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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Crushed it. It's good

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in y'all spect I'm sitting.

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Speaker 2: Up to catch that.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right. This is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 1: You want to pull. And we are plumped away and

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Speaker 1: welcome to another edition of the Action Network Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybon here with Sean Kerner

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Speaker 1: as always, and today we'll be talking about wide receivers

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Speaker 1: and we have a very very special guest, my former

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Speaker 1: partner in crime at four for four, uh one half

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Speaker 1: of the DFS MVP podcast back in the day when

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Speaker 1: I was a part of it, My guy TJ Hernandez,

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Speaker 1: the director of DFS at four for four. Tj, I'm

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Speaker 1: really glad to have you on. Thanks for coming on.

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Speaker 1: What's going on? Man?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, man, good to be back. Good to be talking

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Speaker 4: to you guys. Just gearing up for this season like

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Speaker 4: you guys. I mean, I've been out on these best

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Speaker 4: ball streets pretty heavy. So I mean we're gonna be

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Speaker 4: talking ADP today, which I think people might just be

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Speaker 4: getting accustomed to.

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Speaker 3: But we've been on this ground for a minute, right.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, It's kind of fun for me because this

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Speaker 1: is the first year I've like gotten really deep into

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Speaker 1: the NBA, and it's NBA obviously took like so much

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Speaker 1: longer than it usually does. So it almost feels like

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Speaker 1: back in the day, like just kind of like jumping

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Speaker 1: into fantasy and it feels. It feels good. It feels good, Sean,

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Speaker 1: how you feeling. And it rained, it rained in southern California, Sean,

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Speaker 1: what's going on? Man?

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Speaker 2: Believe it or not, Ray, but on it. It does happen.

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Speaker 2: It's rare, but it does rain here occasionally.

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Speaker 1: Not my favorite, but it's it's also you know, throwback

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Speaker 1: Thursday for everybody out there. So TJ, I see you

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Speaker 1: with the jersey. Aren't you telling what you what? You're rocket?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I got the two thousand and five team Eric Decker Jets,

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Speaker 4: you know, arguably my best dfs here ever, mostly because

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Speaker 4: we're getting Eric Decker for six k every week they

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Speaker 4: went as a price.

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Speaker 3: So throwing that and then afore in the Green I

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Speaker 3: got to rock my a.

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Speaker 4: So the ACE technically isn't a throwback, but it has

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Speaker 4: the fiftieth Anniversary patch commemorating the A's fiftieth year in Oakland.

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Speaker 4: So that year they went to the Kelly Green every

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Speaker 4: Friday home game from sixty eight. Now they're pretty much

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Speaker 4: just using the Kelly Green as much as they want.

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Speaker 4: But one of my favorite hats in the match to Deckers,

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Speaker 4: So I figured I'm throw it on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what's crazy. I'm I'm a Giants fan.

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Speaker 1: I'm from New York obviously, but I honestly will give

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Speaker 1: the Jets. I think the Jets have the better jerseys,

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Speaker 1: especially throwbacks, like I actually own it. I actually owned

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Speaker 1: multiple three Jets throwback jerseys. Like I'm not even gonna

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Speaker 1: tell people because I let them see him as we

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Speaker 1: they kind of unfold. But Sean, I think this is

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Speaker 1: the first time somebody's rocking a baseball hat on a

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Speaker 1: pot challenging your hat game, man, true true.

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Speaker 2: Love love the A. So love Hecking. But yeah, this

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Speaker 2: is an NFL pod TJ.

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Speaker 3: Yeah No, I just I had to. I had to

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Speaker 3: give a little love, you know to the A's.

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Speaker 1: Freak had my green on, yeah, man, and I got

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Speaker 1: on the ninety eight Randy Moss. This is one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite jerseys. I actually traveled to the Mitchell and

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Speaker 1: Nest store in Philly to get this throwback. It was

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Speaker 1: like impossible to find online. So rocking the ninety eight, Randy.

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Speaker 1: This is one of my favorite wide receiver seasons of

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Speaker 1: all time and one of my favorite receivers. So that's

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Speaker 1: what we're doing. But let's get right into this these

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Speaker 1: wide receivers. TJ. I'll start with you just because there's

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Speaker 1: kind of switching gears. We were talking with Silver and

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Speaker 1: Radcliff about quarterbacks, now we're talking wide out. So what's

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Speaker 1: your kind of just general wide receiver strategy heading into

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Speaker 1: this year specifically because it kind of changes year by

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Speaker 1: year depending on the ADP and stuff. So what's your

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Speaker 1: kind of general strategy in fantasy? And I know you've

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Speaker 1: been playing a lot of best balls.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, draft as many good ones as possible. I mean,

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Speaker 4: unless unless I'm I'm in the top four picks like

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Speaker 4: we are. Always kind of depends on your ADP or

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Speaker 4: how you're going to start out your draft, right, So

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Speaker 4: if you have a top four, top five pick, pretty

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Speaker 4: much consensus running back, and I think that's probably the

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Speaker 4: sharp move after you get to six is when you

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Speaker 4: could really start making decisions. So if I'm in the

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Speaker 4: back half of the draft, it's usually a wide receiver

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Speaker 4: or a tight end for me. Ironically, because Kelsey and

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Speaker 4: Tyreek are right next to each other, I don't get

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Speaker 4: as much Tyreek because I like taking Kelsey there instead,

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Speaker 4: so even though he is my wide receiver one, and

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Speaker 4: just don't end up with him that much because of

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Speaker 4: that reason. And then I like to get another, like

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Speaker 4: a high end tight end, and then just keep loading

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Speaker 4: up on pass catchers.

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Speaker 3: So the position is crazy deep.

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Speaker 4: So you think the argument would be, well, then you

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Speaker 4: don't need a top guy, but I really just want

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Speaker 4: as many, like close to top twenty four, top twelve

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Speaker 4: wide receivers on my team, especially in PPR leagues, like

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Speaker 4: three wide receivers in the flex, I'm trying to start

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Speaker 4: four wide receivers. I'm comfortable enough that I can figure

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Speaker 4: out my running backs, especially this year, so we're seeing

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Speaker 4: kind of adp of those midchier wide receivers jumps, some

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Speaker 4: of these what we've called the running back dead zone before.

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Speaker 4: Now they're kind of becoming outside of the deazone because

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Speaker 4: they're falling so far. So I always kind of default

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Speaker 4: if I'm not in the top four or five. Things

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Speaker 4: like default two is your running back strategy a lot

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Speaker 4: just because I love loading up on pass catchers.

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Speaker 1: That's really interesting. Yeah, it's It really does kind of

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Speaker 1: depend on your draft choice. I think, Sean, do you

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Speaker 1: do you kind of where are you at with this

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Speaker 1: strategy like his top four top five kind of when

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Speaker 1: you're first thinking about wide receiver. And I really thought

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Speaker 1: what TJ said was interesting because we've talked about this

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Speaker 1: a million times. So like, are you also on team

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Speaker 1: Kelsey over Team Tyreek?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I'm on Team Kelsey over Tyreek. I just think

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Speaker 2: the drop off of the positions too massive to pass

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Speaker 2: them up. And you know, the wide receiver position. I

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Speaker 2: don't go on with the specific plan, but you know,

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Speaker 2: like the drop off is this gradual through the entire position.

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Speaker 2: So I usually pick the times where you know, like

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Speaker 2: running back, we'll talk about it in this pod, but

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Speaker 2: running back, when there's a steep drop off, I target

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Speaker 2: running back, I fade receiver, knowing I can get you know,

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Speaker 2: an equal white out around or two later. So I

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Speaker 2: think wide receiver I have the most flexibility. Like TJ said,

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Speaker 2: in best Ball formats, specifically you just need to load up. Yes,

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Speaker 2: it's deep, but there does reach a point where you

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Speaker 2: don't want to be stuck taking you know, like John

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Speaker 2: Brown as your wide receiver four or something, So you

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Speaker 2: want to just be target as often as possible, but

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Speaker 2: strategically so it's you know, I go in every draft

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Speaker 2: with an open mind. When it comes to white out.

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Speaker 1: We went up to us on a on a wide

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Speaker 1: receiver one pod. John Brown is like the second receiver.

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Speaker 1: Yeah right, yeah, all we need is like a Nelson Aguilar,

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Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne or somebody. But all right, so let's let's

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Speaker 1: jump right in. Because according to the Fantasy Pros consensus

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Speaker 1: average draft position, Tyreek k in PPR Tyreek across the board.

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Speaker 1: But I'm using the Ppryreek Hill is the number one

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Speaker 1: wide receiver taking tj uh. I know you're going Kelsey

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Speaker 1: over Tyreek more often than that. But if Tyreek Hill

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Speaker 1: is still number one on your board, and who is

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Speaker 1: there anyone that kind of is a challenger to him

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Speaker 1: that you could could you think maybe before the season

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Speaker 1: you would you would think about changing that. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: When when we recorded before we recorded this this morning,

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Speaker 4: at basically.

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Speaker 3: Said that it sounds like Aaron Rodgers is going.

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Speaker 4: To play, So with with one hundred percent, Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 4: playing the volume that Adams gets with a comparable scoring

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Speaker 4: rate to Tyreek Killers over the last three years, I'm

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Speaker 4: taking Adams now that we know Adams probably my one

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Speaker 4: point six after the top five running backs, I'm throwing

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Speaker 4: Zeke in there with with the big four. So I actually,

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Speaker 4: I actually do like Adams over hill now that it

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Speaker 4: sounds like we're pretty sure that Rogers is playing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I know there's the wide receiver pot, but

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Speaker 1: I do like that Zeke call. We did a pot

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Speaker 1: a few weeks ago and I was like, my favorite,

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Speaker 1: like Dynasty target even is Zeke right now because his

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Speaker 1: value is just so low. So I do like that call. Sean,

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Speaker 1: where are you on this Tyreek versus DeVante situation? Given

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Speaker 1: the news we just got about Aaron Rodgers, which it

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Speaker 1: looks like he will be back in Green Bay, but

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Speaker 1: only for this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have Kyry just a little bit ahead.

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Speaker 2: But you can't go wrong with either. You know, I

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Speaker 2: think Rogers is coming off of just you know, a

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Speaker 2: historic season. He had a nine point one touchdown rate,

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Speaker 2: So you know, Adams, I don't think he's gonna score

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Speaker 2: eighteen touchdowns again, but I can't really argue taking either.

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Speaker 2: I do like Tyreek just because you know, he's still

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Speaker 2: in his prime at twenty seven. Patrick Mahomes is only

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Speaker 2: going to get better. I mean, Patrick Mahomes hasn't even

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Speaker 2: technically hit his prime yet. So I like the idea

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Speaker 2: of just investing in the offense as much as possible.

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Speaker 2: And the Chiefs really did. They leaned on Tyreek even

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Speaker 2: more in the second half of last season. Ye he

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Speaker 2: had ten he had ten targets and five of the

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Speaker 2: last seven games, so we could see that massive usage

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Speaker 2: again this year. And he is you know, he is

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Speaker 2: a super high ceiling. We know that, but he does

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Speaker 2: have a high floor now. He had either eighty five

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Speaker 2: scrimmage yards or a touchdown in thirteen to fifteen games,

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Speaker 2: So he's gonna get you a great score every week.

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Speaker 2: And he chips in those rushing stats that you you

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Speaker 2: only realize when you're making projections that he offers you know,

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Speaker 2: a higher floor with that as well. You know, you

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Speaker 2: had three games with twenty or more rushing yards chipped

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Speaker 2: in a couple of rushing touchdowns, so he hads that

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Speaker 2: as well. So He's still my number one ride receiver

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Speaker 2: and we saw you know, he'll have weeks where he'll

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Speaker 2: single handley win your matchup, like that game against the Buccaneers.

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Speaker 2: We had two hundred yards in the first quarter and

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns. Like he has that insane ceiling that I

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Speaker 2: love to get as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think for me, the only thing that kind

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Speaker 1: of tilts me toward Davante if if you know Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers is good to go, is that Like in Casey,

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Speaker 1: you have this Tyrek and Kelsey situation where I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's it's almost it just defense dependent, Like there's

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Speaker 1: stretches where the defense is like, okay, we got to

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Speaker 1: take away Travis Kelsey. He's our number one guy. We're

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Speaker 1: taken away. And that's what you kind of saw down

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Speaker 1: the second half of the season. You know, Tyreek is

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Speaker 1: going to go off a little more and then a

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Speaker 1: certain time, you know, if Tyreek has a big game

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Speaker 1: early in the year, maybe defenses, you know, try to

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Speaker 1: take him away a little more for the next six weeks.

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Speaker 1: So so I think it's a little more volatile. Whereas

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Speaker 1: at Green Bay, and this is why Aaron Rodgers wants

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Speaker 1: to leave, they have nobody there, Like DeVante Adams is

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Speaker 1: gonna get triple covered and he's still gonna get open,

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Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers still gonna hit him. He scored double

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Speaker 1: digit touchdowns in four of the last five years, He's

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Speaker 1: had more than thirteen hundred and seventy yards and two

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Speaker 1: of the past three. So I don't think you can

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Speaker 1: go wrong with either. And if I'm in the best ball,

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Speaker 1: I'm probably going like, you know, fifty five percent Devonte,

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Speaker 1: forty five percent Tyreek if I have that pick one

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Speaker 1: hundred times. But I think I wean slightly toward Devonte

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Speaker 1: as long as Aaron Rodgers is good to go.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Rogers might just do the middle finger.

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Speaker 4: I'm throwing ninety five percent of the time and eighty

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Speaker 4: five percent of them we're going to Devonte. Like with

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Speaker 4: the seventeen game season, Davonte might see like over two

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Speaker 4: hundred tarkets this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think I mentioned that to Sean once. I

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Speaker 1: think it was last year. It's like, Davante Adams is

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers like, fuck you target. It's exactly, It's right.

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Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, you guys don't want to give me

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Speaker 1: anyone to throw to. You want to give me Devin

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Speaker 1: Funcius and all this other like, okay, like I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna throw to DeVante every time, and Davante is kind

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Speaker 1: of like, oh y, I'm gonna triple cover me and

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Speaker 1: not get me no help. I'm still gonna get open.

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Speaker 1: I'm still gonna break angle. So I like that. I

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Speaker 1: like that combination a whole lot, as do Tyreek in

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Speaker 1: ma Homes obviously, but I like, I always have to

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Speaker 1: remind people. I think when we do a new like

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Speaker 1: you number one receiver, number one whatever position podcast the

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Speaker 1: first few rounds, you're not gonna win your draft, Like,

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Speaker 1: you're not gonna win it. So don't like stress over

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Speaker 1: DeVante versus Tyreek. Like, the only way that's really gonna

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Speaker 1: screw up is if one of them gets hurt. And

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Speaker 1: you know they're both still in their twenties. You know,

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Speaker 1: both of them, you know, relatively healthy in their careers,

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Speaker 1: so I wouldn't stress it too much. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: and it's an interesting top you know, top tier here

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Speaker 1: because Stefan Diggs number three in ADP TJ. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is another guy he could conceivably finish number one

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Speaker 1: with the way the bill started throwing it around the

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Speaker 1: yard and unlike you know, like like he he actually

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Speaker 1: has guys around him that take just enough pressure off

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Speaker 1: of him to where he can catch those you know,

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Speaker 1: eight to nine balls a game. What do you think

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Speaker 1: about Stefan Diggs in relation to the top three and

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Speaker 1: and in relation to DeAndre Hopkins is going forth?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I actually think, like I mean, sure

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Speaker 4: Tyreeken and DeVante a clear one too, I think, But

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Speaker 4: I think that like next tier one A or whatever,

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Speaker 4: like you said, I don't think we really need to

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Speaker 4: be crazy nitpicking about who we're going here, just that

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Speaker 4: we have them together. We have these super high volume

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Speaker 4: guys and Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins, and I guess we'll

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Speaker 4: probably get to the discussion a second, I say in

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Speaker 4: Calvin Ridley now too. But yeah, the Bills aren't offense

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Speaker 4: where he's gonna be the clear number one there, Like

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Speaker 4: you said, they're good. They're not gonna have any great

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Speaker 4: guys there. Amano Sanders is good. He's just gonna be

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Speaker 4: another good guy. He's you know, thirty four going to

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Speaker 4: a new team, obviously an upgrade quarterback, but he's not

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Speaker 4: gonna cause Digs to go down to like eight targets

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Speaker 4: or something like that, like gonna Diggs is gonna get

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Speaker 4: his And people look.

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Speaker 3: At this Buffalo offense last year.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of people sometimes get in the

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Speaker 4: trap of saying, oh, this team's going to regress only

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Speaker 4: because they had big numbers. Like big numbers doesn't mean

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Speaker 4: a team's going to regress. Like their scoring rates were

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Speaker 4: pretty much on par with how they were moving the ball.

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Speaker 4: They were just moving the ball super effectively, and they decided, hey,

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Speaker 4: we're gonna throw as much as possible. I think they

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Speaker 4: had a game where they ran like five times or something.

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Speaker 4: Because passing works with this combo with this team and

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Speaker 4: Brian dables down to do that. So I actually don't

296
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Speaker 4: think this offense is one that's really going to use

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Speaker 4: the word to regress much. I think they can really

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Speaker 4: sustain what they're doing, like we've seen with the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: with the Packers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and passing just works period, Like the one of

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Speaker 1: the smartest organizations I think in football. So you know,

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Speaker 1: it kind of it doesn't scare me. You know, when

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Speaker 1: a guy's on a bill, it's like I'm never scared away.

304
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 1: Like even the running backs, I feel like, you know,

305
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 1: they'll probably still pay off their ADP. And in Stefan Diggs,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Sean, how many touchdowns do you have him

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Speaker 1: projected for this year? Because he's never actually had a

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Speaker 1: double digit touchdown season. He's eight nine six' eight the

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Speaker 1: last four, years so he's got some room to.

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Speaker 2: Grow, yeah, yes room to. Grow But i'm projecting him

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Speaker 2: eight point, One so not projecting the double digit touch on,

312
00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 2: outcome although that's certainly. Possible but you, know LIKE tj

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Speaker 2: mentioned with The Aaron rodgers, NEWS i Have Tyrek hill

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00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,800
Speaker 2: And DeVante adams In tier one all by, themselves and

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00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,240
Speaker 2: there's a bit of a drop, off and then you

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00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:45,680
Speaker 2: have this next tier WHERE i Have digs at the.

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Speaker 2: Top he's my number three wide, receiver and you know

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Speaker 2: he was, a you, know a key factor In josh

319
00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,240
Speaker 2: Allen zer three. Breakout but so is offensive Corner Brian.

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Speaker 2: Dables so the fact that they retained both, guys, LIKE

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Speaker 2: i think there's gonna be enough continuity on this offense

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Speaker 2: WHERE i not expecting much regression at. All you, Know

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Speaker 2: dable dialed up the second highest pass rate neutral. Situations

324
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Speaker 2: he dialed the most play action dropbacks For Josh allen last,

325
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Speaker 2: year WHICH i think was a huge part in the.

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Speaker 2: Success so you, know this is an OFFENSE i went

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Speaker 2: to invest. In that's WHY i do like Targeting digs

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Speaker 2: if he falls with, me you, know at the end

329
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Speaker 2: of the first. Round but, yeah LIKE i, said this

330
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Speaker 2: is the beginning of like the second tier of the

331
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Speaker 2: elite wide receiver ones for.

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Speaker 1: Me, yeah AND i think. It diggs is just he's

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Speaker 1: really impressive because remember the year before In, minnesota he

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Speaker 1: like the volume wasn't the, greatest but he was like

335
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Speaker 1: the leagues leading deep ball. Receiver and then you know

336
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 1: last year he's The fantasy wide receiver, three but he's

337
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 1: number thirty eight in deep, yardage you, know so like

338
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 1: he can just do it a bunch of different. Ways

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00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,720
Speaker 1: that's WHY i Like. Digs and then and then we

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Speaker 1: get To DeAndre. HOPKINS i do have digs Over. HOPKINS.

341
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 1: Tj what do you think About? HOPKINS i know he's

342
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,240
Speaker 1: been in the news a little, bit but the bottom line,

343
00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 1: is you know he's gonna be there In arizona with

344
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 1: with a pretty good offensive mind In, kingsbury good quarterback

345
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 1: In kai where maybe getting some help at wide. Receiver you,

346
00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 1: know they got more in the draft in AN aj of,

347
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 1: COURSE i don't know how much he can. Do but

348
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts On DeAndre?

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Speaker 4: Hopkins, YEAH i mean HE'S i, think regardless of the

350
00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 4: new players, there his situation should be relatively. Similar like

351
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 4: we Saw Christian Kurkt Larry fitzgerald next to, him he

352
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 4: still did his. Thing and those are the, players those

353
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,600
Speaker 4: are the kind of volumes that the new receivers might get,

354
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 4: There they're gonna throw it up to. Him he's gonna

355
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 4: get his. Targets like the worry going into the offense

356
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,440
Speaker 4: last year was is he to be able to maintain

357
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 4: this crazy dominant target, Share and he, did which a

358
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:45,000
Speaker 4: lot of people were surprised. BY i tend to maintain that.

359
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 4: Wide receivers that demand crazy high target shairs usually keep

360
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 4: those because there's a reason they have high target shaps

361
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 4: because they're really damn good. Receivers so they're smart enough

362
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 4: to keep giving it to, him throwing it up to.

363
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Speaker 4: HIM i, mean the ONLY i don't even have a

364
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 4: knock On. Hopkins it's just THAT i think WHERE adp

365
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,919
Speaker 4: is wrong right now Our CONCERTSANUS adp is That calvin

366
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 4: really should be ahead of.

367
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Speaker 1: It, oh Col, sean what do you think about that.

368
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 1: One that's your, Guy Calvin. Ridley that is ye WITH

369
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 1: tj one hundred percent, there that's not even a hot.

370
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 1: Take i'm all for.

371
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 2: That but, yeah you, know last year we Saw hopkins

372
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 2: a dot drop a. Bit you know it's nine point,

373
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 2: zero but you know they gave him a ton of

374
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 2: hypercenta his throw so he had a seventy catch. Rate

375
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 2: and you, know despite the low a, dot despite the

376
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 2: low touchdown total six which is insanely low for elite wide,

377
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,200
Speaker 2: receiver he still had a massive weekly ceiling just based

378
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 2: on his target. Share so he actually Tied DeVante adams

379
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 2: for the league high with eight games of top to

380
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,440
Speaker 2: top twelve wide receiver value. Weeks so he does still

381
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 2: have a massive ceiling despite you, know certain things about

382
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,120
Speaker 2: his playing style that doesn't contribute. That SO i love, him,

383
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 2: although like you, mentioned he is in the. News you,

384
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 2: know there's a little bit of uncertainty there if he'll

385
00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,119
Speaker 2: play this, YEAR i guarantee he'll probably. Play but when

386
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,159
Speaker 2: it comes to like this, tier if there's any, UNCERTAINTY

387
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,000
Speaker 2: i just break the tie by you, know picking somebody

388
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 2: that's less Uncertain so that's, why you, know Like Calvin,

389
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:08,959
Speaker 2: RIDLEY i would take Over hopkins right.

390
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: Now, YEAH i don't Think i'm there. Yet ridley AND

391
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,920
Speaker 1: i Love, really but my, one, LIKE i think there's

392
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 1: some uncertainty With really. Too number one is we really

393
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 1: don't know how Exactly Arthur smith is going to affect

394
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 1: that offense in terms of the. Volume AND i say

395
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: that only because not BECAUSE i think they're going to

396
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 1: go back to, like you, know what they did In,

397
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 1: tennessee which is obviously predicated on Having Derrick, henry but

398
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:37,600
Speaker 1: because The falcons did have like an outlying number of

399
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 1: past attempts over the last couple of, years, right like

400
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 1: they were not just like they are the most past

401
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 1: heavy team in the league pretty much, throughout you, know

402
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: the last two years With ridley, here and you, know

403
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,639
Speaker 1: if that just goes back to like we average or

404
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,679
Speaker 1: a little bit, above that changes. Things and, also you,

405
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: know this is really his, first his first full, Year

406
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: LIKE i, know he's had some big games Without, julio

407
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 1: but this is gonna be his like first full year

408
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,639
Speaker 1: as that number one every, weekend week, out you, know

409
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 1: having to deal with that, coverage you, know that primary,

410
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 1: coverage all that with more time to, plan you, know

411
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 1: a whole off seasons for these defensive coordinators are thinking

412
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 1: like this as opposed to, like, oh any given, Week

413
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 1: julio's out will just change, that you, know our game.

414
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 1: Plan SO i still Think hopkins, Can LIKE i just

415
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 1: THINK i Think hopkins still more skilled, receiver so that

416
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 1: THAT'S i still have him over On, ridley BUT i

417
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 1: could certainly see the argument for. It and it's another

418
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: situation Where i'm in bestball probably going like sixty forty

419
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: sixty five thirty Five hopkins Over, ridley but by no

420
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 1: means WHAT i WOULD i fade? Him and then another

421
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 1: guy WHO i think this is where another you, know

422
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 1: volume kind of comes into. Play but another guy who's

423
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,359
Speaker 1: extremely skilled entering his prime quarterback who always is going

424
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: to put up, numbers so you know what it's gonna. Be

425
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 1: there IS Dk, METCALF. Tj is there a tear drop

426
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 1: off for you Between, Hopkins ridley and Then Metcalf or

427
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 1: Is metcalf kind of there for you as? Well?

428
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 4: YEAH i Think metcalf is kind of where we Start tier.

429
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 4: Two LIKE i think the guys we talked About tier

430
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 4: ONE a and ONE b kind OF i mean the

431
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 4: concern IS i don't think they're gonna be this crazy

432
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 4: run heavy team that they were, before even though they

433
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 4: did go back to hashtag established the run after you,

434
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 4: know the first eight games or. Whatever but at the same,

435
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 4: time you Know, metcalf he's that eight targets per game

436
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 4: that he can see in that. Offense that's quite a

437
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 4: big difference from nine and a half ten eleven targets per.

438
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 4: Game that leaves room for a lot of. Volatility and,

439
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,880
Speaker 4: YEAH i mean he he can. Be he has tied

440
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 4: to rust and he is going to put up these

441
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 4: big games because he is a high a dot, guy

442
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 4: but a lot high a dot and sometimes lower targets

443
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 4: can lead to some really bad bus. Games AND i

444
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 4: think he'll have a couple of those in the bag

445
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 4: and leave owners really. Frustrated you're not going to take

446
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 4: them out of your, lineup BUT i think there is

447
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 4: a clear drop, off you, know Putting ridley back up

448
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 4: there with those guys after really And, hopkins T dk And.

449
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 1: Sean what are your thoughts On metcalf because you know

450
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 1: it is a volume thing with him first and, Foremost

451
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: so where did he kind of tier in for?

452
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 2: You, yeah he's he's at the bottom of this second,

453
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 2: Tier SO i Have, Diggs Ridley, hopkins and Then, metcalf Then.

454
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 2: Jefferson so you, KNOW i think That, metcalf you're sort

455
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 2: of buying it on his upside because we haven't seen

456
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 2: him hit his peak. Yet SO i like getting guys

457
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: before they hit their. Peak So i'm willing to overspend

458
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 2: on a guy LIKE. DK i do believe in. HIM i,

459
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 2: think you know it's possible That Shane waldron is able

460
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 2: to unlock you, Know Russell wilson AND Dk, mapps you,

461
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 2: know true. Ceiling so you, know he's a guy WHERE

462
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 2: i think his floor is so high THAT i don't

463
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: see him busting at this. Range so the fact that

464
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 2: he has number one wide receiver overall, Potential i'm all

465
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: for targeting right.

466
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 4: Here, YEAH i should, clarify, LIKE i don't think he's

467
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 4: gonna be like none of these guys in these top like,

468
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 4: six Like i'm taking all of them where they're going top,

469
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 4: SEVEN i should, say but, LIKE i don't.

470
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 3: THINK dk is gonna. BUST i think he could have

471
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 3: some bust, weeks BUT i don't think you'll ca.

472
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Yeah and you know what's interesting to me

473
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 1: Because i'm high ON. DK i mean he's actually going

474
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 1: ahead Of ridley and the CONSENSUS. Adp obviously it's different

475
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: for different, sites But metcalf's actually at, five really at. Six.

476
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: Uh the Reason i'm really excited ABOUT dk is because

477
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 1: listen to the way we're kind of talking about. Him

478
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,439
Speaker 1: volume is a. Problem you, know will they Unlock Russell,

479
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: Wilson will they go you, know be his run they

480
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: maybe they won't be as run heavy as they were

481
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: in the. Past seattle was seventeenth in past attempts last YEAR.

482
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 1: Dk metcalf finishes the wide receiver. Six Hyler lockett finishes

483
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 1: the wide receiver. Eight, like there's a lot of production

484
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: to go around on his team and it may not

485
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 1: have even hit its. Ceiling If seattle can jump into

486
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 1: that top ten in in past attempts or something like.

487
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: That so, like and that's you, Know, Lockett he's been

488
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: pretty healthy these last couple of. Years you, KNOW i

489
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: Think metcalf is more likely to stay. Healthy he's a

490
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: little bit you, know just based on his body type and.

491
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: Whatnot SO i, MEAN i think the sky's the women For.

492
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 1: METCALF i have no qualms with taking him in the top.

493
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 1: FIVE i wouldn't take him Over. HOPKINS i could see

494
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 1: the arguments for taking him Over, ridley just because you, know,

495
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: AGAIN i think there's you, know if The falcons go

496
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: to a normal amount of pass, Attempts Russell wilson's better

497
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: Than Matt ryan and so, on AND i Think metcalf's

498
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: a better receiver Than. Ridley so it's it's Like i'm

499
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,919
Speaker 1: not down on, really BUT i could See ridley anywhere

500
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: in like that four to six range where you, know

501
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: not like locked into any one of those. Spots AND

502
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,159
Speaker 1: i love METCAV i Think metcalf could finishes if he

503
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 1: gets a little more value because he has room to

504
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 1: grow one hundred twenty nine. Targets of all the top six,

505
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: wideouts he had the fewest targets at one twenty, Nine

506
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: so this room to grow there Justin, Jefferson, NOW, tj

507
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: this is another. GUY i, mean the sky's got to

508
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: be the woman for. Him first, season fourteen hundred yards

509
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: and seven scores on one hundred and twenty five. Targets

510
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,959
Speaker 1: that's just ridiculous production her, target which you do expect

511
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: to regress a little just because like that's, godly like

512
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: That's hall Of fame level. Stuff but LIKE i guess

513
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: the question is how much regression and is he still

514
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 1: does he have one wide receiver one overall, UPSIDE i

515
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 1: guess is the question HE.

516
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 4: I don't know if he has wide receiver one overall

517
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 4: upside BECAUSE i love all the other guys ahead of

518
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 4: him so, Much BUT i think HE i don't think

519
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 4: he's much of a risk to finish below HIS. Adpf

520
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: we saw last year said there were a crazy efficient,

521
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 4: offense The vikings. Passing obviously that had a lot to

522
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 4: do With Justin jefferson being, there but But cousins was

523
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 4: also being very efficient when he was throwing To Adam

524
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 4: daland SO i do think the offense as a whole will.

525
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 4: Regress WHAT i do think will maintain is that over

526
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 4: the second half of the, season we Saw Justin jefferson

527
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 4: get that really huge target share that he didn't have

528
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,719
Speaker 4: in the first half average ten point one per target pre.

529
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 3: Game that puts Mon ark with like the top three

530
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 3: or four guys in the.

531
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 4: LEAGUE i think that's the part that stays that huge target,

532
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 4: share And feeland is the one that gets hurt more

533
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 4: from the offens and Probably Kirk cousins regressive progression as.

534
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 3: Well but we see you're in and you're.

535
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 4: Out, like the reason that we're really confident we're nitpicking

536
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 4: these Tygree Kill Calvin Ridley davonte guys is because we

537
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 4: know the guys that can get that tim plus targets per,

538
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: game they're just gonna, ball regardless of how mediocre their

539
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 4: offense might, be a regression might might come into. Play

540
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 4: that volume is just. Unmatched AND i think Justin jefferson

541
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 4: reaches that like twenty seven percent target share lead two

542
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: that we.

543
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,439
Speaker 1: Love, yeah and that's something that you pointed out EARLIER.

544
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: Tj like guys who get like target shairs are very,

545
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: sticky and that that kind of translates to another stat

546
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: which a little less, known but kind it's the same,

547
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: idea which is just targets per route. Run and like

548
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: that's really what's going to kind of carry. Over and

549
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: so when a guy like you see a guy Like,

550
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: jefferson you, know put up good numbers in that area

551
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: in year, one you kind of only expected to. Continue

552
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 1: AND i, mean you know there's really no one else you,

553
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: know it's dealing who's under say still on the downside

554
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: of his. Career but like those two guys are just

555
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 1: locked into such a huge target, chair and then you're

556
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: gonna Have smith And cook kind of fighting for. Scratch

557
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: but the target chair is kind of very locked. IN

558
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: i would say In, minnesota you're not really going to

559
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: have much at the last wide receiver. Spot so, yeah

560
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: the sky's women for. Him, sean what do you think Of? Jefferson,

561
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: YEAH i agree.

562
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 2: The sky's limit With jefferson WHERE i, think you, know

563
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 2: you can make a case for him being the wide

564
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: receiver one in like dynasty, formats but for this SEASON

565
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: i have him as wide receiver. Seven you know that

566
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 2: the passing game definitely benefited from The vikings defense being

567
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 2: blow average for a change last, year so it kind

568
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 2: of forced them out of their run heavy. Ways so you,

569
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 2: KNOW i think the defense will be a lot better this,

570
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: year so that that could hurt them a. Bit and

571
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 2: one of the things that the only CONCERN i have With,

572
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 2: jefferson it's not really his, fault but he And feelan

573
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: both posted a dud around twenty five percent of the.

574
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: Time that's they finish outside of the top, sixty and

575
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 2: that's more of a symptom of. This this offense has

576
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 2: a pretty low. Floor you, know if they get a big,

577
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: lead they're going to run the shit out of. It

578
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 2: it can hurt a guy Like. Jefferson so that's that's

579
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: one of my fear of taking him is he has

580
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: a little bit lower weekly floor than other guys in this.

581
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 2: Range BUT i consider him AND Aj brown to sort

582
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 2: of be the end of the wide receiver one like.

583
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 2: Locks So i'm fine scooping Either jefferson OR Aj brown here

584
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: before the position takes a decent drop off and then

585
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 2: it's you, know pretty much have eight to ten receivers

586
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 2: almost projected identically after. Them SO i do like scooping,

587
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 2: it OR i like having at least one receiver before

588
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 2: these two are off the.

589
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: Board, Yeah and that's the. Thing it's like we're nitpicking

590
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: between these. Guys BUT i think that the biggest takeaway,

591
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: is AND tj you kind of hit it at the,

592
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: top IS i think wide receiver going wide receiver heavy

593
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: early in the drafts is completely. Viable obviously you're not

594
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: like it kind of you, know you want to to

595
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: have running, backs but you have to go with the.

596
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 1: Value and SO i think waiting on quarterback comes back

597
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: into play again because it's like we owe everyone always

598
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 1: tries to get around it or you, know whatever. Not

599
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: but it's so important because if you if you have

600
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: a chance to take a tight, end you want to do.

601
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: That but like there's these wide receivers now are higher

602
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: floor than the running, backs just because the league has

603
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: turned into in the passing. League would you, Agree like

604
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 1: it used to be running backs for the higher floor picks.

605
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 1: Early NOW i think wide receivers, are, YEAH.

606
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 4: I MEAN i think outside of Maybe christian, McCaffrey like

607
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 4: there aren't any running backs even close to. Them people,

608
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 4: say you, know Say Kuon barkley's up there with, them

609
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 4: and like it's just it's. NOT i, mean teams are

610
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 4: throwing so, much and when you get these guys with

611
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 4: like these twenty seven percent target shared ten plus targets per,

612
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: game they are insanely. Consistent and that's that's why we're taking,

613
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: them why we're super comfortable taking them in first rounds

614
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 4: a lot, now a lot more than we did even

615
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 4: just five years.

616
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: Ago, yeah and just to like, underscore you, know like

617
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: when you when you look back at like the league,

618
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: averages you, know you go back to like twenty, ten

619
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: and we average pass attempts from twenty ten and before you,

620
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 1: know it was never. High it was like in the thirty,

621
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: threes thirty, two thirty, one but since it's been gradually,

622
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: climbing and you, know last year it was thirty five point,

623
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 1: two thirty four point nine in twenty, nineteen thirty four

624
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: point five in twenty, eighteen and thirty four point two

625
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: in twenty. Seventeen and the efficiency's been climbing, Too so you,

626
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: know this is something that's. Real it's that you, know

627
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: there's an extra pass attempt or two per, game you,

628
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: know and that's why the landscape has shifted so. Much

629
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 1: BUT i do want to talk about another guy that's

630
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: very you, Know, sean you mentioned Aj brown BECAUSE i

631
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: Think i'm Going jefferson ahead Of brown BECAUSE i look

632
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: at both of. Them both of them could be in you,

633
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: know somewhat low volume. OFFENSES i don't love That brown

634
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: is getting more competition in In, julio BUT i just

635
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: look at Like jefferson in year one compared To, brown

636
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: And brown had a great, year like one thousand and fifty,

637
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: yards eight, touchdowns But jefferson had fourteen hundred. Yards so

638
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: like it's kind of like, okay hazy year, Two i'm expecting.

639
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: It i'm expecting like there to be a jump Whereas,

640
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: brown you, know he there did a little more a

641
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 1: wider range of. OUTCOMES, Fj, like what do you think OF?

642
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 4: Aj, Yeah i'm kind of, struggling not even just in

643
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: this this, podcast but kind of all, summer well not all,

644
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: summer but since the, trade that The julio, trade if

645
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 4: he's in this tier or if he's where the tear drops

646
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 4: off because of the reasons you mentioned they. Were The

647
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 4: titans were thirtieth in neutral pass game right last, year

648
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: AND i know they have A north, coordinator but they promoted,

649
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 4: within which kind of suggests that things shouldn't change. MUCH i,

650
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 4: think as long As Derrick henry is, HEALTHY i don't

651
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 4: see this just Because julio is there turning into a

652
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 4: team that's throwing it forty times per game or something like.

653
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 4: That AND i Mean julio was, Healthy he's still a.

654
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 4: Baller he was on pace for ninety catches thirteen hundred

655
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 4: yards last. Year, MAN i, mean can he be on

656
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 4: the field for TEN i don't. Know but Unlike Justin,

657
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 4: jefferson who we saw last year trending towards that you,

658
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 4: know really high target share ED J brown is at

659
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 4: twenty five, percent but With julio.

660
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: THERE i don't know if it really has room to go.

661
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 4: UP i think it might stay the same and it

662
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 4: might be. Fine but, again he relied on touchdowns last.

663
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 4: Year he scored on ten percent of his targets last

664
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 4: year and was still barely a wide receiver. One can

665
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 4: he maintain? That that's almost. Impossible so if he, can't

666
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: he would need his target to go away. UP i

667
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 4: don't see that happening, Either SO i think he's like

668
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 4: on the fringe of even a wide receiver.

669
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: ONE i don't think he was gonna rake him, thirteenth.

670
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 4: BUT i think finishing outside of the top twelve is

671
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 4: really in his range of outcomes this.

672
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: Year, Yeah AND i hate to, say BECAUSE i ACTUALLY

673
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: i LOVE Aj brown as a. PLAYER i don't think

674
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 1: he's a guy that. Like, AGAIN i don't think we've

675
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 1: hit a wide receiver yet that, LIKE i would say

676
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: a fade at HIS. Adp but And i'll throw this

677
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: to both of, YOU, Tj i'll start with. You, like

678
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: out of the guys we've touched on so far in

679
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: the top, EIGHT i would SAY Aj brown is the

680
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: most likely to bus what would you, say.

681
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 3: Definitely most likely to?

682
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: Bust because of the kind of the things we, said

683
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 4: and the first player That i'm like really passing on

684
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 4: If i'm coming back in the second round and it's

685
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 4: between all of these receivers And kittle Or.

686
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 3: WALLER Aj brown is probably the only one ON pascon

687
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 3: for one of those.

688
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: Titles how about, You, John, yeah HIS adp seems about.

689
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 2: RIGHT i think it is closer to his, Ceiling so you,

690
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: KNOW i would agree. That you, know if you fade,

691
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: him you're probably not gonna lose your draft because of.

692
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 2: It BUT i love investing in wide receivers entering year

693
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 2: three at the age of twenty. Four you, know twenty

694
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 2: nineteen it Was Kenny gallady And Chris. GODWIN i just

695
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: had so many shares with that last year As Calm.

696
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 2: Ridley THAT'S Aj brown this. Year but you, know his

697
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: ADP's number, eight so there's only so much room to.

698
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: Grow so that's Why i'm looking, elsewhere like the wide

699
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 2: receiver two range for guys with like massive. Upside Whereas,

700
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: brown like you guys, said he does have a lower

701
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: floor just because he does rely on that efficiency and

702
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: we can't we can't really project him to maintain this

703
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 2: efficiency or the. Year so if he doesn'ted that volume

704
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: to kind of raise his. Floor but, Yeah i'm with you,

705
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: guys Like i'm okay passing him up. Here but, AGAIN

706
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: i think this is sort of the end of the

707
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: true wide receiver one tier for.

708
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: Me, Yeah and that's a good. Point LIKE i, think you,

709
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: know year, two year, three guys in their early, twenties

710
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 1: they're not usually gonna. Bust i'm just kind of relatively

711
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: to the rest of this, FIELD i think he has the.

712
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: HIGHEST i, mean every once in a while you do

713
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: get like A Juju, Smith schuster or somebody that you,

714
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: know starts off a little better then and then it

715
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: kind of goes down here a little bit due to

716
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: you know. Whatever there are some of those. FACTORS i

717
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: Think president WITH Aj But Michael thomas here's an interesting

718
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: one because, uh well was it this time last? YEAR i,

719
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: mean he is we're talking about him, potentially is you,

720
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: know do you take him over like the Zeeke Er

721
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: saquan or somebody like. That now he's a wide receiver

722
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: nine tj. Uh there is uncertainty In New. Orleans is

723
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: that enough to Drive Michael thomas down to the number

724
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: nine or is is that still too high or we're too.

725
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: Low like what are you thinking this?

726
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 4: IS i mean they're saying seven games right? Now is

727
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 4: that what came out last week that he might not

728
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 4: be back to week seven with his with his? Ankle, yeah,

729
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 4: SO i, MEAN I i JUST i don't even think

730
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 4: he can really be on my draft boards if HIS

731
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 4: adp stays, anywhere like in the top twenty. Four, LIKE

732
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 4: i JUST i don't know HOW i Draft Michael, thomas

733
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 4: not even know if The saints are really bad and

734
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 4: they're they're two and, six or they're gonna be Like

735
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 4: Rushian Michael thomas to come, back or if they're two

736
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 4: and two and, five are Then russian to come?

737
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: Back, YEAH i, mean it's it's tough, because like it's

738
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: funny because HIS adp really Hasn't and that's What i'm kind,

739
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: of you, know hinting. At it's, like this is the

740
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: guy who's he can he has that number one wide receiver,

741
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: upside but HIS adp really hasn't adjusted for the, news

742
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: which is interesting AND i think it, Will BUT i

743
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: personally Am i'm kind of on your. SIDE i don't

744
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: really like to take guys that are injured heading into the,

745
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 1: Year like there's a. Difference LIKE i and it sounds,

746
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: crazy But i'll take a guy Like Will fuller like

747
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: ahead of HIS adp more often THAN i take a

748
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: guy like you, Know Michael thomas Or Deebo. Samuel last,

749
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: YEAR i think it was you, know LIKE i JUST

750
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 1: i really think, that like you're putting yourself at a

751
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: at somewhat of a disadvantage just because. It, oh these

752
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 1: guys are going at a spot where it's like these

753
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 1: are valuable. Picks But, SEAN i know, You you're you

754
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 1: kind of like taking some risks with some of these. Guys.

755
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: Sometimes where are you On?

756
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 2: Thomas, yeah NORMALLY i do like to take like an

757
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 2: injured guy like. This USUALLY adp overreacts the other. Way

758
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: But i'm with you. Guys like if you look, at you,

759
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: know the the date filters FOR adp, SITES i saw,

760
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: it like For Best Ball, Tends he's still being drafted

761
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 2: in the eighteen and twenty one range after the news,

762
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 2: Broke So i'm, Out Like i'd rather have T higgins

763
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 2: Or Jamar, Chase like why? Not, so, uh you, know

764
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 2: he would have to, FALL i would, say like outside

765
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 2: of the top twenty five for me to even like

766
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 2: think about taking him because even when he, does there's

767
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 2: still question marks like who's going to even start at,

768
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 2: quarterback how that's going to work out for, him and

769
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: he might not even be one hundred percent at all this.

770
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 2: YEAR i don't like taking wide receivers specifically that are

771
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 2: dealing with a foot. Injury so there's just too many

772
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: question marks for just just give me T higgins Or

773
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: Jamar chase in that range, instead And i'm happy and

774
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: not to deal with the headache Of Michael. Thomas but,

775
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: yeah most a lot of the TIMES i do take

776
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: on this, risk but in this, Situation i'm fitting.

777
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 3: Completely where do you guys think IS adp will settle?

778
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 4: That over the last two days On, underdog it's wide receiver,

779
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 4: Nineteen but that still seems. CRAZY i have something THAT

780
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 4: i can half the season movies twenty.

781
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 2: Five i'm saying twenty. Five like you said, once there's

782
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 2: more clarity that LIKE i would, say if he's like

783
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 2: actually placed on the PEW p, LIST i think that

784
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: would trigger it to drop to twenty five and. Thirty

785
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 2: BUT i think people are just. Optimistic he's just going

786
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: to miss a couple of games right, Now so all

787
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: you need is one person in the draft to really like, him, Right, yeah,

788
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: yeah for. Sure, Yeah so that's WHY i think, EVENTUALLY

789
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: i think it'll settle them in twenty five thirty range.

790
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 1: Because he's on the pup list, now just not he's

791
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: on the training like the. Right, yeah SO i guess they.

792
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 2: Have a bye week, five so you, KNOW i could

793
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 2: see them just being safe put him on the pup

794
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 2: list and then he returns like week. SEVEN i think it.

795
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: Is so, yeah this IS i, mean to, me like

796
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 1: we talk about a guy, like this is a guy

797
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: THAT i, mean he should not be going like HIS

798
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: adp like should be dropping, precipitous. Precipitously but this is

799
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: a guy that could. Bust AND i think it was another,

800
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: one like much more so than even a guy LIKE

801
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: Aj brown who were just kind of nitpicking and talking

802
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 1: about him relating to like the other top eight Like

803
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: Michael thomas could bust even if he was completely. HEALTHY

804
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 1: i think just because of you know what we've kind

805
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 1: of you, Know Drew brees is a special kind of

806
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: quarterback that they had a certain kind of offense With

807
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: breeze where they had to kind of rely On thomas Because,

808
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: brees you, know couldn't get the balls far down the

809
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: field as he wanted. To, SO i mean there's a

810
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: lot of there's a lot of question marks With Michael,

811
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: thomas especially given given the, news but he he's on

812
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: the pup right now and not officially on the regular

813
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 1: season pup, yet but that's that is, expected SO i

814
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 1: WOULD i would take his ap.

815
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: With a grain of.

816
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: Salt let's move on to Uh Keenan. Allen WHO i,

817
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 1: Mean Keenan allen just one of the best route runners

818
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: in the, league UH. TJ i, mean he's got a

819
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 1: quarterback entering year, two he's got a you, Know Hunter

820
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 1: henry no longer, There Jared cook comes. In that's probably

821
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: a positive for For allen in terms of target. Share you.

822
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 1: Know any thoughts on On? Alan this is another GUY

823
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 1: i think has number one receiver. UPSIDE i mean he's

824
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: Been we've seen him do that for. Stretches what are

825
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: your thoughts On?

826
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 4: Keenan, Yeah alan's a weird one for me because to

827
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 4: to like stay up in this, tier he really needs.

828
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: A lot of red zone targets and he will get.

829
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 4: Those, so like his volume is gonna be kind of

830
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 4: similar to a lot of the guys we've already talked,

831
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 4: about but it's not the same type of.

832
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 3: Volume, uh he's a weird.

833
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 4: Player like a lot of players that gets this much,

834
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 4: work they'll you'll see their air yard share well.

835
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 3: Above their target.

836
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 4: Share so like At Calvin ridley last, year it was

837
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 4: crazy he had twenty five percent target share with like

838
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 4: a forty percent target. SHARE a lot of people you

839
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 4: see around like twenty three with thirty five percent target.

840
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 4: Share Keenan allen's one of the few guys that has

841
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 4: lower air yard share than he does target. Share so

842
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 4: it's just kind of a long way of saying, that

843
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 4: like he really needs touchdowns to compete with these, guys

844
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 4: and they need to be touchdowns.

845
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 3: Near the red, zone near the end.

846
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 4: Zone SO i, mean he just isn't going to boom

847
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 4: as much as these guys, are AND i think that

848
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: keeps his his weekly ceiling down a little bit and

849
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 4: his overall season ceiling down a little bit as.

850
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: Well are you, On Keenan.

851
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: Allen, yeah this is where wide receiver really opens. UP

852
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 2: i think you can make a case for like six

853
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,280
Speaker 2: to eight different wide receivers to be in this. Slot

854
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 2: So i'm not a fan of taking guys a top

855
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 2: of a. TIER i like taking guys at the bottom

856
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: of a, tier So i'm probably, Fading but at least

857
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 2: With Keenan, allen you know what you're gonna. GET i mean,

858
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 2: Right you're gonna get one hundred plus catches and seven eight.

859
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: Touchdowns just write it. In so he provides value that,

860
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: Way but at this point in the, DRAFT i do prefer.

861
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 2: Upside and one of the slight CONCERNS i have, is you,

862
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 2: know he's turning nine this year and his efficiency is

863
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: starting to. Drop you, know last year he had a

864
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,800
Speaker 2: one point eight two yards per route, run which is

865
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 2: as lowest since twenty. Fifteen but like you, mentioned he's

866
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 2: such an excellent route. Runner he's always. Open he's going

867
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: to get targets no matter What Hunter henry's. Gone you,

868
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: know the wide receiver three role is sort of wide,

869
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 2: open so he's he's going to get a massive target.

870
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: Share but give Me Mike williams way way later, run you,

871
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: know the wide receiver forty. RANGE i rather invest In

872
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 2: Mike williams in this.

873
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 4: Audie is it Actually Mike williams SEASON i keep seeing

874
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 4: it AND i. HAVEN'T i haven't been convinced.

875
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 2: Yet oh, YEAH i think, so definitely at HIS, adp

876
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 2: he's definitely definitely worth it HIS. Adp BUT i Think

877
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: Keenan allen will obviously outscore, him but it won't be

878
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: as much as a difference BETWEEN.

879
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 1: Adp, YEAH i mean you talk about yards per route.

880
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 1: Run even if you just look at yards per, catch you,

881
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: know a lot more basic of a. Stat but twenty

882
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: and seventeen thirteen point, seven twenty, eighteen twelve point, seven twenty,

883
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: nineteen eleven point, five twenty twenty nine point, Nine so

884
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,439
Speaker 1: you KNOW tj tier point those air yards they're going.

885
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 1: Down you, know he's not able to do as much per,

886
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 1: Catch and so another guy that he has, upside but

887
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: he has. DOWNSIDE i think HE'S i think it's fair

888
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: to kind of put him in the top ten in

889
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,400
Speaker 1: IN ppr because like he, said Like sean, said you,

890
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: know one hundred. Catches but LIKE i like a guy

891
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 1: Like terry, mclaarin who's another young guy that really probably hasn't,

892
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: scratched like hit his ceiling, yet but really impressive his

893
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 1: first couple of. Years what do you think About terry

894
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 1: mcwarran for twenty twenty ONE.

895
00:41:55,840 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 4: DJ i Love terry mclaarran as a, Player he's probably

896
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 4: one of the best all around YOUNG wde receivers in the.

897
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 4: League he has really shined In Matt harmon's reception, perception

898
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: which just shows how great a receiver he. IS i

899
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 4: think his role and this offense overall aren't as exciting

900
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 4: or maybe have more speed bumps than people might.

901
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 3: Realize Curtis hamil coming over. There curtis hamm was.

902
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 4: Another really good receiver that just really got misused for

903
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 4: some reason last. Year like we saw you just talked

904
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 4: about a dot like that's usually one of the stickiest

905
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 4: stats from year to, year and last Year curtis am

906
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 4: was off a. Cliff so he's going to give McLaurin

907
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 4: a lot of competition for those high volume deep.

908
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 3: Targets we know That Logan.

909
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 4: Thomas is still, there and then they got two running

910
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,479
Speaker 4: backs that catch the ball pretty. Good everybody is talking

911
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 4: about like, Listen i'm all about.

912
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 3: The Ryan fitzpatrick. Life fitzmagic. Life i'll buy him in best.

913
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 4: Ball but like a lot of people are talking like

914
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 4: he doesn't offer downside in an. Offense he offers a

915
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 4: lot of downside and Off if there's a reason he

916
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 4: hasn't had a a, starting continuous starting job for a long,

917
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 4: time because he'll mess up a lot and turn the

918
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 4: ball over and ruin the offense for, you like he'll,

919
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 4: boom but, man he could bust an offense, Too so

920
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 4: this offense has a whole has a lot more downside

921
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 4: THAN i think people are getting the credit for this.

922
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: YEAR i, MEAN i actually disagree on The samuel. Part

923
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: i'm actually. Worried And sean we've talked about it, too

924
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 1: So i'm curious to kind of hear you weigh. In

925
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: but LIKE, tj we've LIKE i Think samuel was misused

926
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: two years. AGO i think he was used exactly right last,

927
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 1: year maybe not for, fantasy like maybe we didn't want

928
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: to see his aid out go down for, Fantasy but

929
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: as far AS i can, tell he's just not good

930
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: down the. Field like so it's like in twenty nineteen he.

931
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: Was he had a high AID dot but he was very.

932
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: INEFFICIENT i think his catch rate was like around fifty

933
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 1: percent or something. Like and last year you.

934
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 3: Still also catch the bass From coyle, out.

935
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah which is. Fair but like last, year, yeah

936
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,399
Speaker 1: you saw the aid act go. Down BUT i think

937
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: he was he was more, consistent you, know he kind

938
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: of put up similar, numbers you, know it's just in

939
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,479
Speaker 1: a differ. Way And i'm actually worried that for him

940
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: specifically that they do try to use him the way

941
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: they did in twenty, nineteen because you, know there is

942
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: history and connections, there you, know From washington to That

943
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: carolina season in the coaching staff and. Whatnot but, uh

944
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 1: the fact that they Got Adam humphries kind of worries

945
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 1: me Because humphreys has to be your, slot which does

946
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: Put samuel on the. Outside but either, WAY i think

947
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: all of this this uncertainty to me is just great

948
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: for McLaren because it just it's just, like all, right

949
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: he's going to continue to be the target monster BECAUSE

950
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: i just don't Think samuel gets open downfield the way

951
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 1: he does. Underneath but But, SEAN i, mean where are

952
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 1: you in this? Situation?

953
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, again LIKE i Love terry. McLaurin i think is

954
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 2: a great, receiver but this is the range Where i'm

955
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 2: usually just waiting on. Guys that faults me IN adp

956
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 2: BECAUSE i think the next six stay guys are. Interchangeable you,

957
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 2: know mclaurin's been able to put up solid wide receiver

958
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 2: two numbers of Case king M Dwayne, haskins And Alex.

959
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: Smith So i'm excited to see what he does WITH.

960
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 2: Fits AND i did a little, dive you, know like

961
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: deep ball accuracy and like what he was what kind

962
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: of targets he was. Getting i'm out of sixty five

963
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 2: wide receivers saw ten plus targets of twenty eight yards

964
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: of more last. Year mccurran actually saw it like the

965
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 2: thirteenth highest rate in terms of catchable, balls but he

966
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,800
Speaker 2: was only able to haul, in you, know the thirty

967
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 2: one percent out of those thirty first catch rate out

968
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: of the sixty. Five so that's you could put that on.

969
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 2: Him so you, KNOW i Think fits will give him

970
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 2: more deep balls to catch that will kind of make

971
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 2: up if this inefficiency sort of. Continues but you, know

972
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: like like you guys are, mentioning there's there's only so

973
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: many targets to go. Around you Have Kurse samuel There

974
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: Adam humphries were talking about might be more of a

975
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 2: target hog than people are. Thinking Logan thomas still you

976
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 2: have great pass catching. Back So i'm just a bit

977
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: worried that mclorin's target share is going to take a

978
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 2: depth this. Year So i'm NOT i do have him

979
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 2: ranked tenth as, well you know AS. Adp But i'm

980
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: just not willing to buy there BECAUSE i really do

981
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: think that that's probably his.

982
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: Ceiling, YEAH i Think i'm willing to buy. IT i

983
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 1: mean more so just because of the like the. AGE

984
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: i think he's just a really safe, pick like AND

985
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 1: i THINK i don't think like what's going on around

986
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: him is going to affect them. MUCH i, mean you

987
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: Had Logan thomas have a career, year you HAD. Jd

988
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: McKissick have of a career. YEAR i mean there's guys

989
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 1: that could like lose target, share so LIKE i and you,

990
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 1: know If fitzpatrick's turning it over or doing like doing

991
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 1: making risky, THROWS i don't think it really. Affects It

992
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 1: actually is probably good for fantasy Because washington defense is

993
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: going to be. Good AND i think that more than

994
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 1: anything would be would give me pause about a guy

995
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 1: Like terry McLaurin is is that you, know the defense

996
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: is so good that they want they might not have

997
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: as well as many as them shootouts as a guy

998
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: Like Keenan, allen BECAUSE i don't think the target defense

999
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: will be very good this year or not as good

1000
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 1: as it's been in years, past another player kind of.

1001
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 1: Similar you, know the defense has been kind of trending

1002
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: down a little, bit but this guy has been getting

1003
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: the target, share and That's Alan. ROBINSON. Tj what are

1004
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: your thoughts on a rob and him in relation to

1005
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 1: guys Like keen And terry.

1006
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 4: Mcquarn, YEAH i think like in this, tier like the

1007
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 4: back half or the back third of the wide receiver,

1008
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 4: ones he's the one That i'm most likely to. Draft

1009
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 4: we've always talked about like If Alan robinson never had

1010
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 4: a good, quarterback then he would be the wide receiver

1011
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 4: one every.

1012
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 3: Year obviously that's like a little, hyperbolic but you know

1013
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 3: WHAT i.

1014
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 4: Mean, SO i, mean we don't know If Justin fields

1015
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 4: is going to start right, away but we do know

1016
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 4: That Al robinson is going to be the. One you,

1017
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 4: know they just got rid Of moody AND i don't

1018
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 4: think that was gonna affect the status. Much, No i'm,

1019
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 4: SORRY i don't think that's gonna affects the status. Much

1020
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 4: but he's going to be the number one there. Anyway

1021
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 4: he ten plus targets per. Game, GUY i think he's

1022
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 4: one of like five or six wide receivers with one

1023
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 4: hundred catches in his range of. Outcomes for, hims it's

1024
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 4: always how much can you get in the in. Zone

1025
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 4: so Obviously Andy dalton isn't gonna make the offense is.

1026
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 4: Good but if you, know if Not, Terry i'm. Sorry

1027
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 4: If Alan obvious can find the end zone seven or eight,

1028
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 4: times he's probably one of the same his picks in

1029
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 4: this range just because of that hundred catch.

1030
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: Upside, YEAH i, think you, Know i've been high on,

1031
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 1: him higher than most of these last couple of. YEARS i,

1032
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 1: love you, know age twenty, six age twenty, seven the

1033
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 1: last two years still age twenty, eight so still in his.

1034
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 1: PRIME i do worry a little bit, about you, know more,

1035
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: quarterbacks but like. It he's Had Mitch, trubisky he's had you,

1036
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 1: know he's had a kind of deal with with this

1037
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 1: like a sub standard quarterback, already and he's Had. Bortals

1038
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 1: he put up a big year with him as, well

1039
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: though also a bad. One but, YEAH i think he's

1040
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 1: one of the more kind of, unexciting unsexy. Picks, sean

1041
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 1: where are you on on a Rob? YEAH i feel the.

1042
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 2: Same you, know he he has a, safe safe target,

1043
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 2: share especially After Anthony miller was traded. Away you, know

1044
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 2: it's going to be a competition Between Daz news And

1045
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 2: Marquis goodwin Demere bird for the number three, roles so

1046
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 2: you know he's a safe bet for a bunch of.

1047
00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: Targets but again this, range you, Know i'm more willing

1048
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 2: to kind of fill my second running back slot with

1049
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 2: like A David Montgomery Chris carson this range and waiting

1050
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 2: to get like you, Know Ceedee, Lamb Robert, Woods Cooper

1051
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 2: cup a round or two later When James robinson And

1052
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,239
Speaker 2: Chase edmonds are being. TAKEN i think just there's such

1053
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 2: a big drop off at running back from, here you,

1054
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 2: know to the next couple of rounds that you can

1055
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 2: get a similar you, Know i'm Projecting Robert woods And

1056
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 2: Cooper cup just for like two to three points less

1057
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 2: than a Rob so that's WHY i love a Rob

1058
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 2: but Just i'm more, willing just based on my draft,

1059
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 2: strategy to punt at wide receiver in this range and

1060
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 2: just target a running. Back in most of my, Drafts

1061
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 2: i'm not punting.

1062
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: YET i Think i'm still taking guys like A rob

1063
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: like and that's the, Thing it's like we're kind of

1064
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 1: nitpigging between them but in, REALITY i do want as

1065
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: many of these guys AS i can. Get there's still

1066
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:47,879
Speaker 1: a lot of question marks in the running back. TIRE

1067
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 1: i do like some running backs kind of in that

1068
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 1: weight round zero running back here that THAT tj mentioned.

1069
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 1: Earlier but, yeah it's just there's not as much to

1070
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: say about a rob just because he is kind of

1071
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: locked into a target. Shain you do wonder about the,

1072
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:05,280
Speaker 1: quarterbacks but the bottom line is he's gonna he should

1073
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: get twenty five to thirty percent of those. Targets and

1074
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 1: if The bears defense kind of keeps trending, downward it's

1075
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 1: not gonna matter who the quarterback is because there's just

1076
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: gonna be there's gonna be more than enough volume up for.

1077
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:21,480
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1107
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 5: Nevata thanks for. Listening now back to the.

1108
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: Show we got a good amount of. TIMES i want

1109
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: to kind of dive into this one a little, bit

1110
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: which is And i'll start with YOU. Tj like of

1111
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: the guys we haven't mentioned, yet could be ANY, adp

1112
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 1: but you, KNOW i guess we'll start nearer to the

1113
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 1: top and that wide receiver two. Range who do you see?

1114
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 2: That?

1115
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:05,240
Speaker 1: Like not who's not in the top twelve AND adp

1116
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 1: right now that has that you, know top twelve, Upside

1117
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: let's start with this guys in the thirteen to twenty four,

1118
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 1: range like in that wide receiver two.

1119
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 4: Range, Yeah so the two guys that really stand to

1120
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 4: me stand out to here more towards the bottom of the.

1121
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 4: RANGE i, mean there's there's a couple couple receivers THAT

1122
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:22,959
Speaker 4: i Think sean last BUT i don't want to steal.

1123
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 4: Thunder but the two that really stand out to me

1124
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 4: Are Cooper cup And Tyler. Lockett Cooper cup is in

1125
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 4: a passing game with a super concentrated target share between

1126
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 4: him And Robert. Woods we Saw Robert woods finished as

1127
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 4: the wide receiver thirteen last year basically the same. Volume

1128
00:52:39,239 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 4: Wild cup was down with wide receiver twenty, FOUR i,

1129
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 4: think but that was really just came down. TOUCHDOWNS i

1130
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 4: Know Robert woods has a little bit rushing upside. There

1131
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,399
Speaker 4: that's not a count Fourth. Cup The cup only scored

1132
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 4: on two point four percent of his, targets and that

1133
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 4: came with a huge drop off in red. Zone he

1134
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 4: was tenth in red zone targets from twenty seventeen twenty.

1135
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 4: Nineteenth he was thirty seven in red zone targets last.

1136
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 4: Year SO i think we see that bounce back a

1137
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 4: little bit this year with more efficient offense With stafford,

1138
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 4: there AND i think that scoring normalizes a little. BIT

1139
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 4: i mean this, TEAM i don't know If, cup like

1140
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:10,919
Speaker 4: if he breaks the top, twelve it's probably like as

1141
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 4: the wide receiver, twelve BUT i think people are Taking

1142
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 4: woods with eight or nine wide receiver spots ahead of.

1143
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 4: Him really their seasons could look very, Similar like we

1144
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 4: could See stafford support to top twenty guys and career

1145
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 4: come down to a touchdown or, two which one ends

1146
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 4: up as the wide receiver, twelve which one's wide receiver eight.

1147
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: Team, YEAH i Think cooper. Cut it's Interesting Cooper. CUP i,

1148
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 1: MEAN i Think woods is getting a little flept, on

1149
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 1: THOUGH i would argue he has that same kind of

1150
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 1: upside With stafford. Up but it's funny Because, cup you,

1151
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: know he has a great, year but he kind of

1152
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 1: he finishes with, like you, know having not as many

1153
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 1: routes for. RUN i think it was the year before

1154
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,720
Speaker 1: and then last year kind of quiet compared to. Usual

1155
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 1: and if just all of a sudden people aren't talking about,

1156
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 1: him but you know they did upgrade at, quarterback they'll

1157
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 1: probably go pass heavier because of, it and then your offensive,

1158
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 1: Centerpiece Cam akers goes down for the. Year so like

1159
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 1: if rams could be this could be like the past

1160
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 1: Have Like sean McVay is not playing around here like

1161
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 1: he you, know he wants to. Win he's they've gotten really,

1162
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:14,799
Speaker 1: close and if he feels like you, Know Matthew stafford To,

1163
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:20,880
Speaker 1: Woods Cup Higbee DeShawn is better than handing off to

1164
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:24,439
Speaker 1: some combination Of Darryl henderson And Xavier jones twenty five

1165
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,680
Speaker 1: times a, game which it is this team could throw

1166
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 1: like six hundred and fifty, Times SO i would Say

1167
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 1: woods And cup are on that list for. Me But,

1168
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: sean who you got guys that that aren't going in

1169
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 1: top twelve right now that have that like legit wide

1170
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: receiver one upside or the most wide receiver one.

1171
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,040
Speaker 2: UPSIDE i, MEAN i feel like this one's too. Easy

1172
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 2: it's Ceedee lamb for. Me hered he flashed wide receiver

1173
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 2: one upside last year when he finished wide receiver twelve

1174
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 2: in weeks one through, five When dak was actually. Healthy he'

1175
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 2: shull only get better in ear two and he was

1176
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 2: ONLY i keep complaining about, this but he was only

1177
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 2: playing about seventy percent them snaps last, year so you

1178
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:04,879
Speaker 2: know they're moving around the. FORMATION i see him as

1179
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 2: he should be over ninety, percent but anything in the

1180
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 2: eighty to ninety percent, RANGE i think he, has you,

1181
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 2: know load a mid range wide receiver one upside And

1182
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 2: Mark keeper is dealing with this ankle. Injury who knows

1183
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 2: if he'll be one hundred percent to start. There SO

1184
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 2: i love Getting lamb right now at wide receiver.

1185
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 1: Fifteen, yeah if If lamb, doesn't if his routes, run

1186
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,280
Speaker 1: don't go up unless that called HIM Cd Cole hardman

1187
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 1: because because it's like brom like why why.

1188
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 4: No But sean, said like it's kind of, cheating but

1189
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 4: it's kind of not because there's like this weird thing

1190
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 4: when there are situations Like dallas where there's an exane

1191
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,439
Speaker 4: insane they get offense and then they have three wide

1192
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 4: receivers going relatively high, too going really, high and people

1193
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 4: want to avoid them because they're, like not all of

1194
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 4: them can ball, one maybe all of them can and.

1195
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 3: TWO i just want to be buying pieces of really good.

1196
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 4: Offenses if we're not, sure you want to bet hopefully

1197
00:55:57,960 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 4: that we get the one that breaks. Out If i'm,

1198
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 4: Wrong i'm, wrong but this offense is going to be,

1199
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 4: ridiculous AND i want as many pieces of it as.

1200
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,919
Speaker 4: Possible so the, idea like a lot of people people

1201
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 4: avoid it Because Ana maria are going so close to each.

1202
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 4: Other i'm encouraging it because if we knew who the

1203
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 4: wide receiver one was going to be and using ge

1204
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:17,919
Speaker 4: like a twenty five percent target, share LIKE i would

1205
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:19,840
Speaker 4: probably go in as like the wide receiver, seven, Right

1206
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 4: so in, theory you're kind of getting a discount when

1207
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 4: you do get them down.

1208
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 1: Here, YEAH i love it's it's kind of the same

1209
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 1: thing with the woods And cup scenario where it's like

1210
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 1: people don't want to touch, them AND i have another

1211
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 1: one and another guy that's going you know, again now

1212
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 1: we're just talking about guys that have top that top,

1213
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,320
Speaker 1: ten top twelve, upside you, know which everyone, does but

1214
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 1: guys THAT i think have the most and it's another

1215
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:46,879
Speaker 1: guy who is on a team where you have two

1216
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: guys and one is. Sexier But Tyler, lockett like every

1217
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:52,359
Speaker 1: year people forget about. Him he's going as the wide

1218
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 1: receiver twenty, one twenty, eighteen wide receiver, sixteen twenty, seventeen,

1219
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: nineteen wide receiver, thirteen last, year why receiver. Eight he's staying.

1220
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 1: Healthy he will have some some some, duds BUT i

1221
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 1: mean everyone outside of that top five six will and

1222
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 1: but but when he puts up, points he's putting up

1223
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 1: them up with bunches and like he legitimately could outscore

1224
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 1: you know all but like, five, six, seven eight wide

1225
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 1: receivers in the. League you, know this year even WITH

1226
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 1: Dk metcalf hitting HIS adp, value so because that's what

1227
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:28,040
Speaker 1: happened last, Year metcalf was, Six lockett was. Eight so

1228
00:57:28,360 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: he's another GUY i think people sweep on way too.

1229
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 1: Much he's ultra. Consistent maybe not as sexy anymore as

1230
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 1: he used to, Be but, Remember Russell wilson's throwing thirty

1231
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 1: plus touchdowns like every, year year, in year. Out that's

1232
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 1: what he. DOES i believe it's five of the past six,

1233
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 1: years And metcalf and lock It are are pretty locked

1234
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 1: in to that target. Share SO i Love lockett at

1235
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 1: number twenty.

1236
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 4: One, yeah you just said something right at the end

1237
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 4: THAT i was GONNA i think some people either didn't

1238
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 4: hear at all or like gonna be, like what are

1239
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:55,720
Speaker 4: you talking?

1240
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 3: About you said he's super.

1241
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 4: Consistent he all of a sudden got this crazy boomer

1242
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 4: bus label because his points came in these huge games last,

1243
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 4: year AND i think people think that's the, norm but it's.

1244
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 4: Not he's used in intermediate else he's using deeper Ups

1245
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 4: Russell wilson is one of the most efficient passers in.

1246
00:58:10,240 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 4: History it's a super concert traded target, share like his

1247
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 4: season was an, outlier but he's not a boom or bust.

1248
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 3: Guy he's the guy that could get you really steady

1249
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 3: points with a lot of.

1250
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 1: Upside, Yeah and it's it's funny BECAUSE i, think you,

1251
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 1: know a lot of times we get caught up in

1252
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: The metcalf discussion about will well if they finally unreached

1253
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 1: unleashed rough or. Whatnot BUT i Think metcalf probably is

1254
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 1: like a you, know in that six to ten range either,

1255
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,800
Speaker 1: way five to, ten, like no matter what, happens he

1256
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 1: was there last. Year but if the If seattle does

1257
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: kind of open up the, OFFENSE i think It's lockett

1258
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:44,480
Speaker 1: who really benefits because you, know as you, mentioned he's

1259
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 1: the guy that you, know if you're Doubling metcalf over the,

1260
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 1: Top locket's the guy is gonna go. Underneath he's gonna

1261
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 1: come out of the. Slot he's gonna get that like

1262
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 1: five yard out for the first down on, third, now you,

1263
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 1: know like that's that's what Tyre walker can. Do SO

1264
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 1: i really think twenty one is too low for. Him

1265
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 1: AND I i think that's a great POINT tj about

1266
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 1: just the pairings in general are are kind of they

1267
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 1: scare people. Away SO i do want to get your

1268
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 1: both of you guys's thoughts on another, pairing and we've

1269
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: Seen Mike evans do this in the. Past last, year

1270
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: is the wide receiver eleven on only one hundred nine,

1271
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: targets he had thirteen. Touchdowns any thoughts Tj On evans

1272
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 1: And godwin and just you know This tampa receiving, Situation,

1273
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: like are any of those any of those guys have

1274
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 1: a wide receiver one upside uh this? Year or is

1275
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 1: there are just too many guys there for that to

1276
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 1: be the.

1277
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:38,280
Speaker 4: Case, Yeah i'm kind of leaning towards there's too many guys.

1278
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 4: THERE i, MEAN i don't know if we can we

1279
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 4: keep saying, that Like brady has to fall off at some.

1280
00:59:44,160 --> 00:59:44,840
Speaker 3: POINT i, MEAN i.

1281
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 4: Don't know how we can just like keep projecting them

1282
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 4: to be as good as they, were and he keeps doing.

1283
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 3: It but there are a lot a lot of mouse

1284
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 3: to feed.

1285
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 4: There, Godlin Mike, LEVINS i, Know gronk is the gronk

1286
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 4: he used to, be but they've got some past fist

1287
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 4: running backs as. Well AND i, mean don't For Antonio,

1288
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,000
Speaker 4: brown don't forget the fact that Like, Oja howard was

1289
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 4: seeing a decent amount of targets like before he got,

1290
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:07,919
Speaker 4: hurt so he could throw like even if he takes

1291
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:11,160
Speaker 4: away one or two targets from these, guys but it's

1292
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 4: it's already deluded targets, like that's. Significant so If brady

1293
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 4: spread the ball, around you, know relatively, evenly and they

1294
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 4: all kind of cannibalize each. Other SO i Mean evan's

1295
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 4: target not target, share touchdown share was just another. Guy

1296
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 4: like we talked about WITH Aj brown that it was

1297
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 4: just through the, roof and that's obviously not. Sustainable the

1298
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 4: way to make that up is with. Volume and he's

1299
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 4: just not somebody, that's you, know gonna catch eighty five.

1300
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 1: Balls, Yeah, john where are you on The Tampa bay

1301
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: guys in terms of like the we'll talk about it more,

1302
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 1: obviously but just like on their wide receiver one, Upside,

1303
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 1: like what do you think their?

1304
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 2: EYES i don't think you go. Wrong it kind of

1305
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 2: brings me back to WHAT tj was saying about The cowboys.

1306
01:00:48,600 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 2: RECEIVERS i think about it, similarly like we can pick,

1307
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 2: him but just give me one of. THEM i just

1308
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:57,480
Speaker 2: like investing in pieces of the. OFFENSE i keep bringing, Up,

1309
01:00:57,720 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 2: well first of, All i'm not betting on any kind

1310
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 2: of rest With Tom. Brady if, ANYTHING i keep, SAYING

1311
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 2: i keep getting flashbacks of That Peyton manning first year

1312
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 2: where he had almost similar. Stats in the next year

1313
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 2: he broke records like the fact That brady did that

1314
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 2: with barely any offseason scares. Me, so, LIKE i want

1315
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 2: to invest in These buccaneers pass, catchers even a guy

1316
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 2: Like Mike. Evans yes he's touchdown, dependent but he scores,

1317
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 2: touchdowns So i'm willing to overlook. THAT i Mean week

1318
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 2: three last year was the Most Mike evans line. Ever

1319
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 2: two catches for two yards and two. Touchdowns, like give

1320
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 2: me that any day of the, week, Right So i'm

1321
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: not gonna pick these. GUYS i think there's you, know

1322
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 2: there's a lot of guys in that. RANGE i prefer over,

1323
01:01:39,240 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 2: Them but, like investing in any bit of This buccaneers

1324
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 2: passing GAME i think is worth it this.

1325
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 1: Year and another guy who finished top ten and was

1326
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: very reliant on, touchdowns but obviously it's not going in

1327
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 1: as a wide receiver one this year Is adam Beewen.

1328
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 1: Man AND i know we're all pretty high On jefferson

1329
01:01:57,520 --> 01:01:59,919
Speaker 1: and his sky's the limit in terms of THE ceo

1330
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 1: and BUT, tj where are you on the wind in

1331
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 1: terms of get his like wide receiver, One like the

1332
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: odd of him repeating is wide receiver. One BECAUSE i

1333
01:02:07,760 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 1: know you're big on the touchdown regression in thirteen touchdowns

1334
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 1: nineteen red don targets ten at thirteen inside the. TEN i,

1335
01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:17,160
Speaker 1: mean what do you think about the potential regression coming From.

1336
01:02:17,440 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 4: YEAH i, mean just just to kind of drive that point,

1337
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 4: home you said that most of his stuff just came

1338
01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 4: from from the red. Zone but if we look at

1339
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 4: his overall touchdown, expectations he should have only scored about eight.

1340
01:02:28,080 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 4: TOUCHDOWNS i do a study every year that looks at

1341
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:33,760
Speaker 4: touchdown rates from basically every yard line on the, field

1342
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 4: so we don't just get like a.

1343
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 3: Rate that is off because of like those high red zone.

1344
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 4: Numbers so even if we look at his overall, number

1345
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:44,919
Speaker 4: he scored six touchdowns over, expectation that was the second

1346
01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 4: highest in the. League and that, study those numbers almost always.

1347
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 4: Regrets to, me it's been one of the most predictive

1348
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 4: Studies i've then from year to. Year so his numbers

1349
01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:55,040
Speaker 4: are going to fall way. Off so, YEAH i, MEAN

1350
01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:57,400
Speaker 4: i JUST i haven't even really BEEN i don't THINK

1351
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 4: i have maybe one share of feeling on this, year

1352
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 4: and that's over the one hundred.

1353
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 1: Drafts, yeah and he's he's going as the wide receiver nineteen,

1354
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 1: Sean he's he is turning thirty one. Too is that a,

1355
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 1: guy BECAUSE i know you like investing in guys kind

1356
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 1: of on the front side of their careers and when

1357
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 1: they're still room to. Grow stephen, ALSO i got you've

1358
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,959
Speaker 1: been fading seeking said he's about to turn thirty.

1359
01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 2: One, Yeah i'm probably fading him not so much because

1360
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:26,520
Speaker 2: of his, age but you know that we already, mentioned

1361
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:29,000
Speaker 2: like the touchdown regression is. Coming i'm projecting him for

1362
01:03:29,040 --> 01:03:32,920
Speaker 2: eight point seven. Touchdowns but, also you, know this, offense

1363
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 2: LIKE i, said you, know it'll probably become a little

1364
01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:39,360
Speaker 2: bit more run heavy this year with the defense likely

1365
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 2: improving off of last. Year you, know we Know Mike

1366
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 2: zimmer likes to you, know have a great defense and

1367
01:03:44,080 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 2: run the. Ball SO i just think that a little

1368
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:47,960
Speaker 2: bit worried about the. Volume but either, WAY i think

1369
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 2: when it comes to these top Two vikings, receivers they

1370
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 2: at least have you, know a locked in target. Share

1371
01:03:52,800 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 2: we already. Mentioned you, know they only have like those

1372
01:03:54,880 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 2: two receivers IN Irv smith and that's pretty much. It

1373
01:03:57,320 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 2: SO i think you can't really go wrong with, feeling

1374
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: but you really do need that touchdown stickiness to. Stay

1375
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:05,720
Speaker 2: but you, Know i'm projected for eight point, Seven so

1376
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 2: he's my wide receiver twenty. One i'm probably fading him AT.

1377
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 2: Adp all, right let's finish up with a couple of.

1378
01:04:13,400 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 1: Questions i'll start With we'll start with our top, five

1379
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 1: our personal top five wide receiver rankings for twenty twenty.

1380
01:04:20,640 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 1: ONE tj start with.

1381
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 3: You, YEAH i think we kind of touched on it.

1382
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:29,440
Speaker 4: Earlier i'm gonna Give adams the slight edge Over tyreek

1383
01:04:29,560 --> 01:04:31,760
Speaker 4: as my receiver one because we did get news when

1384
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 4: we recorded this today that it looks Like Aaron rodgers

1385
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:37,080
Speaker 4: is expected to. Play so after the top, TWO i

1386
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 4: was really tempted to Put ridley as my, three BUT

1387
01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:45,520
Speaker 4: i kept digs, there, like we can't ding digs against

1388
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 4: really Like ridley's in an improved situation where he's going

1389
01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 4: to be the target, hog but we. Can't we can't

1390
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 4: ding digs when he's already in that. Situation So digs,

1391
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,880
Speaker 4: Three ridley, four and Then hopkins running out the top

1392
01:04:57,920 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 4: five for?

1393
01:04:58,320 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 1: Me what about, You?

1394
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 2: John my top wide receivers Are Tyreek, Hill DeVante, Adams Stefon,

1395
01:05:04,440 --> 01:05:06,400
Speaker 2: diggs Calv, ridley And DeAndre.

1396
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 1: Hopkins, yeah And i'm going for my top five wide

1397
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: out With Davante adams number, One Tyreek hill number, Two

1398
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:17,200
Speaker 1: stefon dig number, Three DeAndre hopkins number, four and Then

1399
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 1: Calvin ridley round out the top. Five pj Our last,

1400
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 1: question most overrated wide out in the top. TWELVE i

1401
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:27,880
Speaker 1: know we touched on in, earlier but who you got for.

1402
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:32,840
Speaker 4: Most overrated most Overrated fantasy wide? Out not overrated room?

1403
01:05:32,920 --> 01:05:36,439
Speaker 4: Whiteout in the top ten for me is Aj. Brown

1404
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:39,160
Speaker 4: he had a ten over ten percent touchdown rate last,

1405
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 4: year scored six touchdowns over. Expectation only other receiver in

1406
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 4: the top twenty four with fewer targets Than Adam. Thalen

1407
01:05:48,080 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 4: i've barely finished as the wide receiver one with six

1408
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:54,200
Speaker 4: touchdowns over expectation AS i, mentioned and With julio, THERE

1409
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 4: i don't think there's a lot of target volume to

1410
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 4: go up FOR Aj?

1411
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 1: Brown what about?

1412
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 2: You? SO i don't want to say they're, overrated because

1413
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,800
Speaker 2: let me be, clear these are two very talented wide.

1414
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 2: RECEIVERS i would love having them on my, team But

1415
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 2: Keenan allen And tara mccorn they just don't fit in

1416
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 2: my draft. Plan you, KNOW i think they sit a

1417
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 2: top a massive wide, receiver one wide receiver two Tier

1418
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:18,600
Speaker 2: we can get another wide, receiver you, know and a

1419
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,919
Speaker 2: round or two, Later SO i typically target a second

1420
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 2: running back around, them Like Dave montgomery Or Chris, carson

1421
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 2: and then around or two later guys that you were gushing,

1422
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 2: Over Robert woods Or Cooper. Cup SO i just think

1423
01:06:31,240 --> 01:06:34,680
Speaker 2: that my draft, PLAN i typically fade these, guys not

1424
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 2: BECAUSE i don't think they're good wide, receivers they just

1425
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 2: don't fit in my draft.

1426
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:42,120
Speaker 1: Plan, YEAH i think if we're talking about guys who

1427
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:44,560
Speaker 1: are most likely to bust in those top two, tiers

1428
01:06:44,640 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 1: it's probably Aj. Brown But i'm gonna say most overrated

1429
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:51,880
Speaker 1: on the overall top twelve Is Keenan, allen just because you,

1430
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 1: know the yards per catch has been going, down the

1431
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:59,200
Speaker 1: age is, increasing and we just don't know anymore if

1432
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: he can really still kind of give you that those

1433
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:04,920
Speaker 1: ceiling performances even on high, volume and we started to

1434
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 1: seem struggle with injuries last, year and THEN i shouldn't

1435
01:07:08,040 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 1: even mention them because it's kind cheating because his ADPs

1436
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:12,640
Speaker 1: will probably be a bunch of spots flower by the

1437
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 1: time you guys actually hear. This But Michael thomas should

1438
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:18,320
Speaker 1: be nowhere in the top twelve much as the top twenty.

1439
01:07:18,320 --> 01:07:21,640
Speaker 1: Four so those are my two guys for Most, OVERRATED.

1440
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 1: TJ i really want to thank you for doing. This

1441
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 1: it's good to be back on the pod pottering with.

1442
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:30,760
Speaker 1: You tell everybody what's you're up to over at four

1443
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 1: for four and where they can find.

1444
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:36,200
Speaker 4: You, yeah easy to Find twitter is at Teacher. Hernandez

1445
01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:39,400
Speaker 4: all of my work is at four. Four we're right

1446
01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 4: around the corner FROM dfs, season so we had a

1447
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:45,520
Speaker 4: lot OF dfs stuff From norris obviously been talking redraft

1448
01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:46,920
Speaker 4: here And i've been talking Best ball.

1449
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:50,160
Speaker 3: Offseason But august, First i'm turning THAT dfs switch. On

1450
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 3: we have a ton of great.

1451
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 4: Preseason content coming on, up a ton of great studies

1452
01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 4: updating some great studies that the Great Chris raybund did

1453
01:07:57,640 --> 01:08:00,240
Speaker 4: back in the, Day so those will be updated on

1454
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:03,120
Speaker 4: for four and and then just to cut a ton

1455
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:05,320
Speaker 4: of draft AND dfs.

1456
01:08:05,400 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 3: Contents i'll check it all out over.

1457
01:08:06,640 --> 01:08:09,760
Speaker 1: There yes there always love it for for one of

1458
01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 1: the best, sites and be sure to check T j out.

1459
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:16,759
Speaker 1: There you can Find sean On twitter at The Underscore Odds.

1460
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 1: Maker you can find me At Chris. Raybond be sure

1461
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 1: to check out Our fantasy draft kit at actionnetwork dot

1462
01:08:23,400 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 1: com and download The Action network app to track all your,

1463
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 1: bats all your. Futures uh and see what we're betting

1464
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:33,320
Speaker 1: on as. Well that is going to do it for

1465
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 1: our wide receiver one. Pod we'll Have Matt harmon on

1466
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 1: for wide receiver, too so be on the lookout for

1467
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 1: that early next. Week let get this money