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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fan Duel
Speaker 1: here at the volume Happy Tuesday. Everybody. We are live
Speaker 1: on and don't forget if you're watching on YouTube or
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Speaker 1: you guys can get these shows. Maybe an extremely special
Speaker 1: guest today, a good friend of mine, mister Sam Vissini
Speaker 1: from the Athletic is going to be joining us to
Speaker 1: talk about the top tier of contenders in the league,
Speaker 1: the teams that we both think have real chances to
Speaker 1: win the title and then we're gonna do a little
Speaker 1: dive into the MVP discussion, the dreaded MVP discussion. You
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Speaker 1: lowest price guarantee. All right, let's talk some basketball. So
Speaker 1: I'm extremely excited to be bringing on Senior mba writer
Speaker 1: at The Athletic host of the Game Theory podcast, where
Speaker 1: I have been very blessed to appear as a guest
Speaker 1: a couple of times, someone who's one of my very
Speaker 1: favorite people in the world to talk basketball with, mister
Speaker 1: Sam Vissini. Sam, how are you doing man? Well? Jason,
Speaker 1: that's so nice because I feel the exact same way
Speaker 1: about you, and I'm so excited to do this. Genuinely,
Speaker 1: there are very few things that I feel less excited
Speaker 1: to talk about than this MVP discourse. But doing it
Speaker 1: with you, I feel like will be less frustrating than
Speaker 1: the general discourse that we see online. So I'm excited
Speaker 1: to do it. Yeah, I undred percent agree. I'm excited
Speaker 1: to dig into your process a little bit. I've got
Speaker 1: I've got a little bit of a system that I've
Speaker 1: been using. This will be the fourth year that I've
Speaker 1: used this system, and I'm really curious just to see
Speaker 1: your general approach to it. And then you and I
Speaker 1: have had an interesting conversation in the past about the
Speaker 1: role of advanced metrics in these discussions too that I
Speaker 1: want to get into, but I did want to start
Speaker 1: just kind of it kind of feels like we are
Speaker 1: that the league in general is starting to kind of
Speaker 1: settle into what it's gonna look like here as we
Speaker 1: head into the postseason. You're playing teams are kind of
Speaker 1: looking like the playing teams, and your top six are
Speaker 1: kind of looking like the top six. The only seed
Speaker 1: that I don't think is one hundred percent set is
Speaker 1: that sixth, sixth seed in the Western Conference, just because
Speaker 1: some of the uncertainty surrounding Golden State with their lack
Speaker 1: of wing depth. But what I wanted to do today
Speaker 1: is just kind of take a break and zoom out
Speaker 1: a little bit and talk a little bit about championship contenders.
Speaker 1: So I've used tears in the past where I include
Speaker 1: teams that have like super long shot chances. But what
Speaker 1: I wanted to do is I wanted to get your
Speaker 1: opinion on a list of teams that you think have
Speaker 1: a real chance to win a title. So what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna do is I'm gonna read you mine and if
Speaker 1: there's anybody on that list that you disagree with, I
Speaker 1: want you to tell me. And if there's anybody that's
Speaker 1: not on that list that you'd like to add, I'd
Speaker 1: like you to make that case. So the teams that
Speaker 1: I think have a real chance to win a championship
Speaker 1: right now out east are just Milwaukee, Boston in Philly.
Speaker 1: Is there anybody in that list that you would add
Speaker 1: or remove? So are we talking like super long shots
Speaker 1: or are we talking and just like like the calves
Speaker 1: of the number one net rating in the NBA right now,
Speaker 1: like I am concerned. I don't think they are nearly
Speaker 1: on the level of the top three that you just said.
Speaker 1: I do think that they cause real problems for Philadelphia
Speaker 1: in a potential playoffs series, because if we look at
Speaker 1: the teams that have beaten Philadelphia previously in playoffs series,
Speaker 1: is you look at the Atlanta Hawks specifically. It's the
Speaker 1: teams that can really kill you when you're playing drop
Speaker 1: coverage with Joel Embiid, and both Darius Garland and Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell have the capability to do that. Now, do I
Speaker 1: think the Calves have a great match up against Boston
Speaker 1: or Milwaukee. I do not, but they are number one
Speaker 1: in net rating. They have a better record than I
Speaker 1: think all but one team in the Western Conference. I
Speaker 1: at least will throw them in as a two or
Speaker 1: three percent chance. That's super interesting. So I know Calves
Speaker 1: fans feel this way. And there's really two things for
Speaker 1: me that are the earmining factor for me leaving them
Speaker 1: off that list. First of all, I do believe that
Speaker 1: having two small guards in your backcourt. Even though I
Speaker 1: think both Mitchell and Garland have defended better than we
Speaker 1: could have anticipated this year, I do want to give
Speaker 1: them that amount of credit. But as we know, the
Speaker 1: personnel shortcomings kind of supersed how you participate schematically when
Speaker 1: you get onto that stage. So I worry a little
Speaker 1: bit about their entry points in the backcourt, and then
Speaker 1: teams are really starting to sell out on the Mitchell
Speaker 1: Garland pick and roll, ignoring their off ball shooting. It's
Speaker 1: it's been just a Schmogese board of like, let's try
Speaker 1: Chetti Osman for a little while. Okay, well, Lamar Stevens
Speaker 1: is making some shots, Let's go with him for a
Speaker 1: little while. And So when I really think about the
Speaker 1: way teams are going to ignore Evan Mobiley and whoever
Speaker 1: it is that gets that three spot off ball, and
Speaker 1: Karis Laverte obviously gives you a better offensive option there,
Speaker 1: but he's not the same level of defensive player as
Speaker 1: Isaac Akoro or Lamar Stevens, who they've been using as
Speaker 1: primary point of attack guys in a lot of cases. So, like,
Speaker 1: I just worry about them being the tech spook type
Speaker 1: of team that will struggle in the playoffs as teams
Speaker 1: really exaggerate attacking their weaknesses. So is there anything that
Speaker 1: I said there that you would disagree with? No, I
Speaker 1: will say they have the number one defense in the
Speaker 1: NBA right now. I think their defense is less built
Speaker 1: toward being a great playoff team in many of the
Speaker 1: same ways that you just discussed. The guy that I
Speaker 1: can't figure out why they don't play as Dean Wade.
Speaker 1: Dean Wade gives them that shooting and that length defensively
Speaker 1: that I think is actually what they need, but they
Speaker 1: are not playing him, and I don't know that we
Speaker 1: can consider that a real potential outcome here, and that's
Speaker 1: not anymore, I don't think. So he's not on their
Speaker 1: injury report. So like you look through like the injury report,
Speaker 1: it says Jared Allen, doesn't say no Evan Mobile or
Speaker 1: doesn't say Dean Wade right now, So who knows? But
Speaker 1: I yeah, look, I agree with everything you're saying. It's
Speaker 1: just that they have the number one defense in the league.
Speaker 1: They have figured out a way to work around the guards.
Speaker 1: I do think their defense will be diminished in the
Speaker 1: playoffs because of those mismatch problems. I think Donovan has
Speaker 1: been very good defensively and is willingness to fight. But realistically,
Speaker 1: I think we're probably spending too much time on the
Speaker 1: Cavs world Cavs fans. Sam believes in you guys, so
Speaker 1: that that probably means even more than anything I have
Speaker 1: to say. So take that so out West and I
Speaker 1: know this is going to ruffle some feathers in Sacramento,
Speaker 1: in Memphis. But I only have five teams, the Denver Nuggets,
Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors, who I'm tempted
Speaker 1: to remove, and then the Los Angeles Lakers, and the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Clippers. Is there any part of that list
Speaker 1: that you would disagree with? I don't know that I
Speaker 1: would have anybody but the Suns and maybe the Nuggets
Speaker 1: and Lakers on that list. And I think the Clippers
Speaker 1: offense is unfortunately just been too stagnant. I think it's
Speaker 1: a little bit too easy to really muck them up
Speaker 1: just by playing tough man to man defense. If you
Speaker 1: have on ball defenders that can make life harder for
Speaker 1: Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. You're never going to stop them,
Speaker 1: but if you can make them five percent less efficient,
Speaker 1: it's really really hard for their offense. The Warriors, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's just hard to know without Andrew Wiggins right now.
Speaker 1: I don't think they can win a title without Andrew Wiggins.
Speaker 1: Given what we've seen, I think I think we can
Speaker 1: say that definitively. You know, Yeah, this is not a
Speaker 1: profile of a team that has been successful in the
Speaker 1: playoffs previously, and without Andrew Wiggins, it's just going to
Speaker 1: be I think, way too difficult for them to find
Speaker 1: the consistent offense and defense. That's what Wiggins brings. He
Speaker 1: brings them the two way play that they need on
Speaker 1: the wing that you know, Clay Thompson, as good as
Speaker 1: play is still even coming back from the multiple injuries,
Speaker 1: he's not always a two way player at this point
Speaker 1: in his career because of the injuries. So I need
Speaker 1: I think they need that on potential stopper in Wiggins.
Speaker 1: I think they need the offense that he provides as well,
Speaker 1: potentially in second units. I really think it's going to
Speaker 1: be tough without Wiggins for the Warriors. Yeah, it's funny
Speaker 1: because with Golden State, I'm in a similar position. They
Speaker 1: can hardly contend with good teams without Andrew Wiggins and
Speaker 1: Gary Peyton. It's just they were already close to the
Speaker 1: line of minimum allowable athleticism and height on the perimeter
Speaker 1: to contend when they were healthy. Last year, they overcame
Speaker 1: that just because they were so good everywhere else. But
Speaker 1: without those two, they dip below that line to that
Speaker 1: point of no return. The other thing, I'm glad you
Speaker 1: mentioned the Clippers piece because I viewed a weird kind
Speaker 1: of offensive approach with them too. But another thing that
Speaker 1: I've really noticed, especially in the last couple of months,
Speaker 1: is their lack of rim protection. And I know that
Speaker 1: you think of Zubak is the kind of guy who
Speaker 1: could do that at a decent level, and Plumbly's fine,
Speaker 1: but their numbers in protecting the paint have been atrocious
Speaker 1: over the course of the last month. And everything about
Speaker 1: NBA history tells us you need an elite defensive front
Speaker 1: court to win an NBA championship, and part of me
Speaker 1: wants to go Kawai and Paul George doesn't that kind
Speaker 1: of somewhat make up for that, But they just haven't
Speaker 1: been able to protect the paint. So that's been a
Speaker 1: big reason that I've been somewhat on the fence with them.
Speaker 1: Are you would you include Memphis and Sacramento in this
Speaker 1: equation or do you agree with me that they that
Speaker 1: they don't have a chance. I would not at this
Speaker 1: point include them Sacramento. I just think it's way too
Speaker 1: hard for them to defend. I think the teams are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to take advantage of them defensively. All
Speaker 1: due respects. I love the Kings. I love what they've
Speaker 1: done this season. I just don't see an NBA title
Speaker 1: level defense whenever they're going to be playing, for instance,
Speaker 1: potentially Phoenix, if Phoenix is full strength, I don't see
Speaker 1: how that's like not a four or five game series.
Speaker 1: Maybe the Kings get hot, Memphis is harder, Memphis is mips.
Speaker 1: This tricky just because of the Job Morant issue that's
Speaker 1: hanging over all of this. What's does he look like
Speaker 1: when he comes back? Is he the same uber, confident,
Speaker 1: attack oriented John Morant every single game in game out.
Speaker 1: We're recording this before he has actually returned. At this point,
Speaker 1: my read is I think they have real deficiencies even
Speaker 1: with John Morant, because Jah is their lead scorer, he
Speaker 1: is their key offensive option. He is not really a
Speaker 1: threat that teams are all that worried about beyond the
Speaker 1: three point line as they pull up threat and he
Speaker 1: is not really all that big of a threat that
Speaker 1: teams worry about in the mid range area. If you
Speaker 1: stop him from getting to that little floater that he has,
Speaker 1: I think because of that, it's a little bit easier
Speaker 1: to drop coverage them, And I think teams that can
Speaker 1: drop are going to have an easier time with them
Speaker 1: kind of managing their offensive game plans, and then defensively,
Speaker 1: Jab is a real guy that they have to work
Speaker 1: around on that end. You know, Desmond Bane, Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 1: those guys fight. But if you have to have Dylan
Speaker 1: Brooks out there, you're losing something offensively in terms of
Speaker 1: efficiency as well. So I as much as I love Memphis,
Speaker 1: I love the projects. I love what that front office
Speaker 1: has done to accumulate this group of talent. I think
Speaker 1: they're a year away at this point. Yeah, it's super
Speaker 1: interesting because Memphis crosses a couple of specific boxes that
Speaker 1: I value a great deal. I think their interior defense
Speaker 1: is outrageously good. Did you see that stat from the
Speaker 1: Warriors game the other day that they held them to
Speaker 1: twenty two for forty eight shooting in the paint? There?
Speaker 1: Jaren Jackson every month that I watched him, looks one
Speaker 1: step closer to becoming, you know, the next kind of
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis level two way power forward defensive prospect that
Speaker 1: we have in this league. And I love that about
Speaker 1: them as a foundational piece as a championship contender. I
Speaker 1: think the Dylan Brooks thing and I hate that guy
Speaker 1: because I think I think he's. I think he ever.
Speaker 1: I was out on him before he shoved the cameraman
Speaker 1: and that was kind of like the last thing. But
Speaker 1: the reality is is, like I also think he's. I
Speaker 1: think he's got a case to be considered the best
Speaker 1: perimeter defender in basketball right now. He's putting he's putting
Speaker 1: together a body count this year of stars, Like like
Speaker 1: even in that Kyrie game, I think he was eleven
Speaker 1: for twenty five. Like I think he did a number
Speaker 1: on Steph in those two games. He and look, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying I need I need larger sample size. I
Speaker 1: need to see more versatility to put him into that equation.
Speaker 1: Like I think what Andrew Wiggins did to Luca and
Speaker 1: to Jayson Tatum in the last two rounds of the
Speaker 1: playoffs is a more impressive case, and I would need
Speaker 1: to see something better than that on a playoff stage.
Speaker 1: But like, I don't think it's a coincidence that every
Speaker 1: star that runs into Dillon Brooks this year is having
Speaker 1: like the nightmarishly bad games. It's like that that to
Speaker 1: me is real. But outside of those two things, I
Speaker 1: think their offensive creation from the standpoint of dribble creation
Speaker 1: from the perimeter in their play finishing off ball like there,
Speaker 1: I think I think I looked it up the other day.
Speaker 1: They're a bottom five spot up team in the league
Speaker 1: by points per possession, which is ridicus. I think even Cleveland,
Speaker 1: who we talked about earlier as a team that was
Speaker 1: really ill equipped in that zone, was eighteenth, so significantly
Speaker 1: higher up. They're less than a point for less than
Speaker 1: a point per possession on spot up situations. So I
Speaker 1: just don't think they have nearly enough offensive skill to
Speaker 1: make their defense, to make their defense weaponizable in a
Speaker 1: way that can win a championship. You and I actually,
Speaker 1: in our two shows that we've done together, we've never
Speaker 1: actually talked Lakers, So I how did that happen? I
Speaker 1: don't know, man, I don't know. But like, so here's
Speaker 1: the thing. I if Lebron James can come back and
Speaker 1: get help, yeah, I am gonna be so tempted to
Speaker 1: pick them to come out of the West. When I
Speaker 1: think about the combination of Rock Fight winning just huge
Speaker 1: front court players and Lebron James and Anthony Day, Like,
Speaker 1: can you imagine the two of them battling with Harrison
Speaker 1: Barnes and Demonisi bonus for seven games. Like like, I
Speaker 1: think about the front court mismatches that they present. I
Speaker 1: think about the matchup versatility with the guy like Nicola Yokich.
Speaker 1: I think about the influx of offensive skill, which is
Speaker 1: not They're not the most offensively skilled team in the world,
Speaker 1: but they've added a significant amount of it. The ability
Speaker 1: to weaponize guys like Jared Vanderbilt in high, high pressure
Speaker 1: perimeter assignments that can that he can do. And I
Speaker 1: actually think that they've overachieved a little bit in this
Speaker 1: recent stretch because so many elements of their starting lineup
Speaker 1: don't make as much sense without Lebron, like Vanderbilts actually
Speaker 1: struggled for them quite a bit, I think in large
Speaker 1: part because without Lebron out there to kind of weaponize
Speaker 1: him as a cutter off the ball, his lack of
Speaker 1: his inability to shoot has been a problem. But I
Speaker 1: just think when I look at the Western Conference, a
Speaker 1: healthy Lakers team I think has a higher two way
Speaker 1: ceiling than everyone else. Do you think I'm too high
Speaker 1: on them or do you feel a similar way. I
Speaker 1: don't think they have a higher two way ceiling than Phoenix.
Speaker 1: I think they're probably number two, okay. And the reason
Speaker 1: I say that, Look, they're sixteen to one right now
Speaker 1: to win the West. Like that's a crazy number to me.
Speaker 1: I have no idea how that's a real thing this team.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought up the Vanderbilt piece of it,
Speaker 1: because he is a critical piece for them. He only
Speaker 1: works with Lebron is out there because if he, if
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt is out there, he is taking something off the
Speaker 1: court in terms of your creation ability and in terms
Speaker 1: of your offense. He's a great rim runner. He is
Speaker 1: a great offensive rebounding threat. He is someone that will
Speaker 1: attack the glass and will attack you with the point
Speaker 1: of attack defensively and will rebound to be an incredible
Speaker 1: help defender across the board. He's a really valuable piece
Speaker 1: for them. I just also think that they really need
Speaker 1: him on the court because Lebron James getting a little
Speaker 1: bit older. I think he'll lock in defensively in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: But he is someone that needs the possessions off You
Speaker 1: need someone to be able to guard the opposing player's
Speaker 1: primary or the opposing team's primary offensive weapon night in,
Speaker 1: night out. The other piece of this is what is
Speaker 1: gonna what is gonna What is the Russell gonna look
Speaker 1: like with Lebron James. I think it's gonna look really good. Assistently,
Speaker 1: I think that part of what the Angelo Russell has
Speaker 1: struggled with previously in his career is when he has
Speaker 1: to like manage that Okay, I'm the point guard. I
Speaker 1: need to get everybody involved. I need to be the
Speaker 1: key distributor for the team versus just going out there
Speaker 1: and playing. When he's had the ability to just go
Speaker 1: out there and play like he did earlier this season
Speaker 1: with Minnesota for that month leading up to the trade
Speaker 1: where they used Kylie Anderson to initiate sets, they use
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards to be able to initiate sets from time
Speaker 1: to time. He was just able to go out there
Speaker 1: and play and go and it was the best stretch
Speaker 1: of his career that we've seen since he played with Brooklyn, which, oh,
Speaker 1: by the way, in Brooklyn he played with Spencer Dinwiddie,
Speaker 1: another guy that could share the load from a creativity perspective.
Speaker 1: So when I look at what de Angelo Russell is
Speaker 1: going to look like with Lebron James, who will be
Speaker 1: able to handle that distribution load in a really tangible way.
Speaker 1: I think DeAngelo is gonna be able to go out
Speaker 1: there and play and it's gonna look really really good. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Him off ball is where I've been most impressed with
Speaker 1: him with the Lakers. He's got a lightning quick release
Speaker 1: on the catch and he doesn't have to jump very high.
Speaker 1: There was a specific play I want to say it
Speaker 1: was against the Rafters where Austin they ran like a
Speaker 1: quick interchange with Austin Reeves coming off of a ball
Speaker 1: screen with Anthony Davis, and he made a little pitch
Speaker 1: and Ogna Nobi made an excellent close out, but Dilo
Speaker 1: just caught it and just fluidly just went right up
Speaker 1: into a shot without even getting much of a jump,
Speaker 1: and he knocked it down. And Like, one of the
Speaker 1: big reasons why I'm enthusiastic about this particular fit is this,
Speaker 1: they do not need MVP two way Lebron Like, Yeah,
Speaker 1: like they don't. They Their pick and roll shot creation
Speaker 1: has actually been kind of excellent. I mean, I got
Speaker 1: in to a friendly discussion with Sam the other day
Speaker 1: because I was trying to tell him that I think
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves is just as good as Bogdan mcdonovitch. And
Speaker 1: then h that he had like a pretty big like, yeah,
Speaker 1: he might be better right now. He might be, but
Speaker 1: like he, I like, they're they're weirdly deep. Um like
Speaker 1: Troy Brown Junior is an interesting kind of perimeter defensive
Speaker 1: weapon that will slot back to the bench when Lebron
Speaker 1: James comes back. And I mean, obviously the center positions
Speaker 1: a little bit of an issue. They're looking at it
Speaker 1: right now, where Lebron's gonna have to have to be
Speaker 1: their backup center in the playoffs. I don't necessarily think
Speaker 1: that's an issue. It's just a lot to ask from Lebron.
Speaker 1: But in turn, they don't need him to run twenty
Speaker 1: pick and rolls a game and to post up twenty
Speaker 1: times a game. He can actually kind of functionally fit
Speaker 1: into this as a cog because of how many good
Speaker 1: pick and roll ball handlers they have. And I think
Speaker 1: Lebron in his career, I think a lot of times
Speaker 1: people look at him as a heliocentric guy. And don't,
Speaker 1: don't get me wrong, he can play that style. But
Speaker 1: I think Lebron's a lot more of a plug and
Speaker 1: play player than people give him credit for. I think
Speaker 1: that he knows how to move without the basketball. He
Speaker 1: can be a guy who can screen and roll to
Speaker 1: the basket. Like there was a random game last ye
Speaker 1: where he just gave Stanley Johnson the ball and was like, here,
Speaker 1: I'll be the screen setter. You run our offense down
Speaker 1: the stretch, and it like works, and they beat Gobert
Speaker 1: and the Jazz. Like Lebron is actually sneaky, kind of
Speaker 1: super versatile and can plug in all these holes. And
Speaker 1: when I think about the weaknesses in the team that
Speaker 1: I've watched play since the deadline, almost all of them
Speaker 1: are fixed by Lebron. A guy who can beat good
Speaker 1: perimeter defensive teams by drawing double teams in the post. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's Lebron. A guy that can help with contested rebound
Speaker 1: situations and give you basically a better option at the
Speaker 1: power forward spot in offensive situations where Vanderbilt's not working
Speaker 1: maybe at the end of a game. That's kind of
Speaker 1: your guy. Like, I think he fits so many specific weaknesses.
Speaker 1: And again in a Western conference where no one looks great,
Speaker 1: I think that they make sense as like a threat
Speaker 1: to me, but obviously so much is up in the air,
Speaker 1: and I mean the Nuggets. I do think that it's
Speaker 1: a bit of an excuse to just blame everything on
Speaker 1: a lack of urgency, but at the same time, like
Speaker 1: that's certainly part of it. You know, Like look, playing
Speaker 1: drop coverage right now, which is not what they will
Speaker 1: do in the playoffs, Like I can almost guarantee that,
Speaker 1: and it feels like they're doing it to keep Nicola
Speaker 1: Yokis fresh to me as much as anything, because you know,
Speaker 1: having to go out play flat play at the level
Speaker 1: of the screen every single time and then recover back
Speaker 1: to your man it does take a toll. It takes
Speaker 1: a toll on your body on a somewhat real level,
Speaker 1: having to do it night after night, possession after possession.
Speaker 1: Drop coverage is a little bit more stationary, which I
Speaker 1: think does help Yokich. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: I don't know if I trust them in either defensive structure.
Speaker 1: So that's a real problem with the Like honestly, like
Speaker 1: I would pick the Lakers if they have a healthy
Speaker 1: Lebron in a series against the Nuggets, because I think
Speaker 1: that they cause a lot of problems with their defensive
Speaker 1: ability against the Nuggets. You can throw Anthony Davis onto
Speaker 1: Nicola Yokich and then what it's Aaron Gordon on Lebron,
Speaker 1: and I think that that's just not going to go
Speaker 1: all that well for Aaron Gordon. Because Aaron Gordon, as
Speaker 1: good as he is and as close to being an
Speaker 1: All Stars he was, I think that he's a little
Speaker 1: bit better having being able to help help Yokich whenever
Speaker 1: he's in those tough defensive matchups against Anthony Davis. He's
Speaker 1: a good on ball defender, he's a better help defender
Speaker 1: in my opinion. Yeah, looking at this Lakers roster, their
Speaker 1: best five is what a very real Austin reeves. It
Speaker 1: seems like who looks awesome right now, looks confident. I've
Speaker 1: never seen that dude get flustered in his life is
Speaker 1: probably DeAngelo, Russell, Lebron, James Anthony Davis. And then when
Speaker 1: you have those four, you can kind of put out
Speaker 1: anyone at that point, right, You can put out Ruey
Speaker 1: If you want some like physicality and shop making, you
Speaker 1: can put out Jared Vanderbilt. If you want point of
Speaker 1: attack and rebounding, you can put out Malik Beasley. If
Speaker 1: you want even more floor spacing to attack, right, I
Speaker 1: don't know, I think this is all some Troy Brown
Speaker 1: Junior there too, like as he's definitely got Coach Ham's trust,
Speaker 1: and he's kind of, to me like the bridge between
Speaker 1: Jared and Ruey where he's got some of that point
Speaker 1: it's point of attack capability that Jared Vanderbilt has, but
Speaker 1: has that like Troy's like Legit on the wings a
Speaker 1: pretty reliable three point shooter over the course the last
Speaker 1: couple of months too, So I think you'll see some
Speaker 1: stuff there. Um, we're gonna move on to MVP, but
Speaker 1: it sounds to me like your lists is Bucks, Celtics, Sixers, Calves, Nuggets, Sons, Warriors, Lakers,
Speaker 1: So you're basically swapping out the Clippers for the Calves.
Speaker 1: It seems to me, is your list that's kind of it. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: spread on, We're pretty close. I like that, all right,
Speaker 1: So I think we would have it ordered differently, Like
Speaker 1: I think I would have the Sons that like number
Speaker 1: number three or four right now. But yeah, I'm terrified
Speaker 1: of the sun Sam, so I think they need to
Speaker 1: lose early. The later they get into the playoffs, the
Speaker 1: more I'm gonna be freaked out by their continuity. And
Speaker 1: I can pretty safely tell you right now that I'm
Speaker 1: probably going to pick them as my preseason title favorite
Speaker 1: next year. I'm terrified of them. I'm terrified a KD.
Speaker 1: I think Devin Booker is just like taller, more dependable
Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving, you know, like Chris Paul is the one
Speaker 1: kind of weird piece, and we'll see how he fits
Speaker 1: in all of that. DeAndre Eaton has no choice but
Speaker 1: to buy back in just because of the stakes of
Speaker 1: it all. And then this summer they're going to be
Speaker 1: able to boost all of that perimeter defense weakness that
Speaker 1: they have. So what I would like to do for
Speaker 1: this MVP piece is I'd like to quickly just rip
Speaker 1: off some stats, just some basic surface level stuff, but
Speaker 1: I doubt will spend too much time there, just because
Speaker 1: I think you and i'd both like to discuss it
Speaker 1: more from a basketball perspective, which is a big part
Speaker 1: of why I wanted to have this conversation with you,
Speaker 1: and I do want to hear like your reasoning in
Speaker 1: the way that you go about this. So in games played,
Speaker 1: Yoka is in first place sixty four and bad fifty eight,
Speaker 1: yanis fifty six. But in the games that yokis played
Speaker 1: forty five and nineteen, that's a seventy percent win percentage
Speaker 1: and Bad thirty nine and nineteen. That's a sixty seven
Speaker 1: percent win percentage, forty two and fourteen a seventy five
Speaker 1: percent win percentage, points per game and Bad thirty four
Speaker 1: Yannis thirty one, Yokas twenty five rebounds. Yannis and Yokas
Speaker 1: tied at twelve and Bead with ten assists, Yokis with ten,
Speaker 1: Yannis with six, although he's been getting a lot more
Speaker 1: assists lately. In Bad four point one efficiency, Yokis seventy
Speaker 1: percent true shooting and Bad sixty five percent true shooting,
Speaker 1: Yannis sixty percent true shooting. On off stats, the Nuggets
Speaker 1: are twenty seven points better with Yokis then without him,
Speaker 1: and Bad ten points Yannis seven points. One wrinkle there though,
Speaker 1: the Nuggets starters have only played two additional games together
Speaker 1: compared to that Jannis lineup, but they've played one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty more minutes together, or to excuse me, that's
Speaker 1: compared to the embiad lineup. So what that tells me
Speaker 1: is they're just keep They're not staggering nearly as much.
Speaker 1: They're keeping their starters together. Yea. So like, let me
Speaker 1: also add to that, the Nuggets backup center position. This
Speaker 1: year has been a revolving door of train wreck. I
Speaker 1: guess this is the best way to put it. And
Speaker 1: but I thought the Lakers made a huge mistake giving
Speaker 1: up Thomas Bryant. What was everybody thinking? I think the
Speaker 1: Nuggets made a huge mistake, you know, giving up three
Speaker 1: second rounders to acquire Thomas Bryant instead of getting better
Speaker 1: defensive wing help. So yeah, no, I just want to
Speaker 1: note for the record that the DeAndre Jordan Bones Highland
Speaker 1: pick and roll defensive combination was a train wreck. Zeke
Speaker 1: Naji is not ready for this, and Thomas Bryant has
Speaker 1: not been good enough well, And Thomas Bryant's interesting. He's
Speaker 1: so hot and cold. There are days where he has
Speaker 1: it going offensively and he's great. It's just it's just
Speaker 1: too inconsistent. So what I'd like to do, because there's
Speaker 1: a bunch of different elements we can get into, but
Speaker 1: what I'd like to start with is just what you're like,
Speaker 1: if if you were like, if you had an MVP
Speaker 1: vote you had to turn it in a week from today,
Speaker 1: what would your process look like. So my process is
Speaker 1: a little bit simpler than what I think other people's
Speaker 1: is you know, some people look at it who is
Speaker 1: the most valuable player to their team? Who is the
Speaker 1: guy bringing you know, if you took this guy off
Speaker 1: the team, what would that look like. I kind of
Speaker 1: look at it is who is the best player in
Speaker 1: the league that I try to keep it as simple
Speaker 1: as possible. Who do I think is providing the most
Speaker 1: value to their team in the NBA. That's a different
Speaker 1: version of value than what I think other voters look
Speaker 1: at it. And I don't really have a problem with
Speaker 1: other voters looking at it in terms of like, oh,
Speaker 1: like if you take this person off the team, X, Y,
Speaker 1: and Z happens, right. I just look at it as
Speaker 1: who is bringing the most value to a basketball court
Speaker 1: night in, night out, every single game. That is such
Speaker 1: a simplistic process I would imagine in comparison to what
Speaker 1: many other voters have. And I'm not a voter, so
Speaker 1: I shouldn't say any other voters what voters across the
Speaker 1: league seem to have like pretzeled themselves into. It feels
Speaker 1: like when I talk to people about this, just I
Speaker 1: don't know, and like, here's the question I would ask you,
Speaker 1: do you consider the idea of the regular season and
Speaker 1: the playoffs being different, they are different beasts in terms
Speaker 1: of the way basketball's played in those moments. Are you
Speaker 1: purely someone that looks at this from a twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two twenty twenty three season that's all that matters, point blank?
Speaker 1: Or do you consider the fact that we've seen these
Speaker 1: guys playing in the biggest moments before. This is something
Speaker 1: that matters, Like this is an input that matters in
Speaker 1: these conversations about who the best dude in the league is.
Speaker 1: So I love your approach because to me, simplicity opens
Speaker 1: the door for discretion, and to me, the game of
Speaker 1: basketball is way too complicated. And we get into this
Speaker 1: in a little bit with the dance metrics, but it's
Speaker 1: way too complicated for any measure, for any stat for
Speaker 1: even just wins losses, Like we could talk about supporting casts,
Speaker 1: we could talk about all these different things, but at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, they are so all three
Speaker 1: of the guys that I considered here, they're in the
Speaker 1: top tier, which I'm sure you have the same top three,
Speaker 1: which is yannest Yo Kitchen embied. All three of these
Speaker 1: guys have completely different ways that they impact basketball games
Speaker 1: like it could not be any further from each other
Speaker 1: even though they play similar positions, And so from that standpoint,
Speaker 1: I think that keeping it vague allows you to kind
Speaker 1: of approach the conversation from a bunch of different perspectives.
Speaker 1: And as far as the playoffs, like, I think you
Speaker 1: have to factor that into a certain extent. And I
Speaker 1: understand the idea of, um, you know, it being a
Speaker 1: regular season award, and I appreciate that, and when I
Speaker 1: go over my system it will make some sense to
Speaker 1: you where I know, I know, But like, here's the thing,
Speaker 1: why do we do this, Sam, Why do we play
Speaker 1: the eighty two games? We do it as part of
Speaker 1: a journey that ends in the Larry O'Brien Trophy. You
Speaker 1: can pretend like that doesn't matter, but it does. And yes,
Speaker 1: it is like two different seasons. Yes it's the eighty
Speaker 1: two and then we head into this two month playoff
Speaker 1: thing and the basketball gets very different. And I absolutely
Speaker 1: understand all of that, but at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: it's all the same journey from training camp to the
Speaker 1: Larry O'Brien Trophy, and so not factoring in the fact
Speaker 1: that playoff success or at least the way that your
Speaker 1: game translates to the postseason, as if that doesn't matter
Speaker 1: at all in this discussion, I think is silly. And
Speaker 1: so the way I account for that is I have
Speaker 1: your criteria as one of three parts. So I have
Speaker 1: who's the best player in the league as one of
Speaker 1: the three parts. Then I have who is the best
Speaker 1: player on the best team. This is where we bring
Speaker 1: in team success with him this regular season. And then
Speaker 1: the third faction of this is who is most valuable
Speaker 1: to their team. That's where I'm looking at, like the
Speaker 1: way that team operates, and when you remove that player
Speaker 1: from the equation, the way things change. And so for
Speaker 1: me like it if I were to ask you to
Speaker 1: rank those three as who is the best basketball player?
Speaker 1: How would you rank them? Ye? Honest? One, Mbat two,
Speaker 1: Yokas three. I had the exact same list, and I
Speaker 1: had to flip and beat and Yoki's just over these
Speaker 1: last couple of months. I just the run that Embat
Speaker 1: has been on, as he's been a better basketball player
Speaker 1: than Yokis now for a little while, and there's no
Speaker 1: playoff leeway to throw Yokich to be like he deserves
Speaker 1: the benefit of the doubt, which I'm usually a big
Speaker 1: fan of, but I viewed their playoffs resumes is pretty similar. Like,
Speaker 1: I think they've each won four series if I remember correctly,
Speaker 1: so neither of them has this earth shattering playoff resume.
Speaker 1: So to me, that's a pretty straightforward list. Who would
Speaker 1: you say is the best player on the best team
Speaker 1: in the league. I think it would be Yannis Embiid
Speaker 1: and Yokis at this point, just give him the records. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I put Janis one Yokis too, based on that
Speaker 1: win percentage piece, Like Embiad's only one sixty seven percent
Speaker 1: of the games he's played in, and I think he
Speaker 1: actually has a better I actually think he has a
Speaker 1: better supporting cast. Let's do that next. Actually, who do
Speaker 1: you think has the best supporting cast out of that group?
Speaker 1: If you were ranking them, I would say Embiad has
Speaker 1: the best supporting cast. You're playing with James Harden, and
Speaker 1: then you have a loaded deep team with Tobias Harris
Speaker 1: who's had a really underrated season this year. You have
Speaker 1: Tyre Smaxe who's average any points a game. I think
Speaker 1: it's like unequivocally Joel Embiid as the best. And then
Speaker 1: I think you can parse between the Bucks and the
Speaker 1: Nuggets I would say that the Nuggets have probably had
Speaker 1: a better supporting cast around Yokich this season, just given
Speaker 1: that Chris Middleton has missed a lot of time has
Speaker 1: been coming back from injury. Now, Brook Lopez and Drew
Speaker 1: Holiday have been probably better than anybody on the Nuggets,
Speaker 1: right I think. So, I don't know, Maybe it is
Speaker 1: Yokich at three in this conversation the more I think
Speaker 1: about it, but Yokich has the four guys around him
Speaker 1: that are absolutely terrific. I would say that Jannis has
Speaker 1: had two guys that have just been like, absolutely terrific.
Speaker 1: I'd like, if I was ranking the eight players that
Speaker 1: have started the most games with Jannis and with Yokich,
Speaker 1: I would have Drew Holiday and Brook Lopez one and two.
Speaker 1: I would have the Nuggets guys in the next four spots,
Speaker 1: and then I would have the Bucks guys in the
Speaker 1: last two spots. How do you parse through that? I
Speaker 1: think that you can and make different determinations. That's what's
Speaker 1: so interesting, because so I had Bucks one and Sixers two.
Speaker 1: Although I agree like the Sixers offensive talent is like
Speaker 1: through the roofs? Did you know that they're they're the
Speaker 1: best spot up team? In the league. They constantly have
Speaker 1: shake Shake Miltoner Georgis Niang on that weak side wing
Speaker 1: as just this deadly like if they if you help
Speaker 1: off that guy, it's going in. And they're like killing
Speaker 1: teams in fourth quarters loading up on those Harden and
Speaker 1: Bead actions by those kickouts to those weak side wing
Speaker 1: wing shooters. They they have a boatload of talent. One.
Speaker 1: I actually, up until the Phoenix Suns trade, I thought
Speaker 1: that uh Maxi, Harris and Bead Harden was the most
Speaker 1: talented top four in the league up up until now
Speaker 1: you have the Chris Paul Booker at eight and Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant lineup um. But I would say it's close between
Speaker 1: those two between the Bucks and Sixers. To me, with
Speaker 1: the Bucks, it's pretty simple one of the best point
Speaker 1: of attack defenders in the league and the best ring
Speaker 1: protector in the league. So like, the two of those
Speaker 1: guys together just kind of foundationally allow them to win
Speaker 1: a lot about I think that's why they've been a
Speaker 1: functional basketball team without Janis for most of the season.
Speaker 1: And I have the Nuggets third. But you you said
Speaker 1: this perfectly, and I'm so glad you did because it's
Speaker 1: so underrated yes, there are players that in their starting
Speaker 1: lineup that don't necessarily have the same level of recognition
Speaker 1: around the league, but you could not construct a better
Speaker 1: lineup of players to compliment Nicola. Yokis your power forward.
Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon is the type of player that in the
Speaker 1: vacuum is not super valuable, but what he does as
Speaker 1: a forward deck can kind of operate as a center
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways offensively in terms of what
Speaker 1: he can do in the dunker spot to quit, catch
Speaker 1: and finish around the rim as a lob threat while
Speaker 1: still being a transition threat and a guy that can
Speaker 1: occasionally knock down a shot. Contavious called well Pope, I
Speaker 1: think is literally one of the best role player two
Speaker 1: guards in the league, and I'm still sad that he's
Speaker 1: not on the Lakers, and he's so perfect. He's so
Speaker 1: perfect with Yokis because of what he can do transition
Speaker 1: and Yoki is an outlet passer, and I think kcp's
Speaker 1: one of the best transition guards in the league as
Speaker 1: a movement shooter and a guy that can finish in
Speaker 1: transition with those long steps that he takes to the basket.
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray is slumping a little bit right now. But
Speaker 1: he is your textbook dribble handoff ball screen guard that
Speaker 1: perfectly compliments Yokich and Michael Porter Junior is arguably the
Speaker 1: most deadly weak side shooter in the league. A last
Speaker 1: I checked, which was like a two or three weeks ago,
Speaker 1: he was averaging one point three points per spot up
Speaker 1: possession and him and like, so yeah, it's not necessarily
Speaker 1: in terms of ranking players around the league the most
Speaker 1: talented core ever, but it is a group of players
Speaker 1: that very well compliments what Yokich does. And yes, there
Speaker 1: bench sucks, but so does Phillies and so like it's so,
Speaker 1: you know, it's one of those things where I don't
Speaker 1: look at I don't really see supporting cast as much
Speaker 1: of a factor in this equation for either of the
Speaker 1: three guys. I agree with you, I will say as well,
Speaker 1: to bring up your point about the Bucks, I think
Speaker 1: with Chris Middleton, the way he's playing, I think over
Speaker 1: his last fifteen games has averaged something like seventeen eighteen points,
Speaker 1: six assists, five rebounds. I think he shoot being like
Speaker 1: forty eight thirty seven eighty seven or something like that.
Speaker 1: He's basically back to being pretty close. He's been a
Speaker 1: little bit more of a facilitator than what we've seen
Speaker 1: from him in the past. But he's basically back to
Speaker 1: being pretty close to what we've seen from Chris Middleton previously,
Speaker 1: and I think that that just elevates the Bucks even
Speaker 1: further within their task conversation, they're ridiculously good. That is
Speaker 1: the best top four in the league outside of maybe
Speaker 1: Phoenix when we see them more. I think Janis Middleton,
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez, Drew Holliday, that's the best four in the league,
Speaker 1: depending on what Phoenix looks like. But Middleton has played
Speaker 1: you know what, fifteen games fully healthy this year, so
Speaker 1: I think I think the Middleton thing has been part
Speaker 1: of why I haven't considered those four. But that's a
Speaker 1: really interesting case, especially when you factor in two way
Speaker 1: play because Tyree Saxin, James Harden or not good defensive guards.
Speaker 1: Chris Paul is not a good defensive guard anymore. He's
Speaker 1: actually become a target. Deandreton is one of my least
Speaker 1: favorite defensive centers in the league. So we're running a
Speaker 1: little bit out of time. So I want you to
Speaker 1: I want you to make the case for who you
Speaker 1: chose FRIMVP and why I went with the honest and
Speaker 1: I think that the I think that as we've gone
Speaker 1: through this process, right, as we've explained all of the
Speaker 1: different criteria, that I think you've had me answer questions
Speaker 1: regarding who is the best player, who is the best
Speaker 1: player on the best team, who is the most valuable player,
Speaker 1: I think across the board, outside of maybe value to team,
Speaker 1: I think it's Jannis. And I know that his efficiency
Speaker 1: numbers are not quite as good as what Nicola Yokichs are,
Speaker 1: and I guess we didn't really have time to have
Speaker 1: the metrics conversation. But if you look at what he
Speaker 1: was tasked with doing throughout the year as a shot creator,
Speaker 1: given the roster that was around him, Brook Lopez as
Speaker 1: not really a shot creator, more of a spot up
Speaker 1: three point thread at this point in his career, can
Speaker 1: offensive rebound, can do some things on the block, more
Speaker 1: of just a spot up guy at this point. Drew
Speaker 1: Holliday inconsistent as a creator for a point guard. I
Speaker 1: think is reasonable to say there are games where he
Speaker 1: is hot and he is just very almost impossible to
Speaker 1: stop when he has the three point shot going. He
Speaker 1: takes so many tough shots. Why does he take so
Speaker 1: many difficult shots. I don't understand. Every shot for him
Speaker 1: is like a drifting fadeaway. Yeah, it really is. So
Speaker 1: Jannis is tasked with a more difficult responsibility, I think
Speaker 1: within the ecosystem of Milwaukee's offense throughout a majority of
Speaker 1: the season. Now that Middleton is back, now that Joe
Speaker 1: Ingles is actually firing in like a fairly real way,
Speaker 1: he has really helped. They're passing their playmaking their ball
Speaker 1: movement across the perimeter. Middleton has also really helped that,
Speaker 1: and he's also given them a bailout option as a
Speaker 1: mid rain shot creator late in the shot clock they
Speaker 1: really needed. But for a majority of the season, Jannis
Speaker 1: did not have that, which is why the efficiency numbers
Speaker 1: are a little bit lower for him than they are
Speaker 1: for other players in this conversation, I think that when
Speaker 1: you combine the fact that Jannis is the most dominant
Speaker 1: player in the league just in terms of being able
Speaker 1: to create his own shot, going to the basket and
Speaker 1: finishing at just such an elite level he can do
Speaker 1: it anytime, any point. He's averaging what you mentioned, thirty
Speaker 1: one points per game, something like twelve rebounds and six
Speaker 1: assists in that Ballpark. The numbers are great. On top
Speaker 1: of it, I do think he is the best defensive
Speaker 1: player of this trio. I have Joel Embiad at number two.
Speaker 1: I think Joel Embiid in Yannis are very much like
Speaker 1: almost one A and one B. For me, I think
Speaker 1: they're super close. I have Yoki at third. At this point,
Speaker 1: when we did this conversation on my show at mid season,
Speaker 1: we also did not have Yokich at number one. We
Speaker 1: had Kevin Durant at midseason number one right man, Kevin Durant.
Speaker 1: I forgot about that. Yeah, Kevin Durant was in the
Speaker 1: midst of lead the Brooklyn Nets to like a twenty
Speaker 1: eight and twelve record or whatever it was, and it
Speaker 1: was unbelievable in those first games that he played. Was
Speaker 1: well deserving. I went with Mbiad here. I think the
Speaker 1: fact that Phillis defense is genuinely terrific this season. He
Speaker 1: is probably the second most dominant shot creator in the
Speaker 1: league behind Jannis, and I think you could make a
Speaker 1: case that he is the most dominant scorer in the
Speaker 1: league if you really wanted to the thing with the
Speaker 1: honest is I trust Yannis as a pastor decision maker
Speaker 1: a little bit more. I like Yannis's defense a little
Speaker 1: bit better. And again, as you said, Milwaukee is the
Speaker 1: best team in the league. When Jannis and Teacupo plays,
Speaker 1: that is it. That is it, point blank. I went
Speaker 1: with the Honest's MVP seventy five percent of their games man,
Speaker 1: so it was it was pretty basic for me. Best
Speaker 1: player in the league, I went Jannis and bok best
Speaker 1: player on the best team, I went Jannis, Yokich, Embiid
Speaker 1: who is the most valuable to their team? I went Yokich, Inmbi, Jannis,
Speaker 1: And if you kind of break those down, where place
Speaker 1: is worth three points, second is worth two, third is
Speaker 1: worth one. I had seven points for Yannis, Yoki with six,
Speaker 1: and Embad with five, And you know, I try to
Speaker 1: stick to that criteria as best as I can. And
Speaker 1: it's funny, is I came into this process when I
Speaker 1: sat down with my coffee this morning, I was like,
Speaker 1: I expect to pick him Bead. I really did think that, Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's I've been so high on him. And and when
Speaker 1: I break it down based on the rules that I
Speaker 1: try to go by, I had Yannis one, Yokich two,
Speaker 1: and inb three. So I think the one place we
Speaker 1: agree disagrees we flopped Yokichen Embiid, but I think all
Speaker 1: three are still incredibly close, and it is it has
Speaker 1: been a highly entertaining race, so we do have to go.
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, Sam, I really want to get into
Speaker 1: this advanced metrics conversation with you. The problem is is
Speaker 1: I know us and we'll spend twenty minutes on it.
Speaker 1: So what we need to do is we need to
Speaker 1: We'll either we'll either do it at a later date
Speaker 1: this season or we'll hit it this offseason because it's
Speaker 1: definitely something that I want to spend some time talking about.
Speaker 1: But I am I have so much fun talking basketball
Speaker 1: with you. I'm so thankful that you took the time
Speaker 1: to come on the show today, and I look forward
Speaker 1: to talking with you again soon anytime. You are one
Speaker 1: of the people that pushes me to be better at
Speaker 1: this with how detail oriented you are, and I am
Speaker 1: always happy to talk basketball with you. This has been
Speaker 1: terrific anytime, I'm more than happy to come on. Do
Speaker 1: you need to plug anything? Game three podcasts, Go listen
Speaker 1: to the podcast that I have. Jason was on a
Speaker 1: week ago. We talked about rising stars across the NBA
Speaker 1: guys that we think are going to be All Stars
Speaker 1: go to the Athletic as well. Yeah, just go subscribe
Speaker 1: to that. We'll be able to find my work. The
Speaker 1: volume