1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,959 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roud Otto 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 2: Here in Washington, where we find a number of Cabinet 7 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 2: nominee spending time today. The visits continue in the Senate 8 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill for a number of designates for secretary positions, 9 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: including as we mentioned, Scott Bessant holding his first round 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: of talks today, but more controversial nominees as well, including 11 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth, the nominee for Secretary of Defense. He had 12 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 2: an interesting and arguably important meeting today Joe with the 13 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: Senator from Maine, Susan Collins, who is well understood to 14 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 2: be one of the most moderate Republicans in the Chamber 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: given the state that she represents, And after that meeting, 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: Seth said he hopes to earn Collins's support, So trying 17 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: to speak positively about this, but this one's still a 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 2: question mark. 19 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, positive to a point, that's far from an endorsement. 20 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: You know, you compare that to what we've heard from 21 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 3: Jony Ernst, Susan Collins today, Lisa Murkowski yesterday, the Republican 22 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 3: from Alaska also to your point, having some issues with 23 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: some of the allegations that have been levied against Pete Hegseth, 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: all of which he denies, of course, sexual assault allegations, 25 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 3: questions about his alcohol use seem to be fading the 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 3: more he meets with senators here, and a lot of 27 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 3: it has to do with, based on our reporting at Bloomberg, 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 3: a pressure campaign, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski getting a real 29 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: earful from Republicans who want to see Donald Trump's nominees 30 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: be confirmed. 31 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, the question is really going to be for the 32 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: senators who have reelection fights coming up just two years 33 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 2: from now. Twenty twenty six is not all that far 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 2: away politically. Do you want to risk getting a challenge 35 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 2: from the right and your entire political future, arguably over 36 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: a no vote on one of the presidental ecnomics. 37 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: Let's get into it with our panel. Genie Schanzeno is 38 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 3: with US Democratic analyst, Bloomberg Politics contributor and political science 39 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 3: professor at Ioni University alongside Republican strategist Lester Munson from 40 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 3: the International practice at BGR Group. Great to see you both. Lester, 41 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 3: your thoughts on the pressure campaign. We've been hearing more 42 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 3: about it than really any confirmation process we've seen in 43 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 3: recent memory. Are these phone calls and meetings par for 44 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 3: the course in a Trump world? 45 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 4: I suppose these are? You know, some of these groups 46 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 4: that are that are active making calls and kind of 47 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 4: generating some constituent interest have been in this role before, 48 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 4: putting pressure inside the Republican Party on kind of from 49 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 4: the right towards the middle. So this is this is 50 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 4: not unusual. This at the end of the day, are 51 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 4: these senators. Are these sitting senators going to read that 52 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 4: threat as credible or not? You wisely pointed out, They're 53 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 4: thinking about their re election chances and how this will play. 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 4: That's how the system works. Can they get through the 55 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 4: primary to a general? You know, the constituency in the 56 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 4: primary maybe very different than the general election, so they 57 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 4: have to worry about both of those, which means they 58 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 4: could be threading a pretty tight needle here on this vote. 59 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 4: And the delay we're seeing is as important as anything. 60 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 4: So the longer Hegseth can stay as the nominee without 61 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 4: having to withdraw, I think probably the better it is 62 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 4: for him as these some of the allegations maybe get 63 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 4: put in perspective or toned down or just not seen 64 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 4: as serious. Perhaps. Nevertheless, it does highlight the thing we 65 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 4: talked about a couple segments ago that Republicans may have 66 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 4: a little bit of a woman problem here. There's no 67 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 4: women in the leadership in committee leadership on the House side, 68 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 4: and now we're dealing with some tough personal behavior with 69 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 4: a nominee here. So there's some bigger issues to think 70 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 4: about as well. 71 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 2: So as we consider this question around a primary challenge 72 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: for some of these individuals, Genie, I do wonder what 73 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: Senator Tim Scott must think about this as the incoming 74 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: chair of the NRSC, who is essentially his job is 75 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 2: to make sure Republicans either stay in the Senate or 76 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 2: get elected to it. And on the flip side of that, 77 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 2: is it the best news possible for Democrats if some 78 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: of these people decide to vote no on a Trump 79 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 2: nominee and potentially not only keep that nominee from getting confirmed, 80 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: but potentially open up opportunity if there is a far 81 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: right challenge for a pickup in states like North Carolina 82 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 2: or Maine in the midterms. 83 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. 84 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 5: Absolutely, It's one of the benefits of being in the minority. 85 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 5: You could sort of sit back and watch this play 86 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 5: itself out. You know. I think we also, though, have 87 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 5: to consider the facts. I looked up today the incumbency 88 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 5: reelection rate in the Senate. Now, these are real threats, 89 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 5: but the reality is in twenty twenty four, the incumbency 90 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:00,039 Speaker 5: reelection rate was ninety one percent. In twenty twenty t 91 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 5: it was a whopping one hundred percent. So absolutely, there 92 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 5: can be primary challenges. But if there's one thing our 93 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 5: incumbent senators do well, it is get re elected. So 94 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 5: this is a real threat, but one that they are 95 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 5: perfectly situated to combat. And the other side of that is, 96 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 5: you know, you look at somebody like Susan Collins, and 97 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 5: you know, I couldn't agree more with Lester about the 98 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 5: issue of women in the Republican Party. But you look 99 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 5: at Susan Collins, the reality is she's a little bit 100 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 5: like a Joe Manchin on the other side Republicans to 101 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 5: your point, Kaylee, you know, you look at Scott they 102 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 5: have to be very, very careful because they don't want 103 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 5: to lose this seat to a Democrat, and in fact, 104 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 5: her voting against one or more of these Republican Trump 105 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 5: nominees may actually help her in a state like Maine. 106 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 5: So there's a lot of nuances as you look at 107 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 5: this on a state by state basis. So these threats 108 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 5: are real, but they may not be impactful in two years. 109 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 3: We were talking earlier this about a piece in the 110 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 3: Washington Post today, Lester pointing out some of the tough 111 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: rhetoric that we've heard from these nominees, specifically Tulsey Gabbard 112 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 3: and Kaylee RFK Junior was part of this conversation. Comments 113 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 3: about Donald Trump that have been made in fairly recent history, 114 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 3: some of these I can't read on the air. Gabbard 115 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 3: has accused Donald Trump of turning the US into Saudi 116 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: Arabia's a word that rhymes with rich twice, compared him 117 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 3: to a pimp, called him a self serving politician, unfit 118 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 3: to serve as president, and commander in chief, said he 119 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 3: has the blood of Kurds on his hands. I can 120 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 3: keep going here. I mean, it's quite the gallery of language. Again, 121 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 3: some of it I can't repeat. Does any of it matter? 122 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 3: She's talking about senators here as well, calling Roger Wicker insane, 123 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 3: a sociopath or a sadist. How does that play in 124 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:52,119 Speaker 3: a hearing? 125 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 4: Well, probably not well. She's a terrific subplot to this 126 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 4: larger narrative. I think the question is going to be 127 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 4: does she get canceled after a couple of episodes or 128 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 4: she going to make it all the way through the season. 129 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 4: There's a lot of personality here, a lot of a 130 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 4: lot of drama. Her nomination maybe end up being the 131 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 4: one that's most most like a roller coaster. We'll see 132 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 4: how long it lasts. I think if in all seriousness, 133 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 4: she's got some constituencies out there that are very concerned 134 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 4: about her nomination, constituencies that matter, if she can go 135 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 4: make peace with them, she might survive this process. If 136 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 4: she's not willing to do that, if she continues to 137 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 4: have some of these frankly very outside the mainstream views 138 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 4: on foreign policy issues, I think she's not going to 139 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 4: make it all the way through. 140 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 2: Well, as we consider this notion that Donald Trump is 141 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 2: by and large picking people who are loyal to him now, 142 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 2: even if they weren't always, Genie, I do want to 143 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: get your take on what we learned yesterday his nomination 144 00:07:55,600 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 2: for ambassador to Greece Kimberly Gilfoyle, who least was engaged 145 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,679 Speaker 2: to his son Don Junior. There's a lot of reporting 146 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 2: that suggests perhaps that engagement is off now, but it's 147 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 2: just another example of someone who is actually, at least 148 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 2: potentially by marriage or intended to by marriage, be part 149 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 2: of the President of X family serving in his administration. 150 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 5: Yeah. Absolutely. You know, it's not unusual, as we all know, 151 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 5: for presidents to appoint ambassadors for various reasons. You know, 152 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 5: I'm a big New York Posts Page six fan Kayley, 153 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 5: so I read it a lot, so I'm all up 154 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 5: to date on what they're saying about the what was 155 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 5: I guess an engagement and may or may not be 156 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 5: on right now. You know, the reality is this is 157 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 5: pretty common practice. It was one of the things that 158 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 5: Joe Biden actually tried to put a halt to, saying 159 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 5: you need people with more serious foreign policy credentials in 160 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 5: the ambassador role. Obviously, this comes back with the Trump administration, 161 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 5: and you know, it's something that we've long seen in 162 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 5: the US, and I think it is going to raise 163 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 5: some concern But if the engagement is off. Maybe this 164 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 5: is best for Don Junior if she's over in Greece. 165 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 5: I don't know. 166 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 3: Wow, there's so much I have to learn about still 167 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 3: the engagements. I don't know about any of the stuff. 168 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 2: Well, that's unconfirmed by Bloomberg. Okay, you know, check the 169 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 2: internet and see what you find. 170 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: I've got. 171 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 3: It's all there. Great panel, Jeanie Shanze know Lester months 172 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 3: and you never know what you're going to learn around here. 173 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 3: Important conversation, though, as we continue to follow what's happening 174 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 3: with regard to this transition, we'll have a lot more 175 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 3: for you as these meetings occur and we get closer 176 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 3: to actual hearings. Coming up, an important interview today in Washington, 177 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 3: Kayley exclusive here on Bloomberg with Jenna Allen, the Treasury 178 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 3: Secretary sitting down with David Girl. Will have a taste 179 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 3: of that coming up. 180 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll have reaction to that conversation from economist 181 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: Lindsay Owens of the Groundwork Collaborative. So stick with us 182 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg TV and radio. 183 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Kens 184 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 185 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: and then Ronoo with the Blue Birth Business Act. You 186 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 187 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 188 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us on this Wednesday edition. It 189 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 2: just happens to be Wednesday, December eleventh, and that reminds 190 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 2: me that we haven't mentioned the countdown clock yet. That's 191 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 2: right this hour, Joe, nine days to go until government 192 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 2: funding expires. No one is expecting that there will be 193 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 2: a shutdown. There's going to be a solution of some kind, 194 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: very likely a continuing resolution that will go till mid March, 195 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: when we're all be roughly halfway through the fiscal year 196 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: that this budget was supposed to be addressing. Putting a 197 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 2: spotlight on the shall we say, difficult fiscal picture of 198 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 2: the United States. 199 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: Well, look, how many economists have we talked to you 200 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 3: on this program about the impact of extending or making 201 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 3: permanent the Trump tax cuts combined with tariffs when there 202 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 3: is no obvious way to pay for it. It turns 203 00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 3: our attention to ballooning deficits, and something that can came 204 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 3: up today with some parting remarks from Janet Yellen, who 205 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 3: sat down exclusively with Bloomberg's David Gore. 206 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 6: Here, she is, well, I am concerned about the fiscal outlook, 207 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 6: and I believe the deficit reduction is necessary to keep 208 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 6: us on a sustainable fiscal course. 209 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 2: Now. 210 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 6: President Biden signed into law a trillion dollars of deficit 211 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 6: reduction over the next ten years. He did that in 212 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 6: the agreement to raise the debt ceiling. And our budget 213 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 6: proposes an additional three trillion dollars of deficit reduction over 214 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 6: ten years, and I think that's necessary to make sure 215 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 6: that our fiscal path is sustainable. Now, Congress hasn't really 216 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 6: done anything to, you know, beyond what I've mentioned, to 217 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 6: improve the fiscal outlook, and I think that's a shame. 218 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 6: I'm disappointed in that, and I think Congress needs to 219 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 6: work hard on that. There is a threat going forward 220 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 6: that many of the provisions on the individual tax side 221 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 6: of the Jobs, Job Cuts and Tax Act JCTA enacted 222 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 6: by the Trump administration in Congress in twenty seventeen, they 223 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 6: will sunset at the end of next year, and many 224 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 6: Republicans have expressed a desire to keep all those provisions 225 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 6: in place. Cbo said that will cost five trillion dollars 226 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 6: over ten years. So that really is and so that 227 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 6: would be a blow in a situation where I believe 228 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 6: an additional three trillion, that not doing the five trillion 229 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 6: and three trillion more is necessary, and if the provisions 230 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 6: are just extended, this will be a serious blow without 231 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 6: finding ways to pay for them. We proposed a lot 232 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 6: of pay fors that we think would fairly ask corporations, 233 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 6: wealthy individuals to pay their fair share. We've negotiated an 234 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 6: international tax agreement that would create a level playing field 235 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 6: worldwide for multinationals. The United States has not yet joined, 236 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 6: although many other countries have, and that would be a 237 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 6: revenue raising measure that I think would be very valuable, 238 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 6: and there is certainly more so I do hope that 239 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 6: the new administration and Congress will, if they extend features 240 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 6: of JCTA, find ways to pay for what they do 241 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 6: and also make sure that the benefits go not to 242 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 6: the wealthiest individuals but to middle class families. 243 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 3: The Treasury Secretary, at least for a few more weeks, 244 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 3: Jennet Yellen speaking exclusively with Bloomberg. She talked about a 245 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 3: lot more as well, including the notion of a shadow 246 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 3: fed chair and you can find the full conversation on 247 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 3: the terminal and will be posted on the Big Take 248 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 3: podcast when that drops tomorrow. David Gerro was speaking for 249 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV as well as the podcast Bloomberg Radio. They 250 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: covered a lot of ground. 251 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 2: Kellie, Yeah, but this deficit conversation is important one to 252 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 2: consider as we look forward to this new administration that 253 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: will be coming in. Scott Bessen of course, will be 254 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 2: taking over Janet Allen's current role, and Donald Trump will 255 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 2: be President of the United States pushing for a long 256 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 2: list of tax cuts in addition to the extension of 257 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 2: his twenty seventeen tax package. So for more on this, 258 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 2: we turned to Lindsay Owen. She is from the Groundwork Collaborative, 259 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: where she is executive director. She's also a former senior 260 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 2: economic policy advisor to Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren. Lindsay, welcome 261 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 2: back to balance of power. When we consider these kind 262 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 2: of tax oriented questions which we know we will be 263 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 2: dealing with next year, to what extent is this about 264 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: considering a medium to long term impact, which is obviously 265 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 2: a higher United States deficit versus the near one, The 266 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 2: near term one that Republicans and the Trump incoming Trump 267 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 2: administration argue will mean higher growth and more money in 268 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: the pockets of American people. 269 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, if you're a top concern around the American economy 270 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 7: is fiscal sustainability. If you're worried about the debt or 271 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 7: the deficit, you are in for a root awakening next 272 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 7: year because Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans are already hard 273 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 7: at work in the tax writing committees working on a 274 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 7: budget but sting tax package of additional cuts, tax cuts 275 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 7: for the wealthy and possibly even more for corporations. You know, 276 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 7: as Yellen said, we know because the Congressional Budget Office 277 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 7: has already weighed in just extending the status quo, the 278 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 7: tax cuts that Trump passed in twenty seventeen that are 279 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 7: slated to sunset and expire at the end of next year. 280 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 7: Merely extending those for the next ten years is going 281 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 7: to cost nearly five trillion dollars. So we are definitely 282 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 7: not headed to a better place from a fiscal sustainability perspective. 283 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 7: But this isn't really that surprising. When we get a 284 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 7: Republican trifecta, we get tax cuts and we get budget deficits. 285 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 7: That's what happened when President Trump took office in seventeen. 286 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 7: That's what we saw with Bush and the Bush tax cuts. 287 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 7: So I think we've seen this movie before. We know 288 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 7: what to expect next year. You know, we absolutely should 289 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 7: be in a position to let those tax cuts expire 290 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 7: on schedule if our focus is budget deficits. I mean, 291 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 7: there are also other good reasons to let those tax 292 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 7: cuts expire, including it would decrease income and equality in 293 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 7: this country. But that's obviously not where we're headed. You know, 294 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 7: if congressional Republicans are able to move through their planned 295 00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 7: tax cuts. 296 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 3: Well, of course we've talked about this idea of the 297 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 3: tax cuts combined with the tariffs becoming something even greater. 298 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 3: Scott Bessen has talked to us about it here at 299 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 3: the table, suggesting you cannot take one element of the 300 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 3: plan in a vacuum. You have to put it all together. 301 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 3: They also point, Lindsey, as you well know, to rising 302 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 3: revenues following the Trump tax cuts when they were first 303 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: implemented in twenty seventeen, suggesting that COVID got in the way, 304 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 3: that the pandemic distorted what came next. How do you 305 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 3: respond to that? 306 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean there's there were a lot of promises 307 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 7: made in twenty seventeen about the long term outlook of 308 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 7: the tax cuts. One of the promises made was that 309 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 7: the tax cuts would pay for themselves. Obviously that was 310 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 7: not born out. You know, we know that the tax 311 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 7: cuts cost one point nine trillion dollars when all this 312 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 7: said and done. You know, there was a peereriod of 313 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 7: time when the Trump administration was also promising that every 314 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 7: family would see a four thousand dollars increase in their 315 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 7: wages because of the tax cuts, and that also didn't 316 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 7: come true. So I'm not holding my breath for you 317 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 7: know more kind of mythical supply side economics, you know, 318 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 7: results from tax cuts. You know the data then on this, 319 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 7: we have legions of academic research that shows that these 320 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 7: tax cuts won't pay for themselves. What they will do 321 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 7: is boost the bottom lines for shareholders who will see big, 322 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 7: you know, big benefits. 323 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 2: Well, there's also the question of the impact both the 324 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 2: tax and tariff side of the equation that Joe was 325 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 2: referencing will have on inflation. When the Fed is trying 326 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 2: to get closer to declaring outright victory on that, lindsay, 327 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 2: we've course got CPI this morning, for the fourth month 328 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 2: in a row, a three tenth of a percent rise 329 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 2: in core CPI xing out food and energy. Is this 330 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 2: all the justification necessary for a FED cut next week 331 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 2: for now? And then what happens once we get into 332 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:02,040 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. 333 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 5: Yeah? 334 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 7: I think CPI came in today sort of right on schedule, 335 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 7: right in line with expectations, and as a result, I 336 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,719 Speaker 7: do anticipate the Fed will move forward with their planned 337 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 7: cut next week, you know, headed into next year is 338 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 7: a really interesting question. I do think if what we 339 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 7: see in terms of economic policy in Washington is tax 340 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 7: cuts for the wealthy and higher prices for everyone else, 341 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 7: the inflation outlook will deteriorate considerably. So that's obviously something 342 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 7: that we're concerned about and watching closely. But as it 343 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 7: stands right now, you know, inflation is still, you know, 344 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 7: off of its peak. We're in a reasonably good place 345 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 7: inflation wise, and I think the FED is in a 346 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 7: reasonably good place as well. 347 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 3: Interesting statement from Lale Brainers coming out of the White 348 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 3: House for four months in a row now, she writes, 349 00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 3: inflation has been close to the level right before the pandemic. 350 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 3: It's almost like an almost mission accomplished sign they almost 351 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 3: made it. Lindsay, how would you describe the job done here? 352 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 3: I know we get one more data point before they 353 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 3: leave office, but the job done and beating inflation. 354 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, I mean, I think the Biden administration has 355 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 7: a lot to be pretty proud of. You know, they 356 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 7: came in during an incredibly tumultuous economic period and a 357 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 7: tumultuous period for the country more broadly, right, we were 358 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 7: in the throes of a devastating, once in a century pandemic. 359 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 7: The unemployment rate had come up above six percent, and 360 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 7: then you know, shortly thereafter we started to see the 361 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,239 Speaker 7: surgeon inflation and late twenty twenty one, and you know, 362 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 7: they leave office more or less having taken care of 363 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 7: all of those issues. Right, the pandemic has subsided. Unemployment 364 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 7: is back down to pre pandemic levels, Job growth is nice, 365 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 7: wages are beating prices, household incomes are looking nice, and 366 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 7: inflation as inched down to close to that pre pandemic 367 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 7: level and very near the FEDS two percent target. So 368 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,199 Speaker 7: they have a lot to be proud of. Obviously. You know, 369 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 7: the sort of electoral benefits of that work, you know, 370 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 7: are are sort of vexing and frustrating to them. But 371 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 7: I think you know, just on the numbers calling balls 372 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 7: and strikes here, you know, they've done a really nice 373 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 7: job with the economy, and I think it is really 374 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 7: a testament to their approach, which was to center increasing 375 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 7: worker power, to center making federal investments in in markets 376 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,640 Speaker 7: and the economy so that we could have those good 377 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 7: paying jobs that have been powering that record job growth 378 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 7: month over month. And then also they've done a really 379 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,480 Speaker 7: exceptional job in curbing the worst excesses of corporate power 380 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 7: we saw just yesterday the court agreed with the Federal 381 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 7: Trade Commission to block the merger of Kroger and Albertson's. 382 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 7: I mean, that's certainly something that would have resulted in 383 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 7: a spike and grocery prices for families. Obviously, we have 384 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 7: you know, web dot storm for now. 385 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 3: Lindsay gets great to have you back, Lindsay Owens with 386 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 3: the Groundwork Collaborative, where she's executive director, former senior economic 387 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 3: policy advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. It's great to have 388 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 3: you back here. On this day, we spend some time 389 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 3: with Janet Yellen and the incoming likely Treasury Secretary is 390 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 3: making rounds today on Capitol Hill. That FTC appointment, by 391 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 3: the way, awfully interesting because it's someone we actually know about, 392 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 3: a Republican member of the Commission with a track record. 393 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 394 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoto 395 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you 396 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 397 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. As we turn to animal spirits, 398 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 3: you can't get to this without talking about the next 399 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 3: at least Donald Trump hopes will be the next head 400 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 3: of the FTC. This is one that broke yesterday here 401 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 3: Andrew Ferguson to replace Lena Kahn. Now I get back 402 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: to this idea of animal spirits is partly why we've 403 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 3: seen the markets on a tear since the election, the 404 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 3: idea that we're unlocking more m and a opportunity that 405 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 3: we'll see a revival maybe in the IPO market. A 406 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 3: lot more where that came from, as we heard earlier 407 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 3: today from Goldbensachs CFO Dennis Coleman, a new direction to 408 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 3: the FTC with this Trump let's listen. 409 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 8: With Fergin's nominee, there could be a new direction at 410 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,199 Speaker 8: the FTC. Obviously, as a sitting commissioner dissented with the 411 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 8: current leadership on a number of cases, and so we 412 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,360 Speaker 8: could see a more favorable environment heading into twenty twenty 413 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 8: five that could actually spur more by way of CEO 414 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:50,959 Speaker 8: confidence and in turn unlocking more investment, more activity, and 415 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 8: provide a more favorable strategic backdrop. 416 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 3: Let's bring in an expert on this, Jennifer Ree all 417 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 3: things Anti trust and FTC. Turn to Jenry, a Bloomberg 418 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 3: Intelligence where she is senior litigation analyst. Great to see you, Jen, 419 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power. Your thoughts on this 420 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 3: pick and how it could change the trajectory for mergers 421 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 3: and acquisitions. I ask you that knowing we have a 422 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: Republican member of the Commission here who has a track record. 423 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 9: Yeah, thanks for having me, Joe. I appreciate it, you know, 424 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 9: I think it will change things, and I think flip 425 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 9: what we've seen to be many abandoned deals under the 426 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 9: Biden administration, as well as challenge deals in court, to 427 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 9: a much longer list of deals that actually get closed 428 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 9: with a settlement. I think to some extent, we're going 429 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 9: to go back to the way things were before even 430 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 9: the first Trump administration, when we tended to see very 431 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 9: few deals challenged each year. Still investigations, you know, three 432 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 9: to four percent of the deals that filed will probably 433 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 9: get in depth investigations, because that's been pretty steady and 434 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,080 Speaker 9: constant across most administrations. But I think more deals will 435 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 9: close and if they're problematic with the settlement than we've 436 00:24:58,359 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 9: seen in several years now. 437 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 3: All Right, So, based on the resume here, I just 438 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 3: want to talk about what we know about Andrew Ferguson. 439 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 3: He descended from several of Lena Khan's rule making efforts, 440 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 3: as Bloomberg points out, including a ban on non compete 441 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 3: clauses that was a big story we covered this year, 442 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 3: and rules to make it easier to cancel subscriptions. How 443 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 3: do you read into those in terms of what he 444 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 3: might do as the boss. 445 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 9: Well, I think he'll start pulling all of these things 446 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 9: back or not fight the litigation. This non compete rule 447 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,719 Speaker 9: is in litigation now, and of course the FTC can 448 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 9: simply withdraw that litigation. He did think that that was 449 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 9: overreaching by the agency, and now he's going to be 450 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 9: running policy. This will be up to him. He will 451 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 9: have a majority as soon as Mark Meeterer, who is 452 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 9: the other person that President Elect Trump has nominated to 453 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 9: the FTC, replaces Lena Khan, which could take a few months, 454 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 9: but it'll be pretty fast, I think. And so once 455 00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 9: he has that majority, he'll be able to go forward 456 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 9: and do things withdraw some of the rules. I think 457 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,679 Speaker 9: he will also change the merger guidelines that were issued 458 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 9: in twenty twenty three by this FTC in this DOJ 459 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 9: that made it more made it so that the FTC 460 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 9: could more easily challenge deals. I think he'll pull those 461 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 9: back as well. 462 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 3: Goldben Sachs has been on a tear. You're not surprised 463 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 3: to see this. I'm guessing, right, what does this mean 464 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 3: for the investment banking world, for those who are actually 465 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 3: laying out underwriting mergers and acquisitions? Maybe in this new year. 466 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,360 Speaker 9: Listen, I think we're going to see a real flurry 467 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 9: of merger and acquisition activity, of course, which is great 468 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 9: for the investment banks. You know, any companies that we're 469 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 9: thinking about doing a deal that they think may have 470 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 9: raised some scrutiny or some anti trust issues with the 471 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 9: FTC and DJ probably waited right, and they'll get those 472 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 9: deals filed now, or they'll get those deals filed in 473 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 9: the new year. I think we'll see a lot of 474 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 9: activity because there is hope that we will go back 475 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 9: to a time in which these deals can get done 476 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 9: and if they're problematic, they can get done with a 477 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,120 Speaker 9: reasonable settlement, and if they're not problematic, can get done 478 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 9: more quickly without a long term investigation in eight or 479 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 9: nine months or ten months, and millions of dollars put 480 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 9: in before the deal actually it gets cleared and closes. 481 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 3: Jenniferree has been working for a long time on this 482 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 3: Kroger Albertson's deal. We've talked about it here before. And 483 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 3: look at that Jenna federal judge blocking the acquisition is 484 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 3: a twenty five billion dollar deal, almost basically putting the 485 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 3: nail in the coffin here. Is this the last vestige 486 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 3: of Lena Cohn's FTC? 487 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 9: I think so, you know, she just had two wins. 488 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,400 Speaker 9: She also won when they challenged the Tapestry Coupre deal, 489 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 9: so she does kind of go out with a bang. 490 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 9: That was a difficult challenge and they won, and now 491 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,640 Speaker 9: they won this one. I think This one was probably 492 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 9: a little bit easier because I think the extent of 493 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 9: competition between these two companies and a consumer facing sensitive 494 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 9: industry was pretty obvious. And the FTC did a really 495 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 9: good job at trial showing that in thousands of local 496 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,199 Speaker 9: regions in the United States this would cause concentration in 497 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 9: a grocery store market, and that the remedy that was 498 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 9: proposed by the companies was probably insufficient to really ameliorate 499 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 9: that problem, and you'd end up with increased prices and 500 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 9: reduce choice or reduced quality. 501 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 3: What's Lena Kang going to do in our remaining moment, 502 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 3: to go make money or go to academia. What happens 503 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 3: from here? 504 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 9: You know, I suspect she'll go back to academia. You know, 505 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 9: that was really her life, that theoretical world. I think, 506 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 9: where she really thrives, she may go back to Colombia, 507 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 9: you know, you know, because she really made her name 508 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 9: right in Academiica when she wrote an article about Amazon 509 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 9: and the fact that she viewed Amazon as a company 510 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 9: that was engaging in monopolistic conduct that really kind of, 511 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 9: you know, put her in the front line of what's 512 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 9: called the neo Brandisian movement in antitrust, and I think 513 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 9: she'll go back to that. 514 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 3: Just who I wanted to talk to you today, Jennifer 515 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 3: Read Bloomberg Intelligence senior litigation analysts. Yeah, I want to 516 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 3: go back to my theoretical world. Where is that? Thanks 517 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 3: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 518 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 3: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or 519 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 520 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 3: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at 521 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.