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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris holding forth in Raleigh, North Carolina with her
Speaker 3: economic policy proposals today, and as we've told you, she's
Speaker 3: painting out of three buckets, largely housing assistance. We're going
Speaker 3: to be talking about expanding tax credits and some other
Speaker 3: issues that we may not have heard about so far yet.
Speaker 3: But controlling prices, which has been a big theme of
Speaker 3: the week, will be a big part of this, with
Speaker 3: a proposal to create a federal ban on price gouging.
Speaker 3: That's two forty five technically Eastern time, if all things
Speaker 3: start on time, and we're going to talk in a
Speaker 3: moment with Gene Spurling about what to expect as we
Speaker 3: set the baseline with my colleague Eric Wasson, and one
Speaker 3: of the most important pieces of journalism that you can
Speaker 3: read today must Win Michigan's angst over inflation in EVS
Speaker 3: shapes the twenty twenty four race. Great on the ground
Speaker 3: reporting by way of Tony M's Restaurant and Lansing. Eric,
Speaker 3: It's great to have you. Thank you for joining us
Speaker 3: as always here on Bloomberg. There's a particular line that
Speaker 3: jumps off the page in your piece today, as we
Speaker 3: consider these candidates going out of their way to try
Speaker 3: to pitch economic policy proposals, you write, neither Trump nor
Speaker 3: Harris have offered many specifics on their plans to cut
Speaker 3: the high costs, which have this woman you interviewed here
Speaker 3: at the restaurant contemplating layoffs. This is the week where
Speaker 3: the campaigns fill in the blanks. What are people in
Speaker 3: Michigan looking to hear?
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I was jove reh Michigan for a week.
Speaker 5: I was very impressed by how sphiscated voters are, especially
Speaker 5: about the auto industry out there. There's a real wively
Speaker 5: debate among the popular of the wisdom of pushing electric vehicles,
Speaker 5: of you know, sort of having pollution laws that would
Speaker 5: basically push the car companies into making more of them,
Speaker 5: of incentivizing them. You know, a lot of auto workers
Speaker 5: are afraid that there's fewer parts that I mean, fewer
Speaker 5: jobs and this is risky for GM, which was in
Speaker 5: bankruptcy a decade and a half ago. So that was
Speaker 5: very interesting. You know, this restaurant that I went and
Speaker 5: talked to, they're big supporters of the union. The union
Speaker 5: pickets out front whenever there's a strike. But she might
Speaker 5: vote for Trump because times are better, prices were lower.
Speaker 4: She got twenty five employees, and with the cost of.
Speaker 5: Food and new minimum wage law in Michigan going into effects,
Speaker 5: she might have to lay some of them off. And
Speaker 5: we heard that through I heard that throughout the state.
Speaker 5: And Democrats are really you know, they're not playing defense.
Speaker 5: They're not talking about bidnomics. In the fact, they're saying,
Speaker 5: we hear some concrete proposals to move forward. And that's
Speaker 5: what voters are saying. They want to hear. They don't
Speaker 5: want to hear a personality campaign. They're sick of the
Speaker 5: mud slinging. But they're very worried about prices. And what
Speaker 5: we heard from the Republicans is more energy production, you know,
Speaker 5: go back really pushing fossil fuel vehicles and what Motown
Speaker 5: is famous for producing as far as motors, and like
Speaker 5: Slotkin on down saying we have an industrial policy. The
Speaker 5: evs are the way of the future. They'll either be
Speaker 5: built in China or built here. And as far as costs,
Speaker 5: we can address housing, we can address prescription drugs, which
Speaker 5: has already started to tackle.
Speaker 4: We can address student loans.
Speaker 5: While acknowledging, you know, I think the lower ballot candies
Speaker 5: acknowledge that maybe price gouging legislation won't be a pure
Speaker 5: all And certainly I think voters are going to disappointed
Speaker 5: that we may slow inflation, but we're not going to
Speaker 5: go back to twenty nineteen prices. That's just not really
Speaker 5: how the economy works. So I thought it was very interesting.
Speaker 5: I think, you know, these are swing districts a swing state.
Speaker 5: You know, the eighth and seventh district in Michigan could
Speaker 5: flip the house. That's where Dan Kildy is retiring and
Speaker 5: Slotkin's moving trying to move on to the Senate, and
Speaker 5: these these voters are really on the fence.
Speaker 3: Well, it's real life stuff here. You talk about Tony
Speaker 3: M's restaurant. They had to actually cut their hours, Eric
Speaker 3: because GM got rid of the third shift. This is
Speaker 3: the stuff that we don't always talk about in Washington.
Speaker 3: And to that end, Alyssa Slotkin. You mentioned the congresswoman
Speaker 3: here a moment ago with a quote in your story.
Speaker 3: If I hear one more Washington based, Harvard educated person
Speaker 3: tell me no, it's really better and the economy is
Speaker 3: actually very good, I'm gonna have to maybe depart that meeting.
Speaker 3: How does Kamala Harris get to that today?
Speaker 4: You know, I think that she's doing.
Speaker 5: I think what Slacka would want her to do and
Speaker 5: probably asked her to do when they met in Detroit
Speaker 5: earlier this month, is to talk about concrete policy proposals.
Speaker 5: You know, I don't know if Slakin's going to endorse everything.
Speaker 5: She's probably running a little bit to the right of Harris,
Speaker 5: as she must. But you know, they want to see
Speaker 5: meaty proposals, and that's what voters want to see.
Speaker 4: And I saw very few.
Speaker 5: You know, I saw some retirees who already owned their
Speaker 5: house that the economy was doing well. But young people, millennials,
Speaker 5: jen z all very angsty about starting a family. When
Speaker 5: can they ever afford a house? When can they save up?
Speaker 5: And as Luckin said, there's no point going and trying
Speaker 5: to sell people that hey, I thinks are actually good
Speaker 5: because these stats they they are people know their pocketbook.
Speaker 3: Eric, thank you so much. Great to see you in
Speaker 3: great reporting. Find that piece on the terminal and online.
Speaker 3: Eric Wasason Bloomberg, congressional reporter getting into the field. This
Speaker 3: is on the ground reporting, and it's something that Gene
Speaker 3: Sperling knows a lot about because now he's back on
Speaker 3: the trail from the White House joining the Harris campaign
Speaker 3: as senior economic advisor. The last time we spoke, he
Speaker 3: was an economic advisor to President Biden, and he joins
Speaker 3: us in a new capacity today. Gene, it's great to
Speaker 3: have you back on Bloomberg with the speech less than
Speaker 3: two hours away from Kamala Harris. What should her message?
Speaker 3: What will her message be to the people eating at
Speaker 3: Tony M's restaurant in Lansing, Michigan, who are bemoaning the
Speaker 3: fact that GM got rid of a third shift. How
Speaker 3: does she win their trust to handle the economy over
Speaker 3: Donald Trump?
Speaker 6: Well, what they're going to hear from a vice president.
Speaker 6: Here is.
Speaker 7: A presidential candidate who is focused like a laser on
Speaker 7: taking on powerful interests to lower costs that are affecting
Speaker 7: them right now and doing so in her first one
Speaker 7: hundred days. So she's going to be laying out a
Speaker 7: plan that first of all, is going to make clear
Speaker 7: that we're going to have the first federal law ever
Speaker 7: that allows banning price gouging by grocery chains, by the
Speaker 7: meat industry.
Speaker 6: That because I think that.
Speaker 7: A lot of average people are thinking, you know, agree
Speaker 7: with her that they saw a lot of big companies,
Speaker 7: grocery companies, food companies keep their profit margins high as
Speaker 7: opposed to passing on savings at a time when people
Speaker 7: still think rightly so that food prices are still high,
Speaker 7: even with food inflation coming down, they still look at
Speaker 7: where things were three years ago and they feel like
Speaker 7: it's too high, and they want to make sure that
Speaker 7: the person in the White House is doing everything they
Speaker 7: can to hold big corporation's feet to the fire. Understanding
Speaker 7: prices go up and down, people use market power, but
Speaker 7: not allowing bad behavior that keeps prices high. And I
Speaker 7: will say that its Attorney General of California, Kamala Harris,
Speaker 7: was very effective in taking on big oil, big pharma,
Speaker 7: the big banks, on housing where they acted in an
Speaker 7: improper or legal way to keep prices high.
Speaker 6: Secondly, and I think this goes.
Speaker 7: To what was just being reported, she is going to
Speaker 7: have the most significant plan to end the shortage of
Speaker 7: affordable housing that we've seen from any candidate. Number one,
Speaker 7: she is going to ex span the efforts to increase
Speaker 7: the supply of affordable housing, both rental and those first
Speaker 7: starter homes. She's going to do the first ever tax
Speaker 7: cut for industry if they build affordable starter homes and
Speaker 7: if they sell them to first time home buyers. She's
Speaker 7: going to have a challenge fund that's going to require
Speaker 7: state local governments to do innovative things to increase supply. Secondly,
Speaker 7: she's going to crack down on the price fixing that
Speaker 7: we are seeing through algorithmic use of algorithms that are
Speaker 7: illegally increasing prices of renters, and going to stop the
Speaker 7: hoarding of single family homes by Big Wall Street private
Speaker 7: equity firms and instead give incentives to sell those to
Speaker 7: individual families and to get those back in the community.
Speaker 7: And third, which I think is really important, is why
Speaker 7: are those people that were being talked to worried about
Speaker 7: owning a home. Most of them are working hard, getting
Speaker 7: a paycheck and then paying a rent. They're paying a
Speaker 7: rent that is often as high as a mortgage payment.
Speaker 7: Why are they paying a landlord instead of building wealth
Speaker 7: because they can't put together a down payment. She's going
Speaker 7: to say, if you have paid your rent on time
Speaker 7: for two years, people will be eligible for a twenty
Speaker 7: five thousand dollars down payment assistance. This shows what kind
Speaker 7: of a candidate she is. She's not just for helping
Speaker 7: me get by, which is important.
Speaker 3: Okay, Gene, I was kind of hoping to have a
Speaker 3: conversation with you today. Okay, Well, okay, so God that
Speaker 3: we just went through the whole thing here. I was
Speaker 3: kind of hoping to have a little back and forth, Gene.
Speaker 3: To what extent is Kamala Harris going to have to
Speaker 3: draw a distinction between her approach and Joe Biden's or
Speaker 3: is there none?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 7: I think she's She is building on a lot of things,
Speaker 7: but I think housing is an area where you see
Speaker 7: her going broader. She is doing more on the supply side.
Speaker 7: This is a brand new tax cut that not only
Speaker 7: encourages building affordable rentals, but building starter homes that's never
Speaker 7: happened for that is an expansion the down payment assistance,
Speaker 7: which was ten thousand dollars under Biden. She's going to
Speaker 7: twenty five thousand dollars. You know, we know what the
Speaker 7: cost of a house is. That is going to open
Speaker 7: the door to home ownership to millions more people.
Speaker 6: So those are ways she's expanding.
Speaker 7: She's also proposing something in the child tax credit that
Speaker 7: is new, which she's saying that in the first year
Speaker 7: of life, let's give families actually six thousand dollars. So
Speaker 7: many people don't have paid leave, and yet they have
Speaker 7: to deal with the price of diapers, car seats, you know,
Speaker 7: all of the things that make the first year of
Speaker 7: life more expensive. So she's helping families deal with costs
Speaker 7: in these areas. These are expansions that she's doing. And
Speaker 7: I'll be honest, she is announcing more things that go
Speaker 7: after price gouging and price fixing among corporate landlords and
Speaker 7: in the food area than President Biden has. He's taken steps,
Speaker 7: but I think you see that she is not really
Speaker 7: swerving away, but she is putting her own stamp, and
Speaker 7: often it means going further and a little tougher, particularly
Speaker 7: on issues that affect the price. The prices that you
Speaker 7: just heard in the previous segment are really up front
Speaker 7: of mine for so many working families who are still
Speaker 7: feeling a squeeze, even with low unemployment, even with record
Speaker 7: job creation.
Speaker 3: We saw the University of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Speaker 3: Index today gene up for the first time in five months,
Speaker 3: and noteworthy, as we saw from the report, the rise
Speaker 3: and sentiment partially driven by Joe Biden's decision to drop
Speaker 3: out of the race. Is there an inherent optimism by
Speaker 3: changing the top of the ticket that Kamala Harris brings
Speaker 3: into this speech today.
Speaker 6: I don't think there's any question that.
Speaker 7: As much as President Biden and Vice President Harris have
Speaker 7: an extraordinary record of accomplishment, particularly legislative accomplishment, nobody doubts
Speaker 7: that about the Infrastructure Bill, the American Rescue Plan, the
Speaker 7: Chips Bill.
Speaker 6: I mean, you can see with your own eyes.
Speaker 7: She has created a new energy, the excitement with her
Speaker 7: and with Tim Waltz. You can feel it everywhere.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 7: You know, that's it's hard for me to put that
Speaker 7: in economic words, but I think you know, going to
Speaker 7: what you were saying earlier, what you are hearing from
Speaker 7: her right now is going after the prices that affect families.
Speaker 7: She's going to also talk later about the things we
Speaker 7: could do legislatively in a Harris Waltz administration. I mean,
Speaker 7: childcare costs are one of the main taxes on people
Speaker 7: going to work, you know, helping people with family caregiving.
Speaker 6: You know, these are things that are more legislative.
Speaker 7: But right now, what she's doing is going right at
Speaker 7: like a laser beam at.
Speaker 6: What is really probably people now. And I will tell you.
Speaker 7: That, I would say food prices and the price A
Speaker 7: lot of them know they're still working, a lot of
Speaker 7: them know they're now getting a raised, but they don't
Speaker 7: want to give back some of that raise for higher
Speaker 7: meat prices that might be due not to supply chain shortages,
Speaker 7: but to companies trying.
Speaker 6: To jack up their profit margins.
Speaker 7: We just saw a study based on Census data earlier
Speaker 7: in the year that suggested profit margins in many of
Speaker 7: the grocery retail was at the highest in twenty years.
Speaker 7: I think people want to see a president who's focused
Speaker 7: on that, focused on rent and also focused on lowering
Speaker 7: prescription drugs.
Speaker 6: And one of the.
Speaker 7: Things she called for is saying that thirty five dollars
Speaker 7: an insulin, that two thousand dollars out of pocket limit.
Speaker 7: That shouldn't just be seniors, that should be for all
Speaker 7: American families.
Speaker 3: Jeene Sperling, senior economic advisor to the Harris Walls campaign,
Speaker 3: Thank you Gene for the time today we're going to
Speaker 3: be hearing from Kamala Harris, although I guess Gene just
Speaker 3: gave us a good sense of what we're going to hear.
Speaker 3: Starting it to forty five Eastern time again, Raleigh, North Carolina.
Speaker 3: We'll see when things actually begin, will bring you that address,
Speaker 3: of course live. When she begins speaking, we're going to
Speaker 3: talk to Gene Soroka, the executive director of the Port
Speaker 3: of La coming up here. But first want to compare
Speaker 3: notes with our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are
Speaker 3: with us now Bloomberg Politics contributors. After quite a dive
Speaker 3: there with Gene Sperling, Genie, is that the best way
Speaker 3: to speak to people about the economy to talk them
Speaker 3: off a cliff?
Speaker 8: Yes, I mean what she really needs to do is
Speaker 8: people are sour about the economy. I mean, of course,
Speaker 8: we've had some good numbers in the last couple of
Speaker 8: weeks on inflation and sentiment that you've been talking about,
Speaker 8: but people are sour on it. So her major message
Speaker 8: has got to be and I feel your pain. I
Speaker 8: am understanding where where you've come from, because this is
Speaker 8: my middle class background. As Jean Sperling was just talking about,
Speaker 8: this is what I did as Attorney General, and this
Speaker 8: is what I plan to do going forward. But she's
Speaker 8: really got a show that she's prepared to take on
Speaker 8: the costs that people are frustrated with. And so it's
Speaker 8: a start. I wouldn't say it's an end, but certainly
Speaker 8: it's a start.
Speaker 3: Gene just spent some time with us here speaking on
Speaker 3: behalf of the campaign. Rick is that the tone that
Speaker 3: the Harris campaign should be taking. It was almost like
Speaker 3: he was reading out of a phone book to us.
Speaker 9: Well, I think you've got a good set of talking
Speaker 9: points from the guy who wrote them, and I'm sure
Speaker 9: there's a lot of authorship there. So I think, setting
Speaker 9: aside the style, I think there's some red flags. I
Speaker 9: mean one, she's at least laying out a relatively detailed
Speaker 9: plan on what she thinks can help spur economic growth,
Speaker 9: but also, you know, lower prices. The problem is that
Speaker 9: the genesis of the inflation curve was government spending nothing.
Speaker 9: In there about reigning in the growth of government spending
Speaker 9: nothing in there about sensitivity to deficits. Nothing in there
Speaker 9: about how you're going to balance a budget. So I mean,
Speaker 9: at the end of the day, you can promise anything anybody,
Speaker 9: but you know, how do you pay for it?
Speaker 3: Well, let's put a finer point on this. With Rick
Speaker 3: Davis and Jeanie Shanzo coming up here, we'll spend more
Speaker 3: time with our panel in the news on the trail today,
Speaker 3: coinciding with important data on the economy. It's straight ahead.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 3: Good to have you with us here on the Friday
Speaker 3: edition of Balance of Power. You made it to the
Speaker 3: threshold of the weekend. A lot of people in Washington
Speaker 3: are headed for the airport on the way to Chicago
Speaker 3: because one week from right now, we'll be reviewing the
Speaker 3: big nomination acceptance speech from the night earlier from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: A lot's gonna happen between now and then. Right, we've
Speaker 3: got Joe Biden starting things off on Monday night. Tim
Speaker 3: Walls is Wednesday, the big one Thursday, and a lot
Speaker 3: of fascinating conversations in between. Here on Bloomberg, we will
Speaker 3: be on the ground with all of our political shows,
Speaker 3: and by that I mean this one Balance of Power
Speaker 3: twelve to two pm Eastern time, five to six pm
Speaker 3: Eastern We're going to have it all for you, including
Speaker 3: special coverage on Thursday night Whenkamala Harris accepts the nomination,
Speaker 3: just like we did for the Republicans in Milwaukee. And
Speaker 3: you don't just like show up for this kind of stuff.
Speaker 3: You need an advanced team, and that has led by
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's in Chicago right now and is
Speaker 3: going to be reporting along with us next week. But
Speaker 3: as the preparations get underway, this is a fascinating time
Speaker 3: to be in Chicago, right. The barriers are going up,
Speaker 3: cops are arriving from all over the country, and Tyler,
Speaker 3: you tell us what you're seeing. How's it going in Chicago?
Speaker 10: Yeah, Hey, Joe, you can actually see the United Center
Speaker 10: right over my shoulder. Of course, that is where the
Speaker 10: Democratic National Convention will kick off on Monday. We headed
Speaker 10: over to the arena earlier today to start to see
Speaker 10: some of those security precautions that you're mentioning going into place.
Speaker 10: We saw one hundreds of law enforcement officers and Secret
Speaker 10: Service agents doing a walkthrough of the arena and and
Speaker 10: some of those big security barricades starting to go up
Speaker 10: over the perimeters. Because Joe, the DNC says that they're
Speaker 10: expecting fifty thousand people to flock to Chicago next week
Speaker 10: to tend the convention. And for the Chicago Police Department's part,
Speaker 10: they say that they're allocating twenty five hundred law enforcement
Speaker 10: officers specifically to patrol the arena and its perimeter. And
Speaker 10: this is important because one of the themes that we're
Speaker 10: going to be watching for next week, as you've been
Speaker 10: covering on Balance of Power, is the energy behind potential
Speaker 10: protests that we're expecting to descend on the DNC. I
Speaker 10: will point out that earlier this week, a federal judge
Speaker 10: actually ruled against protesters, saying that they wanted a different
Speaker 10: route right now. The route goes about two blocks away
Speaker 10: from the United Center. They're arguing that that violates their
Speaker 10: first Amendment rights because it doesn't get them close enough,
Speaker 10: and the root's also not as long as they wanted. However,
Speaker 10: that judge ruled that the current route is what prioritizes safety,
Speaker 10: and that's what the city has put into place where
Speaker 10: everybody involved, from protesters to delegates to all of us
Speaker 10: on the ground. But Joe quickly, I just want to
Speaker 10: point out that while we have been talking about this
Speaker 10: expected enthusiasm when it does come to protesters, we're also
Speaker 10: watching for enthusiasm for the Harris Walls ticket. I would
Speaker 10: point you to our latest Bloomberg News Morning Console pulling,
Speaker 10: particularly when it comes to young voters. I found that
Speaker 10: in some key battleground states now fifty four percent of
Speaker 10: young voters ages eighteen to thirty four say that they're
Speaker 10: more likely to vote now that President Biden is out
Speaker 10: of the race. It's interesting to think that just weeks ago,
Speaker 10: we had thought that this was going to be his convention.
Speaker 3: Yeah, fascinating stuff. This is a really interesting moment that
Speaker 3: we're in Tyler, and I'm glad to hear the cicadas
Speaker 3: have made it in time. I think they beat the
Speaker 3: delegates to Chicago. We're learning a little bit more about
Speaker 3: the lineup here Wednesday night is starting to come together.
Speaker 3: It looks like Nancy Pelosi will speak two nights after
Speaker 3: the man she helped to push out of the race
Speaker 3: does the same. Tom Swazi is going to be speaking
Speaker 3: as well, on the matter of immigration, of course, the
Speaker 3: New York congressman who won back his old seat on
Speaker 3: largely that issue of immigrant that we he handled that
Speaker 3: in New York following the George Santos saga. Tyler, what's
Speaker 3: the rest of the week looking like? What are the
Speaker 3: highlights here on the four days that we'll be covered.
Speaker 10: Right, So, besides the names that you mentioned, and that
Speaker 10: we know that President Biden's going to be headlining on
Speaker 10: Monday night, we know that the Clintons are also going
Speaker 10: to speak as well as former President Barack Obama. But Joe,
Speaker 10: I want to point out that while we are watching
Speaker 10: for who will be here at the DNC, I'm also
Speaker 10: watching for who isn't going to be here. We have
Speaker 10: a new reporting now that Senator Shared Brown and also
Speaker 10: Senator John Tester, two key senators in some critical critical
Speaker 10: Senate races in Ohio and Montana, respectively, say that they
Speaker 10: will not be here. There's also a reporting coming out
Speaker 10: that Senator Jackie Rosen, a Democrat in Nevada, will also
Speaker 10: not attend. I know that our team's working to confirm that.
Speaker 10: So it's really interesting to watch how some of these
Speaker 10: vulnerable Democrats are opting not to come to the DNC,
Speaker 10: saying instead that they are needed back home to campaign.
Speaker 10: Because we are really in the thick of it as
Speaker 10: we count down to November.
Speaker 2: We sure are.
Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall, great reporting with the elgoing by behind her,
Speaker 3: the cicadas singing in the tree is a true vision
Speaker 3: of Chicago.
Speaker 2: Tyler.
Speaker 3: Thank you. We'll meet you there this weekend. And again,
Speaker 3: we have a lot of special coverage planned throughout next week,
Speaker 3: and Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are going to be
Speaker 3: a major part of it. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors
Speaker 3: back with us here on our signature panel. Before we
Speaker 3: get to Kamala Harris's economic plan, Genie, that idea that
Speaker 3: some members feel a need to boycott. This is going
Speaker 3: to happen both parties, right every four years for some
Speaker 3: frontliners who don't want to necessarily be associated with the incumbent.
Speaker 3: But in this case, it's not really the incumbent. What's
Speaker 3: up with the protest?
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, it is fascinating to hear that, and
Speaker 8: of course Jackie Rosen is the one that surprises me.
Speaker 8: But I think it's a reflection of the fact how
Speaker 8: vulnerable Brown and Tester are and Jackie Rosen and how
Speaker 8: much they realize that they do not want to be
Speaker 8: associated with the DNC at this point in these dates
Speaker 8: where the DNC, particularly on its economic record, is not
Speaker 8: particularly popular. Even though with the switch to Kamala Harris
Speaker 8: it has become more popular. You could say, it still
Speaker 8: isn't enough to get these folks there. They're just not
Speaker 8: willing to take a chance. But just fascinating that they
Speaker 8: are going to be boycotting, or let's say they're going
Speaker 8: to be spending their time in their states where they're needed.
Speaker 3: Well, I guess that's right, Rick, You've dealt with this,
Speaker 3: You've actually run a convention. Is that just part of
Speaker 3: the game. You know that they're going to be certain
Speaker 3: members of the conference who can't be associated with the
Speaker 3: program you're putting together, and that's okay with you because
Speaker 3: you also want them to win.
Speaker 9: Yeah, for sure. Look, I mean, if you're not on
Speaker 9: the podium during the course of the week, and you're
Speaker 9: a member of Congress or Senate or whatnot, and you've
Speaker 9: got a race to run, you really got to wonder
Speaker 9: what am I going to do for four days. You
Speaker 9: can't fund raise there because it's in competition with the ticket.
Speaker 9: You can come to Bloomberg and talk to us. We'll
Speaker 9: take you. But outside of that, you know, you're twidling
Speaker 9: your thumbs and you know, saying hi to people and
Speaker 9: drinking and eating too much. So the reality is there's
Speaker 9: a lot of other things to do in the Democratic
Speaker 9: Party and Republican Party and going to their conventions. And
Speaker 9: by the way, no one's ever going to say, gee,
Speaker 9: we missed you. There's plenty to keep people busy doing, so.
Speaker 3: Er really much to do about nothing. M hmm. I
Speaker 3: want to get into the plan here, because we're going
Speaker 3: to not only get a speech today on the economy
Speaker 3: by Kamala Harris, but it's going to resonate next week.
Speaker 3: It will surely be part of her acceptance speech on
Speaker 3: Thursday night, we'll hear her surrogates putting this forward. Jeanie
Speaker 3: Rick took an initial swing at some of these ideas.
Speaker 3: We've got three big buckets. As I mentioned, we're going
Speaker 3: to hear about today tax credits, and that's specifically the
Speaker 3: child tax credit, of course, but some other new credit
Speaker 3: for child as low wage workers, increasing subsidies for those
Speaker 3: who purchase insurance on federal health exchanges. Then you've got
Speaker 3: homeowner assistants incentives here also a plan to boost home construction,
Speaker 3: as we learned today that construction fell to the lowest
Speaker 3: level since May of twenty twenty. That's where the market
Speaker 3: is stuck in the mud. And then price controls the
Speaker 3: matter of inflation, grocery prices, the ban as she will
Speaker 3: propose on price gouging. Rick asked a pretty important question
Speaker 3: though here, Jennie, where is the language, Where is the
Speaker 3: proposal to cut government spending?
Speaker 8: I think what we will hear and I don't know
Speaker 8: if we'll hear it today on this point, but certainly
Speaker 8: going forward, is that she would like to raise taxes
Speaker 8: on the ultra wealthy. They also would like to ensure
Speaker 8: that the IRS is collecting taxes, and that is something
Speaker 8: that Biden administration put forward that Republicans balked up. So
Speaker 8: I think they are going to have information on how
Speaker 8: they will pay for this. But you know, if you
Speaker 8: look across Democrats and Republicans, quite frankly, pay for is
Speaker 8: on any of this is a huge shortcoming. Okay, yesterday
Speaker 8: with Donald Trump talking, he's talking about lowering taxes, but
Speaker 8: he never talks about how he is going to pay
Speaker 8: for what is coming down the pike. And one thing
Speaker 8: I think that we can all agree on is that
Speaker 8: even if Donald Trump wins, even if Kamala Harris wins,
Speaker 8: we are going to see a growth in federal spending
Speaker 8: that is almost certain, and nobody is going to say
Speaker 8: how to pay for it in any way that makes
Speaker 8: economists feel good about these plans. So I think it's
Speaker 8: a deficit on both sides. I do think she'll talk
Speaker 8: about raising taxes on the wealthy, but it's not going
Speaker 8: to cover the spending that they're talking about for sure,
Speaker 8: and it's a problem.
Speaker 3: So pay fors, I guess wouldn't be necessarily part of
Speaker 3: an economic policy address. Rick, does she need to identify
Speaker 3: at some point, if not today, how indeed would pay
Speaker 3: for these or nobody cares about this anymore. We'll get
Speaker 3: religion on debt and deficits some other time.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And presidential campaigns in the past you had to
Speaker 9: show your pay for us, right, I mean, like the
Speaker 9: press would kill you if you said, oh, I'm going
Speaker 9: to cut taxes for middle class and you know, but
Speaker 9: you didn't say how you're going to actually fill that
Speaker 9: budget gap or you know, I need to reduce spending
Speaker 9: in some way. Where's it going to come out of?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 9: What programs are going to get cut?
Speaker 6: Yeah, we.
Speaker 9: Add to the fabric of overspending because we don't hold
Speaker 9: these politicians feet to the fire. I mean both Trump
Speaker 9: and Harrison and Frankly Biden too. I mean like these
Speaker 9: are these are back to back administrations that spent over
Speaker 9: six to seven to eight trillion dollars a year, massive
Speaker 9: increases in spending. We are now in the post COVID era.
Speaker 9: It's time to pay back the dividend. And nothing will
Speaker 9: bring inflation down, nothing will squeeze the prices for consumers
Speaker 9: more than if the government tightens their belt first. And
Speaker 9: so before we start going after corporations, before we start
Speaker 9: giving away brebs. You know, twenty five thousand dollars anybody
Speaker 9: wants to buy a house, where's that coming from?
Speaker 4: Is that my twenty five thousand dollars?
Speaker 6: A taxpayer?
Speaker 3: I'd like to know, right, But that's no different than
Speaker 3: making the Trump tax cuts permanent.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Nobody seems to care on either campaign how to pay
Speaker 3: for any of these.
Speaker 9: Things, same exact thing. Neither one of these candidates are
Speaker 9: asked the question after their press conference, where's the money
Speaker 9: coming from?
Speaker 3: My Twitter notifications ought to be roughly equally balanced, I
Speaker 3: think today, Genie, I know I'm striking it right when
Speaker 3: I get hate from both sides of the aisle here,
Speaker 3: is it not deserved this criticism for both candidates.
Speaker 8: It absolutely is. And you know, and by the way,
Speaker 8: Joe Matthew, nobody could hate you, So I reject that proposition,
Speaker 8: but you know, it's got to know me. Yet it's
Speaker 8: absolutely true that this is both science and the reality
Speaker 8: is it's the American voter, all of us who are
Speaker 8: to blame for this, because these politicians are doing what
Speaker 8: they think will get us to support them. And it
Speaker 8: is not a popular thing to stand up and say,
Speaker 8: we have Social Security is going to be insolvent, so
Speaker 8: we're going to take that on. So, you know, we
Speaker 8: have to.
Speaker 3: Look at our wish I had a chance to ask
Speaker 3: jean Spurling about it, Jeanie Shanz no, Rick Davis, Thank you,
Speaker 3: great panel. The speech, by the way a little over
Speaker 3: an hour away, Kamala Harris, you'll hear it live right
Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg CV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Friday edition Indeed of Balance of Power.
Speaker 3: You're almost there the threshold of the weekend, with some
Speaker 3: important economic data to digest before you get on that
Speaker 3: plane to Chicago. I'll meet you there. But housing is
Speaker 3: in the air today, and so is consumer sentiment, Rick
Speaker 3: Davis's favorite political poll. They both tell a slightly different
Speaker 3: story here. Housing is just as stubborn as can be,
Speaker 3: with construction falling to the lowest level since May of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Remember what you were doing in May of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Not a good time for the housing market.
Speaker 3: And Kamala Harris's going to be talking about ways to
Speaker 3: potentially unlock some opportunity there when she speaks later today.
Speaker 3: But this is a very difficult scenario we're looking at
Speaker 3: ahead of potential interest rate cuts next month. The other,
Speaker 3: as I mentioned, though, a bit rosier. Consumer sentiment rising
Speaker 3: for the first time in five months, and it's partly
Speaker 3: due to the fact, as researchers found that Joe Biden
Speaker 3: dropped out of the presidential race and consumers are feeling
Speaker 3: a little more optimistic about things. Just two weeks after
Speaker 3: we were hearing the R word again in Washington and
Speaker 3: on Wall The markets have done a wild round trip
Speaker 3: since then, and we wanted to compare notes with our
Speaker 3: friend David Weston to get a sense of just where
Speaker 3: we are. Of course, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week,
Speaker 3: he is with us live at World Headquarters in New York.
Speaker 3: David remarkable here to see consumer sentiment jumping with this
Speaker 3: political evolution happening as the backdrop. We saw immediate changes
Speaker 3: in moods when Joe Biden decided to drop out of
Speaker 3: the race.
Speaker 11: How about it, Well, how about it, Joe? Exactly right.
Speaker 11: I mean, the markets are all breathing a very big
Speaker 11: sigh of relief. It had kind of topps each every
Speaker 11: time you have to wonder whether the Kamala Harris campaign
Speaker 11: isn't as well because, as you say, it wasn't that
Speaker 11: long ago all the banks were taking back out there
Speaker 11: recession estimates, right and revising you again. We were talking
Speaker 11: about it again. Yeah, but right now it doesn't look
Speaker 11: like it's going that way, which they've got to be
Speaker 11: pretty happy about. And on the housing front, it did
Speaker 11: strike me. Do we have Kamala Harris trying to outdo
Speaker 11: Oprah Winfrey instead of you got a car, you get
Speaker 11: a hard house. Anybody you got a house, you get
Speaker 11: a house, you get a house.
Speaker 3: It's pretty reach under your seat, David, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 11: It's that time of the season, isn't it that we've
Speaker 11: seen in elections, Joe, where basically the candidates, both for
Speaker 11: both sides are just tell us, boy, we're gonna have
Speaker 11: everything with them. You know, chicken in every pot. Wasn't
Speaker 11: that what they used to say?
Speaker 3: Yes, sure, now I think it's a pot in every
Speaker 3: chicken depending on the state you're talking about. So to
Speaker 3: your point, she's going to offer as much as twenty
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars for first time home buyers. More than
Speaker 3: a million first time home buyers with a two year
Speaker 3: history of on time rent payments would be eligible. First,
Speaker 3: what they're calling down payment support. But how do you
Speaker 3: pay for that?
Speaker 11: Well, that's the big question. Although I must say, Joe,
Speaker 11: I haven't heard either parties who particularly concerned about how
Speaker 11: to pay for anything lately, right, I mean, we can
Speaker 11: do almost anything to borrow more money, even as the
Speaker 11: economists tell us at some point there's gonna be a
Speaker 11: piper to pay here. But thus far nobody seems too
Speaker 11: concerned about it. And it'll be curious, actually, I'll be
Speaker 11: curious after the election to see whether there are economic
Speaker 11: strategists and polyp sey makers on one side to the other,
Speaker 11: whoever gets to be president, who actually starts to deal
Speaker 11: with some of this stuff, and whether the bond market
Speaker 11: makes them deal with some of it, which is entirely possible.
Speaker 3: You're right. Look, these two campaigns have a lot in
Speaker 3: common when it comes to not showing how to pay
Speaker 3: for things you consider extending or making permanent. The Trump
Speaker 3: tax cuts, for instance, never mind no tips on or
Speaker 3: taxes on tips. Miami Guinness would tell you that costs
Speaker 3: two hundred billion dollars right off the top there, But
Speaker 3: nobody wants to talk about numbers and no.
Speaker 11: Tax, no text on social Security, and by the way,
Speaker 11: let's up the child tax credit to five thousand dollars.
Speaker 11: It all sounds very good. At the same time, we
Speaker 11: did talk to an economis or prominent economists. He's Jan Hatiis.
Speaker 11: He's the chief econdoms for Globin Sax Today for Wall
Speaker 11: Street Week, and we asked him about that chance of
Speaker 11: recession and he tied it right back. Actually, the uncertainty
Speaker 11: coming out of the presidential elections. This is part of
Speaker 11: why he said he has a somewhat, not highly, but
Speaker 11: a somewhat elevated chance of recession because of that election.
Speaker 12: The way I think about it is that fifteen percent
Speaker 12: is the long term average. We've had one recession every
Speaker 12: seven years in the post war period, and you know,
Speaker 12: conceivably there can be points in the business cycle where
Speaker 12: you might want to say the twelve month forward probability
Speaker 12: is less than fifteen percent, because inflation has been beaten
Speaker 12: and aggurate demands still seems to be growing at a
Speaker 12: decent pace, the Fed is lowering interest rates. I'd be reluctant, though,
Speaker 12: given the political uncertainty and the uncertainty around economic policy,
Speaker 12: to go significantly below fifteen percent, even if everything else
Speaker 12: sort of looks on track, just because there are significant
Speaker 12: uncertainties around tariff policy, around tax policy, and just around
Speaker 12: you know a number of political issues, geopolitical issues that
Speaker 12: are also of course an important factor and will be
Speaker 12: affected by, you know, what a new administration does.
Speaker 11: So, Joe, they have jan Hatziis from Globin's Hacks, And
Speaker 11: it turns out that we up here in New York
Speaker 11: are paying attention to what you're doing down there in Washington.
Speaker 11: There's a certain amount of uncertainty around things like trade
Speaker 11: balls and geopolitics. So it does make a difference to
Speaker 11: Wall Street after.
Speaker 3: All, paying attention with great trepidation. Look, he made big news, David.
Speaker 3: This is an important conversation when he increased recession ads
Speaker 3: to twenty five percent from fifteen. That was a scary
Speaker 3: moment two weeks ago. We've basically round tripped since then.
Speaker 3: So Wall Street doesn't seem to be concerned about it.
Speaker 3: What is the market telling us.
Speaker 11: Well, you know how Wall Street works. They were concerned.
Speaker 11: They got over it right quick, and even that Monday,
Speaker 11: we could go Monday when everybody was so concerned about
Speaker 11: an emergency FED rate cut. You remember there were people
Speaker 11: putting pretty good odds of that the thing that people,
Speaker 11: I think we're not folcus on that now they do
Speaker 11: talk about is the markets were functioning just fine. They
Speaker 11: weren't freezing up, and in fact, the bond market was
Speaker 11: doing just fine, and so it was it was a
Speaker 11: puzzle to me why the FED would step in in
Speaker 11: that circumstance. As far as I know, part of the
Speaker 11: mandate for the FED is not to make sure I
Speaker 11: don't lose money on a stock that I paid too
Speaker 11: much for. You know, it seemed like whilst she was saying, boy,
Speaker 11: you should bare me out, Jerome Poll, I paid too
Speaker 11: much for the stock. I'm like, I might lose some
Speaker 11: money here. That's not very fun.
Speaker 3: Doesn't exactly work that way, but it certainly doesn't look
Speaker 3: like a recession in the cards when you look at
Speaker 3: this market. Some of the data might argue with that,
Speaker 3: but that's also in part why we have David Weston.
Speaker 3: Aren't you in the perfect spot right now? Truly at
Speaker 3: the intersection of politics and the economy, which is why
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Wall Street Week is so important and such a
Speaker 3: great part of the conversation here every day. David, it's
Speaker 3: good to see you. We'll look forward to the program
Speaker 3: six pm Eastern time, Wall Street Time here on Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. David'll see you back here next week.
Speaker 3: What we'll have to talk about then with the convention
Speaker 3: in our rearview mirror. But we want to add another
Speaker 3: voice on the economy here because this is important what's
Speaker 3: going on right now, and we're about an hour away
Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris rolling out her economic policy proposals. Lindsay
Speaker 3: Owens is with us, the executive director of Groundwork Collaborative,
Speaker 3: former senior economic advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lindsay has
Speaker 3: been calling for interest rate cuts by the way since
Speaker 3: long before July, and she is with us now as
Speaker 3: we look ahead to September, Lindsay, there's a concern that
Speaker 3: the Fed has waited too long. I don't know what
Speaker 3: difference twenty five basis points might have made. But when
Speaker 3: you look at that housing report today, construction following to falling,
Speaker 3: I should say, to its lowest level since May of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Are we to believe that Kamala Harris can
Speaker 3: unfreeze this market with the plan she is going to
Speaker 3: outline today.
Speaker 13: Yeah, So we need a few things working in our
Speaker 13: favor here. First, we absolutely have to see the Federal
Speaker 13: Reserve take decisive action in September. Fifty basis points, maybe
Speaker 13: seventy five is actually what the doctor ordered at this
Speaker 13: point given where the housing market is. But second, we
Speaker 13: absolutely are going to need to bring incentives online for
Speaker 13: new construction, and that's exactly what the Vice President is
Speaker 13: going to lay out this afternoon and her economic which
Speaker 13: includes at least three million new units. By the way,
Speaker 13: I am not someone who thinks this is some pie
Speaker 13: in the sky wish list. As you correctly mentioned, next year,
Speaker 13: we see key provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and
Speaker 13: Jobs Act expiring, which means there's going to be a
Speaker 13: live legislative tax fight next year. The door is open,
Speaker 13: there's a moving vehicle. Congress is going to act on
Speaker 13: the tax code, and what better time to start providing
Speaker 13: real incentives in the tax code for new construction. So
Speaker 13: I think this is actually a very feasible, very achievable
Speaker 13: agenda that the Vice President is planning to lay out
Speaker 13: later today, and I think it could happen as early
Speaker 13: as next year.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 3: Fascinating. We're going to hear about a lot of things
Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris today, not just housing. Grocery prices, but
Speaker 3: also tax credits, and this is an area of a
Speaker 3: bit of overlap between these two campaigns. Lindsay, what do
Speaker 3: you make of a world in which JD. Vance is
Speaker 3: offering a more generous child tax credit than Kamala Harris.
Speaker 13: Look, I think the child tax credit has grown in
Speaker 13: popularity over the last decade that I've been in Washington
Speaker 13: and has started to have some bipartisan consensus in support
Speaker 13: of it. Of course, it was Joe Biden, a Democratic president,
Speaker 13: who pursued the largest increase in the child tax credit,
Speaker 13: and I would expect that the Vice president will follow suit,
Speaker 13: and her campaign has released a few additions and enhancements
Speaker 13: to the child tax credit that she'll be talking about
Speaker 13: later today. But both parties, I think understand that child
Speaker 13: poverty is a policy choice, one that we can easily solve,
Speaker 13: and by the way, we have the money to solve this.
Speaker 13: I don't know if you remember, but the Biden Harris
Speaker 13: budget lays out five trillion dollars in taxes on the
Speaker 13: wealthy and corporations. That is plenty of pay fors, plenty
Speaker 13: of money to fund a sizable and significant increase in
Speaker 13: the child tax credit. Getting cash in family's hands, getting
Speaker 13: families back onto main street shopping, buying things they need,
Speaker 13: groceries and the rest.
Speaker 3: How do you pay for down payment support of twenty
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars for one million first time home buyers?
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, look, we've got five trillion in taxes
Speaker 13: on the wealthy and corporations and the Biden Harris budget,
Speaker 13: and that's sort of a relative consensus position.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 13: We can move up the corporate tax rate, which Donald
Speaker 13: Trump lowered to twenty one percent. There are Democrats who
Speaker 13: want to see it at twenty five percent. They're Democrats
Speaker 13: who want to see it at twenty eight percent, They're
Speaker 13: Democrats who want to see it at thirty five percent.
Speaker 13: So we've got a lot of room to run on
Speaker 13: the corporate tax rate. We can bring individual rates back
Speaker 13: to where they were in twenty seventeen before Donald Trump
Speaker 13: lowered them. So I think there's actually a huge room
Speaker 13: to run here on P fours. I'm not worried about
Speaker 13: it at all.
Speaker 3: Well, it also comes with a proposal to create a
Speaker 3: federal ban on price gouging. Does this agenda specifically the
Speaker 3: federal ban on price gouging, which would of course require
Speaker 3: congressional approval. Does this entire agenda ride on a Democratic
Speaker 3: SUITEP in the House and Senate.
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's a great question. As I mentioned, I do
Speaker 13: think the tax pieces are very achievable in most scenarios,
Speaker 13: given that Republicans in Congress are going to want to
Speaker 13: see tax cuts extended for the middle class, and so
Speaker 13: I think that provides a lot of running room to
Speaker 13: get quite a bit done on tax next year, the
Speaker 13: child tax credit, expanded tax incentives for home buyers and
Speaker 13: for development as well. I think, you know, a federal
Speaker 13: ban on price gouging probably would require a trifecta. However,
Speaker 13: remember there are pieces of price fixing that can be
Speaker 13: taken on.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 13: We've seen price and sugar and beef and chicken and eggs,
Speaker 13: and the current Department of Justice is pursuing some of
Speaker 13: these aggressively. They're also pursuing a price fixing case in
Speaker 13: the housing market. We've had a company, real Page, an
Speaker 13: algorithmic price fixing software platform helping landlords price fix rents
Speaker 13: at large buildings, multifamily buildings across the country. So there's
Speaker 13: a lot the Department can do on enforcement and on
Speaker 13: regulatory authority. Already in the food and agricultural space. I'd
Speaker 13: love to see the federal price gouging band move in
Speaker 13: a legislative trifecta as well.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: That would be quite an accomplishment, Lindsay, I've got less
Speaker 3: than a minute left here. I don't know if you
Speaker 3: saw Donald Trump outdoors with all the groceries yesterday had cereal, milk, eggs,
Speaker 3: and bacon sausage all out there in the sun. Will
Speaker 3: his plan lower grocery prices?
Speaker 11: Yeah?
Speaker 13: I mean, look, we've seen the economic analysis of the
Speaker 13: Trump Plan and of Project twenty twenty five, which is
Speaker 13: really the full Republican agenda headed into a Trump presidency
Speaker 13: if that's where we land in November, and I think
Speaker 13: the scoring on this is pretty clear that we would
Speaker 13: see across the board price increases due to a number
Speaker 13: of his policies, including the large tire of proposals.
Speaker 3: Well, before I get all the tweets, Donald Trump has
Speaker 3: separated himself from Trump Project twenty twenty five. That's a
Speaker 3: Heritage Foundation thing, Lindsay Owens. Great to see you, and
Speaker 3: I know there are lots of former Trump administration officials there.
Speaker 3: Executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative. Great to have you back, Lindsay,
Speaker 3: and thank you for being part of our conversation today
Speaker 3: in Washington. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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