You have to understand
Speaker 1: this if you're ever going to make money, because that
Speaker 1: is a completely different game. Now. What a lot of
Speaker 1: people tell me then is mark. What you don't understand, though,
Speaker 1: because that may be true, and that might be right,
Speaker 1: but the price is still going up and it's unsustainable.
Speaker 1: There's no way the government can maintain this level of debt.
Speaker 1: There's no way that people can continue to pay those prices.
Speaker 1: It's unsustainable, they say. I mean, haven't you seen that
Speaker 1: interest payments on the debt have now exceeded the military mark.
Speaker 1: Of course I have, I reported on all the time.
Speaker 1: Now ding ding Ding is the first video we've done
Speaker 1: where the national debt clock to the United States debt
Speaker 1: clock has exceeded thirty five trillion dollars just a couple
Speaker 1: days ago. I think, amazing number. Now to make it
Speaker 1: even more amazing, and we've already added twelve billion under
Speaker 1: the back of that. I mean, we were going up
Speaker 1: at an astronomical rate, adding about a trillion about every
Speaker 1: quarter at this point. As a matter of fact, the government,
Speaker 1: the Treasury just put out the funding requirements, or I
Speaker 1: should say, the debt borrowing requirements just for the rest
Speaker 1: of the year, which is where, you know, not even
Speaker 1: half the year left, and I think it was like
Speaker 1: one point seven trillion they need to borrow just to
Speaker 1: get through the rest of the year. We're going up
Speaker 1: at an astronomical rate. So what we know is that
Speaker 1: this is unsustainable. Suppose that's what people tell us. Now,
Speaker 1: why why is it unsustainable? Let's just we'll come back
Speaker 1: to that. But we know the Fed is going back
Speaker 1: to easing. So there was a FED FOMC meeting that
Speaker 1: just happened, and we can see that the fm WASC
Speaker 1: does not change rates, but it sets the stage for
Speaker 1: September cuts. So we know that President Biden said that
Speaker 1: there would be in his words, there would be a
Speaker 1: rate cut before the election, which is November. This says
Speaker 1: for September. The Betting Markets CME, for example, shows that
Speaker 1: there's about one hundred percent probability that rates cuts will
Speaker 1: be there in September. And really the language that Jrome
Speaker 1: Pal used set the stage for it. I won't go
Speaker 1: into the details of it to keep this video short,
Speaker 1: but basically, when you study what he says, he basically
Speaker 1: set the stage for that to happen, which is why
Speaker 1: markets are pricing one hundred percent, which means we go
Speaker 1: back to easing, which means lower rates means more credit expansion,
Speaker 1: means more monetary based expansion, It means more debt to
Speaker 1: roll over. Now, why is that you might remember at
Speaker 1: the last debt ceiling debate, every year we have to
Speaker 1: haggle over will we raise the debt limit, and of
Speaker 1: course we always do every year President Biden. This is
Speaker 1: directly off the White House website remarks by President Biden
Speaker 1: on the need to raise the debt ceiling. And here's
Speaker 1: what he said. Raising the debt limit comes down to
Speaker 1: pain what we already owe, what has already been acquired,
Speaker 1: not anything new. Raising the debt limit comes down to
Speaker 1: not get anything new, Like he said, like, look, we
Speaker 1: need more debt. Give us more debt. Don't worry though,
Speaker 1: We're not going to go buy new stuff with the debt.
Speaker 1: You know, new stuff that would be productive that maybe
Speaker 1: we make more money with. We're not going to buy
Speaker 1: new stuff. We need new debt just to pay off
Speaker 1: the old debt. So I said, it's literally the definition
Speaker 1: of bunks. We need more debt to pay off the
Speaker 1: old debt. And the reason why I make that point
Speaker 1: is you have to understand that the debt never gets paid.
Speaker 1: The debt only gets rolled over. And because debt is
Speaker 1: issue or money grows through debt issuance. In order to
Speaker 1: roll over the debt, we have to print more money
Speaker 1: to roll over the success. So the debt doesn't get smaller,
Speaker 1: it gets bigger every single time. But again, but people say,
Speaker 1: but Mark, you don't understand this is unsustainable. I mean,
Speaker 1: look at the rate of interests going up. I mean,
Speaker 1: who who is going to continue People won't build buy debt,
Speaker 1: and who's going to continue to buy the treasuries. No
Speaker 1: one's going to buy them from the government. Right well,
Speaker 1: the government can just buy their own. The Fed can
Speaker 1: just buy the governments. We see this all the time.
Speaker 1: There is no example in history currently right now, Lebanon, Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina,
Speaker 1: you name it, right now today. Nor is there any
Speaker 1: historical precedents of a government going well, boys, that was
Speaker 1: a great run, pack it up, let's just go home.
Speaker 1: Never never once, never, once in history, nor in current times,
Speaker 1: have we ever seen that as long as there's ink
Speaker 1: to put in the money printer, they will continue to print.
Speaker 1: That's it. Period. As Biden said, we need to get
Speaker 1: more debt to keep paying the old debt. That's it.
Speaker 1: So when you think it's unsustainable, I mean, sure, eventually
Speaker 1: eventually this ends, but not anytime soon, nine time, probably
Speaker 1: not at least in the next decade. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be sustainable for a long time. I would imagine
Speaker 1: this number is going to get too well over one
Speaker 1: hundred trillion before we see any big problem. So when
Speaker 1: you see all those videos about this doom and gloom,
Speaker 1: maybe eventually, yes, of course. Uh, but I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: made a lot of money and retired before then. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's get to what the real bubble is. As I
Speaker 1: already said, the real bubble is in the denominator, not
Speaker 1: the top number, right, It's not in bitcoin or nasdak RESMP.
Speaker 1: It's in the bubble, the denominator of the dollars being printed.
Speaker 1: But really, what the real bubble is we have to
Speaker 1: think about like prices compared to what Well, when we
Speaker 1: think about prices compared to pay that's the problem because
Speaker 1: what we have is we have asked price is going
Speaker 1: up like this while your payer wages are going up
Speaker 1: like this, and so every year you fall further and
Speaker 1: further behind. You can see it in this chart right here.
Speaker 1: So this is growth of the stock market versus us
Speaker 1: household income. So what we have here, unfortunately, this orange
Speaker 1: line going back to two thousand and five This orange
Speaker 1: line is your household income, and notice it's stayed basically flat.
Speaker 1: The patient's on flatline. What we have here is the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred Right here, stocks are going
Speaker 1: up faster, faster, faster, and now they're going up like this.
Speaker 1: This is only twenty nineteen. And then we have the
Speaker 1: NASDAC that's going up like this. So right here you
Speaker 1: could buy the S and P five hundred NAS that
Speaker 1: you buy cheap here, but you're getting further and further
Speaker 1: and further and further behind. That's the real asset bubble,
Speaker 1: which maybe goes back to the point where mark, who's
Speaker 1: going to buy this stuff? Well, the richer still getting richer.
Speaker 1: Why are the rich getting richer? And how do you
Speaker 1: get richer with them? Well, before I answer that question,
Speaker 1: let me just go back to this four year cycle
Speaker 1: I teased out earlier. So remember the debt never gets paid.
Speaker 1: The debt can't get paid. I have videos on this
Speaker 1: will link to them down the show notes down below
Speaker 1: if you want to go watch them to understand why
Speaker 1: I can't get paid. So we have to get more
Speaker 1: debt to roll over the new debt so it gets refinanced.
Speaker 1: And as I showed you that chart earlier. These four
Speaker 1: year cycles. Basically there's this metronome phenomenon. I have a
Speaker 1: whole video on this breaking it down. I'm gonna link
Speaker 1: to it down below if you want to go watch it.
Speaker 1: And basically, the entire global debt solution the situation got
Speaker 1: refinanced in two thousand and eight. You know, if you're
Speaker 1: a mortgage company called you and say hey, we're gona
Speaker 1: give zero mortgage, like you would refinance. So when rate
Speaker 1: strup to zero in two thousand and eight, the whole
Speaker 1: world refinanced at once. What we can see in this
Speaker 1: chart is about seventy five percent of global debt is
Speaker 1: within about a five year period, most of it in
Speaker 1: about four years. And that four year period just happens
Speaker 1: to align with an election year, which we're in right now,
Speaker 1: and it also happens to align with a bitcoin having year,
Speaker 1: which again we're in right now. That's the importance of
Speaker 1: four year cycles. Now we can see this not just
Speaker 1: with debt cycles, but here's a four year business cycle.
Speaker 1: So businesses are on the same four year cycle, and
Speaker 1: we can see the liquidity cycle of the world oscillates
Speaker 1: on a four year cycle. It's important to understand that,
Speaker 1: so you know when you should be investing, pressing, and
Speaker 1: when you shouldn't. This is a chart of the global liquidity.
Speaker 1: If you watch my channel regularly, you've seen me use
Speaker 1: this before and again we can see that the amount
Speaker 1: of money, the debt, the money supply went up for
Speaker 1: four years, and it went down, went up for four years,
Speaker 1: and it went down, went up for four years. Oops.
Speaker 1: And remember that date October twenty twenty one they started
Speaker 1: going back down when the Feds so that they're gonna
Speaker 1: start tightening. And remember the other date, October twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: they started going back up again. Starting to see the
Speaker 1: pattern here. Okay, so now that you know all this,
Speaker 1: what do you do about it? How do you protect yourself?
Speaker 1: More important, how do you get ahead and make a
Speaker 1: lot of money during this? Well a couple of number one,
Speaker 1: As I showed you, wages are going like this while
Speaker 1: asset prices are going like this. That's not good. So
Speaker 1: the first thing is the rich are able to get
Speaker 1: richer because they control their income. So hopefully you're a
Speaker 1: business owner. If you're not a business owner, you probably
Speaker 1: should be because you need to be able to control
Speaker 1: your income as this goes up. The second thing is
Speaker 1: you need to buy assets. Remember, asset prices are going
Speaker 1: like this, your wages are going like this. So if
Speaker 1: all you do is depend on your assets or your wages,
Speaker 1: you're never going to make it. You need to get
Speaker 1: onto this track. This is the track you want to
Speaker 1: be on, not on this track. So you have to
Speaker 1: start buying assets. The next question is, well what assets
Speaker 1: should I buy? Well, I already showed you that houses,
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred are actually down when
Speaker 1: you adjust them for the monetary supply, which means they're
Speaker 1: not really that good of investments. Now, the reason why
Speaker 1: real estate is a good investment is because of the Well,
Speaker 1: there's four reasons why the leverage. The loan is one
Speaker 1: of them. If you can put ten percent down, right,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go to the other ones. If you
Speaker 1: want a whole video on why real estate is a
Speaker 1: better investment than most people realize, leave me a comment.
Speaker 1: I can do a whole video on that. So which
Speaker 1: assets should you buy? Well, we know that back to
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, and we ad just
Speaker 1: for the money supply, it's not really up. We can
Speaker 1: look at it another way. So here we have the
Speaker 1: black line. I'm sorry. The gold line is the global equity.
Speaker 1: You're basically the money monetary based expansion. The black line
Speaker 1: is the S and P five hundred, and you can
Speaker 1: see that they move in almost perfect lockstep. And so
Speaker 1: that means the SMPO five hundred is just going up
Speaker 1: with the rate of monetary expansion, which is okay, you're
Speaker 1: keeping your head above water. You're not losing money, but
Speaker 1: you're not getting ahead. But we can look at this
Speaker 1: chart right here, and this is now gold and bitcoin,
Speaker 1: and we can see that for every time the monetary
Speaker 1: base goes up by ten percent, gold goes up by
Speaker 1: fourteen percent, and bitcoin goes up by ninety percent, it's
Speaker 1: is sense to be ratio eight point nine. Okay, So
Speaker 1: these are the types of assets that we want to buy,
Speaker 1: the ones that are more sensitive to liquidity. Now bitcoin
Speaker 1: is moving up nine times for every one time that
Speaker 1: the liquidity moves up. But then there's bitcoin derivatives that
Speaker 1: are moving up even faster. It used to be cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: but now cryptocurrencies are dead, and now there's new bitcoin
Speaker 1: derivatives that are going up two three, four hundred percent
Speaker 1: more than bitcoin itself. So watch out for those. I
Speaker 1: did a whole video on that. I'm gonna link those
Speaker 1: down below, so I'm not gonna go into that right now.
Speaker 1: And if you'd like to come hang out with me
Speaker 1: next week live, I'll break this down for you, and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna show you the top five positions that I'm
Speaker 1: paying attention to and putting on my by list right now,
Speaker 1: and you might want to as well. I'm gonna give
Speaker 1: those two so coming out, it's all for free. I'll
Speaker 1: show you the charts to give the names, and you
Speaker 1: can ask me all the questions you want. And if not,
Speaker 1: no worries, check out the other videos that help you
Speaker 1: understand this. And I'm gonna put this one investing black Hole.
Speaker 1: Watch this video right here now. If you like this video,
Speaker 1: give me thumbs up. If you don't, you can give
Speaker 1: me a thumbs down, that's okay, but at least tell
Speaker 1: me why in the comments down below so I can
Speaker 1: make better videos for you. All right, subscribe if you're
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Speaker 1: I'm out