1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,480
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:25,600
Speaker 2: I just bought that Action Boss.

3
00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast for a special gambling

4
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 3: preview event. Today, I'm joined by Action Networks Matt Mitchell

5
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,000
Speaker 3: and Nick Giffin to discuss the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest.

6
00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,960
Speaker 3: But before I let our esteemed hot dog experts tear

7
00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,760
Speaker 3: into this glorious gambling event, let's go buy the numbers.

8
00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 3: Nathan's founded in nineteen sixteen on Coney Islands. The start

9
00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:49,280
Speaker 3: of this event, while disputed, the first official competition at least,

10
00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,680
Speaker 3: was held in nineteen sixty seven, won by a four

11
00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:56,080
Speaker 3: hundred pound trucker named Walter Paul. He ate seventeen hot

12
00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:57,760
Speaker 3: dogs in an hour, and I'm sure the crowd at

13
00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,680
Speaker 3: that point felt as though that was an insurmount record. Well,

14
00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 3: little they know at that point that the record would

15
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 3: be reset in twenty twenty one, after multiple times from

16
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,880
Speaker 3: Joey Jaw's Chestnut. He ate seventy six hot dogs in

17
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,160
Speaker 3: ten minutes. We'll get into the math and the physics

18
00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 3: of how that's actually possible. Now. On the female side

19
00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,759
Speaker 3: of things, Micky Pudo has the Female Mustard Belt, which

20
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,320
Speaker 3: is a phenomenal title for any traveling trophy. She's won

21
00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,560
Speaker 3: nine of the last ten in the female rank. She

22
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,600
Speaker 3: also owns the overall record for hot dogs by a

23
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,000
Speaker 3: lady in a ten minute period with forty eight and

24
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,800
Speaker 3: a half. And finally, the live record audience on ESPN

25
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,479
Speaker 3: was set in twenty eleven one point nine to five

26
00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,399
Speaker 3: million viewers. Needless to say, people love the fourth of July.

27
00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,039
Speaker 3: People love watching people cram hot dogs into their mouth,

28
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,720
Speaker 3: and they also love betting on it. So luckily for

29
00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,800
Speaker 3: our audience members, we have two experts in this field,

30
00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,040
Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell and Nick Giffin. I'm going to give Matt

31
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 3: his flowers real quick here. He is a graduate of

32
00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,160
Speaker 3: hot Dog High, Yes a real place. He served as

33
00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,000
Speaker 3: the Oscar Meyer Wiener reveal driver. He's also an exotic

34
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,320
Speaker 3: gambling specialist orchestrated elaborate rock paper scissor tournaments. It's events

35
00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 3: all over the greater Milwaukee area, as well as creating

36
00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:09,760
Speaker 3: an all female arm wrestling competition with Fortune five hundred

37
00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 3: clients in Las Vegas. He also knows his way around

38
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,920
Speaker 3: the dining room table, having once down to eleven KFC

39
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,239
Speaker 3: snackers in fifteen minutes and not to be outdone, Nick

40
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,240
Speaker 3: our in house doctor holds a PhD in mathematics, has

41
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 3: qualified for the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contests on multiple occasions,

42
00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,800
Speaker 3: and serves as Action Networks sports betting prop specialist, fresh

43
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,760
Speaker 3: off a scorching hot run during March Madness. So I'm

44
00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 3: very lucky to welcome them both in. Matt. Let's get

45
00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,200
Speaker 3: started with you. What does this event mean to you,

46
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,320
Speaker 3: both patriotically and as a gambler.

47
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for the kind intro, Michael, I

48
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,360
Speaker 1: love this event. I am, as you mentioned, a former

49
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,880
Speaker 1: driver of the wien And mobile marketing vehicle, so to speak,

50
00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 1: for a superior hot dog brand Oscar Meyer. I think

51
00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 1: the cultural impact of the hot dog and the brave

52
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,400
Speaker 1: men and women who eat it for fame and fortune

53
00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:03,640
Speaker 1: cannot be overstated. I am passionate about three things, podcasts, gambling,

54
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,079
Speaker 1: and the Fourth of July, so this event is basically

55
00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,000
Speaker 1: the zenith of my entire year.

56
00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:10,359
Speaker 3: You don't hear my voice.

57
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,640
Speaker 1: Very often in our network of podcasts. No one needs

58
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,000
Speaker 1: to hear from me, but this is one event I

59
00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 1: couldn't let slip by the wayside this year, so I

60
00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,680
Speaker 1: am delighted that we're covering it with the Halft We

61
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,279
Speaker 1: cover any betting.

62
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,560
Speaker 3: Spectacle Before we kick into doction, Nick, two quick questions

63
00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,080
Speaker 3: for you. How excited are you for what's really the

64
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,600
Speaker 3: most open field since Joey Chestnut strapped on that first

65
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,360
Speaker 3: mustard belt, because he has been dominating this sport in

66
00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,120
Speaker 3: a way we've only seen really in horse racing. You know,

67
00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,400
Speaker 3: a master horse like Secretariat coming to mind, So how

68
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 3: excited are you for an open field? And number two,

69
00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:45,440
Speaker 3: how do you take your hot dog?

70
00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,560
Speaker 1: Just mustard? For me, and as a former windowmobile driver,

71
00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,280
Speaker 1: I've certainly eaten more hot dogs than most normal human

72
00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,240
Speaker 1: beings will even lay their eyes upon in their entire lives,

73
00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,280
Speaker 1: so I'm certainly no stranger to the two meet arts.

74
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 1: But what does it mean?

75
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,080
Speaker 2: Like we've seen.

76
00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 1: Joey Jaws chussn American hero dominate this competition, to go

77
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 1: back to when he wasn't dominating this, you have to

78
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 1: go back to New York Knick's head coach, Isaiah Thomas,

79
00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,279
Speaker 1: like ancient ancient history. It's been ages since someone's gotten

80
00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,039
Speaker 1: within ten of him.

81
00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,120
Speaker 3: So it's very exciting, Doctor Nick. Two questions for you

82
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,240
Speaker 3: to get you started. First, if you're trying to impress

83
00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,080
Speaker 3: anybody at a cocktail party with your greatest food stunt?

84
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,560
Speaker 3: What would that be? And I'm very interested to know

85
00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,520
Speaker 3: what does it take to qualify for this event?

86
00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, well I'll start with that second question. First, I

87
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 4: have not qualified for the event. I have attempted to qualify.

88
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,960
Speaker 4: Oh oh yeah, interesting. I came up a little short

89
00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:48,600
Speaker 4: in my qualification attempt. But my personal best is eighteen

90
00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,680
Speaker 4: and a half hot dogs. To put that into context,

91
00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:55,159
Speaker 4: we had somebody qualify for this year's event with twenty two,

92
00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,760
Speaker 4: so very close to having the potential to qualify back

93
00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:04,640
Speaker 4: in in the late two thousand's, early twenty tens decades

94
00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 4: there so certainly passed my prime now at age forty,

95
00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,800
Speaker 4: and if I were to impress people with a food

96
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:18,080
Speaker 4: eating feet, I love eggs, so hard boiled eggs I

97
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,440
Speaker 4: can down like nobody's business.

98
00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,680
Speaker 3: I also love soft boiled eggs.

99
00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,880
Speaker 4: I am half Ukrainian and as a Ukrainian staple, so

100
00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 4: eggs in any way I will be able to eat

101
00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,320
Speaker 4: out eat anybody I think in the egg department.

102
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,680
Speaker 3: All right, now for our main event, people are tuning

103
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:36,160
Speaker 3: in to find out what you guys are going to

104
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,200
Speaker 3: be betting. There's all kinds of different ways to attack this.

105
00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,520
Speaker 3: You have outright winners, you have over unders for individual

106
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,360
Speaker 3: eaters as well as you know, bundles of particular competitors.

107
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,520
Speaker 3: So let's get into who has a chance to strap

108
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,000
Speaker 3: on the mustard belt this year. We're going to start

109
00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,360
Speaker 3: at the top of the card basically even money out

110
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,400
Speaker 3: on the market. I am going to stress this is

111
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 3: one of those exotic markets where it really pays the

112
00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,840
Speaker 3: shop bround. You can see significant differences between so make

113
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,000
Speaker 3: sure after you identify who you'd like to lay your

114
00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 3: money down on, get the best number. Jeffrey Esper at

115
00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,320
Speaker 3: even money, a forty nine year old Massachusetts high school teacher.

116
00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,640
Speaker 3: He finished second last year with forty nine hot dogs.

117
00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,119
Speaker 3: It makes sense that he's the favorite headed into this event.

118
00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,240
Speaker 3: His food stunt claimed to fame as that he ate

119
00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,760
Speaker 3: twenty one pounds of strawberry shortcake in eight minutes. Whoof

120
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,440
Speaker 3: all right, So best of luck to Jeffrey. Right behind

121
00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,719
Speaker 3: him in the odds market, James Webb at plus one

122
00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,720
Speaker 3: point forty, the Australian legend is just thirty five years old,

123
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,680
Speaker 3: already holds one world red record for eating donuts, having

124
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,719
Speaker 3: eaten seventy glaysed donuts in eight minutes just last month,

125
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,640
Speaker 3: so he can certainly up it in terms of quantity

126
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,040
Speaker 3: when he needs to. Then he got Nick Weary at

127
00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,640
Speaker 3: three to one. He's actually married to Miki Sudo who

128
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,400
Speaker 3: I mentioned at the top, the female all time record holder.

129
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,720
Speaker 3: She is the final boss of hot dogs on the

130
00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,800
Speaker 3: lady side. He is a former competitive bodybuilder. He's up

131
00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,680
Speaker 3: to number four and the Competitive Eater world rankings, so

132
00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 3: he's not somebody to sleep on in this event. Patrick

133
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,720
Speaker 3: Berdaletti anywhere between seven to ten to one. As I said,

134
00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 3: go ahead and shop around for the best number. The

135
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,080
Speaker 3: thirty nine year old from Chicago once eight thirty nine dozen,

136
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,400
Speaker 3: not thirty five and thirty nine individually, thirty nine dozen

137
00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,560
Speaker 3: oysters in eight minutes in New Orleans and twenty eleven

138
00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,240
Speaker 3: all right. Rounding out the favorites. Burtley Weaver at nine

139
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 3: to one, a former Tennessee Titan mascot. At least in

140
00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 3: the crowd kind of you know, the New York Jets

141
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 3: had their firemen in the stands. Hyperion was Burtley Weaver.

142
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,520
Speaker 3: He put you know, the full thor costume on. He

143
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,760
Speaker 3: was shredded. These two hundred and seventy five pounds. A

144
00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,440
Speaker 3: former competitive bodybuilder, he's intimidating. You know who's not intimidating

145
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,880
Speaker 3: right behind him, Darren Breeden at twenty two to one.

146
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 3: He's only one hundred and sixty five pounds. But here's

147
00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,280
Speaker 3: the thing. Hailing from Norfolk, Virginia, he already holds one

148
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,120
Speaker 3: world record in twenty eighteen in the cheese curd eating discipline.

149
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,680
Speaker 3: He ate five pounds and two ounces of Wisconsin cheese

150
00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,720
Speaker 3: curds in just six minutes. So that rounds out the

151
00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,680
Speaker 3: top of the card at least in terms of the

152
00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:54,960
Speaker 3: sportsbooks view on this. So I'm going to get it

153
00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 3: to the experts here. I'll start with you, doctor Nick.

154
00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,120
Speaker 3: How are you attacking this? And more importantly, how how

155
00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,560
Speaker 3: do you go about the strategy and you know, getting

156
00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,600
Speaker 3: some data, watching film, looking at other events to potentially

157
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,320
Speaker 3: have a correlation between do donuts make any difference when

158
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,000
Speaker 3: it comes to hot dogs? How do you go about

159
00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,120
Speaker 3: attacking a card like this?

160
00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 4: Obviously you need to look at each competitor's history, what

161
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 4: is their personal best? What is their personal best specifically

162
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,400
Speaker 4: in this discipline of hot dogs and buns, because that

163
00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,880
Speaker 4: is what we're focusing on here. You can look at

164
00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 4: other world records, but let's be honest, setting a world

165
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,680
Speaker 4: record in some other category, maybe it's oysters or maybe

166
00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:36,160
Speaker 4: it's hard boiled eggs doesn't necessarily correlate to eating hot dogs,

167
00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:40,839
Speaker 4: simply because not as many people are performing these side competitions,

168
00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,800
Speaker 4: these side foods, if you will, So it becomes a

169
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,440
Speaker 4: little bit hairy in terms of being able to use

170
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:52,440
Speaker 4: alternate foods. So looking at personal best, looking at qualifiers,

171
00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,360
Speaker 4: and for me, looking at the conditions. What is the weather,

172
00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,880
Speaker 4: what is you know, the humidity? All sorts of things

173
00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:05,839
Speaker 4: can affect each competitor. Obviously, Joey Chestnut in years past

174
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 4: has had injuries that he has dealt with and that

175
00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,439
Speaker 4: has reduced his total. Are there going to be protesters

176
00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,080
Speaker 4: that anybody needs to put in a headlock and throw

177
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,000
Speaker 4: off the stage. All these things can affect the outcome.

178
00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,440
Speaker 4: But as far as individual competitors, I really do look

179
00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 4: at their hot dog history the most.

180
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,160
Speaker 1: From a data perspective, it's an interesting competition because for

181
00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,760
Speaker 1: most individuals, we have a pretty significant data set of

182
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:33,760
Speaker 1: how people have performed under these nearly identical conditions with

183
00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,920
Speaker 1: an identical food year after year. At the same time,

184
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,480
Speaker 1: of year, we're able to get a pretty firm idea

185
00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 1: of at least a range that we can expect from

186
00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:46,560
Speaker 1: any individual competitor. But I'm sure, as my much more

187
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:51,720
Speaker 1: esteemed colleague will point out those conditions specifically, the meteorological

188
00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,920
Speaker 1: conditions are of the utmost importance.

189
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,720
Speaker 3: All right, With that table now being set in terms

190
00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,160
Speaker 3: of your methodology, let's get into some of your picks,

191
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,560
Speaker 3: doctor Nick, what do you first?

192
00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 4: Speaking of those meteorological conditions, the current forecast for tomorrow

193
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,920
Speaker 4: at noon eastern on Cony Island is about sixty five

194
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:14,800
Speaker 4: percent humidity, and traditionally higher humidity has correlated with lower

195
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:19,440
Speaker 4: eating totals. So if we have humidity above sixty percent

196
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,800
Speaker 4: on average, both in the men's side and in the

197
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,440
Speaker 4: women's side, we have seen five fewer hot dogs and

198
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 4: buns than pete amounts that would be for Joey Chestnut,

199
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,679
Speaker 4: Mickey Pseudo, even some of the second and third place

200
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,240
Speaker 4: contenders in those categories. So I'm looking at backing and

201
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,079
Speaker 4: under here, and if you shop around you can find

202
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,880
Speaker 4: the two leading men's competitors, Jeffrey Esper and James Webb.

203
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:49,240
Speaker 4: They're combined hot dogs eaten under ninety nine and a half.

204
00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 4: You can get that at minus one forty, so we

205
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,800
Speaker 4: are paying some juice, but I think it's worth it.

206
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,840
Speaker 4: If you look at each's personal best, which would be

207
00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,000
Speaker 4: fifty one for Esper and forty seven for Web, which

208
00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,760
Speaker 4: you sat in this competition last year, that sums up

209
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 4: to ninety eight, which is one and a half hot

210
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,120
Speaker 4: dogs and buns under the ninety nine and a half total.

211
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,320
Speaker 4: And then you add in the high humidity which could

212
00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,960
Speaker 4: reduce totals a little bit further. And I really like

213
00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,199
Speaker 4: backing the under here. Now, yes, there is always the

214
00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,840
Speaker 4: theory of well, these two guys are the leading contenders,

215
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,360
Speaker 4: now there's no Joey chestnut are they going to push

216
00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:27,120
Speaker 4: each other to be better and better? But Esper is

217
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,679
Speaker 4: probably near his peak. I mean he is in his

218
00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,760
Speaker 4: age forty nine year and that is always something Joey

219
00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,080
Speaker 4: chest nutt mentioned Last year he was pushing forty years

220
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,280
Speaker 4: old and he wasn't as good as he used to be.

221
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,440
Speaker 4: I think Esper potentially has reached his peak of fifty one,

222
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,920
Speaker 4: and last year, you know, he only had forty nine.

223
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,440
Speaker 4: And while Webb may be able to push beyond that,

224
00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,880
Speaker 4: I think just with the weather conditions as well the

225
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:53,960
Speaker 4: high humidity. I think this is a spot where we're

226
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,679
Speaker 4: going to back the under on ninety nine and a

227
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 4: half total hot dogs eaten between the two favorites.

228
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 3: Not a full pull back the curtain on your hot

229
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,080
Speaker 3: dog data apparatus, But do you put together a range

230
00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,480
Speaker 3: and how often does someone you know just hook their

231
00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,839
Speaker 3: ball into the woods and eat, you know, seventeen hot

232
00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,080
Speaker 3: dogs and throw up the white flag as opposed to

233
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,079
Speaker 3: the consistency, maybe more so of a marathon runner of

234
00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 3: somebody they know within two or three minutes what they're

235
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,160
Speaker 3: going to finish in a multi hour events. In this case,

236
00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,199
Speaker 3: with it being so compact, do you feel pretty comfortable

237
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,240
Speaker 3: in terms of your projections that they're going to fall

238
00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,440
Speaker 3: on a small window? Yeah, I think so.

239
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:29,959
Speaker 4: With Joey Chess that it was a lot wider simply

240
00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,360
Speaker 4: because he was pushing the human limit as far as

241
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,160
Speaker 4: we know, and to have an uncomfortable day or or

242
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,559
Speaker 4: less ideal conditions for him was a lot more detrimental

243
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,840
Speaker 4: to him than it would be to these guys. And

244
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,679
Speaker 4: we don't tend to see these guys, you know, really flop,

245
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 4: really bounce, because this is something they do for a living.

246
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,200
Speaker 4: These are competitive eaters for a living, most of these guys,

247
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,240
Speaker 4: and so they do tend to have a pretty solid consistency.

248
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,160
Speaker 4: If we look, for example, at Pata Deep Dish Bertilletti,

249
00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,400
Speaker 4: he tends to always fall in that forty to lower

250
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 4: fifty range almost a year after year once he kind

251
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:11,000
Speaker 4: of became an established name in the industry. So you know,

252
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 4: there are always this room for improvement with these guys,

253
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,280
Speaker 4: especially as they become more and more of a competitive here.

254
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,400
Speaker 4: But once they've been established for a few years, they

255
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,719
Speaker 4: kind of hit that range. So I think we can

256
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,439
Speaker 4: expect both from Web and Asper to be in that

257
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 4: forty two to fifty two range. Certainly, we could see

258
00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 4: them go outside of either of those limits, it is

259
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,560
Speaker 4: definitely possible, but I think that's probably the range that

260
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,920
Speaker 4: both of these guys will end up falling in. And

261
00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 4: so you know, when you're looking at a forty two

262
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,280
Speaker 4: to fifty two range for each of them, under ninety

263
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 4: nine and a half hits a lot of that range.

264
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by

265
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 5: bet MGM used the bonus code Action when signing up

266
00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,840
Speaker 5: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus

267
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 5: bets if your first bet does not win.

268
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona.

269
00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 5: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey,

270
00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:02,520
Speaker 5: North Carolina, Ohio, pennsylv Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming,

271
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,959
Speaker 5: terms and conditions apply. It must be twenty one plus

272
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 5: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

273
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,079
Speaker 3: Matt, I know that you've been relishing the opportunity to

274
00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,680
Speaker 3: come on here talk hot dogs. It's time for you

275
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 3: to lay down some picks. What do you got?

276
00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna strap in your meat belts as we

277
00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,480
Speaker 1: used to say, and get ready for the action. So

278
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 1: I obviously co sign anything. Nick Kiffin says, a smart

279
00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,440
Speaker 1: listener will know to listen to anything he advises you

280
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:33,360
Speaker 1: to do. Put myself firmly in the amateur category. I

281
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 1: like Jeffrey esp a lot. He's got the furious Massachusetts

282
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 1: dad look arms like a steam fitter. He's not a

283
00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,800
Speaker 1: guy I'm interested in fading, even as a potentially overpriced favorite.

284
00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,040
Speaker 1: But he's finished runner up three times. I think he

285
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 1: is a considerable foe and won't be I don't think

286
00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,800
Speaker 1: the lights will get brighter for him. But again, this

287
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,720
Speaker 1: is going to be the first truly competitive matchup in

288
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 1: a very very long time time. This is the first

289
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 1: time that a number of individuals can potentially, you know,

290
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 1: ID eight, that they could be going home with ten

291
00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,040
Speaker 1: thousand dollars versus you know, sixteen of the past seventeen years.

292
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,400
Speaker 1: In that regard, I harken back to the proverb that

293
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:18,480
Speaker 1: iron sharpens iron, and we would say the same about appetites.

294
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,160
Speaker 1: Basically that the top two or three competitors here would

295
00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 1: be pushing one another to new heights. But I take

296
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 1: all of Nick's advice here to heart, and so that's

297
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 1: why I look at James Webb so's He's Australian, He's

298
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 1: fourteen years younger than Esper. He is the undisputed hot

299
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 1: dog champion of the Southern Hemisphere, and between twenty two

300
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 1: and twenty three, you know, twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three,

301
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: he saw his his hotdog intake go up by six

302
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 1: and a half dogs to forty seven and a half.

303
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 1: That's a considerable jump. This is only his third time

304
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,400
Speaker 1: doing this specific contest, and this Nick outlined every one

305
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 1: of these foods is a whole different sport. There's a

306
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 1: whole different set of strategies and a pro The fact

307
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 1: that he has increased so dramatically one year to the

308
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 1: next leads me to believe his ceiling is much higher.

309
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 1: So potentially he could have been reaching into the fifties.

310
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 1: And thus, even if it's humid conditions less ideal circumstances,

311
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,200
Speaker 1: his ceiling remains higher than some of his competitors, which

312
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 1: is why I took his over. It climbed from forty

313
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 1: six to north of forty eight at some shops, so

314
00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 1: I would encourage everyone to shop around. But I think

315
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 1: his likeliest finish is exactly forty nine, exactly fifty hitting

316
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 1: that over. I like that a lot. I think he's

317
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 1: as as a person that you still in his mid thirties.

318
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 1: I think the conditions will impact him to a smaller degree.

319
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 1: I again, all of that's completely speculative, and I don't

320
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,600
Speaker 1: disagree about the combined top two finitures market and all.

321
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 1: I think that's a really sharp way to play the conditions,

322
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,480
Speaker 1: the unknowables about Web and his higher ceiling. And ultimately,

323
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,480
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, I'm giving you ten

324
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,280
Speaker 1: minutes of my independence day and a handful of my dollars.

325
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 1: I want to bet on overs. I want to bet

326
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,520
Speaker 1: on a guy losing steam at the end. That's not

327
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 1: what our founding fathers would have wanted. That's not what

328
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 1: this great nature was built upon. So I'm going to

329
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 1: find some way to bet an over in this contest.

330
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 3: All right, let's close it on this way. If you

331
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 3: had any exotics, outright winners, anything on the cutting room floor,

332
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 3: now's the time to share it with our audience. And also,

333
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 3: how are you going to take in? Are you going

334
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 3: to be, you know, ducking in from a barbecue or

335
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 3: are you going to be at a bar? Are you

336
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 3: going to be eating a hot dog right there alongside

337
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 3: the competitors? How are you going to do it tomorrow?

338
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 3: Doctor Nick?

339
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, well it'll be nine am my time for me.

340
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 4: I'll probably fire up a hot dog. I have some

341
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 4: Nathan's hot Dogs on order, a morning hot dog. Absolutely.

342
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,120
Speaker 4: But I do have one more bet and I am

343
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,920
Speaker 4: going to go with Patrick Deep Dish Bertoletti at thirteen

344
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,639
Speaker 4: to one to win this contest. Now, the reason I

345
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 4: really like him is well he has the highest PB

346
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 4: personal best of all of these eaters. He has eaten

347
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,440
Speaker 4: fifty five hot dogs and buns. Yes, that was back

348
00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 4: in two thousand and nine, the year I attempted to qualify,

349
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 4: So it has been a long time. But just last

350
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,879
Speaker 4: month he ate forty eight and a quarter hot dogs

351
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 4: and buns, besting the third favorite, Nick Wherry by a

352
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 4: quarter of a hot dog forty eight in that Cleveland qualifier.

353
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 4: And Patrick Deep Dish Burletti is motivated, he's fired back up.

354
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 4: He took nearly a decade break between Nathan's hot dog

355
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 4: contests from twenty twelve to twenty twenty two, and he

356
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 4: seems ready to go. So I think the fact that

357
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 4: he has had now a couple of years to build

358
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,959
Speaker 4: himself back up and get into that intense shape. There

359
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 4: is plenty of upside here if the conditions keep things down.

360
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 4: It's kind of like we see in college basketball, maybe

361
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,439
Speaker 4: with lower paced teams, lower totals, same thing with NFL

362
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 4: road dogs in low total games tend to cover the

363
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 4: spread more when things are lower. That is, the underdog

364
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 4: more of a chance to win. And if the conditions

365
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 4: are such that maybe one or two of these guys

366
00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,199
Speaker 4: his favorites end up struggling, Patrick Deep Dish Bertoletti as

367
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 4: the most experience of all of these guys with dealing

368
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 4: with conditions similar to this and has the highest upside

369
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 4: in terms of a past personal best. So I'm going

370
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 4: to take a thirteen to one flyer on Patrick deep Dishpertoletti.

371
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,920
Speaker 3: I love the picture of the painted there, this narrative

372
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: of almost like a boxer losing his way, wandering the

373
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 3: streets of Chicago, maybe has a hot dog and thinks

374
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 3: to himself, I got one more run in me. So

375
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 3: I like that, particularly that price. As we've stressed time

376
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 3: and time again, you don't want to get him at

377
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 3: six to one, where he is some places in this market.

378
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 3: Thirteen to one. You certainly have my full attention, Matt.

379
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 3: Any final picks and what is your schedule? It'll be

380
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 3: what ten am? Is that correct? Or eleven am in

381
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 3: Wisconsin for the tip off of this hot dog eating competition.

382
00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,719
Speaker 1: Yes, I believe the men's competition will begin at eleven

383
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 1: point thirty local time here in Milwaukee, the paris of

384
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:54,439
Speaker 1: the Midwest. My only final parts here would be an

385
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 1: important reminder for those uninitiated there can be quarter and

386
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:02,919
Speaker 1: half dog finishes. They happen all the time. So the hook,

387
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: if you will, is less important because you can finish,

388
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 1: for example, directly on a forty seven and a half

389
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: as a finish, So just be advised there. And the

390
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 1: last is I'll remind it, and this is coming to

391
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 1: play in prior years. If a contestant suffers what they

392
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 1: call a reversal of fortune, in other words, a vomit

393
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 1: at any time, they are disqualified, including at the very

394
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: end of the competition. So it is important that they

395
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 1: eat the dogs and keep them down like any good

396
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: Fourth of July barbecue. Atten Dee, I will be celebrating

397
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 1: America's two hundred and forty eighth birthday in my home

398
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 1: over the protests of my closest friends and family and children,

399
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: and putting this competition on the largest TV I own,

400
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 1: and getting myself into a patriotic lather and enjoying every

401
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 1: second of this s I can't wait, and I hope

402
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 1: everyone out there on behalf of everyone here at our

403
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 1: content operation. Let me extend a very happy Fourth of July,

404
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: Happy birthday, America. Enjoy the day off everybody. I wish

405
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 1: everyone the very best of luck gambling on this competition.

406
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 3: This has been the Action Network podcast I'm Mike Calbrey's.

407
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 3: This has been Matt Mitchell and doctor Nick walking you

408
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 3: through everything hot dog related. If you enjoy this kind

409
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 3: of content, please comment, share. All those things go a

410
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 3: long way in terms of what we can kick up

411
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 3: to our bosses to say. We showed you that people

412
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 3: want more hot dog gambling and exotics, so we're happy

413
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 3: to deliver it to you. Happy fourth of July, Happy

414
00:21:28,680 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 3: Independence Day. Godless America Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

415
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

416
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

417
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 3: hundred gambler