Speaker 1: Check it on Man Now Down Now Thursday morning, September
Speaker 1: Tend Up Eating the Book podcast BEGA Pod full Week
Speaker 1: four in the National Football League. It's Gill Alexander. As
Speaker 1: I mentioned, thank you for joining. As always, the staples
Speaker 1: of the show are with us today from Circus Sports,
Speaker 1: the vice president of operations, and also Derek Stephen's conciliary.
Speaker 1: If you want to know by that title, it's Mike Palm.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Mike. How you doing, Man? Well, we're finally
Speaker 1: getting over this cold. It's breaking up now, so so
Speaker 1: that's good. And I'm very, very very honored to be
Speaker 1: on the panel with today's esteemed rotating guests. Esteamed Rotating Guests.
Speaker 1: We'll get to him, but of course on my left
Speaker 1: it's Todd wishing of everybody from Showtime's docuseries Action and
Speaker 1: of course a numbers game, weekly appearances on Visa and Todd.
Speaker 1: What are you in circle right now? Ten and five?
Speaker 1: I am ten and five and Circus So the end
Speaker 1: is near? What does that me that you're about to
Speaker 1: say you're about to suck royally? Yes? Probably excellent. You've
Speaker 1: also been very good on this megapod. The both of
Speaker 1: you have been very good I have sucked. I've been
Speaker 1: one in two every week and they've lost the teaser.
Speaker 1: So something's wrong with me. I gotta get off this night. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Rotating guests that Mike Palm is referring to the
Speaker 1: esteem Rotating Guests first time on the podcast. He's obviously
Speaker 1: been on the show on Visa on the Numbers Game
Speaker 1: for years now. We can actually say years plural. He
Speaker 1: hosts the Lombardi Line on Visa in the Vegas Stats
Speaker 1: and Information Network series x M channel two oh four
Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday mornings leading into football. He writes for
Speaker 1: The Athletic. He of course, has his own podcast, which
Speaker 1: ranks way higher than this one, I might add in
Speaker 1: the iTunes rankings, called the GM Shuffle. He does it
Speaker 1: with add Nan verk And and he's got a book.
Speaker 1: It's called Gridiron Genius Ladies and Gentlemen. He's worked with
Speaker 1: Bill Walsh, Bill Parcels, Bill Belichick, Al Davis, you name it.
Speaker 1: It's Michael Lombardi. What's happening, Michael? Not much here? Week four?
Speaker 1: This is always a good time of the year. I
Speaker 1: appreciate you having me on. It's good on starting to act,
Speaker 1: so I think you gave me the ultimate compliment when
Speaker 1: I said something about Pinnacle the other day. You actually
Speaker 1: were I'm pressure you with my betting Esteine there. Yes,
Speaker 1: that was my big takeaway from that all interview. I
Speaker 1: was like, wow, it has been Actually, you know what,
Speaker 1: there were two There were two points Todd actually said,
Speaker 1: because Todd came on the next day after you were on,
Speaker 1: and he's and Todd, if I might talk about our
Speaker 1: conversation about Michael, there were two points that we had
Speaker 1: in our conversation I think stood above the rest. One
Speaker 1: if you're playing the Kansas City Chiefs, like run the
Speaker 1: clock down, shorten the game, right like that was a
Speaker 1: big thing that the Ravens didn't do. And what was
Speaker 1: the other one, Todd that we seized upon. Oh the
Speaker 1: coaches thing. How you could almost do better just betting
Speaker 1: coaches in the National Football League. Forget every other little detail.
Speaker 1: Just do a power ranking of coaches and bet coaches
Speaker 1: and you might be better off than actually putting your
Speaker 1: own brain into things. I think that's true, I really do.
Speaker 1: I was talking to a coach last night. He's driving
Speaker 1: home from work, and we were talking about how these
Speaker 1: teams they don't understand that pass rush really determines how
Speaker 1: to play the quarterback. So you know, for example, De
Speaker 1: Troit it's gonna play Kansas City, and they'll copy what
Speaker 1: Belichick did against Kansas City. They'll take their two defensive
Speaker 1: ends and they'll push the pocket back and they'll try
Speaker 1: to squeeze the two tackles, especially cam Elion is not
Speaker 1: very good, try to squeeze him in and make the
Speaker 1: pocket a little uncomfortable for Mahomes and end up going
Speaker 1: to try to jam Mahomes and the receivers to kind
Speaker 1: of disrupt the timing. And so the front can really
Speaker 1: help the quarterback, and coverage help defend the quarterback as
Speaker 1: opposed to coverages. But most coaches they don't see that
Speaker 1: there's an imbalanced pass rush. You'll see three guys on
Speaker 1: one side of the center and one guy over there
Speaker 1: at the quarterback scrambles for twenty odds, and the analysis
Speaker 1: as well, you know they scrambles for twenty ars first down.
Speaker 1: Now that that should never happen. So those little details
Speaker 1: that coaches don't see, the good ones do, that's what
Speaker 1: you're betting against. Should it ever happen on fourth and
Speaker 1: five on the last drive of the game, that the
Speaker 1: quarterbacks should be allowed to run down the Red Sea
Speaker 1: as the Israelites did going away from Egypt, no one
Speaker 1: anywhere near him to score the game winning touchdowns. Should
Speaker 1: that ever happen? Ah? Well, that you know, that's really uh,
Speaker 1: that's what we call coaching mal practice. I mean, you know.
Speaker 1: And so it's one thing to play too deep men
Speaker 1: under where you lose sight of the quarterback. But if
Speaker 1: you do that, you better have somebody in the defensive
Speaker 1: front who's making that pocket very tight and keeping it
Speaker 1: in there. And no, it should never happen like that. Look,
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are you know, I marvel at
Speaker 1: the pr of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You know, Jason
Speaker 1: Lights drafted two kickers. He can't I think you can't
Speaker 1: get a kicker situation solved. And he's got a new
Speaker 1: five year contract extension. Bruce Arians has come in as
Speaker 1: this quarterback guru, and then he's let's change, let's he
Speaker 1: lets Byron left, which call all the plays, Like we
Speaker 1: hired you, Bruce, we didn't hire Byron, you know, like
Speaker 1: like you're the reason you're the highest paid coach on
Speaker 1: this that you should be calling the plays. You should
Speaker 1: be running the offense. So the Bucks to me, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I was actually having the same conversation with
Speaker 1: his head coach and we were talking about how bad
Speaker 1: the Bucks were and and he was like, look, they
Speaker 1: only give a shit about Manchester United anyway. All those
Speaker 1: all those Buccaneers receivers were very well covered, Todd. I
Speaker 1: just want to point that out, very well covered, except
Speaker 1: they forgot about the quarterback. By the way, I'm glad
Speaker 1: you cursed right there, Michael, because you are allowed to
Speaker 1: curse here. My last experience with Michael Lombardi cursing on
Speaker 1: podcasts is when you used to do the the old
Speaker 1: one with your buddy Tate Frasier. Young jim Nance by
Speaker 1: the way, everybody um and Jimmy, Yeah, Little Jimmy, I
Speaker 1: call it. Actually, we did a podcast today with Little
Speaker 1: Jimmy Atman and I hosted a Little Jimmy on. We
Speaker 1: had a segment where we talked about the great Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield and we talked about the clip that I think
Speaker 1: is the essence of of who the Washington Redskins are.
Speaker 1: It was in the Washington Post the other day and
Speaker 1: Mike Palm, you need to look at this because If
Speaker 1: you ever see any of your employees down at Circa
Speaker 1: or at at your hotel's behaving like this, you know
Speaker 1: your culture is rotten. It's Dwayne Haskins sitting on the
Speaker 1: bench looking completely in the opposite direction as Kevin O'Connell
Speaker 1: instructs case Keenum on what to do. Yeah, my beloved
Speaker 1: Washington Reskins, so bad, so bad. Might be Colt McCoy
Speaker 1: this weekend we shall see, could be Dwayne Haskins, might
Speaker 1: be called McCoy Case Keenum in a walking boot. By
Speaker 1: the way, what's Tate doing now? I think Kate's as
Speaker 1: as one of the great Mike. You might know this guy,
Speaker 1: you know, Mike Tony, Mike Mike. You know Mike tomp
Speaker 1: Do you know Mike Tony? Michael Tony. Michael Tony used
Speaker 1: to hang around when I was in Vegas. He would
Speaker 1: hang around the basketball program. He would come in Tim
Speaker 1: Gergeritz who's now at the Pistons, Mark Arkantine is at
Speaker 1: the Nuggets, and I and I was. I had an
Speaker 1: office next door of them. So Tony was helping out
Speaker 1: the football and the basketball program, helping us get comp
Speaker 1: tickets and all that stuff. And he under the greatest
Speaker 1: line of all. He said he was in between successes,
Speaker 1: and I think that's where Tate Fraser is right in
Speaker 1: between successes, in between successes. I like that. Um. Just
Speaker 1: to finish, the last time I was listening to their podcast, UM,
Speaker 1: I was playing catch with my de facto daughter, a
Speaker 1: little Gracie, who was eleven years old at the time,
Speaker 1: when we were playing catch in the room, and I
Speaker 1: was listening to uh Lombardi on the the old podcast,
Speaker 1: and then Lombardi starts cursing like a sailor and I
Speaker 1: had to sprint across the room and shut off the podcast.
Speaker 1: You are very animated. No, that's quite all right. I
Speaker 1: was probably bad. It's was probably something man at something.
Speaker 1: By the way, Gild, is it possible that on the
Speaker 1: wonder Lick test, there's not a question saying if the
Speaker 1: head boats talking to the quarterback, do you a pay
Speaker 1: attention or be look in the other direction? Seriously, it's
Speaker 1: not even Dwayne's fault though, right, yes, Gild, you had
Speaker 1: Haskins is ready to play in the NFL. I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't see him playing. I don't know what is
Speaker 1: in the playbook. He's even with it. They could start
Speaker 1: him this week. Yeah, I'm not sure that you know.
Speaker 1: I mean, Mike, Here's what I said tweeting. I was
Speaker 1: having a tweet storm the other night on Monday Night football,
Speaker 1: after my favorite who I will never mention his name,
Speaker 1: after my favorite general manager, who's Fio and one with
Speaker 1: the Redskins, And I just tweeted this very clearly. I said,
Speaker 1: I said, you people calling for Askins of the dumbest
Speaker 1: human beings of all time because the starters aren't ready
Speaker 1: to play, how do you think the backups could be
Speaker 1: ready to play? I got so many tweets like that, like, oh,
Speaker 1: you think we should put it Haskins against the Bears? Now?
Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? You'll ruin the kid. Let's get
Speaker 1: into a gentleman, Let's get into our best bets of
Speaker 1: the week, Mike, real quick circle million update. How many
Speaker 1: people at thirteen and two? Three at the top. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we have three at thirteen and two, and then we
Speaker 1: have ten at twelve two and one and ten at
Speaker 1: twelve and three. So there are twenty three people either
Speaker 1: at the leader within one game of the leading. Heading
Speaker 1: into the final week of September, Todd wishnev is in
Speaker 1: this ship not for the not for the quarterly, but
Speaker 1: for the for the whole kitten caboodle. He's in this. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think if you, if you over the course of
Speaker 1: the season, hit hit, hit at the rate he's hitting,
Speaker 1: you're right there in the conversation. Because remember we're talking
Speaker 1: about Westgate having almost double the amount of people. So
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to take that kind of
Speaker 1: a percentage to win this thing. Just because of the
Speaker 1: sample size, right, you won't know. The randomness is that
Speaker 1: much more muted. Exactly. The nice thing about Circle again again,
Speaker 1: if you go oh, in twenty the first four weeks,
Speaker 1: and then you go five and oh week five, it's
Speaker 1: all good because then you have a three week sprint
Speaker 1: to try to get a hundred forty seven thousand in
Speaker 1: the quarterly. So just a great contest over there at Circle. Mike,
Speaker 1: we start with you, Mike Palm. Actually, you know what,
Speaker 1: let's let's go to our guest, Michael Lombardi. Michael, you
Speaker 1: said you might have a pick or two. What do
Speaker 1: you like best on this late You know, I like
Speaker 1: the Denver broncos I think that Denver is a you know,
Speaker 1: they if you if I were to tell you you
Speaker 1: that that Denver would not have a fumble, created, would
Speaker 1: not have a sack, and would not have an interception.
Speaker 1: After three games, I would say, well, there's another planet
Speaker 1: I'm living on. And if I would also tell you
Speaker 1: that Jill Flacco's numbers, his numbers are similar to what
Speaker 1: his numbers were in two thousand and fourteen. Now they're
Speaker 1: not great, don't get me wrong, and they're not great,
Speaker 1: but he's averaging seven yards per attempt down the field,
Speaker 1: which is highest since two thousand and fourteen. He's had
Speaker 1: five passes over twenty five yards this year. Now, he's
Speaker 1: not playing great, but what he's been able to do
Speaker 1: is their defense is only playing about twenty eight minutes,
Speaker 1: so they're playing less defense, which is one of the
Speaker 1: things that I love the most is teams that play
Speaker 1: less defense. Beans you can play good defense. And I
Speaker 1: think the listen line has moved. It's it's open to three.
Speaker 1: It's I think the Sharps are playing Denver a little
Speaker 1: bit three and a half. We knowe Denver's twenty two
Speaker 1: and going into the first game of the year against
Speaker 1: the Bears that they kind of got ripped off and lost,
Speaker 1: they should be twenty three and oh in the month
Speaker 1: of September. I Denver to bounce back this week. I
Speaker 1: think they'll create some turnovers for Gardner, McKay Minshew and uh.
Speaker 1: And I just hope that they give the ball to
Speaker 1: for Neet because if there's ever a more overrated player
Speaker 1: in the NFL, it's for that. We were talking about
Speaker 1: him for fantasy purposes today with Todd Wright on the
Speaker 1: show on a numbers games just awful. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: step in, Mike and take my turn on the button
Speaker 1: because I have Denver two as uh my first best bet.
Speaker 1: Denver is favored by three. It is extra juice, but
Speaker 1: it is three across the board. And I agree with
Speaker 1: everything you're saying, Michael. For the third strade game, Von Miller,
Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb, Denver defense, no sack, no turnover forced. If
Speaker 1: there was a game where Vic Fangio can get his
Speaker 1: defense to do something, it's against the quarterback who has
Speaker 1: only had two career starts in Gardner Minshew. Yes, I know,
Speaker 1: he has a seventy four percent completion percentage, the highest
Speaker 1: in any players first three career games since the merger
Speaker 1: minimum seventy attempts. But if there was ever a game
Speaker 1: that this defense should show up and you're only giving three.
Speaker 1: I too, am taking the Roncos is my first bet.
Speaker 1: The only caveat I will say here, Michael is let's
Speaker 1: see how long it takes for us to text each
Speaker 1: other and say, oh my god, we're betting on the
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco face. That's the only thing. It's the only
Speaker 1: thing I'm worried about. I'll send that. I'll send that
Speaker 1: text before the game. I promise you. Flacco sacked six times,
Speaker 1: by the way last week in Denver's loss. Mike Palm
Speaker 1: your first best bet, sir, well, At the risk of
Speaker 1: offending Michael Lombardi, I'm gonna go to a game that
Speaker 1: I think the wrong team is favored here and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take the Vikings plus two uh at Soldier Field.
Speaker 1: If not for the fact that Kirk Cousins hasn't won
Speaker 1: a big game since he threw the Hail Mary against
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson's Badgers, and he's Lansing, I would bet all
Speaker 1: of Todd wishnavs, Visa and paycheck on the Vikings on
Speaker 1: this game. I how that is bold. I think Minnesota
Speaker 1: benefits from having this game earlier in the year. Where
Speaker 1: it's not going to be a frigid soldier field. It
Speaker 1: should be very nice, almost perfect football weather with a
Speaker 1: three kick in Chicago. I think that Minnesota is so
Speaker 1: far the best team in the NFC. They actually dominated
Speaker 1: Green Bay for three quarters of that game in lambeau Field.
Speaker 1: I'm very impressed with their ability to run the football
Speaker 1: right at you, and yet they still have all the
Speaker 1: talent at wide receiver and tight end. It's a formidable defense. Uh.
Speaker 1: I think there's a little bit of a coaching edge
Speaker 1: in terms of of just from the fact that Naggi
Speaker 1: is so limited in what he can do with Trabinsky. Now,
Speaker 1: I thought Trabinsky looked a little better trying to run
Speaker 1: this hurry up offense. But then again, I remind myself
Speaker 1: it's the Washington Redskins defense, and you know, a good
Speaker 1: Texas six A team could go up and down the
Speaker 1: field against them as well. So I'm gonna take Minnesota
Speaker 1: and take a couple of points on the road here
Speaker 1: against the Bears. You know what, I actually think the
Speaker 1: Redskins defense is actually pretty good. I just don't think
Speaker 1: if you give them ten yards to defend right and
Speaker 1: they're on the field all game along, I don't know
Speaker 1: that we get a real accurate spate of them. The
Speaker 1: other thing that Minnesota has done great, They've kept Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins off the field. So Cousins fifteen of twenty one
Speaker 1: last week a hundred seventy four yards for the second
Speaker 1: time in two Minnesota wins. They did not even attempt
Speaker 1: a fourth quarter pass so against Atlanta and then last
Speaker 1: week again who they played last week? Again? Real quick,
Speaker 1: I can't remember Minnesota the Raiders both of those games,
Speaker 1: not a single for fourth quarter past and remember that
Speaker 1: went against Atlanta. Eleven dropbacks for the whole game, ten
Speaker 1: pass attempts from Cousins. So I guess whatever works. Dalvin
Speaker 1: Cook sixteen for one ten last week after missing nineteen
Speaker 1: of his first thirty four games. Michael LAMBARTI, did you
Speaker 1: want to respond to Mike Palm taking the vikings there
Speaker 1: at all? I love it. I think that when you
Speaker 1: look at when you look at this game, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know what you've got is you know we talked
Speaker 1: about coaching. You know, Mike Zimmers, Uh, Mike Zimmer understands
Speaker 1: how to play the great Mitchell Robinsky. Mitchell's average five
Speaker 1: yards for past attempt in the games that he's had
Speaker 1: to play. Last year they went to get Last year
Speaker 1: they won both games only because they could run the ball.
Speaker 1: Last year they ran for three seven yards in those
Speaker 1: two games. You know, m v P. Mitch has thrown
Speaker 1: twenty five passes over ten yards this year, Gil and
Speaker 1: m v P. Mitchell has completed six of them. So
Speaker 1: anytime you're getting the points and Mitchell's your opponent, I say, go,
Speaker 1: I want to ask you this question. Is there anybody
Speaker 1: in your guess, in your posts uh NFL employed life,
Speaker 1: let's say, in your broadcasting life, that you have had
Speaker 1: in your craws more than Mitchell Drobiski? Does anybody you've
Speaker 1: hated more? You know? And I don't hate him. I
Speaker 1: just hate people's ignorance. I hate people thinking that that
Speaker 1: what you're that you're you're using this as an agenda.
Speaker 1: I don't have an agenda, you know. I off readily
Speaker 1: admit if I would have been the general manager of
Speaker 1: the Bears, I would have stayed at three and I
Speaker 1: would have picked the Shawn Watson and I would have
Speaker 1: probably had to listen to people tell me I should
Speaker 1: have picked the homes and they were right, you know,
Speaker 1: But to pick a quarterback that did play one year
Speaker 1: at North Carolina, didn't get didn't get scholarship to play
Speaker 1: quarterback at Ohio State, and then trying to convince me
Speaker 1: that he's coming around, he's playing better. When he goes
Speaker 1: against the correndous secondary, throws the ball, Damn they're out
Speaker 1: of bounds on the deep throw that the kid makes
Speaker 1: an incredible catch and keeps his feet in bounds. Anytime
Speaker 1: he throws the ball, you're working extra hard to catch it.
Speaker 1: Accuracy is something you can't improve in quarterbacks. And so
Speaker 1: when the game's on the line, look, let's let's be
Speaker 1: honest here. This game is gonna be a third down game.
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer is one of the best third down coaches
Speaker 1: in football. This is where he wins. You've got to
Speaker 1: try to stay away from third down and stay out
Speaker 1: of that for me and stay out of those situations.
Speaker 1: And when you look at Mitchell, you know Mitchell's not
Speaker 1: a good third down The game goes too fast for him.
Speaker 1: So I'm not I'm not you know, I hate I
Speaker 1: don't hate the guy, but I do know that if
Speaker 1: if Mike Zimmer stops the run in this game and
Speaker 1: puts it on Mitchell and Mitchell has to expend throw
Speaker 1: over ten yards. I think that I think Mike Mike
Speaker 1: Palm is correct. I think that that it's favors, its
Speaker 1: favors Minnesota take the points and watch Mitchell. Yeah. And
Speaker 1: I don't mean to and to insinuate that you hate
Speaker 1: him personally, but just the the game and all the
Speaker 1: things that you said. I'll say this here. I'll say
Speaker 1: it on the podcast because I I don't say it
Speaker 1: on Visa and when we do our segments because it's
Speaker 1: a bit of a third rail. But I guess maybe
Speaker 1: it's because I was also watching the great ESPN one
Speaker 1: fifty year uh College Football Special America's game and they
Speaker 1: did one on integration. Um. So this is kind of
Speaker 1: close to home because my ex father in law was
Speaker 1: a great high school quarterback African American in Fullerton, California.
Speaker 1: He later became a great safety for the Over the
Speaker 1: Hill Gang Washington Redskins. But when he was recruited as
Speaker 1: a quarterback, his name is Brig brig Owens. His name,
Speaker 1: his first name is Brig. He was recruited by b
Speaker 1: y U and they thought sight unseen. They just saw
Speaker 1: his stats that he was short for Brigham and so
Speaker 1: they recruit him at b y U and then when
Speaker 1: they saw him on campus, they were like, uh no,
Speaker 1: this can't work. This is back in the sixties. I'm
Speaker 1: wondering the Robiskie thing where they traded up guy played
Speaker 1: one year at North Carolina, didn't draft to Shaun Watson,
Speaker 1: didn't draft Patrick Mahomes. We're are still seeing a lot
Speaker 1: of this in football. And I guess what I'm saying
Speaker 1: is if a black quarterback played one season at North Carolina,
Speaker 1: would they have traded up to draft him? Like, I
Speaker 1: really wonder if we still have a little of that
Speaker 1: still lurking in the NFL. Yeah, I mean I don't.
Speaker 1: I think we fall in love with I think Ryan
Speaker 1: Pace fell in love with potential, and you know, and
Speaker 1: and I think that anytime you fall in love with potential,
Speaker 1: because there's no way you take a quarterback in the
Speaker 1: same conference the guys won the Player of the Conference
Speaker 1: two years in a row called the a CEC. You
Speaker 1: take the guy who played at North Carolina one year.
Speaker 1: Like if I went upstairs and said to Millie, my wife, Look,
Speaker 1: we're gonna take a guy from the a c C.
Speaker 1: But he's not the best quarterback in the conference. He
Speaker 1: didn't start three years and he didn't win the national championship.
Speaker 1: Her CPA instincts would say to me, you're an idiot.
Speaker 1: Go back back to your office. Yeah, And and can
Speaker 1: I just say, like for people who are like, oh, Gail,
Speaker 1: you can't say that, I'll give me that. Sam Donald,
Speaker 1: Josh Rosen, Josh Allen all drafted ahead of Lamar Jackson. Right,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson looks pretty good to me, Gil I I
Speaker 1: wrote that. I wrote that for the for my article
Speaker 1: for the Athletic tomorrow. And if you go to and
Speaker 1: I don't look, I don't buy a lot of like,
Speaker 1: I'm not against analytics, so I like objective things like
Speaker 1: the Madden ratings. I do. I think you know they're
Speaker 1: completely objective. Whether you agree with it or not. There's
Speaker 1: no bias in it. So it's based strictly on numbers.
Speaker 1: For Whisky was the worst quarterback in the Madden ratings.
Speaker 1: But if you go to q BR and whether you
Speaker 1: like to BR or not, and you revisit that draft,
Speaker 1: that Donald Baker Mayfield draft, I mean, Lamar Jackson has
Speaker 1: an eighty quarterback rating. They can make sure us a
Speaker 1: forty think about that. Something to think about. I have
Speaker 1: two questions. First, of the last three episodes, we did
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game first, and we just skip that
Speaker 1: for no reason. To goodness, I'm an idiot. Yes, we
Speaker 1: should have said, let's let's get your first best bet
Speaker 1: and we'll go right to the Thursday game. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make I'm gonna make my best bet the
Speaker 1: Thursday game to save you, Mr Doctor Gill, and I
Speaker 1: I am going to go with phil Ladelphia Eagles plus
Speaker 1: the full. But now, do I like the Philadelphia Eagles? No?
Speaker 1: Do I think they can run the ball? No? I
Speaker 1: like what's happening with them this year. No, I don't
Speaker 1: like any of it. So you say, why do you
Speaker 1: take the Philadelphia Eagles. Here's why. The Philadelphia Eagles are
Speaker 1: oh and three against the spread. The Green Bay Packers
Speaker 1: are three and oh against the spread. In my short
Speaker 1: life of gambling on football, if you take teams that
Speaker 1: are oh and three against the spread versus teams that
Speaker 1: are three and o against the spread, you tend to
Speaker 1: do well. Can I make a case for how the
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, down by ten in the last two minutes
Speaker 1: will get a backdoor touchdown to lose by three. I
Speaker 1: can can I also see the Philadelphia Eagles mustering everything
Speaker 1: they have for this game in order to stay in
Speaker 1: the race at one and two right now, Yes, I
Speaker 1: can do. I think the Green Bay Packers are amazing. Well.
Speaker 1: I think they played great on defense against Robinsky, But
Speaker 1: we've just heard what Mike Lombardi said about Dr Biski.
Speaker 1: I think they really should have lost the game against
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings and that wasn't that great. And this
Speaker 1: past week they got to play Fannie Pack Fangio at home.
Speaker 1: So what have they really accomplished in this in this
Speaker 1: season so far? Nothing amazing? Four points at the Lauder
Speaker 1: in an NFL game. The Philadelphia Eagles are still a
Speaker 1: pro team. I like Peterson, give me the Philadelphia Eagles
Speaker 1: on Thursday night. I think you should do all of
Speaker 1: your betting capsules by answering your own questions. Call in response.
Speaker 1: I think this, No, I do not. I'm in the
Speaker 1: question and answer mode because I'm watching a lot of
Speaker 1: congressional hearings today. Take care to care to give your
Speaker 1: politics on that todd at all? Do you want now?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pass. I'm gonna pass. I've already stepped on race.
Speaker 1: You might as well stop step on politics. You'll have
Speaker 1: no listeners by the time I'm done, Gill, I know
Speaker 1: I won't. Philadelphia at Green Bay is the Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: I should have started there. I am not right for
Speaker 1: having forgotten that, but Todd saves me here. Uh sick.
Speaker 1: Mike Palm, do you have any thoughts on tonight's game?
Speaker 1: If I played the game, I think I would lean
Speaker 1: Packers first half just because of the way these two
Speaker 1: teams have played so far. The Packers have been much better,
Speaker 1: excuse me, in first half of games, and the Eagles
Speaker 1: have been awful in first half of the game. I
Speaker 1: mean they were. They got down seventeen to nothing to
Speaker 1: the Washington Redskins for God's sakes. Uh down at the halfway, right, yeah? Yeah,
Speaker 1: down at the half. Well, the Packers have played well
Speaker 1: in first half, and and you know, look how they
Speaker 1: came out against Minnesota in the first quarters. So I
Speaker 1: would lean to Lane three in the first half with
Speaker 1: the Packers here. Forty five of the packers fifty eight
Speaker 1: points this year, fifty eight have been scored in the
Speaker 1: first half. Michael Lombardi, Does that tell you something about
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur and coaching staff right off the bat at
Speaker 1: half times. Yeah, it does, you know, And I think
Speaker 1: I'm I'm I leaned towards I think both calls are
Speaker 1: the right for me, the right calls. I think when
Speaker 1: you look at the Eagles, they've only scored twenty three
Speaker 1: first half points all year. We know that the Packers
Speaker 1: are first to have point team at last week seven drops.
Speaker 1: You know the really the Eagles gave that game away
Speaker 1: and the concern you have the Eagles their number one
Speaker 1: sacker on their team is Zundejo in the free safety.
Speaker 1: That doesn't work if you're Jim Schwartz. Your defensive line
Speaker 1: has to control the game. Their defensive lines beat up.
Speaker 1: But I do think that on a short week. Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz is only five and eight in his last third
Speaker 1: team games, he's when you pressure them. But I just
Speaker 1: have a feeling they're gonna come out and this is
Speaker 1: the first time I really think that the Packers are
Speaker 1: gonna get challenged with the quarterback who can move, can
Speaker 1: make plays, and I think that they can handle it.
Speaker 1: They'll run the ball out of the spread. When you
Speaker 1: look at the Green Bay defense when they have to
Speaker 1: play against shotgun formation. That the teams have carried the
Speaker 1: ball twenty three times for a hundred seven yards, it's
Speaker 1: almost five yards to carry. I think that's why the
Speaker 1: Eagles will do it. And I think the Eagles are well.
Speaker 1: I think the Eagles could win out right, and I
Speaker 1: do think they'll cover. Yeah, Eagles are nothing for me tonight.
Speaker 1: I could tease them. I could play him on the
Speaker 1: money line. I'm all about the Eagles tonight catching the four. Mike, Paul,
Speaker 1: you needs a tissue, man? You okay? Back there? Well, no,
Speaker 1: I'm alright, so wonderful Gil before we go to the
Speaker 1: second pick, can I ask Mike Lombardi a quick questions? Okay,
Speaker 1: Mike Lombardi, here's my question. I love I've been listening
Speaker 1: to you since you were way way back on Bill
Speaker 1: Simmons and then with GM Street and blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: I love when you are just so candid about how
Speaker 1: you feel about these teams. Do you get a lot
Speaker 1: of blowback from NFL people because you're like, Mike, why
Speaker 1: are you throwing my guy this guy under the bus
Speaker 1: and this guy under the bus and this guy under
Speaker 1: the bus. Do you get blowback No, I don't get
Speaker 1: any blowback. I mean, I talked to a lot of
Speaker 1: people in the league and a lot of people like
Speaker 1: listen to the podcast, my podcast, the GM Shuffle. I
Speaker 1: think it's pretty much that they know I'm I'm That's
Speaker 1: just the way I've always been, and I've always been honest.
Speaker 1: I can't really fudget. I'm not going to be political
Speaker 1: and say, oh, you're playing great today, you know, by
Speaker 1: the way, Baker Mayfield, you know, it's okay. You've got
Speaker 1: twenty one passes knocked down at the you know, and
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes only has three. That's not a problem. You know.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do that. I think I thought that
Speaker 1: was the most refreshing thing about Rex Ryan coming out
Speaker 1: about Baker Maysher. He finally made a stand about something,
Speaker 1: you know, like like you have opinions, like you gotta
Speaker 1: give your opinions. So I don't really get much blowback.
Speaker 1: I'm sure I'm not probably popular in Los Angeles and
Speaker 1: the Rams. I mean McVey I talked to McVeigh, but
Speaker 1: on their front office probably doesn't talk to me because
Speaker 1: I think they just gave one of the most ridiculous
Speaker 1: contracts to a guy in the last in the last
Speaker 1: eleven games, that's throwing eleven touchdown passes and eleven interceptions
Speaker 1: and the averages under seven yards per passion attempt. You know,
Speaker 1: you want to give a hundred eighty million dollars to
Speaker 1: that guy? Feel free? That's a great question, Todd. I've
Speaker 1: always wanted to ask Michael that maybe I have in
Speaker 1: the past, but I certainly think that's a great question.
Speaker 1: And I do like that that Jared Golf take, and
Speaker 1: you and I got into this little Michael the other
Speaker 1: day because I agree with that. I really felt like,
Speaker 1: and this is like again would make NFL heads explode
Speaker 1: and fans has this club, But I really felt like
Speaker 1: Jared Golf might have been the first guy, the first
Speaker 1: quarterback who was drafted high, who they would have had
Speaker 1: on a rookie contract, tried to win as much as
Speaker 1: possible with him, and then said to themselves, he is
Speaker 1: what he is, but we're not going to give him
Speaker 1: all this money, and they would have essentially started from scratch.
Speaker 1: We've never seen that in the NFL, and obviously it's
Speaker 1: not happening here because they threw a hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: four million at him, a hundred and ten guaranteed. Good lord,
Speaker 1: it's awesome. Good for him. All right, let's do the
Speaker 1: second best bets. Michael Lombardi, do you have a second
Speaker 1: guest best bet or did you want to just uh
Speaker 1: staying after the Denver pick? Well, you know, I uh,
Speaker 1: I mean the games that I like, the ones that
Speaker 1: I talked about on my podcast is uh. You know.
Speaker 1: I talked about green Day and Philadelphia. I like them.
Speaker 1: I talked about Denver and Jacksonville. I really like Seattle
Speaker 1: and laying the points against Arizona. I don't Arizona didn't struggle.
Speaker 1: They struggled back against Carolina. Carolina only allowed a hundred
Speaker 1: twenty seven yards passing. I think Seattle. I think Groan
Speaker 1: Wilson is having an MVP season now. They've turned the
Speaker 1: ball over too much and it's always about the ball
Speaker 1: to ball the ball when you're dealing with pet Carroll.
Speaker 1: But I just think that to me, these are two
Speaker 1: teams that are just different, and one team's coming off
Speaker 1: a loss, and the level of importance is far greater
Speaker 1: for Seattle. They can't get behind. They've got to get
Speaker 1: more out of clowning. I think Iron Zoom will play
Speaker 1: this week. Clowning has had one sack and one harry
Speaker 1: all season. They need to get much more out of
Speaker 1: him to be able to be effective. But I think
Speaker 1: in this game without Patrick Peterson, that secondary is really bad.
Speaker 1: And I think what you see Wilson in average and
Speaker 1: eight point six yards per tenth a hundred nineteen quarterback rating,
Speaker 1: seven touchdown passes, one interception, you know, and so they
Speaker 1: got to find a way to get the pressure on
Speaker 1: the passer. And I think that Russell Wilson will do that.
Speaker 1: And as long as this line stays four or under,
Speaker 1: I think it's at five now. It opened at four,
Speaker 1: it moved, it moved to five. I liked it really
Speaker 1: at four. I think at five I still would take
Speaker 1: it in five and a halfs to but five is
Speaker 1: the can sense is still Seattle was like my fifth
Speaker 1: or sixth highest picks. So they can't make my top
Speaker 1: three here. I don't hate it, that's for sure. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to a total here. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Bills under forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: I think you're dealing with two of the top five
Speaker 1: defenses in the NFL. With when I think the Patriots
Speaker 1: are the best defense, but the Bills have been very
Speaker 1: good early in the year as well. You're gonna have
Speaker 1: a big game here, a divisional matchup, and I think
Speaker 1: this game will be played pretty close to the vest
Speaker 1: in Orchard Park. We've seen this game traditionally be low
Speaker 1: scoring when it is an Orchard Park. I make this
Speaker 1: number myself about thirty nine and a half, so I
Speaker 1: thought there would be some value here, uh in the
Speaker 1: under at forty two and a half. All right, what
Speaker 1: were you last week on the show? By the way,
Speaker 1: you three oh two and one. We lose the total
Speaker 1: with the pick six by the Jets. We were just
Speaker 1: dead wrong on the Eagles, Gale Um. We pushed the
Speaker 1: push the Broncos total, and then we hit the teaser.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I guess the teaser. My teasers was Chiefs
Speaker 1: and Vikings one. Yeah. We were just dead wrong on
Speaker 1: the Eagles last week, although they dropped seven passes, as
Speaker 1: Lombardi said, so you know it could have gone the
Speaker 1: other way. But yeah, that that that I don't chuck
Speaker 1: that up as a bad beat or a coin flip.
Speaker 1: In the end, that's just a loss. And I had
Speaker 1: the Eagles and a teaser too, so I got screwed there.
Speaker 1: Todd picked two second pick right before. I just want
Speaker 1: to ask party because it is a Patriot UM insider.
Speaker 1: Have you ever seen and I'm not asking this because
Speaker 1: I had the Jets team total under end last week?
Speaker 1: Have you ever seen the Patriots gave up a special
Speaker 1: teams and uh pick six in the same game in
Speaker 1: the history of Bill Belichick. No, I think that's a rarity. Uh,
Speaker 1: we gave up Let's see. Yeah, we did it against
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Todd in two thousand and fifteen at the end
Speaker 1: of the at the end of the at the end
Speaker 1: of the half, we got a block punt for a
Speaker 1: touchdown against the Eagles. And then to start the second
Speaker 1: half week, it's fourteen before we built fourteen fourteen nothing
Speaker 1: to lead. Eagles came back, blocked the kick at the
Speaker 1: end of the half to to make it fourteen fourteen,
Speaker 1: and we started the second half, took it all the
Speaker 1: way down the field and Malcolm Jenkens picked it off
Speaker 1: and returned to four touchdown. They went up feen. They
Speaker 1: beat us that day. So it's happened before, but it's uncommon.
Speaker 1: And I think that what Mike said about this Patriot
Speaker 1: defense is is dead on. I think his his total
Speaker 1: is right. I think this will be two defenses that
Speaker 1: will really dominate the game. I think the Patriots will
Speaker 1: struggle to move the football against the Bills front, especially
Speaker 1: considering that Marshall Newhouse is the left tackle and they're
Speaker 1: gonna have to do everything in their power to help
Speaker 1: him against Jerry Hughes. So I think the unders the play.
Speaker 1: How about if your Jared's did him right now? Your
Speaker 1: third pass, you throw the pick six, you get benched
Speaker 1: it for Brady. He actually Beljick puts Brady back in
Speaker 1: the game. And now you signed Cody Kessler off the
Speaker 1: scrap here. Well, I think I can explain that. So
Speaker 1: here's Belotix methodology, and this is what makes him so good.
Speaker 1: He Brady's forty two years old, he can't practice, and
Speaker 1: they want to give him a day off. Well, it's
Speaker 1: hard to give him a day off when you only
Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks, right, So there's no quarterback he could
Speaker 1: put on the practice squad that he felt like he
Speaker 1: could actually have to put in a game if something
Speaker 1: happened to Brady. So he brings Kessler in. So really
Speaker 1: Kessler is like he's on his practice squad, but he's
Speaker 1: not because he has to carry him on the fifty
Speaker 1: three man roster. He'll educate him, get him caught up
Speaker 1: to teaching the offense, probably cut him in a week
Speaker 1: or two, let him sit out there, and then when
Speaker 1: he needs to bring him back and the guy has
Speaker 1: already had work, or just hang onto him, depending on
Speaker 1: what his roster manipulation needs to be. But also it
Speaker 1: gives him a chance on Wednesday to give Brady a
Speaker 1: complete day off and not where stid him out. This
Speaker 1: guy is not going to take any reps away from Stidham.
Speaker 1: He's not gonna jump stid him. He's just gonna be
Speaker 1: there to help with an arm and somebody to learn
Speaker 1: the offense. And this is classic Belicheck, thinking about twelve
Speaker 1: games down the road, ten games down the road, not tomorrow.
Speaker 1: That's why we have you on the show, Michael, roster manipulation.
Speaker 1: That's exactly, that's right, what's going on. I have no
Speaker 1: doubt you want me to give my second pick now
Speaker 1: because we got Plice waiting, right. So my second pick
Speaker 1: is the under forty seven and a half in the
Speaker 1: Carolina Houston game. And here's why. The Carolina Panthers had
Speaker 1: their backup quarterback who just might be better than Cam
Speaker 1: Newton uh and run rough shot all over Arizona. I
Speaker 1: don't think that same backup quarterback, while he may be
Speaker 1: better than Cam, is going to run rough shot all
Speaker 1: over the Houston defense. In Houston, Houston's defense put really
Speaker 1: really threw a zero against Minshew until the last intil
Speaker 1: the last drive. Um. They even went into San Diego
Speaker 1: and held Rivers down. I think they're a very good defense.
Speaker 1: If they can get ahead, they're gonna run the ball
Speaker 1: like crazy. Because Mr Bill O'Brien, first and ten run
Speaker 1: up the middle, second and eight run up the middle,
Speaker 1: third and six try to get the first down. He
Speaker 1: loves to run the clock. He loves to run the ball.
Speaker 1: He loves to be uncreative. He is Mr uncreative at
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is Mr creative, Mr Bill O'Brien and Mr
Speaker 1: Uncreative uncreate of leads to the clock being drained. The
Speaker 1: clock just tick tick tick tick tick tick tick. And
Speaker 1: guess what I'm going under the forty seven and a
Speaker 1: half because I think it's gonna be a typical Houston
Speaker 1: ball game where it's gonna be like twenty three to
Speaker 1: twenty one or one to eighteen or some crazy number
Speaker 1: because they run the clock. You just like using the
Speaker 1: word rough shot. How many how many times in life?
Speaker 1: By the way, have you used the word rough shot?
Speaker 1: Not in the context of run rough shot in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. It's interesting. But I also you've battened
Speaker 1: down the hatches this week on your other show, which
Speaker 1: is another one of my favorites, because old Jimmy g
Speaker 1: better battened down the hatches or it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: long season than the niner Lands. That's right. It's usually
Speaker 1: hurricane talk, bad dada hatches, like actually protecting yourself from hurricane,
Speaker 1: but Todd managed to use it there. Um. My second
Speaker 1: pick is the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs. I'm going with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They're given six on the road at what's
Speaker 1: called six and a half to be fair, that's consensus
Speaker 1: on the road at Detroit. And this is nothing more
Speaker 1: than me saying it's the Chiefs by less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1: I don't care where they are. They're at Detroit and
Speaker 1: Matt Patricia, this gets back to that coaching thing I
Speaker 1: talked about where I'm just gonna do my power rankings
Speaker 1: on coaches. I like Andy Reid a whole bunch better
Speaker 1: than I like Matt Patricia. And as long as you
Speaker 1: give me the Chiefs lesson a touchdown. Look at last week,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson needed circus plays like just throwing the ball
Speaker 1: up in the air. Miraculously Ravens receivers came down with
Speaker 1: it for Kansas City backers to lose that bet. That
Speaker 1: was the magic of Lamar Jackson, who can get away
Speaker 1: from anything. I'll take the same exact number on Kansas
Speaker 1: City on the road this time, mind you, I get it.
Speaker 1: But I'll take the exact number on the road against Detroit,
Speaker 1: who I fear not at all. And I know people
Speaker 1: are high on Detroit. They are undefeated, they are two
Speaker 1: oh and one. But you know what proved me wrong.
Speaker 1: I'll take the Kansas City Chiefs offense every day of
Speaker 1: the week when it's less in a touchdown minus six
Speaker 1: and a half. Here Chiefs my second pick. By the way, Gil,
Speaker 1: I love it because guess what. Detroit had two games
Speaker 1: that were given to them, and the other game was
Speaker 1: that debacle in Arizona, total debacle. I had them first weekend.
Speaker 1: We both did just horrific. I think you know, I
Speaker 1: think the team speed of the Chiefs, I think the
Speaker 1: Chiefs are always gonna be primed for a backdoor cover.
Speaker 1: I mean, I I learned. I listened to you today
Speaker 1: talk about uh being right on picks and coming out.
Speaker 1: You know, these guys like Mike, these guys are thirteen
Speaker 1: and two. It's truly there is a degree of luck
Speaker 1: because I don't think you could have handicapped that getting
Speaker 1: better than thinking the Chiefs were gonna beat the Ravens
Speaker 1: by more than five and a half, and yet you
Speaker 1: still lost because you're up thirty to thirteen, your kid
Speaker 1: misses an extra point right and then and then you
Speaker 1: have this huge lead, and then when the clock becomes
Speaker 1: your opponent, they don't care about the spread. So in
Speaker 1: this sports handicapping world, you've got to almost look at
Speaker 1: the you have to look at the clock as a
Speaker 1: dimension that you're dealing with as well. And so you know,
Speaker 1: I definitely think the Chiefs will beat the Lions. I
Speaker 1: think the Lions, like Todd said, are are much fortunate team.
Speaker 1: They've avoid losing before they've won. But I've always I'm
Speaker 1: scared to death that these backdoor covers are gonna catch
Speaker 1: you on this because the Chiefs are not that great
Speaker 1: on defense, and they'll they'll deal with the clock as
Speaker 1: opposed to the opponent. It is a great point to
Speaker 1: make always susceptible to the back door. I guess with
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I'm gonna need to be beaten over the
Speaker 1: head twice before I stopped doing it with the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: But Lamar Jackson was one thing. But if Detroit can
Speaker 1: do it again, tip of the cap for me. But
Speaker 1: it is a valid point. Todd was was harping on
Speaker 1: the back door covers at nauseum. May I use that
Speaker 1: nauseum for you to I had Todsum do it because
Speaker 1: it's so so much of the NFL comes down to
Speaker 1: the back door cover's. I hate to say it, but
Speaker 1: you have to handicap it. And and you know on
Speaker 1: your show on Wednesdays, I go on there and I
Speaker 1: talk about who got the back door touchdowns and who didn't.
Speaker 1: And if you don't keep track of it, folks, you're
Speaker 1: gonna to get well, you know, I think the point
Speaker 1: that we made on that show, and kudos to you
Speaker 1: for making it when we were kids, right, whether it
Speaker 1: was the Redskins or the Giants or the Niners of
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, whatever dynasty, whatever many dynasty we had going
Speaker 1: on in those days, those teams would blow out opponents
Speaker 1: every single game, right, and they would not those It
Speaker 1: would be nothing for those teams to win games by
Speaker 1: thirty points week in and week out. Today. We just
Speaker 1: don't see that in today's NFL, and we and you
Speaker 1: wonder there has to be a reason for that, like
Speaker 1: all the dynamics that are in play, and so much
Speaker 1: of that is perhaps the talent is more evenly spread
Speaker 1: across the board, but a lot of it has to
Speaker 1: do with the officiating, right, the fact that that everybody
Speaker 1: has such an offensive advantage now, the way that flags
Speaker 1: are drawn, and so it's probably easier for worst teams
Speaker 1: to keep games close. I mean, Michael, I don't know
Speaker 1: what your theories are on that, but there's there are
Speaker 1: so many dynamics that make games not as consistently blow
Speaker 1: up natured in this era. Yeah, I mean, I think
Speaker 1: to me, it's especially with the Chiefs. I know. One
Speaker 1: thing about Andy Reid is you never really have to
Speaker 1: worry about him going conservative on you, like if he's
Speaker 1: actually if he's behind, you're in a better position to
Speaker 1: handle the over the cover. Then when if he's ahead,
Speaker 1: because he's you know, he's gonna keep trying to score.
Speaker 1: I mean, I've always said Andy Reid's like the fat
Speaker 1: guy at the buffet lin He's just gonna keep scoring
Speaker 1: and scoring and scoring. He don't care, you know, and
Speaker 1: he doesn't He never works three dimension like he did
Speaker 1: in the Patriot game at home. But I do think
Speaker 1: that the speed of this game is too much for Detroit,
Speaker 1: and especially the slaves hurt, and then they're gonna and Melvin.
Speaker 1: They're going after Melvine like you can't. I mean, he
Speaker 1: will be Harold Melvin and the blue notes. By the
Speaker 1: time this game for Chards, Melville will be done and
Speaker 1: there will be no Py Teddy Pendergrass to save him either.
Speaker 1: Excellent R and B referencing from Michael Lombardi. I love
Speaker 1: that Teddy Pendergrass. Of course he went onto solo fame
Speaker 1: and it was tragically paralyzing the what a great great
Speaker 1: voice Teddy Pendergrass at back in the day. Okay, so
Speaker 1: final picks and Michael, so, Michael's kind of given three.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia was one of yours, Denver was the other. And
Speaker 1: you like Seattle May, I asked Michael Lombardi a question
Speaker 1: before I get my third picks, since Todd's already asked
Speaker 1: two yes, please of course, Michael. I I believe that
Speaker 1: if he stays healthy, that Patrick Mahomes may go down as,
Speaker 1: if not the greatest, one of the greatest quarterbacks in
Speaker 1: the history of the NFL from the skill set that
Speaker 1: he's shown so far. Your thoughts on that, you know, Mike,
Speaker 1: I watched him every week and I'm marveled at him.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's truly remarkable. He has incredible sense instincts
Speaker 1: in the pocket, he feels the pressure, never takes his
Speaker 1: eyes off the field, he throws it down the field.
Speaker 1: The fact he's played three games and only three of
Speaker 1: his football's have been touched by the opponent, just three,
Speaker 1: As I've mentioned, Baker Mayfield's had twenty one touched by
Speaker 1: the opponent, right, So you can't get your ends on
Speaker 1: the ball. He can escape, He's elusive, and then he
Speaker 1: forces you to defend every single blade of grass vertically
Speaker 1: and horizontally. So the way the game is today and
Speaker 1: the way the way his talent sets up for the
Speaker 1: game today, I could not I could not the three
Speaker 1: with that statement. I mean he's remarkable. And let me
Speaker 1: say this, I love DeShawn Watson, and I think Deshaun
Speaker 1: Watson has flat out remarkable. I mean, the first three
Speaker 1: weeks of the season, Deshaun Watson is great, but my
Speaker 1: Homes just does it at such a little higher level.
Speaker 1: Poor Deshaun Watson until last week, twelve consecutive games getting
Speaker 1: sacked four times. I believe it was just ridiculous. You know, Gil,
Speaker 1: I think he I think he I think he does that.
Speaker 1: It's a little bit like, uh, it's just his style
Speaker 1: of play. I mean, he's not a true rhythm thrower.
Speaker 1: He's gonna hold the ball a little longer than you want.
Speaker 1: But some of the escapes that he's gotten out of
Speaker 1: are just flat out remarkable. And then he breaks place
Speaker 1: down with his unique ability. Eight games in a row
Speaker 1: with four sacks. Pardon me, eight games, not twelve. Still
Speaker 1: one question before Mike gives his pick. You said, Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes has only had three balls touched by an opponent
Speaker 1: three passes. Where are you getting those numbers from? That's amazing. Well,
Speaker 1: you know stack pass has them. If you go to
Speaker 1: stack pass Think or whatever that site, or if you
Speaker 1: go to the clubs most of the times you can
Speaker 1: go to the clubs, uh, the the releases. They keep
Speaker 1: track of passes defended by the opponent and passes defended
Speaker 1: by your team. And I've always looked at that because
Speaker 1: that tells you who's making plays on the football. You
Speaker 1: can't you can't get an incomplete pass if you don't
Speaker 1: break it up. I mean mostly you know you've got
Speaker 1: to hope for a drop and so the team. And
Speaker 1: it also is an indication of team speed of your defense.
Speaker 1: So if you have don't have a lot of passes defended,
Speaker 1: you don't have pretty good team speed. The other alia
Speaker 1: you want to evaluate team speed and is in fumbles
Speaker 1: forced fumbles, because the speed at it's Einstein's theory, a velocity,
Speaker 1: you know, power and specs, you know whatever that is.
Speaker 1: I'm not a math major, but you know, and so
Speaker 1: that you can see it. And I always look at
Speaker 1: whose fource bumbles. It truly goes back to your team.
Speaker 1: Speedy defensive lineman that run after the football. They tackled
Speaker 1: the running back from behind with speed, that ball comes out.
Speaker 1: Love it stat task P A. S. S Got. My
Speaker 1: final best bet is the Sunday night game. And I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take the two and a half points with the
Speaker 1: home dog, New Orleans Saints against the Dallas Cowboys. A
Speaker 1: couple of facts. I preach, preach, Mike, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I still think that that Superdome is a tough place
Speaker 1: to play for an opponent Number one, number two. I
Speaker 1: think there's a huge coaching mismatch in this game between
Speaker 1: Peyton and coach Clapper. Number three. I think the more
Speaker 1: time Teddy Bridgewater gets behind center in these games and
Speaker 1: with this offense, the more comfortable he's going to become
Speaker 1: um and he will continue to to improve as he
Speaker 1: is he fills in for Breeze for the next five
Speaker 1: or six weeks. I think Kamar gives him so many
Speaker 1: options both catching the ball and running the ball out
Speaker 1: of the backfield. I think this Dallas offense will have
Speaker 1: trouble with the noise and the dome. And I really
Speaker 1: think that New Orleans is a side that's gonna win
Speaker 1: this game. Not just covered the two and a half
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. I think the wrong team is favorite.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you heard my rand on guessing
Speaker 1: lines on Monday, um I was shocked that this spread
Speaker 1: was what it was Dallas has beaten nobody, right, the Redskins,
Speaker 1: the Giants, and the Miami Dolphins. Um, and it's it's
Speaker 1: it's still the Superdome, it's still prime time. And yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll take the points, thank you very much. And yes,
Speaker 1: the coaching is the other thing. Again, getting back to
Speaker 1: the coaching rankings. Sean Payton against the Clapper copyright Michael Lombardi.
Speaker 1: I'll take that every day, Michael. I would add this
Speaker 1: to Look, I'm a big believer in you're coming back
Speaker 1: to the lead at some point. So Prescott's been unbelievable, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know he's played the Miami secondary. We
Speaker 1: know what they are, the Giants secondary, really bad, Redskins secondary,
Speaker 1: really bad, pretty bad secondary. So he's got a nine
Speaker 1: point eight yard per attempts so so far, his career
Speaker 1: is seven five. He's got nine point six touchdown percentage.
Speaker 1: His career is four point eight. He's got a seventy
Speaker 1: five point five percentage of completion, his career sixty six.
Speaker 1: His quarterback rating is this year, it's career ninety seven
Speaker 1: point nine. At some point, it's coming back to the
Speaker 1: met at some point. Now I'm not saying you can improve,
Speaker 1: but it's gonna come back to the mean and eventually,
Speaker 1: and it's games like this that gets it back to
Speaker 1: the met and I think that that's really going to
Speaker 1: be the issue you pick, man. So so your final
Speaker 1: I'm writing them all down. Your final pick is New
Speaker 1: Orleans plus two and a half kill. Yes, I have
Speaker 1: been screaming about it all week. Okay, So so my
Speaker 1: final pick is going to be the over now now
Speaker 1: tread carefully, folks. The over forty nine in the Washington
Speaker 1: New York Giant game. I believe this game has already
Speaker 1: moved up, so it's probably not a great idea to
Speaker 1: be taking a bad number. But you know me, I
Speaker 1: do things that are bad ideas all the time. Um,
Speaker 1: over forty nine in this game. And here's why the
Speaker 1: New York Giants defense is or riffing. I watched that
Speaker 1: Bill's game. They made Josh Allen look like the second
Speaker 1: coming of Joe Montana. He was literally just throwing it
Speaker 1: down the wide open people. The Giants didn't stop Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay last year, I mean last week, and in fact,
Speaker 1: they even let him get into field goal range on
Speaker 1: the last drive. So the Giants, we know, cannot play defense.
Speaker 1: The Washington Redskins we know cannot play defense. And with
Speaker 1: that being said, Danny Dimes is the quarterback in New
Speaker 1: York who actually showed a little spunk last week in
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Now he gets to play in front of
Speaker 1: the home crowd. I think he's gonna be able to
Speaker 1: score on Washington. I think case Keenum is gonna be
Speaker 1: able to even though I don't like case Keenum. I
Speaker 1: think he can score against the putrid, abhorrent New York
Speaker 1: Giants secondary I'd say over forty nine thesaurus listening to
Speaker 1: this podcast, it might be Colt McCoy. Keep in mind,
Speaker 1: Case Keenum is in a walking boots, so could be
Speaker 1: Cool McCoy better, even better. I like Colt McCoy even
Speaker 1: better than thank you. I love Colt McCoy, I really do.
Speaker 1: I don't love Cole McCoy. But cold McCoy has never
Speaker 1: done anything wrong in a redskin uniform. Let me just
Speaker 1: point that out. He's limited, but he's never done anything
Speaker 1: truly wrong in redskin uniform. I think the Redskins might
Speaker 1: win this game. But the over is the play for Todd.
Speaker 1: Forty nine is the number Todd? Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 1: I see forty nine and forty nine and a half. Okay,
Speaker 1: So over for Todd, we'll give you the forty nine
Speaker 1: consensus on that one, all right. Yeah, and and Gil,
Speaker 1: I think it's a great call and open a six
Speaker 1: and a half. And now it's up to forty. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets to fifty. Okay.
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Speaker 1: slash GIL. Final two questions, gentlemen of the show. We
Speaker 1: close out each and every show with these, have been
Speaker 1: doing it for years on the megapod. The first is
Speaker 1: of all the big favorites on the board, what about
Speaker 1: the teasers? Gil? The teasers? I don't even know the
Speaker 1: format of my whole new show. Do I teasers? First?
Speaker 1: You're right, Todd, Todd, maybe you should take this chair? Uh? Teasers?
Speaker 1: What is your teaser the week? Let's start there. We'll
Speaker 1: give Michael Lombardi a little time to think about it,
Speaker 1: because I don't think I prepped them on teaser of
Speaker 1: the week, Mike Palm, what would be your teaser of
Speaker 1: the week? On My Guys in the Desert on Monday, Brent,
Speaker 1: you know, return very crest ball and after having watched
Speaker 1: his Raiders just get dismantled in Minnesota, Brent and I
Speaker 1: told them that I've I've come up with a formulaic
Speaker 1: teaser for your show. I'm going to do the same
Speaker 1: thing every week until I'm wrong. I'm always going to
Speaker 1: tease the Chiefs down, and I'll tease the team that's
Speaker 1: playing the Raiders down. So let's take the Yeah, let's
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs minus a half in Detroit. And you've
Speaker 1: already talked about this game, Gail. Detroit has been extremely
Speaker 1: fortunate that their two oh and one having been gifted
Speaker 1: all of those victories and ties and uh, and then
Speaker 1: the Colts will tease them down to one against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I just don't see what's to like about this team. Um, Michael,
Speaker 1: You've spoken at length about the philosophy and what are
Speaker 1: they and what they're trying to do in the mumbo
Speaker 1: jumbo that that orderzation is. And now they go to
Speaker 1: Indianapolis traveling on this ridiculous schedule where they don't get
Speaker 1: to go back to Oakland until November. So I like
Speaker 1: the Colts here big, but I'll use them in the
Speaker 1: teaser minus one and I just add I'll just step
Speaker 1: in here to mine was pick any two of the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: the Colts and the Ravens. As a tease because I
Speaker 1: love the Ravens against the Browns as well, so they
Speaker 1: might be one of my circuit picks for all I know.
Speaker 1: But any combination of those three teams Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts,
Speaker 1: I like that, Todd. I'm gonna go similar but a
Speaker 1: little different. I'm gonna go with Indie as well, because
Speaker 1: I like everything Mike Palm said, and I agree the
Speaker 1: Raiders are fraudulent, Craik. They start superior coach than Mr Gruden.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Indie, and then I'm gonna use
Speaker 1: the New England Patriot minus one and just win the
Speaker 1: game at Buffalo if Bill Belichick could somehow figure out
Speaker 1: a way not to give up a special team and
Speaker 1: a defense, again refusing to call them Patriots the Patriots
Speaker 1: for Todd at Buffalo the other the other end of
Speaker 1: his teaser, would you have any thoughts on the teaser, Michael,
Speaker 1: You know, I would take the Rams and and get
Speaker 1: that number down that mine is two. I think the
Speaker 1: Rams will win, I don't think they'll cover. And then
Speaker 1: I really, you know, I really would like the Minnesota
Speaker 1: Vikings and getting nine and a half. If I could
Speaker 1: get that, that would be like walking in the park.
Speaker 1: If I could get those two, those two would be
Speaker 1: my teaser. We'll we'll give you the rams down to three,
Speaker 1: and we'll give you the vikings up to eight and
Speaker 1: a half. About that. So I only get six points
Speaker 1: on a teaser, Okay, great, then I'll take that. That's fy.
Speaker 1: You've given me almost a touchdown without an extra point
Speaker 1: with Mitch Robiski on. I'll take that every day there
Speaker 1: there are teasers, of course that are six and a
Speaker 1: half or seven, but for our purposes on this show,
Speaker 1: we can find at six. Okay, Todd, Now it's two
Speaker 1: question time? Is the final two questions? Now I believe
Speaker 1: you've got it right. Jesus, what is wrong with me?
Speaker 1: I'm losing brain sales by the way. All right, So
Speaker 1: the first of the final two questions, which are the
Speaker 1: big favorites? Do you believe is the most likely to
Speaker 1: lose outright? Not saying you're predicting it, but of this group,
Speaker 1: what is the team that you think is the most
Speaker 1: ripe for an outright upset? And I will take it
Speaker 1: as six point favorites and higher for the purposes of
Speaker 1: today's show. So the candidates are Baltimore, Ravens six and
Speaker 1: a half let's call it seven point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against Cleveland, Kansas City six and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: on the road against Detroit. As we mentioned New England
Speaker 1: seven point favorites on the road at Buffalo, the l
Speaker 1: A Chargers fifty and a half point favorites on the
Speaker 1: road against the Miami Dolphins. Colts we mentioned seven point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against Oakland, and finally the l A
Speaker 1: Rams nine point favorites at home against Tampa Bay. Michael Lombardi,
Speaker 1: which of those big favorites do you believe is the
Speaker 1: most likely to lose? Outrightmore Baltimore? Interesting? Is that because
Speaker 1: you can see Cleveland stepping it up? Or is that
Speaker 1: more of a damning of Baltimore? I think a little
Speaker 1: bit of Baltimore Secondary. You know, they got torched a
Speaker 1: little bit by uh By, not a little bit the
Speaker 1: torch tremendously by Arizona. They got torched by Kansas City.
Speaker 1: They don't have Jimmy Smith. I think I think, you know,
Speaker 1: I think they could get beat this game. The bacteria
Speaker 1: filled Mike poem. What do you got? This is a
Speaker 1: tough one because uh I'm I'm between New England and
Speaker 1: I think we did well last we did. We all
Speaker 1: said Tampa Bay. I'm gonna go with Michael. I think you, oh,
Speaker 1: b Jake can hit him, hit that secondary couple of times.
Speaker 1: You know that the Browns have a talented defense. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I'll go with Baltimore. I almost this, for the record,
Speaker 1: I almost went with almost. I think you're right. I
Speaker 1: think that New England games will be hard game. But
Speaker 1: go ahead. I'm sorry, No, that's all right. New England
Speaker 1: and honorable Mention Todd, same thing for you. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with Baltimore too. I mean the Cleveland Baltimore game
Speaker 1: as well. And the reason is last year end of
Speaker 1: the season, Cleveland played Baltimore really, really tough. If you remember,
Speaker 1: it was a third down in ten where um Mr
Speaker 1: Jesus Baker Mayfield through the ball behind his sever Otherwise
Speaker 1: they would have been in first Uh, they would have
Speaker 1: been in field goal range to hide the game, I believe,
Speaker 1: or even win it. I can't remember. I think they
Speaker 1: were down too at the time, but they played them
Speaker 1: real tough last year. The other thing is Baltimore played
Speaker 1: Arizona at home last week before the Kansas City game,
Speaker 1: and it was only seventeen. They never really put their
Speaker 1: foot on the throat of Arizona and just killed them
Speaker 1: like I thought they were going to. They let Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray run around and stay in that game, which means
Speaker 1: to me, maybe Baltimore is not as great as we think. Now.
Speaker 1: I don't really think they're gonna lose this game, but
Speaker 1: you know, Cleveland's got some talent, and maybe they get lucky.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say New England as mine, and just really
Speaker 1: as a default because I just like it more than
Speaker 1: the others. As the answer to that question. In other words,
Speaker 1: I don't see Kansas City losing. I like Baltimore, so
Speaker 1: I'm not gravitating that way. The Chargers can't lose as
Speaker 1: a fifteen and a half point favorite, can they can they? Uh?
Speaker 1: And then the Colts I don't see losing or the Rams.
Speaker 1: So for me, the default answer would be New England
Speaker 1: on the road Division game at Buffalo. For me, Baltimore Cleveland,
Speaker 1: I'll still take John. I love analytics hardball over Freddy Kitchens.
Speaker 1: Like Freddie Kitchens to me, is that is your story
Speaker 1: is great there, Todd, but I just like this is
Speaker 1: a different staff and I just don't know about Freddie
Speaker 1: Kitchens at all. That thing he did at the end
Speaker 1: of that game where he the end of the Jets
Speaker 1: game still rings in my head. Oh, I don't like
Speaker 1: him either. Yeah, I don't like him either. I'm just saying,
Speaker 1: if we have to pick somebody, that's right, you have
Speaker 1: to pick someone alright. Final question, then, gentlemen, if we
Speaker 1: lived in a bizarro world and you were betting aside
Speaker 1: on all fifteen of these games, because we do have
Speaker 1: two buys, the Jets and the Niners, uh, let's say
Speaker 1: instead of all fifteen, you could get one free pass,
Speaker 1: you had to been on fourteen of the fifteen. What
Speaker 1: is the game on the spread that you would want
Speaker 1: no part of whatsoever? Michael Lombardi, That's always a hard one. I,
Speaker 1: on my instincts, tell me the Tennessee Atlanta because I
Speaker 1: don't like either team, and when I don't like either team,
Speaker 1: I stay away from I like that answer. I think
Speaker 1: that's my answer to Tennessee Atlanta. I have no feel
Speaker 1: for that game whatsoever. Palm. I think it's this game
Speaker 1: in South Florida between the team that never plays to win,
Speaker 1: the Chargers. They always played, not to lose against the
Speaker 1: team that's playing to lose, the Dolphins. I can't. I don't.
Speaker 1: I couldn't tease this either way. I couldn't. I have
Speaker 1: no I have no feel because Anthony Lynde, I just
Speaker 1: can't deal with him ever in my life again. I
Speaker 1: mean what he does in the second half of these
Speaker 1: games is Look, if you watch the first half of
Speaker 1: that game between the Texas and the Chargers, how would
Speaker 1: you think they were going to lose that game? If
Speaker 1: you watch the first three quarters of the game in Detroit,
Speaker 1: how would you think they're gonna lose that game? It's
Speaker 1: just remarkable. I even like the Monday night game Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: Cincinnati better than I like Chargers Miamis. I think I
Speaker 1: would agree there, Todd, which would you want to? I
Speaker 1: have to go with Tennessee and Atlanta too, because I
Speaker 1: look at Atlanta is such a jackal and high ridiculous team.
Speaker 1: How do you figure out when Matt Ryan's gonna throw
Speaker 1: the ridiculous interception? How do you figure out whether it's
Speaker 1: gonna be Mike Rabel with a great game plan going
Speaker 1: into Dallas and winning on the road last year, or
Speaker 1: playing a game way above their head and beating somebody,
Speaker 1: or on the other hand, just laying an egg like
Speaker 1: they did against Jacksonville. They're so hard to figure out.
Speaker 1: So to me, they're both crazy teams. I'm out, all right,
Speaker 1: I'm out. I'm out, and he's out for the show
Speaker 1: as well. Thank you to everybody really appreciated, not only Todd,
Speaker 1: wished him and Mike Palm of course the staples of
Speaker 1: the show. Thank you gentlemen for taking the time, but
Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi a mensh. Thank you for doing this man,
Speaker 1: I appreciate it is my pleasure, my pleasure. I enjoyed
Speaker 1: the company. Thank you. I learned a lot to the
Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you, and hopefully we can get you
Speaker 1: back here at some point later in the season. Nikkil Alexander,
Speaker 1: sorry for not knowing the format of my own show.
Speaker 1: Thank god Todd was here. Good luck with all your
Speaker 1: bets this weekend of the Nashville Footballers. On both back
Speaker 1: that battle, but both