1 00:00:15,396 --> 00:00:22,716 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:22,756 --> 00:00:26,236 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:26,716 --> 00:00:31,036 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. We're about a month out now from 4 00:00:31,036 --> 00:00:34,756 Speaker 1: what promises to be a historic election and what might 5 00:00:34,836 --> 00:00:40,716 Speaker 1: become a historically chaotic election. Before Donald Trump tested positive 6 00:00:40,756 --> 00:00:44,476 Speaker 1: for the stars Cove two virus, he refused in a 7 00:00:44,516 --> 00:00:48,116 Speaker 1: presidential debate to commit to a peaceful transfer of power 8 00:00:48,476 --> 00:00:52,316 Speaker 1: if he lost. Now his diagnosis has plunged things even 9 00:00:52,396 --> 00:00:57,036 Speaker 1: further into uncertainty. The question that is preoccupying me is 10 00:00:57,036 --> 00:00:59,556 Speaker 1: not just the health of the president, but the health 11 00:00:59,596 --> 00:01:04,036 Speaker 1: of our democracy. How worried should we really be about 12 00:01:04,036 --> 00:01:07,596 Speaker 1: the pressures that are currently being put on our electoral 13 00:01:07,676 --> 00:01:12,916 Speaker 1: system and our pacity to transfer power. To discuss this, 14 00:01:13,076 --> 00:01:15,796 Speaker 1: we are joined by one of the most renowned scholars 15 00:01:15,836 --> 00:01:19,916 Speaker 1: of democracy in the world and someone whose work has deeply, 16 00:01:20,036 --> 00:01:25,596 Speaker 1: deeply influenced my own throughout my career. That's Adam Chavorski. 17 00:01:26,236 --> 00:01:29,596 Speaker 1: He's a professor emeritus at New York University. He was 18 00:01:29,636 --> 00:01:33,556 Speaker 1: the twenty ten recipient of the Skyte Prize, which has 19 00:01:33,556 --> 00:01:39,716 Speaker 1: been nicknamed the Nobel Prize for political scientists. Adam, thank 20 00:01:39,756 --> 00:01:42,276 Speaker 1: you so much. For being here. When I was watching 21 00:01:42,276 --> 00:01:46,916 Speaker 1: the presidential debate and I saw Donald Trump refusing to 22 00:01:46,996 --> 00:01:51,956 Speaker 1: acknowledge that he would peacefully transfer power, I thought to myself, 23 00:01:52,196 --> 00:01:55,196 Speaker 1: there's only one person I can have on the podcast 24 00:01:55,356 --> 00:01:59,556 Speaker 1: to talk about transitions of power, and that is Adam Chavorski. 25 00:02:00,276 --> 00:02:02,796 Speaker 1: And I want to start with the most fundamental question 26 00:02:02,876 --> 00:02:09,036 Speaker 1: of all, which is transitions into democracy. What makes them 27 00:02:09,236 --> 00:02:11,556 Speaker 1: work when they do work, so that we can then 28 00:02:11,636 --> 00:02:15,196 Speaker 1: explore what makes them not work when they don't work. Well, 29 00:02:15,236 --> 00:02:18,076 Speaker 1: I really appreciate the introduction. I have been at this 30 00:02:18,316 --> 00:02:23,476 Speaker 1: for probably forty years, so yes, I've thought about it 31 00:02:23,796 --> 00:02:28,236 Speaker 1: different ways. I recently published a book on Why Bothered 32 00:02:28,316 --> 00:02:31,916 Speaker 1: with Elections, and what really struck me is how a 33 00:02:32,076 --> 00:02:37,396 Speaker 1: routine elections are for us? Yes, I mean what happens 34 00:02:37,396 --> 00:02:43,196 Speaker 1: in elections. People vote, somebody is declared winner according to 35 00:02:43,316 --> 00:02:48,596 Speaker 1: the rules. The winner moves into some palace, the White House, 36 00:02:48,916 --> 00:02:53,276 Speaker 1: the pink House in Argentina, the blue House in South Korea. 37 00:02:53,436 --> 00:02:57,956 Speaker 1: The loser goes toward bridge called back benches. Were governed 38 00:02:57,956 --> 00:03:01,676 Speaker 1: for a few years, and then the rituals repeated again, 39 00:03:02,316 --> 00:03:07,316 Speaker 1: and we just completely take it as routine. It's not 40 00:03:07,396 --> 00:03:10,236 Speaker 1: quite routine. Because there are sixty countries in the world 41 00:03:10,236 --> 00:03:15,516 Speaker 1: as of today which never experience peaceful transfer of power 42 00:03:15,636 --> 00:03:20,876 Speaker 1: through elections, including China and Russia. So why does it work. 43 00:03:21,436 --> 00:03:26,036 Speaker 1: It works because typically not too much is at stake, 44 00:03:26,836 --> 00:03:32,476 Speaker 1: in the sense that whoever loses elections will suffer from 45 00:03:32,676 --> 00:03:39,876 Speaker 1: policies that supporters of the losers don't like, but not 46 00:03:39,956 --> 00:03:43,956 Speaker 1: too much, and we'll have a chance to win again. 47 00:03:44,596 --> 00:03:48,476 Speaker 1: Just thinking about the US Bush following Clinton Bush versus 48 00:03:48,556 --> 00:03:54,036 Speaker 1: Gore election that hung on the hair the Supreme Court decided, 49 00:03:54,116 --> 00:03:56,836 Speaker 1: even as though it wasn't clear that it was the 50 00:03:56,916 --> 00:04:01,516 Speaker 1: court that was supposed to decide, and basically what the 51 00:04:01,556 --> 00:04:06,596 Speaker 1: Democratic Party and what the Gore decided decided, it's just 52 00:04:06,676 --> 00:04:11,116 Speaker 1: too costly to fight. We got to suffer from Bush policies, 53 00:04:12,156 --> 00:04:15,036 Speaker 1: but we're gonna have a chance to win again. And 54 00:04:15,156 --> 00:04:18,676 Speaker 1: then Obama one and we probably thought, what we're going 55 00:04:18,756 --> 00:04:23,156 Speaker 1: to suffer through four years maybe eight years, and then 56 00:04:23,196 --> 00:04:26,996 Speaker 1: we're going to win again, And what happened. Trump won. Yes. 57 00:04:27,596 --> 00:04:31,796 Speaker 1: So I think that what makes it work specifically are 58 00:04:31,836 --> 00:04:36,876 Speaker 1: two conditions. One that the winner does not hurt the 59 00:04:36,996 --> 00:04:40,276 Speaker 1: loser too much. That is that the stakes in the 60 00:04:40,396 --> 00:04:44,516 Speaker 1: election are not too high, and two that the loser 61 00:04:45,076 --> 00:04:49,316 Speaker 1: is not denied the chance to win again. As long 62 00:04:49,356 --> 00:04:54,196 Speaker 1: as these two conditions hold, elections work. These two conditions, though, 63 00:04:54,676 --> 00:04:57,396 Speaker 1: aren't naturally occurring, as you point out. I mean, that's 64 00:04:57,436 --> 00:04:59,676 Speaker 1: one reason why you have sixty eight countries that haven't 65 00:04:59,676 --> 00:05:05,916 Speaker 1: had a peaceful transfer. They're each the product of certain customs, practices, 66 00:05:05,956 --> 00:05:10,316 Speaker 1: and norms that maybe derived from the self interest of 67 00:05:10,356 --> 00:05:14,476 Speaker 1: both parties in some way, but nevertheless have been routinized. 68 00:05:14,516 --> 00:05:16,836 Speaker 1: So when you say an election is routine, it feels 69 00:05:16,916 --> 00:05:20,556 Speaker 1: routine because we have some custom that makes it a routine. 70 00:05:21,156 --> 00:05:26,316 Speaker 1: So what happens when one side starts to believe that 71 00:05:26,596 --> 00:05:29,396 Speaker 1: it might be able to play around the edges of 72 00:05:29,396 --> 00:05:33,636 Speaker 1: that routine and maybe change things around, and the other 73 00:05:33,676 --> 00:05:36,596 Speaker 1: side starts to think, well, maybe the other side isn't 74 00:05:36,596 --> 00:05:39,156 Speaker 1: going to follow the routine, maybe they'll do things differently. 75 00:05:39,156 --> 00:05:40,956 Speaker 1: I mean, for me, the first moment when I saw 76 00:05:40,996 --> 00:05:43,556 Speaker 1: a real breaking of this was in the twenty sixteen election, 77 00:05:44,076 --> 00:05:47,756 Speaker 1: when Trump was leading supporters in the lock her up formulation. 78 00:05:48,116 --> 00:05:50,516 Speaker 1: You said, the first condition is the loser doesn't suffer 79 00:05:50,596 --> 00:05:53,716 Speaker 1: that much, but the threat he didn't actually do it, 80 00:05:53,756 --> 00:05:56,236 Speaker 1: but the threat of locking up your opponent is a 81 00:05:56,316 --> 00:05:58,956 Speaker 1: break from the routine of saying the opponent won't suffer 82 00:05:59,036 --> 00:06:01,916 Speaker 1: that much. And similarly, the idea of being able to 83 00:06:01,996 --> 00:06:04,956 Speaker 1: run again works well if you have a chance of winning, 84 00:06:05,076 --> 00:06:08,116 Speaker 1: but if the winner tries to institutionalize its power, it 85 00:06:08,196 --> 00:06:10,156 Speaker 1: can make it harder for the other side to win 86 00:06:10,876 --> 00:06:13,796 Speaker 1: the next time. So how do we sustain these customs 87 00:06:13,836 --> 00:06:17,356 Speaker 1: to make it routine? Well, all I can tell you 88 00:06:17,596 --> 00:06:22,676 Speaker 1: is that I know that the mechan doesn't works under 89 00:06:22,716 --> 00:06:28,636 Speaker 1: the conditions which I just specified, and I'm utterly, utterly surprised, 90 00:06:28,956 --> 00:06:32,756 Speaker 1: as much as anybody else, in spite of forty years 91 00:06:32,756 --> 00:06:35,996 Speaker 1: of work on this topic, that that would break down. 92 00:06:36,396 --> 00:06:38,316 Speaker 1: Let me just say what I heard, lock her up. 93 00:06:39,116 --> 00:06:43,116 Speaker 1: I found it ominous, But not just this. You know, 94 00:06:43,236 --> 00:06:47,476 Speaker 1: the first time Trump said that the only possible way 95 00:06:47,596 --> 00:06:51,596 Speaker 1: he could lose would be because election would be fraudulent 96 00:06:52,236 --> 00:06:55,516 Speaker 1: was three years ago. It wasn't just now. I remember 97 00:06:55,636 --> 00:07:00,956 Speaker 1: that exactly was my experience with this phenomena. It just 98 00:07:00,996 --> 00:07:05,836 Speaker 1: started smelling very badly to me already at that moment. 99 00:07:06,916 --> 00:07:10,196 Speaker 1: What I know is this, you have correct that it 100 00:07:10,276 --> 00:07:15,756 Speaker 1: becomes a habit, and that interests are codified as norms. 101 00:07:16,356 --> 00:07:20,996 Speaker 1: So one study I did was I looked what is 102 00:07:21,036 --> 00:07:26,236 Speaker 1: the probability that the elections will break down as a 103 00:07:26,316 --> 00:07:31,476 Speaker 1: function of past alternations in office between parties in the 104 00:07:31,596 --> 00:07:34,996 Speaker 1: history of a particular country. And it turns out that 105 00:07:35,316 --> 00:07:39,556 Speaker 1: once a country has four or five alternations, the probably 106 00:07:39,716 --> 00:07:44,236 Speaker 1: that the mechanism will stop working is almost zero. United 107 00:07:44,276 --> 00:07:48,996 Speaker 1: States had twenty two or twenty three alternations. I calculated 108 00:07:49,076 --> 00:07:52,916 Speaker 1: that probability for the United States. It turns out to 109 00:07:52,956 --> 00:07:57,836 Speaker 1: be one in one point eight million. That is how 110 00:07:57,996 --> 00:08:03,116 Speaker 1: unprecedented that event is. So how much do you believe 111 00:08:03,236 --> 00:08:05,796 Speaker 1: your study? I mean, the good news would be and 112 00:08:05,836 --> 00:08:09,556 Speaker 1: then our listeners could feel very happy that all that 113 00:08:09,996 --> 00:08:13,596 Speaker 1: President Trump is talking in ways that break our norms 114 00:08:13,636 --> 00:08:17,796 Speaker 1: about how we should speak. He hasn't actually done that yet. 115 00:08:17,836 --> 00:08:20,916 Speaker 1: He did not lock up Hillary Clinton, he has not 116 00:08:20,996 --> 00:08:24,756 Speaker 1: yet refused to leave office after a transition. And so 117 00:08:25,276 --> 00:08:28,236 Speaker 1: there's an argument that says this is all talk. And 118 00:08:28,276 --> 00:08:30,796 Speaker 1: then we would hear you tell us that you know 119 00:08:30,836 --> 00:08:33,156 Speaker 1: the odds are one and one point eight million based 120 00:08:33,156 --> 00:08:36,276 Speaker 1: on this analysis that Trump would break the rules, and 121 00:08:36,316 --> 00:08:38,716 Speaker 1: then we can sleep a little better at night. Or 122 00:08:38,756 --> 00:08:42,076 Speaker 1: do you think, well, it's just a probability and of course, 123 00:08:42,436 --> 00:08:45,516 Speaker 1: unlikely things sometimes happen. What is your instinct in reaction 124 00:08:45,556 --> 00:08:48,916 Speaker 1: to that, to your own study. My instinctive reaction is 125 00:08:48,956 --> 00:08:57,316 Speaker 1: that I am in a deep intellectual crisis, and perhaps 126 00:08:57,436 --> 00:09:04,196 Speaker 1: my entire discipline should be. The way we study things 127 00:09:04,476 --> 00:09:08,836 Speaker 1: is basically, we observe past patterns and we tried to 128 00:09:09,236 --> 00:09:13,916 Speaker 1: row lessons from history. That's what most of our work 129 00:09:13,996 --> 00:09:17,596 Speaker 1: and political science and to a large extent, economics is. 130 00:09:18,796 --> 00:09:23,196 Speaker 1: And the lessons of studying the past is exactly where 131 00:09:23,276 --> 00:09:27,076 Speaker 1: just Storgy it's one in one point eight million. So 132 00:09:27,156 --> 00:09:32,716 Speaker 1: suddenly there's a feeling of learning lessons from history is 133 00:09:33,236 --> 00:09:39,116 Speaker 1: much less certain of an endeavor that we believe it 134 00:09:39,156 --> 00:09:47,356 Speaker 1: may end up peacefully institutionally without a major collapse. But 135 00:09:47,476 --> 00:09:51,476 Speaker 1: in some sense it has already happened. The fact that 136 00:09:51,556 --> 00:09:56,836 Speaker 1: we are discussing the role of the armed forces in 137 00:09:56,876 --> 00:10:02,436 Speaker 1: a constitutional crisis, the fact that we are discussing wondering 138 00:10:02,476 --> 00:10:06,796 Speaker 1: about political postures of the police, the fact that we're 139 00:10:06,796 --> 00:10:10,916 Speaker 1: wondering about potential be behavior of the actions of the 140 00:10:10,996 --> 00:10:16,196 Speaker 1: Secret Service, the fact that relations of physical force have 141 00:10:16,476 --> 00:10:20,716 Speaker 1: come to be a subject of public discourse. For me, 142 00:10:21,156 --> 00:10:25,996 Speaker 1: this means that has already happened. That the unprecedented, unexpected, 143 00:10:26,116 --> 00:10:32,396 Speaker 1: unimaginable has already happened. I wasn't Jill in August of 144 00:10:32,556 --> 00:10:37,516 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three, a month before an extraordinary bloody good 145 00:10:37,556 --> 00:10:41,236 Speaker 1: at time. And I remember at that time people were 146 00:10:41,356 --> 00:10:48,236 Speaker 1: counting how many generals are adhering to a constitutional position 147 00:10:48,316 --> 00:10:51,076 Speaker 1: that the president cannot be removed was sort of a 148 00:10:51,156 --> 00:10:55,556 Speaker 1: daily count. And this sounds similar. Let me try to 149 00:10:55,676 --> 00:10:59,476 Speaker 1: use Sworsky against Sworsky, now, okay, So let me try 150 00:10:59,476 --> 00:11:03,316 Speaker 1: to offer a more sanguine picture, and it would be 151 00:11:03,356 --> 00:11:09,116 Speaker 1: based on a distinction between unwritten norms that one person 152 00:11:09,396 --> 00:11:14,316 Speaker 1: can challenge and written norms that many institutions would have 153 00:11:14,316 --> 00:11:18,316 Speaker 1: to participate in challenging. And so the counterargument, again based 154 00:11:18,356 --> 00:11:22,636 Speaker 1: on your premises, would be like this, Sure, Donald Trump 155 00:11:22,836 --> 00:11:25,596 Speaker 1: on his own can say things that have never been 156 00:11:25,636 --> 00:11:29,076 Speaker 1: said before, like I might not leave office, never been 157 00:11:29,076 --> 00:11:31,516 Speaker 1: said in the United States, and then that drives the 158 00:11:31,556 --> 00:11:33,636 Speaker 1: discourse in just the ways that you were describing, And 159 00:11:33,636 --> 00:11:35,476 Speaker 1: then we have to have this discourse that was before 160 00:11:35,556 --> 00:11:39,836 Speaker 1: unimaginable and that on the surface sounds like Chile in 161 00:11:39,916 --> 00:11:44,396 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three. But the counter argument would be for 162 00:11:44,476 --> 00:11:48,316 Speaker 1: Trump actually to take these steps. He couldn't act alone. 163 00:11:48,756 --> 00:11:50,756 Speaker 1: I mean, if the election clearly went to Biden, and 164 00:11:50,796 --> 00:11:54,756 Speaker 1: Biden were sworn in with Trump refusing to participate, the 165 00:11:54,836 --> 00:11:58,276 Speaker 1: Secret Service would then escort Donald Trump out of the 166 00:11:58,316 --> 00:12:02,716 Speaker 1: White House. If Congress got involved and tried to change 167 00:12:02,716 --> 00:12:04,716 Speaker 1: the electoral outcome, then that would be an institution. It 168 00:12:04,716 --> 00:12:07,356 Speaker 1: would take hundreds and hundreds of people. If the Supreme 169 00:12:07,396 --> 00:12:09,836 Speaker 1: Court got involved, that would take at least a majority 170 00:12:09,876 --> 00:12:13,356 Speaker 1: of the nine people. And so the argument then would 171 00:12:13,356 --> 00:12:16,716 Speaker 1: be that the fact that the discourse has changed is 172 00:12:16,716 --> 00:12:20,076 Speaker 1: a product of one man, whereas a change in our 173 00:12:20,116 --> 00:12:24,796 Speaker 1: institutions would take many, many people. So this is an 174 00:12:24,836 --> 00:12:29,076 Speaker 1: attempt to tell a different story again based on your premises. Well, 175 00:12:29,636 --> 00:12:33,836 Speaker 1: here's there were Stu. The situation. I study what I 176 00:12:33,876 --> 00:12:38,556 Speaker 1: think is the best model predicting the distribution of electoral 177 00:12:38,636 --> 00:12:40,916 Speaker 1: vote as a result of election, which is the five 178 00:12:41,076 --> 00:12:44,796 Speaker 1: thirty eight model. So, according to that model, as of today, 179 00:12:44,836 --> 00:12:48,836 Speaker 1: more or less, Trump has one chance in five to win, 180 00:12:49,916 --> 00:12:54,316 Speaker 1: Biden has probably about one chance in two about fifty 181 00:12:55,756 --> 00:12:59,516 Speaker 1: to win by a landslide. If Trump wins, Hu wins, 182 00:13:00,236 --> 00:13:04,276 Speaker 1: if Biden wins by a landslide, I think there's every 183 00:13:04,276 --> 00:13:08,876 Speaker 1: reason to think that all the other potential institutional actors 184 00:13:09,636 --> 00:13:15,596 Speaker 1: will force Trump to comply with the result. So there is, 185 00:13:15,636 --> 00:13:19,876 Speaker 1: as I see it, about thirty percent that Biden will 186 00:13:19,916 --> 00:13:24,396 Speaker 1: win a little by a small margin, and then this 187 00:13:24,556 --> 00:13:28,156 Speaker 1: country turns out to be weird. I never studied the 188 00:13:28,276 --> 00:13:32,316 Speaker 1: US much, and I'm not a constitutional lawyer like yours. 189 00:13:33,236 --> 00:13:36,036 Speaker 1: You should be thinking about it, not me. But the 190 00:13:36,196 --> 00:13:42,196 Speaker 1: rules defineing who is the victor extraordinary uncleared. This is 191 00:13:42,236 --> 00:13:46,036 Speaker 1: the only country in the world which doesn't have clearer 192 00:13:46,276 --> 00:13:51,516 Speaker 1: rules about what determines the winner. I think that in 193 00:13:51,556 --> 00:13:56,436 Speaker 1: that thirty percent area in which Biden would win by 194 00:13:56,476 --> 00:14:00,156 Speaker 1: a little, it's going to be a complete mess. The 195 00:14:00,196 --> 00:14:02,676 Speaker 1: analogy that I like to use in thinking about this 196 00:14:02,796 --> 00:14:05,796 Speaker 1: is that the US constitutional system and then the statutes 197 00:14:05,876 --> 00:14:09,356 Speaker 1: that govern what happens in an election are like a 198 00:14:09,436 --> 00:14:12,996 Speaker 1: bridge built in seventeen eighty seven when there were only 199 00:14:13,356 --> 00:14:18,316 Speaker 1: horse drawn carriages to cross it, and then over time, 200 00:14:18,836 --> 00:14:22,076 Speaker 1: as people said, well now we have some cars, there 201 00:14:22,116 --> 00:14:24,476 Speaker 1: was an effort to reinforce it. You know, some metal 202 00:14:24,596 --> 00:14:28,156 Speaker 1: was tacked on the bottom, and we said, well it's okay, 203 00:14:28,196 --> 00:14:30,196 Speaker 1: because we just haven't had a problem with it. It's 204 00:14:30,236 --> 00:14:34,076 Speaker 1: shaken a few times. In eighteen seventy six it almost 205 00:14:34,076 --> 00:14:37,516 Speaker 1: collapsed and then they made a temporary solution to it. 206 00:14:37,836 --> 00:14:40,916 Speaker 1: Then again in two thousand in the Bush Vigor election, 207 00:14:40,996 --> 00:14:43,516 Speaker 1: it almost collapsed, and that time we had Dao sex Machi. 208 00:14:43,596 --> 00:14:45,556 Speaker 1: Now we had the Supreme Court come in, which is 209 00:14:45,556 --> 00:14:48,516 Speaker 1: not anywhere in the design, and the Supreme Court said, well, 210 00:14:48,556 --> 00:14:50,716 Speaker 1: we've solved it. And at first that looked illegitimate, but 211 00:14:50,716 --> 00:14:53,516 Speaker 1: within a few weeks everyone said, well, at least somebody 212 00:14:53,556 --> 00:14:56,516 Speaker 1: resolved it. At least the bridge is still functioning. And 213 00:14:56,676 --> 00:14:59,636 Speaker 1: the dangerous part, of course, is if the tank were 214 00:14:59,676 --> 00:15:02,836 Speaker 1: to go across that bridge, the bridge might just literally 215 00:15:02,876 --> 00:15:04,956 Speaker 1: not be able to support it anymore. So there is 216 00:15:04,996 --> 00:15:10,236 Speaker 1: a problem with having very old institutions at work, not 217 00:15:10,316 --> 00:15:13,956 Speaker 1: by an explicit rule, not because a proper engineer has 218 00:15:13,956 --> 00:15:17,516 Speaker 1: designed the bridge to work, but because it's always worked 219 00:15:17,636 --> 00:15:19,756 Speaker 1: and there's an expectation of it working. So I agree 220 00:15:19,756 --> 00:15:23,196 Speaker 1: that that's a tremendous vulnerability, but it's also a sign of, 221 00:15:23,276 --> 00:15:25,996 Speaker 1: in a sense, the success of the system. Right. One 222 00:15:25,996 --> 00:15:29,756 Speaker 1: of the reasons that most global systems of elections or 223 00:15:29,796 --> 00:15:33,116 Speaker 1: even global constitutions are newer is that they have broken 224 00:15:33,156 --> 00:15:37,356 Speaker 1: down more recently and been replaced. The US Constitution broke 225 00:15:37,436 --> 00:15:41,356 Speaker 1: once disastrously in the Civil War, but for you know, 226 00:15:41,436 --> 00:15:44,596 Speaker 1: around one hundred and sixty years, it's been more or 227 00:15:44,676 --> 00:15:47,156 Speaker 1: less functional. But that's no guarantee that it will continue 228 00:15:47,156 --> 00:15:52,356 Speaker 1: to function. Yes, this is what made it unimaginable. Precisely 229 00:15:52,436 --> 00:15:55,276 Speaker 1: it worked. The system worked, I agree with you, And 230 00:15:55,356 --> 00:15:57,996 Speaker 1: to what extent it's interest to all extens rules, to 231 00:15:58,116 --> 00:16:01,236 Speaker 1: all extend its norms, to what extent has just habit. 232 00:16:02,036 --> 00:16:06,236 Speaker 1: We just could never imagine that it will break down. 233 00:16:06,996 --> 00:16:10,596 Speaker 1: And it turns out the one to cons possibly broke down. 234 00:16:11,156 --> 00:16:14,636 Speaker 1: Then the institutional assistance. I'm sorry to say, the constitution, 235 00:16:15,276 --> 00:16:28,756 Speaker 1: it's just useless. We'll be back in a moment. One 236 00:16:28,836 --> 00:16:32,356 Speaker 1: of the central themes that I learned from the work 237 00:16:32,436 --> 00:16:35,076 Speaker 1: you were doing in the early nineties in the immediate 238 00:16:35,116 --> 00:16:40,156 Speaker 1: aftermath of the Eastern European transitions was that one way 239 00:16:40,196 --> 00:16:44,716 Speaker 1: to look at democracies that work that alternate power, is 240 00:16:44,716 --> 00:16:48,956 Speaker 1: that there are powerful people on both sides who know 241 00:16:49,236 --> 00:16:51,916 Speaker 1: that they have a lot to gain from the system 242 00:16:51,996 --> 00:16:54,516 Speaker 1: working and who know that they have a lot to 243 00:16:54,596 --> 00:16:57,756 Speaker 1: lose from the system failing. And in one of the 244 00:16:57,796 --> 00:17:00,596 Speaker 1: formulations that you sometimes used in that period of time, 245 00:17:01,316 --> 00:17:05,276 Speaker 1: you suggested that really democracy can be understood almost as 246 00:17:05,316 --> 00:17:08,436 Speaker 1: just a pact or an agreement between these different elites 247 00:17:09,276 --> 00:17:12,476 Speaker 1: that they're going to alternate in power and the elections running. 248 00:17:12,476 --> 00:17:15,116 Speaker 1: At the time, you were suggesting it almost didn't matter 249 00:17:15,156 --> 00:17:17,196 Speaker 1: if we used elections, if we could flip a coin 250 00:17:17,396 --> 00:17:20,276 Speaker 1: and the parties could change power, that might not be 251 00:17:20,316 --> 00:17:23,116 Speaker 1: as good, it wouldn't be as legitimate publicly. But from 252 00:17:23,116 --> 00:17:26,196 Speaker 1: the standpoint of the elites who knew that I'm going 253 00:17:26,236 --> 00:17:28,436 Speaker 1: to have my next chance at power, and that you 254 00:17:28,516 --> 00:17:30,276 Speaker 1: the other side, are not going to put me in prison, 255 00:17:30,316 --> 00:17:32,276 Speaker 1: You're not going to take away my wealth, and you 256 00:17:32,276 --> 00:17:34,476 Speaker 1: will allow me to run and defeat you the next time, 257 00:17:34,996 --> 00:17:38,556 Speaker 1: the alternation was just powerfully in self interest. Now that 258 00:17:38,676 --> 00:17:41,556 Speaker 1: self interest among elites is still very present in the 259 00:17:41,636 --> 00:17:45,636 Speaker 1: United States. If we actually had a constitutional crisis, it 260 00:17:45,636 --> 00:17:48,836 Speaker 1: would be a disaster for the stock market, and tremendous 261 00:17:48,836 --> 00:17:52,156 Speaker 1: amount of wealth would be destroyed. Almost certainly, it would 262 00:17:52,196 --> 00:17:55,116 Speaker 1: be probably okay for the regular economy, but the elites, 263 00:17:55,316 --> 00:17:57,356 Speaker 1: a lot of whose wealth is bound up in the markets, 264 00:17:57,596 --> 00:18:00,996 Speaker 1: would have a great deal to lose. So what about 265 00:18:00,996 --> 00:18:04,516 Speaker 1: the thought that those elites of whom Donald Trump is 266 00:18:04,556 --> 00:18:08,516 Speaker 1: won just can't tolerate the destruction of wealth that would 267 00:18:08,516 --> 00:18:13,156 Speaker 1: be associated by a genuine constitutional crisis, and so they 268 00:18:13,236 --> 00:18:16,276 Speaker 1: will not allow it to happen. Those elites will say 269 00:18:16,636 --> 00:18:19,436 Speaker 1: to other Republicans, and indeed maybe to Donald Trump personally, 270 00:18:20,236 --> 00:18:22,836 Speaker 1: you can't do this. We have too much to lose, 271 00:18:23,356 --> 00:18:26,116 Speaker 1: and we're not going to allow this kind of an outcome, 272 00:18:26,196 --> 00:18:28,956 Speaker 1: because that is I will say, again, under your influence. 273 00:18:29,356 --> 00:18:31,596 Speaker 1: That is often the way I look at this transfer 274 00:18:31,636 --> 00:18:33,156 Speaker 1: of power. But I can see you're shaking your head. 275 00:18:33,796 --> 00:18:37,116 Speaker 1: Shaking my head for the following reason. I believe exactly 276 00:18:37,156 --> 00:18:41,596 Speaker 1: what you said. But why haven't they done it already? 277 00:18:42,156 --> 00:18:48,556 Speaker 1: Why couldn't they have constrained Trump already? Why such a 278 00:18:48,636 --> 00:18:54,956 Speaker 1: large segment of business establishment still supports it? Somehow, I 279 00:18:55,036 --> 00:18:58,396 Speaker 1: have an impression that a large part of business establishment 280 00:18:58,436 --> 00:19:01,676 Speaker 1: in this country is willing to trade lower taxes and 281 00:19:01,796 --> 00:19:07,116 Speaker 1: der regulation for the cost of a violent conflict. And 282 00:19:07,436 --> 00:19:10,076 Speaker 1: I'm amazed by that. Well, that is amazing. If that 283 00:19:10,076 --> 00:19:11,796 Speaker 1: were true, I think that would be really amazing. So 284 00:19:11,876 --> 00:19:15,476 Speaker 1: let me offer a different interpretation of the business elites position. 285 00:19:16,356 --> 00:19:20,116 Speaker 1: It's that they don't believe that Trump is serious about 286 00:19:20,276 --> 00:19:23,196 Speaker 1: not stepping down from office. That's always difficult to interpret 287 00:19:23,236 --> 00:19:26,436 Speaker 1: the stock market perfectly. But the stock market seems not 288 00:19:26,516 --> 00:19:30,476 Speaker 1: to be worried about Trump actually doing that. And if 289 00:19:30,516 --> 00:19:32,876 Speaker 1: you speak to business elite, many will tell you, and 290 00:19:32,876 --> 00:19:35,276 Speaker 1: I've had many people say this to me, doesn't matter 291 00:19:35,316 --> 00:19:37,956 Speaker 1: what Trump says, it matters what Trump does. What he's 292 00:19:37,956 --> 00:19:40,036 Speaker 1: done has been good for us. And then there are 293 00:19:40,036 --> 00:19:43,356 Speaker 1: also some very high ranking Republicans whom I sometimes speak to, 294 00:19:43,676 --> 00:19:46,396 Speaker 1: always confidentially. They don't want to me to tell anybody 295 00:19:46,396 --> 00:19:47,836 Speaker 1: that I'm speaking to them, and maybe I don't want 296 00:19:47,836 --> 00:19:49,796 Speaker 1: to tell people that I'm speaking to them either, but 297 00:19:49,836 --> 00:19:51,676 Speaker 1: they say, look, he's not going to do this, He's 298 00:19:51,676 --> 00:19:54,916 Speaker 1: not insane. This is a form of political rhetoric. Now 299 00:19:54,956 --> 00:19:56,756 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that they're right about that. What I'm 300 00:19:56,756 --> 00:19:59,996 Speaker 1: telling you is the perception. And if that perception we're 301 00:19:59,996 --> 00:20:02,676 Speaker 1: shared by business elites, they would say, look, we want 302 00:20:02,676 --> 00:20:05,676 Speaker 1: Donald Trump to win because we want to continue with 303 00:20:05,716 --> 00:20:08,316 Speaker 1: the low tax rates and the low regulation. So we 304 00:20:08,356 --> 00:20:12,836 Speaker 1: support him, but we don't think that the risk of 305 00:20:13,036 --> 00:20:15,956 Speaker 1: disruption to the system is really all that high. And 306 00:20:16,076 --> 00:20:19,356 Speaker 1: the market agrees with us, and so it's all going 307 00:20:19,436 --> 00:20:23,836 Speaker 1: to be fine. And if liberals and scholars want to 308 00:20:23,836 --> 00:20:26,996 Speaker 1: get all panicky. Let them. You know, we reasonable people 309 00:20:27,036 --> 00:20:29,876 Speaker 1: who do everything in terms of dollars and cents, just 310 00:20:30,036 --> 00:20:33,876 Speaker 1: aren't really that worried about this. I hope you're right. 311 00:20:34,476 --> 00:20:39,316 Speaker 1: I would have expected you to be right. But there 312 00:20:39,316 --> 00:20:41,916 Speaker 1: are two aspect of the situations which were me and 313 00:20:41,956 --> 00:20:46,476 Speaker 1: I don't attach probabilities to them. These are worries, no probabilities. 314 00:20:47,516 --> 00:20:51,836 Speaker 1: One is that to some extent the genie of violence 315 00:20:51,996 --> 00:20:57,316 Speaker 1: may have already been out of the bottle, that militious 316 00:20:57,596 --> 00:21:04,676 Speaker 1: paramilitary groups. Now I wonder to what extent Trump controls 317 00:21:04,716 --> 00:21:08,716 Speaker 1: them or could control them. But more and here, if 318 00:21:08,756 --> 00:21:12,436 Speaker 1: you know, this is pure speculation, and again it touches 319 00:21:12,436 --> 00:21:16,596 Speaker 1: on laws. But I wonder now whether Trump can afford 320 00:21:16,676 --> 00:21:22,556 Speaker 1: to lose given all the disclosures about his financial You know, 321 00:21:23,196 --> 00:21:27,836 Speaker 1: locking up is not impossible anymore, it seems, at least 322 00:21:27,836 --> 00:21:30,756 Speaker 1: from what I read and talk to my lawyer friends, 323 00:21:31,476 --> 00:21:34,356 Speaker 1: it seems that he could be very easily charged with 324 00:21:34,596 --> 00:21:40,876 Speaker 1: committing several offenses. And if that's what's at stake, then 325 00:21:41,356 --> 00:21:44,716 Speaker 1: he will fight to the last ditch. He may be abandoned, 326 00:21:44,956 --> 00:21:48,836 Speaker 1: and hopefully he would be abandoned, but that he can 327 00:21:48,916 --> 00:21:54,476 Speaker 1: be persuaded. I don't know. Well, let's take those in 328 00:21:54,556 --> 00:21:58,556 Speaker 1: reverse order. So in terms of criminal liability, I think 329 00:21:58,596 --> 00:22:04,076 Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to imagine Joe Biden in office allowing 330 00:22:04,236 --> 00:22:07,796 Speaker 1: a criminal prosecution of Donald Trump to proceed at the 331 00:22:07,836 --> 00:22:10,516 Speaker 1: federal level. And I think the reason for that is 332 00:22:10,516 --> 00:22:12,436 Speaker 1: that Joe Biden is, you know, as we keep hearing 333 00:22:12,516 --> 00:22:15,436 Speaker 1: from the president forty seven years in Washington, he's a 334 00:22:15,476 --> 00:22:18,076 Speaker 1: product of the system and he follows the norm. So 335 00:22:18,116 --> 00:22:20,636 Speaker 1: he wouldn't do it. And no president has done that 336 00:22:20,676 --> 00:22:22,716 Speaker 1: in the past, and it's not just of presidents, but 337 00:22:22,756 --> 00:22:26,516 Speaker 1: even of lower down officials. I think Trump doesn't have 338 00:22:26,556 --> 00:22:29,076 Speaker 1: to worry about that. He might have to worry about 339 00:22:29,596 --> 00:22:34,716 Speaker 1: state prosecution in New York State, but so far, there's 340 00:22:34,836 --> 00:22:40,436 Speaker 1: nothing that would politically force the New York State prosecutors 341 00:22:40,876 --> 00:22:44,236 Speaker 1: to go forward. There may be some things where they 342 00:22:44,316 --> 00:22:47,676 Speaker 1: could go forward with respect to what Trump said to 343 00:22:47,756 --> 00:22:51,836 Speaker 1: various banks when he borrowed money, but it's relatively rare 344 00:22:51,876 --> 00:22:54,716 Speaker 1: for those things to be prosecuted criminally. Formally, they can be, 345 00:22:54,836 --> 00:22:58,476 Speaker 1: but the prosecutors have enormous discretion and it would be 346 00:22:58,516 --> 00:23:02,276 Speaker 1: so controversial for the prosecutor to do so. That, although 347 00:23:02,316 --> 00:23:05,516 Speaker 1: it's possible, again, it's possible to imagine. I think Trump's 348 00:23:05,596 --> 00:23:10,476 Speaker 1: vulnerability to criminal prosecution is actually very low on leaving office, 349 00:23:10,876 --> 00:23:13,116 Speaker 1: so of course it's conceivable. But I think it's a 350 00:23:13,156 --> 00:23:16,436 Speaker 1: mistake to confuse the formal fact that he has done 351 00:23:16,476 --> 00:23:19,556 Speaker 1: things that could get him prosecuted with a credible fear 352 00:23:19,596 --> 00:23:22,316 Speaker 1: of prosecution. I don't think Trump really fears prosecution. You've 353 00:23:22,356 --> 00:23:25,876 Speaker 1: just made me feel better. With respect to the militias 354 00:23:25,996 --> 00:23:29,596 Speaker 1: and the paramilitary groups, that's a trickier and more complicated question. 355 00:23:29,756 --> 00:23:32,236 Speaker 1: The first thing that has to be acknowledged is these 356 00:23:32,236 --> 00:23:35,396 Speaker 1: groups exist, and this is the United States. So they 357 00:23:35,436 --> 00:23:39,716 Speaker 1: have guns, and not just handguns, but assault style weapons, 358 00:23:39,716 --> 00:23:42,036 Speaker 1: and you can see them on television. So their existence 359 00:23:42,396 --> 00:23:45,996 Speaker 1: is serious and can't be ignored. We had a professor 360 00:23:46,156 --> 00:23:48,876 Speaker 1: from the Unity of Chicago on this podcast one of 361 00:23:48,876 --> 00:23:50,756 Speaker 1: our first episodes we did. She's an expert on white 362 00:23:50,756 --> 00:23:55,036 Speaker 1: supremacist groups and she's written a very compelling book tracing 363 00:23:55,036 --> 00:23:57,116 Speaker 1: the history of the white supremacist movement in the United 364 00:23:57,156 --> 00:24:00,476 Speaker 1: States back actually to the post Vietnam era, and she 365 00:24:00,556 --> 00:24:03,396 Speaker 1: makes a very strong case that it's coordinated, that it's organized, 366 00:24:03,636 --> 00:24:06,556 Speaker 1: that it has objectives, and she sees the Proud Boys 367 00:24:06,596 --> 00:24:09,116 Speaker 1: whom Trump referred to the other day in the debate, 368 00:24:09,116 --> 00:24:11,596 Speaker 1: as you just wrote an not bed. This professor just 369 00:24:11,596 --> 00:24:12,876 Speaker 1: wrote an not bed in the New York Times saying 370 00:24:12,876 --> 00:24:14,796 Speaker 1: their Proud Boys are squarely a part of that movement. 371 00:24:14,796 --> 00:24:16,676 Speaker 1: So it's real, and I want to acknowledge that it's real. 372 00:24:17,796 --> 00:24:20,516 Speaker 1: That said, it's not very organized internally. These are not 373 00:24:20,596 --> 00:24:23,796 Speaker 1: very well organized militias. And although they no doubt feel 374 00:24:23,876 --> 00:24:28,276 Speaker 1: allegiance to Trump, he doesn't control them in the sense 375 00:24:28,356 --> 00:24:33,236 Speaker 1: in which a dictator in an authoritarian state might control 376 00:24:33,356 --> 00:24:37,076 Speaker 1: paramilitary groups. They don't have senior group of leaders who 377 00:24:37,116 --> 00:24:40,356 Speaker 1: answer to them, there's no financial source of funding. It's 378 00:24:40,356 --> 00:24:44,396 Speaker 1: an ideological kind of loose affiliation. And it's also not 379 00:24:44,436 --> 00:24:46,556 Speaker 1: clear that their numbers are very great. And there's debate 380 00:24:46,556 --> 00:24:48,036 Speaker 1: about this, but it's not clear that the numbers are 381 00:24:48,116 --> 00:24:50,156 Speaker 1: very great. There are enough people to do damage because 382 00:24:50,156 --> 00:24:52,316 Speaker 1: they have weapons, and I don't want to minimize this, 383 00:24:52,356 --> 00:24:54,396 Speaker 1: and I don't want to minimize the handful of deaths 384 00:24:54,436 --> 00:24:56,796 Speaker 1: that they have caused, nor do I want to minimize 385 00:24:56,836 --> 00:24:58,516 Speaker 1: the risk that they pose. They do pose a great 386 00:24:58,596 --> 00:25:01,196 Speaker 1: risk to our sense of social order, but I guess 387 00:25:01,196 --> 00:25:03,516 Speaker 1: I don't see them as rising to the level of 388 00:25:03,516 --> 00:25:06,316 Speaker 1: the kinds of organizations they could make any kind of 389 00:25:06,316 --> 00:25:10,236 Speaker 1: a credible attempt to take control of insta atitutions or 390 00:25:10,276 --> 00:25:13,636 Speaker 1: to take control of streets in that sort of way, 391 00:25:14,076 --> 00:25:16,716 Speaker 1: And I think we're still very, very far from them 392 00:25:16,836 --> 00:25:24,036 Speaker 1: having that kind of capacity. Again, you made me feel better. 393 00:25:24,076 --> 00:25:30,116 Speaker 1: I suppose there's a saying in Polish that a pessimist 394 00:25:30,276 --> 00:25:38,356 Speaker 1: is but an informed optimist. Perhaps I tend to error 395 00:25:38,396 --> 00:25:43,596 Speaker 1: in this direction, perhaps just because I'm just overwhelmed by 396 00:25:43,596 --> 00:25:50,876 Speaker 1: the unprecedented character of our discussion. But if I may 397 00:25:50,996 --> 00:25:56,236 Speaker 1: diverge from the narrow issue of democracy, transfer of power, etc. 398 00:25:57,316 --> 00:26:01,076 Speaker 1: This whole situation is deeper. This is not just a 399 00:26:01,156 --> 00:26:05,596 Speaker 1: matter of elections. It's not just a matter of political strategies. 400 00:26:06,276 --> 00:26:12,276 Speaker 1: It has deep roots into society. We are polarized, not 401 00:26:12,396 --> 00:26:15,796 Speaker 1: just in the sense that different people want different things. 402 00:26:16,716 --> 00:26:20,396 Speaker 1: We are polarized in the sense that people are willing 403 00:26:20,556 --> 00:26:25,196 Speaker 1: to do nasty things to others with whom they disagree. 404 00:26:26,196 --> 00:26:28,956 Speaker 1: That's what I find new, the fact that some people 405 00:26:28,996 --> 00:26:32,516 Speaker 1: are pro abortion and others against abortion. That some people 406 00:26:32,556 --> 00:26:35,996 Speaker 1: have higher taxes, lower taxes. We've always lived with it, 407 00:26:36,076 --> 00:26:39,356 Speaker 1: and if they diverge, they diverge. That doesn't bother me. 408 00:26:39,756 --> 00:26:44,476 Speaker 1: What bothers me is how deep the roots are. In 409 00:26:44,516 --> 00:26:47,876 Speaker 1: the nineteen sixties, about four percent or five percent of 410 00:26:48,916 --> 00:26:53,156 Speaker 1: partisans would have objected if the offspring married an offspringing 411 00:26:53,196 --> 00:26:55,796 Speaker 1: of an opposite party, and now it's in the fifty 412 00:26:55,876 --> 00:27:01,196 Speaker 1: sixty percent range. There's a beautiful study in proceedings of 413 00:27:01,356 --> 00:27:05,596 Speaker 1: National Academy of Science of Thanksgiving a year ago in 414 00:27:05,756 --> 00:27:10,756 Speaker 1: which if at the Thanksgiving dinner is de traditional American 415 00:27:10,876 --> 00:27:15,756 Speaker 1: family holiday, there were people who came from congressional districts 416 00:27:15,876 --> 00:27:20,396 Speaker 1: controlled by different parties. The Thanksgiving dinner lasted thirty minutes 417 00:27:20,516 --> 00:27:25,916 Speaker 1: less because they couldn't talk politics. Yes, one question that 418 00:27:25,996 --> 00:27:28,916 Speaker 1: we should not lose. From perspective, this is why I 419 00:27:29,036 --> 00:27:33,276 Speaker 1: raised this is so the election is over, Biden assumes, 420 00:27:33,596 --> 00:27:37,276 Speaker 1: and then we're going to change in the society. This 421 00:27:37,556 --> 00:27:43,876 Speaker 1: is I think this current situation undermines too many deeply 422 00:27:43,956 --> 00:27:48,676 Speaker 1: held beliefs, including mind well. It will be fascinating to 423 00:27:48,716 --> 00:27:52,796 Speaker 1: discover in the next few months whether those beliefs and 424 00:27:53,036 --> 00:27:56,956 Speaker 1: mine which are formed by learning from yours may actually 425 00:27:57,036 --> 00:28:00,196 Speaker 1: have been correct, and which ones are being challenged in 426 00:28:00,236 --> 00:28:03,276 Speaker 1: ways that creates the kind of intellectual crisis that you're describing. 427 00:28:03,476 --> 00:28:06,716 Speaker 1: Let's hope that our crisis remains only an intellectual crisis 428 00:28:06,876 --> 00:28:10,396 Speaker 1: and doesn't become a constitutional crisis. That you're right, Noah, 429 00:28:10,716 --> 00:28:15,916 Speaker 1: and that my fears aren't founded. I really do. You've 430 00:28:15,916 --> 00:28:19,556 Speaker 1: made me feel somewhat optimistic. Thank you very much for 431 00:28:19,596 --> 00:28:28,276 Speaker 1: a wonderful, thoughtful conversation. Thank you, Adam, Thank you. I 432 00:28:28,396 --> 00:28:33,796 Speaker 1: was extremely excited and fascinated to speak to Professor Adam Trevorski. 433 00:28:34,236 --> 00:28:36,956 Speaker 1: It's rare that you get a chance to interview someone 434 00:28:37,156 --> 00:28:41,156 Speaker 1: who's influenced your own thinking so much. And it was 435 00:28:41,196 --> 00:28:45,396 Speaker 1: also a little scary because what optimism I have tried 436 00:28:45,436 --> 00:28:48,716 Speaker 1: to sustain and maintain about the capacity of the United 437 00:28:48,756 --> 00:28:53,396 Speaker 1: States to transfer power in this coming election peacefully is 438 00:28:53,436 --> 00:28:57,196 Speaker 1: derived I would say ninety five percent from my reading 439 00:28:57,276 --> 00:29:00,156 Speaker 1: of his work over the years, and so it was 440 00:29:00,196 --> 00:29:04,636 Speaker 1: a little dispiriting and disconcerting to put his arguments to 441 00:29:04,836 --> 00:29:09,716 Speaker 1: him and hear that he himself is skeptical. Was very 442 00:29:09,796 --> 00:29:12,276 Speaker 1: struck that he said that for him, this was a 443 00:29:12,316 --> 00:29:17,116 Speaker 1: moment where political science was facing a deep intellectual crisis. 444 00:29:17,676 --> 00:29:19,916 Speaker 1: That's a very open minded thing of him to say 445 00:29:20,276 --> 00:29:25,516 Speaker 1: but it's also pretty disturbing because that crisis might prefigure 446 00:29:25,836 --> 00:29:29,356 Speaker 1: a deeper crisis for the country and indeed for the world, 447 00:29:29,596 --> 00:29:33,396 Speaker 1: if our democratic institutions break down in the coming election. 448 00:29:34,396 --> 00:29:36,836 Speaker 1: Over the course of the conversation, what you heard me 449 00:29:36,956 --> 00:29:41,716 Speaker 1: doing was trying to reassure myself by using Professor Savorski's 450 00:29:41,796 --> 00:29:43,476 Speaker 1: arguments to see if I could get him to back 451 00:29:43,556 --> 00:29:46,996 Speaker 1: down from the degree of uncertainty and concern that he feels. 452 00:29:47,276 --> 00:29:49,876 Speaker 1: And I would say I was pretty unsuccessful in that regard. 453 00:29:50,396 --> 00:29:52,636 Speaker 1: I think Adam has a strong sense that the fact 454 00:29:52,676 --> 00:29:56,276 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump began to speak about potentially not leaving 455 00:29:56,356 --> 00:30:01,436 Speaker 1: office opened up a vein of discussion and discourse about 456 00:30:01,716 --> 00:30:05,356 Speaker 1: transition that just would have been unimaginable to use his 457 00:30:05,436 --> 00:30:08,636 Speaker 1: word in the United States beforehand, up to and including 458 00:30:08,676 --> 00:30:12,276 Speaker 1: asking ourselves what the US military would do if Donald 459 00:30:12,276 --> 00:30:15,396 Speaker 1: Trump disputed the presidency. The only good news I can 460 00:30:15,436 --> 00:30:17,676 Speaker 1: take away from this conversation is that we're going to 461 00:30:17,796 --> 00:30:22,636 Speaker 1: know the answers relatively soon. The election is coming, the 462 00:30:22,716 --> 00:30:26,276 Speaker 1: court fights that may follow that will ensue, and then 463 00:30:26,516 --> 00:30:29,396 Speaker 1: in just a few months we're supposed to inaugurate a 464 00:30:29,436 --> 00:30:33,596 Speaker 1: new president. Whoever that turns out to be. Here's hoping 465 00:30:33,916 --> 00:30:37,476 Speaker 1: it goes as smoothly as it can until the next 466 00:30:37,476 --> 00:30:41,076 Speaker 1: time we speak. Be careful, be safe, and be well. 467 00:30:42,316 --> 00:30:45,116 Speaker 1: Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our 468 00:30:45,156 --> 00:30:48,716 Speaker 1: producer is Lydia Gencott, our engineer is Martin Gonzalez, and 469 00:30:48,796 --> 00:30:52,036 Speaker 1: our showrunner is Sophie Crane mckibbon. Theme music by Luis 470 00:30:52,116 --> 00:30:56,156 Speaker 1: Gera at Pushkin. Thanks to Mia Lobell, Julia Barton, Heather Faine, 471 00:30:56,316 --> 00:31:00,276 Speaker 1: Carlie mcgliori, Mackie Taylor, Eric Sandler, and Jacob Weisberg. You 472 00:31:00,276 --> 00:31:02,956 Speaker 1: can find me on Twitter and Noah Rfelden. I also 473 00:31:03,036 --> 00:31:05,356 Speaker 1: write a column for Bloomberg Opinion, which you can find 474 00:31:05,356 --> 00:31:09,396 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash feld To discover Bloomberg's originals 475 00:31:09,396 --> 00:31:13,036 Speaker 1: slate of podcasts, go to Bloomberg dot com slash Podcasts, 476 00:31:13,356 --> 00:31:15,436 Speaker 1: and if you liked what you heard today, please write 477 00:31:15,476 --> 00:31:18,476 Speaker 1: a review or tell a friend. This is Deep Background.