WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 16 NFL Game (Ep. 409) 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:03.160 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:05.560 your bets. It's be Joey pa joe Piza, Piere. It's 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:08.200 time to look ahead to week sixteen in the NFL, 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:11.479 and I'm glad. I'm very glad because Week fifteen was brutal. 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:13.880 I hated it. I took so many l's I can't 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.000 even stand up. But thank god Cooper Cupp kind of 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:19.320 saved my day a little bit, little ladder bet. Other 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:21.320 than that, I don't want to see week fifteen, in 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:24.400 the words of Kevin McAllister, my whole life. That's right. 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:26.040 I don't want to see any of you jerks again. But 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.920 these two jerks I love, Pat fitz Morris, Sam Hoppin. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.479 They're not jerks, they're great people. They're gonna help us through. 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.600 Take a look at the week ahead. We've got Thursday action, 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.280 Saturday action, Sunday action, Monday action, you name it, we've 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.440 got the action for you. And of course we're gonna 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:41.040 go through all of them here and try to give 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:42.400 you our early take on some of the games. And 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.680 of course, if you want to win some free stuff, 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.519 drop your comments below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. He 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.920 just might win a one year free premium upgrade to 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:52.839 Betting Pros, the best betting tools on the planet to 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.760 help you get all of the best bets at the 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:58.760 right time. Make sure you download the Betting Pros app too, 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:00.600 and you might get three free days of premium if 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.319 you're iOS member right now. So go ahead and get 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:05.240 that bad boy in and don't forget also to tune 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.880 into our Fast Break Bets NBA show every single Wednesday 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.399 and Friday at eleven am Eastern, where Matt Mody is 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.000 taking through the best in the NBA again Wednesdays Fridays 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.920 eleven am Eastern. Join the chat right here on our 0:01:17.000 --> 0:01:20.479 YouTube channel. Gentlemen, I don't want to talk about Week fifteen. 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.240 It's over. It's done pretty much. I got one more 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:24.679 game left, hopefully that will kill me. We'll see. But 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:27.720 let's look ahead. Let's take a look, and let's start 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.759 here with basically is a playoff game here, pat We've 0:01:30.760 --> 0:01:32.920 got the Los Angeles Rams seven and seven taking on 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:36.559 the New Orleans Saints. This one's in LA. The Rams 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.959 are four point favorites. That feels right to me. Forty 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.840 four and a half is the number that feels right 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:42.480 to me. At minus one ten. The best number you 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.160 can get right now for New Orleans is plus one 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.600 seventy five. Pat. You know, the Rams a good road 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:50.960 almost victory against the Ravens. They fell a little short 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.120 and no tee. Last week they looked good, but again 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:55.760 kind of took their foot off the gas, which worries 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.200 me a little bit. New Orleans coming off of big win. 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.600 They are right in the thick of this playoff, so 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:03.080 are the Rams. What do you make of this line here, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.360 any early value at all on Thursday night? Yeah? 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:09.440 I like the Rams, Joe. They just have a much 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:11.760 better offense than the Saints. They can move it through 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.600 the air with Matthew Stafford throwing the Cooper Cup and 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:16.919 Pooka Nakua, and they can move it on the ground 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:17.880 with Kyron Williams. 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:22.360 The Saints just the Saints have struggled in the red zone. 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.320 And the Saints have also not been a very good 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:27.800 team against the spread this year. They are four nine 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:31.120 and one against the number, whereas the Rams are eight 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.760 five and one against the number, So they have been 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:34.680 a good spread team. 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:36.520 I think there's a little bit of value on the 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:37.079 Rams here. 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:39.680 It does feel like a little bit also that balance 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:41.960 attack Sam of the Rams I think is really coming 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:44.520 along nicely. Cooper Cup's health starting to improve. I think 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.720 in the last couple of weeks that's been a huge positive. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.519 Matthew Stafford's looked very sharp. But Kien Williams running the 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.280 football in the last month or so has been really 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.680 I think the difference maker of this Rams offense looking 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.040 as good as it has and also getting back into 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:58.840 this playoff picture. So do you see value on the 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:00.800 Rams still at four? Is that our too much for you? 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.079 I do? I made this Rams by five and a half, 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.600 I think again. Sean McVay has this Rams offense clicking 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.240 on all cylinders. The Saints pass defense has been pretty 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.840 solid so far this year, at least over the past 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:19.160 several weeks, but the only competent passing game that they've 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.840 played has been Detroit in the last month. But New 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:26.399 Orleans rushing defense has been getting worse and worse. Los 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:28.800 Angeles continues to want to run the ball, like you 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.560 said with Kyron Williams, so I don't think he'll have 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:36.400 any issue diicing up this Saints front seven. So I 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:37.920 like the Rams a ton here. 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.640 All right, let's take a look at Saturday's first contest 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.800 at four thirty, you got Pittsburgh hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.080 Now the Bengals are road two and a half favorites, 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.040 despite the fact that you know, again no Joe Burrowy 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.040 got Jake Browning playing, but Browning's played relatively well. Here 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:55.280 Jamar Chase's shoulder in question right now as we're recording this, 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:56.960 we don't have a lot of definitive evidence if he's 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.360 going to play or not yet. Too early thirty eight 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.680 and a half is the nine Pittsburgh at plus one eighteen, Sam, 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:05.840 somehow the Pittsburgh Steelers fired Matt Cannon and the offense 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:09.160 got worse. It feels like, I don't know how that's possible. 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:12.960 I understand Getty Pickott getting hurt probably, you know, did 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.640 not help that cause. But you know, it's really tough 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:19.960 here to look at the Cincinnati Bengals in their circumstance 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:23.359 being road favors, but at the same time at Pittsburgh 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.680 feels right because Pittsburgh has been unable to handle their business. 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:28.560 So is this just the right call here? And if so, 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:30.600 do you feel good about investing in the Bengals? 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:32.800 I do. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.280 If I were to take a side. I picked the Bengals. 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.760 I mean, Jake Browning continues to prove all the haters wrong. 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.839 You know, looked a little out of sorts in the 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.320 first half against Minnesota this past weekend, but then really 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:48.320 turned it on in the second half against a Brian 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:51.760 Flores defense that has been playing exceptionally well this year. 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.560 The Jamar Chase injury does concern me a little bit 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.480 because Browning has thrived off of Yak in terms of 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.880 his production, and Jamar check Chase offers a lot of that. 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.200 But that said, the Pittsburgh defense just got diced apart 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:10.479 by Gardner Minshew with someone named DJ Montgomery as his 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:13.680 wide receiver won for most of the game. Cincinnati also 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.479 lost Dj Reader in this game this past weekend, which 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:21.120 is a huge blow to their defense. But I think, 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:26.440 you know, Cincinnati is just a slight tier above Pittsburgh 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:27.320 at this point. 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.280 Your thoughts here, pat because again the you know Pittsburgh Steelers, 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:34.560 you know, the great coach. Theoretically, that home field advantage 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:36.400 it seems to have dissipated. They lost back to back 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.039 games at home to the Arizona Cardinals and then to 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.880 the New England Patriots. So you know, I think we've 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:45.520 got to change our mindset. There's value on the Steelers 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:47.280 if you want to go take them on the money line, 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:49.640 but not that much at plus one eighteen. So I 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:51.840 don't know. It just feels like the Bengals, and that's boring, 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:52.640 but it feels right. 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:53.920 Yeah. 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.240 Can you imagine, Joe if someone had told you back 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.839 in August that the Bengals were going to lose Joe 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.520 Burrow to a season and injury and they would go 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.200 into Pittsburgh in Week sixteen and be favored by two points. 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:09.800 That just seems kind of unfathomable. But I get it 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:13.560 because the Steelers offense look completely broken. Against the Colts 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:19.000 in Week fifteen. They averaged four yards per play. Pittsburgh 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:21.360 was penalized eight times for one hundred and one yards, 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.480 so they had more penalty yardage than they had rushing 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:27.520 yardage seventy four yards on the ground. This just seems 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.880 like a team that's falling apart. The Steelers beat the 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.240 Bengals sixteen to ten in Week twelve in Cincinnati, so 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:36.719 maybe that gives the Bengals a little extra motivation. I 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:39.400 do like the Bengals. I don't know if I'm going 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.279 to bet it yet, because what scares me is that 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:45.200 we have seen the Steelers get outplayed and outgained on 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.640 a bunch of occasions this season, only for them to 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.240 win the game. Now, it hasn't happened lately, like the 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.719 luck is caught up with them lately. But so yeah, 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:57.040 like in the pools where I have to make a pick, 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.880 I'm going to take the Bengals, but I'm not quite 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.560 sure there's enough value to bet the Bengals. 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:04.760 Yeah, I think you might go some individual props in 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.960 this game instead. Speaking of an after though, I'll go. 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.200 Ahead and real quick before we move on. Actually, just 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:13.200 got a notification that Mason Rudolph is going to be 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:17.840 starting for Pittsburgh on Saturday, and so I think that 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.400 probably moves the line in favor of the Bengals a 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:24.880 little bit, not much. I don't know if it crosses three. 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:30.600 But yeah, we're getting Rudolf for Christmas to guide the 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:33.840 Steelers offense with his nose so bright it's perfect. 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.080 That's why you download my playbook too. Make sure you 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:38.960 stay on top of all this news as it breaks. 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:43.440 The Chargers are at home. They're taking on the Buffalo Bills. 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.640 Coming off a huge victory, Buffalo looking like they're starting 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:49.679 to figure it out. Joe Brady Cohen plays balancing the offense, 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:52.360 getting James Cook the football. What a concept. They are 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:54.840 now eight and six. The excuse me, the Chargers are 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:56.720 five and nine. This is a twelve and a half 0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:00.200 point spread here where the Buffalo Bills are favored by 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.000 twelve and a half on the road. Forty two and 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:04.440 a half is the number plus five twenty five a 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.320 huge number here for the upset of by the Chargers. 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:09.800 We're gonna get East and stick. We don't know if 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:11.880 we're gonna be a Keenan Allen. It's a big number here, 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:15.320 but after that dominant performance, it feels like pat the 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:17.840 Buffalo Bills are back on track. Is twelve and a 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.480 half comfortable enough for you to still invest in Buffalo? 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.200 Oh boy, people have been gobbling up the Bills, Joe, 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:25.600 Because I just checked DraftKings. 0:08:25.600 --> 0:08:27.920 It's fourteen right now. 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.840 Moved again And it is. 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:33.520 Like policy that I do not lay that many points 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:34.640 in an NFL game. 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.600 But like, I don't know how anyone could. 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:40.480 Possibly bet the Chargers after what we saw against the Raiders, Like, 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:44.160 does anyone really think that the Chargers are gonna circle 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.000 the wagons for Brandon Staley like that looked like a 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:48.280 team that was waving. 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.320 The white flag last Thursday night. 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:55.400 So the Bills, after beating the Cowboys, they now have 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.000 this reasonable path to the playoffs and they can't afford 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:00.200 to slip up here. Hard to imagine them letting their 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:04.520 guard down for this one. If I'm gonna bet it, 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:06.040 I'm gonna bet the Bills. I just don't know if 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.640 I can lay fourteen points in an NFL game. It 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:09.840 never feels comfortable. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.720 We see that head coach bounce when they get fired 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.840 quite a bit, but so far in Carolina we didn't 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:17.880 see it, and Sam, this doesn't feel like another time 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:18.720 we're going to see it either. 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:24.600 No, the Bills are quite possibly the best team in 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:28.800 the AFC, and with the quarterback that the Chargers have 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:34.480 now quite possibly the worst team in the AFC, fourteen 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.920 points is a lot, but that's I mean, they should 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.480 have no issue with that. I do think if you 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:43.440 do want to invest in the Bills and it don't 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.600 want to do it on the spread. Josh Allen MVP 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:48.600 at fourteen to one right now. I mean, I know 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:54.960 everyone sort of thinks that Rock Party has locked it 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:59.080 up right now, but they still San Francisco still has 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.560 a couple of tough games to end the season. The 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:06.120 Buffalo Bills could win out and take over the division 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.920 lead by the end of the season. So I mean 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:13.120 he's playing exceptionally well. I think voters might look for 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:17.040 reasons not to vote for Purty given all the supporting 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.319 cast and everything like that. So I think MVP right now, 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:24.239 Josh Allen is probably the best value on the board. 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.319 Certainly an interesting one. A lot of quarterback chaos potentially 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:28.760 in this next matchup. We don't know if Gino's going 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.040 to play tonight yet game time decision. We don't know 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:32.439 how he's going to make it through that game. If 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:36.200 he does play, then Will Levis is going for an 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.960 MRI on his ankle. So the Tennessee Titans are at 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:42.119 home in Week sixteen, two and a half point underdogs 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.719 at home Seattle two and a half point favorites. You're 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:46.400 getting forty two and a half is the number plus 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:50.200 one twenty on Tennessee. My early lean here Sam is 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.160 Tennessee because that pivot point to quarterback. I feel much 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.920 better about Tannehill than I do about Drew Locke, and 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.800 again Tennessee is at home, So to me, I think 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:00.840 this is actually an interesting game to kind of jump 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:04.520 on early before you get some more potential news that 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:05.960 could change this one a little bit. What are your 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:07.880 thoughts on this game here at Tennessee Titans in the 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:08.760 Seattle Seahawks. 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.800 Yeah, this one was a tough one to get a 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:17.320 grasp on given the quarterback uncertainty. I agree that Will 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:20.920 Levis to Ryan Tannehill isn't really much of a change. 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:25.079 I do think the under for this game is in play. 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:29.200 Both neither of these teams play particularly fast. They've shown 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:33.040 that their offenses can sputter at times. The defenses aren't great, 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:38.200 so that's probably the one concern. But I just I 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:40.640 don't really have an early lean on a side for 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.640 this right now and think this could be just an 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.600 ugly game from two offenses that have struggled. 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.360 Pack Can you make any money on the ugly? 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:54.360 We've got the West Coast team going to the Eastern 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.800 time zone for an early afternoon game, so like that's 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.240 the formula and I'm not going to bet the Seahawks. 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:01.920 It's just a matter of whether I want to bet 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:05.400 the Titans. I don't think they are going to quit 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.000 on Mike Vrabel, even though they've been eliminated from the 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:14.000 playoffs officially. But with Will Levis getting hurt, we're gonna 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:18.760 get a rusty Ryan Tannehill most likely at quarterback. I 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:20.599 kind of agree with you, Joe. If I'm gonna bet it, 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.240 I'm gonna bet the Titans. But right now I'm leaning 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:24.600 towards just walking away. 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:25.160 From this one. 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.439 All right, Garner Minshak going off a great game is 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.120 going to take the Colts into Atlanta. This one's in Atlanta. 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.199 Atlanta is two point underdogs at home. Forty four and 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:35.120 a half is the number for this game. You get 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:39.280 Indian at minus one thirty Atlanta plus one ten fits. Look, 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.000 this is a huge game for the Colts. Atlanta is 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.600 hanging on by a thread here, still relevant, but still, 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.120 I mean, they have got to come up with a 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.280 big victory. I know Ritters played better at home than 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.680 he's played on the road. It was a disasterately loss 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.079 of the Panthers. This is a dangerous game for many 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.040 many reasons, just looking at the quarterbacks, looking at the 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.720 trend lines, all these things. So that being said, taking 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.280 all that danger into account. You see any early value 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:05.120 in Atlanta, Indy. 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:06.760 I do. I like the Colts. 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.320 The Falcons are four and ten against the spread this year, 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.360 like they have been a terrible spread team, and they 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.600 have to be reeling emotionally after losing a game to 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:20.079 the Panthers that really damaged their playoff hopes. They needed 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:25.840 that one badly. Also, Arthur Smith, Joe good Lord. The 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:30.480 Falcons ran fifty one offensive plays yesterday and Bijon Robinson, 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:34.080 Drake London, and Kyle Pitts either touch the ball or 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:38.000 were intended targets on seventeen of those fifty one plays. 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.640 So you've got three early first round draft picks selected 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.960 to power the engines of your offense, three of them, 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:50.319 and they're only being, you know, getting opportunities on one 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.000 third of your offensive snaps. I know this is a 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.360 betting show, not a fantasy show, but Arthur Smith is 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.880 not someone in whom I want to invest my money, 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.720 and in fact, I'm very happy to be against him. 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.079 All right, Sam, are you happy to bet against Arthur 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:05.320 Smith and the Falcons as well? 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.679 Yep? It's it's death taxes and Shane Stiken being a 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:15.640 coaching mismatch this week against Arthur Smith. To Pat's point, 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:19.600 Michael Pittman in the concussion protocol, but they'll have the 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.120 extra day given they played on Saturday and then play 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.600 the following Sunday. Stiken also said that there is a 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.680 chance they get Jonathan Taylor back in this game as well, 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:35.040 which would be huge if if Zach Moss is out 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:39.440 as well. The Falcons just couldn't do anything against the Panthers. 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.400 And I know it was rainy and that game was gross, 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:47.080 but rain typically helps the offense. And Desmond Ritter just 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:52.280 had another terrible interception in opponent territory. They can't really 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.920 do anything there. I continue to think that the Colts 0:14:55.920 --> 0:15:00.120 are they are to an extent over you know, playing 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:04.600 their their talent and to a point, but they're doing 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:09.200 so and stacking up these wins. So I love the 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.600 excuse me the Colts in this situation. 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.360 All right, let's move on to the next game. Here 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.800 on our Slaves, we continue to break down Week sixteen 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.600 in the NFL here on BP Cleveland and Houston. Now, 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.440 hopefully you get CJ. Stroud back in this game. Cleveland 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:26.040 is nine and five. Sam, I know you love Cleveland. 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.200 I know you love that bet that we were talking 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.400 about not that long ago. They found a way somehow 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.400 to hang on to that victory at home against Chicago yesterday. 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:38.200 Houston case Keenum, Well, it's okay. We're still gonna be 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.520 winning football games no matter who they lose. It's amazing 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.280 Houston Texans figure it out. Dimiico Ryan is just a 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.600 terrific job with that team. Houston at home minus two 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.160 and a half. Forty two and a half is the 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:51.360 number plus one fifteen on the money line for Cleveland. 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:55.240 So that being said, do you have any early leans 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.400 on this game because this one is another one that 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:01.200 has huge playoff implication. Sam, Houston's at home, but we've 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:04.080 seen Houston in recent weeks also when the better competition 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.720 comes to town, they haven't looked quite as good. 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:09.760 Yeah. I went back and forth on this one a 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.440 couple of times when when prepping this morning. I do 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:16.360 think CJ. Stroud is back in this game. Nico Collins 0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:21.000 availability is another big factor in this, but it is 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:25.000 many as many passing yards as Joe Flacco is throwing 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.400 four I think it's making it seem like he's playing 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:32.360 better than he actually has since he's joined the Browns. 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.920 Among forty eight quarterbacks with at least seventy five dropbacks. 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:39.120 He ranks forty third in EPA per play, forty first 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:42.520 in success rate, forty third in CPOE, and thirtieth in 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:47.240 PFF passing great, So he's not really playing that well. 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.520 The Browns have come away with some wins, and the 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.680 Houston rushing defense has allowed a success rate over thirty 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.880 four percents just once in their last five games. They 0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:01.800 stuffed Derrick Henry this past week. So this is a 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.760 game that I think that line of two and a 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:09.000 half is right about on. And certainly, if I'm betting 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.080 the Texans want to wait until we know more about CJ. 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:16.399 Stroud's health, pat I want to bet the Browns. I 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.120 think there's something against theefanski another side of the coach. 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.760 There's done a terrific job here with this team defense travels. 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:25.760 We've seen that with Cleveland before. I think despite some 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.160 of the injuries and the issues they've had, Flacco found 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.040 a way to make some plays. I feel like the 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:31.840 Browns feel like they've got a little bit of magic, 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:33.840 which is not something that the Cleveland fans are used 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.520 to seeing, but it feels that way and to me. 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.880 This is that statement game here where if you're Cleveland 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.400 and you're for real go in, you beat a young 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.080 Texans scene that's still very wet behind the ears and 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:45.840 plus one fifteen on the money line. I think that's 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.120 where the value is. And maybe to Sam's point, if 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:50.720 I like Cleveland, maybe I wait because if CJ. Stroud 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.480 is announcing this game, maybe that number changes a little 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.119 bit more and I even get something better than the 0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:56.720 one to fifteen. 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.359 Yeah, it's not a bad premise. Joe bet the team 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.639 with the better defense in mid December late December, so 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:06.800 like I get that, and we've seen Joe Flacco, Like, 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:08.760 get this offense moving. 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:10.399 He is capable of moving it. 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.080 I mean he's averaging three hundred and thirteen passing yards 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:17.040 in his three starts. Unfortunately, Joe Flacco has also thrown 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:20.240 five interceptions in his three starts. And that's the thing 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.680 with Flacco, Like I'm kind of not eager to bet 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.800 a game with Joe Flacco because he is such a 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.920 wild card and he can just hand the other team 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:33.040 the game with his turnovers. But like he can also 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.760 I mean, if you get the combination of this Brown's 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.720 defense banged up as it may be playing like the 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:43.440 Browns defense and Joe Flacco clicking like they could they could, 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:46.000 even though this Houston team is overachieved all year, like 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.040 they could blow Houston out of the water, Like I 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.520 think the Browns have that sort of top end potential. 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:53.720 But right now, I mean, I just have no feel 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.840 for this one, Joe. I don't think I'm gonna play it. 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.640 Yeah, no, I totally understand. I mean, these are two 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.240 teams that have show you high points and low points, 0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.920 which always makes it tough. And again, looking in the road, 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:05.800 I'm looking at value. To me, if this game is 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:07.880 a coin flip, it's the value of the plus money 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:09.920 in Cleveland in the defense in December, as you point out, 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.600 but we'll see. I love CJ. Stroud, nobody loves Stroud 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:14.520 more than me. I just feel like Cleveland right now 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:15.879 is the side that I'm on to this one now. 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:17.800 I waited as long as I could because I know 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:20.919 yesterday was not a happy day for Packers fans. So 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:23.080 we're finally gonna get to the Packers here. I waited 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:25.240 let you guys get loose a little bit in the 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:27.679 bullpen before we put you on the mound. Green by 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.400 Packers six and eight going to Carolina two and twelve. 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:33.400 Carolina coming off of victory. Cremay coming off a loss, 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:35.320 would have thought that the Packers are four and a 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.720 half point favorites. Minus one ten thirty six is the 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.359