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Speaker 1: Now walking to Lake AGAs Live. It is Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: August thirtieth, Fear of Our Lord, twenty twenty two. This

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Speaker 1: is the time of week when we're headed into week one,

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Speaker 1: where my excitement starts to shift a little bit to fear,

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Speaker 1: not for myself, but for you guys, because I know

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Speaker 1: some of your hearts are about to be broken and

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Speaker 1: you're not ready for it, because you're favored in week

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Speaker 1: one and you've already looked past week one, and you

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Speaker 1: have no business doing that with week one. We will

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Speaker 1: discuss and dissect the night we're jampacked. We're high a top,

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Speaker 1: just a glowing downtown Nashville, Tennessee, beautiful day to day.

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Speaker 1: Where are those upsets coming? I'm not talking about necessarily

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Speaker 1: Florida over Utah. We're not talking about that field goal

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Speaker 1: spread nonsense, although there's one game I'm gonna touch on

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Speaker 1: that kind of resembles that I'm talking about, the Georgia

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Speaker 1: State over South Carolina out of nowhere, elbow off the

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Speaker 1: top rope. See anybody out there by the way, zennyone

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Speaker 1: just able to recide off the top of their head.

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Speaker 1: The fact that South Carolina is only favored by twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half at home against Georgia State. So yes,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about that in just a second. I got

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Speaker 1: several more Week one predictions. I got three more games

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Speaker 1: that we have to break down. The Clemson quarterback situation

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Speaker 1: I have been fascinated by since spring, and back in spring,

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Speaker 1: Dabo Swiney was disagreeing with us. Not on the show

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Speaker 1: per se, we couldn't book him, but in his media

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Speaker 1: availability he was disagreeing. It sounds like he's coming a

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Speaker 1: little more around to our way of thinking, and our

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Speaker 1: way of thinking is you're going to see cade Club

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Speaker 1: Nick sooner rather than later, not just as a backup,

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Speaker 1: but maybe even as a starting quarterback at Clemson. All

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Speaker 1: that plus a Rama Noodle Express update and tonight, Actually

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Speaker 1: the staff doesn't even know I'm going to do this.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the show, I am going to

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Speaker 1: introduce you, or at least I'm going to tell you

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Speaker 1: about a brand new product that we're going to roll

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Speaker 1: out on this channel, probably this weekend as games are

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Speaker 1: going on. That doesn't necessarily involve you seeing me, but

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Speaker 1: it does involve you seeing something that may be very

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Speaker 1: financially beneficial to you. The sports better I'll leave that

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Speaker 1: for the end of the show. They're watching us in Brownwood, Texas, Columbia,

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Speaker 1: South Carolina, Frankfurt, Germany, probably Kentucky too, and noon in Georgia.

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Speaker 1: I can't stress this enough. A lot of you have

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Speaker 1: already heated, took heed of headed took head of my

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Speaker 1: advice on the Instagram channel, platform or channel or page,

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Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: that thing. If you don't have an account, go start one,

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Speaker 1: just so you can follow my Instagram page at late

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Speaker 1: kick Josh. Here's why there's stuff that I give you

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Speaker 1: there specifically on Friday nights and then on game days

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Speaker 1: on Saturday during the fall. You can't get anywhere else.

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Speaker 1: You can't get it on Twitter, you can't get it

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Speaker 1: on the YouTube channel, you can't get it in podcast.

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Speaker 1: Here's what happens. It's very simple. Starting this week and

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Speaker 1: every week through the National Championship Game, we will be

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Speaker 1: at whatever we decide to go to as the biggest

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Speaker 1: game of the week. It is the every given Saturday tour.

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Speaker 1: We're starting in Arkansas this Saturday, Cincinnati, Arkansas. I will

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Speaker 1: have so much behind the scenes stuff for you guys.

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Speaker 1: You will not see it anywhere else, no one gets

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Speaker 1: the access that we do, so I'm very much looking

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Speaker 1: forward to that. But if you are following me on

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Speaker 1: Instagram at late Kick Josh, you just keep updating that

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Speaker 1: story throughout the day. I'll post anywhere between twenty and

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Speaker 1: forty pieces of content that will never be seen anywhere else,

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Speaker 1: And it's just a fascinating behind the curtain look that

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Speaker 1: we're blessed to have and I want you to have it.

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Speaker 1: So hey, if you don't care about that, then don't follow.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just saying there's a lot of stuff that

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Speaker 1: we put on there, not to mention Friday Night Lions

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Speaker 1: is back. That's Instagram Live only. We don't do that

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Speaker 1: anywhere else. So there's a big value proposition for you

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Speaker 1: to be following there. Okay, there's also a big value

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Speaker 1: proposition for you to just be careful. Please be careful.

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Speaker 1: I want all of you to have a good time

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Speaker 1: this weekend, I really do, and I want all of

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Speaker 1: you to be winners, but you can't be You're a

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Speaker 1: winner for watching the show, but some of you are

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Speaker 1: just flat out going to be losers because of the

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Speaker 1: team you're pulling for, and some of you know it.

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Speaker 1: And you're ready for it, others are not ready for it.

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Speaker 1: That's where I want to dive intnight, because upsets are

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Speaker 1: coming as sure as the winter is coming, So too

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Speaker 1: are upsets, and I don't think that everyone has braced themselves.

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Speaker 1: We call this on the show the Castaway theory. By

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Speaker 1: the way, we try and invoke as many metaphors that

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Speaker 1: tie into the movie Castaway as possible, because I think

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Speaker 1: it really ties into life as a college football fan.

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Speaker 1: For example, think about Tom Hanks. All he's got is

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Speaker 1: Wilson to talk to for years, and he's out there

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Speaker 1: on that island somewhere in the Pacific and he starts

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Speaker 1: to build that raft. Now, I remember when I watched

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Speaker 1: that movie, how sturdy that raft looked. It's got the

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Speaker 1: best wood on the island. I mean, it's tied together

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Speaker 1: with VHS tape. What more adhesive could you possibly need?

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Speaker 1: And it looks like it's ready until it goes out

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Speaker 1: onto the open sea. Then you find out what the

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Speaker 1: ocean does to man made rafts. It batters it pretty thoroughly,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it. That's kind of the way the season treats

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Speaker 1: a lot of your expectations. Your preview magazine smells so

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Speaker 1: good when you crack them open for the first time,

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Speaker 1: and that roster, it looks so pristine, and those www

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Speaker 1: occasional l more ws than l's that you drew in

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Speaker 1: the blanks on those magazines. It just looks so neat

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Speaker 1: and tidy. And then the season happens. You've got twenty

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Speaker 1: two moving pieces every play, sometimes one hundred and eighty

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Speaker 1: to maybe two hundred of them a game, if overtime

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Speaker 1: is included. You've got balls that are shaped, weird, that

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Speaker 1: bounce all kinds of different ways. You got a right

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Speaker 1: guard not fully healthy, you don't know about you gotta

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Speaker 1: will winebacker, not focused, missing his gap, and all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden results that shouldn't happen according to what your

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Speaker 1: paper says happen, And it's going to happen this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: And I'm looking across the board and I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: ask myself, as I failingly do every year, where is

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Speaker 1: the upset coming? It's easy to know it's coming. Where

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Speaker 1: is it going to come? That's the big question. Now

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Speaker 1: there's one game, a couple of them actually that we

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Speaker 1: have broken down and are going to break down tonight.

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Speaker 1: So I wanted to start with those, but then I

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Speaker 1: wanted to go a little bit further off the radar.

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Speaker 1: So Cincinnati at Arkansas gets more fascinating by the day.

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Speaker 1: That's the game that we're going to be at Saturday.

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Speaker 1: And yet I don't know a single person who has

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Speaker 1: picked Cincinnati to win this game. I mean, I had

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Speaker 1: not heard a single person, even in our comment section,

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Speaker 1: that has picked Cincinnati and then put together a well articulated,

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Speaker 1: logic based argument. It's easy to just say Cincinnati because

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Speaker 1: you know nothing's on the line if you say it

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Speaker 1: and you're wrong, But do you really believe it? Have

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Speaker 1: any of you put money on Cincinnati money line? Have

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Speaker 1: you seen any of the national types because I haven't.

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Speaker 1: I haven't picked them to win. I haven't seen anyone

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Speaker 1: picking them to win. And the line is under a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: This thing's in fatful. Do you understand what's being disseminated

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Speaker 1: there from odds makers? And that means that they're playing

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Speaker 1: this thing in Atlanta. A field goal probably is the

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Speaker 1: line on this thing. And that's with Desmond Ritter and

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Speaker 1: the entire secondary gone for Cincinnati, and you've got all

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Speaker 1: this returning hype and all these returning players and Kendall

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Speaker 1: Brown's and kJ Jefferson year two together, Sam Pittman, what

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Speaker 1: most of these things have been said by me, And

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Speaker 1: the line is what is it right now? Jesse six?

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Speaker 1: It's under a touchdown? So is that where the upset comes?

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Speaker 1: And if it happens, how big an upset is that?

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Speaker 1: I think it would be painted as a huge upset nationally,

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Speaker 1: and yet your odds board right there is telling you, no,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a mild upset. That's what it would be. Categorically,

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Speaker 1: it would be a mild upset. I picked Arkansas to win.

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Speaker 1: I picked Arkansas to cover, but I told you our

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Speaker 1: model has I think Arkansas minus seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: so we're not that far off of what the Vegas

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Speaker 1: number is. It's just gonna be a really competitive game.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati's a really good team. I have told you a

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Speaker 1: couple of times this week. There are players whose names

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Speaker 1: you don't know on that team yet that are plenty

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Speaker 1: good enough to play in any Power five league. It's

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Speaker 1: just that because they're not a national name brand type program,

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Speaker 1: you don't know them. That doesn't mean they can't play.

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Speaker 1: It just means you don't know they can play, and

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Speaker 1: you'll find out Saturday when you watch this game. Yeah

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Speaker 1: they lost a bunch of pieces. Yeah they got some

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Speaker 1: pieces that you have not heard of yet to fill

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Speaker 1: those voids. The other one that we're going to break

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Speaker 1: down later tonight in a few minutes, actually, so I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to dive too deep into it, is Penn

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Speaker 1: State at Purdue. It's a very short line. Penn State's

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Speaker 1: favored by three and a half at most places right now,

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Speaker 1: and Purdue in many ways stands the biggest opportunity to

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Speaker 1: springboard off of a Week one result, because Purdue plays

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Speaker 1: their toughest game in Week one at least until maybe

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Speaker 1: way later in the year. And that's Penn State at home.

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Speaker 1: Look at the rest of Purdue schedule, look at what

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Speaker 1: they have down the road. They go to Wisconsin, that's

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Speaker 1: not until October twenty second, that's the next time they

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Speaker 1: would play a ranked opponent. We have Penn State power

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Speaker 1: rated top ten. The AP doesn't have them ranked. And

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Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about kind of the way we

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Speaker 1: differ in just a few minutes. But do you know

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Speaker 1: what kind of pressure is on the Penn State program

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Speaker 1: talked about it many times. Two of their first three

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Speaker 1: games are on the road, this one two weeks later

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Speaker 1: at Auburn. This game, this Penn State Purdue game, will

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Speaker 1: have big time and every given Saturday tour ramifications attached

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Speaker 1: to it. And I'm sure that James Franklin's feeling that pressure,

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Speaker 1: by the way, and well he should, because we showed

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Speaker 1: up to the Auburn game last year and we probably,

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Speaker 1: truth be told, were the driving factor that pushed them

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Speaker 1: over the top and got that win. But hey, if

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Speaker 1: they lose this game, purdues set up beautifully in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten West. But also if Penn State loses this game,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of like the raft that looks great on shore.

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Speaker 1: All the rafts you've ever seen built look great on shore.

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Speaker 1: You take them out into the open ocean, and the

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Speaker 1: waves and the ocean and the tides do what those

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Speaker 1: sorts of things do. What if Purdue just wins. What

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Speaker 1: IF's thirty one to thirty and they win, and man,

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Speaker 1: Penn State's offensive lines not what it should be and

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Speaker 1: they didn't run the ball for more than one hundred

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Speaker 1: yards with any individual back there, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: the same ugly trends from last year carry over to

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Speaker 1: this year. I'm gonna break the game down in just

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Speaker 1: a second. I'm just saying, how many people are out

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Speaker 1: there picking Purdue. Not a whole lot. Some I've seen some,

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Speaker 1: not a whole lot. Now I want to go a

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Speaker 1: little off the radar. I just want you to be

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Speaker 1: heads up and I'm not picking any of these. I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what our model thinks in second, I'm not

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Speaker 1: picking any of these. I just want it to be

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Speaker 1: acknowledged you shouldn't be overlooking these. Central Michigan plays Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State in Week one. That is the Jim mcilwaine led

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan Chippewas or Chippewa's further north you go, I'm

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Speaker 1: from West central Georgia. There is a hard Waws on

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Speaker 1: the end of Central Michigan's mascot for us good pass rush,

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Speaker 1: which you probably don't know about because you have a

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Speaker 1: life and you don't have time to watch Central Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Really good secondary which also you probably don't know about

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Speaker 1: because you have a life and don't have time to

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Speaker 1: watch Central Michigan. They have an experienced quarterback. And also

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Speaker 1: there's this entire defensive coordinator situation at Oklahoma State. You

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Speaker 1: know who was there, Jim Knowles he's gone to Columbus Ohio.

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Speaker 1: Now does the country know Jesse. I don't have a

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Speaker 1: good feel for this, colin I don't have a good

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Speaker 1: feel for this. How many people out there are aware

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Speaker 1: that Derrick Mason, by way of Auburn and by way

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Speaker 1: of Vanderbilt before that, is now the defensive coordinator at

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. I don't know if a whole lot of

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Speaker 1: you have been paying attention to that. There are some

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Speaker 1: people in the coaching industry, as much as they respect

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Speaker 1: Mike Gundhy, that think, ooh, he just lost a really

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Speaker 1: integral part of that team. And here's the thing, Central

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Speaker 1: Michigan can limit your possessions. Possessions will be the name

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Speaker 1: of the game here. So how many of them do

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Speaker 1: they get? And also twenty two our model likes Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 1: They paint Oklahoma State in the model they the model

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Speaker 1: paints Oklahoma State minus twenty five. So our our model

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Speaker 1: likes Oklahoma State. I just want to put it out there.

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan has some facets of that team that could

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Speaker 1: make this game interesting to watch. NC State in South

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Speaker 1: Carolina I find in very similar positions going into week one.

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Speaker 1: Let me talk about NC State for a second. Here's

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Speaker 1: what you probably know about them. They got Devin Leary back,

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Speaker 1: they're really good defensively, they won nine games last year,

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Speaker 1: and they could win the ACC. Right, All that checks out.

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Speaker 1: What you probably don't know is anything about East Carolina.

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Speaker 1: But see NC State opens the road at East Carolina

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Speaker 1: in just a few days. The spread is eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half at most places. And so I look at

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Speaker 1: this one and I wonder, how would it happen? How

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Speaker 1: would the upset happen. You've also with a bunch of

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Speaker 1: these closer than they should be kind of spreads in

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Speaker 1: week one. You normally always have a veteran presence at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: You normally always have a decent stable of running backs.

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Speaker 1: East Carolina checks both of these boxes. NC State is

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Speaker 1: probably going to move up and down the field fairly

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Speaker 1: easily between the twenties. Where this could turn is if

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Speaker 1: they get down the red zone and they have to

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Speaker 1: settle for threes instead of sevens. That's how East Carolina

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Speaker 1: sort of lulls you into a false sense of security.

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Speaker 1: You've watched that game happen a million times before, where

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Speaker 1: someone's moving the ball at will. Think about Bama Clemson

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen title game, Bama's moving the ball up and

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Speaker 1: down the field on Clemson. They cannot convert for the

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Speaker 1: life of themselves when they get in the red zone

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Speaker 1: and they get blown out, and after the game you're

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Speaker 1: asking yourself, but they were moving the ball, so well,

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Speaker 1: how did this happen? What happened? By design? There are

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Speaker 1: no illusion there. I guarantee you there's no illusion in

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Speaker 1: the East Carolina coaching staff that I will stone them.

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna stone them. But when they get down

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Speaker 1: in the red zone, if you're opportunistic enough and you

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Speaker 1: can harness that home energy, which by the way, they

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Speaker 1: will happen. They hate NC State in Greenville with the

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Speaker 1: passion of one hundred white hot suns, and if they

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Speaker 1: can harness that and make it a fourth quarter game,

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Speaker 1: our model thinks the numbers right. So our model paints

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Speaker 1: in North Carolina winning the thing by about eleven or

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Speaker 1: twelve points. They got it to do. You're looking at

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Speaker 1: the schedule there, Charleston Southern next week, Texas Tech the

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Speaker 1: week after that, Yukon the week after that, and then

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Speaker 1: they go too Clemson, and most of you are not

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Speaker 1: even making an appointment to watch NC State until that

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Speaker 1: December or not December October first date against Clemson. So

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Speaker 1: let's just let's keep them on our radar Saturday and

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Speaker 1: speak of the game Cocks whatever they're calling themselves up

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Speaker 1: there these days. Georgia State comes into Columbia Saturday. I

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Speaker 1: think this game Saturday. I gotta be careful here because

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Speaker 1: we like South Carolina. I'm not picking an upset, don't

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Speaker 1: worry about it. But look what I am doing. You

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Speaker 1: see me picking up my hand here. Got a little callous,

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Speaker 1: had a good day on inclined bench, but it did

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Speaker 1: contribute to the callous. And I'm picking at it because

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Speaker 1: it really makes me uneasy that South Carolina has all

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Speaker 1: this energy behind the program, and everyone's talking about that

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Speaker 1: trip they're about to make to Arkansas in week two,

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Speaker 1: and then they got Georgia coming in there in week three,

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Speaker 1: and are they going to be two and one? Are

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Speaker 1: they going to be one and one? They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: three and zero, and no one in the world is

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Speaker 1: talking about the fact that they're less than a two

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Speaker 1: touchdown favorite at home against Georgia State in week one.

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Speaker 1: Here's what you always should think about Georgia State. You

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Speaker 1: should think they're probably better than I expect, because they're

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Speaker 1: probably littered with former SEC guys who for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: did workout where they originally committed, and so they just

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Speaker 1: they found a home in Atlanta. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: athlete at Georgia State has. Jacksonville State's the same way

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Speaker 1: Troy in some years is the same way these Southern

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Speaker 1: G five level teams. You always have to be careful

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Speaker 1: with them. It's kind of the feel you should have

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Speaker 1: when you play a service academy, but for different reasons,

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Speaker 1: you never take those teams lightly. If you're in Alabama

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Speaker 1: or if you're in Georgia, if you're in these kind

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Speaker 1: of areas where a lot of the fallback options for

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Speaker 1: Power five level talent that doesn't work out as you

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Speaker 1: then occasionally you can have a really good roster. They've

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Speaker 1: got one. Or Georgia State they got a bunch of

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Speaker 1: all Sun Belt type players on defense that are back,

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Speaker 1: and we got a whole bunch of newness offensively at

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Speaker 1: South Carolina. So Spencer Rattler is the new quarterback. There.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of hope, there should be, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of energy behind the program. There should be. What

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Speaker 1: I wonder as I look at our model put South

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Speaker 1: Carolina at minus fifteen is how does this play out?

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you how I think it will. This is

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Speaker 1: the kind of game where it's close first quarter, Georgia

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Speaker 1: State may even have an early leave for all I know,

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Speaker 1: close at halftime, still competitive third quarter, and then through

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Speaker 1: some chain of events, South Carolina gets themselves some margin

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, and you end up if you

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Speaker 1: just surf box scores at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: you see, oh, South Carolina one. They may have even

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Speaker 1: covered good for them. But yet if you watch the

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Speaker 1: whole game, you tell that buddy who just surfs box scores,

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Speaker 1: that was way closer than that final score makes it. Look.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you there's some work still to be done

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Speaker 1: at South Carolina. And that's okay. There's gonna be work

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Speaker 1: to be done for everybody, but that one. I've got

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Speaker 1: my eye on Kentucky, the number two odds on favorite

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Speaker 1: in the SEC East preseason. They are a sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite at home against Miami of Ohio.

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Speaker 1: And also, I mean, Mississippi State got a royal screw

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Speaker 1: job at Memphis last year, so they played them in

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Speaker 1: Week one in Starkville. The Bulldogs, who we've got power

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Speaker 1: rated number twenty in the preseason. They are a fifteen

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Speaker 1: point favorite. Heartbreak is inevitable and I don't really even

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Speaker 1: know what you guys yourselves can do to avoid it.

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Speaker 1: But I just want you to be on guard, be excited,

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Speaker 1: but be alert. That's how we should go into Week one.

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Speaker 1: Here's what else you should be looking for free stuff

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Speaker 1: because I was on the horn with Academy Sports and

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Speaker 1: Outdoors today. In fact, I've got tracking information. I won't

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Speaker 1: bother to pull it up. I could pull it up

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Speaker 1: right here in my email as I welcome everyone watching live.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you like the video. I've got tracking information

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Speaker 1: that tells me we have a horde. And you know

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Speaker 1: how rarely I use that word. A horde of new

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Speaker 1: Academy gift cards en route to Nashville, Tennessee. They will

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Speaker 1: be here by tomorrow if FedEx comes through, and I

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Speaker 1: will be able to take them on the road with

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Speaker 1: me starting in Week one in Fayetteville and throughout the

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Speaker 1: National Championship Game this year. So you know the drill.

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Speaker 1: A lot of you benefited from this last year. I

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Speaker 1: don't hide when I'm in these cities. I'm out and

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Speaker 1: about and I got pockets full of these Academy gift cards.

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Speaker 1: If you see me, don't run up to me and

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Speaker 1: just slap me on the back of the head, but

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Speaker 1: feel free to approach me. I've got them, I'm ready

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Speaker 1: to give them, and they are for you, not for me.

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Speaker 1: In fact, it would be pretty unethical if I were

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Speaker 1: to use these for myself, and believe me, I have not,

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Speaker 1: so these are for you. Academy Sports and Outdoors are

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Speaker 1: exclusive partner. Starting this Sunday, our show will look different

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Speaker 1: because of Academy Sports and Outdoors. We're really excited about that.

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Speaker 1: I'll explain all that Sunday, but until then, it's time

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Speaker 1: to gear up. Every one of you in some shape,

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Speaker 1: form or fashion. You're either going to games or you're

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Speaker 1: watching games. You need, whether you know it or not,

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Speaker 1: something they have at Academy Sports and Outdoors, and until

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Speaker 1: you've been there, you really don't even know what all

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Speaker 1: they have. So either go to Academy Sports and Outdoors

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Speaker 1: and person or go to Academy dot com. But make

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Speaker 1: sure you go and support our exclusive partner, our friend

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Speaker 1: and your friend. Thank you, thank you for making the

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Speaker 1: show free, because that's on them. That's not on us.

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Speaker 1: Let's break down some games. Thursday night's going to be

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Speaker 1: a great night. We don't have a show Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: That's how big Thursday Night is. There are two must

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Speaker 1: see games. One of them is at eight o'clock Eastern

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Speaker 1: time on Fox. It is Penn State at Purdue. This

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Speaker 1: one's going to be really exciting, ton of pressure. You've

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Speaker 1: got a sleeper team in one division, You've kind of

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Speaker 1: got a sleeper team in another division. This is the

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Speaker 1: this is the wrong lower. So I'm just gonna rerack

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Speaker 1: this whole thing. It's probably on me, Colin, It's probably

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Speaker 1: on me. So here's what I'm gonna do. If you're

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Speaker 1: watching live, just ignore all this. If you're watching the replay,

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Speaker 1: you'll never know this happened. Three two one Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: We do not have a show, and that is because

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Speaker 1: we've got two must see games. One of them is

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Speaker 1: eight o'clock Eastern. That's the kick. The game is Penn

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Speaker 1: State at Purdue. Penn State is a short favorite here,

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Speaker 1: but a favorite of about three and a half points.

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Speaker 1: We get these kind of games every year where you've

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Speaker 1: got one style versus another side, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: the styles clashing sorts of things. And the whole question

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Speaker 1: in this game is paper cut versus sledgehammer. What's it

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Speaker 1: going to be? Because both of them can kill you technically,

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Speaker 1: but it's normally the guy holding the sledgehammer that really

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Speaker 1: gets to decide. Now, if he doesn't take care of business,

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't use that sledgehammer properly, paper cuts, they

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Speaker 1: can take you down. Perdue could paper cut you to death.

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Speaker 1: Penn State can sledgehammer you to death. We get to

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Speaker 1: find out which style, and it's not always a one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent win factor for either side. We get to

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Speaker 1: find out which style works out this Thursday night. Here's

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Speaker 1: what we know, at least we think we know. I

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Speaker 1: think I know Penn State may have the best secondary

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Speaker 1: that produces all season, which is noteworthy because we know

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Speaker 1: what style of play Perdue is going to employ. Here's

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Speaker 1: why that is very very important. There's some good secondaries

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Speaker 1: out there that Purdue can victimize. But the higher caliber

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Speaker 1: of play you have in your secondary, the more you

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Speaker 1: can turn other defense's concerns into your opportunity. See a

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Speaker 1: lot of defenses out there when they know how many

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Speaker 1: times they're going to have to defend the pass against Purdue,

427
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 1: they get nervous because they don't think they stack up

428
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 1: against it favorably. Penn State stacks up favorably. Not only that,

429
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: but they get opportunity because the more times you put

430
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: the ball in the air against a good secondary like

431
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 1: Penn State has, the more opportunity they have to pick

432
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 1: it off to actually score, to generate points defensively, This

433
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: to me is where this game could turn. By the way,

434
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 1: Thursday night, we can talk about Sean Clifford, we talk

435
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 1: about that hopefully upgraded Penn State running game all you

436
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: want to, their defense could generate points or at very

437
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: least they could generate positive field position. So ball in

438
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 1: the air a ton that's inevitable. How much can that

439
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 1: Penn State secondary capitalize on it? And now, obviously how

440
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: much pressure can they generate up front defensively. The second

441
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 1: thing I think I know is I think I know

442
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: Purdue believes they can make Sean Clifford have to win

443
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: the game for Penn State. And there is a reason

444
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: for them to feel that way. And what I mean,

445
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 1: of course, anyone who watched Penn State last year, or

446
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 1: anyone who's watched this show for any length of time

447
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,479
Speaker 1: understands they were woeful on the ground, one of at

448
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: the Power five level the worst rushing attacks last year.

449
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: They had injury, so there's an explanation for it. But

450
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 1: the stats are what the stats are. In this case,

451
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: the numbers do not lie to you. They are telling

452
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: you the truth. They're painting an accurate picture. There was

453
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: not a single game where an individual Penn State player

454
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: rushed for one hundred and more yards. That will change

455
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: very quickly this year of that, I am certain will

456
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: it be this game. That's what Purdue is banking no on,

457
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: and they're banking that they can get that guy, Sean Clifford,

458
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: into enough obvious passing downs to where if that guy

459
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: comes into our house and beats us, given this team's

460
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: track record, we've got to tip our cap. But what

461
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: we're not going to let him do is we're not

462
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: going to let him put him in third and threes.

463
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: Third and two is where the entire playbook is at

464
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 1: their disposal. We've got to tilt the field our way

465
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 1: one way or the other, and we're gonna make Sean

466
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: Clifford do it. So they think they can do that.

467
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: Now now here is the million dollar question that's sort

468
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 1: of that force of wills. That's that clash of styles.

469
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 1: Because Penn State, the entire spring, the entire summer, the

470
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 1: entire fall has been built around upgrading offensive line. They've

471
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: been very careful, have they talked about it around there,

472
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: James Franklin chief among them. And it's been built around

473
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: enhancing talent in the backfield. And I believe they've done

474
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: that definitively. Now they've got to put it on display

475
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: because they believe talking about what Purdue believes, Penn State

476
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: believes it's really irrelevant because their personnel will dictate that

477
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: they have the advantage along the lines of scrimmage. Their

478
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 1: personnel in the backfield will dictate that they have the

479
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: advantage there, and they believe Sean Clifford and I would

480
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 1: agree with this sentiment. They believe he gives them a

481
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: balanced enough attack offensively where you can't sell out one

482
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: way or the other if you're purdued. Now, I would

483
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 1: happen to believe that last sentiment. But this is all

484
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 1: on paper, like they're going to play at Thursday night,

485
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: because you've got to go prove it. Here's what I

486
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 1: expect to see. I expect a very hot produced start.

487
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: One of the real, real good coaches at scripting those

488
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: first ten or fifteen is Jeff Brohm. They are experts

489
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,959
Speaker 1: at harnessing that home environment. You've seen it if you've

490
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 1: watched Big Ten football for any length of time. I

491
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 1: expect a fast, hot start from Purdue. You could see

492
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: heads swimming for the first few minutes of that game,

493
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: at least for Penn State defensively. But at last I

494
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 1: think they'll settle in, and then I think that ground

495
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: game will start to show signs that there will be

496
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 1: improvement this year in that facet of Penn State's offense.

497
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: I think that Purdue is plenty good enough to trade

498
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 1: shots with them. Where I think this will turn is

499
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: I think that Penn State's defensive ability to score points

500
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: or at least generate negative plays, and that run game

501
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 1: are tailor made for taking this over in the fourth quarter.

502
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 1: Here's what the model thinks. Let's take a look at

503
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: what Vegas thinks in conjunction with our model. As you've

504
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: seen on the bottom of the screen, Penn State is

505
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite. And I've told

506
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: you for a while, if I were betting this game

507
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 1: with my gut, I would be all over Penn State.

508
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: I have a good feel about it, but we specifically

509
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 1: engineered this model to remove that because that's how you

510
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 1: end up being a fifty percent better. So what the

511
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,360
Speaker 1: model thinks is Penn State minus four and a half.

512
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: So it does lean Nitney lyons. But that model takes

513
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 1: my gut and says, no, shut up. This is a

514
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 1: competitive game, and what the data says, at least the

515
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: way you've constructed it is lean slightly Penn State. If

516
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: someone makes you pick it in a pool, pit Pen State.

517
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: But you're not betting your money on this, So I'm

518
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: not betting any money on this. This is not a

519
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: rom Noodle express play. But we are taking Penn State.

520
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: My personal feel is they'll win the thing by a

521
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,959
Speaker 1: touchdown or more, but that's not what we base our

522
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: strategy around here on. We basic it on what the

523
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: model says, cause the model is a lot better than me.

524
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 1: So Penn State does win. Penn State does cover very

525
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 1: competitive game. Speaking of competitive, my do you know what

526
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 1: this post it says? No, you don't, because I got

527
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 1: to turn the wrong way this post it is an

528
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: update on our Saint Jeu D's children's cancer research auction.

529
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: We've never done one of these before, but the company

530
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: came to me a few weeks ago and said, would

531
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: you be willing to do this? And I said, of course. So.

532
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: The charity, which one hundred percent of the proceeds will

533
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: go to, is Saint Jude's Cancer Research at specifically helping

534
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: children there. So we're all about that. Every one of

535
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: you has been touched by that in some shape, form

536
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: or fashion. We have too, so we're helping them out.

537
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: What's on the line A thirty minute zoom chat with me.

538
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 1: That's it. Nothing off limits except removal of clothing. And

539
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: the only reason I had to agree to that is

540
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: for legal reasons. Otherwise it's for a good cause. I'm

541
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: down for pretty much anything, but thirty minutes probably could

542
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: go longer if the conversation's nice. Right now, as of

543
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 1: seven twenty six pm Central Standard Time on this Tuesday night,

544
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: do you know what this number is up to? I

545
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: challenged you to get it over one thousand dollars Sunday night.

546
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: It is now at twelve hundred and twenty five dollars

547
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: and we've still got three days left. So I texted

548
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: direct Colin and I said, we are terrible at setting

549
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 1: our goals too low. On this show, we always fly

550
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: past them, and you have flown past this. So there

551
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: is a link in the show description right now, if

552
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: you're watching the live show, there is a link here.

553
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: I've tweeted it out several times. Can we get this

554
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: over two thousand, especially since you know the money's not

555
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,199
Speaker 1: going to me, it's going to Saint Jude. I think

556
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: someone out there is. I think someone's up to the challenge.

557
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: So two thousand, that's the new challenge. Two thousand, that's

558
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: where I want to get. We are lapping everyone at

559
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: the company, though, so hats off there. We are getting

560
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: margin on the rest of the company. I don't really

561
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,360
Speaker 1: even think they want to be competitive on this anymore.

562
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: But good for you, guys, really really good cause there

563
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 1: all right, let's move on here. I appreciate you being

564
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 1: tuned in. Make sure you like the video because most

565
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: of you haven't yet. It's free, so like the video.

566
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: The Clemson quarterback situation is interesting that you knew in spring,

567
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: in fact, that you probably knew when you saw dj

568
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: uyangli lay under achieved last year and them signed k Klubnick,

569
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: a five star quarterback, and you may have thought to yourself,

570
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: will he take the job out right during spring? No,

571
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: that was never realistic. But what we did get to

572
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: hear are whispers from Clemson during the spring, and we

573
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: all knew that was leading towards the season eventually. And

574
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: the whispers in the spring were k Klubnick's too good

575
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: to keep off the field. Now, you did not hear

576
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: that from Dabos Twenny. You didn't hear it from Streeter

577
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: the new offensive coordinator. No, of course you didn't. It

578
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: was spring and you don't get a whole lot of access.

579
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: Then summer comes around, and then fall camp comes around,

580
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the tones just slightly start

581
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: to change, but the folks on the ground around Clemson

582
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: majorly start to change their tune from this could happen

583
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: to this is probably gonna happen, not a matter of if,

584
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: but more a matter of when. And that thing that

585
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: they're talking about is a quarterback change. And so we

586
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 1: arrive at week one. Now, for those of you unfamiliar

587
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: with Clemson schedule, they played Georgia Tech on Monday Night,

588
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: which means you get to watch your team whether it

589
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: be on Thursday or Saturday or Sunday, you get all

590
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 1: of your obligations out of the way and you get

591
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: to celebrate Labor Day in style. And then you come

592
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: home and what do you have. You got a big

593
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: acc match up there in Mercedes Benz Stadium, by the way,

594
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: You're not playing this at Grant Field, and you've got

595
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: this question that will start to be answered, and that

596
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: is who is the answer long term at quarterback this

597
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: year for Clemson. The tune seems to have changed. My

598
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: take in the spring was eventually it's going to be

599
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: k Club next team for a combination of reasons. One,

600
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: I think he's that good. Number Two, it is very

601
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: hard for me to envision a quantum leap in production

602
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: from DJ in year two. Now, it's happened before, so

603
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: I'm playing the percentages there that it doesn't happen again.

604
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 1: I just think a lot of the problems he had

605
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: last year were not the kind that I think are correctible,

606
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: at least correctable to the point where you're going to

607
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: better than Kay Clubnick. Now that doesn't mean Kay Clubnick

608
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: is their go to option. The moment he steps on campus.

609
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 1: He's a true freshman, so there's a lot of a

610
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: learning curve there. I want to visit some of the

611
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: quotes most recently and I want to compare them with

612
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: what we heard in the spring. So Daboswiney had a

613
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 1: very interesting quote. This is within the last week, not

614
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: spring quote. DJ is the starter and he's earned that.

615
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: If that changes, I guess everybody will know it. But

616
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 1: our plan is for DJ to have an amazing season

617
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: and for Kaid to get as much playing time as

618
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: possible because he brings some special gifts to the table

619
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: that will all be game by game. It loosened a lot,

620
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: The phraseology loosened a lot. Brandon Streeter, the offensive coordinator,

621
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 1: kind of similar said, DJ's our guy right now. But

622
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 1: kid Klubnick is definitely going to play. Mind you, it's

623
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: not week six. They have not teen it up yet.

624
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 1: They have not played a meaningful down of football yet

625
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: for Clemson this year. This kid's never started a game,

626
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: played a down in college, and that's what they're saying

627
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: about him already. Now. This song makes perfect sense if

628
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: you know how to read the sheet music. The music

629
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: is telling you Cave Klubnick's eventually going to be the

630
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: starting quarterback this year clems in unless either a miracle happens,

631
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: and dj Uyangola LA has made quantum leaps and improvement

632
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: that I don't think they've seen in practice to be

633
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 1: blunt or there's injury, in which case none of us

634
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: could have seen that coming. So when will that happen? Well,

635
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: I think there's a tendency Colin, if you could throw

636
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: out their schedule for a second, let me show you

637
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: what I mean here. There's probably going to be a

638
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,479
Speaker 1: tendency for some people to go to Clemson schedule and

639
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: you automatically think to yourself, Oh, this will never manifest

640
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: itself until they play a really good team. Do they

641
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: play one in Week one against Georgia Tech? Nah, Furman

642
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: in week two now Louisiana Tech. That's not the way

643
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 1: it works, guys. That's not the way this will work,

644
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: because if you'll remember last year, it didn't take facing

645
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: top ten competition to expose some of the flaws in

646
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: that offense, nor will it this year if the flo

647
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: are still there. So let me paint your little scenario.

648
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: It's Monday night, it's Labor Day evening. You're mildly to

649
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: moderately sunburnt. You've watched so much football over the span

650
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: of the seventy two hours prior, and there's Clemson versus

651
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. Clemson could be up thirty five to nothing

652
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: at the half and all's well. Or there's this other

653
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: scenario where it's thirteen to nine at the half and

654
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 1: dj Uyangilala is like five for fourteen with seventy two

655
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: yards passing in one turnover already. And what are people saying?

656
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: Because this is not twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty one,

657
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: it was we got to ride or die with him.

658
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: It's twenty twenty two, and you know you've got a stud,

659
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: a true freshman stud, but a stud in kid Klubnick.

660
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: This is going to happen. If it's not in week one,

661
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: it is my belief it's eventually gonna happen. And that

662
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 1: time's gonna come and Dabos Swineye is gonna have to

663
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: make a decision. He's paid a lot of money to make.

664
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm glad that I don't have to make it. It's

665
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: gonna have to make a decision, and he knows one.

666
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: Once you go, there's no going back. That quarterback situation

667
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: so delicate. Everyone wants to hit the button so so quickly,

668
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: and there's a reason why coaches seem to drag their feet.

669
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: They're not dragging their feet. They just have to be

670
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: fully convicted in the decision because they know they have

671
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: to live with the ramifications. And I just wonder how

672
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: long it takes for us to get there. I believe

673
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: we'll get there. I wonder how long Dabo knows he's

674
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: got an option this year. That's what I want you

675
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: to be thinking as you're watching Clemson games. If you

676
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: don't know anything else about that team, they're going to

677
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: be supremely talented on the defensive front. He knows that

678
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: he does not have to have a quarterback putting up

679
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: Heisman numbers this year. What he has to have is

680
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: a guy who can move the chains, a guy with poise,

681
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 1: a guy with accuracy, a guy who doesn't turn the

682
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: ball over. Just a good decision maker that has an

683
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: elite physical ceiling. Because of the teams, they'll eventually have

684
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: to play down the road to get where they want

685
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: to be. Is DJ Leangoli lay that he wasn't last year.

686
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: I don't expect he'll be this year now. I don't

687
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: know that Kate Klubnick will be. I think he's got

688
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: the potential too, and I think he's got a higher

689
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: ceiling and I think we're going to find that out

690
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later. So that's an update on the

691
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: Clemson quarterback situation. A quick reminder, really good pace tonight.

692
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: A reminder we don't have a show on Thursday night

693
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: because they are big games Thursday night, so it would

694
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: be stupid for us to have a show. However, one

695
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: more reminder, make sure you're following on Instagram at late

696
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: kick Josh. Those Friday night lines is back. What is

697
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,720
Speaker 1: that I haven't explained that tonight. Have I ten second

698
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: version That is where we take the model and I

699
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 1: go live on Instagram. It's later in the evening on Friday.

700
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 1: I'll announce the time about an hour beforehand, and I

701
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: take questions from you for about twenty minutes on games

702
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: that you're thinking about betting that we have not talked

703
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: about on the show, and I'll tell you what the

704
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,959
Speaker 1: model thinks full disclosure. I'll tell you if the model

705
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: says it's a play on or a not and I'll

706
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: give you some thoughts on them. So it was a

707
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 1: really really popular thing we did last year. It is

708
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: not sanctioned or condoned or endorsed by management around here

709
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: in any way. That's why it's on my Instagram channel

710
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: instead of anyone else. It's at Late Kick, Josh, let's

711
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 1: break down another game. You thought we forgot about this

712
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: game the other night. We didn't. We just didn't do

713
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 1: it the other night because it's a Sunday night game.

714
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: But boy, we got a big chunk of our audience

715
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 1: that roots for one of these two teams. Florida State

716
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 1: versus LSU is a Sunday night game. For those of

717
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: you who didn't know, this is a seven to thirty

718
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: Eastern time kickoff on ESPN. It is for this reason

719
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 1: that we're starting our Sunday night show at six thirty Eastern,

720
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: five thirty Central, So just keep that in mind. Brian

721
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: Kelly is the head coach at LSU. Now, for those

722
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: of you who have stuck with us, who live the

723
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 1: no off season life, you know that. I think most

724
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 1: people know it, but you know, there's an entire sea

725
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: of people out there who don't come back to the

726
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 1: college football table until August, so this is still a

727
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 1: new concept to them. And then none of us have

728
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: seen him coach a game in purple and gold. So

729
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: we finally get to see that in the Superdome, a

730
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: neutral site, I'm told, the super Dome, Louisiana, and we

731
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: get to see probably Jaden Daniels at quarterback for LSU. Now,

732
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: Brian Kelly is playing it close to the best or

733
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: close to the chest as some of my buddies would say.

734
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: But we think, and we have for a couple of

735
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 1: weeks thought that Jaden Daniels is going to get the

736
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 1: first look at quarterback there and that has been backed

737
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: up by pretty much everyone I've talked to around the program.

738
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 1: So here's what we need to watch in this game.

739
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,879
Speaker 1: If you could just tell me one thing, and that

740
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 1: one thing was how will lsuse defensive line match up

741
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: against this offensive line of FSU. If you could just

742
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 1: tell me that, if you could confirm my suspicion there,

743
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't even need to watch the game. It

744
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 1: is my belief that offensive line is the biggest bright

745
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: blinking red light on this FSU team. Fan base knows it.

746
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 1: This is no mystery. But if you haven't been following

747
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: FSU closely, they've had some injury misfortune, I guess, especially

748
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: on the interior. And there is the presence of guys

749
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: like Mayson Smith at LSU, for example, a guy who's

750
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: versatile enough and supremely talented enough to just shift all

751
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 1: around on that front like some of these Clumson guys

752
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: have been able to do in the past, that you

753
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: could reach a critical mass of unblockability. Shall always say

754
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: Sunday night to where the game is wrecked. And that's

755
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: a risk that Florida State runs. Now, there are ways

756
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: to window dress your way around that, but the bottom

757
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: line is, if you're continually dealing with surge up the

758
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: middle offensively, there's really no page in your playbook that

759
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: accounts for that. The lines on those routes they get

760
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 1: really zigzagged because you got to cut them off early

761
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: because your receivers don't have adequate time to even complete

762
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: their square ends of square outs and post and so

763
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: it could get a little sideway. So that's the first thing.

764
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: If you could just tell me that, I wouldn't need

765
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: to go through the rest of the breakdown. The most

766
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 1: basic reason why Florida State could end up winning this though,

767
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: is the reason. So it sounds kind of common sensical,

768
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: but if you think about it, there's no one player.

769
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: Sometimes when you do breakdowns, or you're trying to bet

770
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 1: a game. You're trying to look for this one edge,

771
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: and you're trying to look for this one guy that's

772
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 1: gonna be the reason FSU is gonna win because of

773
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: and then there's one name in the blanket. It sounds

774
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: really good. It's like a fortune cookie. It's like bumper

775
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 1: sticker logic. I don't know that Florida State has that,

776
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 1: But what they could have in the aggregate is enough

777
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:29,280
Speaker 1: small gains just through continual progression, slow progression, but progression

778
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 1: under Brian or Mike Norvel. They could have enough that

779
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: the incremental gains add up in the aggregate to a

780
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: good enough product to where the team's just flat out

781
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: better than you thought they'd be. It's no one guy.

782
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: There's not one guy or one position group that's gotten

783
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: thirty five percent better than last year. They're just a

784
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: little bit better and a little bit better because that's

785
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: what they've done every year under him so far. And

786
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: if that has started to maybe scale just a little bit,

787
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 1: there's a little bit steeper slope to the progression. This

788
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 1: is the kind of game where it could show up

789
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 1: the line's three LSU's favored by three in Louisiana. So

790
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: there are holes on this LSU team too. We don't

791
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: know if they're going to be able to run the ball.

792
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: No one in Louisiana knows if they're going to be

793
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: able to run the ball. No one knows fully what

794
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: to expect at quarterback. Think you got a good one.

795
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: Think you got a really good stable of receivers. Speaking

796
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: of those receivers, that is the other potentially glaring mismatch here.

797
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: If there are mismatches, the first one is that LSU

798
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 1: defensive line against a vulnerable, to say the least FSU

799
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: offensive front. The other one is this stable of receivers

800
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: for LSU could really go to work Sunday night. And

801
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: these are two factors that do not lend a ton

802
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: of confidence to me backing Florida State. But you do

803
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 1: have to keep in mind this could just as easily

804
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: be an argument made the other way around. LSU starting

805
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: a true freshman at left tackle. He's a really good one.

806
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: His name's Will Campbell, and they feel so good about him.

807
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: He's kind of been entrench during camp and they've been

808
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: able to work some guys else wearing cross train here

809
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 1: and cross train there. So listen, this could be just

810
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: an immediate plug and play. We see him every few years.

811
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 1: Bama's had several of them. LSU may have one and

812
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: Will Campbell, but you still have a true freshman there.

813
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: So at the very least you know Jared Verse, for example,

814
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: is a transfer that Florida State thinks they hit the

815
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: lottery on. He'll match up against Campbell probably a fair

816
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 1: amount Sunday night. What if there's vulnerability there? What if

817
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 1: that's the matchup advantage up front that maybe you don't

818
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: quite see coming in that leads to a blind side

819
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: strip sack that leads to maybe a plus one or

820
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: plus two turnover margin for Florida State over the span

821
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: of four quarters. And that's how they win a twenty

822
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 1: six to twenty three ball game that's in the cards.

823
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 1: We're just trying to play percentages here and figure out

824
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 1: what's more likely. So let's take a look at the model.

825
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: You see what Vegas thinks LSU minus three. As you

826
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: know because I gave this out last week, LSU is

827
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 1: one of our Ramanudle Express best bets. Much as I

828
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: try to paint the scenario for you, when I think

829
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,280
Speaker 1: about the line of scrimmage advantage for LSU's defensive line,

830
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 1: and when I think about the potential perimeter advantage for

831
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: LSU's wide receivers, I think that they're going to stretch

832
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: it a little bit. And so we're taking LSU to win.

833
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 1: We're taking them to cover. The model has LSU minus six.

834
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: So there's a little bit of margin difference here between

835
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: our models thinking and the Vegas thinking, and we are

836
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: therefore going to not only take LSU to win and cover.

837
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: That's one of our best bets of the week. So

838
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 1: give us the Tigers a happy start for the Brian

839
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: Kelly era, and we will do another show before that

840
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: game happens. Right before it happens. Challi of Supremacy are

841
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: on the line this week. I've got a brand new

842
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: shipment in here as we speak, so I've already shipped

843
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: some of them out to some recipients. Chalice of Supremacy

844
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: is the singular Chaali of supremacy, the plural. You get one,

845
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,959
Speaker 1: not because you purchased it, because they're not for sale,

846
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: but when you do something that I think spreads the

847
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 1: good word of this show. If you market our show

848
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 1: in public to such a degree that people take notice

849
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: a lot of you stormed college game day last year

850
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: and you got kicked out, got us banned from game day.

851
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: But that's okay because it accomplished the mission. I send

852
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: you a chalice of supremacy, which is that little glass

853
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 1: or maybe even a crystal figuring. Let's just call it crystal.

854
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 1: That little crystal figuring there. You can't see it all

855
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,399
Speaker 1: that well, but you got the Peate State logo carved there.

856
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 1: It says Pate State Chalice of Supremacy. We don't send

857
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 1: many of those out, guys. It is an honor to

858
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 1: be able to get one of those. We should put

859
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: serial numbers on them. Chili have supremacy on the line.

860
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: You got to prove to me that you've earned one.

861
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: And it's a very steep standard. But if you meet one, yes,

862
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: you will be sending me your address, and I would

863
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 1: be sending one of those to you. And the opportunities

864
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: are all season long. It starts this week. Let's go

865
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: back to Thursday night, another Thursday night must see primetime game,

866
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: West Virginia at pitt The Backyard Brawl is back. This

867
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: is a seven o'clock Eastern time kickoff on ESPN. It's

868
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: one of two mussy games, Penn State Perdue being the

869
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: other one. I did something today I normally don't do.

870
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: They have not played this game since twenty eleven, and

871
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 1: I have missed it. So I did something I don't

872
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: normally do. I took a dive into the history books.

873
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 1: And now, of course there's no threat at all in

874
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 1: forgetting history. I mean, when his history shown us that

875
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 1: knowing history benefits you, right, paper, pop, time, listen to

876
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: this absurd stat I got to take you all the

877
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: way back to the Great Depression from nineteen twenty four

878
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: to nineteen forty six. That's twenty games. There was a

879
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: little break there for something called World War One. Read

880
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: about it, kids, But for twenty games, Pitt went nineteen

881
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: and one. In this stretch, West Virginia scored sixty six

882
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: points in twenty games. So I scurried down the hallway

883
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: to stats in Info, and I said, what is sixty

884
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:51,479
Speaker 1: six divided by twenty? And they said three point three.

885
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 1: There was a two decade stretch where West Virginia averaged

886
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 1: three point three points per game. They went one in

887
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: nineteen and at not so coincidentally, it was during the

888
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 1: Great Depression, so we think we think that Neil Brown

889
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 1: and Company. He's named J. T. Daniels starting quarterback. We

890
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: think they'll score more than three point three. There's no guarantee,

891
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: but we think they'll score more than three point three

892
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 1: this Thursday night. What are we getting at quarterback here?

893
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna let me spare you. Okay, you're gonna see

894
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 1: this headline the entirety of Thursday. So you got J. T.

895
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,240
Speaker 1: Daniels starting at quarterback for West Virginia. You got Keden

896
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 1: Slovas starting at quarterback for pitt What do they have

897
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 1: in common? They both played at USC. Yes, it's a

898
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 1: great story. Yes the casuals will drool over it. The

899
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,479
Speaker 1: reason why I sound so ho hum is because we've

900
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: been here for months. We know this, We've seen it

901
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 1: come in, so we're not gonna waste time talking about that.

902
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: We're not a big storyline show, just kind of care

903
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: what happens on the field. So the one thing that

904
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: I want to remind you with J. T. Daniels as

905
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: a lot of lesser informed folks are gonna tell you

906
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 1: he either got benched or didn't start for Georgia last year.

907
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: Because the min and plays funny tricks on you and

908
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 1: when it comes to revisionist history, JT. Daniels started for

909
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 1: the national champ last year. Then he got knocked out,

910
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: Then he didn't finish the season, and there was this whole

911
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 1: external drama around that that very few people know the

912
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: whole story behind, and we're not going to be sharing

913
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: that whole story on tonight's show. But he was the

914
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 1: one Kirby Smart and Todd Monkin chose as their starting

915
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 1: quarterback to begin last year's eventual National championship season for Georgia.

916
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 1: Don't let anyone tell you anything different. Keithen Slovas has

917
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 1: played way more football than j T. Daniels. But this

918
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 1: is the much bigger story. Keaton slova is starting at

919
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 1: Pitt because of who he replaces, and that's a first

920
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 1: round quarterback in Kenny Pickett, and there's a lot of

921
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: production there that has to be replaced. Now, this leads

922
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: into what I think is the single biggest factor in

923
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 1: this game, and that is a lot of people are

924
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: going to yell in your face. Close proximity alert. They're

925
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 1: going to yell in your face. Pitt won the ACC

926
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: last year, and your proper response should be I couldn't

927
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: care less It's not to discount Pitt, far be it

928
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 1: from me to do that. They had a great season

929
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: last year. They got a great team this year. It's

930
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 1: not discounting what they accomplished last year. It's just telling

931
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 1: them this says twenty twenty two on the Marquis. This

932
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 1: game is yet to happen. So what they did last

933
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: year doesn't matter. That's just filler because you don't know

934
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 1: anything more about their team. So what is their team

935
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 1: this year? Well, their team is without that first round

936
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: starting quarterback. Their team is without the Bolitnikoff winner in

937
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: Jordan Addison, and their team is without an offensive coordinator

938
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,720
Speaker 1: that Paton or Doozy himself couldn't care less about, because

939
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 1: he took every opportunity to throw Mark Whipple under the

940
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 1: bus once he exited stage right, which may seem peculiar

941
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 1: to you. Why would a head coach whose offensive coordinator

942
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: helped him win the conference last year despise his offensive

943
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 1: coordinator so much? Who knows? That's between those two and

944
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: neither one of them took the invitation to hash it

945
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: out here on the show Whipples Out. I think Kignetti

946
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 1: is the offensive coord that's in there now and the

947
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: reason why I'm mentioning all this, even though those things

948
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 1: are also in the past, is to tell you if

949
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: they're not doing anything they did last year, if they

950
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 1: don't have the critical pieces they had last year, then

951
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 1: what they accomplished this year will have nothing to do

952
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 1: with last year. So I don't care that they won

953
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: the ACC last year. It's irrelevant to this Thursday night

954
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: and the rest of the season. Quarterbacks aren't the main

955
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 1: focus for me here. Now. You're not gonna hear that

956
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: very much leading into this game, but Pitt is going

957
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 1: to be fully committed to running the football. If you

958
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: missed what Pat Nordoozy said, and he said it loud,

959
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: and he said it a lot the past few months.

960
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 1: He did not like how frequently they threw the ball

961
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 1: last year. He did not like that they didn't have

962
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 1: the kind of control over games and the grip on

963
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 1: games that running the ball at will gives you, and

964
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: he wanted to get back to it. Well, guess what

965
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 1: they're going to do Thursday night. They're going to try

966
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: and get back to that, and that I think may

967
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 1: play a little bit into West Virginia's hands because they

968
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 1: have sort of quietly up there in Morgantown been retooling

969
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 1: their defensive front and it's been a focus for them nationally.

970
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 1: This is not a story that anyone's talked about. They

971
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: are very big by West Virginia standards. They're very big

972
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 1: along their defensive front, and they've had to be because

973
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: there's been a shift in the style of play in

974
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 1: the Big twelve. And so if you look at their

975
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: depth chart, you're going to see some three hundred pound

976
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: guys and some high two hundred pound guys instead of

977
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 1: some undersized guys that once upon a time you were

978
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 1: told you need for the pinball offenses in the Big twelve.

979
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 1: Well that's not what they do so much anymore. And

980
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 1: so you got to build, and you've got to have

981
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: strong interior defensive line play. And they've got them there.

982
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 1: They got a couple three three h and fifteen pounders.

983
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 1: So I wonder as this game starts to unfold, how

984
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 1: successful is pit running the ball. There will be no trickery.

985
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: They're going to run it right at them. They're going

986
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 1: to first make West Virginia prove that what I just

987
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: said matters. They're going to make it prove that they

988
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: can stand up to the run. If they do, that's

989
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: when it gets fun to me. If that doesn't happen,

990
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: then it's academic and Pit'll go ahead and win the game.

991
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 1: But here's the balancing act. So that's part one. Part

992
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 1: two of the balancing act is West Virginia needs to

993
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 1: test this secondary very famously. This secondary has been kind

994
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 1: of feast or famine Pitts secondary. And when they're good,

995
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 1: they're really good. But man, they can give up some

996
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 1: big plays through the year. Here's the risk JT. Daniels

997
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 1: in this offense a lot of newness. What if they're

998
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 1: not clicking. What if you just string a bunch of

999
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 1: three and outs together short drives five plays or less

1000
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 1: early in the game, and all of a sudden, the

1001
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 1: critical factors of the game start tilting. We get to

1002
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter, Pits run twenty two plays,

1003
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 1: you've run seven. We get to halftime, Pits run forty

1004
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: six plays, You've run nineteen. Well, that doesn't bode well

1005
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: for the second half. That plays right into their hands.

1006
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: But yet at the same time, you think that your

1007
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 1: best matchup against them is probably making plays against that secondary.

1008
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 1: This is football, by the way, This is an age

1009
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 1: old concept. There is the whole risk reward proposition. That's

1010
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 1: where I think this one will hinge Number one. West

1011
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 1: Virginia's size upfront and their ability to limit the pit

1012
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 1: ground game. Make Pitt throw the ball on you to win,

1013
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 1: you know, make Paton Ardoozy put his back to the

1014
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 1: field on third down because he is that anti throwing

1015
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:11,439
Speaker 1: the football, and then secondly, have some success through the air.

1016
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:13,800
Speaker 1: It doesn't take you long to go back and watch J. T.

1017
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 1: Daniels when he's been healthy in his career and make

1018
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 1: you say wow, if he throws the ball like that,

1019
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 1: then look out, yeah, look out. Make sure he's healthy.

1020
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 1: Well he is. It's week one, so let's take a

1021
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 1: look at what the model thinks here Vegas. Number Pitt

1022
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 1: is a favorite of seven and a half. The model

1023
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 1: is shorter than that. We've got Pitt minus four and

1024
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 1: a half. And I'm even more bullish than that. So

1025
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: I have not done this much in week one, but

1026
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: not only have we taken West Virginia plus the points

1027
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 1: as one of our Rama Noodle Express best bets. I

1028
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: think they're actually going to go win the game. So

1029
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take West Virginia to win the game out

1030
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 1: right close one. But that would really calibrate a lot

1031
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 1: of what Week one could be if this happens on

1032
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 1: Thursday night. The model, the model for the record does

1033
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 1: like Pit does, like Pitt to win, just shorter. I

1034
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 1: am going to take the added step and put a

1035
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: little unit on the money line there. So we're gonna

1036
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 1: take West Virginia plus the points. We're gonna take West

1037
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 1: Virginia to win the game outright, and if we are correct,

1038
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 1: let's be the first to congratulate Neil Brown and that

1039
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,880
Speaker 1: coaching staff. Never been done before, congratulating a coach for

1040
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 1: a game he's gonna win forty eight hours from now.

1041
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 1: But we are a bold show. They're watching us in

1042
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 1: a to Oklahoma, Phoenix, Arizona, and Greenville, South Carolina. I

1043
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: appreciate you guys being tuned in. We need to recap

1044
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 1: our best bets for a week one Ram and Noodle

1045
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:37,360
Speaker 1: express time. These lines have moved, not my problem. You

1046
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: gotta get on them when we give them out, and

1047
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 1: we gave these out last week because we knew that move.

1048
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: We got West Virginia plus seven. We just talked about

1049
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 1: that game. Louisville minus three and a half. Louisville is

1050
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 1: playing at Syracuse. I think that is an extremely square number,

1051
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 1: full disclosure, but I cannot ignore what our model says.

1052
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 1: Our model thinks that number is way off. I mean,

1053
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: like a touchdown off. So we're still taking Louisville minus

1054
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: three and a half LSU minus three. We've been on

1055
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: LSU for a week. I think you can still get

1056
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 1: that number though. Now here's one that benefits you. We've

1057
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 1: got Kent State plus twenty one and a half. They're

1058
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,799
Speaker 1: playing Washington. I think you can get a twenty two

1059
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:14,439
Speaker 1: and a half or a twenty three out there. Now

1060
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:17,760
Speaker 1: we just like it more there. I mean, model loves

1061
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 1: Kent State. We've got that thing I think at sixteen.

1062
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,479
Speaker 1: So I don't know what in the world they're seeing

1063
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: that we're not, but that model has built a reputation

1064
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: enough where we'll trust it. So we're gonna take Kent

1065
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,800
Speaker 1: State at Washington. That's a late game. If you feel

1066
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 1: like staying up at an irresponsible hour for week one

1067
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,760
Speaker 1: on Saturday night, stay up and watch Kent State. Also

1068
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: one more reminder, Saturday, it is going to be a

1069
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 1: very fun day for everyone. Just remember as you're kind

1070
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: of rounding out your betting experience, I've got something to

1071
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 1: share with you. We've been working on this in total silence.

1072
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 1: Hustle in silence, that's kind of what we do around here.

1073
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:00,879
Speaker 1: I have been working with our It's going to sound

1074
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 1: weird when I say this, but it's accurate. Our data

1075
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 1: science team and we have developed a new product for you.

1076
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 1: It is going to stream on this YouTube channel during

1077
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 1: the day on Saturday. It's not a show. It's nothing

1078
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 1: like you've ever seen us do before. I know a

1079
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 1: ton of you are into live betting. There is a

1080
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 1: ton of money to be made in live betting, and I,

1081
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 1: with our data science team, have developed the ability to

1082
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 1: build a live version of our model. So there are

1083
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 1: going to be select games that we take and we

1084
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,440
Speaker 1: plug into that model and we stream on this channel

1085
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 1: to where you get a live projection play by play

1086
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 1: of what the model now thinks about the game. So

1087
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 1: Clemson Georgia Tech Monday night. You know, if the model

1088
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 1: thinks Clemson Mind is twenty three, but Georgia Tech starts

1089
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 1: out ten to nothing, and you want to know what

1090
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:56,399
Speaker 1: that model may think. Now you're going to have it.

1091
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: I'll do you one better. We even have hypothetical scenari

1092
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 1: built in on the model. So if you're watching LSUFSU

1093
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:06,879
Speaker 1: and you think you may want to live bet this thing,

1094
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:08,959
Speaker 1: Florida State feels a little better now. They feel pretty

1095
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 1: sure about themselves. If LSU goes three and out here,

1096
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna bet this. That model will tell you

1097
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 1: what the updated projection will be if LSU goes three

1098
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 1: and out, if they kick a field goal, if they

1099
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 1: score a touchdown. So not only are we going to

1100
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: tell you in real time what the new projection on

1101
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 1: the game is play by play, we're going to have

1102
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: some hypotheticals built in there for you so you can

1103
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,320
Speaker 1: get ahead of the curve. I think it's going to

1104
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 1: be a valuable asset. It is to be used as

1105
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 1: a resource. You're not to live and die with this thing,

1106
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:36,919
Speaker 1: but it's very good for those of you who watch

1107
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 1: games at home, just ninety five percent of the audience.

1108
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 1: It's going to be a really good tool to just

1109
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 1: have pulled up on a monitor there and you can

1110
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 1: keep an eye on it. And if you're into live

1111
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:49,399
Speaker 1: betting anyway, then you want one more resource on your side.

1112
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 1: That model will be there for you. It won't be

1113
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: this huge model with every game on it, but we'll

1114
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 1: have some select games that I think will have a

1115
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 1: lot of attention on them. You asked for this and

1116
00:54:57,880 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 1: I found out that we could do it, so we've

1117
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: done it. We'll have some kinks to work out in

1118
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 1: week one. We'll have this thing worked out by week

1119
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: two or week three. So just check out the YouTube

1120
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:08,480
Speaker 1: channel on Saturday. Appreciate you guys so much. Make sure

1121
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 1: you give us a like on the way out. We've

1122
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 1: had big audiences the entire summer. Most of you never left,

1123
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 1: so I appreciate it. For those of you who have

1124
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 1: come back, do not miss a show, and make sure

1125
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 1: you are subscribed everywhere you can be. That is the

1126
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 1: name of the game for us. Subscriptions on the YouTube channel,

1127
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast. And then, and this is probably

1128
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:32,439
Speaker 1: the most critical part. I got a whisper. Go take

1129
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 1: your mom's phone, Go take your dad's phone, Go take

1130
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 1: your sister's phone. Cousin Elroy if he's in town, take

1131
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 1: that phone, get in there when they're not looking, and subscribe.

1132
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 1: Is it ethical? I don't know. Is it helpful? Absolutely?

1133
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 1: So just go do it and apologize later. Thank you

1134
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: guys so much. No show Thursday night. Check out Friday

1135
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 1: Night Lines on the Instagram channel Friday night. We'll be

1136
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: back here Sunday night, six thirty Eastern, five thirty Central,

1137
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 1: and then we'll be back to normal after that. For

1138
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 1: producer Jesse, for director Colin, I'm Josh Bate. Have a

1139
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 1: great rest of your evening. Take care and goblets.