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Speaker 1: To our question of the day two pmize point to

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Speaker 1: a pause for central banks. It looks like the market

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Speaker 1: is telling us, yes, you're seeing a rally into the

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Speaker 1: bond market, yield drop like a stone, and the dollar

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Speaker 1: coming off its highs, and you have a move into

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Speaker 1: the equity market. So let's get the broader take Ralph

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Speaker 1: shlast nine Evercore chairman Emeritith joins me now here on set.

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Speaker 2: Ralph, So good to see you. Thanks for coming in.

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you as well.

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Speaker 2: So what do you think does the data point to

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Speaker 2: a pause right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think there's been encouraging data both on the

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Speaker 4: inflation front and on the growth side. I don't think

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Speaker 4: it will really affect what Pal says on Friday. I

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Speaker 4: think what's probably going to distinguish him is what he

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Speaker 4: doesn't say. I think he's not going to say mission accomplished.

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Speaker 4: And I don't think he's going to be pawkish either.

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Speaker 4: So I think he's just gonna middle right down the middle.

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Speaker 4: If there were a fairway in Jackson Hole, that's where

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Speaker 4: he'd be.

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Speaker 5: Okay, I like big right down the middle of the fairway.

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Speaker 5: It never happens, but sounds like a really nice idea.

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Speaker 5: What does that mean for the markets, Ralph, the markets

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Speaker 5: are anticipating to get cuts next year. Do you think

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Speaker 5: he get those cuts? Is he gonna disabuse this of

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Speaker 5: the idea that we do get those cuts.

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Speaker 4: I think the one thing that he could say that

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Speaker 4: would affect the markets is not necessarily it is longer.

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Speaker 4: I do think we're gonna have a period of higher

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Speaker 4: rates for longer. I don't think that's priced in the

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Speaker 4: market yet. If he chooses to say that, that will

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Speaker 4: have a negative effect on the markets, But the market

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Speaker 4: clearly is not anticipating that.

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Speaker 1: What is higher for longer? I mean Bill Dudley had

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Speaker 1: a piece out earlier this week. He was looking at

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Speaker 1: the ten But when you wrap in that fiscal deficits

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Speaker 1: term premium, you're looking at substantially four point five percent

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Speaker 1: higher yields.

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Speaker 2: What do you think we're going.

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Speaker 3: To start with.

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Speaker 4: I think we're going to see I don't believe the

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Speaker 4: Fed is going to cut in the first half of

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Speaker 4: next year, and I think the economy still has a

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Speaker 4: fair amount of strength. And because they use the word

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Speaker 4: transitory and got themselves into a deep hole, I think

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Speaker 4: they're going to be very careful not to declare mission

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Speaker 4: accomplished too quickly, and I think they're prepared to take

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Speaker 4: the risk of a mild recession to do that to

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Speaker 4: do that.

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Speaker 5: Well, are we going back though to what we had

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Speaker 5: before the pandemic? Are super low rates or a rate's

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Speaker 5: going to be more normal for the last twenty thirty

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Speaker 5: years over the next ten years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think the thing that if you step back a little,

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Speaker 4: but we went through a forty year period of time

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Speaker 4: where rates were generally declining longer rates and they got

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Speaker 4: extraordinarily low. I think that period of time has passed.

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Speaker 2: The bond ball dead, the.

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Speaker 3: Bond bull is.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, if you know, there'll be mini bulls,

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Speaker 4: but there's not going to be that incredible systemic, long

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Speaker 4: term grinding lower of interest rates. And I think that,

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Speaker 4: you know, the all of risk assets and all of

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Speaker 4: investments have benefited from that. So we've been in the

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Speaker 4: last forty years have kind of been the golden age

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Speaker 4: of investing, and I don't think we're going to have

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Speaker 4: that for the next ten or twenty years.

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Speaker 1: So even Guy wasn't around before forty years ago.

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Speaker 2: He was around, but like he.

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Speaker 3: Was, he was gleam in his mother's eye.

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Speaker 2: He was gleaming all right, for sure.

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Speaker 1: But so I guess for those of us who weren't around, then,

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Speaker 1: how do you make returns? Like what's a good investment strategy?

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Speaker 1: Because it feels like in some ways we're going to

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Speaker 1: be very over risked.

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Speaker 3: I think, yeah, the.

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Speaker 4: Biggest it's hard. It's going to be harder to earn returns.

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Speaker 3: You know. It's interesting.

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Speaker 4: I had this discussion with Larry Summers several years ago,

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Speaker 4: and he was actually talking about the White House staff

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Speaker 4: that I served on under President Carter. And there were

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Speaker 4: a lot of very successful people on that staff. President

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Speaker 4: Company not included, but people like David Rubinstein and Frank Rains,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. And you know, he said, how

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Speaker 4: did that happen? And I said, well, you know, I

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Speaker 4: think if you look at it, we were all incredibly

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Speaker 4: lucky to be in the prime of our work lives

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Speaker 4: in the greatest period of broad wealth creation fueled by.

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Speaker 3: Rally and risk.

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Speaker 4: Assets in the history of the country. And so I

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Speaker 4: think the way to make money in the next couple

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Speaker 4: of decades is probably is going to be inequities.

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Speaker 3: But I personally am way.

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Speaker 4: Overweighted in private equity, because I think they're private equity

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Speaker 4: owners are more aggressive about addressing strategic or human shortcomings

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Speaker 4: in businesses than public companies are.

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Speaker 5: What do you think about private credit? What do you

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Speaker 5: do You think private equity needs to make an adjustment

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Speaker 5: to the higher rates era that we're potentially going to

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Speaker 5: be going into. How far through that process do you

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Speaker 5: think we are? They seem to be struggling a little

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Speaker 5: bit in certain areas. There's a lot of portfolio companies

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Speaker 5: out there as well that are going to struggle to

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Speaker 5: make that adjustment as well. Do you think private equity

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Speaker 5: is going to have a tough few years and then

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Speaker 5: go back on track or do you think it's still

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Speaker 5: on track right now.

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Speaker 4: I think that there's definitely an adjustment going on right now,

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Speaker 4: and I think if you were a fly on the

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Speaker 4: wall at any large private equity firm, the discussion would

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Speaker 4: center around we've got to get more liquidity for our investors,

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Speaker 4: We've got to sell things, and the challenges that there's

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Speaker 4: still a gap fueled by somewhat weaker multiples and by

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Speaker 4: higher cost financing between what sellers would like to get

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Speaker 4: for their companies and what buyers are prepared to pay

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Speaker 4: for them.

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Speaker 1: So I appreciate that your few decade view is different

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Speaker 1: than what we're.

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Speaker 2: Going to see over the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: But do you think we're going to get into some

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Speaker 1: kind of distressed debt cycle or with inflation getting stickier?

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Speaker 2: Is it all different?

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Speaker 4: It's hard to imagine that are not going to see

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Speaker 4: something some stress. Certainly we're going to see stress in

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Speaker 4: the office commercial real estate debt market, yeah, which is

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Speaker 4: a highly levered asset. Uh And I think you know

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Speaker 4: there are many companies that have pretty levered balance sheets.

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Speaker 4: Now offsetting that is the fact that you've got very

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Speaker 4: forgiving capital structures. You know, the whole covenant light structure

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Speaker 4: means that the the day of reckoning is manyana, manyana, manyana.

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Speaker 3: But ultimately it happens.

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Speaker 5: Graph you go to any Ai tucked in that pool

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Speaker 5: filio as well.

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Speaker 4: I'm not smart enough artificially or otherwise.

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Speaker 1: So you feel like the Namdia hype is hype or

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Speaker 1: real or you just don't know.

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Speaker 4: It's a real thing, no question about it. But I think,

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Speaker 4: unlike you know in the video, it may very.

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Speaker 3: Well be the exception.

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Speaker 4: But first of all, I can't own any individual stocks

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Speaker 4: because of my wife's job.

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Speaker 2: So understood.

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Speaker 3: So I own indexes that thing in the UK. That's it. Yes,

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Speaker 3: she beats me up in the garden.

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Speaker 4: But I think, you know, the interesting thing about AI

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Speaker 4: is that, unlike the Internet, where you have these incredibly

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Speaker 4: powerful companies that were created, you know, the so called

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Speaker 4: Magnificent seven, I think the impact of AI is going

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Speaker 4: to be much broadly, more broadly distributed in already existing companies.

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Speaker 4: So it's going to affect every business just like the

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Speaker 4: Internet did. But it's not clear to me that there,

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Speaker 4: you know, other than the chip, that they're going to

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Speaker 4: be massive, you know, earth changing companies created as a

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Speaker 4: result of AI.

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Speaker 5: In terms of what do you do there? The equity story,

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Speaker 5: I think is fascinating.

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Speaker 3: Equities.

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Speaker 5: To what extent do you think equities are fair value? Now?

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Speaker 5: Do they have some? If you why would I if

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Speaker 5: I'm in a five percent money market fund, Ralph, should

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Speaker 5: I be coming out of that money market fund now

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Speaker 5: and investing elsewhere? Or do you think the period of

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Speaker 5: uncertainty you've kind of described a little bit, you should

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Speaker 5: wait for that to work its way through, for the

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Speaker 5: clouds to clear, for the uncertainty to maybe sort of

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Speaker 5: dissipate a bit. This year has been this year, it's

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Speaker 5: been narrative after narrative after narrative, and that strikes me

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Speaker 5: as being a signal of a market that is that

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Speaker 5: is at a pivot point and the direction of travel

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Speaker 5: isn't as clear as maybe we would like it to be.

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Speaker 3: I certainly am of that view.

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Speaker 4: What I don't have in index funds, I have in cash,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of cash. So and I think there

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Speaker 4: may be a bit of a head fake going on

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Speaker 4: right now in the economy because you had, as a

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Speaker 4: result of the pandemic, massive, massive stimulus in this country,

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Speaker 4: and you know, well beyond what people could actually spend,

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Speaker 4: So you had this incredible build up of excess savings

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Speaker 4: which is now being spent down, and I think is

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Speaker 4: kind of masking a little bit the bite of the

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Speaker 4: tightened monetary policy. When that runs out, and I think

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Speaker 4: we're within months of running out, I think you're going

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Speaker 4: to see the bite of monetary policy, which has delays

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Speaker 4: in any case, and I think we still have this

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Speaker 4: sugar high from the pandemic stimulus that is masking what

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Speaker 4: will likely be some weakness in the economy.

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Speaker 1: Kind of pushes me out to mid twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: which incidentally is when we're going to see the presidential

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Speaker 1: race really get underway.

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Speaker 2: Do you think it's going to be Trump and Biden again?

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Speaker 4: It certainly looks that way today, although one could certainly

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Speaker 4: make arguments for each of them not being there. But

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Speaker 4: Biden is clearly running. I think he's in good health

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Speaker 4: mentally and physically and has every intention of running, and

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Speaker 4: I think he genuinely believes that if Trump is the opponent,

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Speaker 4: he's the best qualified to take on former President Trump.

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Speaker 4: The Republican primaries are stacked very much in Trump's favor,

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Speaker 4: of seventeen primaries that are winner take all, and with

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Speaker 4: twelve opponents, you know, you can get an awful lot

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Speaker 4: of delegates with a plurality of votes in the primaries.

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Speaker 5: Do you think the President's doing a good job right now?

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Speaker 5: Do you think is economic policies are the right one?

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Speaker 5: The US economy seems to be supported on federal spending

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Speaker 5: right now, and I'm wondering whether you think Biden no

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Speaker 5: mix is the way forward.

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Speaker 4: I think the president has actually had an incredibly productive

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Speaker 4: two and a half years. You know, the recovery plan

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Speaker 4: from the pandemic the Infrastructure Plan, the Chips Act. You know,

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Speaker 4: these are all pretty remarkable bipartisan accomplishments. I think the

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Speaker 4: rallying the world in support of the Ukraine has been

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Speaker 4: a also a pretty remarkable accomplishments.

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Speaker 1: Know that all of that contributed to inflation, maybe more

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Speaker 1: structural inflation.

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Speaker 4: Definitely, the last it wasn't a dollop, it was a

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Speaker 4: wave of stimulus, definitely made a contribution to that.

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Speaker 5: Ralph, you mentioned earlier that you served in the Cultural Administration,

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Speaker 5: and you were there with some of the prices in

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Speaker 5: the best. When the time comes, how should how should

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Speaker 5: we remember President Causa?

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Speaker 4: I think President Carter will be remembered as by far

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Speaker 4: our best ex president, and that's not He's a remarkably

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Speaker 4: high integrity, high quality, intelligent man. Honestly, having observed him

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Speaker 4: for four years, he didn't really like politics. It's hard

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Speaker 4: to be a great resident when you don't like politics.

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Speaker 4: You can trast him with the president who followed him,

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Speaker 4: Ronald Reagan, who happens to have politics different from mine,

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Speaker 4: but I think was an incredibly effective president. I wouldn't

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Speaker 4: say that about President Carter, but he's been a remarkable

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Speaker 4: ex president. His charitable activities, his involvement globally in free

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Speaker 4: and fair elections, you know, going out and building houses

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Speaker 4: for happit at that for humanity, you know, two years

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Speaker 4: ago when he was ninety six, I mean pretty remarkable.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want to be doing that when I'm

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Speaker 2: ninety six, I'm going.

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Speaker 3: To be I'm not sure I could do that at.

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Speaker 2: My age now or my age totally fair.

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Speaker 4: I'm afraid I would hammer my finger rather than the nail.

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Speaker 2: And then you really get yelled at in the garden

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Speaker 2: fire life. There would definitely that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we're all waiting for the next series of the Diplomats, Ralph.

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Speaker 5: I hear you're a Knicks fans, so you probably don't

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Speaker 5: have a beyond this. The Yankees losing nine in a row.

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Speaker 5: Is that something that warms your hearts? Or are you

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Speaker 5: you can still concerned?

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Speaker 3: In New York City.

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Speaker 4: I'm a born and bred Philadelphia and so I root

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Speaker 4: for every Philadelphia team, except in basketball, where I root

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Speaker 4: for the Knicks. Because I'm an incredible I have every

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Speaker 4: man's dream. I have every member of my family as

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Speaker 4: a rabid fan of my favorite sports, so we all

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Speaker 4: coalesced around the next.

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Speaker 3: Okay, but I get no.

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Speaker 4: If I had the beef in Philadelphia for a New

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Speaker 4: York team, it would be the Yankees.

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Speaker 3: So I'm disappointed.

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Speaker 5: Okay, Ralph, I hear you gonna be in London, so

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Speaker 5: we'll see you then. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 3: I look forward to it. Guy,