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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 1: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

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Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We begin our conversation here with the man running this election.

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Speaker 2: David Scanlon is with us, the Secretary of State of

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire, joining us live from the Capitol in Conquered

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Speaker 2: and mister Secretary, I appreciate your coming along on this

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Speaker 2: eve of the primary. I'd love to hear about what

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Speaker 2: you think is going to transpire here, and I'd love

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Speaker 2: to ask you about turnout. To start, I'm here in

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Speaker 2: Manchester where it kind of looks like any other Monday.

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Speaker 2: We're used to the big primary carnival, and it's been

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Speaker 2: a bit quiet this time, this sense of inevitability. What

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Speaker 2: will that look like when it comes to turnout.

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Speaker 3: Well, I fully expect that there's going to be a

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Speaker 3: good turnout tomorrow, certainly on the Republican side. President Trump

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Speaker 3: has a good, solid base that turns out for him,

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Speaker 3: and the undeclared voters in New Hampshire seem to be

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Speaker 3: motivated to turn out for the Republican primary on the

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Speaker 3: Democratic side, Usually when there is an incumbent president running

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Speaker 3: for a second term, the turnout is lower than normal.

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Speaker 3: The unusual case this election is that President Biden's name

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Speaker 3: was not on the ballot because he declined to file

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Speaker 3: here based on the issues we've been having with the

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Speaker 3: Democratic National Committee.

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Speaker 2: Well, in terms of the contested primary, it's Republicans, and

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Speaker 2: I bring our listeners and viewers back to the record

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Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen, two hundred and eighty five thousand, of course,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump won that primary. Mister secretary, what do you

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Speaker 2: think it'll look like this time?

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Speaker 3: Well, I made a prediction of three hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: two thousand voters turning out. Is that would be a

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Speaker 3: record number of Republicans turning out for presidential primary. And

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Speaker 3: the way I came up with that number was looking

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Speaker 3: back at similar primaries and engaging turnout. This was a

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Speaker 3: difficult one to predict because for the first time ever,

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Speaker 3: we have two individuals that have served as president of

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Speaker 3: the United States that are running in their respective primaries.

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Speaker 3: And then you know, we have to look at how

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Speaker 3: motivated the undeclared voters seem to be in the state

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Speaker 3: to turn out and vote for a candidate in both parties.

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Speaker 3: This time the actions on the Republican side.

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Speaker 2: I'm compelled by the very practical nature of your work here,

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Speaker 2: dealing with paper ballots driving them to central locations. There's

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Speaker 2: obviously a great conversation here about election integrity, election security.

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Speaker 2: How confident are you that this will be a clean

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Speaker 2: process tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: This will absolutely be a clean process, There's no question

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Speaker 3: in my mind. And what happens in a polling place

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Speaker 3: in New Hampshire is that the moderator will open the

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Speaker 3: polls at the appropriate time, the voters will cast their ballots.

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Speaker 3: When the polls close, the moderator will come up with

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Speaker 3: the final results at that polling place. Those results will

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Speaker 3: be posted at the polling place and then the return

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Speaker 3: of votes will be filled out by the moderator that

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Speaker 3: reflects those results. They will come to my office very

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Speaker 3: early the following morning and we will add them up

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Speaker 3: to certify the final results. In New Hampshire, the polling

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Speaker 3: places are actually run at the local level by locally

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Speaker 3: elected officials of moderator or clerk supervisors of the checklist selectmen.

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Speaker 3: They're all elected by their neighbors and friends and members

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Speaker 3: of the community, and they get those jobs because of

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Speaker 3: their integrity and their ability to do a good job.

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Speaker 3: In a small state, we will have over six thousand

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Speaker 3: individuals working at the polls and they are all average

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Speaker 3: citizens of New Hampshire, but they're dedicated to doing a

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Speaker 3: good job and reporting accurate results.

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Speaker 2: So with that said, why does New Hampshire have multiple

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Speaker 2: closing times? How does that potentially complicate your job?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's not that complicated. In New Hampshire, the law

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Speaker 3: says the polling places have to be open from a

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Speaker 3: minimum of eleven in the morning till seven o'clock. Many

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Speaker 3: polling places have varying hours in the morning when they

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Speaker 3: start up, but at the end of the night, most

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Speaker 3: polling places close at seven o'clock and then there's a handful,

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Speaker 3: maybe a couple dozen, that stay open until eight o'clock.

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Speaker 3: So those are the two closing times. And I would

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Speaker 3: expect that even with the write in effort taking place

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Speaker 3: on the Democratic ballot for Present and Biden, that we

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Speaker 3: will have results by the end of the night.

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Speaker 2: By the end of the night, I just wonder after

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Speaker 2: what happened in Iowa, how worried you might be for

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Speaker 2: the Associated Press to make a call at seven when

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Speaker 2: you still have people in line, potentially until eight o'clock.

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Speaker 2: They called the caucuses half an hour into the process.

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Speaker 2: Have you been in touch with the Associated Press? Will

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Speaker 2: they wait until all polls are closed?

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Speaker 3: I have not been in touch with the Associated Press.

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Speaker 3: I would expect, as in prior elections, that results were declared.

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Speaker 3: Outcomes of the election won't be made until after eight

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Speaker 3: o'clock when all of the polls close.

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Speaker 2: Well, it sounds like you're looking for an impressive turnout

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Speaker 2: despite what seems to be a relatively subdued primary. Mister secretary,

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Speaker 2: give us a bit of a seminar before you leave.

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Speaker 2: In geography, where should we be watching tomorrow night in

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Speaker 2: the communities and counties that will side the outcome of

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Speaker 2: this election? Is it those along the mass border where

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Speaker 2: you have a concentration of conservative Republican voters or will

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Speaker 2: we learn more as we go north through the evening.

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Speaker 3: New Hampshire has some interesting pockets of a voter turnout,

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Speaker 3: and I think you're correct that there are towns along

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Speaker 3: the southern border with Massachusetts that are conservative and will

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Speaker 3: vote heavily Republican. And then you move up into some

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Speaker 3: of the cities, whether it's Nashaua or Manchester over in

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Speaker 3: the Sea coast, Portsmouth, or the town of Hanover where

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Speaker 3: Dartmouth colleges, you would expect to see higher democratic turnout there.

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Speaker 3: I think yeah. I mean it's hard to say which

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Speaker 3: towns are going to be Bellweather towns in this election

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Speaker 3: because it is very different.

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Speaker 2: Appreciate your joining us on the eve of the primary.

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Speaker 2: Good luck tomorrow, mister secretary. It's great to have you

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Speaker 2: with us here on Bloomberg. David Scanlon live from the

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Speaker 2: Capitol and conquered as we get things started here on

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Speaker 2: the fastest show in politics. This is Ballants of Power

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Speaker 2: Radio on the satellite, on the old fashioned radio and

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Speaker 2: here on YouTube. I'm Joe Matthew in Manchester, New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us as we introduce two familiar

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Speaker 2: voices and faces here. Also with us here in the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg bureau that we've set up on Elm Street in Manchester.

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Speaker 2: Laura Davison is with us Bloomberg Politics correspondent, along with

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Speaker 2: Greg recording. It's great to see both of you here. Gregory,

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Speaker 2: thanks for joining at the table. Laura. Based on what

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Speaker 2: we just heard a bit ambitious maybe on the turnout front.

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Speaker 2: How's that going to look tomorrow based on your view?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a kind of the real question and

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Speaker 4: something that both campaigns are looking at closely, Hayley's camp

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Speaker 4: in particular. Once a strong turnout, especially those undeclared, which

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Speaker 4: I think will be sort of the piece that makes

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Speaker 4: the difference for them. Hampshire is a little bit weird

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Speaker 4: in that you can sort of be undeclared. It's not

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Speaker 4: necessarily independent, but you can go in and choose a

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Speaker 4: ballot on primary day. So this is a thing that

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Speaker 4: New hamp Sure, New Hampshire herites take very seriously and

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Speaker 4: you know, go to a bunch of events, meet these

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Speaker 4: candidates and end up deciding you know, potentially, you know,

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Speaker 4: in the final week up to the primary.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you've both been on the ground for a few

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Speaker 2: days here, Gregory, what's your thought on a high turnout tomorrow?

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Speaker 2: Does that potentially advantage Nikki Haley?

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Speaker 5: I think the conventional wisdom and it does. And it's

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Speaker 5: precisely because of those undeclared independent voters that are more

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Speaker 5: traditional Republicans. They are there are a lot of sort

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Speaker 5: of white collar professional suburbs in the lower tier of

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Speaker 5: the state. They're they're really they're in New Hampshire, but

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Speaker 5: you could really consider them suburbs of Boston's right, and

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Speaker 5: they're within sort of long commuting distance, and those are

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Speaker 5: are suburbs that Nikki Haley is gonna need a high

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Speaker 5: turnout from if she's gonna pull any kind of an

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Speaker 5: upset here.

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Speaker 2: That's it's interesting when you consider it's sort of counterintuitive.

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Speaker 2: People think of suburbs as being more moderate, more liberal,

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Speaker 2: But these are folks who work in Boston and I

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Speaker 2: have such an allergy to Massachusetts policy and taxes that

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Speaker 2: they move just over the border here into New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: So while they may be functioning all day long in Massachusetts,

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Speaker 2: they're going to decide likely who the next nominee is.

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Speaker 2: That's advantage Nikki Haley.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, as Gregory said, this is really your

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Speaker 4: traditional kind of country club type Republican. They're focused more

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Speaker 4: on economic issues, low taxes, low regulation, but maybe a

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Speaker 4: little bit more progressive on social issues. They are close

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Speaker 4: to Massachusetts, but have either you know, self selected to

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Speaker 4: live across the New Hampshire line, where taxes are lower

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Speaker 4: and regulations are a little bit more free.

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Speaker 6: You know, this is kind of where we see.

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Speaker 4: The shifting Republican Party of you know, areas that used

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Speaker 4: to be very strong for Republicans now you know, Nicki

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Speaker 4: Haley still appealing, Donald Trump not so much, and areas

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Speaker 4: like this that Biden won in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: We've got a lot of new polling out today, pick

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Speaker 2: your poll. We could talk about it, but they all

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Speaker 2: came before Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race. Gregory.

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Speaker 2: The conventional wisdom there is those votes go to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Those people weren't about to vote for Nicki Haley, and

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Speaker 2: the timing here might be very difficult for her.

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Speaker 5: Well, keep in mind, it's only six or seven percent

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Speaker 5: of the electorate that rond De Santas is pulling at,

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Speaker 5: and so they there's three options for those voters left right.

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Speaker 5: They can vote for Donald Trump, they can vote for

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Speaker 5: Nicki Haley, or they can stay home. Or keep in mind, obviously,

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Speaker 5: Ronda Santis, his name is still going to be on

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Speaker 5: the ballot. I would expect, you know, maybe even one

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Speaker 5: or two percent might stick with him at to send

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Speaker 5: a message even though he's not on the ballot. He

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Speaker 5: was at the stage where he wasn't going to get

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Speaker 5: any delegates anyway. The delegates in New Hampshire are allocated proportionally,

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Speaker 5: but you have to get at least ten percent of

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Speaker 5: the vote to get any delegates, So those votes probably

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Speaker 5: go mostly to Trump. That's the conventional wisdom that the

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Speaker 5: issues are more aligned there. Dessanta said all along had

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Speaker 5: been pitching himself as a Trump like Republican, a Maggi

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Speaker 5: Republican but with a little less baggage. But some of

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Speaker 5: them may also go to Nicky Haley, just because if

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Speaker 5: you're gonna be for Trump, you've probably have been for

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Speaker 5: Trump all along, and maybe you're looking for a non

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Speaker 5: Trump alternative. But it's certainly not enough votes to make

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Speaker 5: up the distance between Haley and Trump at this point.

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Speaker 2: Well, here a bit later on from Governor Chris Snuna,

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Speaker 2: who we spoke with before the broadcast. Laura, he's talking

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Speaker 2: about a strong second, not actually winning this as I

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Speaker 2: feel like we were hearing a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: He says that they never made that promise, and I

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Speaker 2: guess we can we can assume that that's the case

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Speaker 2: for now. But even if she wins New Hampshire, what's

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Speaker 2: the path when you see the deficit that she's got

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Speaker 2: in her home state of South Carolina.

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Speaker 6: It's a really tough path.

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Speaker 4: And what you hear Snow saying about a strong second

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Speaker 4: and this is all expectation setting right now, and you

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Speaker 4: know there's still privately, you know, can be hoping for

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Speaker 4: that first place win.

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Speaker 6: But you know, if she comes.

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Speaker 4: In, you know, a close second, can still you know,

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Speaker 4: can publicly count that as a quote win.

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Speaker 6: But it's tricky.

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Speaker 4: Part of the theory of her case is that it's

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Speaker 4: a month until South Carolina and that if she's able

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Speaker 4: to come out of this with some momentum, she can

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Speaker 4: use the Americans for prosperity money that a coke back money,

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Speaker 4: to really build an operation in South Carolina to turn

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Speaker 4: out the voters that she needs. It's a still a

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Speaker 4: really difficult case to make when you just look at

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Speaker 4: the deficit she has with Trump and just the electorate there.

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Speaker 4: It's a lot more similar to Iowa, a lot more evangelical,

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Speaker 4: and she doesn't have quite the same advantage that she

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Speaker 4: does in New Hampshire, just.

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Speaker 2: Saying something when that's your home state. But so it

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Speaker 2: comes down to a case of momentum. That's the argument right, Gregory,

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Speaker 2: and you've been in touch with the Haley campaign. They

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Speaker 2: say that these numbers will change if she outperforms in

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire. But that's feeling like a wing and a

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Speaker 2: prayer at this point, isn't it.

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Speaker 5: What has been remarkable to me about this entire campaign

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Speaker 5: cycle is just how stable the race has been from

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Speaker 5: the beginning. Trump's lead has seemed to be impenetrable even

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Speaker 5: as other candidates have surged, and it's really Haley who

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Speaker 5: has really had the momentum. As you say, Trump's numbers

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Speaker 5: haven't budgement. They've always been low forties or high forties

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Speaker 5: to low fifties in terms of the poll numbers, And

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Speaker 5: that fifty percent line is a magic line. Even if

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Speaker 5: you were to consolidate all the anti Trump support in

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Speaker 5: the Republican Party, that means you still wouldn't get the

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Speaker 5: numbers that you need to dislodge him from that purge.

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Speaker 5: But yes, you're right. The Cayley case is that obviously

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Speaker 5: Trump is better known, he's been president before. As voters

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Speaker 5: get to know her in each of these early primary states,

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Speaker 5: that will build upon each other, and she will more

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Speaker 5: than likely do better in New Hampshire. Than she in Iowa.

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Speaker 5: But then she's got to take the next step in

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Speaker 5: South Carolina and do even better. And it's a tall

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Speaker 5: called Hilda Kon.

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Speaker 2: Had a lot to learn the next twenty four to

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Speaker 2: forty eight hours. I'm glad you're with us. Gregory Cody,

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Speaker 2: Laura Davison, Thank you. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 1: and then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

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Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Where there's Smoke, There's Fire, The headline in the Union Leader,

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Speaker 2: as this great old newspaper endorses Nicky Haley. On the

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Speaker 2: Sunday before the primary, We're going to spend some time

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Speaker 2: with the publisher of The Union Leader. As I read

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Speaker 2: in the op ed, where there's smoke, there's fire, Nicki

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Speaker 2: Haley is our choice for the twenty four first in

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Speaker 2: the Nation primary, referring to Nicki Haley as an accountant

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Speaker 2: by career and training, a mother, a military spouse, the

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Speaker 2: child of immigrants, and one with the experience as a

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Speaker 2: successful governor and diplomat. It's a pretty good story to

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Speaker 2: tell if you're running for president. Brenda McQuaid thinks, so

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Speaker 2: he wrote it. The New Hampshire Union Leader president publisher

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Speaker 2: is with us here at the desk in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having us in the Granite State. It's nice

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Speaker 2: to see you.

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Speaker 7: Thanks for being here.

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Speaker 2: By all means for our viewers on YouTube. We've got

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Speaker 2: the Union Leader here because we love newspapers at balance

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Speaker 2: of power. When this dropped on Sunday morning, this has

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Speaker 2: always been a big moment in the New Hampshire primary.

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Speaker 2: People were already moving on. When I look at the

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Speaker 2: last line of this op ed that you wrote, I'm

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Speaker 2: compelled New Hampshire can prove you right that the independent

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Speaker 2: minded voters of the Granite State will not be told

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Speaker 2: the election is a done deal. I've been hearing this

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Speaker 2: is over since I got here.

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Speaker 7: We've been hearing that it's over for about a year

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Speaker 7: and a half. That it was a set thing. It

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Speaker 7: was going to be Trump Biden again. Yeah, that no

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Speaker 7: one wanted it, but that's what was going to happen,

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Speaker 7: and it seems like that may come to pass. Whatever

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Speaker 7: people do. But our voters haven't had their say yet,

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Speaker 7: and we think they deserve to.

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Speaker 2: But fifty thousand people in Iowa essentially have brought us

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Speaker 2: to this point.

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Speaker 7: Possibly, But you know, Iowa is a state of things

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Speaker 7: over three million people, and you're talking a tiny percentage

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Speaker 7: of the four million people.

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Speaker 2: Well that's right. Yeah, So the Secretary of State earlier

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Speaker 2: this hour told us that we could see record turnout tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Is that possible in a when there's a sense of

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Speaker 2: inevitability like this.

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Speaker 7: It's certainly possible. We're encouraging people. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 7: care if you like Trump, you want to write in Biden,

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Speaker 7: you want to write in peace or ceasefire. We hope

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Speaker 7: that people get out and vote and exercise. They're right,

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Speaker 7: it's going to be a nice day tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully that you got weather on your side.

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Speaker 7: Yeahowa, Yeah, but I don't know. So many candidates having

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Speaker 7: dropped out before New Hampshire means that there's a potential

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Speaker 7: that some of those folks who were excited about candidates

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Speaker 7: might not turn out.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about your conversations with NICKI

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Speaker 2: Haley and what brought you to this point. But were

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Speaker 2: you disappointed that Ron de Santis bailed on the eve

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Speaker 2: of the primary. His staff, from what I hear, actually

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Speaker 2: thought he was here. They were manning events that never

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Speaker 2: took place yesterday, and he was in Florida the whole time.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we were talking with his campaign up until last

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Speaker 7: week about having him in to talk to you. He

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Speaker 7: never sat down with you, He never sat down with us. No. No,

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Speaker 7: he was running at Iowa heavy campaign, and I think

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Speaker 7: that seems to be what showed him that it wasn't

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Speaker 7: in the cards for him.

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Speaker 2: It seems like such an easy box to check. You

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Speaker 2: go to the union leaders, sit down for an ed board.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I mean we've we've never actually had an

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Speaker 7: ed board. Common misconception. It's always been just sort of

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Speaker 7: a group of us, but not a formal ed board,

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Speaker 7: which is nice. We just sit down and have a conversation,

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Speaker 7: but you have to show up and talk to the paper.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Nikki Haley did, she did. What was that meeting?

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Speaker 8: Like?

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Speaker 1: It was?

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Speaker 7: It was very nice, you say, hey.

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Speaker 2: We got one here, George. Was there a deliberation that follow.

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Speaker 7: Oh, definitely a deliberation. Yeah, Because at that time there

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Speaker 7: were more candidates in the race. We still had several

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Speaker 7: other candidates who have since dropped out, and we were,

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Speaker 7: you know, hoping to talk to more of them, but

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Speaker 7: it was actually, uh, I think we had Chris Christy

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Speaker 7: scheduled to come in Thursday morning and he dropped out

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Speaker 7: Wednesday night.

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Speaker 9: How about that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so even Chris Christy didn't make it to the newsroom.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and we endorsed him in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and he was making a big New Hampshire player.

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Speaker 2: In fact, that might be the first stop he made. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, I'm guessing not this time, but he did

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Speaker 2: sit down with you in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 7: He did sit down with us in twenty sixteen, and

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Speaker 7: he was the Donald Trump that we've all come to

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Speaker 7: know over these past several years. You know, a lot

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Speaker 7: of energy, a lot of a lot of bravado. That's

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Speaker 7: who Donald Trump has always been. Yeah, but he wasn't

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Speaker 7: the choice for us, and we didn't think he was

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Speaker 7: the right choice for New Hampshire or the country.

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Speaker 2: So then why Nicki Haley?

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Speaker 7: Why Nicki Haley? Nicki Haley is the best candidate on

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Speaker 7: paper and the best candidate in person that we've met

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Speaker 7: in this cycle. She's got a ton of experience. She's

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Speaker 7: a solid communicator, and she's most importantly to me, she's

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Speaker 7: a candidate of nuance, which you're featured in some of

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Speaker 7: the TV commercials from saw mister Trump that don't like nuance, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 7: But I think that's important for a leader to have

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Speaker 7: that nuance and to understand that everything's not black and white.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting you mentioned that ad. They lifted part of

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Speaker 2: our interview that was specific about raising the Social Security

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Speaker 2: age or reforming right the benefit. Somehow she's the only

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Speaker 2: candidate who went there. Was that part of your conversation.

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Speaker 2: Did you have a sense that she had a plan

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Speaker 2: to deal with entitlements?

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Speaker 9: Oh?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, She's going to a couple of places. Entitlements are

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Speaker 7: definitely one of them, because that's part of one of

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Speaker 7: the biggest issues facing this country, which is the debt

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Speaker 7: and the deficit. But she's going there with that. She's

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Speaker 7: going there with term limits, which is, you know, not

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Speaker 7: a very popular thing among the folks in Congress that

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Speaker 7: are all turning out to support various candidates. She goes

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Speaker 7: there because you know, she understands that these things are important.

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Speaker 2: She thinks can it's of a certain age should have

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Speaker 2: a cognitive test, do you.

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Speaker 7: I think maybe candidates of all age should have a

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Speaker 7: cottony of the test. But yeah, I think that there's

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Speaker 7: a I think it's a it's a good punchline for her,

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Speaker 7: but I think it is a valid point that she

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Speaker 7: is a candidate that was born in the Vietnam era

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Speaker 7: and not the World War II era.

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Speaker 2: It's a line from mirror endorsement. We cannot talk about

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Speaker 2: Nicki Haley without addressing the elephant in the room, you say,

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Speaker 2: and the rather old donkey hiding in the White House.

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Speaker 2: I think I know who you're referring to, Nicki Haley.

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Speaker 2: You right, is an opportunity to vote for a candidate

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Speaker 2: rather than against those two. It's interesting. Were the other

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Speaker 2: candidates all a protest vote?

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Speaker 10: No?

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Speaker 7: No, I think I think it's just that Nicki Haley

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Speaker 7: is one that you can definitely support. Chris Christy built

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Speaker 7: a lot of his campaign on anti Trump, which.

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Speaker 2: Vote against Trump.

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Speaker 7: Some of the folks loved him for yeah, and you know,

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Speaker 7: I don't disagree with most of the things that he

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Speaker 7: was saying about Trump. But Nikki Haley is running her

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Speaker 7: own campaign. It's not an anti Trump campaign. And yes,

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Speaker 7: it was Joe Biden. We were talking about who has

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Speaker 7: moved from a basement campaign to a rose garden campaign,

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Speaker 7: skipping New Hampshire entirely, which is just outrageous.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you went there. I talked to Annie

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Speaker 2: Custer at this table the other day, and she's driving

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Speaker 2: this right in campaign for the president of the United States.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that's ever happened before that the

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Speaker 2: president has to get it right in like this. Okay, Well,

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Speaker 2: here we are, and I wonder how risky it is

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Speaker 2: for him knowing that Dean Phillips is out there beating

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Speaker 2: the drum every day. Could we be in a world

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Speaker 2: where Joe Biden gets less than fifty percent.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, or loses to a Dean Phillips that's actually here

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Speaker 7: in the state and campaigning. Yeah, it's possible. They're trying

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Speaker 7: to save him from the embarrassment. Our editorial today point

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Speaker 7: out that he deserves to be embarrassed. He deserves to

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Speaker 7: be embarrassed for what he's done to democracy in killing

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Speaker 7: the New Hampshire primary on the Democratic side, but also

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Speaker 7: the Iowa caucus. I don't know if you've ever experienced

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Speaker 7: the Democratic Iowa caucus, but it was a thing of

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Speaker 7: beauty to watch these neighbors go one on one and

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Speaker 7: convince each other when their candidate didn't have enough support to.

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Speaker 2: Join there crossing the gymnasium.

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Speaker 7: No, no, it's it's a it's a you know, remote

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Speaker 7: sort of ballot fill in and we'll we'll know later

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Speaker 7: sometime and no one will care.

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Speaker 2: Well, so this is interesting. You say that he's doing

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Speaker 2: damage to democracy. He says that he's turning his attention

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Speaker 2: to a more diverse field, that New Hampshire doesn't represent

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Speaker 2: the nation in its makeup and it's demographics. How do

437
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 2: you answer that?

438
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 7: So I was discussing this with someone over the weekend.

439
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 7: You know, if you look at New Hampshire, we're not

440
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 7: a hugely racially diversed They.

441
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 2: Say it's an old white state, let's say it out loud.

442
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 7: But we are incredibly diverse in terms of politics, in

443
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 7: terms of thought, in terms of demographics of people, income

444
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 7: levels all over the place, education levels all over the place.

445
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 7: And the thing that really helps in the primary is

446
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 7: that we allow our undeclared voters to vote for either party.

447
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 2: They can choose either ballot and that does that result

448
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 2: in a surprise?

449
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 7: I think it might those people are really hard to

450
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 7: pin down. And I was talking to someone about the polls.

451
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 7: You know, Oh, the polls, the polls. Yeah, New Hampshire

452
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 7: people love to mess with polsters.

453
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 2: It's sport.

454
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 1: Yeah.

455
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 2: I'm out of time, but I wonder your thoughts on

456
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: an early call tomorrow. Is AP going to step in

457
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 2: before people are done voting at eight o'clock?

458
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 7: I don't know. I hope not. I know that that

459
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 7: happened in Iowa, and I think that it's a disservice

460
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 7: whenever any one does that. It's funny.

461
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: You know.

462
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 7: They may call it for Donald Trump, who was a

463
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 7: guest when that happened in twenty twenty against him, So

464
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 7: it'll be interesting to see what happens this time.

465
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you came by to see us.

466
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 7: Well.

467
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 2: I feel like it's important to be in New Hampshire

468
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 2: and as long as this contest is going on, we'll

469
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: be here for It's great to meet you in person.

470
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 7: I'm glad you guys are here because many of your

471
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 7: colleagues aren't.

472
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, Well Bloomberg is on the ground and it's

473
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: great to have Brenda McQuaid with us. From the Union Leader,

474
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: thanks for bringing the paper and it's good to see you.

475
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

476
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

477
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: and then Proud with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

478
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

479
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

480
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 2: From back to Manchester here in New Hampshire where we're

481
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,479
Speaker 2: waiting for actual voting to take place. I'm Joe Matthew.

482
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 2: This is Balance of Power on the radio and on TV.

483
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: We thank you for joining us, Kaylee, it's great moment.

484
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: We're going to do this every day from now on

485
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 2: through the cycle, not just hearing Manchester, New Hampshire, but

486
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: also Washington, DC.

487
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 6: And how lucky we are to have two hours of

488
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 6: Balance of Power on both Bloomberg television and radio because

489
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 6: it is a very important cycle. Even if it's one

490
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 6: Joe that frankly, we might not have seen one like it,

491
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 6: that's for sure. Considering we are now in the second

492
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 6: contest state, the first in the nation primary, and we

493
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 6: are having a very realistic conversation as to whether or

494
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 6: not the primary race actually ends.

495
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 2: Yes, come to Mark correct. The departure of Ron De

496
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: Santis late yesterday, which caught even his own staff by surprise,

497
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: has many folks wondering if this is already over, whether

498
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley will make it to her home state of

499
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: South Carolina, where currently Donald Trump holds a commanding lead.

500
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 6: And all of that to say that is with the

501
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 6: support of perhaps the most powerful surrogate she could have

502
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 6: in the state of New Hampshire, the Governor Christan Nunu,

503
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 6: who isn't just someone who has endorsed her, but has

504
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 6: been next to her on almost every single campaign stop

505
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 6: she has made in recent days, has talked to people

506
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 6: like us, really tried to be her surrogate. And he's

507
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 6: very popular here in New Hampshire, and it may not

508
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 6: prove to be enough.

509
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: Not a fan of Donald Trump, he was going to

510
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 2: work with the candidate he thought could defeat Trump here

511
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: the most sought after endorsement in New Hampshire, and we

512
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 2: sat down with him for an important conversation here, Kaylee.

513
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 2: A pretty remarkable moment to hear from the governor who's

514
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: looking at the very same polls that we are, who

515
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 2: knows when we'll climb this will be for his candidate.

516
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 2: We sat down here at the table to spend time

517
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: now with Governor Christen n Inu. Let's listen, mine, Iowa

518
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: picks corn, new Hampshire picks President.

519
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 9: I know someone who heard that before you do.

520
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: With that said, will New Hampshire pick the next president

521
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 2: of the United States?

522
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 9: Oh? I hope, So, I hope.

523
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 3: So.

524
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 9: Look, obviously I'm one hundred and ten percent behind Nikki.

525
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,400
Speaker 9: She's the one that's earning it on the ground. She's

526
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 9: the one with all the momentum. You know, Trump has

527
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 9: his numbers, he's effectively the incumbent, but his numbers have

528
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 9: been really stagnant. Nicki's the one that's been surging. She

529
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 9: had a very good showing in Iowa right now, the

530
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 9: I think she just has to show that she's building

531
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,719
Speaker 9: on that here. If she can win, that be amazing, Right.

532
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 9: It doesn't have to happen carry that kind of momentum

533
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 9: into South Carolina into her home state with three or

534
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 9: four weeks or something like that before the South Carolina

535
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 9: primary even happens, and she obviously has a huge record

536
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 9: of success running there. So no, I'm very hopeful that

537
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 9: this is just this momentum is going to continue to

538
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 9: build as we get into Super Tuesday.

539
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 6: But She's currently farther behind the former president in South

540
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 6: Carolina than she is here in New Hampshire. So if

541
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 6: she can't win here, how could she win there?

542
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 9: Well, it was campaigned in South Carolina yet, right, so

543
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 9: that should be expected. He's the incumbent. She hasn't been

544
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 9: there and has it really put a campaign on the

545
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 9: ground there. I mean a little bit here and there.

546
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,479
Speaker 9: But it's Trump versus Haley. It is, so no one,

547
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 9: no one should be surprised because the conversation isn't happening

548
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 9: on the ground there. As the conversation happened in Iowa,

549
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 9: her number sorts, as the conversations happening in New Hampshire,

550
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 9: her numbers sore. And as the conversation is going to

551
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 9: happen in South Carolina, the sky's the limit for the

552
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 9: former governor.

553
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: So winning New Hampshire is not necessarily required to.

554
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 9: No, definitely, were we saying back in November December that

555
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,479
Speaker 9: New Hampshire was an absolute win. Had to be an

556
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 9: absolute win for someone other than Trump. No, No one's

557
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,640
Speaker 9: been ever been so that. I mean recently. Trump's trying

558
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 9: to build that narrative effectively, but because he just wants

559
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 9: to knock everyone out. But Nicki is the one that

560
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 9: has knocked all these other candidates out of the race.

561
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: Well, you have said though a strong second could be

562
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: in the offing. What does that look like to find

563
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 2: a strong second?

564
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,719
Speaker 9: You know, I think again, just showing a I think

565
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 9: stronger performance than was in Iowa. That's the most important piece, right,

566
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 9: and having less candidates in the race and defining it

567
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 9: as a one on one race. But over the last

568
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 9: few days, again with the moment and with the fact

569
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 9: that she's doing the grassroots campaigning, she's going all across

570
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 9: the stage, She's engaging with voters every which way. Trump

571
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 9: flies in, does a rally they're not even very big

572
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 9: rallies actually, and then flies out of here. So he's

573
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 9: kind of taking advantage of his role as the standard bearer,

574
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 9: if you will, of the party for the last seven years.

575
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 9: But she's the one that's earning it. And again her

576
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 9: numbers are soaring and his are stagnant.

577
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 6: Well, but his numbers are roughly in the ballpark of

578
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 6: about half of voters. He had more than half in Iowa,

579
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 6: and he was pulling around half of voters in New Hampshire,

580
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 6: the same ones that voted you into office on multiple occasions.

581
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 6: If it's the Conservatives in Iowa and moderates and independence

582
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 6: in New Hampshire and she can't get enough of either,

583
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,239
Speaker 6: what is the demographic that is supposed to elect her

584
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 6: as president of the United States.

585
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 9: Well, again, let's let's start here. I magine if you're

586
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 9: the former president and your own party, you can barely

587
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 9: get fifty percent of the vote. That's why Trump's in trouble, right.

588
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 9: So now that you have somebody new on the scene,

589
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 9: kind of building that kind of momentum is huge. And

590
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 9: the key is that it's a one on one race.

591
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 9: So if Trump can barely hold fifty percent or keep

592
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 9: them under fifty percent in a one on one race, well,

593
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 9: the mass says that there's fifty one percent to Nikki Haley,

594
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 9: and that's what you need to win a state. Now.

595
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 9: I don't think any of these early states are must

596
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 9: wins for Hailey. I don't think that's ever been the case.

597
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 9: They're possible, but they're not must wins. I think when

598
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 9: you get to Super Tuesday, okay, now you really have

599
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 9: to start winning states, obviously, but as long as she

600
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,239
Speaker 9: keeps building on that momentum, I think there's a lot

601
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 9: of opportunity. She has money, she has resources, she has

602
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 9: you know, knows how to win in New Hampshire, knows

603
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 9: how to win in South Carolina. So all the wind

604
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 9: is at her back.

605
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 2: Any Custer set in this chair a short time go

606
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 2: and said, we want you to write in Joe Biden.

607
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 2: There's a write in campaign for the President of the

608
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: Created States, which is remarkable. But she said, if not

609
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 2: vote for Nicky, just don't vote for Trump. When you

610
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 2: have a Democrat talking like this and Donald Trump across

611
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 2: the streets saying Democrats are infiltrating the process here to

612
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 2: vote for.

613
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 9: Democrats cannot vote Democrats cannot they vote, Well, you say,

614
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 9: of course I had other stations. I mean, you guys

615
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 9: get it, But I had other stations being like talking

616
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 9: about democrats vote. Democrats are not voting in the Republican shrimery.

617
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: But this idea that Democrat leaning independents are going to

618
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: make a difference here in New Hampshire, and there aren't

619
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 2: enough New Hampshires to keep doing that across the country.

620
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 9: Well, independents have always been able to vote in as

621
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 9: vote Democrat and Republican, and they're not independence in New Hampshire.

622
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 9: The're undeclared, so you could have hard Trump supporters and

623
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 9: hard Bernie Sanders socialists within the undeclared spectrum. This year,

624
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 9: they're more likely to play on the Republican side because

625
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 9: there's no nobody cares about the Democrats side. So that's all.

626
00:30:58,800 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 9: So you're just going to see a lot more fun

627
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 9: explay there. And they tend to want change, that's it.

628
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 9: They want the next new thing, they want the like

629
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 9: there's the Republicans that are within that independent group really

630
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 9: are Republicans, right, they understand Trump doesn't carry Republican values.

631
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 9: Was he fiscally conservative? No, he had tax cuts that

632
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 9: supposedly helped the economy, but then vote seven trillion dollars

633
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,959
Speaker 9: to do it. That's like saying to your family, Hey,

634
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 9: look at this wonderful new house we're living in, and

635
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 9: you just paid for it on a credit card. Right,

636
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 9: it's a falsehood. He doesn't believe in limited government, he

637
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 9: believes in this kind of dictatorship. He doesn't believe in

638
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 9: local control. He believes in Washington. So those are not

639
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 9: Republican values. So I think a lot of the Republicans

640
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 9: within that undeclared and those Conservatives are very much coming

641
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 9: over to Nikky side.

642
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 6: Would it be fair Governor to say the Republican party

643
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 6: that Trump represents is not your Republican party, not the

644
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 6: Republican party of your father?

645
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 9: Put it, well, put it this way. I saw a

646
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 9: bumper stick or the other that says, I don't vote Republican,

647
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 9: I just vote Trump. He's his own entity. He doesn't

648
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 9: define the Republican party at all.

649
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 6: But you have said because he if he were to

650
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 6: be the Republican nominee, and because you are a Republican,

651
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 6: you would support Yeah, think most people.

652
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 9: That shouldn't surprise anybody.

653
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, even though he don't think he actually carries the

654
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 6: values of.

655
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 9: The Republican Well, look, Biden, that's how bad Joe Biden is.

656
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 9: I mean I always say that. I mean, this is

657
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 9: what what has happened with inflation and all of that.

658
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 9: The one thing I suppose that I'm hopeful again, I'm

659
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 9: hopeful it's Nikki. I think she can do it. Any

660
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 9: Republican would build a much better team than Joe Biden.

661
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 9: I mean the team that Joe Biden has put in there,

662
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 9: and with the rules and the regulations that are just

663
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 9: crushing families. They're just crushing local locals and state governments,

664
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 9: and nothing can be developed, nothing can be built, nothing

665
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 9: can move forward. So no, look, I'm excited about Nikki

666
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 9: Haley being the nominee. That's why we're here in New Hampshire.

667
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 9: This is where I don't want to say it can

668
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 9: it all turns around, because she's already made the turnaround, right,

669
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 9: It's already gone from thirteen candidates to a one on

670
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 9: one race that in itself is amazing. This is where

671
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 9: again she just keeps adding kind of gasoline to that

672
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 9: fire and keeps driving forward.

673
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 2: You talk about Trump team building. Of course, most of

674
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: Trump's team has come out against him following the administration,

675
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: many of them. Yeah, But so you know the quality

676
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 2: of a team might only be as strong as long

677
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 2: as you can keep it together. But I want to

678
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: hear the argument, though, you're prepared to vote for Donald

679
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: Trump if it's a Trump Biden election, you've made the polls.

680
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 9: You know most of America would. I mean, he beats bile,

681
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 9: but barely might.

682
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: Keep that from happening. Why is Nicki Hayley, Let's talk

683
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: about your candidate better for New Hampshire than Donald Trump?

684
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 9: So in the latest polls, Trump New Hampshire hasn't gone

685
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 9: Republican in the general election about twenty years. And then

686
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 9: the latest polls show that Trump gets crushed in New

687
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 9: Hampshire against Biden. Nicky wins. Right, Nikki allows the Republicans

688
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 9: in New Hampshire to win this state again in November,

689
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 9: and that would happen in a lot of states across

690
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 9: the country. So at the end of the day, you know,

691
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 9: we can disagree on a policy here or there, but

692
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 9: you got to win. You can't govern if you don't win.

693
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 9: And Nicki not just beats Biden here in New Hampshire,

694
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 9: but would beat him across the country.

695
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,959
Speaker 2: Interestingly, you didn't reach for a policy, you just want

696
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: to pick a winner as your point.

697
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 9: Well, because you know what Nicki does. She makes sure

698
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 9: that as I leave, we're going to get a Republican governor.

699
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 9: And we're in Manchester right now they should have a

700
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 9: Republican congressman. We haven't been able to win the seat,

701
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 9: even though it's more Republican leaning. So because of that

702
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 9: Trump brand, we've lost in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty

703
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 9: and twenty twenty two. I'm so tired of losing, and

704
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 9: I'm tired of losers, and I think we're just tired

705
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 9: of that brand that just drags the rest of the

706
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 9: Republican Party down. Right, what's the point of scraping out

707
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 9: a winning the presidency if you lose everything else, like

708
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 9: he has time and time and time again. So you know,

709
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,959
Speaker 9: I want Republicans to win across the board, NICKI allows us.

710
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 10: To do that.

711
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 6: So do you think ultimately the biggest differentiator for you

712
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 6: between the former president and governor Ambassador Haley is not

713
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 6: necessarily their policy differences, but their ability to execute on it.

714
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 9: You've hit it, so, Nicki, when you're a governor, you

715
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 9: don't get away with trying something and it doesn't happen

716
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 9: all and you just let it go. Healthcare reform didn't happen.

717
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 9: Securing the border and building the wall didn't happen, two

718
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 9: of his biggest promises, right, being physically responsible didn't happen,

719
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 9: you know, Decentralizing government, allowing states to have more control

720
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 9: didn't happen. So, NICKI, as a governor, you're always held accountable.

721
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 9: This is a twenty four to seven job for us.

722
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 9: She goes in with that mentality, and you know, she's

723
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 9: going to ma the Senate. She's going to demand accountability,

724
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 9: she's going to demand a balanced budget. Right, she's going

725
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 9: to demand that government at its core level just read

726
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 9: up to live up to its most basic expectations of

727
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 9: getting something done and moving the ball forward. And she

728
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 9: carries those conservative ideals to actually get it done. It's

729
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 9: pretty cool.

730
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: We're closing argument though, is that Donald Trump is a bully,

731
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,959
Speaker 2: he's too old, he's not cognitively well.

732
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 9: That starts, we could be here all day, We'll bring

733
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 9: the chaos.

734
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, but to think that you would vote for him

735
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: as the nominee, knowing that you'd be inviting all of

736
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: that back says a lot about work.

737
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 9: But remember, if you don't in a binary race, if

738
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 9: you don't vote for one, you're voting for the other.

739
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 9: And I ain't voting for Joe Biden. I don't think

740
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 9: anyone wants Joe Biden.

741
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 2: Joe Biden is that much worse than the chaos and

742
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: the bullying that you framed those is what you're saying.

743
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 9: Joe Biden, get Joe Biden has to be let off

744
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 9: a stage by his hand. God bless the guy. He's

745
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 9: not there. There's no management there's no sense of control,

746
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 9: there's no sense of any of this at all.

747
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 6: So you and you think it's about potentially the future

748
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 6: team that Trump administration, a second Trump administration could build.

749
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 6: Should Nicki Haley be part of that team? Do you

750
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:04,919
Speaker 6: think it would be likely?

751
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 9: Look, I'm just focused on Nicki Haley winning the primary

752
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 9: right now. I mean, really, what Nikki wants to do

753
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 9: in a future she could do anything. I mean, she's

754
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 9: that amazing in that qualifying. The focus right now is

755
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 9: showing America that Republicans are looking at an alternative. They

756
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 9: might not want an alternative out of Biden. That's going

757
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 9: to be a problem for Democrats. But on the Republican side,

758
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 9: we're actually giving a shot here. We're not just saying

759
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 9: it's a fait to complete for Donald Trump. Nikki surging,

760
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 9: a lot of folks are galvanizing behind her. We're gonna

761
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 9: have record turnout here. I mean, think about Iowa right

762
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 9: when people say, well, I guess I guess it's over,

763
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 9: because fifty six thousand people in Iowa voted for Trump.

764
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 9: That's like two percent of the population. Fifty six thousand

765
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 9: people are going to determine the pick of the Republican

766
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 9: nomination in America. I don't think so, no, no, no, no.

767
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 9: So you gotta let this thing play out. I know

768
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 9: the media just wants to call it. It's a good

769
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 9: talking point, but you gotta let this thing play out

770
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 9: and make sure that the voters, not the media, not me,

771
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 9: not Niki, but the voters. That's democracy. Let them go

772
00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 9: to the polls and decide what's gonna happen.

773
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: I wonder if the party he's trying to call this though,

774
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 2: that Tim Scott endorsement. I realize endorsements don't mean a

775
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: lot to a lot of people, but now timing was significant.

776
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: He could have waited for that.

777
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: Nobody cares about timso South Carolina, nobody cares about Tim Scott.

778
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 6: Nicki Haley doesn't care about Tim Scott. She pointed him

779
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 6: to the Senate.

780
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 9: That's right, and that's why the endorsement right. So Tim

781
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 9: Scott wouldn't be a senator without Nicki Eily. That's why

782
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 9: what he did was so disrespectful. Again, why because the

783
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 9: senator doesn't want to be held accountable. Nicky's gonna hold

784
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 9: government accountable. That's an amazing opportunity for America. Trump didn't

785
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 9: do any of that, right, So you know, I found it.

786
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 9: I found the whole thing. You know, pretty disrespectful, but

787
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 9: nobody really cares. He's a senator.

788
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 2: How about your future. You're happy you didn't run, and

789
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 2: by that I mean for president and Senate. You made

790
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: that pretty clear. Look at what's going on there now

791
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 2: you could be in the middle of that. What's next

792
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 2: for you?

793
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 11: Though?

794
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 9: I don't know one thing. Let me go back to

795
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 9: NICKI a little bit. One thing Nicky and I both

796
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 9: agree with.

797
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 2: No.

798
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 9: Really, it's public service, not a public career. Right. She

799
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 9: wants term limits and again we don't have turmlit's in

800
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 9: New Hampshire, but you self impose them. You gotta do

801
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 9: the right thing. So you serve your state, or you

802
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 9: serve your government, or you serve your community the best

803
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 9: you can. And then you get back to you getting.

804
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 2: Back in the private sector. You'll have an issues campaign

805
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: that you might follow.

806
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 9: No, no, no, I'm just looking forward to get back

807
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 9: into the private sector. And that's what everybody should do. Service.

808
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 9: Getting to get back to the private sector. You let

809
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,479
Speaker 9: new ideas and a new generation move forward.

810
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 6: But you're not taking twenty twenty eight fully off the

811
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 6: table for myself.

812
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:23,959
Speaker 9: No, I'm not running for anything in I have no plans. No, okay, yeah, sorry, sorry,

813
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 9: don't mean to let you. I'll still be on here

814
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 9: if you guys, maybe in a year, I'll send you

815
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 9: a resume.

816
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 2: That sure, we'll take it up with youme. You're you

817
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 2: think she's going to be the next president.

818
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 9: Oh that would be awesome. I mean it would be awesome.

819
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: And she can see too, of course.

820
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 9: I'm open to I'm open to everything. Look, I do

821
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 9: have a twenty four to seven job. I mean I

822
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 9: literally am governor as we're sitting here, and I will

823
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 9: be governed for the next year. But there's there's a

824
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 9: lot on the tape. I'm a business guy. I'm an

825
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 9: economics guy. You know, I love that kind of stuff.

826
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 9: I love helping businesses. I think businesses get way too

827
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 9: involved in politics and that sort of thing. And and

828
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 9: you know, I'm a big believer when you're selling a product,

829
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 9: focused on selling the product, don't get involved in the

830
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 9: political wocaus them and all that kind of garbage. So

831
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 9: we've helped a few companies here and there with that time.

832
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 6: Well, governor, we do Business and Economics center as well.

833
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 6: That's kind of our thing here at Bloomberg. And if

834
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 6: you actually look at the economic data, if you look

835
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 6: at how businesses are faring, you have the stock market

836
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 6: at a record high, you have inflation on a downward trajectory,

837
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 6: growth in the labor market still hanging in there. And

838
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 6: I know you don't think that the Biden administration has

839
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 6: been particularly successful, but is that not something that a

840
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 6: future president and President Haley would want to replicate?

841
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 9: The most important, the most important data points are families.

842
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 9: Let's look at national credit card debt. Let's look at

843
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 9: what everybody owes right, the spending that has gone on,

844
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 9: not just with the government, now with personal spending, and

845
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 9: the fact that inflation is crushing folks, and this whole

846
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 9: idea that the Fed is coming out and get a

847
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 9: lower rates. I'm telling you the piper has to be

848
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 9: paid at some point. I think we are in turn

849
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 9: for in store for an economic downturn. That's why I

850
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 9: want an accountant like Nikki Haley to be President of

851
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 9: the United States, because you need someone that can manage

852
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 9: and understands these things at a fundamental issue. Donald Trump's

853
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 9: an economic policy is I'll just keep borrowing money and

854
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 9: you guys will have to pay it back sometime to

855
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 9: keep everything floating, and everyone gives them a pass on that.

856
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 9: But at the end of the day, if you look

857
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 9: at housing prices, if you look at the workforce issues

858
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,320
Speaker 9: that are happening across the country, limited services that are happening,

859
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 9: the record high credit card debt, the fact that people

860
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 9: are still struggling to put fuel in their homes, the

861
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 9: fact that we're not energy dominant, which we should be.

862
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 9: In Niki wants System one, bring it there.

863
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 6: Pumped a record amount of oil lash year, but.

864
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 9: We're not keeping up with what is needed. Yeah, you

865
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 9: can pump a record them out, but again, if you're

866
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 9: not keeping up with with what is needed, you have

867
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 9: supply chain issues that creates energy at the heart is

868
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 9: at the heart of inflation. Inflation is created by one thing, right,

869
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 9: government prints and borrows too much money. That's it, that's all.

870
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 9: It causes inflation. But the second biggest issue around that

871
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 9: is energy. We could be energy dominant, which allows products

872
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 9: to go from A to B much quicker, parks to

873
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 9: be created a lot cheaper, and at the end of

874
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 9: the day, inflation is the worst tax on low income

875
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 9: families you can imagine because a wealthy family can handle inflation.

876
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 9: I might pinch us a little bit, but we'll be okay.

877
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 9: Low income families are getting crushed. They can't take their

878
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 9: family to McDonald's for less than thirty five bucks. That's crazy.

879
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 9: That is absolutely crazy. So it's those on the ground issues.

880
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 9: Stock market Okay, fine, that could be inflated, whatever it

881
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 9: might be. These kind of big ticket items that might

882
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 9: be talked about the press, But go out there and

883
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 9: talk to these families. They can't find housing. They're getting

884
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 9: because you can't build it. Why because it costs so

885
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 9: much just to build housing, and when you do, it's

886
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 9: twenty five hundred dollars a month for a one bedroom apartment.

887
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 9: These are the kitchen table issues. Childcare. Nikki was at

888
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 9: a childcare center this past week. Families can barely afford childcare,

889
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 9: and one of the reasons is we can't find childcare workers.

890
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 9: So again, you got to have the education system to

891
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 9: create the infrastructure fuel for all these issues. So you

892
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 9: can talk about big ticket items here, but what's happening

893
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 9: on the ground in America right now is very very different.

894
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: I know you've got a lot of families figuring out

895
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 2: when to fill up the oil tank right now, right

896
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: here in the Amy's outside this morning. It's a very

897
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: real thing.

898
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 9: People on fixed income. You know, let's talk about the

899
00:41:56,320 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 9: Social security issue. Social Security is going bankrupt law. There

900
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 9: is a twenty two twenty three percent cut and benefits

901
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 9: coming in about ten years. That's in the law. Trump

902
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 9: says that we'll do nothing to stop it. Right, I'm

903
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 9: not going to stop it. Nicki's the only one that

904
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 9: has a way to stop the benefits from being cut

905
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 9: and allowing everyone to keep the benefits that they've been promised.

906
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 9: But she's the only one willing to engage on that issue.

907
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 9: That's a huge issue. If you're a senior, you should

908
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 9: be scared to death that.

909
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 2: Donald tell I'm going to let you mention that, because

910
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 2: there's an ad running that the Trump campaign has that's

911
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: got my face in it talking to Nicki Haley about

912
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 2: social Security. It's remarkable. The claims in the ad go

913
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 2: far beyond what she said. This is a big deal

914
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: for an aging population New Hampshire, never mind the rest

915
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 2: of the country. Does she need to put a finer

916
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 2: point on that policy and say this will be the

917
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 2: age and this is what we're going to tell twenty

918
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 2: one year olds or twenty year olds when it comes

919
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 2: time for them to start.

920
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 12: Sure.

921
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 9: So look, I think she's been talking about it. I

922
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 9: think again the Trump adds and all the negativity and

923
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 9: the lies and everything. He just says whatever he wants

924
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 9: to say, just to bash on Nikki. But at the

925
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 9: end of the day, it's his complacency on Social Security

926
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 9: that allows it to go bankrupt. He's effectively acknowledged it

927
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 9: and that cut is coming. And again, if you're a senior,

928
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 9: you should be scared to death that you'd be potentially

929
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 9: getting behind Donald Trump when he says the cuts come in,

930
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 9: there's nothing you can do about it.

931
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 2: He has that in common with Joe Biden, doesn't That's right, there.

932
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 9: Were both nobody both fans. But it is going backrupt.

933
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 9: This isn't like, oh it might it might not. It

934
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:23,359
Speaker 9: is going bankrupt, that cuts are coming. Someone like Nikki

935
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 9: Haley has to get in there to show how to

936
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 9: maintain those benefits, maintain those services for the elderly, and

937
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 9: again allow the system to be solvent. Once again, it

938
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 9: can be done. It's just good math. And again it's

939
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 9: also holding Congress accountable so they do their job as well.

940
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 2: Maybe you should have run. You could have brought that issue.

941
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

942
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,439
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

943
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

944
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. I'll watch us

945
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

946
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. It's tour to forced conversation.

947
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 9: There, Killie.

948
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: We covered a lot of ground in a conversation that

949
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: you're not going to hear anywhere else, which is why

950
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 2: it was featured today in the Boston Globe and the

951
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 2: New York Times. Really fascinating to try to get inside

952
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: his head and understand his real expectations. I don't know

953
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:22,720
Speaker 2: how you quantify a strong second.

954
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 6: He didn't seem to want to get specific with what

955
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 6: a strong second would mean either. I just thought it

956
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 6: was so interesting to hear him tell us after all

957
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 6: of the hype about New Hampshire being Nicki Hayley's best

958
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 6: chance to upset the front runner, to say that she

959
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 6: doesn't have to win here.

960
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 2: Isn't that something?

961
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 6: And I just wonder if that is an argument that

962
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 6: Rick and Jeanie Yeah, also.

963
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 2: By Yeah let's bring the panel back and Rick Davis

964
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 2: and Jeanie Sanzano with us at the table here. What's

965
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: your thought on that? Genie really really gaming expectations now,

966
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: although it's hard to even really figure out, as we

967
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: just heard, where the governor sets the bar.

968
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's right. He I was just thinking watching your interview. Gosh,

969
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 10: remember when we thought he might run, and that is

970
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 10: an example as to why.

971
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 6: So many repplicants.

972
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 10: Yeah, he's glad he didn't. I think some Republicans wish

973
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 10: he did. You know, it is so it is so hard.

974
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 10: I think looking at those polls, he wants to lower

975
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 10: expectations so that she can at least meet them. You know,

976
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,720
Speaker 10: I've heard people say everything from three to seven points

977
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,319
Speaker 10: she can lose by. But you know, my view has

978
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 10: always been winning New Hampshire is losing for Nicki Haley

979
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 10: because Donald Trump has successfully, I think made her the

980
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 10: poster child of the never trumpers.

981
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:33,359
Speaker 2: He talks about her.

982
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 10: As the candidate of globalists, the candidates of the media,

983
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 10: the candidate of the Democrats. A vote for her as

984
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 10: a vote for Joe Biden. So even if she was to,

985
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 10: you know, just beat expectations and win he is going

986
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,320
Speaker 10: to make it really, really difficult for her to go

987
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 10: down to South Carolina with those demographics and to really

988
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 10: push this thing up.

989
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 6: So, Rick, is this a lose lose situation for Nicki Haley?

990
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 3: No?

991
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 8: I think she could only win, right. I mean, look,

992
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 8: she's got it down to a two person rates. There

993
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 8: is a ticket out of New Hampshire regardless if you

994
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 8: beat Donald Trump. And remember he's won one caucus with

995
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,879
Speaker 8: fifty thousand people. That does not speak for the entire

996
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 8: Republican Party, including independence and non alliance who do participate

997
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 8: as Republicans here in New Hampshire. And so the thing

998
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 8: that I always get a kick out of is Donald

999
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 8: Trump makes a big deal about this issue of Nikki

1000
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 8: having independent support here, but he does too. Yes, thirty

1001
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 8: eight percent of his ballot, that fifty percent is contributed

1002
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 8: by thirty eight percent independent voters. So it's look, these

1003
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 8: are the rules of the road. Everybody knows it when

1004
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 8: they sign in to run here, and it's historically always

1005
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 8: been a factor as much as forty percent maybe more

1006
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 8: this time of the vote tomorrow will be these unaligned

1007
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 8: voters who become Republicans at least for the day and

1008
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,800
Speaker 8: that's what a good recruiting mechanism.

1009
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 2: Just quickly, we're going to hear from Congressoman any Custer

1010
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 2: in just a moment. Genie's talking about lowering expectations. You've

1011
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 2: been part of this. Is that what you do on

1012
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 2: the eve of her winning, you try to make this

1013
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 2: look like a bigger deal than it would be otherwise.

1014
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 2: Do they think they're going to win and they're telling

1015
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 2: us a strong second.

1016
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's great participation in both the media and the

1017
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 8: campaigns on expectation.

1018
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 9: Media want to create high expectations.

1019
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 8: Look at you got to really knock the ball over

1020
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 8: the fence, right, No, I can get on second base

1021
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 8: and that's a win for me.

1022
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, is there a lot yes work in the reft. Okay,

1023
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: We're going to stick with Rick and Jeanie because I

1024
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: want to hear from you what the Democrats are doing

1025
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 2: or not doing. We haven't even mentioned Dean Phillips yet.

1026
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 2: And it's a conversation we had with Congresswoman Any Custer,

1027
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 2: Democrat here in New Hampshire from the second district, who's

1028
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: driving a write in campaign for the president. After the

1029
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 2: DNC got in this confused mess as the President put

1030
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 2: South Carolina ahead in the line. Here's Congresswoman any Custer.

1031
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 12: We want to make sure that when voters turn out

1032
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 12: on Tuesday, that they know they can write in Joe

1033
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 12: Biden's name. Just go to the bottom of the ballot. Luckily,

1034
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 12: it's easy to spell, and they can vote for Joe

1035
00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 12: Biden in the first presidential primary here in New Hampshire.

1036
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,720
Speaker 2: Are you setting expectations on a turnout for Joe Biden?

1037
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 2: Do you need to reach a certain threshold? What if

1038
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 2: he gets sixty percent? Is that a bad look?

1039
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 12: Well, here's the thing. I want to make sure he wins.

1040
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 12: But I think it's going to be impressive, and I

1041
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 12: think it's going to send him into the next contests

1042
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 12: and into this primary season with a strong foundation. I

1043
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 12: want to make sure that people understand we support Joe

1044
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 12: Biden for a second term. We're proud of the work

1045
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 12: that he's done domestically, and we're very grateful for his

1046
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 12: leadership on the world stage.

1047
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 2: So you're making a statement here. Your delegates must be frustrated, though.

1048
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: Will you make an effort to recognize your delegates at

1049
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: the convention when Democrats meet later this year.

1050
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 12: Sure, I think if it goes well, on Tuesday. That

1051
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 12: won't be any problem at all. We've been through this before.

1052
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:55,280
Speaker 12: Other contests have about whether their delegates will be seated.

1053
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 12: Look most New Hampshire voters and even the most engaged

1054
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 12: people who have been through many, many campaigns. I've been

1055
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 12: doing this since I was sixteen years old. We're not

1056
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 12: hung up on delegate selection and all of that. We

1057
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 12: want to make sure that the voters are heard.

1058
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:12,360
Speaker 2: And part of the.

1059
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 12: History of the New Hampshire Primary is that it came

1060
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 12: into being so that voters could speak directly on their

1061
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 12: preference for president and not have these decisions be made

1062
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 12: in backdoor business rooms where you know, pundits get together

1063
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 12: and make these choices.

1064
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:33,439
Speaker 2: Would have been nice for the president to make a visit,

1065
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 2: maybe hold a rally or something.

1066
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 9: Wouldn't that well, I have to laugh.

1067
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 12: We've had I think we're up to ten cabinet visits

1068
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 12: in the last month or so for last week, so

1069
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 12: I think they're here in spirit.

1070
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 2: So that's what you're trying to accomplish. What's Dean Phillips

1071
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 2: trying to accomplish? Have you spoken to him as he

1072
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 2: asked you for your support?

1073
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 12: He's asked me for my advice. I told him I

1074
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 12: thought it was ill advised, not well timed. He got

1075
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 12: in on literally the very last day, and frankly, and

1076
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:04,240
Speaker 12: I mean this kindly, I think it's unimpressive in terms

1077
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 12: of the campaign that he put together. As I said,

1078
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 12: I've been doing this for fifty years. I've seen what

1079
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 12: it takes. I was in on the ground floor with

1080
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 12: Joe bi with Barack Obama. He used to say, I

1081
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 12: was on board before Michelle was on board. And I've

1082
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,760
Speaker 12: seen what it looks like to do dozens of house

1083
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 12: parties and town hall meetings and build that grassroots campaign

1084
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,880
Speaker 12: that's going to deliver the vote on Tuesday.

1085
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 2: He says he grew up here, even though how to

1086
00:50:32,239 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 2: shoot guns as a kid in New Hampshire. What doesn't

1087
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 2: he understand about the Granite State.

1088
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 12: I don't think he understands much. I think that what

1089
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 12: he's missing is that, like other parts of the country,

1090
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 12: we care to learn and vet a candidate, and he

1091
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 12: really hasn't put in the time or built the support.

1092
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 12: We turn to our friends, our neighbors, our colleagues to

1093
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 12: see who who is getting support. You're watching this now

1094
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 12: on the Republican side with Nikki Haley with our Governor

1095
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 12: Chris Sanunu. We care a lot about who are the

1096
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 12: surrogates that are getting behind these candidates, and I don't

1097
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:17,800
Speaker 12: think he's built the support that would be a substantial campaign,

1098
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 12: a serious campaign.

1099
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 2: Some of you heard Donald Trump last night. He says

1100
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 2: Democrats are going to vote in this primary to infiltrate

1101
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 2: the process. That is, of course not possible. Not to

1102
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 2: do you wish he was right?

1103
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 12: Well, look, I think there are many undeclared voters we

1104
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 12: call them here in New Hampshire. They're not registered Democrat

1105
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 12: or Republican. They're making the decision right now whether to

1106
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 12: take a Democratic ballot and write in Joe Biden or

1107
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 12: whether to take a Republican ballot and vote for Nicki Haley.

1108
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 12: But the message that they're delivering is the same. On Tuesday,

1109
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 12: New Hampshire voters do not want Donald Trump to have

1110
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 12: a second term. They think that he's not fit to

1111
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 12: be the president United States.

1112
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 2: Again, that's fascinating. So you're comfortable with people doing either

1113
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 2: as long as I think.

1114
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 12: People should do what they feel most comfortable doing. I

1115
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 12: voted for Joe Biden, and I'm encouraging people to support

1116
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,880
Speaker 12: Joe Biden for a second term. But there will be

1117
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,320
Speaker 12: people who will choose to vote in the Republican primary

1118
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:28,240
Speaker 12: to deliver that message, that anti Trump message by voting

1119
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 12: for Nikki Haley. And you know, one part of this

1120
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 12: story that they understand very well. I was one of

1121
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 12: the last people evacuated from the capital on January sixth,

1122
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 12: twenty twenty one, and they've heard this story. And three

1123
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 12: weeks ago they saw the video footage that it was

1124
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 12: only thirty seconds from when I was evacuated to win.

1125
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 12: Those insurrectionists are in that hallway hunting for us, trying

1126
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 12: to disrupt the election. And New Hampshire voters know full

1127
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 12: well that it was Donald Trump that instigated that attack

1128
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 12: on our government and that was trying to overthrow overturn

1129
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 12: the results of the election. So I think the sentiment

1130
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 12: is very strong, and I hope the message will be

1131
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 12: sent on both sides of the ticket that Donald Trump

1132
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:17,839
Speaker 12: is not fit for another term.

1133
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 2: Congresswoman Annie Custer, the Democrat from New Hampshire, talking with

1134
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 2: us here on Bloomberg Balance of Power in Manchester, New Hampshire.

1135
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in a quick

1136
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 2: swing here from Jeanie Shanzano as a Democrat. Is Dean

1137
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:38,320
Speaker 2: Phillips the spoiler the problem that she frames him? Or

1138
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 2: should more Democrats have run?

1139
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 10: You know, there's twenty one people on this ballot, including

1140
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 10: our old favorite paper boy Love Prince, who's not there.

1141
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 2: Joe Biden.

1142
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 10: I'm theay, we love him, but you know, Joe Biden,

1143
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,919
Speaker 10: it's a write and that's tough to win. I think

1144
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 10: Joe Biden is running this Rose Garden strategy. He really

1145
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 10: needs to get out there. Bernie Sanders is right face

1146
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 10: the economic challenges people are confronting in New Hampshire and elsewhere.

1147
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 2: Is this risky though? What if, like we just said,

1148
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 2: what if Dean Phillips beats the president because of this

1149
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:06,439
Speaker 2: hokey writing camp?

1150
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean Dean Phillips has a shot, but he's

1151
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 10: not going to go anywhere out of this except maybe

1152
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 10: to No Labels.

1153
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

1154
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

1155
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 1: and then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

1156
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

1157
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

1158
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,319
Speaker 2: Live from the first in the Nation primary state. Thanks

1159
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: for being with us on Balance of Power here on

1160
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew live in Manchester

1161
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:45,759
Speaker 2: alongside Kaylee Lines as we try to figure out what's

1162
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 2: going to happen twenty four hours from now. Kayley, A

1163
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 2: big raft of poles dropped this morning, and it's not

1164
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 2: just the spread that we're looking at, it's the incredible

1165
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 2: consistency between these poles. Gregory Cordy made the point earlier

1166
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,800
Speaker 2: in the broadcast that this seems to have and the

1167
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 2: dicenes have been cast months ago, we haven't seen much motion,

1168
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 2: certainly since Chris Christy dropped out of the race, the

1169
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: thought being that this might look like the way the

1170
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: results due tomorrow.

1171
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 6: Well, even the polling that was showing Haley in single

1172
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 6: digits behind former President Trump just weeks ago CNN, for example,

1173
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 6: is now showing her double digits. That's important behind him

1174
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 6: nineteen points spread in the Suffolk University Boston Globe poll,

1175
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 6: eighteen points spread when it comes to Monmouth and the

1176
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 6: Washington Post, and in the latest Emerson College polling that

1177
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 6: came out yesterday, Joe fifty percent planned to support Trump,

1178
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 6: thirty five percent support Nikki Haley, and then eight percent

1179
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 6: support Ron DeSantis, who, of course, as of yesterday afternoon,

1180
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 6: is no longer in this race as he dropped and

1181
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 6: endorsed Trump.

1182
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,720
Speaker 2: So was that the worst timing ever? Is a question

1183
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 2: for Nicky Haley supporters because those votes aren't going to Nicky,

1184
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 2: They're going to Trump from the DeSantis camp.

1185
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 6: So goes the thinking. But let's get the opinion now,

1186
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,840
Speaker 6: Spencer Kimball, the Emerson College polling director. So as I said, Spencer,

1187
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 6: thank you so much for joining us here in Manchester.

1188
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:07,800
Speaker 6: In our studio, eight percent support for Ron de Santis.

1189
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 6: Where does that eight percent go?

1190
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 11: So that conventional wisdom is that he's in the same

1191
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 11: lane as Trump, and he'll go into Trump's lane, But

1192
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 11: our polling indicates that those voters are more split. There

1193
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:19,800
Speaker 11: was a reason why they weren't voting for Trump and

1194
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 11: they were voting for DeSantis. And it looks like about

1195
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 11: forty forty five percent would actually vote for Haley and

1196
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 11: she might actually pick up a few votes there. Remember

1197
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 11: when Christie dropped out of the race, she didn't pick

1198
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 11: up all twelve of those points. She only picked up

1199
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 11: six or seven, and so same thing will probably happen

1200
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 11: with the DeSantis vote.

1201
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 2: What's it like as a polster when you settle on

1202
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 2: your numbers and you look around you see everyone else

1203
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 2: got almost the same numbers. This is pretty unusual, it.

1204
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 11: Is It is usually you see a range of scores

1205
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 11: with our polls, and then it's going to fall within

1206
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,239
Speaker 11: that range. But we kind of saw this happening in

1207
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:53,800
Speaker 11: Iowa as well. These numbers were all baked together in

1208
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 11: that low fifties, and that's what we saw with Trump.

1209
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 11: A little bit of a surprise with DeSantis. We'll see

1210
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 11: here in New Hampshire we're also seeing Trump in that

1211
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 11: low fifties. If those numbers hold or were those undecided,

1212
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:07,839
Speaker 11: break for Haley potentially making a little closer.

1213
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 6: Well in New Hampshire consistently is a surprise. It's just

1214
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:12,759
Speaker 6: a question of whether or not everybody's going to be

1215
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 6: surprised this time around, when it seems that everyone feels

1216
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 6: an inevitability of Trump ultimately, if not outright winning the state,

1217
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,520
Speaker 6: it's going to be very tight. And ultimately, it seems

1218
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 6: according to everyone Joe and I have talked to here

1219
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 6: in recent days that everybody presumes he's going to be

1220
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 6: the Republican nominee. And part of that is not just

1221
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 6: the way that he's polling in terms of the headline

1222
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 6: figures of how much support he has. It's the enthusiasm

1223
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 6: of the people who say they are voting for him.

1224
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 6: What have you seen in your data on that?

1225
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 11: Yeah, So we ask voters, what's the chances you're going

1226
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 11: to change your mind or you're going to stick with

1227
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 11: your candidate? And the Trump vote has been between seventy

1228
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 11: five and ninety percent sticking with Trump right now it's

1229
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:50,919
Speaker 11: at ninety be fed back in August it's at seventy five,

1230
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 11: so it's only been growing. Hailey, on the other hand,

1231
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 11: she's at eighty percent now, but she was at fifty

1232
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 11: so her vote has locked in. Over the last couple

1233
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 11: of weeks, we saw his numbers drop. His voters were

1234
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 11: locked in, and in our last poll we saw fifty

1235
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 11: percent were like, hey, we might switch, and I bet

1236
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 11: you the governor saw that as well and decided maybe

1237
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:10,200
Speaker 11: it's time to get out of this.

1238
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: We've learned and this is from a Monmouth poll out today,

1239
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 2: you might have found this very same thing. Spencer. Forty

1240
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 2: seven percent of potential Republican primary voters are not registered Republicans.

1241
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: This this is the strange, mysterious independent voter that we

1242
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 2: keep hearing about forty seven percent of potential Republican primary voters.

1243
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: What does that mean for Nicky Haley in terms of

1244
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 2: a potential surprise tomorrow?

1245
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 6: She needs more.

1246
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 11: She needs sixty percent independent votes because she's losing the Republicans.

1247
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 11: So these are registered independents in New Hampshi. They're called

1248
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 11: undeclared declares, and we have registered Republicans. Normally, in a

1249
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:51,560
Speaker 11: party primary, sixty percent of Republicans, forty percent will be independents.

1250
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 11: And what we're seeing here is it more of a

1251
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 11: fifty five to forty five. What she needs is to

1252
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:58,800
Speaker 11: flip the script and get actually a larger percentage of

1253
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 11: independence to come out like sixty percent and only have

1254
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 11: forty percent of Republicans vote in this primary.

1255
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 6: So high turnout maybe what she needs here if she's

1256
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:09,200
Speaker 6: going to eke something out, and she's just a question

1257
00:59:09,280 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 6: of how high that turnout will be.

1258
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:12,439
Speaker 2: The Victoria State told us we'd have a record, which

1259
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 2: I don't understand why I'm around Manchester right now.

1260
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, it feels quieter than at least I would have anticipated.

1261
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 6: Joe really hyped it up to me before we came here.

1262
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 2: In I told this whole story about the carnival that

1263
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 2: comes with the New Hampshire primary. We can't get arrested

1264
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 2: out on Elm Street.

1265
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,440
Speaker 11: I agree, it's a different atmosphere this time around than

1266
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 11: I've seen in my twenty years of studying these elections.

1267
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:37,720
Speaker 11: But remember New Hampshire takes their primary very seriously, and

1268
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 11: the Democrats have moved away from being first in the

1269
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 11: nation and the reason why they might come out is

1270
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 11: to make the statement that they want to stay. Remember

1271
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 11: twenty twenty eight is coming. Are they going to stay

1272
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 11: first in the nation or are they going to lose

1273
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 11: out to South Carolina. So that's the reason I think

1274
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 11: you could see a tremendous turnout is more of the

1275
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 11: pride of their state. And you'll see it on the

1276
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 11: Democratic side as well, even though there's really not a contest.

1277
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 6: Well, and we know the voters in New Hampshire like

1278
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 6: to hear from these candidates as much as they possibly can.

1279
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 6: They could have heard more from Nicki Haley had she

1280
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 6: actually decided to partake in debates this week, which she

1281
01:00:07,720 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 6: did not is that having an impact on how she's

1282
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:13,480
Speaker 6: pulling as we really approach the endgame here.

1283
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 11: Well, we were thinking the same thing, and so we

1284
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 11: asked the voters, what do you think about her skipping

1285
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 11: the debates? And for seventy five percent they said it

1286
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 11: didn't matter. Now we asked them about Trump skipping all

1287
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:23,960
Speaker 11: of the debates, and for sixty percent of them it

1288
01:00:24,000 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 11: didn't matter, and for the ones that it mattered are

1289
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 11: kind of split. I was thinking, you got a debate

1290
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 11: just for a game changer. You came out of Iowa

1291
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 11: without that momentum. You needed some sort of focusing event

1292
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 11: during this week, and she didn't really have that. And

1293
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 11: unfortunately in her campaign, the focusing event seemed to be

1294
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 11: the endorsements of Trump by some of her opponents, Tim

1295
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 11: Scott and he got to Santis, and so that's not

1296
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 11: what she needed to go into the primary.

1297
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 7: We'll see if it plays out for her, though.

1298
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 2: Well, especially, you've done a great job here at Emerson.

1299
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 2: I went to Emerson College way before there was a

1300
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 2: polling institute there, and you've really put yourself on the

1301
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 2: map here in a great way. Do great work, and

1302
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 2: we've really enjoyed following the data. Are you ready for

1303
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:06,000
Speaker 2: the longest general election campaign of your life?

1304
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 11: Well, yes, we're looking forward to studying the election. But

1305
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 11: remember we got primaries in Ohio and California. There's other races.

1306
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 11: There's a New York third district race that people are

1307
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 11: interested in. So yes, we have presidential primary politics.

1308
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 2: We'll keep it on a reason. We would love to

1309
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:22,880
Speaker 2: stay in touch with you, even being New Hampshire. And

1310
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 2: I appreciate you being with us today.

1311
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 11: My pleasure.

1312
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 7: It's great to be with you.

1313
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 2: Stuff Spencer Kimball with us from Emerson College polling. These

1314
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 2: numbers look pretty stubborn right now, Kayley.

1315
01:01:32,160 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, and they don't look great if you're Nikki Haley

1316
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,800
Speaker 6: or her supporters. And limited times to change minds here, Joe,

1317
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 6: and the polls open in just about sixteen short hours.

1318
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 11: Ye,