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Speaker 1: Two, three rights down the middle of the feelings.

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Speaker 2: He loves football.

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Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line.

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Speaker 2: How about that? That is the ultimate kabash and we

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Speaker 2: are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action Network NFL podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is the Divisional Round Friday Show. I am Matthew Friedman,

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Speaker 1: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and joining me

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Speaker 1: to break down this weekend's action is Chris Raybon, a

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Speaker 1: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network and a

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Speaker 1: co host of All Take That Bets on ESPN Plus.

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Speaker 1: You can follow him in the Action Network app at

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon. Chris, you will be happy to learn that

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Speaker 1: last week for all of my against the spread picks,

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Speaker 1: I went four to oh, but on my picks for

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Speaker 1: the show, I went one and three. So what a

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Speaker 1: life I lead? You went two and two. I need

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Speaker 1: to ways for you from wild Card weekend.

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Speaker 3: I think that you know, we you know, it's kind

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Speaker 3: of it seems like a cliche almost, but we saw

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Speaker 3: these young quarterbacks in their first playoffs starts struggle and

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Speaker 3: just kind of it look almost like I mean Deshaun

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Speaker 3: Watson and he was just missing throws that you don't

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Speaker 3: usually see him missed then you saw Lamar Jackson take

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Speaker 3: essentially three and a half quarters to get warmed up.

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Speaker 3: You know, Trubisky, I mean, he had a pretty solid game,

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Speaker 3: but I mean the Bears only ended up scoring sixteen points,

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Speaker 3: and it seemed like at times Matt Naggy didn't want to,

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Speaker 3: you know, allow Trubisky to kind of put the hammer

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Speaker 3: down and be as.

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Speaker 2: Aggressive as maybe they could have been.

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Speaker 3: So, you know, it is kind of one of those

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Speaker 3: things where we hear about it and it seems more

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Speaker 3: like a cliche, but the numbers do back it up.

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Speaker 3: Since two thousand and two, first time starters in the

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Speaker 3: playoffs have gone not only thirteen and thirty straight up,

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Speaker 3: but also eleven and thirty one against the spread, and

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Speaker 3: that's according to bet Labs. And actually wasn't aware of that,

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Speaker 3: you know, that number coming into last week, which I

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Speaker 3: probably would have gone a little easier on Watson, but

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Speaker 3: you know that that was my main takeaway.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, scarily enough, that number is applicable to Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: So something we might talk about a little bit in

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Speaker 1: our upcoming segment on the Wednesday Show with Peter Jenny

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Speaker 1: and Shawan Corner and Ian hardtz We looked at the

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Speaker 1: four games slate through a DFS perspective. For this episode,

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Speaker 1: We're going to break down each game this weekend, and

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Speaker 1: we'll also look at the primetime showdown slates for Saturday

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Speaker 1: and Sunday. As you are listening to the show, please

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Speaker 1: rate and review the Action Network NFL podcast on iTunes, Subscribe, unsubscribe,

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Speaker 1: and resubscribe, and for all of our written content, go

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network and Fantasy Labs. You can get

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Speaker 1: our weekly fantasy rankings at actionnetwork dot com slash fantasy.

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Speaker 1: All right, Chris, let's talk about the first game of

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Speaker 1: the divisional round. And this is going to be, I

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Speaker 1: think an exciting, an exciting game. We had the Colts

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Speaker 1: at the Chiefs. The Chiefs favor by five and a

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Speaker 1: half a fifty seven point over under. The spread is

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Speaker 1: up from five, the total is up from fifty six.

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Speaker 1: After losing five of their first six games, the Colts

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Speaker 1: have won ten at their last eleven, including last week's

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Speaker 1: twenty one to seven road victory over the Texans. The

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have historically struggled in the playoffs, but they are

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Speaker 1: at home. Andy Reid is coming off of a buy.

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Speaker 1: Now they have what they didn't have before. Patrick Mahomes, Chris,

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Speaker 1: what is your take on this game?

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Speaker 3: Ah Man, I mean I already see us going back

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Speaker 3: and forth on this one because looking at this outline here,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't look like you think it might be as

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Speaker 3: much of an exciting game as most because you're going

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Speaker 3: to take the under in this game, which I get

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Speaker 3: it from the standpoint of we have this trend. You know,

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Speaker 3: arrowhead unders in the Andy Reid era have been very

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Speaker 3: profitable thirty two seventeen and one, I believe it is.

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Speaker 3: That's a sixty five percent cover rate toward the under

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Speaker 3: according to bet Labs.

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Speaker 2: But you know, just looking at that.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how applicable it is because number one,

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Speaker 3: you have Kansas City's defense pretty much the worst it's

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Speaker 3: ever been in the Bob Sutton Andy Reid or. They

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Speaker 3: are twenty fourth in points allowed this season. They were

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Speaker 3: top fifteen in the previous five. We also have, you know,

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Speaker 3: Kansas City obviously being the highest scoring team they've been

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Speaker 3: in this Reed Sutton era, you know, number one in

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Speaker 3: points scored this year over thirty five a game with Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: and of course they have Mahomes as opposed to Alex Smith,

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Speaker 3: So you have a whole different type of aggression level

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Speaker 3: in this matchup than you've had in really any of

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Speaker 3: those previous you know games where that trend has been amassed.

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Speaker 3: You also, I mean even this year, I know it

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Speaker 3: was still profitable. But Kennas City faced Oakland, they beat

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Speaker 3: him thirty five three. They faced Cincinnati, they beat him

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Speaker 3: forty five ten, Arizona twenty six to fourteen, Jacksonville thirty

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Speaker 3: to fourteen. Then they faced Denver, who put up twenty three,

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Speaker 3: you know, thirty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: That's fair.

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Speaker 3: Baltimore, another pretty defensive team, ended up twenty seven to

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Speaker 3: twenty four. So against two defensive team they it still

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Speaker 3: cleared fifty. And then it did hit at least fifty

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Speaker 3: seven against San Francisco when it won thirty eight twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: and the Chargers when they lost twenty nine to twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: So I still like the over in this one, and

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Speaker 3: that's because Mahomes the key to really stopping him or

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Speaker 3: limiting him is pressure.

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Speaker 2: And I think Matt Eberfluse.

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Speaker 3: Coach defensive coordinator last week, really deserves a ton of

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Speaker 3: credit for his defensive game plan against Deshaun Watson, especially

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Speaker 3: once he realized that DeAndre Hopkins.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't at full strength.

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Speaker 3: I think they just came out with a ton of

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Speaker 3: cover two looks, realizing that with Hopkins not at full

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Speaker 3: strength and you have Vincent Smith doesn't really get targeted much,

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Speaker 3: especially after he screwed up that first deet ball of

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Speaker 3: the game.

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Speaker 2: They just let QT beat them underneath.

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Speaker 3: And you know Watson didn't really do anything of note

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Speaker 3: against that cover too. But Patrick Mahomes, I think Evan

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Speaker 3: Silva tweeted it out, has destroyed zone coverage this year

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Speaker 3: fourteen zero touchdown interception ratio, So I don't think it's

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Speaker 3: going to be that simple to just game plan against him.

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Speaker 3: And the Coats are twenty ninth and adjustine zach rate,

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Speaker 3: so just not likely to get a lot of pressure

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Speaker 3: on Mahomes and really get him off of his game.

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Speaker 3: And on the other side of the ball, I think

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Speaker 3: I know the coach scoring only twenty one points last week,

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Speaker 3: none in the second half, but I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of that was also somewhat at least somewhat due to

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Speaker 3: game planning, because you know, the Texas do have a

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Speaker 3: top three run defense and Marla Mack was able to

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Speaker 3: run all over them shouts to Sean Corner, who had

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Speaker 3: you know, mac as the top value for the most

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Speaker 3: yardage prop last week, which ended up hitting at like

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Speaker 3: nine to one, I believe, But I think that was

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Speaker 3: you know, once they saw Watson wasn't really doing much

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Speaker 3: against that defense, they decided.

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Speaker 2: To just run the ball a little more than they

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Speaker 2: usually would.

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Speaker 3: I don't I think there'd be a lot more aggressive

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Speaker 3: in Arrowhead knowing that they're gonna need to probably score

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Speaker 3: five times and at probably four touchdowns to at least

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Speaker 3: to knock off these Chiefs. And so I just have

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Speaker 3: a lot of respect for both of these quarterbacks on

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Speaker 3: both of these passing games. I don't think the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: are really well equipped to stop the coach in any

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Speaker 3: particular way. I mean, Chiefs are not a good team

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Speaker 3: at defending the run. So you know, Marlon Mack's emergence

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Speaker 3: has really come at the right time for them. You know,

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Speaker 3: they even with Eric barryback, they haven't really been great

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Speaker 3: against tight end. So Ebron is still going to be

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Speaker 3: an issue. The back end isn't great either. You have

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Speaker 3: to worry about t Y Hilton dontrell en Mins starting to.

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Speaker 2: To be reliable.

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Speaker 3: If not, you know, not explosive, but he's still a

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Speaker 3: reliable guy in there. So I mean, I just wipe

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Speaker 3: both of these offenses in this game. I'm a little

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Speaker 3: worried about taking the Colts as the dog here because

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Speaker 3: the spread is at five five and a half, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's deliberate because I'm not sure that this

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Speaker 3: game is going to be a game where many field

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Speaker 3: goals are kicked, and so, you know, if the Coats

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Speaker 3: end up losing the game, I think there is a

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Speaker 3: good likelihood that, you know, even though you know maybe

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Speaker 3: there is value, you know, just if you kind of

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Speaker 3: looked at the numbers on the Coats or whatever or not,

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Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance that if they lose,

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Speaker 3: it's by six or more. And so I'm just going

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Speaker 3: to go with this over fifty seven. I think that

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Speaker 3: it's it's it's highly unlikely to me that either of

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Speaker 3: these teams doesn't score four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: In my eyes, m I think it is likely that

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Speaker 1: score four touchdowns. I think, yeah, I mean, I understand

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Speaker 1: what you're saying, but I feel like the strength of

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Speaker 1: this Andy Reid era under it's not unquestioned into the

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen season, but it still persists, and you you

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Speaker 1: definitely highlighted some good points that they've played some pretty

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Speaker 1: unsaved teams at Arrowhead, and that could account for the

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Speaker 1: fact that opponents haven't done well there, but teams against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs when the Chiefs are on the road, those

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Speaker 1: teams have scored thirty four points six points per game

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Speaker 1: against them. In Arrowhead, they have scored eighteen points per game. Now,

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Speaker 1: granted that is like a huge discrepancy, but it is

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Speaker 1: true that like within the Andy Reid era, they have

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Speaker 1: held opponents to more than six points fewer scored at

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Speaker 1: Arrowhead relative to playing at home against the Chiefs. So

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Speaker 1: I think there is still something to this Arrowhead under

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Speaker 1: And also I think the bigger part of this is

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Speaker 1: that you have within this season, for whatever reason, it

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Speaker 1: is the Chiefs scoring thirty eight point twenty five points

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Speaker 1: on the road and thirty two point three eight points

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Speaker 1: at Arrowhead. And you can look at it on a

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Speaker 1: per drive basis, three point twenty five points per drive

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Speaker 1: on the road, three point one to one points per

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Speaker 1: drive at home. They're just they haven't exhibited the I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't even say the ability to score points at home,

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Speaker 1: because they're still scoring a lot of points at home,

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Speaker 1: but they haven't maybe needed to score as many points

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Speaker 1: at home on a per drive basis. They just haven't

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Speaker 1: been as efficient. Mahomes hasn't been throwing as many yards

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Speaker 1: as many touchdowns at home. They just haven't been quite

200
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Speaker 1: as good at Arrowhead. And then the fact that you

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Speaker 1: have this postseason trend, and granted it's like relatively small sample,

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Speaker 1: but like outdoor games in the postseason are like twenty

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Speaker 1: nine to ten to the under, Like that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: strong trend. And then I think when you add on

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Speaker 1: top of that this Arrowhead under trend and Mahomes playing

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Speaker 1: in his first postseason game, so maybe he struggles a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Maybe he's just not quite as smooth. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. If I had to pick a side, I

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Speaker 1: would go Kansas City, and I did bet Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: I think they ultimately will win. They have a very

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Speaker 1: good on defense, They have a very good pass rush,

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Speaker 1: one of the best pass rushes in the league. And

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Speaker 1: I know that the Colts are good at preventing press. Sure,

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Speaker 1: they're good at getting the ball out of Andrew Luck's

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Speaker 1: hand very quickly, so that pass rush doesn't matter quite

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Speaker 1: as much. But I think it will still matter in

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Speaker 1: this game. So I think you add all of those

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Speaker 1: things together for me, that points to the under. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't be surprising if both of these teams put

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Speaker 1: up like thirty five points, that wouldn't be surprising. But

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Speaker 1: I don't know, fifty seven is a really high number

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Speaker 1: for the postseason, for an outdoor game, for a quarterback

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Speaker 1: playing in his first game. Yeah, I'm gonna take the under.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I hear you, but I think you know,

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Speaker 3: like you say, like, for whatever reason, the Chiefs haven't

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Speaker 3: scored as much at home, but I think that still

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Speaker 3: goes back to the opponents they faced. I mean, you

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Speaker 3: don't have to score a lot of points when you're

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Speaker 3: facing the Raiders putting up three and the Jaguars putting

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Speaker 3: up fourteen, and the Cardinals putting up fourteen and the

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Speaker 3: Bengals putting up ten or I mean, even though they

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Speaker 3: did score a lot.

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Speaker 2: In that game.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, on top of that, you know some

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Speaker 3: of the better you know, they did play some some

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Speaker 3: solid defenses in some of the other games they played

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Speaker 3: at home where there was more points, like the Ravens

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Speaker 3: and the Chargers and the Broncos. Those are three of

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Speaker 3: the better defenses in the league. So I just think

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Speaker 3: like in a playoff game of this magnitude, I think

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Speaker 3: both teams will come out being aggressive as far as sides.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is a little more evenly matched than

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Speaker 3: we probably think.

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Speaker 2: I'd still wean too, the Colts.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you look back since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 3: underdogs in the postseason haven't been terribly profitable, but the

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Speaker 3: one exception has been a division round Division round underdog.

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Speaker 3: Since three are twenty three and seven against the spread.

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Speaker 3: So I don't mind taking the Coats in this spot.

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Speaker 3: But again, my one worry here is that whoever wins

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Speaker 3: the game probably wins it by its touchdown, just because

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Speaker 3: I think that's how it's gonna go. But yeah, I

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Speaker 3: feel good about the over, man. I mean, it's kind

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Speaker 3: of like the Alabama Clemson thing where it seemed like,

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Speaker 3: I mean, well, depending on where you got the over

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Speaker 3: under in like it was a good vet. But in

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Speaker 3: theory it seems like this game could go under. But

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Speaker 3: I mean I could see this game being like twenty

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Speaker 3: one to fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, well I bet the over on that game.

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Speaker 1: I just think there's a pretty significantfference by the way,

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Speaker 1: where'd you get the over? What line did you get it?

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Speaker 2: I know I got the under. I was a square, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I got a one. Well I got fifty something.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I got it by the skin of my teeth.

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Speaker 1: I had fifty nine and I think it hit sixty.

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Speaker 1: So I felt very good about that one.

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Speaker 2: I will say I did.

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Speaker 3: I did make up for it because I thought, like,

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Speaker 3: this is like my first real like live betting experience.

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Speaker 3: I'm not really like a big live better maybe like

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Speaker 3: a second half line here and there, but like for

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Speaker 3: some I was just like, I don't I just like,

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Speaker 3: I don't think Alabama has it today, and I just

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Speaker 3: kept like betting on Clemson live line and it ended

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Speaker 3: up working out, so I like recouped my losses.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it was it was a square play by me.

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Speaker 1: Nice I had some Clemson future. It's not for like

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Speaker 1: any significant amount of money, but I was. I was

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Speaker 1: very excited by the way that turned out. Except the

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Speaker 1: Hunter renfro Oh. That was really embarrassing that that didn't

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Speaker 1: work out, not even close, not even all right, let's

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Speaker 1: go to these the next game here the Cowboys at

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Speaker 1: the Rams Rams favored by seven, a forty nine point

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Speaker 1: five over under. The spread is down from seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, the total is up from forty nine. Since

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Speaker 1: acquiring Amber in Week eight, the Cowboys are eight and two,

288
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Speaker 1: including their two point win last week against the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: but over that time they have a point differential of

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Speaker 1: literally zero. The Rams, meanwhile, open the season eleven and one,

291
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Speaker 1: but they close the season on a two and two

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Speaker 1: run and they have seemed to miss wide receiver Cooper

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Speaker 1: Cup down the stretch. Chris, what are you doing with

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Speaker 1: this game?

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Speaker 3: What I'm doing is I am going to switch it

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Speaker 3: up and let's kick it to you first, because I

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Speaker 3: want to hear the Cowboys fan untainted thoughts, like before

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Speaker 3: I get in your head or anything else. Just I

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Speaker 3: just want to hear your unfiltered thoughts on this game.

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Speaker 2: And then I'll tell you why I can't.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'll tell you. I like, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to admit that I've jinxed the Cowboys, but I bet

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Speaker 1: them on the spread this week. I bet them at

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. Okay, But you know, I think

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Speaker 1: if I had seen seven, I still probably would have

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Speaker 1: bet seven. And I can't really even explain why. You know,

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Speaker 1: it was in the aftermath of their you know, quote

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Speaker 1: unquote glorious win over the Seahawks, but you know, the defense,

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Speaker 1: the defense is good. I don't know, I just I

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Speaker 1: kind of have this feeling of like seven is a lot.

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Speaker 1: The Cowboys play close games. They have this eight and

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Speaker 1: two record, which I think is totally unrepresentative of who

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Speaker 1: they are, but the zero point differential kind of indicates

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Speaker 1: they are a team that plays close games. And I'm

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Speaker 1: fine with betting a team at seven and a half

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Speaker 1: that has shown a knack all season to stick in

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Speaker 1: close games. I'm fine with taking the seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean, I'm I'm actually on board with you.

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Speaker 3: I like the Cowboys in this spot. That's that's gonna

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Speaker 3: be my pick. Seven to seven and a half doesn't

321
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Speaker 3: really matter to me. Again, I think that these line

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Speaker 3: I mean, these games are especially in the Division round.

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Speaker 3: I think these lines get a little bit inflated. Even

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Speaker 3: though the underdogs did well last week. I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's kind of like all these teams had buys. These

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Speaker 3: are the real deal, and these lines are kind of

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Speaker 3: large where I think these games are still relative toss

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Speaker 3: ups for the most part. I mean, the Cowboys, you

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Speaker 3: can point to a lot of different reasons why they

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Speaker 3: match up decently.

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Speaker 2: They're right, I mean, first.

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Speaker 3: Of all, being the Cowboys, we know they're built around

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Speaker 3: Zeke and that running game, who, by the way, you

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Speaker 3: know bio accounts is probably a bit healthier at this

335
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Speaker 3: point than than than Todd Gurley, So you know, that's

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Speaker 3: an advantage for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: But the Rams ranked twenty eighth and run defense DVOA.

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Speaker 3: You know, I don't think they'll play quite to that

339
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Speaker 3: bad of a level because part of that is kind

340
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Speaker 3: of tactical, you know, conceding the run in order to

341
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Speaker 3: slow down the pass. Wade folks those an excellent job

342
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Speaker 3: of that, So I'm sure he'll devote more attention to

343
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Speaker 3: the run game being that as the Cowboys. But at

344
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Speaker 3: the same time, you have, like if you look at

345
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Speaker 3: you kind of alluded to it earlier, but Jared got

346
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Speaker 3: struggling a bit without Cooper Cup in the eight games

347
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Speaker 3: without Cup down to seven point three yards per pass attempt,

348
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Speaker 3: And if you look at Dak Prescott in his ten

349
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Speaker 3: games with Amari Cooper, Dak is up at seven to six.

350
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Speaker 3: So now you're looking at a situation where we might

351
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Speaker 3: not have what you know, we always kind of it's

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Speaker 3: kind of easy to say, oh, you know, the Rams

353
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Speaker 3: have the advantage at quarterback here, but you know it's

354
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Speaker 3: not necessarily the case, or at least you know by

355
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Speaker 3: the numbers, that hasn't been the case with the kind

356
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Speaker 3: of changes that have occurred. And then you go and

357
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Speaker 3: look at like Dak this is his third postseason start. Now,

358
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Speaker 3: this is only got second. GoF didn't play well at

359
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 3: all in his first postseason start against the shaky Falcons

360
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 3: defense at home, averaged only five point eight yards per

361
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Speaker 3: attempt in that start. You know, Dak's postseason passer ratings

362
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Speaker 3: ninety four point one, Goss' is in the high seventies.

363
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Speaker 2: So you know, it's not just a gimme for the.

364
00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 3: Rams that in the passing game either, even though you

365
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 3: know they should on they should have the advantage, at

366
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Speaker 3: least you think they would. You know, the Cowboys corners

367
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Speaker 3: A Wougia is playing well too. It's not even just

368
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 3: Byron Jones anymore so. And without Cup now you have

369
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,440
Speaker 3: to use Woods more in the slot, which you could

370
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Speaker 3: do it and it will be successful, but it's not

371
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Speaker 3: the same as having you know, that previous alignment.

372
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Speaker 2: And then on the other side, you have the Cowboys.

373
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Speaker 3: They're the number five defense and DV away against the run,

374
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Speaker 3: so you know that's big too as well. That's why

375
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Speaker 3: I do see why you might end up going with

376
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Speaker 3: the under for this game, even though it has been

377
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Speaker 3: bet up.

378
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Speaker 2: And yeah, I think it's.

379
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Speaker 3: Gonna be a bottom line, Like you said, it's gonna

380
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 3: be a competitive game. And I think the fact that

381
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Speaker 3: potentially could be a little lower scoring than we're used

382
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 3: to for a normal Rams game benefits the Cowboys because

383
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,400
Speaker 3: lower scoring games tend to more often than not benefit

384
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Speaker 3: the underdog because the superior team doesn't get as much

385
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,640
Speaker 3: of a chance to essentially show that superiority if you're

386
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 3: limiting possessions and drives in a particular ballgame. So you know,

387
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 3: it doesn't doesn't make me feel great, you know, the Cowboys,

388
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 3: you know, on the road against the Rams. You know,

389
00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:29,920
Speaker 3: we saw that the first two times Dak played where

390
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 3: in the postseason we're at home, close win, close loss

391
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,199
Speaker 3: against Green Bay back in twenty sixteen. But I think

392
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Speaker 3: that they have real a real good shot at keeping

393
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 3: this game close. Is not winning outright, It's just it's

394
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 3: Aaron Donald gonna wreck something for the Rams, is is

395
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,119
Speaker 3: Jason Garrett or his staff going to make a mistake

396
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 3: against Sean mcvay's staff that's going to like tilt the game.

397
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Speaker 2: I think those are questions that we can't answer.

398
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 3: And you know that we know that something like that

399
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 3: is going to play out every you know, every week.

400
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 3: We just don't know where it's going to be. But

401
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 3: you know, on paper, at least, I think the Cowboys

402
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,200
Speaker 3: have a great shot. And that's that's my bets, whether

403
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 3: it be seven or seven and a half.

404
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 1: Man, So I have some thoughts. So my pick for

405
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,959
Speaker 1: this is under forty nine and a half. It stems

406
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 1: from a few things, but I think the Cowboys defense

407
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: matches up fairly well against the Rams, and I think

408
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 1: the Rams defense also actually kind of matches up pretty

409
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: well against the Cowboys. So that's kind of like for

410
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 1: this game specifically. And then just like the macro picture

411
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: of like Dak, like the under is good for him,

412
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 1: the under outside of division is good for him, the

413
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 1: under on the road is good for him. So like

414
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: Dak unders outside of division on the road, that's a

415
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,640
Speaker 1: twelve and three record to the under. And I think

416
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 1: like you can look at some of the things like

417
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 1: thinking about why that would make sense, And it does

418
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 1: make sense. I know it's a sample of only fifteen games,

419
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 1: but like I feel comfortable with the logic of kind

420
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 1: of why it is that those games would play out

421
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 1: the way that they do. The thing that scares me

422
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 1: about the Cowboys specifically is Aaron Donald And you mentioned

423
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 1: like is he going to wreck something? I don't think

424
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 1: it's a question of if. I think it's just a

425
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,880
Speaker 1: question of, like what exactly is the impact of that?

426
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: Is it that he creates two fumbles? You know, is

427
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 1: it that he gets five sacks? Like exactly what is it?

428
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 1: Because I feel pretty confident that he can easily win

429
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 1: the matchup going against the center and the guard. Like

430
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in theory, they should have all pro center

431
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: Travis Frederick. Instead they have backup Joe Looney, Right, they

432
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 1: should have and it's not as if he's even all

433
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 1: that good, but Xavier sua Filo they should have him

434
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 1: at left guard. But because they decided to play him

435
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 1: in a meaningless Week seventeen game, they're putting out their

436
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 1: rookie Connor Williams, who they benched because he wasn't good. Right,

437
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 1: So you have the situation of Donald going against the

438
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: two weakest guys on that offensive line, and the Cowboys

439
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 1: are so predicated on the play of their offensive line

440
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 1: where if like there is any weakness along it and

441
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 1: it is really exploited by the defense, that is significant

442
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: to everything that they want to do. So like, that

443
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: is the one thing that really makes me nervous about

444
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 1: wanting to back the Cowboys. But you know, I'm a

445
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 1: Cowboys hater and truth at the same time, so you know,

446
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 1: I've personally backed them, but the under I do feel

447
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,119
Speaker 1: not super confident about. But I like, of all the

448
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 1: picks of all the plays related to the Cowboys, that's

449
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: the one I like the best.

450
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: So to play Devil's Advocate, I mean, you know, this

451
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 3: is going to be interesting because the one thing about

452
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: going back to the quarterbacks is that, Okay, yeah, we

453
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 3: know Donald's going to get in that backfield.

454
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 2: You know, it's kind of a Floordone conclusion.

455
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott this season under pressure eighty seven point one

456
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: passerrating ninety two touchdown to interception ratio. That passerating is

457
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 3: third best in the NFL under pressure.

458
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 2: And then if you look on the other side of

459
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 2: the ball, though, like.

460
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,480
Speaker 1: Okay, sorry, if I could just interrupt there. He also

461
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: is second in the league in sacks, so whenever he

462
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: manages to get the row off right, it's good, but

463
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 1: he's getting sacked at like a really high rate.

464
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 3: Sorry, go ahead, absolutely, And I think, but you know,

465
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: sometimes you know you're gonna have to take like the

466
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 3: problems quarterbacks usually have under pressure is that they make

467
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 3: throws that are inaccurate because it's just difficult to make

468
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 3: accurate throws under pressure.

469
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:17,920
Speaker 2: So I mean, like in this.

470
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 3: Type of game, with the Cowboys having a better defense

471
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 3: than then, you know, we've remembered them having pretty much

472
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 3: any at any other point, like you could afford to

473
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 3: take sacks if it's not going to necessarily like if

474
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 3: it's not going to turn them all over and give

475
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: the Rams easy points, because I think the Dallas defense

476
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 3: does match up fairly well. But my thing is that

477
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 3: if this does come down to these quarterbacks like making

478
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: throws under pressure, you know, GoF is no short thing either.

479
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: I mean, he's he He has a forty two point

480
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: three percent completion rate under pressure this year, five five

481
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 3: touchdown the interception ratio, and his fifty nine to powty

482
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 3: passer rating ranks twenty ninth in the league. So like

483
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 3: if the Cowboys, you like, they probably want that to

484
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 3: take sacks under pressure because I think they feel like,

485
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 3: you know, if they can, if they can just play

486
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 3: solid defense against GoF I mean, I don't think it's

487
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 3: a gimme. And that's why I kind of like this

488
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 3: the Cowboys plus seven plus seven and a half because

489
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 3: I think this game, even though you don't think of

490
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 3: the Rams as one of those teams that was going

491
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 3: to get into these you know, closer lollc lower scoring games,

492
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 3: I think as opposed to like the Colts, chief Like,

493
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 3: this is a game where Sean McBay might say, hey,

494
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: we got to settle for a field goal here, like

495
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 3: we might not go for it on like a fourth

496
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 3: and one or fourth and two, even though you know

497
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 3: that's usually what you'd expect him to do. So you know,

498
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 3: I think it's no short thing. I think it's a awsoup. Honestly,

499
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 3: I think the Cowboys have a great chance in this game.

500
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 1: One more thought you mentioned, and this goes to your

501
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: point about Dallas and you mentioned this earlier too, about

502
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: Colts versus the Chiefs. In the Divisional round, underdogs have

503
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: been profitable, and I think that makes sense, whereas it

504
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: wouldn't make as much since in the wildcard round or

505
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: even the next round. I think people overvalue home field advantage,

506
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: but they really overvalue the buye because it's not a

507
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: true buye. It's a week of rest with a normal

508
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 1: week of game plan preparation because like in a normal

509
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 1: buy during the regular season, you know who you are

510
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 1: playing in two weeks. Here, like the other team doesn't

511
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: really have the opportunity to game plan that entire time.

512
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: They can work on what they want to do, but

513
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: they don't really have the like they don't have the

514
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: knowledge of knowing for sure who they're going to be

515
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: playing in two weeks, you know what I mean. So

516
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: I think people sort of like think of it, Oh,

517
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 1: they have the buy, and it's like, well, they do,

518
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: but it's not the normal buy, Like you shouldn't count

519
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: it the way that you would count a normal buy

520
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: during the regular season.

521
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: And you know you're spot on because I actually did

522
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: research this in bet Labs earlier in the week and

523
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: I found out that this would actually go right into

524
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 3: your point because postseason underdogs in the division around against

525
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: the number two seed cover fifty six percent of the time,

526
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 3: which you know is pretty good. But against the number

527
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 3: one seed, those underdogs cover sixty nine percent of the

528
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 3: time since two thousand and three. So it's like people

529
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: are overvaluing you know, the number one seed plus to

530
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: buy even more than you know.

531
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, that's how it goes.

532
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 3: And I think it's there's always going to be this

533
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: kind of public perception at play, and that's that's kind

534
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 3: of a big thing I've learned here, you know, in

535
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: my first year at Action Network is that I think

536
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 3: most of us, you know, the background I was from,

537
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 3: you know, understood how to handicap games for the most part,

538
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: but finding out that, you know, a lot of the value,

539
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 3: a lot of betting value does come from, you know,

540
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 3: simply market perception. And when you find and you look

541
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 3: at some of these trends, they end up hitting and

542
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 3: being a lot more predictive at times than than just

543
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 3: you know, the simple handicapping of the game and trying

544
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 3: to predict the score or whatever or not.

545
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 2: So I'm definitely with you there.

546
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 1: All right, So right after this, we're going to talk

547
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: about the Saturday primetime slate for DFS. But first we're

548
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: going to hear from Josh Applebaum talk about the game

549
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: that the wise guys are betting this week.

550
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 4: The money Talks and action apple Bomb is all ears.

551
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 4: This is the Sharp Report.

552
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 5: NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. We are traveling to Arrowhead Stadium

553
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 5: for a showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas

554
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 5: City Chiefs. This game opened at Kansas City as a

555
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 5: six point home favorite. A slight majority of betters are

556
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 5: on Indianapolis Colts grabbing the points to the tune of

557
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 5: fifty seven percent.

558
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 1: Of spread bets.

559
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 5: However, the Colts are also getting a massive majority of dollars,

560
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 5: currently seventy percent of spread dollars. This low BET's higher

561
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 5: dollars discrepancy is a sign that the bigger sharper wagers

562
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 5: are grabbing the points here with the Colts. This line

563
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 5: opened at six and it's fallen all the way down

564
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,919
Speaker 5: to five or five and a half across the market. Typically,

565
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 5: fifty seven percent of bets might move the juice a

566
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 5: little bit, but a full half point or full point

567
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 5: line move is indication of bigger money behind that bet

568
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 5: moving that line. The Colts are also in a very

569
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 5: profitable historical spot so far since two thousand and three,

570
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 5: underdogs in the divisional round playoffs are thirty seven and

571
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 5: twenty one against the spread sixty four percent. This is

572
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 5: the best time to bet on underdogs. Also, you have

573
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 5: a great trend on fading teams that are coming off

574
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 5: of buy During the regular season, teams off of buye

575
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 5: do very well historically. You have more time to prepare,

576
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 5: you have more time to game plan, you have more

577
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 5: time to rest and rehab injuries. However, the conventional wisdom

578
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 5: would think that it would roll over to the playoffs,

579
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 5: but actually it does not. Since two thousand and three,

580
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 5: teams that are coming off a bye have not performed

581
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,479
Speaker 5: well against the spread in the divisional round. These teams,

582
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 5: if you had faded them, would have been fifty six

583
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 5: point two percent. So basically, teams in the situation of

584
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 5: Kansas City coming off a bye have only gone thirty

585
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 5: nine to fifty against the spread forty three point eight percent,

586
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 5: losing over thirteen units. So while the public is somewhat undecided,

587
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 5: leaning slightly to the Colts, the wise guys are betting

588
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 5: on Captain Andrew Luck to bring them to Green Dot

589
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 5: City Saturday afternoon.

590
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: All right, that was Josh be sure to check out

591
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: his article The Sharp Report on the Action Network. All right,

592
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about this Saturday night primetime slate.

593
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the way to start is probably

594
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 1: looking at running backs. Here, the two running backs in

595
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: this game, or the two primary running backs in the game,

596
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott. These are the guys who are

597
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: at the top of our rankings at actionnetwork dot com

598
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: slash based to see what are you doing with this

599
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: slate and where are you starting?

600
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 3: I think you know, you start out with let's see,

601
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: you have Zeke and you have Girley, and I still

602
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: go Zeke over Girly. I would try to because you

603
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 3: want Goff and you want Prescott in there as well,

604
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 3: and so I think you do end up kind of

605
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 3: choosing between one of those running backs.

606
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 2: I like Zeke as my captain.

607
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 3: I think he's like the the easiest, the most sure

608
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: bet on the slate. I think he's the most likely

609
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 3: player to give you what you need out of that slot.

610
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 3: So that's how I kind of start my lineups. Definitely

611
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 3: want Goff in there, even even though he's been struggling.

612
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: Lately without Cup.

613
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 3: But you actually can get Zeke go Gurly Dak into

614
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 3: your DK Showdown lineup. It's just that you're only going

615
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 3: to have thirty nine hundred salary dollars remaining, which makes

616
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: it kind of tough.

617
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: But I think especially if you're playing like a cash game.

618
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 3: I think you just kind of bite the bullet there

619
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 3: because those four players and having like a Zeke in

620
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 3: the captain spot, I think it's so crucial that, you know,

621
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: this has kind of been what I've been doing all

622
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 3: year in cash games and Showdown is just you know,

623
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: jamming in the top quarterbacks and the top two running

624
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 3: backs if possible, especially when they're like feature backs, and

625
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 3: just punt in the last two. And I think you

626
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 3: can do that because you have Gerald Everett and then

627
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 3: you essentially just have to punt the last spot.

628
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: And you can you go with like.

629
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: Tyler Higbee who hasn't been running as many routes because

630
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 3: now you but he might run a little more now

631
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: that with Gurly back, because it's just it changes how

632
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 3: they we're going to use ever as well. And then

633
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: you have Noah Brown who's been surprisingly at least for me,

634
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: getting a few more targets than I think we thought

635
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 3: he would get and now you have Alan Hearns out.

636
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 3: So I mean he got four targets against the Seahawks,

637
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 3: only caught one for six yards, So I mean maybe

638
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: they scale him back.

639
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: But as a punt I think.

640
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 3: You're fine with Brown in that last spot because he

641
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 3: could catch a touchdown for all we know.

642
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: So I think you just kind of do it out.

643
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 2: That's the way I would attack it. Anyways. That's how

644
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: I'm going about cash games.

645
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: Okay, So we just talked about the DFS slate for

646
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: the primetime game on Saturday. Next We're going to hit

647
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: these Sunday games right after we checking with John Ewen

648
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: for trend based sports betting insights.

649
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 4: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

650
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 4: trend of the week.

651
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 6: Tom Brady is a five time Super Bowl champ and

652
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 6: future Hall of Famer, but like all quarterbacks, TV twelve

653
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 6: struggles win pressuring. This season, Brady had a quarterback rating

654
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 6: of one hundred and five point three when he didn't

655
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 6: get hit and seventy one point two when he was

656
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 6: under duress. The key to covering against the Patriots is

657
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,239
Speaker 6: pressuring Brady. In games that Brady has been sacked one

658
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 6: or fewer times. New England has gone ninety six forty

659
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 6: six and two. That's a sixty eight percent win rate

660
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 6: against the spread. But in games that Brady gets sacked

661
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 6: three or more times, the Pats ats record drops to

662
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 6: thirty nine forty three and four against the spread. The

663
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 6: Charger sacked Lamar Jackson seven times last week. Joey Bosa

664
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 6: and Melvin Ingram are two of the best pass rushers

665
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 6: in the week, and LA's defense ranks in the top

666
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 6: ten in rushing and passing dv Away on Sunday, the

667
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 6: Chargers are going to hit Brady and cover, So take

668
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 6: the four points with LA and go right to the

669
00:29:59,240 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 6: ticket window.

670
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: Right that was John. Be sure to check out his

671
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: sports betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris.

672
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 1: Let's talk about these games on Sunday. The first one

673
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: Chargers at Patriots. The Patriots favored by four a forty

674
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: five point five over under. The spread is down from

675
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: four and a half, the total is down from forty

676
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: seven with reports that there could be three to five

677
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: inches of snow at game time. Obviously, the weather is

678
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: in flux. People need to be sure to check that

679
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: out as game time approaches. Last week, the Chargers avenged

680
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: through Week sixteen, lost by beating the Ravens at Baltimore.

681
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: After starting one and two, the Chargers have gone on

682
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: a twelve and two run. They actually have a better

683
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 1: record than the Patriots, who really, at no point this

684
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: year have looked like one of the best teams in

685
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: the league. But they have Brady, they have Belichick, they

686
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: maybe have a healthy enough Gronk and Edelman. They are

687
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: at home, they are coming off of the buy, and

688
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: they are just two games away from the super Bowl.

689
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: Like we've been here before. What are you doing with

690
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: this game?

691
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 2: I mean, man?

692
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 3: Like the Patriots, not only are they two games away

693
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 3: from Super Bowl, but they have advanced to the passed

694
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 3: the Division round to the conference championship each of the

695
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: last seven seasons. So if they were to drop this game,

696
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 3: this would be kind of new territory for them that

697
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 3: we haven't seen in quite some time. I think the

698
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: Chargers are in good position here, though, because Number one

699
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 3: the Patriots.

700
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: Weakness this season has been run defense.

701
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: They're fourteenth to get in past DVA on defense, nineteenth

702
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 3: against the run.

703
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: But that doesn't even really tell the whole story, because.

704
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: You know, you know, a lot of there's always this

705
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 3: kind of conversation about, oh, you know, running is kind

706
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: of a corollary of winning and being up waiting games.

707
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: And that's certainly true.

708
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 3: And you when you look at their the Patriots and

709
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 3: their five losses, they gave up one hundred and fifty

710
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 3: two yards per game on the ground, you think, okay, well,

711
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 3: maybe that's just kind.

712
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 2: Of a game script thing.

713
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: But even if you look at just the first half

714
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 3: of those games, like you could see that New England's

715
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 3: run defense has really gotten it in trouble. So in

716
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: their loss to the Jaguars, they gave up nine nine

717
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: carries for sixty four yards first half, seven point one

718
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: per carry. Then in the next loss to Detroit in

719
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 3: week three, eighty one rushing yards in the first half

720
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 3: on fifteen carries. That's five point four to carry. Next

721
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 3: time they lost was in week ten to Tennessee. They

722
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 3: gave up sixty nine yards on nineteen carries in the

723
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 3: first half. Then in Week fourteen, that game they ended

724
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: up losing to Miami on the last second the Kenyan

725
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: Drake miracle one hundred and forty two yards on twelve

726
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: carries in the first half alone. In their final loss

727
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: of the season, to Pittsburgh. They gave up eighty four

728
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 3: rushing yards on ten carries in the first half. So

729
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: this is and the Chargers are a team that they

730
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: ranked number two on offense in passing DVLA, but also

731
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 3: number sixty in rushing. Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler both

732
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 3: averaged over five yards per carry during the regular season.

733
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 3: So this Chargers team is well equipped to attack this

734
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 3: Patriots defense. And I think the snow probably actually would

735
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 3: help the Pats a little because maybe they wouldn't be

736
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 3: quite as worried about the pass game. But you still

737
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 3: do have to be worried about the Chargers pass game

738
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 3: because they're good.

739
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: They're really good against the pass.

740
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: They've been playing some strong defenses lately, which has kind

741
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 3: of muted that to some degree. But the bottom line

742
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 3: is this is a top offense whether you're running or passing,

743
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 3: and I.

744
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 2: Think it's gonna be a tough game for the Patriots.

745
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 3: I mean, on the other side, you have, you know,

746
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 3: Ryan collinsor through an article about how the key stopping

747
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: Tom Brady is getting pressure on him. You know, last

748
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: season ranked number one in the league, and passer rating

749
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 3: under pressure this season down to twenty first and with

750
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 3: Bosa back, and it's helped Ingram out as well, because

751
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: over these last four games, nine quarterback hits combined for

752
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: Bosa and Ingram and six combined sacks, and Ingram really

753
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 3: kind of didn't start the year quite as well, and

754
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 3: I think that a lot of that was to do

755
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: with the fact that Bosa wasn't on the other side.

756
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: So you have Trent Brown at left tackle for the

757
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: Pats and Marcus Cannon at right tackle. Both of those

758
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,959
Speaker 3: guys were outside the top twenty five in pass blocking efficiency.

759
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: Pro Football focuses metrics, so I think on both sides

760
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: of the ball, there's reasons to be concerned if you

761
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: are the pass and I just I mean, it's really

762
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 3: Belichick is is is what's given them their their advantage

763
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 3: at this point because I don't really see a lot

764
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 3: of straight up matchup Evans. I mean, you have Edelman

765
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 3: going against Desmond King. He gives up catches here and there,

766
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,720
Speaker 3: but really he's one of the top corners slot corners,

767
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: especially in the league. You have you know, Gronk, he

768
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,479
Speaker 3: would go, he would end up facing against this Charger

769
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 3: defense that ranked best in the league in DVOA against

770
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 3: tight ends.

771
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially.

772
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 2: Right.

773
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, So and then you have on the outside, I

774
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 3: mean without now that you don't have Josh Gordon, that

775
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: changes everything on the outside as well, because you know,

776
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 3: now you have Hogan and whether it's Patterson or Dorset

777
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 3: or whatever or not, now one of those guys is

778
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 3: gonna get taken out of the game by hate. I

779
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 3: mean we already see a whole Hogan essentially run like

780
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 3: spend every snap on the field and barely be targeted.

781
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 3: And if if Casey Hayer is on him, I don't

782
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: think that's going to change.

783
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 2: So just a lot of things.

784
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 3: They really might need some type of like trick play

785
00:34:56,080 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 3: Edelman pass or something like that. Cordell Patterson probably involved,

786
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 3: maybe something on special teams. But barring that, I don't

787
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 3: really see a huge advantage for New England outside of

788
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 3: that intangible factor that is Belichick and his ability to

789
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 3: just cook up whatever he needs to in these playoff games.

790
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: But given that the spread is still you know, more

791
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 3: than a field goal, I like the Chargers on anything

792
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 3: more than a field goal here. Yeah, so I'm taking

793
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 3: a Chargers in the spot. I think they have a

794
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 3: if this is this is this, this is the chance.

795
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 3: This is their chance, like their chance to win this game.

796
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 3: Rivers has been the better quarterback than Brady this year

797
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 3: by almost every metric.

798
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 2: This is this is a Chargers chance.

799
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rivers. Rivers is the better quarterback I think, not

800
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: even just sort of like this season, but probably at

801
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: like this point in their careers, you know, like moving forward.

802
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: I think he's probably better than Tom Brady at this point.

803
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: And this is like his chance, not even just to

804
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: win this game, but like the super Bowl solidifies his legacy, you.

805
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 3: Know what I mean.

806
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: He's like, he's the guy in that class that hasn't

807
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: won a super Bowl yet. Ben Roethlisberger has to, Eli

808
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: Manning has to Philip Rivers has nothing right except like

809
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: he played on a torn acl in a playoff game,

810
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 1: which is like really manly, but he didn't win the game,

811
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: you know, so anyway, like okay, this.

812
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,439
Speaker 2: I mean, we know Philip Rivers is really manly because

813
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 2: how yes.

814
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: I think I think eight and a half at this point.

815
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: This like picking the Patriots. This is a heart pick

816
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: and not a head pick because I know I'm on

817
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 1: the wrong side of this. Like I think the big

818
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: difference between the teams is at the coaching level. And

819
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 1: then also I think playing on the road tends to

820
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: be undervalued. Sorry, playing at home like that home field

821
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: debandage probably tends to be overvalued. But like with weather,

822
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: I think it actually does matter. So you have this

823
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: Southern California team playing in potentially snow, and even if

824
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: there's no snow, definitely cold weather. Like, I think that

825
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: is worth more than like a point, you know what

826
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,839
Speaker 1: I mean? Like, I think that's worth something. And then

827
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: you have Belichick and I think for all of the

828
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 1: shortcomings that the Patriots passing game has this season, and

829
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: then matched up against the Chargers in particular, and you

830
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: pointed them out, I think those won't matter this much

831
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be a really run

832
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: heavy game. I think that is how the Patriots will

833
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: beat the Chargers. The Chargers are not as good against

834
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: the Ron this year as they maybe like previously have been.

835
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: And then they're also significantly injured, like they're missing linebackers,

836
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: they're missing their nose tackle. Last we saw them, they

837
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: were playing like they figured out their best configuration on

838
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 1: defense was literally playing seven defensive backs. Like the Patriots

839
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 1: are just going to line up and run against them.

840
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: And I think all of the advantages that the Chargers

841
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: have will be diminished because of that. And so like

842
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 1: if I'm thinking this is a close game, but you

843
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: have Belichick, you have still Brady potentially making clutch throws.

844
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: You know, I don't like he's I mean, I still

845
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: think he's good enough to make key throws when they

846
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 1: need him to, especially on designed plays where they're they're

847
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: giving him an open guy. I think they can win

848
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: by four, you know, I think they can do that

849
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: at home, playing in the cold. I don't see the

850
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: Chargers having the offense that they normally have in the

851
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:19,760
Speaker 1: cold weather.

852
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 3: I mean, you could argue though that that the weather

853
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 3: like it almost helps the Chargers a bit because they're

854
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 3: the better like the Patriots aren't. Like all right, for all, Like, yes,

855
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 3: the Chargers are missing linebackers, but that that seven defensive

856
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: back look or whatever it was, like that was a.

857
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: Highly successful look for them last week.

858
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: Like they shut down the Ravens run defense, run offense,

859
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 3: excuse me for most of that game. And it was

860
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 3: really Lamar Jackson just making ridiculous plays off of schedule

861
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 3: in the past game that even got the Ravens closed.

862
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 2: The Chargers are still they were better than in the

863
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 2: against the run than the Patriots. They were tent to Dvoa.

864
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 3: The Pats were nineteenth, and then the Chargers are better

865
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 3: and run offense than the Patriots as well, you know,

866
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 3: so I mean in that kind of game, you know,

867
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 3: especially because the Chargers, you know, they play a lot

868
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: of his own but they could match up man to

869
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 3: man if they need to against the past and if

870
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: it's if they want to put an extra defender in

871
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 3: a box or something like that. Because they don't, the

872
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 3: pass is not as much of a threat because of

873
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 3: the weather. I mean, it's like, yeah, it's gonna come down.

874
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 3: Are they Are they soften? Are they just going to

875
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 3: play poorly because of the bad weather. But I don't

876
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: think the matchup itself necessarily just because it's going to

877
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 3: be a run heavier game favors the Patriots. I just think, yeah,

878
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: I mean, the Chargers could just come out flat because

879
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 3: they're on the road and it's cold, and that's certainly possible.

880
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 2: But man, it's I don't know.

881
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I know I'm being the square on this,

882
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 1: like I know it, but like part and going along

883
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: with us. So like for all the mistique that Belichick

884
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 1: has in the fact that the Patriots have been like

885
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 1: the team you clearly want to back in the regular season,

886
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: both on like their win totals and just against the

887
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 1: spread every week. In the postseason, the Belichick Patriots have

888
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: not been nearly as good against the spread. And I think,

889
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 1: you know, you can you can make some sense out

890
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: of that. They're playing harder opponents in general, and there

891
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 1: might be more betters, you know, like the books can

892
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 1: probably shade the lines a little bit because they will

893
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 1: have more recreational betters who are just kind of focused on, oh,

894
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: it's a playoff game, I'll bet this. So I know

895
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: I'm on the square side of this, but I just

896
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 1: I don't know.

897
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: I can't.

898
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: I can't not back the Patriots here. That's just kind

899
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: of like the way my head feels it. I mean,

900
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: my heart feels about it. My head knows I'm I'm

901
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 1: on the long side.

902
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 3: It's such a weird thing too, because I feel like,

903
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 3: for the first time, this is another weird thing about

904
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 3: the Charges, like they actually have decent special teams. I think,

905
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 3: you know, like Desmond King has given them a big

906
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 3: lift in a return game, and the kicker badgely has

907
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 3: been a lot better than pretty much.

908
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: Any other kicker. I mean, I get it, I get it.

909
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 2: You know, the Patriots, they're at home. They should, they

910
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: should take care of business.

911
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 3: But again, I just like the Chargers anything more than

912
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 3: a field bo If it's a field goal, then I

913
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 3: think then I don't really want any part of either side.

914
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's talk about this last game here,

915
00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 1: and this is the game, this is the one I'm

916
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: I'm really excited about, probably irrationally excited about it. We

917
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: have the Eagles at the Saints. The Saints favored by

918
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 1: eight a fifty point five over under. The spread is

919
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: down from ten, the total is down from fifty one

920
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 1: and a half. Oh boy. We have the Super Bowl champions,

921
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: always the underdogs on the road against the number one seed.

922
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is still out for the Eagles with the

923
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: back injury, so Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles will once

924
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 1: again fill in, not counting the meaningless Week seventeen game

925
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: last year. The Eagles are ten and one and folds

926
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: it starts. They've won six of their last seven games,

927
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: including four straight must win games. The Saints, after losing

928
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 1: in Week one, lost only one other time all year

929
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 1: in a game that actually mattered, and now they are

930
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 1: at home, coming off of the bye. What are you

931
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: doing with this game?

932
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 2: I mean this kind of sets up the same as

933
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 2: it did last week.

934
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 3: You got the Eagles as the biggest underdog on the

935
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: board going into a game that apparently no one thinks

936
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: they can win. I think they have a pretty good

937
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 3: shout at winning this game.

938
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: I don't think the same they're going to win this game.

939
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: They're going to win this game.

940
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 3: Nick Foles, how that would put him what two games

941
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 3: away from being Ben Franklin.

942
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 1: Not exactly. I mean they will have they will have

943
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 1: a Nick Fole statue right next to the Rocky statue

944
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 1: if he wins the second Super Bowl.

945
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 2: Oh man, a one hundred dollar bill is not safe.

946
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 5: Huh now, But yo, I'm with you.

947
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 2: I think uh, I think they goes have a good

948
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: shot of win this game.

949
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 3: I don't think the Saints match up particularly well against

950
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 3: the Eagles because the Saints, what do they want to do?

951
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 2: They want to run the football.

952
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: That's what they've been doing at the highest rate outside

953
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 3: the Seahawks in the league this season.

954
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: And even though Nick Foles has.

955
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 3: You know, obviously given him a lift over his last

956
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 3: four games. I think it's gone under talked about how

957
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 3: much this this run defense for the Eagles has stiffened.

958
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: Because they're allowing fifty seven point five rushing yards per

959
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 3: game over that four game span that Foles has been

960
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 3: their starter. The run is not that important compared to

961
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 3: the past, but I think it does take on more

962
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 3: importance against the team like the Saints who want to run.

963
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 3: Because for as much flack as that Eagles secondary catches,

964
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 3: and it should, you know, the Saints have one one

965
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 3: guy really that's gonna exploit that, and that's Michael Thomas.

966
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: And the Eagles are dead last.

967
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 3: They finished the regular season dead last in schedule justice

968
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: receiving yards allowed to number one wide receivers at ninety

969
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 3: point nine per Football Outsiders, and then we saw Alan

970
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 3: Robinson put up his highest yardage total since December of

971
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:31,439
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen against them last week in the wildcard rounds.

972
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,720
Speaker 3: So I think Michael Thomas gets his love his yardage

973
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 3: prop this week and all that, but I think ted

974
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 3: Ga is gonna be really important here because you're gonna

975
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: need more than just that. Like we saw the bear,

976
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: we saw for all of out what Alan Robinson did.

977
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,720
Speaker 3: I think the reason the Bears only ended up putting

978
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: up fifteen points was because they didn't really have that

979
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 3: Jordan Howard aspect that they've been having over these past

980
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: like six to eight games, and that really kind of

981
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 3: slowed them down, even though Trubisky put up numbers, Robinson

982
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 3: put up numbers, and then the Saints are kind of,

983
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: you know, if Ingram and Kamara aren't being explosive, if

984
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 3: they're just getting that three four yards per rush or

985
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 3: whatever or not. I mean, the Saints team is not

986
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: necessarily a team that's gonna run away from you. And

987
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 3: you know, the Eagles, in addition to being very good

988
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: against the run, they are the number one defense in

989
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 3: the league in terms of red zone conversion rate and

990
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,959
Speaker 3: they are the number six defense in terms of third

991
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 3: down rate. So if you could stop the run and

992
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 3: get the Saints to beat you in situational football, the

993
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 3: Eagles are still one of the better defenses in situational

994
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: football in the weak. So I don't think this is

995
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 3: the game where, you know, the Saints necessarily run away.

996
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 3: I think the key is going to be that they

997
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,879
Speaker 3: have to start aggressive and not kind of get caught

998
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 3: up and trying to run the ball early. Because the

999
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 3: Eagles have been the worst team in the league, tied

1000
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 3: for the weak low two point six points per game

1001
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 3: in the first quarter.

1002
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 2: They've started very slow.

1003
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: That hasn't gotten that much better under Foals. Three first

1004
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 3: quarters they scored only a field goal and in the

1005
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: fourth they got a touchdown, So still only sitting there

1006
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 3: around four points a game in the first quarter with

1007
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: Foals of these last four weeks, and that was still

1008
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 3: rank in the bottom eight in the week. So the

1009
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 3: Eagles probably won't start fast. The Saints have to kind

1010
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 3: of jump on them early. They have to take their

1011
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 3: shots downfield to take in. I think Sean Payton will

1012
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 3: probably realize that and do that, so.

1013
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 2: I'm not too worry.

1014
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 3: The Saints were number four in the league and first

1015
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 3: quarter points at home at seven point one.

1016
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 2: That's really to me the key for the Saints.

1017
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 3: But I don't really see a reason why the Eagles

1018
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 3: can't keep this within one possession. I mean, I think

1019
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 3: it's going to be a totally different kind of meeting

1020
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 3: than we saw the first time. And if you look back,

1021
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: because I know a lot of people are going to

1022
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 3: make a lot of the you know, the forty eight

1023
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 3: to seven beatdown that the Saints laid on the Eagles

1024
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 3: in the first meeting, but in a divisional round. If

1025
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 3: you look at teams that lost the previous meeting in

1026
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 3: a divisional round and their underdogs are twenty eight and

1027
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 3: fifteen against the spread when they play in the divisional round,

1028
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 3: and that would suggest that you know, this game is

1029
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 3: going to be a lot tighter than we expect. If

1030
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 3: that's the case, I think, like, I think you can

1031
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 3: to see a whole different type of football games. So

1032
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 3: I like the Eagles to keep within one possession for

1033
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 3: this one. So I'm taking Eagles plus plus eight.

1034
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I don't think I really even need to

1035
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: add anything to what you said. I'm taking the over.

1036
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: You know, it's the course field of fantasy football. I

1037
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: think lots of points are going to be scored. I

1038
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a very exciting game real

1039
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 1: quick though.

1040
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 2: So my concern with the over in this game is,

1041
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 2: like if the Saints aren't.

1042
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: As effective running the football as they normally were, Like,

1043
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 3: you don't think that this game could kind of take

1044
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 3: a similar tone to like that Dallas Saints game or

1045
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 3: that Bears Eagles game from last week where you kind

1046
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 3: of see the team's putting up decent passing numbers, but

1047
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,479
Speaker 3: it's just not necessarily translating in the score.

1048
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 2: But well, in the Dallas Saints game, I mean, no

1049
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 2: one really did anything.

1050
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, like, you know, like, does the Saints potentially

1051
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 3: not being as successful with their running game as they

1052
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 3: would most weeks concern you at all with the total

1053
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 3: at fifty plus because I mean, again, and this is

1054
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 3: a Saints defense that's better than it was in previous years.

1055
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 2: This is an Eagles defense that's improving, you know.

1056
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,399
Speaker 3: So, I mean I don't think it's quite the same

1057
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: as like the previous years when the Saints have just

1058
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 3: had god awful defenses.

1059
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think that the Eagles offense is good

1060
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 1: enough to be able to counteract what the Saints defense

1061
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: is going to do. The Saints have a very good

1062
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 1: defensive line, but I don't think that matters so much

1063
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. With Bulls, they get the ball out

1064
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: very quickly. He takes almost no sacks. It's pretty incredible.

1065
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 1: So I think like they will still be able to

1066
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 1: score points against the defense. And then when the Saints

1067
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 1: have the ball, I could see them abandoning the run

1068
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Like I know that, like they want to

1069
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: be a team that runs the ball and like when

1070
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 1: they have ingram In Kamara, like that is kind of

1071
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: what they have been. But I think, like at their core,

1072
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: they are still a team that throws the ball, and

1073
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: I think when the run isn't there, they will very

1074
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: quickly pivot to breeze throwing the ball. And I think,

1075
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, that will result in good things for

1076
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas. But I don't know if they have the

1077
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: like enough guys to be able to do what they

1078
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: need to do through the passing game to put up

1079
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 1: the points to win the game, you know what I mean?

1080
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,720
Speaker 3: So you the Eagles are the same the Saints. You're

1081
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 3: thinking the Saints the Saints. But wouldn't that suggests like

1082
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 3: when don't you bet the under them?

1083
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 1: If you if you think, I mean, I think they will.

1084
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 1: I think they will be able to score enough points

1085
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: to hit the over, but I don't know if they

1086
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: will be able to score enough points to outdo what

1087
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 1: I'm thinking the Eagles are going to do.

1088
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,280
Speaker 2: So you're taking Egles money line in your personal.

1089
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think the Eagles are going to win.

1090
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm probably wrong, but I think the Eagles

1091
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: have a good chance of winning.

1092
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 3: Postseason underdog money lines since two thousand and three.

1093
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: Don't even tell me this. I know I'm gonna be

1094
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 1: I mean.

1095
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 2: Twelve point nine percent ROI.

1096
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,959
Speaker 3: Even though they've gone sixty two to one oh six

1097
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 3: straight up, that's only a thirty seven percent you know,

1098
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,240
Speaker 3: win rate that ROI. If who I just bet every

1099
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 3: single post an underdog since two thousand and three, you

1100
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 3: would be up twelve point nine percent.

1101
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: That's a a mis rated trend in bet labs.

1102
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 3: So and I'm sure it improves in the UH in

1103
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 3: the divisional round, I don't have like I come, let me, actually,

1104
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 3: I can get it up real quick. Yeah, if you

1105
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:17,440
Speaker 3: have bet every single postseason underdog on the money line

1106
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 3: in the divisional.

1107
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: Round, you have a thirty two point four percent.

1108
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, so maybe I'm not a total idiot, but yes,

1109
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 1: I think Philly. I think. I don't know. I mean,

1110
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: I mean I wouldn't say, oh yeah, fifty to fifty odds,

1111
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 1: But like, I think they have a real chance to

1112
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 1: win this game. I think that caters to the over

1113
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 1: for me. Okay, we're going to get to the primetime

1114
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: slate and talk some dfs. Right after, we hear from

1115
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 1: Ian Harditz, who runs through the key divisional round coverage situations.

1116
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 4: The press, the jam, and the five yard bump. Bean

1117
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 4: Harten springs you dance of the Divas.

1118
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 7: First up, his Colts First Chiefs t Y Hilton has

1119
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 7: not been practicing all week, but that's been a new

1120
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 7: norm for him recently. Not too concerned about his matchups

1121
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,920
Speaker 7: on the outside with Orlando Scandrick or Stephen Nelson, but

1122
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 7: Hilton and Andrew Luck have pretty bad outdoors splits during

1123
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 7: their career in Kansas City. Has been awesome at Arrowhead

1124
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 7: for the Chiefs. Tyreek Hill could see some shadow coverage

1125
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:21,640
Speaker 7: from Pierre to Sere, but the Chiefs do such a

1126
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 7: good job moving him around the formation and he's so

1127
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 7: fast it shouldn't really be an issue. The potential return

1128
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 7: of Sammy Watkins could lead the more slot time for

1129
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:32,240
Speaker 7: Chris Conley and Sammy Watkins has had a positive effect

1130
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 7: on Patrick Mahomes's career. Yards per a temph grade, the

1131
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,359
Speaker 7: Cowboys versus the Rams will feature on Marii Cooper versus

1132
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 7: Old AFC West Friends to keep to leaving Marcus Peters.

1133
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 7: They match up pretty well physically with Cooper, but the

1134
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 7: Cowboys and one receiver could see Enhans targets share. If

1135
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 7: Cole Beasley and Titan Blake Jarmer are ultimately unable to

1136
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 7: suit up, the Rams are set up pretty well Robert

1137
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 7: Woods and Brandon Cooks as well as Josh Reynolds against

1138
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 7: the Cowboys. Past funnel defense Byron Jones is stud but

1139
00:50:56,760 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 7: the Cowboys do not move their cornerbacks, so we can

1140
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 7: expect Rob Woods and Josh Reynolds to spend most of

1141
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,799
Speaker 7: their days across from Anthony Brown and Shadobio Woozier. The

1142
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 7: Chargers and Patriots will feature awesome cornerbacks on both sides

1143
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 7: of the ball, expecting Jason mccordy to slide down to

1144
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,800
Speaker 7: the slot to spend most of his naps against Keenan

1145
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 7: Allen Stefan Gilmore should be traveled with Mike Williams on

1146
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 7: the outside. As for the Patriots, Jolin the Edmund will

1147
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,399
Speaker 7: how to deal with Desmond King, who is PFS number

1148
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 7: two overall cornerback. Chris Hogan will see plenty of Casey Hayward.

1149
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 7: The Eagles were expecting to see marshaon Lattimore again shadow

1150
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 7: Alshon Jeffery as he did there in their first matchup,

1151
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,720
Speaker 7: which means Nelson Aglore will have to face off against

1152
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 7: Eli Apple Golden Tate's best position in the slot versus

1153
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 7: consistent liability PJ. Williams. Finally, Michael Thomas leaves the Saints

1154
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 7: receivers against the Eagles secondary. That isn't bad, They've gotten better,

1155
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 7: but I mean, come on, guys, Avonte Maddock's fourth round rookie.

1156
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 7: We saw get Burn double moves all the time last

1157
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 7: week versus Alan Robinson, Russell Douglas Gale a touchdown over

1158
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 7: one hundred yards receiving in these teams last matchups, and

1159
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,799
Speaker 7: Cravon LeBlanc wasn't even on the Eagles until Week ten?

1160
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: All right? That was Ian. Be sure to check out

1161
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 1: his wide Receiver Quarterback matchup column each week at the

1162
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 1: Action Network. Chris, let's talk about this this game and

1163
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:12,880
Speaker 1: the DFS players in particular, Eagles at Saints, the primetime

1164
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 1: slate for Sunday night. How are you starting your roster

1165
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 1: build for this?

1166
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,799
Speaker 3: Well, this one is actually it's a little you know,

1167
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 3: tougher than usual because you know, the Eagles have been

1168
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 3: playing that run defense, and it's like it's almost like,

1169
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 3: even though I try to always go into cash games

1170
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 3: with like the quarterbacks and the running backs, the Eagles,

1171
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 3: I mean, at this point, it's like they have three,

1172
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 3: well they really have two running backs because Josh Adams

1173
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:37,879
Speaker 3: played one snap last week, they ran three.

1174
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 2: Like, first of all, what the hell was going on?

1175
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: We talked about this real quick, like what was Doug

1176
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 3: Peterson doing When they have first and goal from what

1177
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 3: I guess it was the two or three or whatever,

1178
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: and they run two plays like two essentially dive plays

1179
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 3: with Darren Spros instead of Adams who has thirty five

1180
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 3: pounds Sprolls. Then they blow the time out, get the

1181
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 3: convert the fourth down, then it's time for the two

1182
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 3: point conversion, and they come back with another dive play

1183
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:11,280
Speaker 3: that to small Wood, who's Adams also has like another

1184
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 3: seventeen pounds.

1185
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: Like I get that he fumbled in a key spot,

1186
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 2: but if you're.

1187
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:16,760
Speaker 3: Gonna run those plays and they already didn't work twice

1188
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 3: with a smaller like a small.

1189
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,920
Speaker 2: Guy, like why why? Why? Why come back?

1190
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: So bringing it to this slag, Yeah, there's a question

1191
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: of what do you do with the Eagles backfield, do

1192
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,280
Speaker 1: you put Sprolls out there and just kind of hope

1193
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: do you go with small Wood thinking that he's maybe

1194
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 1: the guy who's the most well rounded of the group,

1195
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: who might get the most you know, it's just like

1196
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 1: it's hard to know what to do on that side

1197
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: of the ball. And then with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram,

1198
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 1: I think it's also kind of hard to know what

1199
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 1: to do because Kamara, like he just hasn't been the

1200
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 1: player that he was, you know, from an efficiency standpoint

1201
00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: last year or from a volume standpoint in the first

1202
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 1: month of the season when Ingram wasn't there. He's just

1203
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 1: not getting as many touches. So it's I think a

1204
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 1: real question of like is he worth the salary? And

1205
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: then like do you feel comfortable with Ingram? Like not really?

1206
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 1: So what like what do you do here?

1207
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: Oh?

1208
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you got a fait Ingram because like

1209
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 3: if like he's he's just he's just not cheap enough

1210
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 3: for what you're real like what you're trying to accomplish

1211
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 3: when you're if you're like anyway, So it's like like,

1212
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 3: first of all, there's a chance that and we kind

1213
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:24,880
Speaker 3: of saw this a little bit in last year's players,

1214
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,240
Speaker 3: like when when the going when pedal to the metal,

1215
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 3: Peyton's gonna go with Kamara over Ingram, like when when

1216
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 3: the going gets rough, Kamara is going to be the

1217
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 3: guy in the game.

1218
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 1: And that's why, especially when the passing game kicks in.

1219
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 2: Right right, because you know Kamara.

1220
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 3: I believe he was inactive in week seventeen, correct mark

1221
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 3: Ingram touched the ball seven times. Now, granted so did

1222
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 3: Michael Michael Thomas got some targets too, but like Michael Thomas,

1223
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:50,840
Speaker 3: I believe he was chasing some type of milestone or something. So,

1224
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 3: you know, I think that and this is just a

1225
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 3: poor matchup for Ingram because he's the runner, Like he's

1226
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: the more the guy that you think of when you

1227
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,240
Speaker 3: think of like, Okay, he's not gonna catch as many passes,

1228
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 3: He's gonna be the runner. And this Eagles defense has

1229
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 3: been lights out against the run, you know, with with

1230
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 3: that with that front floor and Fletcher Coxon, all those guys.

1231
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 2: And so I just don't think this is a great

1232
00:55:10,000 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 2: matchup for him.

1233
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 3: Like I'd almost just rather I think I abandoned my

1234
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 3: usual strategy of going you know, quarterback quarterback, running back

1235
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 3: and running back, and I because you can fit Thomas Kamara,

1236
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 3: Fosen Breeze in your lineup. And I think you just

1237
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 3: do that because I think you know Thomas. If there's

1238
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 3: anyone that's gonna have a monster game that's not a

1239
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:30,879
Speaker 3: quarterback or a running back, and Thomas just like he's

1240
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 3: probably the most likely guy to have a monster in

1241
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 3: this spot. And I think, yes, you want to have

1242
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 3: Breezon there because that secondary is poor. But I think

1243
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:41,279
Speaker 3: you really this is one of those situations where I

1244
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 3: could really see it hurting you fading Michael Thomas. So

1245
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 3: I think you just kind of you take your chances

1246
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 3: with with a core of that four, and then you

1247
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 3: make it work around them with guys like Watson, Goddards,

1248
00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 3: Josh Hill if you have to. If you're gonna go

1249
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 3: with the Eagles back, I don't think you could fit

1250
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 3: it with that construction, but I would do because the

1251
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,839
Speaker 3: Saints are also a top defense against the run as well,

1252
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 3: and so I don't think that Smallwood will be quite

1253
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 3: as valuable in this spot. They obviously just trust spros

1254
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 3: because remember Corey Quiment was like their third back last

1255
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 3: year and they used him quite a bit. And Adams

1256
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 3: is a rookie, and they he fumbled and they haven't

1257
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:19,879
Speaker 3: really used him much since, and Spros is the guy

1258
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 3: getting those goals on carriers.

1259
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 2: I mean, I think Spros is your guy if you're

1260
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:23,399
Speaker 2: looking for EO's back.

1261
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think i'd probably just try to get

1262
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 3: Michael Thomas in there with the Kamara, Foles and Andrew Breeese.

1263
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think for me, especially because I'm thinking the

1264
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: over and I'm thinking that happens because it's a passing game.

1265
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: I think you just you go with the passing attack

1266
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 1: so that that leads you to Kamara as someone who

1267
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 1: can contribute as a receiver and Sprolls and then yeah,

1268
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,280
Speaker 1: like Thomas is someone who is really intriguing. I should

1269
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: give a plug to the Action Network article that Sean

1270
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 1: Corner has this week. He has highlighted Michael Thomas as

1271
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 1: a value play plus eight hundred. You can find him

1272
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: on some sportsbooks, which those odds are far too, far

1273
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 1: too low plus eight hundred to finish the week as

1274
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: the leading receiver. Something to think about. But yeah, so

1275
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 1: I think it's a question of how you exactly how

1276
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 1: you can figure lineup who you're putting in the captain

1277
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 1: spot which running backs you might be using. But yeah,

1278
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:18,439
Speaker 1: definitely interesting stuff there.

1279
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 3: Breathe costs more than Thomas, costs more than Camaraw So

1280
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 3: I mean, like it's not like you could still put

1281
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 3: Kamara in the captains Like, I don't think Kamara will

1282
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,439
Speaker 3: struggle for like numbers in this game. I think he'll

1283
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 3: get his usage and his numbers. It's just you know,

1284
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 3: it's not like a smash spot. But I mean, if

1285
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 3: it's coming down the salary, I think you definitely have

1286
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 3: to consider it, just because you know, you really do

1287
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 3: want to get Thomas in there as well.

1288
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and as as Chris mentioned, he will be looking

1289
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: at the prop I'm imagining the over. Yeah you mentioned

1290
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 1: over for Michael Thomas. Definitely something I will also be

1291
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 1: looking at. I will be obviously consulting the Props tool,

1292
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: which has a hit rate of sixty four percent this

1293
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 1: year on the props that have a beat quality of

1294
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 1: tap And obviously you can access the tool at Fantasy Labs.

1295
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Speaker 1: We have a five day trial for just fifteen ninety five.

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Speaker 1: Chris any closing thoughts here, let's get this money, all right?

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Speaker 1: That is going to do it for the Friday episode

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure to rate, review,

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Speaker 1: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raybond,

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00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Freeman, Matt at the Oracle. See you again

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Speaker 1: next episode,