WEBVTT - Surveillance Special: Generation Interrupted 0:00:01.440 --> 0:00:05.600 This is a Bloomberg Radio special. Generation Interrupted. I'm Lisa 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:08.319 of brom Woods. Over the next hour, we look at 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:12.520 the pandemics outsized impact on America's youngest workers, the people 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:16.800 graduated free college into this pandemic. They're really getting hammered. 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.200 We saw a decline of new jobs posted. The overall 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.120 jobs rate it's been up about five for people between 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:27.240 sixty and it's been up almost double that. Plus the 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.600 pitfalls and setbacks tied to learning and starting a new 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:34.080 job in a virtual world, entering the workforce, entering an organization, 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:36.879 getting to know people, and doing that virtually. It creates 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:40.919 challenges for younger people. It's the kids trying to struggle 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.239 through zoom school. We're not paying enough attention to the 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:48.160 harm that is happening among those kids, and also how 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.239 young workers can respond and pivot to adapt to the 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:55.960 pandemic technology. Those skills are very much in demand. Healthcare obviously, 0:00:56.360 --> 0:01:01.680 human services, financial services actors because they support the stay 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:05.959 at home economy. From navigating the stay at home economy 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:09.520 to overcoming setbacks from virtual learning and weathering a job 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:13.160 market forever changed by the pandemic. It all lies ahead 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:20.680 for a generation interrupted. The coronavirus pandemic and ensuing recession 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.800 has had an outsized impact on Generation Z. Young people 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:28.880 have had their education disrupted, their career plans upended, their 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:32.840 financial prospects diminished. Any recession is going to hate young 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:37.240 workers hard, but this one comes with unique challenges. Betsy 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.200 Stephenson is former chief economist for the U S Department 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.920 of Labor and current economics professor at the University of Michigan. 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:48.080 Whenever we have a recession, the kids who are graduating 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:51.320 from high school or college right around that time do 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:56.360 face really significant labor market pains that can last a decade. 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.720 Usually there's a traditional path for graduates fresh out of college, 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:03.200 one that sets them on a path to the financial 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:05.840 stability needed to start a family in the years that 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:10.640 follow well, no demographic group has been untouched by this recession. 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:13.960 The long term effects might be hitting college grads harder 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:17.679 than most. The people graduating from college into this pandemic. 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:21.959 They're really getting hammered, and that's because they would normally think, 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.160 I just spent all this money on a college degree, 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:26.760 and I should go into, you know, an entry level 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.680 job that's gonna let me climb up the career ladder 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.520 and I should be earning a pretty good wage by 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.200 the time I'm thirty, and that's exactly the path that 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.520 gets disrupted. You can see it in the types of 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:40.640 jobs that are getting cut across the country, jobs the 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:44.040 young workers either go to after graduation or rely on 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.920 to help them pay for college. I spoke with Richmond 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:50.280 Fed President Tom Barkin about the impact he's seeing in 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:54.520 the labor market. This virus has gone directly at the 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:59.519 personal contact jobs, their restaurants, their retailers, their amusement parks, 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:03.480 and a jobs are disproportionately held by hourly people, by 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.920 part time people, and importantly by young folks. Can you 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:08.840 give us a sense of how bad the jobless rate 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:12.400 has gotten among young folks? The overall jobless rate has 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.600 been up about five For people between sixty and twenty four, 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.600 it's been up almost double that. The long term fallout 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:22.280 from that jobless rate can have massive implications for Generation Z. 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:25.880 Research from the Richmond Fed bears it out, pointing to 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.920 a long term impact for workers in their early twenties. 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.720 Our research team says that most of life outcomes in 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.560 terms of wealth, you know, the biggest driver is where 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.120 you sit at age three, and so if we can't 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:42.240 get folks into the workforce, into school, paying for school 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.320 with their jobs in the workforce, by his tin, I 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:46.480 think there's a real threat to what's going to happen 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:50.640 at these folks throughout their career. When the pandemic hit, 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:54.280 the US unemployment rate shot up more than ten percentage 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.320 points In a single month, nearly fifteen percent of the 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.080 workforce was unemployed. But when you break it down a 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.360 workers age sixteen to nineteen, the jobless rate sword to 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:07.080 more than thirty percent. For twenty to twenty four year olds, 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:10.840 it hit twenty five percent. Those are both all time 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.720 highs for those age groups, and at the same time, 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:19.080 new job postings across the country virtually disappeared. Cheryl Brooks 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:22.800 runs career in professional development at the University of Massachusetts. 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:26.760 In the spring, we saw a decline of new jobs posted. 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:33.400 About the biggest week was decrease, and that was the 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:37.920 week of April. This spring, the labor force participation rate 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.960 for people aged sixteen to twenty four dipped under fifty 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:44.080 percent for the first time since the government started tracking 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:47.920 the data eighty years ago. Jobs are disappearing that may 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.600 never come back. Professor Stevenson says that's especially true of 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:56.719 certain sectors. You know, leisure and hospitality employments down, so 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:59.360 they're not entry level jobs for them right there. So 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:03.279 trying to build that those skills and really coming into 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:08.240 entry level, minimum wage leisure and hospitality jobs. Um, you 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.719 know that it's been a blood bath and it probably 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:12.960 will be for a while. For those who have been 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:16.440 lucky enough to land jobs, they've had to lower expectations. 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.200 That means lower pay and worse prospects for long term 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:23.120 career growth. Even those who do have jobs are often 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:26.359 having to take jobs that are lower in terms of 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:29.359 their entry point than they would otherwise take. They're not 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:33.599 getting the promotions that you usually get. And for young people, 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:37.479 the way you climb up and build your career is 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:40.320 you get a lot of movement in your twenties. You know, 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:45.160 you change jobs, you get promotions, and that's also missing, 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:47.680 and the data around that movement right now is very 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:51.520 telling and discouraging. Tourist In Slock is one of Wall 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:55.159 Street's best known strategists, leading the economics team at Deutsche 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:58.400 Bank for more than a decade before becoming Chief Economist 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:03.200 and Apollo Global Management. He sees some troubling trends developing. Normally, 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.480 people who are switching jobs. You see that wage growth 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.000 in the data from the FIT shows that wage growth 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:11.760 normally goes up for people who are switching jobs. But 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:14.360 this time around where you seeing wage growth go down, 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:16.600 which probably is telling us that people are willing to 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.200 take jobs at lower pay just to get into the 0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:22.200 labor market again. So that's also, from a very broad perspective, 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.560 not helping new gradgrets. That's not helping people who just 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.320 finish their education very broadly, because there's not a lot 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:29.680 of competition from people who've been in the labor market 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.120 for five, ten, twenty years who are not willing to 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.560 take jobs at a lower paying What matters now is 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.159 how long the effects will last and how does it 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:41.680 threaten to leave permanent scars on this generation. I pose 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:44.680 the question to Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:48.279 Bank of Richmond. You know, folks that graduate college, for example, 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.599 in a recession often started a different place than folks 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:55.080 who graduate college in an upturn. That's just an obvious difference. 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:57.080 Instead of the longer of the recession last I think 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.280 the more risk we do have of this kind of 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:03.320 scarring what's the difficulty in younger workers getting jobs at 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:05.880 a time when you do see recovery in the economy, 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.920 but you have an unemployment rate generally that's so high, 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.200 So you have more experienced, older workers applying for the 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:15.720 same entry level jobs perhaps that previously might have gotten 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.360 taken up by younger workers. I think that is a risk, 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:21.440 But I'd also say the risk is that, you know, normally, 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.920 if you worked at a restaurant and your restaurant closed, 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:26.720 you'd probably get a job at another restaurant, or maybe 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.840 you go get a job at the gap. Today, you know, 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.800 the retailers are closed, and the restaurants are closing, and 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.240 a lot of other local small businesses are closing. So 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.800 I just think the natural next jobs, you know, aren't 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.160 as available as that would have otherwise been. And so 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.080 I think that's a little bit more of the challenge, 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:46.040 And that's why I'm focused on topics like how do 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:49.360 we bridge this mismatch between the people who really do 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:53.160 need employees and the employees who really need jobs. So far, 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:55.880 that mismatch has yet to be bridged, and the addition 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:59.360 of older, more qualified workers makes the situation more challenging 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:02.760 for young job seekers. It also makes them prime candidates 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:05.360 to be hit by layoffs. According to former Labor Department 0:08:05.440 --> 0:08:10.560 Chief economist Betsy Stevenson, I am quite worried about, you know, 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.440 sort of that mid twenties person who's finally sort of 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:16.920 made some progress. It's not that they're in an industry 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:20.960 necessarily that got particularly hammered, but that they may be 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.040 seen as one of the most expendable people on a 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:29.200 team that needs to cut costs rapidly, and that it 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:31.040 is going to hurt young people and it's gonna be 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:35.079 that's exactly what takes them a long time to recover from. Well, 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.800 when you talk about previous recessions and how the youngest 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.439 cohort usually is the hardest hit, how long do they 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.720 have until the scarring for their not being and not 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.360 entering back into the workforce becomes more permanent or more pernicious. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.480 In other words, this idea that it sets back their wages, 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.280 it sets back their household formation and then spending, and 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:56.880 it trickles out to slower growth for a longer period 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:00.680 of time. So what really matters is how long the 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:03.959 recession last. Um, you know, as they said, the young 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.199 people do tend there's a lot more churn among young 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:11.480 people high unemployment rates, but then they get hired into jobs. 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.800 But this it's the stagnation that they get even once 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.679 they're employed, not getting raises, not getting promotions, not getting 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.000 to climb the career ladder. And so if you have 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:26.960 a long, prolonged recession with a long recovery, then it 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.600 can take a very long time for them to get 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.440 back to where they otherwise would have been. You know, 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:36.439 you're sort of asking how long before we get permanent scarring? Look, 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:40.280 I think there's already some damage to young people that's 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:44.600 going to take them a decade to reverse. So I 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:48.320 think of that already as some permanent scarring. You know, 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.840 Can I get worse? Absolutely, And the longer it goes on, 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:57.760 the worst it will get. For the youngest workers, having 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:01.120 a college degree is proving to be little action from cutbacks. 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.240 It's also offering no leg up in the search for 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.280 a job. That's according to data from the online job 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.880 site and recruitment company Indeed. Jed Colco is the firm's 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:15.160 chief economist. The increase in unemployment um on young people 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:19.680 has been almost as high for those with college degrees 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:23.160 as those without. Now, for older workers. It's very different. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:27.439 For older workers, having a college degree has provided much 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:31.920 more protection some immunity if you like UM. In this recession, 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:35.480 UM not so for younger people or even the younger 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:39.520 college grads of seeing UH being increased in their unemployment rates. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.520 And it's not just college grads, it's also students currently 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.839 attending college. Jobs they once used to help pay their 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.960 way through school are drawing up. Not only is that 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.800 making it harder to pay tuition, it's depriving them of 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:56.200 the opportunity to learn other skills. According to Tom Barkin, 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.600 there are lots of opportunities for people to get into 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:01.480 the workforce to learn this off skills about how to 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.160 show up, how to work with a group of people, 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.400 how to have a boss, how to deliver day to day. 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:11.560 These are starting places for people in our economy. In addition, 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:13.160 there are a lot of people who are in school 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.839 who use these jobs to help pay for school. And 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.360 so whether it's you're getting started or you're just trying 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:21.319 to fund your future, these first jobs really do matter. 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:25.000 Do you see a destruction of them or a transformation 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:28.560 of them right now away from service sectors into a 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.440 different kind of job that fits more with the cyber 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.439 world that we're apparently living in. I still have hopes 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.280 that we're going to be beyond this virus eventually, whether 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.400 it be a treatment for a vaccine, But it's not 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.400 hard to imagine a scenario where a lot of these 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:47.360 jobs do go away, where people decide to automate personal contact, 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.520 or many of the small businesses and restaurants that have 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.520 been threatened or closed. And in that case, we've got 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:56.480 a whole population that's going to need a new set 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.199 of entry level jobs. And I don't think this is 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:03.080 as easy as putting everyone into technology or putting everyone 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:06.280 into construction. I think there's been some self selection of 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.440 the people in these jobs, and so we're gonna have 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.080 to be thinking about what are the careers that are 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:15.360 going to be the substitutes for the entry level retail 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:21.400 job or travel job, hospitality job. As entry level positions 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:25.040 become scarce, more students are staying in school looking to 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:28.040 get their m b A. Or j D. Graduate school 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.800 applications are surging as students put off entering the workforce. 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:36.400 Stanford's Graduate School of Business just had the largest incoming 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:40.400 class in its history. At the same time, though, entrepreneurship 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:43.559 from the school's graduates is taking a hit. I spoke 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:46.640 with Stanford business tean Jonathan Levin. We normally have about 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:51.240 of our class that launches new ventures. We had some 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.000 had some amazing companies come out of the Stanford Business School, 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.960 including in recent years, and including with just this last class. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.760 Think maybe a little more anxiety about starting off on 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.679 your own at a time when there's so much uncertainty 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:08.800 in the world, And that's something again we'll know we'll 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:10.640 be looking at very closely this year. We do everything 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.920 we can to support students who who both want to 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.560 go into existing organizations but also want to start something 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.360 and and take a little of a risk as they 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:23.080 as they leave business school and well, business school applications surge, 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:27.439 it's a different story for undergraduates. They're staying home. Enrollment 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:31.600 at Harvard University is down nearly twenty from a year ago. 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:36.000 There are also other disruptions that are harder to quantify 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.040 twenty or thirty years from now. What's the one factor 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.280 we should have paid more attention to at this very moment. 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.960 I posed that question to former Labor Department Chief economist 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:50.920 Betsy Stevenson. So for me, that's not the kids trying 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.080 to enter the labor market right now. It's the kids 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.080 trying to struggle through zoom school. You know, I think 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.480 that we're not paying enough attention to the harm that 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.280 is happening among those kids. It's not just their education 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.800 that's being disrupted. Their hard skills. Are they going to 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:07.520 be able to do as much math? Are they gonna 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.040 be able to read as well? Are they gonna, you know, 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:14.800 have the science knowledge and the technology knowledge to thrive 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.280 in the workplace. They also need the sort of social 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.840 emotional skills that get developed in you know, your standard 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:24.520 K through twelve classroom, but even your college classroom. A 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.960 lot of growing up in college is about those connections 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.920 you make with your classmates late at night, debating issues, 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.480 trying to figure out how you're gonna see the world. 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:38.240 All these things are interrupted for young people, and I 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:42.120 don't think that we're paying enough attention to what it's 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.560 gonna take to make it up to those young people 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.920 so that when they hit their twenties in their thirties, 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.560 they're as good to go as previous generations were at 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:55.880 maximizing their potential. The economic fallout from the pandemic is 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.840 already hitting low income family's hardest, and now the shift 0:14:59.880 --> 0:15:03.000 of virtual learning is doing the same, with high speed internet, 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.840 laptops and other technology out of reach for the less fortunate. 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.520 Cell Con is founder of the free online education platform 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.760 con Academy. Of the population that really doesn't have sufficient 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.160 internet access, school districts have been doing a heroic job 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.120 getting laptops out, The local telecom carriers have been doing 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.480 a great job getting them that Internet access. But even then, 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.720 we're seeing five ten percent of the population isn't engaged 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.640 for whatever reason. They might be young kids, maybe their 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.800 parents are essential workers. They don't have enough devices at home, 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.320 not sufficient bandwidth, we don't know. And so that five 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.560 or ten percent, you can imagine they were always the kids. 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.479 They are already the kids who are probably just proportionately 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:47.000 not engaging in school. And now if they're not even 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:50.440 being reached for six months one year, not only will 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:52.600 they not learn over that time period, they're going to 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.760 atrophy and they might just lose the structures of school, 0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:58.440 and the worst thing is it's going to be really 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:02.080 bad for their mental health. Distance learning right now, ironically, 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:06.520 is most kids lifeline to community and socialization and friendships. 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.280 The prospect of virtual college has many students to laying education, 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:14.400 but that hasn't been the case at Howard University. Admissions 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.840 at the historically black university are up despite the drawbacks 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:22.080 of virtual learning. Howard President Dr. Wayne AI. Frederick says 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:25.320 the college is doing its best to adapt, but concedes 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.960 there's no substitute for in person learning. We have a 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.560 significant number of low income students, and the primary thing 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.800 they get from coming here is the installing of confidence, 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.920 and that happens from their interaction with one another, from 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:44.280 the interaction with their faculty members, from the socialization that 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.640 takes space outside of the classroom. Eighty percent of what 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.440 they learn, in my opinion, takes space outside of the classroom, 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.920 and so that has been compromised, there's no doubt about that. 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.560 And we've been trying to fill that space with virtual 0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:01.200 connections around that, so not just didactic instruction, but programming 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.359 that would still give them that opportunity to express themselves 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.040 and to grow and to learn, uh, you know, how 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.760 to interact with one another. A number of students have 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:12.560 just decided to delay their start of college instead of 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:14.960 doing it all online. Do you think that that's the 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:18.080 right tack to take. You know, that's interesting because he 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.480 had Howard, we actually had plans of being in a 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:25.600 class of about two thousand students. We ended up with 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:29.879 an incoming class off so what we saw was very different. 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:35.040 Our enrollment is of UH sixtent, primarily because our retention. 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.120 It also went up as well. So what we've seen 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.600 is Howard students at least have made a decision that 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:46.320 they want to pursue higher education in this downtime, um, 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:49.440 even if it's in this environment, so that they keep 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.520 moving along and they don't you know, kind of drop 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:54.159 out for a year and have to catch back up. 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:56.760 Until it's been very different, and I think some of 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.400 it again may have to do with having so many 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:03.160 students coming from circumstances where they don't necessarily have their 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:06.919 finances and also probably looking at what else am I 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.320 going to do in the pandemic. It's not like if 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.520 you take a year, oh if you can go, you know, 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:13.879 travel to you up or do something else like that 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:15.919 right now, and I think so quite a few of 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.600 us and has decided to stay with us. The virtual 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:22.320 environment isn't just impacting the college experience. It's also a 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:26.119 challenge for new employees. A virtual workplace offers none of 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:30.000 the networking opportunities or water cooler talk that new workers 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:33.040 used to form relationships with fellow employees or to get 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:37.200 face time with their bosses. Stanford Business Dean Jonathan Levin 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.280 is seeing this challenge show up with a lot of 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:45.600 graduates because we've shifted to online work. Keeping things going 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:50.040 is easier than starting new things and onboarding people, bringing 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.760 them into an organization, getting them up to speed, and 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.240 so I think that's that's something that all organizations are 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.720 working on. And any student who's now entering jobs has 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.200 to go through the process of entering the workforce, entering organization, 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.879 getting to know people, and doing that that virtually and 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.040 you know, all in a relatively short amount of time. 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:10.800 Studies show generations that come of age during a downturn 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.520 have lower long term earnings power. It has the potential 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.679 to impact them and the economy for decades, and the 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.520 courage shift to a stay at home economy is complicating 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:24.119 the matter. There are some sectors hiring right now, but 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:27.600 not the ones young workers traditionally pursue. Jet Colco is 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.119 chief economist for Indeed, the sectors where hiring has been 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:38.199 very strong are goods related sectors, construction, driving, retail, warehouse jobs. 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.720 And these are sectors that are doing well because they 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:45.160 support the stay at home economy, um, But they tend 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:47.480 to hire fewer college grads, and they don't tend to 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:50.439 be the sectors that young college grads look at first, 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.720 and the sectors that are hiring right now for the 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:57.520 most part, our jobs that pay less. We've seen much 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.720 slower recovery in job postings in higher wage sectors, partly 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.080 because those higher wage sectors are on the one hand, 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:08.800 slower to laid people off, um, but also in terms 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:12.760 of uncertainty, UM, they're slower to hire. There's also concern 0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:16.280 that some traditional jobs, the ones hit hardest by the pandemic, 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:19.800 could go away for good. Richmond FED President Tom Barkin 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:23.280 has been looking at the prospect of some positions disappearing entirely. 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:25.760 So I think a lot of these jobs that have 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:28.639 been threatened, I think actually there's a way to reimagine 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:30.760 them that won't keep every one of the job, but 0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.199 actually may retain more than we've got right now. I 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.160 know that you have kids who fit within this cohort. 0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:40.160 What would your recommendation be to someone of in this 0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.720 age group who is looking to retrain themselves some capacity. 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:47.200 What skills are most in demand right now that could 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:49.359 give them the best chance to say, you have an 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:52.480 interest in affinity for technology, those skills are very much 0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:55.920 in demand, and certainly everything looks like that will continue 0:20:55.920 --> 0:21:00.440 to be in demand. I'd also say skilled trades, working 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:03.000 around the house, fixing cars, any of those, if you 0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:06.600 have that kind of affinity, that's another place that for 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:08.480 sure we have needs now and I think we will 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:10.720 in the future. And then the third place I point 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.920 to his healthcare. Certainly this pandemic has pointed that out 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:16.720 home health is a great example of a place that's 0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:19.680 likely to grow as nursing homes have challenged, so getting 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:23.000 into those fields. They're seeing similar trends at the University 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:26.560 of Massachusetts, along with a pickup and recruitment for internships. 0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:30.000 Cheryl Brooks runs career in professional development at the school. 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:33.320 We're seeing a big boost that in just the last 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.439 couple of weeks in internships and co ops what we 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:40.879 call field experience, which makes sense for when these positions 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:46.560 they're looking at um for the spring actually spring co 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:51.399 op positions or summer. Uh so you know employers do 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:54.439 realize that they need to continue to look at future 0:21:54.520 --> 0:22:00.840 hiring and to keep creating that pool of invidence for 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:05.040 the pipeline for the future. But even so, some parts 0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.040 of the workforce may need to retrain in an effort 0:22:08.080 --> 0:22:11.480 to move across industries, and that's where the government could 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:14.600 play a bigger role. According to former Labor Department Chief 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:20.080 economist Betsy Stevenson, we will have sexual real realignments. We 0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:22.640 will have some industries that don't come back, and we'll 0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:26.520 have other industries that grow. And you can't think, well, 0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:29.679 the companies that, you know, companies are going to provide 0:22:29.680 --> 0:22:31.800 this training. I think this is really about getting people 0:22:31.840 --> 0:22:34.680 to move across industries. And when we're trying to get 0:22:34.680 --> 0:22:37.640 people to switch their skills from one industry to another, 0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:41.439 that's when we need government training. That's not about you know, 0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:46.240 individual company offering some training. That's really about governments offering 0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:50.560 training programs that help people align the skills that they 0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:54.040