1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: This bill will reduce inflationary pressures on economy, just the opposite. 3 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: It's an inflation enhancement. I was a know last week. 4 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: I was a no last night, and I'll be the 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: first no on the board later today. Bloomberg Sound On Politics, 6 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: Policy and Perspective from DC's top names. The motion is adopted. 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: It's a big victory for what I call the Purple Tents. Yeah, 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 1: I think you know this is all about the Green Party, 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: the money. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 10 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,319 Speaker 1: The economy contracts for a second straight quarter, just as 11 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: Democrats resurrects President Biden's climate and tax agenda. Welcome to 12 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: the fastest hour in politics on a swirling day in Washington. 13 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: Will be joined momentarily by White House Adviser Gene Spirling 14 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: to talk about the argument over recession and what impact 15 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: this new legislation will have. We'll get another view on 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: this from our gold Wine of the Committee for a 17 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: Responsible Budget later this hour, and from our signature panel. 18 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano with us. 19 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: They've been focused, of course, on the President's agenda, since 20 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: it was called Build Back Better. You heard the news 21 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: break right here at this time yesterday. The Schumer Mansion Deal, 22 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: now called the Inflation Reduction Act of comes together three 23 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: major components climate, health, deficit reduction that please to President Biden, 24 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: spoke today from the White House. Experts, even some experts 25 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: who have criticized my administration of the past, agree that 26 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 1: this bill. This bill will reduce inflationary pressures on the economy. 27 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: It'll be paid for with a fiftcent minimum corporate tax, 28 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: along with enforcement of tax cheats, and an end carried interests, 29 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: leaving enough behind to lower the deficit, which the White 30 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: House says, in turn will help to cool inflation in itself. 31 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: Deficit reduction. Of course, you've also got lower drug prices. 32 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: Now assume in this passes to be negotiated with the government. 33 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: Republicans say, though it'll do the opposite, it will make 34 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: inflation worse, and they were quick to pounce on today's 35 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: GDP report showing a second consecutive quarter of contraction. Now, 36 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: if you've listened to this program the past week or so, 37 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 1: you know Republicans are accusing the White House of trying 38 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: to redefine recession. And we've been around the circle a 39 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: couple of times. On this year's House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. 40 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: Einstein once said, and we all know it, the definition 41 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: of insanity is doing the same thing over and over 42 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: and expecting a different result. So what you really should 43 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: do just go with changing the definition. Maybe people won't 44 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: here you are understanding there it is. But as we've 45 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: heard from our own economics reporters at Bloomberg here from 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: Mark Zany two days ago, it's just not that simple. 47 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: And that's where we start our conversation with Gene Sperling, 48 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: White House American Rescue Plan Coordinator, Senior Adviser to the President. Janus. 49 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: Great to have you back on Bloomberg. Thanks for coming in. 50 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: I'm not going to ask you if we're in a recession. 51 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. Are you worried that we 52 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: will have to experience one to get inflation under control? Um? Well, listen, 53 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: all we are trying to do is make sure there's 54 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: a balance and I think correct view of the state 55 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 1: of the economy now. And you know, we certainly understand 56 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: that the global inflation UH in our country UH in 57 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: the world is hitting the United States, and it's a 58 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: little comfort to American families going through the gas line 59 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: or the grocery line that this is a global problem. 60 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: They're getting hit with higher prices and that's definitely affecting 61 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: people's you know, sentiments about the economy. And you know, 62 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: we fully understand that even with the good news the 63 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: gas prices are down almost sev cents now, um. But 64 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: I think I think the things we're talking about today 65 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: offer a more balance view of the resilience that we're 66 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: also seen in the economy, even in the face of 67 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: the higher interest rates that are independent, FED is instituting. 68 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things you heard from 69 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: Chairman Paul, you hear from from us is that this 70 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: job market is still very strong. I mean, you know, 71 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: I was just looking two point seven million jobs over 72 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: the last seven months other than last year. That's the 73 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: most jobs ever created in the first six months of 74 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: the year ever in the history of our country. And 75 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: that's why, Powell, that's why we well, no, that's not 76 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: consistent with the notion of a contraction or a downtream. 77 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: If you looked at the GDP today, you also saw 78 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: that people that that spending in services actually contributed to 79 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: uh to growth and that you saw with the bank 80 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: earnings from City Group JP Morgan, they're saying they're not 81 00:04:53,520 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: seeing signs of recession among their vast number of con rumors. 82 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: Does that mean you know, we should take a rosy view. No, 83 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,359 Speaker 1: but I do think that there is another our word 84 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: out there, and that's resilience. And I think you're seeing 85 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: resilience that we we can at least hope can help 86 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: us get from UH this red hot economy of to 87 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 1: a more stable growth with lower prices as we go forward. 88 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: Just to ask you more about the labor market, because 89 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: that has been the refrain from the White House and 90 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: from others, from economists saying, look, this this is not 91 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: going to end up being a recession. We're not in 92 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: one now when you have three point six percent unemployment. 93 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: The President has said that Senator John Kennedy, Republican from 94 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 1: Louisiana was was talking about this on Fox and he 95 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: replied to what the President was saying, I'd love to 96 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: get your response to that. Here's what he said. He says, yes, 97 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: but unemployment is low. On employment is low, Well, there's 98 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: a reason for that. People aren't working. Um, you don't 99 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: look at the unemployment now when you look at the 100 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 1: labor force participation, right, And we've had a lot of 101 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: people retire, and we had a lot of people who 102 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,559 Speaker 1: refused to go back to work, and they're now riding 103 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: in the wagon and everybody else has got to pull 104 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: the wagon. And the bottom line is the economy sucks 105 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: and it's not gonna get any better. It's got a 106 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: way of words, Jeane Spurling. But I wonder where is 107 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: he wrong there? No, he is wrong, um, because if 108 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:26,239 Speaker 1: you look at what the kind of core core labor force, 109 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: which is twenty five to fifty four year old, it 110 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: is now fully returned. It's actually stronger was prior to uh, 111 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: the pandemic. Um. There is true that there, you know, 112 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: we could there were still a little bit behind in 113 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: getting everybody, uh some of the older Americans back, but 114 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: you've actually seen the greatest increase in labor force participation 115 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: over this period of time. And again uh for the 116 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: four year olds, the core workers. It's actually it's actually wronger. 117 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: So I really don't like that notion because it's it's 118 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 1: it's somehow blaming that there are people out there for 119 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: not uh you know, pulling their load when you're really 120 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: seeing people coming back worst using American Rescue Plan forty 121 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: billion dollars of it to get more people back in 122 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: the economy. I do think that there are some with 123 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: COVID and childcare that may be inhibiting some people. But 124 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: I think overall, the games have been strong, and that's 125 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: certainly does not you know, uh negate. The very very 126 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: strong job market and the unemployment rate reflects that it's 127 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: not creating a deceptive picture in any way. Janet Yellen 128 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: was asked today in her news conference how much the 129 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: labor market would have to cool or contract, if that's 130 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: a better word, to bring inflation down. We didn't get 131 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: a very clear answer on that because maybe it's not 132 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,119 Speaker 1: knowable or I don't know, Gene, maybe you're not allowed 133 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: to answer that from from the White House. Do you 134 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: what's your thought? Well, I think there are some questions 135 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: that are kind of back ways of getting the administration 136 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: to do what I'm not supposed to do, which is 137 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: common on the independent Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve. 138 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: But I think what I would say is that UM 139 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: is that I think there is a lot of evidence 140 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: that uh the things that were in the American Rescue 141 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: Plan have created a bit more resilience in places in 142 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 1: the economy that often have led to contraction in the past, 143 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: state and local governments contracting right now, they're actually adding 144 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 1: to growth a bit. And you know, it's interesting when 145 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: JP Morgan did their earnings, they said they didn't see 146 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: signs of and in fact, they were seeing consumers spending 147 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: more than they were at at this time last year. 148 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: So I think what I think the hope is is 149 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: that we have such a strong labor market instead of 150 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: being a sign uh, instead of looking at that as 151 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: just a sign of is that their potential overheating, uh, 152 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 1: you can look at it also as a sign of 153 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: resilience that people are working, they're pulling in a paycheck, 154 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: they still have some savings, and that that actually, uh 155 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: can put us in a better position to make that 156 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 1: transition to more stable growth with lower prices. Uh. You know, 157 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: in a way that does back all the games we've 158 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: we've seen in the labor market. If one of the 159 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: big complaints are one of the big knocks on the 160 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 1: administration with regard to the economy genus is messaging, why 161 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: not take victory to the point that you were just 162 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: making for recovering all the jobs lost in COVID, you 163 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: should how about put a big neon sign up over 164 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: the White House. I mean, why get bogged down in 165 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 1: an argument over what's a recession? Look, this is challenging, 166 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: but I think the truth is is that you have 167 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: to recognize that that even with record job creation, even 168 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: with low unemployment, even with lots of better jobs and 169 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: getting ages. You know what, when people go through the 170 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: grocery line or the or the gas pump and they 171 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: feel higher prices, you know, that hits them hard, and 172 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: even if they've gotten a raised, they feel like they're 173 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: giving some of it back. And I think it's important 174 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: for us to offer a bank to recognize that degree 175 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: of paying people are feeling at the grocery store or 176 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,559 Speaker 1: the gas pump. But then at the same also to say, wow, 177 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 1: look at this actually recovered all the private sex jobs 178 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: already that were lost during the pandemic. Unemployment for all Americans, 179 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 1: but for Black Americans are back to where they were 180 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: after just a little over a year. It took six 181 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: years for us to do this. Maybe you could buy 182 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 1: a plane with one of those banners, fly it over 183 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 1: Capitol Hill that well, you know, I think though, if 184 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 1: you just do that in people nice feel that you're 185 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: not recognizing I understand they're feeling. So really, you know, 186 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: I know people know the Republicans are trying to say 187 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 1: that we're spending this or that way. But I really 188 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: think I hope somebody listening to me now realizes we're 189 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: trying to recognize the squeeze people are feeling, but also 190 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 1: giving them an accurate, more balanced view of the of 191 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: the point of resilience and strengthen the economy as well. Gene, 192 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us on a busy day. Jean Spurling, 193 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 1: Senior Adviser to the President with us on g d 194 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: P Day and Big Deal Day. We'll assemble our panel next. 195 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: Rick and Jennie are coming in. This is Bloomberg. This 196 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg, So No with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio 197 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: three to one, eight seven. Yeah, that means twenty four 198 00:11:53,720 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: Republicans defied Kevin McCarthy to vote for the Chip Act 199 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: or whatever we call it, Chip Act. The Chips and 200 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: Science Sacked. That's it. The Chips and Science Act passes 201 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 1: on this vote. The Yas are two hundred and forty three. 202 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: The names are one hundred and eight seven one member 203 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 1: voting present. The motion is adopted, Madam Speaker. There it is. 204 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: It's gone on the way to the President, who's of 205 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 1: course got the pen ready. But there was a last 206 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: minute effort to sink this puppy. After Republicans heard about 207 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 1: this Schumer Mansion deal on the Reconciliation Deal, Kevin McCarthy 208 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: started whipping against it last night. I'm a no on 209 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: the Senate Chips bill that will come to the floor today. 210 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 1: I was a no last week. I was a no 211 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: last night, and I'll be the first no on the 212 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: board later today the first let's assemble the panel. Gosh 213 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: got a lot to talk about with Rick Davis and 214 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: Jeannie Sheanzano Blueberg Politics contributors. Uh, Rick, I'm not sure 215 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: where to begin here. GDP not good to consecutive quarters 216 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: of contraction, but a big news deal for Democrats. Here 217 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: is this a wash today for Joe Biden? I can't 218 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: figure out where we are. I think it's a good 219 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: day for Joe Biden. He didn't get hammered the way 220 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: most presidents would have with this GDP number. They did 221 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: an amazing job of putting everybody out that could speak 222 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: in front of a camera worked for the last two 223 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: days to say, oh no, don't believe what you're reading 224 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: and uh and I think part of that worked, but 225 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: the key thing was overlaid on top of that was 226 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: the big mansion news yesterday and the passage of the 227 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: chip sacked today. This is a great day for Joe 228 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: Biden when it comes to his legislative agenda, and so 229 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: you know, take some edge off of that by having 230 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 1: bad economic news. Um. I mean, you just heard Gene spirling. 231 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: You'd have thought we were in a great boom cycle 232 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 1: in our economy. So the talking heads are doing their job, 233 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: and I think they're keeping us a float. But look 234 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: that that bill is gonna come. Most of the people 235 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: who are being talked about is saying it's not a 236 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: recession are also saying we will likely be in a recession. 237 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: And so this may feel good today, but the closer 238 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: we get to the fall, Um, the last thing this 239 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: administration wants to do is find those same people are saying, 240 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: now we are in a recession, right, and that could happen. Gennie, 241 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: you might remember kind of an unexpected remark from Joe Biden, 242 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: we could go back and find it. This is for 243 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: maybe a month or so ago. He said, No, we're 244 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: not going into recession, though a lot of people think 245 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: we will next year. This is still a big risk. 246 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: Jenny Ellen talked about it today. There's a war in 247 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: Ukraine that's not going away yet. There are supply chain 248 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: problems that despite the Chips Act, not going away yet. 249 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: We've got a pandemic that still is shutting down areas 250 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: in China. How careful should the White House be if 251 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: we're about to step into a real recession. Yeah, I 252 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: think they have to be careful with this semantic game. 253 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: You know, they did win, and I agree with Rick 254 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: the day, and they won because the headlines people adopted this, 255 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: this idea that despite you know, since the nineteen forties 256 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: defining recession colloquially one way, technically it's another, and people 257 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: are now saying things like we're moving towards the recession. Well, 258 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: this has you know, is dangerous for the president because 259 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: he did the same thing with inflation. Right, it's transitory, 260 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: it's not here and then all of a sudden it's here. 261 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: So you know, this I think can be a dangerous 262 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:32,479 Speaker 1: game for them. Because politically they're right. Economically, but politically, 263 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: if people are feeling pain, they really don't care how 264 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: you define a recession. And they do think that the 265 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: president seems out of touch, and that's why his poll 266 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: numbers are down. That aside, what a great day for 267 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: the administration in terms of chips and moving towards reconciliation. 268 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: So who said that two out of three ain't bad? 269 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: That's pretty good Rogers number. I think that's but you're right. 270 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's okay, Rick, I don't I don't know 271 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: how you square this uh in administration that's trying to 272 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: put a good shine on on on what Senator John 273 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: Kennedy referred to as an economy that sucks. Is it 274 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: a messaging problem or is there more involved here? No, 275 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: I think it was more involved here. I think that um, 276 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,479 Speaker 1: part of it is demographics, right, we were actually transitioning 277 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: out of a group of people, you know, and certainly 278 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: I'm in that category who you know, have been a 279 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: major driver of the economy for the last you know, 280 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: thirty years and we're aging out and and I think, 281 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: you know, part of what the senator was talking about was, 282 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, people over sixty five people over fifty five, 283 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: they're just not going back to work. Um and uh 284 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: and and that wouldn't be you know, uh, that big 285 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: a deal if it wasn't such a large portion of 286 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: the population. It needs to be a much louder conversation 287 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: about that because that, I mean that that's big stuff. 288 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: That those are big, long term trends that that we 289 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: haven't gotten our arms around. Uh. You know. Janet Yellen 290 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 1: was asked in her news conference Genie about the inflationary 291 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:08,160 Speaker 1: impact of this reconciliation bill. She was asked, I believe 292 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: by the Wall Street Journal if she could quantify it, 293 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: and she could not. Does this White House also need 294 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: to be a little bit careful on the impact this 295 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: could have. I mean, they're they're talking about having an 296 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: impact on people's household budgets the minute he signs it. Yeah, 297 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: that's right. And this is the argument, you know, the 298 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: conservatives are out there saying we're in an you know, 299 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: it's an inflationary period. Weren't nine percent and you're putting 300 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 1: in one day four hundred billion dollars potentially into the economy, 301 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: and that is going to be inflationary. On the other hand, 302 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: a lot of smart people argue, this is deflationary. You're 303 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: bringing down the cost of you know, you're bringing down 304 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: the deficit, you're drinking down the cost of prescription drugs, 305 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: and that's all very very helpful to the economy. Well, 306 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: we haven't figured it out yet, but maybe we will 307 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: by the end of this hour. We've got Mark Oldwine 308 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: coming in next from the Committee for a Responsible Budget. 309 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: His view on this, the report today and where the 310 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: economy is going, by the way, two very different takes 311 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: you're about to hear as we try to learn more 312 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: about this on the fastest hour in politics. This is Bloomberg. 313 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: The headline on the terminal says it all. Biden encounters 314 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: g OP recession talk by touting job gains. Will that's 315 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: certainly been the case, the President talking up low unemployment 316 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: as the sign that we are not in a recession. 317 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 1: Along with his story, it's including Gene Sperling, who was 318 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 1: with us short time ago. But after this morning's g 319 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:29,199 Speaker 1: d P report showing a second consecutive quarter of contraction, 320 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader in the House, sees things 321 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: a bit differently. This news is a Graham milestone that 322 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 1: points towards more hardship, more suffering, and more pain for 323 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: the American people. Okay, so, as usual, the American people 324 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 1: are caught between these two extreme talking points, neither of 325 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: which fully reflecting where we are. That's why we wanted 326 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 1: to talk to Mark Oldwine. Uh Senior Policy Director is 327 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: the title at the Committee for a Responsible Budget Markets. 328 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: Great to have you back. I'm not sure if I 329 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: should start with the recession or the legislation, but let's 330 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: just go in order here. I mentioned the GDP report already, 331 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,639 Speaker 1: your concerns about this, the administrations bending over backwards to 332 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: convince us we are not in a recession, and most 333 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: economists say, well, we don't know yet, but how worried 334 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: are we about sliding into one? Based on what you 335 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: see under the hood here? Yeah, I don't think we're 336 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 1: in a recession when you look at the labor market, 337 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: look at strunk consumption. I think what we're in right 338 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 1: now is an inflation crisis and the risk is that 339 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: going forwards, that could turn into a recession as we 340 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 1: as we try to fight down inflation. Yeah, so that 341 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 1: becomes a story next year or late this year. Yeah, Well, 342 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: it may happen late this year, but not be a 343 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: story untill next year. I think the timing is really uncertain. 344 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: But here's the trade off. To fight inflation, the Federal 345 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,239 Speaker 1: Reserve needs to raise interest rates. And the more than 346 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve raise interest rates, the bigger the risk 347 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: that they throw us into a recession. We've talked about 348 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: the chances of you know, sticking landing here and soft 349 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,400 Speaker 1: landing to be exact park and the odds are not 350 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 1: with the Fed. They have a history that policy makers 351 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: have a history of overshooting, starting too late in overshooting. 352 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: Uh does that mean they need to start or at least, 353 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 1: you know, stop hiking or even start cutting sooner than 354 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: the Fed appears to be prepared for. I don't think so. 355 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: I think the bigger risk here is persistent inflation. If 356 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: inflation gets baked in, it becomes a lot harder to fight. 357 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 1: So they may very well overshoot. They should try their 358 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: best not to. But I don't think now is the 359 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: time to pull back. So let's talk about this deal. Mansion, 360 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: Schumer now Biden is behind it. They say it will 361 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: lower inflation. Larry Summers was apparently the party to convince 362 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion. I was fascinated by this. This back room 363 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: talk that that that this in fact would lower prices, 364 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: that this would not be inflationary, and that's what got 365 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,199 Speaker 1: him back on board in talks with Chuck Schumer. What 366 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: is the Committee for a Responsible Budget? See Frankly, I 367 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,199 Speaker 1: don't think Center Mansion needs convincing UM that on what 368 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: will and won't lower inflation. He's talk to me that 369 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: while now, Um, this this bill is going to reduce 370 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 1: the prices that households of businesses pay, and it's probably 371 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: gonna reduce the macroeconomic inflation, but takes some money out 372 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,679 Speaker 1: of the economy. It's not going to solve inflation on 373 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: its own, but it's going to be rowing in the 374 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: same direction the said, making their inflation fighting job easier. Okay, 375 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,199 Speaker 1: so you see, uh, you see the White House Uh 376 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: telling the right story here in terms of deficit reduction 377 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 1: as well. Is it possible to quantify that when it 378 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 1: comes to inflation or are we going to have to 379 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: give this some time? I think we're going this some 380 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: time because of the nature of how this phases in. UM. 381 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 1: I think that the most obvious inflationary impacts are going 382 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: to be very hard to measure in the near term, 383 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: and it's gonna be more the intangible stuff that matters quicker. 384 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: How much is lower prices and lower expectations helping with 385 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: this wage price spiral. That what this is really going 386 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: to do is provide some insurance against inflation remaining too 387 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 1: high for for several years, and it may just allow 388 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: the Fed to raise rates a little bit less, which 389 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 1: reduces our inflation excuse me, our recession risk as well. Okay, 390 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: that sounds pretty good to me. Mark that there's been 391 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: more argument over the Chip Act in whether in fact 392 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: that would help to lower inflation. Realizing that, you know, 393 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans agree that it's needed, and there's a 394 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: national security aspect to it. This is a supply chain aspect. 395 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 1: Can you actually connect the dots directly to inflation? Though? Yeah, 396 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 1: I'm I'm skeptical. Frankly, there's certainly reasons to do more investment, 397 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: but more more spending of that magnitude is going to 398 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: increase demand faster than it's going to increase supply. So 399 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 1: while it may be good for our long term growth, 400 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 1: I'm skeptical the Chips Act is going to help much 401 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: with inflation even in the long term. Uh, And I 402 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: realized It's impossible to predict, but we're talking about a 403 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: pretty big change in that industry. In the long term, 404 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: it may result in stronger economic growth. I still have 405 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: faith in the Federal Reserve. Over a long period of time, 406 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: we are gonna get inflation under control recrdless. So it 407 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: may on that be a good bill, but I'm very 408 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,400 Speaker 1: skeptical it's going to help us with our current inflation challenges. 409 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 1: We heard earlier from Senator John Kennedy was playing a 410 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: remark that he made on Fox talking about the White 411 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: House really misunderstanding the economy, which he described I believe 412 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: as one that sucks. Uh. I realized that's not a 413 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: scientific term here, Mark, But how would you describe it? Yeah, 414 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: it's not great. Look, there's some parts of the economy 415 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: they are actually quite strong. We have a good labor 416 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: market right now with good consumption. But inflation is killing us. 417 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 1: It's it's eating away all of our wage games, all 418 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 1: of our economic growth. And so I described this as 419 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 1: an economy in inflation crisis, and that's that should be 420 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 1: the number one priority in terms of what we need 421 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 1: to get under control. Mark old One is Senior Policy Director, 422 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: Committee for a Responsible Budget. Great to have you back, Mark, 423 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 1: and thank you for the insights. As I mentioned, Janet 424 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: Yell in the Treasury Secretary. She held a news conference 425 00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: today and was asked about the inflationary impact here, just 426 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 1: like we discussed with Mark, what would this actually do 427 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: in terms of data? Secretary, I don't have numerical estimates 428 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 1: for you, but UM I see that as making a 429 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: very important contribution to lowering the cost of prescription drugs, 430 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 1: which is um for many households of very severe burden 431 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: on their household budgets. This is something that UM policy 432 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: makers and members of Congress have sought to accomplish for many, 433 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: many years, and it's a great achievement if it can 434 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 1: become law, and will certainly help if it can become law. 435 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: We've still got some things to figure out here. How 436 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: easy or difficult will this be for Chuck Schumer to 437 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: get across the finish line. We'll turn it back to 438 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: the panel next. Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano with us 439 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: for the hour. Their insights, I'm Joe Matthew and Washington 440 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: did you joined us on the fastest hour in politics? 441 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: Will check traffic and markets for you on the way 442 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,919 Speaker 1: as well, and if you're just showing up. Subscribe to 443 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: the podcast if you haven't already, Why haven't you already? 444 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg, This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe 445 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The bill is being scrubbed right now, 446 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: as they say, by the Senate Parliamentary And what did 447 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: I see? Seven hundred pages. It's gonna be some good 448 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 1: Sunday reading for a lot of lawmakers who say they 449 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: need to see the text first. Of course, I wonder 450 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: how many will pour through seven hundred plus pages as 451 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 1: I read on the terminal, they will be doing so, uh, 452 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: as they set up a vote for next week. That's 453 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: at least the hope for Chuck Schumer, who says that 454 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: he's been in touch with the progressive wing of the 455 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: Democratic Party. If you were with A yesterday, you know 456 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: there are concerns about this build back better. This is not, 457 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: but it does appear that progressives are on board. Here's 458 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer. Well, I talked to this progression the CPC today. UH. 459 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 1: Congresswoman Jiapaul was very loudatory of the agreement, as was 460 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: just about everybody on the phone. Everyone real. Speaker Pelosi 461 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: said it best. She said, when you look at this agreement, 462 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: you don't look at what's not in it. All of 463 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: us would have wanted more in it. If you look 464 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,360 Speaker 1: at what's in it, and what's in it is dramatic, significant, 465 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: and we'll move America forward a great deal. Sam of 466 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,719 Speaker 1: the panel to talk about the way forward here with 467 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: Rick Davis and Jeannie Chanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. Uh, do 468 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: you take him at his word there? First of all, Genie, 469 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 1: when it comes to progressive Democrats, do they have any 470 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: choice but to vote yes for this? They have a choice. 471 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: I think they should vote yes for it. I obviously 472 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: they're not, you know, completely happy with what's in there, 473 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: but to his point, or what's not in there? But 474 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: to his point, there's a lot in there that they 475 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: can like. But you know, there is a danger always 476 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 1: they dig into the details. You know. I've heard people 477 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: talk about things like drilling on federal lands that can 478 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 1: be something that raises red flags. So there's always things 479 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,919 Speaker 1: a pipeline, there's always things that can frustrate progressives and 480 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 1: frustrate other people. That said, Democrats would be wise to 481 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 1: move this forward as quickly as possible. This would be 482 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 1: foolish for a Democrat to vote against I'm assuming, Rick, 483 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: what's your view, whether it's progressives concerned about what is 484 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: not in the bill or moderates concerned about what's not 485 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: in the bill, I e. Salt. Do they have to 486 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: just drop those worries and go vote? Oh yeah, that's 487 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: the only choice they have. There's not gonna be any 488 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 1: amendments to this bill. They couldn't get anything done on that. 489 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: And and look, I mean, progressive wanted that child tax 490 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,120 Speaker 1: credit is a fundamental aspect of what they were after, 491 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 1: you know, in the original bill back better plan, as 492 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 1: you point out, you know, uh, you know, big states 493 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: like California, New Jersey, New York wanted that salt. Uh, 494 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 1: people are going to come out with a half a loaf. 495 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: But the half off they got is a lot more 496 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,400 Speaker 1: than they were about to get. I mean, the timing 497 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: of this is really what's key, which is, this is 498 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: the only shot you've got left this year. There won't 499 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: be another reconciliation bill. You're gonna be lucky to have this. 500 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 1: If you can get this done, Uh, you'll have a 501 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: talking point in the fall, you know, for the elections, 502 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 1: and and and so you yes, or no. And look 503 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 1: they unlike today's vote with the chip back in the House, 504 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 1: you've got twenty four Republicans, You're not gonna get any 505 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 1: Republicans on this one. So the Democrats have their backup 506 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,160 Speaker 1: against the wall. They can only bleed four votes and 507 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: and everyone's gonna have to hold hands and say, regardless 508 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: of whether we got what we wanted, we're gonna say 509 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 1: yes to this. Keeping in mind this includes the biggest 510 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: tax hiking ears. It keeps much of the Trump tax 511 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: cuts in place. But listen to the president with regard 512 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: to how it will be paid for. Now, I know 513 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: you've never heard me say this before, will come as 514 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 1: a shock to you, but fifty for the Fortune five 515 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: companies paid no federal income tax. And you only heard 516 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: me say that about ten thousand times. But the fact 517 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: is they paid no taxes on an income collective income 518 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: over forty billion dollars. Well, guess what this bill ends there. 519 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: It's they're gonna have to pay a minimum of fift tax. Okay. 520 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 1: Kirsten Cinema as an allergy to tacks hikes, Rick, does 521 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: that keep her hesitant to vote yes for this or 522 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 1: are you confident that she's on board. I'm not confident 523 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 1: she's on board. If this had been a revision of 524 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 1: the Trump tax cuts from his administration, I could tell 525 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 1: you with some confidence that she would have been opposed 526 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: to the changes. There the fact that this is strictly 527 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: limited to a corporate tax uh and really a tax 528 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: on Wall Street. UM. You know, maybe there's a window 529 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: to get her support, But as you point out, she 530 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 1: has been vehement about not wanting to slow the economy 531 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 1: because of you know, the UM, the pursuit of revenue 532 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: through taxation and UM. And I've not heard her put 533 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,720 Speaker 1: out a statement yet on this bill. We got a 534 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: statement from Representative Sarah Jacobs of California that was the 535 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: present vote voted president on the Chips Act, and we've 536 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: been in touch with her. Bloomberg Radio reached out and 537 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 1: they just returned a statement saying that the package a 538 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: big win for the country, especially the San Diego region. UH. 539 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: After consulting with the House Ethics Committee, get this Congresswoman 540 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: Jacob's voted president in order to maintain transparency, ethical standards, 541 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 1: and to prevent a personal conflict of interest regarding the 542 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: contents of that bill. I guess that's a good thing. Genie. 543 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 1: But but what does that mean? You know, it means 544 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 1: that she's decided that for personal reasons, it would be 545 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 1: a conflict for her vote either way, for against it. 546 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 1: She would have probably been for it if it wasn't 547 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: for this person kind of the industry, Do we know, Matt, 548 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: I'm just talking to producer match Earl us in touch 549 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: with their office. We'll find out for you and let 550 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 1: you know. That's the kind of thing that voters probably appreciate. 551 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,480 Speaker 1: To be honest with you, as we spend time with 552 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 1: our panel, Rick and Genie with us on Bloomberg Sound On, 553 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: I want to talk about something that no one is 554 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: talking about today, and that's a different piece of legislation, 555 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 1: the Pact Act. I think this is on your radar, Rick, 556 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: it probably is yours as well, Gennie. For those of 557 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 1: you who haven't heard about it. This is the vote 558 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: that would provide healthcare coverage for millions of veterans who 559 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: were exposed to toxic burn pits uh in in Vietnam 560 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 1: era veterans exposed to agent orange. It It is being 561 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,480 Speaker 1: held up in the Senate now in a move that 562 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 1: some people think is retribution for this deal coming together. 563 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: They had to whip against something, so they chose this. 564 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 1: Senator Pat Toomey says, it's it includes budgetary gimmicks. Democrats 565 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 1: are outraged. And even John Stewart came to town today. 566 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 1: He took part in a news conference with the Speaker 567 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 1: of the House outside the US Capital, and he was 568 00:31:55,480 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: lit up over this. America's here rows fought nor wars outside, 569 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: sweating their asses off with oxygen, battling all kinds of ailments. Well, 570 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 1: these mothers sit in the air conditioning, walled off from 571 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 1: any of it. They don't have to hear it, they 572 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: don't have to see it. They don't have to understand 573 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 1: that these are human beings. Do you get it yet? 574 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 1: Do we see that these are these aren't heroes? Pretty 575 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: tough talk here, Rick. We saw the impact that John 576 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: Stewart had on the the effort to help firefighters who 577 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 1: got cancer from the toxins from the towers falling on 578 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 1: nine eleven. Do you think he can make a difference here, 579 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: Well he has. I mean he's been going at this 580 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 1: for quite some time. Even just to get a vote 581 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 1: in the Senate was pretty big accomplishment for Jon Stewart. 582 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 1: And and you know, look, he's rightly upset, and my 583 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 1: my framing the obstruction correctly on this. You know, look, 584 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: I don't know how much of this is a retribution 585 00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: to uh, you know, to sort of getting hoodwinked on 586 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 1: the on the reconciliation bill. Um. I'm a little surprised 587 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,239 Speaker 1: Pat Toomey has taken the position he's taken because he 588 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: has been supportive of veterans issues in the past. And uh, 589 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: and and he's not running for reelection. And I mean 590 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: this was kind of a an easy yes. Um. So 591 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 1: the bill felt five votes short. Uh, it didn't get 592 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 1: the sixty votes it needed to get to the next 593 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,080 Speaker 1: stage of the legislative process. And U and I have 594 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: absolutely no doubt that John Stewart will be back up 595 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 1: in the fall trying to get another bill up to 596 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 1: see if he can get it past. Does this see 597 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: the lead to day again? Jeannie, Well, the goal John 598 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: Stuart said today was to not let the Senate recess 599 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 1: until this is done. And so you know, he's, yeah, 600 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 1: that's unlikely, but that's that's what he publicly stated. And 601 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 1: you know it just um, I think an enormous miss 602 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 1: on the part of the Republicans. They voted for this 603 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 1: ill on June six to fourteen, to come back today 604 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 1: on a procedural issue and to vote against it. You know, 605 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,359 Speaker 1: it's really unconscionable when you think about it. These are 606 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 1: people dying horrifically of cancer and other diseases who desperately 607 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 1: need this bill passed. And so you know, I think 608 00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: they should stay in the idea, they'd go home for 609 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,000 Speaker 1: recess and leave this hanging. And let's not forget it 610 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,400 Speaker 1: past the House by you know, overwhelmingly three eighty or something, 611 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,520 Speaker 1: uh by partisan So you know, and it's it's a 612 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: procedural issue, and that's where it's unconscionable. Well, you know, 613 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 1: it's interesting the President talked about this is the state 614 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,719 Speaker 1: of the Union, Rick Um, why not make some noise 615 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:41,399 Speaker 1: about this while Republicans are hammering him on inflation. Why 616 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: don't why don't you make this a cause for the administration? 617 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,840 Speaker 1: You know, look, I think that um, you know, the 618 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 1: administration probably has in the past spoken out on on 619 00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,719 Speaker 1: this issue. I think that um, you know, they're having, 620 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,359 Speaker 1: as we talked earlier in the show, a really good day, 621 00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 1: you know, to take your eye off of the sort 622 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,319 Speaker 1: of seminal um a legislative work that's being done here, 623 00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,839 Speaker 1: you know, around the Reconciliation Package and the Chip Act. 624 00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 1: To talk to talk about something that actually didn't work. Um, 625 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 1: you know, I mean I'd be sitting in a White 626 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 1: House going wow, you know, like we'll get around to 627 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 1: that in a minute. You know, let's not let's not digress. 628 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,439 Speaker 1: You know, he needs a president needs a victory lap 629 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 1: like nobody does. And the fact that it comes on 630 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 1: a day when John Stewart got punched in the face 631 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 1: by the Republicans in the Senate, you know, is you know, 632 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean that the president doesn't sort of feel 633 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,799 Speaker 1: the pain with John Stewart. But um, you know, live 634 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 1: to fight another day. Why doesn't John Stewart run for 635 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: governor New York? Genie? Would you get on that campaign? Hey, 636 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 1: I'd work for I'd work for him, and I think, 637 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 1: you know, but I think he likes to be out there. 638 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 1: I think he likes to be pushing clauses he cares about, 639 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,279 Speaker 1: you know, and being governor that's awfully hard. That's an 640 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,200 Speaker 1: actual job. You gotta actually do some work there. Rick 641 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: and Genie, thank you so much. Our signature panel for 642 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 1: a reason, the best in the business boy, did we 643 00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 1: get a lot done today and it's not over yet. 644 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 1: I'll meet you back here tomorrow. On the fastest hour 645 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 1: in politics, we call it Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew 646 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 1: in Washington. Will take care of you on the way home. 647 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,280 Speaker 1: Traffic markets, stay right here. Daybreak Asia on the way 648 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,760 Speaker 1: as you would expect, with more breaking news on Bloomberg Radio. 649 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:16,839 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg