Speaker 1: Good morning.
Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
Speaker 2: stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: That is ariz in Treasury yields, Karen, and it comes
Speaker 3: after more clues that a March rate cut is not
Speaker 3: in the cards for the Federal Reserve. In an interview
Speaker 3: on CBS is sixty Minutes with Scott Pelly, FED Chair
Speaker 3: j Powell said policymakers will likely wait beyond next month
Speaker 3: to cut interest rates.
Speaker 4: I think it's not likely that this committee will reach
Speaker 4: that level of confidence in time for the March meeting,
Speaker 4: which is in seven weeks.
Speaker 3: How would you characterize the consensus around this table for rapecuts?
Speaker 3: Is everyone on board? Almost all?
Speaker 4: Almost all of the nineteen participants who sit around this
Speaker 4: table believe that it will be appropriate, in their most
Speaker 4: likely case, for US to cut the federal funds right
Speaker 4: this year.
Speaker 3: That was FED Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview on
Speaker 3: sixty Minutes from CBS, he says officials are looking for
Speaker 3: more economic data to confirm that inflation is headed down
Speaker 3: to two.
Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, we turn now to the latest in the
Speaker 2: Middle East. The White House is promising more strikes on
Speaker 2: Iranian forces and proxies after three straight days of punishing attacks,
Speaker 2: but National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan insists the US won't
Speaker 2: be pulled into a regional conflict.
Speaker 5: We cannot rule out that there will be further attacks
Speaker 5: from Iranian back militias in a racket Syria or from
Speaker 5: the Huthis. We have to be clear right about that.
Speaker 5: The President, in being clear right about that, has told
Speaker 5: his military commanders that they need to be positioned to
Speaker 5: respond to further attacks as well.
Speaker 2: And Jake Sullivan was a guest on ABC's this week
Speaker 2: and as the US and France iron it's also pushing
Speaker 2: for an extended pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas
Speaker 2: to allow for more hostage releases from Gazap. Sullivan says
Speaker 2: the prospects for a deal are not imminent.
Speaker 5: Israel has in fact put forward a proposal, and as
Speaker 5: Cutter has indicated publicly, the ball is in Hamas's court
Speaker 5: at this time.
Speaker 2: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made those comments on Face
Speaker 2: the Nation from CBS.
Speaker 3: Meanwhile, care and Washington senators have reached a deal to
Speaker 3: provide more funds for border security and aid for Ukraine,
Speaker 3: but there are still some hurdles Bloomberg's Amy Morris has
Speaker 3: details from Washington.
Speaker 6: Senate leaders on both sides of the aisle back the
Speaker 6: more than one hundred and eighteen billion dollar compromise, with
Speaker 6: the first procedural vote set for Wednesday. President Biden says
Speaker 6: he strongly supports it, adding it would give him more
Speaker 6: authority to shut down the border while making the asylum
Speaker 6: process fair and more efficient. House Speaker Mike Johnson called
Speaker 6: the three hundred and seventy page bill dead on arrival
Speaker 6: in the House, which sparked reaction from Republican Senator James Langford,
Speaker 6: who helped craft the deal.
Speaker 7: I'm a little confused. It's worse than I expected. When
Speaker 7: it builds border wall, expands deportation flights, expands ice officers,
Speaker 7: border patrol officer, how it creates a faster process for deportation.
Speaker 6: But Speaker Johnson says it just doesn't go far enough,
Speaker 6: and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise says it won't even
Speaker 6: come to a vote in the House in Washington. Amy
Speaker 6: Morris Bloomberg Radio Right. Amy Thanks Sticking with politics. Former
Speaker 6: President Donald Trump says he might impose a new tariff
Speaker 6: on Chinese goods if elected, and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor
Speaker 6: Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.
Speaker 8: Trump told The Washington Post he might impose his sixty
Speaker 8: percent tariff on Chinese imports. He told Fox News Sunday
Speaker 8: Morning Futures, it could be even more.
Speaker 9: I'm not looking to hurt China.
Speaker 3: I want to get along with China.
Speaker 9: I think it's great.
Speaker 8: But they've really taken advantage of our country, and we
Speaker 8: turned it around. The comments add to a long list
Speaker 8: of concerns for investors of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs has
Speaker 8: said that a Trump reelection is among the most frequently
Speaker 8: asked questions. Trump also weighed in on Nippon Steele's move
Speaker 8: on US Steel.
Speaker 3: US Still, you know what a name that is.
Speaker 8: That's the most important name.
Speaker 9: Fifty years ago there was no company like US.
Speaker 8: Still now that Japan is buying it, I don't think
Speaker 8: i'd let that deal go through. By the way, Donald
Speaker 8: Trump on Fox in Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, Brian, thank you. And other news involving China.
Speaker 3: Policymakers are pledging to stabilize the country's slumping equity market.
Speaker 3: The China Securities Regulatory Commission says it would guide more
Speaker 3: medium and long term funds into the market and crack
Speaker 3: down on legal activities. Some seven trillion dollars has been
Speaker 3: raised from the value of Chinese and Hong Kong equities
Speaker 3: since their peaks. In your early twenty twenty one.
Speaker 2: Well in company news this morning, Nathan, another setback for
Speaker 2: Boeing involving its seven thirty seven Max jet. Let's get
Speaker 2: the latest from Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Speaker 10: John, it's yet another manufacturing slip up, Karen. Boeing has
Speaker 10: found mistakes with rivet holes in the fuselage of fifty
Speaker 10: undelivered seven thirty sevens. Their supplier, Spirit Aerosystems believe responsible.
Speaker 10: There's been a string of manufacturing lapses at Boeing, including
Speaker 10: a near catastrophic panel blowout last month. Well, the FAA
Speaker 10: has stepped up scrutiny of Boeing and has capped seven
Speaker 10: thirty seven production until the quality improves. My shares right
Speaker 10: now down two point three percent pre market, John Tucker,
Speaker 10: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: And John, We're going to be watching shares of Amjen
Speaker 3: as well. An experimental weight loss shot from the drug
Speaker 3: maker that's taken less frequently than wildly popular treatments. For
Speaker 3: Eli Lillian Novan, Noordisk appears to keep weight off even
Speaker 3: after patients stop taking it. An early stage study and
Speaker 3: the journal Nature Metabolism says patients who got a monthly
Speaker 3: injection of Amgen's drug dubbed Manta Maritid lost up to
Speaker 3: fourteen and a half percent of weight in just twelve weeks.
Speaker 3: Some people kept it off up to one hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty days after stopping the drug.
Speaker 2: Well Nathan and the entertainment world, the records keep coming.
Speaker 2: For Taylor Swift, she won Album of the Year at
Speaker 2: the Grammys for Midnights. For me, the award is the work.
Speaker 2: All I want to do is keep being able to
Speaker 2: do this.
Speaker 6: I love it so much.
Speaker 11: It makes me so happy.
Speaker 2: The win from Swift on last night's CBS broadcast breaks
Speaker 2: a Grammy's record for most wins in the category with four.
Speaker 3: Finally, Karen, a couple of business executives have been added
Speaker 3: to Harvard University's governing board, former MERC CEO Ken Fraser
Speaker 3: and KKR co CEO Joseph Bayer. Joining that says Harvard
Speaker 3: continues to deal with intense scrutiny and criticism from alumni, lawmakers,
Speaker 3: and faculty over its handling of on campus anti semitism.
Speaker 2: Nathan, thanks. It's time now for a look at some
Speaker 2: of the other stories making news around the world, and
Speaker 2: for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Amy, Good Morning, Good.
Speaker 6: Morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says a Republican backed
Speaker 6: effort to impeach Homeland Security secretary of the Hondre new
Speaker 6: Yorcas is completely different from the Democratic backed impeachment of
Speaker 6: former President Trump.
Speaker 12: We have followed the facts where they have led, not
Speaker 12: for political purposes, not because we take pleasure in this.
Speaker 12: It's again a heavy thing to look at the impeachment
Speaker 12: of a president or a cabinet secretary.
Speaker 6: Johnson tell's NBC's Meet the Press. The Republican led committees
Speaker 6: have methodically gone through the impeachment process and determined new
Speaker 6: Orcus broke the law. The vote on the articles of
Speaker 6: impeachment was strictly a party line vote, but Johnson says
Speaker 6: it's still not for political purposes. Nikki Haley was back
Speaker 6: on the campaign trail in her home state of South
Speaker 6: Carolina yesterday, fresh offer surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live,
Speaker 6: addressing a crowd of about one thousand people on Daniel
Speaker 6: Island and Charleston. Hailey continued to attack her chief rival,
Speaker 6: former President Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: But you got to acknowledge the fact he can't win
Speaker 2: a general election. So you can vote for him all
Speaker 2: day long and he can come out of this primary,
Speaker 2: but he won't win a general.
Speaker 6: The South Carolina Republican presidential primary will be held February
Speaker 6: twenty fourth, but the Democratic primary in South Carolina was Saturday,
Speaker 6: and President Biden was victorious in the first Democratic presidential
Speaker 6: primary in the nation. He saw an overwhelming victory over
Speaker 6: Congressman Dean Phillips and author Mary and Williamson. President Biden
Speaker 6: then spent time campaigning in Las Vegas, Nevada, where he
Speaker 6: talked about the naysayers who were convinced a recession is
Speaker 6: around the corner.
Speaker 4: How many times you hear when I first got elected
Speaker 4: president my policy, We're going to bring a recession next month,
Speaker 4: every month, none a merceand it anymore.
Speaker 6: President Biden's stop came two days before Nevada's Democratic presidential primary.
Speaker 6: California Governor Gavin Newsom is declaring a state of emergency
Speaker 6: for eight counties in southern California. Newsom says high winds
Speaker 6: and heavy rains have already impacted several areas of southern California.
Speaker 6: The state has already mobilized a record eighty five hundred
Speaker 6: state coordinated Emergency Response assets ready to respond to potential
Speaker 6: flooding and landslides. Global news twenty four hours a day
Speaker 6: and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm
Speaker 6: Amy Morris, and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 2: All right, Amy, Thanks. We do bring you news throughout
Speaker 2: the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now you
Speaker 2: can get the latest news on demand whenever you want it.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines
Speaker 2: right at the click of a button. Get informed on
Speaker 2: your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News
Speaker 2: Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com plus Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. By thirty four
Speaker 2: on Wall Street Time Now for a look at the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sports update, here's John stash Hour John Yarn.
Speaker 9: The World Cup soccer is coming to North America in
Speaker 9: twenty twenty six. In a lot of cities whe're lining
Speaker 9: up to host the championship game. The winner East rot Theford,
Speaker 9: New Jersey MetLife getze. Despite Dallas having a Yager Stadium,
Speaker 9: they'll get a semi final game, so will Atlanta. Miami
Speaker 9: will host the bronze medal game, the first game involved
Speaker 9: in the United States. We'll be in La Las Vegas,
Speaker 9: hosting the Super Bowl for obviously the first time. The
Speaker 9: Chiefs in forty nine ers arrived last night. We'll start
Speaker 9: meeting the media. The sievening Patrick Mahomes may get asked
Speaker 9: about his father. The former Mets pitcher Pat Mahomes's got
Speaker 9: a DWI in Tyler, Texas. He has learned it's the
Speaker 9: third one he's received and that he served forty days
Speaker 9: in jail. In twenty eighteen, they played the Pro Bowl.
Speaker 9: It was Flagg football on a fifty yard field in Orlando,
Speaker 9: and for what it's worth, the NFC won sixty four
Speaker 9: fifty nine with Baker Mayfield the Tampa Bay QB the
Speaker 9: MVP Eli Manning coaching the NFC to victory over King's brother.
Speaker 9: They currently unemployed. Bill Belichick took out a full page
Speaker 9: ad in Sunday's Boston Globe, expressing his gratitude to Patriots fans.
Speaker 9: They couldn't play golf at Pebble Beach yesterday and won't
Speaker 9: even try today, So it's the first PG events in
Speaker 9: twenty sixteen. Green shortened Wyndham Clark off that sensational third
Speaker 9: round of six, gets his first victory since he won
Speaker 9: the US Open last year. College basketball battle for first
Speaker 9: place in the Big Ten, second ranked Purdue one at
Speaker 9: sixth rank Wisconsin seventy five to sixty nine. Also in
Speaker 9: the Big Tan, Illinois beat Nebraska Pac twelve, Arizona knockdoff Stanford,
Speaker 9: Big East, Villanova Beach Properts John Stash. That were Bloomberg.
Speaker 11: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 11: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SYRIASXAM, the Bloomberg Business Appen,
Speaker 11: Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. That
Speaker 3: first cut from the FED might have to wait till
Speaker 3: after March. That's what we heard from FED shaw Jerome Powell,
Speaker 3: reiterating a message we heard from the January meeting in
Speaker 3: his first interview with CBS's Sixty Minutes since twenty twenty one,
Speaker 3: when inflation was just starting to surge, but with price
Speaker 3: pressures now on the decline for nearly a year, J
Speaker 3: Powell was asked, why not cut now?
Speaker 4: We want to see more evidence that inflation is moving
Speaker 4: sustainably down to two percent. We have some confidence in that,
Speaker 4: our confidence is rising. We just want some more confidence
Speaker 4: before we take that very important step step of beginning
Speaker 4: to cut interest rates.
Speaker 3: And again that was FED share Jpowen interview airing last
Speaker 3: night on CBS's sixty Minutes for More. We're joined by
Speaker 3: Lori Calvacina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC
Speaker 3: Capital Markets. Thisays a message that we've heard before from
Speaker 3: this chairman and from policymakers across the FED. Lorie, is
Speaker 3: there a read through to stocks from what we're getting
Speaker 3: from this Federal Reserve?
Speaker 13: So I think that you know, in terms of the
Speaker 13: pushback on the March expectations. Over at RBC, we've been
Speaker 13: a little bit confused why those March expectations were there
Speaker 13: to begin with. Our team's call has always been for
Speaker 13: a June start of the cutting cycle. I do think though,
Speaker 13: you have to pay attention to what was priced into
Speaker 13: the market, and we are sitting at a point where
Speaker 13: there was a lot of excitement about rate cuts in
Speaker 13: twenty twenty four that was baked into the stock market
Speaker 13: in that monster fourth quarter rally. We've seen we've got
Speaker 13: sentiment indicators that are sitting around a sort of dangerous
Speaker 13: levels right now or worry some levels at least in
Speaker 13: the short term. And so it wouldn't you know, surprise
Speaker 13: me if this does have a little bit of a
Speaker 13: negative impact in the short term, but I would say
Speaker 13: overall doesn't really do anything to derail our constructive view
Speaker 13: on the year.
Speaker 3: You pushed yourself back a bit by saying that sentiments
Speaker 3: at dangerous levels. What's Scott you concerned about? Where sentiment
Speaker 3: is right now?
Speaker 13: So the one you know where I would maybe apply
Speaker 13: the more sort of dangerous term would be looking at
Speaker 13: the weekly CFTC data, which frankly, if you look at
Speaker 13: Byside positioning in US equity futures and you combine all
Speaker 13: the contracts together, we're actually sitting above levels that we
Speaker 13: saw back in early twenty eighteen and twenty twenty, as
Speaker 13: well as you know, well above the highest frankly of
Speaker 13: twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty two. So you see
Speaker 13: major indications of frost there when you look at the
Speaker 13: AAII survey, which is an indicator I like a little
Speaker 13: bit better. We have more history on that, we can
Speaker 13: do more back testing. That one's hovering around one standard
Speaker 13: deviation above the long term average in terms of net bullishness,
Speaker 13: got their early December, was sitting there early January. It's
Speaker 13: pulled back just a little bit, so it's right below
Speaker 13: that one standard deviation mark right now. That one is
Speaker 13: telling you to be looking out for a short term
Speaker 13: pullback in the equity market, but more like a six
Speaker 13: and a half percent gain on the year, so not
Speaker 13: quite as worrisome as that institutional data set from CSPC.
Speaker 3: How big a pullback could we see though, given what
Speaker 3: you're seeing in those indicators, so.
Speaker 13: You now we haven't put a number on it. I
Speaker 13: would say that anytime you start thinking about pullbacks in
Speaker 13: the US equity market, you know, kind of a garden variety,
Speaker 13: something that's typical and nothing to get too concerned about,
Speaker 13: would be anywhere from say five percent to ten percent,
Speaker 13: and that's you know, really kind of looking at an outlier.
Speaker 13: If you get anything beyond ten percent, you're really kind
Speaker 13: of getting into growth scare territory, and we actually think
Speaker 13: the economy is still on pretty solid flitting, So I
Speaker 13: wouldn't be looking for anything nefarious like that.
Speaker 3: What are you hearing from companies as they report earnings
Speaker 3: about their outlook for the economy. We've seen so many
Speaker 3: strong indicators of how this economy has been able to
Speaker 3: perform up to now what's the outlook that you're hearing?
Speaker 13: So I would say, you know, we read through a
Speaker 13: lot of transcripts and the thing we've written the last
Speaker 13: couple of weeks in our weekly is just that the
Speaker 13: commentary on the outlook and the macro backdrop is just
Speaker 13: very varied at this point in time. So on the
Speaker 13: one hand, you have a lot of companies who are
Speaker 13: talking about stabilization, who are talking about resilience, about consumers
Speaker 13: moving things around and being judicious, but not really showing
Speaker 13: any you know, significant signs of weakness. On the other hand,
Speaker 13: you do have some companies and we actually had one
Speaker 13: company last week use the word dismal, you know, but
Speaker 13: really highlighting the uncertainty of the geopolitical risks, of the
Speaker 13: longer lead times in terms of getting deal sealed. So
Speaker 13: it really is is varied, to be honest, and you
Speaker 13: even see that within industries.
Speaker 3: All right, So in our last minute, Laurie, we're getting
Speaker 3: into the heart of earning season here, another very busy
Speaker 3: week when it comes to reporting season. What's your expectation
Speaker 3: based on what we've heard so far?
Speaker 13: So I think that we're getting more sector color. We're
Speaker 13: going to have a better sense of the sector of
Speaker 13: winners and losers in another week or so. But really,
Speaker 13: the reactions to the earning speeds in aggregate haven't been
Speaker 13: you know, that's that significant. To be honest, We're seeing
Speaker 13: more muted reactions than what we typically see. So I
Speaker 13: think investors are looking for color on cost margins and
Speaker 13: that sort of thing. But I think, to be honest,
Speaker 13: this is just a reporting season we've got to work
Speaker 13: through where we adjust numbers down a little bit, get
Speaker 13: some slightly more realistic expectations in, and then we can
Speaker 13: move on.
Speaker 2: Wow.
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