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Speaker 1: And welcome in. Lakig is live. It's Tuesday, that October eighteenth.

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Speaker 1: The over Lord twenty twenty two brought you proudly in

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Speaker 1: as always by Academy Sports and Outdoors. I see it,

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Speaker 1: you see it does the JP poles. We got a

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Speaker 1: brand new JP pole tonight. We were jam packed high

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Speaker 1: at top a suddenly frosty downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Hey, what's

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Speaker 1: going on with Alabama? I don't mean losing the game.

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Speaker 1: We predicted them to lose the game. What is going

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Speaker 1: on with Alabama? That's what they're asking from mobile to

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Speaker 1: muscle shoals today and everywhere in between. I got some

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Speaker 1: thoughts for you. I'll present them momentarily. It is Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: so we've got our full week eight previews and predictions

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Speaker 1: to get too big games. That three thirty eastern window

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Speaker 1: this Saturday is jam packed. We're going to be at UCLA, Oregon.

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Speaker 1: That's a three thirty eastern I'm twelve thirty local kickoff.

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Speaker 1: There are tons of big games, so we're gonna break

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Speaker 1: them all down. As I said, brand new JP poll tonight.

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Speaker 1: We got several added best bets. We finally got some

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Speaker 1: line movement to go our way. Thought it was gonna

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Speaker 1: happen yesterday, it finally happened today, so check it out.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the show, Zionsville, Indiana is watching

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Speaker 1: tonight Chattanooga, Tennessee, Cedar Rappids Iowa Winter Park, Florida, And

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Speaker 1: just moments ago, Director Colin and I were talking. I

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Speaker 1: don't know where Jesse was, probably eating his sneaky tazikis

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Speaker 1: that he ordered a little while ago, and Director Colin

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Speaker 1: and I have come to a mathematical conclusion we can

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Speaker 1: get to one hundred and fifty thousand subs by twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three. And so there's the challenge. You want to

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Speaker 1: keep this show free, not that we're in immediate danger

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Speaker 1: of having to pay for it or anything, but you

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Speaker 1: want to keep things free. You want to keep things

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Speaker 1: humming along like we're able to have them hume along

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Speaker 1: right here. All you have to do is subscribe. That's it,

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Speaker 1: because I got news for you, little secret, little trick

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Speaker 1: of the trade. Management's in town right now and they're very,

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Speaker 1: very impressed by that sort of thing. So I don't

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Speaker 1: want to tell you how to live your life, except

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Speaker 1: this one time. Just subscribe to the channel and like

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Speaker 1: the videos. That's it. It's free. I had a guy

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Speaker 1: the other day tell me he hadn't subscribed yet because

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Speaker 1: he did not think that there was anything you could

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Speaker 1: subscribe to in life that didn't cost money. He's kind

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Speaker 1: of right, except for this. It costs no money. Nothing

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Speaker 1: else happens. There is no string attached. So the other

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Speaker 1: thing I need from you as we get into tonight's

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Speaker 1: show is what do you want if you reach that?

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Speaker 1: Because I've already given you one reward, well several of them,

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Speaker 1: and so we gotta we got to get there by

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Speaker 1: January first, preferably sooner there, and we got to come

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Speaker 1: up with a reward. So I'm gonna leave that to you.

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Speaker 1: We got some time to decide amongst ourselves. There you go.

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Speaker 1: There is the challenge. We normally just start with previews

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday night. I gotta go somewhere else tonight. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna put out a question here. It's kind of rhetorical.

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Speaker 1: There could be several answers. Colin, here's your endpoint. What

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Speaker 1: is happening with Alabama? Most recently? You probably saw them

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Speaker 1: lose to Tennessee. That was not a shock around here.

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Speaker 1: We predicted them to lose, lose. I told you going

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Speaker 1: into the game, I thought Bama was going to lose.

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Speaker 1: Then I thought that they were going to regroup, and

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Speaker 1: I thought that they would eventually end up winning the

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Speaker 1: SEC championship, and all of that's obviously still on the table.

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Speaker 1: But I've got some sound. We're gonna wait a few

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Speaker 1: minutes to play it, but I think most Alabama fans

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Speaker 1: have heard it. I don't know if the rest of

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Speaker 1: the country has heard it. It is stunning to me

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Speaker 1: some of the stuff that's being said, not by fans,

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Speaker 1: I mean the head coach at Alabama and some players

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Speaker 1: on that team about last week's game. So we'll get

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Speaker 1: to that in a second. Here's what I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to traffick in tonight. I'm not going to do the

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Speaker 1: whole cast an indictment on a team or a program

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Speaker 1: based on one game. I'm not doing the Bama's Done thing.

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Speaker 1: I'm not doing that only because I need to remind

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Speaker 1: you many of you, hundreds of thousands of people who

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Speaker 1: now watch or listen to this show are kind of new,

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Speaker 1: so you don't know some of the analogies I've used

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Speaker 1: in the past. One of the classics paper pop worthy

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Speaker 1: metaphors from me while back in the day was you

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Speaker 1: need to respond at the speed of honey, not at

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Speaker 1: the speed of water. And that's the same way you

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Speaker 1: need to really cast judgment on these programs. You cannot

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Speaker 1: tell over the span of one game what the fate

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Speaker 1: of a program is going to be, and the trajectory

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Speaker 1: of a program is. It just doesn't work that way.

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Speaker 1: Mima always said, you turn that plate sideways. Look at

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Speaker 1: how fast the drop of water falls off. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to be the drop of water. That just makes

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Speaker 1: you look like an idiot down the road. You want

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Speaker 1: to be the drop of honey. It's still headed south,

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Speaker 1: it's just headed south a lot slower. So in other words,

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Speaker 1: if you see several results piled on top of each

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Speaker 1: other that indicate the same thing, it's like this huge, bright,

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Speaker 1: blinking red caution light, then you can start to be concerned,

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Speaker 1: not one game. So I'm not in that camp. I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of people are, and I know that

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Speaker 1: it gets a lot of attention, and we could traffic

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Speaker 1: in that. You haven't seen clickbait until you see me

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Speaker 1: go clickbait. I could go clickbait on this. We're not

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Speaker 1: doing that, but what I am going to do is

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Speaker 1: be pretty fair about this. And so I just want

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Speaker 1: to ask you, guys. You know, if if let's say

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Speaker 1: the worst were happening at Alabama. Okay, so let's just

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Speaker 1: entertain the madness out there for a couple of seconds.

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Speaker 1: If the absolute worst were happening, let's just say everything

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Speaker 1: about that program had been lost. I'm talking about one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent of the mojo. It would kind of be

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Speaker 1: equivalent to what a commercial airliner at thirty five thousand

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Speaker 1: feet would do going about five hundred and fifty miles

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Speaker 1: an hour ground speed if both engines failed. What happens

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Speaker 1: to a plane at thirty five k if both engines failed?

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Speaker 1: Does it just go? Does it fall straight down to

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Speaker 1: the ground. Of course it doesn't, because the speed it's

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Speaker 1: built up and the altitude it's built up determines that

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Speaker 1: it's going to glide for a long time. And that's

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Speaker 1: even if everything has failed the program at Bama and

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Speaker 1: some of these major programs. If this were happening to

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Speaker 1: Ryan Day, if this were happening to Dabbo, even if

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Speaker 1: everything went wrong, guys, it would take a while for

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Speaker 1: him to come crashing back to Earth because that's the

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Speaker 1: value in the equity you've built to get to that point.

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Speaker 1: So imagine if only twenty percent of the program is faulty,

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Speaker 1: how hard it is to spot the difference week to week,

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Speaker 1: game to game. So anyone who's watching Tennessee run all

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Speaker 1: over Bama ugly though it may have been, and thinking

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Speaker 1: to themselves, that's it. Go ahead, get the gravestone ready,

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Speaker 1: We're not doing that, Okay, I think think anyone who's

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Speaker 1: ever trafficked in that, as long as Nick sabans there

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Speaker 1: has learned their lesson, Please don't do that again. But

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Speaker 1: they played a way against Tennessee the other night. That's

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Speaker 1: not the way they have to play. They tried a way.

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Speaker 1: It's failed spectacularly. They tried a way. I think it's

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Speaker 1: reasonable for us to look at Alabama and suspect there'll

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Speaker 1: probably be some adjustments made. There may even be some

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Speaker 1: personnel changes made. I'm not even so much interested in

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Speaker 1: that tonight. You're looking at their schedule right now. They

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Speaker 1: play Mississippi State this Saturday. They're gonna drag Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: We'll predict the game Thursday. They will drag Mississippi State Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Then they're going to go to LSU in two weeks

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Speaker 1: or three weeks. I guess they'll go to Ole Miss,

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Speaker 1: another back to back road stretch there our I guess

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Speaker 1: it's the first one for them, and then they'll have

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Speaker 1: Austin p and Auburn. Look, we can talk about the

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Speaker 1: individual games. We can talk about who should be starting

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Speaker 1: and who should and we could talk about who played

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Speaker 1: up to and not up to the standard. We could

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Speaker 1: do all that. Frankly, we did it the other night,

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Speaker 1: and double frankly, I think Tim Wats has got a

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Speaker 1: healthy dose of it over on his BAMA online dot

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Speaker 1: com message board right now. So if you want to

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Speaker 1: dive into that murky murky Crimson water, there's plenty of

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Speaker 1: it to go around. I've delved into some of it

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Speaker 1: myself over there. I've got thoughts just like everyone else.

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Speaker 1: That's not even what I want to talk to you

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Speaker 1: about tonight, because truthfully, I think they've got smart enough

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Speaker 1: people in the building to get that sort of thing fixed,

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Speaker 1: or at least fixed to the degree that they need

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Speaker 1: to fix it to win the SEC, to win a

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Speaker 1: national championship. Because make no mistake, even as ugly as

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Speaker 1: Saturday was, this team can still win the national championship.

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Speaker 1: That's not what caught my ear. It wasn't Saturday. We

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Speaker 1: were on the field Saturday. That was jarring. But that's

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Speaker 1: not what's resonating with me. I got two pieces of

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Speaker 1: audio I want you to listen to. The first one

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Speaker 1: is yesterday in Tuscaloosa. It's the usual Monday media availability,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to play you too of them. The

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Speaker 1: first one is Alabama head coach Nick Saban on what

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Speaker 1: he thought may have contributed to Saturday's breakdown. Take a listen.

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Speaker 2: You know you want to have great energy and you

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Speaker 2: want to be loose. I thought we were tight, especially

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Speaker 2: starting a game. I mean coming out of the locker room.

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Speaker 2: Our players always chant They weren't chanting. I said, why

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Speaker 2: don't you guys chanting? What's up with that?

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Speaker 1: No channing? No channing? There I was in their tunnel.

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Speaker 1: I can confirm that no channing. Does that mean anything necessarily? No? No.

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Speaker 1: In fact, if you weren't around that team for a

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Speaker 1: long time, you wouldn't even know the difference. I've been

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Speaker 1: around Bama for quite a while. I was around those

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Speaker 1: teams in the early to mid two thousands or twenty

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Speaker 1: teens and I've been around this one. Yeah, I've noticed.

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Speaker 1: I've noticed that difference. Again, maybe each team has its

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Speaker 1: own unique DNA and whatnot, but it has been noticeable.

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Speaker 1: I'm not the only one who's picked up on it. Now,

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Speaker 1: I want you to listen to Will Anderson, same place yesterday,

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Speaker 1: talking about the same thing. Go you remember by at

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Speaker 1: that moment.

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Speaker 3: Do you feel it was tight? Yeah, most definitely. I

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Speaker 3: think we probably just had a lot of anxiety. You know,

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Speaker 3: we didn't have the same intensity that you know, we

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Speaker 3: had a couple of weeks ago. We most definitely needed

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Speaker 3: that to carry over to this game, but just the

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Speaker 3: intensity was just not where it needed to be, right, Probably,

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Speaker 3: just like I said, just probably just having a little

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Speaker 3: anxiety for the game, big road game.

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Speaker 1: This is the top program in America for the past

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Speaker 1: decade and a half. Some of you aren't even that old.

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Speaker 1: They've been on top of the mountain as a program

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Speaker 1: for the past decade and a half plus. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about lack of requisite intensity. We're talking about lack of

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Speaker 1: requisite focus. We're talking about competitive anxiety. Alabama. Alabama is

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Speaker 1: admitting to you they're suffering from the sort of thing

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Speaker 1: they used to make other teams suffer from when they

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Speaker 1: knew they were about to play them or after they

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Speaker 1: just played them. I've been around that team for a

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Speaker 1: long time. I was around some of those teams in

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Speaker 1: the twenty teams, the A'shawn Robinson teams, Jaron Reed teams,

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Allen, Mika Fitzpatrick, A'shawn Robinson. Those were the kind

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Speaker 1: of squads where I kid you not. I'm in Athens, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: one afternoon and they're up thirty eight three. They give

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Speaker 1: up a long touchdown run and what you and I

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Speaker 1: would call garbage time, and they're fighting each other on

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Speaker 1: the sideline. I'm out in Glendale, Arizona. They are winning

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Speaker 1: the national championship. The game has ended, Confetti is falling down.

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Allen is back and forth with teammates. Why not

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Speaker 1: because they didn't win. They didn't play the way they

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Speaker 1: wanted to. The season's over, guys. He's going after teammates

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Speaker 1: because they just didn't play at a high enough standard.

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Speaker 1: I have watched on multiple occasions. You're talking about competitive

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Speaker 1: anxiety before a game. I used to watch Tony Brown

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Speaker 1: come out of the tunnel shirtless in track pants and

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Speaker 1: just waltz through the opposing teams warm up cadences didn't care,

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Speaker 1: not an ounce of anxiety to be found anywhere in

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Speaker 1: that locker room. And so if you think that you're

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Speaker 1: pissed off as an Alabama fan, or if you think

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Speaker 1: you're dumbfound and like me watching that from a distance,

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Speaker 1: imagine former players listening to that garbage. That's excuse making.

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Speaker 1: It's all it is. Whether it's true or not, it's

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Speaker 1: excuse making. Because you and I both know if Tennessee

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Speaker 1: misses that field goal or Obama makes a field goal

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Speaker 1: and they win, we're not hearing any of that following Monday.

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Speaker 1: This is so foreign to me to hear from Alabama.

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Speaker 1: I've heard it either on the record or behind the

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Speaker 1: scenes from other teams that used to have to play Bama,

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Speaker 1: because that's the kind of stuff they used to strike

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Speaker 1: into you. Not anymore apparently, And so you see what

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about a little bit. When when you're questioning

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Speaker 1: play calling, or you're questioning designs and schemes, they can

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Speaker 1: adjust all that. If you don't have like in here,

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Speaker 1: if you don't have what you need intensity wise, if

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Speaker 1: you're anxious competitively, no amount of adjustments is gonna matter.

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Speaker 1: They'll get beat again, or when they go up against

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Speaker 1: Tennessee or Georgia, they'll get beat. And this team, which

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Speaker 1: I think collectively just on paper, has the chance to

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Speaker 1: be one of the best knick Sabans ever had, will

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Speaker 1: underachieve and you'll be left asking why in January. And

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Speaker 1: yet I think they just admitted to you what the

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Speaker 1: why would be. But I say all that, and I'm

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Speaker 1: telling you they could still win the national championship. So

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Speaker 1: this is kind of me. You know, when I look

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Speaker 1: at potentially great teams, I want them to be great.

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Speaker 1: I want Ohio State to be that way this year.

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Speaker 1: Like I look at the ones that I know are capable,

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Speaker 1: and there are only a few of them. Bama's one

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Speaker 1: of them. And I remember last year being in Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: and watching them come this close in a year where

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Speaker 1: I thought they had no business playing for a title,

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Speaker 1: and they still almost accidentally tripped into a national title.

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Speaker 1: And I found myself saying, good for that team, But

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Speaker 1: next year, that'll be the year for them. Well we're

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Speaker 1: in next year, and so far through six weeks, I

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Speaker 1: got folks not channing. I got folks not ready to

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Speaker 1: take the field. I mean, can you imagine going into

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Speaker 1: that environment Saturday night and then walking out of it

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Speaker 1: afterwards and saying, ah, my intensity wasn't there. That was

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Speaker 1: the most charged environment I've ever been in. The numbers

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Speaker 1: came out today, that game peaked at seventeen million viewers.

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Speaker 1: It was the most watched college football game of the

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Speaker 1: year by a wide margin. And I got potential top

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Speaker 1: five draft picks telling me just a little anxious, but

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Speaker 1: probably collectively, the mind just wasn't there the way it

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Speaker 1: needed to be. I got no time for that. No time.

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Speaker 1: That's horrible. I would, honestly, I appreciate honesty. I would

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Speaker 1: rather just not have heard that. I'll tell you what

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Speaker 1: I do love hearing though. Our friends at Academy Sports

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Speaker 1: and Outdoors. Look at that. They've gone double box on

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Speaker 1: us tonight. We got them on two screens instead of

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Speaker 1: just one, and I'm going to take that to mean

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Speaker 1: that they endorse what we're doing on the show. It

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Speaker 1: couldn't just be Colin punched it on another box. It

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Speaker 1: has to be that Academy has something to do with that.

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Speaker 1: Academy Sports and Outdoors I always kind of say, your

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Speaker 1: one stop shot for everything sporting goods wise and otherwise.

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Speaker 1: But some of you have started to chime in, almost

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Speaker 1: to the degree that I think maybe we'll start once

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Speaker 1: a week just screenshotting some of your emails. They're unsolicited.

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Speaker 1: You guys who listen to the show all the time,

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't necessarily beg you to send those

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Speaker 1: emails in. But that brand Academy Sports and Outdoors is

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Speaker 1: so kind of interwoven into the fabric of this show

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Speaker 1: that you have taken ownership. You almost take it as

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Speaker 1: your duty to go and peruse the selection, either there

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Speaker 1: or at academy dot com. You send me your emails,

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Speaker 1: you let me know what you found there that you

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Speaker 1: didn't think you were gonna find. The those are my favorite,

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Speaker 1: and then I promptly forward them on to the folks

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Speaker 1: at Academy and they love it too. And even though

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Speaker 1: you guys don't know it, some of your emails end

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Speaker 1: up in some of their quarterly earnings reports. And I

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Speaker 1: don't even think I'm supposed to tell you that, but look,

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Speaker 1: they love it, and I love it, and everyone loves it.

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Speaker 1: So thank you to Academy Sports and Outdoors. They're the

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Speaker 1: reason why you're not having to pay anything for this show.

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Speaker 1: And why these lights are on and why you know

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Speaker 1: we can afford not only Chawli have supremacy, but this

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Speaker 1: mysterious orange liquid in the Chali. We couldn't afford that before,

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Speaker 1: could we, Jesse? Colin though, absolutely not. It was Caprice, son, Ramen,

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Speaker 1: noodles or bust around here. Thank you to Academy Sports

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Speaker 1: and Outdoors and if you can't get there in person,

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Speaker 1: as I said Academy dot Com, Okay, we got We

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Speaker 1: got such a big week here and I want to

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Speaker 1: make sure that I do something. Hey Colin, just yell

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Speaker 1: in my ear. Am I supposed to do UCLA and

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Speaker 1: organ right now? Yeah, it's time for that. It's time

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Speaker 1: for the preview pack. Twelve Paate, as you know, is

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Speaker 1: tattooed on my lower back. It's been my moniker since

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Speaker 1: as long as I can remember. I was a little

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Speaker 1: youth walking around West central Georgia and everyone else was

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Speaker 1: sec sec but not pac twelve Paate. Here we are

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Speaker 1: headed the Every Given Saturday Tour is headed to u Cla, Oregan.

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Speaker 1: Apparently Jesse thought we were driving, and good for him.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's a very novice approach to the Every

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Speaker 1: Given Saturday Tour. No we'll we'll fly out to Portland

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Speaker 1: later this week, so we're looking very much for and

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Speaker 1: then we'll drive down to Eugene, of course, to the

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Speaker 1: Every Given Saturday Tour, first time ever at Oughtson Stadium.

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Speaker 1: This is a three thirty Eastern time kickoff on Fox.

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Speaker 1: It is obviously twelve thirty local time. Why is that

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Speaker 1: good because it allows us to catch a red eye

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Speaker 1: back and be in Nashville the next morning. This is

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Speaker 1: the first Top ten matchup in Aughtson Stadium since when? When?

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Speaker 1: W you guess is the last Top ten game that's

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Speaker 1: been in that stadium? I thought like twenty eleven, so

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Speaker 1: it's more recent than that. It was twenty fourteen. Chip Kelly,

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Speaker 1: he's been back before, but he's playing in Aughtson Stadium.

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Speaker 1: That is noteworthy. UCLA versus Top ten teams on the

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Speaker 1: road under Chip Kelly not a huge sample size. They're

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Speaker 1: zero to two, but the average margin of defeat has

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Speaker 1: been thirty seven points per game. So let's move over that,

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Speaker 1: because if you like UCLA, that's not fun to hear.

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Speaker 1: One cannot help but pull up the trusty eye, Josh,

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Speaker 1: and I've got the fancy paid weather apps. But you

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Speaker 1: could just go to the basics, the casual apps, if

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Speaker 1: you will. And you see, it's probably gonna pour this weekend.

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Speaker 1: It has not rained in Eugene, Oregon for like a month,

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Speaker 1: but leave it to us to book a trip up

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Speaker 1: there and have the weather flip entirely. It was below

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Speaker 1: freezing in Nashville last night. We're gonna get a what

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Speaker 1: is it a daily used whatever the word is a

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Speaker 1: lot of rain. We're gonna get it in Eugene this weekend.

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Speaker 1: And so that begs the question from a football since

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Speaker 1: who does that favor? And the immediate answer that I

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Speaker 1: think most of us would give is, well, doesn't that

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Speaker 1: favor the team that's got the number one running back

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Speaker 1: in the Pac twelve, Zach Charboney And that's of course UCLA.

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Speaker 1: Maybe or maybe not because in this game last year,

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Speaker 1: mister Charbonay had his second worst rushing performance of his career.

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Speaker 1: So are you looking at career stats or you're looking

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Speaker 1: at matchups, because this matchup was not particularly kind in

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Speaker 1: a narrow loss to Oregon last year, it was the worst.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's thirty five rushing yards, that's what he

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Speaker 1: had in this game last year. Fifty six total and

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Speaker 1: Oregon has given up about three point sixty five yards

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Speaker 1: per carry defensively, so not terrible rushing statistics for the Ducks.

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Speaker 1: Now Oregon, and the reason why I'm looking at this

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Speaker 1: thing is kind of a wash, no pun intended. If

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Speaker 1: weather is a factor, and I think it may be.

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Speaker 1: Oregon runs the ball just fine. Oregon's got the fourth

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Speaker 1: best yards per carry in FBS. They just don't do

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Speaker 1: it with one individual person. But the real question for

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Speaker 1: me is whether their pass defense can hold up, you know,

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Speaker 1: if if it is within reason conditions wise to be

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Speaker 1: able to throw the ball Oregon pass defense. Man. Look,

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Speaker 1: you can try and dismiss these numbers all you want to,

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Speaker 1: but they're real, like they are written from Statson Info

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Speaker 1: right here on this piece of paper in front of me.

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Speaker 1: Statson Bennett look like Joe Montana against them in week one,

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Speaker 1: eighty percent completion three hundred and sixty eight yards through

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Speaker 1: the air. Okay, cam Ward with Washington State through for

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Speaker 1: three seventy five, seventy seven percent completion percentage. Now Dorian

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Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson is a seventy four point eight percent completion

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Speaker 1: percentage guy this year. So you're seeing it on the

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Speaker 1: screen right now. If they give up that kind of day,

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Speaker 1: it's a long after afternoon, that just means you got

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Speaker 1: to outscore him. But on the other side, you see

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Speaker 1: Bo Nicks over there, he's at seventy percent himself. Do

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Speaker 1: we get good Bow, do we get bad Boat? Do

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Speaker 1: we get big game? Bo? So I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: done it enough on the big stage to warrant that nickname,

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Speaker 1: but he could take it from someone who followed him

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Speaker 1: in high school. He could absolutely clearly. The biggest factor,

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Speaker 1: given number one the matchup and number two potential weather conditions,

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Speaker 1: is quarterback mobility. Both of these teams have it. I

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Speaker 1: want you to listen to these two numbers because this

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Speaker 1: is what we'll decide this game. Bo Nick's average yards

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Speaker 1: per carry is at eight point three past two games.

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Speaker 1: It's been over fifteen in October. Here's a producer, Jesse Special.

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Speaker 1: He walks in anytime he's smiling, he walks in with

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Speaker 1: a stat He said, Hey, that yards per carry for

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Speaker 1: Nicks is good, but fifteen point one in October, So

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Speaker 1: take it to the bank. Something about Jack O Landers

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Speaker 1: being on the front porch every block really makes Bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks move a little bit faster, but dtrs at five

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Speaker 1: point five yards per carry two sooth. Some of those

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Speaker 1: guys can extend plays, they can improvise, they can move

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Speaker 1: the pocket, and when all else breaks down, they can

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Speaker 1: go get you a first down. That stuff is so

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Speaker 1: hard to predict. All you can go on are these numbers,

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Speaker 1: but that in reality is probably gonna decide this game.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the model thinks. Let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at the Vegas number. If you're listening

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Speaker 1: on podcasts at the time we are recording this, the

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Speaker 1: number is Oregon minus six, and that totals all the

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Speaker 1: way almost up to seventy. The model is sort of

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Speaker 1: in line with Vegas. We've got it one notch higher.

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Speaker 1: We've got it Oregon minus seven. And I gotta be

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Speaker 1: real with you, I think Ucla has it in them

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Speaker 1: to keep this very close. I do expect Oregon to

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Speaker 1: get the win here. But if you made me against

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Speaker 1: the spread, make a selection, and we do, because that's

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Speaker 1: what a prediction is, I would take Ucla in the points.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's gonna be Razor type one possession game.

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Speaker 1: I think Oregon's gonna win. If I had to go

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Speaker 1: straight up if I had to go against the number,

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Speaker 1: I would take Ucla. A reminder, right now, the odds

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Speaker 1: to win the PAC twelve Championship, Oregon is the favorite

426
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,239
Speaker 1: at plus one sixty, and guess who's right behind him

427
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 1: at plus one ninety. That would be the Bruins. Essentially,

428
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 1: what that is is this game, and you got a

429
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: little bit fatter juice on Ucla because they're the road team.

430
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: But that's essentially what Vegas is telling you. This game

431
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 1: will definitively determine the favorite in the Pac twelve. And

432
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: of course, you just saw USC and Utah play last week.

433
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: They're three and four right now, so USC is off

434
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 1: this week, as is Utah. So we'll see how these

435
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 1: odds look come Sunday. Speaking of all those teams, they

436
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: are about to be featured in the Jpeepole. I appreciate

437
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: you guys being tuned in live. If you are, remember

438
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: to like the video and remember to subscribe to the channel.

439
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 1: I see Jason Hughes in here. Probably shouldn't have U

440
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 1: his last name, but he does. Jason's hating on me,

441
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: but it's warranted. Rarely do I say this, but I

442
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: encourage this kind of criticism Jason's mad as he should

443
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,719
Speaker 1: be because on the Sunday Show, mister sec bias himself

444
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: here got to recap the LSU Florida game. How does

445
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: this happen? Well, our buddy Van Lathan from The Ringer

446
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 1: called me out initially on Twitter, and I told him, look,

447
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 1: there's an excuse, and it involves papers being stuck together.

448
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: As you see, I just flipped through these papers and

449
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 1: sometimes I'm paying a little more attention. Maybe I had anxiety,

450
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 1: who knows, But the LSU Florida paper kind of got

451
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 1: shoved over in the stack without getting addressed, and that

452
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: was what happened to the LSU Florida segment. Now, listen,

453
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 1: I am not going to do it on Tuesday because

454
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: it's like ninety six hours dated. Now what I will

455
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: do is I will prominently feature LSU in just a

456
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: few minutes because they're playing Ole Miss this week at home.

457
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: Could be the sneaky best game of the weekend. The

458
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 1: line is one and a half. It's the SEC on

459
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: CBS game of the week. Blah blah blah. I've basically

460
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 1: read all the copy now that legal gave me to read.

461
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 1: We'll get to it, and sincerely, I apologize, although to

462
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: be clear, it's not just my fault. Okay, let's go

463
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: with the JP Pole this week. JP Pole, Week eight edition.

464
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: These are not rankings. These are power ratings, and let

465
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: me stress this week knowing what I'm about to show you.

466
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: If these were rankings, if this was my AP ballot,

467
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: it would look much different than this, much different. But

468
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,199
Speaker 1: it doesn't because these are power ratings and all that

469
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: matters on a neutral field tomorrow, friends, is who the

470
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: model would favor over who. That is the order that

471
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 1: these teams are listed in. So let's start twenty five

472
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 1: to twenty one. We have a situation here. Purdues back

473
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 1: in the ratings. They weren't last week. Wake is there,

474
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: Texas A and M is there and they were off

475
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: Power in the world. Did they move up JP, Well,

476
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 1: they moved up, not because they did anything, but the

477
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: numbers moved around and either some teams dropped below them,

478
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: or just because you don't play doesn't mean your stat

479
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: profile and your data profile doesn't change cause other teams

480
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 1: you've played did something last week and that indirectly impacts

481
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: your data profile. It's really boring to talk about Oregon State.

482
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: They're at twenty two, and Florida State is only down one.

483
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: Let me explain Florida State to you right quick, because

484
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: this is where really quickly you learn the difference between

485
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: a power rating and a ranking. Florida State was at

486
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: twenty last week and they lost to Clemson, right, so

487
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: certainly you would see them bump down in the AP rankings.

488
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: But here's the thing. We had them at twenty, not five.

489
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: We had them at twenty, and they lost by pretty

490
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: much the margin we thought they would lose by. That

491
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 1: means they were exactly the team we thought they were,

492
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: so we have no reason to move them. We had

493
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: them pegged exactly right. In other words, they did what

494
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: the twentieth best team in the country should have done

495
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: at home against about the sixth to fifth best team

496
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: in the country. So that's a power rating, all right.

497
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 1: Moving on top twenty time, LSU was not power rated

498
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: last week. LSU had a really good day or night

499
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: in Gainesville. You wouldn't know it if you watched this show,

500
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 1: but they did. Arkansas's back. I don't care what you

501
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: say about me, I don't care what you say about

502
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 1: the model. It likes Arkansas. Arkansas went up in those

503
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: mountains and they got to win against Brigham Young formerly

504
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: known as BYU on this show, So Arkansas's back into

505
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,959
Speaker 1: power ratings. And again I apologize to no One and

506
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 1: hold on a second, let me listen. No, the Model

507
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 1: doesn't apologize either. Mississippi State dropped nine spots at eighteen. Really,

508
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: I just think Mississippi State's a good home team. The

509
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 1: unfortunate task they draw this week is going into Tuscaloosa

510
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: against an Alabama team that we just drugged for the

511
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: first nine minutes of the show, and Alabama's undefeated when

512
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: we drag him the next week. I think that's just

513
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: a fact. Kentucky is at seventeen, Penn State is at sixteen.

514
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 1: What do we do with Penn State? What do we do?

515
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: You can't go all a vengeful like Jesse didn't even

516
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: want him power rated. He thought we should just expel them.

517
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: He thought we should put him on power rating probation,

518
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: which of course is ASEN nine. But we had to

519
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: put him somewhere. So the Model dropped him to sixteen.

520
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 1: And I don't feel good. I don't feel overly confident.

521
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: They're playing Minnesota this week, and boy do they need

522
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 1: a win. We're gonna do that game Thursday. Boy, do

523
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: they need to win top fifteen. Let's take a look.

524
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: It's gonna get treacherous, It's gonna get controversial up here UCLA.

525
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: Now look, you notice we have them in Oregon a

526
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: little bit lower than the ap Don't worry about it.

527
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: Gonna be a great game fifteen versus thirteen. Kansas State

528
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 1: is the team that intrigues me because they're at fourteen.

529
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: Kansas State plays at TCU this week, and you know

530
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: that that is one of our best bets of the week.

531
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: I think Kansas State is winning outright Saturday against TCU.

532
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: Not to put a spoiler alert on you, but I

533
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: think that they are going to win outright. I don't

534
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: like the spot for TCU at all, and I conversely

535
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 1: do like the spot very much, even on the road,

536
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: for Kansas State. So let's just let's keep our eye

537
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 1: on that because it's you notice we've got TCU power

538
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: rated ahead of Kansas State and they're at home right,

539
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: So if this is who would be favored against two,

540
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 1: it makes no sense that I would pick TCU over

541
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: Kansas State. That's true in a vacuum if both teams

542
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 1: are rested, but there are situational scheduling dynamics here that

543
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 1: end up in this case overriding the small point gap

544
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: that we see between TCU and Kansas State. And that

545
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 1: sounds like word salad, and it kind of is, but

546
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: it kind of isn't that there's at there are a

547
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: little chunks of meat inside the salad. And so that

548
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: explains that Ole misses at twelve. Schedule gets really really

549
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: tough for him or for them starting really this week.

550
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: Oklahoma States at eleven, all right, top ten time we

551
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 1: got TCU at ten. I just kind of explained that

552
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 1: to you, all Right, Utah and USC at nine and eight.

553
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: USC tomorrow would probably, according to the model, be like

554
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: a three quarter of a point favorite over Utah, so

555
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: it essentially has them as the same team. Clearly, in

556
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 1: the rankings world, you would have reason maybe to put

557
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: Utah ahead of USC, even though still two losses versus

558
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: one loss. We don't care about any of that model

559
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: only cares about who it would favor, and there is

560
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: certainly nothing that a one point loss in their building

561
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: does to prove that that team should be power rated

562
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: ahead of you. That's not the way power ratings work.

563
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: I'm also not advocating for this to be the way

564
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: the playoff is selected. So you can save that Texas

565
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: dropped three spots at seven. You know, Texas, there were

566
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 1: a couple of opportunities for them to just lose to

567
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: Iowa State, and whether they lost or not, the model

568
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: sees the performance and it says, all right, let's back

569
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: off of them just a little bit. They go to

570
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State this weekend, that is a really really big game,

571
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: and Clemson is at six. I think that they dropped,

572
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: not because they dropped. In fact, I think Clemson's power

573
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: rating number went up a little bit. It's just that

574
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: someone else has went up a little bit more. Let's

575
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: take a look at the top five. We got Tennessee

576
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: at five. We haven't really had to adjust Tennessee and

577
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: Michigan a whole lot, because, as you know, as recently

578
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: as three weeks ago, we were getting made fun of

579
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: for having Tennessee in Michigan up inside the top ten

580
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 1: and up inside the top seven. The Model New don't

581
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: know what to tell you, the Model New, and now

582
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: everyone does. So Tennessee's at five, I should have gotten

583
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: you the number. It would favor Michigan slightly against Tennessee

584
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: on a neutral field today. All right, here is the

585
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: adjusted three through one. We got Bama at three. Now

586
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: they dropped another spot. Georgia is at two. Ohio State's

587
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 1: at one. Currently the model would put Ohio State minus

588
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: four versus Alabama neutral field. It would be Ohio State

589
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: minus two versus Georgia neutral field, Georgia favored by two

590
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: against Alabama. Right now, here's the interesting part. In some

591
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: of the futures markets, you can already bet Michigan at

592
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: Ohio State and the numbers Ohio State minus ten and

593
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: a half. Our numbers have Ohio State ten points better

594
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: than Michigan on a neutral field, which means with the

595
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: game in Columbus, our model would make it more like

596
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: Ohio State minus thirteen or so. Truthfully, I think that

597
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: number is too big. I don't think the gap between

598
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: those two teams is that large. But the model disagrees,

599
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: and you know, I don't have to agree with the model.

600
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: It's kind of like a marriage. You don't have to

601
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: agree on everything. But we are model and I. We

602
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: are equally yoked where it counts the most, okay, and

603
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: that is power ratings forever over rankings. There's the top

604
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: ten of Week eight. Alabama the lowest point they've been

605
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: all year at number three, Tennessee the highest point they've

606
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: been all year at five. Very very simply, for anyone

607
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: who asks, and you may be new to this, I'm

608
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: sarcastic about it, but you may be new to this

609
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,959
Speaker 1: whole concept, how could you have Bama behind or how

610
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: could you have Bama head to Tennessee. They just lost

611
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: to them. They went into Knoxville, they were favored by

612
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: nine points I think at kickoff right in Knoxville. Okay,

613
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: so that would be up round twelve or thirteen on

614
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: a neutral field. That result does not shave thirteen points

615
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: of value off of those two teams, respectively. So if

616
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 1: they were to play neutral field tomorrow, I know this

617
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: comes as a shock to you, guys, Bama would still

618
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 1: be over a touchdown favorite even with the most radical

619
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: of adjustments. Now you'd probably bet Tennessee, and that's your prerogative.

620
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: We're not even predicting winners. We're just predicting what numbers

621
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: would be. That's it. That's how they are still power

622
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: rated above Tennessee. Okay, let's get back to predicting some games.

623
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: Please the uh well, let's take a sip out of

624
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: the challice first. It's truly good. I mean, I badly,

625
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: badly wish that this company, not the glass company, this

626
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: beverage company, would sponsor us. So I would love to

627
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: give them shout outs. A huge look at this. If

628
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: this is your company, and by the liquid, just by

629
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: the liquid, you can tell jump on this. John, don't

630
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: let this opportunity pass you. By Ole Miss at LSU Saturday,

631
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: three thirty Eastern time. It is the SEC on CBS

632
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: Game of the week. There is a rumor floating around.

633
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: I want to dispel it tonight because we don't like

634
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: rumors around here unless it's the nineteen seventy seven classic

635
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: album from Fleetwood Mac. Aside from O Daddy just terrible song,

636
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: the rest of them on there are pretty much bangers.

637
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: The SEC West, contrary to those rumors, not decided yet.

638
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: Did you know that Ole Miss has no losses? Did

639
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: you know that LSU only has one conference loss? Did

640
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: you know that if really either of these teams won

641
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: this weekend and then ended up beating Alabama, they would

642
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: have the leg up on Bama. Did any of you

643
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: know that? No? Yes, Well there you go. So it's

644
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: not just this foregone conclusion that Bama's going to skate

645
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: their way to Atlanta. They still have obstacles, including both

646
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: of these teams, but that's for another day. They're playing

647
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: each other this Saturday. Ole Miss they won last year

648
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: thirty one seventeen, but they have lost half a dozen

649
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: in a row in Baton Rouge, and they didn't throw

650
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: them the dreaded eleven am kickoff. This is mid afternoon.

651
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: They'll be good, they'll be ready to go. It's been

652
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: a light schedule for Old Miss so far. Now that's

653
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: not an indictment on a team. That's just what it is.

654
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: It's their schedule. You can only play who's on your schedule.

655
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: But we've known for a while that the back half

656
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: is brutal for ole Miss, in fact, unprecedented, Colin, can

657
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: you already throw up Ole Miss schedule? They've played Troy Central, Arkansas,

658
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Auburn, Okay. And now

659
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: they've got at LSU at Texas A and Mbama at

660
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: Arkansas Mississippi State. So they've got it to do. And

661
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: this is going to be a really, really tough stretch here.

662
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: They start by going on the road to LSU. They're

663
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: two road games so far were Georgia Tech and Vandy.

664
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: So certainly they've not dealt with the road factor they're

665
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: about to deal with, and more importantly, Jackson Dart has

666
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: not dealt with the road factor that he will deal

667
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: with here. We're over halfway through the season, as you

668
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 1: can see there, or as you heard if you're listening

669
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: on podcasts, and I still get the distinct impression a

670
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: lot of the college football public, maybe the casual public,

671
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 1: I'll just call them the casual the college football public.

672
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: I get the sense that some people are unaware of

673
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: what ole Miss is, or maybe hoops ole Miss is.

674
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: There are people out there who see them putting up

675
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: big numbers on the scoreboard, and they still think to themselves,

676
00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: there goes Lane airing it out. They are third in

677
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: America in rushing yards per game. They are first in

678
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: America in rushing touchdowns per game. They are running all

679
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: over people. It is one of the most lethal rushing

680
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 1: attacks in America. They got Judkins, they got Zach Evans there.

681
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: They've got a quarterback that can run, and they run

682
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: it on the perimeter. It's another very very important aspect

683
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: because sometimes when you hear ooh, someone can run the

684
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 1: ball really well, that's okay. We're really fortified on the inside.

685
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 1: You have the best defensive tackle combo in the world,

686
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: and the old mis Cauits still run for three hundred

687
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 1: and fifty on you. They run it on the perimeter.

688
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: You got to be really good at setting the edge.

689
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 1: You got to be really good at outside linebacker. You've

690
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 1: got to be able to tackle in the secondary. So

691
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 1: it's a kind of it's a different challenge than you're

692
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: used to when you talk about stopping the run, so

693
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,240
Speaker 1: containing tackling. That's stuff that they're emphasizing down there all week,

694
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: and especially Brian Kelly because he just saw Florida run

695
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: all over him. He saw Tennessee run all over him

696
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: the week before. That's what he's been talking about. We

697
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: don't tackle well enough. Well, that could be a big

698
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: problem with the team coming town this weekend. Ole Miss

699
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: has gotten off to fast starts too. Now I don't

700
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: need to tell LSU folks how critical this is, because

701
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: they two weeks ago, last time they were at home,

702
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: they saw what happened when they got behind a high

703
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 1: octane offense in Tennessee. That was a tempo based passing attack.

704
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 1: But you notice what Tennessee did that day. They didn't

705
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: throw the ball all over the place. They ran the

706
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: ball all over LSU and maybe stylistically different, but philosophically

707
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: it was the exact same thing that Lane Kiffin and

708
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: ole Miss will try and do it. Also, when you

709
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: run a tempo based offense, it really makes the crowd

710
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: have a lot harder time getting involved because when you're

711
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: snapping the ball every ten or twelve seconds, you're not

712
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 1: getting deep in play clots, you're not making a ton

713
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: of adjustments at the line of scrimmage. They just don't

714
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 1: have time to kind of as a crowd sink their

715
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: teeth into you and get you to jump or get

716
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: you to call time out. It's just not the way

717
00:35:55,360 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: it works. So tempo and running plus costly mistake, that

718
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: was the combination for Tennessee to jump all over them early.

719
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: You got to avoid that. Ole Miss is one of

720
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: what was it Jesse, one of only four teams or

721
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: something like that in the country that has grabbed the

722
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: lead in every game they've played so far this year.

723
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: So that's all well and good. If ole Miss does

724
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: that But here's the LSU side of things. Jaydon Daniels

725
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: had a really good day through the air the other day.

726
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 1: You're gonna play a better defensive team here. But here's

727
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 1: what I just out of curiosity, love to see. I'd

728
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: love to see what ole Miss looks like on the

729
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: road trailing. I want to see what it's like when

730
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: they have to play in trail technique, which is a

731
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: cornerback term, but I use it as a team term.

732
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: Do they have that in them if they have to

733
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: throw the ball, if they have to lean on the

734
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 1: passing game a little bit more on the road against

735
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: Even depleted though they may have been in the summer,

736
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: still one of the better sets of defensive backs that

737
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: they'll see this year. I would love to see how

738
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: they respond to that challenge. Now, we don't know if

739
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: it's going to present itself Saturday, but i'd love to

740
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: see it. The line right now is LSU minus one

741
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: and a half that opened on the other side of zero.

742
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,760
Speaker 1: Ole Miss opened is the favorite. It has crossed zero,

743
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: and LSU currently is favoryby one and a half. The

744
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 1: Model agrees we always love when the Vegas number comes

745
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: to us because the Model also has LSU minus one

746
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: and a half. I think now I'm kind of going

747
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: to really gonna have to go on a hunt here.

748
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: There's a chance that ole Miss may not be exactly

749
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: the caliber of team you think they are, but the

750
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 1: schedule just hasn't had the chance to expose that yet.

751
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: There's that chance. There's also a chance they're every bit

752
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: as legit as they look. I do love the LSU

753
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 1: already has a loss as it relates to this game,

754
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 1: because I love that they have no willer room. They

755
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 1: got two losses overall, they got one loss in conference,

756
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: and I love that they get them at home. And

757
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 1: I love that you could have baked into this a

758
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: little bit of inflation with ole Miss. I think it's

759
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: LSU's game. I think they're gonna win it. I think

760
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: LSU is gonna cover the one and a half. I

761
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 1: don't know how you would predict otherwise, And the odds

762
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. Right now, you got a one

763
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: through four of Georgia, Bama, Tennessee, ole Miss, and then

764
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: there is this huge drop off and then it's LSU

765
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: at plus three thousand, and then it's an even bigger

766
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: drop off to Mississippi State. So we'll see how that adjusts.

767
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 1: I think LSU is gonna win. I think they're gonna cover.

768
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: I think it's a really close game, really really competitive game,

769
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: could very well end up being the most entertaining game

770
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: of Saturday. Next up, we hop on, we hop on

771
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: the regional jet, not the full body. We're gonna get

772
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: in the regional jet and we're gonna go from Baton

773
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 1: Rouge to Stillwater. Probably no direct flights to be found there.

774
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 1: The Big twelve is going to deliver yet again this Saturday,

775
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,760
Speaker 1: and it's Kansas State TCU, but we've also got Texas

776
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State. Don't be fooled by Texas last week.

777
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: I am begging you. I know someone out there is

778
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: gonna fall for it. Someone out there is gonna go

779
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: watch like I did last night. You're gonna watch the

780
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: replay of Iowa stay pushing them right to the brink,

781
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: and you're gonna say, hold up. Texas is favored by

782
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 1: nearly a touchdown on the road, and they almost got

783
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: beat at home against Check's notes Iowa State last week.

784
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: Give me all those points. We predicted it, we expected it,

785
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: and I'm someone who's had Texas inside the top six

786
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks, so I think higher

787
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: of them than the AP does or pretty much anyone else.

788
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 1: We expected them to nearly get beat last week. It's

789
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 1: just if you look at the schedule and you've ever

790
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: watched this sport for a length of time, when they

791
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: did what they did to Oklahoma, and they knew they

792
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: had Oklahoma State on deck, and you got a three

793
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 1: lost Iowa State team coming in there that is sleepy

794
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: as student section wasn't close to filled at kickoff, and

795
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: we were gonna get exactly what we got a close call.

796
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: So we predicted it on the show, close Texas win,

797
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: and they got the close win. I could very well

798
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,240
Speaker 1: have lost that game a couple of different times. Doesn't matter.

799
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: All the history books will remember is that they wont.

800
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 1: Now the question is not what they did against Iowa

801
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: State and whether it's going to carry over. Here's your question.

802
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: You got to decide this for yourself. I have a

803
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: good idea where I stand, but you have to decide

804
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: this for yourself. Is this the new Texas or is

805
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: this the same Texas. If it's the new Texas, then

806
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: last week doesn't matter and you will see their best

807
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 1: performance Saturday if it's the same Texas. I've got a

808
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: whole mountain of stats that Jesse gave me that would

809
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 1: indicate they're in big trouble Saturday, cause the old Texas,

810
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: the same Texas, they haven't handled these spots very well.

811
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: A new Texas will render all of these stats irrelevant

812
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 1: and moot, and they will start kind of a new

813
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 1: trajectory for themselves. So that's what you have to ask

814
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: yourself as you make your own predictions. Maybe you bet

815
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: your own money on this new Texas, Same Texas. Texas

816
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 1: is minus for a reason here, so you know, you

817
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 1: know where odds makers are on this. They're not always right,

818
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: but you know where they are on this. You got

819
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: to decide where you are. You also have to do

820
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: your best to find out where Spencer Sanders is. The

821
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State quarterback. He played last week, that's only half

822
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: the story. You know, he had a bum shoulder, he

823
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 1: didn't get to practice all week, and as a result,

824
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: he turned in the worst statistical performance of his career.

825
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: It was by ten miles, the lowest completion percentage of

826
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: his career, and the info is sketchy at best right

827
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 1: now as to whether he's going to play enter Oklahoma

828
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 1: State quarterback Mike Gundy, who stopped by at his press

829
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: conference to help us all out with some information on

830
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: injured starting quarterback Spencer Sanders, and I quote, let's all

831
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 1: do ourselves a favor and not ask about injuries this week.

832
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mike. I sit here and defend him at

833
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 1: all ends, and that's what he gives us. Let's do

834
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: all of ourselves a favor. That did not do me

835
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: any favors. I don't know how you feel. I feel

836
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 1: very favorless right now. So I'm going to just blindly

837
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: assume that we're going to get some version of Spencer

838
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 1: Sanders this week. Can Oklahoma State do what Texas Tech

839
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: did to Texas? Now? I know you got a different

840
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: starting quarterback here, but let's just for broad strokes purposes.

841
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: Remember the last time we saw Texas in a true

842
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 1: road environment, they were in Lubbock and they lost in overtime.

843
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: What offensively did Texas Tech do that day? Well, they

844
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: ran one hundred plays. Remember that they went thirty eight

845
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: to fifty six for three hundred and thirty one yards

846
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: through the air, and they finished with plus two turnovers.

847
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 1: I would consider that a starting point for what Oklahoma

848
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 1: State's offense needs to be able to do this weekend

849
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 1: because I expect more from Texas because I get quinn

850
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: Ewers in lieu of having Hudson card. Texas's offense could

851
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: roll here. You know, for all the bluster back and

852
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: forth about how they struggled last week against Iowa State, Well,

853
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: when you don't have your full attention on an opponent

854
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:59,479
Speaker 1: and they're good defensively, that's the kind of game you get.

855
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 1: And let me give you an example comparatively about what

856
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: they faced last week and what they'll face this week.

857
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,959
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State defensively is given up about twenty eight points

858
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 1: per game. Iowa State's at fifteen. Oklahoma State is giving

859
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 1: up three hundred and one yards pass yards per game

860
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 1: this year, three zho one through the air, Iowa State's

861
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 1: at one eighty four. That's a legit defense. They played

862
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: last week, this one this week not nearly to that degree.

863
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 1: And so here's where I think it could turn because

864
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: there's some edges there for Texas statistically historically, you got

865
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: some edges for Oklahoma State. They're also at home off

866
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: a loss, so you got all that going for you.

867
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 1: But if you split this game, into thirds, which wise

868
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 1: men do the whole special team's dynamic. For Oklahoma State,

869
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 1: I would like you to pay attention to they are

870
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: the only team in the country with a kickoff return

871
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: and a punt return for a touchdown. This year, they've

872
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 1: been really good. And if they can trade points. They

873
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: haven't missed a field goal this year. They haven't missed

874
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 1: an extra point this year. That hidden yard battle that

875
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: could lean, that could tilt heavily towards Oklahoma State. And

876
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: if you've got a close game here, obviously that could

877
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: be the difference. Let's take a look at the model.

878
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at Vegas, and let's decide for

879
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 1: ourselves where we're going. Because we, as much as I

880
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 1: praised the model earlier, are about to hardcore disagree with

881
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: the model. Caesar's line, Vegas line right now, Texas minus six.

882
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 1: The model is drunk on Oklahoma State. They've got Texas

883
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 1: minus two. They the computer, all the keys on the computer,

884
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: they have Texas minus two. This is the model yelling

885
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: at us, take Oklahoma State, fool or else, and I

886
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 1: am going to reside in the or else camp. We

887
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: love Oklahoma State. Okay, hand over my heart. They have

888
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 1: put us in more heype videos than anyone this year,

889
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: including my own high school. So Oklahoma State loves us

890
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 1: more than Harris County High School. But I cannot ignore

891
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 1: what I think I'm seeing happens, and I really think

892
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 1: Texas is going to play the best ball we've seen

893
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: from them all year on the road. I just think

894
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: it's a newer version of Texas. And if I'm wrong,

895
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 1: I won't be the first one to have bought into

896
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 1: Texas have been made a fool of. But you know what,

897
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 1: I think I'm right. I'm gonna take Texas to win.

898
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 1: They are the second odds on favorite to win the

899
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: Big Twelve right now, right behind TCU. And if I'm

900
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:28,439
Speaker 1: right about Texas winning and TCU losing Saturday, we could

901
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: have a new favorite there. We almost do anyway, There's

902
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 1: very little difference between that one and two. So Texas

903
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: plus one eighty TCU plus one seventy. I think Texas

904
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 1: is going to beat Oklahoma State Saturday, and I think

905
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: they are going to cover in the process, although it

906
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: is certainly not a best bet. Let me clear my

907
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 1: throat one more time, because we're about to break down.

908
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 1: I mean a colossal tilt in the ACC undefeated versus undefeated.

909
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: Think you know who I'm talking about. Of course, it's

910
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: Syracuse versus Clemson. And why not take one more look

911
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: chug of our mysterious orange liquid before we talk about

912
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: these two teams clad in as much orange as any

913
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 1: teams in America. H it's really really tangy tonight, community.

914
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 1: I would love anyone to raise their hand if they

915
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:20,839
Speaker 1: saw this coming. Syracuse undefeated against Clemson, also undefeated. This

916
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: is the Saturday noon Eastern time kickoff on ABC. Here's

917
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 1: the thing about me and Syracuse. We haven't been on

918
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 1: the best of terms this year, and it's my fault,

919
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 1: it's not their fault. Remember the Ramannudle Express in Week

920
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: one took Louisville over Syracuse, a regrettable decision, and then

921
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: we doubled down and we took Purdue against Syracuse. Turns

922
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 1: out another regrettable decision. And even though that's my fault,

923
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: I take my anger out on Syracuse and so I

924
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 1: really had to dig deep in my heart. In fact,

925
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 1: I had to call I had to call production executive

926
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: James into my off today, which they're using to give

927
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: flu shots tomorrow. By the way, that's not a joke.

928
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: They're given therapeutic massages and flu shots in my office.

929
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 1: Thanks new Meredith. And so I'm just on a sabbatical tomorrow.

930
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 1: If you need me, I won't be at the office.

931
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 1: But I called James into the office and I say,

932
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 1: make a case for Syracuse. He covers Syracuse now does

933
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 1: a very good job of it, and he said a

934
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: few things that piqued my interest. But most importantly, I'm

935
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: not so sure that a lot of America has watched

936
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 1: this team yet this year. I've seen probably three of

937
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: their games, and so they are a really good defensive team.

938
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 1: But Clemsons play good defensive teams now not number one

939
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: in the ACC. I mean they lead in points per game,

940
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 1: yards per game, pass yards per game, explosive plays allowed,

941
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: Like defensively, they're at the top or near the top

942
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: of the ACC and virtually all those statistical categories. Clemson's

943
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: kind of up there and a lot of them too. Though,

944
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 1: So can the upset happen? That's what we ask in

945
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: these previews. Anytime we get a double digit point spread,

946
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: we're going to take time on the show and we're

947
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: gonna predict the game. The first thing we have to

948
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: ask is can the upset happen? We think the answer

949
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 1: is yes, it can happen. So then the next thing

950
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 1: we do is we say, Okay, if it were to happen,

951
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: how would it happen? I got a twofold approach. And

952
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:17,720
Speaker 1: both of these things really have to come through for Syracuse.

953
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: Number one, those defensive numbers you see on the screen

954
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:22,720
Speaker 1: and the ones I just read to you, they simply

955
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: have to verify that stuff has to be on display Saturday.

956
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 1: And you have to really grind Clemson offensively to a halt.

957
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: You need this game played in the teams or maybe

958
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:38,760
Speaker 1: the low twenties, and that's your first shot. The second

959
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: thing is their offensive line has to be able to

960
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: force enough stalemates. They just have to buy enough time,

961
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: especially if they get some short fields. They have to

962
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 1: buy enough time to do enough through the air, because

963
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 1: they're good enough through the air. But if they don't,

964
00:48:55,600 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 1: if they're working standard link the field and Clemson starts

965
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 1: to do to then what they do to everyone, which

966
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 1: is wrecking offensive front. And then it's not gonna be

967
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 1: a good night. And I'll show you in just a

968
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 1: few minutes. I'll share it with the model thinks but

969
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: Syracuse has played one true road game. I think it

970
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 1: was Yukon. So this is a different world now. And

971
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: in the preseason, you would have looked at this game

972
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 1: on the schedule and you would have said, ooh, Clemson's

973
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: coming off Wake Forest and NC State and Boston College

974
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 1: on the road and FSU on the road and Syracuse. Hmmm, maybe,

975
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 1: just maybe Dino Babers can catch them sleeping. Well, no,

976
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 1: cause Syracuse is undefeated, so they're not sneaking up on anyone.

977
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 1: This is a I mean, this is a national All

978
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 1: of them are nationally televised, but this is a national

979
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:43,879
Speaker 1: attention game, and so you're going to get the full

980
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 1: force of Clemson. Let's look at the schedule here, because

981
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 1: after this, Clemson's got to buy and then they go

982
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 1: to Notre Dame. They got Louisville, they got Miami, which

983
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: I think will be a much improved Miami team when

984
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: they play in South Carolina. So let's take a look

985
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 1: with the model thinks Vegas number as of tonight Tuesday Night,

986
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,720
Speaker 1: We're Live. Thank you for watching Clemson is minus thirteen

987
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: and a half. The models just higher on Clemson, and

988
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 1: I am too. I'd be happy to be proven wrong. Well,

989
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 1: that sounds homersh And we all know, kids like me

990
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: who grow up in rural Georgia have a strange affinity

991
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 1: for Syracuse Athletics. I don't know what it is about us,

992
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: but you know how we roll down there. We're going

993
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: to take Clemson to win. We're gonna take Clemson to cover,

994
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: and they after that will get to a very very

995
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 1: much needed rest period before they enter the back half

996
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: of that schedule. Right now, the Tiger is an overwhelming

997
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: favorite to win the ACC. They are minus four fifty

998
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: favorites North Carolina and then Syracuse and then Miami. I

999
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 1: have got, by the looks of things, two more best

1000
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 1: bets to add onto the Raman Nutle Express, and they're

1001
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: going to go on top of a game that we

1002
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 1: gave out the other day that's already moved. I appreciate

1003
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 1: you guys being tuned in, by the way. If you

1004
00:50:57,280 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: are and have not liked the video, go ahead and

1005
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: us up over a thousand likes, and I'll remind you

1006
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 1: of our challenge one more time in just a second.

1007
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 1: So Kansas State at plus five I gave them out

1008
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 1: the other night. It's the best bet we have of

1009
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: the week. That does not mean bet more on that

1010
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 1: game that all of them equally please. But I love

1011
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 1: Kansas State. I will be on them money line as

1012
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 1: well for a unit, but that's not part of this.

1013
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: We just like them plus five for these purposes. You

1014
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 1: notice what that line did coming down to a field goal. Yeah,

1015
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 1: it's a Situationally, it's not a good spot for TCU.

1016
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: So we like Kansas State. Fresno State minus thirteen back

1017
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: to back weeks. We're riding Fresno State. Here are the

1018
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: two new games. I gotta be really with you. The

1019
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: models feel in Miami, and we bet Miami. Last week,

1020
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 1: For those of you who didn't watch, we had them

1021
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 1: minus seven on the road at Virginia Tech. They were

1022
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 1: up seventeen to nothing and they ended up scoring twenty points.

1023
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech had two fourth quarter touchdowns which cost us

1024
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 1: the game. I think we were on the right side,

1025
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 1: and I think again this week, because they didn't cover

1026
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 1: last week, this number should be double digits and it's not.

1027
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 1: It's Miami minus eight and a half at home against Duke.

1028
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 1: We also like it minus nine, but there are several

1029
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 1: eight and a half's out there tonight, So we're handing

1030
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 1: out eight and a half Cain's minus eight and a half.

1031
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: Just keep an eye, Josh Gaddis, Tyler van Dyke that

1032
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: offense inch by inch. They're coming along. And we are

1033
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 1: also taking Georgia Tech minus three at home against Virginia.

1034
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:28,399
Speaker 1: Why well, we have essentially two mottos on this show.

1035
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 1: One is don't lose to food rice and the other

1036
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 1: is betting gainst Virginia whenever you can, so we try

1037
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 1: and do it every week Georgia Tech minus three. It's

1038
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 1: nothing personal. We just don't think Virginia is very good

1039
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 1: at football this year. We, however, do have a challenge.

1040
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 1: And for those of you who weren't twoed in earlier,

1041
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 1: but you're here now. If you look at our channel

1042
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 1: right now, got about one hundred and thirty five thousand subs.

1043
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 1: It was just a few months ago we were out

1044
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 1: in California and we hit one hundred K. Now, at

1045
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 1: the time I did not have one hundred and fifty

1046
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: k on my mind, but you guys have blown the

1047
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 1: channel up to where it looks like we could get

1048
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty k before the new year. And

1049
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: so that's the challenge. One hundred and fifty thousand subscribers

1050
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 1: on this channel before the new year. We are trending

1051
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,280
Speaker 1: towards that we need to maybe scale a little bit harder.

1052
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 1: But we I mean, we picked up seventeen thousand last month,

1053
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 1: so I think we can get there. And if we do,

1054
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 1: here's order number two for you. Within reason. You have

1055
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 1: to decide what the reward is, because we're all about

1056
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 1: rewarding you guys when you do something that makes us

1057
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 1: look really good in front of Manna and a reminder,

1058
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 1: if you take Pete Paul's phone or me Mom's phone

1059
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 1: and you subscribe, nothing happens. That's it. If you subscribe,

1060
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 1: that's it. They don't get mail, they don't get calls.

1061
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: You don't have to pay nineteen ninety nine every other month.

1062
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: That's not the way it works. So appreciate you guys

1063
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 1: in advanced because I know we'll get there. For direct

1064
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 1: calling or producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate, take care, have

1065
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: a great rest ofer or not. We'll be back here

1066
00:53:54,160 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 1: same time Thursday. Until then, got puts