1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 3: Let's turn to the Federal Reserve. 11 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: The newest Federal Reserve Governor, Stephen Myron, making the case 12 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 2: for aggressively luring interest rates to avoid damaging the economy. 13 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: Diverging from some other FMC members, I'm pleased to say 14 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: that joining us this morning live from the Federal Reserve 15 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 2: is Governor Myron himself. Governor, Welcome to the program, sir. 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 2: We've got tons of time to talk about what's going 17 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: to happen next. Your thoughts on the labor market, the 18 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: balance of risk, the broader economy. I actually wanted to 19 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 2: lead the conversation with this one Governor. What was your experience, 20 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: like I'm sure this was unexpected twelve months ago. What 21 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 2: was it like walking into the room and was it 22 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: different to what you expected? 23 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 4: Good morning, and thanks for having me. It's great to 24 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 4: see you again. Look, you know, walking into the room, 25 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 4: you know, I had had a good briefing ahead of 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,199 Speaker 4: time about what the meeting would what the meeting would 27 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 4: be like, and so that was very helpful. But I 28 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 4: will say that everyone was extremely friendly and welcoming and 29 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 4: kind and collegial, and I really appreciated that. And you know, 30 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 4: it's important to understand that the FMC is a body, 31 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: the Federal Open Market Committee is a body that makes 32 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 4: decisions by arguing on the merits of the economics and 33 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 4: the economics and the merits of policy. 34 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 5: And that's how it was. 35 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 4: And everyone was very collegial and airing their views, and 36 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 4: I the same, and that's what it will continue to be. 37 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 4: You know, we make policy, as the chairman said last week, 38 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 4: by persuasion, and so I will continue to try to 39 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 4: lay up my views and make the cases best I can. 40 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 2: The governor, I essentially got the opportunity to articulate your argument. 41 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 2: Just how much daylight did you sense? Was there was 42 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 2: between you and everyone else on the committee. 43 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 5: Well, I mean, you know, it's sort of funny. 44 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 4: If you look at the dots in the summary of 45 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 4: economic projections, you know, obviously there's a divergence between my 46 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: projection for appropriate policy for twenty twenty five versus where 47 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 4: the weight of everyone else's is. But if you look 48 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 4: at next year in the year after, you know, I'm 49 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 4: sure I'm still on the low end. But you know, 50 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 4: there's not really that much daylight between all the rest 51 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 4: of the dots and myself in the following years. So 52 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 4: it's really just about the speed with which we come 53 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 4: down to what's closer to neutral. 54 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: Well, let's get into the neutral argument. I think that's 55 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: what separates you from a lot of people. So you've 56 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: got it in the mid two's, Governor, and you think 57 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 2: we should get there quickly. Can you just build out 58 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 2: why you believe that's the case and why we should 59 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 2: get there so fast? 60 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 5: Sure? 61 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 4: So, look, you know I discussed a number of forces 62 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 4: which have kicked in over the course of this year 63 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 4: and which are I think can start contrast to where 64 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 4: they were last year year. So I've argued that neutral 65 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 4: was higher in the past than it is now and 66 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 4: that neutral was higher for a variety of reasons. But 67 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 4: I've highlighted recently fiscal policy, you know, sort of driving 68 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 4: up net national borrowing, decreasing national savings, as well as 69 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 4: immigration policy driving what was the biggest positive population growth 70 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 4: shock in my lifetime and has now turned into the 71 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 4: biggest negative population growth shock in my lifetime in very 72 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 4: rapid succession relative to how changes in population growth you 73 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 4: normally normally occur in the data. And so to me, 74 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 4: when you have huge swings in net national savings driven 75 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 4: by fiscal policy and you have huge swings in population 76 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 4: growth driven by changes to border policy, it would be 77 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 4: bizarre for me to think that that wouldn't have implications 78 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 4: for the fundamental structure of the economy that gets reflected 79 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 4: for Montaria policy. 80 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 5: In the neutral rate. 81 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: So my view is that neutral was higher last year 82 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 4: because of these reasons. And so last year policy was 83 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 4: not as tight as a lot of people believed. And 84 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 4: now neutral has come down or is in the process 85 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 4: of coming down, and now neutral and now policy is 86 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 4: more tight than people believe. 87 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 5: And this has happened recently. 88 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 4: You know, these policies didn't change, you know, sort of 89 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 4: overnight they've been kicking in over the course of the year, 90 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 4: and that means that policy is becoming tighter every day 91 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 4: as these policies continue. 92 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 5: To kick in. 93 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 4: And my view is not one of enormous economic pessimism. 94 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 4: You know, I don't think the economy is about to creator. 95 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 4: I don't think the labor market's about to fall off 96 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 4: a cliff. However, the neutral rate is drifting down, and 97 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 4: as a result of that, it's in comment upon policy 98 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 4: to adjust in response. And the longer that policy stays 99 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 4: excessively excessively restrictive, the greater the risks to the downside 100 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,479 Speaker 4: for the economy. If policy stays excessively restrictive for too long, 101 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 4: then you do get to in a situation in which 102 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 4: you have a meaningful, meaningful increase in an employment rate 103 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 4: and a failure of the employment mandata. 104 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: So, Governor, that's the tension. I think in your view, 105 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 2: that's worth exploring just a little bit more. On the 106 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 2: one hand, you don't think the economies at risks have 107 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 2: breaking down, but you also think we are sessively tight 108 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,239 Speaker 2: at the moment and getting tighter. There are some people 109 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 2: who would say, and we've had this conversation around the 110 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: table this morning, if we were as tight as you suggesting, 111 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 2: why is the market within one percent of record highs? 112 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 2: Why credit spreads super tight, and why is this economy 113 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 2: still doing Okay, Yeah. 114 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 4: So that's a perfectly natural thing to ask. Sorry, and 115 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 4: let me say, let me say two things. One, I 116 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 4: don't think that all financial conditions are universally loose like that. 117 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 4: In particular, if you look at the housing market, I 118 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 4: think it's in quite a different state than you know, 119 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,159 Speaker 4: sort of some financial markets and you know, sort of 120 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 4: security markets. So I don't think that that's necessarily a 121 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 4: holistic look at the world of financial conditions in the economy. 122 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 4: But even that aside, I think that, you know, people 123 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,039 Speaker 4: in financial markets tend to focus a lot on monetary 124 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 4: policy because interest rates are you know, sort of huge 125 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 4: tradable instruments, right, But there's so much more that goes 126 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 4: into determining economic growth and the state of economy and 127 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 4: inflation and employment than monetary policy. And I think that 128 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 4: attributing all changes in financial assets to monetary policy can 129 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 4: be a mistake. And in particular, that's what I tried 130 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 4: to do in my speech, you know, was to draw 131 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 4: out some of these some of these effects from non 132 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 4: monetary policies that are affecting the economy, and of course 133 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 4: therefore also financial markets. And so if you have changes 134 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 4: in tax policy, right like significant incentives for investing that 135 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 4: lower the effective tax rate on capital, of course that's 136 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 4: going to get reflected into capital assets. If you have 137 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 4: significant changes to the regulatory environment where you're removing barriers 138 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 4: to operations that companies can make more more cheaply, which 139 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 4: by the way, is disinflationary and pushes at the applicap, 140 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 4: then of course that's also going to be reflected in 141 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 4: asset markets. So I think it's a mistake to conflate 142 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 4: the state of financial conditions with monitary policy. They're connected, 143 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 4: they're related, they affect each other, but they're not exactly 144 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,040 Speaker 4: the same thing. And in the speech I go line 145 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 4: by line through these different items. And the reason why 146 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 4: monetary policy doesn't have to react to the hawkish side 147 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 4: in response to these back to these policy changes is 148 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 4: because they push out the supply side of the economy 149 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 4: at the same time that they push out demand. And 150 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 4: so if you're increasing supply and demand at the same time, 151 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 4: there's no change to the apput gap. And of course 152 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 4: it's monetary's policy job at the end of the day 153 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 4: to be balancing the apput gap, to be balancing aggregate 154 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 4: supply and aggregthm indity economy so it doesn't overheat or underheat. 155 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 6: I think there are a lot of people, Governor Myron, 156 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 6: who'd agree with you that probably the neutral rate is 157 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 6: quite a bit below. 158 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 2: Where we are now. 159 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 6: You said, even the other Fed governors did seem to 160 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 6: agree with that. 161 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 7: But not necessarily the speed. 162 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 5: And I'm still unclear. 163 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 6: Why do you think it is so important to get 164 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 6: rates down by one hundred and twenty five or one 165 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 6: hundred and fifty one hundred and fifty basis points more 166 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 6: this year if inflation is still running hot and you're 167 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 6: not seeing anything alarming in the underlying economy. 168 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, so this year is merely a function of where 169 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 4: the calendar is. So my view is that policy is 170 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 4: quite restrictive, and so I'd like to adjust quickly to 171 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 4: get back to a more neutral area. 172 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 5: Right. 173 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 4: That just means a series of fifties get until you 174 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 4: get much closer to zero. The fact that it's this 175 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 4: year is just just a function, just to function of 176 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 4: the calendar. But again it comes back to the longer 177 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 4: that you stay restrictive, the greater the risks. And let 178 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 4: me put it this way, like it was just a 179 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 4: few years ago that we were having endless conversations about 180 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 4: declining population growth rates in the whole world's becoming Japan 181 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 4: in terms of interest rate profiles. Right, those forces are 182 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 4: still real, those dynamics are still real. 183 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 5: They didn't go away. 184 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 4: Those channels, you know, those channels by which population growth effects, 185 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 4: neutral rates didn't disappear. 186 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 5: I would rather react. 187 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 4: I would rather act proactively, right and sort of we 188 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 4: know that we just had the biggest population growth shocks 189 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 4: in many people's lifetimes, mine included, Right, I would we 190 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 4: know what the consequences. 191 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 5: Of those are economically. 192 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 4: I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a 193 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 4: result ahead of time, rather than wait for some you know, 194 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,839 Speaker 4: giant catastrophe to occur, because you suddenly wake up and 195 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 4: find out that you are sort of resuming those dynamics. 196 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 4: In my mind, if you wait to sort of to 197 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 4: see the result of that, you have waited too long, 198 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 4: and there will be there will have been a potentially 199 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 4: quite material. 200 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 5: Downside miss to the employment mandate. 201 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 6: A lot of people on this show have been wondering 202 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 6: what the reaction mechanism is going to be for a 203 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 6: federal reserve. This does start to see inflation as transitory. 204 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 6: Once again, the idea that we have been above two percent, 205 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 6: the two percent target for the federal reserve for fifty 206 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 6: three consecutive months, for more than four years. If there 207 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 6: is an upsurgeon inflation, how long are you willing to 208 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 6: look through that if you are cutting rates before you say, 209 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 6: hold on a second, maybe we need to stop. 210 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I would want to understand why there was 211 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 4: an obsurgent inflation and what was driving it, and then 212 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 4: sort of think about whether that shock is likely to 213 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 4: be persistent or whether the shock is likely to be transitory. 214 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 4: And it's the nature. It's the nature of the shock. 215 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 4: It's not just as inflation higher for a certain number 216 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 4: of months. It's why is it higher or why is 217 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 4: it lower? And how long are those and how long 218 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 4: are those shocks likely to persist? And if you have 219 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 4: a situation in which inflation is much higher because there's 220 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 4: you know, let's say a very significant expansion in national 221 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 4: borrowing that drives up demand could be driven by fiscal 222 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 4: it could be driven by something else. That might be 223 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 4: the type of thing that you would expect to be 224 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 4: to be more persistent. In my mind, if you have 225 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 4: the type of shock that's driven by a you know, 226 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 4: basically one off change to tax rates, right, whether that's 227 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 4: a VAT tax or tariffs or anything else, you know, that, 228 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 4: in my mind is not the type of chalk that 229 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 4: would lead you to think that inflation is going to 230 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 4: be sticky for a long period of time. And in fact, 231 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:30,599 Speaker 4: there's you know, most central banks around the world, I 232 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 4: think actually all of them would sort of you know, 233 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 4: encounter this in a much more direct manner through changes 234 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 4: in value added taxes, and they always look through them, 235 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 4: you know, they always say, okay, look the VAT went 236 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 4: up or the BAT went down, and that's going to 237 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 4: affect the inflation stistics for a period of time. But 238 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 4: then we all know that this was basically a fiscally 239 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 4: mandated price change, and monetary policy shouldn't respond necessarily to 240 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 4: fiscally mandated price changes because that's not indicative of changes 241 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 4: to the underlying supplied demand balance in the economy, which 242 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 4: ultimately drives the type of persistent inflation that the central 243 00:10:59,240 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 4: bank cares about. 244 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 8: Governor mar and I love to get your thoughts a 245 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 8: little bit more deeper on housing this thing. Matt Misk 246 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,079 Speaker 8: and Neil Gotta have talked a lot on this program 247 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 8: about going into next year. Do you think the housing 248 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 8: market will weigh on a deceleration of inflation? Is that 249 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 8: part of your thesis on inflation coming down? 250 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it explicitly is I mean, Look, you know, 251 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 4: supply and demand dominates all things economically, right, and if 252 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 4: you're increasing the demand for housing by dramatically increasing population 253 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 4: growth without a material increase in the supply of housing 254 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 4: at the same time, of course, you are going to 255 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 4: get upward pressure on shelter inflation. 256 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 5: And then vice versa. 257 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 4: If you start decreasing population growth because of a change 258 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 4: in border policies without destroying shelter supply, or or shelter 259 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 4: supply keeps and expanding at a rate that it has 260 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 4: been in the previous years, then you get a relative 261 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 4: change in shelter inflation once again. So it's just it's simple, 262 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 4: you know, it's simple supply and demand. If we have 263 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 4: a material downward population shock because we have negative migration, 264 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 4: that's an increase in the supply of shelter. And I 265 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 4: think that the study that I cited in the speech 266 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 4: on Monday Work where Albert says found that Needless city 267 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,839 Speaker 4: of one basically that a one percent increase in the 268 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 4: in the number of immigrant renters leads to a one 269 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 4: percentage point change in the rents. 270 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 8: Right, but immigration is short term? Right, this is a 271 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 8: short term story. Would you be willing to revise up 272 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,079 Speaker 8: neutral if immigration is. 273 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 7: Not much of a drag? 274 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, you know, I have good reason for 275 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 4: expecting that the immigration story is going to persist at 276 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 4: least for another three and a half years, and I 277 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 4: think quite likely potentially after that. Also, So I'm not 278 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 4: convinced that immigration is really a short term story. 279 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 2: He Governor, just before you go, because I know you've 280 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 2: got a run. Have you got a taste for this? 281 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: Is this a position you'd like to keep beyond the 282 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 2: end of this year? 283 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 4: Look, you know, I love this country and I'm happy 284 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 4: to serve this country in any way that I'm asked 285 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 4: to do so. But personal decisions are not decisions that 286 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 4: I make. 287 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg Surveilance can coming up after this. 288 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 3: I's turn to the Federal Reserve. 289 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: Chris Heisi of ME and Bank of America Private Bank 290 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 2: writing loosening conditions including further FED rate cuts support risk 291 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 2: assets further. 292 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 3: Chris joins us now for more Chris and Mornic, Good morning. 293 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 2: Top decent numbers like that labor market dates. So what 294 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: you make of that claims data? 295 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 9: I make of it what I always do, which is 296 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 9: week to week is data points are pretty noisy. It 297 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 9: doesn't necessarily mean it's a trend, but it is something 298 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 9: that I think will likely see which is right around 299 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 9: those numbers for the foreseeable future. There's a little bit 300 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 9: of a supply and demand balance in the job market overall. 301 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 9: Some many companies are still in the weight and see 302 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 9: mode as it relates to how you democratize artificial intelligence. 303 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 7: So claims numbers are pretty much in line. 304 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 9: With what our belief is, which is a reacceleration coming 305 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 9: not just in real growth but nominal growth and ultimately 306 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 9: profit growth. 307 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: Are you seeing any signs event already beyond that job 308 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 2: as claims number? Why are you seeing signs of a reacceleration? 309 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 2: Where are things firm enough? 310 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 9: You know it comes down at the beginning of the year, 311 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 9: before the tariffs were put in place, there was this 312 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 9: notion that you'd have double digit profit growth for this 313 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 9: year and then next year. Then it was ratcheted back 314 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 9: by pretty much everybody across Wall Street. Now we're back 315 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 9: to the numbers again where they were at the beginning 316 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 9: of the year. So it's a reacceleration. We're seeing it 317 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 9: already in profit revisions, not just for third and fourth quarter, 318 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 9: but already for twenty six. 319 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 6: Do CEOs and CFOs believe it? Do they believe it 320 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 6: enough to actually take big steps and engage in some 321 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 6: of the m and a engage in some of the 322 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 6: hiring plans that they were talking about maybe late last 323 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 6: year early. 324 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 9: This really depends on the actual sector obviously, but in 325 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 9: terms of the general broader community, you're starting to see 326 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 9: sentiment the soft data start to change for the better. 327 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 9: Remember when we were all talking about soft data being 328 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 9: weak and then it was going to filter into the 329 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 9: hard data. 330 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 7: Never did. 331 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 9: Now soft data is coming back. You're seeing in the 332 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 9: small business segment a little bit because of the rates 333 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 9: coming down, but a little bit better economy, perhaps an 334 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 9: adjustment to the neutral rate coming down a little bit. 335 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 9: As Governor Myron just said, all of that coalesces around 336 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 9: better optimism. From the corporate side, I would say this though, 337 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 9: margins are held in there, and that's the key. The 338 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 9: bottom line is being used on an efficient basis. Some 339 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 9: productivity is increasing, but when you get a little bit 340 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 9: above average inflation, that feeds directly to the revenue line 341 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 9: and you don't have to produce as much to get 342 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 9: that higher revenue number. So that's why margins have actually 343 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 9: stayed in there in some cases actually widened out. 344 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 6: This sounds like a perfect scenario. It sounds like just 345 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 6: Nirvana investing Nirvana. It's priced as though it's investing Nirvana too. 346 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 6: Though at what point if we priced all of that 347 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 6: in a then sum, that leaves it kind of vulnerable 348 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 6: to anything that doesn't look like what we just got 349 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 6: from Jovis claims. 350 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, at least that's a great point. 351 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 9: And I think a lot of that is priced in 352 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 9: in the here too now, but much of it it's 353 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 9: still not priced in for next year. There's a little 354 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 9: bit of discounting of what the story I just laid 355 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 9: out already. Given where the SMP is twenty two twenty 356 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 9: three times forward, I would say that in this asset 357 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 9: light world that is driven the index, higher multiples are 358 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 9: higher because they're still driving higher revenue growth, And if 359 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 9: you look at the contribution of the tech sector, it's 360 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 9: about forty four percent or so of the market cap 361 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 9: of the SMP, but its earnings contribution is in the thirties. 362 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 7: It's very different than ninety. 363 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 9: Nine and two thousand, when the earnings contribution was almost 364 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 9: one half of that peak. 365 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 6: The investors you speak with, are they more worried about 366 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 6: some sort of downturn in the economy or are they 367 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 6: more worried about missing out in the next leg higher. 368 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 9: You know, they're still worried about the downside scenario. There 369 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 9: still have that frame of mind of the credit crisis, 370 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 9: little frame of mind of what happened in August through 371 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 9: December of twenty eighteen when the Federal Reserve is raising 372 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 9: rates when inflation was below their target. 373 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 7: At that point, and then fast forward. 374 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 9: Into twenty two with the inverted yield curve, and then 375 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 9: the tariff situation in April. So they still have all 376 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 9: of this in their mind and they're comfortable still getting 377 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 9: a decent yield on their cash. 378 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 7: On the flip side. 379 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 9: There are some that are very worried about missing the 380 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 9: next move, particularly as it relates to the infrastructure build 381 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 9: out of artificial intelligence. 382 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 7: We believe there's some room to go there. 383 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 9: We would caution, though, the signs of artificial intelligence and 384 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 9: infrastructure build out peaking are all about the margin, all 385 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 9: about the price side of the equation. 386 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 7: We're not seeing that yet, but we. 387 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 9: Need to watch that closely to understand what the demand 388 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 9: for that will be once all of this is built. 389 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 8: Clients that are concerned about the downside is it because 390 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 8: they think we're in a bubble. 391 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 7: They always talk about bubble. 392 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 9: Number one question I get right now is are we 393 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 9: in a bubble? Are we four different meetings yesterday? 394 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 7: Number one question? 395 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 9: In some cases, in areas that are low quality, that 396 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 9: don't have any revenues, that are built to sky high valuations, 397 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 9: you can argue yes. 398 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 7: In other areas where. 399 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 9: They're still kicking off very good free cash flow. The 400 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 9: answers now, so what's your advice. The advice is diversified portfolio. 401 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 9: I know that sounds like, okay, that's easy, Chris, right, 402 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 9: we talked, But diversification works when you need it the 403 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 9: most and you can still participate. So for us, it's 404 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 9: about having a little bit more non us than you 405 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 9: would traditionally. Have we heard before about potential weeker dollar 406 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 9: week of dollars, probably a fading dollar story, not necessarily 407 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,959 Speaker 9: a week or dollar story, given where growth is for 408 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 9: US relative to the rest of the world and their 409 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 9: deficits relative to ours. Small caps benefiting from a little 410 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 9: bit of lower rates on the short end and potentially 411 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 9: reaccelerating economy mid caps for whatever m and A cycle 412 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 9: is around the corner. And then on the large cap side, 413 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,199 Speaker 9: I think it's two stories. It's the rest that we 414 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 9: always talk about that are starting to rotate a little bit, 415 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 9: you know, a little bit on the value side, those 416 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 9: areas that were starved for capital, like materials. 417 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 7: And energy and others. 418 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 9: We're still overweight financials, We're still overweight industrials, consumer discretionary, 419 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 9: and utilities. We're trying to make sure that we stay. 420 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 7: Balanced where we can but participate in the AI growth story. 421 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: This balance main a little bit ago as well. 422 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:03,719 Speaker 7: Well. It's fortune. 423 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 9: We don't actually have it in our acid allocation schema overall, 424 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 9: but yes, gold is showing some incredibly different signs than 425 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 9: it normally would. Has a negative correlation with treasuries right now, 426 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 9: which a lot of people aren't talking about. 427 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 3: And a positive correlation with risk anssets for the ES. 428 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 7: That's right, and also defensive assets. It's throwing off signs. Again, 429 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 7: it's not perfect. 430 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,160 Speaker 9: But when you get one of the largest central banks 431 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 9: in the world recycling their own foreign reserves and Euro 432 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 9: reserves are not going up, but gold is, that's an 433 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 9: interesting story. 434 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 3: Which you think is behind of that is redominant driver 435 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 3: or just multiple pillars. 436 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,640 Speaker 9: I think it's this regional economic trade zone developments from 437 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 9: this ultra competitive global world we were in for so 438 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 9: long as the world look to the US to fund 439 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 9: their growth. Now with all of that switching, I think 440 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 9: you're going to have to see some of these central 441 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 9: banks diversify their reserve. 442 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 3: Stay with US. 443 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 2: Multiple IMPEG Savanna's coming up after this, Let's turn to tech. 444 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 2: Following weeks of massive investment announcements, there are growing rumplings 445 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 2: of an AI bubble. Ozan Taman of Deutsche Bank struck 446 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 2: En off concerns, saying those crying the loudest are the 447 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 2: ones who missed the triade. Osan, join morning and welcome 448 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 2: to New York. 449 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 10: Wonderful to be here. 450 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 3: So is a bubble when you're not in it? Is that? 451 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 3: The takeaway on this one. 452 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 10: Definitely there is a little bit of bitterness defensiveness. But 453 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 10: that being said, maybe for this show. Right the night 454 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 10: before I held this big Macro dinner, almost thirty c lines, trends, 455 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 10: somwealth funds, h funds, real money, the question round session, 456 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 10: questioning the bubble, questioning that close circle, AI to Nimidia 457 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 10: to Oracle, questioning where we are in the labor cycle. 458 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 10: But then trade idea session, GOLDMP Gold semple longly so 459 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 10: even for me as somebody you know, we exchange messages. 460 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 10: You guys know, it's like being in in the family. 461 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 10: I do believe in the disparity has been a great 462 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 10: call since the April nine fear, but to music to 463 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,120 Speaker 10: this has ears a bit. This is a bit too much. 464 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 10: I sense a bit of a fly. 465 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 5: In the soup. 466 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 10: Even today, like they talked up, they talked about how 467 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 10: do we start again? Read nothing major but red These 468 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 10: memes flying around on Gold on AI. Don't get me wrong. 469 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,199 Speaker 10: I think when I come back either from London or 470 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 10: here in December, I think we'll still be talking possibly 471 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 10: about Gold, about AI, about naz Dak. But fear of 472 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,400 Speaker 10: missing out is turning into a bit of orange seng. 473 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 2: Can I just put on this a little bit the 474 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 2: relationship between risk and God, what the traditional relationship typically 475 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 2: is and why is developed into something else. Why is 476 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 2: this the long call on both gold and the nasdag 477 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:49,400 Speaker 2: what's the relationship between the two? 478 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 4: Now? 479 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 10: Very good question. It's working on risk on and risk 480 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 10: of John. So obviously orthodogs at this moment it should 481 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 10: work because finally they're not exactly going seven mins way, 482 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 10: but they are cut, so that's going to help cold. 483 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 10: But before that, because of everything going on in geopolitics Russia, Ukraine, 484 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 10: center banks feeling much better when they hold their reserves 485 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 10: in gold, and it got a big trigger besides that, 486 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 10: as you know, FX at the end of the day 487 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 10: is storytelling. You need the dollars, but you need the 488 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 10: other side of the story as well. Even though i'm 489 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 10: dotsche Bank, I share some of your anxiety on what's 490 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 10: going on in Europe. On engine of Germany. We can 491 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,239 Speaker 10: go into our deer Island, UK, Japan, China, laggers. So 492 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 10: where do you go? You don't like the dollars for 493 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 10: very understandable reasons. Soft dollar is working, but you need somebody, 494 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 10: some horse that keeps running, and that's gold. 495 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 6: Well, this sort of goes to the question of what 496 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 6: can possibly disrupt these trades, and right now the feeling 497 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 6: is that the only thing that could really disrupt some 498 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 6: of the long tech trade would be earnings that didn't 499 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 6: come in more positively. Do you see it the other way? 500 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 6: The isnt that actually more negativity in the economic growth 501 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 6: picture has the bigger potential to be that disruptive factor 502 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 6: to cause three percent to climb? 503 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 10: I do actually because November nineteen, even if Nvidia is 504 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 10: so called missus, we can find another good story in 505 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 10: another earnings. But all of us, you know how these 506 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 10: markets are narrative, markets are storytelling. Three more days like this, 507 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,919 Speaker 10: Jenatan will start opening or will open the show a 508 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 10: little bit differently. 509 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 6: So please tell us how he's going to open the show. 510 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 10: No, he's going You're going to talk about these Orangstein's 511 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 10: more and more. Also, one thing that I want to 512 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:30,199 Speaker 10: keep in the radar because Macro, we need to talk 513 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 10: about races as well. Spreme Court, these terrors talking about 514 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 10: narratives all the way from January to April. Terrace was 515 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 10: the bad guy or you know he's going to do 516 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 10: this that lightizer nineteen thirties, and because of that, Ty 517 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 10: was going to go to five percent, Euros going to 518 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 10: zero point ninety five all of a sudden, Now terrors 519 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 10: are the good guys. Maybe he was right on certain 520 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 10: things reveny, big revenue generation. On Twitter, my dear friend 521 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 10: towardson Slow talking about might research is talking about it. 522 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 10: So if Supreme Court blocks, that's off the left field. 523 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 10: I know, and Mary will say maybe three oh one, 524 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 10: they have their plan bis et cetera. But that's going 525 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,120 Speaker 10: to take four to five months, and that can finally 526 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 10: move the long end. 527 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 6: I love how we don't even have to ask the question, 528 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 6: so I. 529 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 3: Already knows exactly which I love. 530 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: It's fantastic, champion, Okay, fantastic. 531 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 6: I will just say though, that this is one reason 532 00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 6: why people keep buying big tech, and even though they're 533 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 6: worried about valuations, that's the one area of growth that's 534 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 6: kind of empowered really the US economy out of potentially 535 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 6: what could have been a recession otherwise. Isn't that the 536 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 6: only clean trade right now? Given all the hair on 537 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 6: the narratives that you're talking about. 538 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 10: Agreed with gold Aside. Gold as well works on risk, 539 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 10: on risk golf. That's why I even look. I'm a 540 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 10: macro guy even if we have a and I pull 541 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 10: people and they all go for higher the lower end 542 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 10: of that was three percent. If we get for this 543 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 10: or that isn't three percent quaration on SMP, my Binkie 544 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 10: will probably come out on the show and say buy 545 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 10: the dip. As important as Binky retail who want this 546 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 10: day or another beat the professionals since April nine, that 547 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 10: big panic day on buying those dips, will continue to 548 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 10: believe so that even my scenario Supreme Court stopping the tariffs, etcetera, 549 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 10: we need something else. We need more deep sick moments. 550 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 10: We need to question all this closed circle between open 551 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,120 Speaker 10: eyes and oracles and naividia. I'm not sure we're there. 552 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 10: Maybe two three percent correction, but doomsday I don't see. 553 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 8: But the Supreme Court stopping the terriffs, won't there be 554 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 8: bolish for equities. 555 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 5: I hear you. 556 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 10: At the end of the day, they will say, look, 557 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 10: then they'll have to do more physically, even more fiscal loosening. 558 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 10: The equities may find a way to see that as 559 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 10: glass helpful as well. That risk would be the bigger 560 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 10: trigger for the long ends. We came into summer end 561 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 10: of summer waiting for these famous transforments everywhere, UK fans, Japan, 562 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 10: of course US, big beautiful bill. It happened for four 563 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,640 Speaker 10: hours on September two, led by my eye. And then 564 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 10: look what the long ends are doing now? So steep 565 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 10: in their crowds. Do you hear them now? Much more 566 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 10: quiet on these studios, on the macrod in the roundtables. 567 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 10: Maybe they're waiting for something new and that can be 568 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 10: that can be their catalysts in US. 569 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 8: When you have these dinners and you're talking to investors, 570 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 8: as you say, real money, are they concerned about what 571 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 8: we're seeing out of the US government and taking stakes? 572 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 8: And then basically companies may be wanting to have a 573 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 8: better reputation with this administration considering even investing in those 574 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 8: companies the US government cares about. 575 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 10: Very good question I can be to hear you Intel 576 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 10: Apple right, they do so because of that, maybe we 577 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 10: have a world in which Namedia's keep rising, but though 578 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 10: it also keeps eroding a litive its so in that sense, 579 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 10: it's not exactly attached Reagan world, is it? So? For 580 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:57,199 Speaker 10: many different reasons, this institutional decay difference approach to us 581 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 10: seeing more how do I put it? Hung Turkey, Argentina, 582 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 10: like developments in Tragity Center Bank working to get together in. 583 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,200 Speaker 7: Our USA as well. 584 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 10: That makes people hedge more. The important age Issios my 585 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 10: partner and success George Rados, I think a very important piece. 586 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 10: Everybody was questioning, Okay Ozan, you guys are saying sell 587 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 10: the dollar, but you know, if Nimidia, Microsoft Meta keeps 588 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 10: going higher, that has to help the King Kong dollars. Well, no, 589 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 10: if they are hedging. What if they're heging when they 590 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 10: buy their NI media, Maybe we can have this equivalrium 591 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 10: in which dollar remains soft and ny Media continues to 592 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:32,719 Speaker 10: go higher. 593 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 2: As and just to find a question, what's the difference 594 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 2: between appatcient to take risks right now? Comparing the investors 595 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 2: you've dined with this week in New York to what 596 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 2: you've experienced on a weekly basis in London. 597 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 10: Beautiful question much more US centered doesn't care that much 598 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 10: about you know, France, very is Germany when that stimulus coming, 599 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 10: et cetera. I would say it's still almost sucked into 600 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 10: the equity and credit trade. Look at Oracle yesterday, three 601 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 10: three basis one conversation. 602 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 7: That's it. 603 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 10: So whether they like it or not, they almost get 604 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 10: sucked into the whether I give it Udan signs or not, 605 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,879 Speaker 10: into equity and credits much more quiet many on the 606 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 10: rates and FAX. Unfortunately I'm macro guy. I need to 607 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 10: talk about woltilty. But the three at the moment is 608 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,439 Speaker 10: Waltioty is on its is on its needes and they 609 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 10: need we need some supplace. Otherwise FX and rate three 610 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 10: that's contune to sell those cells. 611 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 3: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. 612 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 2: The Treasury Secretary scale best and reaffirming America's commitments supporting 613 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 2: Argentine President Javi A. Melee, praising his tireless efforts to 614 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 2: make urgency in a great again at a gala in 615 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 2: New York. Joining us now to extend the conversation, Haidi 616 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 2: creeper Redica of the Council on Formulations, highly welcome back 617 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 2: to the program. Just want to build on some of 618 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 2: the thoughts of scorn Bess and the Treasury Secretary who 619 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 2: talked about supporting the economic reforms of Argentina. Can we 620 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 2: talk about the regional politics why the reforms of Argentina 621 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 2: is so important to this White House. 622 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: So I think that Malay has really made some tremendous 623 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 1: progress with an economy that has been a chronic defaulter 624 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: and has had had suffered with huge problems over many decades. 625 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: So he's brought inflation down beyond where anybody really could 626 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: have expected and stabilized the currency. So I think everybody 627 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 1: was really hoping that the reforms would actually take but 628 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 1: Malay lost lost support in a regional election recently, and 629 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: there's an upcoming election on the twenty sixth of October 630 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 1: where if Malay loses support in this nationwide midterm, then 631 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 1: you'll have a very difficult time pushing his reforms forward. 632 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 1: And the markets know that, and so he's faced a 633 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 1: lot of instability in the past. In the past several 634 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 1: days last week they ran through about a billion plus 635 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: of their reserves just defending the currency. And so I 636 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 1: think really the ambition is for this White House to 637 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,239 Speaker 1: step in between now and October twenty sixth, give the 638 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: markets short term stability whatever it takes moment and put 639 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: the devil is really in the details with the use 640 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, because that's actually tricky. It's 641 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 1: tricky in any circumstance, but Argentina is a very unique circumstance. 642 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 8: Well, Also, I sat down with the Treasury Secretary in 643 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 8: Argentina in April when he was there to meet Mille, 644 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 8: and this wasn't on the table then. And when the 645 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 8: treasure Secretary talks about it being negotiated, the Treasury can't 646 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 8: give a swap line on the federal reserve could And 647 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 8: if it is going to be alone, then Argentina's Congress 648 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:47,719 Speaker 8: needs to vote on it. 649 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: So what exactly is the US willing to do so, 650 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: I mean that's the big question. And as you rightly 651 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 1: point out, the FED gives swap lines, the Treasury does not, 652 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 1: in it does not use the Exchange Stabilization Fund for 653 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: that purpose. There are conversations if you do use that 654 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: twenty billion ish of liquid assets that are that are 655 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: within the ESF, then you know, the US government has 656 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: a process to basically price the risk of the use 657 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 1: of those funds. 658 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 7: And that's a conversation. 659 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 1: This is a little in the weeds, but that's a 660 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: conversation with omb how do you price this risk? And 661 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 1: are we going to put this on the table for 662 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: Argentina And how are we actually going to do that? 663 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 7: Are we going to make the same bed? 664 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 1: I mean, this echoes you know, what Trump Trump one 665 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: did in supporting a massive IMF program for Argentina back 666 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen and the imflint fifty billion to Argentina 667 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 1: and took a big political risk and sort of lost 668 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: that risk. And so the question is if we do this, 669 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: how do we structure to protect taxpayers? How do we 670 00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,719 Speaker 1: do it in a way that is useful for Argentina 671 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 1: without putting taxpayer taxpayer funds on the line that it 672 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: might lose, and you know, and and and really at 673 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: the end of the day, how can we do this? 674 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 1: The swap line, I think is just terminology to make 675 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: it simple for the you know, for the headline, but 676 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 1: this is actually a very complicated financial engineering exercise that's 677 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 1: going on. 678 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 8: Well, China has a swap line with Argentina. Is this 679 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 8: also the US maybe countering China in South America? 680 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 7: Absolutely? 681 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,719 Speaker 1: I mean that's part of it. Not only is this 682 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 1: relationship that I think is is real and substantial between 683 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 1: the Trump administration and Malay, but China has an eighteen 684 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: billion R and B swap line and it's and it 685 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:55,960 Speaker 1: could be you know, this, this could be wound down. 686 00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 1: I don't think that they that China. I think that 687 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: the US would really like to see itself be the 688 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 1: dominant player in providing any kind of of support that 689 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 1: Argentina needs. Argentina also is very resource rich, and I 690 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,560 Speaker 1: think you know this would be this would be a 691 00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: strategic play as well for the US in a very 692 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: strategic part of the world, Latin America, where it was 693 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,600 Speaker 1: pointed out we don't have a lot of great relationships. 694 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 695 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, angiopolitics. You can watch the show live 696 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to nine 697 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or 698 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the Bloomberg 699 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.