WEBVTT - What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:30.164 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:30.284 --> 0:00:33.044 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:32.964 --> 0:00:35.804 And I'm Nate Silver. Today in the show, Marie's working 0:00:35.844 --> 0:00:39.124 on a TV show. She's been very coy about it, 0:00:39.204 --> 0:00:42.044 even with me, frankly, but now she has no more 0:00:42.804 --> 0:00:44.244 need to be. We're going to talk a little bit 0:00:44.244 --> 0:00:44.644 about that. 0:00:45.364 --> 0:00:47.724 Yeah, that's going to be the lead in to the 0:00:48.124 --> 0:00:50.724 to the meat of the episode, which is, you know, 0:00:51.044 --> 0:00:55.404 poker and gambling are big topics in movies and shows, 0:00:55.444 --> 0:00:58.324 but Nate, honestly, there are not that many good poker movies. 0:00:58.524 --> 0:01:00.004 There are a lot of bad. Yeah, there are a 0:01:00.044 --> 0:01:01.644 lot of bad poker movies. 0:01:01.844 --> 0:01:04.404 There are a lot of really bad poker movies out there. 0:01:04.444 --> 0:01:06.124 So we're gonna talking about some of the tropes and 0:01:06.164 --> 0:01:10.124 cliches that annoy Maria and I as actually poker players. 0:01:10.124 --> 0:01:13.364 But like, tell us more about this very exciting First all, 0:01:13.404 --> 0:01:14.804 does it have a title? Can you share that? 0:01:14.964 --> 0:01:17.484 Or is that no, this does not have a titled. 0:01:17.764 --> 0:01:22.084 I am working on the most exciting untitled. Okay, it 0:01:22.124 --> 0:01:23.484 is called untitled. 0:01:24.604 --> 0:01:29.164 That could be a title. Yeah, absolutely, what's the show about, Maria, 0:01:29.204 --> 0:01:31.644 It's it's a gambling adjacent. 0:01:32.524 --> 0:01:35.444 Is it is, so we're going to be when we 0:01:35.644 --> 0:01:40.164 start talking about actually good poker movies. The names that 0:01:40.204 --> 0:01:43.044 are going to come up are Brian Koppleman and David Levine, 0:01:43.244 --> 0:01:46.604 who were the creators of Rounders, which, as we will 0:01:46.764 --> 0:01:49.924 tell you, is probably the best poker movie that has 0:01:50.004 --> 0:01:52.524 been made, and the two of them have teamed up 0:01:52.604 --> 0:01:58.604 with Martin Scorsese to a TV He's just a guy, yeah, cigure, 0:01:58.804 --> 0:02:01.324 he's new. He's he's kind of young, like newcomer to 0:02:01.484 --> 0:02:04.964 the you know, to the world of screen. It's okay 0:02:05.004 --> 0:02:07.284 that you haven't heard of him. You know, he might 0:02:07.324 --> 0:02:12.164 as well be untitled. They are teaming up to do 0:02:12.244 --> 0:02:15.764 a TV show about Vegas and about the world of 0:02:15.964 --> 0:02:19.964 casinos and gambling and you know, all of all of 0:02:20.004 --> 0:02:23.604 those fun, high stakes things. And we I'm one of 0:02:23.604 --> 0:02:25.884 the writers on the show, and we've been working on 0:02:25.964 --> 0:02:30.724 it since September, I guess is when the writer's room started. 0:02:30.764 --> 0:02:33.644 But yes, I've been very coy about it because you know, 0:02:33.684 --> 0:02:35.564 it's it's something that we really didn't want to talk 0:02:35.564 --> 0:02:38.724 about until the show was picked up. Nate, I don't 0:02:38.724 --> 0:02:42.204 know how much you know about the inner workings of Hollywood. 0:02:42.444 --> 0:02:43.284 But even when. 0:02:45.404 --> 0:02:51.044 Even if we have such no name people as exactly exactly, 0:02:51.484 --> 0:02:54.244 even if you have people whose name Martin Score score 0:02:54.244 --> 0:02:57.844 what Yeah, even if you have Scorsese and Koppleman and 0:02:57.924 --> 0:03:01.164 Levine and like all of these heavy hitters who have 0:03:01.884 --> 0:03:07.404 a lot of you know, not just sway, but proof 0:03:07.484 --> 0:03:10.004 that they can do things that people want to watch, right, 0:03:10.044 --> 0:03:12.004 which is what which is what Hollywood wants, which is 0:03:12.004 --> 0:03:14.964 what Netflix want. They want people who can bring eyeballs, 0:03:15.164 --> 0:03:17.564 and you have and you have this team who definitely 0:03:17.884 --> 0:03:21.204 has a really good track record and doing this. You know, 0:03:21.244 --> 0:03:24.284 these are these are people who can really make sure 0:03:24.324 --> 0:03:27.284 that viewers come and they they've they're known for making 0:03:27.324 --> 0:03:31.524 good television, good good films. And yet right even still 0:03:31.884 --> 0:03:34.004 that's not a guarantee that something's going to be made 0:03:34.044 --> 0:03:37.724 these days. It's a really, really tough market. So we 0:03:37.724 --> 0:03:40.404 were just waiting until you know, the green light, the 0:03:40.404 --> 0:03:43.884 official announcements, the go aheads and that's where we are 0:03:43.964 --> 0:03:46.764 right now. But it's something that's really exciting. It is 0:03:46.924 --> 0:03:50.164 such a rich world, as you know, you know, I 0:03:50.204 --> 0:03:53.884 spend at least half my year in Vegas and have 0:03:54.004 --> 0:03:56.244 been doing that for a number of years now, and 0:03:56.444 --> 0:04:00.204 I'm really excited to kind of have content that actually 0:04:00.964 --> 0:04:05.364 shows Vegas the way it is and that understands, you know, 0:04:05.884 --> 0:04:09.684 what this world actually entails, because I feel like so 0:04:09.844 --> 0:04:13.404 much out there is written and told by people who 0:04:13.484 --> 0:04:16.444 have no fucking clue to be perfectly honest, right, they're 0:04:16.444 --> 0:04:19.284 not of Vegas, they're not of the gambling world. They 0:04:19.284 --> 0:04:22.924 don't understand the dynamics here, and it shows. So I'm 0:04:22.964 --> 0:04:24.804 really excited. I think we have a great team in 0:04:24.884 --> 0:04:28.164 place of people who actually know what they're talking about. 0:04:29.724 --> 0:04:31.444 I have no idea how the show's going to come out, 0:04:31.484 --> 0:04:33.444 but I'm proud and happy. 0:04:33.604 --> 0:04:36.684 What's it like actually in the writer's room, You're like, 0:04:36.724 --> 0:04:37.924 are you actually in a room? 0:04:38.844 --> 0:04:40.124 Oh, we're actually in a room. 0:04:40.204 --> 0:04:42.364 Yes, we actually you have to have right in front 0:04:42.364 --> 0:04:42.964 of other people. 0:04:43.444 --> 0:04:45.724 No, you don't write in front of other people. The 0:04:45.764 --> 0:04:49.084 way a writers room works is you sit in a 0:04:49.164 --> 0:04:52.924 room with a bunch of people and you brainstorm, and 0:04:52.964 --> 0:04:56.924 you kind of you throw ideas back and forth and 0:04:56.964 --> 0:04:59.444 you develop things. You try to figure out you know, 0:04:59.444 --> 0:05:01.404 what's the shape of an episode going to look like. 0:05:01.604 --> 0:05:03.764 There are lots of whiteboards around and you know you're 0:05:03.764 --> 0:05:06.404 write on those, but it's Yeah, it's more of a 0:05:06.924 --> 0:05:12.644 you don't start saying like scene one, Nate Silver says, Maria, 0:05:13.084 --> 0:05:18.044 what are we talking today about today on Risky Business? Maria, Nate, 0:05:18.164 --> 0:05:19.484 are we going to do this again? 0:05:20.164 --> 0:05:20.444 Nate? 0:05:20.804 --> 0:05:22.084 What are you talking about? 0:05:22.284 --> 0:05:22.644 Maria? 0:05:22.964 --> 0:05:27.884 Yeah, that's not how a writer's works. It is much 0:05:27.964 --> 0:05:32.644 more of a kind of back and forth collaborative, like 0:05:32.764 --> 0:05:35.364 let's get ideas going off each other. 0:05:35.884 --> 0:05:38.324 Who actually writes the actual script though, someone's like, I'm 0:05:38.324 --> 0:05:40.804 just gonna take all your inpoint into account and write 0:05:40.844 --> 0:05:41.204 the show. 0:05:41.484 --> 0:05:44.484 It depends. It depends on the show. It depends on 0:05:45.964 --> 0:05:48.444 It depends on how things are set up so far. 0:05:48.604 --> 0:05:51.684 For I actually don't know if I'm allowed to have 0:05:51.844 --> 0:05:54.204 how much I'm allowed to say, but I believe I 0:05:54.244 --> 0:05:56.844 think that this is actually pretty public for this show 0:05:56.844 --> 0:05:59.164 so far. Brian and David, you know, we'll be taking 0:05:59.164 --> 0:06:02.284 the lead on writing all of the episodes because they're 0:06:02.324 --> 0:06:03.924 both really excited about this show. 0:06:04.044 --> 0:06:06.164 So can they just like passively aggressively say oh, I 0:06:06.164 --> 0:06:08.164 appreciate that feedback and then ignore it. 0:06:08.844 --> 0:06:12.164 Oh? Sure, absolutely, But they wouldn't. They wouldn't do that 0:06:12.204 --> 0:06:15.044 if they don't like very They would tell you that 0:06:15.124 --> 0:06:15.844 they don't like it. 0:06:16.524 --> 0:06:19.364 Yes, when's so, what's the timeline for, like when this 0:06:19.404 --> 0:06:19.924 would air? 0:06:21.204 --> 0:06:27.924 Ha ha okay, okay, okay, okay, that's not me, that's Hollywood. 0:06:28.204 --> 0:06:31.564 Okay, No, we yeah, it's. 0:06:31.404 --> 0:06:35.484 It's very early in the process, and so it's unclear. 0:06:35.644 --> 0:06:40.124 I mean, and I you know, I'm not Brian or David, 0:06:40.244 --> 0:06:42.404 so I am not kind of in the driver's seat 0:06:42.484 --> 0:06:45.084 of any of those decisions. So I just know what 0:06:45.124 --> 0:06:47.444 I'm told, and I have no idea when this is 0:06:47.484 --> 0:06:50.244 going to be on air. But yes, this is really fun. 0:06:50.884 --> 0:06:54.204 It's been a great experience. I love the I love 0:06:54.244 --> 0:06:57.644 the team, and I've loved working with them, and I'm 0:06:57.684 --> 0:07:00.044 excited for it too, you know, for it to be 0:07:00.124 --> 0:07:03.884 on everyone's TV screens and or computer screens or phone 0:07:03.924 --> 0:07:08.044 screens or however you consume your content. And on. On 0:07:08.084 --> 0:07:10.604 that note, let's talk a little bit more about, you know, 0:07:11.004 --> 0:07:15.004 poker and gambling movies more broadly, which ones we like, 0:07:15.204 --> 0:07:17.884 which ones we don't like, the good, the bad, the ugly. 0:07:17.924 --> 0:07:20.964 Because Nate, there are a lot of really bad poker 0:07:21.004 --> 0:07:21.804 movies out there. 0:07:21.964 --> 0:07:26.124 We're gonna have like an escalating pyramid of like sins 0:07:26.164 --> 0:07:30.484 against poker that are sometimes depicted in bad poker movies, 0:07:30.524 --> 0:07:33.924 movies that include poker scenes that aren't about poker, you 0:07:33.964 --> 0:07:36.404 know number one, some of whose don't even understand the 0:07:36.444 --> 0:07:39.284 notion of like table stakes, right, they have the notion 0:07:39.324 --> 0:07:42.084 that like, okay, yeah, somebody better it's not gonna call 0:07:42.124 --> 0:07:45.684 my investor, pause the hand, right, we call my investors 0:07:45.844 --> 0:07:48.884 because of a good hand getting million dollars. That's one trope, right. 0:07:48.924 --> 0:07:53.684 Another trope is like the you know, royal flush versus 0:07:54.004 --> 0:07:57.524 for a kind kind of thing where you're your cold. 0:07:57.284 --> 0:08:00.244 Decks, Nate, have you seen a casino royal? 0:08:00.684 --> 0:08:04.524 Yeah, this is an example, right, but yeah, a weak 0:08:04.564 --> 0:08:07.324 flush against the busted draw kind of thing, right, And 0:08:07.404 --> 0:08:09.364 the vast majority of the time, like I've never liked, 0:08:11.204 --> 0:08:14.444 I ever lost with quads. Probably not in all the 0:08:14.444 --> 0:08:16.204 poker hands that I've played. I'm trying to think if 0:08:16.204 --> 0:08:18.204 they've sure lost with full houses to quads, right, but 0:08:18.244 --> 0:08:21.324 maybe not lost with quads let alone, you know, straight 0:08:21.364 --> 0:08:23.684 flush over straight flush or things like that, And that's 0:08:23.724 --> 0:08:25.764 that's not realistic. You know. Another big one that like, 0:08:25.844 --> 0:08:29.804 I get annoyed because I'll sometimes deal amateur backyard poker 0:08:29.844 --> 0:08:32.484 games with one group of friends, right, people picking their 0:08:32.524 --> 0:08:35.204 cards up way off the table to look at them 0:08:35.284 --> 0:08:36.764 like that's super Oh my god. 0:08:36.804 --> 0:08:40.804 But that no, Nate, that happens all the time. Yeah, 0:08:40.844 --> 0:08:41.644 with bad players. 0:08:41.684 --> 0:08:42.044 I see. 0:08:42.124 --> 0:08:46.244 So I just played in a charity event last week, 0:08:46.684 --> 0:08:49.204 great great school charity, but there were tons of people 0:08:49.244 --> 0:08:52.004 who don't know how to play poker, and the first thing, 0:08:52.084 --> 0:08:53.804 or who play it but like not that well, the 0:08:53.804 --> 0:08:55.564 first thing they do is they take their cards up 0:08:55.564 --> 0:08:56.884 and they put them in our face. I'm like, no, 0:08:57.044 --> 0:09:00.084 put that shit down, right, like, that is not how 0:09:00.124 --> 0:09:02.604 you look at your cards. But I've had that happen 0:09:03.364 --> 0:09:06.204 in tournaments as well, Like there are players who just 0:09:06.364 --> 0:09:09.004 do that, and I'm like, you have no business playing 0:09:09.044 --> 0:09:12.324 a thousand dollar tournament or whatever, you know, five thousand 0:09:12.364 --> 0:09:14.404 dollars tournament if that's how you look at your cards, 0:09:14.444 --> 0:09:17.084 because people can see that. And I do try to 0:09:17.124 --> 0:09:20.484 warn people, you know, not to do it, but sometimes 0:09:20.524 --> 0:09:23.324 they just won't listen and they just keep keep putting 0:09:23.364 --> 0:09:26.484 them up. But in these movies, oftentimes that's how everyone 0:09:26.604 --> 0:09:29.084 looks at their cards, and I think that that it 0:09:29.484 --> 0:09:32.204 is very frustrating when you see that. You're like, no, 0:09:32.204 --> 0:09:35.124 no professional player would actually ever look at a hand 0:09:35.124 --> 0:09:37.484 that way, and yet you see all the time, hmm, 0:09:38.044 --> 0:09:41.404 let's see what do I have here, Let's show it 0:09:41.444 --> 0:09:42.404 to the cameras. 0:09:43.084 --> 0:09:45.644 Yeah, you're trying to conceal information, right, that's the name 0:09:45.644 --> 0:09:47.284 of the game. And like, yeah, you know the people 0:09:47.284 --> 0:09:49.524 who unintentionally at their cards up too high, but like 0:09:49.564 --> 0:09:52.724 that's that's like bad antiquette. There's very little awareness in 0:09:52.804 --> 0:09:57.124 poker movies of like what the stack sizes are, right, 0:09:57.484 --> 0:09:59.604 you know, yes, what is the amount that you have 0:10:00.204 --> 0:10:03.004 behind you? Relatively amount in the pot, which can like 0:10:03.124 --> 0:10:05.524 radically change strategy. Right, if there's a hundred thousand dollars 0:10:05.524 --> 0:10:07.124 in the pot and you have a million dollars behind you, 0:10:07.764 --> 0:10:11.124 very different than if you have only quote unquote another 0:10:11.164 --> 0:10:14.884 fifty thousand dollars with In fact, early poker broadcasts you 0:10:14.884 --> 0:10:20.244 watch like early early World Series coverage or early WPT coverage, right, 0:10:20.684 --> 0:10:22.884 and they often don't list the stack sizes, which makes 0:10:22.884 --> 0:10:27.844 it like to a first approximation approximately useless to professional 0:10:27.844 --> 0:10:29.764 book a player. But and you don't have It's like 0:10:29.964 --> 0:10:31.564 it's like watching a mess we and you don't know 0:10:31.604 --> 0:10:33.204 what the score is. Right, There's a really exciting play 0:10:33.204 --> 0:10:35.244 and we're not sure which team won. So that's like 0:10:35.284 --> 0:10:37.884 another trope that needs to be needs to be killed. 0:10:38.724 --> 0:10:40.644 Yeah, and I think that a lot of times. By 0:10:40.644 --> 0:10:42.764 the way, Casino Royale is a fun movie. I like 0:10:42.844 --> 0:10:45.764 that movie. I think it's a great movie. Daniel Craig 0:10:45.884 --> 0:10:48.644 is wonderful. But one of the things that that movie, like, 0:10:48.724 --> 0:10:51.644 it really bugs me is if you think about kind 0:10:51.644 --> 0:10:54.284 of the sizes of those pots and those steaks, like 0:10:54.444 --> 0:10:57.724 no one has anything behind, right, Their buy ins are 0:10:57.764 --> 0:11:02.244 completely illogical when it comes to the stakes of the game, Like, wait, 0:11:02.364 --> 0:11:05.444 if we're playing that much a hand, then everyone, then 0:11:05.564 --> 0:11:07.244 you're not buying in for a million dollars. You have 0:11:07.284 --> 0:11:09.484 to buy in for a lot more, right, Like that 0:11:09.644 --> 0:11:13.164 stacked to pot ratio should not be happening at these intervals, 0:11:13.164 --> 0:11:15.764 and so people really do lose that sense of perspective 0:11:15.764 --> 0:11:18.164 because they're like, oh, a million sounds like a big number, right, 0:11:18.204 --> 0:11:20.444 And this sounds like a big number, but there is 0:11:20.604 --> 0:11:23.804 a lack of kind of knowledge about what the number 0:11:23.844 --> 0:11:26.364 should be. And let me then add on to that. 0:11:26.444 --> 0:11:30.244 Things that can frustrate me is that movies tend to 0:11:30.284 --> 0:11:34.244 conflate tournament and cash poker, right, like there's no clear 0:11:34.364 --> 0:11:37.484 they don't really understand that the two are very different games, 0:11:37.844 --> 0:11:39.884 and that you can play poker where chips have no 0:11:39.964 --> 0:11:42.964 monetary value. And so it really frustrates me when you 0:11:42.964 --> 0:11:46.564 see people playing a tournament and they're announcing their bets 0:11:46.564 --> 0:11:51.124 in terms of dollars and they're basically kind of carrying 0:11:51.124 --> 0:11:53.044 on as if it's a cash game. But I'm like, wait, no, 0:11:53.124 --> 0:11:55.804 you're in a tournament. That's not how this works, right, 0:11:56.004 --> 0:11:57.644 You're not betting ten dollars. 0:11:57.324 --> 0:11:59.564 Or you're not now my mom, my mom is a 0:11:59.644 --> 0:12:03.364 victim of So I was playing in some World Poker 0:12:03.404 --> 0:12:06.124 taur tournament two years ago, right, and like whatever, you 0:12:06.124 --> 0:12:09.364 start out with sixty thousan chips, a hundred thousand pips thing, 0:12:09.404 --> 0:12:11.284 maybe an impt and like I wound up with like 0:12:12.204 --> 0:12:13.724 four hundred and fifty thousand SCHIPs at the end of 0:12:13.764 --> 0:12:15.724 day one, was one of the chip leaders. It got 0:12:15.724 --> 0:12:17.684 circular on social media. My mom was like, you made 0:12:17.684 --> 0:12:19.844 four to few thousand dollars. I'm like, no, Mom, might 0:12:19.884 --> 0:12:23.644 have made I've made zero dollars so far. I think 0:12:23.684 --> 0:12:26.324 I eventually catched that hearing it for seven thousand dollars 0:12:26.764 --> 0:12:30.044 or something, right, which is probably your modal expectation. After 0:12:30.164 --> 0:12:31.324 day one, even with a big. 0:12:31.164 --> 0:12:34.924 Stack, And so, yeah, your mom can be forgiven, because 0:12:34.924 --> 0:12:37.164 a lot of times movies make it seem that way 0:12:37.364 --> 0:12:39.644 with like the dollar signs and all of that. But yes, 0:12:39.724 --> 0:12:41.644 I've had people be like, oh my god, why can't 0:12:41.684 --> 0:12:43.404 you just take it and leave at the end of 0:12:43.444 --> 0:12:45.844 the day. I'm like, because this isn't money, Like this 0:12:45.884 --> 0:12:49.444 is play money. These are play chips, and I can't know, 0:12:49.604 --> 0:12:51.884 of course, Like believe me, if I could not, if 0:12:51.884 --> 0:12:55.444 I could cash out a million right now, then then 0:12:55.484 --> 0:12:58.484 I'd be I'd be out of there. By the way. 0:12:58.884 --> 0:13:00.884 Great poker movie that I would put in my top 0:13:00.924 --> 0:13:03.084 three and eight, I'm wondering if you've seen this one 0:13:03.484 --> 0:13:09.284 is California Split, which is a classic by Robert Altman, 0:13:09.564 --> 0:13:13.484 and it's about two friends, one of whom's a degenerate gambler, 0:13:13.484 --> 0:13:17.284 one of whom becomes a degenerate gambler by association. But 0:13:17.524 --> 0:13:20.644 there's a there are some great poker scenes in there, 0:13:21.644 --> 0:13:23.804 and I think that that also one of the things 0:13:23.804 --> 0:13:27.404 that gets right is it really depicts kind of that 0:13:28.204 --> 0:13:32.564 the mentality of the gambler who is up and makes 0:13:32.604 --> 0:13:37.084 money and won't walk away right, who thinks that okay, 0:13:37.124 --> 0:13:39.604 you know, but then at the end, I mean, I'm 0:13:39.644 --> 0:13:42.364 gonna spoiler this. This movie came out decades ago. If 0:13:42.404 --> 0:13:45.324 you haven't seen it, Like, just watch the movie. It's 0:13:45.324 --> 0:13:47.324 a good movie. But at the end, one of them 0:13:47.364 --> 0:13:50.204 does walk away, right, He does actually make that decision 0:13:50.604 --> 0:13:55.004 after winning in this huge game with Amarillo. Slim actually 0:13:55.004 --> 0:13:58.564 an amoralos. Slim has a part in the movie and 0:13:59.044 --> 0:14:01.684 ends up ends up walking away winner and then splitting 0:14:01.804 --> 0:14:04.844 the winnings and just saying I'm done. And I think 0:14:04.884 --> 0:14:08.364 that that's very cool, and that does happen as well, 0:14:08.524 --> 0:14:11.284 but it does depict to that kind of mental calculus 0:14:11.324 --> 0:14:13.924 also of is this a good spot? Is this a 0:14:13.964 --> 0:14:18.084 good game? Right? Can I make more money here? When 0:14:18.124 --> 0:14:20.804 should I walk away? When did I get lucky? Because 0:14:20.844 --> 0:14:22.804 I just beat players who were a lot better than 0:14:22.844 --> 0:14:25.484 I was a lot of people don't have that discipline 0:14:25.484 --> 0:14:28.164 and don't have that self awareness, and a lot of people, 0:14:28.524 --> 0:14:31.044 as we've talked about in the past, night end up 0:14:31.244 --> 0:14:34.164 having an overblown sense of their own edge and their 0:14:34.204 --> 0:14:37.364 own skill. And so it's such a good poker skill 0:14:37.444 --> 0:14:39.404 to know, Okay, you know what, I'm just going to 0:14:39.444 --> 0:14:41.644 take this money and I'm going to leave. You don't 0:14:41.644 --> 0:14:44.244 see that often depicted correctly in movies. 0:14:44.644 --> 0:14:46.404 Yeah, it's not quite a poker movie, but as a 0:14:46.444 --> 0:14:49.644 gambling movie. The movie twenty one, which is based on 0:14:49.684 --> 0:14:52.004 the book Bringing Down the House by Ben Mezrick, that 0:14:52.044 --> 0:14:54.164 came out kind of right when it was getting into poker, 0:14:54.204 --> 0:14:56.404 and like that, I guess the book could come out 0:14:56.444 --> 0:14:59.004 the movie was maybe later, right, And I know Jeff 0:14:59.044 --> 0:15:03.284 ma one of the principles behind this Good Guy, you know, 0:15:03.404 --> 0:15:05.964 that depicted a very romantic idea of like you kind 0:15:05.964 --> 0:15:10.484 of fly into Vegas and you're literally bringing home suitcases 0:15:10.524 --> 0:15:13.284 of cash, right and kind of staying up all night. 0:15:13.324 --> 0:15:15.644 And when I talked to Jeff for my book about 0:15:15.644 --> 0:15:17.604 his experience the MIT black Jack Team, which is what 0:15:17.644 --> 0:15:19.804 it's about, it's like, yeah, no, right, we would kind 0:15:19.804 --> 0:15:22.204 of like you know, we would go and this is 0:15:22.284 --> 0:15:25.564 before you even had nightclubs in Las Vegas, right, we 0:15:25.604 --> 0:15:27.364 were when it was always going to Vegas. We're going 0:15:27.364 --> 0:15:30.324 to some fucking casino and like Dubuque, Iowa half the time. 0:15:30.444 --> 0:15:32.444 So we thought it was a sharper or a less sharp, 0:15:33.764 --> 0:15:35.964 you know, less detection of card counters, which is what 0:15:36.004 --> 0:15:39.844 they were doing. Right. So, like you know, real gambling 0:15:40.764 --> 0:15:44.644 is a grind most of the time, right, And like 0:15:44.724 --> 0:15:46.004 one thing you see too, like this is a problem 0:15:46.044 --> 0:15:47.644 with like movies in general, Like Maria, I would like 0:15:47.644 --> 0:15:51.004 for there be like a movie or this TV show 0:15:51.084 --> 0:15:57.564 right where like there are complications that unfold and then 0:15:57.604 --> 0:16:01.804 they kind of unravel themselves in a very non dramatic way. 0:16:01.804 --> 0:16:05.284 It's like, oh, that was just a misunderstanding. That was 0:16:05.284 --> 0:16:08.804 just a misunderstanding. Actually, right, let's just make up and 0:16:08.844 --> 0:16:10.924 you know, and nothing much happens to the anti clima. 0:16:10.964 --> 0:16:13.764 Actually know all that foreshadowing. Those are just weird coincidences. 0:16:13.804 --> 0:16:16.484 Nothing actually happened, just to keep people on their toes, 0:16:17.204 --> 0:16:21.084 just to have some like gto bluffing frequency when you're 0:16:21.084 --> 0:16:23.404 having the more predictable I guess outcome, you know what 0:16:23.404 --> 0:16:26.204 I mean. But that probably won't happen. But yeah, Jeff's 0:16:26.204 --> 0:16:29.564 biggest complain about the book, particularly the movie. I mean 0:16:29.604 --> 0:16:33.044 the book itself and is a althor another person I 0:16:33.164 --> 0:16:36.284 met friendly guy, you know. Ben says, this is kind 0:16:36.284 --> 0:16:39.404 of a popular book and I wouldn't say inspire bat 0:16:39.404 --> 0:16:42.004 toy story, but it's trying to to make a little 0:16:42.004 --> 0:16:44.964 more cinematic and the movie goes further. Right, Jeff says, look, 0:16:45.364 --> 0:16:48.404 the movie didn't depict so Heet really mad. When a 0:16:48.524 --> 0:16:52.964 scene depicts him or his character on tilt, the character 0:16:53.124 --> 0:16:58.524 like loses every single hand he plays, Whereas conversely, when 0:16:58.524 --> 0:17:01.764 they're doing things the right way right, they win every 0:17:01.764 --> 0:17:03.884 single hand. They might literally not be a hand that 0:17:03.924 --> 0:17:06.244 they don't win. Right. Similarly, in like rain Man, it 0:17:06.284 --> 0:17:08.924 doesn't Hoffman character right, he goes and they win every hand. 0:17:09.004 --> 0:17:11.644 And like blackjack, even if you kind of know how 0:17:11.684 --> 0:17:13.924 many cards you're in the bet, yeah, you might have 0:17:13.964 --> 0:17:17.004 a fifty two, fifty three to fifty four percent edge, 0:17:17.004 --> 0:17:18.884 which is very big for gambling, right, but you're not. 0:17:18.884 --> 0:17:21.004 Going to be winning huge by the way, Yeah, yeah, but. 0:17:21.044 --> 0:17:22.404 You're not gonna be winning every bet. 0:17:22.484 --> 0:17:22.604 Right. 0:17:22.604 --> 0:17:26.284 It's very hard to depict like randomness, and it's hard 0:17:26.284 --> 0:17:27.564 in real life. It's hard to say I made a 0:17:27.564 --> 0:17:30.564 good forecast, I made a good bet. There was a 0:17:30.564 --> 0:17:32.604 fifty five to forty five bet, which is great. You're 0:17:32.604 --> 0:17:35.124 still going to lose that bet forty five percent of 0:17:35.204 --> 0:17:36.924 the time. Right. The notion of a sure thing, the 0:17:36.964 --> 0:17:39.844 notion of you know, variance, goes out the window, and 0:17:39.924 --> 0:17:41.564 randomness goes out the window. It's all the kind of 0:17:41.564 --> 0:17:45.124 a morality play, and like that's another unrealistic component of 0:17:45.204 --> 0:17:49.044 like of movies in general, but especially gambling adjacent movies. 0:17:49.764 --> 0:17:52.164 Yeah, no, absolutely, I mean I think that a lot 0:17:52.204 --> 0:17:57.644 of things have to change in service of storytelling and 0:17:58.444 --> 0:18:02.284 creating a story that's both visually compelling and also has 0:18:02.324 --> 0:18:08.004 a compelling kind of storyline and that seems plausible to people. So, 0:18:08.764 --> 0:18:10.644 you know the part of what you were talking about, 0:18:10.684 --> 0:18:12.804 how like the actual trips did not look at all 0:18:12.884 --> 0:18:15.964 like that, you know, not flying to Las Vegas for 0:18:16.004 --> 0:18:18.764 these glamorous weekends every time and you're obviously like in 0:18:18.764 --> 0:18:21.844 the middle of nowhere and like not very glamorous casinos, 0:18:21.884 --> 0:18:24.204 doing not very glamorous things. That's part of it. That's 0:18:24.284 --> 0:18:26.124 kind of part of the visual appeal and kind of 0:18:26.124 --> 0:18:29.724 the story. But the other part of it, the randomness. 0:18:30.004 --> 0:18:35.124 I think that that is something that you know, the 0:18:35.204 --> 0:18:40.324 human mind just completely struggles with. And poker. We've talked 0:18:40.364 --> 0:18:43.644 about this before, as I spoke about with Frank Lance, 0:18:43.684 --> 0:18:47.164 who who studies games. He's a game designer. He teaches 0:18:47.204 --> 0:18:51.404 games at NYU. You know, he loves poker because poker 0:18:51.524 --> 0:18:54.564 is a game that teaches you what true randomness looks 0:18:54.644 --> 0:18:57.524 like and he told me that you can't do that 0:18:57.644 --> 0:19:00.804 in a game that's designed, you know, like a computer game, 0:19:00.884 --> 0:19:04.364 because true randomness doesn't seem random to the players, right, 0:19:04.404 --> 0:19:07.524 So they actually have like random number generators that aren't random, 0:19:07.804 --> 0:19:10.004 where you have like, okay, like if this person has 0:19:10.124 --> 0:19:13.844 lost this many times, you know, then you need to 0:19:13.884 --> 0:19:16.564 have him win now because they're gonna think that the 0:19:16.604 --> 0:19:20.404 game is rigged. And so it's just disconnect where when 0:19:20.404 --> 0:19:23.444 the game isn't rigged, it feels rigged, and when it's rigged, 0:19:23.484 --> 0:19:27.284 it doesn't feel rigged because the actual way that randomness 0:19:27.364 --> 0:19:30.164 works can feel rigged right to the human mind. Just why, 0:19:30.164 --> 0:19:32.324 by the way, so many people are like, oh, Booker's rigged, 0:19:32.404 --> 0:19:34.564 like this is rigged. That's rigged, because they're like, how 0:19:34.564 --> 0:19:37.364 improbable is I'm like, no, it's not fucking rigged, Like 0:19:37.444 --> 0:19:39.884 this is just character like this is how probable it 0:19:39.964 --> 0:19:43.724 can be, yes, but yeah, this is how like this 0:19:43.804 --> 0:19:48.724 is how probabilities actually work. But now, like if you 0:19:48.804 --> 0:19:53.444 can't grasp that when you yourself are playing a game, now, 0:19:53.524 --> 0:19:57.724 imagine like the poor filmmaker trying to make something seem 0:19:57.804 --> 0:20:02.884 realistic and trying to make randomness and variants look real, like, 0:20:03.324 --> 0:20:05.524 oh man, that's a thankless task, right. 0:20:05.404 --> 0:20:05.724 You can't. 0:20:05.764 --> 0:20:09.644 You can't, like, for the sake of storytelling, you need 0:20:09.684 --> 0:20:13.564 to actually play around with it so that it seems 0:20:14.004 --> 0:20:16.804 random even though it's not actually random, and that's not 0:20:17.044 --> 0:20:21.324 how randomness works. And so you do have this constant 0:20:21.364 --> 0:20:24.044 tension where like you understand what it should be like 0:20:24.084 --> 0:20:26.324 in reality, but you can't do it right. You're making 0:20:26.364 --> 0:20:28.644 a movie. You have to keep the audience engauge, and 0:20:28.724 --> 0:20:31.364 even when you're a game designer, you can't do it, 0:20:31.604 --> 0:20:35.404 which is once again why Frank Lance likes the purity 0:20:35.444 --> 0:20:38.564 of poker, because you know the game is what it is, 0:20:39.284 --> 0:20:41.844 and you can't fuck with it by by being a 0:20:41.964 --> 0:20:45.124