1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Seema Shaw 11 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: with us right now, global Strategists for Principles. She's just 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: absolutely lovely about the overall picture. Is there a global picture? 13 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: Is there a correlation and interdependencies between ween all these 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 2: different forces that leads to an optimism on American markets, 15 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: optimism on stock market, optimism on total return in bands. 16 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 3: Well, good morning, it's a great question. 17 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 4: So you know, as you said, from a global market perspective, 18 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 4: a global economic perspective, you've got very very different pictures 19 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 4: starting to emerge. 20 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 3: You've got the. 21 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 4: UK, Europe, Japan, and increasingly China. In recession or stagnating, 22 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 4: and then on the outside you've got the US incredibly well. 23 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 4: So one of our questions is, you know, festival course, 24 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 4: what is driving that? And I think something is there 25 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 4: about the geopolitical tensions which are really weighing on on 26 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 4: on the various economies. You have China's struggles, which inevitably, 27 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 4: given how open that economy is, is going to be 28 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 4: leading to some impact on Europe. But on the other hand, 29 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 4: the US is pretty closed. It's actually benefiting. I think, 30 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 4: you know, when we look across the global markets, we 31 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 4: consider US exceptionalism being maine hained for this year, And 32 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 4: of course there could be some dumb pressures. They don't 33 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 4: entirely escape unscathed from global weakness, but overall, this is 34 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 4: certainly another year where the US certainly comes up to 35 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 4: the reason. 36 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 2: I brought the idea of Paul's because I'll steal from anyone. 37 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: Greg Dako over Ernst and young E y has the 38 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: chart of my day and it just shows the shocking 39 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,839 Speaker 2: US exceptionalism from twenty twenty one. 40 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 5: Ye's not new, I mean, as a chief global strategist 41 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 5: to principal asset management kind of how do you think 42 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 5: about it. When you touch your clients, where do you 43 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 5: can you really talk to them about constructively about markets 44 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 5: outside of the US right now? 45 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 4: Well, so, I think there are a couple of pockets 46 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 4: right so typically within emerging markets, we're really thinking about 47 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 4: Latin America. That is, you know, you've got the fundamentals intoune, 48 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 4: you've got the valuations because at least you know, if 49 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 4: you're looking at Brazil and Chile, you've actually rarely seen 50 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,839 Speaker 4: those markets cheaper than they are today. And then they're 51 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 4: also in tuned with a lot of the secular themes 52 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 4: that you're seeing come through for the market, so reshoring, 53 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 4: EV vehicles and the natural resources that go into that. 54 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 4: A lot of that comes from Latin America. So that's 55 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 4: where things concide and they look pretty good. But I 56 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 4: agree with you, it is a fairly tough conversation with 57 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 4: clients at the moment to talk about international markets, and 58 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 4: even with portfolio managers. You know, one question that we've 59 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 4: had over and over again from a last allocation perspective 60 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 4: is PM asking us, you know, is there ever going 61 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 4: to be a time where I'm going to allocate to 62 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 4: Europe overweight relative to the US. For more than just 63 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,559 Speaker 4: a tactical trade, more than just two or three months, 64 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 4: and we went away. We did all the research, and 65 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 4: the thing that's coming about is you have three criteria 66 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 4: for that to happen, where Europe really outperforms the US, 67 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: or at least US exception doesn't acceptism doesn't last for 68 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 4: more than a couple of months. 69 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 3: One is that you have to. 70 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 4: Have US economic growth course weaker than the rest of 71 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 4: the world, somewhat unlikely at this point in time. You 72 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 4: need to have some kind of trade breakthrough, so think 73 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 4: about WTO and the emergence of China at that point. 74 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 3: The US exceptional didn't really work out so well at 75 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 3: that point. 76 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 4: And then the third thing is is that you need 77 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 4: some kind of additional secular driver, some kind of technology 78 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 4: which isn't really focused on the US. And on all 79 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 4: three of those fronts, this year doesn't look particularly positive 80 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: for international markets. So for that reason, right now, and 81 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 4: actually even if I'm looking out at the next year 82 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 4: or so, it does seem to us that something significant 83 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 4: needs to change for the US market to no longer 84 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: be at the forefront of the equity market games. 85 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 5: So SIMA, one of the things here we as we 86 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 5: look to European markets, is just valuation. Evaluation is so 87 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 5: compelling for European markets visa be the US for a 88 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 5: variety of reasons, including you know, the relative lower weighting 89 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 5: of tech in Europe than it is in the US. 90 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 5: Is that is that a kind of a trap, a 91 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 5: little bit of a value trap looking at Europe as 92 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 5: a value opportunity. 93 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 3: I think, unfortunately it is. 94 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 4: I've used those words value trap myself for when I 95 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 4: talk about it does look very attractive, but from a 96 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 4: fundamental perspective, the economy really you struggling. You know, we 97 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 4: look out over the rest of the year and for 98 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 4: sure ECB rate cuts will come, and that probably come 99 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 4: with some kind of urgency which should add some drive 100 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 4: into the European economy. That is likely to happen. But 101 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 4: for example, if we look out even further out towards 102 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 4: towards the end of the year, concerns around the U 103 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 4: selections and what the impact could be on Europe are 104 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 4: really weighing on investors because they worry. They look from 105 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 4: a defense standpoint, if anything were to change with regards 106 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 4: to NATO, with regards to Ukraine spending, well, then Europe 107 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 4: is sitting at the forefront with potential concerns right, natural 108 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 4: gas prices returning back to the market. If you think 109 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 4: about the trade tensions with China, well again, who is 110 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 4: another major losers from that? It's a European economy. So 111 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 4: we are looking at as a bit of value trap. 112 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 4: The only change to that may be if technology were 113 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 4: to really disappoint and that starts drugged down in the market. 114 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: We're not thinking that's likely at this point. 115 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 2: There, it's synergy Tuesday. Is that what twenty twenty four 116 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: looks like that everybody that's not making it decides they 117 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 2: got a mate to take out a billion yere. 118 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 6: A billion there. 119 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 4: Well, look in twenty twenty four, our key message to 120 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 4: investors has been it's tough Q one. It might even 121 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 4: be a tough second quarter of the year, but we 122 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 4: need to be getting prepared. 123 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 3: To deploy your assets. 124 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 4: You know, look at where the value opportunities, where the 125 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:24,919 Speaker 4: value and the fundamentals of meeting of course, not just 126 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 4: the value traps. 127 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: Because we do think that the second half of the 128 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 3: year is going to be a. 129 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 4: Lot more constructive than what we're seeing right now, and 130 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 4: this is a good opportunity for investors to be thinking 131 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 4: about where are those synergies and where. 132 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 3: Can they start. You know, they've got a bit of time. 133 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 4: I haven't got much time, but I've got some time 134 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 4: to start deploying those assets. 135 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 3: And it's very important that they start doing. 136 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 4: So right now. 137 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 6: Thank you. 138 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: Semasha with us this morning with Principle to give us 139 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: an update. Lots more equity coverage here as you look 140 00:06:49,600 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 2: at the mystery of the stack market. Such an important interview. 141 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 2: She's so young. I don't want to say legend, but 142 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: Christina Moore is a legend. She's vice chairman M and 143 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: A had a small bank called City Group, and we're 144 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 2: thrilled she's with us today. But she has a deep 145 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 2: trenchant experience in the ebbs and flows of what we 146 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: do economics, finance, investment and folding it into international relations. 147 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 2: There's the great story of Laurence Summers sitting for his 148 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: oral and the professor said, well, we survived that you 149 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: had it on the other side of it. He had 150 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 2: the chalk in his hand. Stan Fisher told me once 151 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: that Paul Samuel was so angry at him that he 152 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 2: grabbed the chalk out of Stanley Fisher's hands and threw 153 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 2: it against the board. What was it like having Laurence 154 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: Summers as your teaching assistant at a small Charles River 155 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 2: school that must have been like the worst in the world. 156 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 7: It was an honor. Actually, he's so smart and he's 157 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 7: so practical that he made economics easy for even those 158 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 7: of us who were kind. 159 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 2: Of like Steve Roach at yel where there was a 160 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 2: quality scene. 161 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 7: I wouldn't know. I didn't get close to that side 162 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 7: of the scale. 163 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 2: Okay, why don't we know that? Christina Moore with this 164 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 2: year on the m and A of the day, what 165 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 2: a perfect day to. 166 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 6: Have you in here. It's Centergy Thursday. 167 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 7: Is merging Monday? 168 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 2: Yes, well it's Tuesday though she's working a five day 169 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: week at City Group Jane, just so you know, she 170 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 2: didn't take Monday off. 171 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 6: Let me get to the chase. Does synergy work? 172 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 7: Yes? I think that what you've seen in the last 173 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 7: half of last year and what you're seeing in the 174 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 7: first two months of this year is the return of 175 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 7: the corporate acquisition. Corporate acquirers were about eighty percent of 176 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 7: the market and eighty percent of the market so far 177 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 7: this year. We're about seventy percent of the North American market. 178 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 7: Last year This is old driven by the need to 179 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 7: demonstrate growth and importantly the need to show greater margins. 180 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 7: Maybe back up for a minute and explain this. If 181 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 7: we look at some of the work we've done internally 182 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 7: on what drives stock price performance and returns. Growth is 183 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 7: probably superior growth is probably responsible for about two turns 184 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 7: on an even dab basis for market performance in twenty 185 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 7: twenty three. But margin improvement is another. 186 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 6: So there sceneries are they? Do you see? 187 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: Come on, there's like three major mergers today, including the 188 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 2: Barclays at Riard, which I don't want you to comment on, 189 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 2: but the bottom line is they got to cut Paul billions. Yeah, 190 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 2: I mean they've got to cut billions, of course, right. 191 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 7: I think that I haven't seen the numbers yet on 192 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 7: the Capital one Discover merger today, but certainly their cost 193 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 7: savings and cost synergies utilizing the platform more appropriate or 194 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 7: aggressively are an important part of what drives the economics, 195 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 7: in particular of stock transactions such as say the the 196 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 7: Capital one Discover merger. But the other part of the 197 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 7: synergy equation, and you don't it doesn't really get talked 198 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 7: about in the announcement. It really doesn't get valued as 199 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 7: much by the analysts. But an important part of the 200 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 7: synergy equation are revenue and platform synergies. And I think 201 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 7: that's one of the things that you will see in 202 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 7: some of these large acquisitions, both on the energy side, 203 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 7: on the and you know, on the healthcare side. Certainly, 204 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 7: I think that'll be an important part of the acquisition 205 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 7: that was announced today. 206 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 5: So Christine on the Bloomberg terminal, we have a great 207 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 5: function M A go and every time I see a 208 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 5: trade cross the tape, I go, M go to see 209 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 5: which of my friends all Wall Street to getting paid. 210 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 5: Now I don't look at that anymore. Now I look 211 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 5: at see who the legal representatives are because I think 212 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 5: they are more important than the bankers today. Because I've 213 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 5: got some regulators down in Washington, DC that I don't 214 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 5: think they're very merger friendly. Talk to us about the 215 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 5: regulatory environment for getting deals approved. It seems like, you know, 216 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 5: the regulars are really looking at a lot of deals 217 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 5: a lot of industries. 218 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 7: Sure, I think that obviously the disadministration's level of enforcement 219 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 7: has been more active. They have put forward new merger 220 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 7: guidelines for the first time since twenty ten that we've 221 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,479 Speaker 7: seen a change in those merger guidelines. They're certainly more aggressive. 222 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 7: They have lower levels of concentration, certainly lower market share targets, 223 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 7: and indeed take some novel approaches to enforcements such as 224 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 7: concentrate compound trands, acquirers, some aspects of vertical integration. So 225 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 7: certainly the DOJ and the FDC have become more vocal 226 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 7: and more active. But when we actually look at what's 227 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 7: happened over the past year, when these challenges have been 228 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 7: taken to court, you've seen the courts react a little differently. 229 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 7: You've seen the courts and hearing a little more directly 230 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 7: to the twenty ten level of twenty ten guidelines. So 231 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 7: I think it's become a little clearer what one you know, 232 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 7: kind of what the what the cans and cannots do. 233 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 7: But certainly I would always hire a good lawyer if 234 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 7: I were doing a deal exactly, and certainly in this 235 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 7: in this environment, if you're doing the kind of horizontal 236 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 7: mergers that are the flavor of the day, you certainly 237 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 7: want to make sure that you have the right anti 238 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 7: trust counsel. 239 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 5: Well at the capital one's got walkedel Liptin and discovers 240 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 5: got Salvn Cromwell. So two pretty good firms right there. 241 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 5: So talk to us here about twenty twenty four. I mean, 242 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 5: are we gonna have more activities simply because the market 243 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 5: anticipates rates coming down and maybe some of your clients 244 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 5: are gonna be a little bit more inclined to be aggressive. 245 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 7: Certainly, I think that, you know, I think there are 246 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 7: three parts of the merger market, all of which have 247 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 7: the prospect for improving in twenty twenty four. First, we've 248 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 7: talked a little bit about the strategic acquirers. I think 249 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 7: that the combination of the increased corporate confidence the fact 250 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 7: that what you're seeing among the strategic acquirers is the 251 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 7: real benefits that the larger strategics, in particular those that 252 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 7: have like A ratings and above have in terms of benefit. 253 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: Of the cost of capital. 254 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 7: They have cheaper cost of capital and the ability to 255 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 7: outearn almost any Well. 256 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 2: That's the heart of the matter, not seeing tall ups 257 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,559 Speaker 2: as the gravity's return to the market, including. 258 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 6: Your M and A world. The answer is money was 259 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 6: nothing dire strait. 260 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 2: Okay, Now money costs something that's going to have us 261 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 2: with an M and a frenzy what I called last year, 262 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 2: the Great American roll up, Isn't that what we're going 263 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 2: to see. 264 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 7: I think we're going to see increased strategic activity, as 265 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 7: they said, corporate confidence, cost of capital, those types, and 266 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 7: the search for growth and margin improvement. That certainly will 267 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 7: continue to drive the strategic dialogue, and I think we 268 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 7: see that amongst all of our clients. The second part 269 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 7: of the market that is important is the corporate deaconsolidations, 270 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,839 Speaker 7: the spinoffs. For example, last year we saw about four 271 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 7: hundred billion of spinoff transactions, about twenty five percent of 272 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 7: the market, certainly more than we've seen on average, and 273 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,959 Speaker 7: that's being driven by the fact that if you look 274 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 7: across America or across the S and P five hundred 275 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 7: rather almost thirty percent of the multi divisional companies have 276 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 7: divisions that aren't earning their cost of capital. I think 277 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 7: that's driving spinoff activity, that's driving corporate divests activity. That'll 278 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 7: be an important part of what happens this year. And finally, 279 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 7: you have the financial sponsor market, which in twenty twenty 280 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 7: three was at its lowest level since twenty and thirteen 281 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 7: at about five hundred and thirty five billion. That market 282 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 7: with rate stability, with improvements in the high yield market. 283 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 7: With the one point five trillion of cash that's dry 284 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 7: powder is available among the sponsors, market is set to improve. 285 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 6: Can you come back? 286 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: Because you know we wanted this to be a two hour. 287 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 5: Conversation subway ride from three eighty a greenwache it is. 288 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 6: Well, are you or are you at Midtown? 289 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 7: Oh? 290 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 5: We're the worst elevators, the worst elevators on Wall Street. 291 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 2: They are, but we have some of the best people. 292 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 6: Yes, you do, Christina Moore of City Group, thank you 293 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 6: so much. Let's do this again. 294 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 2: This is a joy and an honor and I'm gonna 295 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: frame this the only way I can do it. Stephen 296 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 2: Roach of Morgan Stanley and Yale is certain I'm a fraud, 297 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 2: and he knows that because I'll go, well, I just 298 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 2: got back from China. In my China is the airport 299 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: where you go down the arrivals and there's a big 300 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley banner across the top, signaling Morgan Stanley's commitment 301 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 2: to China, to the Pacific Rim. 302 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 6: And then there's the car. 303 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: Usually fancy to the Mandarin and then there's mushorgs and 304 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 2: three skyscrapers, and then they get back on the cargo 305 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 2: back to the airport, go home, and I say I 306 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 2: went to China. 307 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 6: Stephen Roach has been to China. 308 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 2: And the single sentence here folks off of his ftssay 309 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: which was viral. Here it pains me to admit it, 310 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: but Hong Kong is now over forever from Morgan Stanley 311 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 2: and Yale University, Stephen Roach, Stephen, what a painful essay 312 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 2: to write. When was Hong Kong over? 313 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 8: Well, it's been a gradual process. 314 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 6: Tom. 315 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 8: Always good to be with you, by the way, and 316 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 8: reminisce over the way he used to be. You know, 317 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 8: there was a lot of handwringing over the you know, 318 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 8: the time of the handover from to the PRC in 319 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 8: nineteen ninety seven, and that ringing was very much overblown 320 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 8: at the time. I mean, Hong Kong enjoyed an extraordinary 321 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 8: burst of economic activity, financial market vitality as in the 322 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 8: Chinese growth and development story exploded. But in the last 323 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 8: several years, and I guess the turning point were the 324 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 8: massive protests and demonstrations of late twenty nineteen that evoked 325 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 8: a sharp political response for the PRC that, in conjunction 326 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 8: with COVID, with the severe structural headwinds bearing down on 327 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 8: the Chinese economy, and with the intensified conflict between the 328 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 8: US and China that has left Hong Kong sort of 329 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 8: stuck in the crossfire. All of that has come together 330 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 8: to really paint a much more dire picture than we'd 331 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 8: like to think. 332 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 2: Stephen, my dialogue with Chris Patten, Lord Patten, who is 333 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 2: the British representative to this tobacco. There's always been great emotion, 334 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 2: including the day it was given up, and different other 335 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 2: signposts along the way. Can the Chinese find a middle ground? 336 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,479 Speaker 2: Can Beijing find a new Hong Kong that alludes to 337 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 2: what you and Lord Patten knew. 338 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 8: I think it's going to be hard to recreate the 339 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 8: Hong Kong that we all loved. I mean, you got 340 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 8: to be careful here. I mean I love Hong Kong. 341 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 8: I still do. I have great friends there. I go 342 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 8: back there a lot. I was there three times last year, 343 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 8: even though one of the Hong Kong legislators wrote in 344 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 8: a letter to the FT that I hadn't been there 345 00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 8: in years. I've got great friends and context and a 346 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 8: wonderful history there. But you know, just like an investor 347 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 8: should not be in love with a stock when it 348 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 8: reaches evaluation target. I think you've got to be careful 349 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 8: about being in love with a city, or a system 350 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 8: or a nation and letting that cloud your analytical assessment 351 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 8: of the problems. 352 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 5: So Steve and I just coincidentally, I happened to be 353 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 5: in Hong Kong the exact day that of the handover. 354 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 5: And you know, back in the day, you had if 355 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 5: you're on Global Wall Street, you had to do a 356 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 5: twarf duty in Hong Kong, much like in the eighties 357 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 5: you had to do a twarf duty in Tokyo. Where 358 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,959 Speaker 5: do the Western financial institutions how are they viewing Hong 359 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 5: Kong going forward? 360 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 8: Well, I think there's an understandable concern over the future 361 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 8: of Hong Kong. You know, my old firm, Morgan Stanley, 362 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 8: is very committed to Hong Kong. Right now, it's the 363 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 8: head quarters of the Asian operations excluding Japan. And yet 364 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 8: you know, when you go back and talk to people, 365 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 8: at least in twenty twenty three, they want to feel optimistic. 366 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 8: They want to believe that Hong Kong is still a 367 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 8: sustainable platform for business. But you know there's a nervous 368 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 8: they're looking over their shoulder and they live through these massive, 369 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 8: unprecedented protests, and you know, they focus very much on 370 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 8: what is going on in Beijing and Hijin pings very tough, 371 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 8: ideologically driven clamp down on the PRC, and they know 372 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 8: that it has implications for Hong Kong as well. 373 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 5: It's interesting Stevens just kind of goes to the greater issue. 374 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 5: You know, there are, obviously are geopolitical tensions between the 375 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 5: West and China seemingly growing in scale. Yet we still 376 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 5: see Western business leaders going to China, Tim Cook, whoever 377 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 5: you want, Elon Musk, it's how do you think the 378 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 5: Western corporate world is viewing greater China these days? 379 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 8: Well, like I was with, you know, at the same 380 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 8: meeting that Tim Cook was in last March, when he 381 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 8: sort of made a token appearance to the China Development Forum, 382 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 8: he was in and out. It was not necessarily, you know, 383 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 8: a man who wanted to roll up his sleeves and 384 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 8: go to work and trying to understand what was going 385 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 8: on in China. He did it because, as he said, 386 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 8: when he met with the Premier Apple was celebrating his 387 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 8: thirtieth anniversary of being present in China, and they have 388 00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 8: a major cub into that. A few weeks later, you know, 389 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 8: he was in India opening a new store in Mumbai 390 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 8: and talking about Apple's new commitment to India as well. 391 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 8: So you know there's again there. They're hedging their bets. 392 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 2: Right, Steve, I want to talk about accidental conflict, Roach, 393 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 2: writes politific folks. So he's over Yale like Christina Moore 394 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 2: is talking about Harvard Yep doing an easy a. There's 395 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,479 Speaker 2: no easy a at Yale. No, I mean Roach has 396 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 2: given out qualities, sees like nobody. Steve, you did accidental 397 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 2: conflict America China and the clash of the false narratives, 398 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 2: and it made me think of the great Catherine man 399 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 2: now at the Bank of England and the idea of 400 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 2: the codependency between China and the United States is our 401 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 2: codependency unchanged? How did you address that an accidental conflict? 402 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 8: Well, I argued Tom that the codependency framework is still 403 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 8: a good framework to describe the relationship. But this is 404 00:22:53,200 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 8: a case in human relationships. It's a precarious relationship between individuals, 405 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 8: and I would dare say economies, and when one partner 406 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 8: in this case, one economy starts to go its own 407 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 8: way the other fields scorned and lashes back and conflict emerges, 408 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 8: and we're now in you know what psychologists who study 409 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 8: human codependency would call the classic conflict phase of codependency. 410 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 8: And you know that's that's the quagmire that is proving 411 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 8: so difficult to climb out of. 412 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,680 Speaker 2: Stephen Roach, thank you for being with us today to 413 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:38,840 Speaker 2: start this week off strong. 414 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 6: On Tuesday. 415 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,400 Speaker 2: Stephen Roach, of course, I just can't say enough about 416 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 2: the effort accidental conflict. I said it was anticipated, and 417 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 2: yes it was Kirkus just you know, within there. Well, 418 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: the Financial Times makes it the best book of the 419 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 2: year in economics, and that's frankly to be expected from 420 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 2: doctor Roach. Stephen Roach. 421 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, University at. 422 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 2: Lisa here with the newspapers this morning, they were so adult, 423 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 2: they were so like, you know, go to class or whatever, 424 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 2: you know, and like, Lisa, give me something like what 425 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 2: do you start with this morning? 426 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 9: Laser we're talking about would help crazy day today. Teachers 427 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 9: a lot more are taking sick days since the pandemic, 428 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 9: so there is a shortage of substitutes apparently, So this 429 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 9: is happening a lot. 430 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 6: Give a sick day for three months in the summer well. 431 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 9: Here's the thing they do get. They receive paid sick 432 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 9: days and a small number of personal days too. But 433 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 9: here's the thing. Over twenty twenty two, twenty thirty three, 434 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,160 Speaker 9: in New York City, nearly one in five public school 435 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 9: teachers they were absent about eleven days or more. So 436 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 9: it's increasing. That was higher from the previous year and 437 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 9: from before the pandemic. 438 00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 7: I mean, my daughter sees it. 439 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 9: You know, there's always a and it's not even because 440 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,719 Speaker 9: they're sick, but because someone in their family, like they 441 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 9: get things to take. 442 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 5: And just in my town, on the grounds of the 443 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 5: high school are signs planted substitute teachers needed, you know, 444 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 5: and I hadn't seen that before. So and this isn't 445 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 5: a good school. 446 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 2: I think it's just the class work with the substitutes 447 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 2: exactly so successful, exactly. 448 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 5: I just think it's just it just feels like people, 449 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 5: I don't know, I think post pandemic, their work life 450 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 5: balance has changed, and people like I agree. I just 451 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 5: on the balance, I can be a little bit more life, 452 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 5: a little bit less work. And if you're a teacher, 453 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 5: that means I mean. 454 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,879 Speaker 2: Contrary to what people think, I have no social life 455 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 2: and we're trying, We're like forcing ourselves to get out 456 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 2: of pandemic. Like you know, I'm in sweatpants and you. 457 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 6: Know Lulu Lemon with the bow tie things. 458 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 2: All weekend and like, okay, get dressed, go out do something. 459 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 6: Are you still there at Lisa or are. 460 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 9: You like, like five days, I'm still on the thought 461 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 9: of Yeah, that's a tough image, right. 462 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,880 Speaker 6: It's painful to see. Why don't we find another theme? 463 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 6: Save the show on YouTube? Inn Apple? Okay? 464 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 9: The Learner family apparently no longer exploring a sale of 465 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 9: the Washington Nationals. This is from Mark Learner, wh's the 466 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 9: club's managing principal owner. He told this to The Washington 467 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 9: Post on Monday, so apparently they came up with the 468 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 9: decision a while ago. They say they're very happy with 469 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 9: owning the team, bringing it back to bringing back a 470 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 9: ring one day because they won the World Series back 471 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 9: in twenty nineteen. But there's been a lot of uncertainty 472 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 9: around it. 473 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 5: And I'm surprised they took this off the market because 474 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 5: we just saw the Baltimore Oils trade recently, and what 475 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 5: we've seen in professional sports is these values continue to 476 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 5: go hire and hire and hire, and no matter who 477 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 5: you are and what franchisees, there's somebody out there willing 478 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 5: to pay a big, big number for your So I'd 479 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 5: be surprised if they didn't get good interest for their team. 480 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 5: So it's probably a family dynamics. 481 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 2: I just quickly hear Ted Larner starting with two hundred 482 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,919 Speaker 2: and fifty dollars borrowed from his wife. I think built 483 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 2: the Washington real estate combine that took the Montreal Expos 484 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 2: to Washington, and the family's got a huge attachment, to 485 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 2: say the least. I guess David Rubinstein's not gonna bid 486 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 2: because Northwestern the media there is so complex. 487 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,360 Speaker 5: I think it's I think it's amazing that there are 488 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 5: two you know, there's two towns, Baltimore and Washington, literally 489 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 5: thirty forty miles apart, each have franchises. 490 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 6: It's like old days. 491 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, and football in baseball. It's just it's amazing how 492 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 5: the leagues allowed that. 493 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 6: But it works. 494 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 9: Next, all right, do you remember the Salt Bay You know, 495 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 9: the one who does this over the get a look 496 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 9: at YouTube that's in London, in the Stak correct the 497 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,879 Speaker 9: Steak has in London. He does that little viral sprinkling 498 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,679 Speaker 9: across the stakes. He has his own restaurant there. So 499 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,880 Speaker 9: you know that energy prices are. 500 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 7: Sky high over in the UK. 501 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 9: So this is just an example of how much of 502 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 9: reality this set in that restaurant. It's become, you know, popular, 503 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 9: but they are turning off their central heating after closing 504 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 9: during peak hours when heating demand is lower, and they're 505 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 9: turning off lights during closing hours. So they're trying to 506 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 9: penny pinch. I guess everywhere. 507 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,360 Speaker 5: Park Tower Hotel in knights Bridge, and that's which Tom 508 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 5: is familiar with because they have the six hundred and 509 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 5: eighty pound Wygo striploin or the six hundred and thirty 510 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,440 Speaker 5: pounds a giant Tomahawk steak. It's all over that, Yeah. 511 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 6: It is. 512 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 2: I go to Rules, you know, I said a Francy 513 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 2: in the quad, I have a table that rules right 514 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 2: with the window we look back, and I've actually sat 515 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 2: at the James Bond table at Rules where they filmed 516 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 2: one of the movies, and that's like authentic, Like it's 517 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 2: the stuff is tasteless. 518 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 6: I mean, Francine's chowing. 519 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 2: It down and you know, it's like just too much 520 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 2: of cuisine over there. It's too rich for me. 521 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 6: And all that. 522 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 2: But the heating with John Ferrell's been really really articulate 523 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 2: on this. It's not like America. There's some real hardship 524 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,800 Speaker 2: there only's utility. 525 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 5: It is, it is, it's amazing, and but the economy 526 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 5: there is just not picked up like we have here. 527 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 2: Well to say the least, the future is negative sixteen 528 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 2: Leasta materio, thank you so much? 529 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 6: Is there? 530 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 2: Did you see she hasn't warn her Yankees? Jackets and 531 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 2: pictures and catchers has its ascond. 532 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 5: Looking at rules right here. Lots of stars there, Tom, yeah, 533 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,640 Speaker 5: lots of made in lane in London, lots of oldest 534 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 5: restaurant in London. It's traditional. 535 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 2: I walk in and they make a you know, make 536 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 2: a dickenziean short swirl, and then Francine walks in. It's 537 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 2: like the place stops of course, Oh my god, claw 538 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 2: I don't even exist. 539 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 7: That's it. 540 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 6: Rules you by that windows and it's it's you know, 541 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 6: it's like unedible. They have a cocktail bar upstairs. It's 542 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 6: literally out of the movies. 543 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 2: Rules in London is something to try once. This is 544 00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 2: the bloomerg Alas podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 545 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 546 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 547 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 548 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 549 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 550 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 551 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.