WEBVTT - Pfizer Starting U.S. Trials for Experimental Vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can also

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>only on Bloomberg Radio. It's Got a gut Check with

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<v Speaker 1>Drew Armstrong's team leader for US Healthcare for Bloomberg, leading

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<v Speaker 1>our coverage here in the United States on this working

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<v Speaker 1>closely with colleagues all around the world. Drew joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York. So, Drew, there's so

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<v Speaker 1>much to talk about. And I guess where I would

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<v Speaker 1>start is what's top of mind for you? What's the

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<v Speaker 1>most important thing you think we need to know since

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<v Speaker 1>you have of you over all of this, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the thing that everybody is watching right now

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<v Speaker 1>is you know what I would almost think about is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the second days of um, experimenting with how

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<v Speaker 1>we control this disease. You know, we in in February

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<v Speaker 1>and March, we went through a period of saying, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to put in place all of these measures,

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<v Speaker 1>let's see if they work to stop to control the

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<v Speaker 1>spread of this thing. And now we're entering this phase

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<v Speaker 1>of reopening gradually now that we've learned a great deal

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<v Speaker 1>more about the disease, and saying what's going to happen next.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think both of these decisions were made it

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<v Speaker 1>at the times with a great deal of uncertainty, without

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<v Speaker 1>perfect information, UM. And you know, entering into the unknown

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<v Speaker 1>has been sort of the theme of this entire entire outbreak. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're kind of watching a a great, a giant

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<v Speaker 1>set of experiments, UM, public health experiments being played out

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States right now with uncertain outcomes. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's the one thing in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the race for a vaccine where we've actually see some

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<v Speaker 1>global cooperation and sharing of information to try and to

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<v Speaker 1>try and get something as soon as possible. I do wonder, though, Drew,

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<v Speaker 1>what worries you the most the time is going to

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<v Speaker 1>take for a vaccine. What about this internal US government

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<v Speaker 1>projection that shows the nation's coronavirus outbreak, you know, accelerating

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<v Speaker 1>by June to more than two thousand new cases per day.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it the idea that you know, we get a

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<v Speaker 1>second wave here and it's really tough. What worries you

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<v Speaker 1>the most? You know, on this day here we are

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<v Speaker 1>May five, We've gone through a lot, But I just

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<v Speaker 1>would the first thing I want to do is actually

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<v Speaker 1>touch on that projection. I think, you know, I know

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<v Speaker 1>that was widely reported on yesterday. We you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>wrote about it as well in the in the White

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<v Speaker 1>House and some of the health agencies that whose names

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<v Speaker 1>on it, and it appeared to be involved that we're

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<v Speaker 1>not particularly helpful in creating um and providing any context

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<v Speaker 1>around you know, what was what assumptions went into that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, into that projection, and what actually was going

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<v Speaker 1>on there. Um. We have subsequently been told that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>those numbers were attached to you know, if there was

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<v Speaker 1>no control at all on spread, no mitigation and so

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<v Speaker 1>on and so forth. So I think, you know, there's

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<v Speaker 1>some big scary numbers there. But I think some big

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<v Speaker 1>scary numbers that probably don't reflect reality on the ground. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we are going to continue to obviously see

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<v Speaker 1>new cases and see um thousands of additional deaths around

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<v Speaker 1>the country. But I think in terms of the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred thousand new cases a day figure, I think

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<v Speaker 1>not a lot of people are currently projecting that to

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<v Speaker 1>be to be to be totally clear, And I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's important to to emphasize that, just because I know

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<v Speaker 1>that did catch a lot of people's attention. UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>moving on to your question about some of the some

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<v Speaker 1>of the vaccine work, UM. You know, I think there

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<v Speaker 1>are great, great hopes, UM, that that this effort will

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<v Speaker 1>be successful, UM, and that some of the drug companies

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<v Speaker 1>are working on this m on their own will be successful.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, there is there is not a long

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<v Speaker 1>history UM, for any history in the world of being

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<v Speaker 1>able to move move that quickly. UM. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>some of the hope is that we get therapeutic options.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, drugs are effectively treating the disease and the

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<v Speaker 1>severe patients who need it, not you know, the mild

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<v Speaker 1>people who don't. UM. That alleviate some of that burden

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<v Speaker 1>and reduce some of the risk to society and to

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<v Speaker 1>the health system. So Drew, I want to go back

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<v Speaker 1>to something you said at the beginning, because I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's really important this this sort of new phase we're

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<v Speaker 1>living in, which is which feels like living with this

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<v Speaker 1>for for some amount of time. And you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>touched on the vaccines as you look across this and

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<v Speaker 1>the reopening and you know, the sort of staggered reopening

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<v Speaker 1>that we see depending on where you're looking at in

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<v Speaker 1>the country. Ultimately, ultimately we are Bloomberg. We we look

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<v Speaker 1>at businesses in the economy. What do you see out

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<v Speaker 1>there that that you think is most important for us

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<v Speaker 1>to understand in terms of what we're learning about the

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<v Speaker 1>economic aspects of this. You know, I think you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when you talk to people and you and you read

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<v Speaker 1>some of the reports coming in from another country, people

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<v Speaker 1>really and I figure out a new way of doing business.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you look at some of the poll numbers

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<v Speaker 1>where people think, you know, there is public concern about

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<v Speaker 1>lifting measures too soon. And if there's public concerned about

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<v Speaker 1>lifting measures too soon, those same people are all the

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<v Speaker 1>folks who are likely to say, well, you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna go out to a restaurant just yet,

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<v Speaker 1>even if it's open um or maybe um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>even if they open the movie theaters back up, I

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<v Speaker 1>won't be the first person in there. I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the ways that I've been thinking about this

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<v Speaker 1>is that we you know that there's there's this this

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time in advance of this, we're kind

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<v Speaker 1>of operating on the default of duty. Really have to

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<v Speaker 1>close everything down, you know, Really the right thing to

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<v Speaker 1>do is this, you know. I think the default was

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<v Speaker 1>towards not doing anything, and it was a surprise when

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<v Speaker 1>we did. We've not switched, i think societally for a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people into a default mode where it's, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we've really let you to open things back up them

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<v Speaker 1>I really going to go back out and do all

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<v Speaker 1>the things that I was. I think a few people

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<v Speaker 1>anticipated that big of a shift in mindset um to

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<v Speaker 1>happen thatically and sport to be um that in scott

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<v Speaker 1>Now it could be that in three weeks, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the sun is out and shining, people want only set

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<v Speaker 1>the house and being cooped up. I think we've all

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<v Speaker 1>seen people wanting to get out and be social um

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<v Speaker 1>and uh, and be out of their house and and

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<v Speaker 1>do some of these things. People. I think it very

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<v Speaker 1>much remains to be seeing how people behave in all

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<v Speaker 1>of this. We are kind of in an unprecedented time

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<v Speaker 1>and I think all of those things are are are

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<v Speaker 1>our factory that flows through to you know, continuely demand

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<v Speaker 1>and what people want and how they act. Well. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it'll be day by day and I think if

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<v Speaker 1>numbers start to go up in cases start to go up,

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<v Speaker 1>We're all going to be like, oh okay, we can't

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<v Speaker 1>play around with this. It's such a good point to

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<v Speaker 1>arm Strong, team leader for US Health here for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you. I love that framing because he's exactly right

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<v Speaker 1>that there's this sense and we get this from the

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<v Speaker 1>government's like people want to get out and then people

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<v Speaker 1>are like, I'm not so sure. You know, I am

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<v Speaker 1>such an amazing It's a really interesting way to frame

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<v Speaker 1>it in to think about it, and I hadn't thought

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<v Speaker 1>about it that distilled down so our thanks to drum story.

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<v Speaker 1>They can build it, they can open it, but will

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<v Speaker 1>they come exactly exactly. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well, as

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<v Speaker 1>we alluded to just a few minutes ago, even amid

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<v Speaker 1>all of this, we could have a new Stock Exchange.

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<v Speaker 1>New Exchange put together by some names that you've heard of.

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<v Speaker 1>They've gotten the okay, but there is this whole matter

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<v Speaker 1>of trying to start a new business and a tech

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<v Speaker 1>heavy business and a people intensive business amid all of this.

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<v Speaker 1>Lenand Win has the story she's finding supporter for Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Johinius on the phone from New York City. So, Lenan,

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<v Speaker 1>this is something that's been in the works for a while.

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<v Speaker 1>M E m X. I believe it's called or do

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<v Speaker 1>they say, is there something cool that mems okay? I

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<v Speaker 1>figured that was probably um so tell us if that's cool. Well, Jason,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the challenges of writing this story was that

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<v Speaker 1>there are so many household names that I can't include

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<v Speaker 1>all of them in in the actual story. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>your Bank of America, Golden Sex, JP, Morgan on the

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<v Speaker 1>banking side, and then you've got Fidelity Trade on on

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of a retail side. So we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of huge financial market players that are invested in

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<v Speaker 1>this firm, Virtue Citadel Securities as well. So we've got

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<v Speaker 1>a really big spectrum of different types of players and

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<v Speaker 1>they're all kind of getting in on this new exchange

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems that the exchange has been able to

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<v Speaker 1>do a lot of work from home. A lot of

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<v Speaker 1>what they do is cloud based, and so they've been

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<v Speaker 1>able to write a lot of the code even though

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<v Speaker 1>they haven't really been able to go physically to the

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<v Speaker 1>servers during the coronavirus pandemic. So there's been some delay,

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<v Speaker 1>but it seems like things are starting to pick up again.

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<v Speaker 1>Remind us why they want their own exchange. So a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of these players have been complaining for a long

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<v Speaker 1>time about the high fees that are charged by the

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<v Speaker 1>incoming exchanges. We're talking the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAC,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've been particularly angry about the high price of

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<v Speaker 1>market data um and that sounds like a very sort

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<v Speaker 1>of routine thing, but we're you're talking about firms that

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<v Speaker 1>trade at increasingly high speeds, you know, at the blink

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<v Speaker 1>of an eye. The amount of data that they need

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<v Speaker 1>is very very high, and they get charged high fees

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<v Speaker 1>for that. So they've been very very upset about that,

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<v Speaker 1>and so upset that they decided to start their own exchange.

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<v Speaker 1>And so, what's a realistic timeline for this to get

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<v Speaker 1>up and running given everything that's happening in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>N So, Jonathan Keill know the CEO, and I spoke

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<v Speaker 1>this morning and he says they're still very aggressively trying

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<v Speaker 1>to meet that three Q on target that they've reset

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<v Speaker 1>for themselves, which means hopefully starting to test the systems

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<v Speaker 1>this quarter with their participants, you know, doing some of

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<v Speaker 1>the technology testing and platforms and connecting to the system

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<v Speaker 1>and then eventually going for a third quarter launch. So

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<v Speaker 1>that sounds aggressive, but again they're working super hard and

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<v Speaker 1>they've got the backing of some very big investors making

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<v Speaker 1>this Who wins who loses? How does this change kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the investment world, the trading world as we know

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<v Speaker 1>it or I have known it for a long time

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<v Speaker 1>lean in so this is a big question. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think what the exchange Memics is trying to do is

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<v Speaker 1>to put pressure on the incumbents to reduce their fees. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there is a potential for this exchange to

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<v Speaker 1>win because they've got so many big backers and obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>um they're going to be competing on price, and so

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<v Speaker 1>they're hoping to drive down prices across the board. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's possible that the retail investors and any other investors

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<v Speaker 1>who are in the equity markets will will benefit if

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<v Speaker 1>they are this exchange is successful in driving down prices

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<v Speaker 1>because ultimately these are the sorts of fees that end

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<v Speaker 1>up in some form of fashion with both institutional and

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, retail investors to write that's right, and

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<v Speaker 1>so um. You know, the the equity market is a

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<v Speaker 1>very complex place. But one of the key sticking points

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<v Speaker 1>has been that in order to make money in this market,

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<v Speaker 1>in order to sort of make the maximum profit at

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<v Speaker 1>lowest costs, you have to drive down the fees. And

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<v Speaker 1>if your institution is being charged very high fees, then

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<v Speaker 1>you just can't do that. So everyone is really trying to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, push the market to zero here right where,

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<v Speaker 1>and and even a fraction of whether it's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the margins have gotten so tight, and I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>so many of these trades, right, so it makes a difference. Potentially,

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<v Speaker 1>It certainly does. And um, yes, margins are very tight,

0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.400
<v Speaker 1>and that has led to a pretty fractious environment in

0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:19.680
<v Speaker 1>the equity markets, and it's caused many players to say,

0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:22.440
<v Speaker 1>forget it, we're going off on our own right exactly,

0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:24.240
<v Speaker 1>all right, Well, it's an important story. One of the

0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.200
<v Speaker 1>most read not surprisingly on the terminal, given who our

0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:30.720
<v Speaker 1>audiences and given as you say, Lennan, all the big

0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:34.120
<v Speaker 1>names involved in this. Everybody, it feels like, is trying

0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.439
<v Speaker 1>to figure out this new world order. And it does

0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:38.400
<v Speaker 1>take me back here, and I think you're alluding to this,

0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.199
<v Speaker 1>you know, even the race to zero when you think

0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:44.560
<v Speaker 1>about commissions and fees with the big brokerage houses, bit

0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.280
<v Speaker 1>suab or uh any of the other big names. All Right,

0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:50.320
<v Speaker 1>Lennon Win, thank you so much. Finding a supporter for

0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:54.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg jinus on the phone from New York City. Yeah,

0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 1>looking forward to seeing how that plays, because I know

0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.320
<v Speaker 1>they've had some dates on the calendar for this year.

0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.880
<v Speaker 1>I think you're trying it all out and and getting

0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>it going. So we'll see whether or not the virus

0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:06.480
<v Speaker 1>somehow um prevents them from doing that, or as they said,

0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:08.160
<v Speaker 1>everybody's been working at home and they've had time to

0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:11.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of maybe move ahead on things. This is Bloomberg

0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:15.880
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:18.560
<v Speaker 1>the virus pandemic has forced the US government to certainly

0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:20.640
<v Speaker 1>take on a much bigger role in the US economy.

0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 1>It's also kicked off conversations and debates about a new

0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:27.720
<v Speaker 1>American industrial policy. Sean Donnin covers this in Bloomberg Business

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.559
<v Speaker 1>Week magazine. The story online at Bloomberg Dot comment on

0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 1>newsstands later on this week, shown of course Bloomberg New

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 1>Senior Trade reporter. He's on the phone from Maryland. Also

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 1>with us is Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Weber on

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Brooklyn. So this is a story, right,

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:47.800
<v Speaker 1>we are at an interesting time certainly in our political history,

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.000
<v Speaker 1>that's right. And you know, one of the things that

0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.320
<v Speaker 1>I think we've been talking about a lot, just at

0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 1>least as a staff, it's sort of like, what are

0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.440
<v Speaker 1>the ways that this is going to start to change things?

0:12:57.559 --> 0:13:00.240
<v Speaker 1>And and some of these things are like ones we

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, might not change for the best, and other

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:04.719
<v Speaker 1>ones are are I think you get to a more

0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:09.719
<v Speaker 1>strategic and in some cases almost a nationalistic kind of perspective.

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's where Sean came in with this idea.

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>He kind of raised his hand and said, have we

0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 1>have we thought about industrial policy? And like how America's

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 1>the industrial policy might change out of all this, and

0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.319
<v Speaker 1>that let him down the rabbit hole. Um, Sean where where?

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 1>What did you find as you started to think and

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 1>report this article up? Yeah, So, I mean I've been

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>covering the trade wards for the last couple of years,

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 1>and if if you think about that, that's been really

0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:38.560
<v Speaker 1>about defense, putting up tariffs, trying to defend sectors in

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.680
<v Speaker 1>the American economy. And one of the things that we've

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:44.160
<v Speaker 1>seen U as a result of this pandemic is people

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 1>really thinking about how do you encourage more production at

0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:48.959
<v Speaker 1>home and how do you do that. Well, in the past,

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 1>that's been through this thing industrial policy, which for a

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of Republicans and a lot of the the kind

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 1>of free marketers of free marketeers uh in in in

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:01.880
<v Speaker 1>the US has been in the taboo, you know, we

0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 1>we don't like in the US to encourage or to

0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:10.040
<v Speaker 1>think that we're picking winners and losers in the private sector.

0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 1>That's certainly been the rhetoric that has come out of

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.560
<v Speaker 1>the Republican Party for decades. Well, now when we're having

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:18.600
<v Speaker 1>this conversation about what the U. S economy should look like,

0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.400
<v Speaker 1>how prepared it should be to respond to a pandemic,

0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 1>where we should be producing things like masks and other

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 1>productive equipment or ventilators we're starting to get into the

0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>realm of having a real conversation about how government should

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 1>direct production, industrial production, and and industrial policy. It's worth

0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>saying that, you know, America has been here before. H

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 1>During the Cold War, we certainly saw ramping up of

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 1>the military industrial complex. We know that the space race

0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 1>gave us all sorts of great private sector products. We

0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.440
<v Speaker 1>know that the GPS uh that is in our car

0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 1>comes out of, in part, a need for the U. S.

0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>Military to have like runic navigation tools uh, and so on.

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.160
<v Speaker 1>The question now though in the selection year, is is

0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.920
<v Speaker 1>where are we going to go next? So today, and

0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the one of the things that

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 1>you really focused on in the article is about rare earths,

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>which obviously has become sort of the topic of in

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.560
<v Speaker 1>part because of the trade war, because we realized how

0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 1>much of this is actually coming from China. So what

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>did you discover when you started to talk to people

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 1>in that space. Yeah, so rare earth is this? Uh,

0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 1>there's seventeen of them. Uh. There are these minerals that

0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>are using everything from smartphones to ballistic missiles. Uh. And

0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:37.040
<v Speaker 1>there's only one mine in the United States right now

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 1>that's up and running and that produces these things, and

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that's the Mountain Pass mine in California and the Mohaba Desert. Uh.

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 1>It actually though, has to send what it produces to

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:53.480
<v Speaker 1>China to be refined into these actual usable minerals. Uh

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and then they're sent back to to the U. S.

0:15:56.280 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>And UH. The owner of that mind is now saying,

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>you know what, I need some help from the government,

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:05.800
<v Speaker 1>and I need the government to do more to encourage

0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 1>the use of this stuff by big domestic manufacturers and

0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>that's companies like Tesla, Apple and so on, so that

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 1>we can get production here in the United States and

0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:22.160
<v Speaker 1>it makes sense economically. And Seohn, I love that you

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>name check uh, some well known names in here to

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:29.720
<v Speaker 1>frame this debate from a political perspective, because Peter Navarro

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 1>obviously has come to the four in a number of

0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 1>issues that you were intimately familiar with of the past

0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.120
<v Speaker 1>couple of years when it comes to trade. But we're

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:43.160
<v Speaker 1>also looking at some different generations and maybe different political

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 1>philosophies within the GOP that are all sort of circling

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.000
<v Speaker 1>around this. Help us understand that piece of it. Yeah, Look,

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean we are all focused on how Donald Trump

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 1>has changed the economic conversation on trade and uh even

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>the role of government and its relationship it with business

0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>from a Republican Party context. But what's really interesting is

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.520
<v Speaker 1>is what's going to come after Donald Trump? Even if

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:09.399
<v Speaker 1>he's elected to a second term, there will be an

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.959
<v Speaker 1>after Donald Trump. And there is this new generation of

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:17.120
<v Speaker 1>rising stars in the Republican Party, people like Marco Rubio,

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:21.800
<v Speaker 1>Josh Holly from Missouri, Tom Cotton who's also in the Senate,

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>who all have a more of an economic nationalist event,

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:30.359
<v Speaker 1>and they're into this thing of an industrial policy. In fact,

0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>even before the current crisis, Marco Rubio was giving speeches

0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:38.400
<v Speaker 1>laying out a vision of a new American industrial policy

0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>and arguing that that is actually a kind of great

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:45.040
<v Speaker 1>American tradition and that's something that the Republican Party should embrace.

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 1>So Sean, where is corporate America? Where is actually the

0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>global corporate world on all of this, Because any CEO

0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.479
<v Speaker 1>that I talked to the plays in the global world.

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 1>They are concerned about increased nationalism and focus on your

0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:01.159
<v Speaker 1>local market, although they're doing more a supply chains in

0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>their local markets and more production. But I'm just curious,

0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.000
<v Speaker 1>where does the corporate world fit into all of this. Look,

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:08.880
<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't think the business world has ever

0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.760
<v Speaker 1>liked the idea of the government telling it what to do,

0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think that has changed in any way.

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.440
<v Speaker 1>But the business world is kind of stuck right now

0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 1>because there is this this crisis going on, and in

0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:24.119
<v Speaker 1>the crisis, people start getting back to some pretty basic

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:28.119
<v Speaker 1>instincts and they like to see things like domestic production.

0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.919
<v Speaker 1>And I think a lot of people in America UH

0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:35.360
<v Speaker 1>today would probably not have minded a stronger hand from

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.400
<v Speaker 1>government in encouraging more domestic production or at least more

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 1>domestic stock piling of personal protective equipment, which has been

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.440
<v Speaker 1>so vital in dealing with this pandemic. We'll see where

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.879
<v Speaker 1>this all shakes out after the election. It's clear that

0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:51.080
<v Speaker 1>this is gonna be a big topic of discussion between

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:56.240
<v Speaker 1>now November. Whoever wins that race UH in November, is

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:59.040
<v Speaker 1>going to come in early next year into the White House,

0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:00.400
<v Speaker 1>and this is one of the big thing are gonna

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:04.960
<v Speaker 1>have to wrestle with. Well, and interesting on a day

0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 1>where the President is out in Arizona at Honeywell, I

0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:12.920
<v Speaker 1>mean this fits the narrative in some ways, right John, Yeah,

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:15.400
<v Speaker 1>And look and That's the interesting part of this conversation

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.200
<v Speaker 1>that maybe we don't talk enough about where we all

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:22.199
<v Speaker 1>have had this this this fear that too much of uh,

0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, that we are too reliant here in the

0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 1>United States on China and overseas production and and these

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.400
<v Speaker 1>global supply chains. But one of the really remarkable stories

0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.200
<v Speaker 1>of the last six weeks or so has been how

0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>the US manufacturing sector has really ramped things up. You know,

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.840
<v Speaker 1>we know the big automakers are now producing ventilators, Ralph

0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 1>Lauren is doing a personal protective equipment and and and

0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 1>the hospital scrubs, uh, you know, in the Honeywell, which

0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.560
<v Speaker 1>is one of the big producers of these nine masks,

0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.120
<v Speaker 1>has been ramping up production as well. So, I mean,

0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 1>we have seen in the last six weeks American in

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:04.400
<v Speaker 1>street really jump on this and and take advantage and

0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:06.359
<v Speaker 1>come to the fort. Would be interesting to see what

0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:08.720
<v Speaker 1>we learned from that forward when it comes to draft

0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:10.520
<v Speaker 1>and Pulse. I feel like it will be in the

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.359
<v Speaker 1>history books and the economic books going forward. It's like

0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:15.880
<v Speaker 1>we're at that time, all right, Sean Donn and thank

0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:19.000
<v Speaker 1>you so much. Our thanks to Joel Webber as well

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 1>brom A Journal. But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,

0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:30.600
<v Speaker 1>who's going to drive home? Honey? Please, I'll do the

0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:39.399
<v Speaker 1>riding drivels me. I want to drive, Just drive baby.

0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:51.520
<v Speaker 1>The question trying this is the drive to the globe. Thanks,

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:55.760
<v Speaker 1>we'll drive us down on Bloomberg Radio or in his

0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 1>time for the drive to the close. Jeff Chang is

0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:00.280
<v Speaker 1>with US co founder and chief operating Office. They're in

0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>charge of product development at cdo E Vest. They've got

0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>over a billion dollars in assets under management. On the

0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:08.800
<v Speaker 1>phone from mcclaim, Virginia, Jeff, nice to have you here

0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>with us on this Tuesday. So tell us a little

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.240
<v Speaker 1>bit about your world. How you guys a bit impacted.

0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 1>I hope you're safe, your family is safe, your employees

0:21:16.720 --> 0:21:21.159
<v Speaker 1>are doing it. Okay, thanks for having me. Yeah, I

0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:24.320
<v Speaker 1>mean we've seen as far as our world. You know,

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.160
<v Speaker 1>in this market, advisors are still nervous, so they're they're

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:32.439
<v Speaker 1>looking for for downside protection. Uh. So as far as

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.840
<v Speaker 1>we've seen, um, you know, they're they're looking for for hedges.

0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:39.160
<v Speaker 1>So we've seen record flows into our buffer protect strategy.

0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:42.160
<v Speaker 1>So um, like you mentioned before, over a billion dollars

0:21:42.200 --> 0:21:45.400
<v Speaker 1>a year to date. So these target outcomes. Strategies really

0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:48.639
<v Speaker 1>allow investors to invest in the market but with built

0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:52.240
<v Speaker 1>in buffers to protect against downside losses. UM. So, as

0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:54.680
<v Speaker 1>an example, our strategy seek to buffer let's say the

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:58.440
<v Speaker 1>first ten percent of downside loss of the smp UH

0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:01.119
<v Speaker 1>and and as an example, if they have some was

0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:04.359
<v Speaker 1>download it's UH, the strategy will only seek to be

0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.359
<v Speaker 1>down five percent. But the thing is what it was

0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 1>critical for us UH in this market is that with

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:14.159
<v Speaker 1>these types of strategies investors were still able to have

0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.280
<v Speaker 1>upside growth potential up to a cap UH. And we

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.720
<v Speaker 1>have seen, you know how devastating it is in the

0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:22.760
<v Speaker 1>past for investors to go to cash during downturns like

0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:25.120
<v Speaker 1>this and miss the upside recoveries and days like this,

0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:29.160
<v Speaker 1>And so how does it work? I mean, it helps

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:31.600
<v Speaker 1>us understand the logistics of you know, how you end

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 1>up sort of picking this and choosing a strategy and

0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:38.720
<v Speaker 1>choosing elements of this strategy, especially in the market as

0:22:38.800 --> 0:22:43.440
<v Speaker 1>volatile as this, Jeff Sure, so investors have a lot

0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:45.760
<v Speaker 1>of choices as far as you know down type risk

0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 1>management UM And I think how investors actually choose our

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.639
<v Speaker 1>types of strategies because if you really look at the

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>world of risk management, they really have kind of really

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:58.960
<v Speaker 1>largely three kind of options. One is, you know, diversification

0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 1>what we saw in Q one, which was really challenged

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:05.159
<v Speaker 1>or largely didn't work because broad equity markets suffered. You know,

0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:07.560
<v Speaker 1>we had huge drops across all indexes and we even

0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 1>saw investment grade bonds start to lose value even uh

0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:13.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, it wasn't until the Federal Reserve that came

0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.960
<v Speaker 1>in and started buying bonds did we see uh the

0:23:15.960 --> 0:23:20.000
<v Speaker 1>seor recovery. So um, that's the first way, um, and

0:23:20.040 --> 0:23:23.840
<v Speaker 1>that's dependent upon uh the idea that you know, as

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:25.720
<v Speaker 1>the a falls as it be goes up. And what

0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:28.080
<v Speaker 1>we've seen during times of crisis is that you know,

0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:31.439
<v Speaker 1>those correlations tend to approach one. Well, let me just

0:23:31.520 --> 0:23:33.800
<v Speaker 1>jump in for a second because I know you're explaining

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:36.200
<v Speaker 1>your strategy, but I do wonder, you know, right, you've

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.359
<v Speaker 1>got a target outcome, right, so you you've got a

0:23:38.400 --> 0:23:42.320
<v Speaker 1>return profile, and that's what investors bank on um and

0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:44.840
<v Speaker 1>risk is you know, there's a certain level of risk

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:47.000
<v Speaker 1>into all of this. But I do wonder in a

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:50.600
<v Speaker 1>market like we've seen, you know, how are those investments

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:53.800
<v Speaker 1>in those targets impacted by the extreme volatility that we've

0:23:53.800 --> 0:23:56.120
<v Speaker 1>seen in the market specifically this year, and I think

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:58.440
<v Speaker 1>safe to say that many folks think we're not out

0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.280
<v Speaker 1>of the woods yet. When it comes to that, how

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:02.640
<v Speaker 1>do how do these types of funds, these target funds

0:24:02.640 --> 0:24:07.399
<v Speaker 1>that you guys have, specifically Jeff um do in extreme volatility?

0:24:08.600 --> 0:24:11.680
<v Speaker 1>That's great questions. So it actually, uh, in the case

0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:14.640
<v Speaker 1>of extreme volatility, the strategies can tend to benefit um

0:24:14.680 --> 0:24:18.560
<v Speaker 1>given that we actually get our downside protection uh through

0:24:18.560 --> 0:24:22.520
<v Speaker 1>exchange traded options. So as volatility starts to rise, it

0:24:22.600 --> 0:24:27.400
<v Speaker 1>does provide enough an opportunity to for for more upside potential. UM.

0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:32.600
<v Speaker 1>So in this case, uh, you know, during times of crisis,

0:24:32.640 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>we actually for for the purpose of getting upside Actually

0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 1>in some in some cases welcome that volatility. Interesting, did

0:24:42.760 --> 0:24:45.199
<v Speaker 1>explain that part to me? You you welcome the volatility?

0:24:45.200 --> 0:24:50.200
<v Speaker 1>Why the ideas because we're buying let's say, UM, let's

0:24:50.200 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 1>say take our example of our our strategy. We we

0:24:52.840 --> 0:24:55.720
<v Speaker 1>we have let's say, at ten percent protection, uh. In

0:24:56.040 --> 0:24:59.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of our strategies, we fund that protection by selling,

0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 1>say upside potential in this case by selling a cover call.

0:25:04.119 --> 0:25:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Now with increase in volatility, that that premium starts to

0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:11.760
<v Speaker 1>generate more as potential generate more premium as volatility increases.

0:25:12.119 --> 0:25:15.399
<v Speaker 1>That means that we could actually have more upside potentials

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:18.520
<v Speaker 1>by selling a higher strike call, uh in cases of

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:20.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, during periods of higher ball. But does that

0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:23.000
<v Speaker 1>but does that also mean to the downside you're hurt

0:25:23.000 --> 0:25:27.400
<v Speaker 1>even more as a result to it in this case

0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 1>as we're also we we get our protection by buying

0:25:31.280 --> 0:25:33.679
<v Speaker 1>a put as well as selling a put. So it

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 1>can impact, but there's somewhat mitigation because we're both long

0:25:37.560 --> 0:25:42.959
<v Speaker 1>and short options on on the downside protection piece and

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:47.720
<v Speaker 1>so so that's a no. So that's a no. It

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:53.000
<v Speaker 1>is um but there's obviously more than just i'd say

0:25:53.080 --> 0:25:55.679
<v Speaker 1>the level of volatility that can affect the price of options.

0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:58.360
<v Speaker 1>That can also you know, more complex thoughts such such

0:25:58.400 --> 0:26:01.240
<v Speaker 1>as skew. So I today you know, not not a

0:26:01.320 --> 0:26:03.680
<v Speaker 1>die hard uh no, because there it's a little bit

0:26:03.680 --> 0:26:07.639
<v Speaker 1>more complex than that. So let me change gears a

0:26:07.640 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 1>little bit. As you look across what we've heard from

0:26:11.560 --> 0:26:15.959
<v Speaker 1>companies and this earning season it's been and we started

0:26:15.960 --> 0:26:18.320
<v Speaker 1>the show on this note, it's been one of the

0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 1>strangest earning seasons to date in part because there's this

0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 1>effectively no guidance at least beyond UH the next quarter,

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>certainly for the year. How does that affect your outlook?

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>And what do you make of that? Yeah, I mean

0:26:34.440 --> 0:26:37.679
<v Speaker 1>if you looked at UH because that we have this

0:26:37.880 --> 0:26:41.760
<v Speaker 1>unprecedented economic and corporate UM, you know, earning impacts from

0:26:41.800 --> 0:26:45.119
<v Speaker 1>these from these lockdowns, you'll start to see you know,

0:26:45.200 --> 0:26:50.160
<v Speaker 1>your traditional UM I'd say, you know names that UH

0:26:50.280 --> 0:26:52.960
<v Speaker 1>that you would expect to have lower volatility, not be

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:56.400
<v Speaker 1>insulated from you know, UH from the impacts of let's

0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:58.919
<v Speaker 1>say that the lockdown and instructions of supply chain. So

0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:01.880
<v Speaker 1>what does that mean? That means that buying actual UH

0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:06.119
<v Speaker 1>insurance are actually hedging UH on your positions, can actually

0:27:06.400 --> 0:27:08.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, help as far as like you know, in

0:27:08.480 --> 0:27:10.359
<v Speaker 1>our earning cues. Because the idea is that in this

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:12.359
<v Speaker 1>earning season, I think a lot of investors are actually

0:27:12.359 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 1>more focused maybe not so much on the earnings, but

0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:18.919
<v Speaker 1>focusing on financial strength and the stability as opposed to earnings.

0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Because I think investors looking at for for companies with

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 1>strong balance sheets, positive cash flows. What are some of

0:27:25.280 --> 0:27:28.479
<v Speaker 1>the firms that may be able to take advantage of

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the recovery and are more sensitive to the reopening as

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>opposed to looking at you know, looking at earnings, because

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>because we're really trying to consider the survivability at this

0:27:37.080 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>point right right right, and that you know, you get

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:43.159
<v Speaker 1>into the kind of what these target outcome investments are

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:45.359
<v Speaker 1>all about. Hey, listen, um, Jeff, nice to catch some

0:27:45.400 --> 0:27:47.760
<v Speaker 1>time with you. Jeff Chang, he's co founder managing director

0:27:47.840 --> 0:27:51.320
<v Speaker 1>at cbo E vest on the phone from McLean Virginia.

0:27:51.400 --> 0:27:54.399
<v Speaker 1>But you know, Jason just got less than five minutes

0:27:54.400 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 1>to go, and you know, we start taking a leg down.

0:27:56.800 --> 0:27:57.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if you saw that. I mean, the

0:27:57.960 --> 0:28:01.399
<v Speaker 1>headline just spiked on the balloom, the market side blog

0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:03.960
<v Speaker 1>picking up that, you know, these tensions with China. We

0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:09.760
<v Speaker 1>talked about this yesterday with with Indy Brown. I should

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:13.880
<v Speaker 1>point out that, you know, this was a situation between

0:28:13.960 --> 0:28:19.399
<v Speaker 1>these two countries. The rhetoric has a real effect on

0:28:20.480 --> 0:28:23.200
<v Speaker 1>market sentiment and it really Yeah, and listen, there's a

0:28:23.200 --> 0:28:25.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of stuff going on. We continue to see headlines

0:28:25.160 --> 0:28:29.680
<v Speaker 1>about companies Airbnb cutting its staff. Um, they just continue

0:28:29.680 --> 0:28:32.119
<v Speaker 1>to cross and that is going to make that economic

0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:35.160
<v Speaker 1>recovery on this On the other side of this, much tougher.

0:28:35.440 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe

0:28:38.160 --> 0:28:41.120
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0:28:41.280 --> 0:28:43.680
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0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:46.120
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