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Speaker 1: Life from the Bloomberg Interacting Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break for Friday, March twenty fourth. Coming up today,

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen says the government stands ready to protect the

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Speaker 1: banking system. The chorus grows louder for the Fed to

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Speaker 1: cut rates this year. China rolls out the welcome that

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Speaker 1: for Tin Cook and other top corporate executives and TikTok testimony.

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Speaker 1: False flash on Capitol Hill. What made hundreds of students

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Speaker 1: sick at a high school on Long Island? Plus? North

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Speaker 1: Korea says it has an underwater drone with a nuclear warhead.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Block. More ahead, I'm John Stash, Aaron's wards.

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Speaker 1: The Knicks and Nets lost, the Rangers won. Four teams

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Speaker 1: advanced to the Elite A to the NCAA tournament. That's

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Speaker 1: always straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, The Business News

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Speaker 1: you need to sturn your day, and just one fifteen

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Speaker 1: minute podcast each pointing on Apples, Spotify, The Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: Appen everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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Speaker 1: Hagar and I'm Karon Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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Speaker 1: following today, Karen. We began with the latest on the

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Speaker 1: turmoil in the banking industry, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says

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Speaker 1: regulators are prepared to take more steps if needed, to

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Speaker 1: protect the banking system. Yellen spoke before a House Appropriation subcommittee.

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Speaker 1: The strong actions we've taken ensure that Americans deposits are safe.

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Speaker 1: Certainly we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.

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Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments came a day after she said

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Speaker 1: officials had not considered temporarily expanding insurance to all US deposits. Well.

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Speaker 1: The con former economic policymakers are criticizing the fed's bank

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Speaker 1: stress tests in twenty twenty two for failing to pro

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Speaker 1: potential vulnerabilities in the banking system. Be got up with

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Speaker 1: former FED Governor Dan Tarullo, but I think in the

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Speaker 1: most immediate sense this is clearly a supervisory failure. Other

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Speaker 1: factors may be uncovered as the own investigation proceeds, and

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Speaker 1: Dan Trullo, oversaw financial regulation and supervision at the FED,

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Speaker 1: may be cooments in a special Bloomberg round table, along

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Speaker 1: with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Bloomberg News Head

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Speaker 1: of Economics Stephanie Flanders, hear more of that conversation a

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Speaker 1: little later in the program. Well Karen, one top banking executive,

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Speaker 1: says the worst of the crisis may be behind us.

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Speaker 1: We spoke exclusively this morning with Standard Chartered CEO Bill

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Speaker 1: Winters in Hong Kong. I hope we're through the worst,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's still some questions around business models

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Speaker 1: around the world, or have there been weaknesses that have

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Speaker 1: been exposed in the business models of any of the

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Speaker 1: companies that have had trouble that need to be addressed

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Speaker 1: at this point, But it certainly seems that the acute

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Speaker 1: phase of the crisis has done. Standard Chartered CEO Bill

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Speaker 1: Winter says he'd be open to looking into credit suite

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Speaker 1: as assets if they were made available. Well, Nathan, there

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Speaker 1: may be more trouble for a credit suite and ubs,

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Speaker 1: and it's related to the war in Ukraine. The banks

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Speaker 1: are among several facing a Justice Department investigation into Russian

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Speaker 1: only guard finding help avoiding sanctions. Amy Morris says more

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Speaker 1: from our Bloomberg in ninety nine one newsroom in Washington,

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Speaker 1: sources tell Bloomberg News the Swiss banks were included in

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Speaker 1: a wave of subpoenas that were sent out by the

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Speaker 1: US government before the crisis that resulted in UBS's takeover

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Speaker 1: of Credit Suees. DJ is focusing on identifying which bank

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Speaker 1: employees dealt with sanctioned clients and how those clients were

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Speaker 1: vetted over the past several years. US Deputy Attorney General

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Speaker 1: Lisa Monaco says the Justice Department is beefing up its

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Speaker 1: National Security Division, saying, quote, corporate crime and national security

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Speaker 1: are overlapping to a degree never seen before. Credit Suis

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Speaker 1: and UBS declined to comment in Washington. I'm Amy Morris,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Day Break. All right, Amy, thank you. Now, let's

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Speaker 1: turn to the economy. The chorus is growing on the

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Speaker 1: Fed not to raise rates this year, but to cut them.

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Speaker 1: Let's get the latest live from Bloomberg's John Tucker, John

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Speaker 1: and A Double Line Capital's Jeff Gundlock is adding his voice.

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Speaker 1: He took to Twitter saying the Fed's going to be

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Speaker 1: cutting interest rates substantially, and they should be doing it soon. Well,

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Speaker 1: he sees the same data as everybody else, an adverted

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Speaker 1: yield curve that Gunlack calls a red alert recession signal.

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Speaker 1: He's at odds with the Fed. Share Jpale, who said

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Speaker 1: this week that officials don't anticipate cutting rates, the market

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Speaker 1: is pricing for easing before the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Live in New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg day Break.

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Speaker 1: All right, John, Thanks World. China is hoping to show

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Speaker 1: the world it's back in business. It's hosting a high

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Speaker 1: profile corporate summit this weekend, and some top American executives

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Speaker 1: will be there. We get the latest live with Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Steve Rappaboord's Steve, Good Morning, Good Morning, Karen and Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Organizers of the China Development Forum say hundreds of foreign

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Speaker 1: representatives from various industries registered to attend the three day event.

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Speaker 1: Corporate a listers like Apple CEO Tim Cook and Fiser

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Speaker 1: boss Albert Borla plan to show up, but many American

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Speaker 1: companies are sitting this one out. Sources tell us that's

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Speaker 1: because they want to avoid scrutiny from a newly formed

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Speaker 1: House committee investigating China's Communist Party. The conference will be

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Speaker 1: held fully in person this year for the first time

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Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen, before the pandemic upended business for Beijing.

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Speaker 1: Live in New York. I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks

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Speaker 1: Steve While, the CEO of TikTok, had a long day

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Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill, but it might not have gotten him

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Speaker 1: any closer to assuring House lawmakers that the wildly popular

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Speaker 1: app is safe for national security. Show Chow was asked

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Speaker 1: repeatedly whether the Chinese Communist Party can access Americans data.

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Speaker 1: I have seen no evidence that the Chinese government has

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Speaker 1: access to that data. They have never asked us. We

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Speaker 1: have no provided in a way I've asked it. I

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Speaker 1: find that actually preposterous. I looked in. I have seen

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Speaker 1: no evidence of this happening. Man. We got reaction to

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Speaker 1: show choose testimony from Senate Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner, and

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel for the CEO because he doesn't

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Speaker 1: have an answer end of the day. TikTok is owned

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Speaker 1: by Bye Dance. Bye Dance is a Chinese company. Chinese

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Speaker 1: law as of twenty seventeen says every Chinese company the

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Speaker 1: first obligation is not shareholders or customers. Their first obligation

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Speaker 1: is they got to turn over any information or any

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Speaker 1: kind of belity to manipulate content to the Commonest Party

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Speaker 1: of China. Democratic Senator Mark Warner spoke on Bloomberg Sound

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Speaker 1: On with Joe Math. You can catch the show weekdays

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Speaker 1: one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or listen on demand

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Right now, SMP futures are

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Speaker 1: lower by two point Stown futures are down sixty one,

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Speaker 1: and Nastack futures are higher by eighteen points. The ten

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Speaker 1: year treasury is up twenty three thirty seconds now for

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Speaker 1: a yield of three point three to four percent. The

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Speaker 1: yield on the two year is at three point seven

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Speaker 1: one percent. Straight ahead your latest local headlines and a

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Speaker 1: check of sports. This is Bloomberg. It is forty nine

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Speaker 1: degrees in New York. We got a chance for some

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Speaker 1: showers tonight. We'll head up to the year fifty. So

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Speaker 1: pretty much where we are now. Let's take a look

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Speaker 1: at some of the other stories making news in New

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Speaker 1: York and around the world. Good morning, Michael Barr, Good morning, Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Students became ill at a Long Island high school. About

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty students classes at Babylon High School

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Speaker 1: on Monday. Absences were down to one hundred ten yesterday.

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Speaker 1: About seven hundred students go to the school. The Suffolk

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Speaker 1: County Health Commissioner believes the likely cause is no ravirus.

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Speaker 1: There's a push in some New England states to help

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Speaker 1: the police know how to deal with the drivers who

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Speaker 1: have autism. Connecticut launched a Blue Envelope program for artistic

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Speaker 1: drivers three years ago. Now Rhode Island is considering the

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Speaker 1: same type of marker. Joanne Quinn has a twenty seven

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Speaker 1: year old son with autism. She says those police sirens

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Speaker 1: and lights will likely be a trigger and maybe even

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Speaker 1: take off if he says, hey, let's get out of

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Speaker 1: the car, and he'll get out of the car and

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Speaker 1: then he'll start talking at him, and with the lights

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Speaker 1: and noise going, Pat's going to turn and walk away.

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Speaker 1: I can't be here. I need to go somewhere else.

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Speaker 1: This is a century overload. How's that going to go

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Speaker 1: over with a police officer? Meanwhile, opponents fear this kind

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Speaker 1: of designation could lead to a breach of confidentiality. The

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Speaker 1: Pentagon says a US contractor was killed and five US

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Speaker 1: service members and another US contractor were wounded when a

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Speaker 1: suspected Iranian drone struck a facility on a coalition base

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Speaker 1: in northeast Syria. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says US Central

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Speaker 1: Command Forces retaliated with precision airstrikes. North Korea says it

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Speaker 1: has tested an underwater attack drone in its latest warning

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Speaker 1: to South Korea and the US to stop their current

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Speaker 1: military drones. According to state media, the weapon, fitted with

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Speaker 1: a nuclear warhead would destroy enemies with a large radioactive wave.

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Speaker 1: Analysts are skeptical. Secretary of State Antony Blincoln says funding

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine should last for much of the year. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: said Baxter as the story. Blincoln before the House Appropriation

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Speaker 1: Subcommittee says the billions already being approved as being closely watched,

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Speaker 1: and the embassy in Ukraine, he says forty five people

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Speaker 1: they're overseeing. This is a series of hearings focused on

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Speaker 1: the budget request for an eleven percent increase. Some lawmakers

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Speaker 1: have worried money is being lost to corruption and that

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Speaker 1: other nations are not doing enough. B Lincoln telling the

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Speaker 1: committee the US does have real burden, but notes the

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Speaker 1: other nations are doing other jobs, like taking in refugees

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Speaker 1: in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg. Day Break Global

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Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day, powered by more than

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Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in over one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Michael, time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Tri State Auty. Good morning, John stash hour

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Speaker 1: yead morning, Nathan. Not a good trip to Florida for

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Speaker 1: the next they lost in Miami, followed a night later

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Speaker 1: by a lost in Orlando. Knicks were without Jalen Brunson.

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Speaker 1: They fell behind by nineteen. They did rally, but the

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Speaker 1: Magic hit four late three pointers and one one eleven

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Speaker 1: one oh six oh chance for the Nets to get

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Speaker 1: to within a game of the Knicks for fifth of

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Speaker 1: the East. At Barkley's Nets Buckley, they had a victory

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Speaker 1: until three turnovers of the final minute. Cleveland, on a

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Speaker 1: three pointer with less than a second ago, pulled out

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Speaker 1: the win one sixteen one fourteen, sweeping the home and home.

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Speaker 1: Rangers and Hurricanes played at home at home, each winning

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Speaker 1: on the road. Rangers in Allie won two to one

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Speaker 1: on an out of Bucks Bowl NCUBAA tournament in overtime

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Speaker 1: at the Garden, Kansas State pulled out a ninety eight

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Speaker 1: ninety three win over Michigan State. The Wildcats Marquis Snowel

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Speaker 1: had nineteen assists. That's the most in any tournament game ever.

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Speaker 1: He's a New York City native. This is probably my

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Speaker 1: career high an assists. You know. Ever, I had a

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Speaker 1: couple of games of fourteen, a couple of games of

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Speaker 1: seventeen back in high school. But you know this one

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Speaker 1: was special. In front of my hometown, in front of

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Speaker 1: you know, the city, you know that loves me. I

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Speaker 1: came here playing some worries. You know how blessed and

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Speaker 1: grateful I am. Tomorrow at MSG Kansas State versus Florida Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: a surprising East Regional final the owl small school from

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Speaker 1: Boca Raton, Florida, but they've got a thirty four and

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Speaker 1: three record. They upset Tennessee sixty two fifty five a route,

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Speaker 1: then a thriller West Regional in Vegas, Yukon a third

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Speaker 1: straight blowout victory for the Huskies eighty eight sixty five

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Speaker 1: over Arkansas and Gonzaga, then top UCLA seventy six seventy

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Speaker 1: three on a late three point shot. Four more games tonight,

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Speaker 1: including Princeton seated fifteenth, taking on freighting that game in Louisville.

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Speaker 1: John Dashaw Bloomberg Sports Live from coast to coast from

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Speaker 1: New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide

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Speaker 1: on Sirius xamp, the Bloomberg Business App, and Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar. Markets

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Speaker 1: are searching for calm on this Friday as we close

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Speaker 1: out the most tumultuous two week stretch for the US

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Speaker 1: and global financial systems in recent memory. A weekend of

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Speaker 1: US regional bank runs was followed by a weekend that

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Speaker 1: saw the collapse of Credit Suie capped off by yet

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Speaker 1: another Federal Reserve rate hike this week. It's all left

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Speaker 1: many asking what went wrong, where did it go from here?

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Speaker 1: And should the FED shift its priorities from inflation to

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Speaker 1: financial stability. Not to mention, many are left wondering if

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Speaker 1: the Fed can achieve that soft landing amid all this turmoil,

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Speaker 1: When we explored the bank failures and financial stress tests

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Speaker 1: with some of the top voices in economic on a

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Speaker 1: special episode of Bloomberg's Wall Street week Our, David Weston

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Speaker 1: hosted that roundtable with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, former

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Speaker 1: FED Governor Dan to Rulo, and head of Economics at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Stephanie Flanders, let's bring you part of that discussion.

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Speaker 1: I want to start with you, Dan. You were a

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Speaker 1: colleague for several years of j. Powell. During the time

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Speaker 1: you were on the FED, you had responsibility for banks supervision.

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Speaker 1: We've been told the banks were so strong we didn't

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Speaker 1: have to worry about it what happened here. We didn't

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Speaker 1: think we still had banking problems. I trust that the

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Speaker 1: largest banks truly are in the much better capital and

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Speaker 1: liquidity position that Jay Powell referred to yesterday during the

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Speaker 1: press conference. But I think there are some things that

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Speaker 1: we do know. We know first that there was a

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Speaker 1: significant supervisory failure somewhere along the way. Was that failure

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Speaker 1: in the San Francisco Fed's inability to identify problems of

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Speaker 1: growth and maturity mismatches? Is in the like early on?

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Speaker 1: Was it a supervisory failure because of the light touch

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Speaker 1: approach to supervision that the Federal Reserve Board had put

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Speaker 1: in place over the last four or five years, Or

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Speaker 1: was it a supervisory failure because the supervisors generally had

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Speaker 1: not adjusted their method of assessing liquidity to take account

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Speaker 1: of very high uninsured deposit concentrations. Coexisting with the capacity

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Speaker 1: of big depositors to run at warp speed rather than

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Speaker 1: the way they used to run. I also would not

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Speaker 1: rule out a contributing factor being the twenty eighteen legislation

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Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen FED regulation, both of which deregulated banks

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Speaker 1: of under seven hundred or the regulation banks of under

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Speaker 1: seven hundred billion dollars in assets the legislation banks of

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Speaker 1: under two hundred and fifty. But I think in the

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Speaker 1: most immediate sense this is clearly a supervisory failure. Other

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Speaker 1: factors may be uncovered as the FED Zone investigation proceeds.

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Speaker 1: So Larry, let's put you back at the Treasury or

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Speaker 1: for them, or at the White House. If you were

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Speaker 1: looking at this situation, what questions would you be asking

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Speaker 1: to make sure you understood the possible ramifications of what

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Speaker 1: we've seen so far in a broader financial context. Before

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Speaker 1: I answered, Before I answer that hypothetical, let me put

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Speaker 1: a question to my friend Dan, who I'll just say

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Speaker 1: I think did an enormous amount to strengthen our financial

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Speaker 1: system during his time at the FED. Dan, I've heard

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Speaker 1: it said, and I don't know that. Even in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, the FED stress tests that were applied to

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Speaker 1: the largest banks did not include an analysis of the

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Speaker 1: stress from a major interstrate hike. If that's true, that

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Speaker 1: seems kind of bizarre from the point of view of

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Speaker 1: the world of early twenty twenty two, when it certainly

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Speaker 1: many people, certainly me on David's show, were emphasizing that

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Speaker 1: there was likely to need to be very substantial increases

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Speaker 1: in interest rates. Can you say something and if the

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Speaker 1: stress tests weren't considering increases in interest rates, then perhaps

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Speaker 1: the exempting of Silicon Valley Bank from the stress tests

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Speaker 1: was not central to understanding the problem. Can you say

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Speaker 1: something about interest rate hikes and FED stress tests? Sure? So,

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Speaker 1: First off, I think Larry, I agree with the statement

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Speaker 1: you made towards the end of your question, which is actually,

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Speaker 1: if Silicon Valley had been in last year's stress test

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Speaker 1: FOREL rather than its stress rehearsal, I don't think it

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Speaker 1: would have made much difference, for precisely the reason you

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Speaker 1: say that they weren't stressing the things that were the

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Speaker 1: SVB vulnerabilities with respect to stress testing. Generally, over again,

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Speaker 1: over the last five or six years, the stress test

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Speaker 1: has become eminently predictable. The scenario that's used is now

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Speaker 1: a single scenario, which is essentially a variant on the

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Speaker 1: very first one we put in some years ago. That

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Speaker 1: is a severe, quite severe recession, but it follows the

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Speaker 1: basic pattern of the scenario that was developed when we

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Speaker 1: began doing the annual stress test. The scenario, of course

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Speaker 1: includes a reduction in interest rates because of the hypothesis

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Speaker 1: of a recession and the Fed's reaction. When I was

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Speaker 1: at the FED, we were using also an alternative scenario.

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Speaker 1: It's called the adverse rather than severe, adverse scenario, and

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Speaker 1: we use that scenario to test things other than the

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Speaker 1: prototype of the severe recession, And indeed we used it

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Speaker 1: at least one year, and I think a couple of years,

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Speaker 1: to test what would happen with unusual changes and interest

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Speaker 1: rates which were not then anticipated. So to some degree,

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Speaker 1: the answer to your question is like supervision. Generally, the

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Speaker 1: stress test has become less rigorous over time, and I

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Speaker 1: think more importantly, it's become too predictable. And the whole

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Speaker 1: purpose of a stress test is that you're trying to

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Speaker 1: stress against the unanticipated, not the anticipated. At the risk

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Speaker 1: of preps being too tough on your former colleagues at

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Speaker 1: the fair, you talk about predictable versus unpredictable. I would

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Speaker 1: argue that at a very minimum, the stress tests ought

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Speaker 1: to consider what is the major risk of their moment

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Speaker 1: When you were at the fed DAN in that period,

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Speaker 1: I think it was reasonable to think that the major

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Speaker 1: risk was a tilt towards recession and deflation. But I

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Speaker 1: don't see how anybody last spring could have thought that

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Speaker 1: the major risk was anything other than a spike in

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Speaker 1: interest rates. So a process that didn't consider as a

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Speaker 1: risk seems to me to be a profoundly problematic process.

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Speaker 1: It seems almost like the supervisors were mailing it in.

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Speaker 1: Is there a defense? I would say, first, this is

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Speaker 1: not by way of defense, or certainly not an apologia,

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Speaker 1: but just a bit of explanation. It's quite likely that

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Speaker 1: the scenario development was taking place in the latter part

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one if it was going to be

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two stress test, And of course this

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Speaker 1: is the period in which the FOMC was still figuring

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Speaker 1: out that the inflation problem was not transitory. But I

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Speaker 1: don't want to use that as a kind of exculpation

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Speaker 1: of the supervisors. Second thing to say is it's not

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Speaker 1: the supervisors meeting the staff who are making the policy

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Speaker 1: decisions as to what kind of stress tests to have,

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Speaker 1: whether they have multiple scenarios, that's a decision of the

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Speaker 1: Board of Governors, and so it rests with them. But

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Speaker 1: I agree with the gravenment of your remarks, which is

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Speaker 1: not to have tried to think about something other than

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Speaker 1: the same scenario is a failure of supervision in and

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Speaker 1: of itself. Stephane, you've worked at the Treasure United States.

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Speaker 1: You also have covered financial markets and other business issues

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Speaker 1: over in Europe for a good long time. One thing

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Speaker 1: we're hearing from both Larry and and is rates were

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Speaker 1: going up and there weren't just going up here, They're

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Speaker 1: going up over in Europe as well. Was what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing around now in the banking system. Maybe not the

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Speaker 1: specifics of Silicon Value Bank, but was something like that

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Speaker 1: almost inevitable. After we've pumped so much money in the system,

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Speaker 1: we start taking it out, there's going to be stress,

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Speaker 1: real stress, and there's going to be some failure. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I wish I was I was closer to you guys,

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Speaker 1: because I knew I was going to struggle to get

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Speaker 1: a word in with you too. But I think in

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Speaker 1: this conversation, I think it is important when we're thinking

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Speaker 1: about what the implications are. You know, you have to

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Speaker 1: distinguish what is an outlier about not to Silicon Valley Bank,

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Speaker 1: but others that have got into trouble in this episode.

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Speaker 1: What is fundamentally a regulatory stupidity, you know, a very

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Speaker 1: traditional problem the interest rate risk that was just hiding

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Speaker 1: in plain sight, and what is a genuinely new issue

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Speaker 1: which was not being fully taken into account by anyone

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Speaker 1: looking at the risks. And I think when you look

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Speaker 1: at something like Silicon Valley Bank, you know clearly it

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Speaker 1: was an outlier in the speed with which deposits have

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Speaker 1: been built up, in its massive exposure to uninsured deposits

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Speaker 1: and reliance on that for funding. I hope it was

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Speaker 1: an outlier in not having a chief risk officer for

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Speaker 1: nine months, which was an extraordinary state of affairs. But

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Speaker 1: what was very traditional about this, and as the discussion

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Speaker 1: with Larry and Dan is suggesting, was that you know,

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Speaker 1: right here was a massive interest rate risk that was

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Speaker 1: whether or not it was in the stress test was

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Speaker 1: something that central banks should have been thinking very hard about.

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Speaker 1: And I think it was sort of striking that. We

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Speaker 1: had a lot of the debate around this, what are

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Speaker 1: the hidden risk You know, all the conversations that you

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Speaker 1: will have had, David, when you ask regulators what's keeping

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Speaker 1: you up at night, they would always talk about private equity.

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Speaker 1: They'd talk about non bank shadow banking. Has been the

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Speaker 1: thing that people were you know, was this worry for

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Speaker 1: all these years, and in fact it was the most

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Speaker 1: obvious problem sitting on bank balance sheets as a direct

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Speaker 1: result of monetary policy actions by central banks that has

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Speaker 1: actually caused this issue. I would just say, though one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons maybe they weren't looking at that so closely,

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Speaker 1: or that'd be interested to know what Dan and Larry

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Speaker 1: think about this. You know, there is an element of

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Speaker 1: this which is new, and we see in the speed

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Speaker 1: with which deposits left these institutions, and that's the non

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Speaker 1: stickiness of those deposits. And I think, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the things that regulators were thinking when they looked

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Speaker 1: considered interest rate risk potentially was that there was a

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Speaker 1: sort of self hedging mechanism in a bank of the

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Speaker 1: fact that deposits would be slow to move if they

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Speaker 1: weren't being paid the higher interest rates. That is no

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Speaker 1: longer the case, and I think that probably does have

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Speaker 1: longer term implications for regulation and potentially longer term implications

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Speaker 1: for how much we ensure deposits. We had a decision

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Speaker 1: from the Fed this week to raise another twenty five

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Speaker 1: basis points. Some people had been urging that actually they

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Speaker 1: just hold given the difficults with banking. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: he Jap admitted that there's more uncertainty about the extent

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Speaker 1: of which what's already happened with financial conditions may have

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Speaker 1: essentially imposed or the rate hike already. Did they get

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Speaker 1: it right? Dan, from your point of view, did j

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Speaker 1: Pal get it right? Market expectations helped him. They had

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Speaker 1: sort of converged around twenty five basis points, and so

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Speaker 1: then it became a communication issue. He said, quite explicitly,

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Speaker 1: it's too soon to tell how monetary policy should respond

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Speaker 1: to the anticipated credit tightening. But I actually think their

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Speaker 1: actions yesterday were a fairly significant response. I mean, everybody,

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Speaker 1: three or four weeks ago, people are anticipating a fifty

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Speaker 1: basis point increase. We got twenty five. Three or four

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. We thought we might see the step suggest

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Speaker 1: a ceiling of five to seventy five or six percent interest,

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Speaker 1: and now we're back to exactly where they were in

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Speaker 1: December at last December when they did the last SEP,

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Speaker 1: and of course they changed the language on the forward

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Speaker 1: guidance type language. Instead of ongoing increases, we're back to

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Speaker 1: may have some firm And of course some people were

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Speaker 1: reading that as the end or close to the end

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Speaker 1: of the tightening cycle. So I actually thought that they

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Speaker 1: were conveying more of an assessment of the impact than

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Speaker 1: Chair Palace suggested in his remarks yesterday. I think what

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Speaker 1: they did was broadly appropriate. It was a time for temporizing,

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Speaker 1: because there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of

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Speaker 1: cards are going to be turned over in the next

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Speaker 1: several months. And the question then was just temporizing mean

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Speaker 1: stopping all rat increases. And I think if they had

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Speaker 1: done that, it would have sent actually a signal that

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Speaker 1: they were very highly alarmed and would have been a

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Speaker 1: mistake whether to continue precisely on the path that they

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Speaker 1: were on before these banking concerns arose. I think that

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Speaker 1: would have seemed almost oblivious to what was a potentially

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Speaker 1: gathering storm. And so I think, as Dan suggests that

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Speaker 1: a middle ground path was right, and it was particularly

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Speaker 1: right if the policy is going to be signaling in

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Speaker 1: a clear way that even if your bank fails, you're

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Speaker 1: going to be a depositor as well. But yes, I

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Speaker 1: think what they did was broadly appropriate, particularly if we

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