1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, so you can hear 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,880 Speaker 1: the chatters from the crowd. We have a big chant, 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: a big chance to make it a lun question, big bucks, 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: three punter, fine a man. 5 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:26,760 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network podcast Buckets Edition. 6 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: Brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. 7 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: My name's Matt Moore. I'm the senior NBA writer for 8 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 2: the Action Network. I'm joined by the one and only 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,959 Speaker 2: NBA Futures analysts Brandon Anderson. You know him well from 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: this feed where he covers the NFL all throughout the season, 11 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 2: and we're gonna give you a big rundown for the 12 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: NBA Playoffs opening weekend. We're gonna cover series, we're gonna 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: cover futures bets, we're gonna cover all of that in more. 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 2: If you want to hear more about the NBA Playoffs, 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: make sure you check out Buckets. We've got podcasts five 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: days a week, did all throughout the regular season, so 17 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 2: you know we're doing it for the playoffs. We have 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: best bets on the daily for all of the games. 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: Get you set with twenty four hours in advance so 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 2: you can evaluate those lines, not just sides and totals. 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: We do props we do angles, we do futures, we 22 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 2: do all of it. Make sure to check it out 23 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: over on the Buckets feed. It's been absolutely killer this season. 24 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: Breath of reviews. 25 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: I promise you will love Buckets. But on today's show, 26 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 2: we'll start Brandon. I'll let you take the reins on 27 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 2: this one, and I appreciate you putting this together with 28 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 2: a little format here. 29 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: We're gonna start with calvs. 30 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: Nicks. 31 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: It's one of the absolute, like most captivating series, the 32 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 2: four or five in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers favored 33 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 2: in this series, but there's been a lot of movement 34 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 2: in the market, I believe on the Knicks. It's a 35 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 2: very popular pick. I'm curious to know what your thoughts 36 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 2: are on it. 37 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: What's your best bet for calvs? 38 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 3: Nicks? I am taking the Knicks here, but I'm gonna 39 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 3: take them against the spread in the series. So give 40 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: me Knicks plus one and a half. Laying a little 41 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: bit of juice here. I think this series goes long. 42 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: I the Knicks are a flawed team. You're gonna tell 43 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 3: me exactly just how flawed they are, I'm sure, so 44 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 3: I won't make that case for them. I think both 45 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: of these teams are flawed. The Calves are a young team, 46 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 3: they haven't been here before, They've lost out of the 47 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 3: play in last year. They lack depth. They beat up 48 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 3: on a lot of bed teams this season. So I'm 49 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 3: all about the net ratings and the SRSS and all 50 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 3: the advanced metrics. But this season the Cavs had sixteen 51 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 3: wins by sixteen or more points. Only three of those 52 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 3: were against a team that finishes a top seven seed 53 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 3: in either conference, all three of which were basically like 54 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 3: resting the whole team. So that's great. It's important to 55 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 3: win those games. We always talk about in the regular season. 56 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 3: You got to win those games, and they blew teams out. 57 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 3: Outside of those games, though, they were very average. They're 58 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 3: twenty nine to four against sub of five hundred teams, 59 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 3: that is Christine. They're twenty one and twenty six against 60 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 3: teams above five hundred, nineteen and twenty two on their road. 61 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 3: If you look at just games, when was it a 62 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 3: close game, single digit game outcome either way, the top 63 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 3: three in the East Philly, Boston, Milwaukee eighty two and 64 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 3: forty in those games, So even when it was a 65 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 3: closest game, they still got the job. Done. Cleveland was 66 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 3: eighteen and twenty, just a very average sort of team. 67 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: I think this is a Spider Man Memes series, right. 68 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 3: I think these are both flowed teams. You can't just 69 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 3: out rebound and out effort and out bench in the playoffs. 70 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 3: You're gonna tell me that about the Knicks, it's true. 71 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 3: I just think it's true about the Cavaliers too. And 72 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 3: as much as we look at New York and say 73 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 3: it's it's TIBs, it's TIBs, we know how this goes. 74 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 3: I think the Cavs might actually be the Tibbs caricature, 75 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: the defense, the effort, the maxed out profile. I think 76 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 3: it's Cleveland. I'm not going all in on New York 77 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 3: to win the series. I do think it goes long. 78 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 3: Give me the Knicks plus one and a half. 79 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 2: Very rare, honestly, because your record is very good on 80 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: futures and it's very rare. Like usually I'm on this pot, 81 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 2: I'm pretty like, well like Ia, see why you get there. 82 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: I don't agree you're way off here. 83 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 2: How are you on the Knicks here? How are you 84 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 2: on the new starting off? Like, let's do like basically 85 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 2: straight up numbers. When the Knicks. I'm sorry when Tom 86 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: Tipoda's teams have been a dog in the playoffs six 87 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 2: and twenty two straight up six and twenty two. You're 88 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 2: also not giving the Cavs enough credit here, So pull 89 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 2: these numbers up. While you were talking this season, when 90 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 2: the Cavaliers are favored versus teams over five hundred, you 91 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 2: talked about like, well, they just beat up on the 92 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 2: bad teams. Twenty three and nine straight up versus teams 93 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 2: that are over five hundred when they are favored that 94 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 2: since two thousand, that's in the last two seasons. Also, 95 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: when we look at these kind of numbers and how 96 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: they've they've gone, because quite honestly, there hasn't been a 97 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 2: lot of those in the last couple of years with 98 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 2: the Caves, has been like a recent development for them. 99 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 2: This season, by the way, that's I'm sorry. The sixteen 100 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: and six this season, that was since twenty twenty twenty one. 101 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 2: This season, sixteen and six, seventy three percent straight up 102 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 2: versus teams over five hundred, thirteen and nine against the spread. 103 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 2: They don't just win, they cover Brandon, They cover those 104 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 2: games too. This season when they're favored versus team teams 105 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: with a sixty and you're better five and two, four 106 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 2: and three straight up, Like the Calves are good versus everybody. 107 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 2: The SRS really favors the Cavaliers, and I understand why 108 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 2: you're like, well, they beat up on the bad teams. 109 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 2: But the problem is, like SRS factors in strength, the 110 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 2: schedule that that's factored in, then the Calves still come 111 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 2: out really well on these all these metrics. They are 112 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 2: a much better team. Second, you go back to the 113 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 2: regular season series with the Knicks one than won with 114 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 2: the bench. You mentioned that one, they're a much beat 115 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 2: deeper team that matters if there's injuries. If there's injuries, 116 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 2: I'm gonna agree with you. If Jared Allen's growing ax up, 117 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to go ahead and hedge out and 118 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 2: bet the Knicks. If Isaaca Korro gets hurt, I'm gonna 119 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 2: have to hedge out and bet the Knicks. Donovan Mitchell, 120 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 2: Darius maybe not Darius Garland. He's awesome, but they can 121 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: get by without him. Evan Mobley, same kind of deal. 122 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 2: But if the Calves are healthy, their starters dominated this 123 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: matchup dominated the Knicks starters got destroyed. Is Obi toppin 124 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 2: playing forty five minutes, because that's how they It's Obie 125 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: Top and Isaiah Hartenstein that won them the regular season series. 126 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: Are those guys playing forty five minutes if they are 127 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: the sure, I'll bet the Knicks. 128 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 2: But they're not gonna play. They're not going to play 129 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: that much. I don't trust Tibbs. Bicker Staff may not 130 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: be as good of a coach. Cavs fans have a 131 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: lot of questions. I think JB is gonna do just fine. 132 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: My best bet for this series is absolutely Cavaliers minus 133 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: one and a half. You can get that fandule at 134 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: a plus number for them to win in six or 135 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 2: fewers plus one oh four. The last time we saw 136 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: this New York Knicks team, and I know Jalen Brunson's 137 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: there now that does change things. But the last time 138 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: that we saw this New York Knicks team in the playoffs, 139 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 2: it was a sad trombone. 140 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: Wah wah wah wah. 141 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: Including Julius Randall, who shot forty two percent from three 142 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: in the regular season series versus the Calves when he 143 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 2: shot thirty three percent from from three during the regular 144 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: season outlier games. This is a like the Calves are 145 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: going to dominate this matchup. They're a much better team. 146 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: I like Calves in five or less. I'll lay them 147 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 2: minus one and a half plus one oh four. 148 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: Response. 149 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean where we're head to head on it. 150 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 3: I don't disagree with a lot of that. Your numbers 151 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 3: are very good there. The Calves are a very good team. 152 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 3: I don't think the last Knicks team is super relevant here. 153 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 3: That was a totally different profile team. I know it 154 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 3: seems very similar, but you look at the ratings. Offensively, 155 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: the Knicks are a top three offense in the NBA. 156 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 3: I don't know how. I don't understand it, but the 157 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 3: numbers are the numbers. They are what they are. Last 158 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: time the Knicks we're here, it's because the defense was 159 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 3: super elite but suspicious, but the offense was not good. 160 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 3: That's the tib profile. That's how these teams do. This 161 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: is a different version of that team. Since December fourth, 162 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 3: when the Knicks finally got rid of fourty in rows 163 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 3: and all the guys in stettle on the right rotation, 164 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 3: they're thirty seven to twenty, top ten on defense, top 165 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: three on offense, only four double digit losses. I don't 166 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: know if the Knicks will win the series. I don't. 167 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 3: Maybe they won't, maybe the Calves win, maybe they'll win 168 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 3: still somewhat comfortably. Only four double digit losses means I 169 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 3: think we're just gonna get a lot of close games, 170 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 3: a lot of tight games. To me, I'm betting on variants. 171 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 3: I'm betting on close games, unreliable teams, variants. And here's 172 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 3: the one thing I'm betting on. But it might be 173 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 3: the flaw on the ointment for me. Nixt plus one 174 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 3: and a half says we can't get to Game six 175 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: and the Calves come to Madison Square Garden and end 176 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 3: the season for New York. Well, Donovan Mitchell would sure 177 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 3: love to do that for the team that did not 178 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 3: trade for him. That will be terrifying if we get there. 179 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 3: But that is part of my cap. That's why I'm 180 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:28,679 Speaker 3: on the next I think it's gonna be my most 181 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 3: my favorite series to watch though. 182 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: Nick by the way, not great at home this season, 183 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 2: either against the spread or straight up. Not a lot 184 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 2: of home court advantage there for them. Move on to 185 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 2: grizz Lakers. This money, the money has come in on 186 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 2: Memphis in this series. This is much closer on Tuesday 187 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 2: Night when the Lakers won the playing game versus the 188 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: Wolves to lock it. Grizzlies now minus one thirty six 189 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 2: on the series line plus one sixteen for the Lakers 190 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 2: to win straight up. The series spread in this one 191 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 2: Grizzlies minus one and a half is plus one seventy two, 192 00:08:57,640 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 2: Lakers plus one and a half is minus two fifteen, 193 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 2: tells you a lot about where this market is at. Brandon, 194 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: what's your best bet for grizz Lakers? 195 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 3: This is the one series of everything we got them. 196 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 3: Just taking a team taken aside, just give me the 197 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 3: Lakers Lakers plus one sixteen, give me a Los Angeles. 198 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 3: You're gonna hear this a lot here. I don't think 199 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 3: that we can put as much stock anymore to the 200 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 3: season long profiles of these teams. Regular season is long. 201 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 3: We are playing long ragular seasons, and teams are changing 202 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: up a lot the resting guys. And in the Lakers case, 203 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: they got a complete makeover in the middle of the year. 204 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 3: They brought in Jared Vanderbilt, they brought in Dangel Russell, 205 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 3: Malik Beasley. They totally changed the roster by the way, 206 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 3: addition by subtraction on Russell Westbrook. In a few guys. 207 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 3: Since they brought those guys February eleventh, forward LA plus 208 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 3: four and a half, not rating sixth best in the NBA, 209 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 3: their second in defensive rating, their first and defensive effective 210 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 3: field goal percentage. The effectively are the Grizzlies. If you 211 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: take the Grizzlies the entire season of profile, that is 212 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 3: almost exactly what the Lakers have been since February eleventh. 213 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 3: The difference is that the Lakers have a man named 214 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 3: Lebron James and a second one named Anthony Davis. So 215 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 3: I think the Lakers are peaking right now. The Grizzlies 216 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 3: are going the other direction. The Grizzlies have no Steven Adams. 217 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 3: That's bad. They have no Brandon Clark. That's worse when 218 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 3: you're missing both of them. They since March third, when 219 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 3: those guys have both been out, dropped from a top 220 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 3: five offensive rebounding team to the bottom of five offensive 221 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 3: rebounding team. They dropped from second in defensive EFG to 222 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 3: sixteenth league average. So I think these are teams moving 223 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 3: opposite directions. The Lakers did not look the part the 224 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: other night, but they are peaking as a team compared 225 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 3: to what they've been. They've been top ten rebounding since 226 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 3: the trade. They're going to get to the line all 227 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 3: series long. I think this is the absolute right matchup 228 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 3: for LA and not the one the Grizzlies wanted. Give 229 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 3: me the Lakers. I'm with you. 230 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: I like the Lakers in the series plus one sixteen. 231 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 2: The Brandon Clark thing cannot be overstated. It just cannot 232 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 2: be built enough. The best lineup for the Grizzlies from 233 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 2: a playoff perspective is to go to Brandon Clark, switch 234 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 2: all small ball. It provides a good spacing, It allows 235 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: them to still maintain a domination on the glass. We 236 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: saw that last year versus the Wolves. The Grizzlies can 237 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: beat you. They can make up for some other half 238 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 2: court deficiencies with just hustle. Can't do that without Brandon. 239 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 3: Now, Luke Canard's changed. 240 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: The profile of bit for the Grizzlies, which is one 241 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 2: of the reasons why, like, I'm softening a little bit 242 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 2: on this, but I still like the Lakers enough. The 243 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 2: Grizzlies half court offense jumped considerably after they got Lukenard. 244 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 2: They went to top ten. Luke Canard three's is going 245 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 2: to be a huge factor in this series. Can like 246 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 2: Luke Canard consistently booie that offense. If Taylor Jenkins approaches 247 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 2: this as it depends on what the identity of Memphis is. 248 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: Okay, if Memphis goes in. 249 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 2: There and says, look, guys, we lost Brandon Clark, we 250 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: lost Steven Adams, Jaren's probably going to be in foul trouble, 251 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: Like we're gonna have to beat this team with offense. 252 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:03,239 Speaker 2: They can win because you can just outperform the Lakers 253 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: from three point range. The Grizzlies are really inconsistent in 254 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 2: this factor, Like they just are very inconsistent. 255 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: It was funny I mentioned on Twitter. 256 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: I was like, the two most important for the series 257 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 2: on the Memphis side, or desmen Bane and Luke Canard, 258 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 2: and everybody's like, it's job thanks. 259 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: I'm like, no, John's gonna do what Jaw does. Like 260 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 1: Joah's gonna have some. 261 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: Games where he's amazing and awesome and he puts up 262 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 2: like thirty five and eight assists, and he's gonna have 263 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 2: some games where he really struggles and he can't finish 264 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 2: at the rim because he doesn't have a reliable pull 265 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 2: up jumper, and it's gonna be pretty tough. For him, 266 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: like it's gonna be all. There will be good games 267 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: and bad games from the job, but you can count 268 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 2: on Jaws like production to a certain floor. Baite and 269 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 2: Canard are just gonna have to hit threes. I'll be 270 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: on the lookout for I will say this, I like 271 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 2: the Lakers plus one sixteen because again the plus number. 272 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 2: If the Grizzlies had popped as a plus number, I 273 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: would have bet Memphis. I do think that the series 274 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 2: goes long. I really like the series over number of games. 275 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 2: That to me is like a really good bet too, 276 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 2: is to take the over at five and a half 277 00:12:58,600 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 2: or six and a half, or if you want to 278 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 2: go the other way, just bet both sides for this 279 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 2: to go in seven. It's the same number, but like 280 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 2: that to me is like the best angle possible. Because 281 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 2: the way you feel about the Knicks cap series going long. 282 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 2: I don't think that this series, it's neither team has 283 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 2: enough adjustments for them to get the edge and really 284 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: twist the knife. On the other this is gonna be 285 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: a battle game by game, It's gonna be more about 286 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 2: performance than it is about adjustments. I think as a 287 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 2: series goes on. 288 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting. I think if I try to make 289 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 3: the case in my head for the Grizzlies, I actually 290 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 3: feel like it's a shorter series if it's Memphis, Like 291 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 3: they're just too fast, too athletic, too deep, and they 292 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 3: just kind of run the Lakers off and Lebron is 293 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 3: not healthy and Anthony Davis picks up a hangnail and 294 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 3: we just kind of end things quickly. That's how it 295 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 3: goes in my head. But I also don't think that's happening. 296 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 3: I'm on the Lakers. The one thing I will say, 297 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,719 Speaker 3: I'm not fully on the Lakers just yet, because I 298 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 3: like the Lakers. I like the Grizzlies a lot. In 299 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 3: Game one, We've talked about that on buckets. Lebron is 300 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 3: three and fourteen straight up in a road game ones 301 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 3: in the playoffs for his career. So I like the 302 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,479 Speaker 3: Lakers here. But let's do the math. If the Grizzlies 303 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 3: go up Game one and are up one to oh, 304 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 3: we're gonna get a better number on the Lakers later. 305 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 3: So I will buy the price now, but I probably 306 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 3: will do like a half unit and then look to 307 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: add more at what should be a better number. If 308 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 3: that's true, I just think Lebron can of solve some 309 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 3: of the gimmicks of this team. One more number for 310 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 3: you here. Some net ratings Lebron and Anthony Davis this 311 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 3: season when they're on the court together, plus five and 312 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 3: a half from pivot analysis. When you add in either 313 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 3: Austin Reeves or Jared Vanderbilt, and I know you're thinking, 314 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: who cares, it's just Lebron, It's just Davis. Those are 315 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 3: the stars. Reeves and Vanderbilt are the guys that unlock 316 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 3: this team. They're the glue, guys that do all the 317 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 3: other stuff. Add either one of them and we go Lebron, 318 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 3: Davis and one of them plus twenty net rating ad 319 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 3: them both plus twenty five point eight. So every one 320 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 3: hundred possessions we're up twenty six points. Every four possessions, 321 00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 3: the Lakers with those four guys are gaining a point 322 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 3: on you every four times up and down the court. 323 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 3: It's not a huge number, but I think the Lakers 324 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 3: have found some things and actually have a real chance here. 325 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to Kings Warriors, the three 326 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: to six in the Western Conference. 327 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: The Warriors a favorite of favorite, how. 328 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 2: Insulting to the beam as the Golden State Warriors or 329 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 2: favorites in the series versus the three seats Sacramento Kings 330 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 2: Warriors obviously one of the worst teams that we've ever 331 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 2: had in the playoffs on the road. That's We've never 332 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 2: really had a team at least since I've been covering 333 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 2: the league that's been this bad on the road in 334 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 2: the playoffs. Warriors minus two eighty on the series line, 335 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 2: Kings plus two thirty series spread Warriors minus one and 336 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 2: a half is minus one fifty. So win six or fewer, 337 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 2: Kings plus one and a half at plus one twenty two, 338 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 2: what's your best bet for Kings Warriors. 339 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna get a little creative with this one. 340 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 3: I'm gonna stay away from all of those. I'm gonna 341 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 3: do a what's the series look like after three? Give 342 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 3: me Warriors to have a two to one series lead. 343 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 3: We're at plus one twenty on that one. So I 344 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: like the Warriors early in the series. That has been 345 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 3: a very good position to be on for this entire 346 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 3: run of titles, Dynasty or whatever we want to call it. 347 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 3: The Warriors early in the series. You and I have 348 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 3: talked about this a lot. Defenses don't know what to do. 349 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 3: It just takes a while to catch up and figure 350 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 3: this out. And I know they're in the division. They've 351 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 3: played plenty of times. Mike Brown knows what's coming with 352 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 3: Golden State. But it's one thing to know, it's another 353 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 3: thing to actually have to play against it. The warring motion, 354 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 3: the cuts, the back cuts, the steph moving and suddenly 355 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 3: the show he's still going and the shots, just all 356 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 3: of it. There's nothing like you know when you're watching, 357 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 3: you know that the Warriors are different than everything else, 358 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 3: and it just takes some time. Game ones, starting that 359 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 3: title year, Warriors are twenty one and three straight up 360 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 3: in game ones. So for all the hype and all 361 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 3: the light the beam and all the King's stuff, I 362 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: think that the Warriors are going to go in and 363 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 3: steal one of these games in Sacramento. I don't know. 364 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 3: Is it stealing when you're the favorite? Maybe just taking it? 365 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 3: I don't know. So I like the Warriors early. Warriors 366 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 3: are going to win the series with twos. If they win, 367 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: it's going to because of the twos. The King's defense 368 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 3: allows the fourth most two pointers in the league at 369 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 3: a bad percentage for them. The Warriors lead the league 370 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 3: in assess the Kings give up the third most assess 371 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 3: I think all that movement, all that motion. We're going 372 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 3: to focus on all the threes both sides, lots of 373 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 3: threes and all the shot variants. But the Warriors are 374 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 3: going to get a lot of easy stuff. Twos are 375 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 3: easy points if you get cuts and layups at their rim. 376 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 3: In the Kings games this season four times against the Warriors, 377 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 3: Golden State made fifty nine percent of their twos. It 378 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 3: is one point one to nine point per possession. That's 379 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 3: a layup line, and that is going to go very 380 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 3: well for the Warriors. I like the two to one 381 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 3: series lead. I think they get up early. Have a 382 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 3: weird feeling overall about the series, So I'm not going 383 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 3: to play the whole series odds. I'm just going to 384 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 3: take the plus one twenty and at the early series 385 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 3: lead and then maybe jumping again from there. I'm more 386 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 3: bold on. 387 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 1: This than you are. 388 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 3: I'm a little bit. 389 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: I'm more confident. 390 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 2: I like I went into the series expecting to want 391 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 2: to play Kings. I was like the market's under valve, 392 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 2: and the market is undervaluaing Sacramento like the Kings are 393 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: too big of dogs on the series' baseline to win 394 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 2: the series when I. 395 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 3: Need the work on it. 396 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 2: I think there's value on the Warriors to win this 397 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 2: series convincingly. I don't think that there's value on the 398 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 2: Warriors to win the series at the number that they're at. 399 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 2: I think there's value on the Warriors to win the 400 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 2: series convincingly. So that's one of the bet I'm taking 401 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 2: the MIS one and a half at the MIAs one fifty. 402 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 2: I'm playing an alternate minus two and a half on 403 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 2: the alternate spread score, that number is actually plus one 404 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: ninety eight. So you see like how the market is 405 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 2: shaping this, which is we think the Warriors win. 406 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 1: We think they went. 407 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 2: We strongly feel that they win in six. Like that's 408 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 2: what the market at FanDuel is saying is we feel 409 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 2: very confident in Golden State win and we feel very 410 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 2: confident in them winning in less than seven games. It's 411 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 2: not going to go seven. We like them to win 412 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 2: in six. But when you go any further from that, 413 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 2: that's when they're like, we don't think that. That's the 414 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 2: books are very strongly telling you that they don't believe 415 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: that the Kings. 416 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 1: They think that the Warriors will let them win at 417 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: least two games, right, that's what they're saying. I don't 418 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: think so. 419 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 2: Season series, Steph dominated this matchup plus fifteen in a 420 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,479 Speaker 2: net rating demnas a bonus was a minus seventeen when 421 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 2: he was on the floor. The splits for when Steph 422 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 2: and Delmoss were on the floor together, you could probably 423 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: expect they're very very very very very bad. You have 424 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 2: a player like that. And this is actually a shift 425 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 2: from who Golden State was back in like fifteen sixteen. 426 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: Fifteen sixteen, Steph wouldn't necessarily pick on those matchups. 427 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 1: He didn't do that as much. 428 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 2: They just ran their stuff because the Warriors were strengthened 429 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: numbers and they really believed in the system. This team 430 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 2: in particular, is a little bit more Yeah, no, we'll 431 00:19:59,320 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 2: pick on you. 432 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 1: If they did that last year where they were just. 433 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: Like, we're gonna run Steph, pick and roll at you 434 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: over and over and over again, they will do that 435 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 2: versus the Kings, and the Kings will lose those minutes 436 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 2: and the Warriors will play heavier minutes. The Warriors starters 437 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 2: are gonna have to play heavier minutes. It's one of 438 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 2: the reasons why I'll tell you I'm off of Warriors 439 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,719 Speaker 2: futures is. I think that they're gonna be exhausted by 440 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 2: the time that this run is over. But I do 441 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 2: think they're gonna take care of business here. I don't 442 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: see anyway. Not I don't see anyway. I think it's 443 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 2: very likely the Golden State shows up. The defense is 444 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 2: way better we look. We'll talk about this on the 445 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 2: buckets pod. The starting lineup. Their road defensive numbers are 446 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 2: really good. A lot of the numbers are just based 447 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 2: off of the bench. They won't play as much. The 448 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 2: starters will play more. The Warriors will win. The Warriors 449 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 2: will win in five, I think. So I'm gonna take 450 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 2: the minus two and a half. I'll think the Mius 451 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 2: one and a half is a head just in case 452 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: I'm wrong. But I do believe that the Warriors are 453 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 2: gonna win the series in definitely less than seven. I'm 454 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 2: backing what the number like. I'm basically betting into what 455 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,239 Speaker 2: the market is telling us that they believe. I'll lay 456 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 2: the Mius one fifty, but I'll also take the minus 457 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 2: two and a half at plus one ninety eight. 458 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: Thoughts. 459 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a lot of warning suns here 460 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 3: for the Kings. We talked on buckets about the starters 461 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 3: versus the bench. The Kings are a team that put 462 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 3: up big bench numbers during the year, but we get 463 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 3: shorter rotations in the playoffs. Kings were maybe the healthiest 464 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 3: team among all these playoff teams. So that's a maxed 465 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 3: out profile that tells us maybe, like, well, but they're 466 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 3: the three seed. The Kings are the three seed, how 467 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 3: are they getting more credit? Well, the three seed is 468 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 3: pretty weak this year. That the sixers are the three seeds. 469 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 3: The one thing the Kings are the sixers. No nobody 470 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 3: thinks that, So don't pretend like three seed means a thing. 471 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: This is a week three seed in a week conference 472 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 3: and probably got boosted by the healthy team and the 473 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 3: record against sub five hundred teams. Again, and think the 474 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 3: Kings to stay around in the series. The Warriors offense 475 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 3: when they actually get a shot up, is even better 476 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 3: than the Kings. And the Kings, by the way, are 477 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 3: the number one offense, so that's pretty good better than 478 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 3: number one. The Kings have to win on rebounding, win 479 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 3: on turnovers. That's the way that they stay in the US. 480 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 3: I think they can. I think they can get those 481 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 3: edges We've seen the Warriors be very prone to making 482 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 3: those mistakes, so I see the red flags. I just 483 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 3: I'm trusting my gut on this one. That feels something 484 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 3: a little off here. I just feel like we're gonna 485 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 3: get some some wild wonky games, and I think it's 486 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 3: a longer series because of that. But I see your case. 487 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 3: I think it's definitely possible that we just get a 488 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 3: quick exit here for the Kings. 489 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: Let's go to Suns Clippers. What's your best bet for 490 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: Suns Clippers? 491 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 3: So I'll keep this very easy. My best bet for 492 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: Suns Clippers is don't don't bet. Don't bet the Suns, 493 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 3: don't bet the Clippers, don't bet game one, don't buy 494 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 3: the series, don't bet that the futures, and look, don't 495 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 3: bet is not a cop out. Don't bet sometimes is 496 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 3: the right bet. I think we know way less about 497 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 3: either one of these teams. Then we will admit to ourselves. 498 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 3: Kevin Durant has played six point eight percent of Phoenix's 499 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 3: minutes for the season. Kevin Durant is eighteenth on the 500 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 3: Suns in minutes for the season. We don't know anything 501 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 3: about the Suns. Somehow, Kawhi Leonard is in a series 502 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 3: where we feel like we know more about his team 503 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 3: than the other team. Mister hypothetical, I don't think we know. 504 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 3: Does Kawhi Leonard finals MVP? Is that still there? I 505 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,199 Speaker 3: don't know. Is Kevin Durant god mode still there? Is 506 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 3: he rested and ready to go? I don't know. Is 507 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 3: PG gonna play? I don't know. Can the Suns defend 508 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 3: against real teams? I don't know. We haven't seen any 509 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 3: of that stuff yet. Sometimes the right bet can be 510 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 3: to watch. It's a long playoffs, man, we got two months. 511 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 3: One of these teams, whoever comes up is gonna be 512 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 3: very dangerous. We're gonna look at title odds and Futuriz 513 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 3: odds and everything. I have a lot to learn. I 514 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 3: can't wait to watch we finally get Durant versus Kawhi, 515 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 3: which never happens. I want to watch. I'm gonna learn. 516 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna bet it, Howard. 517 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 2: My last BET's over five and a half games played 518 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 2: fin then in the market is actually minus one ten, 519 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 2: so you can get even money for this to go 520 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 2: six games either way. I lean Clippers plus two and 521 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 2: a half, which is you have to lay some juice 522 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 2: on it that number at FanDuel Sportsbook, plus two and 523 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 2: a half is minus one thirty two. 524 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 1: I'd rather just play the one ten. 525 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 2: Because I don't think the Clippers plus two and a 526 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 2: half factors in, Like, well, what if the Clippers win 527 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 2: in four or five? And to me, I'm like, no, 528 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 2: that's that's not happening. Clippers are not going, gentlemen sweep 529 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 2: the Phoenix Suns, who are undefeated with Kevin Durant. I 530 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 2: don't believe that this market accurately is describing the Clippers. 531 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: This is a good matchup for them. If they had 532 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: Paul George. 533 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 2: I would be betting the Clippers straight up if they 534 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 2: had If Paul George, if Paul George gets announced in 535 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 2: and if they make a surprise surprise Paul George is 536 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 2: back for Game four. 537 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: If it's not three O sons, I will be on. 538 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 2: I'll be betting the Los Angeles Clippers to win the series. 539 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 2: The Clippers have a lot more options. This is the 540 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 2: base of it. You got booked, and you got CP three, 541 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 2: and you got Durant, and usually the better team wins 542 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 2: the series. So I think the Suns win the series 543 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 2: because they have those three and they're gonna win the series. 544 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,120 Speaker 2: Because Paul George is out, all of the matchup stuff 545 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 2: goes to the Clippers. The Clippers can switch, the Suns can't. 546 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 2: They don't have that versatility anymore. They got rid of 547 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 2: their ability to go small. 548 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 1: They can't do that. 549 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 2: It's gonna be Bismack Biambo and DeAndre Aiden on the 550 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 2: floor all the time. If that's a problem. If Aighton 551 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: is dominating that matchup. The Clippers do have the ability 552 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 2: to go big. They have Mason Plumbley and if it's 553 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 2: a zubach I like both of those guys in the 554 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,239 Speaker 2: matchup versus Eighten, I'm not worried about Aiden. They can 555 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 2: switch on the perimeter once or four. They can navigate 556 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: all of this. They have long defenders to Bother guys 557 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 2: like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant are gonna 558 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 2: get their but it's gonna come down to those other guys. 559 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 2: Josha Koge, Tory, Craig Landry Shammitt, Damian Lee who shot 560 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 2: the lights out this year. By the way, I'll be 561 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 2: looking for Damiane three point props. 562 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: All those guys are. 563 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 2: Gonna have to be the ones that carry them the 564 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 2: Clippers are gonna shoot more threes. They've got the math 565 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 2: advantage because the Suns do almost none. They're mid range shooters. 566 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 2: They're elite mid range shooters, but they're mid rang shooters. 567 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 2: So like matchup wise, I have to take the number 568 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 2: of What I learned last year with Wolves Grizzlies was 569 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 2: if you have a huge matchup advantage that you see 570 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 2: on paper, but you know the other team is better, 571 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 2: don't bet that's the underdog to win. 572 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: Just bet them to hang. 573 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 2: So plus two and a half I think has good 574 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 2: value at FanDuel sportsbook, but I like even better over 575 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 2: five and a half games minus one ten save the 576 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 2: extra thirty cents may that allows for a four to 577 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 2: two Suns win. That feels about right to me. I'll 578 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 2: take over five and a half games minus one ten. 579 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 3: I like it. I'm just gonna ask one question, and 580 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 3: I don't have an answer to this, so it's okay 581 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 3: if you don't. My answer is I'm gonna wait and 582 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 3: see as a better What is your preferred outcome for 583 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 3: this series? Not obviously you want your bet to win, 584 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 3: but looking ahead to the next two months, because one 585 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 3: of these teams is gonna be a factor. We're gonna 586 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,359 Speaker 3: probably play the Nuggets next. What do you want to 587 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 3: bet on regarding one of these teams? Who do you 588 00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 3: want to come out of this so that you can 589 00:26:58,920 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 3: bet something else later. 590 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: I have a very very very big number on the 591 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: Nuggets to win the title from very very very early 592 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: in the preseason. 593 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 2: I have a very very very big number on the 594 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,920 Speaker 2: Suns that I got right after the finals. So that's 595 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 2: eide of the bracket. I'm honestly fine on. I want 596 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 2: the Suns to win because I get like, I think 597 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 2: whoever wins this, you know, whoever wins second round is 598 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 2: probably I think winning the Western Conference. There are other 599 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 2: numbers I've taken because you know me, I'm always going 600 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 2: to have a million positions. But to me, I don't 601 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 2: want to have it be if Suns go out, that's 602 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 2: a bad outcome for me because I have a big 603 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,719 Speaker 2: allotment from the last month of Suns Celtics finals matchup. 604 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 3: So that's my Okay, I'll give an answer. Actually, I 605 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 3: think that I prefer that Phoenix wins because I don't 606 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 3: believe yet in this team as a championship team. I'm 607 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 3: skeptical of the defense in particular, I'm skeptical of the 608 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 3: health holding up, but everybody believes. The market believes in Phoenix, 609 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 3: so I think that I want Phoenix to go and 610 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,480 Speaker 3: win the series. The longer they stick around, the better 611 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 3: prices I have to get on the other teams I 612 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 3: actually want to bet on, So I think that's the 613 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 3: better outcome for me. 614 00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: All Right, we're gonna hit one other series that you're 615 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 2: making a bet on. 616 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: You got sixty seconds. What's another bet you're making a 617 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: bet on? 618 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 3: The in the playoffs? My favorite series better the first round. 619 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 3: Give me the Celtics minus two and a half. You 620 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 3: gotta lay a little bit of juice, But hater, I 621 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,199 Speaker 3: just it's gonna be a quick series. The Celtics are 622 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 3: the best team in the field. I think they're the 623 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 3: deepest team. They're well rounded. They canna win an offense, 624 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 3: they win in defense. They got six or seven guys. 625 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,679 Speaker 3: They can win any night. The Hawks are gonna get 626 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 3: killed with math. They take a ton of twos. The 627 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 3: Celtics are great at two point defense, They're not efficient 628 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 3: offense or defense. Boston ranks near the top league in 629 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: those things. Atlanta is dead last in three point attempt rate. 630 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 3: Boston is top five in attempts and percentage they're gonna 631 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 3: win with threes. Three is greater than two. Boston scored 632 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 3: with a one twenty nine offensive rating in the two 633 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,040 Speaker 3: games that were meaningful between these teams this year, so 634 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 3: I think this is a walkover. I also am not 635 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 3: just gonna play the minus two and a half that 636 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 3: mean Celtics in the five or less. I'm gonna give 637 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 3: Quinn Snyder in Atlanta possibly a game, but I'm gonna 638 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 3: play the Celtics sweep too. I'll play a little bit 639 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 3: of the plus two to eighty for this sweep. If 640 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 3: we get Boston up two Oho, which I'm certainly counting 641 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 3: on with us, bet we go to Atlanta and get 642 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 3: the third game. With all the stuff Atlanta's gone through 643 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 3: this year, the Trey Young rumors already starting up, I 644 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 3: think we're a one two three kN kun in a hurry, 645 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 3: So I would take the sweep as well, but I 646 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 3: expect Boston to make quick work of the Hawks. I 647 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 3: don't know any avenue where Atlanta wins two games in 648 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 3: this series. Give me Boston minus two and a half. 649 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 1: We all have numbers for this yet. 650 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 2: Recording this on Thursday, afternoon and the playing games or 651 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 2: Friday night, whoever wins the East one eight seed playing 652 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 2: game between the Heat and the Bulls, I'll bet Bucks sweep. 653 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to lay juice on it, and I'm 654 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 2: fine on that. They can't give me. They probably won't 655 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 2: give me a deep number on it, but I'm gonna 656 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:01,560 Speaker 2: lay it because I don't think either of these teams 657 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 2: are even in the stratosphere of Milwaukee. Don't love Milwaukee 658 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 2: long term right now. I'm very much in it on 659 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 2: the Celtics right now, but I do think Milwaukee, Milwaukee, 660 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 2: I think is the team that's going to sweep. I 661 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 2: have more confidence in them than Boston. Okay, we've got 662 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 2: one conference or title picks. We're talking about futures. Now, 663 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 2: what's your best bet for a conference or title pick. 664 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 3: I'm going to take the East. I'm going to take 665 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 3: the whole East. Give me the Eastern Conference to win 666 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 3: the title to minus one to thirty. This is a 667 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 3: very anti Brandon pick. I usually love my long shots here. 668 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 3: Don't worry. I got one more for you before we 669 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 3: get out of here. But I wrote about parody on 670 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,959 Speaker 3: Action Network. I've got a couple water cools up. What 671 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 3: do we do when we look at the West and say, 672 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 3: what in the world they're all these decent, middling teams. 673 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 3: There's no elite team out here. What happens who comes 674 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 3: out of the West. I don't really know, to be honest, 675 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 3: I don't think you know. I don't think anyone knows. 676 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 3: History says that the seeding usually holds up. So usually 677 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 3: it's these teams at the top, even if they're weaker 678 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 3: top seeds, but history overwhelmingly size whoever it is. It 679 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 3: doesn't matter whoever comes out, they lose in the finals 680 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 3: to the team from the better conference. That's the whole point. 681 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 3: The best three teams in the NBA, I think are 682 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 3: all in the East right now. Celtics box clearly one 683 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 3: and two for me, Even with my Sixers hate Matt, 684 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 3: I still think they're probably the third best team. They're 685 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 3: just third best in their own conference too. Any of 686 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 3: those three teams, one of them is going to be 687 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 3: in the finals, and they will have home court advantage. 688 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,479 Speaker 3: That means Game one at home. That means that I'm 689 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 3: going to have a longer odds if I wait and 690 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 3: bet the finals. Whoever it is, I'm not getting a 691 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,720 Speaker 3: minus one thirty, then I'm gonna get something longer than 692 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 3: minus one thirty. So just give me a blind right now, 693 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 3: whoever the finals is. I'll take the Celtics, the Box 694 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 3: or the Sixers because I'm not getting a minus one 695 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 3: thirty later. They're the teams I like. The West. Teams 696 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 3: are flawed, They've got a longer, harder path ahead all 697 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 3: these first round matchups. We think these three East teams 698 00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,040 Speaker 3: might sweep or get close in the first round and 699 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,719 Speaker 3: keep it easy. I'll add later. I like Celtics, I 700 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 3: like Box. I'll do a fancy escalator approach thing like 701 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 3: you know I do. But just give me the East. 702 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 3: I think the East wins the finals. That's what history 703 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 3: says happens here. 704 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 2: I like Celtics to beat Sun's finals matchup exact outcome 705 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 2: that gets you plus fourteen hundred. That's a longer shot. Look, 706 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 2: the Sons haven't lost with Kevin Durant. They're the best 707 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 2: team in the conference. They're priced appropriately as the favorite. 708 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 2: I have questions about Denver's floor. I think Denver can 709 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 2: win that matchup with Phoenix. I think they can win. 710 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 2: I don't know if they will. Phoenix has to be favored. 711 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 2: I like Phoenix to beat whoever they're going to face 712 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 2: in a conference finals, even if it's Golden State, because 713 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 2: I think Golden States can be tired Boston. I really 714 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 2: like this lay for them. The Sixers have never been 715 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 2: able to beat them. I really think that the Celtics 716 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 2: team is is by margin better than everyone else in 717 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 2: the East. 718 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: I think there's actually this idea that being very close. 719 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 2: The more I've kind of looked at it, I really 720 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 2: do think the Celtics are a significant step ahead. The 721 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:00,760 Speaker 2: numbers bear that out, that the Celtics are just better 722 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 2: than everybody else. So I'm willing to go ahead and 723 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 2: right now I'm getting my money in free flop with 724 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 2: the best hand. I'm betting on aces here. I'm betting 725 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,440 Speaker 2: Suns Celtics. I'm betting Celtics to beat the Suns at 726 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 2: plus fourteen hundred because if I'm right and we get there, 727 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 2: the Suns are are gonna be the ones that are dogs. 728 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 1: So I get I come back on the other side. 729 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 2: Phoenix loses Game one, I'll bet back on Phoenix at 730 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 2: that point to hedge profit. 731 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: I'm a profile better. You'll find it out if you 732 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: listen to the buckets. 733 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 2: So I got a lot of options here, but right now, 734 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 2: if you're looking to bet one thing and you're looking 735 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 2: for a juicy number, that fourteen hundred is a good one. 736 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,880 Speaker 2: Before we get out of here, one finals or conference 737 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 2: MVP pick. Excited to hear this from you, I have mine, 738 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 2: Go ahead and lay it on me. What's your conference 739 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 2: or finals MVP pick? 740 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 3: All right, you want the long shot. I gotta give 741 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 3: my long shot bat here to wrap up, Matt, You'll 742 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 3: never believe this, but everything is coming up. Lakers. Give 743 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:57,600 Speaker 3: me a Lebron James plus fifteen hundred Western Conference Finals MVP. 744 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 3: This is the dream Laker draw. We have talked on 745 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,479 Speaker 3: buckets ad nauseum for weeks, for months. Who gets the 746 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 3: weaker half of the bracket in the West? Who gets 747 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 3: the dream draw? And then on top of it, the 748 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 3: Grizzlies lost Steven Adams and lost Brandon Clark. We did 749 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 3: the whole matchup thing. I love those matchup for the 750 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 3: Lakers in that series. Then you get the Kings or 751 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,759 Speaker 3: the Warriors in the second round. Look, the Warriors are 752 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,919 Speaker 3: the champs, but this is not last year's team. Let's 753 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 3: be real, and the Kings are the Kings, Kings, Lakers. 754 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,720 Speaker 3: We've seen that one a couple of times. The Suns 755 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 3: are on the other half, the Nuggets are on the 756 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 3: other half. Kawhi is on the other half of the bracket. 757 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 3: This is the perfect outcome. The Lakers could not have 758 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:41,279 Speaker 3: drawn it up any better for themselves. It's a week conference. Hey, 759 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 3: have I ever seen a week conference before where Lebron 760 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 3: comes out and makes the finals. I've seen that like 761 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 3: seven hundred times. This is what happens in the NBA. 762 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 3: Matt Lebron makes the finals. Everything's coming up Lakers. Here's 763 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 3: why I have to bet us the Lakers. Depending where 764 00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,359 Speaker 3: you look, our priced around plus seven hundred plus eight 765 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:03,279 Speaker 3: hundred two the West. Lebron's plus fifteen hundred to be 766 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 3: the MVP when that happens. I'm sorry, you're telling me 767 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 3: that we're really gonna give Anthony Davis MVP in the 768 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:15,359 Speaker 3: Western Conference finals. There's a trophy for an MVP type thing, 769 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,959 Speaker 3: and we're not gonna give it to Lebron. The team 770 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,040 Speaker 3: that just won. Get all the way out of here. 771 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:24,320 Speaker 3: Lebron is the MVP. If the Lakers win, it's double 772 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,680 Speaker 3: the odds here. If the Lakers win the conference and 773 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,120 Speaker 3: make the finals. It has to be because Lebron has 774 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 3: a better gear than we saw the other night. It 775 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,480 Speaker 3: has to be that. Gimme Lebron fifteen to one. Everything's 776 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 3: coming up, Lakers, Let's go Lebron. 777 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,800 Speaker 2: I've bet Anthony Davis Finals MVP forty two hundred. 778 00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:43,240 Speaker 1: That's on my best bet. 779 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 2: But I'll just tell you I think it's entirely possible. 780 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 2: This is the passing the Torch season. If the Lakers win, 781 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 2: it's gonna have to be. Like I'll just tell you this. 782 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,959 Speaker 2: If the Lakers win, it's because Anthony Davis finally reached 783 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 2: the potential that everyone wanted him to have and he 784 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 2: stayed healthy. Like, they're not winning if it's not and 785 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,360 Speaker 2: if Davis is there, the only way they're winning is 786 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,560 Speaker 2: if he puts up these numbers. And Davis was the 787 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 2: one getting MVP consideration when he had that stretch earlier 788 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 2: this season. Like Davis when putting up those numbers, Lebron, 789 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 2: it's an age thing. With age, you don't lose your fastball, 790 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 2: you lose your consistency. Lebron will have great games in 791 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 2: the finals that they make it, but he won't have 792 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,840 Speaker 2: as many Davis will have more. So to me, Davis 793 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 2: is the better value because as much as voters want 794 00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,239 Speaker 2: to reward him, they know that like Lebron's got him, 795 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 2: like Lebron, they don't need to reward Lebron. 796 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:24,839 Speaker 1: They this. 797 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 3: He doesn't have a Conference Finals MVP. We only have 798 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 3: that for one year. So everything you said is right, 799 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 3: Everything is absolutely right. It's all very logical. It's Lebron. 800 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,440 Speaker 3: Throw the logic out the window. Lebron gets the trophy. 801 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,240 Speaker 2: My best bet is Devin Booker Finals MVP plus nineteen 802 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:41,799 Speaker 2: hundred and wanting to bet this. 803 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,080 Speaker 1: Talked about it weeks ago. 804 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 2: Bookers is going to get overshadowed until we actually get there, 805 00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,280 Speaker 2: and it's going to be like book had thirty five 806 00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,720 Speaker 2: and eight, like his assist numbers skyrocketed in the games 807 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,960 Speaker 2: with Katie because he's able to be playmaker and engine. 808 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,880 Speaker 2: He'll stagger with the second unit. He'll play more with 809 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 2: the starters without KD. Because they're actually having KD in 810 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:06,839 Speaker 2: that second unit right now. 811 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:07,680 Speaker 1: That may change. 812 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,839 Speaker 2: Booker is more of an engine than KD is. It's 813 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,359 Speaker 2: not that Katie is not a good passer. I think 814 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,520 Speaker 2: he's really underrated in that respect, but Devin's better. Chris 815 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 2: is taking a step back, Devon's taking a step up. 816 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,799 Speaker 1: He is leveled up. 817 00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 2: Booker is on that level. I've been skeptical of Devin Booker, 818 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,200 Speaker 2: but he's turned me. He started turning around three years 819 00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 2: ago and then he was like, well he's this level. 820 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 2: I was like, well, yeah, back off, He's that level. 821 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:29,719 Speaker 1: Now. 822 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 2: If the Suns win, I think you genuinely are going 823 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 2: to see like wow, Devin Booker was the most impactful 824 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 2: guy in that series. You know, Kde averaged twenty nine, 825 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 2: but Devin had that massive Game six with forty points 826 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,960 Speaker 2: and eight assists, and his assist numbers are better and 827 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,400 Speaker 2: he shot better from the field. Devin Booker plus nineteen 828 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 2: hundred I think is great value for a long shot 829 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,680 Speaker 2: Finals MVP right now. If you want to hear more 830 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 2: about the NBA Playoffs, make sure you check out Buckets. 831 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,239 Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys listening to us. 832 00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,480 Speaker 2: Make sure check out all those things, rate, review, and 833 00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 2: subscribe the Action Network podcast and download the Action Network. 834 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 2: Yeah for continuing coverage of the NBA Playoffs. Thanks for 835 00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 2: joining us. We'll see you guys again next time. Till then, 836 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:11,800 Speaker 2: let's get buckets. 837 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:18,319 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 838 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 839 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,280 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler