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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: That is ariz in Treasury yields, Karen, and it comes

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Speaker 3: after more clues that a March rate cut is not

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Speaker 3: in the cards for the Federal Reserve. In an interview

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Speaker 3: on CBS is sixty Minutes with Scott Pelly, FED Chair

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Speaker 3: j Powell said policymakers will likely wait beyond next month

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Speaker 3: to cut interest rates.

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Speaker 4: I think it's not likely that this committee will reach

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Speaker 4: that level of confidence in time for the March meeting,

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Speaker 4: which is in seven weeks.

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Speaker 3: How would you characterize the consensus around this table for rapecuts?

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Speaker 3: Is everyone on board? Almost all?

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Speaker 4: Almost all of the nineteen participants who sit around this

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Speaker 4: table believe that it will be appropriate, in their most

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Speaker 4: likely case, for US to cut the federal funds right

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Speaker 4: this year.

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Speaker 3: That was FED Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview on

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Speaker 3: sixty Minutes from CBS, he says officials are looking for

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Speaker 3: more economic data to confirm that inflation is headed down

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Speaker 3: to two.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, we turn now to the latest in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East. The White House is promising more strikes on

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Speaker 2: Iranian forces and proxies after three straight days of punishing attacks,

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Speaker 2: but National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan insists the US won't

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Speaker 2: be pulled into a regional conflict.

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Speaker 5: We cannot rule out that there will be further attacks

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Speaker 5: from Iranian back militias in a racket Syria or from

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Speaker 5: the Huthis. We have to be clear right about that.

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Speaker 5: The President, in being clear right about that, has told

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Speaker 5: his military commanders that they need to be positioned to

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Speaker 5: respond to further attacks as well.

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Speaker 2: And Jake Sullivan was a guest on ABC's this week

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Speaker 2: and as the US and France iron it's also pushing

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Speaker 2: for an extended pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 2: to allow for more hostage releases from Gazap. Sullivan says

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Speaker 2: the prospects for a deal are not imminent.

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Speaker 5: Israel has in fact put forward a proposal, and as

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Speaker 5: Cutter has indicated publicly, the ball is in Hamas's court

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Speaker 5: at this time.

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Speaker 2: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made those comments on Face

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Speaker 2: the Nation from CBS.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, care and Washington senators have reached a deal to

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Speaker 3: provide more funds for border security and aid for Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: but there are still some hurdles Bloomberg's Amy Morris has

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Speaker 3: details from Washington.

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Speaker 6: Senate leaders on both sides of the aisle back the

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Speaker 6: more than one hundred and eighteen billion dollar compromise, with

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Speaker 6: the first procedural vote set for Wednesday. President Biden says

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Speaker 6: he strongly supports it, adding it would give him more

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Speaker 6: authority to shut down the border while making the asylum

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Speaker 6: process fair and more efficient. House Speaker Mike Johnson called

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Speaker 6: the three hundred and seventy page bill dead on arrival

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Speaker 6: in the House, which sparked reaction from Republican Senator James Langford,

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Speaker 6: who helped craft the deal.

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Speaker 7: I'm a little confused. It's worse than I expected. When

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Speaker 7: it builds border wall, expands deportation flights, expands ice officers,

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Speaker 7: border patrol officer, how it creates a faster process for deportation.

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Speaker 6: But Speaker Johnson says it just doesn't go far enough,

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Speaker 6: and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise says it won't even

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Speaker 6: come to a vote in the House in Washington. Amy

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Speaker 6: Morris Bloomberg Radio Right. Amy Thanks Sticking with politics. Former

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Speaker 6: President Donald Trump says he might impose a new tariff

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Speaker 6: on Chinese goods if elected, and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor

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Speaker 6: Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 8: Trump told The Washington Post he might impose his sixty

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Speaker 8: percent tariff on Chinese imports. He told Fox News Sunday

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Speaker 8: Morning Futures, it could be even more.

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Speaker 9: I'm not looking to hurt China.

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Speaker 3: I want to get along with China.

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Speaker 9: I think it's great.

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Speaker 8: But they've really taken advantage of our country, and we

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Speaker 8: turned it around. The comments add to a long list

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Speaker 8: of concerns for investors of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs has

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Speaker 8: said that a Trump reelection is among the most frequently

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Speaker 8: asked questions. Trump also weighed in on Nippon Steele's move

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Speaker 8: on US Steel.

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Speaker 3: US Still, you know what a name that is.

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Speaker 8: That's the most important name.

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Speaker 9: Fifty years ago there was no company like US.

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Speaker 8: Still now that Japan is buying it, I don't think

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Speaker 8: i'd let that deal go through. By the way, Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump on Fox in Hong Kong, I'm Brian Curtis, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, Brian, thank you. And other news involving China.

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Speaker 3: Policymakers are pledging to stabilize the country's slumping equity market.

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Speaker 3: The China Securities Regulatory Commission says it would guide more

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Speaker 3: medium and long term funds into the market and crack

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Speaker 3: down on legal activities. Some seven trillion dollars has been

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Speaker 3: raised from the value of Chinese and Hong Kong equities

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Speaker 3: since their peaks. In your early twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: Well in company news this morning, Nathan, another setback for

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Speaker 2: Boeing involving its seven thirty seven Max jet. Let's get

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Speaker 2: the latest from Bloomberg's John Tucker.

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Speaker 10: John, it's yet another manufacturing slip up, Karen. Boeing has

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Speaker 10: found mistakes with rivet holes in the fuselage of fifty

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Speaker 10: undelivered seven thirty sevens. Their supplier, Spirit Aerosystems believe responsible.

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Speaker 10: There's been a string of manufacturing lapses at Boeing, including

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Speaker 10: a near catastrophic panel blowout last month. Well, the FAA

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Speaker 10: has stepped up scrutiny of Boeing and has capped seven

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Speaker 10: thirty seven production until the quality improves. My shares right

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Speaker 10: now down two point three percent pre market, John Tucker,

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Speaker 10: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: And John, We're going to be watching shares of Amjen

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Speaker 3: as well. An experimental weight loss shot from the drug

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Speaker 3: maker that's taken less frequently than wildly popular treatments. For

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Speaker 3: Eli Lillian Novan, Noordisk appears to keep weight off even

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Speaker 3: after patients stop taking it. An early stage study and

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Speaker 3: the journal Nature Metabolism says patients who got a monthly

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Speaker 3: injection of Amgen's drug dubbed Manta Maritid lost up to

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Speaker 3: fourteen and a half percent of weight in just twelve weeks.

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Speaker 3: Some people kept it off up to one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty days after stopping the drug.

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Speaker 2: Well Nathan and the entertainment world, the records keep coming.

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Speaker 2: For Taylor Swift, she won Album of the Year at

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Speaker 2: the Grammys for Midnights. For me, the award is the work.

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Speaker 2: All I want to do is keep being able to

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Speaker 2: do this.

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Speaker 6: I love it so much.

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Speaker 11: It makes me so happy.

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Speaker 2: The win from Swift on last night's CBS broadcast breaks

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Speaker 2: a Grammy's record for most wins in the category with four.

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Speaker 3: Finally, Karen, a couple of business executives have been added

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Speaker 3: to Harvard University's governing board, former MERC CEO Ken Fraser

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Speaker 3: and KKR co CEO Joseph Bayer. Joining that says Harvard

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Speaker 3: continues to deal with intense scrutiny and criticism from alumni, lawmakers,

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Speaker 3: and faculty over its handling of on campus anti semitism.

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Speaker 2: Nathan, thanks. It's time now for a look at some

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Speaker 2: of the other stories making news around the world, and

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Speaker 2: for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Amy, Good Morning, Good.

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Speaker 6: Morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says a Republican backed

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Speaker 6: effort to impeach Homeland Security secretary of the Hondre new

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Speaker 6: Yorcas is completely different from the Democratic backed impeachment of

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Speaker 6: former President Trump.

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Speaker 12: We have followed the facts where they have led, not

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Speaker 12: for political purposes, not because we take pleasure in this.

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Speaker 12: It's again a heavy thing to look at the impeachment

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Speaker 12: of a president or a cabinet secretary.

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Speaker 6: Johnson tell's NBC's Meet the Press. The Republican led committees

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Speaker 6: have methodically gone through the impeachment process and determined new

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Speaker 6: Orcus broke the law. The vote on the articles of

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Speaker 6: impeachment was strictly a party line vote, but Johnson says

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Speaker 6: it's still not for political purposes. Nikki Haley was back

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Speaker 6: on the campaign trail in her home state of South

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Speaker 6: Carolina yesterday, fresh offer surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live,

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Speaker 6: addressing a crowd of about one thousand people on Daniel

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Speaker 6: Island and Charleston. Hailey continued to attack her chief rival,

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Speaker 6: former President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: But you got to acknowledge the fact he can't win

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Speaker 2: a general election. So you can vote for him all

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Speaker 2: day long and he can come out of this primary,

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Speaker 2: but he won't win a general.

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Speaker 6: The South Carolina Republican presidential primary will be held February

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Speaker 6: twenty fourth, but the Democratic primary in South Carolina was Saturday,

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Speaker 6: and President Biden was victorious in the first Democratic presidential

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Speaker 6: primary in the nation. He saw an overwhelming victory over

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Speaker 6: Congressman Dean Phillips and author Mary and Williamson. President Biden

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Speaker 6: then spent time campaigning in Las Vegas, Nevada, where he

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Speaker 6: talked about the naysayers who were convinced a recession is

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Speaker 6: around the corner.

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Speaker 4: How many times you hear when I first got elected

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Speaker 4: president my policy, We're going to bring a recession next month,

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Speaker 4: every month, none a merceand it anymore.

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Speaker 6: President Biden's stop came two days before Nevada's Democratic presidential primary.

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Speaker 6: California Governor Gavin Newsom is declaring a state of emergency

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Speaker 6: for eight counties in southern California. Newsom says high winds

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Speaker 6: and heavy rains have already impacted several areas of southern California.

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Speaker 6: The state has already mobilized a record eighty five hundred

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Speaker 6: state coordinated Emergency Response assets ready to respond to potential

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Speaker 6: flooding and landslides. Global news twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 6: and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm

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Speaker 6: Amy Morris, and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 2: All right, Amy, Thanks. We do bring you news throughout

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Speaker 2: the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now you

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Speaker 2: can get the latest news on demand whenever you want it.

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Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines

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Speaker 2: right at the click of a button. Get informed on

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Speaker 2: your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News

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Speaker 2: Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com plus Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. By thirty four

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Speaker 2: on Wall Street Time Now for a look at the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sports update, here's John stash Hour John Yarn.

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Speaker 9: The World Cup soccer is coming to North America in

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Speaker 9: twenty twenty six. In a lot of cities whe're lining

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Speaker 9: up to host the championship game. The winner East rot Theford,

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Speaker 9: New Jersey MetLife getze. Despite Dallas having a Yager Stadium,

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Speaker 9: they'll get a semi final game, so will Atlanta. Miami

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Speaker 9: will host the bronze medal game, the first game involved

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Speaker 9: in the United States. We'll be in La Las Vegas,

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Speaker 9: hosting the Super Bowl for obviously the first time. The

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Speaker 9: Chiefs in forty nine ers arrived last night. We'll start

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Speaker 9: meeting the media. The sievening Patrick Mahomes may get asked

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Speaker 9: about his father. The former Mets pitcher Pat Mahomes's got

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Speaker 9: a DWI in Tyler, Texas. He has learned it's the

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Speaker 9: third one he's received and that he served forty days

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Speaker 9: in jail. In twenty eighteen, they played the Pro Bowl.

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Speaker 9: It was Flagg football on a fifty yard field in Orlando,

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Speaker 9: and for what it's worth, the NFC won sixty four

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Speaker 9: fifty nine with Baker Mayfield the Tampa Bay QB the

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Speaker 9: MVP Eli Manning coaching the NFC to victory over King's brother.

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Speaker 9: They currently unemployed. Bill Belichick took out a full page

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Speaker 9: ad in Sunday's Boston Globe, expressing his gratitude to Patriots fans.

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Speaker 9: They couldn't play golf at Pebble Beach yesterday and won't

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Speaker 9: even try today, So it's the first PG events in

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Speaker 9: twenty sixteen. Green shortened Wyndham Clark off that sensational third

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Speaker 9: round of six, gets his first victory since he won

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Speaker 9: the US Open last year. College basketball battle for first

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Speaker 9: place in the Big Ten, second ranked Purdue one at

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Speaker 9: sixth rank Wisconsin seventy five to sixty nine. Also in

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Speaker 9: the Big Tan, Illinois beat Nebraska Pac twelve, Arizona knockdoff Stanford,

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Speaker 9: Big East, Villanova Beach Properts John Stash. That were Bloomberg.

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Speaker 11: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 11: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SYRIASXAM, the Bloomberg Business Appen,

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Speaker 11: Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. That

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Speaker 3: first cut from the FED might have to wait till

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Speaker 3: after March. That's what we heard from FED shaw Jerome Powell,

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Speaker 3: reiterating a message we heard from the January meeting in

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Speaker 3: his first interview with CBS's Sixty Minutes since twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 3: when inflation was just starting to surge, but with price

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Speaker 3: pressures now on the decline for nearly a year, J

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Speaker 3: Powell was asked, why not cut now?

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Speaker 4: We want to see more evidence that inflation is moving

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Speaker 4: sustainably down to two percent. We have some confidence in that,

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Speaker 4: our confidence is rising. We just want some more confidence

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Speaker 4: before we take that very important step step of beginning

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Speaker 4: to cut interest rates.

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Speaker 3: And again that was FED share Jpowen interview airing last

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Speaker 3: night on CBS's sixty Minutes for More. We're joined by

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Speaker 3: Lori Calvacina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC

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Speaker 3: Capital Markets. Thisays a message that we've heard before from

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Speaker 3: this chairman and from policymakers across the FED. Lorie, is

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Speaker 3: there a read through to stocks from what we're getting

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Speaker 3: from this Federal Reserve?

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Speaker 13: So I think that you know, in terms of the

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Speaker 13: pushback on the March expectations. Over at RBC, we've been

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Speaker 13: a little bit confused why those March expectations were there

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Speaker 13: to begin with. Our team's call has always been for

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Speaker 13: a June start of the cutting cycle. I do think though,

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Speaker 13: you have to pay attention to what was priced into

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Speaker 13: the market, and we are sitting at a point where

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Speaker 13: there was a lot of excitement about rate cuts in

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Speaker 13: twenty twenty four that was baked into the stock market

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Speaker 13: in that monster fourth quarter rally. We've seen we've got

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Speaker 13: sentiment indicators that are sitting around a sort of dangerous

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Speaker 13: levels right now or worry some levels at least in

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Speaker 13: the short term. And so it wouldn't you know, surprise

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Speaker 13: me if this does have a little bit of a

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Speaker 13: negative impact in the short term, but I would say

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Speaker 13: overall doesn't really do anything to derail our constructive view

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Speaker 13: on the year.

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Speaker 3: You pushed yourself back a bit by saying that sentiments

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Speaker 3: at dangerous levels. What's Scott you concerned about? Where sentiment

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Speaker 3: is right now?

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Speaker 13: So the one you know where I would maybe apply

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Speaker 13: the more sort of dangerous term would be looking at

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Speaker 13: the weekly CFTC data, which frankly, if you look at

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Speaker 13: Byside positioning in US equity futures and you combine all

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Speaker 13: the contracts together, we're actually sitting above levels that we

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Speaker 13: saw back in early twenty eighteen and twenty twenty, as

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Speaker 13: well as you know, well above the highest frankly of

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Speaker 13: twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty two. So you see

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Speaker 13: major indications of frost there when you look at the

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Speaker 13: AAII survey, which is an indicator I like a little

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Speaker 13: bit better. We have more history on that, we can

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Speaker 13: do more back testing. That one's hovering around one standard

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Speaker 13: deviation above the long term average in terms of net bullishness,

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Speaker 13: got their early December, was sitting there early January. It's

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Speaker 13: pulled back just a little bit, so it's right below

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Speaker 13: that one standard deviation mark right now. That one is

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Speaker 13: telling you to be looking out for a short term

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Speaker 13: pullback in the equity market, but more like a six

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Speaker 13: and a half percent gain on the year, so not

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Speaker 13: quite as worrisome as that institutional data set from CSPC.

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Speaker 3: How big a pullback could we see though, given what

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Speaker 3: you're seeing in those indicators, so.

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Speaker 13: You now we haven't put a number on it. I

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Speaker 13: would say that anytime you start thinking about pullbacks in

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Speaker 13: the US equity market, you know, kind of a garden variety,

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Speaker 13: something that's typical and nothing to get too concerned about,

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Speaker 13: would be anywhere from say five percent to ten percent,

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Speaker 13: and that's you know, really kind of looking at an outlier.

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Speaker 13: If you get anything beyond ten percent, you're really kind

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Speaker 13: of getting into growth scare territory, and we actually think

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Speaker 13: the economy is still on pretty solid flitting, So I

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Speaker 13: wouldn't be looking for anything nefarious like that.

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Speaker 3: What are you hearing from companies as they report earnings

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Speaker 3: about their outlook for the economy. We've seen so many

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Speaker 3: strong indicators of how this economy has been able to

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Speaker 3: perform up to now what's the outlook that you're hearing?

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Speaker 13: So I would say, you know, we read through a

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Speaker 13: lot of transcripts and the thing we've written the last

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Speaker 13: couple of weeks in our weekly is just that the

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Speaker 13: commentary on the outlook and the macro backdrop is just

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Speaker 13: very varied at this point in time. So on the

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Speaker 13: one hand, you have a lot of companies who are

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Speaker 13: talking about stabilization, who are talking about resilience, about consumers

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Speaker 13: moving things around and being judicious, but not really showing

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Speaker 13: any you know, significant signs of weakness. On the other hand,

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Speaker 13: you do have some companies and we actually had one

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Speaker 13: company last week use the word dismal, you know, but

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Speaker 13: really highlighting the uncertainty of the geopolitical risks, of the

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Speaker 13: longer lead times in terms of getting deal sealed. So

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Speaker 13: it really is is varied, to be honest, and you

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Speaker 13: even see that within industries.

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Speaker 3: All right, So in our last minute, Laurie, we're getting

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Speaker 3: into the heart of earning season here, another very busy

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Speaker 3: week when it comes to reporting season. What's your expectation

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Speaker 3: based on what we've heard so far?

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Speaker 13: So I think that we're getting more sector color. We're

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Speaker 13: going to have a better sense of the sector of

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Speaker 13: winners and losers in another week or so. But really,

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Speaker 13: the reactions to the earning speeds in aggregate haven't been

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Speaker 13: you know, that's that significant. To be honest, We're seeing

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Speaker 13: more muted reactions than what we typically see. So I

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Speaker 13: think investors are looking for color on cost margins and

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Speaker 13: that sort of thing. But I think, to be honest,

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Speaker 13: this is just a reporting season we've got to work

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Speaker 13: through where we adjust numbers down a little bit, get

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Speaker 13: some slightly more realistic expectations in, and then we can

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Speaker 13: move on.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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