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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News for this.

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Speaker 2: Wonderful segment of the program Nationwide into the original San

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Speaker 2: Francisco of Charles Schwab, lizz Anne Saunders and Kevin Gordon

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Speaker 2: join us this morning. David Rosenberg published up in Toronto

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Speaker 2: and emphasized the word hope. You lead in your note

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Speaker 2: with the word hope. Lizzie Saunders gauged the hopium out

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Speaker 2: there right now.

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Speaker 3: Well, yesterday there was a lot of it. I think

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Speaker 3: it's impossible, given the instability of how we get information

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Speaker 3: and narrative changes and headlines, to look at a day

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Speaker 3: like yesterday as something akin to what we saw last

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Speaker 3: April ninth. I think there's still a lot of unanswered questions.

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Speaker 3: Even just you know, you're reporting on Trump's comment about

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Speaker 3: the ceasefire being contingent upon the straight Uford moves opening.

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Speaker 3: Yet yesterday it was you know, we might end this

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Speaker 3: thing even if the strait doesn't open.

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Speaker 4: So here we go.

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Speaker 5: Again, exactly, Kevin, given those crosswinds out there, when you're

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Speaker 5: talking to your clients, what's the message is it to

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Speaker 5: look past all this craziness and focus on the fundamentals.

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Speaker 6: What's a conversation I mean, especially with any conflict like this,

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Speaker 6: you never want to make a knee jerk reaction. I mean,

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Speaker 6: we've adjusted how we think about markets and the economy

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Speaker 6: responding to this as it's continued to drag on. Clearly

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Speaker 6: we've taken you know, we've dialed back expectations for what

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Speaker 6: growth is supposed to look like. But I often think,

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Speaker 6: you know, in terms of an investor's reaction, I can't

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Speaker 6: help but think about the Jack Bogal quote, don't just

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Speaker 6: do something?

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Speaker 1: Stand there, and I think.

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Speaker 6: In this moment, you know, it kind of feels act

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Speaker 6: because you don't want to make You can't have a

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Speaker 6: high conviction view on any particular asset class. I think

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Speaker 6: right now you can have some conviction maybe on something

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Speaker 6: like commodities that's somewhat obvious. But I think for the

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Speaker 6: equity market, you know, to Thozan's point about how we

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Speaker 6: get information these days, I mean that gap between Washington

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Speaker 6: and markets is narrowing every single day in terms of

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Speaker 6: policymakings impact on day to day equity moves. So I

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Speaker 6: think that needs to be taken into considering.

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Speaker 7: I mean, let me do this.

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Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon out with an incredible chart. You know les

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Speaker 2: Anne Sanders hasn't seen it, so let's cover.

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Speaker 7: It right now.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, Lysanne Sanders didn't create it.

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Speaker 2: Sure, the standard of four or five hundreds forward twelve

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Speaker 2: months pe was a lofty twenty three point one, and

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Speaker 2: it's coming. I'm going to go stan Fisher on you here,

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Speaker 2: it's coming. I'm popping fifteen or twenty percent from twenty

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Speaker 2: three point one into nineteen point six as well. Does

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Speaker 2: that scream opportunity with you? For you as sub twenty

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Speaker 2: s and p multiple?

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Speaker 3: This has been pure multiple contraction in this corrective phase.

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Speaker 3: Because earnings estimates have continued to go higher. I think

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Speaker 3: the answer to that will be better defined once we

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Speaker 3: actually start earning season. We know why energy sector estimates

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Speaker 3: have gone up. Tech sector estimates have gone up, but

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Speaker 3: with a concentration in just a couple of names.

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Speaker 4: The analysts really haven't.

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Speaker 3: Done must adjusting to estimates for a calendar year, maybe

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Speaker 3: because they're waiting, you know, for as much time as

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Speaker 3: possible to get up to the eve of reporting season

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Speaker 3: and or wait till they get commentary from companies.

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Speaker 5: Kevin, we had a rotation I think kind of late

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Speaker 5: last year, coming into prior to the war, maybe coming

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Speaker 5: out of some of the high grow, highmultiple stuff that

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Speaker 5: have been the drivers's market, that maybe in some more

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Speaker 5: cyclical stuff small and midcaps. Was that just a short

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Speaker 5: term trading thing or is that something longer to you guys.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, what's been interesting is that even on

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Speaker 6: a day like yesterday, when you had tech having its

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Speaker 6: best day, the tech sector having its best day since

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty five, that was to me, in response to

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Speaker 6: what had become the momentum trade in favor of energy,

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Speaker 6: you know, not in favor of tech. What was interesting, though,

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Speaker 6: is even with that significant bounce, you didn't really see

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Speaker 6: any material pickup in flows, particularly in the retail cohort

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Speaker 6: into that sector. I think that that response mechanism, or

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Speaker 6: lack thereof, is pretty important because even in advance of

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Speaker 6: the war, there was a lot of de risking in

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Speaker 6: that particular sector for that cohort, where they were starting

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Speaker 6: to put money to work in outside of that and

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Speaker 6: having a little bit higher conviction in areas of you know,

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Speaker 6: whether it was industrials, whether it was you know, parts

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Speaker 6: of consumer discretionary and staples, or whether it was even financials.

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Speaker 1: So I think that that dynamic.

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Speaker 6: The fact that hasn't really shifted it does tell me

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Speaker 6: that there's still probably more to that, you know, broadening

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Speaker 6: out trade, if you want to think about it that way.

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Speaker 6: But I just think it's been a little bit more delayed,

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Speaker 6: not necessarily derailed. But we're sort of in the camp

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Speaker 6: that it can happen. It's just, of course now, at

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Speaker 6: the mercy of these headlines every day, it's probably not

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Speaker 6: going to happen as fast as we had thought.

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Speaker 2: Lizienne Saunders, Kevin Gordon with this with Charles Schwab together,

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Speaker 2: we just love doing this huge response last time. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for listening across Lizzie Saunders Nation. Okay, I want

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Speaker 2: to talk process here. Did you guys, like, on something

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Speaker 2: as basic as the adjustment of fear of missing ouse?

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Speaker 2: Is he allowed to disagree with you?

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Speaker 7: I mean on one pin?

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Speaker 2: Are you doing Steve roach one and one where you

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Speaker 2: fight like cats and dogs?

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Speaker 3: You know, seven years ago when I hired this guy,

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Speaker 3: I think he not that I ever put fear in anybody,

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Speaker 3: but I think you were.

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Speaker 4: It was your a natural thing for you.

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Speaker 3: Yep, I agree.

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Speaker 4: Now he can say.

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Speaker 3: Whatever he wants, but we're we're pretty consistently aligned.

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Speaker 2: Where are you on fear missing out right now? Gauging

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Speaker 2: it after the shock of this.

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Speaker 3: War, you know, I think the retail trader did slightly

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Speaker 3: shift their tac throughout the course of this war. They

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Speaker 3: became a little bit less enthusiastic at the individual stock

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Speaker 3: lever level with the sort of the by the dip

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Speaker 3: and you know, chasing performance on the upside. So I

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Speaker 3: think there's been a little bit of a little less

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Speaker 3: complacency being expressed in some of the moves by the

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Speaker 3: retail trader. I really though, think what's going on here

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Speaker 3: is given the inability to gauge what the next headline

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Speaker 3: is going to be, what the next narrative shift is

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Speaker 3: going to be, what we can glean and understand is positioning.

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Speaker 3: Where I think there's so much short term money in

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Speaker 3: the market, whether it is the retail trader or systematic

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Speaker 3: catch funds or the CTA world, and there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of focus on what are the crowded trades, what are

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Speaker 3: the desolate trades, and either playing a momentum there or

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Speaker 3: looking for the potential inflection point where you see a shift.

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Speaker 3: So if you can understand the positioning, even though you

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Speaker 3: can't anticipate the headlines.

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Speaker 4: It helps you staying gear.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I guess what I've learned over the last

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Speaker 5: I don't know, ten fifteen years a little bit more

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Speaker 5: is that your retail investors are they're pretty good. I

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Speaker 5: mean they buy the dips, they're pretty I mean I

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Speaker 5: haven't seen any, I haven't felt any.

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Speaker 1: I don't know panic selling.

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Speaker 3: Retail used to be called the dumb money exactly, allocating

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Speaker 3: IPOs like I always.

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Speaker 4: Used to say, not our investors.

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Speaker 6: Yes, there's kind of Lesanda and I were sort of

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Speaker 6: this campaign to get rid of that moniker, you know,

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Speaker 6: the dumb money, because it really isn't and it hasn't been.

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Speaker 6: And I think to your point Paul about you know,

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Speaker 6: this cohort of investors, particularly post pandemic, and we talked

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Speaker 6: about the past ten to fifteen years. Yes, the retail

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Speaker 6: share has gone up. It's sort of the only class

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Speaker 6: of investors that has gone up by as much as

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Speaker 6: it has, almost doubling in percentage, you know, ms in

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Speaker 6: terms of the volume of the market. But if you

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Speaker 6: look particularly the past six years, five to six years, yeah,

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Speaker 6: there hasn't really been number one what I would think

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Speaker 6: of as a real bear market, certainly not when associated

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Speaker 6: with a recession. And I think that is sort of

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Speaker 6: conditioned investors in particularly this new cohort who you know,

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Speaker 6: especially for those who are younger in the you know,

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Speaker 6: whether it's gen Z or young millennial. I think it

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Speaker 6: has kind of conditioned them to think that this will

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Speaker 6: sort of always work as a strategy. But also having

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Speaker 6: a longer time horizon that's not always associated with having

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Speaker 6: a high risk tolerance.

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Speaker 5: So do you guys have your events and you guys

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Speaker 5: go all over the way country? What's the I mean,

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Speaker 5: is there people like me walking in the door or

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Speaker 5: they're younger people walking because it seems like might depends

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Speaker 5: on on their phone engauged.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, depends on where we are, but I know are

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Speaker 1: in Brooklyn.

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Speaker 3: You know what we find Incline events a lot the

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Speaker 3: bigger ones are are multi generations. Yes, so it'll be

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Speaker 3: you know, a retired couple that in some cases they're

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Speaker 3: there with a child and maybe even a grandchild. So interesting,

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Speaker 3: it's the whole it's the whole age mix. When you

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Speaker 3: have twelve trillion dollars in assets, you have a little

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Speaker 3: bit of everything age wise.

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Speaker 2: Lizening Signors, Kevin Gordon where this week continue our futures

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Speaker 2: up twenty seven. The VIC slides from the angst thirty

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Speaker 2: one level where Kevin said go to cash for sure

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Speaker 2: to have the twenty five point one nine. Here we

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Speaker 2: are fifty minutes away from a scheduled President Trump at

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Speaker 2: the Supreme Court. I just saw it on Fox tragg out.

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Speaker 2: He had a substantial number of people below the steps

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Speaker 2: of the Supreme Court in Washington. We'll give you video

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Speaker 2: of that on YouTube as we can here. Don't see

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Speaker 2: that quite right now. So I've got another quote here.

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Speaker 2: This is some Kevin Gordon's research. I believe factor focus

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Speaker 2: high interest covered strong balance sheet, positive earnings, revision trends,

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Speaker 2: and stable improving profit margins Kevin ze mag seven.

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Speaker 6: Not all of them, but I think that over the

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Speaker 6: long term that has proven to be number one. That's

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Speaker 6: been where the stability has been in consistency of returns.

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Speaker 6: Post pandemic, we really have been in a more sort

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Speaker 6: of factor dominated world because it's just harder to make

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Speaker 6: these monolithic sector calls.

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Speaker 1: It's getting harder.

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Speaker 6: It's not impossible, but it's getting harder because of the

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Speaker 6: concentration in a lot of these areas. I mean, communication

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Speaker 6: services is such a standout for that because it's essentially

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Speaker 6: two names that are sometimes close to eighty percent of

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Speaker 6: that sector. But no, we still believe in that up

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Speaker 6: in quality sort of story, and I.

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Speaker 1: Would say, actually that that's moved.

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Speaker 6: The I think what's been one of the more beneficial

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Speaker 6: elements of this market year to date is that's moved

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Speaker 6: down the cap spectrum a little bit. So the percentage

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Speaker 6: of unprofitable companies. Even in an index like the Russell

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Speaker 6: two thousand that has rolled over a year to date,

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Speaker 6: it's still relatively high, but I think that there's been

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Speaker 6: a benefit now spread throughout the market, not necessarily just

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Speaker 6: in your classic SMP five.

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Speaker 5: Hundred, Lizanne, you and I started in the business kind

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Speaker 5: of around the same time. One of the things that's

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Speaker 5: really changed, I think is the whole alternative investment opportunities

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Speaker 5: for everybody, including retail investors. Yes, how do you guys

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Speaker 5: at Schwab position alternative investments, whether it's headsphones, private equity,

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Speaker 5: private credit, real estate, all that kind of stuff, And

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Speaker 5: you guys position that.

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Speaker 3: And you know we are we have been big democratizers

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Speaker 3: over the past fifty plus years, and I think we're

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Speaker 3: part of that process now in helping to bring alternative

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Speaker 3: asset classes into the acid allocation discussion, the most important

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Speaker 3: thing is education around it and also fit making sure

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Speaker 3: the clients who are bringing, whether it's private credit or

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Speaker 3: private equity or hedge funds, that they understand how it

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Speaker 3: fits and what is hopefully a well planned strategic.

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Speaker 4: Acid allocation portfolio.

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Speaker 3: Where are the correlations, what is the willingness to give

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Speaker 3: up some of that transparent see to give up some

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Speaker 3: of that liquidity. Don't just think of it as the

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Speaker 3: shiny new object. I need to get some of this.

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Speaker 3: It's the education that sits behind it. And most of

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Speaker 3: the investors that we talk to who want to add

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Speaker 3: that into the mix, or those that take what we

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Speaker 3: call an advised approach where they're working with one of

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Speaker 3: our advisors, one of our financial consultants in developing a

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Speaker 3: long term actual plan.

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Speaker 2: I have to ask this to close out Laza, and

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Speaker 2: you did a real public service for the nation. I've

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Speaker 2: brought this up before in our fiscal policy. You must

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Speaker 2: be getting questions on our debt and.

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Speaker 3: Deficit every single solitary day.

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Speaker 2: Is it any different from the time of Pete Peterson?

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Speaker 2: Paul Sungas and the senator from Georgia. Is it the

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Speaker 2: same old, same old?

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Speaker 3: The questions are a little bit more. They have a

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Speaker 3: little bit more of a calamitous tone to them. Oftentimes

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Speaker 3: when we get questions, it's not just what do you

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Speaker 3: think of the high and rising burden of debt?

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Speaker 4: Or you know, how long are we going to run

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Speaker 4: deficits this big?

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Speaker 3: It's what is the tipping point? And then it's often

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Speaker 3: got to follow on, like is the dollar going to

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Speaker 3: lose its reserve currency status? Is the US going to default?

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Speaker 3: Is China gonna literally have figured oily wake up one

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Speaker 3: day and just decide to dump all of its treasury?

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Speaker 3: So there, there's a little bit more of that. Boy,

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Speaker 3: I feel like we're at a tipping point.

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Speaker 7: Toned to the questions, can we move on from the

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Speaker 7: NCAA tournament? Please please Kevin explain Pepperdine playing u c

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Speaker 7: l A back to back in Stanford and volleyball it's

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Speaker 7: like religion players.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's my favorite sport in school to follow. Is

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Speaker 1: anyone under six'?

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Speaker 7: Five?

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Speaker 1: No there only, me BUT i wasn't on the. Team

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Speaker 1: is it like.

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Speaker 2: A conduit From poonah In? Hawaii you just go to

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Speaker 2: and say we want six thumbas, kids.

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Speaker 6: Let's go Not thomas. Tallest but, no it's an Amazing

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Speaker 6: they're they're they're killing. IT I i love following that.

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Speaker 6: Sport it was beach volleyball was my favorite to. Follow, Yes,

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Speaker 6: alice the beaches.

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Speaker 7: They have Beach.

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Speaker 4: Volleyballlare we had an area called the.

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Speaker 3: Beach it was like the quad and it didn't even

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Speaker 3: have grass, though so, yeah it kind of looked like it.

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Speaker 4: Was a little.

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Speaker 1: Different. Though, YEAH i think the water In malibu is

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Better how you know this better than we've done way

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Speaker 2: too Much West coast today we Had.

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Speaker 7: Harvey NOW i Know, claramont.

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Speaker 1: There's never too Much West coast And Clara.

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Speaker 5: Broncos, baby there we.

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Speaker 1: Go Volley beach Volleyball.

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Speaker 6: Pepperdine has just consistently across over the, years that's been one,

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Speaker 6: of if not our best, SPORTS i mean in our

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Speaker 6: tournament rankings and that it's.

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Speaker 1: Amazing so that was Really, Malibu, Yes. California let me.

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Speaker 4: Explain you've got to look up a picture on.

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Speaker 1: It let me.

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Speaker 2: Let me translate this for. You and this Involves Jenny

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Speaker 2: Kreml april, Second pepperdine's PLAYING U c L a and

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Speaker 2: Volleyball april second In Western New. York you get up

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Speaker 2: and you've got a biochemistry class at eight, am and

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Speaker 2: you have to walk what's called a quarter mile west

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Speaker 2: into the wind coming in From.

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Speaker 6: Buffalo not to mention In, malibu, though you've got to

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Speaker 6: wake up and climb one hundred stairs because we call It.

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Speaker 1: Stepperdine it's.

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Speaker 4: Tough it's violins playing just for you over.

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Speaker 1: Here i'll bring out my vind your volleyball. Updates we

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Speaker 1: do it all, Here we do it.

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Speaker 2: All Kevin, gordon thank you so much for Bringing. Lizzen

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Speaker 2: thank You sonders with.

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Speaker 1: You you're both wearing.

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Speaker 2: Black Kathy jones, retiring extraordinary, career.

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Speaker 3: Amazing we will we will miss her a, lot as

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Speaker 3: our industry.

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Speaker 2: Did she did A taco tweet On President. Trump it

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Speaker 2: was totally outside, compliance.

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Speaker 4: So it.

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Speaker 1: Begins i'll put the compliance.

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Speaker 6: Pluce she did mention yesterday On twitter that this is

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Speaker 6: now her personal, account so very.

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Speaker 2: Personal we waked up From Kevin gordon as, Well Lizzie,

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Speaker 2: Saunders Kevin gordon forever At Charles schwab