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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Today, the United States military continues to carry out large

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Speaker 2: scale combat operations in Iran.

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Speaker 3: The US and Israel's attacks on Iran have entered their

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Speaker 3: third day, and President Donald Trump said Monday that the

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Speaker 3: US's military operation could continue for weeks or more.

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Speaker 2: Whatever it takes. We will always and we have right

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Speaker 2: from the beginning. We projected four to five weeks, but

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Speaker 2: we have capability to go far longer than that.

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Speaker 3: The US is now sending additional forces to the region,

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Speaker 3: and Trump told the New York Posts that he hadn't

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Speaker 3: ruled out putting US troops on the ground. As of

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Speaker 3: Monday afternoon, six US service members and hundreds of Iranians

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Speaker 3: have been killed. The attacks have set off a chain

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Speaker 3: reaction across the region. The Iranian regime and its proxies

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Speaker 3: launched targeted strikes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait after

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Speaker 3: Hezbollah fired missiles towards Israel. Israel struck Lebanon. Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 3: was reported that one of their oil refineries was targeted

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Speaker 3: in one of the Iranian strikes.

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Speaker 4: We have several fronts opening up, a number of Gulf

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Speaker 4: Arab countries that also found themselves in the firing line.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Haspallat joining the fight right.

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Speaker 3: Now, and on Monday, an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard

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Speaker 3: commander announced on state television that they would not let

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Speaker 3: any oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz and would

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Speaker 3: set fire to any ship attempting to pass. Oil prices

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Speaker 3: had already spiked off the news of the weekend attack.

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Speaker 3: European gas prices surged more than fifty percent on Monday,

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Speaker 3: and Brent krude was up as much as thirteen percent

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Speaker 3: at the market open, clearing eighty two dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 3: The attack on Iran and killing of its supreme leader

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Speaker 3: Ali Hamane leaves open questions about who will rule the

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Speaker 3: country now, what the war could mean for global oil prices,

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Speaker 3: and how long the US's involvement might last.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said today, they said, oh, well, the president wants

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Speaker 2: to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored.

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Speaker 2: I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Bloomberg's Golner Motavali on

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Speaker 3: the succession plan for the Supreme Leader in Iran and

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Speaker 3: the efforts to keep oil prices in check amid the

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Speaker 3: widening conflict across the Middle East. Bloomberg's Golner Motavali has

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Speaker 3: been following the story since news of the US and

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Speaker 3: Israel's attacks on Iran broke, along with our reporters across

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Speaker 3: the globe. Golnard, You've been anticipating this conflict could erupt

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Speaker 3: for weeks now.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think generally, since Israel last attacked Iran in

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Speaker 4: June and triggered the Twelve Day War, which obviously the

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Speaker 4: US joined at the very end.

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Speaker 1: With the attacks on Iran's.

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Speaker 4: Nucleus, I think there was generally a sense that the Israelis,

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Speaker 4: if not the Americans, would attack Iran again, and I

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Speaker 4: think it was clear that the Iranians themselves were definitely

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Speaker 4: preparing for that. And my senses is that they went

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Speaker 4: into these last round of nuclear talks with the Americans

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Speaker 4: knowing that it was a possibility.

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Speaker 3: Well around Supreme Leader Ali Kamani was killed in a

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Speaker 3: targeted strike over the weekend. Iran was preparing. As you said,

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Speaker 3: they also had a plan for the death of the

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Speaker 3: Supreme Leader. What do we know about it.

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Speaker 4: We've seen reports over the past couple of weeks that, again,

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Speaker 4: since June, there has been a real serious effort to

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Speaker 4: just strategize and make plans for various scenarios and eventualities,

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Speaker 4: and part of that is increasing the layers of succession

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Speaker 4: for different leadership roles across these different security institutions and

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Speaker 4: military bodies, whether it's the IRGC, whether it's the Supreme

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Speaker 4: National Security Council.

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Speaker 1: Whether it's the new National Defense Council that.

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Speaker 4: Was established after the war with Israel in June.

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Speaker 1: So these contingencies exist.

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Speaker 4: And they are a number of layers thick according to

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Speaker 4: some sort of unconfirmed reports we've seen in terms of personnel.

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Speaker 4: So if there's one strike that gets rid of one

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Speaker 4: as Shalon, then you know there'll be someone underneath it

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Speaker 4: to take over. That's going to be increasingly challenging because

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Speaker 4: I'm guessing that there is a point at which you've

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Speaker 4: gone through all the layers of seniority. Having said that,

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Speaker 4: Iran's armed forces are substantial in sights, and there is

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Speaker 4: a sizeable proportion of Iran's population that is still very

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Speaker 4: loyal to the regime, it's questionable whether they are the majority.

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Speaker 4: I do not think they are at all. But Iran

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Speaker 4: is a country of ninety million people, and I still

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Speaker 4: there is a large number of people who are very

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Speaker 4: loyal to the Islamic Republic and who are part of

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Speaker 4: the governing political military apparatus that runs the country. Most

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Speaker 4: of the ranking individuals who were lost over the weekend

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Speaker 4: they've been replaced. They've announced this interim security Council that

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Speaker 4: consists of three very senior individuals, and one of whom

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Speaker 4: is from the Guardian Council, a very senior cleric who's

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Speaker 4: also rumored, this is completely speculative, but rumored as someone

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Speaker 4: who may also be in the running to ultimately replace

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Leader. But that three member council are at

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Speaker 4: the moment caretaking for decisions that would have otherwise been

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Speaker 4: taken by the Supreme Leader, and they're working very closely

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Speaker 4: with the head of the Supreme National Security Council, who

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Speaker 4: is Ali Lara Jarni, and the elected President Massu with Pezeshkia,

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Speaker 4: it takes on an even more prominent role than before

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 3: Well. On Saturday and the hours after the attack, President

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Speaker 3: Trump made a statement urging the people of around to

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Speaker 3: quote take over your government how likely is it that

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Speaker 3: the Iranian opposition will take power now and what would

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Speaker 3: that look like.

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Speaker 4: One of the achievements, if you want to use that word,

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Speaker 4: of the regime of the Exam Republic in the past

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Speaker 4: fifty years has been to very successfully ensure that an

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Speaker 4: effective opposition just cannot exist in the country, and anyone

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Speaker 4: who does speak up for the rights of women, just

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Speaker 4: basic human rights, civil liberties, they face prosecution and most

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Speaker 4: of them are in jail. But the population by and

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Speaker 4: large are very opposed and have been very opposed to

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Speaker 4: the Exam Republic for some time, and we have seen,

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Speaker 4: especially since twenty nineteen, the numbers of not just people

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Speaker 4: killed actively in protests go up, along with the numbers

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Speaker 4: of protests that actually take place, but also the number

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Speaker 4: of judicial executions as well that happened in the country.

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Speaker 3: After the break, Gulnar and I discussed what we know

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Speaker 3: about the US's endgame and how the war is already

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Speaker 3: impacting the flow and the price of oil.

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Speaker 2: We're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror

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Speaker 2: can never obtain a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 3: On the US side, I want to talk about what

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Speaker 3: Trump and Trump administration officials have said is the US

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Speaker 3: endgame here, How have officials explained why the US attacked

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Speaker 3: and what the plan is now?

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Speaker 4: The rational behind the US decision to attack Iran has changed.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's motivations for threatening Iran or threaten threatening regime

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Speaker 4: change have sort of flipped between wanting to protect the protesters,

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Speaker 4: many of whom who were under arrest were also at

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Speaker 4: risk of execution, but also then using the nuclear program,

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Speaker 4: Iran's nuclear program as a pretext to threaten and to

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Speaker 4: attack Iran. And one thing that's been interesting is that

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Speaker 4: both Donald Trump and Keir Starmer have referred to this

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Speaker 4: idea of you know, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 4: American officials have been saying this repeatedly for years, and

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Speaker 4: Iran has been saying repeatedly for years that we do

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Speaker 4: not intend to have a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 1: Our program is for peaceful purposes.

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Speaker 4: Only now, you know, obviously it's not good enough to

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Speaker 4: just say that. The negotiations, the round that they were

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Speaker 4: meant to have this week before the attacks started on Saturday,

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Speaker 4: was to provide Americans with a sense of confidence, an

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Speaker 4: iron clad guarantee that Iran would not weaponize its nuclear program.

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Speaker 4: And there's also been this argument that the more that

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Speaker 4: you push Iran and threaten it and do various things

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Speaker 4: like pilon sanctions, designate the RGC as a terrorist organization,

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Speaker 4: kill someone like General ars Same. Solemney abandoned the nuclear

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Speaker 4: deal that Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians on the

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Speaker 4: basis that it was Barack Obama's deal and you.

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Speaker 1: Felt that it was a good deal.

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Speaker 4: There's a school of thought that says doing this actually

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Speaker 4: pushes Iran further towards the calculation that having a nuclear

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Speaker 4: weapon is actually probably what it needs. And that is

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Speaker 4: something that Lara Jani, who is now very prominent at

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Speaker 4: the moment in Iran's decision making apparatus, has said in

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Speaker 4: the past. Right now, Iran is a member of the

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Speaker 4: Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, and that means that it is

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Speaker 4: prohibited from trying to acquire or developing nuclear weapons, but

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Speaker 4: it is also allowed to pursue a peaceful civilian nuclear program,

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Speaker 4: and Iranian officials have been insisting this is what they want.

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Speaker 4: The problem is is that there is no trust between

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Speaker 4: them and between countries like Israel, who have been threatened

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Speaker 4: by Iran for years and years and years and years

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Speaker 4: and are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a country

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Speaker 4: like Iran having indigenous nuclear enrichment capability.

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Speaker 3: So gonna I want to talk about the economic impacts

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Speaker 3: of this world. Oil prices have spaked, but not to

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Speaker 3: the extent that some have feared. Why is that.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are, or the market

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Speaker 4: at least may be taking into consideration the fact that

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Speaker 4: this can't go on forever, that there's a limit to

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Speaker 4: what both sides are able to maybe be tolerate. There's

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Speaker 4: certainly a limit to what the golf Arab states in

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Speaker 4: the Persian Gulf and stomach. They did not want to

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Speaker 4: get dragged into this war. They didn't want this. From

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Speaker 4: what we know from our sources is that they tried

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Speaker 4: to dissuade Donald Trump from going into this war. They

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Speaker 4: were very active in trying to facilitate the negotiations and

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Speaker 4: mediate between Steve Witcoff and the Uranian Forum Minster Appos

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Speaker 4: Arakchi because they didn't want a war. They don't want

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Speaker 4: missiles flying around their countries and populations. And these are

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Speaker 4: oil producing countries whose budgets depend on their ability to

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Speaker 4: sell oil at a certain price.

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Speaker 3: And opek Plus has responded by saying, you know, they're

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Speaker 3: going to resume oil production increases. Could that continue to

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Speaker 3: moderate oil prices if this conflict continues.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if they're not deciding to cut and they're actually

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Speaker 4: deciding to even ramp up production, that will definitely have

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Speaker 4: an impact on prices. It's just unclear at this stage

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Speaker 4: to what extent how much of the gains that a

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Speaker 4: decision like that will help to erase at this point.

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Speaker 3: And Gondard, this is a very fast moving situation. There's

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Speaker 3: questions about Iranian succession plans, about further attacks in the region,

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Speaker 3: about the ripple effects on the global economy. But where

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Speaker 3: do you expect this conflict to go from here? What

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Speaker 3: are you watching for in the hours and days ahead.

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Speaker 4: I think the one thing that concerns me a great

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Speaker 4: deal is the civilian toll, the number of civilians that

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Speaker 4: are being killed right now, particularly in Iran. It's very

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Speaker 4: difficult to rely on the state media in Iran to

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Speaker 4: give a death toll and to kind of break down

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Speaker 4: that death toll in terms of civilians, and the same

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Speaker 4: with infrastructure, with the loss of infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: In Iran and.

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Speaker 4: Just the basic basic eydea that there doesn't seem to

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Speaker 4: be any long term planning or thinking on the American

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Speaker 4: side or amongst the Israelis about what happens in Iran next.

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Speaker 4: I think Pete Hegseth said today that this wasn't a

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Speaker 4: regime change.

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Speaker 1: War, but it did change the regime.

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Speaker 4: And then he said something along the lines of we'll

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Speaker 4: leave it to the Iranians to decide what to do it.

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Speaker 4: And I think there's a recklessness in that inherent in

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Speaker 4: that statement, because it's a way of saying, we're just gonna,

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Speaker 4: you know, do the attack. This phrase that often people

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Speaker 4: use cut off the head of the snake and then

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Speaker 4: just let people to get on with it, and I

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Speaker 4: don't know what that means getting on with it. I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure that anyone's really thought that through, and that's.

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Speaker 1: What what worries me.

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Speaker 4: I think the concept of regime change as we know

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Speaker 4: it is freighted with the weight of that question and

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Speaker 4: always has been. And partly the reason why it has

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Speaker 4: been is because I don't think there are that many

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Speaker 4: examples in history where this type of intervention has ever

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Speaker 4: been successful led to anything good fast.

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Speaker 3: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah

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Speaker 3: Holder to get more from the Big Take and unlimited

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com. Slash Podcast offer Thanks for listening. We'll

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Speaker 3: be back tomorrow