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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 2: We're going to kick the show off with a lighthearted topic,

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Speaker 2: what is the chance that artificial intelligence will destroy every

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Speaker 2: last human being and all animals speaking us on Earth?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Nate, that is a very very lighthearted area of discussion.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. Then we're going to move

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Speaker 1: on to the presidential debates and how important they are

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Speaker 1: and what they mean for the elections.

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Speaker 2: And then for our serious segment, the World Serious Poker

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Speaker 2: begins next week in Las Vegas. We're both going to

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Speaker 2: be there. I already got my wired transfer to whatever

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Speaker 2: new payment provider the world series uses, So we'll do

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Speaker 2: a preview of the series on today's show.

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Speaker 1: All right, Nate. So you know, I did not think

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Speaker 1: that twenty four was going to be the year that

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Speaker 1: I would be talking about Scarlett Johansson in reference to

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Speaker 1: artificial intelligence and open Ai. But here we are because

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Speaker 1: open Ai, which is one of the biggest companies in

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Speaker 1: AI research and the fourth behind chat GPT, just unveiled

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Speaker 1: the new voice of their newest AI assistant, and that

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Speaker 1: voice sounds eerily like Scarlet Johansson, which I guess is

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Speaker 1: not surprising since there was this movie Her where Scarlet

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Speaker 1: played this AI assistant who becomes very very human like

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Speaker 1: and engenders very human like emotions in her co stars. Right,

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Speaker 1: and then we see this announcement from Sam Altman, who

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Speaker 1: is the founder of Open Ai, about their new voice

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Speaker 1: called Sky, and I want to go back to the

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Speaker 1: name of the voice in a second when we talk

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Speaker 1: about the more substantive issues in open AI, but he

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Speaker 1: references her when he tweets about it, and the voice

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Speaker 1: sounds early like Scarlett, and she issues a statement that says, hey, guys,

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Speaker 1: you know that is not me. I did not agree

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Speaker 1: with this, and we're getting some lawyers involved. And then

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Speaker 1: the voice is very quickly taken down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because he had tried to make a proper deal

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Speaker 2: with her. She had said nah, cold feet. And then

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Speaker 2: they come out anyway with this product that sounds a

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Speaker 2: lot like her. So it's I mean, look, this comes

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Speaker 2: up in my book a little bit, which I'm always pitching,

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Speaker 2: I guess on the show, But I think Silicon Valley

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Speaker 2: does not understand politics very well. Right, you have this

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Speaker 2: very popular actress people left, right and center. Literally my

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Speaker 2: Twitter feed, we're pretty upset for how brazen Sam Altman

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Speaker 2: and openay look about this, and that matters. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Congress has a lot of power to regulate AI. There

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Speaker 2: is actually a broad bipartisan support for more a regulation.

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Speaker 2: Theydy the AI might be dangerous in different ways, maybe

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Speaker 2: not quite in the way that the people will talk

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Speaker 2: about in a moment. The doomers think about it, but

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Speaker 2: people think it I'll take their jobs, and people think

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Speaker 2: it will make misinformation worse, all types of problems algrethmc bias.

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Speaker 2: So people have to be people have to be careful.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, I kind of hate politics too, but

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Speaker 2: unfortunately they have a lot of regulatory powers. You have

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Speaker 2: to you have to put up with some of that

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Speaker 2: stupidity and not egging on by doing something twice as

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Speaker 2: stupid yourself.

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Speaker 1: That's absolutely right, and Nate, I am going to show

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Speaker 1: the world how much you're already rubbing off on me.

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Speaker 1: In terms of using a sports analogy, this is akin

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Speaker 1: to what we would call an unforced error, right, like

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Speaker 1: this did not have to happen, And this is in

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Speaker 1: a week where open ai desperately, desperately needs some positive publicity,

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Speaker 1: because what we really want to be talking about isn't

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Speaker 1: Scarlett Johansson, as gorgeous as she is and as amazing

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Speaker 1: as her voice is and as much as we love her.

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Speaker 1: But the other really really big news from open AI

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Speaker 1: this week, which is that one of their co founders

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Speaker 1: and chief scientist Ilia Sutskib has resigned. And he is

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Speaker 1: not the only one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going to pretend I know all these names.

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Speaker 2: It's not like their NBA players or how to pronounce them,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, unlike a Leopold Aschenbrenner, Pabel Isma Lov, all

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Speaker 2: these people that, again I don't know personally, but like

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Speaker 2: credible people think are safety oriented open air researchers, and

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Speaker 2: a half dozen of them have left in the past

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Speaker 2: half year or so. It's a pretty bad sign for

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Speaker 2: a company that's marketing itself as once having been a

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Speaker 2: nonprofit that was concerned with doing AI the right way.

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Speaker 2: Is that people in that coalition are are now leaving

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Speaker 2: in some significant number.

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Speaker 1: So the reason that people, including the two of us,

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Speaker 1: are so incredibly worried about this or thinking about this

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Speaker 1: and trying to figure out should we be worried about

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Speaker 1: this is because this was the super Alignment team. This

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Speaker 1: was the team responsible for making sure that AI doesn't

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Speaker 1: destroy the world. And by the way, I'm just going

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Speaker 1: to harken back to our Scarlett Johansson discussion for one second.

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Speaker 1: They called the sky and like, were they trying to

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Speaker 1: refer to Skynet as well? Like, were they just trying

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Speaker 1: to put a terminator in the reference right in there,

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Speaker 1: saying like, hey guys, we're unleashing something that might destroy

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Speaker 1: the world.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's a detached irony. Like, look, I

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Speaker 2: think Sam Altman's Twitter feed is kind of funny, right,

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Speaker 2: And it's kind of funny, and he's combative and he battles.

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Speaker 2: He's a poster which if you're like me, who the

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Speaker 2: fuck cares? If you're running open AI, then maybe you

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Speaker 2: have to be a little bit more buttoned down. And

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Speaker 2: they're kind of aloof right. San Francisco and the Silicon

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Speaker 2: Valley have always been kind of detached from the rest

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Speaker 2: of the country. They're all very smart, all very rich.

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Speaker 2: They're also very you know, male for the most part,

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Speaker 2: They're probably in a bubble in certain ways. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know, like I said before, I might think Congress

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Speaker 2: is stupid. I kind of sympathized more with the Silicon

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Speaker 2: Valley side and the argument in many ways than the

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Speaker 2: DC side. I think they're more innovative. I think technology

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Speaker 2: has been good for society. We're all, but like I

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Speaker 2: think there is a lot of arrogance there that might

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Speaker 2: not end well. You look at what Congress did to Napster,

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Speaker 2: for example, or other businesses that we're seen as having

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Speaker 2: gotten out of line. And there is a pretty broad

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Speaker 2: bipartisan sense of weariness about AI for different reasons. Democrats

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Speaker 2: might be concerned about algorithmic bias. Both parties might be

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Speaker 2: concerned about jobs being taken over. But the political climate

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Speaker 2: on this could shift quite quickly, and that would be

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Speaker 2: very bad for Sam Maltman's business.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about this concept known as P doom.

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Speaker 1: So do you want to just first to say, like,

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Speaker 1: what is P doom?

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Speaker 2: I pronounce it more like pay doom because looking myself,

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Speaker 2: like you look like a urinary tract problem or something.

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Speaker 1: All right, P doom.

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Speaker 2: So pay doom is a shorthand for probability of doom,

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Speaker 2: which is a shorthand for what's the chance that AI

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Speaker 2: destroys civilization or substantially impair civilization, which is actually like

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Speaker 2: a pretty big distinction. People have different definitions. Eliezer Yudkowski,

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Speaker 2: one of the most prominent doomers, meaning people who are

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Speaker 2: very worried about AI risk, defines it literally is all

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Speaker 2: human beings and animal species perishing, right, every single living being.

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Speaker 2: He has said in a Time magazine article last year.

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Speaker 2: I think so he's being very literal. Someone like Ajaia Kotra,

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Speaker 2: who is an AI researcher, uses some more inclusive definitions.

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Speaker 2: I mean things where humanity loses agency if, for example,

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Speaker 2: we are no longer really in charge, maybe our lives

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Speaker 2: are okay, or some very rich people in Silicon Valley

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Speaker 2: have some agency. But if we kind of hand over

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Speaker 2: the keys to machines and it becomes kind of dystopian,

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Speaker 2: and that could qualify as p doom as well. That's

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Speaker 2: a big distinction. And people also have very wide ranges,

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Speaker 2: which when they cite this chance you can get people

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Speaker 2: who think it's you know, ninety nine percent in this

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Speaker 2: coming from Eliezer Yukowski. The consensus, and again if you

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Speaker 2: kind of put aside the fact that the different definitions

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Speaker 2: of it is probably in the range of five to

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Speaker 2: ten percent. If you survey AI experts, AI researchers give

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Speaker 2: them different definitions, they kind of gravitate toward that five

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Speaker 2: to ten percent range. Some people in the safety community

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Speaker 2: are higher, maybe more the range of ten or twenty percent.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, let's not be too abstract here.

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Speaker 2: If it's true that there is like a ten percent

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Speaker 2: chance or even frankly a two percent chance of humanity

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Speaker 2: going extinct from AI in the next one hundred years,

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Speaker 2: this is a tremendously important problem. Yeah, so figuring out

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Speaker 2: how reliable those estimates are is an important challenge that

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Speaker 2: the show will tackle from time to time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I just took round it even more. Let

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Speaker 1: me kind of talk you through a problem that has

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Speaker 1: nothing to do with AI that I had to deal

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Speaker 1: with quite recently, where you kind of start realizing what

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Speaker 1: it means, what five percent means, right, what ten percent

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Speaker 1: actually means? So I had a leak in the shower, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, like that just completely really annoying, like drip

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Speaker 1: drip drip from the show our head, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: you look it up online, you try to figure out,

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Speaker 1: like what's going on? How do we fix this? And

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Speaker 1: turns out that you know, this is a gasket problem,

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Speaker 1: and according to YouTube, it's super easy to do it yourself, right,

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Speaker 1: you just you know, you take it off, you replace it,

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Speaker 1: put it back on, and voila, everything's done. So this

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Speaker 1: happened in a big apartment building and I had to

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Speaker 1: reach out to the management and be like, hey, how

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Speaker 1: do I turn off the water in my apartment? Because

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Speaker 1: that's step one, right, you turn off the water flow.

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Speaker 1: And so they ended up sending someone and she was like,

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Speaker 1: are you insane? You do realize that you could end

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Speaker 1: up flooding the apartment below and if you do that,

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Speaker 1: you're going to be liable for all of those repairs,

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Speaker 1: which could go into the tens of thousands of dollars. Now,

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Speaker 1: of course, like normal people walking around aren't going to

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Speaker 1: give me a percentage and be like, you know, Maria,

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Speaker 1: your p flood is approximately fifteen percent here, But she

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Speaker 1: made it seem like it was certainly great than five percent,

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Speaker 1: and maybe you know, greater than ten percent, especially because

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Speaker 1: the building has very hard water. And so there's isn't.

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Speaker 2: A real thing that sounds like some bullshit.

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Speaker 1: It is a real thing. Date, It's a very real thing.

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Speaker 1: As a female who washes my hair all the time.

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Speaker 1: Let me tell you, as someone who doesn't have nearly

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Speaker 1: as much hair as I do. Sorry, Nate, but that's

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Speaker 1: just Them's the facts. God, that hard water is a

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Speaker 1: very very real thing and has a very different effect

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Speaker 1: on your face, on your hair, on everything, and apparently

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Speaker 1: on the level of corrosion when fixing a shower on

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Speaker 1: your pea flood. And so here I am trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out, okay, well what do I do, like, how

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Speaker 1: do I actually decide this? I ended up asking my dad,

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Speaker 1: because you know, daddy knows best, and he had a

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Speaker 1: very good way of thinking about it. He said, do

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Speaker 1: it if there's no visible sign of corrosion and it's

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Speaker 1: super easy to take it out, don't do it otherwise.

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Speaker 1: And so I, you know, opened it and there was

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Speaker 1: tons of corrosion. It was very clear that I could

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Speaker 1: not take it out easily. Hired a plumber, got it done.

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Speaker 1: But it made me realize that those tiny chances, when

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Speaker 1: there's a huge risk involved that can actually translate to

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Speaker 1: a lot of money, you have to take that seriously.

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Speaker 1: And obviously this is so ridiculously silly, right me destroying

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Speaker 1: someone's bathroom below mind versus humanity going extinct. But it

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Speaker 1: just illustrates that even if you said, you know, the

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Speaker 1: p doom is five percent, and that's not just five

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Speaker 1: to ten percent, but five percent or two percent, that

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Speaker 1: is absolutely astronomical when the actual cost is the end

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Speaker 1: of the world.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. In fact, I'm not even sure that it makes

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Speaker 2: sense to think of it an expected value terms, because

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Speaker 2: expected value is the average or some number of outcomes.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: I made a bet on a soccer match the other

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Speaker 2: day that you know, I had to win one out

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Speaker 2: of six times to be profitable. It did not win,

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Speaker 2: but in the long run you would make money from

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Speaker 2: that ben Right. If you destroy civilization, however, you don't

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Speaker 2: have at no longer, I don't have a view over.

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Speaker 1: This is a very very important point. Yes, if I

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Speaker 1: destroyed the downstairs apartment, I will be able to pay

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Speaker 1: for it. So this is a risk that I can

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Speaker 1: think about. If I destroy the world, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to be able to make it all better with a

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Speaker 1: band aid.

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Speaker 2: And what's very weird about the politics of all of

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Speaker 2: this is that the people who are most worried about

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Speaker 2: p doom tend to be the people who are building

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Speaker 2: the AI systems. Which to me people try to like

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Speaker 2: over complicate this and say, well, maybe they have some

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Speaker 2: marketing and go like, that's fucking stupid. They're worried about

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Speaker 2: it because a it's made progress much faster than people anticipated,

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Speaker 2: at least recently. I mean, I think very few researchers

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Speaker 2: would have thought that large language models like CHATCHYPT can

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Speaker 2: accomplish as much as they do right now. Or they can,

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Speaker 2: you know, answer any question with a degree ranging from

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Speaker 2: somewhat competent bullshitter to actually very good on many questions.

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Speaker 2: They can like solve some mathematical equations, they could do

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Speaker 2: some programming, they can draw shitty art, they can make

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Speaker 2: mediocre music, right. But like, these are all things that

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Speaker 2: would have surprised most experts if you'd ask them five

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Speaker 2: years ago. The other thing that worries experts is that

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Speaker 2: we don't really know how all of us works. You

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Speaker 2: kind of feed a giant, you populate a giant matrix

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Speaker 2: of what are called tokens, which are words which are

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Speaker 2: kind of compressed into vector space. I'm deliberately using some terminology,

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Speaker 2: but like the inner workings of these transformer models are

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Speaker 2: not entirely understood. To be fair the inner workings of

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Speaker 2: the human brain are not very well understood either. But

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Speaker 2: to have a very powerful technology that purports to do

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Speaker 2: superhuman things within a span of five or ten or

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Speaker 2: twenty years and which we don't understand very well seems

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Speaker 2: like kind of self evidently a risk we ought to

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Speaker 2: be concerned about. That's kind of like the short Steelman

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Speaker 2: version of why it's not ridiculous to be worried about

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Speaker 2: about ped doom.

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Speaker 1: Well, and I think that an even shorter version is

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Speaker 1: something that you said right at the beginning, which is

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Speaker 1: that the people who are designing it, that's the same

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Speaker 1: subset as the people who are most worried about it,

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Speaker 1: and whose p dooms tend to be very high. That

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Speaker 1: tells us something, Right, if everyone who was actually working

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Speaker 1: in AI said nah, this is fine, like it's all good,

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Speaker 1: and we were hearing this from pundits and from politicians

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Speaker 1: and from you know, people on the other end of it,

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Speaker 1: then we'd say, oh, you know, maybe we should discredit

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Speaker 1: some of this. But it's coming from the people who

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Speaker 1: are actually doing the designing, who are actually doing the building,

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Speaker 1: And so that makes me, as someone who doesn't know

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Speaker 1: anything about these black box workings worried, especially because we

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Speaker 1: know that other processes that have had black box components

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Speaker 1: have gone off the rails and have gone wrong and

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Speaker 1: have glitched in the past. I mean, we've had this

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Speaker 1: with trading algorithms, right, Like this shit happens all the time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, there are an abundance of scenarios, including that

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Speaker 2: people are over confident about AI capabilities and therefore hand

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Speaker 2: control of key systems over to AIS and they fuck up. Right,

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Speaker 2: I don't see the concerns that kind of DC has

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Speaker 2: about AI and the one Silicon Valley does that's necessarily

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Speaker 2: mutually exclusive. They could both. You know, there are various

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Speaker 2: categories of mild, medium, and terrible things, but there's also

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Speaker 2: like a lot of upside in general. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if there's some way to quantify this, but the best

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Speaker 2: majority of technologies move humanity forward in different ways. Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, the human condition is much much, much much

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Speaker 2: better than it was centuries ago because of modern technology.

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Speaker 2: People who don't know that are basically totally misinformed. And

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Speaker 2: like I we'd bet that half of people, even I

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Speaker 2: mean our listeners might know, but like the average voter

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Speaker 2: probably doesn't know very much about kind of economic history

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Speaker 2: and things like that. Technology has been a force for

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Speaker 2: good mostly, but we haven't dealt with that many technologies

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Speaker 2: that were predicted to have the power to like destroy civilization.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, nuclear weapons, you can say, well,

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Speaker 2: you know, nuclear weapons have gone okay so far, well

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Speaker 2: only since nineteen forty five. If there's like a one

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Speaker 2: percent chance risk every year of nuclear weapons been used

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Speaker 2: in common, which, by the way, happened in nineteen forty

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Speaker 2: five Nagasaki and Hiroshima. You know, seventy eighty years of

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Speaker 2: data are not enough to nullify a one in one

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Speaker 2: hundred chance.

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Speaker 1: So, Nate, I remember someone when I was kind of

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Speaker 1: reading about all of the open AI stuff, something that

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Speaker 1: really jumped out at me was a CEO who described

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Speaker 1: Sam Altman's approach to open AI regulation and open AI

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Speaker 1: in general as ready fire aim And that to me

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Speaker 1: is a little bit backwards. It doesn't mean we can't fire,

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Speaker 1: but we should probably be aiming. And the people who left,

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Speaker 1: the people who've resigned the most high profile departures, those

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Speaker 1: were our aim people. So Nate, I think we should

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Speaker 1: be revisiting our p DO estimates in the coming weeks

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Speaker 1: and the coming months to see what happens. I think

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more pessimistic than you are, and

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Speaker 1: I think probably these departures have made both of us

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Speaker 1: slightly more pessimistic than we were before. And I would

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Speaker 1: just absolutely love to be proven wrong here. This is

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Speaker 1: one area where I hope that ourp dooms are all

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Speaker 1: way too high. And you know, we can revisit this

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Speaker 1: in fifty years and say, ha haha, remember when we

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Speaker 1: were all so scared.

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Speaker 2: So nate.

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Speaker 1: As you know, we are in an election year and

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Speaker 1: there were actually some big news for this early on,

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Speaker 1: and they had to do with the debates, the presidential debates.

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Speaker 1: This has been something on everyone's minds, and it seems

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Speaker 1: like Biden and Trump have mostly agreed for their debate

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Speaker 1: terms for their first debate, which has now been pushed

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Speaker 1: up from the fall to June twenty seventh on CNN.

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Speaker 1: So that is like that's in a month, right, that

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Speaker 1: is coming up right around the corner, and then there's

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Speaker 1: going to be another debate in September. And this is

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Speaker 1: big news for a few reasons. So I'd love you

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Speaker 1: to talk us through why this is important and why

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Speaker 1: we should you know, actually care about this news, about

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Speaker 1: the presidential debates.

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Speaker 2: So the reason you should care is that we are

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Speaker 2: how to put this nicely, You.

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Speaker 1: Don't have to put it nicely, Nate. I know we're

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Speaker 1: among friends here.

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Speaker 2: I think this benefits. This maneuver by Biden, which I'll

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Speaker 2: explain in a moment, benefits from people who understand incentives

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Speaker 2: and strategy and kind of revealed preference versus stated preference,

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Speaker 2: all those fancy terminologies, fancy terms I should say. So

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Speaker 2: last week, Biden does a tape segment on Morning Joe.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I can't even like actually go live

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Speaker 2: on the show. You know, if you think you could

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Speaker 2: debate anywhere anytime, you could do a live interview, but

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Speaker 2: leave that alone for a second. Does a tape little

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Speaker 2: segment saying I challenge you Donald to not one, but

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Speaker 2: two debates. Half an hour later, his campaign puts out

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Speaker 2: a memo which does confirm that he has challenged Trump

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Speaker 2: to two debates, and also says in the third paragraph,

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Speaker 2: by the way, we are actually pulling out of the

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Speaker 2: Commission on Presidential Debates the three debates that they had

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Speaker 2: planned for later this year. And look, the CPD has problems.

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Speaker 2: I mean Trump ragged them all the time. In twenty

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Speaker 2: and twenty. He also didn't do any GOP primary debates.

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Speaker 2: But basically Biden traded three debates after Labor Day for

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Speaker 2: one debate after Labor Day and then one on CNN,

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Speaker 2: a cable network that will happen in the middle of

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Speaker 2: June that probably everyone will forget about by the time

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Speaker 2: the conventions happened in July and August, and certainly by

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Speaker 2: the time we get to the stretch round of the campaign.

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Speaker 2: So what Biden is actually doing here is reducing his

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Speaker 2: exposure to debates, which is interesting for various And by

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Speaker 2: the way, if you have doubt about that, Biden says too,

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Speaker 2: Trump agrees to two, they say how about two more,

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Speaker 2: and then Biden's campaign chairwoman says no, no, no, no, no.

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Speaker 2: That would create chaos. When they just create a chaos

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Speaker 2: that morning by blowing up the schedule. It's an interesting

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Speaker 2: kind of game theory problem because on the one hand,

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Speaker 2: the debates are zero, one candidate gains more than the

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Speaker 2: other almost by definition. On the other hand, if you

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Speaker 2: duck the debates, that might be seen as worse than

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Speaker 2: even a bad outcome of the debate. So it's kind

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Speaker 2: of like the opposite of prisoners subletment, where you have

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Speaker 2: an incentive not to cooperate. Here, you have an intetive

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Speaker 2: to reach an agreement. You want to look too difficult

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Speaker 2: or diffident. But usually when you're the candidate who's behind

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Speaker 2: in the race, as Biden is in the swing states

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Speaker 2: in the large majority of polls, you want more uncertainty

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Speaker 2: and more variance, meaning that you want to take more risks.

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Speaker 2: You should want more debates because they add volatility the election,

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Speaker 2: and instead Biden wants fewer. That to me is a

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Speaker 2: really really, really really bad sign for his campaign. It

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Speaker 2: indicates his campaign either is delusional and doesn't believe the polls,

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Speaker 2: and there's a lot of reporting that they don't or

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Speaker 2: that they think their candidate is unlikely to commit himself

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Speaker 2: well in spontaneous public interactions because he's eighty one years old,

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Speaker 2: he has always stammered a lot, but you know, seems

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Speaker 2: like audibly and visibly worse now. That is a bearish

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Speaker 2: sign that you're constraining your stategic options, your chances to

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Speaker 2: come back because you're worried about how well your guy

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Speaker 2: will perform. That's a pretty fucking bad sign. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know, you know, you want to make me to

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Speaker 2: make the subtext text Maria here, sure, let's do it.

404
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Speaker 2: Democrats might be better off replacing Joe Biden on the ticket.

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Speaker 2: I say might, because that's a very very very very

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Speaker 2: very very very risky strategy. You would have to draft

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Speaker 2: a candidate who was not planning on running for president.

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Speaker 2: There is no one Democrat that unifies the field. Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris is roughly as unpopular as Biden. If she were

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Speaker 2: the nominee, you would have a huge fight at the

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Speaker 2: nomination process. You could have someone who's quite far left

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Speaker 2: with the nomination in general, simprist candidates to bear it

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Speaker 2: from another segment, but like, if you were really as

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Speaker 2: concerned about defeating Donald Trump as Democrats claim they are,

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Speaker 2: then you should be doing everything in your power to

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Speaker 2: maximize a chance that you win.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Nate, I'm gonna stop you there for a second.

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Speaker 1: Did you just say that the Democrats should consider replacing

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Speaker 1: Biden as the candidate?

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Speaker 2: They should certainly consider it.

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Speaker 1: And wait, let's be very precise about this. How seriously

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Speaker 1: should they consider it? And what is the percentage chance

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Speaker 1: that you are giving to these different outcomes? Like why

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Speaker 1: are we considering this?

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Speaker 2: Because that is.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that is just like a very very buld assertion.

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Speaker 1: Less than a year before the election.

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Speaker 2: Biden is trailing in the polls right now. His big

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Speaker 2: problems don't seem to be soluble, one of which is

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Speaker 2: the fact that he is eighty one years old and

431
00:22:46,364 --> 00:22:48,924
Speaker 2: often looks and acts like it. His approval rating is

432
00:22:48,964 --> 00:22:52,244
Speaker 2: thirty eight thirty nine percent, generally well below the number

433
00:22:52,244 --> 00:22:54,004
Speaker 2: where you get reelected. I mean, the fact that Trump

434
00:22:54,044 --> 00:22:57,084
Speaker 2: is his opponent. Trump is also very unpopular is what

435
00:22:57,164 --> 00:23:00,804
Speaker 2: keeps Biden in the race competitively. People thought, well, the

436
00:23:00,804 --> 00:23:03,564
Speaker 2: economy will improve and then Biden's numbers will pick up.

437
00:23:03,564 --> 00:23:05,764
Speaker 2: They haven't really. People thought, well, Trump will go on trial,

438
00:23:06,204 --> 00:23:09,004
Speaker 2: the numbers will improve, Well, they haven't really. Well, the

439
00:23:09,084 --> 00:23:11,404
Speaker 2: kind of narrative will improvably, less focus on his age

440
00:23:11,404 --> 00:23:13,484
Speaker 2: will Actually, it doesn't matter kind of what the New

441
00:23:13,564 --> 00:23:15,804
Speaker 2: York Times says about Biden's age. Most voters aren't really

442
00:23:15,844 --> 00:23:17,884
Speaker 2: in the New York Times. So like, let's say we

443
00:23:17,924 --> 00:23:21,244
Speaker 2: get to August, and let's say Biden has a mediucre debate.

444
00:23:21,244 --> 00:23:24,164
Speaker 2: By the way, if he is a terrible, terrible debate.

445
00:23:24,644 --> 00:23:27,284
Speaker 2: One reason I think this play is smart is because

446
00:23:27,324 --> 00:23:32,324
Speaker 2: if Biden totally shits the bed in June, totally seems incompetent,

447
00:23:32,924 --> 00:23:34,884
Speaker 2: then you can kind of pull this emergency lever.

448
00:23:35,604 --> 00:23:37,724
Speaker 1: Let me just ask you a technical question, right, like,

449
00:23:38,004 --> 00:23:41,724
Speaker 1: let's assume that, Okay, Biden performs poorly in the debates,

450
00:23:41,924 --> 00:23:45,924
Speaker 1: the debates matter enough that this really swings public opinion,

451
00:23:46,244 --> 00:23:49,044
Speaker 1: It swings the opinion of the parties, and they do

452
00:23:49,204 --> 00:23:53,444
Speaker 1: end up wanting to replace him as candidates. Can they

453
00:23:53,764 --> 00:23:55,364
Speaker 1: do this in August at the DNC.

454
00:23:56,804 --> 00:23:59,044
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been being a little bit sloppy with my language.

455
00:23:59,484 --> 00:24:01,764
Speaker 2: They means that they would have to persuade Biden to

456
00:24:01,764 --> 00:24:04,804
Speaker 2: do it, because Biden right now has a majority, a large,

457
00:24:04,804 --> 00:24:08,884
Speaker 2: overwhelming majority of pledged delegates. If Biden says I'm not

458
00:24:08,924 --> 00:24:12,124
Speaker 2: a candid nomination, those pledge delects become free agents. They

459
00:24:12,124 --> 00:24:15,084
Speaker 2: can vote for whoever they want. Pretty much, I think

460
00:24:15,084 --> 00:24:16,604
Speaker 2: would be loyaled to Biden, by the way, because he

461
00:24:16,604 --> 00:24:19,004
Speaker 2: did decide who the people are, so he would have

462
00:24:19,004 --> 00:24:21,644
Speaker 2: a pole to dictate maybe who who the future nominee

463
00:24:21,644 --> 00:24:24,084
Speaker 2: would be. Their placement would be. But when I say they,

464
00:24:24,404 --> 00:24:26,804
Speaker 2: I mean I mean Biden, and that they are people

465
00:24:26,804 --> 00:24:30,524
Speaker 2: who were pressuring Biden publicly and privately to say, Joe,

466
00:24:30,564 --> 00:24:32,524
Speaker 2: you're gonna elect Trump unless you stand down and let

467
00:24:32,564 --> 00:24:34,724
Speaker 2: us take a puncher's chance at somebody else. And again,

468
00:24:34,844 --> 00:24:36,404
Speaker 2: I'm not sure it's the best play. I'm just saying

469
00:24:36,644 --> 00:24:38,564
Speaker 2: you have to have that mentality keeping up in mind

470
00:24:38,564 --> 00:24:38,884
Speaker 2: toward it.

471
00:24:40,204 --> 00:24:42,764
Speaker 1: Okay, but what we're talking about a decision like this,

472
00:24:42,844 --> 00:24:45,764
Speaker 1: which is so monumental, you do need to weigh the

473
00:24:45,844 --> 00:24:49,164
Speaker 1: risks on every side. Right, so we can say, Okay,

474
00:24:49,204 --> 00:24:52,604
Speaker 1: Biden does have these issues as a candidate. I think

475
00:24:52,644 --> 00:24:55,364
Speaker 1: everyone acknowledges that. You know, I'm voting for Biden. I

476
00:24:55,404 --> 00:25:00,244
Speaker 1: acknowledge he has issues. Obviously, so does Trump. Obviously. I

477
00:25:00,244 --> 00:25:02,204
Speaker 1: don't think we should be having an election where we're

478
00:25:02,644 --> 00:25:05,764
Speaker 1: dealing between these these two candidates, but here we are.

479
00:25:06,084 --> 00:25:08,604
Speaker 1: So I think, though, you need to weigh the risk

480
00:25:08,844 --> 00:25:14,284
Speaker 1: of that versus pulling him out and introducing an entirely

481
00:25:14,524 --> 00:25:19,044
Speaker 1: new candidate in say August or September, when the election

482
00:25:19,284 --> 00:25:25,124
Speaker 1: is in November. So how do we actually wait that?

483
00:25:25,284 --> 00:25:28,204
Speaker 1: How do you actually try to create that game tree

484
00:25:28,444 --> 00:25:31,004
Speaker 1: where you figure out which of these you know, if

485
00:25:31,044 --> 00:25:33,564
Speaker 1: I'm playing poker, which of these is the least bad option?

486
00:25:33,684 --> 00:25:36,924
Speaker 1: Because to me, it is not clear that yanking Biden

487
00:25:36,964 --> 00:25:38,764
Speaker 1: out is going to be the least bad option. It

488
00:25:38,844 --> 00:25:41,924
Speaker 1: might actually end up being much worse. But we don't

489
00:25:41,964 --> 00:25:44,964
Speaker 1: know right these are things that are in the future.

490
00:25:45,204 --> 00:25:47,284
Speaker 1: We don't know who the replacement candidate would be. There

491
00:25:47,284 --> 00:25:51,204
Speaker 1: are so many unknowns in this particular equation, and that

492
00:25:51,244 --> 00:25:55,124
Speaker 1: makes it incredibly incredibly difficult to calculate any sort of

493
00:25:55,164 --> 00:25:57,284
Speaker 1: probability with any sort of confidence.

494
00:25:58,004 --> 00:26:01,244
Speaker 2: So one thing I'd say, we will have more information

495
00:26:01,364 --> 00:26:04,164
Speaker 2: in August when the Democratic National Convention is held. We

496
00:26:04,204 --> 00:26:06,564
Speaker 2: may know the outcome of the first of Trump's criminal trials,

497
00:26:06,804 --> 00:26:10,444
Speaker 2: We'll have more information about Biden's first debate about the economy.

498
00:26:10,804 --> 00:26:12,524
Speaker 2: It is a very, very big risk. I don't think

499
00:26:12,524 --> 00:26:15,884
Speaker 2: I should do anything now. I think they should play

500
00:26:15,964 --> 00:26:18,484
Speaker 2: their hand with a mind toward having this option down

501
00:26:18,524 --> 00:26:22,124
Speaker 2: the road in August. If the make goes badly, if

502
00:26:22,244 --> 00:26:23,844
Speaker 2: things that are supposed to be good for Biden, like

503
00:26:23,884 --> 00:26:26,004
Speaker 2: the economy improves, and the numbers are still stagnant or

504
00:26:26,004 --> 00:26:28,124
Speaker 2: they get worse, then I think you have to like

505
00:26:28,444 --> 00:26:31,164
Speaker 2: have that option available now. What I would do is

506
00:26:31,284 --> 00:26:35,844
Speaker 2: backchannel talk to Gretchen Whitmer and Raphael Warnock and people

507
00:26:35,884 --> 00:26:38,124
Speaker 2: like that. Gavin Newsome, who I'm not a huge fan of,

508
00:26:38,164 --> 00:26:40,524
Speaker 2: but like certainly seems like ready to fill the position

509
00:26:40,564 --> 00:26:42,644
Speaker 2: if you were asked to, you know, I might back

510
00:26:42,804 --> 00:26:46,004
Speaker 2: channel very very very very very carefully that, like, we

511
00:26:46,044 --> 00:26:48,244
Speaker 2: need a couple of backup options in case something I knew,

512
00:26:48,284 --> 00:26:51,884
Speaker 2: some bullshit pretense, in case there is a health emergency

513
00:26:52,124 --> 00:26:54,964
Speaker 2: or something. Right, maybe just in case, right, maybe get

514
00:26:54,964 --> 00:26:58,244
Speaker 2: your kind of nomination speech ready.

515
00:26:58,004 --> 00:27:01,404
Speaker 1: So from that perspective, it seems like it's actually a

516
00:27:01,484 --> 00:27:05,004
Speaker 1: very strategically sound decision for Biden to move the first

517
00:27:05,004 --> 00:27:05,884
Speaker 1: debate to June.

518
00:27:06,124 --> 00:27:08,604
Speaker 2: Let me get so, look, I think they tactically played

519
00:27:08,644 --> 00:27:12,204
Speaker 2: it very well, in part because they actually reduced the

520
00:27:12,244 --> 00:27:15,164
Speaker 2: num of their debates, which they apparently wanted to do,

521
00:27:15,844 --> 00:27:18,604
Speaker 2: and kind of were credited for being the protagonist and

522
00:27:18,604 --> 00:27:20,764
Speaker 2: pushing footward the debates. Right, That was like, very very

523
00:27:20,844 --> 00:27:23,804
Speaker 2: very clever tactically. If you have a shitty hand to play, right,

524
00:27:23,804 --> 00:27:26,244
Speaker 2: they pull off a good bluff with like seven deuce

525
00:27:26,324 --> 00:27:29,084
Speaker 2: off suit. Maybe it's a little unfair, maybe they're playing

526
00:27:29,124 --> 00:27:31,564
Speaker 2: like jack seven off suit or something like that. Right,

527
00:27:31,684 --> 00:27:33,364
Speaker 2: not your favorite hand. You got a little bit of

528
00:27:33,404 --> 00:27:36,004
Speaker 2: equity jack six off suits somewhere in their nine to

529
00:27:36,004 --> 00:27:39,404
Speaker 2: four suited. You know you've seen worse hands, but like

530
00:27:39,684 --> 00:27:42,684
Speaker 2: they pull off a very good tactical bluff in reducing

531
00:27:42,684 --> 00:27:45,324
Speaker 2: their exposure. The fact that they want to reduce their

532
00:27:45,364 --> 00:27:48,884
Speaker 2: exposure when they're losing, when their candidate won the debates

533
00:27:49,364 --> 00:27:52,244
Speaker 2: four years ago, gives credence to the argument, along with

534
00:27:52,284 --> 00:27:55,044
Speaker 2: the lack of media availabilities that Biden does. Where you

535
00:27:55,124 --> 00:27:58,484
Speaker 2: might have a hostile setting or a spontaneous setting that

536
00:27:59,044 --> 00:28:01,044
Speaker 2: they know their candidate is too old. They know it

537
00:28:01,084 --> 00:28:03,644
Speaker 2: does not come across well to voters in those settings.

538
00:28:03,644 --> 00:28:06,604
Speaker 2: They want to minimize that risk. And when a campaign,

539
00:28:06,604 --> 00:28:10,084
Speaker 2: through turnout and through ads and everything else, that may

540
00:28:10,084 --> 00:28:12,604
Speaker 2: be playing their hand the best they can, but maybe

541
00:28:12,604 --> 00:28:14,764
Speaker 2: you have to fold and play a better hand.

542
00:28:30,204 --> 00:28:33,684
Speaker 1: So, Nate, this is a really really important week for

543
00:28:33,804 --> 00:28:37,084
Speaker 1: both of us because it is our last week of

544
00:28:37,124 --> 00:28:40,444
Speaker 1: sanity for the rest of the summer. Because do you

545
00:28:40,524 --> 00:28:42,764
Speaker 1: know what starts next week on May twenty.

546
00:28:42,524 --> 00:28:48,364
Speaker 2: Eighth, uh meteorological summer that's not until June, but Closeky

547
00:28:48,364 --> 00:28:51,644
Speaker 2: It's It's the Factor World de facto Summer Summer Vacation,

548
00:28:51,724 --> 00:28:53,164
Speaker 2: Summer Camp, the World Series of Poker.

549
00:28:52,964 --> 00:28:56,484
Speaker 1: Summer Camp YEP summer camp for poker players. The World

550
00:28:56,524 --> 00:28:59,564
Speaker 1: Series of Poker, which is like, I mean, it's called

551
00:28:59,604 --> 00:29:02,044
Speaker 1: the World Series of Poker for a reason, but it's

552
00:29:02,044 --> 00:29:05,044
Speaker 1: a big deal, Like this is the single biggest poker

553
00:29:05,084 --> 00:29:07,884
Speaker 1: event of the year. I mean, it's something that people

554
00:29:08,204 --> 00:29:12,764
Speaker 1: plan for, prepare for forever, and for some people it's

555
00:29:12,804 --> 00:29:15,924
Speaker 1: their life's dream to come to Vegas and play in

556
00:29:15,964 --> 00:29:17,164
Speaker 1: the World Series of Poker.

557
00:29:17,604 --> 00:29:20,284
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's nowhere else where for seven weeks if you

558
00:29:20,324 --> 00:29:22,884
Speaker 2: want it. There is such an abundance of poker, not

559
00:29:22,964 --> 00:29:25,924
Speaker 2: just tournaments at the World Series, but there are eight

560
00:29:25,964 --> 00:29:28,684
Speaker 2: different poker rooms around town that host their own tournament series.

561
00:29:29,164 --> 00:29:32,124
Speaker 2: There are cash games, there are friends to hang out with,

562
00:29:32,364 --> 00:29:34,724
Speaker 2: degenerate bets to make to your heart's content.

563
00:29:35,924 --> 00:29:38,804
Speaker 1: Yes, this is very true, And the two of us

564
00:29:38,804 --> 00:29:41,644
Speaker 1: are both heading out there next week on Monday, so

565
00:29:41,684 --> 00:29:44,484
Speaker 1: that we can both play the same first event, which

566
00:29:44,564 --> 00:29:46,764
Speaker 1: is the opening event of the World Series of Poker,

567
00:29:47,124 --> 00:29:49,524
Speaker 1: the five thousand dollars Players Championship.

568
00:29:49,684 --> 00:29:51,844
Speaker 2: That's new, right that you should have some stupid little

569
00:29:52,164 --> 00:29:54,524
Speaker 2: now get real money for the first event. I like

570
00:29:54,564 --> 00:29:55,644
Speaker 2: that resolutely.

571
00:29:55,724 --> 00:29:57,724
Speaker 1: And it's a freeze out, so for people who don't

572
00:29:57,724 --> 00:30:02,244
Speaker 1: play poker, The World Series is a series of poker

573
00:30:02,284 --> 00:30:06,764
Speaker 1: tournaments that probably has right now the greatest proportion of

574
00:30:06,844 --> 00:30:09,324
Speaker 1: freeze out events, which means you only get to enter

575
00:30:09,524 --> 00:30:13,284
Speaker 1: or one time, and if you bust, you're done. That's it.

576
00:30:13,724 --> 00:30:16,884
Speaker 1: And that's becoming increasingly rare, and I think that that

577
00:30:17,004 --> 00:30:17,924
Speaker 1: makes it really.

578
00:30:17,684 --> 00:30:21,284
Speaker 2: Special, absolutely, and that changes the whole strategy, both in

579
00:30:21,364 --> 00:30:25,444
Speaker 2: terms of your mindset and your opponent's mindset. So one

580
00:30:25,444 --> 00:30:28,284
Speaker 2: thing I think people don't realize. I actually have a

581
00:30:27,964 --> 00:30:31,444
Speaker 2: uh blog post up newsletter at Silver Bulletin with twenty

582
00:30:31,484 --> 00:30:33,764
Speaker 2: one tips for playing the real series of poker.

583
00:30:34,204 --> 00:30:34,524
Speaker 1: Ooh.

584
00:30:34,804 --> 00:30:38,884
Speaker 2: One of the most important tips is don't be afraid

585
00:30:39,164 --> 00:30:42,084
Speaker 2: to bluff, which sounds obvious, right. If you're like a

586
00:30:42,084 --> 00:30:44,204
Speaker 2: professional poker player, you don't need that tip by help, right,

587
00:30:44,204 --> 00:30:46,564
Speaker 2: But if you're like, you know, some amateur and you're like, well,

588
00:30:46,604 --> 00:30:48,404
Speaker 2: I'm kind of the World Series and like it's a

589
00:30:48,404 --> 00:30:50,804
Speaker 2: big deal for me, and also all these players are bad,

590
00:30:50,884 --> 00:30:53,564
Speaker 2: so like win without bluffing, No, dude, you have to

591
00:30:53,604 --> 00:30:56,604
Speaker 2: bluff in part because people are terrified and people will fold,

592
00:30:56,724 --> 00:30:59,404
Speaker 2: and bluffing is an essential part of poker, but especially

593
00:30:59,444 --> 00:31:01,964
Speaker 2: in those like freeze out tournaments. If you are what

594
00:31:02,004 --> 00:31:05,484
Speaker 2: we would call a weekend warrior who a few times

595
00:31:05,484 --> 00:31:07,284
Speaker 2: a year gets to play in a local card room

596
00:31:07,284 --> 00:31:10,284
Speaker 2: in Philly or something and then makes your be week

597
00:31:10,324 --> 00:31:12,924
Speaker 2: long trip out to the World Series and plays two

598
00:31:13,004 --> 00:31:16,204
Speaker 2: or three or four freeze out events. You are absolutely

599
00:31:16,324 --> 00:31:19,844
Speaker 2: terrified to lose, right, and you'll show it with every

600
00:31:19,884 --> 00:31:23,324
Speaker 2: action that you take. I mean, people are utterly transparent

601
00:31:23,764 --> 00:31:25,804
Speaker 2: and predictable about kind of letting you know how much

602
00:31:25,844 --> 00:31:28,564
Speaker 2: they care about maximizing the amount of money they win

603
00:31:29,164 --> 00:31:31,724
Speaker 2: versus maximizing how long they get to play for.

604
00:31:32,284 --> 00:31:34,764
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's absolutely true. And also, thank you

605
00:31:34,844 --> 00:31:38,804
Speaker 1: so much for that great advertisement for my last book,

606
00:31:38,804 --> 00:31:42,084
Speaker 1: The Biggest Bluff, so bluff bluff, bluff, bluff bluff a lot.

607
00:31:42,564 --> 00:31:44,924
Speaker 1: I think that's great advice. And I will also say

608
00:31:45,004 --> 00:31:49,484
Speaker 1: for those weekend warriors for professional players, the one big

609
00:31:49,524 --> 00:31:52,364
Speaker 1: tip I would have is have fun right Like this

610
00:31:52,444 --> 00:31:55,684
Speaker 1: is summer camp. It's a really unique experience. I remember

611
00:31:55,764 --> 00:31:59,444
Speaker 1: my first time walking into the World Series of Poker

612
00:31:59,484 --> 00:32:01,684
Speaker 1: and it was just it took my breath away, the

613
00:32:02,044 --> 00:32:06,004
Speaker 1: just sheer energy and how exciting it was and how

614
00:32:06,044 --> 00:32:09,764
Speaker 1: democratic it was because anyone can enter, right if you

615
00:32:09,844 --> 00:32:12,444
Speaker 1: have the money like you can pay that buy and

616
00:32:12,484 --> 00:32:14,804
Speaker 1: you can play and you have a chance to win.

617
00:32:15,244 --> 00:32:17,764
Speaker 1: And that's not true of any other sport. So take

618
00:32:17,804 --> 00:32:18,444
Speaker 1: advantage of that.

619
00:32:18,644 --> 00:32:21,404
Speaker 2: Two years ago I played against Naymar, who is the

620
00:32:21,684 --> 00:32:25,444
Speaker 2: extraordinary Brazilian soccer player. I play against the boxer Ryan

621
00:32:25,484 --> 00:32:28,724
Speaker 2: Garcia in the main event last year. I seem to

622
00:32:28,724 --> 00:32:32,644
Speaker 2: get Phil Helmu at my Table's a fair bit, right,

623
00:32:32,724 --> 00:32:34,684
Speaker 2: and who knows you might even get like a Maria

624
00:32:34,804 --> 00:32:37,204
Speaker 2: or a Nate. Remember we are.

625
00:32:37,124 --> 00:32:40,764
Speaker 1: Never bluffing, No, never, never, always fold not in our vocabulary.

626
00:32:40,924 --> 00:32:44,284
Speaker 2: Yes, we would never bluff a risky business listener.

627
00:32:44,524 --> 00:32:48,084
Speaker 1: This is true. This is absolutely true. So yes, we'll

628
00:32:48,084 --> 00:32:50,604
Speaker 1: be sharing tips like that one, and we'll be sharing

629
00:32:50,644 --> 00:32:54,524
Speaker 1: our journey along the way. And I want to propose

630
00:32:54,604 --> 00:32:57,404
Speaker 1: something to get us in the spirit. I think we

631
00:32:57,444 --> 00:32:58,084
Speaker 1: should have a bit.

632
00:32:59,044 --> 00:33:01,924
Speaker 2: Can I eight one hundred big Max in twenty four hours?

633
00:33:02,164 --> 00:33:04,964
Speaker 1: No, well, I don't think I can. I don't think

634
00:33:05,004 --> 00:33:06,284
Speaker 1: I can do that bet. I might as well just

635
00:33:06,324 --> 00:33:09,364
Speaker 1: pay you out. Now, let's see which one of us

636
00:33:09,604 --> 00:33:12,204
Speaker 1: gets unluckier during the World Series.

637
00:33:13,204 --> 00:33:14,564
Speaker 2: So you want to be unluckier?

638
00:33:16,764 --> 00:33:19,204
Speaker 1: Yeah, in this case, if you want to win the bet,

639
00:33:19,324 --> 00:33:22,484
Speaker 1: you want to be unluckier. You want to be the

640
00:33:22,484 --> 00:33:25,884
Speaker 1: person who runs worse, who is on the wrong side

641
00:33:25,924 --> 00:33:27,044
Speaker 1: of variants the most.

642
00:33:27,204 --> 00:33:29,604
Speaker 2: I love that. I'd love to actually quantify that. So

643
00:33:30,244 --> 00:33:34,044
Speaker 2: so we have, I think discussed privately a method for

644
00:33:34,124 --> 00:33:37,244
Speaker 2: doing this right, because there are, by the way, many

645
00:33:37,284 --> 00:33:40,164
Speaker 2: forms of luck and poker that are hard to quantify.

646
00:33:40,524 --> 00:33:42,884
Speaker 2: If you get cooler, meaning I get pocket kings and

647
00:33:42,884 --> 00:33:45,764
Speaker 2: Marie gets aces, if she wins, she had the better hand,

648
00:33:45,764 --> 00:33:47,444
Speaker 2: it's not a bad beat per se, but like it's

649
00:33:47,484 --> 00:33:50,804
Speaker 2: pretty unlucky for me. But one way where you can objectively,

650
00:33:51,324 --> 00:33:55,204
Speaker 2: unquestionably quantify luck is when you go all in. There

651
00:33:55,244 --> 00:33:57,084
Speaker 2: are more cards left to come, might be before the plot,

652
00:33:57,164 --> 00:33:59,684
Speaker 2: might be before the river, et cetera. And you see

653
00:33:59,724 --> 00:34:01,364
Speaker 2: if you get a run out that makes you the

654
00:34:01,364 --> 00:34:03,484
Speaker 2: best hand or not. Right, If I am all in

655
00:34:03,564 --> 00:34:06,804
Speaker 2: with ace king against pocket queens, I have whatever at

656
00:34:07,004 --> 00:34:10,284
Speaker 2: six fortyence of winning depending on the suits of the cards.

657
00:34:10,564 --> 00:34:12,684
Speaker 2: You can track that we can kind of compare our

658
00:34:12,764 --> 00:34:17,204
Speaker 2: realized value against our expected value, and whoever does worse

659
00:34:18,604 --> 00:34:20,804
Speaker 2: gets money gets paid off by the person. Is that

660
00:34:20,844 --> 00:34:21,364
Speaker 2: how it works.

661
00:34:21,484 --> 00:34:25,004
Speaker 1: So basically, what we're trying to bet on is who

662
00:34:25,324 --> 00:34:28,684
Speaker 1: runs better and who runs worse in all In situations

663
00:34:28,724 --> 00:34:31,284
Speaker 1: where there are no more decisions, where all your money,

664
00:34:31,364 --> 00:34:33,044
Speaker 1: you know, all your chips are in the middle, what

665
00:34:33,084 --> 00:34:35,724
Speaker 1: we need to figure out is do only all ins

666
00:34:35,764 --> 00:34:38,284
Speaker 1: before the flop count? Does it count if we're all

667
00:34:38,284 --> 00:34:40,164
Speaker 1: in on the flop, right? Does it count if we're

668
00:34:40,164 --> 00:34:41,044
Speaker 1: all in on the turn?

669
00:34:41,124 --> 00:34:42,884
Speaker 2: Any any all in before the river?

670
00:34:43,004 --> 00:34:43,284
Speaker 1: Right?

671
00:34:43,484 --> 00:34:45,724
Speaker 2: Yeah? And by the way, if you're not a poker fit,

672
00:34:46,084 --> 00:34:47,724
Speaker 2: you know, if you go on on the river all

673
00:34:47,764 --> 00:34:49,644
Speaker 2: the cards are revealed, there's no luck. There may be

674
00:34:49,684 --> 00:34:51,204
Speaker 2: luck and you happen to run in like a good

675
00:34:51,204 --> 00:34:54,404
Speaker 2: opponent's hand, right, but there there's no more turn to

676
00:34:54,484 --> 00:34:55,844
Speaker 2: the turn of the deck too, all right.

677
00:34:56,924 --> 00:34:59,604
Speaker 1: So every single time the two of us are all in,

678
00:34:59,724 --> 00:35:02,284
Speaker 1: we are going to record the exact hands that we

679
00:35:02,364 --> 00:35:05,044
Speaker 1: have that our opponents have, if it's against one or

680
00:35:05,044 --> 00:35:07,284
Speaker 1: if it's against two, and then we're going to run

681
00:35:07,444 --> 00:35:09,284
Speaker 1: all of those equities. So we'll be able to ca

682
00:35:09,564 --> 00:35:13,284
Speaker 1: at exactly what the percentages are, and then we'll see

683
00:35:13,284 --> 00:35:15,964
Speaker 1: if we won, we'll see if we lost, and we'll

684
00:35:16,004 --> 00:35:18,804
Speaker 1: be able to have an objective measure of which one

685
00:35:18,844 --> 00:35:22,004
Speaker 1: of us was luckier and which one of us was unluckier.

686
00:35:22,204 --> 00:35:25,004
Speaker 1: So in this particular case, the person who wins the

687
00:35:25,004 --> 00:35:27,124
Speaker 1: bet and wins the money is going to be the

688
00:35:27,164 --> 00:35:31,164
Speaker 1: person who got unluckier. Right, I think that's fair.

689
00:35:31,324 --> 00:35:34,604
Speaker 2: It's kind of like insurance. Right, we're hedgin. How much

690
00:35:34,644 --> 00:35:35,244
Speaker 2: do you want to bet?

691
00:35:35,404 --> 00:35:38,804
Speaker 1: Well, Nate, you suggested a very devilish sum when we

692
00:35:38,924 --> 00:35:42,324
Speaker 1: talked about this before the show, six hundred and sixty

693
00:35:42,364 --> 00:35:44,004
Speaker 1: six dollars and.

694
00:35:43,884 --> 00:35:46,684
Speaker 2: Sixty six cents. Marie, I don't forget those sixty six cents.

695
00:35:46,964 --> 00:35:51,324
Speaker 1: Absolutely, six hundred and sixty six dollars and sixty six cents.

696
00:35:51,644 --> 00:35:54,364
Speaker 1: Let's do it, all right, it's a bet and one

697
00:35:54,604 --> 00:35:56,684
Speaker 1: I might add that I hope you win.

698
00:35:56,964 --> 00:35:59,484
Speaker 2: No, I insist I hope you win, because almost certainly

699
00:35:59,524 --> 00:36:01,964
Speaker 2: the person who wins at six sixty six dot sixty

700
00:36:02,004 --> 00:36:04,644
Speaker 2: six will have lost far more than that and expected

701
00:36:04,684 --> 00:36:07,644
Speaker 2: value loss. Right, it'd much rather. I mean, it might

702
00:36:07,684 --> 00:36:11,364
Speaker 2: be literally worth tens of thousands of dollars Maria in

703
00:36:11,444 --> 00:36:13,764
Speaker 2: terms of how well, maybe probably more than that, frankly, right,

704
00:36:13,764 --> 00:36:16,204
Speaker 2: I mean you're gonna be playing the whole series. I'm not.

705
00:36:16,604 --> 00:36:19,244
Speaker 2: I'm coming and going. It's a fucking election year, right,

706
00:36:20,324 --> 00:36:23,004
Speaker 2: I'll play as much as I can probably three weeks total,

707
00:36:23,044 --> 00:36:25,844
Speaker 2: but you're playing the whole thing. You're gonna have like literally.

708
00:36:25,604 --> 00:36:28,084
Speaker 1: Mostly mostly I'm taking a few weeks off, but yes,

709
00:36:28,244 --> 00:36:30,044
Speaker 1: but I'll be there for a lot of the time.

710
00:36:30,804 --> 00:36:32,404
Speaker 1: But I think that this is going to be fun

711
00:36:32,604 --> 00:36:35,084
Speaker 1: for people to pay attention to and to follow along.

712
00:36:35,284 --> 00:36:37,404
Speaker 1: But I actually also think that this is an important

713
00:36:37,484 --> 00:36:41,004
Speaker 1: prop but for a different reason, because it I think

714
00:36:41,044 --> 00:36:45,524
Speaker 1: it's a really really important calibration of your decision making process.

715
00:36:45,884 --> 00:36:48,004
Speaker 1: So what I always like to tell people, whether they're

716
00:36:48,004 --> 00:36:50,564
Speaker 1: poker players or not, is that you know, poker is

717
00:36:50,604 --> 00:36:53,044
Speaker 1: a skill game, right, but there's an element of luck.

718
00:36:53,244 --> 00:36:56,004
Speaker 1: And I think that's true of almost everything in life.

719
00:36:56,084 --> 00:36:59,284
Speaker 1: There are a lot of situations where you know decision

720
00:36:59,284 --> 00:37:02,484
Speaker 1: making skill, but then you have to get lucky as well.

721
00:37:02,724 --> 00:37:04,404
Speaker 1: And so what this is going to help us do

722
00:37:05,004 --> 00:37:10,044
Speaker 1: is actually put something precise on the luck element. Right,

723
00:37:10,364 --> 00:37:13,644
Speaker 1: how often did we make the right decision because at

724
00:37:13,684 --> 00:37:17,044
Speaker 1: that moment of the all in, were we ahead, were

725
00:37:17,084 --> 00:37:21,284
Speaker 1: we behind? How solid is our decision making process versus

726
00:37:21,684 --> 00:37:24,884
Speaker 1: the cards? What we don't control, right, the outcome the

727
00:37:25,924 --> 00:37:28,564
Speaker 1: deck and the order of the deck. That's the luck factor.

728
00:37:28,604 --> 00:37:30,124
Speaker 1: And we're actually going to be trying to put a

729
00:37:30,204 --> 00:37:32,244
Speaker 1: number on that, and I think that that's such an

730
00:37:32,284 --> 00:37:35,524
Speaker 1: important exercise in decision making in general, to try to

731
00:37:35,564 --> 00:37:39,924
Speaker 1: evaluate whether you're making good decisions and running badly or

732
00:37:39,964 --> 00:37:42,244
Speaker 1: whether you're just making shitty decisions.

733
00:37:42,324 --> 00:37:44,644
Speaker 2: Because it's very possible to feel as though you're getting

734
00:37:45,204 --> 00:37:48,404
Speaker 2: beat up by the luck of the cards, right, because

735
00:37:48,404 --> 00:37:51,044
Speaker 2: you tend to remember those times. So one thing, by

736
00:37:51,084 --> 00:37:54,604
Speaker 2: the way, is that, by definition, when you lose a

737
00:37:54,644 --> 00:37:58,564
Speaker 2: poker tournament, it almost always happens in some frustrating way.

738
00:37:59,004 --> 00:38:00,644
Speaker 2: Either you take a bad beat, or you take a

739
00:38:00,684 --> 00:38:03,444
Speaker 2: cooler or you make what you thought was a plus

740
00:38:03,524 --> 00:38:05,924
Speaker 2: EV bluff and it doesn't work out, or you call

741
00:38:05,964 --> 00:38:09,244
Speaker 2: off and the opponent wasn't bluffing. So because tournaments on

742
00:38:09,444 --> 00:38:12,364
Speaker 2: most always end in failure except for the one in

743
00:38:12,444 --> 00:38:14,244
Speaker 2: whatever five hundred time that you win a five hundred

744
00:38:14,244 --> 00:38:16,724
Speaker 2: person tournament, it's easy to like not account for the

745
00:38:16,724 --> 00:38:18,884
Speaker 2: good luck that you had too, and that can impair

746
00:38:18,964 --> 00:38:22,564
Speaker 2: your self awareness about how you might be playing.

747
00:38:22,564 --> 00:38:27,604
Speaker 1: Frankly, absolutely, one of the most edifying things that I've

748
00:38:27,604 --> 00:38:30,284
Speaker 1: ever done, and I do this during multiple events, is

749
00:38:30,444 --> 00:38:33,204
Speaker 1: write down every single hand of a tournament. And I

750
00:38:33,284 --> 00:38:36,044
Speaker 1: did this for the tournament that I ended up winning

751
00:38:36,204 --> 00:38:39,644
Speaker 1: that kind of launched my poker career in a way,

752
00:38:39,884 --> 00:38:44,044
Speaker 1: and that was the PCA National Championship. I wrote down

753
00:38:44,324 --> 00:38:47,324
Speaker 1: all of the hands and it was really really important

754
00:38:47,324 --> 00:38:50,244
Speaker 1: to me to look back and see how many times

755
00:38:50,284 --> 00:38:53,164
Speaker 1: I just got so lucky, because it's so easy to

756
00:38:53,204 --> 00:38:55,244
Speaker 1: forget that. You know, the moment where I got pocket

757
00:38:55,284 --> 00:38:58,004
Speaker 1: seven's in against aces, right, I should have been out

758
00:38:58,044 --> 00:39:00,804
Speaker 1: of the tournament and instead I ended up having a

759
00:39:00,844 --> 00:39:04,044
Speaker 1: straight and I ended up doubling. So there are moments

760
00:39:04,124 --> 00:39:07,404
Speaker 1: like that, and it's I think that in life in general,

761
00:39:07,444 --> 00:39:10,724
Speaker 1: it's so easy to just freak at those moments, but

762
00:39:10,804 --> 00:39:12,484
Speaker 1: it's so important to remember them.

763
00:39:12,884 --> 00:39:15,204
Speaker 2: By the way, we talked last week about focus during

764
00:39:15,244 --> 00:39:18,404
Speaker 2: poker tournaments, this is a little hack. If you feel

765
00:39:18,404 --> 00:39:20,404
Speaker 2: like there is a day when you would like more focus,

766
00:39:21,084 --> 00:39:24,604
Speaker 2: then forcing yourself to write down every hand you play

767
00:39:24,964 --> 00:39:27,724
Speaker 2: will require you to concentrate more. You can't do it

768
00:39:27,764 --> 00:39:29,364
Speaker 2: every time. It does take a lot of work. But

769
00:39:29,404 --> 00:39:32,884
Speaker 2: like if there's a little bit sleepy, tire, jet lagged, hungover,

770
00:39:33,484 --> 00:39:36,164
Speaker 2: et cetera, then that's a tip that I use. I

771
00:39:36,204 --> 00:39:37,164
Speaker 2: pull out now and then.

772
00:39:37,844 --> 00:39:40,084
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's a great tip night, and it will

773
00:39:40,124 --> 00:39:42,084
Speaker 1: just be it will be helpful to you to become

774
00:39:42,084 --> 00:39:44,564
Speaker 1: a better poker player. I encourage people to do this

775
00:39:44,844 --> 00:39:47,644
Speaker 1: even when they're not playing poker, when they're making decisions

776
00:39:47,724 --> 00:39:49,764
Speaker 1: in an unrelated area. When people are like, oh, how

777
00:39:49,764 --> 00:39:51,924
Speaker 1: do improve my decision agame? Like, you should actually write

778
00:39:51,964 --> 00:39:55,644
Speaker 1: down your entire thought process during the decisions, what you're waiting,

779
00:39:55,964 --> 00:39:58,084
Speaker 1: you know, how you're doing it, how you're thinking about it,

780
00:39:58,204 --> 00:40:00,564
Speaker 1: so that you have an objective record going back, because

781
00:40:00,564 --> 00:40:03,564
Speaker 1: otherwise self serving bias, you know, is very strong.

782
00:40:03,724 --> 00:40:06,124
Speaker 2: I am considering what type of pizza to get for lunch, Marie,

783
00:40:06,284 --> 00:40:08,444
Speaker 2: I'm going to write down the thought process. Right, we'll

784
00:40:08,484 --> 00:40:11,964
Speaker 2: be like a Grandma Square or like Pepperoni or Suprema,

785
00:40:12,044 --> 00:40:12,484
Speaker 2: I don't know.

786
00:40:13,444 --> 00:40:16,124
Speaker 1: I mean, Nate, you're going to go for Detroit style, right,

787
00:40:16,244 --> 00:40:16,764
Speaker 1: given your.

788
00:40:16,644 --> 00:40:20,324
Speaker 2: Meal out, Decroit style is kind of fake. I mean,

789
00:40:20,404 --> 00:40:22,764
Speaker 2: it does exist in Detroit, but the real pizza of

790
00:40:22,844 --> 00:40:25,244
Speaker 2: Michigan is Domino's and Little Cauzers, of which I prefer

791
00:40:25,284 --> 00:40:25,684
Speaker 2: the latter.

792
00:40:26,884 --> 00:40:29,924
Speaker 1: All right, And on that note, Nate, I wish you

793
00:40:30,044 --> 00:40:33,604
Speaker 1: luck next week, and I wish me luck as well,

794
00:40:34,044 --> 00:40:36,284
Speaker 1: and I hope we both do really well and for

795
00:40:36,364 --> 00:40:39,644
Speaker 1: people who want to follow along are you are you

796
00:40:39,684 --> 00:40:41,524
Speaker 1: going to be posting updates? Are you going to be

797
00:40:41,564 --> 00:40:44,364
Speaker 1: posting any action? Can people buy a steak in what

798
00:40:44,364 --> 00:40:44,724
Speaker 1: you're doing?

799
00:40:44,844 --> 00:40:47,644
Speaker 2: Or now I haven't historically sold action, maybe I will

800
00:40:47,684 --> 00:40:49,804
Speaker 2: all I can figure it out, just for just for fun.

801
00:40:50,124 --> 00:40:54,844
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so I actually decided partly for risky business audience.

802
00:40:54,924 --> 00:40:58,164
Speaker 1: But in general I've posted action for a few events

803
00:40:58,204 --> 00:41:01,324
Speaker 1: on the two biggest poker staking sites, which is poker

804
00:41:01,364 --> 00:41:04,044
Speaker 1: steak dot com and steak kicks dot com. And most

805
00:41:04,044 --> 00:41:06,604
Speaker 1: of those events are listed at no markup, which means

806
00:41:06,644 --> 00:41:09,244
Speaker 1: you get it at face value. They're small pieces, you know,

807
00:41:09,564 --> 00:41:11,684
Speaker 1: But I think it's a fun way for people to

808
00:41:11,724 --> 00:41:14,204
Speaker 1: be able to follow along and nate if you do

809
00:41:14,244 --> 00:41:16,604
Speaker 1: that too, maybe we'll do some sort of risky business

810
00:41:16,604 --> 00:41:17,604
Speaker 1: action package.

811
00:41:17,964 --> 00:41:19,764
Speaker 2: Just to be clear what you mean by this, Maria,

812
00:41:19,804 --> 00:41:22,404
Speaker 2: this means that people are basically buying a piece of

813
00:41:22,444 --> 00:41:24,884
Speaker 2: equity in you. If they buy one percent of your

814
00:41:24,924 --> 00:41:28,044
Speaker 2: action and you cash de terment for one hundred thousand dollars,

815
00:41:28,084 --> 00:41:30,164
Speaker 2: they therefore get one thousand dollars for example.

816
00:41:31,204 --> 00:41:33,444
Speaker 1: This is correct. This is correct, And I'm not listing

817
00:41:33,484 --> 00:41:36,004
Speaker 1: every single event that I'm playing, but I have a

818
00:41:36,044 --> 00:41:38,884
Speaker 1: few I think five or six on there, and then

819
00:41:39,284 --> 00:41:42,484
Speaker 1: you are invested in my wins, and unfortunately you're also

820
00:41:42,524 --> 00:41:47,364
Speaker 1: invested in my losses, but your downside is capped. Unlike mine,

821
00:41:47,924 --> 00:41:54,324
Speaker 1: I've got unlimited ownside. One last thing, Nate, before we

822
00:41:54,604 --> 00:41:57,684
Speaker 1: say goodbye to our listeners, I would just like to

823
00:41:58,204 --> 00:42:01,724
Speaker 1: say thank you to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors

824
00:42:01,764 --> 00:42:06,164
Speaker 1: Authority for listening, for tuning in to last week's episode

825
00:42:06,164 --> 00:42:09,564
Speaker 1: of Risky Business and taking the gender pay gap in

826
00:42:09,604 --> 00:42:13,444
Speaker 1: professional basketball seriously, because it turns out that the other

827
00:42:13,524 --> 00:42:18,604
Speaker 1: day they announced a deal to provide one hundred thousand

828
00:42:18,884 --> 00:42:23,564
Speaker 1: dollars in annual sponsorship to every single ACES player for

829
00:42:23,764 --> 00:42:27,124
Speaker 1: this season and for twenty twenty five. Now, of course

830
00:42:27,164 --> 00:42:29,764
Speaker 1: they're now going to be investigated by the WNBA, but

831
00:42:30,204 --> 00:42:33,004
Speaker 1: let's say kudos for a very innovative way and a

832
00:42:33,084 --> 00:42:36,804
Speaker 1: very Las Vegas way of handling the gender pigapp.

833
00:42:36,644 --> 00:42:39,604
Speaker 2: In Las Vegas, everything has a price, including gender equity.

834
00:42:42,444 --> 00:42:45,604
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova and me

835
00:42:45,924 --> 00:42:48,924
Speaker 1: Nate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin

836
00:42:49,004 --> 00:42:53,284
Speaker 1: Industries in iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter.

837
00:42:53,804 --> 00:42:57,684
Speaker 1: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer

838
00:42:57,764 --> 00:42:58,684
Speaker 1: is Jacob Goldstein.

839
00:42:59,044 --> 00:43:01,124
Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us

840
00:43:01,124 --> 00:43:03,324
Speaker 2: who other people can find us more easily and if

841
00:43:03,324 --> 00:43:05,644
Speaker 2: you want to listen to an AD free version, sena

842
00:43:05,684 --> 00:43:07,604
Speaker 2: for Pushkin Plus for six hundred nine a month to

843
00:43:07,604 --> 00:43:10,324
Speaker 2: get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.