1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 3 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 4 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 2: anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, 5 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,119 Speaker 2: a look ahead to some key housing data, plus a 6 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 2: look ahead to corporate earnings from evmaker Rivian. 7 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 3: I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm Stephen and Carol 8 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 3: in London. Borg counting down to a crucial election in 9 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 3: Europe's biggest economy, Germany. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 4: I'm Doug Chrisner looking at upcoming earnings from China's Ali Baba, 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 4: along with upcoming eco data out of South Korea. 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: eleven to three, Yeero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB, Digital Radio, London, 15 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 17 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 2: Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, and we begin 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: today's program with some key housing data out this week. 19 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: January housing starts on Wednesday. Existing home sales for that 20 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 2: same month on Friday Now for more on what do 21 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 2: you expect and look at the housing sector right now, 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: we're joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence, US home building analyst. Well, Drew, 23 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 2: last month brought brutally cold temperatures across much of the US, 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 2: those devastating wildfires in Los Angeles. Is there any good news, 25 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 2: any green shoots we can look for in new home 26 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: construction and existing home sales for January? 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 5: Well, thanks for having me. It's a great question. There 28 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 5: have been a lot of different forces at play. I 29 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 5: think the market's looking for something about down seven percent 30 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 5: for housing starts this month, and we think that that 31 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 5: starts going to remain valuable for the next couple of months. 32 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 5: And the reason is that the large public builders are 33 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 5: matching production levels with demand. Given what's happened with rates, 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 5: the expectation for volume growth just not as strong as 35 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 5: it was a couple of months ago. And you know, 36 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 5: when we looked at demand in January, it's actually weaker 37 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 5: than the typical seasonal pattern you would see. So you know, 38 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 5: we're seeing builders be a bit more cautious on a 39 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 5: relative basis. We still think that the large public builders 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 5: will see stronger growth compared to their smaller peers who 41 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 5: continue to struggle with, you know, the availability and cost 42 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 5: of growth capital. Because you have to remember a lot 43 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 5: of time this group is looking to regional local banks 44 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 5: for financing. In an environment where there's a lot more uncertainty, 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,119 Speaker 5: it's certainly tougher to get access to that. In terms 46 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 5: of existing home sales, we think we're going to continue 47 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 5: to see sales be pressured in the near term. You know, again, 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 5: we've had rates back up where I think seven point 49 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 5: one point five percent now, prices continue to rise across 50 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 5: much of the country, and you know, there's just not 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 5: a lot of urgency right now. 52 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 2: And are these builders you're talking about also having problems 53 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 2: or or fear of problems getting enough workers. I mean, 54 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: I know skilled labor is hard to get, but any 55 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: workers with the threat that's coming out of the White 56 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 2: House and deportations. Also land, you know available land. Is 57 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 2: are they not building spec houses? Is that sort of 58 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 2: what you mean by you know, you know, just building 59 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 2: on demand. 60 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 5: Well, that's a great question on the labor front, because 61 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 5: the inability of builders to get access to the trades 62 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 5: has been an issue for much the last cycle. Now 63 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 5: over the last several quarters, we've seen that improve. You know, 64 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 5: part of the reason is because the last couple of 65 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,959 Speaker 5: years we've had the largest influx of immigration on record, 66 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 5: we've also had slowing demand, so the trades have kind 67 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 5: of been able to catch up with production. But you know, 68 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 5: in terms of immigration policy, it's certainly a real threat 69 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 5: to the construction industry. You know, of course, we still 70 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 5: don't know exactly how this is going to play out, 71 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 5: but it's not a secret that farm bar and workers 72 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 5: representing a significant portion of the US construction industry. I 73 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 5: think that the NHB estimates that it's about thirty three 74 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 5: percent of the trades, but as you would expect that 75 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 5: very significantly by market. So if you look at somewhere California, Texas, Nevada, 76 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 5: and Florida, you're talking about closer to fifty percent of 77 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 5: the workers being farm born, and there's some estimates out 78 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 5: there that you know, about one and ten are undocumented. 79 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 5: So wow. You know, like I said, it remains the 80 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 5: spe seen how this play out, but we certainly think that, 81 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 5: you know, builders could have an issue getting products built, 82 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 5: and certainly we would expect to see COSS rise in 83 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 5: the event of some type of you know, large scale 84 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 5: deportation program. 85 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: Wow, a lot of a lot of uncertainty. Well, right now, 86 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 2: it's the middle of February, just ahead of the busy 87 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 2: spring housing season. And speaking of uncertainty, you mentioned home 88 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,119 Speaker 2: prices at or near all time highs mortgage rates around 89 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 2: seven percent, uh, the President's agenda. Where does the whole 90 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: industry stand right now? The home builders and new home construction. 91 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 5: Wells, we're still definitely dealing with the soft market. As 92 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 5: you mentioned, affordability is near historically low levels, so we're 93 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 5: seeing that that impacted demand side. We looked at some 94 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 5: of the latest data for Redfin on the pending home 95 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 5: sale side, and it's showing that from last month we're 96 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 5: down about four percent, we're down about six percent from 97 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,119 Speaker 5: last year, and on an absolute basis pending sales, which 98 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 5: are kind of a more current reflection of the demand 99 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 5: environment because they're contract signings, we're at the lowest level 100 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 5: on record. The data is also showing that we're starting 101 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 5: to see more deals start to fall through, whether that's 102 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 5: due to qualification issues or buyers getting cold feet, you know. 103 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 5: Broadly speaking, we think, you know, on the existing home side, 104 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 5: we're probably hovering around trough levels. The question is when 105 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 5: does that start to turn. You know, we think we 106 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 5: can finish the year in positive territory, but you have 107 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 5: to remember that we're coming off the lowest level of 108 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 5: volumes in multiple decades, so certainly still a challenging market, 109 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 5: and we're seeing that in both the resale side and 110 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 5: the new home sales side. 111 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and another troubling stat you mentioned redfin They say 112 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,799 Speaker 2: more homes are now getting listed, many for the first time, 113 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 2: but they're staying unsold for the longest stretch in five years. Again, 114 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 2: the unaffordability of so many of these homes and a 115 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: seven percent interest rate's like a one two punch. That's 116 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 2: not helping at all. 117 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,119 Speaker 5: Yeah. I think the average time on market is getting 118 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 5: close to two months, So, you know, the inventory dynamic 119 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 5: has been something that has really supported the builders over 120 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 5: the last couple of years. You've had a lack of 121 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 5: for sale inventory in the resale market, which funneled demand 122 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 5: towards the builders, who are then able to offer incentives 123 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 5: and rate buydowns to make the payments look better. But 124 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 5: now we're in a situation where that competitive environment is 125 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 5: really starting to change with active listings across many of 126 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 5: the key markets now well above twenty nineteen levels, and 127 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 5: you know the ones that come to mind are in 128 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 5: Florida and Texas. So builders are now having to face 129 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 5: competition that they really haven't had the last couple of years, 130 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 5: and we think that could put some pressure not only 131 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:52,600 Speaker 5: on volumes but also on pricing. 132 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 6: Well. 133 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 2: January housing starts out on Wednesday. Existing home sales for 134 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: January out on Friday. Our thanks to Drew Reda, Bloomberg 135 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: Intelligence US home Building analyst. We move now to earnings 136 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: from high end EV maker Rivian, which reports its fourth 137 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 2: quarter results this Thursday, as it readies big plans for 138 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 2: the future. For more and what to expect, and a 139 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 2: look at the broader ev auto sector. We're joined by 140 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: Steve Mann, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials Research Analysts. Steve, 141 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. Thanks Well, let's 142 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 2: begin with what you expect to see in this earnings report. 143 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 2: What were sales like for Rivian? How did it do 144 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 2: against Tesla, Lucid, GM, and Ford. 145 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 7: Well, Rivian actually had better than expected sales in the 146 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 7: fourth quarter, so we do expect the company to actually 147 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 7: report positive gross margin in their auto business, and that's 148 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 7: something they've promised for the last three quarters and I 149 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 7: think they will be able to achieve that. They've done 150 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 7: a lot of changes internally in their factories and their 151 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 7: product to get there. So and lastly, hell on high water, 152 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 7: they have to hit gross profit because you remember they 153 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 7: do have a partnership, a joint venture with Volkswagen, and 154 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 7: for the next billion dollars that they're going to get 155 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 7: from Volkswagen, they have to hit that gross profit target. 156 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 2: Now that is a big boost anyone would take the 157 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: billion dollars from the world's second largest automaker. But it's 158 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 2: also facing a lot of uncertainties, or at least the 159 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: EV industry in the US with Donald Trump back in 160 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: the White House. Yeah, not only the tariffs, but you know, 161 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 2: he revoked the EV mandate of fifty percent cars sold 162 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 2: by twenty thirty all evs, the federal tax credit up 163 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: in the air emission standards I mean, is rivian, and 164 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 2: the whole industry really facing more challenges than ever before. 165 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 7: I think there's a lot of noise out there. I 166 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 7: think there's going to be ups and downs in any 167 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 7: any market, especially you know, auto market is not immune 168 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 7: to that. I think, you know, there's a lot of 169 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 7: risk in terms of concerns about auto sales if the 170 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 7: seventy five hundred tax credit goes away. There's also tariffs, 171 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 7: you know, the ux Mexico Canada tarriffs may make may 172 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 7: come on online, the twenty five percent tariff, and that 173 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 7: could impact the auto industry. I mean, I think the 174 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 7: tariffs on the supply chain won't impact Revian that much. 175 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 7: They've have been vertically integrating their process and some of 176 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 7: the changes that made that they made in the middle 177 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 7: of twenty twenty four really brings all out of production 178 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 7: in house, so they may not get hit that much 179 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 7: on tariff's. But the seventy five hundred elimination of the 180 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 7: semi five hundred tax credit will probably temporary subdue h 181 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 7: EV sales. You know, it does make EV's a little 182 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 7: bit more expensive for the consumer, But look, Rivinan is 183 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 7: going to launch a cheaper model later this year, uh 184 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 7: and then a new and even cheaper model into in 185 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 7: twenty twenty six that will expand their their their market 186 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 7: and hopefully make their vehicles even more affordable for the 187 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 7: average consumer. 188 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 2: Well, speaking of expanding, I mean, Rivian is thinking big, 189 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,160 Speaker 2: not only these new models, not only the partnership with 190 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 2: with Volkswagen, but in the last remaining days of the 191 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: Biden administration, it secured a six point six billion dollar 192 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 2: loan resuming work on a new assembly plant outside of Atlanta. 193 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 2: I mean that's big. Thinking that is huge. 194 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 7: I think it's really positive for for Rivian because you know, 195 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 7: Rivian still not positive on the bottom line, so they 196 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 7: you know, and they have negative cash flow. So to 197 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 7: have that backstop, you know, for their new plant that 198 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 7: it will be it's really positive. But look, I think 199 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 7: it'll be a miss if Rivian decides to go ahead 200 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,959 Speaker 7: with the construction of that Georgia plant now, I think 201 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 7: they're going to have to wait. They should wait. They 202 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 7: have the R two smaller suv coming up cheaper, and 203 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 7: then the R three and twenty twenty six. I think 204 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 7: they should wait until gauge the customer demand for those 205 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 7: two vehicles before they go ahead and starting building a 206 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 7: new plant. I think, you know, if they do spend 207 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 7: that capex now, it's going to be a higher cost 208 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 7: for the automaker, at least on a per unit basis, 209 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 7: and they don't need that right now. So it's great 210 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 7: that they have the money, but I think it'll be uh, 211 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 7: you know, I don't think the investors will look at 212 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 7: this positively if they decide to build the plant. 213 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 2: Now I see now, up until now, it's bread and 214 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 2: butter from what I see, has been this deal to 215 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 2: supply delivery trucks to Amazon. I mean tens of thousand 216 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 2: that I see them everywhere here in New York. Now 217 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 2: that deal has expired. So what does that mean for Rivian? 218 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 7: Oh, it's really positive. It's it's a small business for 219 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 7: them right now. It's it's kind of you know, the 220 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 7: the impact to the bottom line it's immaterial, but the upside, 221 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 7: you know, it's he's huge because you know what really 222 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:24,239 Speaker 7: makes sense for evs is these short hauled delivery trucks, 223 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 7: right and you know they have to you know, they're 224 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 7: selling to Amazon. But you know we've also heard that 225 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 7: there they've been talking to AT and T, and AT 226 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 7: and T are currently testing vehicles, their service vehicles from Rivian. 227 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 7: So it opens up a door for a bigger market 228 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 7: for for Rivian's technology. 229 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 6: Well, that's great. 230 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 2: Rivian Q four earnings out this Thursday, and our thanks 231 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 2: to Steve Mann Bloomberg Intelligence, Global Autos and industrials research 232 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 2: analyst coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look 233 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 2: ahead to the upcoming German elections. I'm Tom Busby and 234 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 2: this is Blue. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our 235 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 236 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up 237 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 2: later in our program, we look ahead to earnings from 238 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 2: China's biggest player in e commerce, but first German said 239 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 2: to the polls this week, with issues like economic growth, 240 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 2: domestic security, irregular migration, all on the ballot. Now for more, 241 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg day Break 242 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: Europe banker Stephen Carroll. 243 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 3: Tom According to the latest polling, the conservative Friedrich Martz 244 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 3: of the Christian Democratic Union is the front runner to 245 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 3: emerge as the next leader of Germany. Time is fast 246 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 3: running out for the incumbent Olaf Schultz and his Social 247 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 3: Democrat party to close the gap between them and their opponents, 248 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 3: currently about fourteen percentage points wide according to an average 249 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 3: of recent polls. Maybe some indication or consensus about the 250 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 3: expected results, the path to stability in Germany remains uncertain. 251 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: The recent bad blood between the mainstream parties, which was 252 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 3: on show during a televised debate during this campaign, has 253 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 3: sparked concern that it might prove more difficult to negotiate 254 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: a coalition agreement after the election, a process that can 255 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 3: take several months. Navigating the uncertainty as an investor in 256 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 3: Europe's largest economy is something that I've been discussing with 257 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 3: Eliz Badoi, whose City Group's Global markets managing director and 258 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 3: head of EMEA Research, who does see a potential upside 259 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 3: to the results if all goes to plan German elections. 260 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 8: On balance, there hasn't been as much focused globally on them, 261 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 8: but obviously there are a positive catalyst for the first time. 262 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 8: We could hear about the regulation, we could hear about 263 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 8: boosting spending defense, depending on the outcome and the various 264 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 8: coalition we might get. Now, of course there's always a 265 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 8: risky selections that we get an extreme party blocking some 266 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 8: of that, but I think on balance we think seventy 267 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 8: five percent of the potential outcomes of market friendly. 268 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 4: So that's one thing that with City. 269 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 3: Groups, Ali's Badoye. They are speaking to myself and Valerie Titel. 270 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 3: So what's in store for Germany over the final week 271 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 3: of campaigning. I've been discussing this with our Germany correspondent 272 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 3: to Oliver Krook. 273 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 9: Yeah, listen, I think what is sort of most remarkable, 274 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 9: the most remarkable future of this election campaign is that 275 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 9: basically the polls have not moved a whole lot, no 276 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 9: matter basically what has happened since the sort of snap 277 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 9: election was called. It teams that basically everything is kept steady. 278 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 9: And that's really in very sharp contrast to what we 279 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 9: saw during the last federal election in twenty twenty one, 280 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 9: where basically the CDU had been leading by like twenty 281 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 9: three points, gave up that full lead and then was 282 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 9: not in the government at all. So what we're seeing 283 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 9: now is the CDU basically holding up at about thirty percent. 284 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 9: Remember this is Angela Merkel's traditional party now headed by 285 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 9: Frederick Mertz, with the AfD the Alternative for Deutschland, the 286 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 9: far right party that wants to leave the Eurozone, very 287 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 9: hard on immigration, they're twenty percent, and then ESPD, you know, 288 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 9: the Chancellor's current party, the current Translort party, holding in 289 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 9: about fifteen sixteen percent, and the Greens right after that. 290 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 9: I mean, what I think is very sort of interesting though, 291 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 9: is perhaps a different feature from this election from the others, 292 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 9: is that all the people that you sort of speak to, 293 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 9: many of the people that I speak to, when I 294 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 9: ask them who they're voting for, most of them, I 295 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 9: will have to say, will say they don't know who 296 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 9: they're going to vote for. So basically they're considering are 297 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 9: they going to vote with their conscience? Are they going 298 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 9: to vote more tactically. This is going to be a 299 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 9: sort of big question, and it's hard for me to say, 300 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 9: because the polling is one thing. What people will actually 301 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 9: do on the day of the election that could cause 302 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 9: a real sort of discrepancy to what we've generally seen 303 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 9: in German elections where the polling has been fairly accurate. 304 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 3: What have been the key moments of the campaign so far? 305 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think that the sort of first 306 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 9: key feature of this election campaign is just the presence 307 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 9: of the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland, as the sort 308 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 9: of far right wing party, as a serious political presence. 309 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 9: They hold, you know, basically a fifth of the vote 310 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 9: in this election that has not happened since basically post 311 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 9: war Germany, and they are in many ways setting the 312 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 9: tone for a lot of the debate, certainly on immigration 313 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 9: and some other economic policies as well. I mean, I 314 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 9: think another sort of of the sort of key moments 315 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 9: was basically the equestins around whether or not olaft Guilt 316 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 9: would be the candidate for the SPD going into this election. 317 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 9: He obviously was very damaged by basically his last term 318 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 9: that was cut forward because this basically coalition couldn't get along, 319 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 9: They couldn't figure out how to solve a lot of problems, 320 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 9: and it eventually brought the government down, calling for an 321 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 9: early election. And I think that the sort of final 322 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 9: point that I think has really been significant here is 323 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 9: basically the CDU and Frederick Mertz, the sort of center 324 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 9: right party, voting for the very first time on this 325 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 9: immigration bill in the same direction as the AfD, the 326 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 9: alternative for Deutschel on that has never happened basically in 327 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 9: post war Europe where you have a mainstream party voting 328 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 9: with the AfD. He has said that this is not 329 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 9: really amount to working with them. He has ruled out 330 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 9: working in coalition with them. But for much of the 331 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 9: political system here within Germany was seen as sort of 332 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 9: breaking the far right firewall and really sort of sundering 333 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 9: that that taboo, and for many people that made you 334 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 9: know him potentially untorre strustworthy and ineligible to be the candidate. 335 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 9: Others say that, you know, he's just being practical and 336 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 9: he's dealing with an intensely fragmented political landscape here in Germany. 337 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 3: This concept of the firewall is really central to the 338 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 3: political conversations happening in Germany. And as you say that 339 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 3: moment with the CDU putting forward this motion the Bundestag 340 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:27,479 Speaker 3: that you know, although condemning the AfD in the motion itself, 341 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 3: did ultimately end up using some of their votes. How 342 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 3: thinking about what happens post the election, how intact is 343 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 3: that firewall now? Is there a chance that any of 344 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 3: these center parties could end up doing work with the AfD? 345 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 9: Listen, I think I don't think that there's going to 346 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 9: be anything that they're going to be able to do 347 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 9: in terms of formal coalitions. But again, I mean, Frederick 348 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 9: Mertz was testing the water and at the end of 349 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 9: the day, what he is dealing with is a real 350 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 9: political problem within Germany, which is the fact that you 351 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 9: basically have this massive fragmentation, you have basically, you know, 352 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 9: As you get closer to the election, you know more 353 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 9: and more of this vote being sort of spread across 354 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 9: several different parties who have very very different, sort of 355 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 9: out of different sort of views of the world and 356 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 9: how to deal with problems within Germany. And the reality 357 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 9: situation is they're very unwilling to compromise it. 358 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 10: And this is the issue. 359 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 9: So you have the CDU basically won't compromise on the 360 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 9: debt break, the SPD, won't cut social benefits, the Greens 361 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 9: shut down nuclear power in the middle of an energy crisis. 362 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 9: This is not a sort of situation in which the 363 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 9: mainstream parties are able seemingly to get along and make 364 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 9: some sort of sacrifices in order to get things done 365 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 9: in Germany. And that is exactly the fact that the 366 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 9: AfD is exploiting, saying basically, the mainstream parties have failed you. 367 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: Let's think about what happens on Sunday, the twenty third 368 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 3: of February, when we will get polling day, but also 369 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 3: when we will get the results of this election. Talk 370 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 3: us through what happens when the results start to come 371 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: in at polls close at six pm local time, will 372 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 3: get exits polls almost immediately on that what happens next? 373 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, so that's what happens basically six pm. 374 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 9: You get these exit polls, You get sort of sentiment 375 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 9: from people being pulled, that walked outside of the polling station, 376 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 9: from the TV stations. That tends to give you a 377 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 9: pretty good steer on when things sort of how things 378 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 9: will pan out, and basically within the hour you have 379 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 9: a pretty good idea of what the outcome of the 380 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 9: election is going to be. So the main thing to 381 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 9: look forward here too is if you actually don't get 382 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 9: a huge sort of move in, what the sort of 383 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 9: pulling for the main parties are Actually what's going to 384 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 9: be most important are the parties that got the least 385 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 9: number of votes, Because for every party that gets under 386 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 9: five percent of the vote, they basically get knocked out 387 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 9: of the Bundestag, and that basically rewrites the whole arithmetic 388 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 9: of what more than half of the parliament will look like. 389 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 9: So let's say three parties get knocked out, then suddenly 390 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 9: that's twelve percent of the vote that's no longer part 391 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 9: of the party. That means that potentially you could get 392 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 9: a coalition with two parties where previously you will have 393 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 9: needed three. So this is going to be some of 394 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 9: the sort of nitty gritty that we get into on 395 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 9: the election night and really talk about and looking at 396 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 9: basically what this next government's going to look forward. But 397 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 9: I also think that there's going to be sort of 398 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 9: this dawning reality that a certain point that these mainstream 399 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 9: parties within Germany will have to learn to commise otherwise 400 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 9: the next election is going to be a very different one. 401 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 9: And I think that there are some ways in which 402 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 9: the AfD has grasped in ways that many other parties 403 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 9: in Germany have not grasped, the sort of new politics 404 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 9: of twenty twenty. 405 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:19,120 Speaker 3: Five in that complicated negotiation that will happen after the election. 406 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 3: Germany is used to having coalitions in government. It's also 407 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 3: had a coalition of those two traditional centrist parties, the 408 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 3: SPD and the CDUCSU as well in the past. Who 409 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 3: are the other candidates that could be in focus form 410 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 3: of thinking about potential coalition building? What are the parties 411 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 3: should we be watching? 412 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, so listen. 413 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 9: I think it's interesting that there's basically only been one 414 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 9: absolute majority in Germany since the end of the Second 415 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 9: World War. I mean, this is basically a nation that 416 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 9: really is built on building coalitions. I think that the 417 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 9: other parties that you're going to have to pay attention 418 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 9: to are the Greens. They're the ones who are likely 419 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 9: to come into to the sort of fourth place potentially, 420 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 9: So there could be a scenario in which the CDU 421 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 9: actually would prefer to work with the Greens over the SPD, 422 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 9: though they may be slightly farther on some issues. There's 423 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 9: a lot of bad blood right now between the SPD 424 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 9: and the CDU, so that is going to be absolutely key. 425 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 9: I mean, there's the FDP, the Liberals, who are basically 426 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,439 Speaker 9: natural sort of mates for the CDU and the center right. 427 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 9: You know, they're sort of into sort of fiscal disciplines, deregulation, 428 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 9: a little bit more progressive socially, but they're not really 429 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 9: going to be They're gonna be potentially a marginal player. 430 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 9: They could maybe be a third party within that. But 431 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 9: I think the big concern here, Steven is that basically 432 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 9: you get a situation in Germany where you don't have 433 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 9: a decisive outcome and you just have general European limping 434 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 9: in terms of political progress economic progress at a time 435 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 9: when the United States is really sprinting ahead and basically 436 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 9: leaving everyone behind and saying basically, you need to sort 437 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 9: of walk to the beat of our drum, and really 438 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 9: what you need are stronger European nations, particularly when you 439 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 9: need to sort of bring the European project closer together 440 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 9: in order to compete with the likes of Donald Trump 441 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 9: and of course China. 442 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 3: Yeah, because of course whoever is chancellor in Germany will 443 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 3: also play a key part in the decision making process 444 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 3: that happens in Brussels as well. A word on the 445 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 3: economy and all of this, Oliver, you know, two years 446 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 3: of negative growth in Germany. How central has that issue 447 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 3: been to the campaign? 448 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 9: Listen, I think it's basically the fundamental issue. I don't 449 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,160 Speaker 9: know that it's the one that's grabbing the most headlines. 450 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 9: But again we're just to put into context what we're 451 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 9: talking about here in Germany. It's a statistic that I 452 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 9: think bears mentioning and repeating and repeating. We are looking 453 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 9: potentially here, particularly with if we get tariffs on German 454 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 9: industry from the Trump administration, that would almost guarantee another 455 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 9: year of contraction in twenty twenty five. That would mean 456 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,920 Speaker 9: three years of consecutive contraction. That has not happened since 457 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 9: the Berlin wallfell in nineteen eighty nine. This is a 458 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 9: very difficult period for the German economy and that is 459 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 9: what's behind so much of what is going on here. 460 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 9: And I think that it is partially also why there 461 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 9: is so much vulnerability within the German society, why there's 462 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 9: so much vulnerability of feeling around that, and of course 463 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 9: often the impulse towards that is to be very concerned 464 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 9: with how much money you're spending, yes, but also on 465 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 9: immigration and partially what is driving the conversation around that. 466 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 9: And I think that that is basically and there's no 467 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 9: way of ignoring that in a Nathan that has been very, 468 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 9: very wealthy for a very very long period of time 469 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 9: and whose economic model is now basically failing and is 470 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 9: only going to catch increasing headwinds. The question is going 471 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 9: to be in this election it do sort of people realize, 472 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 9: do the politicians realize the scale of what's going on, 473 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 9: and are they willing to take very sort of potentially 474 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 9: deep cuts to the welfare state, potentially look at taking 475 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 9: debt and breaking the debt break and looking to basically 476 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 9: boost the economy in that way, And that honestly I 477 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 9: don't know the answer to that question. It may not 478 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 9: be bad enough quite yet for the Germans to take 479 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 9: those steps that many think are absolutely necessary in order 480 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,159 Speaker 9: for Germany to stay relevant into the twenty per century. 481 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 3: My thanks to Bloomberg's Oliver Crook speaking to us from Munich. 482 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 3: Well have full coverage of the upcoming German elections on 483 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio. I'm Stephen Carolyn London. You can catch us 484 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,200 Speaker 3: every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak here at beginning 485 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 3: out six am in London and one am on Wall 486 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 3: Stras Tom, thank you, Steven. 487 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 2: And coming up on Bloomberg day Break Weekend, we look 488 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,959 Speaker 2: ahead to earnings from an e commerce giant. I'm Tom Busby, 489 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, 490 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: our global look ahead at the top stories for investors 491 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 2: in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 492 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 2: Earnings out this week from China's biggest player in e commerce, 493 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 2: Ali Baba. Let's get to Daybreak Asia podcast host Doug 494 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 2: Krisner for a preview. 495 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 4: To Ali Baba. Stock has been on a tear lately, 496 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 4: so farthes here. Baba's Hong Kong listed shares are up 497 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 4: more than forty percent. So what's driving this price action? 498 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 4: Let's find out. I'm joined by Bloomberg's Katherine Lim. She 499 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 4: is a senior consumer and Technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, 500 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 4: joining us from Singapore. Catherine, thank you so much for 501 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 4: making time to chat with us. Let's talk first about 502 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 4: the macro story in China, because I know that Ali 503 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 4: Baba derives so much of its business from the domestic 504 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 4: consumer in China. What's happening right now. 505 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 6: With the Chinese right, you know, on the Chinese consumption side, 506 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 6: as we step out of the Lunar New Year holidays, 507 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 6: which likely stimulated retail sales in January because of the 508 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 6: big festival itself. I do think that with the recent 509 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 6: consumption stimulus that Beijing has been putting in taking a 510 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 6: step back with seeing them offering literally cash handouts, you know, 511 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 6: shopping vouchers to the consumers ahead of the Lunar New 512 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 6: Yr holidays. We're gonna need to see whether that is 513 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 6: going to hold up after the holidays itself, and how 514 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 6: much of these hooks are we still gonna get from 515 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,159 Speaker 6: the central government through the rest of the year. But 516 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,679 Speaker 6: I think we should be you know, on a trajectory 517 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 6: whereby consumption sentiment in general have stabilized. Doug, you've actually mentioned, 518 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,239 Speaker 6: you know, the markets in general, equity markets, they are up. 519 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 6: In general, sentiment has recovered from the rock bottom that 520 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 6: we've seen last year. So I would say that things 521 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 6: should stabilize this year from a buying sentiment perspective. 522 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 4: So that's on the business to consumer side. What is 523 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,359 Speaker 4: happening on the B to B side in China? Is 524 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 4: Ali Baba doing a lot of business on that front? 525 00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 6: Oh yes, absolutely. You know, there b to be a platform, 526 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 6: whether it's one six eight eight dot com as it 527 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 6: is known or Alibaba dot Com that targets more of 528 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 6: the businesses overseas. You know, they have and continue to 529 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 6: be the gateway for businesses into the factories within China. 530 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 6: So you know, the transactions are actually still ongoing now. 531 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 6: Of course, you know, with the rumblings that we have 532 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,360 Speaker 6: seen in the recent you know, two weeks with regards 533 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 6: to tariff on made in China, you know goods itself. 534 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 6: What I would say is that this is not totally unexpected. 535 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 6: There will be neartom disruptions to logistics, to supply chain, 536 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 6: but there are solutions being put in place by platforms 537 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 6: like ali Baba, as well as businesses itself to try 538 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 6: to mitigate and operate in this new environment. 539 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 4: I'm so glad you brought up the idea of tariffs 540 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 4: here because I'm also curious about Alibaba's overseas e commerce business, 541 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 4: particularly in the United States. What do we know about 542 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 4: what's happening. 543 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 6: Right you know, they have light PDDs to move been 544 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 6: looking to diversified outside of China into new markets including US, 545 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 6: and US tends to be a attractive market for most 546 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 6: of the e commerce players for region that it is 547 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 6: a more homogeneous market and there is demand for a 548 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 6: variety of products out there, which again the Chinese e 549 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 6: commerce platforms they do have an advantage because they are 550 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 6: so much closer to factories and the source of these goods. 551 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 6: So they have also been selling more into US, but 552 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 6: on a less aggressive basis, if I can put it 553 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 6: this way. 554 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,400 Speaker 4: Now, the day goes by when we're not discussing artificial intelligence, 555 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,960 Speaker 4: and I know that Ali Baba has a big business 556 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 4: in terms of cloud computing. How well is that performing 557 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 4: right now? 558 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 6: Well, do you know what cloud computing? The revenue, the 559 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 6: profitability of this business for Ali Baba, it's actually been 560 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 6: on the up trend for the last two quarters or 561 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 6: the first half of their physical year. So do you 562 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 6: know the company had expressed that they were fairly confident 563 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 6: in driving a double digit cloud revenue growth ahead, and 564 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 6: I do think that the latest development of you know, 565 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 6: as they tied up with Apple, hopefully we get confirmation 566 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 6: of that from the company themselves, definitely is icing on 567 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 6: the cake for this trajectory. Again, depending on how much 568 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 6: which they are sinking into R and D infrastructure. I 569 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 6: will not be surprised if we get you know, upfront 570 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 6: investment out lays over the next twelve months. But I 571 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 6: do think that this will and can potentially set a 572 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 6: very strong foundation for their growth ahead. 573 00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 4: The issue of cap X has been so important when 574 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 4: we're looking at what's happening in the AI industry in 575 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 4: the United States and whether or not we're going to 576 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 4: see at some point a meaningful return on investment. But 577 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 4: you mentioned Apple there working perhaps with Ali Baba to 578 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 4: roll out some AI features in China. Do we know 579 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 4: much about what's happening? I think this story was first 580 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 4: reported last week by the Information. 581 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 6: Yes, do you know what not at this juncture company 582 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 6: has been in blackout, and I'm quite sure you know, 583 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 6: that will be something that will that questions will be 584 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 6: raised around it to the best of the ability that 585 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 6: a company can share what they're working with Apple about. 586 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 6: But again, you know, taking a step back on the 587 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 6: developments on Capex, let's not forget that this is a 588 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 6: company that has committed to share buybacks as well as 589 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 6: you know, they also started paying out dividends the last 590 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 6: physical year. So as the Capex demand increases on the 591 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 6: cloud front as well as logistics, let's not forget that. 592 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 6: Let's see how they will look to actually maintain this 593 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 6: commitment to actually try and improve shareholder's new you know, 594 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:29,959 Speaker 6: in the next one year. 595 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 4: Catherine, thank you so much for helping us understand more 596 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 4: about what's happening with Ali Baba as we look to 597 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 4: the company's earnings report in the week ahead. She is 598 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 4: Katherine Lim, senior Consumer and Technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, 599 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 4: joining us from Singapore. We go next to South Korea, 600 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 4: where we'll get a report this week on consumer confidence. 601 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,560 Speaker 4: We thought it would be a good time to take 602 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 4: a look at what's happening in the broader economy in 603 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 4: South Korea, and for that we'll bring in Bloomberg Sam 604 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 4: Kim Sam cover the economies of South Korea and Japan 605 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,719 Speaker 4: from our bureau in Seoul. Sam, it's always a pleasure. 606 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 4: Can you give me an understanding of what's been happening 607 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 4: with consumers broadly speaking in South Korea? 608 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, consumer inflation is generally seen as stable right now 609 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 10: in South Korea, although it did pick up a little 610 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 10: bit last month. That's because of higher energy and food prices. 611 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 10: What happened was the Lunar New Year holiday when families 612 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 10: gather and they travel out of town. That happened in 613 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 10: January this year, whereas last year it happened in February. 614 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 10: So we do get a little bit of year on 615 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 10: year pickup in inflation, and that's a good reason for 616 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 10: the Central bank here to kind of downplay the importance 617 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 10: of that pickup. And we're kind of expecting that the 618 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 10: Bank of Korea is going to continue to move its 619 00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 10: rate down in order to ease the expenses interest expenses 620 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 10: for consumers. But at the same time, there are clear 621 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 10: signs that consumers are not feeling very happy because of 622 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 10: the political turmo that's been disrupting a lot of you know, 623 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 10: the political processes here, and there was a plane crash 624 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,920 Speaker 10: in December that really hurt the consumer confidence. And then 625 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 10: of course we have the Trump effect. There's a lot 626 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 10: of people who are concerned about what that person is 627 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 10: going to do in terms of tariffs on a country 628 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 10: like South Korea which is very, very rely on exports 629 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 10: for growth. 630 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 5: Before we get to. 631 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 4: The tariff part of the story, I'm curious to get 632 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 4: back to the consumer. You and I have spoken in 633 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 4: the past about the degree to which the Bank of 634 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 4: Korea was concerned about elevated property prices. What's the story 635 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 4: on the real estate market in South Korea right now. 636 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 10: What happened last year was the Bank of Korea, which 637 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 10: is the central bank in South Korea, basically maintain its 638 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 10: interest rate at higher than use level for an extended 639 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 10: period of time, longer than people thought they would keep 640 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 10: it there, and that's really helped tempt down the household 641 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 10: that increases, which are usually correlated with the housing prices. 642 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 10: So from late last year, we've been seeing the apartment 643 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:26,360 Speaker 10: and housing market prices more or less behaving, you know, 644 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,359 Speaker 10: staying a little bit under pressure, not going up too high. 645 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 10: So there's a lot of concerns surrounding the housing market 646 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 10: have come down so far, and that's what to allow 647 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 10: the back of Korea to shift their focus. 648 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 4: So let's take a closer look now at the export 649 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 4: part of the economy and the degree to which US 650 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 4: tariffs may negatively impact that. I think it was in 651 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,919 Speaker 4: the last week that South Korea's top economic think tank 652 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,920 Speaker 4: cut the growth forecast for South Korea for the second 653 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 4: time in four months. How much of that is due 654 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,879 Speaker 4: to the story on exports and the expectation that US 655 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,560 Speaker 4: tariffs will curtail export activity. 656 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:15,440 Speaker 10: The biggest part of South Care's exports is semiconductors, and 657 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:20,799 Speaker 10: those semiconductors are produced by companies like Samsung Electronics and Eskaehis. 658 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 10: That semiconductor rally that South Korea enjoy last year is 659 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 10: starting to cool now from late last year, we've been 660 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 10: seeing the export growth numbers for semiconductors starting to go 661 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 10: down to the single digit levels. You're on your own basis, 662 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 10: So a lot of people are expecting, given that the 663 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:48,800 Speaker 10: chip industry has this notorious women bus cycle, Korean economy 664 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 10: is going to start to suffer because cheap exports are 665 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 10: going to start to soften. That's at least the expectation 666 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 10: of many economists and semiconductor watchers here. And it is 667 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:04,320 Speaker 10: particular concerning given that the US government under Trump is 668 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,719 Speaker 10: likely to impose tariffs on countries not just South Korea, 669 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 10: but based all around the world. And what happens because 670 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 10: of that would be South Korea not being able to 671 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,800 Speaker 10: sort of export enough to not just the US but 672 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 10: other countries that are impacted by the terrorists. 673 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,319 Speaker 4: Sam, We're looking forward to learning a little bit more 674 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 4: about how the South Korean consumer is performing when we 675 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,520 Speaker 4: look at the data on consumer confidence that's due in 676 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,920 Speaker 4: the week ahead Bloomberg. Sam Kim covers the economies of 677 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 4: South Korea and Japan from our bureau in Seoul, and 678 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 4: I'm Doug Chrisner. You can catch us weekdays for the 679 00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:47,479 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast. Tom. 680 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,239 Speaker 2: Thank you Doug. And that does it for this edition 681 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,160 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning 682 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,200 Speaker 2: at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on 683 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,879 Speaker 2: markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. 684 00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:59,280 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby. 685 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 7: Stay with us. 686 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 2: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.