WEBVTT - Will Trump Concede? 0:00:15.396 --> 0:00:22.716 Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 0:00:22.756 --> 0:00:26.236 where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 0:00:26.716 --> 0:00:31.036 I'm Noah Feldman. We're about a month out now from 0:00:31.036 --> 0:00:34.756 what promises to be a historic election and what might 0:00:34.836 --> 0:00:40.716 become a historically chaotic election. Before Donald Trump tested positive 0:00:40.756 --> 0:00:44.476 for the stars Cove two virus, he refused in a 0:00:44.516 --> 0:00:48.116 presidential debate to commit to a peaceful transfer of power 0:00:48.476 --> 0:00:52.316 if he lost. Now his diagnosis has plunged things even 0:00:52.396 --> 0:00:57.036 further into uncertainty. The question that is preoccupying me is 0:00:57.036 --> 0:00:59.556 not just the health of the president, but the health 0:00:59.596 --> 0:01:04.036 of our democracy. How worried should we really be about 0:01:04.036 --> 0:01:07.596 the pressures that are currently being put on our electoral 0:01:07.676 --> 0:01:12.916 system and our pacity to transfer power. To discuss this, 0:01:13.076 --> 0:01:15.796 we are joined by one of the most renowned scholars 0:01:15.836 --> 0:01:19.916 of democracy in the world and someone whose work has deeply, 0:01:20.036 --> 0:01:25.596 deeply influenced my own throughout my career. That's Adam Chavorski. 0:01:26.236 --> 0:01:29.596 He's a professor emeritus at New York University. He was 0:01:29.636 --> 0:01:33.556 the twenty ten recipient of the Skyte Prize, which has 0:01:33.556 --> 0:01:39.716 been nicknamed the Nobel Prize for political scientists. Adam, thank 0:01:39.756 --> 0:01:42.276 you so much. For being here. When I was watching 0:01:42.276 --> 0:01:46.916 the presidential debate and I saw Donald Trump refusing to 0:01:46.996 --> 0:01:51.956 acknowledge that he would peacefully transfer power, I thought to myself, 0:01:52.196 --> 0:01:55.196 there's only one person I can have on the podcast 0:01:55.356 --> 0:01:59.556 to talk about transitions of power, and that is Adam Chavorski. 0:02:00.276 --> 0:02:02.796 And I want to start with the most fundamental question 0:02:02.876 --> 0:02:09.036 of all, which is transitions into democracy. What makes them 0:02:09.236 --> 0:02:11.556 work when they do work, so that we can then 0:02:11.636 --> 0:02:15.196 explore what makes them not work when they don't work. Well, 0:02:15.236 --> 0:02:18.076 I really appreciate the introduction. I have been at this 0:02:18.316 --> 0:02:23.476 for probably forty years, so yes, I've thought about it 0:02:23.796 --> 0:02:28.236 different ways. I recently published a book on Why Bothered 0:02:28.316 --> 0:02:31.916 with Elections, and what really struck me is how a 0:02:32.076 --> 0:02:37.396 routine elections are for us? Yes, I mean what happens 0:02:37.396 --> 0:02:43.196 in elections. People vote, somebody is declared winner according to 0:02:43.316 --> 0:02:48.596 the rules. The winner moves into some palace, the White House, 0:02:48.916 --> 0:02:53.276 the pink House in Argentina, the blue House in South Korea. 0:02:53.436 --> 0:02:57.956 The loser goes toward bridge called back benches. Were governed 0:02:57.956 --> 0:03:01.676 for a few years, and then the rituals repeated again, 0:03:02.316 --> 0:03:07.316 and we just completely take it as routine. It's not 0:03:07.396 --> 0:03:10.236 quite routine. Because there are sixty countries in the world 0:03:10.236 --> 0:03:15.516 as of today which never experience peaceful transfer of power 0:03:15.636 --> 0:03:20.876 through elections, including China and Russia. So why does it work. 0:03:21.436 --> 0:03:26.036 It works because typically not too much is at stake, 0:03:26.836 --> 0:03:32.476 in the sense that whoever loses elections will suffer from 0:03:32.676 --> 0:03:39.876 policies that supporters of the losers don't like, but not 0:03:39.956 --> 0:03:43.956 too much, and we'll have a chance to win again. 0:03:44.596 --> 0:03:48.476 Just thinking about the US Bush following Clinton Bush versus 0:03:48.556 --> 0:03:54.036 Gore election that hung on the hair the Supreme Court decided, 0:03:54.116 --> 0:03:56.836 even as though it wasn't clear that it was the 0:03:56.916 --> 0:04:01.516 court that was supposed to decide, and basically what the 0:04:01.556 --> 0:04:06.596 Democratic Party and what the Gore decided decided, it's just 0:04:06.676 --> 0:04:11.116 too costly to fight. We got to suffer from Bush policies, 0:04:12.156 --> 0:04:15.036 but we're gonna have a chance to win again. And 0:04:15.156 --> 0:04:18.676 then Obama one and we probably thought, what we're going 0:04:18.756 --> 0:04:23.156 to suffer through four years maybe eight years, and then 0:04:23.196 --> 0:04:26.996 we're going to win again, And what happened. Trump won. Yes. 0:04:27.596 --> 0:04:31.796 So I think that what makes it work specifically are 0:04:31.836 --> 0:04:36.876 two conditions. One that the winner does not hurt the 0:04:36.996 --> 0:04:40.276 loser too much. That is that the stakes in the 0:04:40.396 --> 0:04:44.516 election are not too high, and two that the loser 0:04:45.076 --> 0:04:49.316 is not denied the chance to win again. As long 0:04:49.356 --> 0:04:54.196 as these two conditions hold, elections work. These two conditions, though, 0:04:54.676 --> 0:04:57.396 aren't naturally occurring, as you point out. I mean, that's 0:04:57.436 --> 0:04:59.676 one reason why you have sixty eight countries that haven't 0:04:59.676 --> 0:05:05.916 had a peaceful transfer. They're each the product of certain customs, practices, 0:05:05.956 --> 0:05:10.316 and norms that maybe derived from the self interest of 0:05:10.356 --> 0:05:14.476 both parties in some way, but nevertheless have been routinized. 0:05:14.516 --> 0:05:16.836 So when you say an election is routine, it feels 0:05:16.916 --> 0:05:20.556 routine because we have some custom that makes it a routine. 0:05:21.156 --> 0:05:26.316 So what happens when one side starts to believe that 0:05:26.596 --> 0:05:29.396 it might be able to play around the edges of 0:05:29.396 --> 0:05:33.636 that routine and maybe change things around, and the other 0:05:33.676 --> 0:05:36.596 side starts to think, well, maybe the other side isn't 0:05:36.596 --> 0:05:39.156 going to follow the routine, maybe they'll do things differently. 0:05:39.156 --> 0:05:40.956 I mean, for me, the first moment when I saw 0:05:40.996 --> 0:05:43.556 a real breaking of this was in the twenty sixteen election, 0:05:44.076 --> 0:05:47.756 when Trump was leading supporters in the lock her up formulation. 0:05:48.116 --> 0:05:50.516 You said, the first condition is the loser doesn't suffer 0:05:50.596 --> 0:05:53.716 that much, but the threat he didn't actually do it, 0:05:53.756 --> 0:05:56.236 but the threat of locking up your opponent is a 0:05:56.316 --> 0:05:58.956 break from the routine of saying the opponent won't suffer 0:05:59.036 --> 0:06:01.916 that much. And similarly, the idea of being able to 0:06:01.996 --> 0:06:04.956 run again works well if you have a chance of winning, 0:06:05.076 --> 0:06:08.116 but if the winner tries to institutionalize its power, it 0:06:08.196 --> 0:06:10.156 can make it harder for the other side to win 0:06:10.876 --> 0:06:13.796 the next time. So how do we sustain these customs 0:06:13.836 --> 0:06:17.356 to make it routine? Well, all I can tell you 0:06:17.596 --> 0:06:22.676 is that I know that the mechan doesn't works under 0:06:22.716 --> 0:06:28.636 the conditions which I just specified, and I'm utterly, utterly surprised, 0:06:28.956 --> 0:06:32.756 as much as anybody else, in spite of forty years 0:06:32.756 --> 0:06:35.996 of work on this topic, that that would break down. 0:06:36.396 --> 0:06:38.316 Let me just say what I heard, lock her up. 0:06:39.116 --> 0:06:43.116 I found it ominous, But not just this. You know, 0:06:43.236 --> 0:06:47.476 the first time Trump said that the only possible way 0:06:47.596 --> 0:06:51.596 he could lose would be because election would be fraudulent 0:06:52.236 --> 0:06:55.516 was three years ago. It wasn't just now. I remember 0:06:55.636 --> 0:07:00.956 that exactly was my experience with this phenomena. It just 0:07:00.996 --> 0:07:05.836 started smelling very badly to me already at that moment. 0:07:06.916 --> 0:07:10.196 What I know is this, you have correct that it 0:07:10.276 --> 0:07:15.756 becomes a habit, and that interests are codified as norms. 0:07:16.356 --> 0:07:20.996 So one study I did was I looked what is 0:07:21.036 --> 0:07:26.236 the probability that the elections will break down as a 0:07:26.316 --> 0:07:31.476 function of past alternations in office between parties in the 0:07:31.596 --> 0:07:34.996 history of a particular country. And it turns out that 0:07:35.316 --> 0:07:39.556 once a country has four or five alternations, the probably 0:07:39.716 --> 0:07:44.236 that the mechanism will stop working is almost zero. United 0:07:44.276 --> 0:07:48.996 States had twenty two or twenty three alternations. I calculated 0:07:49.076 --> 0:07:52.916 that probability for the United States. It turns out to 0:07:52.956 --> 0:07:57.836 be one in one point eight million. That is how 0:07:57.996 --> 0:08:03.116 unprecedented that event is. So how much do you believe 0:08:03.236 --> 0:08:05.796 your study? I mean, the good news would be and 0:08:05.836 --> 0:08:09.556 then our listeners could feel very happy that all that 0:08:09.996 --> 0:08:13.596 President Trump is talking in ways that break our norms 0:08:13.636 --> 0:08:17.796 about how we should speak. He hasn't actually done that yet. 0:08:17.836 --> 0:08:20.916 He did not lock up Hillary Clinton, he has not 0:08:20.996 --> 0:08:24.756 yet refused to leave office after a transition. And so 0:08:25.276 --> 0:08:28.236 there's an argument that says this is all talk. And 0:08:28.276 --> 0:08:30.796 then we would hear you tell us that you know 0:08:30.836 --> 0:08:33.156 the odds are one and one point eight million based 0:08:33.156 --> 0:08:36.276 on this analysis that Trump would break the rules, and 0:08:36.316 --> 0:08:38.716 then we can sleep a little better at night. Or 0:08:38.756 --> 0:08:42.076 do you think, well, it's just a probability and of course, 0:08:42.436 --> 0:08:45.516 unlikely things sometimes happen. What is your instinct in reaction 0:08:45.556 --> 0:08:48.916 to that, to your own study. My instinctive reaction is 0:08:48.956 --> 0:08:57.316 that I am in a deep intellectual crisis, and perhaps 0:08:57.436 --> 0:09:04.196 my entire discipline should be. The way we study things 0:09:04.476 --> 0:09:08.836 is basically, we observe past patterns and we tried to 0:09:09.236 --> 0:09:13.916 row lessons from history. That's what most of our work 0:09:13.996 --> 0:09:17.596 and political science and to a large extent, economics is. 0:09:18.796 --> 0:09:23.196 And the lessons of studying the past is exactly where 0:09:23.276 --> 0:09:27.076 just Storgy it's one in one point eight million. So 0:09:27.156 --> 0:09:32.716 suddenly there's a feeling of learning lessons from history is 0:09:33.236 --> 0:09:39.116 much less certain of an endeavor that we believe it 0:09:39.156 --> 0:09:47.356 may end up peacefully institutionally without a major collapse. But 0:09:47.476 --> 0:09:51.476 in some sense it has already happened. The fact that 0:09:51.556 --> 0:09:56.836 we are discussing the role of the armed forces in 0:09:56.876 --> 0:10:02.436 a constitutional crisis, the fact that we are discussing wondering 0:10:02.476 --> 0:10:06.796 about political postures of the police, the fact that we're 0:10:06.796 --> 0:10:10.916 wondering about potential be behavior of the actions of the 0:10:10.996 --> 0:10:16.196 Secret Service, the fact that relations of physical force have 0:10:16.476 --> 0:10:20.716 come to be a subject of public discourse. For me, 0:10:21.156 --> 0:10:25.996 this means that has already happened. That the unprecedented, unexpected, 0:10:26.116 --> 0:10:32.396 unimaginable has already happened. I wasn't Jill in August of 0:10:32.556 --> 0:10:37.516 nineteen seventy three, a month before an extraordinary bloody good 0:10:37.556 --> 0:10:41.236 at time. And I remember at that time people were 0:10:41.356 --> 0:10:48.236 counting how many generals are adhering to a constitutional position 0:10:48.316 --> 0:10:51.076 that the president cannot be removed was sort of a 0:10:51.156 --> 0:10:55.556 daily count. And this sounds similar. Let me try to 0:10:55.676 --> 0:10:59.476 use Sworsky against Sworsky, now, okay, So let me try 0:10:59.476 --> 0:11:03.316 to offer a more sanguine picture, and it would be 0:11:03.356 --> 0:11:09.116 based on a distinction between unwritten norms that one person 0:11:09.396 --> 0:11:14.316 can challenge and written norms that many institutions would have 0:11:14.316 --> 0:11:18.316 to participate in challenging. And so the counterargument, again based 0:11:18.356 --> 0:11:22.636 on your premises, would be like this, Sure, Donald Trump 0:11:22.836 --> 0:11:25.596 on his own can say things that have never been 0:11:25.636 --> 0:11:29.076 said before, like I might not leave office, never been 0:11:29.076 --> 0:11:31.516 said in the United States, and then that drives the 0:11:31.556 --> 0:11:33.636 discourse in just the ways that you were describing, And 0:11:33.636 --> 0:11:35.476 then we have to have this discourse that was before 0:11:35.556 --> 0:11:39.836 unimaginable and that on the surface sounds like Chile in 0:11:39.916 --> 0:11:44.396 nineteen seventy three. But the counter argument would be for 0:11:44.476 --> 0:11:48.316 Trump actually to take these steps. He couldn't act alone. 0:11:48.756 --> 0:11:50.756 I mean, if the election clearly went to Biden, and 0:11:50.796 --> 0:11:54.756 Biden were sworn in with Trump refusing to participate, the 0:11:54.836 --> 0:11:58.276 Secret Service would then escort Donald Trump out of the 0:11:58.316 --> 0:12:02.716 White House. If Congress got involved and tried to change 0:12:02.716 --> 0:12:04.716 the electoral outcome, then that would be an institution. It 0:12:04.716 --> 0:12:07.356 would take hundreds and hundreds of people. If the Supreme 0:12:07.396 --> 0:12:09.836 Court got involved, that would take at least a majority 0:12:09.876 --> 0:12:13.356 of the nine people. And so the argument then would 0:12:13.356 --> 0:12:16.716 be that the fact that the discourse has changed is 0:12:16.716 --> 0:12:20.076 a product of one man, whereas a change in our 0:12:20.116 --> 0:12:24.796 institutions would take many, many people. So this is an 0:12:24.836 --> 0:12:29.076 attempt to tell a different story again based on your premises. Well, 0:12:29.636 --> 0:12:33.836 here's there were Stu. The situation. I study what I 0:12:33.876 --> 0:12:38.556 think is the best model predicting the distribution of electoral 0:12:38.636 --> 0:12:40.916 vote as a result of election, which is the five 0:12:41.076 --> 0:12:44.796 thirty eight model. So, according to that model, as of today, 0:12:44.836 --> 0:12:48.836 more or less, Trump has one chance in five to win, 0:12:49.916 --> 0:12:54.316 Biden has probably about one chance in two about fifty 0:12:55.756 --> 0:12:59.516 to win by a landslide. If Trump wins, Hu wins, 0:13:00.236 --> 0:13:04.276 if Biden wins by a landslide, I think there's every 0:13:04.276 --> 0:13:08.876 reason to think that all the other potential institutional actors 0:13:09.636 --> 0:13:15.596 will force Trump to comply with the result. So there is, 0:13:15.636 --> 0:13:19.876 as I see it, about thirty percent that Biden will 0:13:19.916 --> 0:13:24.396 win a little by a small margin, and then this 0:13:24.556 --> 0:13:28.156 country turns out to be weird. I never studied the 0:13:28.276 --> 0:13:32.316 US much, and I'm not a constitutional lawyer like yours. 0:13:33.236 --> 0:13:36.036 You should be thinking about it, not me. But the 0:13:36.196 --> 0:13:42.196 rules defineing who is the victor extraordinary uncleared. This is 0:13:42.236 --> 0:13:46.036 the only country in the world which doesn't have clearer 0:13:46.276 --> 0:13:51.516 rules about what determines the winner. I think that in 0:13:51.556 --> 0:13:56.436 that thirty percent area in which Biden would win by 0:13:56.476 --> 0:14:00.156 a little, it's going to be a complete mess. The 0:14:00.196 --> 0:14:02.676 analogy that I like to use in thinking about this 0:14:02.796 --> 0:14:05.796 is that the US constitutional system and then the statutes 0:14:05.876 --> 0:14:09.356 that govern what happens in an election are like a 0:14:09.436 --> 0:14:12.996 bridge built in seventeen eighty seven when there were only 0:14:13.356 --> 0:14:18.316 horse drawn carriages to cross it, and then over time, 0:14:18.836 --> 0:14:22.076 as people said, well now we have some cars, there 0:14:22.116 --> 0:14:24.476 was an effort to reinforce it. You know, some metal 0:14:24.596 --> 0:14:28.156 was tacked on the bottom, and we said, well it's okay, 0:14:28.196 --> 0:14:30.196 because we just haven't had a problem with it. It's 0:14:30.236 --> 0:14:34.076 shaken a few times. In eighteen seventy six it almost 0:14:34.076 --> 0:14:37.516 collapsed and then they made a temporary solution to it. 0:14:37.836 --> 0:14:40.916 Then again in two thousand in the Bush Vigor election, 0:14:40.996 --> 0:14:43.516 it almost collapsed, and that time we had Dao sex Machi. 0:14:43.596 --> 0:14:45.556 Now we had the Supreme Court come in, which is 0:14:45.556 --> 0:14:48.516 not anywhere in the design, and the Supreme Court said, well, 0:14:48.556 --> 0:14:50.716 we've solved it. And at first that looked illegitimate, but 0:14:50.716 --> 0:14:53.516 within a few weeks everyone said, well, at least somebody 0:14:53.556 --> 0:14:56.516 resolved it. At least the bridge is still functioning. And 0:14:56.676 --> 0:14:59.636 the dangerous part, of course, is if the tank were 0:14:59.676 --> 0:15:02.836 to go across that bridge, the bridge might just literally 0:15:02.876 --> 0:15:04.956 not be able to support it anymore. So there is 0:15:04.996 --> 0:15:10.236 a problem with having very old institutions at work, not 0:15:10.316 --> 0:15:13.956 by an explicit rule, not because a proper engineer has 0:15:13.956 --> 0:15:17.516 designed the bridge to work, but because it's always worked 0:15:17.636 --> 0:15:19.756 and there's an expectation of it working. So I agree 0:15:19.756 --> 0:15:23.196 that that's a tremendous vulnerability, but it's also a sign of, 0:15:23.276 --> 0:15:25.996 in a sense, the success of the system. Right. One 0:15:25.996 --> 0:15:29.756 of the reasons that most global systems of elections or 0:15:29.796 --> 0:15:33.116 even global constitutions are newer is that they have broken 0:15:33.156 --> 0:15:37.356 down more recently and been replaced. The US Constitution broke 0:15:37.436 --> 0:15:41.356 once disastrously in the Civil War, but for you know, 0:15:41.436 --> 0:15:44.596 around one hundred and sixty years, it's been more or 0:15:44.676 --> 0:15:47.156 less functional. But that's no guarantee that it will continue 0:15:47.156 --> 0:15:52.356 to function. Yes, this is what made it unimaginable. Precisely 0:15:52.436 --> 0:15:55.276 it worked. The system worked, I agree with you, And 0:15:55.356 --> 0:15:57.996 to what extent it's interest to all extens rules, to 0:15:58.116 --> 0:16:01.236 all extend its norms, to what extent has just habit. 0:16:02.036 --> 0:16:06.236 We just could never imagine that it will break down. 0:16:06.996 --> 0:16:10.596 And it turns out the one to cons possibly broke down. 0:16:11.156 --> 0:16:14.636 Then the institutional assistance. I'm sorry to say, the constitution, 0:16:15.276 --> 0:16:28.756 it's just useless. We'll be back in a moment. One 0:16:28.836 --> 0:16:32.356 of the central themes that I learned from the work 0:16:32.436 --> 0:16:35.076 you were doing in the early nineties in the immediate 0:16:35.116 --> 0:16:40.156 aftermath of the Eastern European transitions was that one way 0:16:40.196 --> 0:16:44.716 to look at democracies that work that alternate power, is 0:16:44.716 --> 0:16:48.956 that there are powerful people on both sides who know 0:16:49.236 --> 0:16:51.916 that they have a lot to gain from the system 0:16:51.996 --> 0:16:54.516 working and who know that they have a lot to 0:16:54.596 --> 0:16:57.756 lose from the system failing. And in one of the 0:16:57.796 --> 0:17:00.596 formulations that you sometimes used in that period of time, 0:17:01.316 --> 0:17:05.276 you suggested that really democracy can be understood almost as 0:17:05.316 --> 0:17:08.436 just a pact or an agreement between these different elites 0:17:09.276 --> 0:17:12.476 that they're going to alternate in power and the elections running. 0:17:12.476 --> 0:17:15.116 At the time, you were suggesting it almost didn't matter 0:17:15.156 --> 0:17:17.196 if we used elections, if we could flip a coin 0:17:17.396 --> 0:17:20.276 and the parties could change power, that might not be 0:17:20.316 --> 0:17:23.116 as good, it wouldn't be as legitimate publicly. But from 0:17:23.116 --> 0:17:26.196 the standpoint of the elites who knew that I'm going 0:17:26.236 --> 0:17:28.436 to have my next chance at power, and that you 0:17:28.516 --> 0:17:30.276 the other side, are not going to put me in prison, 0:17:30.316 --> 0:17:32.276 You're not going to take away my wealth, and you 0:17:32.276 --> 0:17:34.476 will allow me to run and defeat you the next time, 0:17:34.996 --> 0:17:38.556 the alternation was just powerfully in self interest. Now that 0:17:38.676 --> 0:17:41.556 self interest among elites is still very present in the 0:17:41.636 --> 0:17:45.636 United States. If we actually had a constitutional crisis, it 0:17:45.636 --> 0:17:48.836 would be a disaster for the stock market, and tremendous 0:17:48.836 --> 0:17:52.156 amount of wealth would be destroyed. Almost certainly, it would 0:17:52.196 --> 0:17:55.116 be probably okay for the regular economy, but the elites, 0:17:55.316 --> 0:17:57.356 a lot of whose wealth is bound up in the markets, 0:17:57.596 --> 0:18:00.996 would have a great deal to lose. So what about 0:18:00.996 --> 0:18:04.516 the thought that those elites of whom Donald Trump is 0:18:04.556 --> 0:18:08.516 won just can't tolerate the destruction of wealth that would 0:18:08.516 --> 0:18:13.156 be associated by a genuine constitutional crisis, and so they 0:18:13.236 --> 0:18:16.276 will not allow it to happen. Those elites will say 0:18:16.636 --> 0:18:19.436 to other Republicans, and indeed maybe to Donald Trump personally, 0:18:20.236 --> 0:18:22.836 you can't do this. We have too much to lose, 0:18:23.356 --> 0:18:26.116 and we're not going to allow this kind of an outcome, 0:18:26.196 --> 0:18:28.956 because that is I will say, again, under your influence. 0:18:29.356 --> 0:18:31.596 That is often the way I look at this transfer 0:18:31.636 --> 0:18:33.156 of power. But I can see you're shaking your head. 0:18:33.796 --> 0:18:37.116 Shaking my head for the following reason. I believe exactly 0:18:37.156 --> 0:18:41.596 what you said. But why haven't they done it already? 0:18:42.156 --> 0:18:48.556 Why couldn't they have constrained Trump already? Why such a 0:18:48.636 --> 0:18:54.956 large segment of business establishment still supports it? Somehow, I 0:18:55.036 --> 0:18:58.396 have an impression that a large part of business establishment 0:18:58.436 --> 0:19:01.676 in this country is willing to trade lower taxes and 0:19:01.796 --> 0:19:07.116 der regulation for the cost of a violent conflict. And 0:19:07.436 --> 0:19:10.076 I'm amazed by that. Well, that is amazing. If that 0:19:10.076 --> 0:19:11.796 were true, I think that would be really amazing. So 0:19:11.876 --> 0:19:15.476 let me offer a different interpretation of the business elites position. 0:19:16.356 --> 0:19:20.116 It's that they don't believe that Trump is serious about 0:19:20.276 --> 0:19:23.196 not stepping down from office. That's always difficult to interpret 0:19:23.236 --> 0:19:26.436 the stock market perfectly. But the stock market seems not 0:19:26.516 --> 0:19:30.476 to be worried about Trump actually doing that. And if 0:19:30.516 --> 0:19:32.876 you speak to business elite, many will tell you, and 0:19:32.876 --> 0:19:35.276 I've had many people say this to me, doesn't matter 0:19:35.316 --> 0:19:37.956 what Trump says, it matters what Trump does. What he's 0:19:37.956 --> 0:19:40.036 done has been good for us. And then there are 0:19:40.036 --> 0:19:43.356 also some very high ranking Republicans whom I sometimes speak to, 0:19:43.676 --> 0:19:46.396 always confidentially. They don't want to me to tell anybody 0:19:46.396 --> 0:19:47.836 that I'm speaking to them, and maybe I don't want 0:19:47.836 --> 0:19:49.796 to tell people that I'm speaking to them either, but 0:19:49.836 --> 0:19:51.676 they say, look, he's not going to do this, He's 0:19:51.676 --> 0:19:54.916 not insane. This is a form of political rhetoric. Now 0:19:54.956 --> 0:19:56.756 I'm not saying that they're right about that. What I'm 0:19:56.756 --> 0:19:59.996 telling you is the perception. And if that perception we're 0:19:59.996 --> 0:20:02.676 shared by business elites, they would say, look, we want 0:20:02.676 --> 0:20:05.676 Donald Trump to win because we want to continue with 0:20:05.716 --> 0:20:08.316 the low tax rates and the low regulation. So we 0:20:08.356 --> 0:20:12.836 support him, but we don't think that the risk of 0:20:13.036 --> 0:20:15.956 disruption to the system is really all that high. And 0:20:16.076 --> 0:20:19.356 the market agrees with us, and so it's all going 0:20:19.436 --> 0:20:23.836 to be fine. And if liberals and scholars want to 0:20:23.836 --> 0:20:26.996 get all panicky. Let them. You know, we reasonable people 0:20:27.036 --> 0:20:29.876 who do everything in terms of dollars and cents, just 0:20:30.036 --> 0:20:33.876 aren't really that worried about this. I hope you're right. 0:20:34.476 --> 0:20:39.316 I would have expected you to be right. But there 0:20:39.316 --> 0:20:41.916 are two aspect of the situations which were me and 0:20:41.956 --> 0:20:46.476 I don't attach probabilities to them. These are worries, no probabilities. 0:20:47.516 --> 0:20:51.836 One is that to some extent the genie of violence 0:20:51.996 --> 0:20:57.316 may have already been out of the bottle, that militious 0:20:57.596 --> 0:21:04.676 paramilitary groups. Now I wonder to what extent Trump controls 0:21:04.716 --> 0:21:08.716 them or could control them. But more and here, if 0:21:08.756 --> 0:21:12.436 you know, this is pure speculation, and again it touches 0:21:12.436 --> 0:21:16.596 on laws. But I wonder now whether Trump can afford 0:21:16.676 --> 0:21:22.556 to lose given all the disclosures about his financial You know, 0:21:23.196 --> 0:21:27.836 locking up is not impossible anymore, it seems, at least 0:21:27.836 --> 0:21:30.756 from what I read and talk to my lawyer friends, 0:21:31.476 --> 0:21:34.356 it seems that he could be very easily charged with 0:21:34.596 --> 0:21:40.876 committing several offenses. And if that's what's at stake, then 0:21:41.356 --> 0:21:44.716 he will fight to the last ditch. He may be abandoned, 0:21:44.956 --> 0:21:48.836 and hopefully he would be abandoned, but that he can 0:21:48.916 --> 0:21:54.476 be persuaded. I don't know. Well, let's take those in 0:21:54.556 --> 0:21:58.556 reverse order. So in terms of criminal liability, I think 0:21:58.596 --> 0:22:04.076 it's almost impossible to imagine Joe Biden in office allowing 0:22:04.236 --> 0:22:07.796 a criminal prosecution of Donald Trump to proceed at the 0:22:07.836 --> 0:22:10.516 federal level. And I think the reason for that is 0:22:10.516 --> 0:22:12.436 that Joe Biden is, you know, as we keep hearing 0:22:12.516 --> 0:22:15.436 from the president forty seven years in Washington, he's a 0:22:15.476 --> 0:22:18.076 product of the system and he follows the norm. So 0:22:18.116 --> 0:22:20.636 he wouldn't do it. And no president has done that 0:22:20.676 --> 0:22:22.716 in the past, and it's not just of presidents, but 0:22:22.756 --> 0:22:26.516 even of lower down officials. I think Trump doesn't have 0:22:26.556 --> 0:22:29.076 to worry about that. He might have to worry about 0:22:29.596 --> 0:22:34.716 state prosecution in New York State, but so far, there's 0:22:34.836 --> 0:22:40.436 nothing that would politically force the New York State prosecutors 0:22:40.876 --> 0:22:44.236 to go forward. There may be some things where they 0:22:44.316 --> 0:22:47.676 could go forward with respect to what Trump said to 0:22:47.756 --> 0:22:51.836 various banks when he borrowed money, but it's relatively rare 0:22:51.876 --> 0:22:54.716 for those things to be prosecuted criminally. Formally, they can be, 0:22:54.836 --> 0:22:58.476 but the prosecutors have enormous discretion and it would be 0:22:58.516 --> 0:23:02.276 so controversial for the prosecutor to do so. That, although 0:23:02.316 --> 0:23:05.516 it's possible, again, it's possible to imagine. I think Trump's 0:23:05.596 --> 0:23:10.476 vulnerability to criminal prosecution is actually very low on leaving office, 0:23:10.876 --> 0:23:13.116 so of course it's conceivable. But I think it's a 0:23:13.156 --> 0:23:16.436 mistake to confuse the formal fact that he has done 0:23:16.476 --> 0:23:19.556 things that could get him prosecuted with a credible fear 0:23:19.596 --> 0:23:22.316 of prosecution. I don't think Trump really fears prosecution. You've 0:23:22.356 --> 0:23:25.876 just made me feel better. With respect to the militias 0:23:25.996 --> 0:23:29.596 and the paramilitary groups, that's a trickier and more complicated question. 0:23:29.756 --> 0:23:32.236 The first thing that has to be acknowledged is these 0:23:32.236 --> 0:23:35.396 groups exist, and this is the United States. So they 0:23:35.436 --> 0:23:39.716 have guns, and not just handguns, but assault style weapons, 0:23:39.716 --> 0:23:42.036 and you can see them on television. So their existence 0:23:42.396 --> 0:23:45.996 is serious and can't be ignored. We had a professor 0:23:46.156 --> 0:23:48.876 from the Unity of Chicago on this podcast one of 0:23:48.876 --> 0:23:50.756 our first episodes we did. She's an expert on white 0:23:50.756 --> 0:23:55.036 supremacist groups and she's written a very compelling book tracing 0:23:55.036 --> 0:23:57.116 the history of the white supremacist movement in the United 0:23:57.156 --> 0:24:00.476 States back actually to the post Vietnam era, and she 0:24:00.556 --> 0:24:03.396 makes a very strong case that it's coordinated, that it's organized, 0:24:03.636 --> 0:24:06.556 that it has objectives, and she sees the Proud Boys 0:24:06.596 --> 0:24:09.116 whom Trump referred to the other day in the debate, 0:24:09.116 --> 0:24:11.596 as you just wrote an not bed. This professor just 0:24:11.596 --> 0:24:12.876 wrote an not bed in the New York Times saying 0:24:12.876 --> 0:24:14.796 their Proud Boys are squarely a part of that movement. 0:24:14.796 --> 0:24:16.676 So it's real, and I want to acknowledge that it's real. 0:24:17.796 --> 0:24:20.516 That said, it's not very organized internally. These are not 0:24:20.596 --> 0:24:23.796 very well organized militias. And although they no doubt feel 0:24:23.876 --> 0:24:28.276 allegiance to Trump, he doesn't control them in the sense 0:24:28.356 --> 0:24:33.236 in which a dictator in an authoritarian state might control 0:24:33.356 --> 0:24:37.076 paramilitary groups. They don't have senior group of leaders who 0:24:37.116 --> 0:24:40.356 answer to them, there's no financial source of funding. It's 0:24:40.356 --> 0:24:44.396 an ideological kind of loose affiliation. And it's also not 0:24:44.436 --> 0:24:46.556 clear that their numbers are very great. And there's debate 0:24:46.556 --> 0:24:48.036 about this, but it's not clear that the numbers are 0:24:48.116 --> 0:24:50.156 very great. There are enough people to do damage because 0:24:50.156 --> 0:24:52.316 they have weapons, and I don't want to minimize this, 0:24:52.356 --> 0:24:54.396 and I don't want to minimize the handful of deaths 0:24:54.436 --> 0:24:56.796 that they have caused, nor do I want to minimize 0:24:56.836 --> 0:24:58.516 the risk that they pose. They do pose a great 0:24:58.596 --> 0:25:01.196 risk to our sense of social order, but I guess 0:25:01.196 --> 0:25:03.516 I don't see them as rising to the level of 0:25:03.516 --> 0:25:06.316 the kinds of organizations they could make any kind of 0:25:06.316 --> 0:25:10.236 a credible attempt to take control of insta atitutions or 0:25:10.276 --> 0:25:13.636 to take control of streets in that sort of way, 0:25:14.076 --> 0:25:16.716 And I think we're still very, very far from them 0:25:16.836 --> 0:25:24.036 having that kind of capacity. Again, you made me feel better. 0:25:24.076 --> 0:25:30.116 I suppose there's a saying in Polish that a pessimist 0:25:30.276 --> 0:25:38.356 is but an informed optimist. Perhaps I tend to error 0:25:38.396 --> 0:25:43.596 in this direction, perhaps just because I'm just overwhelmed by 0:25:43.596 --> 0:25:50.876 the unprecedented character of our discussion. But if I may 0:25:50.996 --> 0:25:56.236 diverge from the narrow issue of democracy, transfer of power, etc. 0:25:57.316 --> 0:26:01.076 This whole situation is deeper. This is not just a 0:26:01.156 --> 0:26:05.596 matter of elections. It's not just a matter of political strategies. 0:26:06.276 --> 0:26:12.276 It has deep roots into society. We are polarized, not 0:26:12.396 --> 0:26:15.796