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Speaker 1: Pushkin too quick. No, it's perfect push kit.

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Speaker 2: Stop you got it. Hey, it's Jacob, Robert and I

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Speaker 2: recently did a live show with our friends from the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcast Everybody's Business. The show is about prediction markets,

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Speaker 2: and the host of Everybody's Business talked about what's been

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Speaker 2: happening in prediction markets in the last few years, while

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Speaker 2: Robert and I talked about what's been happening in prediction

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Speaker 2: markets for the last five hundred years. It was a

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Speaker 2: fun show. I learned a lot making it, and we're

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Speaker 2: going to play for you now.

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Speaker 1: I hope you like it.

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Speaker 3: This is Everybody's Business from Bloomberg BusinessWeek. I'm Stacey Mannock Smith.

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Speaker 1: I'm Max Chafkin, and this is Business History, a show

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Speaker 1: about the history of business. I'm Jacob Goldstein and I'm

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Speaker 1: Robert Smith.

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Speaker 3: So actually this is a podcast mashup between Everybody's Business

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Speaker 3: and Business History. Everybody's Business History.

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Speaker 4: Clever see what you did there?

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Speaker 5: I see? Do you see what I did there?

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Speaker 3: And today we're going to be talking about the world

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Speaker 3: of prediction markets.

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Speaker 5: This is poly market and call sheet.

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Speaker 3: These are places where you can bet on how many

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Speaker 3: inches it is going to snow in Brooklyn today, or

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Speaker 3: whether we are going to attack Iran. Everything and anything

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Speaker 3: we can bet on it's These markets are now worth

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Speaker 3: more than one hundred billion dollars a year.

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Speaker 5: They're growing all the time.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I figured just for those people who have been

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Speaker 6: following this in the pages of the Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 6: or Bloomberg, just want to lay it out quickly. Prediction markets.

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Speaker 6: You've probably seen them most with politics. They're two big companies.

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Speaker 6: Stacey just mentioned them, Calshi, Polymarket. You go on a

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Speaker 6: prediction market and you'll see essentially a price like a

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Speaker 6: say ten cents for AOC to be the DEM nominee.

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Speaker 6: And what that means is that if you put ten

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Speaker 6: cents down and AOC becomes the DEM nominee, then you

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Speaker 6: get a dollar, and if she doesn't, you get zero,

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Speaker 6: and you can bet on everything pretty much anything under

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Speaker 6: the sun. And we wanted to kind of give people

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Speaker 6: a visceral sense of this via market, our own sort

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Speaker 6: of prediction market. So this is a financial opportunity for

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Speaker 6: everyone in the room. It's gonna require you to look

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Speaker 6: around the room and ask yourself, how's this talk going

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Speaker 6: to go.

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Speaker 1: People are starting to laugh as they see the official lage.

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Speaker 6: Okay, okay, okay, let me read the terms. The terms

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Speaker 6: of this market are will at least ten percent of

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Speaker 6: the audience leave the room before the end of the show. So,

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Speaker 6: just to be clear, betting yes is betting. I think

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Speaker 6: you guys on a dud. Right, If they bet yes,

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Speaker 6: they're betting that more than ten percent are going to leak.

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Speaker 3: Is necessarily a dud because they're also like overlapping segments.

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Speaker 3: So there could be another panel that people feel.

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Speaker 6: Like they're even stronger panel yes, also bathroom right, right,

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Speaker 6: All factors are possible. There's also the prospect of insider trading,

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Speaker 6: which we will get to.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you could bet yes and then walk out.

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Speaker 5: We could all leave.

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Speaker 6: Okay, I'm gonna get us back on track, and I

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Speaker 6: just want to give people a sense of how crazy

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Speaker 6: this gets. So Stacy mentioned a couple of markets. Whether

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Speaker 6: there's politics, they're also these things called mentioned markets. And Stacy,

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Speaker 6: you are a big fan of the Federal Reserve. Do

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Speaker 6: you love the Federal People listen to the show know this,

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Speaker 6: it's kind of it's endearing, strange. Minetary policy is exciting,

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Speaker 6: and there is a prediction market.

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Speaker 1: There are prediction.

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Speaker 6: Markets as you know, Stacy every time Jerome Powell gives

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Speaker 6: a speech, and we wrote about one of these in

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Speaker 6: the latest issue of Business Week.

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Speaker 1: This is the lead of the story.

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Speaker 6: But so basically, this is Jerome Powell's last press conference.

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Speaker 6: You could bet on forty four words. So is he

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Speaker 6: going to say the phrase good afternoon? That that's a gimme?

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Speaker 5: But he always says good always, easiest.

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Speaker 1: One cent you'll ever make.

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Speaker 6: But the thing that was kind of crazy about this

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Speaker 6: market is as the press conference goes on, the odds change.

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Speaker 6: You just saw that with our on market right as

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Speaker 6: people are entering the odds shift. And so during the

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Speaker 6: last press conference, there was a question of the word renovation.

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Speaker 6: Would Jerome Powell mention renovation? Remember people who've been following

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Speaker 6: this probably remember that there's a big controversy over the

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Speaker 6: renovation of the FED building. Donald Trump's remad about it.

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Speaker 6: And let me just play what happened.

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Speaker 7: You know, technological developments that raise potential output, some kind

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Speaker 7: of technological renovation, you know revolution?

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Speaker 1: Did he say renovation? Insane? Am I right?

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Speaker 6: It's like the equivalent of a Hail Mary at the

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Speaker 6: when you're you know, the game is almost over.

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Speaker 4: We need a replay.

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Speaker 6: Traders on Discord and on Twitter went absolutely berserk over this.

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Speaker 6: You know the quotes, and you can read these in

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Speaker 6: the Business Week story the most Insane market I've ever traded.

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Speaker 6: Somebody else wrote investigate Powell in all caps, suggesting that

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Speaker 6: perhaps Jerome Pal had done this on the art pollymarket bet.

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Speaker 6: But I do think say this kind of raises a question,

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Speaker 6: which is like is this valuable?

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Speaker 3: Like what is the point of the yes, Like what

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Speaker 3: is the economic value of these? Obviously, if you are

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Speaker 3: betting on Jerome palasing renovation, you have personal value, but

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Speaker 3: what about for the economy?

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Speaker 6: Okay, so let me give you the perspective of the

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Speaker 6: founder of Calshi, who's this is one of the two

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Speaker 6: big companies. Let's just listen to Tarikman's or try to

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Speaker 6: explain why this matters, like why this is important beyond

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Speaker 6: just an exciting opportunity for gamblers.

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Speaker 8: The long term vision is to financialize everything and create

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Speaker 8: a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion. And

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Speaker 8: I think if you do build a general on purpose

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Speaker 8: exchange that can resolve differences of opinions on anything like

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Speaker 8: the time is quite massive.

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Speaker 6: I think that might be the least relatable sentiment I've

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Speaker 6: ever heard. We're going to financialize everything.

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Speaker 1: Do you like finance? What if everything was finance?

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Speaker 6: That's essentially what they're saying, and it sounds kind of crazy,

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Speaker 6: but the argument is basically that this would be a

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Speaker 6: way to sort of hedge your risk in areas or

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Speaker 6: it might be hard to so one example the Calshi

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Speaker 6: founders give is flood insurance. Like maybe instead of buying

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Speaker 6: flood insurance, or if the flood insurance were too expensive,

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Speaker 6: you could buy a contract on the weather, you could

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Speaker 6: buy a contract on rain storms.

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Speaker 1: And it sort of is.

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Speaker 6: It's the way that like Wall Street hedge funds, you know,

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Speaker 6: use futures and stuff like that, but it would be

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Speaker 6: for all of us. And I want to say, as

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Speaker 6: crazy as these sounds, anyone who bets on sports knows

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Speaker 6: this phenomenon because there's this concept of emotional hedging, where

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Speaker 6: you bet against the team you're rooting for serve as

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Speaker 6: a way to soften the blow, Like my team loses,

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Speaker 6: but you know, but I make.

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Speaker 1: A little money if I lose.

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Speaker 5: I win.

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Speaker 6: It feels kind of wrong, though, Like here, let me

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Speaker 6: just give you one last prediction market that's on polymarket

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Speaker 6: right now, will Jesus Christ return before twenty twenty seven?

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Speaker 5: It's gone up sharply since February.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's also gone down. What has happened in the

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Speaker 4: last month or so?

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Speaker 1: And who is betting on this?

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Speaker 6: Anyway, there's a lot if he with the capital age returns.

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Speaker 6: Do we think that poly market's gonna pay?

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Speaker 1: Oh, that's a good There might be bigger.

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Speaker 4: Problems that happen or opportunities, depending on how you've lived

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Speaker 4: your life.

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Speaker 2: And we should say for people listening, it's a three

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Speaker 2: percent chance, which seems pretty high.

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Speaker 6: Right, it's been two thousand years. We'll talk about this

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Speaker 6: more stacy. But to me, like this just kind of

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Speaker 6: feels wrong. I'm not specifically talking about the Jesus market,

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Speaker 6: although this does feel wrong to me, but the whole thing,

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Speaker 6: the whole idea of financializing everything.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yes, these markets are incredibly problematic, but.

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Speaker 5: I kind of like them.

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Speaker 1: Okay, here's why I like them.

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Speaker 3: So I really hate gambling. I don't like taking risks,

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Speaker 3: and I don't like trying my luck.

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Speaker 5: I like homework. I like, you know, you do the

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Speaker 5: work and you get the payoff.

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Speaker 3: That makes sense to me. That feels fair to me.

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Speaker 3: These are the markets.

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Speaker 5: This is what I like.

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Speaker 3: I like things where I like homework oriented things. I mean,

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Speaker 3: and homework does not help you in gambling. This all

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Speaker 3: tracks like if you go to a roulette table and

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Speaker 3: you know more about roulette and the history of roulette

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Speaker 3: and the roulette wheel than anybody in history, it's not

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Speaker 3: going to help you win at roulette.

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Speaker 5: Right in those cases, like the casino, it's got an edge.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you understand gambling, you don't go into the

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Speaker 4: casino exactly.

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Speaker 3: And I would argue in investing, there's kind of similar

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Speaker 3: things going on because you know these big investment houses

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Speaker 3: and hedge funds, they have all this money and they

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Speaker 3: have access to all this information that you and I

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Speaker 3: have no access to.

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Speaker 5: Like they will look at satellite.

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Speaker 3: Photos of Walmart's parking lot and they will see how

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Speaker 3: many trucks are going in and out, and they will

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Speaker 3: estimate Walmart's sales, and they will figure out Walmart's profits,

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Speaker 3: and then they will place a bet on Walmart share price.

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Speaker 3: You and I don't have access to that information. It

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Speaker 3: feels very unfair to me, and I don't like it.

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Speaker 5: It just feels like.

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Speaker 3: In these cases, the house has the edge and homework

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Speaker 3: is for suckers, and I don't like it, but this

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Speaker 3: is not true on poly Market and Calshie. On poly

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Speaker 3: Market and Calshie, if you do your homework, you can

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Speaker 3: get the edge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: We a couple of months ago on the show interviewed

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Speaker 6: this big poly market trader. I think we called him

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Speaker 6: the polymarket whale. His name is his pseudonym is Domer.

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Speaker 6: We know his name, but he likes to be anonymous

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Speaker 6: because I think partly because these markets are in sort

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Speaker 6: of a.

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Speaker 1: Legal gray area.

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Speaker 6: But anyway, Domer had bet Stacy's something like four hundred

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Speaker 6: million dollars on Polly Market. When we talked to him,

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Speaker 6: he had a big money bet on Taylor Swift album sales.

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Speaker 6: He had one million riding on the question of how

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Speaker 6: many albums Taylor Swift would sell.

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Speaker 3: Yes, And we asked Domer, like, was there a bet

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Speaker 3: that did it? How did you get on on these

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Speaker 3: markets because this is his job now. He had been

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Speaker 3: a professional poker player, but he had left the world

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Speaker 3: of professional poker for this market. And he said, yeah,

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Speaker 3: there was this bet that did it. It was back

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight, so it was John McCain

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Speaker 3: versus Barack Obama. We knew that, but they hadn't picked

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Speaker 3: their running mates yet, and everyone was wondering, especially who's

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Speaker 3: John McCain going to pick. People thought maybe Mitt Romney,

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Speaker 3: but they weren't sure. And there was this old betting market,

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Speaker 3: this old version of a betting market was not polymarket

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Speaker 3: or Calci that went up and Domer thought, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to bet on this, and I wonder if I can

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Speaker 3: get an edge, And here's what he told us.

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Speaker 7: The date for John McCain picking had been announced, and

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Speaker 7: also the location was a small town in Ohio, which

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Speaker 7: is obviously a swing state. And then it's like, okay,

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Speaker 7: like what are the logistics of it? And so we

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Speaker 7: looked at the map and we're like, okay, where's the

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Speaker 7: nearest airport? And so we found the nearest airport, and

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Speaker 7: we were looking at the flights that were coming in,

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Speaker 7: and you know, most flights are, you know, a little

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Speaker 7: po dunk things, but there was this one random flight

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Speaker 7: from Alaska that was coming in and it's like what

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Speaker 7: is going on here? Like why is a flight from

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Speaker 7: Alaska coming into this random town in Ohio? And we're like, okay,

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Speaker 7: I think I'm be Sarah Palin and she was twenty

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Speaker 7: five to one odds and you know, I put a

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Speaker 7: thousand dollars on it, which is a huge bet and

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Speaker 7: ended up being Sarah Palin and I made twenty five thousand.

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Speaker 1: Game change baby.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, heartwarming story, right, say, I think so homework.

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Speaker 9: For the win.

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Speaker 5: To me, it is a heartwarming story.

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Speaker 6: Dover, by the way, he made sixty k on that

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Speaker 6: sixty thousand dollars on that Taylor Swift bet, which that

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Speaker 6: was like a couple of days work for him.

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Speaker 1: So this guy is pretty successful.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and at this point Domer is kind of a pro.

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Speaker 3: But anybody can do this. So our wonderful producer, Jasmine JT.

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Speaker 3: Green say, Hi, Jasmine told me about this story that

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Speaker 3: I loved and have not been able to stop thinking about.

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Speaker 5: This guy. Cayden Booth. He was twenty one and he.

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Speaker 3: Decided he wanted to bet on the Super Bowl, and

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Speaker 3: he didn't want to bet on the game or the

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Speaker 3: halftime show. He wanted to bet on the national anthem,

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Speaker 3: which seems like a weird thing to bet on. He

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Speaker 3: was betting on the length of the national anthem specifically,

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Speaker 3: which doesn't seem like there should be that big of

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Speaker 3: a range because the song is the song is the song,

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Speaker 3: but there's actually a huge range. So back in nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety eight, this is Jewel singing the national anthem.

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Speaker 5: It's one of the shortest national.

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Speaker 3: Anthems in Super Bowl history, clocked in at one minute

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Speaker 3: in twenty seven seconds. Now in twenty thirteen, it was

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Speaker 3: one of the longest national anthems in Super Bowl history.

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Speaker 3: It clocked in at two minutes and thirty six seconds

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Speaker 3: from the Lovely Miss Alicia Keys. So now Cayden had

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Speaker 3: to call this year's Super Bowl national anthem. Charlie Pooth

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Speaker 3: was singing, and he had to figure out where Charlie

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Speaker 3: Pooth's national anthem was going to fall on the like

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Speaker 3: star Spangled spectrum.

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Speaker 4: Yes, he was going to do the vibrato. Is it

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Speaker 4: gonna hold the hind note for like a minute and

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Speaker 4: a half?

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Speaker 5: Yes, exactly?

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Speaker 3: Is he going to be on the Jewel side or

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Speaker 3: is he going to be on the Alicia Keys side?

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Speaker 3: So he was kind of poking around and he came

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Speaker 3: across there was this moment and he saw it and

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Speaker 3: he was like, this is my moment.

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Speaker 5: And what happened was he.

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Speaker 3: Just saw a social media post from Charlie Pooths being like,

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Speaker 3: hey headed to San Francisco. It's like a week before

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Speaker 3: the super Bowl, and he thought, this is my moment.

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Speaker 3: He bought three things. He bought a stopwatch. He bought

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Speaker 3: this weird listening equipment that really serious bird watchers use, yeah,

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Speaker 3: exactly to listen to like distant bird calls.

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Speaker 5: And he bought a plane ticket to San Francisco. He

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Speaker 5: went to San Francisco.

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Speaker 3: He stood outside of the stadium. There he is, there's

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Speaker 3: the weird bird watching. He stood outside of the stadium

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Speaker 3: and he was like, at some point Charlie Booth is

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Speaker 3: gonna come and he is going to rehearse on site,

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Speaker 3: and I'm going to catch the sound with my bird

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Speaker 3: watching listening equipment.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna time it. I'm gonna place my bet. And

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Speaker 5: he waited and he waited and he waited, and.

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Speaker 3: Then he heard the swell of the music. He hit

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Speaker 3: the timer and clocked it in. I think you can

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Speaker 3: see it there at a minute fifty one. He placed

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Speaker 3: his bet. He won thousands of dollars homework for the win.

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Speaker 6: Okay, two things stays he One is this is not

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Speaker 6: heartwarming to me because if I'm gonna bet on this,

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Speaker 6: I have the bettings.

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Speaker 1: This guy with the parabolic mic and the plane ticket

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Speaker 1: and the.

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Speaker 5: Stop what he did his homework.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this feels fair to me.

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Speaker 6: Problem number two is what happens, Stacy, if Charlie Pooth deliberately,

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Speaker 6: you know, swayed the you know, he held the high

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Speaker 6: notes for longer than he intended to during the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 6: placed a bet and took five million dollars from this guy.

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Speaker 5: Yes.

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Speaker 3: So these markets, it is true, have always had an

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Speaker 3: insider trading problem, but now that they're getting bigger and

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Speaker 3: more money is going into them, the insider trading problem

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Speaker 3: is getting much larger. This is especially true in sports.

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Speaker 3: Of course, everyone loves sports betting. Sports betting, you can

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Speaker 3: bet on everything from like the color of socks that

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Speaker 3: some athlete is going to wear, to how many fouls

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Speaker 3: there's going to be, to how many free throws.

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Speaker 5: So you can bet on every aspect of every sports game.

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Speaker 3: And some people have really taken this kind of insider

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Speaker 3: trading to almost an art form. So there is an athlete,

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Speaker 3: John tay Porter. He was with the Toronto Raptors and

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Speaker 3: he would basically he was accused of basically making bets

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Speaker 3: on the sideline. Say I'm about to go in and

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Speaker 3: fake an injury and place a bet, and he would

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Speaker 3: go in and fake an injury and win all the time.

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Speaker 6: These aren't necessarily prediction markets, right that you're talking about.

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Speaker 6: This is traditional sports betting with Johntay.

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Speaker 5: Porter with these were on calling market right.

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Speaker 6: And the other thing is this could happen in all

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Speaker 6: sorts of other domains, and that to me is what's

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Speaker 6: kind of so distressing about this.

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Speaker 3: Well, it is distressing and these kinds of issues. So

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Speaker 3: Johntey was banned for life from the NBA, but these

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Speaker 3: issues have happened on professional sports leagues and college sports leagues.

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Speaker 3: And here's the thing that shocks me and makes me

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Speaker 3: think that maybe this is all going in the direction

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Speaker 3: of casinos and hedge funds. You'd think that sports leagues

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Speaker 3: would be horrified by this, right, It's terrible for sportsmanship.

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Speaker 3: Who wants to watch a game where people are throwing

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Speaker 3: the game or wearing socks or missing free throws because

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Speaker 3: they can get some side money. But no, the biggest

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Speaker 3: thing the sports leagues are worried about is getting a

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Speaker 3: cut of the action. National Hockey League, Major League Soccer

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Speaker 3: have signed deals with Polymarket, basically exclusivity deals, so Polymarket

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Speaker 3: can author bets.

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Speaker 5: On them, and they are cashing in.

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Speaker 3: And the New York Stock Exchange bought a huge chunk

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Speaker 3: of poly Market, they too are cashing in. Which makes

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Speaker 3: me think that poly Market and call She and all

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Speaker 3: the glories of homework are now going in the direction

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Speaker 3: of casinos and hedge funds, and that these big rich

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Speaker 3: players can buy an edge or make an edge in

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Speaker 3: this case, and that homework once again is for suckers.

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Speaker 1: Okay, sad.

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Speaker 6: I also just worry Stacy that we're trivializing important stuff,

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Speaker 6: Like let's look at this ad that Calshi has been running.

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Speaker 6: I think I saw this during the Olympics, but it's

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Speaker 6: been out there for a.

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Speaker 1: Couple of months. This is how CALSHI is promoting. Its

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Speaker 1: history has taught us anything. It's not to root against

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Speaker 1: the underdog, all right.

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Speaker 6: So you see David with a slingshot Paul Revere the

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Speaker 6: Midnight Ride. People are betting on whether the Wright Brothers

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Speaker 6: plane will the crash I.

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Speaker 1: Guess against impossible lots.

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Speaker 6: Will prisoners escape Balcatraz, Will Sparta win the war?

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Speaker 1: It's like a three hundred scene here.

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Speaker 6: And I guess the point is, like, hey, all these

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Speaker 6: historical events, you may think of them as historical events,

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Speaker 6: but they're just betting opportunities. I will say they were

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Speaker 6: betting opportunities, like we know in fact that there were

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Speaker 6: prediction markets on the Revolutionary War.

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Speaker 4: And we think that we've invented something new, as we

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Speaker 4: always do on the internet, but as we found a

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Speaker 4: business history. People want to gamble and they want to

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Speaker 4: know the future, and that has always been the case.

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Speaker 1: So can we check you in on the market. Can see,

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Speaker 1: let's just see what's going. Okay, we're doing a kid.

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Speaker 1: It's at fifty six cents. Oh no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: what oh it just dropped. It is at whale.

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Speaker 2: Now remember remember on AirFest whale just out against this.

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Speaker 4: Because we're part way through this session, people have looked around.

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Speaker 4: They have determined that not a lot of people have

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Speaker 4: left so far, and so they are reevaluating what they

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Speaker 4: think of this question, whether ten percent of the audience

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Speaker 4: is going to leave the room or not.

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Speaker 5: You feel like there's also pressure to not leave because.

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Speaker 4: We will close our eyes for ten seconds if anyone

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Speaker 4: wants to make a badness anybody, anybody, we will call

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Speaker 4: you out. Okay, So in theory of those of you

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Speaker 4: keeping count, this will change as we approach the.

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Speaker 1: End of the show. I'll try and pick it up

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I'll say if we can get at least back to.

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Speaker 2: We're going to take a break and then we're going

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Speaker 2: to come back and Robert and I will talk about

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Speaker 2: the centuries long history of prediction markets in just a minute.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, in fact, I meant it when I said

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Speaker 2: that people might have been betting on Paul Revere's ride.

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Speaker 2: We know that prediction markets, not just gambling, but real

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Speaker 2: prediction markets go back at least five hundred years. They

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Speaker 2: go back to Italy in the fifteen hundreds and the

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Speaker 2: big market.

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Speaker 9: There, the big prediction market in Italy.

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Speaker 2: Scomez Farel Papa, betting on who's going to be the

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Speaker 2: Pope Papa. And I mean it makes sense both that

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Speaker 2: it's in Italy and that's what they were betting on.

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Speaker 2: Makes sense that it was in Italy because this was

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Speaker 2: the time Italy, in the fifteen hundreds, when modern finances

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Speaker 2: emerging in Europe, the first banks are being established, the

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Speaker 2: medici are running Florence, and so you see these laws

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Speaker 2: being passed to give brokers in Rome and Florence a monopoly.

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Speaker 1: On these prediction markets.

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Speaker 2: And then the I'll pop up part also makes sense

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Speaker 2: because predicting the next pope in the fifteen hundreds was

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Speaker 2: like the super Bowl and the presidential election.

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Speaker 1: Rolled into one and a lottery.

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Speaker 2: Sure, you know, the pope had a tremendous amount of

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Speaker 2: political power that it mattered if you were a wool

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Speaker 2: merchant in England or if you were the king of

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Speaker 2: France or whatever. It mattered who was going to be

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Speaker 2: the next pope. And so you see ambassadors, you know,

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Speaker 2: writing back home every time there's a conclave, like who

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Speaker 2: is papapul?

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Speaker 1: Who's popable?

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Speaker 2: They would ask these brokers who have the monopoly? They

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Speaker 2: print up chid they like they would. That's like a

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Speaker 2: voucher today, like tickets with each cardinals or all the

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Speaker 2: like possible guys' names on them, and they pay off

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Speaker 2: for one hundred one hundred scooty and you buy it

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Speaker 2: for whatever fractional probability the guy is selling it exactly

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Speaker 2: like exactly like prediction markets work today, and so like

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Speaker 2: for example, in fifteen forty nine, there was a conclave

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Speaker 2: and at one moment Cardinal Poll of England was at

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Speaker 2: eighty percent in the voting heavy favorite, And interestingly, we

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Speaker 2: know now from the historical record that at that moment

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Speaker 2: he did in fact have twenty six of.

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Speaker 9: The twenty eight votes he needed.

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Speaker 2: Right, we knew that that market was reflecting reality.

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Speaker 1: How could they possibly know that the people who are

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Speaker 1: betting on it. Could the Cardinals have been insider trading?

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00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: Oh muldeu No, I mean, look.

443
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 9: If you saw the movie Conclave, you know right that

444
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 9: the Conclave.

445
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: Is supposed to be sealed, like literally.

446
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 2: The word conclave is like koon kiavik kumklavis right with

447
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 2: the key.

448
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 1: It's a room that's closed with a key.

449
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,959
Speaker 2: But yes, obviously the Cardinals were insider trading, right, of

450
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 2: course they were.

451
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 9: This is how it got out. And now there is

452
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 9: this question, right like.

453
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 2: Stacey Max, you guys just talk for twenty minutes about

454
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: why prediction markets are so bad and fair enough, but

455
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 2: put yourself in the shoes of the British war merchant

456
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 2: or of the ambassador or whatever. These people who really

457
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 2: need to know who's going to be the pope. Lives

458
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 2: depend on it, livelihoods depend on it, and So this

459
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: insider trading by the cardinals. Yes, it's unfair, sure it's gross,

460
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: but it is useful information, right, It's good to know

461
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: what's going on inside the locker room. Although I should

462
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 2: say that Cardinal Pole, that guy who was trading at

463
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 2: eighty percent, he did not win. A French cardinal showed

464
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: up at the last minute and accused Pole of being

465
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: a crypto Lutheran, not a bitcoin trader, but a secret Protestant,

466
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 2: and the papacy went to an Italian cardinal instead. Your

467
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 2: bet on Pole was now worth zero weeping in.

468
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 6: It's basically the Jerome Powell renovation. Yes, sixteenth exactly right,

469
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 6: exactly right.

470
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 4: Well, we've done this sort of history of the opportunities

471
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 4: of betting, but there's also a history of the backlash

472
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 4: to betting on real events. We're gonna forget Europe for

473
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 4: a second and move to America. In the eighteen hundreds

474
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 4: and the early nineteen hundreds, the big question, of course,

475
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 4: was similar to the pope one, which is who is

476
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 4: going to be the next president of the United States.

477
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: There was not polling at the time, and so they.

478
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 4: Tried unique things to figure out who the next president

479
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 4: would be.

480
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 1: Reporters would go to bars and count the number.

481
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 4: Of toasts to the various candidates. They would be like, huzzo,

482
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 4: well in Harrison and then can mark that down. This

483
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 4: was a terrible way to predict the president's only drinking.

484
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 5: But the most fun, but the most fun.

485
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 4: And there were actual prediction markets in presidential elections. They

486
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 4: tried that, but then states thought this is a terrible idea,

487
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,199
Speaker 4: and in the nineteen twenties they decide that they are

488
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 4: going to basically outlaw this kind of betting in the

489
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 4: United States of America. Now it does come back, and

490
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 4: it comes back prediction markets from an unlikely source. At

491
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 4: the beginning of the twenty first century. The source of

492
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 4: prediction markets.

493
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: Is the US government.

494
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: The US government decides they're going to see if people

495
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 4: can bet on terrorism.

496
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: Let me explain, all right, May of two thousand and one. DARPA.

497
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 4: Now I know it sounds like a James Bond bad guy,

498
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 4: but DARPA. DARPA is the research arm of the Pentagon.

499
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 4: They're the people who helped bring us the Internet.

500
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 1: And they put out this.

501
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 4: Call for proposals for quote Electronic market based decision support.

502
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 4: The proposal is basically asking can prediction markets help the

503
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 4: US government predict what's going to happen around the world,

504
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 4: Like maybe in the coming year, what's the probability of

505
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 4: a revolution in Tunisia? What will the economic growth in

506
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 4: Mexico be? These are things the US government wants to know.

507
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 4: And you know, the smart guys they are playing around

508
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 4: with prediction markets because the Internet has just come in.

509
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 4: People are obviously using the Internet for betting already, and

510
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 4: so DARPA thinks, well, we should give this a try

511
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 4: and see what's going to happen now. They put out

512
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 4: the call for this in May of two thousand and one.

513
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 4: I don't need to tell you that on September eleventh,

514
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 4: two thousand and one, the World Trade Center is attacked

515
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 4: and it's the worst attack on America since Pearl Harbor.

516
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 4: And this should affect the market. But DARPA thinks, actually,

517
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 4: this is a case for having prediction markets for terrorism.

518
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 4: There is all of this stuff happening in the world.

519
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 4: We need better ways to predict the future. And for

520
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 4: those of you who read the nine eleven report, there

521
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 4: were people who knew parts of the story. It just

522
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 4: was in different agencies, different people. It was hard to

523
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: tell the signal from the noise. If there's one thing

524
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 4: a betting market does is it aggregates all this information

525
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: in one place. So DARPA decides they're going to go

526
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 4: forward with they pay a million dollars and they start

527
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 4: a market called PAM, the Policy Analysis Market. I don't

528
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 4: know if that's their actual logo, but I hope so

529
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 4: it is.

530
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: That's actually it's.

531
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 9: Such a that's how the web used to look.

532
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 1: Drink it in.

533
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 4: Oh, I love it with the rain It's got a

534
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 4: rainbow in a world and a supply and demand curve

535
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 4: I believe over there on the market part of it.

536
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 4: So one of the main proponents of this is an

537
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 4: economist named Robin Hanson.

538
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 1: He's still a proponent of prediction markets, former Silicon Valley guy.

539
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 4: And the market is all set to open in the

540
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 4: summer of two thousand and three. Now it's just it's

541
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 4: just going to be a sample market in terrorism. It's

542
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 4: just going to be about the Middle East, and they

543
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 4: are only going to give testers one hundred dollars to trade,

544
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 4: so you can't make a million dollars on predicting what's

545
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: going to happen in the Middle East.

546
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 1: But they're just going to play around with this.

547
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 4: And then in July of two thousand and three, a

548
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 4: few Democratic senators learn about the plan, and I believe

549
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 4: get wind of is the official Washington term. They get

550
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 4: wind of this plan, and the Democratic senators are not

551
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 4: happy about this. They are Byron Dorgan of South Dakota

552
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 4: and Ron Wyden of Oregon. Look at those guys, and

553
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 4: on July twenty eighth, they call a press conference.

554
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: They call a press conference.

555
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 4: You're gonna have to We have a picture up of

556
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 4: them smiling sort of, but you're gonna have to picture

557
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 4: them being incredibly mad.

558
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: This is what Dorgan says.

559
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 4: The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and

560
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 4: terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque.

561
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: Grotesque.

562
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, sounds bad when you put it that way, right,

563
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 4: Wyden says, why wouldn't terrorists just hop online and start

564
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,479
Speaker 4: betting if they couldn't either mislead American authorities about their

565
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 4: plans or make money to fund more Al Qaeda operations.

566
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: They say that it is morally wrong.

567
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 4: And this, of course was a huge story boiled down,

568
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 4: not the not the subtle economics of it, but really

569
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 4: just like Pentagon kills terror. Futures market sounds terrible, but

570
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 4: there is something really deep here and something that gets

571
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 4: to the heart of our relationship with prediction markets.

572
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: People love to gamble.

573
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 4: There are real reasons to gamble, but people hate the

574
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 4: idea of gambling. It's unseemly and they find gambling on

575
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 4: important things morally repugnant, things like will there be a

576
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 4: terrorist attack. So literally the day the senators hold the

577
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: press conference, the Deputy Secretary of Defense says, I have

578
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 4: never heard of that program until I read about it

579
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 4: in the paper today, And yes, obviously.

580
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: We're going to kill the program.

581
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: The government will do without the electronic market based decision support,

582
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 4: there will be no betting on terrorism, and the prediction

583
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 4: markets basically fade away until the rise of Calshi and Polymarket,

584
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: who sort of took this lesson to heart because the

585
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 4: one thing they.

586
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: Do not call it is gambling. It's prediction. Sounds much better.

587
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 6: Speaking of morally repugnant, I saw someone leading the rue,

588
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 6: so that's going to affect them.

589
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: Mark also when somebody walked in, so we was the

590
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: count from the beginning the country.

591
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, So we're going to wrap up the history section,

592
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,479
Speaker 2: but before we do that.

593
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: I want to go back to Italy in the fifteen

594
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: hundreds for just money on that you win.

595
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 2: And the thing I want to point out is this

596
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: tension between like we want to gamble, we want information

597
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 2: about the future, but also we hate it when people

598
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: do that.

599
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: That has always been there, that was.

600
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,719
Speaker 2: There from the beginning in the fifteen hundreds, and in fact,

601
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: in fifteen ninety, Pope Gregory the fourth issued a papal

602
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 2: bull banning Scomese Papa, banning betting on who was going

603
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: to be the next pope.

604
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: That is him.

605
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's his papal bull in his hand,

606
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 2: but he is waving. Maybe he's waving goodbyechez Gome Papa.

607
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: The penalty was excommunication and kind of amazingly it worked.

608
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: Prediction markets on who was to be the next Pope

609
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 2: seem to have gone away after this point. You don't

610
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 2: see ambassadors writing home about it anymore. And so you

611
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: know what has happened, Well, the church seems less gross

612
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: and maybe less corrupt. You know, the Pope talked about

613
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 2: how we shouldn't we shouldn't combine the most holy thing

614
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: in the world with the corruption of the market.

615
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 9: Right, and emotionally that is resonant.

616
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: It's the counter reformation, right.

617
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: So it's also good for business at this moment if

618
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: the Catholic Church seems less corrupt. But on the other hand,

619
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: the people who really needed that information about who was

620
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: gonna be the next pope don't have it anymore. They

621
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 2: have less idea about this important thing that's gonna happen,

622
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: and so there.

623
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: Is this trade off.

624
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 2: Last thought before we kind of talk it out, is

625
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: it's easy to think, oh, prediction markets, like the modern

626
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: world is so gross, everything is just getting worse.

627
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: That is clearly not true, right. This is not a.

628
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 2: Line where things are getting more and more gambly, more

629
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: and more degenerate. This is a pendulum that has been

630
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: swinging back and forth for literally.

631
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: Hundreds of years. And so the.

632
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: Question I would pose as we uh as we finish

633
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: is is there going to be a backlash?

634
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: When is the pendulum going to swing back?

635
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: And just to be clear, this Papa Bawl is still

636
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 4: in effect. So the current pope cannot bet on Jesus

637
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 4: Us returning.

638
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: I mean he would have to do it through maybe

639
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 2: a cardinal cardinal but.

640
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, so what do you think is this. Are we

641
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 4: going to enter the era where everyone's betting on everything?

642
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 4: Or will it swing back where it becomes morally repugnant

643
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: in a way.

644
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: Maxis Stacy.

645
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: I think this is different than the Papa voting because

646
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 3: you can bet on everything and we are all so connected.

647
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: I just think this betting is on another level and

648
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 3: it's on everything.

649
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 5: I don't know, to me, this is different.

650
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 6: I feel like there are so many ways in which

651
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 6: you take these kind of things that have happened through

652
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 6: history and then you turbocharge them with the Internet and

653
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 6: you get something like say, he's saying different and and

654
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 6: I don't know, I mean putting these papal markets, for instance,

655
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 6: did how did you have.

656
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: To bet Jacob?

657
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 6: You had to like fill out a piece of paper

658
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 6: and like physically handed.

659
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 9: To so much friction to actually paper.

660
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 6: I mean more certainly more friction, and and you didn't

661
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 6: have the you know, the you know, the all this

662
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 6: marketing behind it. It does feel like there is just

663
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 6: it's hard to say that this isn't going to go away,

664
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 6: because this stuff just feels like it's everywhere right now.

665
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 6: Just just every part of life is being financialized, being

666
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 6: turned into gambling essentially, including journalism.

667
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 4: Journalist or journalistic organizations have partnered with betting platforms because

668
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 4: what they see is that people are using this as

669
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 4: a way to get information. Why wait on what the

670
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 4: news is going to tell you about that was on

671
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 4: Twitter or on the poly market. When you can sign

672
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 4: up yourself and see the moment the bet changes, the

673
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 4: moment something pops. That's a news item that may be

674
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 4: considered in the future like a news alert on your phone,

675
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 4: except you're watching it.

676
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 3: Well, and then I think they're counting on insider traders

677
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: to have a correct market. They're counting on people who

678
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: have more knowledge than the rest of us weighing in

679
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: on the market. Well in this, I mean, in my heart,

680
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: yes it is bad because it did values homework, but

681
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: I do think that it does make those markets more valuable.

682
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Domer actually told us this really interesting case

683
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: that took place here in New York around the mayoral election,

684
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: and it was when.

685
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 9: There was corruption around the New York mayor.

686
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: I know, I know, hold on to your seats.

687
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: But Eric Adams was still in the race at this point,

688
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 3: but it was clear he was dropping out and so

689
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 3: this question came up about when and according to Domer.

690
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 3: He told us there was this huge bet placed from

691
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 3: a new user on poly market, like right before Eric

692
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: Adams dropped out of the race, Like set up, that's true.

693
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 2: Actually, look, I mean I could imagine like what you

694
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: guys are saying is true, but there could be some

695
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 2: huge horrific event and two senators could stand up and

696
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: say people are profiting from this huge horrific event, And like,

697
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 2: I do feel like there's a way to, you know,

698
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 2: put a little skin in this game, right, Like I

699
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: think what we need is a market that says, will

700
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 2: Calshi or Polymarket be banned by twenty thirty?

701
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 5: You want to make a betting market about betting market?

702
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: I guess the problem is if you say yes, they'll

703
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,800
Speaker 2: be banned, how do you collect It's like the Jesus

704
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:45,320
Speaker 2: bet all of it.

705
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: It's the Jesus bed.

706
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 6: Do you all use prediction markets in your journalism? Like

707
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 6: do you find yourself going to them? And you know

708
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 6: I use them as a citizen.

709
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 2: I look at them, you bet No, I look at

710
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: them for elections, like when something happens, when there's some

711
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: political news, I'll go and see, like what how has

712
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: the probabilities moved of which Party is going to control

713
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 2: the Senate after the mid terms, because I feel like

714
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: if there is meaningful news, those margarets are big enough that.

715
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: They should move.

716
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 4: And I actually use it as entertainment. So I knew

717
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 4: I was going to watch the State of the Union,

718
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 4: and so I looked at the words people were betting

719
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 4: on that President Trump would say, just were they the reason.

720
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: To keep going? Well?

721
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 5: Were they?

722
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 6: Oh?

723
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 4: There were everything from is he going to say Iran?

724
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 4: Is he going to say two hundred and fifty which

725
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 4: is the.

726
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: Fiftieth Aniversity of the United States?

727
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 4: Which he did, and you could just see the list

728
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,280
Speaker 4: of them, and it just kept me watching.

729
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: It's action.

730
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 4: It turns it into action action edge of my seat.

731
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: All right, should we check in one last time? Yeah? See,

732
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: let's see who might have won here?

733
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 10: Oh wow, okay, So this implies that the audience believes

734
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 10: that it's a lower than fifty percent chance that half

735
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 10: that the people will leave the room.

736
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: That's good for plus than taking around.

737
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 3: Yes, this has been the very first mashup live show

738
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 3: of everybody's business history.

739
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 5: I'm Stacey Mannix.

740
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 6: Smith, I'm Max Shafin', Robert Smith, and I'm Jacob Goldstein.

741
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.

742
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 5: Thanks everybody,