1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Paul, 5 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you bring in our steam guest who 6 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: can't talk about a sixty billion dollar merger. But but 7 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: I just want to say. I mean, I know it's 8 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: all about scale, and we can talk about scale, but 9 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: the key thing for me is I need to own 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: my look. I gotta own your look. And the Botox thing, 11 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: I mean, it's getting you know, my my botox is 12 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: like Alegan stock chart not so good. So I'm on 13 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: your look. This is the botox people, the botox folks, 14 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: I mean abby V billion dollars year. But come on, 15 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: laps the fee that the consultant got to come up 16 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: with abby V buying botox maker. Can we turn on 17 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: Tobias microphone? I mean great, thank you? Okay. V stands 18 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: for life. That's the reason it's French. Really, Oh it's fresh. 19 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: That's where the consultants so black. When the Canadians go 20 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: to Chicago and play the black Hawks. Everybody from Abby 21 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: V shows up. Well, no, not necessarily be there based 22 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: in Montreal. Paul start on this and we can't talk 23 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: to Tobias about individual stocks, but we can't talk Paul 24 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: about this disease of scale. That's Tobias Leftovic City Investment 25 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: Research chief, US equity strategist. He's been there forever from 26 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: the Smith Barney days right correct, going way back. So, Tobias, 27 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: what do you make of this deal? And you know 28 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: we're seeing some you know, it's actually a pretty good 29 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: M and A year. We're seeing some big ticket items, 30 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: not as many deals as we've seen in the past. 31 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: We actually had Mark Schaeffer, co head of M and 32 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: A for City on a several weeks ago and said, 33 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: we're getting some big ticket M and A trades, not 34 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: not necessarily as many deals as we've seen in the past, 35 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: but here in a healthcare space, another round of consolidation. 36 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: Look to two things I think are impacting it. One 37 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: is the fears of what might come out of the 38 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,679 Speaker 1: legislative channel down the road in terms of pressure on 39 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: the healthcare industry. Costs of healthcare provisions, Medicare, medicator, huge 40 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 1: chunks of the government budget. And and it's going to 41 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: get worse because the aging of the baby boomers, so 42 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: unit volume growth is going to pick up in terms 43 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: of the need for health care services. The second thing is, 44 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: and I had to go look this up because I 45 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: couldn't remember it off top of my head, the Herfandel 46 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 1: Hirschman index, the idea of concentration, like that UM tends 47 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: to generate UM, this idea of better margins and things 48 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: like that. As you get concentrated industries, you tend there 49 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: aren't as many competitors to go to, and it gives 50 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: you some element of pricing power, even in an environment 51 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: where there's likely to be downward Let me translate the 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,519 Speaker 1: fancy multiple syllables of the French one there and what 53 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: don't mean is, Paul is everybody wants to be like 54 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: the cell phone business. You know, we're coming down to 55 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: where it's two and three. Catherine Man Its City Group 56 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: has led worldwide on this monopsimistic tendency of constant contentioning. 57 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: One of the other things we've noticed. We've had some 58 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: guests over the last several weeks talking about, you know, 59 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: slower growth. You better get used to it. Globally going forward. 60 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: In one of the ways you try to counteract that 61 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 1: in certain sectors is by m and a growth by acquisition. 62 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,839 Speaker 1: Is that something that you subscribed to, Especially given very 63 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: cheap funding costs right, credit spreads are really tight, companies 64 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: can go out and borrow pretty aggressively, and if the 65 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: market isn't willing to pay for equities, then companies will 66 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: buy those equities. And again they've they've been doing a 67 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: lot of buying their own stock, but they have a 68 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: lot of cash. There's still about four trillion dollars of 69 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: cash in corporate America to to kind of go out 70 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: and do things with you interrupted program website? Is everybody 71 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: using botox look like a thirty two year old supermodel 72 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: male and female? What is I mean? They all look 73 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: like they're gonna get carded at a bar tonight, Tom Rumor. 74 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: Some people use botox for migraines as well, not just 75 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: for looking better. Really, I did not know that, you 76 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: know what I mean? Am I leaking right now? So, 77 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: Tobias one of some of the I mean, when you 78 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: think about, you know what we're seeing in the market today. 79 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: One of this is a g twenty week um to 80 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: what extent. Do you think investors really should be focusing 81 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 1: on this global trade issue. It seems to really have 82 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: an outsize impact on the market significant. Look the old 83 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: G you know, the old w T O or G 84 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: A T T program of global trade UM is being disrupted. 85 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: And what I think happened in May to a great 86 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: degree was people thought a deal between the US and 87 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: China was kind of on the brink of getting done 88 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: at the end of very pril and now they pushed 89 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 1: it out to some future date, you know whatever that is, 90 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: September December. UM. I don't think anybody really expects UM 91 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: G and Trump to walk out, you know, all smiles. 92 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: We have a deal and it's done. UM. And in 93 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 1: that sense, people are worried about what the implications of 94 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: trade could be to global growth. You talked earlier about 95 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: slowing of growth, and one of the issues behind that 96 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 1: is this idea of UM bigger than neighbor type of 97 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: process of exports taking away potentially jobs from local citizens 98 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: around the world. So this populous, nativist, nationalist kind of 99 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: mindset is not unique to the U. S. It's happening 100 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: in Brazil and France and in the UK, etcetera. In Italy, 101 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: and there is a concern among governments generally about protecting 102 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: their local populations from the potential threats of outsource jobs. 103 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: So I'm you know, I'm not convinced this is necessarily 104 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: President Trump, Democrats and Republicans are aligned in terms of 105 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: pushing back on China. If you're just joining us Tobias 106 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: left City group where this he'll stay with us through 107 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: the art and we'll have a expert on alegant Evy 108 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: joining us here in a bit Tobias within G twenty, 109 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: within Osaka, within g and Trump. There's got to be 110 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: an opportunity in equity markets. What's your single best idea 111 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: in terms of sectors right now? So look, we think 112 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: they're a couple. I'm gonna I'm gonna talk about the 113 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: banks because I think they're going to go to the 114 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: bank because I think if the fattest cutting rates and 115 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: you's got a steep and they sound like a man, 116 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: and that's killed you last year, the value the value 117 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: trade hurts, um. But but don't don't take me down 118 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: the Canadians route. That's too painful. UM. But the the 119 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: the other side of it is UM that I think 120 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: is interesting in semiconductors, which have been heavily beaten up 121 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: here by the uh, you know, the trends that we've 122 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: been talking about in trade, and yet here's a group 123 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: that's not investing aggressively. KAPEX, which is usually a very 124 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: good sign for the industry valuation criteria, is actually pretty 125 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: attractive for the group. Earnings revisions have been cut so 126 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: badly that they probably bounced from here. Um and that 127 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 1: would be if you want to play my tech trade, 128 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: that would be there um. You know, we've been bullish 129 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: for a while in healthcare, so some of these M 130 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: and A trends shoes are helpful to our views there 131 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: um And again, I think there is some real value 132 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: in value. And you know, I don't joke around this, 133 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: you know, without thought that the people who haven't been 134 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: killed in value want to kill themselves at this stage 135 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: because it's been such a painful trade. And at some 136 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: point I do think there is the potential for change. 137 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: It could be a weaker doll that helps you there 138 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: uh in places like energy commodities, it could be um again, 139 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: cutting of rates and what that does The shape of 140 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: the yolk curve potentially helping the financials is also so 141 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: in a healthcare space, that's we don't hear that often. 142 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: I guess it's because of that regulatory overhang, the regulatory Uncertainly, 143 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: we're going into election psycho, which generally raises a lot 144 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: of healthcare discussion. How do you kind of put that 145 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: into your framework of healthcare? So there are two elements 146 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: health care. There two groups as a farmer in in 147 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: biotech group, and then there's also the healthcare equipment services group. 148 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: So we weren't particularly bullish on healthcare equipment services, and 149 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: then we had those Medicare for All and you have 150 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: this massive correction, right, So then we stepped up and said, okay, 151 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: we want to take advantage of some of that weakness. 152 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: Some of it's fair and some of it's probably overdone. 153 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: Interesting you know that we followed it as well. Tobias 154 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: left coach with us. What we do with Bloomberg Surveillance 155 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: is try to inform and go deeper. We've been making 156 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: jokes about botox A. It's a huge business and also 157 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,599 Speaker 1: it's a science. Paul Sweeney, we've gotten individual uh it 158 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: was serious biological chops working at Bloomberg Intelligence, and she 159 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: is truly expert on close stridium, which is in one 160 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: type really dangerous and other types makes me look thirty 161 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: nine every day. Liszt Hollow is that expert. Liz is 162 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: a senior analyst healthcare els for Bloomberg Intelligence based in London. Liz, 163 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Earlier today, Tom 164 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: circulated a chart, a five year chart I think of 165 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: Allergan stock, and it was not a pretty chart. What 166 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: is a Vy buying here? Yeah, so that it's definitely 167 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 1: not a pretty site. This company has been built up 168 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 1: through a number of acquisitions. It's a really almost interesting 169 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: business case study how they've come to where they are 170 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: and the horizon for long term growth is not very impressive, 171 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 1: so they've been looking for a solution for a while. 172 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: Management has been under a ton of pressure from investors. 173 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: So from the Allergan perspective, this is kind of the 174 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: best case scenario in our view. Avvy is picking up 175 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: a very diversified company, so we don't really see any synergies, 176 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: but it certainly would expand the opportunity into the esthetics market. 177 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: So that's botox, things like latise for eyelash lengthening, a 178 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: number of different cosmetic products that you can think about 179 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: and then also things like ophthalmology and SEE and S 180 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 1: and G I. So it's really a play to kind 181 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: of plug what will be the gap that's left by 182 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: Abby's lead asset, Humera. So if you know, you mentioned, 183 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: you know, there's not a lot of synergies yet, I 184 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: note to premium here to the closing stock price um 185 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: given with this bid. So how's the evaluation? Look here? 186 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: It seems pretty rich for a company that prospects maybe 187 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: somewhat's you know, you know, problematic. It does. We're running 188 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: the numbers right now. But right now, off the top 189 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 1: of the bat reading the press release, the ABVIA is 190 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: claiming it's about ten percent and creative to EPs, and 191 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: that seems reasonable. They're looking at two billion dollars in 192 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,719 Speaker 1: synergies by year three. That's going to be a bit 193 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: of a stretch. I mean, that kind of is just 194 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: going to be chopping R and D program. So they're 195 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: claiming that fifty of the overlap in R and D 196 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: will contribute to that two billion dollars in synergies. There 197 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: are really no synergies, so that's just gonna be saying, 198 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: you know what, this program doesn't work, scrap it? Are 199 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,439 Speaker 1: they a cosmetic company. Is Elegant really looking for the 200 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: margins of the first floor at Bloomingdale's. So they are, 201 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: But I mean it's the kind where you're going into 202 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: your doctor and you build that relationship over time, and 203 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: Elegant has done that. They have really built this business. 204 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: I mean you say Botox, people know it right, you 205 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: know it by the brand and they've they've built that 206 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: over time, and you have competitors coming in and you know, 207 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: we've done an analysis of this landscape. It is their market. 208 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: They have definitely built that. Okay, well you mentioned latise 209 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 1: and you know, I mean, I haven't gone there yet. 210 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,599 Speaker 1: I've probably to be This is a chemical off of glaucoma. 211 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: What's it do? It makes my eyelashes grow more? It does, 212 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: and it's a really interesting story. It was a side 213 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: effect scene in glaucoma trials. Wow, these patients have longer eyelashes. 214 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: You know what. Let's turn it into a product, I mean, 215 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: and that's how Elegan has worked. Where does it stand 216 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:57,079 Speaker 1: in terms of profit right now? I mean dropped to 217 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: the bottom line? Yeah, So Botox is had an interesting product. 218 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 1: There is a very high premium on it, so the 219 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: margins are pretty good for them now that they've gotten 220 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 1: their business established. I mean they have got these key 221 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: prescribers that basically are just loyal to the brand, and 222 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: it's it's just almost do you think you're talking to 223 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: It's a cash pay business as well. Right so, right 224 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 1: now the climate in pharma is all about drug price pressure, 225 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: and you don't have that in a business like this. 226 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: This is cash pay. Liz Grotalla, thank you so much 227 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: for joining us. Liz is a senior health care analyst 228 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:46,719 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence in our London office. Ambassador Hormats had 229 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: a lot to do with the economics of our State 230 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: Department under Secretary Clinton. It was a mandate of Secretary 231 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: Clinton g Relie fold economics into state and providing real leadership. 232 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: There was Heidi crebo ereticer with a Council on Foreign 233 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: Relations on economic state craft. Um, how is that economic 234 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: statecraft going? In two thousand nineteen, Heidi, we we've moved 235 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: it forward to I think a more mercantilist Elizabethan the 236 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 1: first uh economics. Um, what would you expect to see 237 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: out of a G twenty meeting, out of a G 238 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: Trump meeting? Given our new economic state craft? Well, first 239 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: of all, thanks for for inviting you this morning. This 240 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: is uh, this is not economic statecraft as previously envision 241 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: but I think you know, what we would expect to 242 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: see out of this G twenty, particularly with with President 243 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: Trump and and Jing Ping, is really kind of more 244 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: of a G two agenda on trade, and I think 245 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 1: the best we could really look for is is a ceasefire. 246 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: So you know, we've we've seen piods of escalation. Uh. 247 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,439 Speaker 1: We we obviously have the pressure on with potential three 248 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: billion in additional tariffs that Trump could move forward with. 249 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: On the Chinese side, you know, you really have an 250 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: incentive to avoid those tariffs. And you've seen a more 251 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: defiant mood in China and some non negotiables on the 252 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: table challenging their economic model. I'm not sure they particularly 253 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: trust Donald Trump. Um, they've seen what happened with the 254 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: Mexican tariffs. So I think aiming at a pause similar 255 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: to the last G twenty in Argentina would be, um, 256 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: probably the most likely outcome. Although you never really know 257 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: what to expect with President Trump, you never really know 258 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: what to expect, So kicking the can down the road 259 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: is my characterization of your analysis. Um, is that let's 260 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: assume that that happens, take us to you know, the 261 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: next step between the US and China. So the next step, 262 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know, you really do have some issues 263 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: on the table that China is not willing to to 264 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: necessarily trade away. They're not new issues, um, you know, 265 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: but they are important ones to the US. They're very 266 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: important ones to China, and so I would not woo out, uh, 267 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: several months down the road that you see President Trump 268 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: moving ahead with those tariffs. Uh. I don't think that 269 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: Heat necessarily believes that tariffs are hurting the US right now, 270 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: that they are the tool of choice. Um. I think 271 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: he watches the stock market pretty closely, so I would 272 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: not be surprised to see that to see that happen. 273 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: Although that next list, you know, is filled with with 274 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: goods that would hurt consumers, manufacturers, retailers, stuff that you know, 275 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: everybody buys at at at their stores, for forgetting their 276 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: kids ready for school in the fall. So it's really 277 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: um that next that next list is one that really 278 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: could hit the US. I think it's stronger than the last. Uh, 279 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: the last, And so how do you just take us 280 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: into the mindset of the Chinese negotiators and the leadership, 281 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: you know what can realistically they do to push this 282 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: agreement further. It sounds like they may need to take 283 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: more of a leadership role in these negotiations. So you know, 284 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese could actually try and they may decide that 285 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: they that they don't trust this president enough to do 286 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 1: a deal with him and wait him out. There's obviously 287 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: an important election, UM. So there is every possibility that 288 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: if if China is in no mood to to compromise 289 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: on its core interests UM, and they are becoming more 290 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: defined they do want to be a five G superpower, UM, 291 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: they may decide it's worth waiting to see if they 292 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: have to deal with Donald Trump after the next election. 293 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: How do Creba Retica with us with the Council on 294 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: Foreign Relations, of course, her expertise on China, her work 295 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: with Secretary Clinton years ago, but also with UH Senator 296 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: John Kerry of another time and place. How do you, 297 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm going to blind here. I don't 298 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: know your experience with our economics in Iran, but it's 299 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: certainly Senator Kerry and Secretary of State Kerry was very 300 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: much involved with trying to extricate Iran from another time 301 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: in place. What are your thoughts as you look at 302 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: the last four in five days on Iran, and particularly 303 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: with Ambassador Bolton speaking in Jerusalem just hours ago. So 304 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: I am quite concerned about Iran. I think we all 305 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: should be the um. You see escalation rather than de escalation. 306 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: You have the Secretary of State in the region you 307 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: referred to to John Bolton in the region as well. 308 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: We've seen sanctions impost thread of sanctions, and we also 309 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: have the June UM Dave that that Iran has said 310 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: that it could breach the rane and stockpile limits UM 311 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: that were agreed under the j C p o A. 312 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: So you know that is one day before the G twenty. 313 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: You have you have an opportunity at the G twenty 314 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: with other leaders who are from China, Russia, Saudi Europe 315 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 1: who are who all have concerns about this UM, particularly 316 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: because of the relation to UH to commodity flows through 317 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: the straits of hormones. Well that's fine, but what do 318 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: our European allies do. I mean, we understand some of 319 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: the responses of China. What would you presume will be 320 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 1: the European continents response if we go after Persia for good. 321 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: I mean, don't they just uniladally come in and pick 322 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: up the economics slack. So I think the way that 323 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 1: the I think that the way the sanctions have been 324 00:18:55,359 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: uh have been designed. Uh. They you know, they really 325 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: putting pressure on European companies not to not to step 326 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: into the into the breach UM. And I think, you know, 327 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 1: the offer of willing to sit down with the regime 328 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 1: from the US perspective is not you know, it is 329 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: not being taken up by by Ayatollah Hamany. He does 330 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: not want to sit down with the US. So I 331 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: think the best case right now is if we were 332 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: to see a lower level um sort of rehashing of 333 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: what the old deal looked like UM, because otherwise you know, 334 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,959 Speaker 1: you're you're you're going to see continued escalation um and uh. 335 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 1: I do think that at this point President Trump wants 336 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: to be the one to step in and do a 337 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: better deal. Okay, wonderful, how do you crible Rehdiger, thank 338 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: you so much. With the Council on Foreign Relations on 339 00:19:51,800 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 1: a Ran and of course on China, our gonder Montavali 340 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 1: has given us outstanding coverage from Tehran. Little windows little 341 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: vignettes into the people of Iran, into the political moment 342 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 1: in Iran. And she joins us now by telephone from Tehran, Golnar. 343 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: If I was to go two hundred and fifty miles 344 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: south of Tehran, there is the gorgeous city of Esfahan. 345 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: How is all this playing away from Tehran? How is 346 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: this tension between President Trump and the leadership playing in 347 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: Esfahan south of Tehran. Um, it's a good question. It's 348 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: my my mother's hometown. So you're asking the right the 349 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: right person. Tom Um. I think um given that um 350 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: Esfahan is itself, it's a it's one of the largest 351 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: metropolitan census in Iran. I think it's the third largest city. 352 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: Um Um, I would say it's it's also very middle 353 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: class city. It's a it's a more religious city than 354 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: Tehran is. It's slightly more conservative. But I think it 355 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: would be very similar to the sentiment in Tehran because 356 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 1: it's a. It's because it's a metropolitan hub, and it's 357 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 1: a huge managed that manufacturing hub. As are some of 358 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: the biggest steel and cement manufacturers. They're the biggest steel 359 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: manufacturers in the mid least. Some of those companies it's 360 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: hugely important for construction industry in the country. They are 361 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: based in the outskirts of of Esha. Football teams in 362 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: that city are named after these companies, So lots of 363 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: families that rely on these industries, and obviously, especially something 364 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: alter industry is going to feel a lot of pain 365 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 1: from from these sanctions beautifully beautifully described. If that's true 366 00:21:54,320 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: of economic sanctions, will personal sanctions against religious leaders Affectahan, Um, 367 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 1: It's very difficult to say. I doubt. I doubt it 368 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: very very much. I doubt that the sanctions on the 369 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: Citian leader will have a tangible impact on the economy. 370 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,479 Speaker 1: I think that's one reason why President law Honey was 371 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 1: mocking this decision quite severely this morning. He went as 372 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: far as to say that the White House was suthing 373 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 1: from mental disorder by by making this decision. This decision 374 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: because he said that the properties that directly come under 375 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: the Supreme Leader are very small. Obviously, you know, whether 376 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 1: whether we can verify that or not, it's a different question, um. 377 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 1: But I think in terms of tangible impact on the economy, 378 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: and if you're looking at a city like Esfahan, a 379 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: big metropolis outside of Tehran, that's quite middle class. It's 380 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: a huge tourist attraction. Probably all the cities, ancient cities 381 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 1: in Iran, Esfahan attracts the most tourism dollars and any 382 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,679 Speaker 1: other city in the world. I don't think that that 383 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 1: would have a tangible impact there. I think it's the 384 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 1: sanctions on. There are big industries, the ones that draw 385 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: in the most foreign exchange revenues for the country. UM, 386 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 1: that that are going to have the biggest, biggest effect there. 387 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: So we go. Can you give us a sense of 388 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 1: the pressure that is building within Iran to get a 389 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: deal done with the United States. UM, I don't think that, UM, 390 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: the leadership and the government here sends any pressure to 391 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 1: have negotiations with the United States because they're just not 392 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: convinced by the motivations or the motives of the United States. 393 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: And again Rahaney was very clear about this in his speech, 394 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 1: again that he used very strong terms. He said that 395 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: the decisions to sanction the foreign Minister Jabor Zarif was 396 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:03,400 Speaker 1: UM proof actually UM qualified the idea that UM, the 397 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,880 Speaker 1: Trump administration has been lying about wanting negotiations with Iran, 398 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: Because if you sanction the foreign minister, then you are 399 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: pretty much sanctioning the idea of having negotiations of talk 400 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: negotiations or talks. So I don't think the Iranian leadership 401 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: here has ever taken the idea of negotiations um seriously. 402 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: They've I think they've always felt that they were possibly 403 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: kind of um propaganda purposes to improve the optics of 404 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: the actual objectives of the Trump administration. And I also 405 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 1: think that they feel there's a lack of cohesion in 406 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 1: the policy. So Trump says one thing one day, and 407 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: then um, the State Department under Pompeo or John Bolton, 408 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: the National Security Advisor of the President, they they say 409 00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: something UM different. The tone, the tone in the tones 410 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: of their retoric is it's very, very different. We've seen 411 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: that in the past week as well, in the aftermath 412 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: of the shooting down of the drone. UM, yes, okay, 413 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 1: go now, let's leave it there. On Monta Valli. Thank 414 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 1: you so much from Tehran this morning reporting for Bloomberg. 415 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 416 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 417 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before 418 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 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