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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have pursal? Indeed, we do. Lots of

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Speaker 1: big news breaking this morning from overseas. In particular, Russia

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Speaker 1: is warning that Ukraine may use a dirty bomb on

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Speaker 1: their own territory. Of course, no one thinks that makes sense,

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Speaker 1: but it is ominous. Nonetheless, we will break all of

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Speaker 1: that down. Also, some pretty interesting mysteries from Jijinping's ascension.

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Speaker 1: His reacclimation, some weird things going on there. We will

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Speaker 1: also break down that and what that might mean new polling.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the midterms, we have increasingly clear picture

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Speaker 1: of the midterms shifting back towards the GOP, mainstream media

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Speaker 1: finally taking notice. We also have extraordinarily high interest in

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Speaker 1: the midterms, voters turning out already in record numbers in

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Speaker 1: the early voting period. What does that mean anybody's guests

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Speaker 1: at this point. We also are taking a look at

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Speaker 1: a mixed bag in terms of student debt relief, and

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Speaker 1: it's how it's varing in the courts. Some wins for

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration. One big loss or challenge there has

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Speaker 1: been an injunction put in place so that people cannot

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Speaker 1: get relief until these matters are resolved. We will tell

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Speaker 1: you all about that. And also the Biden White House

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Speaker 1: continuing to be in sort of denial about how the

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Speaker 1: economy is actually going for people. Yes, indeed, Sagar is

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Speaker 1: taking a deep look at China. I am taking a

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Speaker 1: look at the GOP's potentially catastrophic economic plans. But we

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Speaker 1: did want to start with the news out of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: That's right, Okay, let's go ahead and put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen. There's a lot of developments in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours. So first and foremost is

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Speaker 1: the Russian Defense minister held calls with several NATO heads

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Speaker 1: of Defense and here's what he said, Saragei Shogu. He

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Speaker 1: said that there was a quote unproven claim in his

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Speaker 1: phone conversations with several defense secretaries that Ukraine was going

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Speaker 1: to use a dirty bomb on its own territory. The

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Speaker 1: claim being that Ukrainians are manufacturing some sort of event

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Speaker 1: in order to precipitate NATO involvement. Now, as many pointed out,

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Speaker 1: that also would precipitate possible Russian escalation, so they certainly

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Speaker 1: have an interest in doing so. The point being that

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Speaker 1: tensions are probably higher today than they have been in

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Speaker 1: quite a long time. One of the things that a

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Speaker 1: lot of us took notice here in Washington. Let's go

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Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen, is that

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Speaker 1: there were actually two separate phone calls between the head

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Speaker 1: of the Russian military and Lloyd Austin, our own defense secretary.

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Speaker 1: That was the second of two phone calls in just

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Speaker 1: a matter of days. And Crystal, that is the first

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Speaker 1: time that the two had spoken since the outbreak of

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Speaker 1: the war itself. Here's a readout from the Russian side.

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Speaker 1: They say, quote heads of defense departments discussed the situation

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine, showgu spoke with counterpoints from France, Turkey and

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Speaker 1: the United Kingdom. Notably, all of those are NATO allies,

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Speaker 1: and all of them have had a pretty big role

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Speaker 1: in trying to have any you know, any of the

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Speaker 1: nascent negotiations in the early days. They were involved. This morning,

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Speaker 1: there was also a joint statement that was put out

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Speaker 1: by all of the NATO heads of Secretaries of State.

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Speaker 1: Now what they said there crystal is that they were

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Speaker 1: pushing back against the so called claim around the dirty bombs.

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Speaker 1: It was a joint state between the US, Britain, and France.

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Speaker 1: Notably Turkey was left off of that. Here exactly what

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Speaker 1: they say. They say that the defense ministers had all

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Speaker 1: spoken and confirmed those calls. They say that the world

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Speaker 1: would see through any attempt to use this allegation as

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Speaker 1: a pretext for escalation. So that is why it all matters.

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Speaker 1: Our own State Department put it out and says we

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Speaker 1: the foreign ministers of France, United Kingdom of the United

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Speaker 1: States reiterate are steadfast support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial

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Speaker 1: integrity in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression. We remain

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Speaker 1: committed to continue supporting Ukraine's efforts to defend its territory.

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Speaker 1: Earlier today, they confirm that our country has made clear

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Speaker 1: we all reject Russia's transparently false allegations that Ukraine is

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Speaker 1: preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.

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Speaker 1: The world would see through any of the attempts. We

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Speaker 1: further reject any pretext for escalation by Russia. The Foreign

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Speaker 1: ministers also discuss their shared determination to continue supporting Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and the Ukrainian people. So why does that matter? Obviously,

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Speaker 1: this seems to be in a very very tense event.

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Speaker 1: It would not be outside of the Russian playbook to

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Speaker 1: facilitate some sort of quote unquote false flag operation. And

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Speaker 1: you know, according to them, they may not need any

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Speaker 1: so called false flag crystal. They could just claim that

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Speaker 1: they have intelligence showing that which is the preset pretext

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Speaker 1: for a further type of strike, a further invasion. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: all eyes right now on Belarus and the Russian massing

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Speaker 1: of troops that are there on the border northern border

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine. We have no idea how many troops there are.

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Speaker 1: Some leaks of intelligence analysts say it could be as

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Speaker 1: small as ten thousand. It could also be tens of thousands.

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Speaker 1: We have very very little insight into what's happening. All

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Speaker 1: we know is that the situation is tense enough where

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Speaker 1: I think it's incredibly noteworthy that the Russian Defence Minister

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Speaker 1: in his very first call is basically pushing this on

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Speaker 1: all of the NATO defense ministers, you know, in effect

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Speaker 1: kind of giving them almost a little bit of a warning.

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Speaker 1: We don't exactly know what was said, but like we said,

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Speaker 1: to watch this situation very close. It comes on the

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Speaker 1: heels of nordstream and also on the heels of the

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Speaker 1: Crimean bridge attack. Yeah, and on the heels of them

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Speaker 1: threatening use of nuclear weapons. So I mean that's the

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Speaker 1: backdrop for all of this is, Oh, is this the

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Speaker 1: pretext that they're going to use with their own population

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Speaker 1: to justify the use of a quote unquote tactical nuclear

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Speaker 1: weapon or at least quote unquote some kind of nuclear test.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's the really terrifying scenario, and I think

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Speaker 1: that has to be what US, UK and France are

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Speaker 1: all thinking when they're putting out this joint communication saying

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Speaker 1: we see through your lies. None of us is going

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Speaker 1: to fall for this whatsoever. And see, you know, we

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Speaker 1: see through what you're doing here. I think the most

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Speaker 1: that we can say at this point is that something

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Speaker 1: is going on. And the way that we know that

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Speaker 1: for sure is we haven't had communication at this level

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Speaker 1: of our government and Russia's government for a long time.

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Speaker 1: I really don't know the last time that the Defense

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Speaker 1: Wars spoke. I think it was before the war. They

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Speaker 1: spoke twice in a matter of days, and it was

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Speaker 1: explicitly at the request of Shogu, the Russian Defense Minister,

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Speaker 1: and it was obviously explicitly to convey this sort of

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Speaker 1: ominous warning slash threat. What does it mean? Where does

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Speaker 1: it lead? No one knows. I think all we can

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Speaker 1: say at this point it is extremely unnerving in a

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Speaker 1: very ominous situation. Yeah. One quote I wanted to highlight

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Speaker 1: is that Shogu in his readout from his speech from

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Speaker 1: his talk with the French Defence Minister, here's what he said.

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Speaker 1: They discussed the situation in Ukraine, which is rapidly deteriorating.

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Speaker 1: It is trending towards further uncontrolled escalation. So they are

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Speaker 1: using a pretext, possibly of a so called dirty bomb.

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Speaker 1: They are warning a further uncontrolled escalation. It does not

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Speaker 1: escape us that this is the first major diplomatic contact

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Speaker 1: between the two nations and months and to have the

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Speaker 1: circumstances of this be confirmed by all of the NATO

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Speaker 1: defense ministers who spoke with them, and all United in saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: we would reject any pretext of this as quote unquote

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Speaker 1: further escalation. We should be worried. We do not know

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Speaker 1: what that quote unquote escalation could look like. It could

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Speaker 1: be a redux of the drone attack which we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about in a little bit on their critical infrastructure which

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Speaker 1: is wreaked tavoc on Ukraine's energy. It could be more

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Speaker 1: missile strikes that we had seen previously. It could involve Belarus.

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Speaker 1: And then the nightmare scenario is that it involves tactical

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, you know, the first one that we had called.

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Speaker 1: The Defense Minister of the UK in his initial call

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Speaker 1: put out the statement. Put it up there on the

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Speaker 1: screen because he makes it clear what you said. At

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Speaker 1: the request of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State for Defense spoke with his Russian counterpart this afternoon,

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Speaker 1: So this was a call precipitated by the Russians. Now

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Speaker 1: with Shogu too, there's been a lot of Kremlinology in

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Speaker 1: analyzing what's going on with this guy. He was inside

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Speaker 1: Putin's circle and yet Crystal he has not been seen

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Speaker 1: publicly in a while now. He was at the so

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Speaker 1: called annexation, but he was not at the latest speech

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Speaker 1: where Putin was talking about escalation post annexation. Kremlinologists were

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Speaker 1: looking at that or like, hmm, maybe Shogu is out

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Speaker 1: of favor, maybe he's the fall guy. The point being

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Speaker 1: that Shogu has his back against the wall. He clearly

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Speaker 1: is going to have some blame for this, both from

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Speaker 1: Putin and from the Russian public. They need a fall

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Speaker 1: guy just like everybody does. And so he really is

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Speaker 1: in a tight spot, and Putin really has him in

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Speaker 1: a situation where he's going to say, you have to

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Speaker 1: be my front man for anything that I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be doing. Our fates are intertwined, and if you don't

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Speaker 1: do a good job, I'll either have you killed or

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Speaker 1: you know, you're going to get fired and eventually fall

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Speaker 1: out of a window or something like that. But my

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Speaker 1: point is that Shogu himself is not all is also

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Speaker 1: in a precarious situation. Yeah, when he's going through these

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Speaker 1: phone calls. There's a couple other things to say here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, just to explain what a

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Speaker 1: dirty bomb actually is, right, It's a device that uses

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Speaker 1: explosives to scatter radioactive waste. Doesn't have the impact of

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Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon, but could still expose large areas to

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Speaker 1: radioactive contamination, which again is why there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: skepticism that Ukraine would be looking to launch one of

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Speaker 1: bees on their own soil, which could potentially impact their

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Speaker 1: own people. We also should consider the broader context here.

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Speaker 1: Of of course, how is Russia faring in the war

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Speaker 1: right now? And we're going to get into a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of this in a moment, But as we

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Speaker 1: reported to you last week, it looks like they are

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Speaker 1: preparing to lose Cursom, which is one of the first

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Speaker 1: major cities that they were able to claim in this war.

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Speaker 1: That would yet another stunning defeat. You see desperate moves

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Speaker 1: like the official imposition of martial law in the four

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Speaker 1: illegally annexed territories and a sort of like maybe sort

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Speaker 1: of kind of martial law in other parts of Russia.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we had the mass mobilization of several hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand Russians as best we can tell, and of course

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Speaker 1: that resulted in a lot of domestic upheaval and many

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Speaker 1: military age men either fleeing the country or basically going

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Speaker 1: into hiding. So they're in a very difficult situation. We

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Speaker 1: also should keep in mind that they have a new

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Speaker 1: much harder line general in charge of this effort. And

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Speaker 1: then that's when we've seen you know, the strikes on

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Speaker 1: Kiev again, the strike strikes on infrastructure, these war sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, all in brutal tactics to terrorize the

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Speaker 1: population even as it has not actually changed their ability

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Speaker 1: to win on the battlefield. So that's the context in

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Speaker 1: which this call comes in and part of why it

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Speaker 1: is such a frightening situation. Yeah, and that's just what

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Speaker 1: I think we shall underscore in this segment, which is

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Speaker 1: that it's a tense, tense situation as to how exactly

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Speaker 1: these things go. Could be weeks, could be days. We

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Speaker 1: really have no idea. This is exactly the type of

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Speaker 1: stuff they were doing right before the invasion of Ukraine. Right,

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Speaker 1: you know, not lost that false flags precipitated the Nazi

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Speaker 1: invasion of Russia. You know many other Russian invasions and

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Speaker 1: or escalations in the past, false flags have precipitated escalations

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Speaker 1: here in the United States. The point being that this

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Speaker 1: is a time honored, unfortunate tradition, and even if everybody

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Speaker 1: knows it's BS, that doesn't always stop the belligerent from

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Speaker 1: just sticking with it and selling their own populace. So

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Speaker 1: lots of scrutiny that should be paid to this, but

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Speaker 1: I do take it very seriously. In the context of

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Speaker 1: Nordstream and especially the Crimean escalation or the Crimean bridge

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Speaker 1: and then the missile attack, things are all trending in

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Speaker 1: a scarier direction. Now let's turn the tables and look

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Speaker 1: over at the Ukrainian side. Now Zelenski giving an interview,

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Speaker 1: which there are two separate things that we want to

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Speaker 1: show you. First is CBS News, which is doing a

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Speaker 1: new report from the front line near the Ukrainian border

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Speaker 1: where they actually embed with the one hundred and first

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Speaker 1: Airborne Division, which is a practicing for war with Russia,

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Speaker 1: and not just doing that, but granting full access to

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Speaker 1: these journalists to do. Essentially, what is a shaping operation

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Speaker 1: in terms of propaganda as to why exactly this is

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Speaker 1: also important, Let's take a listen to that. At a

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Speaker 1: forward operating site, we watched as US soldiers and Romanian

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Speaker 1: troops pounded targets in a joint ground in aerosoults hank

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Speaker 1: grounds and artillery fire are real. So is the enemy

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Speaker 1: meant to recreate the fight against Russian forces in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: A message to Russia and NATO allies alike, we're here.

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Speaker 1: The real meaning for me to have the American troops

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Speaker 1: here is like if you were to have allies in

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Speaker 1: Normandy before any enemy was there. In all, roughly forty

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Speaker 1: seven hundred soldiers of the one hundred First Screaming Eagles

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Speaker 1: from Fort Campbell, Kentucky have been deployed to reinforce NATO's

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Speaker 1: eastern flank. You've had an opportunity to watch, observe, and

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Speaker 1: possibly study the Russians. What do you think of them

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Speaker 1: so far? So we're closely watching them. So we're building

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Speaker 1: objectives to practice against that replicate exactly what's going on

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine. We're the closest American unit to the fighting

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine, and what does that feel like, what does

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Speaker 1: that mean? Did I keep us on our toes right through?

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Speaker 1: Ready to fight tonight is a message that we've heard repeatedly.

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Speaker 1: It's not just about defending NATO territory, but if the

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Speaker 1: fight escalates and NATO partners are under threat, they're fully

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Speaker 1: prepared to cross over into Ukrainian territory if ordered to

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Speaker 1: do so. Back to you in the studio, A couple

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Speaker 1: of things to take notice on that. Number One, that

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Speaker 1: wasn't just on That wasn't on evening TV, that was

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Speaker 1: morning TV. So that was like the feel good segment

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Speaker 1: of that. But look, I think it's incredibly noteworthy that

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Speaker 1: the one hundred and first Airborne ODD only is doing this,

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Speaker 1: but is also granting interviews and making it very clearly like, hey,

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Speaker 1: we're right here, we're doing all this stuff. They see

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Speaker 1: it very much in terms of the World War two

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Speaker 1: Normandy analogy kind of ready to jump in at any moment.

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Speaker 1: And look, I mean, regardless of whether you even support

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Speaker 1: that or not, it is happening. It would not necessarily

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Speaker 1: that we even have a say, and it's happening at

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Speaker 1: the same time that Ukraine's President Zelenski is urging even

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Speaker 1: more Western intervention. So we'll remember, after the missile strikes,

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Speaker 1: they went to Israel and they say, hey, we need

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Speaker 1: iron Dome. They came to the US and said, we

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Speaker 1: need even more missile defense systems. They want patriot missile

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Speaker 1: defense systems, which we can't even sell them because we

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Speaker 1: can't make them enough. They got the Germans to give

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Speaker 1: them some anti missile defense systems. We're asking for iron

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Speaker 1: dome from Israel, except well the israel Israelis were like no,

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Speaker 1: which I again find it fascinating. They are not under

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Speaker 1: any scrutina in the Western press. Incredible allies that we've

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Speaker 1: accumulated here over the years. They can do what they want.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just saying, you know, they get almost no

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Speaker 1: criticism apparently in the West for doing so, when India

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Speaker 1: is apparently like the worst nation on earth, just because

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Speaker 1: they continue to buy their oil. Anyway, put that aside.

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Speaker 1: Zelenski himself after the critical attacks on Ukrainian energy, which

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Speaker 1: has decimated the grid, almost forty percent of the grid

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Speaker 1: which is down. We've got rolling blackouts across the country,

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Speaker 1: very unreliable power generation, and of course we're going into winter.

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Speaker 1: He is now coming out and saying that the presidential

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Speaker 1: office in Kiev if it effor gets hit, that the

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Speaker 1: US should precipitate a strike against Russia. Let's go and

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Speaker 1: put this interview up there. We've got subtitles, so we

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Speaker 1: cut the audio. It says, if you strike the street

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Speaker 1: where the presidential palace is located, then there will be

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Speaker 1: a strike where you are. This is what he is saying,

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Speaker 1: the one who gives out orders to kill people. Well,

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Speaker 1: he continues, he says, if you do that, you must

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Speaker 1: know that in one second, what will happen is that

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Speaker 1: no matter what the result of your strike is, there

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Speaker 1: will be a strike on your decision making center. The

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Speaker 1: point being on two things. Number one, which is that

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Speaker 1: he's opening the door for if the Russians try and

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Speaker 1: do some sort of decapitation operation against hit presidential office,

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Speaker 1: that perhaps either the US will strike on their behalf

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Speaker 1: or some sort of NATO country or Ukraine will strike

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Speaker 1: on Russian territory using American supply. Right, are well, both

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Speaker 1: are Let's just say in escalation. Now, look, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Russians don't have to hit the presidential office. They

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Speaker 1: could make sure that none of this happens. But of

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Speaker 1: course it doesn't mean that this couldn't further draw us

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Speaker 1: into a conflict. Zelenski from the beginning has been trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out a way to get us more into

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Speaker 1: this thing, and I mean, I don't blame him for that,

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Speaker 1: right And so obviously he doesn't directly name the US

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Speaker 1: or NATO in this, but the reality is they are

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Speaker 1: able to strike with the weapons that we give them,

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Speaker 1: so we have so far resisted giving the longest range

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Speaker 1: missiles that would be able to accomplish the sort of

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Speaker 1: attack that he's talking about. And so if you read

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Speaker 1: sort of between the lines here, that's how we get

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Speaker 1: drawn in and how we get implicated and what he

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Speaker 1: is urging here if in fact there is a strike

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Speaker 1: on you know, the presidential offices basically where he would

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Speaker 1: be and you know, I don't know if this is

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Speaker 1: based on some sort of intelligence of what he expects

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Speaker 1: to happen. Certainly there have been calls from the more

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Speaker 1: hawkish figures in Russia to you know, attack government buildings

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Speaker 1: and government information centers that could include the presidential offices

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Speaker 1: there that he is talking about. So you know, these

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Speaker 1: are just ominous continued signs. And going back to the

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Speaker 1: piece from CBS. It's interesting on two levels. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: that it's happening and that they're there preparing very close

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Speaker 1: to the border that you know, hey, if we get

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Speaker 1: pulled in, we're ready to go. We're ready to go

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Speaker 1: into Ukrainian territory. I mean them just saying that television

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Speaker 1: is extraordinary. And then the other piece of it that

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Speaker 1: is interesting is that they are you know, this is

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Speaker 1: a piece of propaganda for the US military, like this

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Speaker 1: is the administration's line. This is what they want to

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Speaker 1: tell the public to try to I guess prepare us

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Speaker 1: for the idea that that is a possible eventuality. That's

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Speaker 1: why that piece is so important, not only because it's happening,

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Speaker 1: but because this is a message they want to go

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Speaker 1: out to the US public. Alesment let me explain to

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Speaker 1: you on its former Pentagon correspondent, you do not get

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Speaker 1: access to these units period without approval at the very

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Speaker 1: very highest level. So somebody in the European Command may

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Speaker 1: have made this call, but honestly it probably came from

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Speaker 1: the White House given how sensitive it is. And something

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Speaker 1: that you and I covered actually seven months ago before

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Speaker 1: the invasion was that our troops that were being sent

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Speaker 1: to the East. Reporters were not being allowed as embeds.

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Speaker 1: We were not allowing Western media outlets to embed with

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Speaker 1: those forward deployed troops from NATO all the way on

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Speaker 1: the eastern flank, meaning that a sas to these troops

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Speaker 1: is very very very tightly controlled, just as it was

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Speaker 1: with Syria. This was a granted interview. They wanted us

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Speaker 1: to see this. More importantly, I think they want the

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Speaker 1: Kremlin to see this, and it comes on the heels

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Speaker 1: of us some other shaping operations in our media. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: This was actually an interview with David Petraeus and a

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Speaker 1: French outlet. Now the headline for those who don't read

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Speaker 1: French things, people will translate. Here's what the headline says,

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Speaker 1: quote David Petraeus, XCIA colon a force led by the

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Speaker 1: United States could intervene in Ukraine. Now what former General

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Speaker 1: Petreus and former CIA director Petraeus and also noteworthy, the

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Speaker 1: very first former US official to appear on television and

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Speaker 1: say that if Russia does use a tactical nuclear weapon,

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Speaker 1: that the United States would strike the Black Sea Fleet

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Speaker 1: in a conventional military operation, effectively drawing US into a

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Speaker 1: full blown war with Russia and World War three. He

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Speaker 1: is that first person now continuing these operations, he is

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Speaker 1: saying that the US could lead a quote multinational but

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Speaker 1: not NATO force in the event of some precipitating escalation

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Speaker 1: where we would have to intervene in Ukraine. Once again,

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Speaker 1: this is a point. This is like the forward most

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Speaker 1: point of propaganda. And this really does show you how

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Speaker 1: media and former officials are used. There is no such

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Speaker 1: thing as former CIA in my opinion, and especially like

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Speaker 1: former generals, given how tapped in all these guys are

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Speaker 1: into the blob, into the establishment. They are sent out

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Speaker 1: there in kind of a proxy for how the US

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Speaker 1: public is thinking about these debates. Petraeus himself is no

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Speaker 1: stranger to this. He was one of the people who

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Speaker 1: effectively forced Obama's hand with several other allies by leaking

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Speaker 1: to the media that we needed to have a surge

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Speaker 1: in Afghanistan back when he was there. Of course, he

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Speaker 1: was involved in the surge in Iraq. He you know,

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Speaker 1: really was a very well respected public figure before his

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Speaker 1: own cheating scandal and all of the FBI giving classified

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Speaker 1: material to his mistress. It's a whole other thing But

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Speaker 1: the point is that he is using his reputation, his

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Speaker 1: connections to be on the most bleeding edge of pushing

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Speaker 1: conventional war with Russia. And more so, how exactly it

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Speaker 1: would go down. Now, you know, personally, anytime I hear

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Speaker 1: multinational coalition of the willing, there are some scars for

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Speaker 1: the younger gen Z people. That's what we call the

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Speaker 1: invasion force in Iraq. The fact that it would be

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Speaker 1: non NATO actually doesn't make a lot of sense to me,

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Speaker 1: because then, you know, isn't this entire effort because we're

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Speaker 1: supposedly is to be supporting the NATO red line. We're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: this is so close to NATO that we have to

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Speaker 1: get involved and give so that he doesn't strike NATO.

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Speaker 1: But then it wouldn't be NATO if there were a defense.

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Speaker 1: So which multinational countries? Why are there discussions that are

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Speaker 1: going on right now? I would take this as some

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Speaker 1: sort of confirmation that the discussion at the least has happening.

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Speaker 1: Why is this so specific? That's the piece and the

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Speaker 1: question here from the interview or of translated into English,

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Speaker 1: is what is the red line beyond which NATO US

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Speaker 1: become more involved in the conflict? And he says, I

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Speaker 1: think the red line for NATO is directly related to

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Speaker 1: the collective self Defense commitment of Article five, that is

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Speaker 1: to say, an attack against a NATO member country. Having

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Speaker 1: said that, and this is the most interesting part, troubling part,

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Speaker 1: I think it is possible that Russia could take an

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Speaker 1: action in Ukraine that would be so shocking and so

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Speaker 1: horrific that the US and other countries might react in

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Speaker 1: one way or another, but as a force multinational led

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Speaker 1: by the US, and not as a NATO force. So

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Speaker 1: what he's laying out here is that, of course, one

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Speaker 1: red line for NATO is an attack directly on a

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Speaker 1: NATO country. Okay, we all kind of already know that.

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Speaker 1: We may not like it, but we already know that.

432
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 1: But what he's saying here is theoretically Russia could do

433
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: something so atrocious on Ukrainian soil that that in and

434
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: of itself would draw us in. That's different. That's different

435
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: from what certainly the Biden administration is saying. That's different

436
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: from what the American people's expectation is. And you know,

437
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 1: coming in the context of Russia's weird warnings about a

438
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: dirty bomb and threats of tactical nuclear weapon use. This

439
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: is you know, this is something to take note of.

440
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 1: Of course, Petraeus is not in the Biden administration, but

441
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: as Sagar is pointing out, extremely well connected member of

442
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: the blob. And so anytime one of those people speaks

443
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 1: out and sort of pushes the edge of where, you know,

444
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: where we're leading, where we're going, and what these scenarios

445
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: might be as they unfold, that's something to really really

446
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: take note of. And then you add on top of

447
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: that the piece of you know, basically military propaganda from CBS.

448
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: I don't blame CBS run you get that, you know,

449
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: exclusive Look, it's real news. But this is also serving

450
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: a purpose to sort of either you know, message to

451
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: the Kremlin, message to our on population. There's an effort

452
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: here from the administration to shape the narrative of how

453
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: people are thinking about this conflict and how the Kremlin

454
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: is potentially thinking about this conflict. That's right. And so

455
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: then you layer up on top of all of this,

456
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 1: and now Iran is involved in some sort of axis situation.

457
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: Let's gohe and put this up there on the screen.

458
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: Lots being made of this in the last couple of

459
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: days that the US is claiming that intelligence shows that

460
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: the Russians are shopping for Iranian military drones ahead of

461
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: a state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Tehran.

462
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: Apparently it's scheduled this week where he will be meeting

463
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: with Iran and also this is very noteworthy with the

464
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: Turkish president, who of course is a NATO ally. Now,

465
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: the reason why all of this matters is because these

466
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: unmanned UAVs which have been provided by the Iranians are

467
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: allegedly operating crystal out of Crimea actually and are being

468
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 1: used in order to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Counterpoints to

469
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,199
Speaker 1: a great segment, I believe while we were gone of

470
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: Iranian drones in the sky basically doing like suicide missions

471
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 1: against Kiev in the middle of the night, but really

472
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: where they've been most devastating is on critical energy infrastructure.

473
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: The grid there is just getting wiped out and if

474
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: given Russian control of the nuclear power plant, Ukraine is

475
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: in a very precarious situation right now going into winter.

476
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: The reason that this matters is because with Tehran actively

477
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: citing at the Russian not only sighting but selling them weapons,

478
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: giving them some of the technology, also having at least

479
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: some operators in Crimea that are helping them. This is

480
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: all alleged, you know, obviously there's no confirmation on any

481
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: of this. The point being that for them to effectively

482
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: side with Moscow in this conflict while they're also doing

483
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 1: the Iran deal negotiations with Washington shows that that deal

484
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: is almost certainly but dead, which actually gets us into

485
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 1: even more of a precarious situation because if you zoom

486
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 1: out and you look at our show, what are we

487
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 1: talking about next? China? So we have a slow moving

488
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: crisis with China and Taiwan in the East. Then we've

489
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 1: got a full blown war in Eastern Europe with Russia

490
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: and Ukraine. And now we've got the Iranians actively siding

491
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: with the Russians, possibly also precipitating some sort of conflagration

492
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. It really is like World War

493
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: One well over again, and everybody has their own interests

494
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 1: as to why exactly they would be posturing and doing this,

495
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: And not only that, how badly did the Biden administration

496
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: screw this thing up by not getting back into the

497
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: nuclear deal to start with. I mean, they had their chance.

498
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 1: You know, we had doctor Parsi on how many times

499
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: saying the time to act is right away. Why because

500
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: Ran was about to have elections. And guess what, it

501
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 1: all unfolded exactly as he predicted and as he feared,

502
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: which is that you have a new hardliner in charge.

503
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: And so that has made negotiations more difficult. They continue

504
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: to drag their feet. Now it looks like those negotiations

505
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: have to be on the brink of collapse, given not

506
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: only what's happening here, but also what's happening, you know,

507
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: domestically in Iran. So we managed to you know, continue

508
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: our very adversarial relationship with Iran. We also so the

509
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: whole idea of our foreign policy and Middle East is

510
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: like We're going to side with Saudi in this like

511
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: conflict with Iran. Well, now the Saudis are on there,

512
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 1: they're all helping Russia. They're all on the other side

513
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: of the equation. So just a total, total, disastrous, preventable

514
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: catastrophe in terms of what is ultimately happening here. And yeah,

515
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the idea at this point of

516
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: the Iranian nuclear deal coming back to gather, it's just

517
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: impossible to imagine how that could ultimately happen. So, you know,

518
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: it's a really it's a very ugly situation that and

519
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: it really is. Listen, the Trump administration, they're the ones

520
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 1: that back down the Iranian nuclear deal to start with.

521
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: So let's lay the blame where that belongs. But ultimately,

522
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 1: the Biden administration could have and should have gotten right

523
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 1: back in at the beginning, and they failed to do it.

524
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: And now they have probably lost their chance. Almost certainly

525
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 1: they lost their chance. I don't see any possible way

526
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 1: that it could happen. And then, you know, no matter

527
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: who gets elected president, I just the geopolitical situation is

528
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: so look look at the Saudis. It took the Saudis

529
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: quote unquote siding with the Russians for the Washington establishment

530
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: to turn against the Saudis. So and once you side

531
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: with them, you know, in the eyes of the blob,

532
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: you are done forever. And just to reiterate, put this

533
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: up there, over a one point four million Ukrainian households

534
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: have lost electricity as of the morning of those air raids.

535
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: The grid is absolutely devastated. There continue to be the

536
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: drone attacks. There are emergency alert all across the country.

537
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: They are warning a full blown blackouts. It's cold in Kiev.

538
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 1: It is cold all across Ukraine and it's generally regarded

539
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 1: what did I say last year was like between November

540
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: sixteenth and March the average high is thirty degrees, which

541
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: is crazy. So when you consider all of that, a

542
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: it's probably going to precipitate a more of a refugee situation.

543
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: If there are blackouts, you know, that's going to be

544
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: really sad. And look, let's also be honest. You know,

545
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 1: a lot of old people die in the middle of

546
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: these blackouts as well, especially in the winter. That was

547
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 1: a problem in many of the past wars that were

548
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 1: in this area. So there's a lot of human tragedy

549
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: that's happening as a result of this, and things are

550
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: really escalating in a dangerous direction. But wanted to make

551
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: sure we keep everybody up to date. Okay, let's go

552
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: ahead and move on to China. There have been so

553
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: many eyes and takes on what we're about to show you.

554
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: It is one of the most stunning displays that we've

555
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: seen in a while. So Shishinping at the People's Congress

556
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: really where he anointed himself the third term, you know,

557
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: leader for life, proclaiming himself in much more of an

558
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: autocratic direction in modern Chinese history since we have seen

559
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: since mal se Dong pulled off one of the most

560
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: crazy stunts that we have seen in the highly choreographed

561
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,239
Speaker 1: dance of Chinese politics in a long time, and in

562
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: many ways, whatever the exact circumstances are, they don't matter

563
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: because the imagery itself was so profound. So let's go

564
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up there and i'll talk over it.

565
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: You can see here this is the People's Congress, Shishingping

566
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: sitting there with U jin Tao, the former president who

567
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: he preceded, who was sitting right next to him. He's

568
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: a seventy nine year old man. Well in the middle

569
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: of the congress. Two handlers for Hu Jintao, allegedly his

570
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: own personal aids, come over and effectively lift him up

571
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: by his armpits, so you can actually see one of

572
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: his handlers. Of course, they both have masks on because

573
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: of zero COVID ADOC in China, and are unwillingly kind

574
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: of dragging him out of the congress. Noteworthy to me,

575
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: look at Shishingping's face For those who are just watching,

576
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: he is staring straight ahead or he's looking to his left. Also,

577
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: look at all the people in the front crystal steal.

578
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: They're either stealing like furtive glances over what's happening, or

579
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: they are solidly just looking forward, pretending as if nothing

580
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: is going on. What you can also see is that

581
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: Hu Jintao, sitting right there, is very slowly starting to

582
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: make his way, and then he does two things right here.

583
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: What you can see he puts his hands on She's

584
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: shoulder and says something to which she go ahead and nods.

585
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: And then he also says something to two of those

586
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: officials to She's right. Those two officials are actually who

587
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: allies who she retired for not being loyal to his regime,

588
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: even though they were in their like mid sixties. She

589
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 1: Shingping himself is only sixty seven years old, so for

590
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: him to retire them at such an early age was

591
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: a very interesting moment. What this really showed us is

592
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: that she again, no matter what happened here, and we

593
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: should know, let's go put this foreign policy piece up.

594
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: There are basically three explanations. One, and actually this would

595
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: make a lot of sense, is China's zero covid idiocy,

596
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: as in who possibly popped positive on a test? Now,

597
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: the reason why though, that wouldn't make a lot of sense,

598
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: is because why would they put him out there on

599
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: the stage for them that test positive in the middle

600
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: of a live television proceeding. I don't think they would

601
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: ever let that happen. Two, who is seventy nine years old.

602
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: He could have been having some sort of like mental

603
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: health dementia episode. There's not a lot known about his health.

604
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: That's the first time he's been seen in public in

605
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: a really long time, so maybe he himself was like,

606
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: I need to get out of here, and then his

607
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: own age, But then why would he be resisting. I mean, look,

608
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: you never know when people are this old. The third

609
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: is exactly what a lot of people took away, which

610
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: is that this is g humiliating his predecessor in front

611
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: of one billion people. And you can guarantee that this

612
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: was shown with no edits nothing. It was shown to

613
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: the entire Chinese public. And the crazy part is they're

614
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: not allowed to discuss it. So if he searched, like

615
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: Chinese TikTok ujin Tao is a band search right now,

616
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 1: so that clip is really only going viral here in

617
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 1: the West. The takeaway I think is obvious. Who for

618
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: all of his authoritarianism. He was a capitalist to his heart.

619
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: GDP increased like many times over. He was the pioneer

620
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: of like the Chinese boom times like him and as

621
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: many of his allies were oligarchs and they became multi

622
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: billionaires under his presidency. He forged a lot of the

623
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: ties with wall Street, great friend of the Bush administration,

624
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: which is sad presided over a lot of the economic

625
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: boom and fulfilling the legacy of Deng Xiaoping. She very

626
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: much sees himself as oppositional to Hu Jintao reinventing the

627
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: Chinese economy in the Chinese society. He took a couple

628
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: of swipes at who actually in his speech in the

629
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: translated version that I looked at, and this is just humiliating.

630
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: I mean, taking your predecessor and dragging him out as

631
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: an elderly man, right being marched across that entire thing

632
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: that zoom out shot of watching this all happen. I mean,

633
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: it's just stunning. So again, whatever the exact circumstances are,

634
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: it almost doesn't matter, because the takeaway is she is

635
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: in charge. This is some styalin stuff. I mean, it

636
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: really is. The Other thing that's interesting, is it is

637
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: pure if it was intended to humiliate and crush in

638
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: all of those things, it's also like wildly unnecessary because

639
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: whose faction has already been crushed, Like any sort of

640
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: power that he held or power base that he held,

641
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 1: they've already been purged. That purge was basically completed at

642
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: this congress, with she bringing in some of his hardline

643
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: allies and getting rid of anyone who was at all

644
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: even remotely potentially adversarial. The other thing to note about it,

645
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: just to bolster the idea that it was like intentional

646
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 1: feed or of humiliation, is this all unfolded right after

647
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: reporters had been let back in, so and it was

648
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: just before like the final votes of that session were

649
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: about to be taken. So you let the media back in,

650
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: and then this almost immediately is what ultimately unfolds. Again,

651
00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 1: these things are not typically accidental. Everything about how this

652
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: unfolded here, this was all choreographed in advance. All of

653
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: the real politics of this was settled and locked in

654
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: months ago. So that also bolsters the idea that this

655
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: was an intentional bit of theater. I think we don't know.

656
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 1: I mean, let's go on. We can also say what

657
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 1: their side of it is they say that he was ill,

658
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: that his aides took him to rest and recuperate, and

659
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 1: that he's feeling much better now. That's what they're saying

660
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: about this whole incident. That's their official line. And also,

661
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: as you said, noteworthy that any sort of discussion of

662
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: this on Chinese social media completely censored, completely banned. Yeah.

663
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: I will say there's a story, a funny story which

664
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: kind of highlights to me why I don't think that

665
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: anything spontaneous happens in China. When Who visited Washington while

666
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: George W. Bush was president here in the South Lawn,

667
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: there was actually a protester that had somehow made its

668
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: way into the event that interrupted Who when he was speaking,

669
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 1: and Who was shocked and outraged, and the Chinese delegation

670
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,160
Speaker 1: effectively told Washington they were like, we know that you

671
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: planted that protester, and they were like, we don't do

672
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: that here. They're like, that's not They're like the guy

673
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: just slipped in, Like what are we supposed to do?

674
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 1: And it was a real culture clash moment because in China,

675
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 1: you can guarantee if there was a protester, they would

676
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: have been planted and nobody is slipping through the cracks.

677
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: So I thought it was, you know, to highlight to me,

678
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: which is who being outraged. Whenever he was faced with

679
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: a spontaneous kind of live thing, he saw it as

680
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: a great humiliation by the Bush administration and by the

681
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: United States. They took it as a real snub. I mean,

682
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: I just don't think spontaneous things happen in the People's

683
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 1: you know, the People's Congress like this. It is choreographed

684
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: to the last detail. All of us remember the Beijing Olympics,

685
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 1: and anytime these people put anything on, they weed out

686
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: any of the possible events. If he had COVID, there's

687
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: no way you would have let him out there on

688
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: the stage if he was so unwell. Why also would

689
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: they see him next to it and then drag his

690
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: ass out A Gent's Frantz Press has a live TV

691
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 1: camera trained on him. I think she knew exactly what

692
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: he was doing. And this was a real mess to

693
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: the Chinese people, and especially to the Chinese elite, because

694
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: people forget this, I'm really doing my home monologue. China

695
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 1: has many competing centers of power. You got the business elite,

696
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: you got the tech oligarchs, you got the CCP. Even

697
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 1: the CCP, there's a lot of wider rays he was

698
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 1: showing all those people. He said, I'm in charge. I'm

699
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 1: in charge. I will drag you out on TV. You're

700
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: not just going to be like jack Man, thrown in

701
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: a basement for a couple of months. I will humiliate

702
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: you in the eyes of the public, even when you

703
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: were once almost a living god as president of the

704
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 1: Chinese you know, of the Chinese Commonist Party. So anyway,

705
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: just a tremendously important event, I think in what the

706
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: future looks like. She is a young man. He's only

707
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 1: sixty seven years old. I believe Mao died when he

708
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: was eighty three. You know, a lot of the analysis

709
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: that I've read is he's really just getting started, like

710
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: this is really the beginning of Shishi Ping's China. Yeah,

711
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: that's kind of scary stuff. And the rest of the

712
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: official moves that happen at the People's Congress really back

713
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 1: up that direction to the choices of who was retired

714
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: off of the polit Boros Standing Committee, the choices of

715
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 1: who was put on. One thing that I saw analysts

716
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: noting is the likely next premiere is this guy who

717
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: was the party's top official in Shanghai. His name is

718
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 1: Lee Kang. He was the one who presided over like

719
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: the worst COVID outbreak, the most insane COVID lockdown procedures.

720
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: So the idea is, we don't really care that he

721
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 1: is not popular. What we care about is he's loyal too.

722
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: He did what I wanted him to do, and that's

723
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: what matters most, loyalty over everything. And so that was

724
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: what was really clear, whatever you make of this incident

725
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,720
Speaker 1: coming out of this People's Congress, so total consolidation of power,

726
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: total you know, thwarting of any sort of even potential adversaries,

727
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: and I think this incident is just really perfectly emblematic

728
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 1: of that. I think we will look back on it

729
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: one day in the decades and be like, yep, that

730
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 1: was the moment. Let's talk about our own domestic politics.

731
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: Here kind of a you know, election seasons upon us

732
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,760
Speaker 1: in case you haven't noticed. And it has been really

733
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: kind of a roller coaster. So of course, at first

734
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 1: it was like red wave City, no doubt about it,

735
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: totally clear what was going to happen. Then you had

736
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: the overturning of Roe versus Way, the Dobbs decision, things

737
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: really shifted. Also at the same time, gas prices were

738
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: going down. Also at the same time, you know, the

739
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: Biden administration was accomplishing a few different legislative initiatives and priorities,

740
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: and you had those couple of open seats special elections

741
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: right where the Democrats actually overperformed. So then you were

742
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: starting and you were seeing these polls coming out, you know,

743
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 1: Fetterman up twelve points, and even Tim Ryan having a

744
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: shot in Ohio and maybe Mendela Barn's going to have

745
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 1: a shot in Wisconsin. That picture has really shifted. Now

746
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 1: as the economy has continued to turn for the worse,

747
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: that Dobb's decision sort of fades into memory. And also,

748
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: you know, we always predicted that after Labor Day, when

749
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: you start looking at likely voters just versus registered voters,

750
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: the GOP almost always picks up ground. Then. So here's

751
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 1: from the Washington Post. Mainstream press really starting to take

752
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 1: notice that things are starting to slip away from the Democrats.

753
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 1: The headline here it's for Michael Scherer. Democrats fear the

754
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: midterm map is slipping away. A couple of the data

755
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 1: points that they have here. They start with the liberal

756
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: Navigator public tracking poll flashing a major warning sign for

757
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: Democrats in mid October, reporting a twenty percentage point jump

758
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: since September in the Sheriff Independent voters concerned about the

759
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: economy and about gas prices. That is terrain that the

760
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 1: Democrats have basically completely ceded to the Republicans in what

761
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 1: I think is one of the most foolish moves you

762
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: could have possibly made. As you know, voters the whole time,

763
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 1: even right after Dobs, We're still telling you the economy

764
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: is our number one issue, and they're like, yeah, we're

765
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 1: not going to talk about that. They say that was

766
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: not all the only data showing attorney of the time

767
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: for Congress regional challenges are showing up in internal Democratic polls.

768
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:08,439
Speaker 1: You even have some places like Rhode Island is one

769
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 1: place that they are worried about. Now. Rhode Island has

770
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 1: not sent a Republican member of to Congress in decades.

771
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 1: So those are the sorts of seats that are in danger.

772
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: Katie Porter, also in a relatively blue district, apparently under

773
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 1: pressure as well. Sean Patrick Maloney, who's actually first of all,

774
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 1: he jumped into a seat that he thought would be safe,

775
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:32,399
Speaker 1: like bigfooting some other more progressive Democratic candidates, and now

776
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 1: it looks like he might be under pressure as well,

777
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 1: even in that supposedly safe district that he jumped into.

778
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 1: And this is the dude who is supposed to be

779
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: leading Democratic efforts to hold the House and he's not

780
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: even able to shore up his own seat. Here, let's

781
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 1: go out and put five thirty eight up on the screen.

782
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 1: This is the race for the Senate. So previously Democratic

783
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: chances had gotten as high as seventy one percent. Now

784
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: they have dropped down to basically a coin flip. This

785
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 1: model says it. You know, Democrats, in fifty five out

786
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: of one hundred times they win the Senate. Republicans win

787
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: in forty five out of one hundred times. So a

788
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 1: really dramatic reversal and shift towards Republicans at this point.

789
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: And you know, I think if you just look at

790
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 1: history and you look at the top line numbers, you

791
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: think about how the presidence party, you know, when you're

792
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 1: in power, how they normally do in the midterms. You

793
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 1: think about how people feel about the economy. You think

794
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 1: about the reality of inflation, You think about gas prices

795
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: going back up, You think about how many people are

796
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,959
Speaker 1: saying the countries on the wrong track. No one should

797
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: be surprised by these results. No, it's not surprising. It

798
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: is really funny to watch. It's like something the vibe

799
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: shift happened in the media and they're like, oh, yeah,

800
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: inflation's bad, there's high crime, and all the fundamentals are

801
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: moving as Democrats and also there might actually be problems

802
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 1: with polling as they're having the Last Night right six years. Yeah,

803
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: so this picture, as like not good as it is

804
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: for Democrats is probably still overly rosie. Yeah. Oh absolutely, yeah.

805
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any possible I mean, and to me,

806
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 1: really crystal, the takeaway is those enthusiasm numbers that we

807
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,839
Speaker 1: continue to see, like some of the early vote and

808
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:08,919
Speaker 1: everything that we look at. Go and put the next

809
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 1: one up there on the screen, guys, because this is

810
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: what really matters in terms of his worst performing message.

811
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: They're really leaning into this, which is that the worst

812
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 1: performing message. Per Stan Greenberg, who's really been doing some

813
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: really excellent work he was on the Bill Clinton campaign,

814
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: actually recommend there's a documentary that followed the ninety two

815
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton campaign, of which Greenberg very prominently is in

816
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 1: I think it's on HBO. People should go and check

817
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 1: it out. They were following him when he was like

818
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: a third year candidate all the way up until he

819
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: won the president. So it's kind of the first like

820
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: Gonzo Doc, which was back anyway, it was in the nineties.

821
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 1: It was interesting for the fashion alone. But the point

822
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 1: is is that what Greenberg intuited at that time with

823
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: James Carville was the it's the economy stupid message that

824
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: ultimately won the ninety two election. And he is pointing

825
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 1: out that in all of his private polling that the

826
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 1: Democratic Party needs to quote shut up about any of

827
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: the work that it's done, because Biden, on all these

828
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 1: stump speeches, is like, look what I've done for you

829
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: with the Inflation Reduction Act, Look what I've done for

830
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: you with the Cares Act, you know, two years ago,

831
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 1: and voters are really like, what have you done for

832
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 1: me lately? Because right now my gas prices are high,

833
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: inflation is very high, and in the absence of any

834
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: message about what you're going to do to solve the problems,

835
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 1: instead of here's everything that I've done for you, the

836
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 1: GOP message of well, we're going to attack Biden's policies.

837
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,399
Speaker 1: Really it's a vacuum of only one side is saying

838
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 1: something that they're going to do. Now, maybe the wrong thing. Personally,

839
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 1: I think that it is well, I don't even think

840
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: there doesn't matter. They're really not even saying anything about

841
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,760
Speaker 1: what they're going to do. But when you're the party

842
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 1: in power, of course, if things aren't going well economically,

843
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: you're going to be like and you're not providing people

844
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 1: with like here's specifically what we will do and how

845
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 1: we will do it, and some sort of counter messaging,

846
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: then just by default Republicans are going to gain the

847
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: upper hand because they're not in power. I mean, that's

848
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: just the way that this thing works. So Greenberg has

849
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,240
Speaker 1: been out with you know, he did a more Perfect

850
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: Union video. There's a joint memo with him and some

851
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: others with the prospect. He is doing everything he can

852
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: to sound the alarm here and say you all are

853
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: screwing this up royally. And he doesn't mince words here either.

854
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 1: He says, I am stunned about how much of the

855
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 1: democratic commentariat is winging it. Republicans are hitting us on

856
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 1: crime and border and inflation. That has huge power, and

857
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 1: we have the self satisfied message of how much we've accomplished,

858
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: rather than being focused on what is happening to people.

859
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 1: He was asked if Biden himself perhaps had the message right.

860
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: He said, nope. I saw their visuals when they were

861
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: campaigning with the West in which they were talking about

862
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 1: helping families with high costs. So they made a turn

863
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: with addressing up. But they're also combining it with a

864
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 1: message of how great a job they are doing their elites.

865
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 1: They live in a world of college educated voters who

866
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: didn't have child tax credit as a lifeline. Greenberg thinks

867
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 1: that child tax credit, re upping the child tax credit

868
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: and paying for it by taxing the rich in his testing,

869
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 1: that is by far the best message the Democrats could

870
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: be running on. He says they didn't have that as

871
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 1: a lifeline. They think our own base responds to identity

872
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 1: politics rather than economics. If your goal is to win

873
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: an economic argument, go on, morning Joe. If the goal

874
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,280
Speaker 1: is to win an election, look at the fucking data

875
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: we have to say. So. I mean, and this is

876
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: a guy, I mean, he is not like an anti

877
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: establishment dude like us. This is a pure democratic operative

878
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: wants Democrats to win and is losing his mind over

879
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: how dumb they are in terms of their lack of

880
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: any sort of message on the economy. And you can

881
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 1: see how, you know, just sitting back and look at

882
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 1: all we've done for you, even like naming the Inflation

883
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 1: Reduction Act the Inflation Reduction Act was a stupid move

884
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: because when inflation then continues to go up, yeah, you

885
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:54,279
Speaker 1: can say, okay, it has this provision that as that

886
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 1: provision that's going to help people eventually. But people just

887
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: look at it and are like, you said, this was

888
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: your plan. That shit didn't work, so what now? And

889
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:03,919
Speaker 1: they have nothing to say about it, and it didn't

890
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: have anything to do with inflation. Like, let's be honest, really,

891
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 1: what it was is it was a climate bill, and

892
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: I think that's fine. I mean, if you mess climate

893
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: infrastructure bill, they could have run on it outs Like

894
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: the electric vehicle bill. They're like, hey, look like gas

895
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: is really high right now, we're going to try and

896
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 1: make it cheaper for everybody. These are some of the

897
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: subsidies that we're doing. We finally put technology neutral in

898
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 1: on nuclear. You know, there's there's a defense of the bill,

899
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 1: but it doesn't have anything to do with inflation unless

900
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: your name is Joe Manchin and you happen to have

901
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,359
Speaker 1: spent three hundred billion dollars on paying down debt even

902
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 1: though our interest rates are like sky high right now,

903
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 1: and it's not going to make a single difference. But

904
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: that's a discussion for another day. They box himself into

905
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: this problem and now they can't get out of it,

906
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,839
Speaker 1: and really it's their own making. That's why I don't

907
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 1: have a lot of sympathy. Greenberg is completely correct about

908
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: how exactly they should be running. And yet Crystal, you

909
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,000
Speaker 1: got a mailer at your house. Oh yeah, and what

910
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 1: is it? Yel Spamberger, Let me pull this, Let me

911
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 1: pull this bad boy up. So this is I live

912
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: in a swing district. At this point, it's been redistricted.

913
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: It used to be just hard conservative Rob Whitman, the

914
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: Republican incumbent. He's now been districted into a different area.

915
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: And so this is like, I don't know, it's like

916
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: Biden plus six something like that. This should be a

917
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 1: seat the Democrats, if they're going to hold onto the House,

918
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: they have to hold onto the seat. You have Abigail Spanburger,

919
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: who's the former CIA op, who is the Democrat she's

920
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,240
Speaker 1: an incumbent. And then you have yes le Vega, who's

921
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 1: actually a cop. So we have a lot of law

922
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: enforcement going on. And this is the mailer that they

923
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 1: were actually door knocking, that they've been handing out. So

924
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: a vote for Abigail Spanburger is a vote for abortion rights,

925
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 1: voting rights, and accountability whatever that means nothing? What does

926
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: that mean? Nothing about economics? You want to know something?

927
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 1: Not work, not even you know. She's actually span Burger

928
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 1: has actually been great on the staff Trading band. She's

929
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: one of the only people I've got all sorts of

930
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: other issues. She's one of the only people that seem

931
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: to actually care about this thing. I've been trying to

932
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 1: work across parts and lines to get it done. Doesn't

933
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 1: even say anything about that, Like that's actually good issue too,

934
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 1: you could talk about that, you can talk about you know, economics,

935
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: child tax credit. But she's one of these like corporate

936
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 1: centrist types, and so she doesn't actually believe in doing

937
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 1: anything for people. So she's leaning into abortion and voting

938
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: rights and good, look, you're right, she would be better

939
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 1: on sock ban. Yeah. Here in Northern Virginia, we have

940
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: somebody who Kara Lipsman, who's a Republican. Actually, all her

941
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: sign says is Kara Listman for Congress, and at the

942
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 1: top it says stand with Ukraine. And to be clear,

943
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: she is not going to have anything to do with

944
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: Ukraine should she actually win her seat. And she's a Republican,

945
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: she's a blue size. But this is like a very

946
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: liberal are so yeah, what I'm pointing out is that

947
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 1: this is what politics have gotten to now, voting rights,

948
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 1: abortion and stand with Ukraine, nothing having to do with

949
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 1: gas and inflation. I'm not saying I mean, listen, I'm

950
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 1: not saying those issues aren't important, that they don't have

951
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: a place right. But you, as Stan Greenberg says, a

952
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: look at the fucking data. Four months, people have been

953
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: saying I care about the economy, I care about inflation,

954
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 1: can about jobs. You have nothing to say to those people. Nothing,

955
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 1: And in fact, it's worse than that because when we'll

956
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: cover this in a little bit, but when people even

957
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 1: express like, hey, maybe you should have a message on

958
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: the economy because people seem concerned about that, you get

959
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 1: scorn and contempt. Scorn and contempt for voicing that people

960
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: have legitimate concerns in their day to day life in

961
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: like making ends meet, and maybe you should be responsive

962
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: to that as the supposedly party of the working class.

963
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: That's like, you know, not something you're supposed to say. Yeah. Actually,

964
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: there was a reporter, Hannah Trudeau, who we used to

965
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: have over Rising. Yeah, she put out a tweet which

966
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 1: said abortion as a closing pitch was always going to

967
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: be really risky proposition, but up against the economy, it

968
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: just makes it look fringe. Of course many people will disagree,

969
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 1: but the cost of gas is extremely important to nearly everyone.

970
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: Abortion is simply not absolute ratio to hell total pope

971
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 1: on the basically by the you know, quote unquote feminist

972
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 1: press who were like, how da you say that abortion

973
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: is not fringe? Like tell that to so and so

974
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 1: that we're not saying that, we're not saying it's fringe

975
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: that people would affects. What her point was is that

976
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 1: gas and inflation affects everyone, and so when you are

977
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,399
Speaker 1: going to run on something, you should try and run

978
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 1: on something that is going to appeal to the broadest

979
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: mass and also active vote, said voters who are affected

980
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 1: by abortion. I just thought it was remarkable that somebody

981
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: is offering a very frankly basic political insight. Right, it

982
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: took courage for her to even say that, and she

983
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 1: was piled I mean, I really am not exaggerating, like

984
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 1: the national political press made her out as like a

985
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: villain for saying this. And look, you know, they'll all

986
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:40,959
Speaker 1: find out the truth come November eighth. They can wish

987
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: it were otherwise, you know, they can wish that everybody

988
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 1: in the country is going to row row wrote their vote.

989
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:48,439
Speaker 1: But yeah, when gas prices are going up and people

990
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 1: are struggling with inflation and effectively getting a pay cut,

991
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: you know, every week, every month, and you're the party

992
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 1: in power, it's I just can't even begin to wrap

993
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 1: my head around the political failures that we are witnessing.

994
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 1: And you know, so the second part of this is

995
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: we early voting has started in a lot of states.

996
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 1: Now I have already voted myself, and people have really

997
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: changed their habits in terms of how they vote, you know,

998
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 1: post pandemic. This is another like major cultural shift post pandemic,

999
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: where huge numbers of people are now voting early and

1000
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 1: so far, from what we can tell, the turnout in

1001
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: this election is truly insane. Let's goad and put this

1002
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,240
Speaker 1: new York Times did an analysis here. They say voters

1003
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: stick to pandemic era habits and early turnout surges. More

1004
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 1: than five point five million people have already cast ballots

1005
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: in person or by mail. Experts predict high turnout in

1006
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 1: the midterm elections. Let me give you a few of

1007
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 1: the numbers that they pulled here just to underscore, and

1008
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 1: we covered the Georgia early voting numbers was continued to

1009
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:53,280
Speaker 1: be astonishing. In person turnout is up seventy percent compared

1010
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,800
Speaker 1: with the twenty eight twenty midterm elections, and that was

1011
00:51:55,840 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 1: a very high enthusiasm election cycle as well. In North Carolina,

1012
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 1: absen tee ballot requests are up one hundred and fourteen

1013
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 1: percent compared to twenty eighteen. In Florida, total early vote

1014
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 1: is up fifty percent compared with twenty eighteen. So you

1015
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 1: have in just state after state, a you know, really

1016
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 1: large enthusiasm for people are coming out in voting intros.

1017
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,359
Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. Now, if you read into this

1018
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: of like, Okay, well which party does this benefit? I

1019
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 1: think it's really anyone's guess at this point. So especially

1020
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 1: because you know twenty eighteen was different, that was before

1021
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: the pandemic, so how do you can't really compare to that?

1022
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 1: And then of course the comparison with twenty twenty is

1023
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: imperfect because that was the presidential election year, so that's

1024
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 1: a different story as well. So it's hard to know

1025
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,240
Speaker 1: exactly what to make of this, but they say nationally

1026
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 1: five and a half million voters had cast ballots as

1027
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 1: of Thursday. Democrats make up fifty one percent of those voters,

1028
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 1: Republicans make up thirty percent, and of course, you know,

1029
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: in the Trump error, Republicans more likely to vote on

1030
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,839
Speaker 1: election day because of all the fear mongering about you know,

1031
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 1: fake ballots and ballot harvesting and election fraud and all

1032
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 1: that stuff. He noted that was a slight dip from

1033
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: democrats advantage at this point in twenty twenty presidential election year,

1034
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 1: I always start as a higher turnout. At that point,

1035
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 1: seventeen point three million votes had been cast and the

1036
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: partisan split was fifty five percent and twenty six DEM

1037
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 1: and twenty six percent Republican. So this time it's fifty

1038
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,320
Speaker 1: one percent DEM thirty percent Republican. Then it was fifty

1039
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,880
Speaker 1: five percent DOM twenty six percent Republican. Of course, you

1040
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 1: have the complicating factor of Trump actively telling people don't

1041
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 1: vote by mail in that election, you don't have quite

1042
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 1: as direct and specific a message. So what do we

1043
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 1: make of it? I really don't know. I can just

1044
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 1: say that it looks like people are very enthusiastic about voting. Yeah,

1045
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 1: I think that's the only takeaway. And actually I remember

1046
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:48,919
Speaker 1: this in twenty twenty. Remember and everyone was like, see

1047
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 1: the show's a dem wave, and we were like, hey,

1048
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 1: just so you know, you don't know who these people are.

1049
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 1: They could be voting anyway. And as we found out,

1050
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 1: we had record high turnout in early vote, some of

1051
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: which was most kind of split towards the Dems, but

1052
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 1: it also presaged record turnout on election day itself. Yeah,

1053
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 1: many Republicans saying that they only wanted to vote in person,

1054
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: So that also come out what we're watching in November eight.

1055
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 1: What we found out in twenty twenty was, yeah, Democrats

1056
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 1: were super psyched about voting. They did show up early,

1057
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 1: they voted in droves, they cast their ballots you know,

1058
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 1: early in person, abb some tee ballots, all of that.

1059
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 1: But it turned out Republicans were also very enthusiastic, and

1060
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,240
Speaker 1: so Trump ended up winning more votes the second time around.

1061
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: It's just you know, Democrats were in independence, were sort

1062
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 1: of discussed with it was enough to barely be able

1063
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 1: to overtake him last time around. But you know, I

1064
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 1: do think we're seeing a similar dynamic here where And

1065
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 1: let's go and put this next piece up on the screen.

1066
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 1: NBC News has some new data here that underscores this point.

1067
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 1: Election interest is at an all time high for a

1068
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 1: mid term election. Seventy percent of registered voters are expressing

1069
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 1: high interests. Back in twenty eighteen, which again was another

1070
00:54:56,320 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 1: like very enthusiastic electorate, it was sixty five, so you

1071
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 1: have five points higher than back in twenty eighteen. But

1072
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 1: he notes Republicans have regained the enthusiasm edge. Seventy eight

1073
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: percent of Republicans have high interest. The number for Democrats

1074
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 1: is sixty nine percent, So seventy eight percent high interest

1075
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: for GOP, sixty nine percent for Democrats. And you know,

1076
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 1: on some of their other metrics, they have Republicans with

1077
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:25,360
Speaker 1: a very narrow lead in terms of the quote unquote

1078
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 1: generic ballot for congressional preference. If it's if you're just

1079
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:30,920
Speaker 1: looking at registered voters, and this is one of the

1080
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: things that's always interesting to note Dems have a one

1081
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 1: point lead forty seven to forty six, but when you

1082
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: look at likely voters, the Republicans take the lead forty

1083
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 1: eight forty seven. President Binds approval rating is basically stuck

1084
00:55:41,480 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 1: at forty five percent. That's where Trump's was and where

1085
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:47,800
Speaker 1: Obamas were when they had suffered their own midterm shill ackings. Essentially,

1086
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: So you know, it looks like people are very enthusiastic

1087
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:55,319
Speaker 1: to vote, but the fervor that came in the immediate

1088
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: wake of Dobbs and Row being overturned seems to have

1089
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 1: abated what I think high turn I think the election

1090
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,839
Speaker 1: is going to have extremely high turnout. And I guess

1091
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 1: if you're a Democrat trying to you know, say, Okay,

1092
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 1: it's going to be different. You know, look at how

1093
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 1: Democrats outperformed in these in these special elections. Look at

1094
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: how you know they've been doing well and continue to

1095
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: hold on in place like Ohio. I guess you could

1096
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 1: look at these numbers and maybe tell yourself like, oh,

1097
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 1: this is Democrats and young people surge into the polls

1098
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 1: that aren't even being captured in the polling. But history

1099
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 1: tells us I would be pretty skeptical of that notion. Yeah,

1100
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:30,360
Speaker 1: I agree, And also I think there's a great lesson

1101
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: from twenty twenty. What did we learn You can win

1102
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 1: ten million more votes as Donald J. Trump and still

1103
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 1: lose the election because tens of millions more will come

1104
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,880
Speaker 1: out for the other side. So it's very possible that

1105
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 1: there is a big bump for Democrats, for Roe versus

1106
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 1: from ro versus Wade. And it's also possible that that

1107
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: bump is still further eclipsed by a massive bump and

1108
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 1: realignment for Republicans with basically unactivated or hyperactivated voters who

1109
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,799
Speaker 1: come out even more so, so they're not mutually exclusive.

1110
00:56:57,840 --> 00:56:59,399
Speaker 1: I think in a way, a lot of analysts would

1111
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,240
Speaker 1: like to point out, well, you know, I kept saying

1112
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: a while back, like the more I look at the

1113
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:06,880
Speaker 1: macro picture, the more I feel like Republicans are going

1114
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 1: to wrong right, And the more you would look at

1115
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 1: the micro picture like herschel Walker and what that's going

1116
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 1: doctor Oz, a crew of Days, whatever, the more you're like,

1117
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 1: this is not looking so good. But what looks like

1118
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 1: is happening is Republican voters are coming home. Economic concerns

1119
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 1: and crime concerns are continuing to mount. The issues that

1120
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 1: were better for Democrats are starting to recede, and you know,

1121
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: we still have a few a couple weeks to go here.

1122
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is out being like, I think we're going

1123
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: to see another turn in this election, but this cake

1124
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 1: is pretty close to baked. I mean, we are really

1125
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 1: close to election day and people are already casting their

1126
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 1: ballots based on how they feel right now. So I

1127
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: think really Democrats have this was going to be a

1128
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 1: tough landscape for them, no doubt about it, no matter

1129
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: what they did. But they really screwed up their best

1130
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 1: chance to capitalize on where we are right now, which

1131
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 1: is leveling with the American people about the reality of

1132
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 1: the economy and having something really clear that they were

1133
00:58:04,840 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: selling to American people of what they would do if

1134
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 1: they were able to hold onto power, just like how

1135
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 1: Warnock and what's his face down there in Georgia. One

1136
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: what's his name? The other the other asso Off that's

1137
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 1: his name? That Just like they ran on two thousand

1138
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 1: dollars checks and were able to succeed with this, just

1139
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 1: like super concrete material politics, but they're not offering anything

1140
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 1: like that this time around. At the same time, there's

1141
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 1: a little bit of a wrench thrown in in terms

1142
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 1: of Biden's biggest, most direct economic program, which is the

1143
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 1: student debt relief. So let's go and put this first

1144
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,960
Speaker 1: part up on the screen. Court temporarily blocks Biden's student

1145
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 1: loan forgiveness. Now, there were a few different court decisions

1146
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 1: over the week, and I'll break all of them down

1147
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: for you. So there was a federal district court judge

1148
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:57,800
Speaker 1: in Missouri that initially ruled against this lawsuit, which was

1149
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: brought by six Republican led states challenging Biden's student debt

1150
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: relief program. A lot of people thought this was the

1151
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 1: one that was most likely to succeed. So the first

1152
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 1: thing that happened is a Missouri district court said, no,

1153
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 1: you don't have standing. Well, they went ahead and appealed,

1154
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 1: and at the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, they're the

1155
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 1: ones that said, you know what, we're going to issue

1156
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: an injunction blocking any student relief from student debt relief

1157
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 1: from going forward until we figure this thing out. So

1158
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 1: this is not like they're not saying the GOP states

1159
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:30,360
Speaker 1: are right. They're not saying they're going to side with them.

1160
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 1: They're just saying Hey, Biden administration, you can't relieve anyone's

1161
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:36,840
Speaker 1: debt until we figure this stuff out. So that's one

1162
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 1: of one piece. The other piece that a lot of

1163
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 1: people took note of is because there are multiple cases

1164
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 1: that are going through the court system right now having

1165
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 1: to do with this student loan debt relief program. So

1166
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 1: Amy Cony Barrett got and put this up on the screen,

1167
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 1: actually rejected a different request to block a Biden's student

1168
00:59:55,760 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 1: loan debt forgiveness program. She did this effectively on her own,

1169
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: because she's responsible for these types of applications from cases

1170
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 1: in the Seventh Circuit US Court of Appeals that includes Wisconsin.

1171
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 1: This particular suit was filed by a Wisconsin taxpayers group

1172
01:00:11,200 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 1: on Wednesday. There was no language here, there was no

1173
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 1: like long written whatever about why she blocked this from

1174
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 1: going forward. Could have just been based on lack of standing.

1175
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 1: That's probably the most likely thing. Maybe not necessarily on

1176
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 1: the merits, but noteworthy anyway that one of Trump's justices

1177
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 1: stepped in here on her own and was like no

1178
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: to this, particular to this particular student attempt to block

1179
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:40,480
Speaker 1: the program. The context of this is that you know,

1180
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 1: so far the app or the website in order to

1181
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:48,440
Speaker 1: apply for student loan death forgiveness has been flooded with applications.

1182
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 1: President Biden put this next peece up on the screen

1183
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 1: set on Friday. Twenty two million people have already registered,

1184
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 1: already signed up for student loan relief. I have to

1185
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:03,080
Speaker 1: give them credit. It's like remarkably different from the experience

1186
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 1: of Obamacare, where in the first day of the Obamacare

1187
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 1: website launching, do you know how many people were able

1188
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:12,400
Speaker 1: to actually get Obamacare? I remember it was a disaster.

1189
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 1: I can't remember six okay, very six people on the

1190
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 1: first sit Not six thousand, right, not six million, six people.

1191
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 1: There's actually in New York Times up ed about this.

1192
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:25,920
Speaker 1: IM pulling these numbers from But they did make this

1193
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 1: process really simple. All you need is your it's like

1194
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 1: your name, your address, your Social Security number, and it's

1195
01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 1: like one of the things and phone. You can do

1196
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: it on your phone. So people have really been flooding

1197
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:39,160
Speaker 1: this website with request. Twenty two million people have applied,

1198
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:41,280
Speaker 1: and now the courts are stepping in and saying you

1199
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 1: can't move forward with giving these people relief. The White

1200
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 1: House is asking go ahead and put k JP's statement here.

1201
01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 1: Statement by Pro Secretary cream John Pierre. They're saying today's

1202
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 1: temporary order does not prevent bars from applying for student

1203
01:01:55,800 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 1: debt relief at student dot gov. We encourage eligible bars

1204
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 1: to go ahead and join the twenty two million Americans

1205
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 1: who have already gone about this. It's also important to

1206
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 1: note the order does not reverse the trial court's dismissal

1207
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 1: of the case. That's what I was referencing before the

1208
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 1: Missouri District Court which dismissed the case. So you know,

1209
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: this is going to continue to work its way through

1210
01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 1: the courts. But that's where things stand today. Interestingly, to Sager,

1211
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:22,920
Speaker 1: neither party is running on this at all. Yeah, and

1212
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 1: it could end up being I mean, in my opinion,

1213
01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 1: especially for young voters who are like benefiting from this

1214
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 1: and are hard to turn out, this is a massive

1215
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,240
Speaker 1: missed opportunity for Democrats to actually show like, see, we

1216
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 1: actually did something for you that we said that we

1217
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 1: would do. Right. Well, I mean, it's a couple of things,

1218
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: so it could blunt turnout if people think that it's

1219
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 1: not real, or if they think it's because one of

1220
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:41,240
Speaker 1: the worst things you can do is promise somebody and

1221
01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 1: they end up and not come through that got to

1222
01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:44,560
Speaker 1: be a big problem. And that's part of the why

1223
01:02:44,640 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 1: when we talked about this, we're like, they chose that,

1224
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:49,600
Speaker 1: what was it? They chose like COVID Act. Yeah, So

1225
01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 1: just to explain the legal justification was they use like

1226
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:55,920
Speaker 1: a pandemic emergency power in the Heroes Act from like

1227
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 1: two thousand and one in order for the pretext for

1228
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:01,520
Speaker 1: this when they actually had a separate way legally that

1229
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 1: they could have pursued this at the court level. It's

1230
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 1: interesting because a lot of predictions said that the justices

1231
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 1: would reject the student debt case if a borrower or

1232
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:14,880
Speaker 1: a servicer were to bring it, Amy Cony Barrett dismissing

1233
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 1: that kind of putting that bed one to bed. But

1234
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,480
Speaker 1: this injunction at least gives some path forward in the

1235
01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:25,400
Speaker 1: federal court system that could ultimately lead to a reversal.

1236
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 1: And so if they didn't make sure, this is part

1237
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: of the reason why happened to the Trump people too,

1238
01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 1: on Dhaka, on the census, on a bunch of these things.

1239
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: When you don't actually and you kind of haphazardly do

1240
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:39,160
Speaker 1: something without any real legal pretext or justification, you leave

1241
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 1: yourself vulnerable to this and It also is just why

1242
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 1: like doing these things outside of legislation is just always

1243
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 1: so dicey, because it's like, unless you really have one

1244
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 1: percent clear authority, there is always some judge somewhere who

1245
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:54,080
Speaker 1: will disagree. Yeah, thrill the process and the chaos. I

1246
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 1: disagree with that though, because I think it's better. I mean,

1247
01:03:56,640 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 1: this is clarifying, right, because the Democrats, Biden, they're doing

1248
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 1: the thing, They're providing people relief, and it's very clear

1249
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:06,920
Speaker 1: who's trying to take it away. So I am very

1250
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 1: much in favor of, you know, using the executive powers

1251
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:12,400
Speaker 1: that are at your disppose almost be clear. I mean,

1252
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 1: presidents for a lot of years have done targeted student

1253
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 1: loan debt relief. They've just never done a program that

1254
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 1: is quite this size, which is why the legal rationale

1255
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 1: that they used was so perplexing. Right, because there's this

1256
01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:26,919
Speaker 1: other Higher Education Act I can't remember, nineteen something something

1257
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:30,000
Speaker 1: at sixty A, I don't remember, but in the Education y, Yeah,

1258
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 1: it's under the Department of Education, and that's what previous

1259
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 1: private presidents have always used. And obviously that's gone through

1260
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 1: with no problem. So it seems like it would have

1261
01:04:38,960 --> 01:04:41,480
Speaker 1: been harder for the courts to strike it down if

1262
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:43,720
Speaker 1: they had used that justification rather than this weird like

1263
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 1: it's a pandemic one. I've yet to see a legal

1264
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 1: analysis that makes sense to me of why they chose

1265
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 1: to go this route instead of the other one. So

1266
01:04:51,560 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 1: I have no idea why they ultimately made that choice.

1267
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 1: There must have been some rationale, but I really have

1268
01:04:56,960 --> 01:05:00,560
Speaker 1: yet to see what the rationale was. And listen. Ultimately,

1269
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 1: my view is that the courts are ideological partisan actors

1270
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 1: that they decide what they want the outcome to be,

1271
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 1: and then they like rig the judicial logic to try

1272
01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 1: to get there. But at the very least you could

1273
01:05:10,640 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 1: make it a little harder for it. Ultimately, Yeah, no, look,

1274
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 1: I mostly agree. I mean, I think the same is

1275
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 1: true with the left right. I've yet to see a

1276
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:21,960
Speaker 1: Hawaii judge that doesn't love striking down any restriction on immigration.

1277
01:05:22,320 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 1: The point being that whenever you throw it to the

1278
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:27,280
Speaker 1: courts in these systems, why I've always been an opponent

1279
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,439
Speaker 1: of it in this way is because then it gets

1280
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 1: all held up and then at the end of the day,

1281
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:34,680
Speaker 1: like there's some legal wrangling, and what if the justification

1282
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 1: on this comes out and nukes it for future generations,

1283
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:40,880
Speaker 1: and then you make it impossible to even pursue in

1284
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:43,320
Speaker 1: a different manner. So I'm more looking at it that way,

1285
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:45,440
Speaker 1: which is that and also politically, I mean, I just

1286
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 1: think it's bad whenever it actually destroys even more trust

1287
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 1: in an institution. When you promise people something and you

1288
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:52,840
Speaker 1: don't actually do it competently, it really does lead people

1289
01:05:52,880 --> 01:05:55,440
Speaker 1: to think that nothing is possible, when maybe it was

1290
01:05:55,520 --> 01:05:57,919
Speaker 1: if they just used a different legal predict. I looked

1291
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:00,400
Speaker 1: and asked too. By the way, nobody knows, Yeah, right,

1292
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:02,440
Speaker 1: it's a mysterys like well, I don't know, don't know

1293
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:05,120
Speaker 1: why they did it this way. Good job people. Okay,

1294
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 1: so last day started to get to you here, which

1295
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:11,000
Speaker 1: can ixts very much the mid term conversation. So White House.

1296
01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:14,920
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes they'll talk in plain terms about the

1297
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 1: reality of the economy, but they mostly want to sell

1298
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 1: their accomplishments. And there's a lot of actual like criticism

1299
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 1: of the media for being too hard on them in

1300
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:28,640
Speaker 1: terms of the economy, which, like, looking from my lens,

1301
01:06:28,640 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: I like, these people are almost always consistently your ally,

1302
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: So the idea they've been too hard on you in

1303
01:06:33,960 --> 01:06:36,880
Speaker 1: terms of the economic picture just it doesn't make sense.

1304
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:38,640
Speaker 1: It doesn't add up in terms of how they've been

1305
01:06:38,640 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 1: covering it either, But people are taking note of an

1306
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: interesting run. Clane retweets. Man speaks often by his likes

1307
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:46,720
Speaker 1: and his retweets. Let's go ahead and put this up

1308
01:06:46,720 --> 01:06:50,760
Speaker 1: on the screen. He's retweeting here economist Dean Baker, who

1309
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:52,920
Speaker 1: said it really takes some golf for the media to

1310
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 1: tell us that economy with three point five percent unemployment

1311
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:59,200
Speaker 1: is a disaster, and that was retweeted by White House

1312
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 1: Chief of Staff Ron Klayt. Now, I will grant you,

1313
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 1: it is a strange economy. It is a weird situation

1314
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 1: when you have unemployment that is so low. There are

1315
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,680
Speaker 1: a plethora, there are a lot of jobs. It just

1316
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 1: happens to be that a lot of those jobs won't

1317
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 1: allow you to pay rent and buy food. So that's

1318
01:07:17,080 --> 01:07:21,040
Speaker 1: why so many people are telling polsters that and anybody

1319
01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 1: who will listen, basically that the economy sucks, that they're struggling,

1320
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:27,080
Speaker 1: that they're like blowing through their savings, that they can't

1321
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:29,960
Speaker 1: get a break, that their wages are effectively going down,

1322
01:07:30,480 --> 01:07:33,800
Speaker 1: And you know, I think it's very revealing when probably

1323
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 1: the most influential person in the White House is basically

1324
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 1: continuing to be in denial about the economic hardship that

1325
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: people are facing right now, right and all of this, Actually,

1326
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:45,919
Speaker 1: this entire exchange is really revealing. Put this up there

1327
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 1: because it actually came from a CNN reporter, Andrew Kazinski.

1328
01:07:49,760 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 1: He tweeted, it's a midterm year and the party in

1329
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:54,240
Speaker 1: power typically loses seats, and people are more concerned right

1330
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:57,320
Speaker 1: now about crime, inflation in the economy. Dismissing people's real

1331
01:07:57,360 --> 01:07:59,959
Speaker 1: concerns isn't a way in order to win them over.

1332
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:03,400
Speaker 1: Dean Baker replied and said, don't jobs count as part

1333
01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 1: of the economy. It really takes golf for the media

1334
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 1: to tell us an economy is a disaster. But now

1335
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 1: we have always known, always that it is. The unemployment

1336
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:16,200
Speaker 1: rate is not a perfect reflection of the state of

1337
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:19,799
Speaker 1: the US economy, hence why the inflation numbers even exist.

1338
01:08:20,040 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 1: Just by the way, and the point is is that

1339
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 1: if the vast majority of people are having trouble making

1340
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:27,000
Speaker 1: ends meet, the savings rate is an all time low

1341
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:28,720
Speaker 1: and credit card rg is an all time high. Yeah,

1342
01:08:28,720 --> 01:08:30,800
Speaker 1: I would classify that as a disaster. I mean, yeah,

1343
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 1: it's probably better to have a job than no job

1344
01:08:33,280 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 1: in this economy, but that doesn't mean that you're flourishing

1345
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 1: whenever you do have that job. And by the way,

1346
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:43,720
Speaker 1: you know, the said, which encouraged by Biden and by

1347
01:08:43,760 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 1: the Republicans, by the way, is doing everything they can

1348
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:49,599
Speaker 1: to make sure that that unemployment number goes up so

1349
01:08:49,640 --> 01:08:52,760
Speaker 1: that you not only have inflation but also don't have

1350
01:08:52,800 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 1: a job. I mean, you have basically every analyst out

1351
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 1: there saying and a recession is a certainty at this point,

1352
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:02,840
Speaker 1: there's almost no avoiding it. And the Fed continues to

1353
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:05,400
Speaker 1: go in this direction, saying like wages are too high,

1354
01:09:05,479 --> 01:09:07,960
Speaker 1: even though wages are not keeping up with inflation, and

1355
01:09:08,280 --> 01:09:11,120
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is too low. That is their view

1356
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 1: of things, Like they are actively trying to make this

1357
01:09:13,520 --> 01:09:17,400
Speaker 1: already bad situation even worse. Something I'm going to be

1358
01:09:17,439 --> 01:09:20,640
Speaker 1: covering my monologue is the disastrous Republican plans which go

1359
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 1: even further in that direction. I have a lot of

1360
01:09:22,280 --> 01:09:25,519
Speaker 1: echoes with the catastrophe that unfold in the UK, but

1361
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:29,480
Speaker 1: I just I get so frustrated too with the idea

1362
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 1: that you know, these numbers on the economy of people

1363
01:09:32,200 --> 01:09:34,559
Speaker 1: saying feeling badly about it, and feeling negative about and

1364
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:37,880
Speaker 1: feeling their own situation is deteriorating, like this is just

1365
01:09:38,040 --> 01:09:41,720
Speaker 1: purely a media creation, as if people don't have experience

1366
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:44,679
Speaker 1: in their own lives of what it's like for them

1367
01:09:44,720 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 1: going to the grocery store, going to the gas pump,

1368
01:09:47,320 --> 01:09:49,880
Speaker 1: trying to make rent, trying to, you know, one day,

1369
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 1: at some point in their life, afford a house when

1370
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 1: housing affordability has never been more out of reach. These

1371
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:59,720
Speaker 1: are real issues, and you know that's why you are

1372
01:09:59,760 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 1: face in the polls is because you don't really understand that,

1373
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:06,160
Speaker 1: and you don't have any plan, at least not one

1374
01:10:06,160 --> 01:10:08,920
Speaker 1: that you've told the American people about to help them

1375
01:10:08,960 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 1: deal with their very concrete problems. Right, and so what

1376
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 1: is the White House doing? How exactly did they embrace

1377
01:10:14,320 --> 01:10:18,280
Speaker 1: this Twitter game? Well, our producer James Eagle Eye spotted

1378
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:21,120
Speaker 1: this while the White House, she of a staff was

1379
01:10:21,160 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 1: doing this. It turns out who the White House recently invited.

1380
01:10:24,720 --> 01:10:29,200
Speaker 1: So you'll see here that one Twitter user, Muller, she wrote,

1381
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:31,040
Speaker 1: who you may know is one of the most cringe

1382
01:10:31,040 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 1: accounts that exists, posted a photo of a bunch of

1383
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:38,040
Speaker 1: resistance liberal accounts that were present at the White House

1384
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:41,680
Speaker 1: that got themselves sit downs with President Biden doing like

1385
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:45,280
Speaker 1: a now this interview or whatever it was. I did

1386
01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 1: them in the picture. What they are some of these others. Anyway,

1387
01:10:48,120 --> 01:10:50,519
Speaker 1: The point is is that pictured here are some of

1388
01:10:50,560 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 1: the most insufferable people on all of Twitter. Brooklyn Dad,

1389
01:10:54,520 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 1: defiant brook first, Whisper, that second hobbyist Rachel Vinman, whose

1390
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:03,599
Speaker 1: husband was the whistleblower. That's one way to put it.

1391
01:11:03,800 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 1: The midast touch guys who were you know, some of

1392
01:11:06,920 --> 01:11:09,640
Speaker 1: the people who tried to cancel Joe Rogan. Just some

1393
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:13,040
Speaker 1: of the worst people online. And I really keep them

1394
01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:15,200
Speaker 1: at the White House. They stopped tweeting, I personally would

1395
01:11:15,240 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 1: love of course, while they were there, you know, everyone

1396
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:19,040
Speaker 1: was blasting it out. And I have no problem with

1397
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:21,000
Speaker 1: the White House inviting allies. I just think it's very

1398
01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:22,920
Speaker 1: telling that these are the allies they choose to align

1399
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:25,639
Speaker 1: with right ahead of the election. Who these are exactly

1400
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:28,840
Speaker 1: by the way, the accounts which surface these types of

1401
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: attacks against reporters for pointing out the most obvious thing,

1402
01:11:32,200 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 1: which is the voters say the economy is bad. That's it.

1403
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:37,640
Speaker 1: The best part is that's descriptive they're not even like

1404
01:11:37,680 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 1: I agree, they're like, well, many voters say the economy

1405
01:11:40,160 --> 01:11:42,680
Speaker 1: is bad. It takes some gall for the voters to

1406
01:11:42,720 --> 01:11:45,599
Speaker 1: think that. So these are the people who they invited.

1407
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:48,519
Speaker 1: You can wish reality was otherwise, or you could actually

1408
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:51,200
Speaker 1: freaking do something about the reality. I wish it would

1409
01:11:51,200 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 1: exist in since you have power. Very true, All right, zacher,

1410
01:11:57,040 --> 01:11:58,680
Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Well? There's been a lot

1411
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 1: of attention paid to the CCP in the last several months,

1412
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:04,280
Speaker 1: as Shishinping carefully choreographed the latest party congress where he

1413
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:07,439
Speaker 1: proclaimed leader of China for life. The incident which has

1414
01:12:07,439 --> 01:12:09,840
Speaker 1: gotten the most attention, which he covered here, was the

1415
01:12:09,960 --> 01:12:12,760
Speaker 1: escorting a former president Hu Jintao out of the room.

1416
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:15,240
Speaker 1: But what I've been paying closer attention to is not

1417
01:12:15,439 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 1: Ji but the people around him, the people who are

1418
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:20,840
Speaker 1: assuming power and what they believe. One of the great

1419
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:23,840
Speaker 1: misconceptions about China is that it's a total dictatorship of

1420
01:12:23,920 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 1: one man. It is a total dictatorship, but it is

1421
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:28,920
Speaker 1: much more like the former Soviet Union, where the government

1422
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:31,400
Speaker 1: has all consuming power, but is also divided up into

1423
01:12:31,439 --> 01:12:35,720
Speaker 1: very complex factions, each with their own agendas, ideologies, and worldviews.

1424
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:38,640
Speaker 1: In the Cold War, we used to call that Kremlinology,

1425
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:42,040
Speaker 1: intense analysis by the Western press into the individual outlooks

1426
01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 1: of important politic buera members. It wouldn't be uncommon actually

1427
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:47,600
Speaker 1: for average Americans who read the papers in the fifties

1428
01:12:47,720 --> 01:12:50,200
Speaker 1: to know the names of senior polt buera members. And

1429
01:12:50,240 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 1: for some reason, though, we don't seem to do the

1430
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:54,400
Speaker 1: same with China, even though it is many times more

1431
01:12:54,439 --> 01:12:57,160
Speaker 1: powerful than the Soviet Union ever was, and obviously is

1432
01:12:57,160 --> 01:12:59,400
Speaker 1: a far more competent state. So I thought I would

1433
01:12:59,439 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 1: highlight a sent figure for all of you, who, perhaps

1434
01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:05,559
Speaker 1: more than Chishingping himself, embodies how Chinese elites think about

1435
01:13:05,640 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 1: us and the danger it will pose in the future

1436
01:13:08,000 --> 01:13:10,280
Speaker 1: to the globe. I was inspired to do this monologue

1437
01:13:10,280 --> 01:13:12,360
Speaker 1: after seeing the news from the South China Morning Post.

1438
01:13:12,720 --> 01:13:17,400
Speaker 1: Chinese ideologies are Wang hu Ning, an already existing member

1439
01:13:17,439 --> 01:13:19,720
Speaker 1: of the Polar Bureau Standing Committee, is going to be

1440
01:13:19,760 --> 01:13:23,800
Speaker 1: promoted to officially head the Nationals People's Congress. Wang is

1441
01:13:23,840 --> 01:13:26,640
Speaker 1: already number five in the CCP pecking order, but the

1442
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:29,840
Speaker 1: latest promotion effectively makes him number two or three, with

1443
01:13:30,000 --> 01:13:33,400
Speaker 1: even more control over party affairs. It's a random name

1444
01:13:33,479 --> 01:13:35,679
Speaker 1: to see unless you know a little bit about him

1445
01:13:35,720 --> 01:13:38,080
Speaker 1: which I happened to, and I'm personally terrified to see this.

1446
01:13:38,920 --> 01:13:40,960
Speaker 1: Ever since I read a profile of Wang hu Ning

1447
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:43,960
Speaker 1: last year and his musings about China and the United States,

1448
01:13:44,080 --> 01:13:46,400
Speaker 1: I've been very worried that he will assume even more power.

1449
01:13:46,680 --> 01:13:49,519
Speaker 1: Wang is already the architect of the CCP's stated plans

1450
01:13:49,600 --> 01:13:52,280
Speaker 1: from the Chinese Dream, the One Belt, One Road initiative

1451
01:13:52,400 --> 01:13:55,439
Speaker 1: made in China twenty twenty five and Shishingping thought the

1452
01:13:55,439 --> 01:13:59,480
Speaker 1: fusion of traditional Chinese communism was Shishingping's cult of personality.

1453
01:13:59,760 --> 01:14:03,240
Speaker 1: Wang was forced forged in the chaos of the Cultural Revolution,

1454
01:14:03,520 --> 01:14:06,000
Speaker 1: and he exited college with the central idea that a

1455
01:14:06,040 --> 01:14:09,200
Speaker 1: society must be controlled at all levels. In his game

1456
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:12,400
Speaker 1: changing essay titled the Structure of China's Changing Political Climate,

1457
01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:15,960
Speaker 1: he wrote that the CCP must quote urgently consider how

1458
01:14:16,000 --> 01:14:20,200
Speaker 1: society's software, its cultural values, attitudes, and shapes their political

1459
01:14:20,240 --> 01:14:23,920
Speaker 1: destiny as much as its quote hardware like economic systems

1460
01:14:23,920 --> 01:14:27,320
Speaker 1: and institutions. He wrote in nineteen eighty eight, breaking from

1461
01:14:27,320 --> 01:14:30,240
Speaker 1: the prevailing consensus in China, he said that socialism with

1462
01:14:30,320 --> 01:14:34,040
Speaker 1: Chinese characteristics was nothing more than a quote materially oriented

1463
01:14:34,080 --> 01:14:38,320
Speaker 1: culture and he decried a break from collectivist culture to individualism.

1464
01:14:38,600 --> 01:14:41,880
Speaker 1: Wang wrote that in essential that a modern China break

1465
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:44,320
Speaker 1: from the classic and modern values of the West and

1466
01:14:44,400 --> 01:14:47,120
Speaker 1: must forge its own core values. And it was in

1467
01:14:47,160 --> 01:14:49,240
Speaker 1: the same year that he decided to set out to

1468
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:51,880
Speaker 1: create them. He wanted to start in the country which

1469
01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 1: he viewed himself as an opponent of. He traveled to

1470
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:57,799
Speaker 1: the United States in nineteen eighty eight and he embarked

1471
01:14:57,800 --> 01:15:00,160
Speaker 1: on a national tour in here in the US of

1472
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 1: more than thirty cities and more than twenty universities, and

1473
01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:06,320
Speaker 1: he eventually compiled his observations into a book. It's titled

1474
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:10,680
Speaker 1: America Against America, and it was written in nineteen ninety one.

1475
01:15:10,760 --> 01:15:13,400
Speaker 1: The observations of the book, especially considering it was written

1476
01:15:13,400 --> 01:15:16,160
Speaker 1: before I was even born, are shocking. Wang writes that

1477
01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:20,080
Speaker 1: quote America faces an unstopped undercurrent of crisis produced by

1478
01:15:20,080 --> 01:15:23,880
Speaker 1: its societal contradictions between rich and poor, white and black,

1479
01:15:23,920 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 1: democratic and oligarchic power. He says that Americans are not

1480
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:29,880
Speaker 1: blind and can see their social and cultural problems, but

1481
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:31,880
Speaker 1: their issue is they tend to think of them as

1482
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 1: scientific or technological problems that can be solved. He says Ultimately,

1483
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:38,800
Speaker 1: America will fail because all of our problems stem from

1484
01:15:38,800 --> 01:15:42,800
Speaker 1: the same rot quote. A radical nihilistic individualism at the

1485
01:15:42,800 --> 01:15:46,920
Speaker 1: heart of American individualism, he writes. Quote in the American system,

1486
01:15:46,960 --> 01:15:50,599
Speaker 1: everything has a dual nature. The glamour of high commodification abounds.

1487
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:54,320
Speaker 1: Human flesh, sex, knowledge, politics, power, the law can all

1488
01:15:54,360 --> 01:15:57,840
Speaker 1: become the target of commodification. This commodification, in many ways

1489
01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:01,320
Speaker 1: corrupt society and leads to a number of serious social problems.

1490
01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:04,400
Speaker 1: He adds in the end, the American economic system has

1491
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:08,880
Speaker 1: created human loneliness as its foremost product, along with spectacular inequality.

1492
01:16:09,080 --> 01:16:12,160
Speaker 1: As a result, nihilism has become the American way. It

1493
01:16:12,240 --> 01:16:14,320
Speaker 1: is a fatal shock to the cultural development and the

1494
01:16:14,320 --> 01:16:18,639
Speaker 1: American spirit. Wang eventually concludes two things. America cannot solve

1495
01:16:18,680 --> 01:16:20,840
Speaker 1: its own problems, and China must do everything in its

1496
01:16:20,880 --> 01:16:24,200
Speaker 1: power to resist and supplant the West. Wang's book hit

1497
01:16:24,360 --> 01:16:27,040
Speaker 1: right after the Tianeman Square Masacer in nineteen eighty nine,

1498
01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:29,719
Speaker 1: when the CCP fully embraced its role as the keeper

1499
01:16:29,720 --> 01:16:32,280
Speaker 1: of the party for eternity, not of the people, and

1500
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:35,640
Speaker 1: from there his career took off. He became the consequiary

1501
01:16:35,760 --> 01:16:38,920
Speaker 1: to three successive Chinese presidents and is nearly thirty years

1502
01:16:38,920 --> 01:16:42,759
Speaker 1: in power. Wang is consistently rallied against westernization of China,

1503
01:16:42,960 --> 01:16:45,879
Speaker 1: from banning socially undesirable trends on their version of TikTok

1504
01:16:46,080 --> 01:16:49,040
Speaker 1: to heavily censoring their internet promoting values on their tech

1505
01:16:49,040 --> 01:16:52,639
Speaker 1: platforms that comply only with the CCP. Wang was mostly

1506
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:55,599
Speaker 1: in the minority of his view until one xijingp Shing

1507
01:16:55,760 --> 01:16:59,280
Speaker 1: Xijingping came into long in power in twenty twelve, and

1508
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:02,360
Speaker 1: since then they have fit hand in glove. China's moves

1509
01:17:02,400 --> 01:17:05,679
Speaker 1: to ban gaming at night censors people heavily embrace zero

1510
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:08,479
Speaker 1: COVID despite its economic costs. It all stems from the

1511
01:17:08,479 --> 01:17:14,640
Speaker 1: same session control of the population, expunging westernized notions of individuality, capitalism,

1512
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:17,840
Speaker 1: any rival center of power outside of the government. It

1513
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 1: is this central view which guides Wang by extension GI

1514
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:25,360
Speaker 1: as they enter this unprecedented situation, two rival superpowers with

1515
01:17:25,400 --> 01:17:28,200
Speaker 1: the capability to destroy the world many times over, with

1516
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:31,360
Speaker 1: completely different visions of the world and their own societies,

1517
01:17:31,360 --> 01:17:34,519
Speaker 1: and how they should even look to me. His ascension

1518
01:17:34,560 --> 01:17:37,240
Speaker 1: to near total power shows us that at the very least,

1519
01:17:37,479 --> 01:17:41,000
Speaker 1: the old dream is dead. Any notion of economic ties.

1520
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:45,000
Speaker 1: Doing anything to turn China away from authoritarianism is fantasy.

1521
01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:48,240
Speaker 1: The longer we pretend that ties between our two countries

1522
01:17:48,280 --> 01:17:51,920
Speaker 1: economically are mutually beneficial in any way, the more we

1523
01:17:52,000 --> 01:17:55,640
Speaker 1: fulfill the old prophetic quote of Vladimir Lenin that capitalists

1524
01:17:55,680 --> 01:17:57,519
Speaker 1: will sell the communists the rope which with the way

1525
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:00,240
Speaker 1: they will hang us. They have a very clear idea

1526
01:18:00,280 --> 01:18:02,160
Speaker 1: of who they are, of who they want to be,

1527
01:18:02,439 --> 01:18:05,439
Speaker 1: and a world which allows them to do whatever they want. We,

1528
01:18:05,600 --> 01:18:10,519
Speaker 1: by contrast, only have fulfilled Wang's prophecy a radically individualistic society,

1529
01:18:10,680 --> 01:18:13,960
Speaker 1: incapable of solving or even paying attention to its worst pathologies.

1530
01:18:14,080 --> 01:18:16,920
Speaker 1: As we eat each other alive, perhaps we have enough

1531
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:19,559
Speaker 1: time to turn it around. We certainly have in the past,

1532
01:18:19,840 --> 01:18:21,439
Speaker 1: but it's a hell of a gamble when you face

1533
01:18:21,479 --> 01:18:24,760
Speaker 1: adversaries as powerful and aspression as Wang Hu Ning. I

1534
01:18:24,840 --> 01:18:27,519
Speaker 1: just think what he wrote in ninety one is crazy fascinating. Yeah,

1535
01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:29,160
Speaker 1: it's amazing, I mean, And if you want to hear

1536
01:18:29,400 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 1: my reaction to Sagres's monologue, become a premium subscriber today

1537
01:18:33,000 --> 01:18:38,200
Speaker 1: at Breakingpoints dot com. Christal, what are you take a

1538
01:18:38,240 --> 01:18:40,799
Speaker 1: look at? Well, Guys, last week we covered the stunning

1539
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:43,599
Speaker 1: breaking news that UK Prime Minister Liz Trust was out

1540
01:18:43,640 --> 01:18:46,479
Speaker 1: after just six weeks in office. That makes her the

1541
01:18:46,640 --> 01:18:49,920
Speaker 1: shortest serving prime minister in all of UK history. Wasn't

1542
01:18:49,960 --> 01:18:52,719
Speaker 1: really even close. Why was she forced now, We'll simply

1543
01:18:52,760 --> 01:18:55,840
Speaker 1: put she went whole hog on that market fundamentals and

1544
01:18:55,880 --> 01:18:58,280
Speaker 1: we were just talking about right onto the gates and

1545
01:18:58,320 --> 01:19:03,760
Speaker 1: her much revered markets revolted in catastrophic fashion. Truss, who

1546
01:19:03,840 --> 01:19:06,920
Speaker 1: was obsessed with Margaret Thatcher to such a degree she

1547
01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:10,880
Speaker 1: would intentionally, in very cringey fashion, imitate her dress in

1548
01:19:10,920 --> 01:19:15,120
Speaker 1: a cartoonish way. She also imitated Thatcher's economic policies in

1549
01:19:15,160 --> 01:19:18,240
Speaker 1: a sort of cartoonish way, slashing taxes on the rich,

1550
01:19:18,520 --> 01:19:21,599
Speaker 1: halting a planned corporate tax rise, even lifting a cap

1551
01:19:21,640 --> 01:19:26,240
Speaker 1: on banker bonuses. The results were immediate, and they were catastrophic.

1552
01:19:26,479 --> 01:19:29,160
Speaker 1: The pound crashed, the cost for the government to borrow spiked.

1553
01:19:29,360 --> 01:19:32,439
Speaker 1: This triggered follow on effects alike for large pension funds.

1554
01:19:32,479 --> 01:19:34,439
Speaker 1: They started to face margin calls and were faced with

1555
01:19:34,479 --> 01:19:37,200
Speaker 1: the prospect of having to fire sale their assets. The

1556
01:19:37,240 --> 01:19:39,479
Speaker 1: Bank of England had to swoop in with what was

1557
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:43,599
Speaker 1: essentially a bailout. Before the Trust government was forced to

1558
01:19:43,680 --> 01:19:47,599
Speaker 1: backtrack and scrapped the whole plan. Never has a reckoning

1559
01:19:47,760 --> 01:19:51,200
Speaker 1: on an economic program been so swift and so thorough.

1560
01:19:51,479 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 1: Whatever upsize this sort of supply side ideology might have

1561
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:56,479
Speaker 1: been able to accrue in these seventies and eighties, those

1562
01:19:56,520 --> 01:20:00,080
Speaker 1: have long since been claimed. Now this agenda is nothing

1563
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:03,960
Speaker 1: but a loser driving wild inequality, financial rigging, an instant

1564
01:20:04,040 --> 01:20:08,400
Speaker 1: or medium term calamity. But guests, who has one hundred

1565
01:20:08,400 --> 01:20:11,640
Speaker 1: percent not learned this lesson at all? That would be

1566
01:20:11,640 --> 01:20:14,519
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. In spite of making some noises about

1567
01:20:14,520 --> 01:20:16,360
Speaker 1: a new economic approach in the early days of the

1568
01:20:16,400 --> 01:20:20,560
Speaker 1: Trump years, they are still trying to cartoonishly resuscitate Reaganomics

1569
01:20:20,640 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 1: in the exact same manner as Trust was trying to

1570
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:27,759
Speaker 1: bring back zombie Thatcherism, Reagan's counterpart part, of course, across

1571
01:20:27,760 --> 01:20:31,639
Speaker 1: the pond, courting disaster with a catastrophic plan that sounds

1572
01:20:31,720 --> 01:20:34,439
Speaker 1: a lot like the one Trust used to tank the

1573
01:20:34,439 --> 01:20:36,960
Speaker 1: British economy. Don't take my word for it, listen to

1574
01:20:36,960 --> 01:20:40,559
Speaker 1: one of the biggest cheerleaders for zombie Reaganism around the

1575
01:20:40,600 --> 01:20:44,599
Speaker 1: one and only, Larry Cutlow. The US midterm elections cavalry

1576
01:20:45,120 --> 01:20:49,759
Speaker 1: arrived early in London. What do I mean by that? Well,

1577
01:20:49,800 --> 01:20:52,679
Speaker 1: the new British Prime Minister Liz Trust has laid out

1578
01:20:52,720 --> 01:20:56,519
Speaker 1: a terrific supply side economic growth plan which looks a

1579
01:20:56,560 --> 01:20:59,680
Speaker 1: lot like the basic thrust of Kevin McCarthy's commitment to

1580
01:20:59,800 --> 01:21:03,640
Speaker 1: him America plan. Let's start with Trust. She is slashing

1581
01:21:03,720 --> 01:21:07,840
Speaker 1: tax rates and deregulating energy. I just love it. That's

1582
01:21:07,880 --> 01:21:11,160
Speaker 1: the liberal business media. This is from wonderful the liberal

1583
01:21:11,200 --> 01:21:13,880
Speaker 1: business media. You know what I'm talking about, is now

1584
01:21:14,000 --> 01:21:17,840
Speaker 1: trashing her plan. That tells me Trust has it exactly right.

1585
01:21:18,240 --> 01:21:21,360
Speaker 1: By the way, Liz Trust is basically operating a rag

1586
01:21:21,600 --> 01:21:25,719
Speaker 1: that'cher trump economic policy. I love how much is revealed

1587
01:21:25,800 --> 01:21:28,680
Speaker 1: by Kudlow, who was one of Trump's top economic advisors,

1588
01:21:29,040 --> 01:21:32,200
Speaker 1: admitting that Trump's economic policy ended up just being the

1589
01:21:32,240 --> 01:21:35,880
Speaker 1: same old, same old Reagan market fundamentalism that the GOP

1590
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:39,120
Speaker 1: has fully embraced in the times, have mostly embraced for

1591
01:21:39,160 --> 01:21:41,439
Speaker 1: more than forty years. Let's do tax guests for the

1592
01:21:41,520 --> 01:21:45,600
Speaker 1: rich plus moral outrage, culture war panic attacks. How original.

1593
01:21:45,840 --> 01:21:47,400
Speaker 1: But the part I really want to focus on today

1594
01:21:47,439 --> 01:21:50,439
Speaker 1: because it has immediate potential consequences for us, is the

1595
01:21:50,439 --> 01:21:53,120
Speaker 1: fact that the GOP is actively threatening America with the

1596
01:21:53,160 --> 01:21:55,600
Speaker 1: same calamitous fate as Britain if they are able to

1597
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:58,040
Speaker 1: win in the midterms. After all, they have, in fact,

1598
01:21:58,080 --> 01:22:00,679
Speaker 1: against all better judgment, released their place and for governance.

1599
01:22:00,720 --> 01:22:03,439
Speaker 1: And astonishingly, it might even be worse than what Trust

1600
01:22:03,479 --> 01:22:07,679
Speaker 1: had planned, because unlike her whose ideological fervor accidentally caused

1601
01:22:07,680 --> 01:22:11,840
Speaker 1: a crisis, the Republicans are actively intentionally planning a crisis.

1602
01:22:11,960 --> 01:22:14,120
Speaker 1: That is literally what they're saying out loud. Just take

1603
01:22:14,160 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 1: a look. Here, here's the headline from the Washington Post

1604
01:22:16,120 --> 01:22:19,719
Speaker 1: quote GOP to use debt limit to for spending cuts,

1605
01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:22,599
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy says. McCarthy, of course, would be the speaker

1606
01:22:22,640 --> 01:22:25,960
Speaker 1: if GOP takes control. So you get that they want

1607
01:22:26,000 --> 01:22:28,800
Speaker 1: to use the debt ceiling in order to tank the

1608
01:22:29,000 --> 01:22:32,559
Speaker 1: entire economy, hostage and threaten it if they don't get

1609
01:22:32,560 --> 01:22:35,960
Speaker 1: their way on their own liszt Trustyle agenda, an engineered

1610
01:22:36,000 --> 01:22:39,360
Speaker 1: fiscal crisis at a time of such economic procarity, with

1611
01:22:39,479 --> 01:22:42,800
Speaker 1: a full recession nearly certain, is exactly the type of

1612
01:22:42,840 --> 01:22:47,280
Speaker 1: own goal that could spell complete disaster. After all, the

1613
01:22:47,400 --> 01:22:49,720
Speaker 1: escalating crisis of the Trust budget was caused by a

1614
01:22:49,840 --> 01:22:52,920
Speaker 1: massive increase in the cost for the government to borrow.

1615
01:22:53,520 --> 01:22:56,400
Speaker 1: That spiking government borrowing costs caused pension funds to collapse.

1616
01:22:56,400 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 1: That pension fund collapse nearly triggered a wholesale British economic despit.

1617
01:23:00,720 --> 01:23:03,760
Speaker 1: The lesson here is that markets are very complex. They

1618
01:23:03,760 --> 01:23:07,439
Speaker 1: are very interconnected in ways that literally no one actually

1619
01:23:07,439 --> 01:23:10,320
Speaker 1: has a complete picture of what would be the cascading

1620
01:23:10,320 --> 01:23:13,479
Speaker 1: effects of a debt sealing showdown or an actual debt

1621
01:23:13,479 --> 01:23:16,720
Speaker 1: sealing default. No one knows, and I don't know about you,

1622
01:23:16,840 --> 01:23:19,360
Speaker 1: but I would really rather not find out. But that's

1623
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:21,800
Speaker 1: not all, because what the GOP wants is to use

1624
01:23:21,840 --> 01:23:25,400
Speaker 1: that debt sealing crisis to extract more tax cuts for

1625
01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:29,439
Speaker 1: the rich and for corporations. Once again, sounds just like

1626
01:23:29,439 --> 01:23:32,439
Speaker 1: their apparent queen here, Liz Trust. For all they're crying

1627
01:23:32,439 --> 01:23:35,240
Speaker 1: about deficits and inflation when it comes to busting the

1628
01:23:35,240 --> 01:23:38,360
Speaker 1: budget on behalf of the rich, Republicans here really are

1629
01:23:38,439 --> 01:23:41,400
Speaker 1: all in. They want to permanently lock in the Trump

1630
01:23:41,439 --> 01:23:44,080
Speaker 1: tax cuts for the wealthy and for corporations. They even

1631
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:47,600
Speaker 1: want to add back in some more loopholes for corporations

1632
01:23:47,600 --> 01:23:51,680
Speaker 1: to exploit so they can pay even less in taxes.

1633
01:23:52,000 --> 01:23:55,200
Speaker 1: According to Trump advisor and radical market fundamentalists even more.

1634
01:23:55,280 --> 01:23:58,360
Speaker 1: Quote this will be a central driving theme of the

1635
01:23:58,400 --> 01:24:03,120
Speaker 1: Republican Congress. Make those tax cuts permanent. Just the corporate

1636
01:24:03,200 --> 01:24:06,759
Speaker 1: tax cuts alone that the Republicans are pushing would cost

1637
01:24:07,080 --> 01:24:10,280
Speaker 1: more than Biden's student loan debt relief that they all

1638
01:24:10,280 --> 01:24:12,360
Speaker 1: had a panic attack over how all that spending would

1639
01:24:12,360 --> 01:24:15,439
Speaker 1: blow up the deficeit and fuel inflation. And remember, the

1640
01:24:15,560 --> 01:24:19,640
Speaker 1: large driver of inflation is actually corporate profiteering. Fifty two

1641
01:24:19,680 --> 01:24:22,320
Speaker 1: percent of inflation during the pandemic was because of corporate

1642
01:24:22,320 --> 01:24:25,080
Speaker 1: price gouging. So they're not only spending a bunch on

1643
01:24:25,160 --> 01:24:28,200
Speaker 1: rich people, but they're rewarding the very villains who are

1644
01:24:28,200 --> 01:24:32,360
Speaker 1: responsible for spiking your prices. Not only are they committed

1645
01:24:32,400 --> 01:24:34,559
Speaker 1: to making life easier for the rich, they're committed to

1646
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:37,720
Speaker 1: making life harder for you. McCarthy has kept cuts to

1647
01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:40,880
Speaker 1: Social Security and Medicare on the table. Other Republicans, including

1648
01:24:40,880 --> 01:24:44,160
Speaker 1: Center Ron Johnson Senator Rick Scott, have already floated cuts

1649
01:24:44,200 --> 01:24:47,320
Speaker 1: to the program or even sunsetting them altogether. Not that

1650
01:24:47,439 --> 01:24:50,439
Speaker 1: any of that should be surprising, since Republicans have been

1651
01:24:50,439 --> 01:24:53,040
Speaker 1: looking for ways to undermine or cut these programs basically

1652
01:24:53,120 --> 01:24:57,200
Speaker 1: since their inception. Debt ceiling crisis, massive spending on the rich,

1653
01:24:57,479 --> 01:25:00,519
Speaker 1: cuts to social security and medicare rewarding the price cougars.

1654
01:25:00,680 --> 01:25:06,360
Speaker 1: This is all pure economic insanity, trusts calamity, economics on steroids.

1655
01:25:06,560 --> 01:25:08,719
Speaker 1: And although they don't talk about it much and Democrats

1656
01:25:08,760 --> 01:25:12,000
Speaker 1: foolishly have said basically nothing about it, this is exactly

1657
01:25:12,040 --> 01:25:14,080
Speaker 1: the agenda that is on tap if the GOP wins

1658
01:25:14,120 --> 01:25:15,400
Speaker 1: control of the House and the Senate, which at this

1659
01:25:15,400 --> 01:25:20,160
Speaker 1: point seems quite likely. Just as Brexit foreshadowed, Trump Trust's

1660
01:25:20,240 --> 01:25:25,040
Speaker 1: economic disaster could foreshadow our own an engineered crisis of

1661
01:25:25,040 --> 01:25:28,840
Speaker 1: epic proportions, but this time with politicians so foolish and

1662
01:25:28,880 --> 01:25:31,920
Speaker 1: so lacking in any accountability that they are unlikely to

1663
01:25:31,960 --> 01:25:35,880
Speaker 1: reverse course even if catastrophe does in fact Zu good

1664
01:25:35,960 --> 01:25:38,920
Speaker 1: luck America. And you know this is kind of playing

1665
01:25:38,920 --> 01:25:40,439
Speaker 1: in the background. And if you want to hear my

1666
01:25:40,600 --> 01:25:43,960
Speaker 1: reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at

1667
01:25:43,960 --> 01:25:49,599
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot Com. We're going to do a breaking news

1668
01:25:49,600 --> 01:25:52,920
Speaker 1: block now seems to always happen for us, Crystal in

1669
01:25:52,920 --> 01:25:55,599
Speaker 1: the middle of the show, there's some groundbreaking stuff going

1670
01:25:55,640 --> 01:25:58,960
Speaker 1: on over in the UK. Yeah, so our here, our

1671
01:25:58,960 --> 01:26:02,160
Speaker 1: guest was sick, so we had to cancel that, but well,

1672
01:26:02,240 --> 01:26:04,679
Speaker 1: hopefully we'll move it to the next person. So Rishie

1673
01:26:04,680 --> 01:26:08,120
Speaker 1: Sunak poised to be Britain's next prime minister. Big moment.

1674
01:26:08,160 --> 01:26:11,559
Speaker 1: I guess for Indians, our first leader in the West already.

1675
01:26:11,600 --> 01:26:13,080
Speaker 1: You know, you got the New York Times in front

1676
01:26:13,080 --> 01:26:15,400
Speaker 1: of you, the first person of color who will lead

1677
01:26:15,800 --> 01:26:18,000
Speaker 1: at then to think it's probably more important what exactly

1678
01:26:18,040 --> 01:26:20,080
Speaker 1: the man is going to do when he's in office.

1679
01:26:20,120 --> 01:26:22,799
Speaker 1: And look, two couple of things is kind of interesting.

1680
01:26:22,880 --> 01:26:25,680
Speaker 1: One number one, Sunak actually ran against trust saying that

1681
01:26:25,760 --> 01:26:28,000
Speaker 1: her plan wasn't gonna work. He said it was a

1682
01:26:28,040 --> 01:26:29,720
Speaker 1: fairy tale. I was going to say, I believe he's

1683
01:26:29,840 --> 01:26:32,720
Speaker 1: called it quote fairy tale in the debate between the

1684
01:26:32,760 --> 01:26:35,519
Speaker 1: two that's on his side. On the other, this is

1685
01:26:35,520 --> 01:26:38,040
Speaker 1: a precarious situation. Twenty twenty four is the next general

1686
01:26:38,080 --> 01:26:40,120
Speaker 1: election that's going to get called the amount of chaos

1687
01:26:40,200 --> 01:26:43,679
Speaker 1: that's happening right now. Clearly the Conservative Party is totally split.

1688
01:26:44,000 --> 01:26:46,280
Speaker 1: They really don't seem to agree on what the path

1689
01:26:46,320 --> 01:26:49,479
Speaker 1: forward is on inflation and on energy. They tried the

1690
01:26:49,479 --> 01:26:51,840
Speaker 1: free marketism, but they're also not going to go all

1691
01:26:51,880 --> 01:26:54,000
Speaker 1: the way in terms of price control and you know,

1692
01:26:54,080 --> 01:26:57,240
Speaker 1: seizing the energy grid. They have to deal with Ukraine.

1693
01:26:57,320 --> 01:26:59,800
Speaker 1: They also have the cold that's stepping in right now.

1694
01:27:00,080 --> 01:27:02,679
Speaker 1: The party is split almost fifty to fifty. Boris Johnson,

1695
01:27:02,680 --> 01:27:05,080
Speaker 1: when he bat out of the road race yesterday, said

1696
01:27:05,080 --> 01:27:07,080
Speaker 1: that he had received over one hundred commitments in the

1697
01:27:07,080 --> 01:27:11,559
Speaker 1: Conservative Party behind his candidacy. Nobody knows if that's true

1698
01:27:11,640 --> 01:27:15,200
Speaker 1: or not. That's just what boris. Yeah, listen, I don't know.

1699
01:27:15,640 --> 01:27:18,479
Speaker 1: The point is that he was in contention in serious

1700
01:27:18,520 --> 01:27:21,240
Speaker 1: way to possibly be the lead. Well, so he doesn't

1701
01:27:21,240 --> 01:27:23,639
Speaker 1: have a full mandate party all. And let's let's back

1702
01:27:23,680 --> 01:27:26,439
Speaker 1: up a little bit for people I've been following this

1703
01:27:26,560 --> 01:27:30,840
Speaker 1: super closely because obviously Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, he

1704
01:27:31,040 --> 01:27:35,719
Speaker 1: was involved in any number of scandals that ultimately brought down,

1705
01:27:36,080 --> 01:27:38,599
Speaker 1: you know, his time and office forced him out because

1706
01:27:39,120 --> 01:27:41,120
Speaker 1: he was doing you know, they were doing parties like

1707
01:27:41,160 --> 01:27:44,240
Speaker 1: every week during COVID while everybody else was locked down.

1708
01:27:44,479 --> 01:27:47,160
Speaker 1: And then, to make matters worse, he lied about it

1709
01:27:47,439 --> 01:27:49,960
Speaker 1: so many times it's like over and over again. He

1710
01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:54,360
Speaker 1: actually sort of tried to use his quote unquote leadership.

1711
01:27:54,439 --> 01:27:56,320
Speaker 1: I didn't really like the direction he was saying things

1712
01:27:56,320 --> 01:27:59,240
Speaker 1: in but you know, going to Kiev and his posturing

1713
01:27:59,280 --> 01:28:01,439
Speaker 1: on the Ukraine, A lot of that was an attempt

1714
01:28:01,479 --> 01:28:05,720
Speaker 1: to sort of rescue his own domestic political fallout. And

1715
01:28:05,840 --> 01:28:10,800
Speaker 1: so what triggered his resignation ultimately being pushed down of

1716
01:28:10,800 --> 01:28:14,919
Speaker 1: office was Rishie Sunak, who was a member of his cabinet.

1717
01:28:15,439 --> 01:28:19,080
Speaker 1: He ultimately resigns, and that sort of is what kicks

1718
01:28:19,080 --> 01:28:21,599
Speaker 1: off the process that Lee ends up with Boris Johnson

1719
01:28:21,640 --> 01:28:24,960
Speaker 1: out of office. Then you have this race for you know,

1720
01:28:25,000 --> 01:28:27,320
Speaker 1: Tory leadership and to be the next Prime minister. It

1721
01:28:27,479 --> 01:28:31,040
Speaker 1: ends up being basically Sunac versus Trust. Sunac is very

1722
01:28:31,040 --> 01:28:34,960
Speaker 1: critical of Trust's just total, like you know, all in

1723
01:28:35,240 --> 01:28:40,479
Speaker 1: ideological Thatcher Reagan zombie market fundamentalism stuff. He's like, this

1724
01:28:40,520 --> 01:28:42,960
Speaker 1: is way too far. And there are factions within the

1725
01:28:42,960 --> 01:28:46,960
Speaker 1: Conservative Party because you know, Boris Johnson was that sort

1726
01:28:47,000 --> 01:28:49,680
Speaker 1: of like, you know, more economically populous. You did some

1727
01:28:49,760 --> 01:28:52,479
Speaker 1: things that you wouldn't normally associate with Toy leadership. So

1728
01:28:52,760 --> 01:28:59,360
Speaker 1: when Trust announced her market fundamentalists budget with all these

1729
01:28:59,400 --> 01:29:01,400
Speaker 1: tax cuts the rich and I'm not going to raise

1730
01:29:01,439 --> 01:29:03,880
Speaker 1: taxes on corporations and I'm going to lift the banker

1731
01:29:03,920 --> 01:29:06,840
Speaker 1: bonuses and all of that, there were right wing newspapers

1732
01:29:06,840 --> 01:29:08,880
Speaker 1: that were celebrating. They were like, this is finally we

1733
01:29:08,920 --> 01:29:13,839
Speaker 1: have a true blue Tory budget. So when the bottom

1734
01:29:13,880 --> 01:29:18,120
Speaker 1: fell out of that, ultimately Sunak appears to have been vindicated,

1735
01:29:18,200 --> 01:29:20,719
Speaker 1: and in stunning fashion because he, you know, had called

1736
01:29:20,760 --> 01:29:23,080
Speaker 1: this a fairy tale and had been critical from the start.

1737
01:29:23,479 --> 01:29:26,800
Speaker 1: So there's still I think, you know, the question mark

1738
01:29:26,840 --> 01:29:29,240
Speaker 1: around him was whether the party would get behind him,

1739
01:29:29,240 --> 01:29:31,560
Speaker 1: given the fact that he was seen as kind of

1740
01:29:31,600 --> 01:29:33,880
Speaker 1: a traitor to Boris, and there's still a very large

1741
01:29:33,920 --> 01:29:36,920
Speaker 1: Boris aligned faction. But ultimately, you know, there clearly were

1742
01:29:36,960 --> 01:29:39,360
Speaker 1: able to overcome that and he'll be the next Prime minister. Now.

1743
01:29:39,360 --> 01:29:42,400
Speaker 1: The other thing to say here is that like the

1744
01:29:42,439 --> 01:29:45,360
Speaker 1: standing of the Conservative Party in Britain has almost never

1745
01:29:45,400 --> 01:29:50,920
Speaker 1: been lower. Yeah, like there are there's mass clamoring for

1746
01:29:50,960 --> 01:29:55,720
Speaker 1: a general election. It is incredibly anti democratic to just

1747
01:29:55,800 --> 01:29:59,479
Speaker 1: keep swapping in and out these leaders with no general vote.

1748
01:29:59,800 --> 01:30:03,439
Speaker 1: Right Labor in the last polls had like a you know,

1749
01:30:03,640 --> 01:30:08,599
Speaker 1: thirty five point lead over the Tories led by Kure Starmer.

1750
01:30:08,640 --> 01:30:10,760
Speaker 1: They've sort of like crushed the Corbonites and have this

1751
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:14,160
Speaker 1: more like neoliberal type of dude who's in charge now.

1752
01:30:14,720 --> 01:30:17,519
Speaker 1: So even though they now have a new prime minister,

1753
01:30:18,160 --> 01:30:23,680
Speaker 1: he's facing massive economic problems, massive worse than us. I mean,

1754
01:30:24,160 --> 01:30:27,919
Speaker 1: inflation is higher, they don't have the world's reserve currency.

1755
01:30:28,160 --> 01:30:31,880
Speaker 1: They have housing crisis. Housing affordability I think is even worse,

1756
01:30:32,400 --> 01:30:37,040
Speaker 1: huge housing issues, huge energy issues. We covered the BBC

1757
01:30:37,240 --> 01:30:39,400
Speaker 1: is write in secret scripts in case there's a massive,

1758
01:30:39,479 --> 01:30:42,720
Speaker 1: like nationwide blackout, Like that's the sort of thing that

1759
01:30:42,760 --> 01:30:46,559
Speaker 1: he's stepping into, which Trust made that much worse with

1760
01:30:46,640 --> 01:30:49,840
Speaker 1: the fallout from her you know, ultimately aborted economic plan.

1761
01:30:50,360 --> 01:30:53,400
Speaker 1: And then there's massive political issues as well, because the

1762
01:30:53,439 --> 01:30:57,960
Speaker 1: Tories are in such poor political standing. So it's going

1763
01:30:58,040 --> 01:31:00,360
Speaker 1: to be you know, it's it's quite some thing that

1764
01:31:00,400 --> 01:31:02,720
Speaker 1: he is that he's got on his plate, right, Yeah,

1765
01:31:02,720 --> 01:31:04,200
Speaker 1: that's why I was saying, you know, before all the

1766
01:31:04,200 --> 01:31:06,439
Speaker 1: Indians get so happy, this guy could last just as

1767
01:31:06,479 --> 01:31:08,920
Speaker 1: long as Liz Trust. I mean, the reality is is

1768
01:31:08,960 --> 01:31:11,959
Speaker 1: the got divided Conservative Party, The country is in turmoil.

1769
01:31:12,040 --> 01:31:14,680
Speaker 1: He's got a bunch of crises. It's very possible that

1770
01:31:14,720 --> 01:31:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, you get a vote of no confidence that

1771
01:31:16,680 --> 01:31:18,960
Speaker 1: gets called on him. What if there's another snap financial

1772
01:31:18,960 --> 01:31:21,360
Speaker 1: crisis nobody knows and then you. That's it. Boom, your

1773
01:31:21,400 --> 01:31:24,000
Speaker 1: government is over. You're resigned. He's only forty two years old.

1774
01:31:24,000 --> 01:31:26,679
Speaker 1: He's actually quite young in order to hold the office.

1775
01:31:26,720 --> 01:31:29,840
Speaker 1: So anyway, like this is a very PreCure the head

1776
01:31:29,840 --> 01:31:32,920
Speaker 1: of lettuce I think he probably will just because Trust

1777
01:31:33,040 --> 01:31:35,719
Speaker 1: was such a disaster. But the previous one, I believe

1778
01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:38,880
Speaker 1: it lasted three months. That was the previous shortest PM

1779
01:31:39,120 --> 01:31:41,519
Speaker 1: in British history. I saw a bunch of great takes

1780
01:31:41,520 --> 01:31:44,320
Speaker 1: that trivia writers in the UK had to update all

1781
01:31:44,360 --> 01:31:46,880
Speaker 1: of their stuff because it hadn't had somebody who'd serve

1782
01:31:46,920 --> 01:31:49,160
Speaker 1: for such a like it was a staple everybody in

1783
01:31:49,200 --> 01:31:51,519
Speaker 1: the country knew, at least in trivia, like who the

1784
01:31:51,720 --> 01:31:53,840
Speaker 1: shortest serving PM was, and they had to update it.

1785
01:31:54,000 --> 01:31:56,760
Speaker 1: Now it'll be Liz Trust. It's a really it's a

1786
01:31:56,800 --> 01:31:59,880
Speaker 1: complex situation and he is really walking into the buz.

1787
01:32:00,120 --> 01:32:02,160
Speaker 1: I kind of agree, which is that at this point,

1788
01:32:02,240 --> 01:32:04,080
Speaker 1: I think you need to have a general election. I mean,

1789
01:32:04,080 --> 01:32:05,599
Speaker 1: they're not going to do it because they know they'll lose,

1790
01:32:05,640 --> 01:32:07,519
Speaker 1: because it will lose. Yeah, but trying to govern the

1791
01:32:07,520 --> 01:32:10,639
Speaker 1: country like this is not good for anybody, It really isn't.

1792
01:32:10,680 --> 01:32:13,000
Speaker 1: And just this level of turmoil at the top of

1793
01:32:13,000 --> 01:32:15,040
Speaker 1: the government. It's bad for the economy, it's bad for

1794
01:32:15,040 --> 01:32:18,320
Speaker 1: foreign relations, it's bad for the populace. And when if

1795
01:32:18,320 --> 01:32:20,120
Speaker 1: they do keep it up, and if especially he has

1796
01:32:20,120 --> 01:32:22,479
Speaker 1: a divided party and kind of hangs on by a

1797
01:32:22,520 --> 01:32:25,080
Speaker 1: thread up until twenty four, they are going to get

1798
01:32:25,080 --> 01:32:28,120
Speaker 1: creamed in the next general election. And then he's out anyway,

1799
01:32:28,160 --> 01:32:30,680
Speaker 1: So it may honestly be to his own benefit. Who

1800
01:32:30,760 --> 01:32:33,280
Speaker 1: knows how it's all going to go. Yeah, and obviously,

1801
01:32:33,320 --> 01:32:36,559
Speaker 1: I mean that's a huge economy, huge trading partner of ours,

1802
01:32:36,800 --> 01:32:39,560
Speaker 1: massive ally of ours. And then, as I tried to

1803
01:32:39,640 --> 01:32:42,240
Speaker 1: lay on in my monologue, also a lot of warning

1804
01:32:42,280 --> 01:32:45,560
Speaker 1: signs coming from the UK, and you know they've foreshadowed

1805
01:32:45,560 --> 01:32:49,519
Speaker 1: political and economic events that lay in our future as well.

1806
01:32:49,600 --> 01:32:51,840
Speaker 1: This is why it's important to pay close attention to

1807
01:32:51,880 --> 01:32:54,479
Speaker 1: what is happening there across the pond. I agree. All right,

1808
01:32:54,560 --> 01:32:56,720
Speaker 1: we'll see you guys later. We really appreciate you joining us.

1809
01:32:56,720 --> 01:32:58,720
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for the premium members for making our

1810
01:32:58,720 --> 01:33:00,880
Speaker 1: show possible. We've got some good daph changes which we're

1811
01:33:00,880 --> 01:33:03,799
Speaker 1: going to announce here soon, which literally is only capable

1812
01:33:03,880 --> 01:33:06,519
Speaker 1: because of all the support that you guys have given us.

1813
01:33:06,640 --> 01:33:10,040
Speaker 1: No live show announcements or anything more for the time being.

1814
01:33:10,200 --> 01:33:13,080
Speaker 1: We'll have new ones that are out there soon. Thank

1815
01:33:13,120 --> 01:33:15,519
Speaker 1: you for everybody who took advantage of the Counterpoints discount.

1816
01:33:15,680 --> 01:33:17,760
Speaker 1: We really appreciate all of you signing up. It's been

1817
01:33:17,920 --> 01:33:20,280
Speaker 1: a tremendous success and we're going to see some interesting

1818
01:33:20,760 --> 01:33:23,280
Speaker 1: updates and changes on the Counterpoints front, two of which

1819
01:33:23,280 --> 01:33:25,320
Speaker 1: we will notify our premium subs first, So if you

1820
01:33:25,320 --> 01:33:26,960
Speaker 1: want to join us, the link is down their description.

1821
01:33:27,080 --> 01:33:28,960
Speaker 1: Until then, We'll see you guys later. Love, You'll see

1822
01:33:28,960 --> 01:33:29,400
Speaker 1: you tomorrow.