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Speaker 1: Line at one eight eight eight nine, or visit one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I

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Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moleman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, folks, It's time to narrow down the slate

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Speaker 1: to find our favorite five four Sunday by Hours. I'm

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Speaker 1: me and my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: my dinner dates from Philadelphia on Tuesday nights. Professional better

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my brother that was a good time buddy.

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Speaker 1: Who was the name, the guy the b Shout out

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Speaker 1: right and tell the whole story right now. I was

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Speaker 1: in Philly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday night, had dinner

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Speaker 1: in Written House Squared, a place called Dandelion with my

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Speaker 1: good friend Simon Hunter. Fantastic walk into the restaurant. I'm

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Speaker 1: seeing Simon. We're gonna, you know, have a celebration of

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Speaker 1: the end of a great year of our friendship, a

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Speaker 1: great year for the podcast. We toast Matt Mitchell, We

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Speaker 1: toast our listeners. I walk on and Simon's already there.

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Speaker 1: I didn't know this yet. I walk in, I give

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Speaker 1: my name for the reservation. The woman who is going

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Speaker 1: to seat me, she doesn't know who I am, so

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Speaker 1: she doesn't know she she actually like this sounds a

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Speaker 1: little weird. She goes. One of your listeners wanted to

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Speaker 1: buy you and your friend around the drinks, which was lovely,

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Speaker 1: totally lovely, right, I'd tell us to Simon, we're laughing

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Speaker 1: about it. We're sitting, we're chatting, we're talking, and then

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Speaker 1: about five, six, seven, ten minutes later whatever, the waiter

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Speaker 1: comes by asks us for our drinks. At this point,

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Speaker 1: I've forgotten that somebody was buying us the drinks, right.

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Speaker 1: I ordered a lag of ulan, which is a whiskey

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Speaker 1: that is on the price of your side. I realized afterwards, like,

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Speaker 1: I'm such an asshole. Why would I order that when

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Speaker 1: someone was buying it for us? So I personally feel

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Speaker 1: like I owe Norbert Lewandowski, the listener who brought us

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Speaker 1: the drinks, an apology because it was a totally classy move.

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Speaker 1: And uh, Simon and I uh texted Norbert a photo

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Speaker 1: of us outside the pub after the evening. We owe

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Speaker 1: him a huge thank you. Norbert, You're going to text

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Speaker 1: me your size and we're gonna send you some action

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Speaker 1: swag for a deal. And I bought a pony Boy,

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Speaker 1: which is some type of beer and it was delicious,

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Speaker 1: So we do appreciate it. We do. It was really

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Speaker 1: really sweet. And then he sent me a great text.

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Speaker 1: I have texted him and I didn't even know, Like

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Speaker 1: I said, I don't know if this is your sell

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Speaker 1: or not. I don't even know, like it might be

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Speaker 1: totally random. But here's a picture of me and Simon. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And he said that he actually had bet one of

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Speaker 1: our money line parlays and did really well. I think

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Speaker 1: that Simon Simon, we got a lot to discuss. We

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Speaker 1: gotta get to our money line parlay. We gotta get

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Speaker 1: to the survivors. We gotta narrow it down. We felt

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Speaker 1: like we were struggling a little bit on Tuesday after

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Speaker 1: the show on Tuesday night together, you could sense it.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday to there there there was just a lot

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Speaker 1: of unsure injury news for us. So that's why I

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Speaker 1: just didn't feel as confident betting early in the week. Well,

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Speaker 1: now we know some stuff, so we should dig into it.

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Speaker 1: We do have to get the sharp calls. Hello, who's there.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking right. This is the segment where between Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and Thursday you start getting calls from the wise guys

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Speaker 1: saying what they liked and didn't like about what we

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Speaker 1: said on Tuesday. Let's do some sharp calls. Definitely got

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Speaker 1: a decent amount this week. Actually, it was pretty quiet

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Speaker 1: early in the week, and then after our show posted,

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Speaker 1: I knew dudes were gonna reach out, just because at

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Speaker 1: my confident level wasn't that high. And man, apparently we

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Speaker 1: had a big miss on the Browns Ravens. I like

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Speaker 1: the Ravens. I thought you were getting good value on

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Speaker 1: the points of all the professionals I've talked to this

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Speaker 1: week are are big on the Browns and the other

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Speaker 1: side we'renning the big on the Ravens. Are just like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I like the Ravens, but I'm not really betting it.

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Speaker 1: The other guys I've talked to these other professionals, they

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Speaker 1: love the Browns, and I think they're looking at from

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Speaker 1: the standpoint the Browns had played against them, had to

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Speaker 1: buy a week, and they're playing against them again the

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Speaker 1: following week, so they've actually, you know, their mindsets still

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Speaker 1: in that same game where the Ravens have gone and

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Speaker 1: played a tough game against Pittsburgh, the same reason we're

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Speaker 1: fading Pittsburgh tonight against his Vikings team. That's just a

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Speaker 1: really hard, faught, grueling NFC North kind of a f

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Speaker 1: C North kind of game. Now you're looking at the

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Speaker 1: Browns team that the word is Baker's look better this week.

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Speaker 1: He came in. Suppose he's looking better. His legs have

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Speaker 1: looked better, he's moving well in practice. The offensive line again,

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Speaker 1: that's what we were really waiting on to see what

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Speaker 1: Brown's Apparently they're gonna be back and healthy. So if

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Speaker 1: that's true, comes Sunday and we're getting, you know, to

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Speaker 1: minus just two and a half still with the Browns,

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Speaker 1: that could be one of the picks because I looked

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Speaker 1: at it as if you're gonna good balue on this

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Speaker 1: Ravens team. But man, the amount of professional is really

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Speaker 1: really talking tout how much they like this Brown's team.

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Speaker 1: We have to take it. If they feel this strongly

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Speaker 1: about it. And then the line movement's going up to

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Speaker 1: minus three, and that's a big indicator when the money's

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Speaker 1: pouring in, the tickets are pointing on the Ravens and

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Speaker 1: it's moving the other way. That's us. You know, these

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Speaker 1: pros aren't just talking about their betting it like they've

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Speaker 1: been betting this Brown's team. So that that was definitely

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Speaker 1: only the more interesting calls we had. The next one

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Speaker 1: was about the Bengals. I get with the pros are betting.

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Speaker 1: They're they're they're betting the four nineers. They've bet him

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Speaker 1: at they've bet him at plus three, they've bet him

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Speaker 1: all the way down to certain books now have them

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Speaker 1: at minus one, and it keeps flip flopping back and forth.

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Speaker 1: They think Joe bro broke two fingers on his throne hand.

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Speaker 1: They think he broke his pinky. They he broke his index.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know what to do here. I just

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Speaker 1: don't have a strong enough opinion on it, Like I

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Speaker 1: want to take the Bengals team, But when I hear

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Speaker 1: the pros telling me this stuff, they have better sources

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Speaker 1: than I do. On these teams. They talk to guys

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Speaker 1: on medical staffs. They were talking to the the scouts on

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Speaker 1: the teams, which that's one of the biggest leakers of

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Speaker 1: all NFL teams are scouts because scouts like the trade information,

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Speaker 1: so they're always trying to get information on other teams.

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Speaker 1: They have more than happy giveaway information on their team

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Speaker 1: that doesn't affect their job. Their job is to scout.

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Speaker 1: So it's been interesting hearing all coming out of since

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Speaker 1: you that you know, you haven't seen anything like Chefter's

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Speaker 1: not tweeting about It's been interesting, media not talking about it.

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Speaker 1: Where behind the doors guys are really talking about this,

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Speaker 1: this injury to Joe Burrow, And you've seen the line

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Speaker 1: moving that way like it's that's what they make sense

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Speaker 1: to me with the fact the line movement was moving

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Speaker 1: down like it was because to me, the forty owners

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Speaker 1: of the bang up team apparently it's it's they're they're

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Speaker 1: spot on. They have a good read on this. So

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Speaker 1: maybe I won't bet the forts is one of our

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Speaker 1: best five, but I'll just walk away from it. But

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Speaker 1: you never know it comes Sunday if we do here.

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow has two broken fingers. He's not playing er.

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Speaker 1: He's wearing some special glove on his hand. That can't

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Speaker 1: make you feel great about a team that needs their

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Speaker 1: quarterback to make big plays on third down. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're not a run first kind of team. I know

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Speaker 1: last week they're running all over the Chargers. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about completely different defenses here. The four nine. They're bad

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Speaker 1: against the past, they're not bad against the run. So

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Speaker 1: uh that that was a more interesting call. They're back.

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Speaker 1: They're on our backs with the Washington football team. They

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Speaker 1: love that pick by us, they love our pick of

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Speaker 1: the Giants both. I think both of them are looking

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Speaker 1: at that. Those are two dogs are just undervalued right now.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I would say that the biggest stay

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Speaker 1: away they kept talking to me about was this line's team.

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Speaker 1: And then sure enough it came out a much of

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Speaker 1: those guys in the lines have the flow. So Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff has been out of practice, they just have that.

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Speaker 1: They had a couple offensive linemen out. Maybe we just

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Speaker 1: stay away from Detroit this week because I I was

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Speaker 1: really liking Detroit. I was liking the momentum. I was

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Speaker 1: gonna be all over their money line. We'll wait and

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Speaker 1: see if these guys come back and practice today and tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: because if they don't, you have to stay away from Detroit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're already a bad team. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if their backups are going to be, you know, just

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Speaker 1: a complete fall apart kind of offense. If they come

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Speaker 1: in so that's when I was I'm walcome away from

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Speaker 1: the Detroit line. For what it's worth, that's great information

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Speaker 1: about the Bengals, great great feedback on the Browns. I

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Speaker 1: listened as I always do to the Action Network podcast

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Speaker 1: this morning hosted by Chris Raybonn and Stucky. Uh. Stucky

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Speaker 1: loves the Browns for everything that you just said, especially

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Speaker 1: the fact that the Browns basically have had three weeks

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Speaker 1: preparing for this Ravens team because they went into play

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Speaker 1: them had to buy getting healthier. Ravens coming off an

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Speaker 1: incredibly physical game, and they have more team, more players

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Speaker 1: on the I are than any other team in the

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Speaker 1: NFL this year. Uh, It's it's crazy. And like now

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Speaker 1: they're down three of their top four defensive back so um,

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Speaker 1: really interesting game. Uh bang. Also, that was another one

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Speaker 1: where you could see in the line move like since

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Speaker 1: we spoke on Tuesday to now all the money is

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Speaker 1: coming on the Niners. It's moved from Niners plus two

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Speaker 1: to Niners minus one. Um. Yeah, it's probably that's probably

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Speaker 1: the biggest professional better the week. It feels the amount

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Speaker 1: of money that's really coming on that four and Niners

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Speaker 1: and they've moved it. You know four and a half

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Speaker 1: points now, all right, Well, if if the Browns are

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Speaker 1: getting that much professional love, then it's one that we

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Speaker 1: have to consider for our top five. We've clearly just

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Speaker 1: talked about it, so I don't think there's anything more

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Speaker 1: that we have to say about it. Yeah, we'll just

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Speaker 1: put it icing on it where if you can get

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Speaker 1: the minus two and a half, just take it. Now.

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Speaker 1: The pros are gonna bet that up the three most likely,

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Speaker 1: even though again the money and the tickets are all

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Speaker 1: coming on the raid Ands. I just see this moving

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Speaker 1: in reverse line movement, just because that that that many

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Speaker 1: smart professional talked of coming on the Browns. What about

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Speaker 1: all right? The other game I want to talk about,

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Speaker 1: but I love this was my scoot Roulette pick Um.

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Speaker 1: You had the Giants, I had the Raiders plus nine

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Speaker 1: and a half, now plus ten. It's a Pros Joe's

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Speaker 1: game and not in my direction, meaning the bets are

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Speaker 1: coming in on the Raiders, but the money coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. Especially interesting the fact that this Raider's

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Speaker 1: team always historically played the Chiefs toff, even when the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs were by far the best teams in the world,

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Speaker 1: and it was usually in this kind of match up

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Speaker 1: where everyone's kind of giving up on the Raiders team.

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Speaker 1: That's really interesting. You said, though, the public is still

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Speaker 1: going against the Chiefs and it's professional money coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs. So I'm still with you on the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: I still think we're getting too many points. But like

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Speaker 1: we we got burned by last week. Taking a public dog.

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Speaker 1: It's always a little nerve racking, especially now the books.

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Speaker 1: You're saying here, you like nine and a half years ten,

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Speaker 1: that's that's even better. So they are by the way

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Speaker 1: that number is moved. It's moved. Yeah, that's that's a

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Speaker 1: little scary. And again that's a key number for a

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Speaker 1: lot of different reasons. The biggest one is seven point teasers.

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Speaker 1: People have taken nine and a half. We'll tease it

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Speaker 1: down to two and a half. So that's big. They

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Speaker 1: moved up to that number because now it's just land

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Speaker 1: on three, which most books, you land on three that

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna pay out for a push, So it's

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Speaker 1: it's never good and we're on the other side of

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Speaker 1: reverse line movement. Um, But everything I said is still true.

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Speaker 1: Last week, you take away that picks six, that offense

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Speaker 1: only gets fifteen points in a full game against Again,

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Speaker 1: Denver's defense is good. The Raiders can do the same

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Speaker 1: exact thing. They can rush for We know what they

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Speaker 1: can do with Max Crosby, and they're gonna drop people

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Speaker 1: back into coverage and say, you know, Mahomes, beat us,

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Speaker 1: drive down the field and beat us. They've had terrible

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Speaker 1: turnover luck this Chiefs team, and we keep talking every

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Speaker 1: week that it's gonna eventually turn Maybe that's just who

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Speaker 1: they are this year. Maybe they're just that team where

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Speaker 1: every little bounce is kind of kind of not go

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Speaker 1: their way, like my Homes is just putting too much

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Speaker 1: power and certain things like again I want to blame

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Speaker 1: his receivers. There's certain times here where he's throwing bullets

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Speaker 1: at guys five ft away from like they can't react

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Speaker 1: quick enough to catch these balls. That's why it's bouncing

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Speaker 1: off their chest up in the air. So I'm still

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Speaker 1: with you, chat, I just don't know. Sunday morn and

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Speaker 1: Bill talk us into taking this one because it is

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Speaker 1: it is scary, the movement of it. Well, look, everything

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Speaker 1: we said about the Chiefs last week is true this week.

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Speaker 1: And despite the fact we lost that game and the

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Speaker 1: Bengal and the the Broncos didn't cover. I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: the box score from that game right now in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. It was super easy to call it

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Speaker 1: up Free Award winning app Denver four and four totally

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Speaker 1: yards Kansas City to sixty seven total plays, Denverse seventy two,

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Speaker 1: Kansas City fifty four yards per play Denver five six,

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Speaker 1: Kansas City four nine. First down passing yards to rushing

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Speaker 1: yards one eighty nine. The Broncos dominated that game. Dominated

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Speaker 1: that game. No, we talked about and that's that's the

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Speaker 1: hardest part about gam with It's like you can do

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Speaker 1: all the work, you can be smart on the right side,

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Speaker 1: but the loose little bounces don't go your way. You're

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Speaker 1: never gonna win bets. And that's just how it goes,

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Speaker 1: all right. So we're struggling already because like the Browns

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Speaker 1: are professional play, but we didn't necessarily believe in it.

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Speaker 1: The Raiders are a public dog, which scares the freak

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Speaker 1: out of us. One game. I know we can count

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Speaker 1: on one game. It's very interesting. Washington football team was

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Speaker 1: it four now at four and a half. We love that.

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Speaker 1: People be like, well, why isn't this scaring you? Where

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Speaker 1: the raiders are There's not tons of pro money coming

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Speaker 1: in on this this Dallas team. It's been honestly, the

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Speaker 1: public's driving this number up. The bookmakers probably looked at

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Speaker 1: this and said, you know what, let's just keep pushing

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Speaker 1: up and hope you we'll get more professional money. Most

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Speaker 1: pros are like me, They're just gonna keep waiting. Like I.

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Speaker 1: I look at this number and I thought, you know what,

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Speaker 1: I might as well just wait and see which number

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Speaker 1: it goes to, because if it went down to four

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Speaker 1: to three and a half, I would take it there.

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Speaker 1: That's what I would be waiting for. Now that it's

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Speaker 1: a four and a half, I'll bet a little bit

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Speaker 1: on it, but I'm just keep waiting for a bigger bet,

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Speaker 1: maybe on Saturday, just hoping it gets the plus five

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Speaker 1: five and a half, because we've just seen it on

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Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. The line usually moves towards these public favorites,

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Speaker 1: and you already knew coming in this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a big public favorite. Washington is an ugly team. They

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Speaker 1: have the only undrafted quarterback in the NFL plane and

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Speaker 1: again he's played well. We saw last week get a

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Speaker 1: couple of bumps in that game really stupid turnovers. Was

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Speaker 1: able to drive the field the end of the game

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Speaker 1: and get that game, win the field well, which again,

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Speaker 1: that was huge for that Washing team and their momentum.

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Speaker 1: That's why we want to back this team. This team

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Speaker 1: is riding such high momentums and we're not even talking

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Speaker 1: about coaching matchup. I think Rivera is a much better

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Speaker 1: coach than McCarthy. So there there's a bunch of things

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Speaker 1: that point towards taking this Washington team. The fact that

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Speaker 1: it's outdoor as well is another reason I love it.

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Speaker 1: The public is coming in heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy on

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys this Sunday. So if you didn't get that

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Speaker 1: number at four, just keep waiting. You'll be able to

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Speaker 1: get four and a half for five. I believe I

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Speaker 1: kick off. I do worry and I said this the

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Speaker 1: other day that we're not being consistent in our respect

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Speaker 1: for regression, and that a lot of the things that

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Speaker 1: we say about other teams as as it relates to

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Speaker 1: they're on a streak, they're playing well, we're not acknowledging

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Speaker 1: about the Washington football team. What kind of regression you're

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Speaker 1: looking for? That they're barely beating these teams, They just win, baby.

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Speaker 1: So if we're getting points in a team that plays

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Speaker 1: teams close, it's it's not that much of a fear.

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Speaker 1: It's not like we're taking them minus three. That's all right.

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Speaker 1: So that's an important distinction, right when we're talking about regression,

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Speaker 1: it's potentially the Packers. It's twelve and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites against the Bears, which we may get a better example, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: but for people to understand that the Washington football team

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Speaker 1: has been winning and Taylor Heineke has been playing better,

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Speaker 1: but you're getting a team that is streaking that still

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Speaker 1: isn't getting respect in the market. They're still not and

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Speaker 1: they're also I feel like they're getting proper respect from

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Speaker 1: the bookmakers. Where they wanted to open this game at

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Speaker 1: three three and a half. They said, fine, we'll let

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Speaker 1: the public bet it up, and which is what they did.

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Speaker 1: So they're doing exactly what they should do, which is

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Speaker 1: a job, which is you're trying to get public money on,

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Speaker 1: you know, a national team, which the Cowboys are. There

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Speaker 1: are top three team in this league. The public is

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Speaker 1: always gonna try bet on them, especially when they're coming

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Speaker 1: off a win. Extended rest. I'm with you on the

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Speaker 1: fact that regression has come from this Washington team. I'm

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Speaker 1: just waiting for it when the line catches up to it.

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Speaker 1: Like again, if this was minus three, probably on the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that we're getting a better number on

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Speaker 1: a close matchup, that's what makes us lean towards this

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Speaker 1: Washington team so hard. That's a good explanation. That's the

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Speaker 1: kind of explanation I'm looking for alright. This other one,

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Speaker 1: it's so ugly. We talked about it on Tuesday. We

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Speaker 1: still owe are listening audience. A big balls better the

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Speaker 1: Week are the Jets, which has come down was plus

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Speaker 1: six now plus five and a half, huge pros Joe's game,

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Speaker 1: the bets on the Saints, seventy two of the money

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Speaker 1: on the Jets. Honestly, when I'm thinking big balls, I

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Speaker 1: feel like that Brown's game is the big biggest balls

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Speaker 1: better the week. The fact that it's gonna be up

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Speaker 1: to minus three, A lot of people have to bet

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Speaker 1: that number against a Ravens team that's gonna take big balls.

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Speaker 1: That's I'm just thinking about it right now. It's scaring me,

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Speaker 1: Like I'm so much happy to get, honest two and

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Speaker 1: a half of this Browns team, So that that, to

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Speaker 1: me is our biggest ball is better the week? Is

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Speaker 1: that Brown's big ball better the week this Jets matchup?

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Speaker 1: So would you just say the money is the money's

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Speaker 1: coming in on the Jets. Money's coming big on the Jets.

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Speaker 1: I don't fucking like it. Man. Like when I first

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Speaker 1: saw this number, I was probably with them on the Jets.

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Speaker 1: Kamar is supposed to be back, and they're supposed to

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Speaker 1: get back with their tackles. If this Saints team gets

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Speaker 1: back that front line against the Jets team that they

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Speaker 1: just got dominated dominated up front by that Eagles team.

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Speaker 1: And that's what the Saints want to do. They want

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Speaker 1: to run the ball. They got a running quarterback. Even

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Speaker 1: as Surevor Simeon he's been all right for them again

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Speaker 1: he beat the Buccaneers. Like this guy, when you need drives,

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Speaker 1: he can't put together some drives. I I get what

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Speaker 1: they're doing. They're taking the points in a batchup of

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Speaker 1: two really bad teams. For me, I'm either taking the

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Speaker 1: Saint from staying away. It's a rare time. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take road talk and take the favorite. But just just

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Speaker 1: feels like the pros are step into a trap here

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Speaker 1: taking this Jets team, it's it's a little bit like there.

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Speaker 1: They saw Zach Whistle play a great half against that

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Speaker 1: Eagles team. They're like, you know what, maybe this kid

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Speaker 1: isn't as bad as he looked with that really lies

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Speaker 1: in that second half once the team's a jet Ustin

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Speaker 1: schemed against him, he could not do a single thing.

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Speaker 1: So the Saints, to me, that's that's the one of

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Speaker 1: the better coaching staffs and football they've been reeling. They

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Speaker 1: haven't one in weeks. This feels like a Seaanpagne special

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Speaker 1: where he just dominates. It's a bad team that is

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Speaker 1: the all opposite of what we've talked about on Tuesday. Yeah, yeah, definitely,

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Speaker 1: definitely one of those where I was waiting on the

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Speaker 1: injury news and I felt like, I like the Jets

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Speaker 1: coming into it, but if they're getting Comar back, they're

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Speaker 1: getting their own lineback. To me, this is a no

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Speaker 1: brainer bet taking that tralk with the favorite here in

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Speaker 1: the Saints. Even if five and a half do you wait,

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Speaker 1: like no to me because the six is such a

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Speaker 1: key number. Now I take I took the five and

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Speaker 1: a half. The the odds of it going up is

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Speaker 1: to me not It's I think it's gonna keep right

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Speaker 1: in between that line. Like the bookmakers don't want to

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Speaker 1: put it up to that six six and a half

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Speaker 1: because they know the professional are gonna coming heavy. They're

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Speaker 1: already getting professional money on the Jets team. There's there's

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Speaker 1: no reason for the move it up with that six.

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Speaker 1: I was so ready to bet the Jets. I was

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Speaker 1: ready to I love that. I love them coming in.

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Speaker 1: Trevor Simeon, Zach Wilson. Why are we even talking about

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Speaker 1: this game? Why are we talking about this game when

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Speaker 1: we could be talking about the Texans and Davis Mills

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Speaker 1: And when we talked about this another one on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: we didn't know Davis Mills was going to be the starter.

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Speaker 1: He is now maybe starting for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 1: This changes it pretty dramatically for me. He's terrible, I know,

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Speaker 1: damn it. I wanted to take this so bad. I

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Speaker 1: loved that we're getting points against the Seahawks team that

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Speaker 1: just isn't good again, they always beat the fourty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: Russell always donates fo nance historically. When is the seventeen

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Speaker 1: of five? Straight up? Some crazy statistic? I saw our

426
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: action never tweeted out man, I wanted to fade them

427
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 1: so bad, but I'm not gonna do it to the fans.

428
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it to you, Chad. This this

429
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 1: won't be one of our five, but I personally will

430
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 1: be ben in Houston. I'll take that trend that team

431
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 1: is just lose the finally week after playing the forty nine,

432
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: and I'll bet their moneyline. But logically it's I can't

433
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: tell people in good faith to put their money on

434
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 1: its Davis Mills kid. I made this line eight and

435
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: a half well until I got the news that he's out,

436
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: So technically right now I'm slaging it towards the Seahawks.

437
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 1: I think that's where the value is, but I'm just

438
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: not doing it. Not betting on the Seahawks team after

439
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 1: this is as inflated as you're gonna get with them

440
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: this season, like they're what they're four and eight for

441
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: four and nine maybe on the season, bad team and

442
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 1: all these points. I will take Houston, but there's just

443
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: isn't any logic back in Davis Mills. We don't know

444
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: we're gonna get this kid. He can have a great

445
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 1: one drive and then do nothing the rest of the game.

446
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: So that's the fear with betting the side. It's too

447
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: many unknowns. Really put a lot of money on this

448
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 1: Houston team. For the record, you and I are in

449
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 1: a contest. We choose our five best every week we

450
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 1: are required to take a bye. This may end up

451
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: being the bye week. I mean it might. Again, it's

452
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: hard to say because I I have like three or

453
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: four games I really like this week now that we've

454
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: made it this far end of the week. So it

455
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: is gonna be interesting with what we do on Sunday,

456
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: um because usually at this point in the week I

457
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 1: have seven I like. So you're definitely right that it's

458
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: less than we usually have. But we don't have a choice.

459
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: We have to use some certain week. We're gonna have

460
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: to use a bio week. So if it is this week,

461
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: so be it. But as you say, Dore, on Thursday,

462
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,919
Speaker 1: there are a these amount of games I do like

463
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: enough to put in. Well, I don't know what games

464
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 1: they are, because we've talked. We liked the Browns. I

465
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: guess if we can get him at two and a half.

466
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,359
Speaker 1: If the Browns, what the fuck Washington football team? Washington

467
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: football team, maybe the Raiders probably not alright, So of

468
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: the games we pinpointed on Tuesday, we're running out of

469
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 1: games that we love compared to games that we discussed,

470
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: and like, you're gonna try to tell me right now.

471
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 1: Like the Texans we liked when we thought it was

472
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor, not anymore. The Giants we loved the ten

473
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 1: and a half it was Mike Lennon. Now he's in

474
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: COVID protocols. It might be Jake from You're getting me.

475
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 1: I don't care. Still, you don't care why because it's irrelevant. No,

476
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: I've never made a bet on the Giant's team the

477
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 1: last four years because of who their quarterback was. They

478
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: haven't had a good quarterback in there since what Eli,

479
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: I mean, we're going on ten years here. If it's

480
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 1: being irrelevant, we've been on the Giants plug who the

481
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,199
Speaker 1: quarterback is. So I don't care. This is just a

482
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: pro number. You bet this number. You have a great

483
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 1: run blocking scheme team and the Giants going against one

484
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: of the worst blocking schemes defenses, and the Chargers ten

485
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: ten a half points. The fact that you just said

486
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: that quarterback might be out and I'm seeing books now

487
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: at ten nine and a half on this Shints team

488
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 1: makes me feeling better me, Like the other pros are

489
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: right there with me. No money is coming in on

490
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 1: the Giants, No tickets are coming on the Giants. We

491
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 1: have a reverse line of movement. Just a pro number.

492
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: You bet this game, win or lose. You don't really care,

493
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: Like it's as a profession you have to bet this

494
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: kind of number, especially when you look on paper and

495
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: you see that this line is inflated by three points,

496
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: just because again the public think Daniel Jones matters, Like

497
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 1: what is that had ever done? It's your career to

498
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: make you think he matters. So no, I'm not worried

499
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: at all. Who the quarterback is gonna be in this

500
00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: this game. Mhm. When you say it like that, I

501
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: feel like an idiot for thinking that Jake From would

502
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: would pull it off the board for me. I get

503
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 1: it though, Like who the hell knows anything about Jake

504
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 1: From He wasn't even that good in college. Um, but

505
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: you know, we saw Mike glennon last week against that

506
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: the Dolphins team. You can put a trash game back there.

507
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 1: I think you would have had the same report the

508
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: same result of what happened last week when they put

509
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: nine points up against Miami. So he he does nothing

510
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 1: to move, then you need needle from me. Um, obviously

511
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: I deal. That'd rather Daniel Jones, he is their starting quarterback.

512
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 1: But I don't adjust to three points off him being out.

513
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: I may be adjusted it by eight point. So that's

514
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: that's just my view on that team in their quarterback position.

515
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 1: I just don't really give it any value. Jake from

516
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,479
Speaker 1: To beat out Justin Fields to be the quarterback of Georgia,

517
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's true. That's just claim the fame and

518
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: he was that good. All right, Well it's not our

519
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: big balls. Better the week though. Honestly, I'd rather I

520
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 1: feel more comfortable people betting the Browns than I would

521
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 1: the Giants. Like the Giants. To me, it's just a

522
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: pro number. If you want to bet like a pro,

523
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 1: that's a that's a bet you have to make because

524
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: that's that's the kind of games we win. Like you know,

525
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: gross I felt walking into a sports book was that

526
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 1: Tuesday night we got dinner. After we got dinner, bet

527
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: again on the Giants, but on their money line, and

528
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 1: it was just like the grossers feeling never like it

529
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: whenever you make a bet, and the book, like the

530
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 1: teller says, are you sure. That's always a fun feeling. So, um,

531
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: it's rare they care about you. But when you're betting

532
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: on a team that ugly that they usually are like

533
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: are you sure you want to do this? And it's like, yeah,

534
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: I know. It's always sweet women like it's always he's like,

535
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: you know, like fifty two seven year old women. You

536
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: were just working a late night shifts and they're always

537
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 1: just so nice. They're like, oh my god, a thousand

538
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 1: dollars on the Giants money line? Are you sure? And

539
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: it's like yeah, it's it's okay, but yeah, exactly, exactly.

540
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 1: All right. We talked a lot about the four to

541
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: niners and the Bengals. Do you have anything more you

542
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: want to say about the Bills now that there are

543
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: three and a half? Yeah? I was, I was honestly

544
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: interested here what you said. We told people to take

545
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: that three and I saw this late late in this week.

546
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: Now that might be the most square bet of the week. Right.

547
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 1: It feels like all the money, all the tickets for

548
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: coming in. I was gonna say, like, chats we go

549
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: on the other side, now, are we are we being

550
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 1: too square taking this number? Um? The Bills are great

551
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: against zone defenses, and that's what the four The Buccaneers

552
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: are gonna run their secondary, They're gonna run his ZWN.

553
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: I saw someone tweet out which I'm probably end up

554
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: stealing for our Sunday show, Cold Beasley overprop of receptions.

555
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: He is incredible against his zone blocking defense that this

556
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: Buccaneers team runs. So if if you could get that

557
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: prop now again, usually don't put them up till late

558
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: in the week. I love Cold Beasley. They're projecting to

559
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 1: be their three and a half four receptions. I loved

560
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: that up to six, so that that's one of the

561
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: seeker plays this week against his Buccaneers defense. I like it.

562
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 1: I like previewing convinced me to live in a m

563
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: at actually network hq UM. So I think if you

564
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: can get the hook on the bills at three and

565
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 1: a half, which a lot of books are starting to show,

566
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 1: that's the number you want to take. I'm fair with

567
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 1: people waiting though, just because like again I'm looking at

568
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: it on the Action app right now. All this money,

569
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: all the tickets are coming in heavy on the Buccaneers,

570
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: and that to me, that's early in this week. Most

571
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: public doesn't start betting until the weekend. So yeah, because

572
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: I honestly could see it get bumped up when people

573
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: are gonna start throwing this in their teasers. People don't

574
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 1: care about teasing through zero. If they can get the

575
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: Buccaneers to plus three plus three and a half and

576
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: tease it the other way, they're gonna do that. So

577
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 1: to me, there's gonna be so much liability on this

578
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: number that the books are really gonna need this Bills team.

579
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: And I would love it more at four just in

580
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: the sense that we've had some bad luck with these

581
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 1: kickers man, and four is a more it lands more

582
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: often now than three does, just because again, it's either

583
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: landing on two two and a half like we've seen

584
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: it where two and a half's come such a big

585
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: number because these teams either go for two, they're missing

586
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: the extra points just wait on it. I honestly believe

587
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: will be able to get the four, and worst case scenario,

588
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: you just have to tease the Bills up like that's

589
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: what probably end up doing anyway. Um, But I just

590
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:04,199
Speaker 1: definitely want to ask you about it because I I

591
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: felt squares taking this number when I took the Buccaneers

592
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: minus three. Yea, My whole viewpoint was I don't like

593
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: fading Brady at home. I just don't. This season, we

594
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: have not gone against him at home and it's been

595
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: good to us. So it is interesting seeing that the

596
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 1: book tried to stay there at three, being like, you know,

597
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna take a stand here, and they moved off

598
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 1: of it professionals game and they bet the Buccaneers. That's

599
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 1: why the books that moved up three and a half

600
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: now and now a word from our friends at FanDuel.

601
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638
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: about twenty five games that we love for Sunday. No,

639
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: it's not that crazy, but again, any given week, I

640
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: feel like if you love or love five games, that's

641
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: a really good week. Most weeks, professionals might be only

642
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: bet one to two sides or totals. So any week

643
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: I come in like this and I really don't love

644
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: the board, And now we're sitting or Thursday, and I've

645
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: talked to enough professionals and they've given me more confidence

646
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: to my bets. It does kind of up it a

647
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: little bit where it's like, you know what I see

648
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: what they're seeing. I've looked at what they're looking at

649
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: on paper across the board. Yeah, we did that show

650
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: what ten am Tuesday morning. It's where you wake up

651
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: that early Tuesday, you're not still feeling gross after losing

652
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: that Bills that being like, oh, I'm ready to go. Yeah,

653
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: let's put ten betson. So it's definitely nice at the

654
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 1: end of the week reviewing all these games. All right, well,

655
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: let's review. We have two more games on the board.

656
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: The Bears game we didn't talk much about the other day,

657
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: but now we know Justin Field is starting. We know

658
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: that the Packers are favored by twelve and a half.

659
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: We know that when these two teams played earlier in

660
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: the year, Aaron Rodgers said, I still own you. They

661
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: won by ten on a couple of fluky plays. Look

662
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: bear down, cuit, Matt Mitchell. It's hard for me not

663
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,719
Speaker 1: to want to get the Bears in this game, I know,

664
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: but it's I just don't know how they're going to score.

665
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 1: We needed an out of those world performance from Justin

666
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: Field to keep that game close. Last time we still

667
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: you still couldn't get the back door, and I luckily

668
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: talked to you off that one. We both were looking at.

669
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: We liked it early in the week, and then came Sunday.

670
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: So there's some fishy about that Bears line. And what

671
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: was the Bears were up ten nothing. Maybe I don't

672
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: know if they scored a single point the rest of

673
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: the game. It was like one of those big flukey

674
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: things where Rogers just turned it on and then like

675
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: you just said it, you ran that ball into the

676
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: end zone. He said, I'm I still own you. God.

677
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 1: I want to take the Bears so bad, Like all week,

678
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: they're gonna be talking about that. They're gonna be piste off.

679
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: They're they're really gonna be gunning for him. Prime time

680
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 1: game teams usually show up in primetime games. Naggi's record

681
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: as a big dog is terrible. He's horrible against the

682
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: spread as a coach as a big underdog, like record

683
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: is everything is terrible? Now with Mitch Drobisky. How about

684
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: that Jesus crab, how about that it is true Rosky

685
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: Hall of Famer with an entirely different coach, Like we'll

686
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: see if you if you're really passionate about today morning,

687
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 1: I could maybe be talking to it. But just sitting

688
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: here right now, I know this won't be one of

689
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: my biggest five bets. It's I just don't fell good

690
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: a going against the Screen Bay team. They've made me

691
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: so much money this season and even when pros are

692
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,719
Speaker 1: fading them, I keep backing them. It keeps working out

693
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: for me like that. That one that really sticks out

694
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 1: was at Rams Green Bay matchup where the pros are

695
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: coming in so heavy on that Rams team on the road. Now,

696
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: I just did not get it, and they moved the

697
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: line all the way down, so it's sending here. It's

698
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: I'd feel better if we were getting thirteen and a half.

699
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 1: I know the bookmakers won't do that. They they'll get

700
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 1: destroyed by the professionals, so they might just let it

701
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: sit here at twelve all week. But if it gets

702
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: the thirteen and we can get then our contest, I

703
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: could probably be talking and taking this Bears team. Here's

704
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: a tweet from Bill Zimmerman, who is a producer for

705
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: Mad Dog Radio, also covers the Bears uh and has

706
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: a Bears podcast. Matt Niggs passing offense is averaging hundred

707
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: and seventy three point eight years per game. It's good

708
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 1: for last in the NFL by comparison. Sid Luckman, Hello, Sid, Hello,

709
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: Sid babohad that holding up right now? If you can't

710
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: see that. From ninety three to ninety seven, average hundred

711
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: eighty nine point five passing yards per game, said Luckman.

712
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: Still the greatest quarterback Chicago Bears history. Now, these are

713
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: these are dark days for the Bears fans, especially, like

714
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: you said, the fact you guys will have your first

715
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 1: round draft pick. It's I can't even talk about it.

716
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: It's stuff. It's so terrible. Every single time I remember

717
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: that we're losing, that there might be something good from it.

718
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 1: I forget that we've given away. We didn't give it away.

719
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: We got justin fields. But and believe me, worth it.

720
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: It's worth it. It's gonna be worth it all right. Then,

721
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 1: the last game to talk about Rams three point dogs

722
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: to the Arizona Cardinals, pro Joe's pro Joe's Alert, pro

723
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 1: Joe's pros Joe's Cards, getting of the bets, Rams getting

724
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: fifty of the money. We talked about like that's why

725
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: it was my Simon says bet Um. I thought this

726
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: line was going to move down again. I said, wait,

727
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 1: wait to see if you can get the plus three.

728
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 1: It's now down to plus two. A lot of books

729
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: down to plus one, and the half had a lot

730
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: of books with this Rams team. Um, just a pro game.

731
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: You take this number. The Cardinals are incredibly overinflated, their

732
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: values incredibly over inflated. We we believe in the Cardinals team.

733
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 1: I do think they're good. I don't think they're the

734
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 1: best team in I still have the Packers above them.

735
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 1: I still have Tampa Bay above them, especially when it

736
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 1: comes to playoff time. None of that's gonna change. I

737
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: do think that this Cardinals team is really good, but

738
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: they just feel like a year or two away, and

739
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 1: with Murray's health, I'm still unsure about him. Again, if

740
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: you look at that what they did on paper against

741
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: that Bears team, all their drives were started within the

742
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: thirty yard line of that there, so it was really

743
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: hard to take away anything from it. The pushback I've

744
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: heard from other professionals is stafford record against teams about

745
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 1: five hundred. He's horrible. Um historically just does not be team,

746
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 1: especially teams multiple games above five. It's again, I have

747
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: to look the step again. I don't want to just

748
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 1: say the wrong staff but apparently teams are four games

749
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: about five hundred. Stafford's like won one game, isn't our

750
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: ten year career. That's terrifying because we're literally been against

751
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: the team that's the best team right now in the NFC.

752
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: So I'm still on the Rams and still my Simon says,

753
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: bet um, but I I doubt you're gonna let me

754
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: make it one of our five. We we just we

755
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 1: haven't really believed in Stafford this season. We haven't really

756
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 1: been on that Rams train. So as much love as

757
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 1: I have where I just I just can't see it's

758
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 1: making us more of our five at this point because

759
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: we're not getting that plus three. That's that's what I wanted.

760
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 1: I wanted that good number. The fact that's down. It

761
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like we're getting good value. Right But on

762
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: Sunday divisional matchup home team less than a field goal,

763
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: maybe it was the Rams at plus three and a

764
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: half and plus three. At some point you gotta think

765
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:45,399
Speaker 1: about betting and Cardinals. I know, I just I feel like,

766
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: again you talked about this regression. If you look on paper,

767
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: it's like this Cardinals team has a historically one of

768
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: the best defenses ever this year. On offense, James Conner

769
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: has turned in from the guy that kind of fell

770
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: out with that Pittsburgh team to being what the number two,

771
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: number three running back and all football this season with

772
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 1: like his total points like per touch No. One gets

773
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: the end zone more often than he does this season,

774
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: He's been absolutely incredible for that team. So I told

775
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 1: you last last year. I'm I'm definitely undervaluing this Cardinal

776
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: team and the Patriots team. That's that's kind of been.

777
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: That's me in the butt a couple of times this season,

778
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 1: like I try to zig on that team when I

779
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 1: should be just riding with him. You're right, I'm I

780
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: probably should take a step back and take this Cardinal

781
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: team now that especially there at one and a half,

782
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: that's that's a really good value on the home team.

783
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: But I just can't do it. Feels like this is

784
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 1: a scheduled loss for this Cardinals team. Honestly, I like

785
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 1: when I can come close to convincing you of something

786
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: you almost slipped me, honestly, because it's true, Like your

787
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: logic there is sound, all right. So as we head

788
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: into the weekend um to recap, we want to wait

789
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 1: on the bills. We hope we can get him at

790
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: plus four as the game gets closer to kick off.

791
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: We're really liking Washington football team. We like the Giants.

792
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 1: It's a pro's number. You just bet it. Despite what uh,

793
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: some of the older generation ticket takers might say, or

794
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: what their concerns might be when we make that bet. Um,

795
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 1: we're leading to the Browns pretty heavily of minus two

796
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 1: and a half. You like the Rams as a Signmon says,

797
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 1: but as the number moves, I'm less and less convinced.

798
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: It's kind of it right now. Yeah, it's a little bear.

799
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: It's a little bear, not a lot. I love the

800
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: Raiders still, but it's a public dog. I remain committed. Sorry,

801
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: you wanna get the money line? Round robin, my friend?

802
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: Why don't we do the money line? Round robin? Dog?

803
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 1: Your dog? Your dog blocks dog? Washington football team Chad

804
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: does me so last week going four and five. I

805
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: don't want to hear any ship this week. All right,

806
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: we're gonna give you some ugly dogs, just bad. Don't

807
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: be d m and be like, are you sure about

808
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: taking the Charger's money line? Are you sure about taking

809
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's money line? Just fucking do it? All right, We're

810
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 1: giving you dogs, your short dogs, one ugly big dog.

811
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,720
Speaker 1: So let's start off with it's it's it is gross

812
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: this week at l Atlanta Falcons. That nine's moved down

813
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: from plus three. You're not getting any of great value

814
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: anymore in the number. It's a public dog. We don't care.

815
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: We're throwing their money line in last week after a

816
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: bad loss. Then Washington. I won't make people put Detroit

817
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: in because we don't know what's going on the flu.

818
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: I'm seeing that line all with the plus ten. Now, uh,

819
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: with Detroit, that's god. I want to take that money

820
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 1: line so bad. But if we don't know who they're

821
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 1: gonna have any starters, if we don't know if their

822
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: offense lines and be healthy, I can't make you bettered

823
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,399
Speaker 1: on Thursday. But Sunday that might be one of those

824
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 1: I throw in with Detroit if they're healthy. Yeah, we

825
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: have a lander right now. We have Washington football team.

826
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 1: We're gonna throw the Giants in there. Wait and see

827
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: if the Bengals become a big plus number, we're gonna

828
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 1: put that in there as well. Like we'll we'll get

829
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: Bangals as a home dog. I know the Joe Burrow thing,

830
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: but at that point you're getting good value there. I

831
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: don't know what when I would take Jimmy g as

832
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 1: a big road favorite so you can get plus one ten.

833
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: I really like that with this Bangals team. Let's throw

834
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 1: the bills in there. We just talked about the public

835
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 1: sides this week. You want to go against the public.

836
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: We talked about all the time when there's a team that,

837
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 1: especially someone that we talk all the time, the public

838
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 1: does stupid ship. The dumbest thing they do is they

839
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: pick one team and they'll make them in all their parlays,

840
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: all of their teasers. That's what the Bucks feel like

841
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: this week. It feels like everyone's gonna throw them in

842
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: all their bets. So that that's another one. I like.

843
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: So that's the fourth one, our final one. Chad just

844
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: talked about it. He doesn't love it. It's the Rams.

845
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 1: You're giving me a plus number of divisional matchup. This

846
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: game is gonna be a coin flip. It'll be fun

847
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,760
Speaker 1: to end the week with our money line parlay on Monday,

848
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 1: So that's will be the first time we're doing. I

849
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,919
Speaker 1: like throwing that the end of the week RAMS team

850
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 1: in there. You can head you out if you want,

851
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,240
Speaker 1: because you're gonna have a really good plus out, especially

852
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: if this giant spect comes through are this money line

853
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: parley is gonna be a winner no matter what. Uh,

854
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 1: let's talk about Survivor. Last week we were telling people

855
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: take the Bucks. I think that was a good one.

856
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 1: That was a real good one too. Yeah, it feels

857
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 1: like an easy week, like these certain teams are gonna

858
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,959
Speaker 1: have left. Hopefully haven't used them yet. Tennessee Titans coming

859
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: off of bye week at home against the Jaguars. Sure,

860
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 1: I might take the Jaguars number and think they'll cover.

861
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: I can't see this team winning, especially against a variable

862
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: team that just bullies these teams. So matchup wise, this

863
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: is a good, good matchup for the Tennessee team. Uh,

864
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 1: if you haven't used them yet, this feels like this

865
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: is it, like you kind of have to use them.

866
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 1: I want to give people the Chargers, but I just

867
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: have this weird feeling about that game, and it just

868
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 1: seems like such a Chargers game. They lose um after

869
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,399
Speaker 1: such a big win. They've been so inconsistent this year.

870
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 1: So if you're stuck and this is the best option

871
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: you have, I get it with the Chargers. I just

872
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 1: personally I would not do it. And the final ones

873
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 1: green Bay. You're getting green Bay at home in Lambeau.

874
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 1: If you still for some reason having to use them,

875
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 1: this is this is probably as good as it gets.

876
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 1: To me. Again, maybe you could save it for a

877
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: Detroit matchup. But to me this is this is a

878
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: no brainer. Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game at home. Yeah,

879
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: maybe they don't cover that number, but there's a reason

880
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: we didn't put the money line round, Robin. These are

881
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: just aren't the game. Darren loses, he'll lose the one

882
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: o'clock at home random game. He won't lose the prime

883
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: time game in front of those fans. It's it's too

884
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: many variants to really go again. So to me, the

885
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 1: easiest ones this week Tennessee, Green Bay and the Chargers.

886
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Packers. Maybe if said

887
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: Luckman were playing quarterback it would be a different story. Yeah,

888
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 1: Or if you had Walter Payton as a running back.

889
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: I mean those things would help sid Luckman, Walter Payton,

890
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: If Roland Herper was lining up at fullback, if I

891
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 1: guess that linebacker, if Bucks was playing linebacker, if Richard

892
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: Dent was on the end, if Gary Fencik and Doug

893
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: Plank were the safeties, Oh my goodness, those funny visuals.

894
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 1: Two of those old linebackers. Like he was just huge,

895
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: especially because his pads are so big. But I think

896
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 1: about what if he was playing nowadays, he had to

897
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: tackle you know, Tyreek Hill coming across the middle like

898
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: rescupes Tyree Hill. That's why they change all those rules.

899
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 1: I mean literally that tyre Khill would be dead if

900
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 1: a guy like Dick Buckets hid. Yes, if Doug, if

901
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: Dick Buckets hit Tyreek Hill once, you might decapitate him.

902
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 1: Seriously though, I always think about those kind of players. Alright, Simon,

903
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 1: we've said let's let's get the hell out of here

904
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: because I'm sweating. I'm about to fall apart. This has

905
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: been the favorites from the Volume and Podcast Network. Hey

906
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: is Simon Hunter. I am Shadow Millman. Plus we've got

907
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: a special bonus mini episode featuring Jay Boy Stucky Simon.

908
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: We're talking about college football playoff. We're giving a little

909
00:43:56,280 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 1: taste of Army Navy Service Academy rivalry for or producer

910
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell, who's doing in a professional job because

911
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 1: he has nothing else to focus on since the bill

912
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: is lost so terribly the other night. It's not fair.

913
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 1: It's not fair. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever

914
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:18,800
Speaker 1: you get your podcast. We will be back on Tuesday.

915
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 1: Until then, I love you,