1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Right now, I want 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: to go over get over to Andrews Pearson Um. He 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: is the chief investment Officer of Global fixed Income at 9 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: New Vene. And Andrews, I want to first get your 10 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: take on the jobs report. Um, it was pretty fascinating. 11 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: It was a miss, of course, but still an ad 12 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: of more than half a million jobs in the US economy. Now, 13 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: John John said, always very interesting, a lot of focus 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: on the markets, and at the core, I would say 15 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: it's it's more of the same year we had, okay, 16 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: not grade numbers once again, some some mixed messages for 17 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: the market to kind of digest. And I think he 18 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: just kind of seeing that on the ten year today 19 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: and you partly given bats in the yield move post 20 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: to strong DP numbers and generally the market is expecting 21 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: strong job numbers and we haven't quite been getting that, 22 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: so so we're seeing a little bit less progress in 23 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: the labor market. Um, that means less pressure for the 24 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: said to remove accommodation, and that means a lower tenure. 25 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: So continue to have these mixed numbers. That makes it 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: quite tough ultimately for the markets to digest what's going 27 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: on here, and this debate around growth versus inflation really continues. 28 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: Anders I have to say, I don't envy you fixed 29 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 1: income guys. I don't know where you go to get yield. 30 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: Where do I go to get some yield here in 31 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: the fixed income markets? How much risk do I have 32 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: to take to get a reasonably decent return? I know, 33 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: it's it's certainly a dilemma for all of us, and 34 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: something investors are constantly asking us around. And you know, 35 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: at the core, we we maintain its vally const aft 36 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: to view and we're comfortable keeping you know, a modest 37 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: risk overweight stands here and continue to focus on credit 38 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: and spread sectors. Um. You know, with the backdrop of 39 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: this slowly improving economic kind of environment, fundamental still improving nicely. 40 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: We still have, you know, in my mind, nice support 41 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: from the Fed and the central banks, are being delvish 42 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: and patient and not look into race rates to too early. UM. 43 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: That combined with UH stretched but still okay evaluations, we 44 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: kind of call it we're priced for reality, nice class 45 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: for perfection. So we're kind of expecting spreads to have 46 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,839 Speaker 1: more of a range found kind of type being there 47 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: for a bit longer, so so that really offers up 48 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: an attractive terror trade or a cowpund clipping kind of 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: cup environment, so that we're kind of seeing that playing 50 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: out for the next several months and throughout the rest 51 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: of the year. So so to answer your question, we're 52 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: comfortable kind of keeping more of a US overweight and 53 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 1: going down into the rating spectrum UH and really liked 54 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: asset classes to offer this a little more of the 55 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: reads for yielding and so a couple of areas that 56 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: we've been focused on, our leverage loans and preferreds loverage loans, 57 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: you know, are definitely benefiting from all of these trans Fundamentally, 58 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: the pictures improving lower defaults are happening or or kind 59 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: of seeing. Given the economic rebound and the loans, you 60 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: have a nice feel pick up spread profile, particularly when 61 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: you compare to other fixed income sectors and and a 62 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: key aspect for us right now is as well as that, 63 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: um you know, loans and preferred generally have floating rate 64 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: aspects of it. So historically fliving rate, uh, you know, 65 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: performance very well in the writing rate environments. Um So, 66 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: that's that's a key area that we're we're finding value. 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: And then finally on the loan side in particular, we're 68 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: seeing strong technical support. We've seen roughly twenty one straight 69 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: weeks of inflows, been coming up to about twenty three 70 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: billion dollars of inflows for for the low space, so 71 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: very nice momentum. We expect that to continue for the 72 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: rest of the year. Um So, loans in particulars and 73 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: expected to be a solid perform in this kind of environment. 74 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: All right, Anders, thank you so much for joining us. 75 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: Really appreciate getting your perspective on those fixed income markets. 76 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: Anders Parson. He is the chief investment Officer of Global 77 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: fixed Income at Nouvene. Well, Matt, A couple of years ago, 78 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: our next guest showed me an app called flight Radar 79 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: twenty four kind of tracks airlines, air flights kind of 80 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: all around the world. So now you can offer round 81 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: your house. Yeah, you can just find me looking up 82 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: at the sky, then down at the app seeing where 83 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: this plane is going. George Ferguson, senior aerospace, defense and 84 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: airlines analysts. He's responsible for that, He's for Blueberg Intelligence. 85 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: He's been covering the airline business for decades. Absolutely an 86 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: expert on Wall Street. George, it seems like they're a 87 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: lot more plane in the air. Um, give us a 88 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: sense of where we are in terms of overall air 89 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: traffic as we head into the busy summer season and 90 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: how are things progressing? Hey, so thanks for having me. Yet, Um, 91 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: what we're starting to see is that the level of 92 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: capacities that the airlines are flying is approaching, if not 93 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: exceeding l So that's a that's a great thing. Um. 94 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 1: The load factors, from what we're hearing, are are quite good. 95 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: I think they're I Frank, I think there's you know, 96 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: sort of eighties and nineties and on their airlines, probably 97 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: creating a little bit of stress with the flying public. 98 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: What we still see is it's a very leisure oriented bounce, right, 99 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: and so that's keeping says depressed at bit. So even 100 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: as we see this increasing capacity, increasing load factor, the 101 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: revenue numbers aren't coming up as strongly. I think we 102 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: really need to see the business traveler come back can 103 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: And to me, it looks a bit like things have 104 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: spread out on the bounds right. So we originally thought 105 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: that you would get answered a really heavy bounce in 106 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: the core summer season July August. You know, it looks 107 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: to me like people are getting a vaccination and going 108 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: a vacation right away. You know, they all have thirty 109 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: days a vacation built up, so they get they get vaccinated, 110 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: they get comfortable and desought. Hey, we're gonna go in 111 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: May or in June on a vacation and disappear for 112 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: a week or two and get on an airplane. But 113 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: that's what I's looking to us right now. Absolutely on 114 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: a vacation front, for sure. On the business front, I 115 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: wonder what kind of developments you're seeing. Yes, still like 116 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: I said that there were still being business is coming 117 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: back slowly. You know, even me and my business gets very, 118 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: very driven by air travel. Most of the people in 119 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: my business should be willing to take meetings and ready 120 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: to go to competences because we're the we're the believers 121 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: in air travel. And you know, I'm starting to see 122 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: physical competences. Uh, you know, late to Q early three 123 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: q they're getting some some decent numbers of people there. 124 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: But I think we're on the early side of it. 125 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: As the aerospace aviation people, we don't think business travel 126 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: is really gonna come back well into sort of probably 127 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: deep into week q UH. And you know, we really 128 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: think we still see it sort of being you know, 129 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: maybe it gets back to sixt ish of last year 130 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: UM in sort of three Q four q UM, but 131 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: we don't think it's sort of surging back to of 132 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen levels until we get into into we think 133 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: it's going to be slow. George, can I ask you 134 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: as one of the believers. Everyone who's connected to the 135 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: airline industry swears by UM the ventilation system says you're 136 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: unlikely to get sick in an aircraft, But all normal 137 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: people know that when you go on a long haul flight, 138 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: you're gonna get sick. Why is that? Why is there 139 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: that discrepancy? You know, I think that of course, whenever 140 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: you're stuck in in tight spaces and a whole bunch 141 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: of other people, I think, you know, human beings immediately 142 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: get concerned about transfer of cold and whatever else. But look, 143 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: I'll tell you you probably don't know anything about the 144 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: HVAC system in in the office you're going to every day, 145 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,559 Speaker 1: the restaurant you go to, and taking nothing in your house. 146 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: All right, and I'll do you. The airplane HVAC system 147 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: is looked at more frequently than all those places and 148 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: has a bunch of fresh air coming through it. So 149 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: I'm believing that one, to be honest, George. How about 150 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: international trouble, that's that's a part of the business as 151 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: really profitable for airlines, But it just seems like that's 152 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: I mean, given how different parts of the world are 153 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: dealing with the pandemic, that might be the last thing 154 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: that comes along. It's a mess, I mean, and that's 155 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: the other challenge we really see, sort of getting everything 156 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: moving again, getting that high that high margin international chapel back. Yeah. 157 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I was looking today Australia doesn't 158 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: want anybody to travel into also early it's still you 159 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: know right now, uh, you know there's issues in the UK. 160 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: Was with the people traveling in India. Looks good for 161 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: a while, went bad and now you know you don't 162 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: want to be traveling to India. There's varying regulations or 163 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: not between the US and Europe and back with US, 164 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: but has been our Europeans that has been It's a mess, 165 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: and different countries had sort of different views on the violence, 166 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: different risk asiances, different willingness to require people to disclose vaccines. 167 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: We don't think you see a really good international travel 168 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: scene until mid next year. We think it's the earliest. 169 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: We think it will be a week one this year. 170 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: And what we're seeing is the countries that have been 171 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: more open, you know, for the US, Latin America, South America, 172 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,599 Speaker 1: that's where that's where we're seeing the flights go to. 173 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: That's a very leisure market, So that's a challenge. It's 174 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: a mess. Which I were in the States, I would 175 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 1: go to South America on vacation instead of trying to 176 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: figure out which European country will let me in even 177 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: if I'm fully vaccinated. It truly is a mess. George, 178 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. George ferguson their senior Aerospace, 179 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: Defense and Airlines analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now let's get 180 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: over to Lena Chelius Eva. She is Bloomberg Intelligence senior 181 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: US economists and she can tell us what happened with 182 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: this job's report. So Elena, let's start with the overall 183 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: number here. It wasn't um it wasn't just a miss. 184 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: It was a big miss. If you look at the 185 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: whisper number on the other hand, it's on the right 186 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: side of zero. And we were about consensus and we 187 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: missed even more. I would say true Bloomberg intelligence a right, 188 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg economics. Yes, I think it's just uh, just showing 189 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 1: us that it's the inertia on the board of potential 190 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,239 Speaker 1: workers who remain inhibited to rejoin the ranks of employment. 191 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: So whether it's unwillingness to lose those expended unemployment fenessy, 192 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: or it's some sort of inability to find proper childcare 193 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: um or just you know, simply being comfortable well with 194 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: living on a smaller income. All these factors contribute to 195 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 1: limiting people rejoining the labor force. And we saw a 196 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: declining labor force participation and uh, that was the MAZE report. 197 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: I think we will continue some inertia going forward in 198 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: June and July, but maybe we will see some acceleration. Nevertheless, 199 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: because the augmented unemployment benefits expired in the middle of 200 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: this month, in half of the U S states that 201 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: could help motivate more people to get back into the 202 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: labor force. I think it will just take some time 203 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: for um job gains to accelerate to uh, you know, 204 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: really help close that huge gap in employment in the 205 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: big eating of the crisis. All right, So Elena, a 206 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 1: couple of months in a row where we the job 207 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: numbers came in below forecast. So is this a problem 208 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: potentially with the labor market or is it simply a 209 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: function of economists really don't know how are having a 210 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: tough time forecasting an economy that's reopening from essentially a standstill. Well, 211 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 1: it depends on what you put a new model. If 212 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 1: you look at driver us of demand, they are shoulge in. 213 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 1: Look at the job splentiful of for example, indexes from 214 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: the Conference Board Servy, look at claims. These things are 215 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 1: telling us that labor market growth should accelerate at a 216 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: very high rate. But you also need to look at 217 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: things that limits that kept that job growth and unfortunately 218 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: the really very um few precedents in the past that 219 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: help us forecast those things. But just based on demand, 220 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: you know, job gains should be higher than a million 221 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: Look at the previous year for example, like at this 222 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: period of time. Just a year ago, we saw gains 223 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:14,359 Speaker 1: in two millions, like exceeding two millions five million jobs 224 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: coming out of the initial UH wave of UH the virus. 225 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: So you would think, Okay, the economy is in a 226 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: much better shape at this point, so we should see 227 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: a much higher gains. But people adjust it to the 228 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: new reality, and right now it is really the supply 229 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: of workers that is holding a most significant progress in 230 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 1: the labor market. Lenna, We've heard two very smart people, 231 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: Gina Martin Adams and Tom Keane both talk about margin compression. 232 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: What do they mean? What Why are employers having to 233 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: reduce margins um in order to get employees back at work. Well, 234 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: they have to raise wages to attract them, right, That's 235 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: that's the supply issue UH by itself. So you really 236 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: need to attract workers who are just sitting on the sideline. 237 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: I think that we may see some temporary pickup in compensation, 238 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: but I don't really believe that it will start a 239 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: new wave of wage acceleration at a fundamental level. I think, 240 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: you know, still, the slack in the labor market is 241 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: so big at seven points point six million people that 242 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it will weigh on 243 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: wage growth. It's it may spike uh temporarily just informal 244 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: temporarily bonuses or things like that to attract workers back 245 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: into the labor force, but um fundamentally going forward, I 246 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: don't see a big increase in wages. So, Lena, I 247 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: was kind of skeptical when the argument was raised last 248 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: month that, you know, the reason that the number missed 249 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: so much again two six or six thousand versus a 250 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: consensus of you know, close to a million, that's because 251 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: people weren't incentive to go back to the workforce because 252 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: they were receiving such generous unappoyment benefits. But now we've 253 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: got a couple of months of data points here, is 254 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: that a rational economic argument? You think that actually holds water. Well, 255 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: it's one of the factors that is holding uh more 256 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: growth back. I think we will find an answer to 257 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: that in June and July because a lot of those 258 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: are augmented unemployment benefits expiring, so at least we will 259 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: clear that hurdle. But there are other things to look at, 260 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: and I think, you know, being a model of a toddler, 261 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: I can certainly see why a lot of women are 262 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: not going back into the label force. You cannot simply 263 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: find the proper childcare. You're scared to send your child 264 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: back uh to uh you know, to child care center 265 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: or back to school for in person learning. So with 266 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 1: more vaccinations and and even like if you can get 267 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: your kids vaccinated by by stay September October, that will 268 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: help a lot to in terms of acceleration and job growth. 269 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: And another thing is just simple inertion on the part 270 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: of potential entrance into the labor force. We can probably 271 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: by now figured out how to leave on one income 272 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: instead of two, for example, and some people will just 273 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: stay in that state. So it will be very hard 274 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: to draw back all the people that were lost from 275 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: the labor force. And as the Secretary of Labor said 276 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: that just just now a few minutes ago, you cannot 277 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: slip a switch. So it will take some time to 278 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: for people to get back, maybe at least three months, right, 279 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: I mean we're going into summer and if you are 280 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: receiving unemployment benefits, the kids are going to be out 281 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: of school for the next three months. And you figured 282 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: it out in terms of your um you know, in 283 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: terms of the budget. Why even bother looking for a 284 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: job until September other than to please you know, the 285 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: person at the work center. Well, that just tells you 286 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: that maybe the summer will not be as hot as 287 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: UH would be expected by all this surveys and increased 288 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: reopening demand. So it may take some time for UH 289 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: job growth to accelerate. So even though you know GDP 290 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: growth will probably hit in the second quarter, in the 291 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: third quarter of the years, it will take much longer 292 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: for employment growth to accelerate. And that is a key 293 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: reason why the set is not going to rush into 294 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:56,239 Speaker 1: ending as it purchases that the pace that is at 295 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: the current pea. I think tapering talks will probably commenced 296 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: towards the end of the summer, but the actual tapering 297 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: process will not start until twenty two. Elena did that 298 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 1: the data we're seeing here in the labor front to 299 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: side impact your GDP forecast at Bloomerk Economics, not GDP forecast, 300 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: because for GDP forecast and the implications from the the 301 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: roll's report, we usually look at ours work and ours 302 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: worked as quite strong, so UH and quite consistent with 303 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: our forecast for the second quarter GDP growth in the 304 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: vicinity of ten percent. I think that still holds what 305 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: about Carl's forecast at Bloomberg Intelligence. What is girl, folks, 306 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: I don't know. I thought you guys worked together. I 307 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: just I'm learning about this separation. I had no idea. Well, 308 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: that is uh an interesting situation. And actually Carl was 309 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: a little bit more pessimistic on on that, so I 310 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: I really miss him. I really miss his judgment. All right, 311 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: So Lena, what do you think we're going to hear 312 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: from that Sherman Powell over the coming weeks and months? Um, 313 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: I guess this gives him some ammunition to kind of say, see, 314 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: we know what we're doing. Well, so the fat I 315 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: think really knows what they're doing. They they are being patient, 316 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: and I think that will hold this status square and 317 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: we will not see any uh you know, major updates 318 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 1: in terms of tapering or of course no interest rate 319 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: increases talk for a very long time. So our forecast 320 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: holds for tapering to start in twenty two and UH, 321 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: for that, we do need to see a string of 322 00:19:53,359 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: accelerating job games going into the late summer. So that chair, well, 323 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: can um talk about uh, you know, some progress, some 324 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: significant progress towards uh the FED schools and dual mandate 325 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 1: and inflation. We're gonna get CPI A numbers again next week. Uh. 326 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: Probably still acceleration in the pace of inflation. That will 327 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: not change their stance. That may push people back to 328 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: work though, because we're seeing now you, Lena, that food 329 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: prices are up to their highest level in a decade. Um. 330 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: Housing obviously off the charts. Uh you know, car transportation 331 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: costs rising with gasoline at the pump. So I guess 332 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a catalyst while we're still on 333 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: these unemployment uh generous unemployment, relatively generous unemployment, um um, Uh, 334 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,880 Speaker 1: don't you get about don't forget about the savings, those 335 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: extra accumulated savings over them of the crisis. I think 336 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: people will be is slightly indifferent to all this, uh way, 337 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: well to all this price increases over the course of 338 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: the summer. Well, they still have those savings and they 339 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: still get some of those benefits, but a steams uh 340 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 1: payments kind of fate into the end of the summer, 341 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: we will see some deterioration in the purchasing power, and 342 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: then those price increases will stink. All right, Elena, thank 343 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us to really appreciate it. 344 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: As always Elena Bloomberg, senior US Economists, giving her thoughts 345 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: on the May jobs report. All right, let's check in 346 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 1: right now with Bloomberg opinion columnist Tim O'Brien. He is 347 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: writing about the success of Zoom. I mean, um, we 348 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: all now zoom each other, regardless of whether we're actually 349 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: using Zoom video communications technology. You just call it that, 350 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: like Kleenex or hampers, right. So, Um, like Google, we 351 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: google things and we zoom people. Um. Tim, it's interesting 352 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 1: you write in your column that we that we say 353 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: this because the one of the biggest companies in the world, 354 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: Microsoft has had technology to do this kind of thing 355 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: Skype for much longer than Zoom has been around. And yet, 356 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 1: as you put it, Zoom left Skype in its dust. 357 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: How why Micro Microsoft had a product that was also 358 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: a verb, right, we used to say skyped me instead 359 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: of I'll zoom with you. It just shows how dangerous 360 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,239 Speaker 1: it might be to have your your company's name put 361 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 1: in the Oxford English Dictionary. Um. I think you know 362 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: this is an example of I think not only Skype 363 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 1: but also Internet Explore, which I addressed in the column 364 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: as two products owned by a tech titan that was 365 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: unable to either preserve the market share they had when 366 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 1: it developed or bought them and and largely I think 367 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: because it was out of sync with what it needed 368 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: to do to create a competitive product. And I think 369 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: the technology industry is full of examples of this in which, 370 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: you know, companies can't maintain leads for a long time 371 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: because there's such a premiacy paste and utility, quality and innovation, 372 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: and if you can't keep up, it doesn't matter if 373 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: you've got micro Soft, deep pockets and expertise. In some cases, 374 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: you can really get shunted into the what to the 375 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 1: side of the road. And and we've seen this now 376 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 1: happen with Zoom obviously. Yeah, and we see this all 377 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 1: the time and technology, and we hear about it from 378 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs founders of these companies. They're they're wary, you know, 379 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: they want to take the big takeout deal, the big money, 380 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: the big payday from you know, a Microsoft or Google, 381 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: but they really are fearful of losing, you know, that 382 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: edge that made them such a disruptor in the first place. 383 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: And your column points out that's kind of what we 384 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: see here in a for examples from Microsoft, right. You know, 385 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: if you think back to two about two thousand and 386 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: one or so, Internet Explorer had at least a share 387 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: of the Brown Cowser market and today that is a 388 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: less than one and Google Google Chrome it has well 389 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 1: over six of the global browser market. And Google developed 390 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 1: a better product. It was lighter, loaded, faster. Developers preferred it, 391 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 1: it played well on mobile. And some of this is 392 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: is a legacy of of Microsoft zone history. Microsoft was 393 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,399 Speaker 1: a world beater or when it introduced Windows as the 394 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: leading PC desktop application, and everything Microsoft built was really, 395 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: in a way tethered to the desktop, and the company 396 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: got sideswiped by the web and then sideswiped by mobile, 397 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 1: and it wasn't able, i think, to create consumer products 398 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 1: that did as well on mobile as a company like Google. 399 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: And you saw that more board out in the in 400 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 1: the Web Browser Awards. And and now with video conferencing, 401 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: you know, Microsoft has a great product, Microsoft Team. Uh. 402 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: It's a great video conferencing tool that's built up a 403 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: big audience. But it's a corporate tool more than it's 404 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: a consumer tool. And and Zoom obviously took the world 405 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: by store during the pandemic. Had Microsoft stayed out its game, 406 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: it paid over eight billion dollars to buy Skype, and 407 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: I doubt they feel they've gotten the return on that investment, 408 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: to say the least. But had they done it right, 409 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: they would have been beautifully positioned when the pandemic rolled 410 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: around to have a product that consumers would have embraced 411 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 1: on My is it maybe not possible to always create 412 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: the best product? I mean, I think about this a 413 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 1: lot in terms of music. Tim like more autos, right, 414 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 1: you know auto the auto industry, like the back of 415 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 1: your hand. Yes, But well, I you know there are 416 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 1: examples there that are well, I guess it's all a 417 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,639 Speaker 1: matter of taste. But if I listened to Derek and 418 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 1: the Domino's Leila, it's great from start to finish. It's 419 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: like an unbelievable record. And if you think, why doesn't 420 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 1: another band come out with a record that's as good 421 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: or better and they just can't write, I wonder why 422 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 1: can't Internet Explorer be as good as Chrome? Um? Maybe 423 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,119 Speaker 1: Chrome just wrote that perfect song and you know they 424 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: got lucky. Well, I think luck is a factor. I mean, 425 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 1: I think Google was positioned at the time to really 426 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: be a present for for both the mobile and the 427 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: web revolution in a way that Microsoft couldn't because of 428 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 1: its own legacies. Has happened the companies in industry after industry, 429 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: you know, we see it on the auto industry with 430 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 1: electric vehicles, right, Tesla has been positioned to be a 431 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 1: world leader in e V. Whether or not it consustained 432 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: that over time is one thing. But they also as 433 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 1: a company or positioned to take advantage of a trend 434 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: with the big the big two auto makers couldn't jump 435 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: on a Tim, thanks so much for joining us a 436 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: fascinating column. Tim O'Brien, Senior Columns for Bloomberg Opinion has 437 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 1: got a fascinating column out today, just kind of looking 438 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: at Zoom, looking at Skype and Microsoft, word to Microsoft, 439 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 1: kind of go wrong where they lost, uh that leading 440 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,120 Speaker 1: position in the video conference business to Zoom, which we've 441 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: all become accustomed to, uh here over the last year 442 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: and a half. And you can read all of Tim's 443 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 1: stuff and all the good stuff from Bloomberg Opinion at 444 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion, or if you're sitting in 445 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: front of one of those great Bloomberg terminals, just type 446 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: in O, P, I N go and get some really 447 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 1: great work from Bloomberg Opinion. This is bloombergon. Thanks for 448 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 449 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 450 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 451 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 1: Miller three. Put on Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at 452 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us 453 00:27:58,720 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Great