Speaker 1: Good morning.
Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
Speaker 2: stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: We begin in Washington.
Speaker 1: That's where a temporary spending bill to avoid a government
Speaker 1: shutdown this weekend has cleared its first hurdle.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Amy Morris has more from the nation's capital.
Speaker 4: The Senate voted to advance the measure that will fund
Speaker 4: some federal agencies through March first and others through March eighth.
Speaker 4: The interim funding is the support of congressional leaders, including
Speaker 4: House Speaker Mike Johnson, so the prospects for passage in
Speaker 4: both chambers are good. Does not include several disputed items
Speaker 4: like eight for Ukraine restrictions along the US border or
Speaker 4: an eighty billion dollar business tax package. And there are
Speaker 4: hard right conservatives in the House who oppose funding agencies
Speaker 4: at current levels, but Speaker Johnson can bypass them by
Speaker 4: relying on Democrats for support.
Speaker 3: In Washington. Amy Moore as Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, Amy, thanks well. Now to the latest on
Speaker 2: the race for the White House. It's on to New
Speaker 2: Hampshire for the Republican candidates, and Bloomberg's at Baxter reports
Speaker 2: are really starting to heat up.
Speaker 5: Nicki Haley has been very careful not to directly attack
Speaker 5: Donald Trump, but one day after Iowa as she's calling
Speaker 5: him a bully and a liar. Trump lamb based Haley
Speaker 5: as a disaster. Now this all comes with polling that
Speaker 5: chowse the two very close. In New Hampshire, Real Clear
Speaker 5: Politics has Trump by about fourteen points, but the American
Speaker 5: Research Group even called it dead even at forty four percent,
Speaker 5: with Ron Desatus at only four percent. Tomorrow's schedule debate
Speaker 5: has been canceled because Haley declined if Trump wasn't going
Speaker 5: to be there at Baxter Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Radio, Okay, and thanks. Now let's turn to the Middle East.
Speaker 1: Israel and Hamas have reached a deal to deliver medicine
Speaker 1: and other aid to Gaza. That's according to the government
Speaker 1: in Kadra, which says this is in exchange for medicine
Speaker 1: reaching the hostages being held by Hamas. White House National
Speaker 1: Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says there is still a risk
Speaker 1: this war widens to a regional conflict.
Speaker 3: We do see a pathway to a shift in the.
Speaker 6: Military campaign in Gaza, a reduction in tensions and the
Speaker 6: exchange of fire along Israel's northern border, a reduction in
Speaker 6: the risk of escalation in other parts of the region,
Speaker 6: and we'll have to continue to deal with the Hoothi threat.
Speaker 1: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan spoke from the World Economic
Speaker 1: Forum in Davos. Israeli President Isaac Herzog plans to bring
Speaker 1: the families of hostages to the slopes in Switzerland today
Speaker 1: to step up pressure for their release.
Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, back here in the US, we are waiting
Speaker 2: for a key economic group board as doubt grows on
Speaker 2: whether the FED will start cutting rates as soon as March,
Speaker 2: and we get the very latest with the Bloomberg's John Tucker,
Speaker 2: John and Karen.
Speaker 7: Retail sales probably increased in December. However, the control group sales,
Speaker 7: which strip out volatile items, that likely slowed to a
Speaker 7: more subdue pace. Traders are launching on every piece of
Speaker 7: data as the FAN enters a blackout period next week. Yesterday,
Speaker 7: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller threw a little cold water
Speaker 7: around the idea of FED rate cuts as soon as March.
Speaker 8: With economic activity and labor markets in good shape, and
Speaker 8: inflation coming down gradually to two percent, I see no
Speaker 8: reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as
Speaker 8: in the past.
Speaker 7: With Wallner's comments, Transury suffered their biggest one day price
Speaker 7: drop in two months. Yield Seweragetan also drag stocks lower.
Speaker 7: John Tucker Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Radio, John thanks, rates are very much in focus overseas
Speaker 1: that the World Economic Forum. European Central Bank President Christine
Speaker 1: Legard said the ECB will probably cut rates by the summer.
Speaker 9: I would say it's likely too, but I have to
Speaker 9: be reserved because we're also saying that we are data
Speaker 9: dependent and that there is still a level of uncertainty
Speaker 9: and some indicators that are not anchored at the level
Speaker 9: where we would love to see them.
Speaker 1: ECB President Leaguard made those comments to Francine Lockwha at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg House in Davos. You can hear their full conversation
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Talks podcast.
Speaker 2: Well Nathan investors are scaling back their expectations for rake
Speaker 2: cuts from the Bank of England this year. Inflation in
Speaker 2: the UK unexpectedly accelerated for the first time in ten months.
Speaker 2: December's consumer price index was four percent higher than the
Speaker 2: previous year.
Speaker 1: On Wall Street, Karen JP Morgan Chase is bucking a trend,
Speaker 1: the bank plans to hire more workers. We caught up
Speaker 1: with JP Morgan president Daniel Pinto at Davos.
Speaker 10: We are employed at the end of the year around
Speaker 10: three hundred and twenty thousand people. So the number of
Speaker 10: people that employ has been growing.
Speaker 11: And not ranking.
Speaker 10: So I think that where we see opportunities and we
Speaker 10: can have our clients, for sure, we'll focus on that.
Speaker 1: Daniel Pinto's comments come after JP Morgan closed out the
Speaker 1: most profitable year in US banking history.
Speaker 2: Also more banking news this morning, Nathan, the government is
Speaker 2: unveiling a long awaited rule that could slash the biggest
Speaker 2: bank's income from overdraft fees by as much as three
Speaker 2: and a half billion dollars each year. Under the regulation
Speaker 2: from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, banks would only be
Speaker 2: able to charge what it costs for them to break
Speaker 2: even for covering an overdraft or a bu by a
Speaker 2: specific cap that would effectively eliminate overdraft charges for customers,
Speaker 2: which right now average about thirty five dollars.
Speaker 1: Let's turn to some corporate news now. Karen Apple has
Speaker 1: reached a milestone. The company's dethroned Samsung to become the
Speaker 1: world's top phone maker in twenty twenty twenty three. IDC
Speaker 1: estimates the iPhone accounted for a fifth of the global
Speaker 1: market last year with close to two hundred thirty five
Speaker 1: million shipments. Apple's dominated recent holiday quarters, but the full
Speaker 1: year surge is unprecedented, and it suggests Apple is weathering
Speaker 1: an industry wide slump better than its rivals.
Speaker 2: And finally, Nathan, it was supposed to be the merger
Speaker 2: from Heaven, or at least from thirty thousand feet, but
Speaker 2: now a federal judges block Jet Blues three point eight
Speaker 2: billion dollar acquisition of Spirit Airlines. The judge says the
Speaker 2: combination with stifle competition and raise fares for consumers. Jet
Speaker 2: Blue and Spirit contended that consolidation is the only way
Speaker 2: smaller airlines can effectively compete with the dominant carriers. Time
Speaker 2: and not for look at some of the other stories
Speaker 2: making news around the world. For that, we're joined by
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Amy Morris Amy, Good morning, Good morning, Karen.
Speaker 4: President Biden is worried about his supplemental bills stalling out
Speaker 4: in Congress, so he's inviting some of the key players
Speaker 4: to the White House today.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Nancy lyons with the latest.
Speaker 12: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre provided a list
Speaker 12: of those invited to the meeting, and then Biden.
Speaker 11: Will host congressional leaders from the Senate and the House,
Speaker 11: along with key committee leaders and ranking members.
Speaker 12: She says there's a lot to talk about, but President
Speaker 12: Biden has one topic he's especially concerned with.
Speaker 2: This is going to be about discussing critical importance of
Speaker 2: the President's Facial Security supplemental request.
Speaker 12: That's the proposal to further fund Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Speaker 12: Republicans are refusing to move on that until there's a
Speaker 12: consensus on a new border policy in Washington. Nancy lyons
Speaker 12: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 4: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says soil should be treated
Speaker 4: as a precious resource, telling the World Economic Forum in
Speaker 4: Davos that lack of food is causing unprecedented global migration
Speaker 4: flows at Russia's war in Ukraine and attacks by who
Speaker 4: they rebels and the Red Sea have made things worse.
Speaker 5: A parent who can't put food on the table for
Speaker 5: their children picks up the family and moves because it's
Speaker 5: the most basic thing, the most important thing that they
Speaker 5: can do.
Speaker 4: Lincoln says, the problem is likely to get worse as
Speaker 4: climate change threatens to reduce crop yields. Now Climate Envoy
Speaker 4: John Kerry, also at the World Economic Forum, says he's
Speaker 4: stepping down from the role within the Biden administration so
Speaker 4: he can take on a more vocal position for the
Speaker 4: Biden campaign. He assured other world climate leaders that yes,
Speaker 4: he'll still be around.
Speaker 13: I'm going to stay at this and there are so
Speaker 13: many different ways to continue to be able to be
Speaker 13: engaged in this.
Speaker 14: So unfortunately you're stock.
Speaker 13: You'll see me at the copy you see.
Speaker 4: Rivia Carrie says regardless of who wins the election, the
Speaker 4: global climate agenda will remain solid, and the World Health
Speaker 4: Organization says the number of adult tobacco users is on
Speaker 4: the decline. The organization says the biggest decrease in tobacco
Speaker 4: use is seen happening in lower to middle income countries.
Speaker 9: We have nineteen million less smokers than we had two
Speaker 9: years ago. That is the first time that we see
Speaker 9: such a decline.
Speaker 4: Doctor Rudiger Kresh is urging countries to continue putting control
Speaker 4: policies in place for tobacco. Global News twenty four hours
Speaker 4: a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.
Speaker 4: I'm Amy Morris and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, Amy,
Speaker 4: thank you.
Speaker 2: We do bring you news throughout the day right here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio. But now you can get the latest
Speaker 2: news on demand, and that means whenever you want it.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines
Speaker 2: of the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule.
Speaker 2: You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com plus apples, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John stash Hour John.
Speaker 15: Charny Atlanta Falcons, one of seven NFL teams looking for
Speaker 15: a head coach at indications that the Falcons are looking
Speaker 15: for a big name to be their new coach. The
Speaker 15: day after they interviewed Bill Belichick, they interviewed Jim Harbaugh,
Speaker 15: who previously had already interviewed with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 15: So Harbaugh clearly hasn't interest in returning to the NFL
Speaker 15: and leaving Michigan, where he just won a national championship. Reportedly,
Speaker 15: Harbaugh if he stays with Michigan wants it written into
Speaker 15: his contract that he can't be fired due to NCAA violations.
Speaker 15: Mike Tomlin has reportedly told his team in Pittsburgh that
Speaker 15: he'll remain as coach of the Steelers. It's the job
Speaker 15: he's had for seventeen years. The Steelers had only had
Speaker 15: three different head coaches in the last fifty four years.
Speaker 15: Jason Kelsey told his teammates in Philadelphia just after that
Speaker 15: blowout loss at Tampa Bay at the end of their
Speaker 15: season that he's retiring at age thirty six, thirteen years
Speaker 15: all with the Eagles. He won a Super Bowl, He
Speaker 15: went to the Pro Bowls seven times. Taulliat tadabaloo. That's
Speaker 15: to his younger brother, who's been playing quarterback for Maryland.
Speaker 15: Denied a waiver for another year of eligibility, so he
Speaker 15: journing the Pro Battle. The NBA's top two big man
Speaker 15: and Joe lmb And outplayed the Kola Yokiz. He scored
Speaker 15: forty one points in the second straight game. Philadelphia beat
Speaker 15: Denver one twenty six one twenty one big comeback and Phoenix,
Speaker 15: led by Kevin Durant, they were down twenty two to
Speaker 15: the fourth court of the Sun's rallied top Sacramento by two.
Speaker 15: Hockey of the Capitals are two nothing to win over Anaheim,
Speaker 15: kyl and Shops second right, Purdue.
Speaker 3: An easy win at Indiana. John Skashanwer Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 13: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 13: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on siriusxam, the Bloomberg Business
Speaker 13: app in Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
Speaker 1: European Central Bank President Christine Legard says aggressive bets on
Speaker 1: interest straight cuts from the financial markets are not helping
Speaker 1: policymakers with their task to bring down inflation, but she
Speaker 1: says it is likely the ECB will cut rates in
Speaker 1: the summer. Madame Lecguard spoke with our editor at large
Speaker 1: France seen Lockwow from the World Economic Forums Bloomberg House
Speaker 1: in Davos, Switzerland.
Speaker 3: Let's listen in to part of that conversation.
Speaker 11: Now, when you look at inflation, when you look at
Speaker 11: monetary policy, what's changed your mind on how quickly we
Speaker 11: get a cut from the ECB?
Speaker 9: You know, when I look at a year ago in
Speaker 9: doubles and when I compare that with where we are today,
Speaker 9: I see a slope downward, but certainly not a slope
Speaker 9: which is at target where we want it.
Speaker 14: So that's what we have achieved.
Speaker 9: I think in a little over a year, bring inflation
Speaker 9: back from where it was in October twenty two at
Speaker 9: ten point two percent down to a two point nine
Speaker 9: percent month and month December, and certainly with the prospect
Speaker 9: of keeping it down and further down because our target
Speaker 9: is two percent and we are you know, I would
Speaker 9: have said a year ago that we are determined we
Speaker 9: want to get it to SI I would say to
Speaker 9: you now that we are confident that we will get
Speaker 9: it to that target two percent medium turn.
Speaker 14: Are market's too optimistic on the industry. I'm not going
Speaker 14: to comment on markets.
Speaker 9: Markets do their job, they have their numbers, they have
Speaker 9: their objectives. What we do at the CB, and what
Speaker 9: I think most central banks would do, is work as
Speaker 9: hard as we can collecting data using artificial intelligence by
Speaker 9: the way for that, analyzing data, confronting viewpoints, checking models
Speaker 9: against empirical data, doing scenario analysis, and being as as
Speaker 9: comprehensive as we can to anticipate what's coming. And it's
Speaker 9: hard because what many people don't understand is that monetary
Speaker 9: policy works with a lag. So whatever we do now
Speaker 9: is going to have an impact in a few months
Speaker 9: and sometimes a year or two, and we have to
Speaker 9: take that in account to decide what we do, how
Speaker 9: long we hold, and what decision we make in due course.
Speaker 11: When you say that you gather data also with AI,
Speaker 11: it does AI also analyze because again you're looking at
Speaker 11: the current data. You're trying to forecast what your monetary
Speaker 11: policy is doing in the future.
Speaker 14: So is it algorithms? Like, how does that work?
Speaker 9: We do data collection a lot, we don't We don't
Speaker 9: determine monetary policy using algorithm and artificial intelligence. And I
Speaker 9: think that time we can check with the AI experts,
Speaker 9: of course, but I don't think that that time has
Speaker 9: come yet.
Speaker 11: When you look at again the forecast, and I understand
Speaker 11: you're not focused on the market, but if the markets prices.
Speaker 9: That are not focused, we look at them, we look
Speaker 9: at what they say. We are attentive, but everyone has
Speaker 9: their job and we cannot, you know, sort of second
Speaker 9: guess what they will think that we are thinking that
Speaker 9: they are second guessing. I mean, it's it's a catch
Speaker 9: twenty two job, right, But.
Speaker 11: If the market is too optimistic about cuts, does it
Speaker 11: actually hurt and not.
Speaker 14: Help the fight against inflation by doing that?
Speaker 11: I was going to ask you that, So it makes
Speaker 11: sure your job harder if if they're actually mispricing what
Speaker 11: you're trying to tell them.
Speaker 9: It is not helping a fight against inflation. If if
Speaker 9: the anticipation is such that you know, they are way
Speaker 9: too high compared with what's likely to happen.
Speaker 11: Is it too early to cry victory against inflation? How
Speaker 11: do you see it behaving?
Speaker 9: We are on the on the right path, We are
Speaker 9: directionally towards the two percent. But unless and until we
Speaker 9: are confident that it is sustainably at two percent medium
Speaker 9: term and we have the data to you know, support.
Speaker 14: It, I'm not going to shout victory. No, not yet.
Speaker 11: How much is the inflation reduction thanks to your monetary
Speaker 11: power and how.
Speaker 14: Much of it is like, No, I wouldn't call it luck.
Speaker 9: I think two factors have played a critical role, and
Speaker 9: it's the decline in energy prices that we have observed.
Speaker 9: You know, energy prices pushed prices up massively, and energy
Speaker 9: prices decline of course has a similar impact.
Speaker 14: So that's number one.
Speaker 9: Number two the bottlenecks that we have observed as a
Speaker 9: result of COVID in particular, and which lasted quite a
Speaker 9: lot of quite a long time, has gradually faded out,
Speaker 9: and that also had an impact, you know, more supply,
Speaker 9: more availability of goods.
Speaker 14: Second factor.
Speaker 9: The third factor is monetary policy, and it's undoubtedly been effective,
Speaker 9: if only to anchor inflation expectations, which we know is
Speaker 9: really important. So it has had an impact on inflation itself,
Speaker 9: but it has definitely had an impact on inflation expectations,
Speaker 9: which by all accounts and all surveys and all measurements
Speaker 9: have come down and are really now broadly onto that
Speaker 9: two percent medium term target that we have. I know
Speaker 9: it's obsessive two percent medium term targets, but yeah.
Speaker 14: That's what it is.
Speaker 11: Yeah, but at least it's auld guide the markets, right,
Speaker 11: I mean, it's.
Speaker 14: Good to be upsetsed.
Speaker 9: Well, if they don't know that that's what we are
Speaker 9: aiming for, then they need to have the head examined,
Speaker 9: that's for sure.
Speaker 11: And then again talk to me a little bit about
Speaker 11: wage bargaining. So again is that going to be on
Speaker 11: the upside and could that change you know, the timing
Speaker 11: of a possible work.
Speaker 9: Well, I'm glad you mentioned wages in general, wage bargaining
Speaker 9: in particular, and I'll go to that, but I want
Speaker 9: to tell you that there are three things that I'm
Speaker 9: watching carefully. Wage bargainings, profit margins, energy prices, and hopefully
Speaker 9: not but the coming back of supply bottom Miex. Those
Speaker 9: are four key components which could have a serious impact
Speaker 9: on the work that we're doing against inflation.
Speaker 14: But back to your wage question.
Speaker 9: Wages have gone up, but relatively slowly, so in prices
Speaker 9: have gone up earlier and faster than wages, so we
Speaker 9: are now facing a moment of not only some degree
Speaker 9: of alignment, but catch up as well. So employees have
Speaker 9: lost purchasing power in the course of twenty one twenty two,
Speaker 9: and there is now a catch up effect in the
Speaker 9: bargaining discussions that are taking place. We will know a
Speaker 9: lot more, probably in April May, because the numbers the
Speaker 9: bargaining agreements are being negotiated in the first quarter of
Speaker 9: every year, and the results come in after the agreements
Speaker 9: have been closed, so that gives us indication that we
Speaker 9: can corroborate and verify in the late spring, I would
Speaker 9: say of of twenty four, that will be a strong
Speaker 9: indication our wages slowly catching up, and that catch up
Speaker 9: process will take place over the course of two or
Speaker 9: three years possibly, or is there a very strong catch
Speaker 9: up coupled with an alignment with inflation, which would give
Speaker 9: me concern because while we're not seeing today's second round effect,
Speaker 9: that could be the result of this sort of twofold process.
Speaker 11: Are you confident there will be a cut this year
Speaker 11: in interest rates?
Speaker 14: Confident?
Speaker 9: I'm confident that short off another major shock, we have
Speaker 9: reach reached a peak. Okay, Now we have to stay
Speaker 9: restrictive for as long as necessary to make sure that
Speaker 9: we get to that state where we're all saying, okay,
Speaker 9: confident that it is at two percent medium term. I
Speaker 9: know some people argue that maybe we are overshooting, maybe
Speaker 9: we're taking risks. I think the risk would be worse
Speaker 9: if we went too fast and had.
Speaker 14: To come back to more tightening, because we would.
Speaker 9: Have wasted all the efforts that everybody has put in
Speaker 9: the last fifteen months. The US election, Yeah, let me
Speaker 9: have some coffee.
Speaker 14: How arid are you about the US election?
Speaker 9: It's for the American people to decide what they want
Speaker 9: with their politics, with their government.
Speaker 14: With their future.
Speaker 9: But obviously we are all concerned about it because the
Speaker 9: United States is the largest economy, the largest defense country
Speaker 9: in the world, and has been a beacon of democracy
Speaker 9: with all its upside and downside. But this is what
Speaker 9: they should be considering, and of course we cannot interfere
Speaker 9: with their choice. It's their choice and that's the beauty
Speaker 9: of democracy. But we have to be extremely attentive and anticipate,
Speaker 9: just as we do with inflation. You know, we do scenarios.
Speaker 9: What if, what if? Then what do we do? Because
Speaker 9: that's the real question. And you know where I sit
Speaker 9: now in Frankfurt, head of the ECB, I think that
Speaker 9: we have to be strong as Europeans and not assume
Speaker 9: that we can rely on whoever our friends are around
Speaker 9: the world, because these things change over the course of time,
Speaker 9: as we have seen.
Speaker 11: So what if Donald Trump gets into the White House,
Speaker 11: what are some of the policies that europe could be
Speaker 11: put in place to not be cut also between China
Speaker 11: and the US with Donald Trump and the White House.
Speaker 9: Well, for one, it has to be strong of its
Speaker 9: own and if I look at my own shop, because
Speaker 9: it matters to monetary policy transmission, I think that and
Speaker 9: you will hear that from others. We have to accelerate
Speaker 9: capital market union. We need financing in Europe. There is
Speaker 9: a lot of saving in Europe, and we have to
Speaker 9: make sure that those savings actually stay here to finance
Speaker 9: what needs to be financed, which is predominantly the climate transition,
Speaker 9: which is digitalization, which is enough industrialization conducted with a
Speaker 9: targeted approach so that we can on the key in
Speaker 9: the key areas be self sufficient.
Speaker 11: Are there policies that you would put in place now
Speaker 11: for Europe to I guess counter the US exceptionalism, which
Speaker 11: you know could be questioned going forward.
Speaker 9: I think I would accelerate many of the initiatives that
Speaker 9: have been taken, and I would encourage European leaders to
Speaker 9: put aside a little bit they respective idiosyncraty idiosyncratic differences
Speaker 9: to be more together because you know, it's a question
Speaker 9: of off size and scale, and Europe is a very
Speaker 9: large market, has a very sizable population, has capacity to innovate,
Speaker 9: has financing. It has to you know, be a little
Speaker 9: bit more cohesive together and forward looking.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on the
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