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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Survey and South there's we called the

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Speaker 1: Big three of world oil and good Martin OPEC. One

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Speaker 1: is Russia and the other is fact the United States

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Speaker 1: can possibly justify a rate hike in June. They'll go ahead.

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Speaker 1: In Monterrey, Paul is very good at influencing the business cycle.

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Speaker 1: Monterrey Paul z is not very good at influencing structural

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Speaker 1: impediment to growth. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio in eventful

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Speaker 1: morning Michael McKee and Tom Kane. Two meetings, no one

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Speaker 1: not to almost a hat trick up meetings in Vienna.

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Speaker 1: Actually there is a hat trick of meetings. A Ryan

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Speaker 1: show Coote is in Vienna covering Vienna OPEC. He'll probably

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Speaker 1: have a meeting with a coffee shop in Vienna today.

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Speaker 1: But OPEC there seriously with important meetings Oil right now.

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Speaker 1: A little saggy on Brent. We had a fifty print

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Speaker 1: five hours ago. Michael Farrow with US with JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: obviously he and all monitoring droggy with the euro one

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Speaker 1: one in this setting us up for the jobs report tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Alan Krueger Bill gross and Jim Glassman schedule to join

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Speaker 1: us tomorrow. We are thrilled that Mr Frol's colleague, one

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Speaker 1: James Glassman with us tomorrow. The four X Brief this

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Speaker 1: morning is brought to by Interactive Brokers for ex traders

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Speaker 1: focus on tightness of spreads if cost matters. Visit I

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Speaker 1: d k R dot com slash four x to learn

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Speaker 1: about their four X e c N. It includes fourteen

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Speaker 1: of the largest inter bank dealers. One one on euroly

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Speaker 1: end stronger and now much stronger. One O eight seventy six.

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Speaker 1: That's a big move over the last three days. One

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Speaker 1: seventy six nowhere nearer breaking down through support to an

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Speaker 1: ever stronger level. But nevertheless, one O eight seventy four

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Speaker 1: gets my attention. Dollar King at a bid this morning,

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Speaker 1: just a jumble among the main currencies. Looking at euro Sterling,

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Speaker 1: my brexit remain uh a statistic point seven seven four.

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Speaker 1: We'll be quoting that a lot through June. Euro Sterling

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Speaker 1: point seven seven four. Mike, that's less than one pound.

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Speaker 1: That's like point seven seven four pence per euro. Right,

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Speaker 1: you do the best. I think it is. I'm on

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Speaker 1: top of it. I think I just that was the

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Speaker 1: worst for X brief I've ever done. I mean, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: We say good morning to interactive brokers and my deepest sympathies.

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Speaker 1: I'll have to figure out point seven seven four pence.

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Speaker 1: Fortunately we have a pay smarter than both of us.

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Speaker 1: The math in my head, and it sounds right. It

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Speaker 1: sounds right to be joining us. The Oracle of Equities

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Speaker 1: David Wilson Oracle cute nice sort of there, says Oracle

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Speaker 1: is the first stack to talk about today. Shares are

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Speaker 1: down three. A former See Your Finance manager fouled a

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Speaker 1: whistleblower lawsuit against the business software maker yesterday. The plaintiffs

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Speaker 1: s met Lana Blackburn claims she was told to inflate

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Speaker 1: revenue from Oracle's cloud computing services. So that isn't going

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Speaker 1: over well. Uh, you've got Costco wholesales May sales figures

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Speaker 1: and they aren't going overwell either. That's stock down one

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Speaker 1: and a half percent. Uh. Sales at the largest US

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Speaker 1: warehouse club Chains locations open more than a year were

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Speaker 1: unchanged in May, and I was expected the same store

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Speaker 1: sales to rise nine tenths of a percent on average

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Speaker 1: May sales. Though, Well, we'll see from l brands, Let's

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Speaker 1: Stock up two percent. UH sales at the owner of

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Speaker 1: Victoria's Secret and other retailers were also unchanged last month.

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Speaker 1: The difference there is that analysts were looking for a

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Speaker 1: drop of three and a half percent on average for

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Speaker 1: L brands same store sales. A couple of Alice calls

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Speaker 1: him note. Franklin Resources down two percent, the company that

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Speaker 1: runs the Franklin Templeton Neutral Funds, was cut to sell

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Speaker 1: from Neutral ub Us. The firm said a twelve months

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Speaker 1: share price estimate of twenty eight dollars, the lowest of

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Speaker 1: eleven analysts in the Bloomberg survey, and Progressives down one

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Speaker 1: and a half percent. The Auto and Home Assure was

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Speaker 1: lower to sell from Neutral City Group, which said progressives

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Speaker 1: growth may come at the expense of profitability. We have

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Speaker 1: a deal in the software business Click Technologies up four

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Speaker 1: and a half percents. That's Click q l i K,

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Speaker 1: which also happens to be there tis q l i

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Speaker 1: K anyway, They accepted a three billion dollar takeover offer

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Speaker 1: from the private equy firm Toma Bravo, deal value at

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Speaker 1: thirty dollars fifty cents of share. Bear in mind click

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Speaker 1: stock tumble ten percent Tuesday, after Roy's reports at tom

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Speaker 1: of Bravo would offer thirty dollars to share and this

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Speaker 1: is dr closed last week at thirty one nine. We said,

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Speaker 1: good morning Radnor, Pennsylvania and click techn q l I K.

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Speaker 1: You're not a techn company unless you fail. Your company

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Speaker 1: named weirdly. Well, then there's Sienna, which is c I

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Speaker 1: E N A and that stocks up eleven and a

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Speaker 1: half percent. They make fiber optic equipment school second quarters

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Speaker 1: and revenue beating estimates. Share of other five are too

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Speaker 1: companies also higher in FINNERA and Claro to just to

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Speaker 1: bring this up with you because you're so good at it,

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Speaker 1: Golden Sacks with not a markdown on Apple, but nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: a mid course adjustment is what we we saw. People

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Speaker 1: are beginning to tweak Apple in the summer. Is they

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Speaker 1: stagger forward into a new product cycle, aren't they? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: And then there's the question of how long that product

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Speaker 1: cycle is going to be in the sense that three

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Speaker 1: years was it three years? Well, that's sort of the

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Speaker 1: speculation that Apple is going to stretch it out. Traditionally,

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Speaker 1: at least in the last several years, they have introduced

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Speaker 1: new models of iPhones on a two year. Have you

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Speaker 1: ever done this? I have not, I folks, and I

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Speaker 1: wish I could make up a story Mike, like, oh

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Speaker 1: I was in a bar, my iPhone is shattered. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it's to you need to stimulate the US economy.

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Speaker 1: And now a contest to make up the best story

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Speaker 1: for how I shuddered. I only have a hairline and

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Speaker 1: crack and mind fell on two more stories? Quick okay?

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Speaker 1: Quick Box down eight and a half percent fiscal first

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Speaker 1: quarter growth and dollars at the online day of storage

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Speaker 1: company Trail Projections and Joint Global up eight and a

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Speaker 1: half percent. My equipment maker had an unprotected profit in

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Speaker 1: the fiscal second quarter even though revenue to David Wilson,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Michael McKee, you've talked to Bullard

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Speaker 1: Locker recently. Why don't you bring in good Dr FAROLEI well,

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Speaker 1: doctor um. There seems to be Michael Farley is a

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Speaker 1: GPS econmist to JP Morgant Chase. There seems to be

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Speaker 1: a view among faction of Fed bank presidents that we

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Speaker 1: are better off by the Fed raising rates sooner rather

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Speaker 1: than later. There seemed to be two schools of thought.

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Speaker 1: One is that you have to get ahead of inflation,

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Speaker 1: which is certainly arguable given the inflation right, And the

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Speaker 1: other is that we are seeing distortions in markets and

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Speaker 1: in the economy from rates too close to the zero bound.

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Speaker 1: Does eater have residence with you? I would say both

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Speaker 1: to some degree. Um In terms of the former, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Milton Freeman had this old saying that monetary

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Speaker 1: policy effects the economy and inflation with long and variable lags.

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Speaker 1: So you're right, we're not seeing a whole lot of

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Speaker 1: inflation now. But I think in a perfect world, you'd

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Speaker 1: be setting rates today for where you think inflation and

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Speaker 1: the economy will be, say a year from now, which

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Speaker 1: you know it looks for to year, and it's not

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Speaker 1: all that you know inconceivable that inflation could be becoming

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Speaker 1: more of a problem. So I think, you know, the

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Speaker 1: kind of gradual, cautious approach they are taking seems sensible

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Speaker 1: in that regard to get ahead of it, but not

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Speaker 1: act too rashly because we you know, we just don't

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Speaker 1: know where things like the natural rate of unemployment are.

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Speaker 1: Um In terms of financial stability risks, I guess there

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Speaker 1: are maybe a little less convinced because I haven't seen,

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Speaker 1: you know, really strong evidence that raising rates does head

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Speaker 1: off that risk. But you know, it is interesting that

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Speaker 1: you have some people like you know, like Rose and Grin,

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Speaker 1: for instance, coming out recently and saying, you know, hey,

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Speaker 1: this is this is a good reason to kind of

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Speaker 1: keep the process going. I'm not as convinced on that aspect,

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Speaker 1: but I do think that, you know, kind of taking

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Speaker 1: a gradual step thinking about future inflation does seem to

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Speaker 1: be consistent with kind of you know, traditional central banking.

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Speaker 1: I think Dan Trulo took exception to that view today,

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Speaker 1: suggesting the benefits are still greater to keeping interest rates unchanged,

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Speaker 1: that we will see improvements in employment and wages if

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Speaker 1: rates stay lower. Yeah you buy any of that? Yeah? No,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think he makes some reasonable points about,

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Speaker 1: you know, as I said, things like that we don't

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Speaker 1: know where the natural rate of unemployment is, so maybe

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Speaker 1: it's four and a half percent instead of five, in

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Speaker 1: which case we can kind of let things run hot

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Speaker 1: for a little longer. But I don't think, you know,

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Speaker 1: raising rates once every six months kind of precludes the

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Speaker 1: possibility of you know, seeing the unemployment rate. Paul even further,

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Speaker 1: I think what it does say is all right, if

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Speaker 1: if it is four and a half or even four.

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Speaker 1: When we get to that point, we're not going to be,

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Speaker 1: you know, at zero or a very narry zero and

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Speaker 1: to catch up a lot. So I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of somewhere in between, you know, saying hey, we

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Speaker 1: know where the natural it is and therefore we got

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Speaker 1: a hike, versus saying we don't know it wait until inflation.

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Speaker 1: Something in between seems to be, you know, reasonable, Michael,

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Speaker 1: I got a sixty year chart of the inflation adjusted

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Speaker 1: five year in front of me, and as a general statement,

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Speaker 1: the real rate was two percent in the sixties, think mad.

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Speaker 1: Then the real rate was three or two point nine

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Speaker 1: in the nineties. And now we're rolled over to our

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Speaker 1: We're just barely by a submigion positive. This is not normal,

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Speaker 1: right or with the Thraley that you claimed Thraley can

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Speaker 1: can we go to Stockholm when you get your Nobel prize? U?

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Speaker 1: The terminal level? Is this what we need to get

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Speaker 1: used to? I think to a certain degree it probably

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Speaker 1: is um now, maybe not exactly where we are, but

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Speaker 1: but if we can get back to sixties or nineties

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Speaker 1: level growth, then we can get real rates back to two.

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Speaker 1: But there's nothing in the you know constitutions saying it's

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Speaker 1: you know, your birthright that What are retirees do? I

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Speaker 1: got twenty seconds? What are retirees do? Um? You know,

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Speaker 1: I think they're in a in a tough position. A

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Speaker 1: lot of people are in in in tough positions, given

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Speaker 1: the way the economy of alls. I'm not a personal

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Speaker 1: financial advisor, but I think this is this just we'll

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Speaker 1: do that. We'll do that. Next interview, Michael Faroli, Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Michael Faroli. JP. We're checking in

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Speaker 1: with Michael Barr and get the latest world and national headlines.

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Speaker 1: Mike Tom, thank you very much. President Barack Obama will

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Speaker 1: address the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs today.

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Speaker 1: White House officials say the President plans to discuss security

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Speaker 1: challenges facing the US and the role of the next

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Speaker 1: generation of service members will play in protecting the country.

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton will unleash a major foreign policy attack on

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump today using a speech in San Diego to

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Speaker 1: cass the Republican has unqualified. The German Parliament has overwhelmingly

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Speaker 1: approved motion labeling the nineteen shifting killings of Armenians by

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Speaker 1: Ottoman Turks as genocide. It comes at a time as

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Speaker 1: Germany and Turkey are trying to work out a deal

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Speaker 1: on decurbing the flow of refugees into Europe. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus around

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Speaker 1: the world. I'm Michael Barr. Michael bar, thanks so much.

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Speaker 1: Let's do a quick day to check your equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

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Speaker 1: Good morning nationwide. In your cars that you're listening. Futures

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Speaker 1: negative seven, Dow futures negative fifty five yield, lower yield

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Speaker 1: one the Euro one you too. This is Bloomberg's surveillance

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Speaker 1: Market Driver is brought to you by Sector Spider et

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