WEBVTT - Wind and Solar Scale Up as China Builds Megabases 0:00:00.360 --> 0:00:03.760 This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:07.560 the BNAF podcast. The Chinese government has introduced one of 0:00:07.600 --> 0:00:12.200 the world's most ambitious renewable energy plans, targeting one thousand, 0:00:12.320 --> 0:00:16.279 two hundred gigawatts of wind and solar installations. To help 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:18.720 them get there, over the past three years, China has 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.600 announced three successive batches of projects which will rely on 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:27.560 some very very large renewable energy projects called megabases. Each 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:30.920 megabase will produce a minimum of one gigawat. To put 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.360 this in context, you could expect to see a project 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.960 in Germany at around fifteen megawats, or in the US 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:41.519 it perhaps maybe fifty megawatts. So between now and twenty thirty, 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.400 China's nearer term goal is to have these megabases add 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.040 up to four hundred and fifty five gigawatts of clean energy. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.600 The projects will largely include wind and solar, but they'll 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.000 be aided by new or retrofitted coal fired power stations 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.400 to help with intermittency. To tell us about these megabases, 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:01.680 I am joined by two analysts from b and EF's 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:05.200 Beijing office, Shan Yu Chen and Tianni Zoo. They're going 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.440 to explain what's included in these three batches of projects, 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:10.720 and they're going to get into some of the implications 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.520 such as the impact that these projects have had on 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:17.559 solar module and wind turbine manufacturers. To access the report 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:22.199 titled China's Unprecedented four hundred and fifty five gigawatt Energy 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.039 Megabase Plan B and EF subscribers are going to be 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.759 able to find it at BNF dot com or at 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.920 bn EF on the Bloomberg terminal. Subscribe to the show 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:32.880 for updates and give us a review to share us 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:35.920 with others. Right now, let's jump into our conversation with 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:49.160 Chen Yu and Tianni. Welcome to switch. Sean, nice to 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:50.080 have you here, tian. 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:51.480 Ye, nice to be here with you. 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:54.360 Dana and Han You welcome to the show as well. 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:56.600 Hello Dana, good to be here. 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:00.320 So we're here to talk about megabases, and let's start 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.280 with the definition. What what makes something a megabase? 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:08.120 Yes, so megabases refer to all those wind and solar 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:12.320 projects that is over one gigawatts per projects and they 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:16.400 are mainly located in deserts and wastelands in China. 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:20.960 So the Chinese government have targets for renewable energy rollout 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:23.799 can you first of all define what those targets are 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:26.960 and then explain how megabases fit into reaching these. 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:32.320 Yes, Chinese government sets a very ambitious target of reaching 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:36.120 cumulative one thousand and two hundred gigawatts of wind and 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:40.640 solar installation by twenty thirty and off this target, the 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.280 aim is to roll out four hundred and fifty five 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:47.720 gigawtts of wind and solar megabases before twenty thirty and 0:02:48.280 --> 0:02:52.799 Chinese governments aim to install the first two hundred gigawatts 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:56.840 renewable megabase between twenty twenty one to twenty five and 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:01.200 to install the remaining two hundred and fifty five gigawatt's 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.720 renewable megabase between twenty twenty six to twenty thirty. 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.440 So we all know in order to actually reach a 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:10.120 target there need to be several policies in place in 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:13.480 order to create the incentives for companies to actually do 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.160 the things that are required for this level of installation. 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:18.760 So what are the national policies in China that were 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:22.919 introduced to drive the rollout of renewables to reach the targets? 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:28.160 As the pivotone national strategy to boost renewable capacity, megabases 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:32.320 are mentioned in all of China's government key carbon and 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:37.800 renewable policies. China's National Development and Reform Commission and the 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:42.160 National Energy Administration announced the first badge of megabased projects 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:45.800 in twenty twenty one, which required a total of ninety 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:50.000 seven gigawats of wind and solar projects to be commissioned 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.600 in twenty twenty three. Project list of the second badge 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:57.920 was delivered about half a year later in twenty twenty two, 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.680 and in February twenty two three, the list of the 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:05.560 third badge was issued, different from the first batch, which 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:09.960 had a total capacity disclosed in public. The letter. Two 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:13.640 badges had not been disclosed on national levels, so we 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:17.560 have no idea how many capacities included in these two badges. 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:22.520 To now, BNEF has tracked thirty eight gigawatts in the 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:26.480 second batche and fifty three giquads in the third from 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:30.760 the public sources. As for the detailed policies, there have 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:34.640 been three key points on the national level that highlighted 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:39.000 megabases so far. The first one Action Plan for Carbon 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:42.640 pig before twenty thirty, released by the State Council and 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:47.440 aligned to develop megabases to contribute to China's target to 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.320 have one thousand, two hundred gig board of wind and 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.960 solar capacity by twenty thirty and the second one is 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:58.000 also from the NDERC and the AA issue the fourteenth 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:03.480 five year Modern Energy System Plan, which goes for acceleration 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:08.440 of the establishment of renewable megabases on deserts and wastelands 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:12.919 a lesbian list also from the NDRC and the AA, 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:17.120 together with other administrations from the central level. The fourteenth 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:21.000 five year Renewable Plan maps out the Megabase pipeline across 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:25.160 seven regions of Chriss, China and states that clean power 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:29.720 should account for over half of transmitted electricitic volume on 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.840 All new lines planned were commissioned during twenty twenty one 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:34.919 and twenty twenty five. 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.200 So batches were announced in twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two, 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.680 and again in twenty twenty three. Do you expect that 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.479 there will be an additional batch announced in twenty twenty 0:05:43.480 --> 0:05:47.080 four or is what has already been planned? Essentially what 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:48.880 is going to be built? 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.920 The three batches that has already been announced add up 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:56.599 to one eighty eight gigawatts that corresponds to the two 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.520 hundred gigawatts I mentioned earlier that is set to be 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:04.120 installed between twenty two and one to five. We do 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:07.240 believe that there will be future batches of megabases, but 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:08.440 we don't know exactly when. 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.120 So the first batch of megabases was actually set for 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:14.360 completion by the end of twenty twenty three. Can you 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:18.400 talk about the different composition of renewables that went into this, 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:20.320 I mean pretty much how much of it was solar 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:21.400 and how much of it was wind. 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.840 So from the first batch of megabases, it contains forty 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:29.359 five gigawtts of wind, fifty one giglets of PV, and 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.919 one gigotts of solar thermal, and most of these power 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:37.320 sources are separate, not collocated. The wind capacity mostly locate 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:41.719 in inner Mongolia where the wind resources are very strong, and. 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:45.680 As Sharing has stated on the prev capacity of fifty 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.839 one gigats in the first batch, the northwestern provinces, which 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:54.880 enjoys more sunshine and greater land availability, account for sixty 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.760 three percent of the total plant solar capacity. 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:02.200 And as for the wing megabase projects, we don't think 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:05.400 that all of the wind megabased projects will achieve the 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:08.520 step line that Dana you mentioned earlier. At the end 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.440 of twenty foy three because of land use issues. For example, 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:17.080 there's a two gigawoods megabase projects in west Inner Mongolia. 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:21.120 The developer violated the forest land use regulation and they 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.520 need to resolve those issues before they can get fully commissioned. 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.960 So from our database, our database show that this project 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:31.800 is still under construction and not commissioned. Apparently they've missed 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:33.800 the deadline at the end of twenty foury three. 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.440 So you mentioned that these megabases are being built on 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.640 areas that are otherwise not used for something else, and 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:43.280 you actually referenced the project in Inner Mongolia. Can you 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.480 talk about where they are located for the most part 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:48.640 of most of them in Mongolia or most of them 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:51.720 further west, further east, and really how far away are 0:07:51.800 --> 0:07:55.320 the megabases from ultimately the end consumers who are going 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:56.560 to be requiring this power. 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:01.200 From our analysis, we've found that out of the three 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:05.600 batches of megabases, fifty eight percent of the capacity is 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.320 used for local consumption and forty two of them is 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:13.960 used for transporting to other provinces. Most of the wind 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:18.200 and solar megabased projects are located in the northwest areas 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:22.120 of China, where there are a lot of wastelands and deserts. 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.600 Up until this point, we have largely talked about that 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.680 first batch that was coming out. Let's talk now about 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.040 the second batch. So what is the composition of that 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:31.120 in terms of wind and solar? 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:35.160 As is stated previously, there is no official number under 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:39.280 total capacity for the second batche. From provincial governments and 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:44.760 public sources, we have tracked thirteen nine gigawots, comprising of 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.480 fifteen gigawotes of wind and twenty three giguards of PV 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:52.679 and point four giga wots of solar thermal. Most projects 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:56.000 in the second badge are located in northern China and 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:01.000 fifty four percent of project in capacity will generation to 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:03.679 Centro and eastern China. 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:06.560 And that brings us to the third, the most recently 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.000 announced batch. What is likely to happen there? 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:14.360 The third betch megabase projects are mainly located along the 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:18.120 Yellow River and as of July twenty twenty three, there 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:22.960 has been fifty three gigowotes disclosed, including twenty point six 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:26.240 gigotts of wind, thirty two gigle wots of PV and 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:30.400 point point gigots of solar thermal. Of these, there was 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:35.520 four point nine gigottes of offshore PV projects from Townshup Province. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.480 So I think that's really interesting because we're talking now 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:41.960 about offshore PV. I mean, you'd already established that these 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:44.679 require vast amounts of land, so they've had to locate 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:48.800 them further west than maybe most of the population actually lives. 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:51.320 But then this one in yang Zoo Province, and for 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:53.720 those who are not familiar with the geography, that's on 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.440 the east coast of China, actually bordering the Yellow Sea, 0:09:56.760 --> 0:10:01.240 and there is an offshore solar megabase planned for that location. 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:03.000 Can you tell us a little bit more about that? 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.600 Again with a quick background for those who are not 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:10.559 familiar with Tansu Province, this province is one of the 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:16.000 most densely populated provinces in the country, containing major cities 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:20.640 like Nanjing and Chanzho. Due to the rapid solar deployment 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:24.959 in recent years, land constraints have urged developers to look 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:29.920 offshore to accommodate solar farms. However, the prevalent design in 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:34.880 China's offshore PV projects is fixed pile foundation and built 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:38.640 in intertitle areas rather than the floating system in deep 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:43.400 water and large provinces along the eastern coast have very 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:47.320 big plans on offshore PV. Shando only aims to have 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:51.480 twelve gigawottes of this kind by twenty twenty five. Jamsho 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:55.160 plants have five gigawatts of offshore PV by twenty twenty 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.760 five and another five gigaottes by twenty twenty seven. Other 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:04.880 provinces like Changing and Juddsown have also released relevant policies 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:08.840 and pilot projects. We'll seeking what level of shore PV 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:12.400 installation from the coastal provinces in the near future, but 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:16.200 there are still big challenges to be tackled, such as 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:21.720 the corrosive salt and constantly moving water presenting technical problems 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:25.960 for equipment, construction, operation, and maintenance. 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:29.200 So tell me a little bit about the companies that 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.160 are actually developing these megabases. 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.680 Most developers of the first batch of wind and solar 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:40.320 projects are state owned enterprises affiliated to either central government 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:44.680 or local government. Based on our analysis, central or local 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:48.960 state owned enterprises accounts for eighty eight percent of the 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:52.840 total wind installations and ninety two percent of solar, and 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:56.959 private developers are only twelve percent of wind and nine 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:58.040 percent of solar. 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:03.440 So This is an incredible amount of generation capacity that's 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.520 going to be installed and invariably then that means we 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:10.080 need to have a equally capable grid to connect to it. 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:12.959 So with the introduction of high voltage grids, which is 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.440 something that actually our colleagues and Jee mentioned on a 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:18.280 previous show about grid connectivity, can you just talk a 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.839 little bit about what some of the plans are for 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:23.600 grid rollout and really whether or not you expect it 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.439 to keep pace with the megabase buildout. 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.600 The ultra high VOLDE transmission lines are critical to connect 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.520 megabased projects to demand centers. The central government planned to 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:39.280 send sefty five percent of megabase generation outside of where 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:43.440 they're located. Nine new lines potentially utilized for the first 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:47.319 batch have been in place, with fourteen nine yugowot's out 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.800 of ninety seven gigs supplying to other regions, and most 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.840 of these lines have the utilization rate under sixty percent 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.079 in twenty twenty two. The commissioning of the first batch 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:02.240 will drive up the utility rate, but not very in 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:06.640 a significantly way, so there is little fear of having 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:13.040 curtailment caused by transmission lines. Besides the existing nine uchevieliance. 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:17.480 We ask may their stident needs another eighteen to twelve 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.880 uchvieliance to support the future badges. By the end of 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.880 twenty twenty three, the Central officials have approved seven new 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:28.719 lines for megabases, which are all targeted to be commissioned 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:29.840 by twenty twenty five. 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.480 So you had mentioned kurtailment, but I actually want to 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.679 talk about the other end of the spectrum, which has 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.200 to do with the risk posed by renewables to security 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:42.280 of supply. If there is a large wind farm or 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:45.440 a large solar farm and we don't have the right 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:48.080 amount of sun, or the wind isn't blowing as hard, 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:52.080 and there is a large number of people and companies 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.800 that are dependent upon the power coming out of these megabases, 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.120 what is the plan to handle supply? 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.199 That is a great question, Dane, because winded solar energy 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.880 is unstable, and especially wind is more unpredictable. So for 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:11.520 great safety and stability, megabased projects that exports to other 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:15.880 regions are required to collocate with round the clock dispatchable 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.120 technologies such as coal and energy storage, and a guidance 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:24.320 from National Energy and Administration says that the capacity of 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:28.000 supporting coal plants should be less than thirty percent of 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:32.760 collocated renewable energy capacity. So in total, we counted seventy 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:37.920 nine gigawads of megabased projects that are exporting their generation. Therefore, 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.480 it'll include up to twenty three point seven gigawats of 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.560 supporting coal plants to be collocated with them. 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:46.920 So let's stay on the topic of coal for a second. 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.080 You're bringing this up as a source of flexible capacity, 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.640 which is required in order to enable this entire complex 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.000 project to actually happen. Can you talk about some of 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.720 the ways the use of coal is actually quite different 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:02.520 in this circumstance and what this means for the aging 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.520 fleet of coal fired power stations across China. 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:09.200 In the near term, China relies on copower to provide 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.920 the firm capacity to deal with the intermittent renewable production 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.160 in the power system. The main challenge is that most 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:21.239 of current copower plans in China were designed to carry baseloads. 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:25.280 Note for flexible service, China is do in the very 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:30.400 early stages of retrofitting the traditional generators. The government does 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:34.880 plan to retrofit two hundred gigle wots of the existing 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.680 co fight capacity to provide flexible service. 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:42.920 So you'd mentioned that these projects are being installed largely 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:44.800 in part by the Chinese government, So talk to me 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.360 a little bit about how energy prices are actually structured 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:47.840 and agreed. 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.240 As we have discussed previously, there are two types of 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:56.280 power consumption for nigbased generation for local use and for 0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.120 transmission to other provinces. As for the power price, this 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:05.280 generation for local use will have the coreference rate, which 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:09.600 has very good economics for projects. In contrast, those four 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:14.080 export to other regions. The power exchange administrations from the 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:19.120 sending province and the receiving end they negotiate the power prices, 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:23.400 which are normally lower than the coreference rate and affected 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.840 by the fluctuation of power market prices in the receiving province. 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:30.840 So, sticking on the topic of prices, we had a 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.760 podcast we talked to our colleague Jenny Chase about solar 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:35.640 and one of the things she brought up was that, 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.800 in particular, the modules coming out of China were record 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.840 low prices. One has to assume that megabases have had 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.240 a role to play in creating demand for wind and solar. 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.920 Can you talk a bit more about both of these 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:52.960 industries and what that really means for manufacturers and for 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.600 the prices of the wind and solar modules and turbines. 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.800 Let's begin with solar. The module assembly CAUs T has 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.560 been expanded very fast during the last two years. Investors 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:09.879 were stimulated by very ambitious targets from the official site. Signally, 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.960 the downstream demand is certain and very large. In our 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:18.640 latest PV market outlook published earlier this week, we estimate 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.840 there were four hundred and forty four giglets of solar 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.120 installed in twenty twenty three around the globe. China PV 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:29.320 market hit another record by accounting for over sixty percent 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:33.240 of the global total. The strong momentum was mainly driven 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:37.240 by the falling mojor prices as you stated, megabase push 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:41.399 and the booming's moll scial market, and this for twenty 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.879 twenty four, we expect the PV edition in China will 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:49.040 increase two two hundred and fifty five gigots in alternating 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.359 current or three hundred fifteen giglets in direct current. The 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:58.520 oversupply has resulted in mojor price collapsing, making rooftop solar 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:03.240 more affordable. Low cost modules will enable growth in emerging 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:07.920 markets like Africa and Latin America, where Brazil, for example, 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:12.359 is seeing commercial residential PV boom, and if we go 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.359 back to the one thousand, two hundred gig world go 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:20.160 these target is merely the task by twenty thirty, which 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:24.639 is far from supporting net zero by twenty six the 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:29.080 project pipeline is sufficient. In China, benef project database shows 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:32.439 at least three hundred giga lottes of solar projects and 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:36.760 the construction. This number has not counted this small scale market, 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.600 which has contributed more than helf of the menual built 0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:44.840 since twenty twenty one. Generally, our expectation shows a growing 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:49.040 trend throughout twenty thirty. In China market, a total of 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:53.240 two tero loots of PV is to be installed from 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:55.439 twenty twenty four to twenty thirty. 0:18:56.000 --> 0:19:00.080 As for wind market, the biggest impact of megabase pro 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:04.200 is that the implementation helped further drive down the average 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.160 wind turbine price per megawatts in China. 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:08.440 First, the bigger. 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:12.280 Turbines can better capture strong wind resources in the deserts 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:16.480 and wasteleands. Although it's more expensive per turbine, but it's 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:20.760 actually cheaper permegobots. And as we mentioned many times before 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:25.440 megabased projects are large, requiring a lot of large turbines 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:27.240 and utilize the economic. 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:28.080 Of scale trauma. 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:33.040 Manufacturers can offer lower prices compare with supplying two smaller projects. 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:37.480 So these megabases are going in adding a huge amount 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.960 of capacity. Does the demand for these projects actually exist? 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:42.960 When it comes to than consumers. 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:45.840 There won't be a lot of troubles for the first 0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:51.520 badge generation consumed locally except Ceiling and Shinhai, which have 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:54.639 limited power demand growth in the near term, but for 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:58.920 the fulling badges, the consumption challenge will be severe as 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:02.280 the local power or demand in Northwestern regions may not 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:07.479 keep up with additional generation. BNF estimates sixty seven percent 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.359 of generation in the second and third batch to be 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:15.639 consumed locally. The officials are urged to attract more investment 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:20.800 on manufacturing industry to consume the megabas generations. JENNA is 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:24.480 on the trajectory to hit one than two hundred gig 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.800 votes in twenty twenty four, but due to this rapid 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:32.399 deployment in recent years, there have already had curtailment in 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:36.840 Northwestern provinces in the last year. It may aggrevate this year. 0:20:37.119 --> 0:20:41.960 The AAA is working on Loco great network system upgrade 0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:46.159 and urging more flexible capacities to be built collocated with 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:47.480 renewable projects. 0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:51.280 So final question with these batches that have been announced, 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:55.680 when should the last of the announced batches actually be 0:20:55.720 --> 0:20:57.000 completed and online? 0:20:57.440 --> 0:21:00.000 Dan, A very very good question. We don't know that, 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:04.160 and so we know exactly when it'll be finished construction 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:06.920 and online. But the total number is the four hundred 0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:10.000 and fifty five gig awards of Windows Solar mega based 0:21:10.040 --> 0:21:12.679 projects have to go online before twenty thirty. 0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:15.080 So we will see what happens between now and twenty 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.399 thirty and whether China overachieves their target and does it sooner. 0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:21.200 Tiany and Chianyu, thank you very much for coming on 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.720 the show today and telling me more about these mega 0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:26.040 developments in solar and wind in China. 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:27.560 Thank you, Dana, thank you. 0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:39.600 Switched On is produced by Cam Gray with production assistance 0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:43.280 from Kamala Shelling and Lushi Karunorate. Bloomberg ne EF is 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:46.399 a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. 0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:49.160 This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed, 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:53.000 as investment, a vice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:56.000 to an investment or other strategy. BLOOMBERGUINNIAF should not be 0:21:56.040 --> 0:21:59.840 considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.920 Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes 0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:06.679 any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness 0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:09.679 of the information contained in this recording, and any liability 0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:12.399 as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed