1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Den 5 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: Edwards and I know we are as good as our team, 6 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: and our teams sometimes will they do things because they're brilliant, 7 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: and also the surveillance teams sometimes you get lucky. We 8 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: did that before December thirty one when we said, Tony Cosenzi, 9 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: you need to start our year, and then we enjoyed 10 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: the summer thirty one where things fell out about concenz 11 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: the PIMCO. He's definitive on short term paper. And bring 12 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: up the chart of here McKinnon, if you would. This 13 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: is the I've never shown this chart before. I'm only 14 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: doing this because Conscendi showed up in an early hour 15 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: one year two year difference in yield and you've got 16 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: the oudities before the crisis and then the normality of 17 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: a difference in yield between a two year in a 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: one year, and we fell off a cliff. Tony Cocenzi, 19 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 1: let's start with the why of the short term paper market. 20 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: Why is the one year two year yield inverted? Where 21 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: one year yields are higher than two year yields. This 22 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: is a crystal ball is telling you about the future 23 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: and what the market thinks of the Fed and what 24 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: it will do with this policy rate. We know the 25 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: Fed in December racist policy rate to two and a 26 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: quarter two and a half. Here the market saying it 27 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: will go back below two at some point. Are they 28 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: predicting a rate cut at market point? Predicting a rate 29 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: cut at the beginning part of next year, so we 30 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: won't be roaring into the twenties like we did a 31 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: hundred years ago. Well, you could be stumbling into the twenties, 32 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: is what the market is saying. What everybody wants to 33 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: know in global Wall Street from you is when we 34 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: talk commercial paper or library ois and the other arcane 35 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: stuff that you and and Jerome Schneider and others at 36 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: PIMCO look at every day. Okay, great? Is that a 37 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: liquidity crisis is an attention within the corporate space. Absolutely 38 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: not a liquidity crisis. There's still over one trillion dollars 39 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: of extra money that banks could utilize to keep themselves. Liquid. 40 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: Banks are in exceptionally good shape today. Still many worry 41 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: about it, but there's no there aren't the excessis there 42 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: that many people cite. What is concerning is that we 43 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: this all began in markets, the stress with political factors, 44 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: not macroeconomic ones. It was related to briggsit was related 45 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: to Italy, it was related to trade stories. Now what 46 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: markets have to worry about is the feedback loop where 47 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: what happened in markets because of politics sus to feedback 48 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,679 Speaker 1: into the real economy and then back into the markets. 49 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: So there's one of the major questions for this year 50 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: is whether we can get past the tenth year of 51 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: expansion in June, making it a record dating back to 52 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: the mid eighteen hundreds or not when we stumble into 53 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: the twenties or roar like a hundred years ago. It 54 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: looks like we may stumble, but there's a lot that 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: could happen that changes things. When this sense of pessimism, 56 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: of course, it's an accumulation period. Weren't you be thinking 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: about building assets? But be careful, very careful about that. Okay, Tony, 58 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: good morning to you. So if this inversion at the 59 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: very short end, then it's telling us something kind of 60 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: gloomy about where we'll be roaring or stumbling into the twenties. 61 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: And what kind of lag does this normally deliver them? 62 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: When you look at the shorter end of the curve, 63 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 1: what kind of lag does this kind of signal usually require. Well, 64 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: it depends. Markets will tend to be correct on this, 65 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: but not only call. Let's say nine months would be 66 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: a period where it has Christine accuracy. One looking out 67 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: a year or two not so great. Think about a 68 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: year ago markets said the Fed would put his policy 69 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: very potentially yet around three now instead of rate hikes 70 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: that would stay in place for through and even markets 71 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: think there'll be a rate cut. So it shows you 72 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: that looking past one year out becomes a bit precarious. 73 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: And so this four cast that markets have today for 74 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: an interest rate cut may not be correct. But is 75 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: it that important anyway? The global story and interest rates 76 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: is quite benign. Look at the German boon today, the 77 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: tenure point one five. There are trillions of dollars and 78 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: ten trillion dollars of bonds globally negative yielding. So the 79 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: worry and markets today is very little to do with 80 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 1: interest rates and the FEDS rate hikes. It has a 81 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: lot to do with the other factors I mentioned. I 82 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: think one final final point of breaks it. The Bank 83 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: of England said the UK economy could shrink eight percent 84 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: in the case of a heart breaks it. And so 85 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: there are numerous other things markets are concerned about that 86 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: need be resolved. And before this feedback loop starts to 87 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: hit the economy and markets again, do you think the 88 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: fet shured pools here? Tony, there is a very strong 89 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: case for the Fed pausing at the March meeting when 90 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: it's when the next rate hip potentially could occur. As 91 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: many have postulated. Uh, financial conditions do matter. The transmission 92 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: of Monterrey policy occurs through five channels at stock prices, 93 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: bond deals, credit spreads, the dollar and bank lending stands. 94 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: To send all these combined today suggests the US economy 95 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: will be weaker this year than otherwise. Let's come back, 96 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: Tony Consenzi with us without questioning our conversation with the dam. 97 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 1: I'm gonna look to the terminal and tell you, Tony 98 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: Consenzi has lifted the market here in the last ten minutes. 99 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: What's great about free of amish with Pantheon in England? 100 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: She has lived China, She's not only been there, but 101 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: attempts at Mandarin? Can you order a pizza in Mandarin? Free? 102 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: Are you to the point where your Mandarin is so 103 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: good you can order a pizza to go? I'm I'm 104 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: no fan of Chinese pizza, but um, yeah I can. Okay, Well, 105 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: we got tom Honestly, you go to Shanghaio, Beijing and 106 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: order pizza. Yeah, sure, that's what I would do anyways 107 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: for you for a good morning? Are we what is 108 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: the thing you're searching in in in China GDP? After 109 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: the comments of President she over the last three or 110 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,799 Speaker 1: four days, he's made some speeches, I think they're below 111 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: the radar, But what is the data thing that you're 112 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: trying to observe to gauge where China is? Well? I 113 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 1: guess the PMS that we had out this morning we're 114 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: pretty unpleasant. I think the consensus was always a little 115 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: bit high on that, especially we have we had the 116 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: official out already, but um, in terms of the report 117 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: itself and the kind of breakdowns that we had there, 118 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: it was telling us that the employment situation is still 119 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: quite um, quite shaky. We've still got producer price inflation 120 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: slowing um, and that that feeds through obviously to the 121 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: massive industrial sector, and it's a massive the tarrent on 122 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: on future production um. The good news, I think we're 123 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 1: all very focused at this stage on on the on 124 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: the bad news, and certainly I'm not going to jumping 125 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: on any kind of good news bandwagon, but I think 126 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: it is relevant at this stage to point out a 127 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: few um kind of good news elements from from the 128 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,799 Speaker 1: data that we're seeing at the moment. I think, first 129 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: of all, that the p M I is probably going 130 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: to trough above where we saw in ten, so that 131 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: was the last kind was the last kind of real 132 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: kind of significant downtourn that we had in China. I 133 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: think we'll probably trough above that this time. The bad 134 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: news is that we still have some further deterioration to 135 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: go before before we get there. The leading indicators have 136 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: kind of leveled off. We're starting to see the kind 137 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: of the the most advanced leading indicators are pointing towards 138 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: a pick up um in the second half of the year, 139 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: but we still have some some further deterioration to go 140 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: before then. In in the p MS and the GDP data. 141 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: Although the headlines might not actually show that. So we've 142 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: got we've got some good news out that we've certainly 143 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: got stimulus in the pipeline, not really coming through yet 144 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: the UM the the overall level, we've put our kind 145 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: of infrastructure. We've got our season ping and the work 146 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 1: conference that we had at the end of last year 147 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: which sets out the the policy direction for for this year. UM. 148 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: We had an important revelation there that there will be 149 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: increase in the in the quota for local government bond 150 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: issuance and that's where we get our infrastructure growth going 151 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: from again. UM. And I think actually there is probably 152 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: still room for a bit of a rate cut which 153 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: would probably enhance the efficacy of the of the measures 154 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: that they made, the targeted lending facility measures that they 155 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: introduced at the end of last year. UM. So there's 156 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 1: stimulus there, the stimulus potentially more coming through. And I 157 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: think probably on the trade front as well, we can 158 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: we can be a little bit positive and that in 159 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: that sense as well. Let's start with the policy tools 160 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 1: they've got available to them, and then we can talk 161 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: about the trade negotiations. You mentioned the slowdown in fourteen 162 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,959 Speaker 1: fifteen that bled into sixteen as well, that slowdown was 163 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: accompanied with some real policy shocks, and one of them 164 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: was around the currency free Do you see the stage 165 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: there for something similar again or is it very different 166 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: this time? I think um, I think there's enough time 167 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: for the PBOC to get a little bit scared in 168 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 1: the first half UM that that things are not turning around. 169 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 1: I think, as they said, the stimulus is actually in 170 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: the pipeline, but that the lag seems to be UM 171 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: a little bit longer this time around them previously, and 172 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: that leaves the p BOC and policymakers in the position 173 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 1: of having to kind of sit on their hands and 174 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: wait until the stimulus comes through. And I'm not sure 175 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: that they'll be willing to do that. So I think 176 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: we will probably see a rate cut or something that 177 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: is effectively like a rate cut. It might not be 178 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: an actual publicized rate cut, but there will be something 179 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: UM that will that will help to loosen monetary conditions 180 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 1: further UM and that that obviously exerts a downward pressure 181 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: and the women B But we are in a change 182 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: situation here with with regards to the FED. UM, it's 183 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: looking it's not looking likely anymore that they'll they'll hike 184 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: in in March, and that gives the PBC a little 185 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: bit more room there. Um. And also, as I said, 186 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: when we get to talk about the trade deal, that 187 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: will release a little bit of pressure of depreciation, pressure 188 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:13,719 Speaker 1: from the from the room and b So it gives 189 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: them a little bit more room there. But but I 190 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 1: think there's there's definitely the potential for the PBOC to 191 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: kind of surprise markets with it with a bit more 192 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: of a of a stimulus. So free you brought up trade, 193 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: so let's talk about it. It's clear to me that 194 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: there's an incentive for President Chesing Ping to come to 195 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: the table and try and strike a deal with the 196 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: President of United States Donald Trump through what's not clear 197 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:34,959 Speaker 1: to me as the concessions the president she is willing 198 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: to make. What are those concessions? Well, the the UM 199 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: in the policy setting meeting that we had at the 200 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: end of last year. UM, you don't get a lot 201 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: of detail in that kind of a of a redoubt, 202 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 1: but there was one sentence which said that they were 203 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: going to prioritize the the agreement, reaching the agreement UM 204 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: and implementing the the agreement that was made at the 205 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: G twenty meeting in November. So that's a good sign 206 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: to start with, at least rhetorically, UM. But they they've 207 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: also made moves in the direction of cutting pariffs. They've 208 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: restarted or they've kind of signaled that they're about to 209 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: restart UM imports from from the U S which they 210 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: actually have pulled back on very sharply in the second 211 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: half UM. And also they've they've critically made made kind 212 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: of rumblings in the right direction with regard to the 213 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: forced technology transfer. I like in your research note you're 214 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: not going to affect to South Korea as well. What 215 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: are your adjacency effects of this supposed slowdown in China. Yeah, 216 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: I think we've seen it UM. We often see it 217 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: actually first in some of the Korean data because Korean 218 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: UM sitting at at the head of the of the 219 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: supply chain, and they also happened to publish very early 220 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 1: in the in the kind of the data calendar. So 221 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: definitely we've seen a slowdown in Korean export volumes. Unfortunately, 222 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of noise there because of changing 223 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: holidays and that kind of thing, but that the overall 224 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 1: trend is one of of weakness from from Korea. We're 225 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: starting to see that feed through to Japan as well. 226 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: Um so it with there's there's definitely evidence there that 227 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: these these economies are struggling as a result of China's slowdown. 228 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: Free I have a great new year and we literally 229 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: really look forward to catching up with you in Shanghai 230 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:19,839 Speaker 1: at DeMarco Pizza one f Golden Bridge Garden. I didn't ask, 231 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: but it's there's many there's a lot of pizza places 232 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: in Shanghai. You know that I really should do Shanghai 233 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: with you. It sounds like you have a really different 234 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: experience of it. It's a different experience to what many 235 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: other people would free of Bemish, thank you so much. 236 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: With Panthe on China. Serious news there out of China 237 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: joining US now Dana Peterson with City Growth, their North 238 00:12:55,960 --> 00:13:00,199 Speaker 1: American economist, Dana, If I look at the City group, well, 239 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 1: have you people amended or adjusted your outlook for next 240 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: year in the last two or three days, No, we haven't. 241 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 1: We still expected the set is going to be raising 242 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: rates at least a couple of times this year, potentially 243 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 1: in March, and certainly the impass in the federal government 244 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 1: is not going to be a major determining factor in 245 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: the set delaying any of the activities for this year. 246 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 1: Will tightening financial conditions be a big factor? Well, I mean, 247 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: financial conditions have tightened a little bit, but there's still 248 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: quite loose. But I'm certain that the set is going 249 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: to be watching that along with all the other economic 250 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: indicators that pays attention to when it's doing it's a 251 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: monetary policy calculus. But at the moment, the only economic 252 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: indicators that continues to surpass the economic expectations of the 253 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: economists are the labor market and the household sector. Everything 254 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: cows is deeply negative and disappointing to it. Do you 255 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: see that turning around anytime soon? Well, I mean when 256 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: I look at certainly the fourth quarter, the economy still 257 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: grew pretty robustly in the two and a half to 258 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: represent range UM. Yeah, some of the most recent economic 259 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: indicators have been a little bit weak, but you know, 260 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: the set is looking at UH inflation, the set is 261 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: looking at UM certainly labor market, and also you know 262 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: overall GDP, and still on most of those fronts we're 263 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: doing well. I mean we will. We do anticipate some 264 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: weakening of inflation, certainly because loil prices are are falling, 265 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 1: and also you have some other underlying factors, and certainly 266 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: that might cause us set to consider you hikes this 267 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: year as you perceive it as an economist. Are the market? 268 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: This has been my theme for this morning. I don't 269 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: hate to bore people, but do you see markets is 270 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: rational and normal with their new volatility or are there 271 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: discontinuities here that get your attention? Sure? I think you 272 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: know the different markets will be are reacting for different reasons. 273 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: Certainly you know the bond market is concerned about the 274 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 1: YE curve uh flattening um and what signals that gives us. 275 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: I would suggest that maybe this time is a little 276 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: bit different. We haven't had QUEI in the past uh 277 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: kind of muddling the signals from the yolker. But certainly 278 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: equity market has been very weak UM. I think some 279 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: of that just a little bit of a steam coming out, 280 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: but also concerns about the global economy as well as 281 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 1: the trade to see. So then what do you see 282 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: within your North American purview of YCLS C plus I 283 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: plus G plus net X. I mean, is this all 284 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: about the trade war or their investment and consumption dynamics 285 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: that are leading to these instabilities? So I think consumption 286 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: is still being super charged by the tax reform, but 287 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: we are concerned about investment. Indeed, with the equity market weakening, 288 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: that's certainly the signal for our investors, and certainly with 289 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: respect to CAPEX, you know the businesses are not going 290 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: to have another big injection from tax reform this year, 291 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: and you still have concerns about trade. I guess Dan, 292 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: with one final question than today you say you haven't 293 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: changed the city view, what is your view on FED calls? 294 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: Because what we're hearing from guest if your guests is 295 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: a January thirty meeting has very suddenly become important. Yes, absolutely, 296 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 1: I mean we we've we've always had a March hike 297 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: and they did not have a hike in in January. 298 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: But certainly January is gonna be important for how to 299 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: said US easy economy, whether they're overly rather more concerned 300 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: about weakening inflation, if they're more concerned about weakening in China, 301 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: and certainly in the trade outlook for the US. And 302 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: so I definitely think that's gonna be a very important 303 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: meeting that we should be looking at. Dana, Thank you 304 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: so much. Dana Peterson was City Group. Um, we have 305 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 1: been remiss, and it's importantly been remiss with the sobering 306 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: idea Pim Fox of how wrong so many got the 307 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: transformation in Brazil when Mr Lula came on board. It 308 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: was I say this in every speech I ever give. 309 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: It was one of the great miscalls I made. I 310 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: was incredibly wrong about the Brazilian economy, their resiliency under 311 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: political change. Him. Here we are again with more political change, 312 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: and we are all right, bringing Pim. I'll let you 313 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: bring all right. Well, this all has to do, of course, 314 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 1: with the new government of Mr Bullsonaro. President Bulsonaro taking 315 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: office in the inauguration, and he's set to announce a 316 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: variety of economic measures the design cut red tape and 317 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: also fight retirement benefit fraud, while leaving pension reform for 318 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 1: later on. Here to tell us about what's going on 319 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: in the country, Oscar Decotelli, the chief executive of d 320 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 1: x A Investment. Oscar Decotel tell us a little bit 321 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: about the President of Bulsonaro and what you believe his 322 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 1: agenda includes. Hi, Pim, Hi Tom, thank you very much 323 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: for taking the time to talk to me. I think 324 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: we're starting off a new year, a new administration that 325 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 1: both on our government brings definitely a mentality of trying 326 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: to reduce the size of the government with twenty two 327 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: ministries only, with a mentality also of trying to reduce 328 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: the whole corruption around the government what we've seen in 329 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: this last year's but also trying to bring a new 330 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 1: agenda of bringing growth back to the country. And I think, uh, 331 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: for all of us here, we're quite hopeful that this 332 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: is going to become a reality, but there are definitely 333 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: some challenges to face in the next a hundred days. Right, 334 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: What are some of the specific measures that the government 335 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: needs to get right and get right quickly? Yeah? Sure. 336 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: I think the first thing is that about the government 337 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: spenditure are defined by the Constitution, and for that matter, 338 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: there's not a lot of room to be able to 339 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: change unless you go through a death very kind of 340 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 1: a bureauratic process of voting through the Congress and the Senate. 341 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: So what I think we're gonna be able to see 342 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: in the short term are the new propositions for the 343 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: social security reform and definitely a privatization agenda, trying to 344 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 1: reduce the government that by selling some of these more 345 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: kind of assets to the government owns. How will the 346 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 1: elites react to this president as compared to how they 347 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: reacted to Mr Lula a lifetime ago. Well, Tom, it's 348 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:22,680 Speaker 1: a great point. I think it's quite different than two 349 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 1: thousand and two, and we saw Lula coming on coming 350 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: on board, the elite was very negative on the country, 351 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 1: thinking that it would be kind of a big problem 352 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 1: for the country, and at the end of the day, 353 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: Lula became really a president that helped out, especially around 354 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: those years, for the country to grow. I think this 355 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: time around is a little bit different. Now we're seeing 356 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: the elite very positive, with a more of a right 357 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: wing mentality government, and definitely the fact that he's bringing 358 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 1: on board as ministers very technical guys that have very 359 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 1: strong private sector success. I think it's been probably the 360 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: government that people have been giving a lot more hope 361 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 1: that we've seen in this last decades. Now. He just 362 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 1: raised a minimum wage, correct correct? Yeah, So it was 363 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: already expected to see that the former president Tamar was 364 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: going to release that, but it was releasing middle of 365 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: the afternoon, not not big news. This already kind of expected. 366 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: Will this help the domestic economy at all? Or are 367 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: people more concerned about corruption and crime. Uh, definitely, this 368 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: was an election about corruption and crime. Uh, we didn't 369 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: see I always say that Bosonado came as a representative 370 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: of a cleaner government and not necessarily with a lot 371 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 1: of the his propositions were Now seeing the propositions coming 372 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 1: on board, uh and uh, so far they seemed positive. 373 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 1: But I think this was much more of an election 374 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: of discussing. I'm not wanting the old corruption scheme, of 375 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 1: of the old politics go ahead on. Well, what's the 376 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: opportunity here? I mean for global investors, we look at reality, 377 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: have I think a highly simplistic view. What is the 378 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 1: domestic opportunity for international investors within this new Brazil? I 379 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 1: think it's a It's a great question because Brazilian if 380 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: you add exports and imports, and we don't even come 381 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: up to the GDP. So really eighty percent of the 382 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: stories is about domestics. Right, We've seen some of the 383 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: stocks and some of the of the stories are related 384 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: to consumption going very well in these last year. I 385 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: think we're gonna be able to see more of that. 386 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: We see consumption related, we see healthcare related, education. I 387 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: think we will be able to see now that there's 388 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 1: a lot of slack in the economy with a very 389 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: high unemployment rate, We're gonna be able to see some 390 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 1: of these domestic stories coming on board, and I think 391 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: that the wise investor will be able to select if 392 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: he's going to go to public. Uh, there's some very 393 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: kind of low pe multiples that are still kind of 394 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: applying here in the market that you'll be able to 395 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,239 Speaker 1: buy them. I'm more of a private equity guy, as 396 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: you guys know. So I think there's some very kind 397 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: of uh multi year possibly that kid trends are gonna 398 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: happen here that are positi no brainers for us. Can 399 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: you give us one example? Yeah, of course. So I've 400 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: invested in the logistics company just to give an idea. 401 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: Amazon Prime is not president in Brazil. So in a 402 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: country which is the fifth largest population in the world, 403 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 1: fifth largest territory, we don't have just some time and logistics, 404 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: there's no really delivery kind of of Okay, So well 405 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: let's break some news here. Are you suggesting the Mr 406 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 1: Bezos who listens religiously, are suggesting the Mr Bezos that 407 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: he needs to come to Brazil? Yeah, definitely. I think 408 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: Mrs Basis will have a very hard time coming to 409 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:43,640 Speaker 1: Brazil without having a strategic logistics plan because differently than 410 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: the other countries, the logistics is not present here. Only 411 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: for four of the roads are paved here, so you 412 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 1: need to have a different mindset of simply kind of 413 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: building up a express company on top of a UPS 414 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: or FedEx structure. There's none here. So this means that 415 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: if Tom wants to get away from all the Amazon boxes, 416 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: he can go and find Brazilian boxes in Brazil, but 417 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 1: not Amazon boxes. Yeah, but even the Brazilian boxes are 418 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: very hard to get. You have a lot of regional players, 419 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: you don't still have a national solution. So we ended 420 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: up investing in a company that was the first one 421 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 1: to to use airlines for instance. So can we tell 422 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: us the name of the company. It's called Modern Logistics, 423 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: was founded by a former VP of Jet Blue that 424 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: founded a zool in Brazil. Gldly Man interviewed. Interesting, Well, 425 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: I can leave it there, Hosk. You can tell you 426 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate what day a window 427 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: into Brazil. And again, I you know, I'll say this 428 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: a million times. You remember where you were wrong so 429 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: much more than the little victories. Thanks for listening. To 430 00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 431 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 432 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can 433 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio