WEBVTT - NFL Week 6 Best Bets (Ep. 116) 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.080 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:19.040 your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:22.120 Harris eighty. It's time to talk about our week six 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.240 best bets for the NFL season. Here's me to do 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.840 that is Benny Richardi from FTN. Find him on Twitter 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:30.480 at Benny R eleven. Benny, thanks for joining me. How 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:30.800 you doing? 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.520 I'm doing good man. It's an interesting week coming up here. 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.200 Some some good games to bet on, some other ones 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:38.800 that I don't really know what I want to. 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:40.400 Do with, so I'm just kind of avoiding them. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.479 But again, the good thing is the book's got to 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:43.879 make a line for all of them. We just got 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:45.040 to find one or two that we like. 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.159 I feel like this week is harder. I just I 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:50.920 don't have a good enough sense for a lot of 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:52.400 these games. Like I look at a lot of these 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:54.160 games usually, you know, you we were just talking about 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:56.120 how we do opening lines, right, you do you know 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:59.520 a big video I do podcast, and how like I 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.720 generally feel like there's usually I don't know, four or five, 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.080 maybe six games I have kind of a strong reaction 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:06.360 to it. This week, I didn't. 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:06.760 This week. 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.080 I was very much like ah, these are these are 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:10.600 kind of sharp. You feel the same way. 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.080 Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of those 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.319 games that have the hook on the on the other side, 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:16.959 Like if it was three, I'd be like, oh, I'm 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.560 definitely taking this, But like that hooks a big deal, man, 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:21.039 when you got the three and a half's there or 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:23.240 even some of them are at four, like the you know, 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:24.679 like one of them I think we're gonna talk. 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.600 About in a little bit here with with Dallas. 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:29.480 Like those those are key numbers, and those numbers like 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:32.119 they change a lot there, you know. I mean I 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:35.039 I think that numbers are in that area are even 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.160 more important than people are making a big deal. Oh 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.520 Carolina was favored to start the week and now they're 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.320 the other minus one to plus one. 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:44.080 That to me, that's the melting move. 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:44.959 Nothing move. 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.480 Yeah, Like it doesn't matter to me when that happens. 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.880 But you know, you go from from three to three 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:51.680 and a half or three to four and a half 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.520 like that one and a half one point right there, 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:55.680 much bigger deal to me. 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:57.240 And we got a lot of those this week. 0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.880 So absolutely, I'm hoping I'm not on the wrong side 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:02.080 of a bunch of hooks on something that's basically what I'm. 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.920 Saying on here. We'll find out soon enough, as you 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:06.880 guys know, with this one, we talk about each of 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.080 our three best bets for the weekend, can be spread, 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:11.240 can be total, can be moneylined if we want, and 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.880 then we're going to quickly run through the remaining games 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.400 before we get into a couple of housekeeping things again. 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.320 This podcast, as you guys surely know by now, is 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:20.639 brought to you by bet MGM, and I want to 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:22.240 tell you about their latest offer. You can bet ten 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:25.079 dollars and you win two hundred dollars in free bets 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:27.119 if the team you bet on in an NFL game 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.360 scores a touchdown. Okay, bet ten dollars either side wherever 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.200 you want to go. 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You 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.040 guys know how to enter by now I'll get it. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.480 Was the review for the show Apple Podcasts or cast 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:04.919 box and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.680 review if you are subscribed to our YouTube channel YouTube 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.239 dot com slash Betting Pros counts as three times the entries. 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:13.000 All right, Benny, Before we get into it, I'm gonna 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:15.200 run through how we did last week. Our guest Scott 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:18.240 Bagman went one, one and one. He hit on the 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:20.360 Pats and Texans over thirty nine and a half. He 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:22.280 missed on the Vikings laying nine and a half to 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.800 the Lions, and then he pushed on the Packers, laying 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.079 three to the Bengals, which I'm sure his heart was 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.040 in his throat throughout that day. I had another positive day, 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.720 third week in a row. Here I hit on the Eagles, 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:34.359 getting three and a half from the Panthers, and the 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.400 Jets and the Falcons over forty five and a half. 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.080 But the train on the Broncos under finally ended, and 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.160 I missed on the under thirty nine and a half 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.160 with the Broncos and the Steelers. But it's been a 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:45.800 couple of good weeks here, seven and two over the 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.520 last three, Benny, So if this goes downhill, I will 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.200 be blaming you. But it's fine. We're gonna be using 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:53.160 the lines. I'll check the lines of betting pros come 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:55.560 but obviously it's all over the place with the various books, 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.400 and I will point it out. Benny, you are the guest. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.520 You get to get us started. What's your favorite bet 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:02.400 here of the weekend? 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:05.000 So my favorite bet of the week is actually the 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.800 Cincinnati Bengals on the road against Detroit in one of 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.360 those games where the hook is on the other side 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.160 from what I was talking about here. So I'm actually 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.480 willing to lay the three and a half here with Cincinnati. 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:20.000 Cincinnati has a top nine rated offense a top seven 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:24.599 rated defense. You know, when I originally looked at this line, 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:26.760 I said, oh, this must be the line in case 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:29.280 Joe Burrow doesn't play because they had to take him 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:31.520 to the hospital after the last game, some kind of 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.880 throat contrusion or something that happens. He did finish the game. 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:37.800 He's been practicing all week. I just thought that the 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:40.039 three and a half was just way, way too low 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:40.800 of a number here. 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:42.400 You know, you look at this Detroit team. 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.240 Most people in their power rankings have Detroit and like 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:47.360 the bottom four, the bottom five of the league. Now, 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:49.560 there are four or five teams that are just absolutely 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:53.000 horrible football teams that depending on which power ranking you use, 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:55.160 on which site you're looking at, but it's the same 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:57.320 five teams that are basically down there, with Detroit being 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.520 one of them. Cincinnati right now is you know, you 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.320 look at PFF, you look at some of the other 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:05.360 rating systems out there, this is a top ten overall team. 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.200 Good on both sides of the football here. 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:09.520 One of the things that their defense is really good 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:11.800 at is stopping to run. The only thing that Detroit 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:13.680 can basically do right now is kind of run the 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:15.640 football a little bit there with you know, the two 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.080 good running backs that they have in Swift and Williams. 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:20.080 So that's really the way that they want to play. 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:21.960 And if Cincinnati's going to stop them, then they're not 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:23.159 going to be able to do that. So they're going 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:24.760 to have to go to the air when you look 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:26.640 at Detroit having to go to the air. It is 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:30.560 Jared Goff throwing the ball to pretty much wide receivers 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:32.640 like three, four and five on their list right now, 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:34.359 because when you look down at the list, it's going 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:38.120 to be like Khalif Raymond, probably like Amen ros Saint Brown. 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:40.240 You know, those are the guys that are going to 0:05:40.279 --> 0:05:41.839 be in there. Tyrell Williams has been out with a 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:44.520 concussion for a couple of weeks. They lost a Quintes 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:48.200 Siphas last week. Even TJ. Hockinson, who is probably the 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:50.799 one guy you could really count on on that team, 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:54.039 mispracticed yesterday. His status is up in the air for 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.600 this weekend. You know, I'm looking at this here, and 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.159 then you look at the other side of the ball too. 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.640 Detroit has one of the worst pass coverage defense, is 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:03.880 one of the worst pass coverage grades in the entire league. 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:06.760 And then you have a healthy T Higgins. Now you 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.440 have arguably the rookie of the year out there, you know, 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:12.320 catching touchdowns every week, and that Tyler Boyd as well. 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:14.160 And it's like even cj Uzaman, who had a big 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:16.440 week two weeks ago. There are just so many weapons 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.120 here for Joe Burrow to play with against the defense 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:22.600 that has absolutely no chance to stop the pass. So Cincinnati, 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:24.720 I know they're on the road. I know they're laying 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:26.760 the hook. I know it's three and a half. I 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:28.400 think the reason it's three and a half is because 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.400 the books know if they left us at minus three, 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.440 this game would get absolutely hammered by everybody, So they 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:35.080 added the hook there to try to scare a few 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.039 people away. But I'm a little smarter than the book, 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:38.760 so I'm not gonna be scared by it. I'm gonna 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:39.520 lay the three and a half. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:42.279 Within I'm looking at the various lines that are available, 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.559 and there is a three, oddly enough, sitting one three 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:48.400 sitting out there at points. Bet it's just up it's 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.040 minus one thirty here if you're gonna lay the three. 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:53.360 But yeah, three and a half is there. I think 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.200 I agree with you. I don't have a strong feeling 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:57.120 about this, just because when I look at it, it 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.760 does feel like even with the hook, with it being 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.120 over three, the books want you to take the Bengals, 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:04.880 and the books expect you to take the Bengals. Like 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:07.240 I imagine the public, the number of tickets that are 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:09.720 going to come in. It's got to be heavily on 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:12.520 the Bengals, right, Even after that loss, nobody wants to 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.000 back the lines at this point and with a small spread, right, 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.200 So it feels like my only worry with it is 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.280 the fact that I feel like the books kind of 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:21.080 want you. Do you ever factor that in? By the way, 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:22.680 do you ever look at a line and say, this 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:24.760 almost feels like they're baiting me, they want me to 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:26.360 do this, or do you just throw that out the window? 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:28.400 I do, but I look at it the other way. 0:07:28.440 --> 0:07:30.920 As you know, if you see a line out there 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:34.120 that's minus two and a half, to me, that's almost 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:35.880 the books baiting me to take the minus two and 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:37.280 a half, being like, oh, I'm going to get the 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.240 three on it. When they bump it up to three 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:40.600 and a half, I kind of look at it the 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:42.720 other way. It's like they bumped this up to three 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.840 and a half to try to keep me from taking 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:46.520 this line because they knew that if it was two 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:49.120 and a half or three, people would be more likely 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:50.760 to take it, and then they would get something that is, 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:53.880 you know, completely one sided, which is obviously not what 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:55.360 the books want to do, right. 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:56.280 You know, I think. 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:59.160 People because Detroit had a couple of those games where 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:01.840 they lost by like, you know, less than a field goal. There, 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.360 I think people are giving Detroit a little too much 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:06.680 credit for being a good team. Like Detroit is not 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:08.640 a good team. They're not good on offense, they're not 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:11.080 good on defense, they're not really all that great on 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:13.240 special teams. Not that that is a major factor in 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.480 my numbers, but when I look at it, I just 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:16.120 think that. 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:18.640 They're being a little bit overvalued right now. And that's 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:19.240 what you really want to do. 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.280 You want to find the teams that books are overvaluing, 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:22.880 and you want to bet against them, and you want 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.680 to find the teams that they're undervaluing and kind of 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:25.200 bet on them. 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.560 I still think since he's being undervalued, and I think 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:28.840 Detroit's being overvalued. 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:30.520 So when you put those two things together here, I 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:31.760 love this bet on the Bengals. 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:33.960 Yeah, so, I mean your point is correct. Obviously they're 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.400 three and a half. That's sort of something that is saying, oh, 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.480 you might not you know, in a vacuum, you would say, oh, 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:39.960 you don't want to take the Bengals. It's over a 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:42.600 field goal. Like look at this. I think for me, though, 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:45.600 with the very very Joe Q Public out there betting, 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:47.880 I just feel like looks at sort of be like 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.679 the Lions suck their own five. I know they almost 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:52.400 won that game, but they should have lost. They think 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:56.000 the Bengals are young and exciting. If it's anything remotely 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:58.400 hanging around a field goal, I feel like Joe Q 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:00.600 Public is going to want to take it. It's interesting. 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:02.679 I don't that is the side that I would go 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:04.040 and if I had to go on another side, but 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:05.880 I'm going to stick in this game. Okay, this isn't 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:08.680 technically my second bet whatever, but I'm sticking in this 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.400 game for another one of my bats. Actually, it's gonna 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.200 be the under the forty seven and a half, and 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:15.160 a lot of it is based on the points that 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:19.240 you made, Benny, which is the Lion's offense is abysmal 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.679 right now, like really really terrible. And don't forget the 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.160 offensive line for them, at one point was a strength 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:28.600 of this team and it is decimated, especially with ragnow out. 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:31.959 That's a huge loss for them, right And you mentioned Hockinson. Yeah, 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:33.880 my guess is he's gonna play because he's been playing 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.160 through this new thing a lot. But without the offensive 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.280 line there to block or anything like that. It doesn't 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.560 do it. You mentioned Cefest Brocus collar bone, he's going 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.520 to be out. They don't have the pass catchers. They 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.760 do have the running backs. We're pretty strong, but you 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:48.680 mentioned it. That's kind of Cincinnati's strength here on defense 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.080 seventh in defensive DVOA against the run. So it's really 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:53.600 hard for me to see the Lions. I mean, you 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.160 got the coach, you know, Dan Campbell, talking about how 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:58.960 you know, Jared gobb is struggling with like too many 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:01.600 plays and stuff like that, like he he knows realistically, 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:03.280 they're not going to put a point. So for me, 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:07.560 it's all about whether or not Cincinnati completely explodes offensively 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:10.000 in this game. And they could. I mean, obviously they 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:13.120 have the three wide receivers back, Joe Mixon appears healthy 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.000 though I know he was limited early in the league. 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.600 But obviously they should win this game for sure. But 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:19.319 for me, the reason, part of the reason why I 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.880 like the under both teams are really slow. I mean, Benny, like, 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:26.959 the Lions are the sixth slowest neutral pass play pace 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.920 of play in neutral situations, the Bengals are the second slowest. 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:32.120 Like neither one of these teams, other than the fact 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:33.640 that there's going to be like a seventy yard pass 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.320 play to Jamar Chase and we just have to fake 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.080 that in Neither one of these teams wants to hurry up, 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:39.960 let's go, let's go, let's go, let's run this. They 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:41.720 want to milk the clock, they want to play it slow. 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.040 So I do see the Bengals winning this game. I 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.120 do think they win it by more than a field goal. 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:47.640 So I'm on your side there if I have to 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.200 go away. But I still I just don't see it 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.480 being like this high, you know, powered game or anything 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:55.280 like that. I think it's going to be a relatively 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.520 low scoring game. So at forty seven and a half, 0:10:57.720 --> 0:10:59.679 it's the only total on my list right now, it's 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.400 the only I like, but it's my favorite total of 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:02.480 the week. What do you think about that? 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:04.880 Yeah, well, I mean when you look at Detroit, they 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:08.920 went seventeen seventeen, fourteen, seventeen in their last four games here. 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:11.240 So basically what you're betting on right now is that 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.800 the Cincinnati Bengals aren't gonna score thirty five points. 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.320 So I think Cincinnati's gonna win this game too. But 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.120 thirty five is asking a lot for them. 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.920 If Detroit's defense could play well enough to keep since 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:22.520 the other five touchdowns, I think you got it. 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:23.560 I think you got a winner there. 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.120 And I think the only thing that, like, the one 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.200 thing that the Lions kind of do it from a 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.520 defensive standpoint is they do get pressure, Like they're able 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.880 to get pressure on the quarterback. And Burrow's taking some shots. 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.360 You're right, he's gonna be fine with that throat contusion 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.640 or whatever, but he's taken some shots the last couple 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:41.840 of weeks. So I think with them getting pressure that 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.000 is gonna at least throw them out of their rhythm 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.200 and probably affect them offensively. So it's something let's go 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.360 for both of us winning this one, the Bengals winning 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.079 you know, a nice tidy twenty to thirteen game. We'll 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.040 both go home winners. Go to your second bet. What 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:54.440 do you got? 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:56.920 Yeah, so the second one I'm looking at here. I'm 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:58.840 actually gonna bet we're gonna go to a total in 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:01.760 this one. I'm betting the over in the Kansas City 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.199 Washington game. And I know it's a big number. Is 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:04.880 it fifty five? 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:06.559 Right now? I mean, what are you looking at. 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.400 Let me take the consensus. It was fifty five and 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.040 a half last time I saw it. I'll pull it 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:15.960 up here, hold on, it is ooh, fifty there's it's 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:17.960 some books are at fifty five and a half, but 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.800 the consensus, the majority books fifty four and a half. 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:22.640 So even better for you, right you're going out. 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:23.600 There, I'll take it. 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.640 I mean, here, here's the numbers so that you can 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.319 you can see why I'm on this side. So far 0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:31.080 this year, Kansas City averaging thirty one points per game, 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.000 giving up thirty two points per game, Washington averaging twenty 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.280 four points per game, giving up thirty points per game. 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:38.400 So we're looking in. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:41.040 That fifty five sixty five rage right there. If we 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.360 just kind of, you know, go with those raw numbers 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:45.839 and add them together and then you know, the thing 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.040 that I don't think people understand is like everybody looks 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.240 at Washington and they think of last year with the 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:51.920 Washington Redskins, top. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.360 Five defense, like you know, all that stuff. The offense 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:55.040 is really bad. 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.319 But so far this year that's not really the way 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.679 it's been. Other than the first game, which again was 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.120 Ryan Fitzpatrick, not you know, Taylor Heineke, who's in there now. 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:05.680 Heinike's actually been putting up points with this team, So 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.240 you know, if this team is gonna score. And then 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.400 the other thing is the defense hasn't been as good 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:10.800 this year. 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:11.440 This year. 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:13.600 Again, I'm not saying they're like a bottom ten defense 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:15.599 or anything like that, but they're a middle of the 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.040 road defense. And you know what, the Kansas City Chiefs 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.400 are gonna pick apart a middle of the road defense, 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.800 a top five defense like they've played last week with 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:26.280 the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, and even Buffalo top defense in 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.320 the league, one of the top five defenses depending on 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.199 whatever ratings you're looking at. They still hung up twenty 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.920 points on Buffalo last week. They're gonna hang up thirty 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.280 here this week on Washington. And then the thing is, 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:38.560 I think Washington can hang it up on them because 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:41.600 right now, Kansas City is literally the worst defense in 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.480 the league. So the only way that Kansas City could 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.040 win games is getting into shootouts and basically Washington at 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.360 this point, I'm not saying this offense is elite. 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.640 I'm not saying it's great. There are pieces missing. 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.360 Logan Thomas being out is obviously a big deal to 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.120 this defense. Antonio Gibson's been a little banged up, not 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:01.360 completely himself, and you can run on Kansas City, so 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.040 that would be something that you want to hope that 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:05.520 he's going to be in there, or at least whoever 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.400 is in there at running back, whether it's j D 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.000 Mciszick or somebody else further down the you know, the 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:11.400 depth chart is going to be able to get some 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:12.000 yardage here. 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:14.439 I just think there's gonna be points on both sides 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:14.920 of this game. 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.640 And I have no problem playing overs with Kansas City 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:19.880 because this is the exact kind of team that I 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.800 want to play overs with. Their defense can't stop anybody, 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.160 so anybody can put up points on them, and their 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.480 offense literally doesn't need more than three plays to go 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:29.840 eighty yards down the field and put up a touchdown. 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.600 So I am hoping that this gets into one of 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.360 those close, back and forth kind of games where Kansas 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.640 City goes down I don't know, fourteen three or something, 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:43.120 storms back to make it seventeen to fourteen. Washington scores, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.840 then Kansas City scores, then Washington scores because Kansas City 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:47.480 can't stop them, and then the next thing you know, 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.240 we're up there in the sixties. And I mean just 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.200 look at the scores for Kansas City's games this year. 0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:53.480 Sixty two was the total in the first game, seventy 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.960 one in the second. The bad game they had was 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.080 fifty four in the third game, and then it was 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.200 sixty two and fifty eight in the last game. So 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.400 I mean, it's not like this is, you know, fifty 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.440 five very high number, but the way Kansas. 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.360 City's playing, they're almost playing like a college football team. 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:08.920 So if you're gonna get those kind of points in 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.440 their games, I'm still gonna be on the over here. 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:13.240 I know a lot of the public is on the 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:15.400 under So wait a little bit. If you can get 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:16.920 it at fifty four and a half, I like that. 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.480 If it drops even lower than that, that just means 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:20.320 you got a bit bigger. 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.200 Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent. Like I realized, 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:28.960 like it's like, oh, the Chiefs defense is so abysmal 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.520 that I can't even really put into words. And Washington's 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.440 their offense. It's not explosive or anything like that. But 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.240 at you know, as much as Antonio Gibson apparently has 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.360 the stress fractor in his shin, he looked fine last 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.600 week he scored two touchdowns. Terry McLaurin, I realize now 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:46.840 that he's pretty much the last guy standing because even 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:49.360 Curtis Samuel again came back for ten minutes and then 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.120