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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay.

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Speaker 2: And then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris holding forth in Raleigh, North Carolina with her

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Speaker 3: economic policy proposals today, and as we've told you, she's

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Speaker 3: painting out of three buckets, largely housing assistance. We're going

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Speaker 3: to be talking about expanding tax credits and some other

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Speaker 3: issues that we may not have heard about so far yet.

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Speaker 3: But controlling prices, which has been a big theme of

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Speaker 3: the week, will be a big part of this, with

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Speaker 3: a proposal to create a federal ban on price gouging.

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Speaker 3: That's two forty five technically Eastern time, if all things

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Speaker 3: start on time, and we're going to talk in a

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Speaker 3: moment with Gene Spurling about what to expect as we

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Speaker 3: set the baseline with my colleague Eric Wasson, and one

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Speaker 3: of the most important pieces of journalism that you can

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Speaker 3: read today must Win Michigan's angst over inflation in EVS

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Speaker 3: shapes the twenty twenty four race. Great on the ground

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Speaker 3: reporting by way of Tony M's Restaurant and Lansing. Eric,

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Speaker 3: It's great to have you. Thank you for joining us

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Speaker 3: as always here on Bloomberg. There's a particular line that

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Speaker 3: jumps off the page in your piece today, as we

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Speaker 3: consider these candidates going out of their way to try

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Speaker 3: to pitch economic policy proposals, you write, neither Trump nor

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Speaker 3: Harris have offered many specifics on their plans to cut

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Speaker 3: the high costs, which have this woman you interviewed here

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Speaker 3: at the restaurant contemplating layoffs. This is the week where

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Speaker 3: the campaigns fill in the blanks. What are people in

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Speaker 3: Michigan looking to hear?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I was jove reh Michigan for a week.

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Speaker 5: I was very impressed by how sphiscated voters are, especially

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Speaker 5: about the auto industry out there. There's a real wively

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Speaker 5: debate among the popular of the wisdom of pushing electric vehicles,

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Speaker 5: of you know, sort of having pollution laws that would

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Speaker 5: basically push the car companies into making more of them,

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Speaker 5: of incentivizing them. You know, a lot of auto workers

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Speaker 5: are afraid that there's fewer parts that I mean, fewer

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Speaker 5: jobs and this is risky for GM, which was in

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Speaker 5: bankruptcy a decade and a half ago. So that was

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Speaker 5: very interesting. You know, this restaurant that I went and

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Speaker 5: talked to, they're big supporters of the union. The union

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Speaker 5: pickets out front whenever there's a strike. But she might

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Speaker 5: vote for Trump because times are better, prices were lower.

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Speaker 4: She got twenty five employees, and with the cost of.

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Speaker 5: Food and new minimum wage law in Michigan going into effects,

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Speaker 5: she might have to lay some of them off. And

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Speaker 5: we heard that through I heard that throughout the state.

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Speaker 5: And Democrats are really you know, they're not playing defense.

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Speaker 5: They're not talking about bidnomics. In the fact, they're saying,

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Speaker 5: we hear some concrete proposals to move forward. And that's

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Speaker 5: what voters are saying. They want to hear. They don't

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Speaker 5: want to hear a personality campaign. They're sick of the

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Speaker 5: mud slinging. But they're very worried about prices. And what

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Speaker 5: we heard from the Republicans is more energy production, you know,

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Speaker 5: go back really pushing fossil fuel vehicles and what Motown

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Speaker 5: is famous for producing as far as motors, and like

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Speaker 5: Slotkin on down saying we have an industrial policy. The

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Speaker 5: evs are the way of the future. They'll either be

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Speaker 5: built in China or built here. And as far as costs,

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Speaker 5: we can address housing, we can address prescription drugs, which

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Speaker 5: has already started to tackle.

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Speaker 4: We can address student loans.

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Speaker 5: While acknowledging, you know, I think the lower ballot candies

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Speaker 5: acknowledge that maybe price gouging legislation won't be a pure

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Speaker 5: all And certainly I think voters are going to disappointed

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Speaker 5: that we may slow inflation, but we're not going to

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Speaker 5: go back to twenty nineteen prices. That's just not really

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Speaker 5: how the economy works. So I thought it was very interesting.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, these are swing districts a swing state.

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Speaker 5: You know, the eighth and seventh district in Michigan could

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Speaker 5: flip the house. That's where Dan Kildy is retiring and

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Speaker 5: Slotkin's moving trying to move on to the Senate, and

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Speaker 5: these these voters are really on the fence.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's real life stuff here. You talk about Tony

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Speaker 3: M's restaurant. They had to actually cut their hours, Eric

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Speaker 3: because GM got rid of the third shift. This is

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Speaker 3: the stuff that we don't always talk about in Washington.

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Speaker 3: And to that end, Alyssa Slotkin. You mentioned the congresswoman

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Speaker 3: here a moment ago with a quote in your story.

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Speaker 3: If I hear one more Washington based, Harvard educated person

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Speaker 3: tell me no, it's really better and the economy is

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Speaker 3: actually very good, I'm gonna have to maybe depart that meeting.

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Speaker 3: How does Kamala Harris get to that today?

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Speaker 4: You know, I think that she's doing.

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Speaker 5: I think what Slacka would want her to do and

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Speaker 5: probably asked her to do when they met in Detroit

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Speaker 5: earlier this month, is to talk about concrete policy proposals.

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Speaker 5: You know, I don't know if Slakin's going to endorse everything.

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Speaker 5: She's probably running a little bit to the right of Harris,

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Speaker 5: as she must. But you know, they want to see

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Speaker 5: meaty proposals, and that's what voters want to see.

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Speaker 4: And I saw very few.

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Speaker 5: You know, I saw some retirees who already owned their

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Speaker 5: house that the economy was doing well. But young people, millennials,

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Speaker 5: jen z all very angsty about starting a family. When

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Speaker 5: can they ever afford a house? When can they save up?

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Speaker 5: And as Luckin said, there's no point going and trying

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Speaker 5: to sell people that hey, I thinks are actually good

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Speaker 5: because these stats they they are people know their pocketbook.

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Speaker 3: Eric, thank you so much. Great to see you in

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Speaker 3: great reporting. Find that piece on the terminal and online.

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Speaker 3: Eric Wasason Bloomberg, congressional reporter getting into the field. This

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Speaker 3: is on the ground reporting, and it's something that Gene

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Speaker 3: Sperling knows a lot about because now he's back on

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Speaker 3: the trail from the White House joining the Harris campaign

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Speaker 3: as senior economic advisor. The last time we spoke, he

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Speaker 3: was an economic advisor to President Biden, and he joins

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Speaker 3: us in a new capacity today. Gene, it's great to

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Speaker 3: have you back on Bloomberg with the speech less than

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Speaker 3: two hours away from Kamala Harris. What should her message?

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Speaker 3: What will her message be to the people eating at

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Speaker 3: Tony M's restaurant in Lansing, Michigan, who are bemoaning the

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Speaker 3: fact that GM got rid of a third shift. How

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Speaker 3: does she win their trust to handle the economy over

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump?

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Speaker 6: Well, what they're going to hear from a vice president.

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Speaker 6: Here is.

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Speaker 7: A presidential candidate who is focused like a laser on

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Speaker 7: taking on powerful interests to lower costs that are affecting

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Speaker 7: them right now and doing so in her first one

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Speaker 7: hundred days. So she's going to be laying out a

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Speaker 7: plan that first of all, is going to make clear

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Speaker 7: that we're going to have the first federal law ever

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Speaker 7: that allows banning price gouging by grocery chains, by the

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Speaker 7: meat industry.

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Speaker 6: That because I think that.

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Speaker 7: A lot of average people are thinking, you know, agree

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Speaker 7: with her that they saw a lot of big companies,

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Speaker 7: grocery companies, food companies keep their profit margins high as

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Speaker 7: opposed to passing on savings at a time when people

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Speaker 7: still think rightly so that food prices are still high,

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Speaker 7: even with food inflation coming down, they still look at

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Speaker 7: where things were three years ago and they feel like

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Speaker 7: it's too high, and they want to make sure that

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Speaker 7: the person in the White House is doing everything they

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Speaker 7: can to hold big corporation's feet to the fire. Understanding

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Speaker 7: prices go up and down, people use market power, but

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Speaker 7: not allowing bad behavior that keeps prices high. And I

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Speaker 7: will say that its Attorney General of California, Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 7: was very effective in taking on big oil, big pharma,

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Speaker 7: the big banks, on housing where they acted in an

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Speaker 7: improper or legal way to keep prices high.

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Speaker 6: Secondly, and I think this goes.

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Speaker 7: To what was just being reported, she is going to

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Speaker 7: have the most significant plan to end the shortage of

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Speaker 7: affordable housing that we've seen from any candidate. Number one,

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Speaker 7: she is going to ex span the efforts to increase

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Speaker 7: the supply of affordable housing, both rental and those first

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Speaker 7: starter homes. She's going to do the first ever tax

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Speaker 7: cut for industry if they build affordable starter homes and

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Speaker 7: if they sell them to first time home buyers. She's

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Speaker 7: going to have a challenge fund that's going to require

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Speaker 7: state local governments to do innovative things to increase supply. Secondly,

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Speaker 7: she's going to crack down on the price fixing that

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Speaker 7: we are seeing through algorithmic use of algorithms that are

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Speaker 7: illegally increasing prices of renters, and going to stop the

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Speaker 7: hoarding of single family homes by Big Wall Street private

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Speaker 7: equity firms and instead give incentives to sell those to

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Speaker 7: individual families and to get those back in the community.

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Speaker 7: And third, which I think is really important, is why

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Speaker 7: are those people that were being talked to worried about

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Speaker 7: owning a home. Most of them are working hard, getting

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Speaker 7: a paycheck and then paying a rent. They're paying a

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Speaker 7: rent that is often as high as a mortgage payment.

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Speaker 7: Why are they paying a landlord instead of building wealth

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Speaker 7: because they can't put together a down payment. She's going

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Speaker 7: to say, if you have paid your rent on time

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Speaker 7: for two years, people will be eligible for a twenty

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Speaker 7: five thousand dollars down payment assistance. This shows what kind

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Speaker 7: of a candidate she is. She's not just for helping

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Speaker 7: me get by, which is important.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Gene, I was kind of hoping to have a

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Speaker 3: conversation with you today. Okay, Well, okay, so God that

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Speaker 3: we just went through the whole thing here. I was

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Speaker 3: kind of hoping to have a little back and forth, Gene.

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Speaker 3: To what extent is Kamala Harris going to have to

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Speaker 3: draw a distinction between her approach and Joe Biden's or

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Speaker 3: is there none?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 7: I think she's She is building on a lot of things,

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Speaker 7: but I think housing is an area where you see

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Speaker 7: her going broader. She is doing more on the supply side.

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Speaker 7: This is a brand new tax cut that not only

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Speaker 7: encourages building affordable rentals, but building starter homes that's never

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Speaker 7: happened for that is an expansion the down payment assistance,

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Speaker 7: which was ten thousand dollars under Biden. She's going to

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Speaker 7: twenty five thousand dollars. You know, we know what the

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Speaker 7: cost of a house is. That is going to open

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Speaker 7: the door to home ownership to millions more people.

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Speaker 6: So those are ways she's expanding.

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Speaker 7: She's also proposing something in the child tax credit that

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Speaker 7: is new, which she's saying that in the first year

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Speaker 7: of life, let's give families actually six thousand dollars. So

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Speaker 7: many people don't have paid leave, and yet they have

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Speaker 7: to deal with the price of diapers, car seats, you know,

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Speaker 7: all of the things that make the first year of

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Speaker 7: life more expensive. So she's helping families deal with costs

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Speaker 7: in these areas. These are expansions that she's doing. And

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Speaker 7: I'll be honest, she is announcing more things that go

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Speaker 7: after price gouging and price fixing among corporate landlords and

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Speaker 7: in the food area than President Biden has. He's taken steps,

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Speaker 7: but I think you see that she is not really

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Speaker 7: swerving away, but she is putting her own stamp, and

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Speaker 7: often it means going further and a little tougher, particularly

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Speaker 7: on issues that affect the price. The prices that you

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Speaker 7: just heard in the previous segment are really up front

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Speaker 7: of mine for so many working families who are still

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Speaker 7: feeling a squeeze, even with low unemployment, even with record

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Speaker 7: job creation.

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Speaker 3: We saw the University of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Speaker 3: Index today gene up for the first time in five months,

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Speaker 3: and noteworthy, as we saw from the report, the rise

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Speaker 3: and sentiment partially driven by Joe Biden's decision to drop

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Speaker 3: out of the race. Is there an inherent optimism by

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Speaker 3: changing the top of the ticket that Kamala Harris brings

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Speaker 3: into this speech today.

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Speaker 6: I don't think there's any question that.

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Speaker 7: As much as President Biden and Vice President Harris have

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Speaker 7: an extraordinary record of accomplishment, particularly legislative accomplishment, nobody doubts

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Speaker 7: that about the Infrastructure Bill, the American Rescue Plan, the

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Speaker 7: Chips Bill.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you can see with your own eyes.

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Speaker 7: She has created a new energy, the excitement with her

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Speaker 7: and with Tim Waltz. You can feel it everywhere.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 7: You know, that's it's hard for me to put that

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Speaker 7: in economic words, but I think you know, going to

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Speaker 7: what you were saying earlier, what you are hearing from

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Speaker 7: her right now is going after the prices that affect families.

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Speaker 7: She's going to also talk later about the things we

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Speaker 7: could do legislatively in a Harris Waltz administration. I mean,

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Speaker 7: childcare costs are one of the main taxes on people

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Speaker 7: going to work, you know, helping people with family caregiving.

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Speaker 6: You know, these are things that are more legislative.

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Speaker 7: But right now, what she's doing is going right at

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Speaker 7: like a laser beam at.

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Speaker 6: What is really probably people now. And I will tell you.

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Speaker 7: That, I would say food prices and the price A

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Speaker 7: lot of them know they're still working, a lot of

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Speaker 7: them know they're now getting a raised, but they don't

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Speaker 7: want to give back some of that raise for higher

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Speaker 7: meat prices that might be due not to supply chain shortages,

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Speaker 7: but to companies trying.

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Speaker 6: To jack up their profit margins.

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Speaker 7: We just saw a study based on Census data earlier

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Speaker 7: in the year that suggested profit margins in many of

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Speaker 7: the grocery retail was at the highest in twenty years.

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Speaker 7: I think people want to see a president who's focused

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Speaker 7: on that, focused on rent and also focused on lowering

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Speaker 7: prescription drugs.

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Speaker 6: And one of the.

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Speaker 7: Things she called for is saying that thirty five dollars

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Speaker 7: an insulin, that two thousand dollars out of pocket limit.

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Speaker 7: That shouldn't just be seniors, that should be for all

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Speaker 7: American families.

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Speaker 3: Jeene Sperling, senior economic advisor to the Harris Walls campaign,

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Speaker 3: Thank you Gene for the time today we're going to

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Speaker 3: be hearing from Kamala Harris, although I guess Gene just

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Speaker 3: gave us a good sense of what we're going to hear.

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Speaker 3: Starting it to forty five Eastern time again, Raleigh, North Carolina.

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Speaker 3: We'll see when things actually begin, will bring you that address,

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Speaker 3: of course live. When she begins speaking, we're going to

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Speaker 3: talk to Gene Soroka, the executive director of the Port

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Speaker 3: of La coming up here. But first want to compare

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Speaker 3: notes with our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are

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Speaker 3: with us now Bloomberg Politics contributors. After quite a dive

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Speaker 3: there with Gene Sperling, Genie, is that the best way

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Speaker 3: to speak to people about the economy to talk them

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Speaker 3: off a cliff?

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Speaker 8: Yes, I mean what she really needs to do is

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Speaker 8: people are sour about the economy. I mean, of course,

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Speaker 8: we've had some good numbers in the last couple of

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Speaker 8: weeks on inflation and sentiment that you've been talking about,

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Speaker 8: but people are sour on it. So her major message

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Speaker 8: has got to be and I feel your pain. I

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Speaker 8: am understanding where where you've come from, because this is

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Speaker 8: my middle class background. As Jean Sperling was just talking about,

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Speaker 8: this is what I did as Attorney General, and this

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Speaker 8: is what I plan to do going forward. But she's

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Speaker 8: really got a show that she's prepared to take on

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Speaker 8: the costs that people are frustrated with. And so it's

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Speaker 8: a start. I wouldn't say it's an end, but certainly

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Speaker 8: it's a start.

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Speaker 3: Gene just spent some time with us here speaking on

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Speaker 3: behalf of the campaign. Rick is that the tone that

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Speaker 3: the Harris campaign should be taking. It was almost like

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Speaker 3: he was reading out of a phone book to us.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think you've got a good set of talking

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Speaker 9: points from the guy who wrote them, and I'm sure

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Speaker 9: there's a lot of authorship there. So I think, setting

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Speaker 9: aside the style, I think there's some red flags. I

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Speaker 9: mean one, she's at least laying out a relatively detailed

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Speaker 9: plan on what she thinks can help spur economic growth,

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Speaker 9: but also, you know, lower prices. The problem is that

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Speaker 9: the genesis of the inflation curve was government spending nothing.

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Speaker 9: In there about reigning in the growth of government spending

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Speaker 9: nothing in there about sensitivity to deficits. Nothing in there

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Speaker 9: about how you're going to balance a budget. So I mean,

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Speaker 9: at the end of the day, you can promise anything anybody,

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Speaker 9: but you know, how do you pay for it?

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Speaker 3: Well, let's put a finer point on this. With Rick

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Speaker 3: Davis and Jeanie Shanzo coming up here, we'll spend more

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Speaker 3: time with our panel in the news on the trail today,

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Speaker 3: coinciding with important data on the economy. It's straight ahead.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and.

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Speaker 2: Enroun Oo with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Good to have you with us here on the Friday

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Speaker 3: edition of Balance of Power. You made it to the

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Speaker 3: threshold of the weekend. A lot of people in Washington

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Speaker 3: are headed for the airport on the way to Chicago

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Speaker 3: because one week from right now, we'll be reviewing the

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Speaker 3: big nomination acceptance speech from the night earlier from Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: A lot's gonna happen between now and then. Right, we've

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Speaker 3: got Joe Biden starting things off on Monday night. Tim

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Speaker 3: Walls is Wednesday, the big one Thursday, and a lot

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Speaker 3: of fascinating conversations in between. Here on Bloomberg, we will

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Speaker 3: be on the ground with all of our political shows,

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Speaker 3: and by that I mean this one Balance of Power

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Speaker 3: twelve to two pm Eastern time, five to six pm

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Speaker 3: Eastern We're going to have it all for you, including

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Speaker 3: special coverage on Thursday night Whenkamala Harris accepts the nomination,

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Speaker 3: just like we did for the Republicans in Milwaukee. And

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Speaker 3: you don't just like show up for this kind of stuff.

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Speaker 3: You need an advanced team, and that has led by

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall. She's in Chicago right now and is

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Speaker 3: going to be reporting along with us next week. But

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Speaker 3: as the preparations get underway, this is a fascinating time

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Speaker 3: to be in Chicago, right. The barriers are going up,

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Speaker 3: cops are arriving from all over the country, and Tyler,

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Speaker 3: you tell us what you're seeing. How's it going in Chicago?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, Hey, Joe, you can actually see the United Center

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Speaker 10: right over my shoulder. Of course, that is where the

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Speaker 10: Democratic National Convention will kick off on Monday. We headed

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Speaker 10: over to the arena earlier today to start to see

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Speaker 10: some of those security precautions that you're mentioning going into place.

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Speaker 10: We saw one hundreds of law enforcement officers and Secret

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Speaker 10: Service agents doing a walkthrough of the arena and and

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Speaker 10: some of those big security barricades starting to go up

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Speaker 10: over the perimeters. Because Joe, the DNC says that they're

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Speaker 10: expecting fifty thousand people to flock to Chicago next week

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Speaker 10: to tend the convention. And for the Chicago Police Department's part,

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Speaker 10: they say that they're allocating twenty five hundred law enforcement

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Speaker 10: officers specifically to patrol the arena and its perimeter. And

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Speaker 10: this is important because one of the themes that we're

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Speaker 10: going to be watching for next week, as you've been

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Speaker 10: covering on Balance of Power, is the energy behind potential

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Speaker 10: protests that we're expecting to descend on the DNC. I

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Speaker 10: will point out that earlier this week, a federal judge

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Speaker 10: actually ruled against protesters, saying that they wanted a different

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Speaker 10: route right now. The route goes about two blocks away

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Speaker 10: from the United Center. They're arguing that that violates their

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Speaker 10: first Amendment rights because it doesn't get them close enough,

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Speaker 10: and the root's also not as long as they wanted. However,

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Speaker 10: that judge ruled that the current route is what prioritizes safety,

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Speaker 10: and that's what the city has put into place where

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Speaker 10: everybody involved, from protesters to delegates to all of us

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Speaker 10: on the ground. But Joe quickly, I just want to

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Speaker 10: point out that while we have been talking about this

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Speaker 10: expected enthusiasm when it does come to protesters, we're also

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Speaker 10: watching for enthusiasm for the Harris Walls ticket. I would

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Speaker 10: point you to our latest Bloomberg News Morning Console pulling,

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Speaker 10: particularly when it comes to young voters. I found that

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Speaker 10: in some key battleground states now fifty four percent of

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Speaker 10: young voters ages eighteen to thirty four say that they're

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Speaker 10: more likely to vote now that President Biden is out

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Speaker 10: of the race. It's interesting to think that just weeks ago,

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Speaker 10: we had thought that this was going to be his convention.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, fascinating stuff. This is a really interesting moment that

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Speaker 3: we're in Tyler, and I'm glad to hear the cicadas

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Speaker 3: have made it in time. I think they beat the

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Speaker 3: delegates to Chicago. We're learning a little bit more about

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Speaker 3: the lineup here Wednesday night is starting to come together.

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Speaker 3: It looks like Nancy Pelosi will speak two nights after

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Speaker 3: the man she helped to push out of the race

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Speaker 3: does the same. Tom Swazi is going to be speaking

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Speaker 3: as well, on the matter of immigration, of course, the

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Speaker 3: New York congressman who won back his old seat on

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Speaker 3: largely that issue of immigrant that we he handled that

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Speaker 3: in New York following the George Santos saga. Tyler, what's

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Speaker 3: the rest of the week looking like? What are the

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Speaker 3: highlights here on the four days that we'll be covered.

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Speaker 10: Right, So, besides the names that you mentioned, and that

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Speaker 10: we know that President Biden's going to be headlining on

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Speaker 10: Monday night, we know that the Clintons are also going

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Speaker 10: to speak as well as former President Barack Obama. But Joe,

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Speaker 10: I want to point out that while we are watching

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Speaker 10: for who will be here at the DNC, I'm also

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Speaker 10: watching for who isn't going to be here. We have

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Speaker 10: a new reporting now that Senator Shared Brown and also

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Speaker 10: Senator John Tester, two key senators in some critical critical

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Speaker 10: Senate races in Ohio and Montana, respectively, say that they

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Speaker 10: will not be here. There's also a reporting coming out

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Speaker 10: that Senator Jackie Rosen, a Democrat in Nevada, will also

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Speaker 10: not attend. I know that our team's working to confirm that.

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Speaker 10: So it's really interesting to watch how some of these

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Speaker 10: vulnerable Democrats are opting not to come to the DNC,

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Speaker 10: saying instead that they are needed back home to campaign.

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Speaker 10: Because we are really in the thick of it as

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Speaker 10: we count down to November.

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Speaker 2: We sure are.

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Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall, great reporting with the elgoing by behind her,

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Speaker 3: the cicadas singing in the tree is a true vision

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Speaker 3: of Chicago.

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Speaker 2: Tyler.

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Speaker 3: Thank you. We'll meet you there this weekend. And again,

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Speaker 3: we have a lot of special coverage planned throughout next week,

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Speaker 3: and Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are going to be

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Speaker 3: a major part of it. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors

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Speaker 3: back with us here on our signature panel. Before we

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Speaker 3: get to Kamala Harris's economic plan, Genie, that idea that

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Speaker 3: some members feel a need to boycott. This is going

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Speaker 3: to happen both parties, right every four years for some

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Speaker 3: frontliners who don't want to necessarily be associated with the incumbent.

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Speaker 3: But in this case, it's not really the incumbent. What's

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Speaker 3: up with the protest?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, it is fascinating to hear that, and

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Speaker 8: of course Jackie Rosen is the one that surprises me.

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Speaker 8: But I think it's a reflection of the fact how

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Speaker 8: vulnerable Brown and Tester are and Jackie Rosen and how

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Speaker 8: much they realize that they do not want to be

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Speaker 8: associated with the DNC at this point in these dates

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Speaker 8: where the DNC, particularly on its economic record, is not

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Speaker 8: particularly popular. Even though with the switch to Kamala Harris

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Speaker 8: it has become more popular. You could say, it still

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Speaker 8: isn't enough to get these folks there. They're just not

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Speaker 8: willing to take a chance. But just fascinating that they

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Speaker 8: are going to be boycotting, or let's say they're going

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Speaker 8: to be spending their time in their states where they're needed.

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Speaker 3: Well, I guess that's right, Rick, You've dealt with this,

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Speaker 3: You've actually run a convention. Is that just part of

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00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 3: the game. You know that they're going to be certain

439
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: members of the conference who can't be associated with the

440
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 3: program you're putting together, and that's okay with you because

441
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 3: you also want them to win.

442
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 9: Yeah, for sure. Look, I mean, if you're not on

443
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 9: the podium during the course of the week, and you're

444
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 9: a member of Congress or Senate or whatnot, and you've

445
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 9: got a race to run, you really got to wonder

446
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,119
Speaker 9: what am I going to do for four days. You

447
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 9: can't fund raise there because it's in competition with the ticket.

448
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 9: You can come to Bloomberg and talk to us. We'll

449
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 9: take you. But outside of that, you know, you're twidling

450
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 9: your thumbs and you know, saying hi to people and

451
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 9: drinking and eating too much. So the reality is there's

452
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 9: a lot of other things to do in the Democratic

453
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 9: Party and Republican Party and going to their conventions. And

454
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 9: by the way, no one's ever going to say, gee,

455
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 9: we missed you. There's plenty to keep people busy doing, so.

456
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 3: Er really much to do about nothing. M hmm. I

457
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: want to get into the plan here, because we're going

458
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 3: to not only get a speech today on the economy

459
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 3: by Kamala Harris, but it's going to resonate next week.

460
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: It will surely be part of her acceptance speech on

461
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: Thursday night, we'll hear her surrogates putting this forward. Jeanie

462
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: Rick took an initial swing at some of these ideas.

463
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: We've got three big buckets. As I mentioned, we're going

464
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 3: to hear about today tax credits, and that's specifically the

465
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 3: child tax credit, of course, but some other new credit

466
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 3: for child as low wage workers, increasing subsidies for those

467
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: who purchase insurance on federal health exchanges. Then you've got

468
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 3: homeowner assistants incentives here also a plan to boost home construction,

469
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 3: as we learned today that construction fell to the lowest

470
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 3: level since May of twenty twenty. That's where the market

471
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 3: is stuck in the mud. And then price controls the

472
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 3: matter of inflation, grocery prices, the ban as she will

473
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 3: propose on price gouging. Rick asked a pretty important question

474
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 3: though here, Jennie, where is the language, Where is the

475
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 3: proposal to cut government spending?

476
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 8: I think what we will hear and I don't know

477
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 8: if we'll hear it today on this point, but certainly

478
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 8: going forward, is that she would like to raise taxes

479
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 8: on the ultra wealthy. They also would like to ensure

480
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 8: that the IRS is collecting taxes, and that is something

481
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 8: that Biden administration put forward that Republicans balked up. So

482
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 8: I think they are going to have information on how

483
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 8: they will pay for this. But you know, if you

484
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 8: look across Democrats and Republicans, quite frankly, pay for is

485
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 8: on any of this is a huge shortcoming. Okay, yesterday

486
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 8: with Donald Trump talking, he's talking about lowering taxes, but

487
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 8: he never talks about how he is going to pay

488
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 8: for what is coming down the pike. And one thing

489
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 8: I think that we can all agree on is that

490
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 8: even if Donald Trump wins, even if Kamala Harris wins,

491
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 8: we are going to see a growth in federal spending

492
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 8: that is almost certain, and nobody is going to say

493
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 8: how to pay for it in any way that makes

494
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 8: economists feel good about these plans. So I think it's

495
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 8: a deficit on both sides. I do think she'll talk

496
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 8: about raising taxes on the wealthy, but it's not going

497
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 8: to cover the spending that they're talking about for sure,

498
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 8: and it's a problem.

499
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: So pay fors, I guess wouldn't be necessarily part of

500
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: an economic policy address. Rick, does she need to identify

501
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 3: at some point, if not today, how indeed would pay

502
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 3: for these or nobody cares about this anymore. We'll get

503
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 3: religion on debt and deficits some other time.

504
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, And presidential campaigns in the past you had to

505
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 9: show your pay for us, right, I mean, like the

506
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,239
Speaker 9: press would kill you if you said, oh, I'm going

507
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 9: to cut taxes for middle class and you know, but

508
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 9: you didn't say how you're going to actually fill that

509
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 9: budget gap or you know, I need to reduce spending

510
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 9: in some way. Where's it going to come out of?

511
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 2: Right?

512
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 9: What programs are going to get cut?

513
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, we.

514
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 9: Add to the fabric of overspending because we don't hold

515
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 9: these politicians feet to the fire. I mean both Trump

516
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 9: and Harrison and Frankly Biden too. I mean like these

517
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 9: are these are back to back administrations that spent over

518
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 9: six to seven to eight trillion dollars a year, massive

519
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 9: increases in spending. We are now in the post COVID era.

520
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 9: It's time to pay back the dividend. And nothing will

521
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 9: bring inflation down, nothing will squeeze the prices for consumers

522
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 9: more than if the government tightens their belt first. And

523
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 9: so before we start going after corporations, before we start

524
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 9: giving away brebs. You know, twenty five thousand dollars anybody

525
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 9: wants to buy a house, where's that coming from?

526
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 4: Is that my twenty five thousand dollars?

527
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 6: A taxpayer?

528
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 3: I'd like to know, right, But that's no different than

529
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 3: making the Trump tax cuts permanent.

530
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 4: Right.

531
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 3: Nobody seems to care on either campaign how to pay

532
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 3: for any of these.

533
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 9: Things, same exact thing. Neither one of these candidates are

534
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 9: asked the question after their press conference, where's the money

535
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 9: coming from?

536
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 3: My Twitter notifications ought to be roughly equally balanced, I

537
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: think today, Genie, I know I'm striking it right when

538
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: I get hate from both sides of the aisle here,

539
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 3: is it not deserved this criticism for both candidates.

540
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,239
Speaker 8: It absolutely is. And you know, and by the way,

541
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 8: Joe Matthew, nobody could hate you, So I reject that proposition,

542
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 8: but you know, it's got to know me. Yet it's

543
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 8: absolutely true that this is both science and the reality

544
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 8: is it's the American voter, all of us who are

545
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 8: to blame for this, because these politicians are doing what

546
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 8: they think will get us to support them. And it

547
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 8: is not a popular thing to stand up and say,

548
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 8: we have Social Security is going to be insolvent, so

549
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 8: we're going to take that on. So, you know, we

550
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 8: have to.

551
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 3: Look at our wish I had a chance to ask

552
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 3: jean Spurling about it, Jeanie Shanz no, Rick Davis, Thank you,

553
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 3: great panel. The speech, by the way a little over

554
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 3: an hour away, Kamala Harris, you'll hear it live right

555
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg CV and Radio.

556
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

557
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emocarplay.

558
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 2: And Thenroudoto with the Bloomberg Business App.

559
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

560
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

561
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Friday edition Indeed of Balance of Power.

562
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 3: You're almost there the threshold of the weekend, with some

563
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 3: important economic data to digest before you get on that

564
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 3: plane to Chicago. I'll meet you there. But housing is

565
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: in the air today, and so is consumer sentiment, Rick

566
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 3: Davis's favorite political poll. They both tell a slightly different

567
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: story here. Housing is just as stubborn as can be,

568
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 3: with construction falling to the lowest level since May of

569
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Remember what you were doing in May of

570
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Not a good time for the housing market.

571
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: And Kamala Harris's going to be talking about ways to

572
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 3: potentially unlock some opportunity there when she speaks later today.

573
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 3: But this is a very difficult scenario we're looking at

574
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 3: ahead of potential interest rate cuts next month. The other,

575
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: as I mentioned, though, a bit rosier. Consumer sentiment rising

576
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 3: for the first time in five months, and it's partly

577
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 3: due to the fact, as researchers found that Joe Biden

578
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: dropped out of the presidential race and consumers are feeling

579
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: a little more optimistic about things. Just two weeks after

580
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 3: we were hearing the R word again in Washington and

581
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: on Wall The markets have done a wild round trip

582
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 3: since then, and we wanted to compare notes with our

583
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 3: friend David Weston to get a sense of just where

584
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 3: we are. Of course, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week,

585
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 3: he is with us live at World Headquarters in New York.

586
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 3: David remarkable here to see consumer sentiment jumping with this

587
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: political evolution happening as the backdrop. We saw immediate changes

588
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 3: in moods when Joe Biden decided to drop out of

589
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 3: the race.

590
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 11: How about it, Well, how about it, Joe? Exactly right.

591
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 11: I mean, the markets are all breathing a very big

592
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 11: sigh of relief. It had kind of topps each every

593
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 11: time you have to wonder whether the Kamala Harris campaign

594
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 11: isn't as well because, as you say, it wasn't that

595
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 11: long ago all the banks were taking back out there

596
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 11: recession estimates, right and revising you again. We were talking

597
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 11: about it again. Yeah, but right now it doesn't look

598
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 11: like it's going that way, which they've got to be

599
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 11: pretty happy about. And on the housing front, it did

600
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 11: strike me. Do we have Kamala Harris trying to outdo

601
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 11: Oprah Winfrey instead of you got a car, you get

602
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 11: a hard house. Anybody you got a house, you get

603
00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 11: a house, you get a house.

604
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 3: It's pretty reach under your seat, David, Yeah, exactly.

605
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 11: It's that time of the season, isn't it that we've

606
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 11: seen in elections, Joe, where basically the candidates, both for

607
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 11: both sides are just tell us, boy, we're gonna have

608
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 11: everything with them. You know, chicken in every pot. Wasn't

609
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 11: that what they used to say?

610
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 3: Yes, sure, now I think it's a pot in every

611
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 3: chicken depending on the state you're talking about. So to

612
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 3: your point, she's going to offer as much as twenty

613
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars for first time home buyers. More than

614
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 3: a million first time home buyers with a two year

615
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: history of on time rent payments would be eligible. First,

616
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: what they're calling down payment support. But how do you

617
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: pay for that?

618
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 11: Well, that's the big question. Although I must say, Joe,

619
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 11: I haven't heard either parties who particularly concerned about how

620
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 11: to pay for anything lately, right, I mean, we can

621
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 11: do almost anything to borrow more money, even as the

622
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 11: economists tell us at some point there's gonna be a

623
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 11: piper to pay here. But thus far nobody seems too

624
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 11: concerned about it. And it'll be curious, actually, I'll be

625
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 11: curious after the election to see whether there are economic

626
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 11: strategists and polyp sey makers on one side to the other,

627
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 11: whoever gets to be president, who actually starts to deal

628
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 11: with some of this stuff, and whether the bond market

629
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 11: makes them deal with some of it, which is entirely possible.

630
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: You're right. Look, these two campaigns have a lot in

631
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 3: common when it comes to not showing how to pay

632
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 3: for things you consider extending or making permanent. The Trump

633
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 3: tax cuts, for instance, never mind no tips on or

634
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: taxes on tips. Miami Guinness would tell you that costs

635
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 3: two hundred billion dollars right off the top there, But

636
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 3: nobody wants to talk about numbers and no.

637
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 11: Tax, no text on social Security, and by the way,

638
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 11: let's up the child tax credit to five thousand dollars.

639
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 11: It all sounds very good. At the same time, we

640
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 11: did talk to an economis or prominent economists. He's Jan Hatiis.

641
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 11: He's the chief econdoms for Globin Sax Today for Wall

642
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 11: Street Week, and we asked him about that chance of

643
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 11: recession and he tied it right back. Actually, the uncertainty

644
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 11: coming out of the presidential elections. This is part of

645
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 11: why he said he has a somewhat, not highly, but

646
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 11: a somewhat elevated chance of recession because of that election.

647
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 12: The way I think about it is that fifteen percent

648
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 12: is the long term average. We've had one recession every

649
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 12: seven years in the post war period, and you know,

650
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 12: conceivably there can be points in the business cycle where

651
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 12: you might want to say the twelve month forward probability

652
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 12: is less than fifteen percent, because inflation has been beaten

653
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 12: and aggurate demands still seems to be growing at a

654
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,399
Speaker 12: decent pace, the Fed is lowering interest rates. I'd be reluctant, though,

655
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 12: given the political uncertainty and the uncertainty around economic policy,

656
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,439
Speaker 12: to go significantly below fifteen percent, even if everything else

657
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 12: sort of looks on track, just because there are significant

658
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 12: uncertainties around tariff policy, around tax policy, and just around

659
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 12: you know a number of political issues, geopolitical issues that

660
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 12: are also of course an important factor and will be

661
00:34:56,200 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 12: affected by, you know, what a new administration does.

662
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 11: So, Joe, they have jan Hatziis from Globin's Hacks, And

663
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 11: it turns out that we up here in New York

664
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 11: are paying attention to what you're doing down there in Washington.

665
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,280
Speaker 11: There's a certain amount of uncertainty around things like trade

666
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 11: balls and geopolitics. So it does make a difference to

667
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 11: Wall Street after.

668
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: All, paying attention with great trepidation. Look, he made big news, David.

669
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 3: This is an important conversation when he increased recession ads

670
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: to twenty five percent from fifteen. That was a scary

671
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 3: moment two weeks ago. We've basically round tripped since then.

672
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 3: So Wall Street doesn't seem to be concerned about it.

673
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 3: What is the market telling us.

674
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 11: Well, you know how Wall Street works. They were concerned.

675
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 11: They got over it right quick, and even that Monday,

676
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,959
Speaker 11: we could go Monday when everybody was so concerned about

677
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 11: an emergency FED rate cut. You remember there were people

678
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 11: putting pretty good odds of that the thing that people,

679
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 11: I think we're not folcus on that now they do

680
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 11: talk about is the markets were functioning just fine. They

681
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 11: weren't freezing up, and in fact, the bond market was

682
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 11: doing just fine, and so it was it was a

683
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 11: puzzle to me why the FED would step in in

684
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 11: that circumstance. As far as I know, part of the

685
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 11: mandate for the FED is not to make sure I

686
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 11: don't lose money on a stock that I paid too

687
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 11: much for. You know, it seemed like whilst she was saying, boy,

688
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 11: you should bare me out, Jerome Poll, I paid too

689
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 11: much for the stock. I'm like, I might lose some

690
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:15,760
Speaker 11: money here. That's not very fun.

691
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: Doesn't exactly work that way, but it certainly doesn't look

692
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 3: like a recession in the cards when you look at

693
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 3: this market. Some of the data might argue with that,

694
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 3: but that's also in part why we have David Weston.

695
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 3: Aren't you in the perfect spot right now? Truly at

696
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 3: the intersection of politics and the economy, which is why

697
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Wall Street Week is so important and such a

698
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: great part of the conversation here every day. David, it's

699
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: good to see you. We'll look forward to the program

700
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 3: six pm Eastern time, Wall Street Time here on Bloomberg

701
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,240
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. David'll see you back here next week.

702
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 3: What we'll have to talk about then with the convention

703
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 3: in our rearview mirror. But we want to add another

704
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 3: voice on the economy here because this is important what's

705
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 3: going on right now, and we're about an hour away

706
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris rolling out her economic policy proposals. Lindsay

707
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 3: Owens is with us, the executive director of Groundwork Collaborative,

708
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 3: former senior economic advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lindsay has

709
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 3: been calling for interest rate cuts by the way since

710
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 3: long before July, and she is with us now as

711
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 3: we look ahead to September, Lindsay, there's a concern that

712
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: the Fed has waited too long. I don't know what

713
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: difference twenty five basis points might have made. But when

714
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 3: you look at that housing report today, construction following to falling,

715
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 3: I should say, to its lowest level since May of

716
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. Are we to believe that Kamala Harris can

717
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 3: unfreeze this market with the plan she is going to

718
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 3: outline today.

719
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 13: Yeah, So we need a few things working in our

720
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 13: favor here. First, we absolutely have to see the Federal

721
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 13: Reserve take decisive action in September. Fifty basis points, maybe

722
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 13: seventy five is actually what the doctor ordered at this

723
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 13: point given where the housing market is. But second, we

724
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 13: absolutely are going to need to bring incentives online for

725
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 13: new construction, and that's exactly what the Vice President is

726
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 13: going to lay out this afternoon and her economic which

727
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 13: includes at least three million new units. By the way,

728
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 13: I am not someone who thinks this is some pie

729
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 13: in the sky wish list. As you correctly mentioned, next year,

730
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 13: we see key provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and

731
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 13: Jobs Act expiring, which means there's going to be a

732
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,760
Speaker 13: live legislative tax fight next year. The door is open,

733
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 13: there's a moving vehicle. Congress is going to act on

734
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 13: the tax code, and what better time to start providing

735
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 13: real incentives in the tax code for new construction. So

736
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 13: I think this is actually a very feasible, very achievable

737
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 13: agenda that the Vice President is planning to lay out

738
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 13: later today, and I think it could happen as early

739
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 13: as next year.

740
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 2: Wow.

741
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,959
Speaker 3: Fascinating. We're going to hear about a lot of things

742
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris today, not just housing. Grocery prices, but

743
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: also tax credits, and this is an area of a

744
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 3: bit of overlap between these two campaigns. Lindsay, what do

745
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: you make of a world in which JD. Vance is

746
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 3: offering a more generous child tax credit than Kamala Harris.

747
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 13: Look, I think the child tax credit has grown in

748
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 13: popularity over the last decade that I've been in Washington

749
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 13: and has started to have some bipartisan consensus in support

750
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,720
Speaker 13: of it. Of course, it was Joe Biden, a Democratic president,

751
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,240
Speaker 13: who pursued the largest increase in the child tax credit,

752
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 13: and I would expect that the Vice president will follow suit,

753
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 13: and her campaign has released a few additions and enhancements

754
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 13: to the child tax credit that she'll be talking about

755
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 13: later today. But both parties, I think understand that child

756
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 13: poverty is a policy choice, one that we can easily solve,

757
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 13: and by the way, we have the money to solve this.

758
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 13: I don't know if you remember, but the Biden Harris

759
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 13: budget lays out five trillion dollars in taxes on the

760
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 13: wealthy and corporations. That is plenty of pay fors, plenty

761
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 13: of money to fund a sizable and significant increase in

762
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 13: the child tax credit. Getting cash in family's hands, getting

763
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 13: families back onto main street shopping, buying things they need,

764
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 13: groceries and the rest.

765
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 3: How do you pay for down payment support of twenty

766
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 3: five thousand dollars for one million first time home buyers?

767
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, look, we've got five trillion in taxes

768
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 13: on the wealthy and corporations and the Biden Harris budget,

769
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 13: and that's sort of a relative consensus position.

770
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:31,959
Speaker 2: Right.

771
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 13: We can move up the corporate tax rate, which Donald

772
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 13: Trump lowered to twenty one percent. There are Democrats who

773
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 13: want to see it at twenty five percent. They're Democrats

774
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 13: who want to see it at twenty eight percent, They're

775
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 13: Democrats who want to see it at thirty five percent.

776
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 13: So we've got a lot of room to run on

777
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 13: the corporate tax rate. We can bring individual rates back

778
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 13: to where they were in twenty seventeen before Donald Trump

779
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 13: lowered them. So I think there's actually a huge room

780
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 13: to run here on P fours. I'm not worried about

781
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 13: it at all.

782
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 3: Well, it also comes with a proposal to create a

783
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:14,439
Speaker 3: federal ban on price gouging. Does this agenda specifically the

784
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 3: federal ban on price gouging, which would of course require

785
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 3: congressional approval. Does this entire agenda ride on a Democratic

786
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: SUITEP in the House and Senate.

787
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's a great question. As I mentioned, I do

788
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 13: think the tax pieces are very achievable in most scenarios,

789
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 13: given that Republicans in Congress are going to want to

790
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 13: see tax cuts extended for the middle class, and so

791
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 13: I think that provides a lot of running room to

792
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 13: get quite a bit done on tax next year, the

793
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 13: child tax credit, expanded tax incentives for home buyers and

794
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 13: for development as well. I think, you know, a federal

795
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 13: ban on price gouging probably would require a trifecta. However,

796
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 13: remember there are pieces of price fixing that can be

797
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 13: taken on.

798
00:41:58,440 --> 00:41:58,720
Speaker 2: Now.

799
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 13: We've seen price and sugar and beef and chicken and eggs,

800
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 13: and the current Department of Justice is pursuing some of

801
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 13: these aggressively. They're also pursuing a price fixing case in

802
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 13: the housing market. We've had a company, real Page, an

803
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:19,240
Speaker 13: algorithmic price fixing software platform helping landlords price fix rents

804
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 13: at large buildings, multifamily buildings across the country. So there's

805
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 13: a lot the Department can do on enforcement and on

806
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 13: regulatory authority. Already in the food and agricultural space. I'd

807
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 13: love to see the federal price gouging band move in

808
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 13: a legislative trifecta as well.

809
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 2: Well.

810
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: That would be quite an accomplishment, Lindsay, I've got less

811
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: than a minute left here. I don't know if you

812
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:46,720
Speaker 3: saw Donald Trump outdoors with all the groceries yesterday had cereal, milk, eggs,

813
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 3: and bacon sausage all out there in the sun. Will

814
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 3: his plan lower grocery prices?

815
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:53,919
Speaker 11: Yeah?

816
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 13: I mean, look, we've seen the economic analysis of the

817
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 13: Trump Plan and of Project twenty twenty five, which is

818
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 13: really the full Republican agenda headed into a Trump presidency

819
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 13: if that's where we land in November, and I think

820
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 13: the scoring on this is pretty clear that we would

821
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 13: see across the board price increases due to a number

822
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 13: of his policies, including the large tire of proposals.

823
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 3: Well, before I get all the tweets, Donald Trump has

824
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 3: separated himself from Trump Project twenty twenty five. That's a

825
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 3: Heritage Foundation thing, Lindsay Owens. Great to see you, and

826
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: I know there are lots of former Trump administration officials there.

827
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 3: Executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative. Great to have you back, Lindsay,

828
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 3: and thank you for being part of our conversation today

829
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 3: in Washington. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

830
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

831
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

832
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

833
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.