WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: January 31, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.120 --> 0:00:05.480 Live from the Bloomberg Interacted Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:09.760 Daybreak for Monday, January one two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.840 Traders Way the chance of a half percentage point rate 0:00:12.880 --> 0:00:15.480 hike in March. The labor market comes into focus for 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.279 this week's Key Johns report. Oil is on track for 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:22.400 its mast January in three decades, and Joe Rogan apologizes 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:26.000 after billions of dollars getting wiped from Spotify's market value. 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.520 New York City will home deliver free Covalenta viral pills blows. 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.680 North Korea confirms the test fire, a mid range ballistic missile. 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.479 Over the weekend on Like Lablar More AHLF, I'm down, 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:38.320 Statstower and sports on the the Bengals and Rams playing 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.440 Super Bowl fifty six in l a I win for 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:45.440 the Rangers, the Islanders locked. That's all straight ahead on 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:49.120 Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven three oh New York, 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:54.000 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:59.120 Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, Syrius Hexham one nineteen and 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.320 around the world Long Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:09.679 the Bloomberg Business Set. Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hager and 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:13.479 I'm Karen Moscow and US futures are mixed to start 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:15.280 the week. We're coming up to five oh one on 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.440 Wall Street, and we check the markets every fifteen minutes 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:20.280 throughout the trading day. On bloomberg S and P futures 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.280 up less than a tenth of upper cent up three 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.479 points now, dwal Future is down fifty and Nastack Future 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:27.920 is up eighties seven. The ten year treasury down two 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.200 thirty seconds. He had one point seven seven percent. They 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.960 yield on the two year one point one and nine percent. Nathan, Karen, 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.760 we begin with the Fed this morning in speculation about 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.039 whether a rate hike in March could be bigger than 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:43.360 initially expected. Let's get the latest live from Bloomberg's rned 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:45.560 A Young. Good morning, Da, Good morning Nathan. The FIT 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.760 could raise the benchmark rate by fifty basis points if 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.880 there's a need to be more aggressive when inflation. That's 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:55.360 what Atlanta FIT president Raphael Bostick told The Financial Times, 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.600 adding that all options are on the table for every 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.320 FIT meeting this year if needed, but he stuck to 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:04.640 his prediction that three quarter point increases starting in March 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.520 is the most likely scenario this year. Meantime, Goldman Sachs 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:12.560 Presents predicts the Fed will raise interest rates by twenty 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:16.480 five basis points five times this year. Live in New York, 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.960 I'm Gornita Young Bloomberg Debreak, Thanks Nita. As we spend 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:22.400 the next six weeks reading tea leaves from the Fed, 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.800 will get a concrete look at the labor market. This Friday, 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.680 the Fed and investors will be paying close attention to 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:31.320 the January Johns are Board. We get a preview from 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:34.760 Bloomberg's Vinny down judas the data could provide insight on 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.960 the highly contagious Armicron variants impact on the economy. Economists 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:42.240 are forecasting a temp at December increase one hundred seventy 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:46.080 five thousand or so after November's weeker than forecast, showing 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:50.160 jobless claims jumped last month as COVID nineteen four business 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.160 is the closed temporarily. You're throwing the towel after two 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:58.000 years of pandemic turbulence. Vinny Dolt Judais, Bloomberg Debreak. Okay, Vinny, 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.280 thanks down Asia. Overnight we got a temp in reading 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:04.359 on the world's second largest economy. China's manufacturing sector expanded 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:08.040 at a slower pace in January. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:10.880 Brian Curtis has the details. The official p m I 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.960 declined to fifty point one, that was just above the 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:17.720 estimate of fifty. The non manufacturing gauge fell to fifty 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:21.320 one point one, also just above the forecast. A number 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:25.800 of issues here a seasonal slowdown, COVID nineteen outbreaks and 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.960 a weakening housing market. Also, the government ordered steel plants 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.040 to cut output that's to reduce air pollution ahead of 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.120 the winter Olympics. In the meantime, that taishin pm I 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:38.920 dropped to forty nine point one, and that was the 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:43.160 worst in almost two years. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg day Break, Brian, 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:46.000 thank you. In Europe, central banks and economic data are 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.720 also and focus. This week we get a key rate 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:51.240 decision by the Bank of England On Thursday, we got 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.600 live to London and get the latest with Bloomberg's You 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.640 and pots You and good morning, Good morning, Karen and Nathan. 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:58.760 The UK could be heading for its first back to 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.680 bat right high in seventeen years. Economists in Bloomberg's survey 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:04.960 reckon the Bank of Englam will raise its key industrate 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.720 to no point five percent this week. Forecasters also expect 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.400 the central banks to confirm to confirm it's to stop 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:14.080 reinvesting in bonds that are matured. This comes to the 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.960 banketting and battles surging inflation now at five point four percent, 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:20.800 the highest in thirty years in London. I'm you and 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:23.240 part splom Bog day break, alright you and thanks. Politics 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.719 are also center stage in Europe. After six days of 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:30.279 voting in Italy's parliament, Sergio Matrella has been re elected president. 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:33.239 We get the details from Bloomberg's fancying Lakwa. In Rome, 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.720 after almost a week of filmed votes to elect an 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:41.119 alternative candidate was reelected. As it to these President Mario 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:43.320 drag the prime minister. It was initially seen as a 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.840 top contender for the job and he made it clear 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.200 he would be keen to become head of state, but 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.520 lawmakers and fear to return to political germ oil without 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:54.480 drug as prime minister. In the end, it was drawing 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.599 himself whilst Mattreela to remain in office, bringing the week 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:01.839 long stalemate in Rome. Francine la Well Bloomberg day Break Francine, 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.000 Thank you. Geo political tension in Eastern Europe. Also on 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:08.520 the agenda this week, the United Nations Security Council meets today. 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:12.800 Regarding concerns about Russia invading Ukraine, Bloomberg said, Baxter has 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:15.640 the story. The Pentagon says Russia continues to build up 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.560 troops on a day to day basis. US Ambassador of 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:21.520 the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield says today is actually a 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.719 chance for Russia. Are the reason we're calling for this 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:29.559 meeting on Monday. Uh is one more opportunity to find 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:33.240 the diplomatic way out for for the Russians. But she says, 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:36.320 the others are to talk further actions from sanctions to 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.920 troop build up and to see where other nations stand. 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.600 In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg day break. All right. 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.919 Thanks to attention over Ukraine, along with sustained global demander 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.279 giving a lift to oil, crude is on course for 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.039 its best January in three decades. In fact, oil has 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:55.279 been hired for six straight weeks. Checking prices now, West 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.919 Texas intermediate cruds up five tenths per cent, or forty 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.359 eight cents at eighty seven dollars twenty eight cents. Barrel 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:02.800 Brent is hired by eight tenths per cent at ninety 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:06.400 seventy four cents. Well on the corporate front, this morning, Nathan, 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:10.000 Spotify is in a spotlight. It's responding to controversy over 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:14.000 COVID misinformation from Joe Rogan's podcast We Get the Story 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:18.560 from Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo. In an Instagram video, Rogan apologized 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.920 and pledged more balanced and better research for his podcasts. 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:25.320 The comments come after Spotify outline steps it will take 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:28.839 to halt the spread of misleading information about COVID. Rogan 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.480 has hosted several outspoken skeptics of the vaccine. Last week, 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.480 singers Neil Young and Joni Mitchell pulled their music from 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:39.559 Spotify to protest Rogan. Almost four billion dollars was wiped 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:44.080 from Spotify's market value last week. Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg Daybreak, 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.720 Lisa Thanks. Spotify wasn't the only stock to take a 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:49.240 pounding last week. So did robin Hood. It dropped to 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:52.480 a record low following earnings. On Friday, Kathy Woods Our 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.280 Investment Management bought nearly two and a half million shares. 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.680 Robin Hood still trades sixty seven percent below its initial 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.760 public offering price, and Nathan, there's also a possible deal. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:05.000 This morning, Bloomberg News has learned that Elliott Investment Management 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.760 and Vista Equity are nearing an agreement to buy software 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:11.160 maker Citrix Systems. They deal with value the company's equity 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.640 at about thirteen billion dollars. Citrics make software that workers 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.280 used to log onto corporate programs in virtually And this 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:24.760 is Bloomberg. Excaren, It's five oh seven on Wall Street. 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:27.160 We're twenty one degrees in Central Park heads up for 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.640 an early accident on the bellpark Way near Erskin Street. 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.640 Blot of details and traffic shortly First, Michael Barr is 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:34.200 back to tell us what else is going on in 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.440 New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.680 morning Nathan. New York City will provide free anti viral 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:43.280 pills home delivered to people who test positive and are 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:47.960 higher risk from COVID nineteen Mayor Eric Adams at a 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.480 news conference yesterday and the Bronx as we want to 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:52.960 make sure that no one with COVID has to move 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.840 throughout the city. New York is one of the only 0:07:56.200 --> 0:08:00.880 places in the nation where we are are doing this. 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:05.040 Free delivery. Adams also shared the latest data and COVID 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:10.040 rates in the city. Hospitalizations are down, COVID deaths are down, 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.200 and that is because of the hard work of every 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.200 day in New York is that are doing the right 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:20.800 thing around vaccine nations and boost the shops. Mayor Adams 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:24.840 says the pills will be delivered in partnership with Altil Pharmacy. 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.600 North Korea has confirmed it test launched an intermediate range 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:32.600 ballistic missile capable of reaching the U. S territory of Guam, 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.840 and its most significant launch in almost five years. North 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:39.559 Korea said the test verify the accuracy of the MASNG 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:44.479 twelve missile. White House officials said North Korea's escalating provocations 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:49.600 have become increasingly concerning. Cheslee Christ, the twenty nineteen winner 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:52.640 of the Miss USA pageant and a correspondent for the 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:56.600 entertainment news program Extra, has died. New York City police 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.720 said Chris, who was thirty, jumped from a Manhattan apartment. 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:03.000 Bill It. Senate majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.760 says he is pledging to push for one point five 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.480 billion dollars of the federal budget to go to the 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:12.040 eight t f to combat the interstate gun trade. We're 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:15.360 gonna ask them to direct that money to particularly go 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:20.280 after gun trafficking, the Iron Pipeline, and a special task 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.760 force that they have set up to deal with states 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:26.000 that export guns. Senator Schumer says the gun trade is 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:30.120 responsible for of the gun violence in New York. New 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:34.480 York Republicans Nikole Meliatakas and Claudia Tenney would have to 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:38.200 find a way to appeal to opposition party voters under 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:42.200 a remapped congressional district plan to proposed map re Least 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.720 Sunday is designed to maximize the prospects for Democrats ahead 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:49.160 of the November election. Global News twenty four hours a 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.960 day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Tank, powered by 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.880 more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:57.920 a d twenty countries. Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg, Nathan. 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:04.559 Thanks Michael. Almost five ten on Wall Street Time with 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.560 the Bloomberg Sports Update. The super Bowl is set, John, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:11.440 it is Nathan Bengals Rams super Bowl fifty six in 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.040 l A. And if the game is anything like what 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:16.400 we've seen the last two weekends, we'll have a close 0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:20.320 Super Bowl. Last six playoff games, five decided by three points, 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:22.640 on the other by six in overtime, two comebacks and 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:26.800 another overtime. In the conference championship, Cincinnati came from eighteen 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:30.680 down to win in Kansas City in ot The Bengals 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.480 led by their young quarterback Joe Burrow and their rookie 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.520 kicker Evan McPherson, who kicked four field goals in all 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:39.520 three of their playoff wins. He's gone twelve for twelve. 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:41.200 The one in o t was set up by an 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:44.480 interception thrown by Patrick Mahomes, who came back to Earth 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.080 after last week's heroics. He had a strong start yesterday, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.640 but the Homes in the Chiefs denied a third straight 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.880 ANFC championship. The Rams, led by Matthew Stafford rallied from 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:57.320 ten down in the fourth quarter, second touchdown of the 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:59.360 game for Cooper Cup and then a couple of field goals. 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.200 They took the lead of the forty niners with under 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:05.520 two minutes left, and then we're able to seal the victory. 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:10.040 Dr bow pocket probably, he spins out, he's hit, he's 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:17.640 wrapped up. He put it forwards, interceptedptedtercepted, very Donald's got 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:22.360 quite through the rock blow and proving Howard plitches. The 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:26.320 NFC Championship game, l A had the call. Rams finally 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.160 beat the forty Niners where they lost him sixth raight 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:32.400 times twenty seventeen. Josh McDaniels, a long time offensive creator 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:33.959 in New England, leaving to be the head coach of 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.160 the Raiders. Giants will have a press for today for 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.080 new coach Brian dave Hole Rangers. The Garden avoided their 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:41.600 first three game wising speak scored final minute beat Seattle 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.040 three to two. The Islanders lost in Minnesota four to three. 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:47.880 John Stashware Bloomberg Sports, Nathan all Right, John, thanks. Futures 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:50.360 mixed as we get ready to close out this volatile 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.079 month of January. Right now SMP futures little change to 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:57.400 lower down futures down seventy five points. Nastack futures are higher, 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.640 up sixty two. Dennis Cartman, former publisher of the Gartment Letter, 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.679 joins us on these markets. Next to this is Bloomberg 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:09.760 Bloomberg eleven three oh. Weather mostly sunny today with a 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.640 higher thirty mid thirties tomorrow, clouds by Wednesday, but milder 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.280 with a higher forty five degrees. Right now, it's clear 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:24.200 in one in Central Park. Markets. Headlines and breaking news 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.920 twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, at 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.439 Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Take, Chris is a 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:40.080 Bloomberg Business lash and I'm Karen Moscow. European stocks are 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:42.959 rising this morning. US Dock index futures are mixed, and 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.679 a gage of global equities are pairing its biggest monthly 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:50.080 drop since March, as investors vet corporate earnings will continue 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.720 to grow amid aggressive tightening by the Fed. We checked 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.040 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.800 Bloomberg Right now, S and P futures are little change now. 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:01.319 Futures down forty eight nowsday cheers up seventy the decks 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.320 in Germany's up one point one percent ten. Your treasury 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.840 down four thirty seconds. He had one point seven eight percent. 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.360 They yield them a two year one point to zero percent. 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:11.920 Nimex scured oil is up six tents per cent, or 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.360 fifty five cents at eighty seven dollars thirty seven cents 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.760 of barrel Comex called up two tenths per cent or 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:20.200 three dollars forty cents. A seventeen ninety announced the euro 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.760 one point one one seven nine against the dollar, British 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.280 pound one point three four four six, and the yuen 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.760 is at one fifteen point four six. And the Euro 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:31.080 area economy grew modestly in the fourth quarter, admitted another 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:35.000 wave of surging coronavirus infections and curbs on activity grows. 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:38.599 Domestic product rose three tenths percent, slightly less than predicted. 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.400 And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barrow 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.559 with more on what's going on around the world. Michael, 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.720 good morning, Good morning, Karen. The U n Security Council 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.080 is scheduled to meet today for the first time on 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:52.960 Russia's troop build up and threatening actions against Ukraine at 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:56.520 the request of the United States. The US Ambassador, Linda 0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.600 Thomas Greenfield, said Russia's actions pose a leear threat to 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.480 international peace and security and the UN Charter. Russia's deputy 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.920 ambassador called the proposed meeting of PR stunt. It will 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.640 be the Bengals versus the Rams and the Super Bowl. 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.800 On February thirteenth, Cincinnati beat the Chief twenty four in 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.000 overtime to win the a f C. The Rams beat 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.560 the forty nine twenty seventeen for the NFC title. In 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:25.000 the NHL, the Rangers won, the Islanders and Bruins lost. 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.280 In tennis, Raphael and Nadall as one of men's record 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:32.280 twenty one Grand Slam singles title in the Australian Open Final. 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.280 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.920 on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:42.440 journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr, 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.800 This is Bloomberg. Nathan alright, Michael, thank you. It's five 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.320 nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.200 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. As we get set to close 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.600 out a volatile month of January, let's spring in Dennis Cartman, 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:59.000 chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee and 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.280 former publisher of the Gartment Letter, as we get set 0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.640 for a new trading week. Dennis, good morning. Very interesting 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.920 to see all the gyrations over the last month and 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.640 just this last week we had the SNP and the 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.240 NASDAC pretty much and where they started. Are you looking 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:18.000 for more volatility as we continue to price in what 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:21.600 exactly the FED is going to do. I'm afraid we're 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.000 gonna see a great good deal more of volatility. I 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.040 think we're due for a little bounce here and nothing 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.920 more than that. I like to look at the charts 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.280 from a distance, and I always talk about the markets 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.000 that after they've broken, moved back into what I called 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.160 the box, the fifty to sixty of a tracement of 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:41.160 what they had traversed and during the decline. And I 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:44.880 think that takes the now somewhere between thirty five five 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.920 thirty five thousand and thirty four thousand, seven fifty. That'll 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.000 be the box for the Dow. The S and P 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:55.000 I think can get back to about forty five five, 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:57.640 and I think the NASDAC can get back to about 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:02.800 fifteen thousand five between and fifty thousand. We'll probably do 0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.560 that this week. Remember at the first of every month 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.160 we always get an inflow of money from uh from 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:10.680 retirement funds. That will give us a little bit of 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.680 a bounce tomorrow, maybe even into Wednesday. But watch the volume. 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.360 The volume on the for the for months now has 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.760 stronger on the downside and weaker on the upside. And 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.000 I suspect that that's going to continue. So we'll probably 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.840 see a nice little rally between today tomorrow or maybe 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:28.640 even into Wednesday, but I doubt it will be on 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.000 very strong volume, and I think it will be something 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:32.960 that should be sold into. I think the bear market 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.960 began eleven weeks ago, and I think we can for 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.960 the next year or two. Well, I shouldn't say that long. 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.120 Let's just say it will continue to break until it 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:44.800 stops for the next several months. One is to sell 0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.840 into strength, not to buy weakness. And as I said 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.520 weeks now, in a bear market, he or she who 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:53.040 loses the least will do the best. Yeah, I think 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:54.960 it is safe to say that you've been pretty bearished 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.640 on this market for quite a while now. Is that 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:02.120 driven by more hawk ish FED? Is that what's driving 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.879 that view? I think that's the predominant circumstance. What had 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:08.679 driven the bull market was a very expansionary FED, and 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.919 I said, I think has made it abundantly clear that 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.600 they're going to take the fuel away, take the gasoline away, 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.720 take the carostene, take the propane away from the markets 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.520 that had driven the markets higher. And the fact that 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.439 we're taking the the fuel away from the market and 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.200 that's probably gonna be abundantly clear by the middle of 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:27.879 March when the Fed is said they're going to be 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:31.359 done with que and it probably begin the process of 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:35.280 quantitative tightening as they allow their their balance sheet to 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.520 roll off quietly. There won't be a seller or anything. 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:41.320 They'll just simply allow them uh securities that they've bought 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.800 from the Fed or bought from the Treasury to roll 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.560 off quietly over time. But that's a reduction to the 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.040 amount of fuel that that that has driven the market higher, 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:50.920 and I think that that's what's driving the bear market 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:54.120 then will continue to do so for probably at least 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:55.840 to the end of this year, and I think we're 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.440 gonna see demonstrably weaker prices over that period of time. 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:02.639 When you take the fuel away that has driven things higher, 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:04.800 that's it's going to be very difficult to keep things 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:07.520 going up. Of course, the debate is how much fuel 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:09.639 is going to be taken away, whether we're going to 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:13.120 see more aggressive rate hikes early, Just how many rate 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:16.520 hikes we're going to see this year? What's your what's 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.760 your case on how many hikes? When you could see 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.080 from the Fed two and a half months ago, when 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.520 I said, the FED will probably at least tighten three 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:27.120 times four times. That seemed to be laughable. Now everybody 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:28.920 is talking about the fact they'll be at least four, 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.240 so they'll talk to as many as six or seven. 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.120 For the course of the year. I think we'll see 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.600 at least five or six times when the Fed has 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.080 raised the overnight said funds rate, and I think several 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.080 times will take it up by fifty basis points. So 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:42.960 I think by the end of the year we'll see 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.119 the overnight said funds rate at least to one seventy 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.800 five maybe two, and before it's done, it will probably 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:50.720 even be stronger than that. So the Fed has a 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:53.720 a long job ahead of itself and had a long 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.760 job in front of it, but it was allowing the 0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.000 monetary aggregates to expand and taking the overnight said funds 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.200 right to zero if they need to get it back 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:04.560 to something that is more amenable to a longer term 0:19:04.840 --> 0:19:07.600 relationship with the economy. And so I think it's at 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.119 least five maybe six times with the raises the overnight 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.960 funds right basis points most of the times fifty basis 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.080 points probably one of the times this year. All right, 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.560 we'll continue this conversation on monetary policy, the inflation risk, 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:23.719 and geopolitical risk as well. Dennis Gartman is with us 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.560 for the hour here on Bloomberg Daybreak. He'll be joining 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.680 us for more just ahead, as we take a look 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.960 at the markets right now, mixed action as we get 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:35.239 set to close out the month of January. Right now, 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:37.840 S and P futures are little change now futures down 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.800 seventy five points, NASTAC futures moving higher. They are up 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:45.439 seventy one points. The tenure treasury is down three thirty 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:49.119 seconds the old one on the tenure note. Yield on 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:51.800 the two year right now one point one nine percent. 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.840 We'll get much more on the volatility to end this 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:58.880 first trading month of two and the new president same 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.679 as the old president in Italy. Top stories of the 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:08.520 morning coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak. Bloomberg day Break brought 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:10.879 you by The Breakers this winter, a warm welcome awaits 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:13.000 to the Breakers is committed to making your stay even 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:17.160 better with exceptional experiences, gracious service, and unparalleled seaside glamorates. 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:23.280 Learn more. Visit the Breakers dot com today, broadcasting live 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:27.359 from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio in New York, Bloomberg 0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:31.480 E Living Freedom to Washington, d C. Bloomberg on to Boston, 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:35.040 Bloomberg on A six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.280 six to the country Sirius XM Chad A one nine team, 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.440 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:51.119 Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.480 on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.320 Kared Moscow. We're just about four hours away from the 0:20:56.320 --> 0:20:58.280 open of US trading. Let's get you up to date 0:20:58.320 --> 0:20:59.880 on the news you need to know at this hour. 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:02.760 R SNP futures are little change this morning as we 0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.600 close out the volatile trading month of January. Despite Friday's rally, 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.360 the SNP five hundred is down seven percent so far 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.479 this month. The tech heavy nastack is off by twelve percent. 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.360 Oil is up sixteen percent and on track for its 0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:18.840 best January in three decades. Karen, they'll pullback in risk 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:22.040 assets comes as the Fed turns hawkish, and now they're 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.760 speculation about whether a rate hike in March could be 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.879 bigger than initially expected. Let's get the latest five from 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.720 Bloomberg's You Need a Young Na Nathan. The Fed could 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:33.920 raise the benchmark rate by fifty basis points if there's 0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:36.720 a need to be more aggressive when inflation. That's what 0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:40.520 Atlanta FIT president Raphael Bostick told The Financial Times, and 0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:43.920 he's stuck to his prediction that three quarter point increases 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:47.639 starting in March is the most likely scenario. Meantime, Goldman 0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:51.639