Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris eighty. It's time to talk about our week six
Speaker 1: best bets for the NFL season. Here's me to do
Speaker 1: that is Benny Richardi from FTN. Find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Benny R eleven. Benny, thanks for joining me. How
Speaker 1: you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm doing good man. It's an interesting week coming up here.
Speaker 2: Some some good games to bet on, some other ones
Speaker 2: that I don't really know what I want to.
Speaker 3: Do with, so I'm just kind of avoiding them.
Speaker 2: But again, the good thing is the book's got to
Speaker 2: make a line for all of them. We just got
Speaker 2: to find one or two that we like.
Speaker 1: I feel like this week is harder. I just I
Speaker 1: don't have a good enough sense for a lot of
Speaker 1: these games. Like I look at a lot of these
Speaker 1: games usually, you know, you we were just talking about
Speaker 1: how we do opening lines, right, you do you know
Speaker 1: a big video I do podcast, and how like I
Speaker 1: generally feel like there's usually I don't know, four or five,
Speaker 1: maybe six games I have kind of a strong reaction
Speaker 1: to it. This week, I didn't.
Speaker 3: This week.
Speaker 1: I was very much like ah, these are these are
Speaker 1: kind of sharp. You feel the same way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of those
Speaker 2: games that have the hook on the on the other side,
Speaker 2: Like if it was three, I'd be like, oh, I'm
Speaker 2: definitely taking this, But like that hooks a big deal, man,
Speaker 2: when you got the three and a half's there or
Speaker 2: even some of them are at four, like the you know,
Speaker 2: like one of them I think we're gonna talk.
Speaker 3: About in a little bit here with with Dallas.
Speaker 2: Like those those are key numbers, and those numbers like
Speaker 2: they change a lot there, you know. I mean I
Speaker 2: I think that numbers are in that area are even
Speaker 2: more important than people are making a big deal. Oh
Speaker 2: Carolina was favored to start the week and now they're
Speaker 2: the other minus one to plus one.
Speaker 3: That to me, that's the melting move.
Speaker 1: Nothing move.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like it doesn't matter to me when that happens.
Speaker 2: But you know, you go from from three to three
Speaker 2: and a half or three to four and a half
Speaker 2: like that one and a half one point right there,
Speaker 2: much bigger deal to me.
Speaker 3: And we got a lot of those this week.
Speaker 2: So absolutely, I'm hoping I'm not on the wrong side
Speaker 2: of a bunch of hooks on something that's basically what I'm.
Speaker 1: Saying on here. We'll find out soon enough, as you
Speaker 1: guys know, with this one, we talk about each of
Speaker 1: our three best bets for the weekend, can be spread,
Speaker 1: can be total, can be moneylined if we want, and
Speaker 1: then we're going to quickly run through the remaining games
Speaker 1: before we get into a couple of housekeeping things again.
Speaker 1: This podcast, as you guys surely know by now, is
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM, and I want to
Speaker 1: tell you about their latest offer. You can bet ten
Speaker 1: dollars and you win two hundred dollars in free bets
Speaker 1: if the team you bet on in an NFL game
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown. Okay, bet ten dollars either side wherever
Speaker 1: you want to go. The team you bet on scores
Speaker 1: a touchdown, two hundred dollars in free bets. That is
Speaker 1: available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington,
Speaker 1: d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. And the code is Juice
Speaker 1: one hundred. Again we have the Daily Juice podcast hosted
Speaker 1: by Matt Parolt. That's where that code comes from. Juice
Speaker 1: one hundred over at bet MGM's second seque. Barkley is
Speaker 1: not going to play this weekend, but we sell the
Speaker 1: sign Saquon Barkley jersey that we are giving away. You
Speaker 1: guys know how to enter by now I'll get it.
Speaker 1: Was the review for the show Apple Podcasts or cast
Speaker 1: box and then go to Betting Pros dot com slash
Speaker 1: review if you are subscribed to our YouTube channel YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros counts as three times the entries.
Speaker 1: All right, Benny, Before we get into it, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: run through how we did last week. Our guest Scott
Speaker 1: Bagman went one, one and one. He hit on the
Speaker 1: Pats and Texans over thirty nine and a half. He
Speaker 1: missed on the Vikings laying nine and a half to
Speaker 1: the Lions, and then he pushed on the Packers, laying
Speaker 1: three to the Bengals, which I'm sure his heart was
Speaker 1: in his throat throughout that day. I had another positive day,
Speaker 1: third week in a row. Here I hit on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: getting three and a half from the Panthers, and the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Falcons over forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: But the train on the Broncos under finally ended, and
Speaker 1: I missed on the under thirty nine and a half
Speaker 1: with the Broncos and the Steelers. But it's been a
Speaker 1: couple of good weeks here, seven and two over the
Speaker 1: last three, Benny, So if this goes downhill, I will
Speaker 1: be blaming you. But it's fine. We're gonna be using
Speaker 1: the lines. I'll check the lines of betting pros come
Speaker 1: but obviously it's all over the place with the various books,
Speaker 1: and I will point it out. Benny, you are the guest.
Speaker 1: You get to get us started. What's your favorite bet
Speaker 1: here of the weekend?
Speaker 2: So my favorite bet of the week is actually the
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals on the road against Detroit in one of
Speaker 2: those games where the hook is on the other side
Speaker 2: from what I was talking about here. So I'm actually
Speaker 2: willing to lay the three and a half here with Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: Cincinnati has a top nine rated offense a top seven
Speaker 2: rated defense. You know, when I originally looked at this line,
Speaker 2: I said, oh, this must be the line in case
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow doesn't play because they had to take him
Speaker 2: to the hospital after the last game, some kind of
Speaker 2: throat contrusion or something that happens. He did finish the game.
Speaker 2: He's been practicing all week. I just thought that the
Speaker 2: three and a half was just way, way too low
Speaker 2: of a number here.
Speaker 3: You know, you look at this Detroit team.
Speaker 2: Most people in their power rankings have Detroit and like
Speaker 2: the bottom four, the bottom five of the league. Now,
Speaker 2: there are four or five teams that are just absolutely
Speaker 2: horrible football teams that depending on which power ranking you use,
Speaker 2: on which site you're looking at, but it's the same
Speaker 2: five teams that are basically down there, with Detroit being
Speaker 2: one of them. Cincinnati right now is you know, you
Speaker 2: look at PFF, you look at some of the other
Speaker 2: rating systems out there, this is a top ten overall team.
Speaker 3: Good on both sides of the football here.
Speaker 2: One of the things that their defense is really good
Speaker 2: at is stopping to run. The only thing that Detroit
Speaker 2: can basically do right now is kind of run the
Speaker 2: football a little bit there with you know, the two
Speaker 2: good running backs that they have in Swift and Williams.
Speaker 2: So that's really the way that they want to play.
Speaker 2: And if Cincinnati's going to stop them, then they're not
Speaker 2: going to be able to do that. So they're going
Speaker 2: to have to go to the air when you look
Speaker 2: at Detroit having to go to the air. It is
Speaker 2: Jared Goff throwing the ball to pretty much wide receivers
Speaker 2: like three, four and five on their list right now,
Speaker 2: because when you look down at the list, it's going
Speaker 2: to be like Khalif Raymond, probably like Amen ros Saint Brown.
Speaker 2: You know, those are the guys that are going to
Speaker 2: be in there. Tyrell Williams has been out with a
Speaker 2: concussion for a couple of weeks. They lost a Quintes
Speaker 2: Siphas last week. Even TJ. Hockinson, who is probably the
Speaker 2: one guy you could really count on on that team,
Speaker 2: mispracticed yesterday. His status is up in the air for
Speaker 2: this weekend. You know, I'm looking at this here, and
Speaker 2: then you look at the other side of the ball too.
Speaker 2: Detroit has one of the worst pass coverage defense, is
Speaker 2: one of the worst pass coverage grades in the entire league.
Speaker 2: And then you have a healthy T Higgins. Now you
Speaker 2: have arguably the rookie of the year out there, you know,
Speaker 2: catching touchdowns every week, and that Tyler Boyd as well.
Speaker 2: And it's like even cj Uzaman, who had a big
Speaker 2: week two weeks ago. There are just so many weapons
Speaker 2: here for Joe Burrow to play with against the defense
Speaker 2: that has absolutely no chance to stop the pass. So Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: I know they're on the road. I know they're laying
Speaker 2: the hook. I know it's three and a half. I
Speaker 2: think the reason it's three and a half is because
Speaker 2: the books know if they left us at minus three,
Speaker 2: this game would get absolutely hammered by everybody, So they
Speaker 2: added the hook there to try to scare a few
Speaker 2: people away. But I'm a little smarter than the book,
Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna be scared by it. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: lay the three and a half.
Speaker 1: Within I'm looking at the various lines that are available,
Speaker 1: and there is a three, oddly enough, sitting one three
Speaker 1: sitting out there at points. Bet it's just up it's
Speaker 1: minus one thirty here if you're gonna lay the three.
Speaker 1: But yeah, three and a half is there. I think
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I don't have a strong feeling
Speaker 1: about this, just because when I look at it, it
Speaker 1: does feel like even with the hook, with it being
Speaker 1: over three, the books want you to take the Bengals,
Speaker 1: and the books expect you to take the Bengals. Like
Speaker 1: I imagine the public, the number of tickets that are
Speaker 1: going to come in. It's got to be heavily on
Speaker 1: the Bengals, right, Even after that loss, nobody wants to
Speaker 1: back the lines at this point and with a small spread, right,
Speaker 1: So it feels like my only worry with it is
Speaker 1: the fact that I feel like the books kind of
Speaker 1: want you. Do you ever factor that in? By the way,
Speaker 1: do you ever look at a line and say, this
Speaker 1: almost feels like they're baiting me, they want me to
Speaker 1: do this, or do you just throw that out the window?
Speaker 3: I do, but I look at it the other way.
Speaker 2: As you know, if you see a line out there
Speaker 2: that's minus two and a half, to me, that's almost
Speaker 2: the books baiting me to take the minus two and
Speaker 2: a half, being like, oh, I'm going to get the
Speaker 2: three on it. When they bump it up to three
Speaker 2: and a half, I kind of look at it the
Speaker 2: other way. It's like they bumped this up to three
Speaker 2: and a half to try to keep me from taking
Speaker 2: this line because they knew that if it was two
Speaker 2: and a half or three, people would be more likely
Speaker 2: to take it, and then they would get something that is,
Speaker 2: you know, completely one sided, which is obviously not what
Speaker 2: the books want to do, right.
Speaker 3: You know, I think.
Speaker 2: People because Detroit had a couple of those games where
Speaker 2: they lost by like, you know, less than a field goal. There,
Speaker 2: I think people are giving Detroit a little too much
Speaker 2: credit for being a good team. Like Detroit is not
Speaker 2: a good team. They're not good on offense, they're not
Speaker 2: good on defense, they're not really all that great on
Speaker 2: special teams. Not that that is a major factor in
Speaker 2: my numbers, but when I look at it, I just
Speaker 2: think that.
Speaker 3: They're being a little bit overvalued right now. And that's
Speaker 3: what you really want to do.
Speaker 2: You want to find the teams that books are overvaluing,
Speaker 2: and you want to bet against them, and you want
Speaker 2: to find the teams that they're undervaluing and kind of
Speaker 2: bet on them.
Speaker 3: I still think since he's being undervalued, and I think
Speaker 3: Detroit's being overvalued.
Speaker 2: So when you put those two things together here, I
Speaker 2: love this bet on the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, I mean your point is correct. Obviously they're
Speaker 1: three and a half. That's sort of something that is saying, oh,
Speaker 1: you might not you know, in a vacuum, you would say, oh,
Speaker 1: you don't want to take the Bengals. It's over a
Speaker 1: field goal. Like look at this. I think for me, though,
Speaker 1: with the very very Joe Q Public out there betting,
Speaker 1: I just feel like looks at sort of be like
Speaker 1: the Lions suck their own five. I know they almost
Speaker 1: won that game, but they should have lost. They think
Speaker 1: the Bengals are young and exciting. If it's anything remotely
Speaker 1: hanging around a field goal, I feel like Joe Q
Speaker 1: Public is going to want to take it. It's interesting.
Speaker 1: I don't that is the side that I would go
Speaker 1: and if I had to go on another side, but
Speaker 1: I'm going to stick in this game. Okay, this isn't
Speaker 1: technically my second bet whatever, but I'm sticking in this
Speaker 1: game for another one of my bats. Actually, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be the under the forty seven and a half, and
Speaker 1: a lot of it is based on the points that
Speaker 1: you made, Benny, which is the Lion's offense is abysmal
Speaker 1: right now, like really really terrible. And don't forget the
Speaker 1: offensive line for them, at one point was a strength
Speaker 1: of this team and it is decimated, especially with ragnow out.
Speaker 1: That's a huge loss for them, right And you mentioned Hockinson. Yeah,
Speaker 1: my guess is he's gonna play because he's been playing
Speaker 1: through this new thing a lot. But without the offensive
Speaker 1: line there to block or anything like that. It doesn't
Speaker 1: do it. You mentioned Cefest Brocus collar bone, he's going
Speaker 1: to be out. They don't have the pass catchers. They
Speaker 1: do have the running backs. We're pretty strong, but you
Speaker 1: mentioned it. That's kind of Cincinnati's strength here on defense
Speaker 1: seventh in defensive DVOA against the run. So it's really
Speaker 1: hard for me to see the Lions. I mean, you
Speaker 1: got the coach, you know, Dan Campbell, talking about how
Speaker 1: you know, Jared gobb is struggling with like too many
Speaker 1: plays and stuff like that, like he he knows realistically,
Speaker 1: they're not going to put a point. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's all about whether or not Cincinnati completely explodes offensively
Speaker 1: in this game. And they could. I mean, obviously they
Speaker 1: have the three wide receivers back, Joe Mixon appears healthy
Speaker 1: though I know he was limited early in the league.
Speaker 1: But obviously they should win this game for sure. But
Speaker 1: for me, the reason, part of the reason why I
Speaker 1: like the under both teams are really slow. I mean, Benny, like,
Speaker 1: the Lions are the sixth slowest neutral pass play pace
Speaker 1: of play in neutral situations, the Bengals are the second slowest.
Speaker 1: Like neither one of these teams, other than the fact
Speaker 1: that there's going to be like a seventy yard pass
Speaker 1: play to Jamar Chase and we just have to fake
Speaker 1: that in Neither one of these teams wants to hurry up,
Speaker 1: let's go, let's go, let's go, let's run this. They
Speaker 1: want to milk the clock, they want to play it slow.
Speaker 1: So I do see the Bengals winning this game. I
Speaker 1: do think they win it by more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: So I'm on your side there if I have to
Speaker 1: go away. But I still I just don't see it
Speaker 1: being like this high, you know, powered game or anything
Speaker 1: like that. I think it's going to be a relatively
Speaker 1: low scoring game. So at forty seven and a half,
Speaker 1: it's the only total on my list right now, it's
Speaker 1: the only I like, but it's my favorite total of
Speaker 1: the week. What do you think about that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean when you look at Detroit, they
Speaker 2: went seventeen seventeen, fourteen, seventeen in their last four games here.
Speaker 2: So basically what you're betting on right now is that
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals aren't gonna score thirty five points.
Speaker 3: So I think Cincinnati's gonna win this game too. But
Speaker 3: thirty five is asking a lot for them.
Speaker 2: If Detroit's defense could play well enough to keep since
Speaker 2: the other five touchdowns, I think you got it.
Speaker 3: I think you got a winner there.
Speaker 1: And I think the only thing that, like, the one
Speaker 1: thing that the Lions kind of do it from a
Speaker 1: defensive standpoint is they do get pressure, Like they're able
Speaker 1: to get pressure on the quarterback. And Burrow's taking some shots.
Speaker 1: You're right, he's gonna be fine with that throat contusion
Speaker 1: or whatever, but he's taken some shots the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. So I think with them getting pressure that
Speaker 1: is gonna at least throw them out of their rhythm
Speaker 1: and probably affect them offensively. So it's something let's go
Speaker 1: for both of us winning this one, the Bengals winning
Speaker 1: you know, a nice tidy twenty to thirteen game. We'll
Speaker 1: both go home winners. Go to your second bet. What
Speaker 1: do you got?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the second one I'm looking at here. I'm
Speaker 2: actually gonna bet we're gonna go to a total in
Speaker 2: this one. I'm betting the over in the Kansas City
Speaker 2: Washington game. And I know it's a big number. Is
Speaker 2: it fifty five?
Speaker 3: Right now? I mean, what are you looking at.
Speaker 1: Let me take the consensus. It was fifty five and
Speaker 1: a half last time I saw it. I'll pull it
Speaker 1: up here, hold on, it is ooh, fifty there's it's
Speaker 1: some books are at fifty five and a half, but
Speaker 1: the consensus, the majority books fifty four and a half.
Speaker 1: So even better for you, right you're going out.
Speaker 3: There, I'll take it.
Speaker 2: I mean, here, here's the numbers so that you can
Speaker 2: you can see why I'm on this side. So far
Speaker 2: this year, Kansas City averaging thirty one points per game,
Speaker 2: giving up thirty two points per game, Washington averaging twenty
Speaker 2: four points per game, giving up thirty points per game.
Speaker 3: So we're looking in.
Speaker 2: That fifty five sixty five rage right there. If we
Speaker 2: just kind of, you know, go with those raw numbers
Speaker 2: and add them together and then you know, the thing
Speaker 2: that I don't think people understand is like everybody looks
Speaker 2: at Washington and they think of last year with the
Speaker 2: Washington Redskins, top.
Speaker 3: Five defense, like you know, all that stuff. The offense
Speaker 3: is really bad.
Speaker 2: But so far this year that's not really the way
Speaker 2: it's been. Other than the first game, which again was
Speaker 2: Ryan Fitzpatrick, not you know, Taylor Heineke, who's in there now.
Speaker 2: Heinike's actually been putting up points with this team, So
Speaker 2: you know, if this team is gonna score. And then
Speaker 2: the other thing is the defense hasn't been as good
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 3: This year.
Speaker 2: Again, I'm not saying they're like a bottom ten defense
Speaker 2: or anything like that, but they're a middle of the
Speaker 2: road defense. And you know what, the Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 2: are gonna pick apart a middle of the road defense,
Speaker 2: a top five defense like they've played last week with
Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, and even Buffalo top defense in
Speaker 2: the league, one of the top five defenses depending on
Speaker 2: whatever ratings you're looking at. They still hung up twenty
Speaker 2: points on Buffalo last week. They're gonna hang up thirty
Speaker 2: here this week on Washington. And then the thing is,
Speaker 2: I think Washington can hang it up on them because
Speaker 2: right now, Kansas City is literally the worst defense in
Speaker 2: the league. So the only way that Kansas City could
Speaker 2: win games is getting into shootouts and basically Washington at
Speaker 2: this point, I'm not saying this offense is elite.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's great. There are pieces missing.
Speaker 2: Logan Thomas being out is obviously a big deal to
Speaker 2: this defense. Antonio Gibson's been a little banged up, not
Speaker 2: completely himself, and you can run on Kansas City, so
Speaker 2: that would be something that you want to hope that
Speaker 2: he's going to be in there, or at least whoever
Speaker 2: is in there at running back, whether it's j D
Speaker 2: Mciszick or somebody else further down the you know, the
Speaker 2: depth chart is going to be able to get some
Speaker 2: yardage here.
Speaker 3: I just think there's gonna be points on both sides
Speaker 3: of this game.
Speaker 2: And I have no problem playing overs with Kansas City
Speaker 2: because this is the exact kind of team that I
Speaker 2: want to play overs with. Their defense can't stop anybody,
Speaker 2: so anybody can put up points on them, and their
Speaker 2: offense literally doesn't need more than three plays to go
Speaker 2: eighty yards down the field and put up a touchdown.
Speaker 2: So I am hoping that this gets into one of
Speaker 2: those close, back and forth kind of games where Kansas
Speaker 2: City goes down I don't know, fourteen three or something,
Speaker 2: storms back to make it seventeen to fourteen. Washington scores,
Speaker 2: then Kansas City scores, then Washington scores because Kansas City
Speaker 2: can't stop them, and then the next thing you know,
Speaker 2: we're up there in the sixties. And I mean just
Speaker 2: look at the scores for Kansas City's games this year.
Speaker 2: Sixty two was the total in the first game, seventy
Speaker 2: one in the second. The bad game they had was
Speaker 2: fifty four in the third game, and then it was
Speaker 2: sixty two and fifty eight in the last game. So
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not like this is, you know, fifty
Speaker 2: five very high number, but the way Kansas.
Speaker 3: City's playing, they're almost playing like a college football team.
Speaker 2: So if you're gonna get those kind of points in
Speaker 2: their games, I'm still gonna be on the over here.
Speaker 2: I know a lot of the public is on the
Speaker 2: under So wait a little bit. If you can get
Speaker 2: it at fifty four and a half, I like that.
Speaker 2: If it drops even lower than that, that just means
Speaker 2: you got a bit bigger.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent. Like I realized,
Speaker 1: like it's like, oh, the Chiefs defense is so abysmal
Speaker 1: that I can't even really put into words. And Washington's
Speaker 1: their offense. It's not explosive or anything like that. But
Speaker 1: at you know, as much as Antonio Gibson apparently has
Speaker 1: the stress fractor in his shin, he looked fine last
Speaker 1: week he scored two touchdowns. Terry McLaurin, I realize now
Speaker 1: that he's pretty much the last guy standing because even
Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel again came back for ten minutes and then
Speaker 1: is out. That's fine, doesn't matter. They cannot stop wide
Speaker 1: receivers no matter what you do. Heineke's played better than expected.
Speaker 1: I think Jad McKissick is probably gonna have a decent
Speaker 1: game in here. So I agree with you, and the
Speaker 1: Chiefs have to win, and the only way the Chiefs
Speaker 1: can win their two and three is to outscore you.
Speaker 1: So it is going to be monstrous amount of points. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it said fifty four and a half to me. I'm
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. I have only access to DraftKings. It's
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half at DraftKings, which is great.
Speaker 1: I totally love it. Again, and you mentioned it Washington's
Speaker 1: defense man, like, where are we where all of the like?
Speaker 1: I expected them to be a complete strength coming into
Speaker 1: this year, complete strength and their defense right now that
Speaker 1: you can pick on. So I don't know where this
Speaker 1: happened now. The one thing is Tyreek Kel has misspracticed.
Speaker 1: He misspracticed again today, so I want to make sure
Speaker 1: he plays. Of course, by assuming he does. Even if
Speaker 1: he doesn't, they'll i mean, pal Hartman will probably just
Speaker 1: step right in.
Speaker 3: Right Iron Pringle get a touchdown there.
Speaker 2: You know, one of the things about Washington's defense this year,
Speaker 2: they do still have a good pass rush. They have
Speaker 2: good I shouldn't even say they have a good pass
Speaker 2: they have good pass rushers, right, but the secondary is
Speaker 2: so bad that I mean, like, listen, these guys still
Speaker 2: need about three seconds to get to the quarterback. If
Speaker 2: they can't even guard, if they can't even stop anybody
Speaker 2: or cover anybody for three seconds, it's not going to
Speaker 2: make a difference.
Speaker 3: And that's really what the you know, what the numbers
Speaker 3: have shown.
Speaker 2: Right now is that their secondary is just so bad
Speaker 2: that they can't even stop anybody here.
Speaker 3: So they're not even giving that line a chance. With
Speaker 3: all those pass rushers they have to kind of get home.
Speaker 3: And that's the thing.
Speaker 2: You hope that your a good defensive line can help
Speaker 2: out your corners, but the corner's got to do a
Speaker 2: little bit of work too.
Speaker 3: If it's like you know, teams.
Speaker 2: Are just throwing all over you, I mean, really, there's
Speaker 2: nothing you can do about it. And again that's the
Speaker 2: big difference between not Washington defense this year and last year.
Speaker 2: Last year you weren't lighting them up through the air
Speaker 2: and those guys were getting home. This year, it feels
Speaker 2: like there's always receivers open, so quarterbacks don't have to
Speaker 2: hold on to it too long. They can get rid
Speaker 2: of it. If you're not getting home, they're gonna get
Speaker 2: picked apart. And that's what's been happening.
Speaker 1: Yep, I'm in agreeing with you. I like the over here.
Speaker 1: Don't care that basically taking a Chiefs over sounds so
Speaker 1: like Chalky or whatever. I'll take it out they get
Speaker 1: they can't stop anybody. I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: a shootout again in a game that they absolutely have
Speaker 1: to win, and they win by putting up points. So
Speaker 1: I agree with you there. I'm really interested, Benny, to
Speaker 1: hear your opinion on my next pick, okay, because you
Speaker 1: may hate it. I like it obviously because I'm picking it,
Speaker 1: but you may hit it, so let me get through it.
Speaker 1: Then after that, I want to hear this is the
Speaker 1: Browns laying three to the Cardinals. No, this was two
Speaker 1: and a half when it opens, so it's at three. That'snnoing,
Speaker 1: there's actually a three and a half out there as
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at Fox Bet, but at three
Speaker 1: I'm going to take it. Kind of a combination here
Speaker 1: of me buying the Browns and selling the Cardinals. The
Speaker 1: Browns are just a really, really impressive football team. Their
Speaker 1: run game is awesome. As we know, Baker Mayfield had
Speaker 1: that one terrible game against the Vikings, but overall he's
Speaker 1: played pretty well. Defense is very good, maybe not quote elite,
Speaker 1: but they are very very good. They're not that far
Speaker 1: away from being five to zero, including that game against
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They lost against the Chargers in that heartbreaking fashion.
Speaker 1: And conversely, I'm just selling the Cardinals a little bit.
Speaker 1: I mean, they were outplayed by the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: last week in like many notable categories. They could have
Speaker 1: lost that one. They should have lost that game to
Speaker 1: the Vikings that were behind against the Jaguars. I know
Speaker 1: it was a little fluky, but still they are due
Speaker 1: for a letdown game, and this game in particular, feel
Speaker 1: like it favors the Browns. Starting on Saturday in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be horribly windy for like three straight days.
Speaker 1: It's supposed to be twenty to twenty five mile an
Speaker 1: hour wins. What does that favor the run game, which
Speaker 1: is all Cleveland wants to do, so I think that's
Speaker 1: gonna be something good. The Cardinals have allowed five point
Speaker 1: four yards per carry on the year. Cardinals have a
Speaker 1: lot of injury concerns. They lost Max William obviously the
Speaker 1: tight end. Now they have a million pass catchers, but
Speaker 1: still that's something. Chandler Jones is likely out. He is
Speaker 1: on the COVID nineteen list. And they lost their center
Speaker 1: Rodney Hudson with the rib injuries. So they've got some
Speaker 1: injuries that they're dealing with. Everything here screams the regression
Speaker 1: to the mean for the Cardinals to me. The Browns
Speaker 1: bouncing back from that tough loss again two and a
Speaker 1: half earlier in the week. I liked it. I didn't
Speaker 1: bet it. I should have. It's still at three right now.
Speaker 1: I see one three and a half out there, so
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lock it in before it gets there. I
Speaker 1: will take the Browns at home Lang three. Benny, your
Speaker 1: thoughts please.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean you didn't even mention the fact that
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's a little banged up as well.
Speaker 1: That's true?
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely right, Yes, it's a throwing shoulder, which is
Speaker 2: obviously gonna be a big deal for them. And I
Speaker 2: mean he's been amazing this year, you know, no knock
Speaker 2: on him whatsoever. He's been absolutely great for them so
Speaker 2: far this season. But he wasn't that great last game.
Speaker 2: And that's what you started seeing it there. You know,
Speaker 2: this team had been putting up a lot more points
Speaker 2: than they did in that last game.
Speaker 3: And again, decent defense.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say great defense, but a decent defense
Speaker 2: they played last week and all that. So you would
Speaker 2: expect a little bit less than you know, the stellar
Speaker 2: performances you put.
Speaker 3: Up against some of the weaker teams in the league.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean there are there are quite a
Speaker 2: few red flags here for the five and oh Arizona Cardinals,
Speaker 2: which again I don't think many people thought the Cardinals,
Speaker 2: including the Cardinals, who haven't done that in like thirty years,
Speaker 2: started off a season five and oh, I think I
Speaker 2: don't even know if they did it in like the
Speaker 2: Kurt Order days when they were in there, you know,
Speaker 2: at least in our lifetime when they were in their
Speaker 2: kind of heyday right here.
Speaker 3: But you know, yeah, I don't mind it at all.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know that Cleveland is gonna basically play
Speaker 2: hard nos football. They're gonna play good defense, They're gonna
Speaker 2: run the football down your throat as often as they can,
Speaker 2: and when they throw, it's gonna be play action off
Speaker 2: of those you know, off of those runs. So windy
Speaker 2: day doesn't affect them anywhere near as much as it
Speaker 2: effects a team like Arizona that would need to kind
Speaker 2: of spread it out. So you got the weather on
Speaker 2: your side, you got the injuries on your side, you
Speaker 2: got Arizona having to travel to Cleveland for this game.
Speaker 2: You got Cleveland being a little upset at, you know,
Speaker 2: losing that game last week forty seven to forty two
Speaker 2: in a game that they played very well against arguably
Speaker 2: an even better defense than they're going to be facing here,
Speaker 2: and they still hung up forty two points. So yep,
Speaker 2: I mean, this Cleveland team is another one kind of
Speaker 2: like the Bengals, where the offense is pretty good, the
Speaker 2: defense is very good, and people were still under rating them.
Speaker 2: Probably a better team than most people think when you
Speaker 2: look at the Cleveland Browns here.
Speaker 3: So I don't hate it.
Speaker 1: I like it extremely well coached. I really like what
Speaker 1: Stefanski's then obviously coach of the year last year, and yes,
Speaker 1: totally spaced for whatever reason, even though I had factored
Speaker 1: it in the Murray injury, which again he's gonna play fine,
Speaker 1: But I do think that that did you know, impact
Speaker 1: him last week against the fourty niners. He's a slight guy.
Speaker 1: We saw him injured obviously last year. That really affects
Speaker 1: his performance. So all the factors taken together, that might
Speaker 1: be why the spread has moved up to three. I
Speaker 1: like it, but I am locking it in now before
Speaker 1: it moves. God passed again, Fox Bes already at three
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, last pick, Benny, what do
Speaker 1: you got? Yeah?
Speaker 2: So I was hoping to get a little bit of
Speaker 2: a better number on this game. I'm not gonna lie
Speaker 2: to you, but I do think this is another situation
Speaker 2: where it's one team that the books are still overvaluing
Speaker 2: because of name brand recognition with the New England Patriots,
Speaker 2: and one team that the books are undervaluing with the
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys being the only team that
Speaker 2: is five and zero against the spread so far this year. Now,
Speaker 2: I will say this based on the way my numbers
Speaker 2: look and based on what I've seen the last couple
Speaker 2: of weeks from the books, I do think the books
Speaker 2: did actually make an adjustment to Dallas this week, So
Speaker 2: I was expecting to get Dallas closer to like one
Speaker 2: and a half two points. Right now I think it's
Speaker 2: three and a half some places. I've even seen it
Speaker 2: as four, you know, so it is kind of creeping
Speaker 2: up there. But that doesn't really matter to me, to
Speaker 2: be honest with you. The Patriots defense is not the
Speaker 2: Patriots defense that was the one two or three years
Speaker 2: ago that every but he was scared of. That was
Speaker 2: like the super defense. And people keep pointing to oh,
Speaker 2: look they shut down the Jets.
Speaker 3: I am a Jets fan. That is not hard to do. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it is not hard to do.
Speaker 2: Like, if your best argument you could make to me it's, oh,
Speaker 2: well look what they did to the Jets, I'm gonna
Speaker 2: be like, yeah, so, like you know, my kids pop
Speaker 2: order team can shut down the Jets.
Speaker 3: I'm not worried about that whatsoever.
Speaker 2: You know, this defense, if you look at them right now,
Speaker 2: the Patriots are like middle of the pack, honestly, even
Speaker 2: in the lower half of the league, and a lot
Speaker 2: of categories that you look at overall and you look
Speaker 2: at Dallas's offense right now. You know, I know Pro
Speaker 2: Football Focus has them right that's the number one overall offense.
Speaker 3: I know over at FTN, I think we have them
Speaker 3: as number two or number three.
Speaker 2: Every single projection system that you look at right now
Speaker 2: has this Dallas offense.
Speaker 3: As being near elite.
Speaker 2: And then just look at what they've done in the
Speaker 2: last couple of games, forty one points, thirty six points,
Speaker 2: forty four points in the last three games. They're putting
Speaker 2: up thirty four points on the season. Now, do I
Speaker 2: think they get anywhere near thirty four against the Patriots? No,
Speaker 2: the Patriots are gonna have a good game plan. The
Speaker 2: Patriots defense, I'm not saying they suck. I'm just saying
Speaker 2: they're not the.
Speaker 3: Elite level defense that people used to look at them.
Speaker 2: Ass They traded away Steven Gilmour, who is a major
Speaker 2: piece of that team, and people don't realize when you
Speaker 2: have a guy who could be a one on one
Speaker 2: island shutdown corner, it allows your defense, especially a smart
Speaker 2: guy like Belichick, to do a lot of other things
Speaker 2: because you could just stick him out there and say,
Speaker 2: all right, your job this game is to take away
Speaker 2: Amari Cooper, and you know that that's going to happen,
Speaker 2: and then you're playing ten on ten with everybody else
Speaker 2: trying to figure out how to stop teams. When you
Speaker 2: lose that guy, that's a big deal. Now you have
Speaker 2: to make up for that fact because now you can't
Speaker 2: just say we're taking away that side of the field
Speaker 2: and you know, playing ten on ten on the other side.
Speaker 2: Now they actually have to go out there and you know,
Speaker 2: be an eleven man unit that actually goes and shuts
Speaker 2: teams down, and so far this year they haven't been
Speaker 2: able to do it. And then the other reason why
Speaker 2: I like it, I think Dallas's defense is a little
Speaker 2: better than people give them credit for, and I think
Speaker 2: the Patriots offense is even worse. Patriots right now basically
Speaker 2: only averaging nineteen points on that side of the ball.
Speaker 2: So if Dallas can get to like twenty four, they
Speaker 2: this number. I don't think they get to the thirty
Speaker 2: four they've been averaging, but I think think it gets
Speaker 2: twenty four. And if you can score twenty points against
Speaker 2: the Patriots, you're gonna win because this team just can't score.
Speaker 1: So I'm not going against you, but I'm not jumping
Speaker 1: on the train. I don't know what it is, Benny,
Speaker 1: So this is like not this is not great now.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw it out there. It's not great now
Speaker 1: for me. I don't know what it is, and it
Speaker 1: might just be my history. Of course, we're both Jets fans.
Speaker 1: I live in New England, of understanding this spot for
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick. Now, obviously you want to talk about the defense.
Speaker 1: I mean, Davis Mills just totally lit you up right,
Speaker 1: like that's not an offense that you're necessarily crad of.
Speaker 1: Dallas has been home for three games, right, three straight games.
Speaker 1: Now you're coming on the road. That's a spot generally historically,
Speaker 1: doesn't you know, bode well for teams, at least as
Speaker 1: against the spread. For sure. Mac Jones is not a
Speaker 1: great quarterback or anything like that. He's been okay. He
Speaker 1: really struggles with pressure. That's the one thing Dallas doesn't
Speaker 1: really get. They don't get a tone of pressure on
Speaker 1: the quarterback. So I think I think their offense, the
Speaker 1: Patriots can have some success here in this game. The
Speaker 1: big question is whether or not their defense can shut
Speaker 1: down what is basically an elite offense with Dallas and
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they can. I don't think they
Speaker 1: could sew him down. I mean, even you admit you
Speaker 1: don't expect this to be the you know, thirty eight
Speaker 1: points or anything from the cap rights, like, you don't
Speaker 1: expect this to be crazy at all. I just don't
Speaker 1: have it. Again, I kind of felt like this different obviously,
Speaker 1: and there were weather against the Bucks, but it strikes
Speaker 1: me a little bit against the Bucks where I was like,
Speaker 1: I don't see how you're gonna put up any points.
Speaker 1: I don't see how your defense is going to possibly
Speaker 1: hold them in check. There was no way. I felt
Speaker 1: good about the Patriots in that game, and they came
Speaker 1: out and they played extremely, extremely well. It strikes me
Speaker 1: as it's going to be one of those games and
Speaker 1: it's going to be a close game. But again, this
Speaker 1: is not great analysis bending because I don't I just
Speaker 1: don't have it like here. It's just something that makes
Speaker 1: me uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: I've actually had this same discussion already once today with
Speaker 2: my producer when we were talking about it on the
Speaker 2: show earlier yeap, and basically what I said to him
Speaker 2: is the Tampa Bay game literally required an act of God.
Speaker 2: The weather was horrible in that game. It required an
Speaker 2: act of God to slow them down. But on the
Speaker 2: other side of it, you were right. They still only
Speaker 2: scored seventeen points. This is a seventeen to twenty four
Speaker 2: point a game offense. That's the best you're going to
Speaker 2: get out of this new England team.
Speaker 3: There's no explosive wide receivers. You know.
Speaker 2: Again, they lost Damien Harris, not that he was I
Speaker 2: don't think that that's a big deal. I think Rimandre
Speaker 2: Stevenson can give you basically approximate what you got out
Speaker 2: of out of Damian Harris. I think the bigger deal
Speaker 2: was them losing James White a couple weeks ago because
Speaker 2: Bolden being in there now and taking that role.
Speaker 3: And I like Bolden.
Speaker 2: I think he's a solid guy that could be on
Speaker 2: the roster, but he's not the same upside that James
Speaker 2: White was, so that only hurts their offense even more
Speaker 2: right there. Like I said, my biggest problem here is
Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots can put up more than
Speaker 2: twenty and I don't think the Patriots defense, which is
Speaker 2: not as elite as they used to be, can keep
Speaker 2: this elite because Dallas's offense is elite can keep this
Speaker 2: elite Dallas offense under twenty. So I'm hoping I get
Speaker 2: a twenty four, seventeen, even twenty four to twenty.
Speaker 3: If you can get it out the three and a half, right,
Speaker 3: it would work for me too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a three and a half everywhere pretty much again,
Speaker 1: except for me. It's at three at DraftKings. Maybe a
Speaker 1: little bit better. It's the little Patriots love there, I guess.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think really the issue for me with
Speaker 1: the Cowboys is not their offense whatsoever. It is I
Speaker 1: don't have as much faith in their defense. I mean,
Speaker 1: Treyvon Diggs is great. Of course, they don't get a
Speaker 1: ton of pressure. They've been built so much on this
Speaker 1: insane turnover rate that they have. But again, this is
Speaker 1: not the offense that can exploit that with the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: right because they're just not explosive. So I feel you.
Speaker 1: I really don't hate it. It's something though I can't
Speaker 1: do it personally because again, I'm just scared. I'm a
Speaker 1: scared man, and I don't mind that. I don't bet
Speaker 1: games i'm afraid of, but I will bet a disgusting
Speaker 1: game right now that we alluded to earlier it's a
Speaker 1: line that has crossed zero, but doesn't really matter to me.
Speaker 1: It's whatever side you want to be on, is the
Speaker 1: side you're on. I'm going to take the Vikings laying
Speaker 1: a point in a half right now to the Panthers. Again,
Speaker 1: you mentioned it. I think it opened at the Panthers
Speaker 1: laying a point or maybe laying a point to half
Speaker 1: at some point. It's not cross but again, you and
Speaker 1: I talked about it. That is a far less significant
Speaker 1: move than going from two and a half to three
Speaker 1: and a half or three to three and a half,
Speaker 1: anything like that. I have a bit of an irrational
Speaker 1: love for the Vikings and they have done nothing to
Speaker 1: justify it whatsoever. I've only actually taken them on the
Speaker 1: show once, it was against the Cardinals, and they did cover,
Speaker 1: even though they wound up losing that game. This is
Speaker 1: much more, though, of a fade of the Panthers. Things
Speaker 1: look a lot different for the Panthers right now when
Speaker 1: they're not facing the Jets or the Texans. And Benny,
Speaker 1: you are a Jets fan. I am a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: As we just said, we have watched mister Sam Darnold,
Speaker 1: and I don't I'm glad Sam Darnold is out of
Speaker 1: the Adam Gase threshold right now and able to have
Speaker 1: some modicum of success. But one thing that I don't
Speaker 1: really think was a product of Adam Gase was how
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold looked under pressure. I think that he is
Speaker 1: not a great quarterback under pressure. We have seen it
Speaker 1: in his career. We have seen it now with the Panthers,
Speaker 1: and we certainly saw it last week against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: They pressured him forty three percent of the time. And
Speaker 1: the stats from Sunday against the Eagles when he got
Speaker 1: rid of the ball under two and a half seconds,
Speaker 1: he was eleven for eleven for seventy nine yards and
Speaker 1: a touchdown. When he had it held on to the
Speaker 1: ball for longer than two and a half seconds five
Speaker 1: to seventeen with two interceptions. So Donald generally holds the
Speaker 1: ball too long. That's kind of what he does two
Speaker 1: point eight seconds on average. And again, the games that
Speaker 1: he has won is against the Jets, against the Saints
Speaker 1: that you know, we don't really know what the Saints
Speaker 1: are yet, and against the text and now the Vikings
Speaker 1: do have holes on their defense, but they get pressure
Speaker 1: second in the NFL in pressure rate, Zimmer is a
Speaker 1: good defensive coach. They might have CMC back here. I
Speaker 1: guess they're supposed to. But again, yesterday Matt rules that
Speaker 1: he was fifty to fifty. Who knows that will help Darnald,
Speaker 1: But still I think we are basically starting to, you know,
Speaker 1: look like what he's going to look like against a
Speaker 1: legitimate defense. The Vikings have a good offense, they just
Speaker 1: don't score a ton or anything like that. And Cousins
Speaker 1: the Carolina gets a lot of pressure too, but Cousins
Speaker 1: is much better under pressure. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a close game. But I think the Vikings figure this
Speaker 1: one out. I think the Panthers are having the balloon
Speaker 1: burst a little bit with them, So I'm going to
Speaker 1: take the Vikings laying a point a half to the Panthers.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: One of the things I like to do every week
Speaker 2: is look at teams that are underperforming and or overperforming
Speaker 2: what they should be. And the Vikings are one of
Speaker 2: those teams that you look at their you know, you
Speaker 2: look at their grades by position, you look at the
Speaker 2: guys on that offense, you look at even the defense,
Speaker 2: which is supposed to be much improved from last year,
Speaker 2: although it hasn't really looked much improved yet this year.
Speaker 2: But that was the consensus coming into the season that
Speaker 2: they were going to be much better here. So they
Speaker 2: have played just nowhere near up to expectations this far. Now, again,
Speaker 2: if you're somebody who believes in variants, maybe they just
Speaker 2: had a couple of those down games, played a couple
Speaker 2: better opponents the first couple of weeks, a couple of
Speaker 2: the teams they played, our teams that are showing up
Speaker 2: better than a lot of people thought they would. So
Speaker 2: to start out two and three not the worst thing
Speaker 2: in the world. And then you look in the other
Speaker 2: side with Carolina, and you mentioned it. You know, Carolina
Speaker 2: is three and on the season, but who have they
Speaker 2: really beat? You know, that Saints game made everybody excited
Speaker 2: in the second week because the Saints went.
Speaker 3: Out in Week one and beat Green Bay.
Speaker 2: But if Green Bay and New Orleans played again tomorrow,
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody in the world would think that
Speaker 2: New Orleans should be favored in that game. Right now,
Speaker 2: they just happened to run into a buzzsaw. Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 2: had to touch the football in like four months. He
Speaker 2: was still playing jeopardy and figuring out the answers and
Speaker 2: all that stuff. So, I mean, I think people overrated
Speaker 2: the Saints, which made them overrate Carolina for beating up
Speaker 2: on the Saints. You know, I mean, I agree with
Speaker 2: everything that you're saying here. Listen, the market moved for
Speaker 2: a reason, right The market opened that way. The money
Speaker 2: came in heavy, and that's why it moved from Carolina
Speaker 2: being favored to Carolina being the underdog.
Speaker 3: You know, whether or not it moved enough, it doesn't
Speaker 3: really matter. When you're talking.
Speaker 2: About one point yere one and a half points there,
Speaker 2: anything under a field goal.
Speaker 3: You still just picked the team that you like. On
Speaker 3: either side there.
Speaker 2: I would have liked you have taken Minnesota if you
Speaker 2: really liked them on Sunday Monday when it was still
Speaker 2: like plus one ten or you know, something like that.
Speaker 3: But even now, I have no problem laying a one
Speaker 3: and a half on that side.
Speaker 2: I just think even though they haven't showed it yet,
Speaker 2: I just think they're the better football team overall.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and their defense to right, coming into the year,
Speaker 1: people were kind of excited about them that they had
Speaker 1: a lot of new faces, but the secondary hasn't played
Speaker 1: as well as kind of we expected. Them to play necessarily.
Speaker 1: But I do think they are a better team than
Speaker 1: what they have showed right now, and their record could
Speaker 1: be better. Obviously, they just you know, they almost won
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals. They probably should have won that game.
Speaker 1: So it is something where I think they're a little
Speaker 1: bit of a better team. And again it's largely a
Speaker 1: fade at the Panthers at this point. Who again we
Speaker 1: as you mentioned it, their strength of the you know,
Speaker 1: opponents who they have beaten is not impressive. All right,
Speaker 1: So let's recap very quickly. You were taking the Chiefs
Speaker 1: and the Washington football team. I'm going to give you
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half. That's like this line over
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half, the Bengals laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Lions, and the Cowboys laying three
Speaker 1: and a half to the Pats. I am taking the
Speaker 1: Browns laying three to the Cardinals, the Bengals and the
Speaker 1: Lions under forty seven and a half, and the Vikings
Speaker 1: now laying one and a half to the Panthers. You're
Speaker 1: ready to run through very quickly all the remaining spreads.
Speaker 3: Let's do it.
Speaker 1: Let's do it. London game, really exciting one here, the
Speaker 1: Dolphins laying three to the Jaguars.
Speaker 3: What do you think I'm gonna go?
Speaker 2: My number is actually a little below three, but it's
Speaker 2: still Miami being favored. I think it's like two and
Speaker 2: a half or so, So I'll take the Miami side
Speaker 2: of that game.
Speaker 3: I just don't want to be on the Jacksonville side.
Speaker 1: That's the correct answer, which is probably like Jacksonville like there,
Speaker 1: maybe there's some value on Jacksonville, but you just can't
Speaker 1: do it right, there's under no sus right, you just
Speaker 1: can't do it. I completely agree with you. Chargers are
Speaker 1: visiting the Ravens. I think this was the Ravens saying
Speaker 1: three when I looked early in the week. But right
Speaker 1: now it's down to two and a half. There is
Speaker 1: still three out there at FanDuel at points bet, but
Speaker 1: the consensus line Ravens laying two and a half to
Speaker 1: the Chargers in Baltimore.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my number was actually Baltimore minus four, So if
Speaker 2: I could get it at the two and a half now,
Speaker 2: I would definitely be on the Baltimore side of it. Again,
Speaker 2: to me, that one and a half points right there
Speaker 2: is worth a lot more more than the one or
Speaker 2: two points that we saw the move in the other game,
Speaker 2: so I thought it should be Baltimore minus four.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a great game.
Speaker 2: Like I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers wound up
Speaker 2: winning this, But Baltimore seems to be able. They win ugly,
Speaker 2: but they win, right and at the end of the day,
Speaker 2: you are what your record says you are. And you
Speaker 2: know they got a good record because they come through
Speaker 2: and they win those close games.
Speaker 3: So I think Baltimore wins a close one at two
Speaker 3: and a half. I would be on the Baltimore side.
Speaker 3: I think they cover.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I liked the Chargers getting the three. I don't
Speaker 1: like them under the field goal.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned because I don't know what we're
Speaker 1: gonna see here from the Ravens off that game, right,
Speaker 1: that is an emotionally draining game. That's you know, they're
Speaker 1: on a short week, so I just I'm a little
Speaker 1: concerned with what we're gonna see. I'm just I'm gonna
Speaker 1: stay away. I'm just gonna watch it completely. But if
Speaker 1: it was three, I kind of like the Chargers because
Speaker 1: I'm really god, I love I love the coaching staff,
Speaker 1: I love the way the team is playing, so I
Speaker 1: do love them. The Colts are laying ten to the
Speaker 1: Texans right here at home?
Speaker 3: What do you think too many? For me? I thought
Speaker 3: it should be eight.
Speaker 2: So again, I'm not games like this, like I don't
Speaker 2: want to. I'm not actually betting the Houston signe. Like
Speaker 2: I said at the beginning show, we don't have to
Speaker 2: bet every game. But if we're playing in a pool
Speaker 2: here and you got to pick a side, I think
Speaker 2: ten is too many points.
Speaker 3: I think the Colts are gonna win. I just think
Speaker 3: it's too many points.
Speaker 1: I agree, I'm not betting it. I agree with you,
Speaker 1: but ten points, really, I mean, given the fact like
Speaker 1: how exhausted they are, how much their spirit was broken
Speaker 1: on Monday, how decimated their secondary is, the Texans are
Speaker 1: a little better than people have kind of given them
Speaker 1: credit for, like throughout the season, ten is too many.
Speaker 1: At the same time, I'm with you, Like if I'm
Speaker 1: in a pool and I have to bet it, I'm
Speaker 1: going with the Colts. I mean, I do not have to.
Speaker 3: Bet Colt survivor pick by all means, if you got survivor,
Speaker 3: I got no problem with it. But I don't want
Speaker 3: to lay ten with them. Yeah.
Speaker 1: How about the Packers visiting the Bears. The Packers are
Speaker 1: laying five right now. There's four and a half five,
Speaker 1: five and a half actually out there at Fox Bet,
Speaker 1: but five is the consensus. What do you think?
Speaker 3: How are the Chicago Bears three and two? I have
Speaker 3: no idea how the sea was three and two.
Speaker 2: The offense is horrible, the deep is not as good
Speaker 2: as they have no idea how they've.
Speaker 3: Got the three and two. I thought this numbers should
Speaker 3: have been bigger.
Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be like if you're in
Speaker 2: one of those you know, like circa millions or something
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 3: I think this is gonna be the.
Speaker 2: Most picked game of the week. I think everybody's on
Speaker 2: the green Bay side. I know we are as well.
Speaker 2: That was one of our circle picks. So I'm going
Speaker 2: with green Bay in this one.
Speaker 3: No problem with that.
Speaker 1: How about the Rams visiting the Giants. They're laying consensus
Speaker 1: is nine and a half. It bounces back and forth
Speaker 1: between nine a half and ten. We obviously have, you know,
Speaker 1: eighteen thousand question marks right now about the Giants. We
Speaker 1: don't even know if Daniel Jones is going to be
Speaker 1: up for this game, So I don't know if you
Speaker 1: can even touch it right now, but what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, for the fact that there's all those
Speaker 2: question marks and I actually thought it should be double digits. Anyway,
Speaker 2: I would be on the Rams side of this, but
Speaker 2: again it's it's not a game i'm betting on. Again,
Speaker 2: laying ten points is a lot of points. People don't
Speaker 2: realize that's a lot of points. But I do think
Speaker 2: the Rams could cover because the Giants right now, assuming
Speaker 2: that even half of these guys are out.
Speaker 3: They're gonna be playing with like a skeleton squad. Kadarius
Speaker 3: I hear Kadarius Tony might be playing.
Speaker 2: Quarterback this week, which since I heard that, I was like,
Speaker 2: all right, I'll lay the ten in that game.
Speaker 1: I mean, and they might be better. Who knows I have.
Speaker 1: I can only get it at ten here drafting, so
Speaker 1: I wouldn't get it, but I would take it at
Speaker 1: nine and a half because again, the Rams are off
Speaker 1: the mini by they shouldn't look to make a statement here,
Speaker 1: and the Giants are just in disarray at this point,
Speaker 1: regardless of who plays. You mentioned the total in this one.
Speaker 1: How about the side the Chiefs are visiting Washington and
Speaker 1: they're laying six and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I the Chiefs are like one in four against the
Speaker 2: spread this year, and it's because the defense is so
Speaker 2: bad that you know, you always feel like the other
Speaker 2: team is going to score. At the end of the game,
Speaker 2: you feel like the Chiefs are going to score too,
Speaker 2: and it really comes down to who has it last.
Speaker 2: But if you're forcing me to take a side here,
Speaker 2: I'll take Kansas City, but I'm not betting it. I
Speaker 2: don't feel comfortable with it.
Speaker 1: What worries me a little about this game, Benny, is
Speaker 1: that this is a please tease this game down to
Speaker 1: half a point, which makes me a little worried about
Speaker 1: what we're going to see here in this game, right
Speaker 1: that this like this has got to be one of
Speaker 1: the legs and everybody's two teams teas there this week.
Speaker 3: It is.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be in mind too. I don't care if
Speaker 1: the trap doesn't matter to be, it's got to be,
Speaker 1: which makes me just a little concerned about it. So
Speaker 1: it's a stay away from me again. You mentioned the
Speaker 1: Chiefs just they I mean, they haven't been winning obviously,
Speaker 1: but they never cover if forced to take a side,
Speaker 1: I agree like it should be the Chiefs in this
Speaker 1: game under a touchdown, but man, this is day. I
Speaker 1: just that number makes me very, very nervous because it
Speaker 1: seems like they're like, we know what's gonna happen and
Speaker 1: we're okay with it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, last year they were this way and so far
Speaker 2: to start this year it's been the same way as
Speaker 2: they win a lot, well not this year, but last
Speaker 2: year they won a lot, but they.
Speaker 3: Didn't cover a lot. This year they're not winning or covering,
Speaker 3: which always makes me nervous.
Speaker 2: But at the same point in time, like if you're
Speaker 2: asking me, that's the side I want to take, you know,
Speaker 2: if I had to, But man, it just it hasn't
Speaker 2: worked out well. The variants has to swing at some point, right, Like, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's too good for it not to be.
Speaker 1: You and I take the over. We'll tease it down,
Speaker 1: We'll be fine. Raiders are visiting the Broncos. Broncos here
Speaker 1: are length three and a half. I have no idea
Speaker 1: what happens with the Gruden stuff, Like, I don't know
Speaker 1: what the impact is of it on this team, So
Speaker 1: what do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I try to go by that. I try not
Speaker 3: to use narratives here.
Speaker 2: Maybe they come out with their hair on fire and
Speaker 2: you want to prove to everybody that they're gonna be
Speaker 2: better without John Gruden or something. But just based right
Speaker 2: on the numbers, Denver's the side I want to be on.
Speaker 2: I would have liked it at minus three, but I
Speaker 2: would even lay the three and a half there because
Speaker 2: that's the side I feel more confident.
Speaker 1: Again, this is one of them that I'm just I
Speaker 1: felt like a lot of the lines are tight right
Speaker 1: now and it's not one that I want to go after.
Speaker 1: If I do pick a side, it would be Denver.
Speaker 1: Who I will I will generally if there's a tiebreaker,
Speaker 1: if I'm unsure, if I have to bet it, I
Speaker 1: will always lean the Broncos at home, particularly early in
Speaker 1: the season. But still it's a good line. It's the
Speaker 1: right line and something that I'm staying away from. Forced
Speaker 1: to choose, I would take the Broncos. This is one
Speaker 1: where I wish it was a little lower because it
Speaker 1: might have been one of my picks. But the consensus
Speaker 1: Ligne right now is the Steelers are laying five and
Speaker 1: a half to the Russell Wilson less Seahawks on Sunday, night,
Speaker 1: Well in Pittsburgh five and a half, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the problem with this game this week is
Speaker 2: you have to figure out how many points Russell Wilson
Speaker 2: is worth to the Seahawks side. My number came out
Speaker 2: to just shy of seven. I think it was like
Speaker 2: six and three quarters or something like that. So I
Speaker 2: think that this game should actually be Pittsburgh closer to
Speaker 2: six and a half. So minus five, I'd still be
Speaker 2: willing to take it there because you got to also
Speaker 2: factor in that all these other weapons are going to
Speaker 2: be decreased without oh Wilson. Oh, so you know, it
Speaker 2: hurts DK, it hurts Tyler, it hurts everybody on that
Speaker 2: entire team right now. And again another former Jet quarterback,
Speaker 2: Gino Smith going out there.
Speaker 1: So you and I love it, Yeah, I mean we've
Speaker 1: seen him enough. That's the thing that he played very
Speaker 1: very well in relief last week, like surprisingly well. I
Speaker 1: was very impressed. But it is a much much different
Speaker 1: story when you pop in in relief in a game
Speaker 1: by the way that you're down and it's a negative
Speaker 1: game script anyway, but when nobody has prepared for you whatsoever,
Speaker 1: and then you pop off a couple of good throws
Speaker 1: and everything like that. That's a much different story than when
Speaker 1: you give a team a week to say, Okay, you
Speaker 1: know Smith as the starting quarterback, let's plan our defensive
Speaker 1: game plan around this. I agree with you. This is
Speaker 1: the spot you hate back in the Steelers in right,
Speaker 1: you hate back in the Steelers when they are home favorites.
Speaker 1: You want to back them in their road underdogs, and
Speaker 1: Tomlin can get them all coached up. But still I
Speaker 1: completely agree with you, Like there's no way. And again,
Speaker 1: they look better last weekend. Like I was surprised with
Speaker 1: how cohesive their offense looked, especially the run game. And
Speaker 1: you know, their offensive line looked better. Whether it looked
Speaker 1: like more of a change in the scheme than it
Speaker 1: was suddenly them improving and everything like that, but the
Speaker 1: offense did look better. The defense is still solid. With
Speaker 1: Gino going, I think it really hurts Tyler Lockett for sure.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I will take the Steelers, even
Speaker 1: though it's five and a half. It's a little nerve wracking,
Speaker 1: but I will take them. Last game here Monday Night football,
Speaker 1: the Bills are visiting the Titans. Titans are getting five
Speaker 1: and a half points. What about this one.
Speaker 2: I mean, I have Buffalo as the number one team
Speaker 2: right now in my power rankings.
Speaker 3: This opened lower than this.
Speaker 2: This opened that like three and a half, four and
Speaker 2: a half on a lot of sites somewhere in that range.
Speaker 2: So my number was five and a half, which is
Speaker 2: what it has come up to right now. So again,
Speaker 2: if I didn't have to bet, I wouldn't be on it.
Speaker 2: But I will stick with the Buffalo side. Like I said,
Speaker 2: number one team in my power rankings right now. The
Speaker 2: defense is just elite and the offense is good enough
Speaker 2: to put up The offense is good enough to put up.
Speaker 3: A lot of points.
Speaker 2: You got an elite defense and an offense I could
Speaker 2: put up a lot of points. You're gonna win a
Speaker 2: hell of a lot of football games.
Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm taking. I'm not betting on
Speaker 1: it again. I've told you only though what I bet.
Speaker 1: But I think I take the Titans. First of all,
Speaker 1: I expect Julio Jones to play in this one. I
Speaker 1: think this is the game he comes back and you
Speaker 1: returned to practice yesterday. I don't know about today yet,
Speaker 1: but obviously it wasn't placed on my r. This is
Speaker 1: Game three. They're at home. It's a big spot. I
Speaker 1: could see a little bit of a letdown here for
Speaker 1: the Bills after coming off that giant win. But it's
Speaker 1: a tough game and it's five and a half. It's
Speaker 1: like a dead number. What do you want to do
Speaker 1: with it? But I think I'll just take the points
Speaker 1: here with the Titans. It forced too if I were
Speaker 1: in a pool, which I'm not. Benny, I really enjoyed
Speaker 1: talking to you. I'm glad you came on the show.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody you do fantastic work. Remind everybody where they
Speaker 1: can check it out.
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, you could always follow me over on Twitter
Speaker 2: at Benny R eleven. You can catch me there or
Speaker 2: anything going on at the FTN network. My fingerprints are
Speaker 2: on it, either in front of or behind the scenes
Speaker 2: one or the other day.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll keep crashing it over there in the meantime,
Speaker 1: enjoy your football this week, and everybody, we'll be back
Speaker 1: as always on Monday talking about our early reaction to
Speaker 1: the Week seven NFL lines. I will talk to you then,