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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pot all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five forty Cody five

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Speaker 3: fifty and.

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Speaker 2: The kick as block the college football world stundar, Oh

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Speaker 2: my goodness.

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Speaker 4: He stumbled and football.

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Speaker 2: The lateral turn a counter on the inside.

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Speaker 4: Don't you believe I'm not gonna table off the field

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Speaker 4: to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the dog. What's

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Speaker 2: up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the Week four college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 2: Stucky in joining me as always is and Wilson. The

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Speaker 2: slates are going to start to get better and better,

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Speaker 2: starting to learn more and more about these teams. It's

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Speaker 2: all uphill from here, my friend, how goes it?

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Speaker 4: It's time we can start finally using our data. Like

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Speaker 4: you know, we get three data points, We're about to

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Speaker 4: get a fourth data point. This is a very quality slate.

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Speaker 4: The Tennessee Oklahoma game, the USC Michigan is just going

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Speaker 4: to be bonkers. It's going to be great.

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Speaker 2: I probably going to go one more week before I

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Speaker 2: truly settle into using the data because you know, we'll

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Speaker 2: have four games and a lot of these teams have

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Speaker 2: played like fcs and it's hard to really gauge, you know,

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Speaker 2: and take anything from those games. The biggest thing that

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Speaker 2: I'm struggling with I have to be so much more

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Speaker 2: aggressive in my power rating updates because these teams are

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Speaker 2: completely new. Rosters do one to eighties knowing that, Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's okay to adjust this team way down early in

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Speaker 2: the season, even with a few data points, because this

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Speaker 2: roster is completely different. The good thing is, once we

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Speaker 2: get a number of data points, easier to kind of

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Speaker 2: plot where these teams are and what they're where their

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Speaker 2: strengths and weaknesses are, and we can start to rely

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Speaker 2: more on matchup based analysis, which is where I think

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Speaker 2: both of us thrive. Yeah, it's just a new college

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Speaker 2: worle world. You see the Marshall coach Charles huff he

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Speaker 2: was offering Ohio State players all you can eat anil

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Speaker 2: deal from if they came down to Huntington at Tutor's

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Speaker 2: Biscuit World. Was it? There's one in Lexington, you better

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Speaker 2: get down there. What the hell?

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Speaker 5: I feel good about the players we have. I would

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Speaker 5: love to have some of those guys from Ohio State too,

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Speaker 5: So if they want to transfer on down and we've

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Speaker 5: got a Tutor's Biscuit, Nil, all you can eat. So

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Speaker 5: if any of those guys that run really really fast

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Speaker 5: at Ohio State like biscuits, I promise you all you

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Speaker 5: can eat.

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Speaker 4: All day Biscuit World. I mean, what is I want

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Speaker 4: to be inside that?

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Speaker 2: It's never I think it's a breakfast place.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Leo five star review or reply to me on Twitter

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Speaker 2: when I two out this episode. If you've ever been

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Speaker 2: to a Tutor's Biscuit World.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you have a strong opinion, call I have

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Speaker 4: a postgame celebration with one of your wins with a

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Speaker 4: Tutor's biscuit.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe have to try it out. Let me

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Speaker 2: know if it's any good worth trying. But we got

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Speaker 2: a lot to get to today. We will touch on

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Speaker 2: probably about twenty games. Also, make sure you check out

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Speaker 2: the Group of Five Guys their episodes out reviewing the

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Speaker 2: Group of Five Slate this weekend. Mike and Mike always

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Speaker 2: do a great job, so make sure you check it out.

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Speaker 2: All right, So let's get right into it.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 4: Let's check out the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 2: We'll all end up bedding. For Week four. We have

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Speaker 2: three marquee games. Let's start with Utah Oklahoma State. It's

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Speaker 2: been a wild ride in the market as of right now,

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Speaker 2: I don't even know if I should say this because

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Speaker 2: by the time we're recording, who knows where this will be.

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State is a two and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 2: total sitting around fifty two and a half. All the

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Speaker 2: speculation is around Cam Rising. Is he healthy? Is he

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Speaker 2: going to wear a glove? Is he not healthy? The

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Speaker 2: line was you went up to us Utah minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half overnight within like an hour or two,

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Speaker 2: flipped all the way the other other way, move five points,

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Speaker 2: and then Oklahoma State it's a two and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite. Does someone knows something? That was all the

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Speaker 2: rumblings on Twitter, and you know, Winniham doesn't saynything. I

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Speaker 2: remember a game I think at Washington State. Remember when

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Speaker 2: Cam Raising was out, No one knew the market never

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Speaker 2: knew before, So it's hard to get information out of

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Speaker 2: that program. And he's obviously key to Utah's offense. If

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Speaker 2: he can't go, you know, you're down to what Zach

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Speaker 2: Wilson's little brother.

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Speaker 4: Oh boy, oh boy.

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Speaker 2: Is the is the backup? This Oklahoma State defense has

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Speaker 2: some holes. You know, they lost Colin Obbers and important piece.

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Speaker 2: They gave up six hundred and thirty yards to Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, Utah's defense is

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Speaker 2: very good. You know that they're going to try to

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Speaker 2: take away Ali Gordon. That's what all the everyone has

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Speaker 2: been doing against Oklahoma State. More guys in the box,

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Speaker 2: take away Ali Gordon. That's he's not been able to

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Speaker 2: get going. Is that going to lead out on the outside.

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Speaker 2: It's going to leave one on one matchups Ken Allen

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Speaker 2: Bowman take advantage he did against Tulsa. This is a

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Speaker 2: little better, higher caliber defense, but he's definitely going to

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Speaker 2: have some shots on the outside. And Oklahoma State does

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Speaker 2: have some talent out there. For what it's worth, Gundhy

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Speaker 2: in this spot has been just an absolute wizard if

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Speaker 2: you look back historically, I believe this is the tenth

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Speaker 2: time they're home underdogs since twenty sixteen. Gundy eight and

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Speaker 2: one in the previous nine against the spread. All eight

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Speaker 2: of those covers were outright wins. Also, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: the heat, it's so what it's going to be like

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Speaker 2: one hundred degrees. How does Utah handle the heat? So

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Speaker 2: a lot of uncertainty in this game. I have no idea.

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Speaker 2: So break it down for us. What do you like?

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Speaker 2: What's going on with cam Rising? If you know anything,

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Speaker 2: and what do you like.

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Speaker 4: In northwest Arkansas? Ninety five degrees right now and it's

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Speaker 4: about to be hotter tomorrow. We're only two hours away

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Speaker 4: from Stillwater. It is hot, and I think that plays

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Speaker 4: a huge factor into what I like in this game.

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Speaker 4: But let's talk about this cam Riising stuff. We really

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Speaker 4: have to break it down because I was getting text

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Speaker 4: at like one o'clock in the morning last night, what

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Speaker 4: the hell is going on here with this Utah Oklahoma

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Speaker 4: state number? So it gets announced on Monday, the cam

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Speaker 4: Raising is most definitely going to play in this game.

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Speaker 4: That's official. It was out there on Twitter. It moved

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Speaker 4: the line if you were able to get Utah plus

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Speaker 4: three like I did think Sunday night, like then that's

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Speaker 4: a good number. And then it moved all the way

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Speaker 4: to Utah being a favorite. It's completely valid the booth.

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Speaker 4: So where we're at right now, and if somebody tells

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Speaker 4: you they know what Cam Raising is going to do

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Speaker 4: on Saturday. They're lying.

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Speaker 2: Nobody knows right now.

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Speaker 4: Kyle Whittingham doesn't know what's going on right now, but

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Speaker 4: it's going to be made ninety minutes before the game

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Speaker 4: in pregame with his injury to see if he's going

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Speaker 4: to be able to go.

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Speaker 2: That's the truth.

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Speaker 4: So the only advice is if you can get a

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Speaker 4: plus three and you want to lock that in, get it.

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Speaker 4: You can get a cheap money line you want to

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Speaker 4: get it, you can if you want to plan on

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Speaker 4: playing it live, which is what I'm going to do.

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Speaker 4: I've already got a plus three locked up on Utah

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Speaker 4: and I'll play and to play Oklahoma State on the

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Speaker 4: other side, I'm not going to touch his side. Don't

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Speaker 4: thinknybody should be touching the side because cameras Rising plays

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Speaker 4: like is he healthy?

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Speaker 2: What does the glove?

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Speaker 4: Exactly exactly?

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Speaker 2: I agree that in the side here is dumb. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: doesn't do it inside info, which I don't think anyone

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Speaker 2: does right.

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Speaker 4: Utah has been no to throw a few smoke screens

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Speaker 4: out there before, so I think you already mentioned that.

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Speaker 4: So there's a number of reasons in this game that

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Speaker 4: I love the Understuck's already mentioned the weather. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I'm two hours away from Silwater. It's freaking hot. I

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Speaker 4: think the first half under is good. I think the

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Speaker 4: full game under is good. So I'm not going to

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Speaker 4: split it up here. But if came raising plays, he's

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Speaker 4: not going to be the same. I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: a throwing hand injury, no matter if it's fully healed

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Speaker 4: or not.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we're trying to get adjustment back, and.

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Speaker 2: They so they don't want to run him as much

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Speaker 2: to keep them healthy, and that kind of decreases the

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Speaker 2: efficiency of the offense.

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Speaker 4: Exactly exactly now, starting on the other starting on the

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Speaker 4: Oklahoma State side of the ball, the rushing attack is broken.

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Speaker 4: They are one hundred and twentieth in success rate. So

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Speaker 4: I did a little deep dive to see what's going

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Speaker 4: on so far, because right now Oklahoma State is one

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Speaker 4: hundred and twentieth and success rate running the ball. Arkansas

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Speaker 4: limited Ali Gordon to like one yard per play? Like,

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Speaker 4: what is going on here with this offensive line that

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Speaker 4: was all averaging what twenty eight years old? This is

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Speaker 4: not what we expected for them. So if you go

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Speaker 4: into the numbers right now, you're going to see power

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Speaker 4: counter man concepts seventy five percent of the runs that

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Speaker 4: Oklahoma State is going right now. That's exactly what turned

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Speaker 4: the program around last year, and it's not working right now.

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Speaker 4: Only fifteen percent of brushing attempts this year have gone

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Speaker 4: to outside zone. So that is one reason to think

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Speaker 4: that this Oklahoma State offense is broken, and that's going

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Speaker 4: to lead to Alan Bowman living up to what he is.

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Speaker 4: He's a hot red quarterback. He picks one guy out

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Speaker 4: and he goes hard. That's his shot. He doesn't do

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Speaker 4: progressions and he loses massive success rate when he checks down.

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Speaker 4: The Utah secondary right now is number one in the

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Speaker 4: nation an on target allowed. You cannot put a ball

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Speaker 4: in between the numbers of a target against this Utah defense.

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Speaker 4: No one's getting clean uncontested catches against the utes. Thirty

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Speaker 4: one seconds per play going on here for Utah. That

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Speaker 4: is really slow. You know, close to one hundred degrees

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Speaker 4: what it feels like from a humidity standpoint. I want

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Speaker 4: the under in this first half, full game, Just the

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Speaker 4: under here.

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Speaker 2: He is a whole street. All right. Let's move on

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Speaker 2: to USC Michigan. USC sitting at around a five and

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Speaker 2: a half point favor total down to forty four and

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Speaker 2: a half. This one will be played in the Big

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Speaker 2: House USC. For what it's worth, it's been over ten

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Speaker 2: years since they've covered or won a game in the

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Speaker 2: Eastern or Central time zones. Think they're zero to eight

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Speaker 2: over that span. But USC now does have a defense.

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Speaker 2: That defense showed well against the run end against that

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Speaker 2: really good LSU offensive line in the opener pitched a

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Speaker 2: rare shutout for USC. The USC program in their second game.

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Speaker 2: Now they're coming off of a buye here going to Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Michigan's offense still problematic. They're going now to alex Orgy.

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Speaker 2: I assume that means he can't really throw the ball,

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Speaker 2: So what does that mean. I think they're just gonna

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Speaker 2: spam rpo, probably use an additional like an extra offensive lineman,

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Speaker 2: and try to run it shorten this game. Even at

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Speaker 2: the under has come way down, But even at forty

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Speaker 2: four and a half, I think the under is still good.

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Speaker 2: I actually would lean USC. I mean this number US,

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Speaker 2: he was like a ten point favorite. I think over

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Speaker 2: the summer this is like what I was talking before,

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Speaker 2: Like these are huge swings. For three weeks into the season,

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Speaker 2: a national title contender who was expected to lose a lot,

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Speaker 2: was a ten point favorite. Now they're catching five at home,

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Speaker 2: Like this is the new world of college football. You

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Speaker 2: got to adjust these things huge. I assume Michigan is

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Speaker 2: just going to try to run it shorten this game. Yes,

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Speaker 2: on the other side, the USC's offenses look good, Miller

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Speaker 2: mosses look good. But this is his first true road

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Speaker 2: start in a hostile environment. How will he fare against

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Speaker 2: the Michigan defense? And Wink Martindale Wink Martinell doesn't run

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Speaker 2: the most complex scheme, and Lincoln Riley's a great flight caller,

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Speaker 2: saw what Texas was able to do. Has an extra

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Speaker 2: week to prepare, And if Michigan gets behind in this game,

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Speaker 2: just like against Texas, they're toast. Please don't tell me

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Speaker 2: you're going to make a case for Michigan again.

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Speaker 4: No, you know, I'm not going to make a case

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Speaker 4: for Michigan, especially when they went to alex ORGI. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I like the Colston leveland Davis Warren from before that

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Speaker 4: was two weeks ago. We'll forget that ever happened. But

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Speaker 4: I would like to say, like how hard this game

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Speaker 4: has been for me to handicap and The reason is

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Speaker 4: because I've been hot on USC the second they hired

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Speaker 4: Danton Lynn before that Holiday Bowl game against Louisville. But

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Speaker 4: when is this number right now? For me?

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Speaker 2: I mean savin for a bit, and obviously there was

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Speaker 2: an appetite for the Wolverines there and I make a

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Speaker 2: USC minus three.

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Speaker 4: So this five and a half six whatever, it's really

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Speaker 4: got me scared death because Michigan can make this a

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Speaker 4: seven possession game and Miller Moss playing in his first

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Speaker 4: hostile environment. There's a big difference between Texas coming up

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Speaker 4: here and USC coming here quinn Ewers is played in

258
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Speaker 4: the college football playoffs. I wouldn't take anything above USC

259
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Speaker 4: minus three. So we got to find a play in

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Speaker 4: this game. It's definitely not going to be on Alex

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Speaker 4: Orgy running the RPO, especially when Shearan Moore just dropped

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Speaker 4: that bomb on everybody this week that he's going to

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Speaker 4: be the starting corner. He didn't even tell the team.

264
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Speaker 4: Donovan Edwards are shocked.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: USC looks so good against LSU and Michigan looks so

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Speaker 4: bad against Texas. That's why you're getting all this steam.

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Speaker 2: But does the state By the way, at four point eight, I.

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Speaker 4: Mean still We're not at five and a half, right,

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Speaker 4: and so I think the question is what could go wrong?

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Speaker 4: Does the size of the Big ten defense like Michigan

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Speaker 4: come into play, like, especially when this secondary is better

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Speaker 4: statistically on paper than LSU. Does the size of the

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Speaker 4: Michigan defense play a factor here? Now Zachari Branch is

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Speaker 4: expected to get paired up with slock corners Zeke Berry.

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Speaker 4: Zeke Berry allowed three or four catches against Texas. He

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Speaker 4: only allowed twenty two yards. He was able to tackle.

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Speaker 4: He allowed catches, but he was able to make some tackles.

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Speaker 4: Michigan should struggle against the pass big time. USC has

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Speaker 4: major advantages on paper throwing it against Michigan. So don't

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Speaker 4: think that Miller Moss can't get explosive passes here. Now

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Speaker 4: there's the Wink Martindale factor, But I don't think this

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Speaker 4: is the coach that you wanted because in the NFL

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Speaker 4: he was heavy aggressive blitz. Well look what he is now,

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Speaker 4: he's fifty five percent blitz at Michigan. Like you got

286
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Speaker 4: to take your foot off the pedal when you don't

287
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Speaker 4: have Yeah, it does not work, especially when you're playing

288
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Speaker 4: a possession offense like your army like you're a service academy.

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Speaker 4: Why are you running so much blitz You're not producing

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Speaker 4: having but you're blitzing over fifty five percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: I don't understand what you're doing. Let's look at Miller

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Speaker 4: Moss ten of fourteen on pressured pockets thirteen percent, big

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Speaker 4: time throw. I mean, sure, put pressure in his face.

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Speaker 4: He's not going to have a problem with it. The

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Speaker 4: coverage grading has been extremely poor for Michigan. Now, the

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Speaker 4: move to Orgy is a simple fact that they just

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Speaker 4: they want to run pure inside zelt. The better bet

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Speaker 4: to me is that there is a major, major coaching

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Speaker 4: disadvantage in Lincoln Riley's offensive play calling against Wink Martindale.

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Speaker 4: And let me throw this in because the people that

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Speaker 4: I've kind of floated this too in text this week

302
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Speaker 4: and been like that's not a big deal. Danton Lynn

303
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Speaker 4: was the safety's coach at the Baltimore Ravens for Wing

304
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Speaker 4: Martin Dell, So it's not like we don't know what

305
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Speaker 4: Wing Martindale system is.

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Speaker 2: Your defensive coordinator worked for him.

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Speaker 4: I think that is a huge advantage. I am betting

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Speaker 4: the USC team total over now. The problem with that

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Speaker 4: is right now, it's at twenty four and a half.

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Speaker 4: This number is big time sinking. Weather was going to

311
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Speaker 4: come in on Saturday. That forecast got updated to day

312
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Speaker 4: on Thursday. That weather has now moved to Sunday, so

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Speaker 4: weather shouldn't be a factor. I think USC is going

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Speaker 4: to get their points here. Just getting a little greedy here.

315
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Speaker 4: I want to get under twenty four and a half.

316
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Speaker 4: But there will be a play on USC team total

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Speaker 4: over this wing Martindal thing I think is going to

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Speaker 4: get blown up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Michigan hope you got to shorten this game.

320
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Speaker 2: The defensive line has to dominate. Like the USC offensive line,

321
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Speaker 2: we'll see like the LSU defensive line is not good.

322
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Speaker 2: They'll be tested here. They have to create some havoc

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Speaker 2: and then you just keep the crowd in it. I

324
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Speaker 2: think if you like Michigan, split up your bet or

325
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Speaker 2: just bet Michigan first half. I don't see a path

326
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Speaker 2: where Michigan's far behind in this game and they can

327
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Speaker 2: come back. The USC defense a ton of town on

328
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Speaker 2: the back end. They're much more well schemed on defense

329
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Speaker 2: and Michigan is not. That's why you're seeing some of

330
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Speaker 2: those coverage breakdowns on the back end. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: move on to our third marquee matchup of the day.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one. Tennessee travels to Oklahoma, sitting

333
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Speaker 2: it around a touchdown favorite right now, rare territory for Oklahoma.

334
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Speaker 2: Total sitting around fifty seven under his taken decent amount

335
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Speaker 2: of money. This will be the first time Oklahoma is

336
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Speaker 2: an underdog at home of three or more points since

337
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Speaker 2: two thousand, when it upset number one Nebraska in a

338
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Speaker 2: wild game. They scored thirty one straight to end that game.

339
00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 2: Crowd was throwing oranges onto the field. They ripped down

340
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Speaker 2: the goalpost. There was pepper spray. I think stoop Scott

341
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 2: sprayed interestingly enough in that game. Who is the quarterback

342
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Speaker 2: for Oklahoma Josh Heipel. Who's a defensive coordinator Brett Bentables.

343
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Speaker 6: That's good, That's a good thing.

344
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Speaker 2: Hipel also was fired by Oklahoma. Now coming back to

345
00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 2: his ol model storylines for days in this game. You

346
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 2: saw him earlier in Sports Center.

347
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Speaker 5: Now Josh Hipel the South South Dakota and by way

348
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Speaker 5: of Utah Snow Junior College.

349
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Speaker 4: From day one, the Sooners did believe the hyphole. Josh

350
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 4: Hipel is no mere hype. His humility and sense of family.

351
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Speaker 2: Values are the real thing. That's the way they grow

352
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Speaker 2: him in Aberdeen, South Dakota. It's also the first SEC

353
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Speaker 2: game for Oklahoma at home and Norman in Primeton. Crowd

354
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Speaker 2: is going to be electric. It'll be the first true

355
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 2: road test for Nico the s. He beat NC State

356
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,840
Speaker 2: in Charlotte, but that was fifty to fifty proud. This

357
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:46,640
Speaker 2: will be a much different atmosphere. They don't usually get

358
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Speaker 2: big time, high profile elite teams at home. Their biggest

359
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: game every year is against Texas in Big Bull Play,

360
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 2: and that game is on a neutral field. Now SEC play,

361
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 2: you're going to see more of these, so this place

362
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:57,960
Speaker 2: should be jumping.

363
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 6: I like ooklhommere no matter for a twenty eight point

364
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,800
Speaker 6: favorite ko Ford three point doll. That's what being all

365
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 6: in means.

366
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Speaker 2: Now, going back to what I talked about the top

367
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 2: of the pot, I could just be wrong and not

368
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 2: have upgraded Tennessee. And now if they blow out Oklahoma,

369
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 2: this team might be all in. I will I've already

370
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: upgraded them five or six points, and I downgraded Oklahoma

371
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,399
Speaker 2: three to four points. I still can't get to this number.

372
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Speaker 6: To me, it's not like, oh, everything's great, No, everything

373
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 6: ain't great, but you know what, that's good. That's a

374
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,639
Speaker 6: good thing. Good, that's good.

375
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,959
Speaker 2: New world of college football. Maybe I was ten twelve

376
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,639
Speaker 2: points off on Tennessee. They've looked a part, but I

377
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 2: still have a process.

378
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 4: What number you at all? Right?

379
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 2: So I'm sorry. Seven and a half w of neutral

380
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 2: home field advantage in the spot for me, four points

381
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 2: not so much. It's worth to me. We better bring it.

382
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 2: Bring your mouthpiece, Nico, first true roadstar. Oklahoma does have

383
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 2: a really good home field advantage already, first SEC game

384
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 2: in prime time. This is like as good as home

385
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: field gets, I think. So I'm like three and a

386
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,359
Speaker 2: half four is where Matt power Riddens was. Am I

387
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 2: worried about the bet? Yeah, but I mean at seven,

388
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 2: I've got so plus seven and a half minus one

389
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 2: oh five, it's a no brainer. Through a key, I

390
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,920
Speaker 2: can't I can't get the seven. I can't get the six.

391
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 2: Tennessee's looked great, but they dominated. They are built to

392
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,199
Speaker 2: just shred for horrible teams. They dominated against State. Kent

393
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 2: State lost at home to Saint Francis the week before.

394
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: I don't even think that Saint Francis won the game

395
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 2: by the game, embarrassing beat Chattanooga, an FCS team destroyed them.

396
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 2: Then their impressive win and I was wrong on them

397
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,960
Speaker 2: was against NC State. Have you seen NC State since?

398
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 2: So I have to say, let's hold our horses on Tennessee.

399
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,640
Speaker 2: I know they look great. The offense is great, Pipol

400
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 2: is great, Nico's super talented, Sampson's a great back. They

401
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 2: have really talented now healthy receivers. The defensive line on

402
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,239
Speaker 2: paper is great. The secondary still have big concern and

403
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: obviously NC State wasn't gonna test that. They couldn't throw

404
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 2: the ball in La Tech or Western Carolina. So now

405
00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 2: the question. But here's the thing. Why have I downgraded

406
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 2: Oklahoma Because they haven't looked right now. They've had a

407
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 2: tougher schedule, but even against Temple that has benefited Temple

408
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:08,360
Speaker 2: pumple the ball every play.

409
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,360
Speaker 6: We got long ways to go. It's a work in progress.

410
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 6: We're under construction.

411
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 2: They play Houston, argue we should have lost that game

412
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 2: last week against tu Lane. It was a close game

413
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 2: till the end. The offense hasn't looked right, but I'm

414
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 2: giving them the benefit of the doubt somewhat because a

415
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 2: lot of it has just been injuries. The injuries have

416
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 2: been extreme. You're down at a four string center, maybe

417
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:31,719
Speaker 2: one team in the country, then go down to their

418
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 2: four string center and their offensive line that had to

419
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 2: replace all five starters and be okay, so they can't

420
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 2: run it, they can't get protection. But it looks like

421
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 2: Troy Everett he's going to be back. Projected starter, Jake

422
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 2: Taylor is questionable, Hickman is questionable. They could have three

423
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 2: offensive line starters back. Now is the continuity going to

424
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 2: be good? I don't know, but the guys they add

425
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 2: up there were bad. The offensive line will be better

426
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: because it'll be healthier this week. How much healthier. What

427
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 2: does a continuity look like. I don't know. I don't

428
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: think anyone really knows, but it definitely will be better

429
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: than what we've seen. At wide receiver, it's basically just

430
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 2: been throwing to Dion Burks. They've lost they had they

431
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 2: were down three or four guys. Well, good news here,

432
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,919
Speaker 2: Nick Anderson's huge, big target number, their number one receiver.

433
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: He's back and we'll list it as probable andrel Anthony

434
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 2: Huge He's back listed as probable. So you also get

435
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: your cheetah guy in Dolby back your cheata position. You're

436
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 2: down to your third string there. Recently does look like

437
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 2: Gentry Williams, one of their best coinners, will still be out.

438
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 2: But and McCullough, who's like the other cheetah, he's out

439
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 2: as well. But the wide receivers now you actually have

440
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: some juice if you should get better protection the offensive line,

441
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: just the offense in general should look better here. Defensively,

442
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 2: I believe in this Oklahoma team. I think they're, you know,

443
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: a top ten defense nationally. Get that cheetah position back.

444
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,199
Speaker 2: They're really good against the run. That's the key. You

445
00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 2: got to stop sent and you got to stop the

446
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 2: game because that's you know, you think of Tennessee and

447
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 2: Nico and throwing the ball, and that's part of it.

448
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 2: But everything's set up through the run, and I think

449
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 2: Oklahoma can hold its own up front at the linebacker position.

450
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: This is your chance and our chance to align on

451
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 2: the same page with your boy Danny Stutsman there it

452
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: is so yeah, I think there's too many points. I

453
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 2: think Tennessee is real, but I don't have them up

454
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 2: in that top trio yet. And this is a really

455
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 2: good defense in a home heipe hype height, prime time

456
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 2: spot boomer sooner, I am the former mayor of Norman,

457
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 2: as my friends at Norman. Now get me this cover

458
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: and I will return and we will party.

459
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 4: If I'm a sooner, then I'm a sooner.

460
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 6: I'm not sooner when it's convenient.

461
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: Okay, tell me you're with me on Stutsman and Company.

462
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 4: I'm just having all these warm feelings for people that

463
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 4: don't know Stuck and I don't. We don't check nodes.

464
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 4: I'm on Oklahoma too. That's a good thing they hate

465
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: on Oklahoma has been completely justified, right. I mean, ten

466
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 4: percent success rate on two does in passing down attempts

467
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 4: against Temple, that's pretty bad. Four point seven yards per

468
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 4: play in passing attempts against Houston, that's pretty bad. So

469
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 4: the biggest culprit about what's been going on with this

470
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: offense is we thought the Jackson Arnold was just terrible, right,

471
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 4: But that's the deduction that you make when you don't

472
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 4: have a lot of data. We have enough data now.

473
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: Jackson Arnold has seen twenty eight pressures so far. He

474
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 4: is six of sixteen passing with two interceptions in a

475
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 4: crowded pocket. He's still a young quarterback. He just played

476
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 4: in a bold and he showed up. He's essentially a freshman,

477
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 4: and freshmen get better in time in pressured pocket. So

478
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 4: if he can play a clean game, Oklahoma's going to

479
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 4: look like a much different offense. Now, there is one

480
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: player on this line that shines above any of the others,

481
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 4: and it's right tackle Michael Tarquin. When you go into

482
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 4: PFF grading, Michael Tarquin is not just the best pass

483
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 4: blocking and run blocker on this team, he is one

484
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 4: of the best pass blockers in the nation. Now, he

485
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 4: can play left tackle, but he's been lining up at

486
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 4: right tackle. Who is he going to be put up

487
00:22:55,480 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 4: against James Pierce. That is a neutralizing effect that can

488
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 4: limit some of these pressures that are coming at Jackson Arnold.

489
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 4: Let Jackson Arnold get some of these offensive plays out

490
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 4: there and build their success rate like they did last week. Now,

491
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 4: the giant here that we have to talk about is

492
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 4: Tennessee offense. Well, Georgia decided to tell us exactly how

493
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 4: to stop Tennessee. They run quarters. It's a zone look

494
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 4: in the back, but it's man upfront. And what though

495
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 4: that man coverage does up front? They're one on one

496
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 4: with the wide receivers, they put their arms on them

497
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 4: and they stop them from getting off the line because

498
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 4: you get five yards to do that. Why is that important?

499
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 4: Because Josh Heipel's offensive system is a timing system, and

500
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 4: if you don't have a secondary that can stiff arm

501
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 4: and interrupt those routes and those steps, you're gonna get

502
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 4: eaten alive. And Tennessee, that's the reason they ring people

503
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 4: up a flagpole is because there are defenses that can't

504
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 4: run quarters and Georgia calls it specifically a mint package.

505
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 4: I heard Quarter's mint package dropped by one of the

506
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 4: assistant coaches this week in Oklahoma. That tells me everything

507
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 4: I need to know that they know exactly what they

508
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 4: have to do against this Tennessee offense and how to

509
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 4: defend them. Safety Robert Spears Jennings is graded the seventh

510
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 4: best individual pass coverage safety. I'm sorry, defensive back at

511
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 4: all of PFF's database.

512
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: You got Bowman back there too, is a really good player.

513
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 4: Bowman's back there now. Like I said, as Stuck's already

514
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 4: says his name, Danny Stutsman is the one that lines

515
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 4: everybody up. He's the one to make sure there's nose mistackles.

516
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 4: He makes sure that this is a discipline defense. Oklahoma's side,

517
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 4: we're gonna play get your seven. The hate on Oklahoma

518
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 4: is worth it, you would agree, but I would say

519
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 4: that they haven't shown anywhere near what they're capable of.

520
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: At this number. Boomer, sooner, baby.

521
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,479
Speaker 6: We expect the best from everybody else supporting the program

522
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 6: the right way, no matter what the temperature is, what

523
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 6: time it is, Okay, show up, show up.

524
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: Good, transition into the rundown. It's got about seven games here.

525
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 2: We'll go through USF similar to Tennessee and that offense

526
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: timing under Alex Skolish, I think they found it last week.

527
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 2: They didn't have it again. It's Alabama guys wide open

528
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: down the field, wide open, and they just brown just

529
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: couldn't hit them, come out slow against Southern Miss couldn't anything.

530
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 2: And then the offense I think finally found its timing.

531
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: And then they just rolled in Hattiesburg. How do you

532
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: tap this Miami team got to be the secondary hasn't

533
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: been tested yet. Yes, they blew out Florida. Have you

534
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: seen Florida? Since Florida just got destroyed at home by

535
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 2: Texas A and M which makes that I mean, I

536
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: think the final four was thirty three twenty, but it

537
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: was what thirty three seven with a backup quarterback makes

538
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 2: that Miami win look a little less impressive. Now, Miami's

539
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: really good top ten team in my eyes, but their

540
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 2: other games came against you know, a horrendous ball State

541
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 2: team who has nothing, no quarterback, no passing game to

542
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 2: speak of. And then the little Sisters of the Poor.

543
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: I don't know the other team that they beat off

544
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 2: the top of my head, well, Florida A and M.

545
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 2: The rattlers. I think what Richards said that X speaking

546
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 2: of ball State, the ex Central Michigan quarterbacks. The starting

547
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 2: quarterback for Florida A and M. He was at Central

548
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 2: distrapt like five years, then FAU. Then now he's at

549
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: Florida A and M.

550
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,239
Speaker 4: These kids have to go get jobs, all right, come on,

551
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 4: it's enough of this shit.

552
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 2: Go get a job. Seventeen he had seventeen's out there

553
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 2: right now. I like USF. Yeah, I think that they

554
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: can attack this Miami defense. It's a huge home HiPE spot,

555
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 2: one of the biggest home games in USF. It's gonna

556
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 2: be sold out. I think they were getting like extra seeding.

557
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 2: This is similar like Northern Illinois against Notre Dame. Do

558
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: you know that these kids on USF those Florida kids

559
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: little extra juice this week? But I think Brown's legs

560
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 2: and his ability to run kind of raises the floor

561
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 2: for this offense. They can, They're gonna get some deep shots,

562
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: and I think they're due to hit them. And I

563
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,479
Speaker 2: think they've finally found their timing. And this USF defense

564
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,959
Speaker 2: is improved more It was a mess last year, but

565
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 2: more experienced. They added some key transfers who seem to

566
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: have meshed well. And this is a team that has

567
00:26:55,320 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 2: shown us that they can compete against upper echelon power

568
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: for competition. They blew out Syracuse forty five to nothing

569
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 2: in a bowl, I mean, but more importantly, the last

570
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: two years they hung with Alabama, so they won't be

571
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 2: afraid here. I like USF.

572
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 4: You agree, absolutely, one hund percent agree. I'm not going

573
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 4: to go as far to say they win. We'll see

574
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,479
Speaker 4: what happened Saturday morning, So I mean South Florida. This

575
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 4: team has played the third toughest schedule of any team

576
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 4: this season so far. We know that they generate a

577
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 4: ton of defensive havoc what is the handicap on Miami.

578
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 4: Put some havoc on cam Ward, get him to caugh

579
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 4: up the ball, get some easy turnovers, get some easy scores.

580
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 4: Eleventh nationally. Right now, the Bulls are They already have

581
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 4: twenty seven tackles for loss, fifteen passes defense, and they've

582
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 4: generated four funnels with a schedule that includes Alabama. I mean,

583
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 4: this may be the toughest havoc assignment that I think

584
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 4: Miami sees the entire season for cam Moore because I'm

585
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 4: just not seeing it a lot of the other teams

586
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 4: inside the ACC. Now, the Bulls do have ish against

587
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 4: the pass. I mean, you can't get around that. But

588
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 4: when you look at this, you played the third toughest

589
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 4: schedule and that includes a Jalen Milroe deep ball to

590
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 4: Ryan Williams. Right, everybody is a victim to that. So

591
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,719
Speaker 4: I'm not really sure exactly how bad this South Florida

592
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 4: secondary is from a numbers perspective considering the schedule that

593
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 4: they've had to play. Now, USF is near dead last

594
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 4: offensively and creating quality drives, but they are top ten

595
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 4: in rush explosives. And that goes down to what you said.

596
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 4: Quarterback Byron Brown, nikwan Wright. They are just firecrackers. It's

597
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 4: just impossible to get ahold of them. Miami's defense, this

598
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 4: is shocking. They are one hundred and twenty fourth in

599
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 4: allowing rush explosives so far. They are seventy fourth in

600
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 4: defensive success rate against the run. There is an avenue

601
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 4: here for Brown and right.

602
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: Ron Run Ron. It's the Tennessee format and it's going

603
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 2: to start up a deep shots and that's where Miami's vulnerable.

604
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 2: The number is what it's gotta be hung out.

605
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:54,959
Speaker 4: I mean, we haven't seen anything in the action up

606
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 4: come in for me because the numbers I shouldn't. I

607
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 4: should just fire on the seventeen half. I make it,

608
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 4: and I think my hesitation is listen, guys, a lot

609
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 4: of these numbers gravitate to SP plus without people even

610
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 4: look at it, just blindly, don't even look. And people

611
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: that you know bet just bet these SP plus numbers.

612
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: They don't even care what the handicap is. The SP

613
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 4: plus number here is twenty. And that's why I'm like,

614
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 4: we're at seventeen and a half. Do I grab this

615
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 4: number before this thing? I don't know, potentially jets down

616
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: and sixteen a halves get scooped up on Miami or

617
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 4: is this thing going to flow to eighteen nineteen, you know,

618
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: nineteen and a half on Saturday. I don't know. I

619
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 4: don't care what if it floats around those dead numbers.

620
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take it again. I'll definitely talk about it

621
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 4: on Saturday. So I love usf here stuck. I actually

622
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 4: really like the over too. But I think I think

623
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 4: the question is when do you buy? Do you have

624
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 4: a number where you're gonna buy.

625
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 2: I've already bet it. I bet soon seventeen and a half. Yeah,

626
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: there's a seventeen and a half out there right now.

627
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

628
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: I think it was seventeen or below. I think any

629
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: You don't think it goes up? No, I think seventeen

630
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: and a half is the best it's gonna get. And

631
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it closes sixteen and a

632
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: half all right, could be wrong. It's a different market

633
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 2: this year. Memphis Navy down. This is one of the

634
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: best situational spots on the board. Navy got hit early.

635
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 2: I just wanted to get a fourteen that wasn't happening,

636
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: got service releases on a Monday, got hit. This got

637
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 2: hit down the difference between getting fourteen with the Service

638
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 2: got I mean ten is massive. I'm gonna bet at

639
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: or I want I need ten to bet it small.

640
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 2: But like if you look at Service gat ins historically

641
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: fourteen plus underdogs, they are like sixty two percent over

642
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: the course of all college football at ten ten to fourteen,

643
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: you know you're talking up fifty percent. It's a whole

644
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 2: extra possession. It's massive in a Service kind of game

645
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 2: where they can have the ball. So I will bet

646
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: this small at ten before you know, before the game,

647
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:57,959
Speaker 2: because in case Navy gets it first and then has

648
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,959
Speaker 2: a nine minute touchdown drive start the game, and then

649
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 2: you're never seeing the number again. But I really want

650
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: fourteen plus live. I was hoping to get that number here,

651
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: but it obviously opened at like twelve and then got

652
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 2: bet immediately down. Navy's coming off of a bye here.

653
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: They installed a new offense. It's like a triple option

654
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 2: with some new wrinkles under their new coordinator Drew Kronick.

655
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 2: It's hard to really gauge Navy though, because they played

656
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 2: Bucknell and Temple off of a bye here at home,

657
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 2: and the Memphis coming off that huge win against Glorida

658
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: State second straight road game. That was a huge win

659
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 2: for their playoff chances across the board. So just a

660
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 2: tough spot. I do worry about, you know, the Memphis

661
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: RUNDI was good last week against Farida State of Florida

662
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: State's offensive line was a mess at injuries. They didn't

663
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 2: really try to run it. I do worry about the

664
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 2: Navy secondary last year. So if you look at their

665
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: wins last year, any all their wins were against incompetent

666
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: passing attacks or teams that just didn't throw it or

667
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 2: couldn't throw it. Arlt's the other Service academies they lost

668
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: what by So we talked about South Florida Notre Dame

669
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: last year. SMU, their offense was actually good last year.

670
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: They allowed an average of over forty eight points per game.

671
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: In those they lost by forty five, thirty nine, and fourteen.

672
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 2: They even lost by fourteen to Temple and EJ. Warner. Again,

673
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: that's see at number fourteen. Came up twice there. The

674
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 2: only exception was against Memphis at Memphis, and again they

675
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: probably should have won. They outgained Memphis, they only lost

676
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: by four. But in the previous two years, Memphis, you know,

677
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 2: just shredded their secondary. That's my concern, but it is

678
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 2: a great spot. Any thoughts there.

679
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, my first thought is the odds makers are getting

680
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: much better at identifying these spots on Sunday morning shaving

681
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 4: what the line.

682
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 2: Should be in college basketball. Now it's happening in college

683
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 2: for I know, I was so good I would price

684
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: all these things, which so you can't price. And now

685
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: the market actually obviously is so this this was the thing,

686
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: and now it's sucking spot value out of the market. Yeah,

687
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: gottadjust things. Things always evolve in the market, become more efficient.

688
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, minimum Memphis should be a minimum to possession here.

689
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 4: I mean, Navy's strength to schedule right now is one

690
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 4: hundred and thirty four after playing Buck mellon Temple. So

691
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 4: this steam coming in, that's hitting it from ten down

692
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 4: to nine. It's like, mathematically, how did you make this number? Now?

693
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 4: Seth and again has been excellent so far this year.

694
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 4: One turnover worthy play and that came against Florida State.

695
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 4: But you know, the spot, the spot, the spots spot.

696
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: You're right, maybe you could get this kick roll off

697
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 4: a nine minute run and then and Memphis could go

698
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 4: three and other then you're in big time.

699
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 2: Trouble.

700
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 4: So you know, the question I think is can Memphis

701
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 4: stop the Navy, you know, heavy rush attack. To this point,

702
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 4: the Tigers are twenty first and defensive stuff right, so

703
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 4: you'd say, yes, they're twelfth in tackling, you'd say they're

704
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 4: not going to bust any explosives, sixteenth in the line yards,

705
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 4: which means they're dominating offensive lines, and their fourth in

706
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 4: defensive havoc. And that's coming against the schedule. It includes

707
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 4: Florida State, although I don't know if we're power rating

708
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 4: them above Navy these days. So there is sharp movie,

709
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 4: sharp money in the market that took that ten and

710
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 4: knocked it all the way down to nine. And that's

711
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 4: when I was like, I just I don't even know

712
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: if I can play Memphis at this point. I think

713
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 4: the I think what you want to look at with

714
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 4: this number going down is you want to look at

715
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 4: a first half under because of the spot for Memphis,

716
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 4: Papa is possibly coming as sluggish and the speed of

717
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 4: the Navy offense, which is no speed whatsoever, or play

718
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 4: Navy first half money line. I mean, I'm not sure

719
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 4: they can win the game out right right. At some

720
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: point Memphis will get their shots at But I mean

721
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 4: this is a great spot for coming off a by

722
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 4: facing a team off of Florida State win. This is

723
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 4: I mean, Memphis is probably heard. You're in line to

724
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:39,320
Speaker 4: make the college football playoff.

725
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: All right, Cal at FSU, oh Man FSU Ozho and

726
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: three three games as favorites. Doesn't happen often. They're lying

727
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 2: two and a half here. Cal is still dealing with injuries.

728
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: Florida State has some injuries on the offensive line. DJU

729
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 2: looks like he has an injured brain. It's Mike Norvell.

730
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: They do get out Alex Atkins back for the Akins

731
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 2: is back. Ackins is back. Do you catch the falling

732
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: knife at Florida State.

733
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 4: The markets is screaming that Florida State's gonna win this game,

734
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 4: But I mean Alex Atkins is back from his three

735
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 4: game suspension. The offensive line should be improved from a

736
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 4: fundamental standpoint during the game, because right now they're one

737
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty six and Havoc allowed their bottom ten

738
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 4: and stuff. Right, I don't know how you bet that.

739
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 4: You know, Cow's got problems too, they're one hundred nineteenth

740
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 4: and pass blocking they're near dead last, and line yards

741
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 4: offensively themselves. There is a massive special team's advantage here

742
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 4: for Florida State. They're seventh in SP plus versus.

743
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 2: Cow's good things Florida State has.

744
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 4: It's the I mean, are you going to make a

745
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 4: bet just because they have an advantage in the special teams?

746
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 4: I don't know how you see a team go zero

747
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 4: to three and lose the games they have and say

748
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: this is the week anyways, if you believe in the

749
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 4: market Florida State's team, I'm not doing it.

750
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if I get there, I lean are

751
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 2: you gonna do it? Why is this not in the

752
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 2: trash section? I don't know if I can back DJU.

753
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 2: I've stayed away all year, but I do show value

754
00:35:59,120 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 2: under a field goal.

755
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 4: You can do Diego, Diego, DJ Parlay in one week.

756
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: Might just quit. We'll get to Diego on the second.

757
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech at Louisville. Odd spot for Georgia Tech. Like

758
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: it's like their fifth game already. Yeah, Louisville coming off

759
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: of bye. But Louisville is another team, Like they look good.

760
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck is an upgrade quarterback. We'll see if you

761
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 2: can stay healthy this year. But Louisville has played Murray

762
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: State and Jacksonville State. Who is talk about a downgrade.

763
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: They are bad. I mean they got blown out by

764
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: Coast All. They lost against Eastern Michigan. This team is

765
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 2: significally worse. So we don't really know anything about this

766
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 2: Louisville team. Georgia Tech is Brent Key as an underdog

767
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: is fantastic, never always covers, you know. They they should

768
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 2: have some success offensively, but this is a good spot

769
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 2: for Louisville, like rested should be well prepped. Do you

770
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: have anything here?

771
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 4: I do think the game deserves a look at the over.

772
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 4: There's you know, Georgia Tech runs an extremely fast paced Defensively,

773
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 4: they are not good in coverage. Defensively, they are not

774
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 4: good in stopping the thought deal here. Yeah, yeah, So

775
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 4: I think the over is the look here kind of

776
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 4: sitting in a dead area between fifty five and fifty nine.

777
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 4: But if I was going to play this, that would

778
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 4: be the side. Plus if Georgia teket you know, we

779
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 4: see these stuff. We see these teams play these games

780
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: so many weeks in a row, like leading up to

781
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 4: a buy. What falls off first the defense? So I

782
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 4: do kind of kind of favorite over here. I have

783
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 4: to make a decision before we get the game.

784
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 2: Day Iowa football. Oh boy, a new exciting offense. Guess

785
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 2: what total against Minnesota thirty five and a half two

786
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite SAT Minnesota. This is the

787
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 2: primetime game on NBC. Is it on p Cocker NBC?

788
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 2: It's on NBC, but at the same time as Tennessee Oklahoma.

789
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 2: So side TV, this is the definition beside TV. This

790
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 2: game probably comes down to, like a punt or turnover.

791
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,439
Speaker 2: I'm throwing many in a round robin. They got nothing

792
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 2: else to say. I actually lean under and anything here.

793
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 4: You know, Minnesota statistically is going to be able to

794
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 4: stop up any kind of drive from Iowa. They've been

795
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 4: And I say this, both of these teams, Minnesota and

796
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 4: Iowa have almost the exact same strength of record and

797
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 4: a pretty close strength to schedule, so you can compare

798
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 4: their stats up against each other. So Minnesota's defense is

799
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 4: going to have a is going to have success stopping

800
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 4: Iowa in the chains. Mini's gonna have a smaller advantage

801
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 4: more than Iowa and running the ball. And that's because

802
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 4: of Darius Taylor. As much as I love to sit

803
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 4: around a kid that I was now an overteam we're

804
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: going to play them all the way. I don't think

805
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 4: this is the game that you want to do that

806
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 4: that said at thirty five, boy what I liked it

807
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 4: at tho over. I just don't think we can two

808
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 4: extreme snails. No EPA, there's no there's no weaknesses you

809
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 4: can exploit on these defenses.

810
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 2: To start a big twelve cast starts this weekend BYU

811
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 2: beats Kansas State.

812
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent with you. Reslaf is gonna have

813
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 4: he has a very good advantage against that Kansas State secondary.

814
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 4: I'm you know that was the cap with Arizona, and

815
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,439
Speaker 4: you know it just didn't didn't work out for Tet

816
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 4: and for for Ffeita.

817
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 2: But I think, I think and they were doing whatever

818
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 2: they wanted.

819
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 4: They just yeah, I agree with that.

820
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 2: No one goes into provo at night on a Saturday

821
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: night and beats b.

822
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: YU, Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's

823
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: time to play FC yes or no.

824
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,800
Speaker 2: The only FCS game. I wanted to mention Boise State's

825
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 2: a forty one and a half point favored against Portland State.

826
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 2: I wanted to mention, we'll see if Portland State plays.

827
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: They had their game canceled last week. Well, they said

828
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: they're going to play. There was a breakout of whooping

829
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: cough anyone who gets vaccinated, and they're going to play.

830
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: They said they have enough people, the enough players to play.

831
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 2: But it's important to mention because Boise State. If the

832
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 2: game doesn't get played by by wind totals, I'll get voided.

833
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 2: So genty should run wild. Curious to see how how

834
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: much they run them. You want to save them? Do

835
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 2: they want him to get int the heis and race

836
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: forty one and a half point favorites. I think it

837
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: opened thirty one should be a route. I had no

838
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 2: idea it was going to play for Portland State. All right,

839
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: it's time for it's trash. Oh boy, what's that smell?

840
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 2: It's digs me this trash.

841
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 4: A sweet, sweet trash.

842
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: The trash is a gold mine, old mine. I would

843
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 2: say it's extra ugly, but it's been pretty ugly to

844
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 2: start the year. Get right into a buffalo. I'll catch

845
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 2: in two touchdowns against NIU too high and I use

846
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 2: off of a bye. But this is not the team

847
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 2: that you want to back as a two touchdown favorite.

848
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: They play slow, they're going to be run heavy, and

849
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 2: for what it's worth their coach Thomas Hammock against FBS

850
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,720
Speaker 2: teams four and sixteen against the spread. As a favorite,

851
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 2: they own the color r of a touchdown per game

852
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 2: one in five as a favorite of more than a

853
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 2: touchdown against the number. Buffalo is better than I expected.

854
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 2: Pete Lemba one of the biggest coaching upgrades over the

855
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: linguist who was one of the worst coaches in the country.

856
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: He also will fix their special teams. Abouta impressed me

857
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 2: last week. I have to give him credit. This is

858
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: just too many points for NAU, who might be peeking

859
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 2: ahead like they're hearing all of love for two weeks.

860
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 2: NC State now that's like a winnable game next week.

861
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: I think Buffalo keeps us within two touchdowns is just

862
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 2: a low total.

863
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 4: This number should be seven and a half. I don't

864
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 4: know what this number is for real. I think it's

865
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 4: just a market that's been set by odds makers that

866
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 4: know that there's going to be an appetite for Northern Illinois.

867
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 4: I make this game seven and a half. I think

868
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,399
Speaker 4: sppuzz is in the single digits too. I don't get it.

869
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Buffalo.

870
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: I'm at ten good spot and I like it, and

871
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 2: he's a good, big favorite to fade ul Monroe against Texas.

872
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: Arch the cap here is arch. I mentioned this on

873
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 2: our new PCs show. Arch now is in for yours,

874
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 2: which means you have to worry more about his health

875
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 2: and the backup. The freshman isn't nearly as good as

876
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: right now as viewers or Manning. So you know sec

877
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 2: play coming up. You probably got to pull yours a

878
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 2: little earlier and instead of me, excuse me, pull Manning,

879
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: and instead of pulling yours than going to Manning, which

880
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 2: is why I wouldn't fade. Texas has a big favorite Coore.

881
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: Now you gotta worry about Manning and then you go

882
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:25,919
Speaker 2: to this freshman. Also, you on Monroe improved. They're better

883
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: than I thought. It was a complete rebat. They blew

884
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 2: out UAB. They exceeded odds maker's expectations against Jackson State

885
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 2: in Week one, covering easily off of a bye week here.

886
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: That's helpful for a team that had so much change

887
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: general Booty, we're backing them. And by the way, you

888
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 2: alm on a really good, huge underdog. All they're gonna

889
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: play super slow, run the ball, run the ball, run

890
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 2: the ball. Shorten this game. Give me the Warhawks.

891
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 4: I don't know if he belongs on the trash segment anymore,

892
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 4: but once Arch Manning was announced as the starter for

893
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 4: this game, I loved the first quarter over thirteen and

894
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 4: a half. I'm not sure if Texas gonna do that

895
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 4: by themselves. Ulm has proven they can they can get

896
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 4: it going. I love them to go over thirteen a

897
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 4: half in the first quarter.

898
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: You agree or disagree with you on a round? I agree.

899
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 4: I think Texas is going to take their foot off

900
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 4: the pedal. I don't think arch is playing past the

901
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 4: middle of the second quarter.

902
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 2: UTEP minor nation.

903
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 4: We're talking minor nation.

904
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 2: Out in the west. Tix In town of the past,

905
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: so picks up first time. Back of them here, Colorido State,

906
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 2: Colorina State's a mess. They just stink and now know

907
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 2: Tory Horton that's all they had. He's not playing this weekend.

908
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: They have a bye next week. UTEP is like getting better.

909
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: It's basically Austin p from last year. They're still searching

910
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 2: for their first win. I think they'll be feisty. I

911
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 2: think they got a shot the pull off the outright upset.

912
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: Give me the minors, No.

913
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 4: No, I got I got a utep like what under

914
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 4: four And I told everybody this is completely from screen.

915
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 2: It's gould be good. You've got the Southern Utah loss. Well,

916
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 2: you know what Scotty Walden is.

917
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,720
Speaker 4: You know he could be down by sixteen, and Scotty

918
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 4: Walden is, uh, he's still going to be trying to

919
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:02,919
Speaker 4: put it in with five seconds left, isn't He could

920
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 4: get a backdoor cover here.

921
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 2: So I'll give you that. But Colorinda State does nothing.

922
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 2: Well now they don't I know, I know they're they're

923
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: in the train Diego Diego. The only bets I can

924
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: get right this year on Diego I was, I'm back.

925
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 2: I am now president of the Pavia fan club. I

926
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: told you all year. When they're catching these big numbers,

927
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 2: they're like a Service academy catching twenty one. I worry

928
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: about their secondary getting toasted here. And Missouri did have

929
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: a good defensive game plan against Costianos last week, using

930
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 2: five defensive linemen really contained him in his legs. And

931
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 2: that's like a big part of the New Mexico State.

932
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 2: But this is a good spot for Vandy off that

933
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 2: bad loss, and just they're going to shorten the game

934
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:49,320
Speaker 2: too big.

935
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 4: I like Andy Vanderbilt one hundred and twenty seven the

936
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 4: defensive finishing drives. But let me say this. We spoke

937
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 4: about this before. Missouri last year had a very vanilla

938
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 4: offensive playbook under Kirby Moore, who came from President State,

939
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 4: and then SEC play started. Who is the team that

940
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 4: they routed Vanderbilt. My fear for this play for you

941
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 4: is that Missouri never showed anything that they actually want

942
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 4: to run until BC had them on the ropes and

943
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, Luther Burdon got eight targets, like

944
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 4: Luther Burdon had like three targets per game, and then

945
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 4: oh shit, we're in trouble against BC. Luthor Bird, Luther Bird, Lutherbird.

946
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 4: So that aspect makes me nervous. I'll say, good luck

947
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 4: to you. I'm not going to play Missouri here. Good

948
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 4: luck to you.

949
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: Last one, scariest one Charlotte and Biff.

950
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: I'm just Pogi and I'm a forty nine er.

951
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Indiana's a monster. I love Indiana, but I can't

952
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 2: get to this number. And look, Charlotte has a ton

953
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 2: of injuries. I'm monitoring. They lost Max Brown, the Florida

954
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: transfer quarterback, to injury. Then they FIfF wanted to go

955
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: with this true freshman. He said, I'm just gonna stick

956
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 2: with him until the wheels come off. Well, unfortunately for

957
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 2: the kid, but fortunately for Charlotte, he got hurt. The

958
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 2: wheels were off. He had like three picks who sacked

959
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 2: six times. He had like six turnover He throws the

960
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 2: true freshman kid from Baltimore. I think that's where Biff's from.

961
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: Our goal is very simple. Win the AAC.

962
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 5: Win it repeatedly, get to the college football playoff, and

963
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 5: my timetable is now.

964
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 2: He wants him to succeed. I think his name is Party.

965
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: Last name Party uh not spelled the same as Brock Party.

966
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 2: So Ivy who's their third string, but really is the

967
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 2: second string. He came in and looked great. He wasn't

968
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 2: good last year, but he's better than the true freshman.

969
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 2: So you get down to your third string, but it's

970
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 2: actually a way better option than the second string. And

971
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 2: he led them back against Gardner Webb. I think he

972
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 2: threw for like three touchdowns. They were down in that game,

973
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 2: and he like saved their season. And by season, I mean, like, hey,

974
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 2: we're gonna win three games. It's just too many points.

975
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 2: I think slower pace game. I like, Charlotte are four touchdowns.

976
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 4: So I actually did I look at this one. I

977
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 4: was like, okay, let's go do some researcher. Let's go

978
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 4: look at Signetty, at James Madison, and let's see what

979
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 4: happens when he took on inferior teams. Nothing gets people

980
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 4: sided like winning.

981
00:46:56,960 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: It's pretty simple. I win. Google me.

982
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 3: Now.

983
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,719
Speaker 2: It may pissed you people off, but so what. This

984
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 2: is the entertainment business.

985
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 4: We had to wake some people up and create some excitement.

986
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: Whatever you know about Indiana in the past, you got

987
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 2: to race to.

988
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 4: Take twenty twenty two Norfolk State sixty three to seven.

989
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 4: Middle Tennessee's that year forty four to seven. Then you

990
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 4: go to last year fifty six to fourteen on Coastal Carolina,

991
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 4: forty one to thirteen on Georgia Southern Signetti.

992
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 2: Forty one to thirteen. It's a cover baby.

993
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 4: I for some reason, I think Signetti's got a little

994
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 4: bit of that Petrino asshole in him. I'm telling you,

995
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 4: the guy likes to run scores up.

996
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 2: You know you gotta get him charged up. I say

997
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 2: good luck to you.

998
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 4: I can't get in there.

999
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,479
Speaker 2: It's a Biff. Yet we're gonna hit Biff at some point.

1000
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 4: I gotta wait.

1001
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe I'll wait to get it live. It's a

1002
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 2: good point. Signetti is, and you know they're up and

1003
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 2: coming program.

1004
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 4: But Signette's that kind of guy that's going to get

1005
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 4: to the podium and say ha ha, you guys thought

1006
00:47:58,080 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 4: we'd take a week off, you know, like he's that

1007
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 4: kind of guy.

1008
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 1: Kurt Signetti, all right.

1009
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 2: That's the trash the trash collection for this week, Charlotte Buffalo.

1010
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:10,399
Speaker 2: You on Monroe, UTEP and Bandy nowhere fast sandyto state

1011
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 2: we are undefeated on the totals this year. If we've

1012
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 2: agreed the first week, got an agree with you? That

1013
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: was all you. No, it's a bye week though, so

1014
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 2: we'll be back next week with our segment before we

1015
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 2: go three. Now, Colin in Arkansas, Arkansas going to Auburn.

1016
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 2: Auburn looks like they're going to start Hank Brown again.

1017
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 2: Peyton Thorne just turned the ball over too much. I'm

1018
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: fascinated by the Arkansas was embarrassed by Auburn last week.

1019
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: I'm sure they had this circled Petrino Cook here Taylor

1020
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: green like, what version of Greene are you in again.

1021
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 2: He say you look bad at times. Last week Auburn

1022
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 2: has vulnerable. Alburn defense looks a little bit vulnerable though,

1023
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 2: What do you like here? Whoo pig suy absolute dumpster

1024
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 2: fined dumps. I don't know how we win a game

1025
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 2: the rest of the year, just blowing program up. Give

1026
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 2: us a death sentence. Colin's talking razorback football.

1027
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 4: I like Argan ought to score a lot of points here,

1028
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 4: and let me talk about that UAB game real quick.

1029
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 4: So a lot of things have come out here. So

1030
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 4: I mentioned on the podcast on Sunday that Pittman said

1031
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 4: communication with the Helmets on defense wasn't there and Travis

1032
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 4: Williams was not around to coach because his family had

1033
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 4: a baby. So this is a huge game for Travis Williams.

1034
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 4: He's an Auburn alum. He coached at Auburn for like

1035
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 4: six years under maus On. Everybody on this defense knows

1036
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 4: that this is going to be a huge game for

1037
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 4: their defensive coordinator. So I expect the defense for Arkansas

1038
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 4: to show up. I've read so much stuff like Alex

1039
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 4: Mortensen found a play that BC ran against FSU, and

1040
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 4: then Dilford came out and said, I found out how

1041
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,600
Speaker 4: to stop Patrino's offense. You have to use NFL type

1042
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 4: blitz scheme, complex schemes. I'm like, whoa, it really worked.

1043
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 4: So I'm not sure Hugh Freeze got all of that.

1044
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 4: But I expect Arkansas's defense to have a huge, huge

1045
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 4: adjustment because they had to sit against UAB in a

1046
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 4: base defense with a defensive coordinator in Travis Williams that

1047
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 4: Paul's blitz fifty percent of the time and loves to

1048
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 4: be in cover zero. They weren't allowed to do that

1049
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 4: last week because they didn't any communit into the helmet.

1050
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 4: So I see huge improvement there. And then this Hank

1051
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 4: Brown kid that's taken over quarterback at Auburn.

1052
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 2: Like, I get it, he's been here for this guy.

1053
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 2: I'm not either.

1054
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:11,399
Speaker 4: He's got like a p shooter, like he just can't

1055
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 4: get it. It's like a bow Nick's arm. You just

1056
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 4: can't get it down the field, at least from a

1057
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 4: college perspective here, So I don't see that happening. They're

1058
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 4: gonna run urpo with Jarquois Hunter. You would want to

1059
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:23,760
Speaker 4: take advantage of Arkansas's secondary. They're actually really good against

1060
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 4: the run. Their top fifteen in defensive success rate against

1061
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 4: the Russian They, like I said earlier the podcast, they

1062
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,919
Speaker 4: held Ollie Gordon to one yard per at tent Taylor Green.

1063
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 4: You're right, I mean it just weaves in and out

1064
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 4: from drive to drive. He should have a hell of

1065
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 4: a day. Arkansas is number one by Sports Source Analytics

1066
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 4: and Big Play that is a measure of Russian pass epas.

1067
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 4: There's an avenue here against the Auburn defense from past

1068
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 4: explosive perspective. Auburn's outside the top one hundred and on

1069
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 4: target allowed, which means tailor's going to be able to

1070
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 4: hit Andrew Armstrong Isaiah Satania hopefully his hands are working.

1071
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 4: And Auburn's outside the top one hundred allowing explosives and

1072
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 4: standard downs. You see Arkansas drop back and take a

1073
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 4: twenty yard shot on first down. I wouldn't be surprised

1074
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 4: because Auburn has been very vulnerable and early downs on defense.

1075
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 4: So I like Arkansas. I waited to Arkansas, Arkansas's side,

1076
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:15,919
Speaker 4: Arkansas side.

1077
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them in some way this weekend. Big

1078
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 2: day for your guy Armstrong.

1079
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 4: Huge.

1080
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out here, let's go three

1081
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 2: and out. Let's make it a quick three and out. Colin,

1082
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 2: let's dive right into some Friday night lights on first down.

1083
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 4: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, fullhearts.

1084
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 1: Let's go play some football.

1085
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 2: Let's start with Stanford Syracuse. Two teams coming off the bye.

1086
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 2: Stanford I think sitting it around about an eight and

1087
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 2: a half point favorite here total fifty seven and a half.

1088
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 2: I was a rich only a little interested in Stanford.

1089
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 2: I was hoping to get over ten didn't come. Some

1090
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 2: Stanford money came in. I think it might be a

1091
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:12,840
Speaker 2: position I'll be able to get live. This game should

1092
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,240
Speaker 2: be back and forth. I do have some concerns about Stanford.

1093
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,280
Speaker 2: I do think the bye week favors of their staff

1094
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 2: are with the Syracuse staff, which is kind of green

1095
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 2: as far as you know x'es and o's and adjustments.

1096
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 2: But the Stanford offensive line still an issue. I don't

1097
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 2: think we'll have much of a run game outside of

1098
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 2: potentially Daniels's legs. But the Syracuse defense, if you look

1099
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 2: at some of the underlying metrics, they do have issues.

1100
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: There's some paths to points here for Stanford, but the

1101
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 2: offensive line still is a concern. The secondary really does

1102
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 2: concern me against this explosive Syracuse passing attack. Kyle McCord

1103
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 2: has been on fire through two games. He has weapons

1104
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 2: all around him, just explosive weapons. There's a lot of

1105
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 2: talent on that Syracuse offense. What do you see here

1106
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:05,320
Speaker 2: in this acc battle? Feels weird to say Stanford traveling

1107
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 2: across country to Syracuse.

1108
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 4: Stanford hanging around dead numbers on a Friday night might

1109
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 4: touch ten and you and I are going to try

1110
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 4: to grab it. This sounds exactly like the opener for

1111
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 4: the Trees against TCU. It's the exact same.

1112
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:19,320
Speaker 2: Market movement, and I can't disagree.

1113
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I think I make this Syracuse minus nine

1114
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 4: and a half. I think SP plus is around seven

1115
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 4: and a half on this game. Seven you're gonna get

1116
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 4: a ton of Syracuse. Ten, you're gonna get a lot

1117
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 4: of Stanford. I think the one thing I keep coming

1118
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 4: back to stuck in this game is that Syracuse has

1119
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 4: had severe struggles with mobile quarterbacks. You look at Parker

1120
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,320
Speaker 4: Navarro at Ohio, Haines King at Georgia Tech. They just

1121
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 4: had their way. They have a defensive EPA rank of

1122
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 4: you know, one hundred and thirteenth against the Rush seventy

1123
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 4: thirty against the pass. So there's an avenue for Stanford

1124
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,280
Speaker 4: for Troy Taylor to have some of these quick strikes,

1125
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 4: some of these trick plays, all of that bag that

1126
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 4: he has. And you're right, this Syracuse offense, I think

1127
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 4: they're gonna get better every week. With Kyle mccordy's up

1128
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:56,320
Speaker 4: to eight touchdowns already. And you know Syracuse is outside

1129
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 4: the top one hundred and rushing success rate, but there's

1130
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:00,759
Speaker 4: six and passing success right, So it's what they do

1131
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:02,800
Speaker 4: downfield through the air, and they should be able to

1132
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 4: do this against Stanford. They're outside the top one hundred

1133
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 4: defensive pass success rate. The coverage numbers are one hundred

1134
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 4: and tenth. They're on target allowed this one. I love

1135
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 4: you guys know I love on target. That is, does

1136
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 4: your wide receiver catch it and stride and keep moving well?

1137
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:19,760
Speaker 4: Stanford defensively, if you include FCS numbers, they're one hundred

1138
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 4: and sixty third.

1139
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 2: That is terrible.

1140
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 4: That tells me Kya McCord is going to go berserk.

1141
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:25,399
Speaker 4: I want the over end this number.

1142
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 6: Now.

1143
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 4: The keys in this range stuck are fifty five and

1144
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 4: fifty nine, two the biggest keys in totals. I think

1145
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 4: if you're seeing a fifty five and a half, you

1146
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 4: might want to go ahead and just pay an extra

1147
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:35,439
Speaker 4: ten cents and get that fifty five. But I really

1148
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 4: like the over here. I see no resistance to Kyla McCord.

1149
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 4: I don't like Syracuse's ability to stop a mobile quarterback

1150
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 4: with Ashton Daniels.

1151
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 2: I might just look to get a better number live

1152
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 2: on Stanford. But yeah, should be points in this one.

1153
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 2: We'll cover Nebraska Illinois in just a moment in another segment.

1154
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 2: But let's talk a little San Jose State Washington State

1155
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 2: on the polose. Both of these teams are three and zero,

1156
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 2: both straight up and against the spread. This is a

1157
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 2: tricky handicap for what it's worth. The San Jose State quarterback,

1158
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 2: your guy, doctor Brown, He's coming back to Pulman. He

1159
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:18,399
Speaker 2: was at Washington State, now he's at San Jose State.

1160
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 2: Why is this a tricky handicap? Well, Washington State umber

1161
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: one coming off of it's a short week, coming off

1162
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:27,919
Speaker 2: of a huge win, rivalry game, win, emotional, close game

1163
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:31,840
Speaker 2: against Washington now short week against San Jose State. Is

1164
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 2: there a little bit of an emotional letdown? And then

1165
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 2: on the other side, who is San Jose State, who

1166
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 2: they played the opener Sack State. There was a misleading

1167
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: final score, but they played an FFCS school. They played

1168
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:46,399
Speaker 2: air Force, who is dreadful this year, the worst version

1169
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:48,320
Speaker 2: of air Force we've seen in quite some time. And

1170
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: then they played Kennessall State, the worst team in FBS. Now,

1171
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 2: to their credit, they did cover all three. The one

1172
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 2: thing we do know is maybe I'll just bet some

1173
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 2: Nick Nash props. Nick Nash is a baller. I bet

1174
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 2: Kennizall State last week and I said, look, they're going

1175
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 2: to cover this number. As long as they just cover.

1176
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 2: Nick Nash get seventeen catches for two hundred and twenty

1177
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 2: five yards and three touchdowns against air Force, seven for

1178
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 2: ninety in a touchdown against Sack State, ten for one

1179
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 2: to seventy and two touchdowns. This kid's got five hundred

1180
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 2: yards receiving in three games and six touchdowns.

1181
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:25,879
Speaker 3: Nick.

1182
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,719
Speaker 2: Should we get our Nick Nash Heisman future tickets? Is

1183
00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 2: he even listed out there? I mean he's basically their

1184
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 2: entire offense. But tough spot for Washington State. What do

1185
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 2: you see here?

1186
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:37,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're right about the spot for Washington State. I mean,

1187
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 4: you come off the Apple Cup. They've got Boise State

1188
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 4: on the road next week. You know, how serious are

1189
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 4: you taking San Jose State. This is a number I've

1190
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 4: desperately wanted to get to thirteen, thirteen and a half

1191
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 4: so I can take some San Jose State again. At ten,

1192
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 4: it would take a lot of money from Washington State.

1193
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 4: So that's how the market's going to react.

1194
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 2: But you know, you look at this.

1195
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 4: Washington State has been nothing but a big play machine.

1196
00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 4: They're fourth in rush EPA and sixteenth in pass EPA.

1197
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,839
Speaker 4: Washington State cannot consistently move the chains. They can't put

1198
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,359
Speaker 4: together in methodical drives. They just rely on the big play.

1199
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:08,280
Speaker 4: But one item that you have to know about Wazoo

1200
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty eighth defensively in tackling. What does

1201
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 4: that mean? Nick Nash is going to get the ball fast.

1202
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 4: I expect him to look like a pinball bumper machine

1203
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 4: just banging into all of the Washington State defenders because

1204
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,040
Speaker 4: they can't tackle whatsoever. So again, this is another game

1205
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 4: where I lean to the over. I would look at

1206
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 4: Wazoo if we got down to ten, but really I

1207
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 4: do want San Jose State if we can get up

1208
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 4: to thirteen, so I'll probably play that lie, but the

1209
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 4: total I'm absolutely probably going to get in involved on

1210
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 4: the over all.

1211
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 2: Right, let's move on a second down. Our favorite overdog

1212
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:37,000
Speaker 2: of the week.

1213
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 4: It's called the overdog parlay.

1214
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Texas Tech here a little bit

1215
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 2: of that going against the market here and everyone's favorite

1216
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 2: darling Arizona State this year is three and ol reno

1217
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 2: against the spread. Texas Tech struggled the first two weeks,

1218
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 2: but can we like, let's connect some of the dots here.

1219
00:57:56,880 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 2: Arizona State number one. They beat Wyoming in the opener.

1220
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 2: Have you watched Wyoming? Wyoming? I lost at home own

1221
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: FCS team hasn't come close to covering in either game.

1222
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 2: They're bad. They beat Mississippi State by one possession at home.

1223
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 2: We're out played in the second half in that game.

1224
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 2: Got a defensive touchdown. Here's a team that has I

1225
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 2: think three defensive touchdowns. There are plus six or seven

1226
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 2: and turnovers already. Have you seen Mississippi State. They just

1227
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 2: got drilled at home by Toledo, the team that got

1228
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 2: out played by U Mats the week before, and then

1229
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: they beat Texas State. But I thought they were out

1230
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 2: played in that game. Big penalty flipped that game. They're

1231
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 2: down two touchdowns. They closed the three point underdog at

1232
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 2: Texas State. Now they're closing it. You're at two and

1233
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 2: a half, three point underdog at Texas Tech. Come on,

1234
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,439
Speaker 2: I have Texas Tech to touchdown better than Texas State.

1235
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 2: Texas Tech. Meanwhile, what their first game? They almost lose

1236
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 2: Dabbling Christian wasn't a good look. Second game they lose

1237
00:58:57,280 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 2: to Washington State, but they had a ton of injuries.

1238
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 2: I think six or seven of the eight fourth downs

1239
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 2: went against them. That's going to be every Texas Tech game.

1240
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 2: So the one thing I hate about this game I

1241
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 2: would ever lay. I hate laying over three with Texas

1242
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 2: Tech because there's gonna be fourth down barons. They're going

1243
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 2: to go for it a ton. They didn't get any

1244
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 2: of the fourth downs. Washington State got theirs in that game.

1245
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 2: They actually out game Washington State. They had they were

1246
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 2: negative three and turnovers, and they had a ton of injuries.

1247
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 2: They even lost four starters during the game and so

1248
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 2: but a misleading final score. Last week, they get healthier.

1249
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 2: TODs Brooks, their star running back, returns and it was

1250
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 2: their most dominant effort of the year and they blow

1251
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 2: out in North Texas think they should be getting a

1252
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 2: bit healthier across the board. They've had a ton of injuries.

1253
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 2: But Barren Morton look grat he finally looks healthy. I

1254
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 2: don't know. I think this is too cheap for Texas Tech,

1255
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: who's been over the past ten years of the most

1256
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 2: profitable home favor in fbs SO conference opening here at

1257
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 2: home pretty good home field advantage. I like Morton in

1258
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 2: company to get it done. Do you have any thoughts

1259
00:59:58,360 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 2: there and where's your favorite overdog?

1260
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 4: I wouldn't get in front of texastack right now. I

1261
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 4: watched that game in full, had a bet on them

1262
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 4: last week against North Texas. It was a defensive and

1263
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 4: offensive masterpiece. They dominated the mean Green I would not

1264
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 4: get in the way.

1265
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go.

1266
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 4: We're gonna shift back to Friday night lights. I really

1267
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 4: love Nebraska here against Illinois. I know you can't put

1268
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 4: it in a statu sheet, but I believe one of

1269
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 4: these teams is much more blue collar and tougher than

1270
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 4: the other. And the team that's tougher is gonna be

1271
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 4: Nebraska's Nebraska. Honestly, it's not for everyone. Well, Bielama talk

1272
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,080
Speaker 4: this week about the commitment that he needs to have

1273
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 4: against the run when facing Nebraska, and I can see

1274
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 4: why he thinks that angle because Korn really hasn't played

1275
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 4: anybody that's kind of run against them. The problem is

1276
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 4: that the Illinois rush has been great at getting two

1277
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 4: yards and stuff rate attempts fifteenth and stuff rate everything

1278
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 4: else is absolutely terrible ninety first and rushing success rate. Now,

1279
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:53,960
Speaker 4: Luke Altmeyer has been good. He's had to be good.

1280
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,360
Speaker 4: He's like, really the only offensive option for Illinois. So

1281
01:00:56,400 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 4: they're gonna try to grind it out and get in

1282
01:00:58,040 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 4: a punching match with Nebraska. And I don't think that's

1283
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 4: a very good thing to do Illinois. I mean, you

1284
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 4: look at the teams that they played, specifically Kansas, who

1285
01:01:04,440 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 4: won at the line of scrimmage on both sides of

1286
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:08,640
Speaker 4: the ball, which I didn't expect. I mean, I know

1287
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 4: Illinois won that game, but Kansas really kind of gave

1288
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 4: it to them. I mean, Nebraska should dominate on the

1289
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 4: defensive side, and then that advantage does not exist for

1290
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 4: Illinois on their defensive side of the ball. Right now,

1291
01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 4: the Cornhuskers are top thirty and havoc allowed. They've been

1292
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 4: protecting Dylan Royola they're producing quality drives thirty third in

1293
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 4: the nation, getting methodicals to go down and move the

1294
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 4: chains get into scoring position. And Royola is five to

1295
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 4: one TD to I in t right now just a

1296
01:01:32,480 --> 01:01:33,959
Speaker 4: single turnover worthy play.

1297
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 2: The number is not bad.

1298
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 4: I mean it's a number that I have right around

1299
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 4: where it's sitting at. There is just a massive difference

1300
01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 4: here and which team can actually establish the rush, which

1301
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 4: team can actually own the trench. That team is Nebraska,

1302
01:01:44,920 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 4: So give me them all the way. If this dips

1303
01:01:46,760 --> 01:01:48,919
Speaker 4: down around seven and a half. I think earlier today

1304
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:50,360
Speaker 4: there was a seven and a half minus one oh

1305
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 4: five that I bought down to seven at minus one fifteen.

1306
01:01:53,200 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 4: So just be conscious of the price you go to overtime.

1307
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 4: You're definitely wanting to sit on seven and a half

1308
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 4: and not eight. If you ever played that Oklahoma State

1309
01:01:59,160 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 4: Arkansas game.

1310
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think Nebraska's a big edge in the

1311
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 2: trenches on both sides of the ball, which should be

1312
01:02:03,800 --> 01:02:04,480
Speaker 2: the difference here.

1313
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 4: Your Warriors, you're ready played once and an half at

1314
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 4: a time, played again, play because we love the win

1315
01:02:12,600 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 4: and we're winners.

1316
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 2: Illinois has some talented backs, but they haven't been able

1317
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:17,880
Speaker 2: to get the run game going. You know, they should

1318
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 2: have lost to Kansas. They had Central Michigan played them

1319
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:25,680
Speaker 2: dead even in the first half. So let's go Corn.

1320
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 4: We're gonna absolutely murder you.

1321
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to third down, and it's

1322
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:32,120
Speaker 2: our underdog money.

1323
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 1: On parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends.

1324
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. I'm gonna go

1325
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 2: with ECU. I'm gonna go with the Pirates High Barons team.

1326
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 2: They're pretty wild on offense, they go fast, they keep

1327
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 2: turning it over, so maybe there's some regression there. This

1328
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 2: is one of the most improved teams in the country.

1329
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 2: Should have beat app State last week. They've led seventeen

1330
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:01,920
Speaker 2: to nothing in that game, but you know, they at

1331
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,120
Speaker 2: least have a pulse on offense. Now. The defense is

1332
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 2: still really good. But this is also mainly a fate

1333
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 2: of Liberty. Liberty has been extremely disappointing. They haven't covered yet.

1334
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:14,479
Speaker 2: They were in it with Campbell in the fourth quarter

1335
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 2: at home at in Mexico State, should have lost, and

1336
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 2: then against UTAP like through three quarters the game was

1337
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:25,720
Speaker 2: like pretty even. Why's Liberty looked so much worse this year? Injuries,

1338
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:28,160
Speaker 2: there's a lot of it. They've it injuries, an offensive line,

1339
01:03:28,200 --> 01:03:32,840
Speaker 2: defensive tackle, cornerback, wide receiver. They really missed Daniels at

1340
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 2: wide receiver, and now it doesn't look like Coolly, their

1341
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 2: running back, is going to play. He's the heartbeat of

1342
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:43,440
Speaker 2: that offense. Chawell didn't seem optimistic about it earlier in

1343
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:45,920
Speaker 2: the week that he said maybe we'll play with load management.

1344
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 2: So he's not gonna be at one hundred percent higher

1345
01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 2: variance game here. Yeah, this Liberty team is ripe to

1346
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 2: get picked off here. I also like ECU against the spread.

1347
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:56,840
Speaker 2: And the good thing about ECU against the spread is

1348
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 2: that if Liberty's up three and they're at the one

1349
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 2: yard line and they're going to take knees, because last

1350
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 2: week they were laying twenty three and a half, they

1351
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 2: were up eighteen at the one with a minute to go,

1352
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 2: up eighteen, UTEP's coach is calling time outs, down eighteen

1353
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 2: the other team at the one with a minute to go.

1354
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:18,080
Speaker 2: Chabell said his coaches were telling them punch it in,

1355
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 2: punch it in, and he said, nope, I've been on

1356
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 2: that end.

1357
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:23,600
Speaker 3: Somebody runs it up on me, and we're not gonna

1358
01:04:23,600 --> 01:04:25,400
Speaker 3: be about that. And I'm the one that controls that

1359
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:27,960
Speaker 3: we respect our opponents and respect them no matter what

1360
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:29,400
Speaker 3: they did. I mean, got I don't know why I

1361
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 3: took the time out. We're going to always, if we

1362
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:32,240
Speaker 3: have the opportunity, take the We're going to take any

1363
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 3: no matter what everybody else wants to do, no matter

1364
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 3: what the bookies want us to do, and all that stuff.

1365
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 2: That's what he said, So keep that in mind if

1366
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 2: you're ever fading or backing. Liberty is a big fare.

1367
01:04:40,840 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 2: But give me ECU here, any thoughts there and where

1368
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 2: are you going?

1369
01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 3: Uh?

1370
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 4: No, I love that game. There was some ECU preseason

1371
01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 4: to make the playoffs, some huge numbers out there. This

1372
01:04:48,760 --> 01:04:49,960
Speaker 4: was a game that they had to have and it

1373
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 4: was a game that I was willing to let ride

1374
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:53,240
Speaker 4: for some of those tickets. So I will say this,

1375
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 4: if we don't get that money line home, we're probably

1376
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 4: going to be picking off Liberty every week until it

1377
01:04:57,320 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 4: happens they're due. I am going to go with the

1378
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 4: the very first bet that I made this week on

1379
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 4: Sunday when lines came out, it was Rutgers plus five

1380
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 4: and a half. It's down to three and a half.

1381
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:07,760
Speaker 4: I don't need the three and a half. I like

1382
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 4: Rutgers on the money line here taking on Virginia Tech. Listen,

1383
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 4: this Greg Chiano team has an identity every single year,

1384
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 4: and that is they do not make offensive mistakes. Right now,

1385
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,120
Speaker 4: they are number one in the nation and havoc allowed,

1386
01:05:20,120 --> 01:05:22,120
Speaker 4: which means they don't allow tackles for loss, they don't

1387
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:24,560
Speaker 4: have fumbles, they don't throw interceptions. And you say, well,

1388
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 4: this has been a pretty soft schedule so far to date.

1389
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 4: I do trust Rutgers because they are consistently top ten

1390
01:05:31,000 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 4: and havoc allowed every single year. It's just the way

1391
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 4: that they play. And turns out that's the only thing

1392
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:37,800
Speaker 4: that the Virginia Tech defense has right now is defensive

1393
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 4: habit that's going for them. They're outside the top fifty

1394
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:43,000
Speaker 4: and rush pass success, right They're outside the top one

1395
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 4: hundred in tackling. I think we saw a lot of

1396
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 4: those things in that Vanderbilt win. The one aspect that

1397
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 4: Hokies can produce is havoc at a rank of nineteenth. Well,

1398
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 4: that's not going to work when it gets negated and

1399
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:56,000
Speaker 4: taken away by Rutgers. Here, Schiano knows what to do

1400
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 4: with time off, and I'm not talking about going to

1401
01:05:58,200 --> 01:06:00,960
Speaker 4: Bowls and dominating teams from the South. I'm talking he

1402
01:06:01,120 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 4: is seventeen to eight and one against the spread when

1403
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:04,440
Speaker 4: he gets extra time off, when he comes off of

1404
01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 4: bye weeks.

1405
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 3: Talk to our players all the time. We had to

1406
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:09,880
Speaker 3: stay in the moment. There's two great thieves in this world,

1407
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,640
Speaker 3: the past and the future, and we talk about chopping

1408
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:14,280
Speaker 3: the moment right now being in the present.

1409
01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 4: Well, that's what is their leader.

1410
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 2: I need to do that.

1411
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:19,560
Speaker 4: This is a great situational spot here against Virginia Tech

1412
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:21,840
Speaker 4: because who do they play next? The Hokies have a

1413
01:06:21,960 --> 01:06:24,960
Speaker 4: short week, six days to get prepared for an acc

1414
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:29,200
Speaker 4: Titanic matchup against Miami Florida. This is a great spot

1415
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:31,360
Speaker 4: for Rutgers. Let's go get it out right with the

1416
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 4: most solid, disciplined offense that's in college football right now

1417
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 4: with Rutgers.

1418
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 2: Votech also has a ton of injuries left tackle, tooting,

1419
01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 2: even at running back, Jennings receiver, someone that their linebackerrooms

1420
01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:45,920
Speaker 2: beat up. The lineback rooms not very good. They're run dy.

1421
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:47,960
Speaker 2: You know what Rutgers is gonna do. They're gonna run it.

1422
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 2: You handed them a nung guy. Votech Rundy has been

1423
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 2: horrendous so that's what Rutgers is going to do. Keep

1424
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:57,520
Speaker 2: this game neutral, State found the rock and vot Tech

1425
01:06:57,560 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 2: has just not been that impressive. So we're going ECU

1426
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 2: Rutgers underdog money on parlay like this one. Let's get

1427
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 2: it home before we get out of here. Let's go

1428
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 2: for it fourth down, pavor better the weekend.

1429
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 4: God damn, this is fun. I'm gonna pivot over to

1430
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 4: one of the biggest games of the week. I'm going

1431
01:07:15,520 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 4: to take an under inside of Utah and Oklahoma State.

1432
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:22,240
Speaker 2: Short and sweet for me, Louisiana, this is the one

1433
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:27,280
Speaker 2: you've been waiting for. Let's go with the raging cages.

1434
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:29,400
Speaker 2: This is the best situational spot on the board. And

1435
01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 2: I show value in the number too. Lane off back

1436
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 2: to back brutal games against Kansas State and Oklahoma games

1437
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 2: that were competitive, exhausting. Meanwhile, and now you're going on

1438
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 2: the road again to play Louisiana, who's coming off of

1439
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:48,800
Speaker 2: bye after playing two cupcakes, should be much more well rested.

1440
01:07:49,840 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 2: This is just a great spot to Lane. Also, now

1441
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 2: one and two, it's like we wanted to get one

1442
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 2: of those games for our playoff chances. They got usf

1443
01:07:58,200 --> 01:08:01,800
Speaker 2: on deck. There's a lot familiarity between these coaches because

1444
01:08:01,800 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 2: Summer all used to be at Troy. I think he's

1445
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 2: the better coach, but Louisiana's that extra time for pair here.

1446
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 2: This is the brutal spot. Give me the rage in cajuns.

1447
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 2: I think you agree there right?

1448
01:08:13,080 --> 01:08:13,240
Speaker 3: Oh?

1449
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 4: I wrote this up for action beginning of the week.

1450
01:08:16,080 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 4: Was able to get three and a half. But that thing.

1451
01:08:17,760 --> 01:08:19,599
Speaker 4: If you're listening to this and you read this, try

1452
01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:20,240
Speaker 4: to go get a three.

1453
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:22,759
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us. Thanks as always

1454
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:24,439
Speaker 2: the column for joining me. Thanks to our producer Mat

1455
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: Mitchell on the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all

1456
01:08:26,280 --> 01:08:28,800
Speaker 2: of you for tuning in. Don't forget about the voicemails,

1457
01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:30,680
Speaker 2: because we will be back Monday morning with our week

1458
01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:32,640
Speaker 2: four recap, episode nine to five nine dead Beat. It's

1459
01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 2: always on my Twitter for x profile as well. We'll

1460
01:08:35,280 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 2: be back Saturday, ten thirday in Eastern for the live show.

1461
01:08:37,920 --> 01:08:40,679
Speaker 2: Make sure you check that out on the new BBOC

1462
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 2: YouTube channel. Make sure you subscribe there hit that like button.

1463
01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:46,479
Speaker 2: Also unsubscribe, subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe. You know the drill on

1464
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:49,280
Speaker 2: the podcast. Leave a five star review really helps us out.

1465
01:08:49,640 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 2: Tell a friend, Tell an enemy. Let's have a winning weekend.

1466
01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 2: Bloomer sooner.

1467
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:56,519
Speaker 6: That's a good thing.

1468
01:08:56,880 --> 01:09:00,719
Speaker 2: Well, pig Suie, let's get them all done for this weekend.

1469
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:03,120
Speaker 2: The Slight's are only going to get better. Thanks, as

1470
01:09:03,120 --> 01:09:07,960
Speaker 2: always guys for tuning in. We will see you on Saturday. Cheers.

1471
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:09,160
Speaker 4: Peace Out.

1472
01:09:18,400 --> 01:09:22,880
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1473
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1474
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