Speaker 1: What if I told you the most important number guiding
Speaker 1: the US economy and monetary policy right now is quietly
Speaker 1: rising and no one's talking about it. Now, you've been
Speaker 1: told everything's under control, that the economy is strong, and
Speaker 1: the worst is behind us. But what if the numbers
Speaker 1: they're feeding us are fake and the one number that
Speaker 1: really matters is moving in a direction that could change
Speaker 1: everything for your money, your savings, and your future. Now,
Speaker 1: in this video, I'm going to expose the truth behind
Speaker 1: these so called strong numbers, reveal why this critical metric
Speaker 1: is rising fast, and show you what it means for
Speaker 1: the economy, your wallet, and the global financial system. Now,
Speaker 1: the signals are already flashing red from the bond market
Speaker 1: to gold to silver, but most people are completely missing them.
Speaker 1: Not real quick. My name is Mark Moss. I'm going
Speaker 1: to tech Focus VC investor. For over a decade, I'm
Speaker 1: a partner at a leading tech VC hedge fund. I
Speaker 1: coach business owners on investing, and I'm sharing some of
Speaker 1: the same data that we're using to make long term
Speaker 1: decisions with you for free. So let's go all right now,
Speaker 1: the critical number that's right, the critical number that we
Speaker 1: were told is going down but it's going back up.
Speaker 1: You've probably guessed it by now. We're talking about inflation,
Speaker 1: and inflation is creeping back up. Now. They don't want
Speaker 1: you to see this. There's a lot of ambiguity in
Speaker 1: the numbers. But let's dig into this a little bit
Speaker 1: and it's worse than you think. So we can see
Speaker 1: some of the headlines are starting to pop back up.
Speaker 1: This one just popped up a day or two ago.
Speaker 1: That inflation progress, meaning they're trying to get inflation back down.
Speaker 1: The progress is stalled out in October. So the numbers
Speaker 1: just came in and it wasn't good. But December, the
Speaker 1: Fed is still expected to cut rates. So as they're
Speaker 1: cutting rates, this is pushing inflation higher. But the problem
Speaker 1: is the progress of getting inflation down is bad. We
Speaker 1: just saw an election decided and one of the big
Speaker 1: things was inflation. People can't afford groceries is a big
Speaker 1: hot topic and they want the new administration to get
Speaker 1: this fixed. But how can they if the Fed is
Speaker 1: going to continue to cut rates. Now we can see
Speaker 1: some of the exact data right here. It says here
Speaker 1: that the CPI rose two point six in October. Core
Speaker 1: inflation is one of the main numbers that they're looking at. Here.
Speaker 1: It excludes volatile food and energy prices. Of course, the
Speaker 1: only things that we need. We need food, we need energy.
Speaker 1: Everything else is secondary, right, but it excludes those things.
Speaker 1: And it increased three point three percent over the last
Speaker 1: twelve months after rising three point three percent in September.
Speaker 1: So it's stalled out. It's hitting the same numbers. They're
Speaker 1: not making positive progress on that. Inflation came in a
Speaker 1: bit higher than we expected in October. So just like
Speaker 1: publicly traded companies, the FED, the government, the BLS, they
Speaker 1: project where they want these numbers to be on track,
Speaker 1: and when they come in higher, you know, whether they
Speaker 1: missed the numbers, whether the higher low, it's a big problem.
Speaker 1: Now we can see sort of back to this core cpis.
Speaker 1: You can sort of see what this is working with.
Speaker 1: So here's all items. We have food right here. Energy
Speaker 1: went way down supposedly, I guess because my electricity bill
Speaker 1: and my gas bill dropped. Just kidding, they didn't for me,
Speaker 1: probably not you either. And here we have all all
Speaker 1: items minus food. Interests is the core. So here we
Speaker 1: are at three point three percent, and really, to look
Speaker 1: at a long term chart, this is pretty important, right,
Speaker 1: The goal is to get inflation down. Here we were
Speaker 1: in April twenty twenty one at over eight percent, and
Speaker 1: we were trending down like this is pretty good. But
Speaker 1: you can see right here we've been completely stalled out.
Speaker 1: Now this is a problem because, as I said, all
Speaker 1: monetary policy, all this is based at your investment policy,
Speaker 1: all that is based off of this number. Okay, now
Speaker 1: where are we starting to see that this may even
Speaker 1: be a bigger problem. So looking at what the inflation
Speaker 1: number came in last month, that's what we call a
Speaker 1: lagging indicator. That's what already happened. But we want to
Speaker 1: know where is it going, and so we look for
Speaker 1: a couple of signs. One of those is the bond market. Now,
Speaker 1: the bond market's telling us something's going on, and we
Speaker 1: can see right now that bonds are moving higher. I'm
Speaker 1: going to break this down for you, but here we
Speaker 1: see that the bond market since September is just cranking higher. Now,
Speaker 1: this is a really big move and a short per time,
Speaker 1: which is why I like to show you the charts
Speaker 1: so you can start to sort of see this. So
Speaker 1: since September, we've gone from three point six percent on
Speaker 1: the ten year US Treasury up to four and a
Speaker 1: half percent, from three point six to four and a half,
Speaker 1: almost an entire point move in just about two months,
Speaker 1: which is a massive move. Now, why is that happening? Well,
Speaker 1: I saw this. This is sort of what sparked the
Speaker 1: inspiration for this video. This came out on Twitter. Was
Speaker 1: it today or yesterday? Here? And this says that the
Speaker 1: fed's goules be the FED has to figure out why
Speaker 1: the ten year is rising, and they need to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on the long term rate. So the FED
Speaker 1: has to figure out why why are bond yields rising? Well,
Speaker 1: what a crazy question to ask. Let me break it
Speaker 1: down for you. Now, as a matter of fact, it's
Speaker 1: not just me that has this secret inside information. This
Speaker 1: is like from investor Pedia right here. Yields and prices.
Speaker 1: So here's how this works, what they are and how
Speaker 1: they work. So every finance major can tell you about
Speaker 1: the seesaw effect of prices and yields except for the Fed.
Speaker 1: They don't know why they're going up. But apparently every
Speaker 1: finance major can tell you this economic indicators and they
Speaker 1: move in opposite direction. So price and yield go like this,
Speaker 1: all right, So when prices go up, yields come down,
Speaker 1: and this suggests that investors believe inflation will move lower.
Speaker 1: So when yields go down, they think that inflation will
Speaker 1: go lower. But I just showed you that rates are
Speaker 1: going up, not down, and they're going up in a
Speaker 1: really rapid rate. So what does that mean When prices fall,
Speaker 1: yields move higher, they and then investors believe higher inflation.
Speaker 1: So we don't have to tell the Fed. They're trying
Speaker 1: to figure out why. Well, supposedly every finance major already
Speaker 1: knows this, and now you know that too, and so
Speaker 1: what this is telling us is that major inflation is coming. Why. Well,
Speaker 1: we're going to get into that in a minute. Here's
Speaker 1: one of my favorite macro analysts, Louke Gramman. You've seen
Speaker 1: him channel. We do interviews together. My references work quite
Speaker 1: a bit. The ten year US treasury yield, which I
Speaker 1: just showed you, is rising because the FED messed up
Speaker 1: by trying to be tough guys on inflation, like Vulker
Speaker 1: when the US government had the debt GDP of Argentina.
Speaker 1: So what he's saying is that the FED messed up
Speaker 1: when they tried to tighten inflation, but they didn't do enough.
Speaker 1: The ten year yield is saying there's either going to
Speaker 1: be too much net US Treasury supply or there's going
Speaker 1: to be high inflation. All right, So this is what
Speaker 1: it's telling us. There's going to be high inflation, and
Speaker 1: that's because of the supply that's coming. All right. So
Speaker 1: now that we sort of understand that, we have to
Speaker 1: understand that. Now when you look at it under that light,
Speaker 1: and then you look at the fact that Jerome Powell
Speaker 1: still wants to continue lowering raids, we might have a problem.
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, this might be feeding the flames,
Speaker 1: This might be pouring gasoline on the fire. And so
Speaker 1: the Fed wants to still cut rates. Now we can
Speaker 1: see this right here. Powell says the Fed will likely
Speaker 1: cut rates cautiously given persistent inflation. So even though we
Speaker 1: have inflation that's not going away, even though we're not
Speaker 1: even going anywhere in the right direction to the gold
Speaker 1: that the Fed wants to be in, he still wants
Speaker 1: to cut rates, which will push rates higher, which is
Speaker 1: exactly why the bond yields are screaming this. And we
Speaker 1: have other assets. We'll pull up some indicators in a second,
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Speaker 1: that's Justworks dot com slash podcast. Now you see me
Speaker 1: use this tool quite a bit to ceme fed watch
Speaker 1: right here, and this basically predicts what they think the
Speaker 1: FED will do at the next meeting. And what we
Speaker 1: can see, there's a sixty percent chance right here, sixty
Speaker 1: percent chance of the FED raising rates at the next meeting.
Speaker 1: So that means most likely this is going to happen,
Speaker 1: all right, So we have this situation where everyone's telling us.
Speaker 1: All the signs are telling us that inflation is coming.
Speaker 1: The FED is basically telling us more cuts are coming,
Speaker 1: the CNEME, FED watch tools telling us more rates are coming.
Speaker 1: And the FED is kind of stuck. I've been talking
Speaker 1: about this now for years. They're stuck if they don't
Speaker 1: lower rates, and even if it were to raise rates,
Speaker 1: then this is a recession on the economy. Now I
Speaker 1: didn't get into this data because it would be too
Speaker 1: long on the video, but we're starting to see that,
Speaker 1: like all the job numbers, the unemployment numbers, they're all
Speaker 1: being revised and it's looking like the economy is stalling
Speaker 1: out pretty bad. If you let me do a video
Speaker 1: on that, let me know in the comments, we can
Speaker 1: break all that down. So we're already teetering on the
Speaker 1: edge of our session. Remember, the Fed's trying to stick
Speaker 1: this soft landing, and so if they raise rates that's guaranteed.
Speaker 1: But if they lower rates, that means more inflation. So
Speaker 1: which do they choose? Well, I believe that they're going
Speaker 1: to choose inflation. There's no way around it. Inflation is coming,
Speaker 1: and this is the gas So besides what the FED
Speaker 1: is going to do, we have even more gas coming.
Speaker 1: So what do we have. We have a potentially really
Speaker 1: strong economy coming. I believe there's a strong economy coming.
Speaker 1: I'm extremely optimistic about this. The new administration coming in
Speaker 1: with the dream Team. We have the new Dodge Office right,
Speaker 1: the Department of Government Efficiency with Elon Musk and Vivic.
Speaker 1: We have all kinds of new policies coming into place,
Speaker 1: and I believe these things could unleash the American economy.
Speaker 1: We have a plan to make the government efficient, we
Speaker 1: have a plan to repeal regulations. We have government to
Speaker 1: unleash the energy in the economy. And I believe this
Speaker 1: could really ignite the economy. I can already see it
Speaker 1: in a week or two just from people that I've
Speaker 1: been talking to. The economy seems to be moving. The
Speaker 1: thing is when the economy gets booming, which is great
Speaker 1: for us, that means that we're making more money and
Speaker 1: we're spending more money, which means more consumer spending, which
Speaker 1: means as we spend more and make more, that means yes,
Speaker 1: more inflation. All right, So we have to understand how
Speaker 1: this works. Now. We can see this already in some
Speaker 1: of the charts. So, for example, look what gold has
Speaker 1: been doing. Gold is telling us the same thing the
Speaker 1: bond market is telling us. From January of this year,
Speaker 1: gold is up as high as two point eight twenty
Speaker 1: eight hundred dollars right here, and it's down just a
Speaker 1: little bit. But of course assets go up and down.
Speaker 1: There's no straight line here, and so we've been anywhere
Speaker 1: from twenty five percent up to thirty eight percent return
Speaker 1: on the year. I mean, imagine gold doing thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent in a single year. It's obviously telling us something
Speaker 1: is going to happen. Now we can see that Experts
Speaker 1: are saying that in October gold searched past twenty seven
Speaker 1: hundred Like I said, about almost twenty eight hundred per ounce.
Speaker 1: Experts link this rally to inflation duh, right, to inflation concerns,
Speaker 1: aggressive central bank buying, and rising global tension. So I've
Speaker 1: talked about this all the time. The world's breaking apart,
Speaker 1: nations aren't trusting each other, central banks are buying it,
Speaker 1: but inflation concerns. The precious metals rise signals deeper worries
Speaker 1: about inflation, even after two years of FED rate hikes,
Speaker 1: and so gold is telling us that inflation is coming.
Speaker 1: We can see silver is telling us the exact same thing.
Speaker 1: Here we have Silver's is a little bit more volatile,
Speaker 1: so it's telling us even more. Since January of this year,
Speaker 1: we can see that silver is up fifty five has
Speaker 1: been up as high as fifty five percent. It's right
Speaker 1: now about thirty five percent up on the year at
Speaker 1: thirty US dollars per ounce. And then one of my
Speaker 1: favorite inflation indicators as well is bitcoin. It's shown us
Speaker 1: the same thing year to date, bitcoins up one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty percent. They're all telling us the exact same thing,
Speaker 1: and that is massive amounts of inflation coming. Okay, so
Speaker 1: is this all bad news or is there some good news? Like,
Speaker 1: what are we supposed to do about this? Well, let
Speaker 1: me tell you it's going to be bad for most
Speaker 1: people who aren't paying attention to this, but it can
Speaker 1: be good. We can use this to our advantage. Let
Speaker 1: me break that down. Before I break that down, I
Speaker 1: just want to tell you real quick about a sponsor
Speaker 1: for today's video, and that is US Gold Mining. Now
Speaker 1: they're listed on the Nasdaq with the ticker symbol USGO.
Speaker 1: And while gold is ripping it looks like the gold
Speaker 1: producers like USGO, they're about to finally start catching up. Now.
Speaker 1: US gold Mining owns a project that has estimated mineral
Speaker 1: resources of six point five million ounces of gold resources
Speaker 1: equivalent to the indicated category and an additional four point
Speaker 1: two million in the inferred category, and its marketcap is
Speaker 1: currently about one hundred and eight million USD, which means
Speaker 1: that US Gold Mining is trading at about forty percent
Speaker 1: below it's all time high. But with the economy moving higher,
Speaker 1: stopping and pushing inflation back higher again, gold is moving
Speaker 1: back up. Another big catalyst for USGO is also the
Speaker 1: greatest source of potential appreciation and shareholder value, and it
Speaker 1: comes from the new Trump administration and it's the attitude
Speaker 1: towards the beautiful state of Alaska, where USGO is now.
Speaker 1: Trump said that he would ensure Alaska received more money
Speaker 1: from defense investments. In addition, he said that there would
Speaker 1: be more mining. He said, quote during my second term,
Speaker 1: We're going to continue to fight for Alaska like never before.
Speaker 1: We'll ensure that the gas Line project gets built to
Speaker 1: provide affordable energy to Alaska and allies all over the world. Now,
Speaker 1: the CEO of us Gold Mining Tim Smith. He came
Speaker 1: from Neumont now Newmont if you've heard of it. It's
Speaker 1: one hundred year old gold producer, the largest gold mining
Speaker 1: company in the world. And before Neumont, he worked for
Speaker 1: Gold Corp, one of Canada's biggest gold producers. And before
Speaker 1: joining Gold Corp, he worked for Cabinet Gold Corporation. And
Speaker 1: while he was there he helped discover the coffee deposit
Speaker 1: in the Yukon. He advanced the resources until Gold Corp
Speaker 1: required it for about five hundred and twenty million Canadian
Speaker 1: It was one of the most legendary buyouts of the
Speaker 1: past decade. And so his experience advancing a project is
Speaker 1: what's critical here. Now, what have you been exposed to?
Speaker 1: These circumstances all coming together at the same time, the
Speaker 1: incoming administration is pro mining in Alaska like never before.
Speaker 1: US gold Mining owns a gold copper silver project where
Speaker 1: the prior owner had a market cap of about one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million at when gold prices were
Speaker 1: much lower, and with the same project right now, the
Speaker 1: same assets, USGO has a market cap of only one
Speaker 1: hundred and eight million now US gold Mining again Nasdaq.
Speaker 1: USGO is down by about forty percent from its all
Speaker 1: time high, So you might want to check it out,
Speaker 1: add it to your list of ones that you want
Speaker 1: to just take a look at. All. Right, now, what
Speaker 1: are we going to do about this? Like I said,
Speaker 1: for people that aren't paying attention, this could be really bad.
Speaker 1: Inflation steals you're purchasing power. But we can use it
Speaker 1: to our advantage. And I don't want to sound callous,
Speaker 1: but we have no other choice. Can't beat them, we
Speaker 1: have to join them. Okay, So what are we gonna do?
Speaker 1: Inflation is returning and it's going to continue through the
Speaker 1: rest of the decade. There's a lot of reasons. I've
Speaker 1: made a bunch of videos about this, but I believe
Speaker 1: it's returning. So I believe the FED is fueling this
Speaker 1: fire and will continue to do so. Yes, Unfortunately the
Speaker 1: new administration, they're not really going to help it. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to continue going on again. We can
Speaker 1: use this to our advantage. We can look at things
Speaker 1: in life as problems. We can look at them as
Speaker 1: solutions to the problems. Right, we can look at them.
Speaker 1: Things are happening to us or they happen for us. Again,
Speaker 1: not to be callous, for people that are not paying attention.
Speaker 1: But this is what it is. Now, how do we
Speaker 1: do that? One we can use long term debt. I
Speaker 1: talk about this in America we have the benefit of
Speaker 1: having like thirty or mortgage was amazing, But all over
Speaker 1: the world we have the ability to borrow at low
Speaker 1: rates and lock in long term debt. So that's one
Speaker 1: way we can add catalyst to that, because then the
Speaker 1: inflation destroys that debt, which is why the government wants
Speaker 1: the inflation. Also, we can be hedged with assets, so
Speaker 1: assets that are soive to inflation gold, bitcoin, silver, I
Speaker 1: just showed you three of those. Real estate is also
Speaker 1: another one. So we want to buy assets, scarce assets,
Speaker 1: energy intensive assets that are going to go up with inflation.
Speaker 1: We don't want to be holding cash. And then if
Speaker 1: you want to know even more assets you should buy.
Speaker 1: Then the next place i'd look is what I call
Speaker 1: the investing black hole. And if you want to know
Speaker 1: what the investing black hole is, then you might want
Speaker 1: to watch this video right here. All right, that's what
Speaker 1: I got. I hope you like the video. To your success,
Speaker 1: I'm out