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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing. We're sitting up to

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Speaker 2: cash touchdown. We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabai you wanna pull

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Speaker 2: and we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast. We're

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Speaker 4: here for week six, breaking down our favorite spread bets,

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Speaker 4: our favorite total of the week, teaser, moneyline, underdog parlay,

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Speaker 4: survivorpool pick. I am Chris Raybond of the Action Network

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Speaker 4: and we're gonna get to it by breaking down the

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Speaker 4: Thursday Night football slate.

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Speaker 2: But just a reminder before we get into that.

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Speaker 4: Download the free Action Network app for real time odds,

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Speaker 4: box scores, and the capability to track every bet you make. Now,

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Speaker 4: let's get right into our Thursday Night football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: Tonight's matchup features the two and three New York Football

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Speaker 4: Giants traveling to Foxborough to face the undefeated five to

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Speaker 4: zero New England Patriots. The Patriots seventeen point favorites, the

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Speaker 4: highest spread in the Thursday Night football history, Seventy five

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Speaker 4: percent of the bets eighty five percent of the money

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Speaker 4: on the Patriots. The over under currently sits at forty one.

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Speaker 4: Fifty one percent of the bets are on the under,

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Speaker 4: seventy three percent dollars wagered on that under.

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Speaker 2: Here to help me break.

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Speaker 4: Down this game and all the rest of them, As always,

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Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation, my guy Stucky. Who's

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Speaker 4: bets you can follow in the action app at Stucky two.

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Speaker 4: You can also follow mine at Chris Raybon Stuck What

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Speaker 4: to do?

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Brother? Coming off my first poor NFL

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Speaker 3: weekend in a long time, I mean really had some

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Speaker 3: bad luck. I have to say, take some bad luck

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Speaker 3: to have bad weekends, and good luck to have good,

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Speaker 3: really good weekends. Losing the Falcons Teas was brutal because

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Speaker 3: the Texans had third and five with two minutes to go.

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Speaker 3: A first down ends the game, and they scored like

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Speaker 3: a fifty yard touchdown. But my whole Sunday came down

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Speaker 3: to poor capping on the Bucks game. I have to

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Speaker 3: tip my hat to Teddy check down Charlie Bridgewater who

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Speaker 3: was slinging the ball. He made a bunch of spectacular

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Speaker 3: throws downfield. And look, that's really what it came down to.

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Speaker 3: And then I had to sit there on Sunday night

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Speaker 3: and watch all my survivor pools go up in flames

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Speaker 3: because of the Chiefs. And he has got a beat

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Speaker 3: up offensive line too, but well, mahomes can't move. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it just severely limits their offense. He's so mobile that

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Speaker 3: he can find his way out of it and then

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Speaker 3: connect downfield. But if he becomes completely stationary, it changes

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Speaker 3: their offense significantly. So that was a painful end to

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Speaker 3: a rough Sunday.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And speaking of beat up, that is what the

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Speaker 4: New York Giants are heading into this game in Foxborough

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Speaker 4: already ruled out Saquon Barkley with an ankle, Evan Ingram

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Speaker 4: tight end with a knee wide, receiver Sterling Shepherd with

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Speaker 4: concussion symptoms, and Wayne Galman, the backup running back to

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Speaker 4: Saquon neck injury. That is the top four players in

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Speaker 4: scrimmage yards for this Giants offense. They accounted for eighty

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Speaker 4: four of the one eight hundred and ninety six scrimmage

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Speaker 4: yards for the Giants offense.

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Speaker 2: That's sixty two percent.

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Speaker 4: They've also scored seven of the team's eleven offensive touchdowns,

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Speaker 4: and a guy who scored one of them, TJ.

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Speaker 2: Jones, they cut him a while ago.

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Speaker 4: So this team extremely shorthanded against a Patriots defense number

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Speaker 4: one in the league allowing six point eight points per game.

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Speaker 2: Stuck. How do you feel about this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you have your quarterback is healthy, Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 3: But quarterbacks under the age of twenty five are all

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Speaker 3: in twenty seven in Foxborough in the Brady Belichick era. Look,

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Speaker 3: I've been saying all year and depending on the number

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Speaker 3: that you got in the Jets game, the total New

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Speaker 3: England unders have hit every week. The totals market for

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Speaker 3: New England games is not caught up to they are.

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Speaker 3: They're like an early two thousand seen. Their defense is dominant.

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Speaker 3: It all starts with the secondary. They have three great

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Speaker 3: cornerbacks and Gilmore, mccordy and Jones. Their secondary is unbelievable,

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Speaker 3: allows them to do so much up front scheme wise,

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Speaker 3: you know, and the maan Noy and Collins up front

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Speaker 3: are excellent as well. So look, when coming into this game,

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Speaker 3: I said, I bet the under right away. We wrote

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Speaker 3: it up on the Action Network at under forty four.

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Speaker 3: I think it opened at forty six. I think it

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Speaker 3: might cross forty now. Remember the forty three is a

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Speaker 3: key number in NFL totals market since the extra point change.

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Speaker 3: Even when healthy, I was looking at this Giants team

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Speaker 3: and I was saying, all right, how are they're going

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Speaker 3: to really move the ball without Barkley and Gorman, without

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Speaker 3: these other injuries and Ingram and now their receiver Slayton,

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Speaker 3: Tate and Latimer, without Ingram at tight end of Ellison

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Speaker 3: in there, going up against this secondary. I mean they

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Speaker 3: could just man them up. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 3: how the Giants score. It's there's gonna be bad weather too.

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Speaker 3: I think they're just gonna have to hand it off.

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Speaker 3: They're got the pond. Hopefully they don't turn it over.

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Speaker 3: And the other side, what people have to remember is

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Speaker 3: that New England's offense, this is my other point it's

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Speaker 3: two sided with Patriots unders, is that the New England

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Speaker 3: offense is not as good and is not as explosive

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Speaker 3: as it's been. Brady's still going to get his and

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Speaker 3: a lot of it is due to injuries. Let's let's

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Speaker 3: be frank here. Then the offensive line is just not

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Speaker 3: an elite New England offensive line. So, you know, unless

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Speaker 3: New England goes out there and puts up thirty five

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Speaker 3: forty in bad weather, which which they could do, I'll

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Speaker 3: tip my hat to them. But it's just it's kind

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Speaker 3: of like last week when I said I can't see

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Speaker 3: Washington getting more than seven to ten, and the only

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Speaker 3: reason they did is on a broken play where New England,

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Speaker 3: you know, uncharacteristicly missed about eleven taps. So look, I'm

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Speaker 3: on the under forty four. It gets a little dice

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Speaker 3: here at forty it's either under or nothing, and I'm

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Speaker 3: thinking about laying it. I don't think I've ever laid

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Speaker 3: seventeen in the NFL. But all these injuries on the

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Speaker 3: Giant side on a short week, going on the road

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Speaker 3: against this New England defense, I mean, I can't see

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Speaker 3: the under and the Patriots both losing. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: only way I see this game going over is if

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Speaker 3: New England wins by you know, forty five, And I

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Speaker 3: easily could see a game being you know, thirty one

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Speaker 3: seven or something similar to what we saw in Washington

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Speaker 3: last week. So I'm thinking about it goes against everything

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Speaker 3: in my blood and everything I stand for with laying

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Speaker 3: seventeen in the NFL, But I'm thinking about doing it

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Speaker 3: here and I'm already on the under.

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Speaker 2: Don't think about it, just lay it.

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Speaker 4: Here are some trends to kind of help you ease

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Speaker 4: your troubled mind about laying so many points, according to

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Speaker 4: bet Labs, and you could check bet labs out at

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Speaker 4: betlabs sports dot com. All the kind of interesting against

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Speaker 4: the spread over under moneyline nuggets that I dropped throughout

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Speaker 4: the episode, I pretty much get all of them from

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Speaker 4: bet Labs, so you can go check that out bell

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Speaker 4: labsports dot com. But Bill Belichick, going all the way

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Speaker 4: back to two thousand and three, when the Pats are

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Speaker 4: home favorites by seventeen or less eighty nine fifty three

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Speaker 4: and three against the spread, that is a sixty three

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Speaker 4: percent cover ry versus sub five hundred teams sixty seven

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Speaker 4: forty and one against the spread, sixty three percent cover rate.

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Speaker 2: This is when you back Belichick. This is when you

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Speaker 2: back the Pats.

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Speaker 4: We also have a Thursday night football against the spread

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Speaker 4: trend that's just prime for regression because overall home favorites

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Speaker 4: this season are over in terms of covering on Thursday

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Speaker 4: Night Football, But going back to two thousand and three,

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Speaker 4: seventy forty seven and four sixty percent cover rate against

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Speaker 4: the spread, and favorites home or.

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Speaker 2: Road by seven or more points thirty.

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Speaker 4: Eight and eighteen against the spread, that is a sixty

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Speaker 4: eight percent cover rate. So just a ridiculous And I'm

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Speaker 4: not a big trends guy, like I use trends to

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Speaker 4: kind of parse out what teams might have in a day,

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Speaker 4: maybe not going into a flat out model or you know,

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Speaker 4: when you're when you're looking at just the players and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: But this is a team.

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Speaker 4: They've been coached by Belichick for so long, Brady's been

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Speaker 4: the quarterback for so long that you can really start

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Speaker 4: to rely on the trends, especially for a team like

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Speaker 4: the New England Patriots. I'm fully behind it. I actually

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Speaker 4: got them at sixteen. I actually also put a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a wager on the New England money line

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Speaker 4: at minus eight fifty.

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Speaker 2: It's up to minus thirteen hundred now.

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Speaker 4: So probably most people listening don't have the kind of

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Speaker 4: bank roll that's going to facilitate doing much with that,

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Speaker 4: But I feel pretty confident that this new England team

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Speaker 4: allowing under seven points per game is going to give

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Speaker 4: the Giants fifth. I think this is a good week

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Speaker 4: for Sony Michelle to try to get right against a

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Speaker 4: shaky defense. I think you'll see Edelman continue to eat.

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Speaker 4: Grant Haley's been a liability for the Giants, so I

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Speaker 4: think it will be business as usual for the Patriots

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Speaker 4: and would have no problem lay in the points here.

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Speaker 3: One of the reasons that I'm hesitant in doing so

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Speaker 3: is if you just go back historically, back to two

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Speaker 3: thousand and three, you know, and you just look at

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Speaker 3: all double digit favorites in the NFL, they're forty six

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Speaker 3: point nine percent against the spread. You know, if you

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Speaker 3: just bet one hundred dollars, you r ROI is negative

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Speaker 3: seven point two percent. You've lost about four grand. That's

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Speaker 3: over a sample size of about five hundred games. NFL

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Speaker 3: teams don't run up the score like college teams, and

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Speaker 3: you know they don't. They're going to take knees when

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Speaker 3: they can, and these are capable pros that can get

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Speaker 3: in the back door. But the one team that always

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Speaker 3: breaks all of these trends is the Patriots. They you know,

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Speaker 3: you go flat spots on the road against bad team,

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Speaker 3: whatever you name it, and then you just go against

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Speaker 3: the spread that the best coach, the best quarterback, the

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Speaker 3: best team, it's always the Patriots because they just exude excellence.

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Speaker 3: That's all they care about is all right, this next drive,

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Speaker 3: We need to perfect this next play. They're not worried

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Speaker 3: about next week or their opponent next week or flat.

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Speaker 3: It's really just about execution, which is why they've been

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Speaker 3: so successful against the spread, even though everyone always wants

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Speaker 3: to bet them. Speaking to myself here, if I'm going

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Speaker 3: to break you know, kind of my rule of thumb

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Speaker 3: and NFL betting, you know it's the Patriots of the

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Speaker 3: team that I should deal it with.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and if you're already currently a bet Labs user,

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Speaker 4: you know you can filter by everything imaginable, from coaches

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Speaker 4: to stats, to quarterbacks to road home daze off whatever.

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Speaker 4: One thing I always do anytime I am kind of

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Speaker 4: researching a trend where it's kind of a broader trend

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Speaker 4: is go and check and uncheck.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots filter and see how it changes.

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Speaker 4: Because, as you mentioned, Stuck, they are a model breaker,

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Speaker 4: a trend breaker, and have been for two decades plus now,

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Speaker 4: so again, my pick for this week is the New

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Speaker 4: England Patriots by seventeen, but they could end up winning

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Speaker 4: by a lot more, which makes for a great opportunity

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Speaker 4: for points betting, and you can do that at pointsbet

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Speaker 4: dot com if you're not familiar. Points betting is a

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Speaker 4: high risk, high reward style of betting only available at

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Speaker 4: the points bet sports Book in New Jersey. Basically, the

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Speaker 4: more points your bet covers by, the more you win,

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Speaker 4: and vice versa. This can cash out nicely in high

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Speaker 4: variance games. So if you're like overs, maybe you like

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Speaker 4: betting the over in that Houston Kansas City game you

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Speaker 4: think that one will turn into a shootout, then you

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Speaker 4: want to try and points bet because if that game

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Speaker 4: hits let's say eighty ninety points, you're gonna win more

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Speaker 4: than you would have by simply betting on the over.

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Speaker 4: So again, check that out at points bet sportsbook.

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Speaker 3: So basically you would say, you know, I want to

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Speaker 3: bet whatever it is twenty dollars a point. If you

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Speaker 3: bet on the Texans plus five and you know they

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Speaker 3: won by five, then you would get you know, ten points,

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Speaker 3: you know, times to twenty hours. But there's also the

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Speaker 3: risk on the other side, So if they would get

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Speaker 3: if they've got blown out by forty, you know, then

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Speaker 3: you have to pay out, but you can cap it

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Speaker 3: so you can say this is my maximum loss of

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Speaker 3: maximum win. The one thing that I've been thinking about

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Speaker 3: points betting is also handicapping injuries. So you know, an

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Speaker 3: interesting one to me is Chiefs Texans, which I think

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Speaker 3: the line is about right, but there's so much injury

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Speaker 3: concerned with Mahomes, right, and if he's not mobile and

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Speaker 3: or it gets banged up and he can't go all

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Speaker 3: of a sudden, I mean, the Chiefs could get absolutely

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Speaker 3: ran out of the building without Mahomes. I mean the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs without Mahomes, I mean, who are they? That's how

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Speaker 3: I think about it too, if there's like a key

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Speaker 3: player injury risk that you can try to account for

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Speaker 3: and try to capitalize on that upside on a game

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Speaker 3: that you think, you know, I don't think it would

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Speaker 3: be a blowout if both teams are completely healthy, but

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Speaker 3: if Matt Moore and not the Action networks Matt Moore

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Speaker 3: has to come in, that could get ugly.

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Speaker 4: And now, as we do every week, stuck, Let's conclude

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Speaker 4: our Thursday night football breakdown with the coaches pep Talk.

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Speaker 4: This week's pep talk comes as courtesy of Matthew McConaughey

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Speaker 4: from the film We Are Marshall. Great film, and we're

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Speaker 4: dedicating it to Daniel Jones and the shorthanded New York Giants.

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Speaker 5: I want to talk about our opponent this afternoon. They're bigger, stronger,

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Speaker 5: more experienced, and on paper, they're just better. And they

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Speaker 5: know it too. I don't want to tell you something

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Speaker 5: that they don't know. They don't know your heart.

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Speaker 4: They're gonna need about five different hearts to have any

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Speaker 4: chance at scoring some points in this one. So dedicating

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Speaker 4: that to you, Danny Dimes and the giant offense.

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Speaker 2: Suck time for the main event.

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Speaker 3: Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: They's steeper action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 4: And of course the Sunday six pack is when we

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Speaker 4: each take our favorite three spread bets of the week.

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Speaker 4: We can be on opposite sides of the same game,

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Speaker 4: but we can't take the same pick, and we'll kind

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Speaker 4: of talk through it and keep score. Last week I

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Speaker 4: was actually perfect on mine to pull even with stuck

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Speaker 4: fifteen oh yeah, fifteen to fifteen through six through five, weeks.

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Speaker 2: So whole new ball.

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Speaker 4: Game is they like to say, stuck. I believe it

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Speaker 4: was my pick first this week. Last week hit with

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Speaker 4: New England minus fifteen, Pittsburgh and Green Bay, also the

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Speaker 4: Giant Viking total under forty three. You hit with the

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Speaker 4: Carolina Panthers of course yet again, and the Falcons.

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Speaker 2: Texans over forty eight.

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Speaker 4: But the Bucks and the Titans both let you down.

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Speaker 3: Santo's just missed another field goal.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, man, And we'll talk about that game right now. Actually,

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Speaker 4: because and you know me, this is this is totally

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Speaker 4: off brand for me, stuck, So like, get ready for

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Speaker 4: this one. But with my first pick, I am taking

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Speaker 4: the Denver Broncos. Wow, short home favorites against this Titans team.

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Speaker 4: I come into every week just looking for reasons. You

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Speaker 4: told me I was crazy last week, and I was wrong.

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Speaker 4: And but I will say this, admittedly, I come into

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Speaker 4: every week looking for a reason to bet against the Broncos. Uh,

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Speaker 4: they are covering at only about a thirty three percent

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Speaker 4: rate in the post Tubiac Weed Phillips era. However, when

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Speaker 4: I look for these reasons, that also means I am

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Speaker 4: diving extremely deeply into these Broncos matchups and I don't

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Speaker 4: like what I see for the Tennessee Titans, and I

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Speaker 4: talked about this in our Titans Bills Action Network breakdown

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Speaker 4: in the game guide last week.

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Speaker 2: Those are out every week.

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Speaker 4: One of my favorite things to read at actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 4: com slash nfl our ultimate NFL betting guide with previews

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Speaker 4: for every game. But Tennessee's offense they struggle. Marcus Mariota

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Speaker 4: struggles if the scheme plays do not work. They worked

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Speaker 4: against Atlanta, and they've worked a couple other times this year,

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Speaker 4: but this Denver defense, I've been kind of piling on Lway,

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Speaker 4: but I think he did hit with Vic Fangio as

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Speaker 4: a head coach, particularly for this kind of team, the

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Speaker 4: team they are right now, because they were underachieving, They

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Speaker 4: were losing some close games.

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Speaker 2: They were blowing some games that they shouldn't have lost.

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Speaker 2: Win or four.

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Speaker 4: Nette went for over two hundred yards against them the

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Speaker 4: week before. But Fangio made three really good moves on defense.

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Speaker 4: And I don't know if this is going to get

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Speaker 4: noticed enough by the market or even.

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Speaker 2: The book makers, but they benched.

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Speaker 4: Adam goattsis the nose tackle for Mike Purcell, so that

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Speaker 4: added about forty pounds and Purcell played really well last week,

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Speaker 4: a big reason why the Chargers ruined a lot of

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Speaker 4: Betts teasers, A big reason that the Broncos defense was

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Speaker 4: able to hold them in check because they needed more

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Speaker 4: beef upfront. That's why Fournette was able to go off

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Speaker 4: against them in the second half. The week before, also

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Speaker 4: benched linebacker Corey Nelson for undrafted free agent Alexander Johnson,

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Speaker 4: another player who played extremely well. He had thirty pounds,

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Speaker 4: so they really fortified their base defense against the run.

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Speaker 4: Held the Chargers to under fifty yards with Gordon and

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Speaker 4: Austin Eckler, they couldn't get anything going, made a couple

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Speaker 4: of stands.

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Speaker 2: Up by the goal line. Linebacker Todd Davis also.

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Speaker 4: Back, has come back a couple weeks ago, so that

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Speaker 4: is starting to help the defense. But I think the

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Speaker 4: biggest move was moving Kareem Jackson, the veteran from slot

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Speaker 4: corner back to safety. Safety was a position that he

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Speaker 4: was prepared to play, that he practiced all camp. He's

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Speaker 4: just better there kind of reading and reacting. Not as

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Speaker 4: good when he has to stick with opposing slot receivers

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Speaker 4: or opposing wideouts step for steps. So those three moves

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Speaker 4: combined really fortified this Bronco defense. And now they go

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Speaker 4: against Tennessee. They're number thirty one in early down pass

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Speaker 4: success rate. And you look at early downs because third

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Speaker 4: downs the distance varies, coverages get are different, You're running

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Speaker 4: specific kind of plays, there's specific packages, so you can

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Speaker 4: kind of remove some of the noise and it becomes

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Speaker 4: more predictive when you look at early downs. Tennessee number

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Speaker 4: thirty one passing, Denver number six on defense. Tennessee also

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Speaker 4: number twenty one running early down success rate in Denver seventeen.

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Speaker 4: So Denver has the advantage on both of the run

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Speaker 4: and the pass game when Tennessee's on offense, and then

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Speaker 4: when you look at the Denver offense, they've played.

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Speaker 2: Better than expected.

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Speaker 4: I will give him that they are actually number five

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Speaker 4: in early down pass success rate, Tennessee's twenty third on defense,

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Speaker 4: and Denver number ten in early down run success rate.

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Speaker 4: Now Tennessee is number six, but Denver has the advantage

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Speaker 4: almost everywhere you look in this game. And then you

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Speaker 4: talk about the Titans going out and signing a new kicker,

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Speaker 4: Cody Parky, the double Doinker, the infamous double Doinker, Brandon

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Speaker 4: McManus knows how to kick in this mile high air?

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Speaker 4: Does Cody Parky.

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Speaker 2: Know how to kick? We'll see He's.

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Speaker 4: Probably not as bad as all the doinks. But again,

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Speaker 4: this is a guy who I just I can't trust

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Speaker 4: the guy that goes on like a talk show tour

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Speaker 4: after he double doinks and his team loses in the

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Speaker 4: playoffs like this, that's the time when you're supposed to

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Speaker 4: kind of you know, it's all about the team.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna get better. That's probably why he was unemployed,

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Speaker 2: so a lot of reasons.

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Speaker 4: I think the Broncos and Titans are a lot more

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Speaker 4: similar with with Fangio making some good decisions for that defense,

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Speaker 4: and this is a Titans team. Listen couldn't do anything

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Speaker 4: against Buffalo, so I think it's a similar type of game,

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Speaker 4: low scoring game. I would bet the Broncos as long

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Speaker 4: as they were two and a half or under.

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Speaker 3: Look you mentioned special teams. I mean, I think Parky

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Speaker 3: just needed to change the scenery. I mean this, You're

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Speaker 3: talking about a guy who was a Pro Bowl kicker before. Now,

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Speaker 3: I will say his first kick is going to go

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Speaker 3: a long way. If he misses his first kick, who

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Speaker 3: knows what's going to happen inside of his head. I'm

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Speaker 3: shocked by this pick that you're making because you're betting

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Speaker 3: on the Broncos and then you're betting against the Titans,

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Speaker 3: who they just win the games that you don't think

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Speaker 3: they're gonna win. I mean, it's just the team you

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Speaker 3: never figure out. Like they roll the Browns and they

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Speaker 3: come home and lose Browse Side home home to the Colts.

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Speaker 3: The crowds then just listen. They were supposed to be

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Speaker 3: like Gay, there's six point dogs. Then they come home,

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Speaker 3: they lose to Titans. Then they go to the Jacks,

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Speaker 3: they lose, and then everyone's writing off. Then they go

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Speaker 3: to the Falcons and win, and now everyone says, o

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Speaker 3: are the Titans. And they lose at home to the

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Speaker 3: Bills on four miss field goals. The Broncos, I said

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Speaker 3: it last week, weren't as bad as their record indicated.

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Speaker 3: They were in every game. They lost two games of

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Speaker 3: the last second they were in the game against Green Bay.

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Speaker 3: I think it's just gonna be a close, low scoring game.

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Speaker 3: The totals below forty Tennessee is catching two and a half.

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Speaker 3: You can have your cover if you get it. But

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Speaker 3: this is a perfect teaser. He said, this is a

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Speaker 3: tease for my teaser, teasing Tennessee over eight through three, four, six,

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Speaker 3: and seven in what should be a low scoring game.

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Speaker 3: It should come down to, you know, a few turnovers

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Speaker 3: or two can execute in the red zone. Good defensive

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Speaker 3: teams would I expect me be very low scoring. And

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Speaker 3: Tennessee was a favorite before last week when Denver went

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Speaker 3: on the road got to win and Tennessee lost at home.

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Speaker 3: Now I get them plus two, and I don't want

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Speaker 3: to take them in a game I think is pretty

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Speaker 3: much a coin flip. But I'll tease them up to

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Speaker 3: plus eight and a half. You know, I'm a good guy.

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Speaker 3: I hope you covered.

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Speaker 4: Hey, I just want to say one thing. Don't sell

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Speaker 4: me short of my fit. It's still two, not two

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Speaker 4: and a half on the app and at more sports

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Speaker 4: boots than not. So don't try to take my little

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Speaker 4: hook away number one, but number two. It's really it

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Speaker 4: just comes down to I will always bet against teams

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Speaker 4: that are disadvantaged in the passing game, especially when they're

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Speaker 4: going on the road. And this is just a spot

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Speaker 4: where again not on brand for me, but I think

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Speaker 4: it's a more of a coin flip on a neutral field.

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Speaker 4: So getting Denver at anything less than three, I think

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Speaker 4: is still the right play.

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Speaker 2: Let's go stuck.

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Speaker 4: You got to get back on track because now we're

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Speaker 4: even again. You know, we both talked our trash early

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Speaker 4: on in the season at different times.

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Speaker 2: Who you got for your go to too?

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Speaker 3: Well, this week's all about as it is most weeks

435
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 3: with me over reactions in the NFL. And look, you

436
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 3: just said it, Cleveland sucks. That's now the sentiment that

437
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 3: Cleveland sucks. And so I'm going with the Browns. They

438
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 3: were I think a one and a half two point

439
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: favor before last week, and they lost in a spot.

440
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 3: I talked about this in the Sunday Pot. There's an

441
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: awful spot for the Browns back to back road games

442
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 3: that they're you know, going across country after that win

443
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 3: over the Ravens, the forty nine ers off of bye,

444
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 3: the forty niners just match up really well with them

445
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: because of their defensive front. Well, now Cleveland comes home.

446
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 3: Everyone's written them off, and now it's time to jump

447
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 3: back on the Browns against this completely fraudulent Seattle team.

448
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: People they stink that Dave just Russell Wilson, that's it.

449
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 3: They should have lost to the Bengals at home. They

450
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 3: got five hundred yards to the fucking Bengals. The Bengals

451
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 3: can't score against anybody, you know, except the Cardinals late

452
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 3: in the game, I mean, had ten points against the

453
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 3: Cardinals in the fourth quarter. The should have lost to

454
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 3: the Bengals. Then they beat the Steelers by two after

455
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 3: Roethlisberger goes down. Then they lose to Teddy Bridgewater at home.

456
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 3: Then they beat the Cardinals, so does everyone except the Bengals.

457
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 3: And then they beat the Rams at home in a

458
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 3: game where somehow Greg the leg misses a field goal.

459
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the most fraudulent four and one

460
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 3: I've ever seen in my entire life. And look, the

461
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 3: Browns have a lot of issues, mainly on the offensive line.

462
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 3: They're twenty six and adjusted sacrate. Not a problem for Seattle.

463
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 3: Seattle does not get pressure. Go look at all their

464
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 3: edge rushers. None of them get pressure. I think they're

465
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 3: twenty fifth and adjusted sacrate Seattle. On defense, they're also

466
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 3: twenty first against the run, so you know, so they

467
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: have no edge rush, which is going to be huge

468
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 3: for Baker Mayfield to be able to stay in the

469
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 3: pocket and then take advantage of and I'll say it

470
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 3: every week, take advantage of Seattle's secondary, mainly Tedrick Thompson.

471
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 3: And I said the Rams would just rip them apart,

472
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 3: which they did, and Baker Mayfield at home tends to

473
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 3: play his best. They hate to go to the narrative

474
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: route against the wall. Whenever one says they stink, that's

475
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: when Baker usually shows up. He should be able to

476
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 3: get the ball downfield here, have time in the pocket,

477
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 3: because that's essentially ruined their entire offense. If you can

478
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: get pressure off the edge against the Browns, it's going

479
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: to ruin their offense. And Baker deserves some of the

480
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 3: blame as well because he's bailing way too quick. But

481
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: Seattle doesn't get pressure, so you know, with their questionable

482
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: safeties and their scheme, and Tedrick Thompson still remains the

483
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 3: worst free safety in football for my money, until I

484
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 3: see otherwise and he grades accordingly. I think this is

485
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: a get right game for the Browns. I know it's

486
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 3: a short week, so there's the rest and prep advantage

487
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 3: for Seattle, but I like the matchups here. And also

488
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: you have to remember if the Browns are getting healthier today,

489
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: a practice both Ward and Greedy Williams. Denzel Ward and

490
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 3: Greedy Williams both practice Kendall Lamb one of their offensive

491
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 3: linemen who they can use at left tackle or right

492
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 3: tackle if one of their guys is struggling or depth,

493
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: or they may even start them, who knows. So they're

494
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: actually getting healthier down the secondary that will help Seattle.

495
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: It has one piece, and that's it Russell Wilson. And

496
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 3: you're gonna have two coaches who were going to try

497
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: to coach a loss here, Kitchens and our boy Pete

498
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: chewing gum. But I'll take Baker at home here in

499
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 3: a line that's just a complete overreaction to what happened

500
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: last week. I thought, and nothing changed from my opinion.

501
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 3: I thought that the Seahawks would lose in a complete shootout,

502
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: but I made it a pick and that game was

503
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: a coin flip and a complete shootout. And then I

504
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: thought the Browns would lose, and all I wanted to

505
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: do is bet the forty nine ers live, and that's

506
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: what happened. So nothing changed to me. But the line

507
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 3: has moved three and a half points. Take advantage of

508
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: this over valued Seattle team, and they're ridiculous four and

509
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 3: one record and bet the Browns at home. And when

510
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: I'm rolling with the Browns in my top pick, you know,

511
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: I gotta like it. So that's where I'm going to Cleveland.

512
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: I mean, both kind of off brand picks for us.

513
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 4: I got to push back just a little on this

514
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 4: Browns pick because I actually do like the Seahawks on

515
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 4: this spot. I thought I was good at fantasy football,

516
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 4: and then I ranked Baker Mayfield as a top five quarterback.

517
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 2: So I think that things have changed.

518
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 4: I think that, you know, now five games into the season,

519
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 4: I think Freddie Kitchens, Uh, it's proven to be a

520
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 4: struggle for.

521
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 2: Him coaching this football team.

522
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 4: We've seen some questionable decisions from him that made me

523
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 4: think that other attention to detail is lacking. Like, for example, uh,

524
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 4: you know, in the two prime time games, in the

525
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: first one they win against the Jets, but he has

526
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 4: Mayfield in there up you know, multiple scores late and

527
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: he's like dropping back the pass and gets hit and

528
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 4: like if he got injured out like you know what

529
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 4: happens if somebody falls on his legs or whatever.

530
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: And then in Wailston, San Francisco.

531
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 4: They take out Mayfield late in the game, they're down

532
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 4: four touchdowns, but they still have Nick Chubb in there

533
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 4: and they hand them the ball only to get a

534
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 4: three yard It's like, why are you handing Nick Chubbed

535
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 4: the ball up the middle after you just took up

536
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 4: your out your quarterback. You're essentially saying, hey, this game's over,

537
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: white flag. We need to conserve our best players for Seattle,

538
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 4: who long week of rest after the Thursday night game.

539
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 2: And you you have Chubb out there without the with

540
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 2: the backup quarterback.

541
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: You have Odell Beckham out there returning punts, which I

542
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 4: don't care if he wants to do it. The bottom

543
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 4: line is that game was already you know, out of hand.

544
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 4: And we've seen guys, I mean, if you're a Giants

545
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 4: and I think you remember Jason Sehorn, they put him

546
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 4: on like a kick return in the preseason and he

547
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: was lost for the year. You just don't do these

548
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 4: kind of things. So it makes me wonder about other

549
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 4: aspects of the game plan. And then you just look

550
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: at the matchup Seattle behind that Russell Wilson wet attack

551
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 4: number two early down success rate in terms of passing

552
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 4: on offense and number thirteen with the run.

553
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: Cleveland's defense has been decent against the pass number seven,

554
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 2: but they're twenty four against the run. We saw the

555
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: Niners go off.

556
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 4: But what worries me is their offense because twenty ninth

557
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 4: in early down pass success rate is the Cleveland offense

558
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 4: thirty first with the run. And that's despite Chubb having

559
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 4: some new statistical games, it hasn't necessarily been that consistent

560
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 4: sustaining run game. It's been some great plays by Chubb,

561
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 4: some long gainers, great for fantasy, but it hasn't translated

562
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 4: to keeping Mayfield.

563
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: In good situations.

564
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 4: And then you talk about, Okay, well they don't get pressure, Well,

565
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 4: they don't get pressure. I think Troyitman said it on

566
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 4: the telecast last Thursday when Seattle played the Rams. They

567
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 4: are playing coverage more than they have at any point

568
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 4: point in Pete Carroll's tenure sitting back and sure, Baker

569
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 4: Mayfield has had a lot of problems dealing with pressure.

570
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: He's bailing too quickly. We saw that in the forty

571
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 4: nine Ers game on Monday Night. But but and I

572
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 4: think this reared it's ugly head in the Rams game

573
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 4: that they had on prime time. Baker Mayfield's also been

574
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 4: one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when he

575
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 4: holds the ball, when he has time, when he has

576
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 4: two point five seconds or more. He's ranked thirty third

577
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 4: out of thirty seven qualifiers in passer rating per Pro

578
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 4: Football Focused. So Baker Mayfield hasn't been good in any situation.

579
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 4: This has been a bottom four offense for whatever reason

580
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: until Freddie Chichens.

581
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 2: I think is gives us a.

582
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 4: Reason to back him, and he's given us none. So

583
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 4: like I actually do like Seattle here, I think.

584
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 3: You're reacting to what you saw last week. And look,

585
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 3: I mean, this team's really young and immature, so they're

586
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: gonna have ups and downs like this. And then you

587
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 3: mentioned their coverage has been good, Well, they now get

588
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 3: their two best corners back, so that's only gonna help.

589
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 3: And the reason that Seattle is playing so much coverage

590
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 3: is because they play historically just like San Frando's. It's

591
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: the Pete carrollchry. They play cover three and they have

592
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 3: no fucking free safety. Hedrick Thompson is horrendous and teams

593
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 3: are still throwing it down the field on them and

594
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 3: they're still trying to sit back there. You'll see him

595
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 3: play too deep and all because they don't have a

596
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 3: free safety. They'll have a free safety. You can't, you know,

597
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 3: play cover three and trust them in the middle of

598
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 3: the field, so and then you know they're there. I

599
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 3: don't even trust their corners. I don't trust any of

600
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 3: their safeties. So Seattle is not going to kill you

601
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 3: out of the back throwing out of the backfield, which

602
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 3: is one of the biggest weaknesses of the Browns and

603
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 3: their terrible linebacker.

604
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 2: Hey, they won the game doing that last week, Sam

605
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 2: frank did.

606
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 3: It's so much better. So basically all you have to

607
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 3: do is worry about Clowney ansa Rasheim Green. They've been

608
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 3: awful off the edge. That's it. The Browns can scheme

609
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: that I like Cleveland. Don't let me down, Browns. Where

610
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: are you going to your second pick?

611
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two point.

612
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: Five Raven's betting hun Kyler Murray.

613
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 4: And yeah, of course I am because listen, this Falcons

614
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 4: team is another team that I think we have to

615
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: adjust like. It's not just a last week thing. This

616
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: has been a cumulative thing now this season. The Falcons

617
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 4: are not as good as we thought they were. Dan Quinn,

618
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: you know when you see a coach. I thought that

619
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 4: they would be better because he kind of knew what

620
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 4: to do. But but now it doesn't look as good.

621
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 4: It looks more like, you know, he was skateegoading guys

622
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 4: on both sides of the ball, continuously firing offensive coordinators

623
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: defensive coordinators.

624
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 2: This is a team that's just not been good. They

625
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: make mistakes that they shouldn't make.

626
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 4: Houston last week said, hey, we knew exactly what was

627
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 4: coming on defense, and now hey, they can go and

628
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: try to switch it up now after you know, that's

629
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 4: been the narrative. But the bottom line is they're also

630
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,479
Speaker 4: not very talented on defense. They lost one of their

631
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 4: best players on the back end, Ken Neil, So it's

632
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 4: a wonder that you know, their defense is struggling and

633
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 4: gave up fifty plus last week. Then on the other

634
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 4: side of the ball, the offense, yeah they'll score some points,

635
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 4: but this is one of the worst teams has been

636
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 4: for now the better part of a year and a

637
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 4: half at turning production in big numbers into actual points.

638
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 2: So this this just strikes me as.

639
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 4: A game where, yeah, we're giving the Falcons a lot

640
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 4: of credit for you know what they have been a

641
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 4: couple of years ago and they're going on the road

642
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 4: against a one win team and we think, oh, get

643
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 4: right spot for the Falcons. I don't know about that

644
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 4: in this spot, give me the points with Arizona dan

645
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 4: Quinn as a favorite. One thing I always like to

646
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 4: do is just see, you know how has this coach

647
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: kind of brought his team into games at different expectations.

648
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 4: I think looking at against the spread records in different

649
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 4: spots for coaches.

650
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 2: Kind of gives you an idea of that.

651
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 4: Dan Quinn as a favorite sixteen and twenty nine against

652
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 4: the spread, he covers only thirty six percent of the time.

653
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 4: If you made a one hundred hour bet every time

654
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 4: against dan Quinn as a favorite, you'd have a twenty

655
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 4: five percent ROI. So you know this is I think

656
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 4: Arizona is starting to improve a little bit. I think

657
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 4: Kingsbury and this team at Kyler Murray Doello improved as

658
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 4: the year goes along. Obviously a lot easier next week

659
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 4: when when Patrick Peterson comes back, but they did let

660
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 4: go a DJ Swerringer who was the weakest link on

661
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 4: that back end. Byron Murphy getting better, teams have been

662
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 4: really inefficient when targeting him over these past couple of weeks.

663
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 4: Atlanta's offensive line not right. I think this is a

664
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 4: matchup between two bad teams. So give me the home

665
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 4: team getting points. And interestingly enough, usually you don't like

666
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 4: to take the two and a half. You want the

667
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 4: three here. But two and a half point home underdogs.

668
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: If you go back to all the games in our

669
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 4: bet Labs database since two thousand and three, two and

670
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 4: a half point home underdogs sixty nine and forty nine

671
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 4: against the spread, that is a fifty eight percent cover rate.

672
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 4: It's a weird week this week, I think, so give

673
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 4: me the Cardinals as short dogs at home.

674
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: I think the Falcons are bad too.

675
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 3: Look, I want no part of this game. I don't

676
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 3: want to bet Cliff Kingsbury this Arizona team, which is

677
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: so bad in so many ways. A lot of it's

678
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 3: due to injuries. They're on their corners. Their offensive line

679
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 3: is a train wreck. It's just bad. But I said

680
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: last week, if Atlanta has anything in the tank, they'll

681
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: show up, and they you know they did to a

682
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: certain extent. But now, look, this team might quit and

683
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: I think Quinn has to go, and I think it's

684
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: going to get bad in that locker room. If I

685
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,719
Speaker 3: were to bet this game, and maybe I will, I mean,

686
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: the total has gone up a little bit. I potentially

687
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 3: look at the over. I know it's really probably a

688
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 3: public side to take, but you know, I think it

689
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 3: opened at forty seven, which is too low. Nownce up

690
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 3: to fifty one, which makes it a little tougher. But

691
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 3: Arizona's going to go really fast. They're going to spread

692
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 3: out Atlanta, which is you know, dealing with the loss

693
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: of their safety and their secondary as if he and

694
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 3: they don't get a ton of pressure. So you know,

695
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 3: I assume you know, your boy can run around Murray

696
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: when he's you know, doesn't find anyone downfield in Atlanta.

697
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 3: Even if they quit their they're still capable of putting

698
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: up a lot of a lot of stats. They're off

699
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 3: still going to show.

700
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: Up, not necessarily always points though.

701
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: I think it could turn into a shootout. But I

702
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 3: want no part of that game whatsoever. So I'm going

703
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 3: to move on to another disgusting game for my second pick,

704
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: and I'm taking the Jets plus seven and a half

705
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: against the Cowboys. It does hurt that Herndon the Jets

706
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: tight end came back. It is supposed to come back

707
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: from suspension and he ended up hurting Sandstream. Looks like

708
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: he won't play, which is does hurt. But Sam Donald,

709
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 3: and I'm not the biggest Sam Donald fan, but him

710
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 3: coming back is such an upgrade over Luke Falk, it's ridiculous.

711
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 3: Now the Jets didn't run Luke Falk with the first

712
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 3: team last week, which is huge mistake, and then threw

713
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: him into the fire. He might be the worst go

714
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: down if he never starts again, as the worst starting

715
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: quarterback in NFL history. And this is in a league

716
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: that has you know, Mitch Trubisky.

717
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 2: He has.

718
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 3: He finished with a ten a ten quarterback rating. Ten,

719
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: I mean zero touchdowns, three picks. It's just absolutely brutal.

720
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 3: So Sam Donald will at least give their offense some hope,

721
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 3: some you know, a chance at throwing the ball down field.

722
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,239
Speaker 3: Robbie Anderson maybe can catch a ball again if they

723
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 3: still have Leveon Bell. You saw what the Packers did

724
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: to that Cowboys run defense last week. But this is

725
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 3: you know, so the line was nine to nine and

726
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: a half with maybe Donald's gonna play, and then Donald

727
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 3: got announced and it's still seven and a half. It's

728
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 3: basically no difference it's in the dead zone. I think

729
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 3: this should be closer to six six and a half.

730
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 3: And on top of that, you know you're gonna get

731
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 3: The Jets are getting a little healthier, so they're gonna

732
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 3: have I believe it does hurt that Mosley I don't

733
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: think is coming back this week. I think he's listed

734
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: as doubtful. That's the expectation. But they are still getting

735
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: some help at linebackers, so Brandon Copeland comes back. Jordan

736
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 3: Jenkins also should go, so they're getting some help in

737
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 3: the linebacker for which they need. Safeties have been great.

738
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 3: Defense has actually played pretty well given all the injuries

739
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 3: they've had and the situations that the offense has put

740
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 3: them in. And look, I think there's much to be sick.

741
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,919
Speaker 3: So when Donald, you get Donald in there instead of fault,

742
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 3: I think it's a field goal difference. So this line

743
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 3: immediately should go under seven, and it didn't. And then

744
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: you throw in the fact that Dallas is not fully

745
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 3: healthy at their most important positions, and that's an offensive tackle. Now,

746
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: Tyron Smith and Lyle Collins could both play. They didn't

747
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: practice today or they were very limited, so they could play,

748
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 3: but they're banged up. If one of them doesn't go.

749
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 3: It is just an enormous difference in their offense when

750
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: they're don't have those two stud offense tackles, two of

751
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: the best in the NFL. Everything everything builds off of that.

752
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 3: So before the year, people were hopeful about the Jets.

753
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 3: They're going to go eight wins, nine wins. I wasn't either,

754
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: But I'm just saying now that this is rock bottom

755
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 3: and you're getting their quarterback back, You're getting some linebacker

756
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 3: pieces back. I think leve Bel could do some things.

757
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 3: You have a chance of throwing the ball down the field. Dallas,

758
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 3: with the banged up offensive line, this line is just fluss.

759
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 3: You have the Jason Garrett factor. He can mess this up.

760
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 3: This line just over touched on. I gotta think the Jets.

761
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 3: So that's some I'm wrong with my second pick.

762
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, And to your point, the Dallas Cowboys currently getting

763
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 4: seventy three percent of the bets teams that scored less

764
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 4: than ten points in their last game. They are also

765
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 4: getting thirty one percent or less of the bets do

766
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 4: cover at a sixty two percent rate going back to

767
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 4: three equitions, I loo baby, Yeah, So this is one

768
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 4: of those spots dak though with Jason Garrett is thirteen

769
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 4: to five and two against the spread, sixty four percent

770
00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 4: in terms of covering against sub five hundred teams, So

771
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 4: a lot of interesting trends at play here. Gonna move

772
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 4: on to my third pick, and this is a game

773
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 4: we'll talk about a whittle because I know we're.

774
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 2: On opposite sides.

775
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 4: The San Francisco forty nine ers plus three actually got

776
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 4: at three and a half, but plus three going to

777
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 4: LA to play the Rams. Now, listen, I know the

778
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 4: first thing that everyone's probably gonna say is Okay, San

779
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 4: Francisco dealing.

780
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: With some injuries to some guys who blocked. Certainly we

781
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: shouldn't go unnoticed.

782
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 4: Staley, the left tackle, McGlinchey, and us check look like

783
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 4: they are going to miss. But I don't think that

784
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 4: the Rams are quite as good as we think, and

785
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 4: I think the Niners are a lot better than we think.

786
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 4: And I thought this before. You know, obviously they dismantled

787
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 4: the Browns. I think that was more that reflected more

788
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 4: poorly on the Browns than it did on the Niners

789
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 4: being good.

790
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 2: They missed the field goals, they still have issues of

791
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: clean up. But I think this defense is really where

792
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 2: it's important.

793
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 4: They are number one in early down success rate against

794
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 4: the pass, LA ninth on offense, and then San France

795
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 4: also eleventh, and early down success rate against the run

796
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 4: in LA is seventeenth, so they you know, San Francisco's

797
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 4: defense should have at least an even matchup, if not

798
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 4: the advantage. When LA takes the field and Jared Goff,

799
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 4: he's going to struggle under pressure. He's similar to Mayfield

800
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 4: and that if you can pressure him and rattle him,

801
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 4: it doesn't matter how much talent they have on the field,

802
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 4: it doesn't matter the play calls, Like Jared Goff can

803
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 4: muck it up, and we saw that against Tampa Bay.

804
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 4: We've saw it for like the past sixteen games.

805
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 2: Now. I think they're getting a little overrated.

806
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 4: I think the three points that you're given LA for

807
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 4: being at home a little bit overrated in a spot

808
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 4: because it's not really a road game. You know, it's

809
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 4: in state interstate for San Francisco, so it's not really

810
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 4: a road game. Yes, they are in a short week,

811
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 4: but you know, I just don't think that these teams

812
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 4: are too different, and I think San Francisco playing better

813
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 4: right now.

814
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:38,760
Speaker 2: They were able to really.

815
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 4: Mask, you know, because Staley was out last game as well,

816
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 4: and Shanahan is one of the best at scheming in

817
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 4: non three to one personnel, which most of the league uses.

818
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 4: He's very good at scheming with heavy personnel. I think

819
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 4: they'll see some of that. And they're rotating so many

820
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 4: players on offense at the skill positions that I think

821
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 4: it's tough for because you know.

822
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 2: Wade full it's a great schemer, one of the best

823
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 2: to ever do it.

824
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 4: But you don't know exactly what the Niners are going

825
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 4: to do because there wrote to every week, different receivers

826
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 4: of playing, different backs are mixing in. So I like

827
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers chances to cover. I like the

828
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 4: forty nine ers chances of a flat out upset. So

829
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 4: tell me why I'm wrong.

830
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 3: I couldn't disagree more. I would have if you weren't

831
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: going sant Fran then I think I would have went

832
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: the Rams with my first overall pick. But this is

833
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: a This will be worth two points anyway, since we

834
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 3: both have it. The Rams dipped to minus three minus

835
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 3: one fifteen or the week and I grabbed them. I

836
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 3: still like them in minus three and a half minus four. Look,

837
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,919
Speaker 3: and I was the one preaching the Rams regression. Rams

838
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 3: regression which has come. But this is a classic by

839
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 3: low cell high spot in the NFL. After everyone saw

840
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 3: San Fran roll Cleveland on Monday night. Now you talked

841
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 3: about Shanahan scheming and prep short week against LA who's

842
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,280
Speaker 3: at extra time to prepare. So now you get McVeigh

843
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 3: and Phillips on a long week after a Thursday night game. Yeah,

844
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 3: I mean, look the San Francine. They beat bad Jamis

845
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 3: the Bengals, then they barely beat the Steelers, and then

846
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,479
Speaker 3: they beat the Browns in a good spot. Their numbers

847
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 3: say they're really good, but their schedule has been very favorable.

848
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,280
Speaker 3: They also had to buy in there. But the Rams.

849
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 3: I talked about this when the Rams played Seattle. The

850
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 3: Rams offense is built to shred this defense. This is

851
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 3: the Pete Carroll Cover three defense. What did they do

852
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 3: to Seattle last year? They scored thirty six and thirty five.

853
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,479
Speaker 3: They scored thirty again, or should have with the field

854
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 3: goal this year. Last year against the forty nine ers,

855
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 3: because the sport Niners don't have safeties and that's what

856
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 3: they're going to exploit. The Rams scored thirty nine and

857
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 3: forty eight points against the forty nine ers. They absolutely

858
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: drilled them, drilled that defense. They just put those put

859
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 3: their safeties into a headlock and strangle them. They're going

860
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 3: to do it again here. But the biggest thing to

861
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: keep in mind is Kyle Uscheck. He changes now in

862
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 3: a short week, losing him. People give Booger a ton

863
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 3: of shit, as they should for a shit that he says.

864
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 3: But he said that Kyle husch Chick's most important person

865
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 3: on an offense. And you know, you could argue Kittle,

866
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: but without Uchchak, Kittle's gonna have to block now. He's

867
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 3: going to to help block on Donald, help block on Brockers,

868
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 3: et cetera. Fowler. So Kittles and look for forty Nindreds

869
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 3: haven't had a great downfield passing attack with Samuel and Goodwin.

870
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 3: It's all their scheme in their zone running. But use

871
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 3: Check does so much. He picks up, he can pick

872
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 3: up any blitz his run, blocking, his pass, blocking out

873
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: of the backfield.

874
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: They run.

875
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 3: Their most successful formation is that twenty two. You're you

876
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 3: know twenty one. They use a fullback only the Patriots.

877
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 3: They use the fullback more than anyone else in the NFL,

878
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: the Patriots are second. Without us check, their entire offense changes.

879
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 3: You're now going to have I don't even know, and

880
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 3: that you're going to Dwelly. I guess Ross Dwelly is

881
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 3: going to come in as a second tight end. Maybe

882
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 3: they'll put him in the backfield. But everything changes. Without

883
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 3: use check that whole zone running game, all of his

884
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 3: blitz pick ups him in catching the ball. And then

885
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 3: also Kittle is going to now have to compensate and

886
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 3: help block. So this whole offense falls apart, especially in

887
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 3: a short week. I mean, how much can you scheme

888
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 3: against the Rams. So the loss of use Jack, I'm

889
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 3: telling you remember me saying that this forty nine Ers offense,

890
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 3: he was so important to number one fullback and blocking

891
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 3: and you name it, this guy who's Pro bowl er

892
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 3: since twenty sixteen for a reason, that is going to

893
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 3: severely hamper this Sandfran offense. It's gonna become a lot

894
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: easier to defend than now. I love the Rams and

895
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: this bilos cell high spot and their offense should shred

896
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,919
Speaker 3: these San Fran safeties, which really haven't had to work

897
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 3: this year. They scored thirty nine and forty eight last

898
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: year I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams score forty

899
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: again this week.

900
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 2: I still like the Niners.

901
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 4: I think that the issue for me is Jared Goff

902
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 4: going up against a strong defensive front. I think that's

903
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 4: why the safeties haven't had to work. So this should

904
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 4: be an interesting one. One of the games looking forward

905
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: to this week, and that probably will decide who ends

906
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 4: up winning the week. Between you and I, those we

907
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 4: are against the spread picks for the Sunday six pack.

908
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 4: Now let's jump into our favorite over under of the week. Stuck,

909
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:56,399
Speaker 4: who you got for your favorite total of the week.

910
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, we went with an over last week. We're gonna

911
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: go with it under this week. I do kind of

912
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 3: like the same ran over, but I'm gonna go with

913
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 3: the Sunday Night Football to get a plug in there

914
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: for that game Chargers Steelers. Under Look, the Chargers offensive

915
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 3: line is still an absolute disaster, and you're going against

916
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 3: the strength of the Steelers defense and their defensive front.

917
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 3: With to it and Heyward and Dupree and lot, they're

918
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 3: gonna cause havoc all day against Rivers. It's gonna really

919
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 3: and the Chargers are so banged up across the board,

920
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 3: so it's gonna really hamper their offense and the Steelers

921
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 3: on the on the offensive side, Look, I mean they're

922
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 3: down Samuel and now they're probably gonna be down Mason Rudolph.

923
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 3: But regardless even if Mason Rudolph goes or if it's

924
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 3: Devlin Hodges, who look, I was actually a fan of

925
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: when he was at Sanford. We talked about the moment

926
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: of the college POD's. Look this, the offense is not

927
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 3: going to be electric. They're gonna have to run the

928
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 3: ball all the time. And keeping keep this in mind

929
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 3: with the Chargers, they're the slowest team in the NFL

930
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: by far. You watch Rivers, he waits until there's one

931
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,439
Speaker 3: on the lock and he snaps the ball every fucking play.

932
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 3: So you have that on your side as well. But

933
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 3: I think the Steelers defense is going to really step

934
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 3: up here because they're going to dominate the line of

935
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 3: scrimmage against the Charger. So I'm going under there where

936
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 3: you going?

937
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 2: Tennessee.

938
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 4: Denver talked about it earlier, so I won't reiterate, but

939
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 4: I think Denver has the advantages in terms of their

940
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 4: defense against Tennessee's offense.

941
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 2: Both of these teams in the top.

942
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 4: Twelve and explosive pass rate allowed, so if they do score,

943
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 4: they're going to have to go up and down the

944
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 4: field most likely. And on top of that, you get

945
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 4: a little extra bonus because Tennessee could have some kicking

946
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 4: issues in Denver, and who knows, they might attempt field

947
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 4: goals instead of going for it, which actually helps sometimes

948
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 4: because there is some mile high air. So I like

949
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 4: the game under thirty nine and a half Denver. In

950
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 4: the post Manning era, the under is thirty two and

951
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 4: twenty sixty two percent and Tennessee's unders are twelve to

952
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 4: nine with Mike Fraebel. And now, without further ado, let's

953
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 4: get into our weekly teaser segment.

954
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

955
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 2: Okay.

956
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 4: In this segment, we each pick a standard six point

957
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 4: two team teaser that means you get six extra points

958
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 4: for each bet to widen the spread in exchange for

959
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 4: a slightly reduced payout.

960
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: Where are you going this week? Yeah?

961
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 3: I still can't believe Atlanta didn't cover that teaser, but

962
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 3: we move on. I'm going I already mentioned that I'm

963
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 3: teasing the Titans up to eight eight and a half,

964
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 3: just a perfect teaser spot a low scoring game, to move.

965
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 3: You know, a team who I think should be around

966
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,439
Speaker 3: a pick up through three, four, six, and seven to eight,

967
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna pair it with the Bucks in London

968
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,760
Speaker 3: the nine thirty start. I would play the Bucks straight

969
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 3: up here, but I am concerned about the travel. I mean,

970
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 3: what is the NFL doing to the Buck They were

971
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 3: in LA and then you know, two weeks ago, then

972
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 3: last week they're in New Orleans. Now they go to

973
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 3: London for a home game, and then next week they're

974
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 3: in Tennessee and then in Seattle. I mean, god, that's ridiculous.

975
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 3: That's five straight road games. Well, you know, the London

976
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 3: game in between, which is considered their home game and

977
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 3: the hardest travel of all. So they're there. The travel,

978
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 3: you know, could be you know, could catch up to

979
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 3: them here, but catching over seven in the game. I

980
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 3: make a coin flip. The Bucks already beat the Panthers

981
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 3: early this year in Carolina. I'm sure Carolina will have

982
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: that on their mind. But I think the Bucks bounce

983
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 3: back here in this This will be a close game,

984
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 3: go right down to the wire, uh like the first

985
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 3: one did. So I'll take the Bucks, who thinks should

986
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 3: be a pick just like the Titans and tease them

987
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 3: up through three, four, six, and seven.

988
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 4: I am going with the Los Angeles Chargers again, teasing

989
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 4: them down to half a point favorite, and then the Cowboys.

990
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 4: They're at minus seven right now, so teasing them down

991
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:52,439
Speaker 4: to a one point favorite. Listen with the Chargers again.

992
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 4: I feel like they should win this game. They proved

993
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 4: me wrong last week. But Mike Tomlin is thirty one

994
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 4: seventeen and two sixty against the spread as an underdog

995
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:02,760
Speaker 4: in his career, and as you like to mention stuck,

996
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 4: the Chargers under Anthony Wayne just six and eleven and

997
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 4: one thirty five percent cover rate at home, So I

998
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 4: definitely want to tease that down and just kind of

999
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,919
Speaker 4: bet on them winning the game, not by how much.

1000
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 4: And then for the Cowboys Jets, it's another game where Yeah,

1001
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 4: like DAK, they usually take care of business thirteen to

1002
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 4: five and two against the spread against sub five hundred teams.

1003
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 4: But I do think that this could be a closer

1004
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 4: game than we think, and they might try to run

1005
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 4: the ball a little more and the game just might

1006
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 4: not get away from the Jets the way we have

1007
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 4: seen with Luke Falk at quarterbacks. So yeah, you're going

1008
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 4: Titans plus eight Bucks plus eight five. I am going

1009
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 4: Chargers minus a half a point and the Cowboys by

1010
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 4: a full point. And now it is time for our

1011
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 4: underdog money line parlot.

1012
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1013
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1014
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 4: All right, So last week we broke our streak. Both

1015
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 4: of us lost Tampa Bay Pittsburgh.

1016
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:04,800
Speaker 2: For me, who you got to think? I told you?

1017
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 3: What did I tell you? Mark is down? He'll go

1018
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:09,719
Speaker 3: get recorded Braven's all win by a field goal.

1019
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 2: Of course.

1020
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 3: Look, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns. I already gave

1021
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 3: all the reasons for it. Cleveland Rocks. I'll be wearing

1022
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 3: my orange this weekend. How about you?

1023
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 2: I am going with the Arizona Cardinals.

1024
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 4: It's not a week where I love underdogs, consider the

1025
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 4: forty nine ers, but I really think that the Falcons

1026
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 4: they're kind of going down this Redskins path of just Man.

1027
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 2: The coach is probably not as good as he should be.

1028
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 4: The team could be checking out and they're just making

1029
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 4: and they're just finding ways to lose games. So I think, again,

1030
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 4: Kyler Kingsbury, they will improve as the season goes on.

1031
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 4: They'll get some things figured out starting to see that

1032
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 4: a little bit on defense cover tight ends better.

1033
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,760
Speaker 2: Last game. You know, swearings are out there.

1034
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 4: So Brown's plus one ten Cardinals plus one twenty that

1035
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 4: money line parlay would pay out three point six to one.

1036
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 4: To calculate payouts for parlays or any other bet, go

1037
00:48:00,600 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 4: to actionnetwork dot com Forward Slash Betting Dash calculators. And

1038
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 4: now we'll quickly cover the best of the rest, all

1039
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 4: of the games that didn't make it into any other segment,

1040
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 4: starting with the Washington Redskins visiting the Miami Dolphins in

1041
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 4: a battle of win with teams. The Redskins are three

1042
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 4: and a half point favorites, fifty eight percent of the

1043
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 4: bets fifty four percent of the money on the Miami Dolphins,

1044
00:48:24,120 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 4: and the total sitting here at forty one fifty six

1045
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 4: percent of the bets but only forty one percent of

1046
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 4: the money on the over Hope.

1047
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 6: You're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I want to

1048
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 6: make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network

1049
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 6: locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

1050
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are Lockdown

1051
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 3: of the Dallas Marriage wellkome everybody, So the Lockdown Lakers

1052
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 3: podcast Let's Go.

1053
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

1054
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

1055
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 6: inside scoop.

1056
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 2: So go to your podcast app and.

1057
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 6: Search locked On your favorite team, subscribe to your locked

1058
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 6: on podcast.

1059
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 4: Couple other big games that probably don't offer as much

1060
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 4: betting value as fan interest. We got the Houston Texans

1061
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 4: going to case Casey a four and a half point favorite,

1062
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 4: getting fifty nine percent of the bets but only forty

1063
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 4: percent of the money. Watson seven and two against the

1064
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 4: spread as a road underdog. The over under is at

1065
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 4: fifty four seventy percent of the bets on the over,

1066
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 4: seventy four percent of the money on the over, but

1067
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 4: the under thirty four nineteen and one.

1068
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,840
Speaker 2: In the Andy Reid Era, the Feagles go.

1069
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 4: To Minnesota to take on the Vikings sixty nine percent

1070
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 4: of the bets, seventy five percent of the money on Philadelphia.

1071
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 4: Matthew Freeman has a great article out now on Action

1072
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 4: network dot com where he mentions Mike Zimmer twenty nine

1073
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 4: to twelve and one against the spread at home thirty

1074
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 4: two to fifteen and one is a favorite thirty nine

1075
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 4: thirteen and one outside of the division.

1076
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 2: But I think it's going to be a tough game.

1077
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 4: Philly defense ninth and fifth in pass run early down

1078
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 4: success rate actually better than Minnesota ranks nineteenth and sixteenth.

1079
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 4: The total is forty four seventy two percent of the

1080
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 4: bet sixty nine percent of the money on the under

1081
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer home unders twenty six and sixteen.

1082
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 2: That's a sixty two percent hit rate.

1083
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1084
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 3: In regards to Chief, I mean, it comes down to

1085
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 3: the health of Mahomes and the injury report is going

1086
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 3: to be so critical, So keep an eye on that

1087
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 3: later in the week. We'll have articles covering that game.

1088
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 3: Philly Minnesota is an interesting game, Souse. I think it

1089
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 3: just comes down to ken Philly's defensive line cause enough

1090
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 3: havock against that weak Minnesota offensive line to compensate for

1091
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 3: the secondary, which should get carved up. If Cousins has

1092
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 3: time where he rolls out, the receivers have a big

1093
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 3: advantage against that week beat up Philly secondary. So that's

1094
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 3: a matchup to watch. What do you think about the Saints.

1095
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 2: The warwins at Jacksonville. The Jags one point.

1096
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 4: Favorites seventy six percent of the tickets coming in on

1097
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 4: New Orleans here, but only forty percent of the money. Also,

1098
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,680
Speaker 4: the total is at forty four and a half. We're

1099
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 4: also seeing some split action fifty seven percent of the

1100
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 4: bets but only fifteen percent of the money on the over.

1101
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 4: Teddy Bridgewater twenty six and seven now career against the spread.

1102
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's unbelievable, but I think I might be fading

1103
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: him again. I think on the road Peyton's going to

1104
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 3: treat him more as a game manager again. And this

1105
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 3: is a different secondary than the Bucks awful secondary. They

1106
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 3: should be able to generate some pressure as well. I'll

1107
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 3: be looking at the Jags. Stay tuned on the app

1108
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 3: to see if I end up putting it in.

1109
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 4: The last game on the docket is Cincinnati at Baltimore.

1110
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 4: Baltimore eleven and a half point favorite, Cincinnati fifty eight

1111
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 4: percent of the bets, fifty one percent of the money,

1112
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 4: total at forty eight, sixty two percent of the bets,

1113
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 4: seventy two percent of the money on the under Interesting

1114
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 4: trend I found for this game is we tend to

1115
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:35,799
Speaker 4: overvalue hardballs teams a bit when Baltimore is a home

1116
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 4: favorite in the division. He is just ten nineteen to

1117
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 4: one against the spread in those spots, if you faded him,

1118
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 4: you would have a twenty six percent ROI.

1119
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, the interesting thing is that Ravens defense man, it's

1120
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: allowing six point nine yards per play and they've had

1121
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 3: an easy schedule. That's thirty first the NFL. Only Dolphins

1122
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 3: have allowed more, and now they lost Tony Jefferson. Hopefully

1123
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 3: Jimmy Smith comes back healthier, but the secondary's a mess.

1124
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,760
Speaker 3: Miss assignments might continue, but it's a really good matchup

1125
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 3: at home for the Ravens. The biggest strength of the

1126
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: Bengals they don't have a lot going for them, is

1127
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 3: their defensive line and it plays right into the Ravens

1128
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 3: offensive line, which is one of their strengths. So I

1129
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 3: think the Ravens really could name it here, but their

1130
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 3: defense is definitely concerned.

1131
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 2: And now we'll close out with our Survivor Pool pick

1132
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: of the week.

1133
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 1: One pick one chance to advance Survivor Stuck.

1134
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 2: I just want to guote over you. I outlasted you

1135
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: in Survivor.

1136
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, you went with Kansas City last week, but I

1137
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 4: will admit if you follow me the appall you know

1138
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 4: that I also bet Kansas City on the money line.

1139
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 2: So nothing else to say about that, but what a

1140
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 2: dumb bet.

1141
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 3: That's the dumbest fucking bet I ever heard of. Yeah, look,

1142
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 3: so los injuries happen, and that's the risk with one

1143
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 3: game survivor scenarios. So yeah, I went up in flames

1144
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: with the Chiefs.

1145
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I mean, with you eliminated, I'm just gonna

1146
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 4: go ahead now and go with New England since I

1147
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:01,879
Speaker 4: haven't used them yet.

1148
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 2: But if you weren't able to choose New England, who

1149
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: is you pick? This week's Stuck.

1150
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 3: You know, I would probably either go with the Ravens.

1151
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 3: You know, the Pats are also safe as well, but

1152
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 3: if you haven't used the Ravens, I definitely feel safe

1153
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 3: using them. Other than that, there's you know, a lot

1154
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:19,959
Speaker 3: of close games, and I don't like these road teams,

1155
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 3: so Dallas kind of scares me. If you want to

1156
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 3: get a little risk your maybe go Chargers. Yeah.

1157
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 2: I think that's the same way I'm thinking. So we'll

1158
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 2: see how it turns out.

1159
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 4: Next week, be sure to listen to the other podcasts

1160
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 4: on the Action Network podcast channel. Stuck and Colin Wilson

1161
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 4: will be doing a couple of college football podcasts Friday

1162
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:43,760
Speaker 4: and Monday before we're back next Wednesday, and myself, Matthew

1163
00:53:43,800 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 4: Friedman Sean Corner will do the Fantasy Flex podcast that

1164
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 4: comes out on early Wednesday. So that does it for

1165
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 4: another episode. Follow Stucky at Stucky two on Twitter. You

1166
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 4: can follow me at Chris rabon and remember you can

1167
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 4: also follow us in the Action Work app at the

1168
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 4: same names, as well as get live odds, in game

1169
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 4: win probabilities, box scores, and the ability to track all

1170
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:08,919
Speaker 4: your bets until next week.

1171
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 3: Let's get this Schmiey Go pack, Oh Bull us some

1172
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 3: four and als